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Speaker 1: The Communist uprising and your retirement. Zach Abraham joins, a

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chief investment officer of Bulwark Capital Management.

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Speaker 2: Will do this all courtesy of God Almighty.

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Speaker 3: But Todd Herman show is one disapproved by big pharma

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technocrats in tyrans everywhere from the high mountains of Free America.

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Here's the Emerald City exile, Todd Herman.

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Speaker 1: Today is the day the Lord has made, and these

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are the times to which God has decided we shall

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live in. Joining me now, my friend and brother, Chief

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investment Officer Bulwark Capital Management, Zach Abraham.

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Speaker 2: Zach will come back to the program.

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Speaker 4: Good to be back, man, especially on a day like today.

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I saw you on the schedule when I was looking

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at my calendar today and I thought, oh kind I

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forgot we were going today, And I was like, perfect this,

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perfect timing.

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Speaker 5: I need to rehash this with my guy Todd here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and man, last night, I wasn't hopeful for these elections.

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But listen to Mondami here. This is why he says

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he won. His speech was angry, it was vitriotic. Even

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Van Jones says this. But Zach listened to his brief explanation.

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Everyone and see if there's anything missing. He describes groups

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of people, but tell me if there's something missing in

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the groups of people he describes.

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Speaker 6: Thank you to those so often forgotten by the politics

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of our city who.

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Speaker 5: Made this movement their own.

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Speaker 6: I speak of Yemeny bodega owners and Mexican abuelas, Senegalese

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taxi drivers, and who's beck nurses, Trinidadian line coach and

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Ethiopian aunties.

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Speaker 5: Yes, aunties.

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Speaker 1: So that's an inside joke there, because he pretended that

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his aunt was afraid to wear the his job in

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New York, even though she never lived in New York,

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didn't or the his job. What's missing is description of

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these people and their nationalities.

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Speaker 5: Americans, same.

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Speaker 4: Here, and here's the This is so scary to me

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because it is so odd to see people treat this

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like moral morality and virtue. Where you go, guys, the

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inscription on our coin is ecluribus union out of many one,

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not out of one many. When you start dividing up

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a constituency into original native land groups, you destroy a civilization.

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You destroy it, you nuke the culture.

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Speaker 5: It is gone.

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Speaker 4: Because that's what everybody is missed about America. The reason

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immigration doesn't work right now is the reason you have

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a magnet for the exact wrong people. People are coming

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for handouts, not for freedom and opportunity.

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Speaker 5: Right. So the reason here's the other thing too.

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Speaker 4: I'd sit there and say, hey, if you guys want

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open borders, you could convince me.

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Speaker 5: All you do.

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Speaker 4: You gotta drastically increase criminal penalties for people that are

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here illegally and automatic deportations if they get caught.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 4: But you can have your open borders if you don't

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have any social programs.

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Speaker 2: Right, yep.

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Speaker 5: Because then.

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Speaker 4: When they talk about yesteryear and people coming through Ellis Island,

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the only people that came here were people looking for

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a fair shape.

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Speaker 5: That's it, yep, right, So you have this filter.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 4: We didn't get people's bumps, we didn't get people's ne'er

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do wells.

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Speaker 5: We got people's people that were.

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Speaker 4: Oppressed, and that all they wanted, no guarantee of outcome.

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They just wanted freedom of opportunity. That's all they were

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looking for, right, And so that was the unifying characteristic.

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Whether you were from Uzbekistan, Czechoslovakia, China, Singapore.

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Speaker 5: Or whatever, you were all here for the same reasons.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, And now that's not the case. And you sit there, Liver, No, No,

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what about Americans? Out of many one? What are you

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talking about? He is He's a classic example. And I

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don't think this is hyperbolic at all. He's the classic

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example of the enemy within. And I think it's insanity

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not to recognize that.

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Speaker 2: I totally agreed.

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Speaker 1: He was funded from outside the country at Zorro's funding him,

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his mom funding him, others.

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Speaker 2: That used to be illegal. And it used to be.

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Speaker 1: A controversy when we said African American or Chinese American

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or Italian American. I remember articles what about the hyphen

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in American? Now the hyphen's gone, So a nation's within nations,

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you know. And there's a football metaphor to this I

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want to share with you because I think it's an

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important one. Then I want to talk about some voting blocks.

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It's interesting the further back you get from retirement, the

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more likely you are to vote for the guy and

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one gender.

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Speaker 2: And I'm sorry what I did it again?

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry, Zach are attorneys here, okay, one of the

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sixty four genders. I apologize, Zach, And I don't hope

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I didn't misgender you.

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Speaker 2: Are you okay?

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Speaker 5: That's like seventy eight.

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Speaker 2: Now I'm sorry seventy eight.

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Speaker 5: I'm fired up.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So I'm going to make a football metaphor here

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in a second, because you just reminded me of something.

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We have a friend in common, you and I. Steve Anderson,

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the guy who runs Renewed Healthcare, the manager partner in there.

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So guess who's going and getting stem cells? Is Steve

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for lumbar stuff? And yeah he is. He gets thumb

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cells tomorrow, his own stuff. I don't know about you,

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but there are people in the medical world. They don't

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use their own stuff. Think of a back surgeon. If

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a backsurgeon tweaked his back golfing over a long period

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of time and Steve golfs all the time, do you

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think he's going to go, I want surgery first first

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cut me. See in Mexico, they don't do that. They

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do the least invasive thing first. So I point this

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out because the guy is using his own stuff. These

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are the stem cells that they get from umbilical cords

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and plus to Z only using bbilical cord stuff from women,

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they get to know. They actually get to know the

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women they tracked the health of the of the women

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and the babies during pregnancy and afterwards.

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Speaker 2: So just say a little prayer for our friend Steve.

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Speaker 1: He's going in for this tomorrow and he'll get his

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procedure done, and if he has the same success you

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and I had, he'll be back at the game, in

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your case of golf, even better than before. In my case,

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the game of a CrossFit even better before. It's renewed

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r E and U E dot healthcare That Laura Lumbar

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stuff man bread and butter for those guys.

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Speaker 2: Renewed dot healthcare. Do you remember when, oh gosh, I remember,

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I'm forgetting the name of the quarterback that took the

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Green Bay Packers.

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Speaker 1: Back to the Super Bowl Brett Farm. Do you remember

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when they decided to build a super Bowl quality team

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and there was a guy named Reggie White. Do you

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remember Reggie?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it came from the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, defensive lineman. He was loved in the in the NFL.

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Everybody loved Reggie. People who competed against him, they loved them.

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People played with them. He and got together and said

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we're building a super Bowl quality team.

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Speaker 2: Farv took a pay cut.

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Speaker 1: I'll never forget this because he wanted to win a

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Super Bowl, so he takes a pay cut to get.

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Speaker 2: Better offensive linemen.

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Speaker 1: And Reggie White went there because he could. He was,

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you know, towards the highlights, the ends of his career,

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but still great master. They created this team and suddenly

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you had players from around the league go and I'm

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going to Green Bay. I got to get to Green Bay.

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And it's because they wanted to win a Super Bowl.

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It's the inverse of our immigration system. And look what happened.

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They won a Super Bowl. They became a dominant team.

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This is the history of America. We built a system

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that worked. People said, I want to be part of

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that system. It was pursuit of happiness, not guarantee of

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outcome life liberty, pursuit of happiness. It was getting government

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out of the way when we brought people in by choice,

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not through slavery. And even after slavery, look what happened.

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They succeeded for the most part. So what you've said

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of turning the door around this, do you remember when

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this happens, who actually.

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Speaker 2: Made this happen. And let me, first of all with

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the football things, like your football.

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Speaker 4: Coach, Yeah, yeah, yeah, no, no, I mean yes, I mean

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it read he I wouldn't say it was at the

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end of his career.

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Speaker 5: I mean he was at the height of his powers. Man,

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the Minister of Defense, he was, he was the guy.

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Speaker 2: Was he that he was that good at that time?

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Speaker 5: Oh?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, because he could play up and down the line.

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I mean he could play anywhere.

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Speaker 5: In the end, he had this he had this power

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move where he would he would.

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Speaker 4: Uh, he would fake outside and then use his left

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hand as a club and he would like with one hand,

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would knock over three hundred and twenty pounds offensive line man. Yes,

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and you just sit there and you're like, you know,

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just unbelieve. Yeah, the guy's and he was Nordain minister,

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that's right.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So that added I think Tenna's humility.

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Speaker 1: You know what, let's take a little bit extra money,

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less money all of us, Let's build a fantastic team.

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I remember that move that they tried to teach, that move,

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the Regy white club move.

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Speaker 5: Nobody could do it.

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Speaker 2: No, no, not like he did it.

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Speaker 1: So that's the inverse. Do you remember when who in

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the Democrat Party made this decision to change your immigration philosophy?

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Speaker 5: I don't not specifically.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Teddy Kennedy.

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Speaker 5: Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, the lion of the Senate.

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Speaker 1: Right, So he decided to change the philosophy of American

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immigration from people seeking to pursue to have life, to

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pursue liberty, to people who wanted handouts, to people who

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needed to be rescued, and not just because we're taking

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some refugees. Okay, we're five percent of the world's population.

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We've taken in twenty percent of the displaced people's Teddy

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Kennedy decided to do this and bring in this massive

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change immigration. And can do you think there's a way

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out of this now? Like, I mean your numbers, guy,

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you think there's a way out of this?

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Speaker 5: It's getting sticky? Yeah?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I honestly think you and everre having a conversation offline,

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and well, I would ask that people please listen to

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what I say because in no way am I waving

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the white flag. But we were talking about the frog

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and water cognitive dissonance, and I do I do think

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you're at a place where, in places like California and

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in places like New York, I think pushing back against

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this stuff right now is feudal. I think the only

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way we win this is by I think in a

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weird way, it might be a really good.

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Speaker 5: Thing that he won that election last night.

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Speaker 4: Mom Dommy specifically, I think that it highly increases the

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likelihood that the governor they elect is Republican because you know,

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I know this will come as a big surprise. But

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the more mom Domy is able to put his policies

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in place, it will it will show itself for what

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it is really quickly, right, and it's not going to

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take long. The other thing is that you're going to

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see it. You're going to see it. It'll be interesting

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to see what the final toll is. You're going to

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see it act a wealth out of there big time.

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Speaker 1: Do you think this is a FATA company? I saw

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you put on Twitter. You think the PJS is all

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in the PJ class? You guys with private jets, you

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call them pjs.

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Speaker 4: I do, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, that's the inside terminal

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R right, right, you got to be part of the club.

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Speaker 5: You got to be part of the club. Uh so.

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And I am entirely joking, So.

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Speaker 4: I do think that, and I think a lot of

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them will do it because you know, pardon my expression,

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but kind of f you that's why, right, I think

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that there are a lot of wealthy people in New

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York that are very moderate politically and that see this

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as the lunacy that it is and are willing to

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sacrifice living where they want to live for a few years.

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Speaker 5: To make a point that that is.

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Speaker 4: That is my belief, having talked to people there, having

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heard a lot of people, you know, in my business

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industry discuss what.

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Speaker 5: They're going to do.

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Speaker 4: A lot of them won't divest themselves of their assets

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or their or their houses there. What they will do

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is they will just stay out of New York for

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the requisite amount of time, do not have to pay

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tax in the city.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so they live in Florida for the number of days,

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which is what half a year plus a day.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I believe that's the case.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and then you can't be there for more than

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two weeks at a time because then you start.

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Speaker 5: You know, so you got to check in and check out.

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I think a lot of them are going to do that.

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I think a lot.

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Speaker 4: I don't think. I know a lot of them already have.

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And I think this is gonna flush out. Like I said,

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I think I think this one will precipitate more of

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that because it's not so much a dollars and cents

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decision at this point. I think for a lot of people,

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even the people to consider themselves on the left, and

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I've heard several of them say that where they're like no, no, no, no, no,

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there's a bridge too far right. Even Clinton didn't support

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him for per office. Yeah, so you know, I think

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that they're gonna lose was a big amount of their

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tax revenue. I think they're going to be in big

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trouble financially really quickly. I would expect if he follows

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through with what he says, i'd expect the city to

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turn into total chaos.

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Speaker 1: And this is what the London model, which has happened

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in London, and people say, Okay, you're gonna make this

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like London. Now, I agree with you in some ways,

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it's best to get out of the way.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 1: It's the stupid easy metaphor is you come home and

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your teenage son done broke into the whiskey cabinet, had

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a couple of shots of whiskey.

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Speaker 2: You like you like that?

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Speaker 1: Well, it's gets just true. Yeah, let's let's just you

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can cheach you a couple more. I mean, don't give

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your kid alcohol poisoning. But I'll take a couple more

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shots and when you see him start to get woozy,

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now is just one last one son, right, Yes, and

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I spoke some stogies too, and again you're there, and

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there's something to make sure he doesn't, you know, die

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and choke on his vomit and do a bellution and

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all that. But it is a way to let them

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have this, did you know DOMI said he'll use the

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long arm tax if people do that. That he thinks

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he can reach into Ford and take moneies even if

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they're not living there.

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Speaker 2: And he can't. Well he'll try it.

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Speaker 5: Oh, I'm sure he will, but it'll get struck down.

296
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I mean he can't. He can't. He can't impose that

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for people that aren't living in the state.

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Speaker 2: I mean, good luck, I did the funniest thing. We'll

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go ahead.

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Speaker 5: No, and I mean you can't.

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Speaker 4: I just I don't think there's any way that that

302
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would pass on the legal Even if you own a

303
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home there, you're paying property tax, so they can't say, well,

304
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they're taking a bit, No they're not. If they're not

305
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living there, you can't say that they're using the services.

306
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They're using things, they're paying property tax. They're still in

307
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net benefit to your to your city because they're paying

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that property tax.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, whatever, I don't think.

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Speaker 4: And I furthermore, I think that a lot of them

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will probably if he is somehow able to do that,

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I think a lot of them will divest of their

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New York assets. And I think you'll see a massive

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hit to New York real estate and it will continue

315
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to devalue and they will step back in and buy

316
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that property up when the city regains its its mind.

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Speaker 1: So putting on the investor cap a chief investment officer cap,

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is this something that you wanted to be ahead of,

319
00:14:59,879 --> 00:15:03,240
like shorting? Can you short New York real estate? I'm

320
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sure there's funds that are made up of East Coast

321
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New York real estate. And I want you to think

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about this for a second, the opportunities that exist, and

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we need to talk about some of the demographics. And

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then these sort of taxes as lawnmark taxes will do

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this in Zach Abraham, did you hear this? This will

326
00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:19,960
amuse you. Did you know that in Canada there's a

327
00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:22,639
guy who remember Parliament and he wants to be able

328
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to refer to quoting the Bible and a sermon as

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hate speech.

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Speaker 2: This is a true thing. This is a true thing.

331
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He is seeking the ability to remove what's called the

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good faith waiver in Canada. If you're charged with hate speech,

333
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which you say you're speaking in good faith, you can

334
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have a defense and the Crown may grant you an indulgence.

335
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There's a movie called Disciples.

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Speaker 1: In the Moonlight and this is from Angel Studios, and

337
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it examined a group of Americans. This was supposed to

338
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be far off in the future, but it's like next week.

339
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I mean, this could be New York tomorrow. They're smuggling Bibles,

340
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and they're smuggling in utterly you know.

341
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Speaker 2: Ways.

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Speaker 1: I did not figure this out until the end of

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the movie. I love the Ultimate Easter Egg because I

344
00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:08,480
remember saying to my wife, Oh, they left their Bibles behind.

345
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Speaker 2: All up, they're getting tray. Oh wait, this guy got killed.

346
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He left the Bible behind. You didn't.

347
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Speaker 1: And then I get to that idiot, Oh my gosh,

348
00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:19,399
this is beautiful. Light shines in the darkness. Darkness is

349
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not over. Comment go watch this.

350
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Speaker 2: It's it's Angel dot com, slash Herman, Angel dot com,

351
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slash Herman and.

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Speaker 1: Join the Angel Guild. That way, you're not just sitting

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00:16:27,039 --> 00:16:31,240
there watching, You're helping empower brave Christian filmmaking. It's angel

354
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dot com slash Herman. The demographics on this sack. We'll

355
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get to this in a second. But have you ever

356
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been a hit with Have you ever been hit with

357
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one of those taxes from a state you don't live

358
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in and they call this a franchise tax? Have you

359
00:16:44,279 --> 00:16:47,080
ever had that arrive in the mail of the franchise

360
00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:47,519
tax thing?

361
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Speaker 5: No, I haven't, I've never Yeah.

362
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Speaker 1: No, okay, So way back in the day, I did

363
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a consulting gig for Comedy Central and they brought me down.

364
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Friend of mine, Liz, brought me into this deal. I

365
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was in California for two two weeks. One week, get down,

366
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going to investigate, another week to go back and present

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what we suggested they do. They paid us a good

368
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amount of money for this project, really good amount of money,

369
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and get home, you know, report that to my taxes.

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I get a letter from the state of California, you know,

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a sitcom tax like what I worked on a project there,

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I owe you income tax. So you know how I

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approached this is I wrote them back a letter and said,

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I am prepared to pay this tax.

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Speaker 2: I have set aside the funds.

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Speaker 1: Please introduce me to my representative so that I can

377
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have some questions about this, because since I'm being taxed,

378
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certainly I have a representative in the state legislature. Just

379
00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:42,920
please introduce me to that person. The minute I meet

380
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my representative, I will write a check for these taxes

381
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and send it to you. They never came up, They

382
00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:51,119
never said a thing. It just went away. How could

383
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they kind of don't have a representative.

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Speaker 4: I wonder why pro athletes pay that tax, because every

385
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time a pro athlete plays a game in California.

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Speaker 5: They pay that tax. But you're you're right, I've never

387
00:18:00,799 --> 00:18:03,799
thought about that angle. It's unconstitutional. It's taxation without representation.

388
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Speaker 2: Blatantly inconstitutional.

389
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Speaker 5: Yeah, if you can't vote in the state of California,

390
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you can't pay in come tax.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, blatantly in constitutional, every single one of the right.

392
00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:13,920
By the way, if you're an nflation should you and

393
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you take advantage of this, I'll give you my email address.

394
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Speaker 2: You can send me a.

395
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Speaker 1: Just a up because it's okay to take a rank

396
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on something like that. Right, that's what agents do.

397
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Speaker 5: Well. I mean they should. Yeah, I mean they should.

398
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Speaker 4: They should be paying me. I mean I can't wait. Yeah,

399
00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:28,440
I mean if they yeah, I mean well, I mean

400
00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:30,400
you know you could. You could throw a little my

401
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:32,559
way too. I mean, this is a collaborative process.

402
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Speaker 5: We're a poet. We're doing it together.

403
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Speaker 2: Man, right, No, I wouldn't be anywhere near where I.

404
00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:41,640
Speaker 1: Am without you, So of course I'll give you a

405
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percentage in. That is the demographicsir Zach. You want to

406
00:18:45,279 --> 00:18:50,000
talk about fear, so you can look at men. This

407
00:18:50,079 --> 00:18:53,839
is Arua Madami men eighteen twenty nine young guys uh

408
00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:59,119
sixty eight percent men thirty thirty four sixty six men's

409
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forty five sixty four or forty five sixty five plus

410
00:19:02,039 --> 00:19:07,039
thirty five four mandami women, Zach, eighteen to twenty nine,

411
00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:11,240
eighty four percent. You look at Mike Cheryl women eighty

412
00:19:11,279 --> 00:19:14,160
one percent, eighteen to twenty nine. You look at Jay

413
00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:17,920
Jones women eighteen to twenty nine, seventy six percent. You

414
00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:22,519
look at Abigail Spaanberger, who's insane, women eighteen.

415
00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:23,200
Speaker 2: To twenty nine percent.

416
00:19:24,039 --> 00:19:28,680
Speaker 1: Now what do you think? What under what delusion delusions

417
00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:29,559
do you think they're voting?

418
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Speaker 4: I think it's I think it's really interesting that this

419
00:19:39,519 --> 00:19:42,759
is happening at the same time that you have this

420
00:19:42,839 --> 00:19:46,720
kind of unprecedented amount of people in that same age

421
00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:51,839
group that aren't dating, aren't married, aren't aren't having families.

422
00:19:53,519 --> 00:19:58,640
And when you look at the data, it's very abnormal, right,

423
00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:01,839
Like it sticks out like a sort And in a

424
00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:05,960
scenario like that with cultural breakdown, I think that the

425
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:08,400
men have a big part of the blame.

426
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Speaker 5: I think way too many men are not, for a variety.

427
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Speaker 4: Of different reasons, attractive partners, and I think when that happens,

428
00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:21,480
I think that women and I don't mean this in

429
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a sexist way, but I think the average woman, especially

430
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between the age of eighteen to twenty nine, start probably

431
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:28,839
looking for some of those things that they would previously

432
00:20:28,839 --> 00:20:31,880
look for in a partner. In elected officials, So they

433
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start looking at Yeah.

434
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Speaker 5: They start viewing politics more through it.

435
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Speaker 4: And I don't mean this in a sex of sexist

436
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:40,000
way at all, but I think they start looking at

437
00:20:40,279 --> 00:20:45,559
politics and they start ascribing more gravitas to it than

438
00:20:45,599 --> 00:20:47,119
they should, in the sense that I think that they

439
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:52,799
started tying and attaching emotional emotions to it, feelings of security,

440
00:20:53,279 --> 00:20:56,200
looking for government to play. I mean, just think about it,

441
00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:59,319
like I mean, if you're a twenty seven year old

442
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woman and you're married to a really great guy. It's

443
00:21:03,039 --> 00:21:05,480
a really good provider, protector, you know that kind of stuff,

444
00:21:05,519 --> 00:21:08,000
and good husband, and then you're looking at a twenty

445
00:21:08,039 --> 00:21:10,960
seven year old girl who's single, who can't find a

446
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good guy. I think it's kind of illogical to not

447
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,119
think that their worldview is going to be somewhat different.

448
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Speaker 5: They're probably going to be voting for.

449
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Speaker 4: Different things, and it's only natural, I think, for the

450
00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:25,839
twenty seven year old girl who's not married.

451
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Speaker 5: To look to government to play some of that role. Right.

452
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Speaker 4: And then when you look at how the fact that

453
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:35,519
if you look at Gen Z's and millennials, the other

454
00:21:35,559 --> 00:21:38,759
thing I think is pretty hard to argue is that

455
00:21:38,799 --> 00:21:43,559
they are probably the least educated generation. Maybe not in

456
00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:46,119
some ways as far as book sense, but as far

457
00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:49,599
as street sense. You know, the amount of jobs they've

458
00:21:49,599 --> 00:21:51,960
had by the time they're twenty one, right, just life

459
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,839
experience and things like this. I think you're looking at,

460
00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:57,640
you know, one of the least hard working for a

461
00:21:57,680 --> 00:21:59,720
variety of reasons, and I don't think they'll always stay

462
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:03,240
that way, but one of the least independents, one of

463
00:22:03,319 --> 00:22:06,160
the most the most caudal generations.

464
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Speaker 5: In US history.

465
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Speaker 4: And I think you add all that stuff into those dynamics,

466
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:14,039
and and I think it makes perfect sense. And the

467
00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:16,200
other thing I think that you have in here is

468
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:20,799
that you have it's really ironic, right, The stability that

469
00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:25,039
free markets and capitalism have provided is the very thing

470
00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:29,359
that makes these people feel comfortable voting this way. Yeah, right,

471
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:33,279
it's it's because yeah, because no no election outcome has

472
00:22:33,319 --> 00:22:36,400
ever meant a negative change to their lives, right, I

473
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,000
think of right, really right. I mean you'll see it

474
00:22:39,079 --> 00:22:42,240
on the streets, lamenting and freaking out and protesting and

475
00:22:42,319 --> 00:22:46,000
screaming from their nether regions, you know, at Trump.

476
00:22:46,279 --> 00:22:49,240
Speaker 5: But in reality, what really happened nothing.

477
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:52,039
Speaker 4: There was no there was no negative consequence except a

478
00:22:52,079 --> 00:22:53,000
reduction in crime rate.

479
00:22:53,279 --> 00:22:54,559
Speaker 2: Yep, there's been.

480
00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:58,440
Speaker 1: There's there's a poll that NBC News put out and

481
00:22:58,519 --> 00:23:00,680
they snuck in a question here that I don't think

482
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:05,160
they know they snuck in, But they asked about the

483
00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:10,000
outlawing of having a miscarriage, because you know, it's the

484
00:23:10,079 --> 00:23:11,079
legal of a miscarage.

485
00:23:12,039 --> 00:23:13,319
Speaker 2: Well you know that, No, I don't, No, No, you

486
00:23:13,319 --> 00:23:16,240
can get cross having a miscarriage because it counts an abortion,

487
00:23:16,559 --> 00:23:19,200
because you're going to be denied adnai. So you're not

488
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:21,039
gonna be able to have the baby if you have

489
00:23:21,039 --> 00:23:23,519
a miscarriage removed, if you can report that it's counter

490
00:23:23,519 --> 00:23:25,400
as an abortion and you're gonna be forced to carry

491
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:27,319
around the dead feetus in your body. You did not that.

492
00:23:28,039 --> 00:23:30,680
Speaker 1: No, there were twenty eight percent of women who counted

493
00:23:30,759 --> 00:23:32,240
that as among their concerns.

494
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:35,599
Speaker 4: Look, I'm sitting there listening to interviews with people on

495
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:39,480
the streets and they're literally sitting there talking about mom

496
00:23:39,599 --> 00:23:44,519
Dami's policies and talking about government run grocery stores and

497
00:23:44,559 --> 00:23:45,319
how that's going.

498
00:23:45,319 --> 00:23:46,359
Speaker 5: To lower prices.

499
00:23:46,759 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 4: I know, and it's I mean, everybody listening to us

500
00:23:51,039 --> 00:23:55,359
knows this. But that literally is like watching somebody take

501
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:57,799
their shirt off, walk to the end of the dock

502
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:01,119
and fully believe they can jump in lake without getting wet.

503
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:05,000
Speaker 2: I know what I mean, I know, and it's it's right.

504
00:24:05,839 --> 00:24:08,559
Speaker 1: But what they've done, the Democrat Party one day, Zach,

505
00:24:09,319 --> 00:24:11,720
what they've done to women eighteen to twenty nine years old.

506
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:12,759
Speaker 2: What they've done.

507
00:24:12,799 --> 00:24:15,680
Speaker 1: There's a Now there's a new site called wine mom Antifa,

508
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:21,839
and it is tracking otherwise, ordinary moms who've gone from

509
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:26,960
sipping wine to flirting with and getting into Antifa because

510
00:24:27,039 --> 00:24:31,599
they believe that same sex attracted people and black and

511
00:24:31,599 --> 00:24:33,720
brown people, the same sex attracted people are going in

512
00:24:33,759 --> 00:24:38,759
the camps, and black and brown people citizens are being removed.

513
00:24:38,759 --> 00:24:41,960
They believe that Trump is removing black and brown American

514
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:44,240
citizens driving through cities because they're black and brown.

515
00:24:44,319 --> 00:24:45,759
Speaker 2: Have you had the talk with their kids yet? If

516
00:24:45,759 --> 00:24:46,599
they see dhs?

517
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,119
Speaker 1: But wait, I'm sorry, they have the country club card, right,

518
00:24:51,519 --> 00:24:53,240
I'm sorry because if they'll just pull out, No, here's

519
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:55,640
my country club, golf card, my swimming.

520
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:59,839
Speaker 2: Oh okay, sorry, private school card? No, sorry, no that look.

521
00:25:00,559 --> 00:25:02,039
Speaker 5: And this goes back to where we're at.

522
00:25:02,079 --> 00:25:05,160
Speaker 4: I mean, and I think social media ironically, like I've

523
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:08,039
said before, I think we'll look back at social media

524
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,440
and see it as the tower of Babel, meaning we

525
00:25:10,519 --> 00:25:13,160
all marveled at our technological advances and we can all

526
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:16,960
speak the same language, and then this technological advance blew

527
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:20,880
all that up and and and it nuked communication because

528
00:25:21,279 --> 00:25:24,440
you have I mean, it is so we we've had

529
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:27,960
political debates in this country since the beginning of its inception, right,

530
00:25:28,039 --> 00:25:32,400
what we have not done is had arguments about things

531
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:37,480
that are so obviously true or false, like somebody having

532
00:25:37,519 --> 00:25:40,359
a penis being a woman or having a baby like you,

533
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:43,079
And you look around and you go, this is so nuts.

534
00:25:43,079 --> 00:25:46,400
But this is literally how cultures tare themselves apart. Right,

535
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:48,640
You've got these people that believe all these things that

536
00:25:48,799 --> 00:25:53,759
just aren't true and and and it it happens through

537
00:25:53,799 --> 00:25:57,160
the ability or or lack of education of the populace

538
00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:59,559
and the ability for those in the PA like that's

539
00:26:00,079 --> 00:26:02,240
I can't believe that nobody talks about that.

540
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:05,640
Speaker 5: We talk about hate speech or inflammatory speech. What about

541
00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:06,279
what's said.

542
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:09,039
Speaker 4: On the media every single day? Well what about when

543
00:26:09,279 --> 00:26:13,240
calling these people fascists and all? And you know, how

544
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:16,680
is that not inflammatory speech? And you've got, like I said,

545
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:18,599
you've got forty to fifty percent of the country that's

546
00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:22,799
running around that believes somethings that is objectively not true.

547
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:26,960
And it's crazy, especially coming.

548
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:28,599
Speaker 5: From the people to talk about misinformation.

549
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 4: This gets us back to talking about none of this

550
00:26:32,559 --> 00:26:34,920
makes sense unless you look at it through a spiritual ends.

551
00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:37,799
Speaker 2: Oh no, I hate to no, it's not forgottedness.

552
00:26:39,039 --> 00:26:42,880
Speaker 4: No, no, no, no.

553
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:44,359
Speaker 5: No, you can't say, can't say, can't reference the Bible right.

554
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:49,519
Speaker 1: And God told us Expect times like this, wars and

555
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:54,400
rumors of wars. Expect people who ignore sound teaching and

556
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:58,839
chase after false teachers, who wish tickle. They're wishing their

557
00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:02,920
itching ears. And what we're seeing is people lording their

558
00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:06,759
power over others, the hearts of many growing cold, people

559
00:27:06,839 --> 00:27:09,519
who want to claim to speak of God, but none

560
00:27:09,559 --> 00:27:11,920
of the majesty and of the divinity, et cetera. And

561
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:14,359
that is what we're seeing.

562
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:16,079
Speaker 4: The other thing that the other thing I think is

563
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:20,240
interesting here is it's not normalized.

564
00:27:20,279 --> 00:27:21,640
Speaker 5: I think for one of the groups it is.

565
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:24,480
Speaker 4: But if you look at the left, you look at

566
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:27,160
this whole, you know, woke and all that nonsense.

567
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:31,079
Speaker 5: Who are the two groups? There are two groups that

568
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:32,839
are not afforded the same.

569
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:39,079
Speaker 4: Rights deferences, all that kind of stuff. There are two

570
00:27:39,079 --> 00:27:41,920
groups that for some reason have been castigated and do

571
00:27:42,039 --> 00:27:44,240
not get any protection from the last.

572
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:45,400
Speaker 5: Do you know what those two groups are?

573
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 2: I can guess.

574
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:50,319
Speaker 5: Christians and Jews.

575
00:27:50,759 --> 00:27:53,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, and white yeah, yeah.

576
00:27:53,519 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, especially if you're white.

577
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:58,200
Speaker 4: That's the other thing that weirds me out is when

578
00:27:58,319 --> 00:28:03,079
you see a rise, an irrational rise, frankly, on both

579
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:06,319
sides for political aisle, which I find revolting of anti

580
00:28:06,319 --> 00:28:11,279
Semitites and anti Semitism and simultaneously a turn against Christianity.

581
00:28:11,799 --> 00:28:12,319
Speaker 5: The game is.

582
00:28:12,319 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 2: Afoot m hm.

583
00:28:13,839 --> 00:28:17,519
Speaker 4: Right when you see those things, you are not fighting

584
00:28:17,559 --> 00:28:18,960
principalities of this world.

585
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:21,759
Speaker 1: No, And look, you can critique the government of Israel

586
00:28:21,799 --> 00:28:23,480
all day long and you don't have to become a

587
00:28:23,559 --> 00:28:24,000
Jew hater.

588
00:28:24,839 --> 00:28:27,480
Speaker 5: Yeah right, yes, it's it that.

589
00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:30,319
Speaker 4: I mean, that's like saying I mean, for instance, it's

590
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:34,480
like saying I hate I hate Carnie, and therefore I

591
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:35,359
hate all Canadians.

592
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:36,680
Speaker 5: Ridians are really nice people.

593
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 2: Yeah right, I'm not anti Canadian exactly.

594
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:44,079
Speaker 1: Okay, I want to ask you about buying signals near

595
00:28:44,119 --> 00:28:50,119
the apocalypse, So when we're getting towards the end days,

596
00:28:50,279 --> 00:28:53,319
because just now less minute, we took one step closer

597
00:28:53,319 --> 00:28:53,880
to the end days.

598
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 2: No one knows the day at the time. But I

599
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:57,160
want to ask you this because we're talking about on

600
00:28:57,240 --> 00:28:58,240
DOMMI these signals.

601
00:28:58,279 --> 00:29:01,079
Speaker 1: The culture war continues. What's gonna happen New York? I

602
00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:03,440
was thinking about Ken you short New York realistate, could

603
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:05,160
you have done this? So we'll talk about this in

604
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:07,880
a second. Can I give you guys a classic. I've

605
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:09,519
been talking about some of the bone Frog roast, the

606
00:29:09,559 --> 00:29:13,839
absolute classic. It's simply the bone Frog Roast Sons of Valor.

607
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:17,599
It says in Fighting for Freedom. Of course, this is

608
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:19,920
God Country team on it. And this is what Tim

609
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,039
wrote about this. Bonefrog Coffee dot Com. When you go there,

610
00:29:22,119 --> 00:29:25,720
use code Todd at checkout introducing Sons of Valor, especially

611
00:29:25,799 --> 00:29:29,119
coffee brand a blue that a brew that embodies the strength, resilience,

612
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:32,559
and courage of all the elite Navy Seals. This organtically

613
00:29:32,599 --> 00:29:35,599
grown gourmet coffee Blend delivers a coffee experience as bold

614
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,079
and fearless as the words it's named after. Tim gets

615
00:29:38,079 --> 00:29:39,839
to write this because he was a seal did three

616
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:41,839
deployments on her behalf, so he's not just making this

617
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:45,440
up with notes of Baker's Chocolate, Graham Cracker and earthy

618
00:29:45,519 --> 00:29:49,000
undertones are Sons of Valor Blend is a medium to

619
00:29:49,079 --> 00:29:51,440
dark roast that offers rich and complex flavors from Central

620
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:53,359
and South America. By the way, the cover on this

621
00:29:53,519 --> 00:29:56,480
is so cool, and that's an actual Navy seal.

622
00:29:56,519 --> 00:29:59,039
Speaker 2: Tim's told me about this. Go to Bonefrog Coffee dot

623
00:29:59,079 --> 00:30:01,359
Com slash Todd use promo cotad to get tempera sent

624
00:30:01,359 --> 00:30:03,599
out of your first purchase. Try Sons of Valor or

625
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:07,039
subscription coffee. It's Bonefrog Coffee dot com slash todd.

626
00:30:07,279 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 1: All right, So here's where we're at. Were wars and

627
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:14,519
neervers of wars. We have the uprisings against the Christian faith.

628
00:30:15,279 --> 00:30:19,440
We've got uprisings against the Bible attempting to stop out

629
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:24,240
God's word. We have countries being formed within countries, division

630
00:30:24,279 --> 00:30:28,559
on top of division, and now an avowed so called

631
00:30:28,599 --> 00:30:32,799
democratic socialists, funded from people outside of our country here

632
00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:34,200
to defund.

633
00:30:33,799 --> 00:30:37,519
Speaker 2: The police, seize property, take.

634
00:30:37,839 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 1: Apartments from others, give to some, and government grocery stores

635
00:30:41,319 --> 00:30:44,839
now putting on the chief investment officer hat at Bulwark

636
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:48,319
Capital Management A Could I have shorted New York rial

637
00:30:48,319 --> 00:30:50,359
the States and be fixing to make a big amount

638
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:50,640
of money?

639
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 2: Could I have done that?

640
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 5: Maybe in some way, shape or form.

641
00:30:56,480 --> 00:31:00,599
Speaker 4: There's probably some opportunities out there, but generally speaking, no,

642
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:03,880
it's and it's really it's really hard to short real

643
00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:06,039
estate on that tide of a regional.

644
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:06,880
Speaker 5: Basis, Okay, you know what I mean?

645
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:09,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, so that that would be tough, but I but

646
00:31:09,319 --> 00:31:11,240
I do think that there are other ways to benefit

647
00:31:11,279 --> 00:31:12,079
from the stuff you.

648
00:31:12,039 --> 00:31:12,559
Speaker 5: See going on.

649
00:31:12,839 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 1: Oh oh good, I'd like to benefit from the destruction

650
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:17,160
of a good portion of our country. So so how

651
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:19,880
do we benefit from the destruction of the entire Eastern seaboard.

652
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:25,480
Speaker 4: So I look, I actually I'm going to say it's

653
00:31:25,519 --> 00:31:28,559
fairly easy. And I think it's fairly easy in in

654
00:31:28,559 --> 00:31:33,720
in concept. The execution of it is is definitely more

655
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:37,279
difficult and requires a lot more work. But you are

656
00:31:37,359 --> 00:31:40,079
looking at a scenario. Now, Look, I want to talk

657
00:31:40,119 --> 00:31:44,240
about this with no hyperbolely involved. Let's just and I

658
00:31:44,319 --> 00:31:46,079
and I and I think it's I think it's best

659
00:31:46,119 --> 00:31:48,920
to do that. So we can just focus on the

660
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:52,359
things that we know, right, Like I always say in investing,

661
00:31:52,599 --> 00:31:56,079
try to sit aside as many other things you can

662
00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:59,039
to look at just the fact right, set your politics aside,

663
00:31:59,119 --> 00:32:02,480
set social b said, you want to just analyze the facts.

664
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 5: So you're the facts.

665
00:32:04,359 --> 00:32:08,759
Speaker 4: You are looking at a US stock market, an asset

666
00:32:08,839 --> 00:32:09,880
market in general.

667
00:32:09,599 --> 00:32:11,599
Speaker 5: Housings at all time, and affordability as well.

668
00:32:11,839 --> 00:32:14,759
Speaker 4: But you're looking at US or US stock market that

669
00:32:15,119 --> 00:32:20,200
is in i'd say ninety eight percent of different metrics

670
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:23,200
at by far and away the most overvalued has ever

671
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:27,160
been in history. Now, that overvaluation, I think, in all

672
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:32,960
reality is significantly more than any other time in history

673
00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:37,519
because you've got certain things that make the valuations look

674
00:32:38,559 --> 00:32:42,000
more tame, like stock based compensation, which is being used

675
00:32:42,039 --> 00:32:46,920
at a record amount, all these different tricks, segregating different

676
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:47,920
liabilities off in a.

677
00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:49,039
Speaker 5: Special purpose vehicles.

678
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 4: There's a lot of different things right now that if

679
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:53,079
you undid those things and you actually looked at these

680
00:32:53,119 --> 00:32:57,160
corporations in a way that a detailed investor would, you'd

681
00:32:57,160 --> 00:33:01,279
come back and say, okay, actually value an all time high.

682
00:33:01,279 --> 00:33:02,759
There's a lot of things in there that are that

683
00:33:02,799 --> 00:33:05,759
are I don't want to say artificial, but window dressing

684
00:33:05,799 --> 00:33:07,359
to make valuations.

685
00:33:06,759 --> 00:33:09,319
Speaker 5: Look look lower. Okay, so there's an overvaluation problem.

686
00:33:10,079 --> 00:33:15,759
Speaker 4: But here's here's the more interesting problem. There are a

687
00:33:15,799 --> 00:33:17,680
lot of stock markets out there in the world, right,

688
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:19,079
There's a lot of stocks in the world.

689
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:19,279
Speaker 3: Right.

690
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:22,039
Speaker 4: They can think around the world, Europe and you know, Russia,

691
00:33:22,079 --> 00:33:24,240
and you know all over the place, China and Japan,

692
00:33:24,359 --> 00:33:28,359
all that kind of stuff. When you look at the

693
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:31,880
MSCI World Index, which is an index of the largest

694
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:35,160
stocks in the world, very representative of the international right,

695
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:36,759
the whole international community.

696
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:37,599
Speaker 5: Think about this.

697
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 4: Of the MSCI World Index, thirty percent of the MSCI

698
00:33:43,079 --> 00:33:46,480
World Index is the top seven stocks in the United States.

699
00:33:46,599 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 5: That's thirty percent. That's seven.

700
00:33:50,039 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 4: I didn't say the s m P five hundred made

701
00:33:52,319 --> 00:33:54,559
up thirty percent of the MSCI World Index.

702
00:33:54,799 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 5: I said seven stocks did. Okay.

703
00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:01,559
Speaker 4: Now here's the crazy part. We are the largest economy

704
00:34:01,599 --> 00:34:03,559
in the world. The second largest economy in the world

705
00:34:03,599 --> 00:34:07,480
is China. By twenty thirty, as it relates to GDP. Now,

706
00:34:08,079 --> 00:34:11,039
we will still have a far more productive economy and

707
00:34:11,119 --> 00:34:15,320
will have a much higher GDP per person, But in

708
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:18,039
terms of total size of the economy by twenty thirty,

709
00:34:18,199 --> 00:34:20,719
US and China are going to be relatively not connect. Okay,

710
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:25,679
So you look in the MSCI World Index at China stocks,

711
00:34:26,159 --> 00:34:30,199
all of China, their stocks make up three percent of

712
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:36,400
the MSCI World Index. So, regardless evaluation, what you are

713
00:34:36,519 --> 00:34:40,880
seeing right now, that is an absolute historical anomaly. We

714
00:34:41,039 --> 00:34:46,079
have no comps the amount of concentration of global money

715
00:34:46,199 --> 00:34:50,480
in US stocks and the lack of concentration of global

716
00:34:50,519 --> 00:34:54,880
money everywhere else. You have never been more historically tipped

717
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:59,000
the other way. The difference in valuation of our markets

718
00:34:59,039 --> 00:35:01,960
compared to every other the market has never been wider.

719
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:07,599
And what I think what you want to do here

720
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:11,119
is you've got a generational opportunity that we haven't seen

721
00:35:11,119 --> 00:35:12,760
a setup like this in fifty years.

722
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:14,800
Speaker 5: Meaning literally, you've.

723
00:35:14,599 --> 00:35:18,239
Speaker 4: Got you've got you've got markets and things that are

724
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:21,440
breaking twenty five year down friends to the S and

725
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:26,519
P five hundred twenty five years. So what what the

726
00:35:26,599 --> 00:35:30,559
deal is is while everybody and their mother keeps throwing

727
00:35:30,639 --> 00:35:33,880
money at ridiculously overpriced US.

728
00:35:33,639 --> 00:35:36,800
Speaker 5: Stocks, they're giving them away in other parts of the world.

729
00:35:37,519 --> 00:35:41,280
Speaker 4: And it's look, there will be ups and downs, there

730
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:44,360
will be volatility, But if you are not looking at

731
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:49,400
natural resources, commodities and international stocks, you're not an investor.

732
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:51,360
Speaker 5: You're not an investor because.

733
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:53,920
Speaker 4: Every every portfolio I look at Todd, guess what they

734
00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:56,320
all own, they're all loaded up in those same seven stocks.

735
00:35:56,639 --> 00:35:59,320
And meanwhile, I'm looking at them and the reason that

736
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:02,000
they're loaded up and is because they've done so well.

737
00:36:02,199 --> 00:36:05,239
And I'm sitting there going, guys, yes, but look at

738
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:06,199
the valuations.

739
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:07,920
Speaker 5: Here. Here's the other thing. You look.

740
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:10,400
Speaker 4: Look at the valuations of these companies in terms of

741
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:14,199
just large numbers. Okay, Palenteer is everybody's darling right now, right.

742
00:36:14,159 --> 00:36:16,360
Speaker 2: Yep, we got here Palenteer right here, yep.

743
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:17,199
Speaker 3: Yeah.

744
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,639
Speaker 4: So so Palenteer is doing four and a half billion

745
00:36:20,679 --> 00:36:23,840
dollars of revenue, okay, yep, and they're at a five

746
00:36:24,079 --> 00:36:27,679
hundred billion dollar market cap, so they're trading at one

747
00:36:27,719 --> 00:36:30,519
hundred and twenty times revenue.

748
00:36:30,679 --> 00:36:31,760
Speaker 5: Here's the issue.

749
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:38,840
Speaker 4: Okay, if let's say you, if you're buying Palenteer right now,

750
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:42,639
you must think that that stock is going to go up, right, like,

751
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:44,559
that's why buy stock right right?

752
00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:44,920
Speaker 5: By?

753
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:45,719
Speaker 2: Low so high.

754
00:36:46,599 --> 00:36:50,639
Speaker 4: So let's say your thesis. Now, now, Palenteer is growing revenues.

755
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:53,440
They've got a really healthy growth rate. They're growing revenues

756
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:54,960
at forty five to fifty percent.

757
00:36:55,039 --> 00:36:58,679
Speaker 5: Okay. Let's say they hold that growth rate for the

758
00:36:58,719 --> 00:36:59,679
next five years.

759
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:05,599
Speaker 4: Okay, and let's say that be you know, fifty percent

760
00:37:05,639 --> 00:37:08,440
a year compounded for five years would put you up

761
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:12,960
around four x four x thing of your revenues. Okay, okay,

762
00:37:14,239 --> 00:37:18,639
So if over the next five years you four extra revenue,

763
00:37:19,039 --> 00:37:24,159
which is incredible growth, right, that's unbelievable, what is your

764
00:37:24,199 --> 00:37:27,280
projection for the stock? If your four extra revenue, you're

765
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:28,960
probably hoping the stock triples.

766
00:37:29,679 --> 00:37:33,440
Speaker 5: Right, Well, here's the issue.

767
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:36,320
Speaker 4: The if you if you four x the revenue like

768
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:40,519
we're talking about, Yeah, okay, you go to twenty billion, right,

769
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:44,079
if you get a two or three hundred percent gain

770
00:37:44,159 --> 00:37:46,519
on the stock because your four x the revenue, you're

771
00:37:46,519 --> 00:37:49,400
looking at a market cap of what so one point

772
00:37:49,440 --> 00:37:51,039
five trillion dollars.

773
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:52,840
Speaker 5: So now now you've got.

774
00:37:52,679 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 4: A company that's doing twenty billion in revenue with a

775
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:58,400
one point five trillion dollar market cap, meaning that you're

776
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:01,400
up against the law of large numbers, like for the

777
00:38:01,519 --> 00:38:06,280
stock to move up anymore. A five percent move higher

778
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:12,360
in the stock equates to six years of revenue at

779
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:13,000
the current rate.

780
00:38:14,079 --> 00:38:16,519
Speaker 5: So you're looking at it and going so.

781
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:18,800
Speaker 1: If Palaginer tried to sell the company, Let's say they're

782
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:21,000
doing that twenty billion and they go out they want

783
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:23,960
to sell the company outright, Okay, let's just pretend this

784
00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:25,840
is the case we want to sell, and you can

785
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:28,239
have strategic implications. You know, they're going to be part

786
00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:31,480
of the surveillance state, they're tied into the deep state,

787
00:38:31,599 --> 00:38:34,239
so this could be strategic reasons, so they could be

788
00:38:34,239 --> 00:38:38,400
a strategic bonus, right, right, and you go to investor.

789
00:38:38,440 --> 00:38:40,239
Speaker 2: You say, okay, so what are your revenues? Twenty billion?

790
00:38:40,679 --> 00:38:43,519
Twenty billion? Okay, what do you ask for the company?

791
00:38:43,559 --> 00:38:48,480
One point five trillion? Yeah, right, so that's a big

792
00:38:48,519 --> 00:38:49,480
business stuff. Zact.

793
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:51,880
Speaker 1: The way you're describing this and these seven companies, it's

794
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:54,039
just insane. Let me in a second. I want to

795
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:56,239
blow this down the small business. But while we're on

796
00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:58,920
the topic of small business, we're going into the Christmas

797
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:02,719
season and Alan Soaps would make a fantastic Christmas gift

798
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:05,079
for a couple of reasons. Number One, it's the world's

799
00:39:05,079 --> 00:39:08,559
best soap. It's made in America, all natural. The family

800
00:39:08,599 --> 00:39:11,599
that makes this, this is what they do like this

801
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:15,360
is the family gig and they've done this for three generations,

802
00:39:15,559 --> 00:39:16,760
so they're experts at this.

803
00:39:17,119 --> 00:39:17,840
Speaker 2: All natural.

804
00:39:18,159 --> 00:39:22,079
Speaker 1: There's not a chemical in this stuff. It's designed. The

805
00:39:22,159 --> 00:39:27,480
fragrances are unique, designed by young Allen who works there

806
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:30,800
and he's not would be employable elsewhere, not because he

807
00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:34,519
can't work, but because he's nonverbal and he's been he's

808
00:39:34,559 --> 00:39:39,000
impacted by movement patterns that are unique. He has been

809
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:42,519
through eighteen operations. His brother Ian works there, also impacted

810
00:39:42,519 --> 00:39:45,719
by autism. It makes a great Christmas gift because number one,

811
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:47,559
it's the greatest soap in the world. Number two, it's

812
00:39:47,559 --> 00:39:49,880
made in America. Number three, you get to tell the

813
00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:53,360
story of why the soap company. The soap company exists

814
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:56,519
to employ people like that, right, and it is a

815
00:39:56,599 --> 00:40:00,840
mission bigger and better than just soap. Go to allansaps

816
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:03,400
dot com, slash Todd, use promo code Todd to get

817
00:40:03,440 --> 00:40:06,199
temper sent off all their products and yeah, su you know,

818
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:09,280
get subscriptions soap for people like particular kids they need

819
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:11,840
soap all the time by a subscription plan, Alan soaps

820
00:40:11,880 --> 00:40:14,239
dot Com and slash Todd. So that was big business

821
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:16,199
of Zach. I just mentioned a small business. Let me

822
00:40:16,199 --> 00:40:19,199
give you kind of a small business metaphor for this.

823
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:23,519
So if you were going to go buy a fruit stand, well,

824
00:40:23,599 --> 00:40:25,519
let's say a coffee stand. You go to the coffee

825
00:40:25,519 --> 00:40:28,280
stand and you say, you know what, I lived here

826
00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:31,199
here my daughter, you know, she wants a place to work,

827
00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:33,119
and I kind of just want a retirement job. I

828
00:40:33,159 --> 00:40:36,000
came out with people, what are your yearly revenues here?

829
00:40:36,119 --> 00:40:38,039
You know, where do we do a quarter million? Oh

830
00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:41,079
it's not bad soul coffee shop and yeah, you know

831
00:40:41,079 --> 00:40:43,880
we sell some merch and some stuff, some meals.

832
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:44,480
Speaker 2: Okay, cool?

833
00:40:44,559 --> 00:40:46,639
Speaker 1: So how many employees are I get three? What are

834
00:40:46,639 --> 00:40:48,719
you paying them thirty grand a year? What do you

835
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:51,679
want for the place? Twenty two million dollars?

836
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:57,400
Speaker 2: Sweet? Is that relatively spot on to what we're talking

837
00:40:57,400 --> 00:40:57,840
about here?

838
00:40:58,400 --> 00:40:58,639
Speaker 5: Yeah?

839
00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:05,880
Speaker 4: And the and here's why overvaluation almost more than anything

840
00:41:05,920 --> 00:41:11,760
when you look at historically the lam's investors mostly retail investors, right,

841
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:14,719
even retail investors that are doing their doing their homework

842
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:17,199
a lot of times because they sit there and they

843
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:20,840
watch the arc of the stock and they're reading the

844
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:26,280
company results every quarter, and they're going, well, they're still growing, right,

845
00:41:26,599 --> 00:41:28,679
the narrative is still in place, so the stock will

846
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:29,400
keep going up.

847
00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:33,159
Speaker 5: But then you forget about Microsoft.

848
00:41:33,679 --> 00:41:36,719
Speaker 4: Right, So the old story from Mike from two thousand

849
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:41,719
and two to twenty twelve, Microsoft stock went nowhere, Right,

850
00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:44,599
It made no money over a ten year.

851
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:47,199
Speaker 5: Period of time. The stock went nowhere. Over that same

852
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:51,400
period of time, revenue tripled. Okay, And people go, well,

853
00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:52,440
why didn't go anywhere?

854
00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:55,320
Speaker 4: And you go because when at the beginning of that

855
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:57,360
ten year period it was trading at one hundred and

856
00:41:57,400 --> 00:42:00,679
two times earnings, it needed to triple its revenue to

857
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:03,639
catch up to its valuation. Right, And so this is

858
00:42:03,679 --> 00:42:08,039
what happens in manias is stock prices get detached from

859
00:42:08,119 --> 00:42:12,320
the actual underlying cash flows and what people forget and

860
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:16,480
pallunteer shareholders. I put in this same place, Guys, you

861
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:20,440
currently are buying this thing at a price where it

862
00:42:20,519 --> 00:42:24,119
is virtually impossible on a cash flow basis for you

863
00:42:24,199 --> 00:42:26,480
to be profitable in this trade in the.

864
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:31,360
Speaker 5: Next ten years. Like it's it's it's virtually mathematically impossible.

865
00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:35,159
Speaker 4: Yeah, and unless they do it, Nvidia and five extra

866
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:37,519
revenue over the course of a year and a half, and.

867
00:42:37,440 --> 00:42:39,679
Speaker 5: I will just tell you you'll probably never see anything

868
00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:41,559
like that again. I mean, it was a complete anomaly.

869
00:42:41,920 --> 00:42:45,880
Speaker 4: So it just it doesn't make sense that the part,

870
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:48,559
the part that gives you heartburn note Todd is then

871
00:42:48,599 --> 00:42:54,519
you look around internationally, they're given stuff away. I mean

872
00:42:54,559 --> 00:42:59,920
they're just given stuff away. And it's it is a

873
00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:02,119
it is a generational opportunity.

874
00:43:02,239 --> 00:43:05,079
Speaker 5: And not only is it that I think people are going.

875
00:43:05,039 --> 00:43:08,679
Speaker 4: To get smashed in US stocks. I think they're going

876
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:11,719
to get smashed for a while. And I think at

877
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:14,880
simultaneously they're missing out on one of the greatest. I've

878
00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:18,079
never seen a buying opportunity with assets like this at

879
00:43:18,079 --> 00:43:19,480
prices like this in my career.

880
00:43:20,039 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 5: I've been doing this almost twenty years.

881
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:24,840
Speaker 1: There you go, So Zach explained the solid explanation. And look,

882
00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:27,480
if you will go to Mexico and say, oh my gosh, honey,

883
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:29,960
they've got a leather jacket here for ninety nine bucks.

884
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:31,679
This is six hundred bucks in the States, and you

885
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:34,559
purchase it, then you should be looking at the international stocks.

886
00:43:34,559 --> 00:43:36,159
Speaker 2: I mean, that's me. I just like to boil it

887
00:43:36,159 --> 00:43:37,400
down to my monkey brain thing.

888
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:40,800
Speaker 1: It's great to talk with you. Great forgetting thank you

889
00:43:40,840 --> 00:43:45,000
for the wise Council day. We miss you over here, uh.

890
00:43:45,159 --> 00:43:45,400
Speaker 2: I know.

891
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:47,960
Speaker 1: You know I've talked about this tour to Tupelo and

892
00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:49,599
some of these speaking dates and you coming out and

893
00:43:49,599 --> 00:43:50,480
meet some of the folks.

894
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:52,400
Speaker 2: We need to do that. But we need your folks.

895
00:43:52,400 --> 00:43:53,519
We need you to get back over here.

896
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:58,400
Speaker 4: You know. Yeah, My wife and I always talking about that.

897
00:43:58,400 --> 00:43:59,679
It's been a while since we've been over there.

898
00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:02,039
Speaker 5: Are you. Are you guys doing that that conference again

899
00:44:02,159 --> 00:44:03,039
in like February.

900
00:44:03,119 --> 00:44:04,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you got to come to that.

901
00:44:04,719 --> 00:44:06,199
Speaker 1: We got to come to that love to and we'll

902
00:44:06,199 --> 00:44:08,840
give a speech and we'll speak together and you can

903
00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:11,800
meet a bunch of the folks, and then I'm committed

904
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:12,719
to the trip.

905
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:13,440
Speaker 2: Down to Mexico.

906
00:44:13,440 --> 00:44:14,920
Speaker 1: I just got the numbers and the people got to

907
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:17,039
be there for renew got that's a little bit of

908
00:44:17,079 --> 00:44:18,400
travel coming up. But we need to get you back

909
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:21,760
over here and do let's do a private event where

910
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:23,400
we just sit down and we bring folks in and

911
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:25,960
you answer questions, and we'll do it at a pizza place,

912
00:44:26,000 --> 00:44:26,800
a certain pizza place.

913
00:44:26,840 --> 00:44:29,000
Speaker 2: I'm not supposed to mention anymore the key.

914
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:31,760
Speaker 4: Okay, why can't you mention it anymore?

915
00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:34,800
Speaker 1: It's a licensing thing and they, you know, make pizzas

916
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:35,800
with I'm just kidding.

917
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:38,719
Speaker 2: I'm just kidding, trying to play big timer and all that.

918
00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:41,760
Speaker 1: All right, Zach Abraham, Chief best Officer, Boward Capital Management,

919
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:44,760
thanks for joining us, and we will do that again

920
00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:45,199
next week.

921
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:46,199
Speaker 2: This is the Todd Herman Show.

922
00:44:46,239 --> 00:44:49,079
Speaker 1: Please go, be well, be strong, be kind, and please

923
00:44:49,119 --> 00:44:51,400
make every effort to walk in the life of Christ.

