Speaker 1: What's going on?
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your support. So in a piece over at Iran International,
which is a London based anti Iranian regime outfit, All
rash Zor Robbie is the author, headline A pause with
opposing terms What Washington wanted, what Tehran demanded? He says
the details are still incomplete. With the positions that Tehran
and Washington have publicly tied to the ceasepe suggests not
a shared settlement so much as a temporary halt layered
over unresolved hostilities. The precise texts are still only partly visible,
if at all.
Speaker 1: Donald Trump came out today and.
Speaker 2: Said nobody knows what they're talking about on these points
that are being reported on the White House never publicly
confirmed the full contents of the US fifteen point proposal,
saying only that some reporting had quote elements of truth
but was not entirely factual, while Iranian state and semi
official media published a far more detailed public account of
Tehran's own terms, but enough has emerged to show how
far apart the two sides are. Public reporting on the
US proposal described a plan centered on rolling back Iran's
nuclear and missile capabilities, curbing support for allied armed groups,
and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's ten point plan
pointed in the opposite direction. It sought recognition of enrichment,
sweeping sanctions, relief, compensation, continued influence over Hojurormus, US military
withdrawal from the region, and an end to attacks on
Iran and its terrorist proxies, which, by the way, Iran
has said that that was part of their ten points
that are part of the ceasefire, that Israel has to
stop attacking has Bala in southern Lebanon, and both now
Trump and the Israelis have said, yeah, no, that's that
was not part of the deal at all, and they
have continued hammering Hasbala. Iran has continued hammering UAE Bahrain
trying to think there was Well, they basically hit like
every one of their neighbors. Still, so somebody asked in
the text line, why is that still occurring so many?
Speaker 1: There could be several different reasons.
Speaker 2: I don't know why, but one of the reasons could
be that because the Iranian government implemented their quote mosaic
strategy after the Twelve Day War, Operation Midnight Hammer. After that,
they decentralized authority, and so you have all of these
military units and the missile launcher groups and stuff that
are all around the country, and so they gave them
autonomy to make their own decisions in the event of
another kind of war that comes onto their territory. So
those individual units and launcher groups and all that stuff,
they're making these decisions without any kind of instruction from
the military leadership.
Speaker 1: So that's one possibility.
Speaker 2: In fact, it happens a lot of times in war
where after one side surrenders or something, right, they the
word doesn't get back to all of the troops and
they end up, you know, having some battle technically after
the surrender, so that it does happen.
Speaker 1: So that's one possibility.
Speaker 2: Another possibility is that Iran is lying right, that they
have no intention of agreeing to any of these terms,
and they're just pushing out this propaganda for their own
domestic audience, their supporters, and they're trying to demoralize people
into thinking that they got all these concessions right, they
got they got the Americans to surrender basically. Now, I
don't know how that's going to work out for them,
because at some point, if you're not going to come
to terms of any kind, then like the bombs are
going to start falling again, and then people are going
to be one ring. Will wait a minute, I thought
you said that we had come to terms and the
war was a defeat for the Americans, Like, why are
they still doing this stuff? And then I'm sure Iran
would say something like, oh, you know, they broke the
terms of the deal and now we will really fight
back by getting more of our stuff obliterated. So yeah,
I don't know. But again, as I said earlier, my
default position is I don't trust anything that Aron says,
particularly in press releases. You know, and we've got you know,
one example from the the most the press releases that
they issued about these terms and the ceasefire, and they
wrote it differently in English than they did in Farsi.
So and that's standard. They tell their domestic audience in
their shared language. They tell them things and then tell
us the opposite. So the back to the piece. The
distinction matters here because a ceasefire can stop the shooting
without answering the political question of what comes next. The
administration's stated war aims remained consistent through March and April.
Destroy Iran's missile arsenal and production capability, sever support for
the terrorist proxies, and ensure that Iran does not get
a nuclear weapon. And we heard a last hour in
his press conference, Pete Hegseth, Defense Secretary, he got up
there and he said, we know where the where the
enriched uranium is and we're watching it twenty four to seven,
and if they make any kind of a move to
get it, that would be unwise. The publicly reported US
plan and again remember the administration says that's not actually
the plan, Like some of that stuff is correct, but
some of it is not. So the US plans sought
to end enrichment inside Iran and dismantle the country's main
nuclear facilities. Tehran's published plan did the reverse Iranian media
versions of the ten point Framework explicitly demanded acceptance of
uranium enrichment, and some outlets reported that the phrase appeared
in the Farsi version, even though it was omitted from
some English versions that were shared publicly by Iranian media.
That is not a minor drafting dispute. It's a disagreement
over first principles. Also, the Trump administration said one of
its central objectives was to sever the support for Hezbala
and the Houtis and Hamas Right, Iran's public plan goes
the other direction. It called for an end to attacks
not only on Iran but on all of its quote allies,
and its ten point version included a halt to war
on all fronts, including Lebanon. And again, I point oubt
that both the Israeli go government and our government say no,
that's not part of this deal at all. The Prime
Minister of Israel on Twitter said Israel supports President Trump's
decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks, subject
to Iran immediately opening the straits and stopping all attacks
on the US, Israel, and countries in the region. Israel
also supports the US effort to ensure that Iran no
longer possesses a nuclear missile and terror threat to America, Israel,
Iran's Arab neighbors.
Speaker 1: And the world.
Speaker 2: The United States has told Israel that it is committed
to achieving these goals shared by the US, Israel, and
Israel's regional allies in the upcoming negotiations. The two week
ceasefire does not include Lebanon, and Trump told PBS the
same thing earlier this afternoon. The IDF has continued to
conduct major operations in Lebanon against Hasbala, striking more than
one hundred targets at one Back to the piece at
Iran International the sanctions sorry, let me do this horrormos
right Washington said this was a condition for the ceasefire.
Tehran public versions of their ten point plan framed continued
Iranian control over Horror Mooz as part of the post
war order itself. The Guardian and the AP, as well
as IRGC media, reported that the ceasefire allowed passage under
Iranian military oversight. The AP also reported that Iran and
Oman could charge transit fees under the arrangement that may
have eased an immediate crisis in shipping, but it does
not mean the two sides agree on the underlying principle.
But then later today Oman said that it has signed
agreements that prohibit charging ships passing through the waterway. So again, like,
what is the Iranian government pushing out here? What are
they saying?
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thanks a lot for hanging out going over this quote
unquote ceasefire, which considering how far apart the quote plans,
you know, the US had a fifteen point plan and
Iran's got a ten point plan, and then Trump announces like,
We've got these ten points from Iran, and that's that's
a good enough spot to start negotiations over. But a
ceasefire is dependent on the immediate reopening of the Strait
of hormones, which they have apparently not done as far
as I know. I think two tankers made it through today,
but they were both with they were both flying under
the or had flags flying from countries that are are
friendly to Iran. So like, we don't know, and until
the insurance companies say this is legit, Okay, we'll cover
you again. Until that happens, the ships aren't going to move.
So it's an insurance thing I talked about this last week, right,
So the straight is not pacified, not quote unquote open,
and open just means you have a you know, a
high certain certainty level that you're highly confident that you
can get through without some Iranian you know, military person
on the shore shooting a drone into the side of
your boat. Okay, that because they're like, I'm not even
convinced that they have mined the Straight. I don't, like,
I've not seen any reporting of any kind of mining
operation that was thwarted or mines that were identified, or
I've not seen anything like that. Their entire sub fleet
is sunk. I mean, there weren't that many, and they
were small, these little subs that were basically you know,
the only point of them was to go and attack tankers.
So they so what they've got is like some speed boats.
But mainly the problem is people on the shore up
on these cliffs that overlook the Straight and they're shooting
drones or you know, RPGs or something at the boats.
Speaker 1: So they got to stop doing that.
Speaker 2: Is it a lack of communication that has not you know,
they've not been told hey, we're in ceasefire stop because
of their mosaic strategy. How much time do we give
them for those orders to come down? I don't know.
But there is also because I'm looking at how far
apart these proposals are the fifteen points from US and
the ten points from them, and they're not lining up
at all, And nobody knows what Tehran may have agreed to.
So maybe something else is happening. Maybe this is a distraction, right,
Maybe this is an announcement to give a a believable
cover story for a period of time for why we're
not flying any more missions?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 2: Why is Israel and America not flying any more missions
over Iran?
Speaker 1: Is it because of the ceasefire?
Speaker 2: Or is it so this way we don't inadvertently kill
innocent Iranians who maybe have gotten a bunch of weapons
by this point and are able to rise up against
this mosaic pattern that they've got. Because now you've got
these small groups of you know, Iranian militia and they're
cut off, right, it's fragmented, and so particularly in the
sort of areas when you get outside of Tehran and
kolm Qom like, that's where the IRGC has the most power.
Outside of those areas, though, there are people that are
less in favor of the regime. So if you've got
some military units and such that are scattered all around
the country in areas where people loathe the regime? Is
this to give them some opportunities to start taking on
some of the militia? Does this give space for more desertions?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 2: People who flip allegiance and such the Iranian army, the
national Army, not the IRGC to some of those people
and leaders defect Like I don't know, but like, if
this is the cover story, why would we want to
suspend all of our flights? And the only reason I
can think is because you don't want to kill innocent
people on the ground for whatever this operation might be
going to. Another big difference is the sanctions and troop presence.
The us IS reporting suggested sanctions relief would come in
exchange for major Iranian concessions on enrichment, missiles, and proxy activity.
Tran's public plan demanded the lifting of primary and secondary sanctions,
an end to UN and IAEA measures compensation as well,
and the withdrawal of US forces from the region. Trump
described Iran's ten point proposal as a workable basis for negotiations,
but Washington did not accept any of the terms that
Tehran stated. The White House explicitly declined to confirm the
full contents of the US proposal, and the Associated Press
reported that key details of the ceasefire remain unclear even
after the announcement. The safer conclusion is narrow. Tehran published
its expectations in unusually concrete form, while Washington left more
of its own position in the realm of reported outlines
and official war aims. That leaves both sides room to
claim success. Let them save some face here. Washington says
military pressure forced Tehran towards talks. Tehran says resistance forced
Washington to step back from a wider assault and negotiate
from a different starting point. Either way, talks are slated
for Friday in Buckiston. All right, if you're listening to
this show, you know I try to keep up with
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Your subscription then not only helps my podcast, but it
also supports ground News as they make the media landscape
more transparent. Message from Russ, who says Pete the Iranian
translation of their ten point proposal and their press release
about it, the Iranian translation must be wrong. It's simply
not possible that they would tell us one thing, then
tell their side or conduct themselves in a totally different way.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that is their mo.
Speaker 2: It's why I don't believe anything the Iranian regime, says
Wes suggests instead of taking out power plants, take out
transmission towers. Same result, but easily repaired after regime change.
That sure, I think I answered this already.
Speaker 1: Seven oh four.
Speaker 2: If Iran's military is decimated, how did they shoot off
eighty three plus drones across the Middle East and Israel today?
As WBT News reported, honest question. I don't have TDS.
I voted for him, but I still question all leaders.
That's from Cheryl. So the military is comprised of different components.
You've got the Navy, the Air Force, and the army.
The Navy is decimated, the air Force is decimated, and
you still have the army and so, and you still
have the IRGC. The IRGC is separate from the army,
but they do, you know, work together on operations and such.
But you also have these missile launching groups, but a
lot of them are afraid to launch because in order
to you know, to launch, you got to kind of
come out of hiding and you've got to power the
thing up, and after we see it, it's like boom,
you're dead. They have a lot of drones, they've had,
I mean they've had thousands and thousands and thousands of drones.
Speaker 1: And ballistic missiles.
Speaker 2: So, yes, they have these different groups operating under their
mosaic strategy. They have autonomy. They are army or they
are IRGC and they're scattered all around the country. Still
they are still able to launch these attacks, which we
just heard in the newscast that they are claiming the
reason why they are launching the attacks is because Israel
continues to attack Hesbala in Lebanon, Israel and the White
House said that Lebanon was not part of the ceasefire deal.
Iran says it totally was. So again, like this is
very odd. There's, as I said before, like there is
some face saving kinds of things going on here. Probably right,
it's a big deal. You want to make sure that
for your domestic audience. You know, the Iranians don't want
to be seen as having lost. So they're going to
flex and they're going to you know, take whatever face
saving offer is given them. Sure, but I'm also wondering
if they were pressured from China, Pakistan, whatever, Turkey, whatever,
if they got pressure to take the ceasefire offer, and
the US is interested in doing that because they want
to do something else, whether it's take carg Island or
it's to give the Iranian people a chance to rise up.
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 2: Because Reza Pavlavi. Pavlavi the son of the Shah. He
was supposed to be making a speech to the Iranian
people today going into the evening, so not sure what
time that is here local. I think, well, it may
have already happened. But like that to me, doesn't seem
coincidental that we are going to suspend the air campaign
based on this quote ceasefire that Iran does not seem
to be doing any thing in compliance with, and then
the Pavla Viguy schedules and addressed to the Iranian people.
It seems like they may be looking to foment the
regime change from among the Iranian people.
Speaker 1: And that's just a guess. I'm not an expert.
Speaker 2: Let me see here, Mark says, I understand giving Sean time.
I blinked back watery eyes today as I actively listened
witnessing appropriate and gracious conversation.
Speaker 1: Thank you, Mark.
Speaker 2: I know we've talked a lot about the war in Iran,
but do you have any information on the Russia and
Ukraine war. I've not heard anything on the local news
or radio in a while. Well, Russia is from what
I the last I saw on that, I mean, Russia
has been working with Iran. They apparently sent them some
shipments of the drones, but they are bogged down with
you Ukraine and I saw a report I think yesterday
that uh that Ukraine had Russia has lost more territory
in the last year than they actually gained. They've they've
they've been losing some of the territory that they initially
stole that was from Kevy keV Seth says, hmm. One
reason the i RG is still fighting might be the
snake's head has been cut off, but the body still
wiggles around a bit. Yeah, that's possible. And you know,
there's also the fact that you got you know, these
same people that are in charge the House Parliament guy
the or the Speaker of the Parliament, the president uh
Komaney Junior. These are basically all the same people. But
you got to talk to somebody. And if this doesn't
work that you know, Trump has said like, well, then
we'll get some other people in there to talk. And
at some point, like if you keep doing the decapitation strikes,
eventually maybe you end up with somebody that can talk.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: And the other thing that came out yesterday was they
disclosed this what they call it ghost murmur technology that's
how they rescue the airmen. And they basically can find
anybody with a heart beat using telemetries something or other.
I have no idea how it works, but that's how
they found them. And if they can find anybody with
a heart beat like that should scare everybody in the
leadership or in troops, everybody, like they'll know we can
see basically everybody. We've got dominance in the air, We've
got drones flying around, we've got satellites like we're watching
all of this stuff. And so maybe this is a
pause to sit back and watch see what Iran does.
Gonna go move some stuff? Are they gonna try to
you know, reposition whatever? Don't know, we shall see. Here's
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Speaker 1: Let me get to the last bit of messages here.
Speaker 2: Hmmm, Paul says, is the Strait of Horrmuz open or not? Yes,
it's open, meaning there's no barrier. Ships can make their
way through the strait. However, the insurance companies canceled all
of their coverage for any ship going through the Strait
of Hormuz, and so none of the ships want to
roll through, and so that's been the hold up. But
then Trump came along. I went in depth on this.
Go to the peatpod dot com week episode. I did
an episode on this. It's still there, breaking down why
we haven't, why we haven't taken the steps in order
to secure that's a better term for to secure the
straight and foremost, because I believe we can. We became
an insurer for ships. Trump announced that they would put
like twenty billion dollars into a fund to cover insurance.
But they didn't do crew and liability coverage. They could have,
but they didn't do those too. They did huole, they
did cargo whatever, but they didn't do those two. All
they have to do is say we'll write coverage for
that too, but they haven't. Right, so why when you
start questioning why now, you need to go to as
I quoted the guy John Conrad from the maritime industry,
you start talking about how the industry runs and what
Trump has been trying to build from a naval perspective
since he got back into office, so I go in
depth on all of that stuff. So, yes, the waterway
is open, but the risk is so great that Iran
will shoot some drone into a hole that nobody wants
to move their boats through the waterway. Mott says, we
clearly misunderstood the treaty because someplace in the fine print
it must have said, we're going to bomb the hell
out of everybody, but you guys stop bombing us, right, Yeah,
I don't know, that's what I mean. Like all of this,
all of the confusion around what's actually been agreed to,
and the behaviors we have seen since the announcement, it
makes me think that this is deflection. This is in
service of something, some other operation that's going on. Dave says,
anybody that knows biblical history knows will never be at
peace with Iran. That's unless Democrats get back in power,
and I of course bow down to anybody and everybody
as long as you can stay in power.
Speaker 1: That is.
Speaker 2: Our best course of action is to decimate as thoroughly
as possible, to extend the period of time between now
and when we'll have to do it all over again. Yeah,
this is the strategy called mowing the lawn is what
Israel does, where you basically have to come back in
every so often and take out a bunch of their leadership. Again,
Paul wants to know my thoughts on a civilian uprising.
I don't know if it's going to be possible. It's
going to be very dangerous, very bloody. I'm sure ideally
you would want, you know, a bunch of military leaders
to defect basically and side with the people, because then
you are importing all of that knowledge and their hardware,
right so, and their they're training and expertise. Like from
the from the army perspective, ideally you would want, you know,
groups from the army to overthrow the IRGC. I don't
know what the potential for that is though. Also we
heard the other day, you know, Trump made the comment
about how the weapons that we had sent into the
Iranian people were supposed to go through a third party,
which everybody understood to be the Kurds, but the weapons
never made it there. The weapons got taken and he
was not happy about that. Or maybe the weapons did
make it in, right, Maybe the weapons did make it
in and he's just saying they didn't. So this way
the Iranians don't know that we've been arming their population,
so they'll be able to take it to the IRGC
and the Bassigi militants, the militia groups. And now the
suspension of an air campaign gives them on the ground
the opportunity to finally emerge from their homes where they've
been hiding and you know, sheltering in place and stuff,
to emerge and then hit some of these checkpoints and
whatever installations wherever they're setting up I mentioned yesterday. You've
got reports of these the guardsmen, sorry, the army, not
being paid, not being fed, you got defections, you got
besiege and IRGC they've been recruiting twelve year olds to
you know, man checkpoints and stuff. So like maybe that's
what this is. And the ceasefire isn't really a ceasefire.
It's just the suspension of the air campaign to make
it safer for the Iranian people to throw off their government.
Jeff says, the billions of dollars that Barack Obama and
Joe Biden gave Iran shir did buy them a lot
of weapons and drones.
Speaker 1: That is true. That is true. That is what they
used it for.
Speaker 2: They did not use it to to help their people.
They used it to fund their war machine and their
apocalyptic deaf cult ideology. Unfortunately but true. All right, that'll
do it for this episode.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for listening.
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