Speaker 1: Hey, it's Saturday, July eighteenth, and I'm Alex And here's
Speaker 1: the thing. By the end of this episode, you'll know
Speaker 1: why the crypto bill odds just cratered and what that
Speaker 1: actually means for your risk This week, quick gut check
Speaker 1: for you. If you've been tempted to jump in just
Speaker 1: because prices look calm, stick around before you hit confirm. Right,
Speaker 1: but first a quick word from our sponsor. Okay, So
Speaker 1: here's what's happening. And you know what. Polymarket traders just
Speaker 1: slash the Clarity Act passage odds to a record low,
Speaker 1: and the Senate delay is just dragging on stable coins
Speaker 1: Supply barely moved up less than one percent in twenty
Speaker 1: four hours. Fear and greed sits at twenty five deep
Speaker 1: in extreme fear. The regulatory clock is running out, and
Speaker 1: buyers are picky, not desperate, which means we're still in
Speaker 1: a bear market trend where institutions won't jump in without
Speaker 1: clear rules. That's the setup heading into the week. Markets
Speaker 1: were pretty quiet today. Bitcoin ticked up to about sixty
Speaker 1: four thousand dollars, a one percent move, Ethereum and Solana
Speaker 1: were basically flat. Total market cap is sitting around two
Speaker 1: point three trillion, up less than one percent. Stable coin
Speaker 1: supply is about three hundred nine billion up just a
Speaker 1: fraction defied. Total value locked held at seventy five billion,
Speaker 1: prices barely moved, which means the market is waiting for
Speaker 1: a catalyst, not chasing momentum. The takeaway is we're still
Speaker 1: in a bear market trend where small liquidity bumps don't flip.
Speaker 1: Risk appetite sentiment is still stuck in extreme fear. Derivatives
Speaker 1: is the strongest narrative today, down only a little over
Speaker 1: seven days. Derive is the top coin in that sector,
Speaker 1: up a few percent over seven days. One sector leads
Speaker 1: while the rest sit still. And here's the thing. Oil
Speaker 1: led the majors this week with a fifteen percent move
Speaker 1: over seven days, now trading around one hundred thirty dollars.
Speaker 1: The crypto read is that oil acts as a macro
Speaker 1: inflation signal. Its jump likely reflects tighter growth or supply expectations.
Speaker 1: That matters because interest rates, dollar strength, and liquidity still
Speaker 1: drive how crypto moves with the broader market. What would
Speaker 1: clarify the cause is confirm supply data or a fresh
Speaker 1: growth reading. The full macro regime walkthrough and what it
Speaker 1: means for your crypto allocation is in the monthly playbook
Speaker 1: Alpha Trial at tokenmetrics dot Com, Stripe and Swift are
Speaker 1: racing to control the next generation of global payments plumbing.
Speaker 1: The takeaway is simple. Whoever builds the rail owns the fees,
Speaker 1: and you know what. Crypto was supposed to kill the middleman,
Speaker 1: but instead the middleman is absorbing it. Keep an eye
Speaker 1: on how this plays out before you call it a win.
Speaker 1: Cardano handed core development to outside teams as part of
Speaker 1: a decentralization push. IOHK stepped back from running the show.
Speaker 1: Show that's the crypto version of a founder handing the
Speaker 1: keys to the community. Cardano rose three percent in twenty
Speaker 1: four hours, but its six billion market cap is a
Speaker 1: quiet pond making waves, which means traders are betting on
Speaker 1: the story, not execution yet. Visa launched a stable coin
Speaker 1: platform featuring a yield bearing token called OUSD for banks
Speaker 1: and FinTechs. The payments giant is building the rail instead
Speaker 1: of fighting it. Stable Coin supply is already sitting around
Speaker 1: three hundred and nine billion. Whoever controls the plumbing controls
Speaker 1: the fees. Robinhood wants to onboard ten million casual investors
Speaker 1: onto DeFi. Their DeFi total value locked is twelve billion,
Speaker 1: bigger than most faster networks. The question is whether users
Speaker 1: actually want self custody or if they just want the yield.
Speaker 1: Bank of America tapped new leaders to bridge crypto AI
Speaker 1: and traditional finance. When BOFE moves the pension funds watch,
Speaker 1: it's a structural singing that legacy finances crypto rails is permanent,
Speaker 1: which means institutional adoption is happening behind the scenes, even
Speaker 1: in this bear market. All right, before we get into
Speaker 1: the risks, quick word from our sponsor. Okay, we're back.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about what to watch for. And here's the deal.
Speaker 1: Sentiment is stuck in extreme fear at twenty five, with
Speaker 1: bitcoins still in a bear market, Buyers are picky, not desperate,
Speaker 1: and stable coin supply barely moved in twenty four hours.
Speaker 1: Moneyball data shows circulating stable coins fill about one point
Speaker 1: six billion over seven days, which means less cash on
Speaker 1: the sidelines translates to a weaker bid for any rally.
Speaker 1: Polymarket odds on the Clarity Act are at a record low,
Speaker 1: and installed bill removes the rule book institutions want. The
Speaker 1: takeaway is buyers stay picky until stable coin supply recovers
Speaker 1: for three straight days and fear and greed gets back
Speaker 1: above for forty five Over the next seven days, watch
Speaker 1: whether Polymarket Clarity Act odds stay at record lows. The
Speaker 1: Senate delay is the live risk here. If the odds recover,
Speaker 1: that changes the institutional setup. If they stay down, the
Speaker 1: bear market stays a weight, not a bottom, which means
Speaker 1: we're in a holding pattern until clarity returns. If you're
Speaker 1: not subscribed to the podcast yet, hit that subscribe button.
Speaker 1: It takes two seconds. This is educational content, not investment advice.
Speaker 1: Always do your own research. I'm Alex, See you next time.