Speaker 1: We are live on Saturday, eleven am Easter because it's
wager Talk Last call Monday through Friday.
Speaker 2: Wager Talk Today at.
Speaker 1: Noon and then Saturday we give you last called eleven
am Eastern and we're getting closer to the football season.
We will be talking some NFL futures a little bit
later with Teddy Covers, but we got a lot of baseball,
some MMA action, and other sports to get to you.
Speaker 2: Let's start it off with Johnny the Greek.
Speaker 1: By the way, I am Steve Merrill, filling in for
Aerial lef ste If you didn't guess by now, I'm
not Ariel. She'll be back next week on Saturday. But
Johnny the Greek joins us every week on wager Talk
Today and also Saturday. Here a last call to give
us the Steam report and Greek? What are you looking
at here on Saturday morning?
Speaker 3: All right? I already fired some summer League NBA. If
you go over to Wagertalk dot com and check on
my free page Free Picks, you will have a three
percent premium play that I sent out to subscribers that's
up and avaluable for free. That's in The NBA Summer
league has been really good for us, and I'll get
you another when the line's moved a little bit. So
it's on the individual how much risk they want to
take on. But we bet the Indiana Pacers as well.
We bet them at minus five, four and a half
and four. So uh, that's why you're looking at a
lot of threes, even a few three and a half
still out there as well. But we also took Indiana
at plus five and plus four. And then I have
a three percent that I sent to subscribers that's also
up for three for you guys. Uh, a couple of
baseball plays for you, real quickly. Yesterday before the series started,
I was at the ufc UH taping at Apex, so
I didn't even see this come in. I have my
cousin back in Philly. He handles that stuff when I'm
working doing you know, tied up with obligations. Anyway, make
a long story short, he said. A couple of minutes
ace before first pitch, they unloaded through like five six
different accounts, Cincinnati for the series, Cincinnati for the series,
Cincinnati for the series, and that was at minus two
seventy two eighty two ninety. They were betting Cincinnati for
the series. Well, lo and behold, Cincinnati loses Game one
to Colorado. So if they're gonna hit that series bet,
they're gonna have to win today. They're gonna have that
cash with Cincinnati today and cash with Cincinnati tomorrow. Or
that's a heavy chalky play that will go down. And
usually those late plays do really well. It's mostly based
on late information or you know, waiting till the limits
get a lot higher to unload. And finally a couple
of baseball plays for you guys. Again, it's really early.
It's only eight o'clock out here on the East Coast.
The Canadians don't bet till about ten am. They wait
till more of the off screen outs offer higher limits
before they share their stuff. But here's a couple of
the overninth in some of the early stuff this morning.
Nine to fifty three Dodgers minus one, forty nine to
seventy Athletics plus one thirty nine, seventy one Cubbies plus
one forty five, nine seventy six Baltimore minus one sixty,
and then nine to fifty seven Washington Milwaukee over eight
and a half up to minus one thirty. A couple
sides of total for you, some NBA action series bet
to keep your eye on, and of course there's a
UFC today. We'll be covering the entire card in the
steam Room in about an hour and a half as
we cover some of the stuff.
Speaker 2: Live later today and Johnny tell everybody about the steam Room.
Speaker 1: I know that's a very popular feature they get when
they're part of a subscriber for.
Speaker 3: You, Yeah, and today it's free for everyone, so come
on in and especially for you MMA fans. I did
the show yesterday to take the show we taped yesterday
at the UFC was for UFC three eighteen, the big
paper viewed card next week, and it was me, Michael
Kiessa sat in as a co host, and then Dan
Haley for Who's from the NFL network, He hosted it. Anyway,
I got to talk to Kisa for a while, covered
a lot of the three eighteen fights. Getting a fighter's
perspective was absolutely priceless. It's so I love going early
to make up because there's always fighters around there and
because I'm the betting guy, they always want to talk gambling.
They just love it. So I get to talk a
lot of ask them a lot about the fights and
even saw Chris Widman. Shout out to Widman, Ray Loano,
love you guys out in New York. He was in Vegas,
so I got to see him and we were talking
about some of the fights coming up for tomorrow and
next week. So we'll talk about that. In the steam room.
We'll go over Major League Baseball Live, Summer League NBA,
and more baseball should be coming in. You'll get those
for free. It'll be at nine thirty twelve thirty pm Eastern.
We'll go over year to date results, will go over
short term results last thirty days or so, we'll go
over money management, how I've been able to overcome that
short term variance that all betters are going to face,
and there to answer all your questions. So twelve thirty Eastern,
the link will be up at wager Talk. The link
will be up on my YouTube my Twitter as well,
and I hope you guys do some damage today.
Speaker 1: On's a good that's the steam Room free today at
twelve thirty Eastern here at about an hour and a
half half, So make sure you take advantage of that.
And by the way, if you like that feature, after
you use it for free, you can get it as
part of his package and also get his blackjack course.
Speaker 2: You're nine hundred and ninety nine dollars blackjack.
Speaker 1: Courses still included as when they got the one year subscription.
There's an instant eight hundred and eleven dollars discounting your
page right now for that one year all access.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you're one of my favorite people. Wait, just
talk man. Tell Johnny that all the time. I even
watch your stuff. I love watching your stuff. So I'm
appreciate that. Thank you for mention in the blackjack course
because the truth is, I swear to you, Steve, I've
gotten I told Johnny you need to send everyone that
took that course, you need to send them an email
and just ask them to please write what they thought,
because I got so many dude, I say it, I
get goosebumps. So many guys. I'd say thirty percent of
that class has already reached out to me again like
DM me saying dude, thank you, asking a question about blackjack,
saying like they've made money using it. It's awesome watching
these guys. They're right where I was right when I
learned the system, got the blueprint in my hands, and
now I got to go out there and put it
the work, and they're going through those trials right now,
because again it's just like with sports betting. You may
have winning information, but as we all know from wager talk,
if you don't use it correctly, it's really not going
to help you long term. It may help you in
the short term if you know you're hot, you get
a winner, but if you're gonna make money long term
and do it over and over and over again, you know,
you got to be able to come have those disciplines
that are needed, and they're going through that right now.
A lot of guys I saw some of the dms
that they send their questions like that where they got
to fight those demons off where you know they know
they have the best of it because they know exactly
what their edge is. They're like, dude, I had a
big edge and I still lost. And that's gambling. Short term,
you know that there's a lot of randomness involved. So yeah,
they're giving that out. If you just sign up for
the year with football coming, it's a great deal and
you'll have a skill set for life. Man. Honestly, the
Blackjack Corse is the thing I'm most proud of. I
love the results long term at wager talk. But the
blackjack course is something anyone could learn and go off
and do whatever they want with it. And yeah, I
hope somebody eventually does like crazy damage and I hear
about it and they started it from that course.
Speaker 1: That would be they're gonna link it back to you,
and you're gonna be in trouble. The casinos are docked
at your front door wanting their refunds.
Speaker 2: Blackjacks still beatable. You know a lot of people think
it's not because of the countermeasures.
Speaker 1: Let me ask you this said. If you don't want
to say why on live TV, don't say it. But
if I owned a casino, I wouldn't have a single
dealer shuffling up anymore. I'd have automatic shuffle machines. Why
don't they all do that by now? There's less downtime.
You probably can't count if they do that, correct, I mean,
what's the reason they're not doing that?
Speaker 3: Yeah, the the the automatic shuffle machines, we're okay with.
It's the continuous shuffle machines. We can't beat the ones
that you see that are out there now on the
casino floor, especially on the floor. They can't put them
in the high limit yet, because those guys that play
high limit, they've been playing blackjack enough to know when
rules like that get altered, it's in their detriment. They
may not be able to you the exact percentages, they
may not be able to tell you exactly how it's
hurting them, but they know it's hurting them, so they
won't go there. And there's other competition that will deal
them a fair game. And with high rollers, you don't
want to risk that. That's why in the high limit
pits you never see those continuous shuffles. You'll see automatic
shuffle because that saves times. Like you said, takes them
a while in to shuffle, and the machine's going to
even do it better where you won't be able to
get clumps. There's some teams out there that they follow clumps.
I could explain that you know the exactly you know,
you know you gambling, you get it, and they track cards.
The automatic stops that from happening. But it's the continuous
shuffle that eliminates the card counters because you know there's
nothing to count. They're just after they clear up there
just keeps stuffing the cards back in the random It's
like just shuffling up continuously, so you don't know what
deck you're in, how many decks you're playing, or anything
like that. That's not beatable. Automatic shuffle, that's fine, but
it's a continuous suffle that I agree. If I had it,
I do the exact time, same thing. I do the
exact same thing, Steve. And just like with the sports betting,
why are they charging one oh nine s one to fifteen's,
one to seventeens instead of discounts Because people are still
betting it, right, but they're still sharp guys like yourself
that aren't going to bet into those lines that are
gonna hunt down minus one tens they do it, won't lay
those minus one twelves to thirteen to fifteens because they
know it's detrimental to thom And that's why, fortunately it
remains beatable to this day because of competition. The market
forces blackjack to stay beatable for the time being.
Speaker 1: Well, and the best sports betting in the country is
still in Nevada, you know. And they said back to
the nineteen seventies when Atlantic City was opening, everyone thought
that was gonna be the death of Las Vegas Point,
and all it did was make it stronger because it
was the minor league version of Las Vegas, and people
want the real deal and we're seeing that with the
sports betting. I didn't think of until you just said
the minus one fifteen, the minus the thirty cent lines
of the twenty four cent lines.
Speaker 2: Hey, since about a week ago.
Speaker 1: I saw you and Andy talk about it before I
came on last Thursday. Now that we've had another week
to kind of think about all these changes that are coming,
maybe the professional gamblers, any update from your thoughts on that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it was the initial panic, like anything, and we
see it the overreaction. It's kind of like when we
see bad weather in football and the total starts getting
bet under, you know, and then the betters keep betting
it even though they already adjusted three or four points
because they're seeing snow, and you know, it's just an overreaction,
And I thought, I think that's what happened. I think
it's an overreaction by the betters. But it is really
going to be a detriment to those that do use
on screen books that do report there's wins and losses,
Like if you're scalping, you have to have some books
that are on screen. So you could get paid. You
may be betting against Pinnacles line or against Chris's line
or someone's line, but you need the other side to scalp.
So someone has to be on the other side. And
if that other side is an on screen book, that's
going to get reported. That's where that problem comes in.
The guys that are forced to bet on screen, they're
going to run into some tax problems. Guys like myself
that do ninety plus percent off screen, it's the same game.
It's the same game. It's on us their report what
we do. It's on them to uncover it when it's
not documented. So it's the same cat and mouse game.
Speaker 4: Man.
Speaker 3: Of course, they're trying to find take money any possible
ways they can by taxing us, but there's always ways
around it. And if you're at that high level of
betting and you have the kind of bankroll where you're
in betting syndicates and these guys that are talking about
all this stuff, and you don't have a good accountant,
it just don't add up to me how you're making
six figures a year betting sports and you don't have
a decent accountant that could save you money at the
tax window. So hire a good accountant. That's why you
make a lot of money, so they could do their job.
Hire a good lawyer and let them handle that. That'll
play out itself. Again. I'm sure there's accountants out there
for high level gamblers that are already letting them know
how to get through this. There's always loopholes in tax code.
You just got to find the right guy who understands
it and don't overreact. I overreacted myself. I panicked myself.
But our jobs are safe and secure. There's always ways
around being overtaxed, just like what every other thing in
life that we deal with.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting because I mean, obviously I thought it was.
It was strange news and it was big news at
the time.
Speaker 2: But I agree with you.
Speaker 1: It always seems like it seems worse in the first
forty eight hours and then people start realizing, well, they
cut one thing here, but they give you an ad
back here. And cat and mouse, I mean, sports betting
as a professional is a cat and mouse game.
Speaker 4: It is it is.
Speaker 3: I think it's fair, Steve. I'm sorry, like I just
think it's fair, maybe because I'm just old school and
this is what I've been used to like, you're trying
to get over on them, they're trying to get over
on you. It's fair, it's fair.
Speaker 1: I was gonna say, but I think I think tax
law is a cat and mouse game too, sure what
it is, but you're right, it's always changing and the
winners still win long term and they find ways to win.
And it's the same thing with the tax code. But yeah,
it's interesting to see how things have maybe cooled down
a little bit in the last couple.
Speaker 3: Just just to put it in perspective. I bumped into
a guy out here, not going to say his name,
high profile guy who as far as a gambling twitter goes,
and he's the game running off to me like in
a panic, like dude, what are we going to do?
And this and that, and like panicing like man, if
we make a living anymore like all this stuff. I'm
thinking to myself, Bro, you don't make your living betting
like it, so you're gonna be fine, I'm thinking to myself.
And then I had to meet the guy that's my
main contact for like one of the bigger betting syndicates,
and I'm like, what do you think of this new law?
And he's like who cares doesn't change anything for us.
Like these guys are been millions of dollars a day
and they could care less. And this guy's barely been
twenty by dollars parlays and he's having he's getting hysterical.
Probably did a video after he bumped into me to
let people know about how detrimental or how it isn't
you know, but that's what's happening. It's just something else
to talk about. But those guys like that that really
make their living betting sports, we're finding ways around it.
We always had. And if you made money last year
you got taxed, you're just going to get taxed again
this year. Sit down with your account and figure it out.
You'll be just fine. That's how I figure.
Speaker 1: And history really does repeat itself. It doesn't always repeat itself,
but it rhymes. Nineteen years ago, two thousand and six,
the Kyle Bill is when Pinnacle went off for everybody,
and that was an eleventh hour add on, just like
this was in a port security bill back in two
thousand and six, a port security bill they had an
internet betting clause like the two hundred and eleventh page
in the eleventh hours. So wow, We've seen this before.
You know, history repeats itself, and obviously pinnacles still around,
but it's been a different game. But as you said,
the pros still found a way to play with all
of those books and make a living. But yeah, google
the Kyle bill, the Kyle admittment.
Speaker 3: To Will I will.
Speaker 1: The difference on this one, Johnny, That which kind of
irritates me is that no one, at least last week
when I checked, I could not find who was behind
this add on, which is a little irritating. At least
man up the Hey, I'm the one that wants to
cut the losses down to ninety percent, and it's and nameless,
which I thought was very shady. W who the senators
or congressman there were? Well, yeah, the Senate's the one
that added this last week, And unlike nineteen years ago,
Senator Kyle was an adamant anti gambling guy from Arizona.
Speaker 2: So hey, at.
Speaker 1: Least he was consistent, right, But yeah, this one was
kind of a shadowy overnight add on that nobody.
Speaker 2: Took credit for, which bothers me a little bit.
Speaker 3: And you're talking about the United States government like they're
not all that that our irs isn't all that efficient, dude.
Speaker 1: Like no, And I think Dave Mason summed it up
right when Andy asked him after your segment.
Speaker 2: You know, these politicians don't know what they're doing at all.
Speaker 1: They're told this will add an extra billion dollars to revenue,
but they don't realize the side effects of everything. It's gonna,
you know, crush some game, just gonna push everything illegal
and underground again.
Speaker 2: That's it, bottom line, That's what.
Speaker 3: Happened to forced to do it that way anyway for
local books.
Speaker 2: It's just like taxing fifty cents on every way.
Speaker 1: Tron Illinois's just going to make people play offshore and
with a rookie, so it's not changing anything, and it's
like revenue and less income for the states.
Speaker 2: And for them to text.
Speaker 1: Exactly, Johnny the Greek, you got about an hour to
the steam room, so I'll let you get ready once again.
On his page right now at wager talk dot com,
instant eight hundred eleven dollars discount on his one year
all access that gets it down to three dollars a day.
It includes the steam room, it includes the one thousand
dollars blackjack course. He just talked about for a limited
time because that's already expired, but he's going to add
it back in Johnny, anything else you want to stay
on the way out, You'll.
Speaker 3: Be back Monday. Thank you, guys. Best of luck to you, Steve,
best luck. That was rest of the wager Talk crew
and all the guys that are up now watching this.
I know it's a little slow with summer football's just
around the corner, but you can continue taking advantage. Again,
there's always that betting market there, so it doesn't have
to be football season or even like NB all that
stuff going on to make some money. The betting lines
are up, so find those inefficiencies. Hope you guys do
some damage. And again thanks for having me.
Speaker 1: Great to see him hit back at noon Eastern Monday,
every day on wager Talk today Monday through Friday at
noon Easter and once again, his steamer room is free
today at twelve thirty Eastern. Check that out here at
wager talk dot com. Johnny the Greek all right, started
at Las Vegas. We are going around the world today
to say the least. We're gonna have Tokyo Brandon next,
and we're gonna have Jesse Schul from Thailand and then
come back to Las Vegas for Teddy Covers. So we
are stamping the passports. So let's talk some baseball though,
because it's a big baseball Saturday. Tokyo Brandon, former MLB scout,
Major League Baseball expert, Japanese baseball expert. It's in his name,
Tokyo Little Korean baseball at times as well. How has
the baseball season been going for you? Have you noticed
anything different this year from years past? Or is it
kind of the same old, samele.
Speaker 5: Yeah. People call this the dog days of summer, but
it's not for me. I went three and oho in
baseball yesterday. I'm AU plus one hundred and five units
in twenty twenty five, so I'm back to number one.
So feeling good and MLB is mostly the reason for that.
Korean baseball is on a hiatus right now. They're in
the All Star break. Japanese baseball is going well. I
went one to oher in Ja Benese baseball, three and
oh in MLB, so yeah, it was a good day
and things are going quite well. As a matter of fact,
after this show at You and Eastern, I'm going to
be doing my own my own show. I'm gonna basically
open up my spreadsheets and show people how I cap
games for about an hour, so that'll be fun.
Speaker 1: About an hour's an understatement, Brandon, because I last week
did some baseball videos and I was logging into check
out your show on the replay and you were still
going live, and I heard you say you're up almost
at three am Eastern. It was almost a two hour
show because I think you basically the chat was saying
they wanted more. You went over I think every game
on the board last Saturday.
Speaker 2: So it's been well received.
Speaker 1: And once again that's why I've here at noon Eastern,
so you can check that out about forty minutes.
Speaker 5: Yep, yep. Yeah. And it's kind of a habit of mine.
I like this swig fireball while I'm doing my capping,
but I was told not to, So sorry, guys, no
fireball today.
Speaker 1: Hold not to this like the nineteen eighties where you
can't have liquor ads on show anymore, remember you come back,
We're growing up. You couldn't have a liquor ad. You
could have cigarette ads, but not liquor ads.
Speaker 2: Now it's the opposite. Examt lickerads.
Speaker 1: You can't have cigarette ads anymore, so I smoke a
Marlborough see if that's all right instead of the fireball.
Speaker 5: How old are you, by the way, Steve, I'm fifty four.
Speaker 2: How old are you fifty one?
Speaker 1: Actually? Yeah, we've both been around to low so I've
started in nineteen ninety six. I've been handicap. I've been
a professional nicaperit of the twenty nine years this August,
more than half of my life. It's pretty insane when
we talk about it.
Speaker 5: I was doing scouting, but I'm using basically the same
systems and spreadsheets that I used when I was a
scout to do my capping, So it's it's a smooth transition.
I haven't been doing it quite as long as you.
And you are the video master at wager Talk. Everyone
envies how you make videos. I wish I could do
them like you, but I'm working on it.
Speaker 1: It's funny, you know, I'd never did a single video
TV show until well, I did a couple maybe before,
but when I switched over to wager Talking twenty twenty
after the shutdown, went from doing radio for twenty years
to video. And it is a change, but you get
used to it and it's been a good move.
Speaker 2: To say the least. So a couple game. By the way,
live chat ask away.
Speaker 1: He's going to do this in his show as well,
in forty minutes, so you don't have to worry about
blushing it and getting them all in now. But one
team I want to talk to you about to Seattle
Detroit game. I mean, Seattle exploded last night for twelve runs.
Cal Raley his eighth multiple home run game this season.
He's already tied the Mariner record. Griffy did it in
ninety seven. He took a whole season to do it.
I believe he tied Jackson from nineteen sixty nine for
the fastest before the All Star break with eight multiple
games I think he said three Grand slams already this year.
This is a guy hardly anybody could even have named
a year ago. I'd never even heard of him until
a couple of years ago. What's going on with this?
I mean, how did he get so good so fast
the last couple of years? Any thoughts? Yeah, I don't
want to say maguire social, I'm not saying that, but
I'm curious.
Speaker 5: Yeah, might want to test that guy. Pretty good catcher, though, very.
Speaker 2: Good catcher from when I hear him as well.
Speaker 1: Right, he's one of the better catchers in the league
as well defensively a pretty good catcher.
Speaker 5: I mean, you know, the Dodgers have a good catcher,
Seattle has a good catcher. There's there's very few catchers
who can actually contribute to the lineup. He's definitely one
of them. And it's a very very very good quantity.
You know, he's been decent, but he's never been like this,
so yeah, it's surprising for everyone. But regarding the game today,
A Detroit that's another team that actually I was not
real high on when the season started. But man, I
call them the best mediocre team I've ever seen.
Speaker 2: But all the.
Speaker 5: Tiger fans are gonna get in and up or about that,
But no, they're coached really well. They have the best
pitcher in Major League Baseball, and then they have some
backup guys who can do well, such as the one
who's going today. In case mys, so I do my rankings,
I ranked my starting pitchers on a curve of thirty
out of two hundred guys, and Kirby I have him
ranked ten, and mys I have him ranked eight. So
we got two really good starters going today, and Detroit's
bullpen has been a problem recently. They're kind of slipping
right now, So I give Seattle a slight advantage today.
And I know everyone's going to say you're a Detroit
Tiger hater. I'm not. It doesn't mean I'm going to
bet Seattle, but it means I'm probably not going to
bet Detroit. One thing that I found from this game
quite interesting was George Kirby's outs recorded was eighteen and
a half. So if you don't know what that means,
eighteen is six innings, so you divide the outs by
three to get the inning, So eighteen and six innings.
So the book is saying Kirby's going to get an
out in the seventh inning, and I don't. I'm projecting
him at sixteen point nine. I don't see him getting
it out in the seventh innings. So if I'm going
to bet something, I'll look a little deeper into Kirby's
eighteen and a half under outs recorded here they also
have his strikeouts at five and a half and I'm
all right four and a half and I'm projecting him
at five and a half. So maybe over on the
strikeouts under on the outs, but I'll need to research
it a little more.
Speaker 1: Well, it's a good little heads too, right, because if
he has a monster game and he don't win the
seven inning bet, then he's going to almost certainly get
the strikeout bet. He could definitely win both of them,
but it's hard to probably it's hard to probably lose
both of them.
Speaker 2: So that's a one in one, two and zero bet,
right there.
Speaker 1: I like that, And yeah, you tell me anybody's going
into the seventh inning, I'm taking under nowadays. I mean,
for the most part, that's very rare.
Speaker 5: For the most part, unless it's Wheeler or one of
those iron men.
Speaker 1: There's a couple mack Hudson has a question in the
chats Mac asked earlier today and a couple of minutes
ago Tokyo Brandon, Any Wheeler props look.
Speaker 2: Good today from mack Hudson. So we'll talk about Wheeler.
Speaker 5: Yeah, actually I answered him in the chat while Gianni
was talking. But Wheeler is eighteen and a half now.
He's one of the few exceptions of the guys that
I will want to go over eighteen and a half,
meaning he records an out in the seventh inning, and
there's a good reason for that. He generally goes quite deep.
I'm projecting him at twenty one outs here, and it's
I don't project anyone at that. He's going against the
decent lineup, but they're actually faltering quite badly right now.
The Padres, they have a lot of talent, but they're
not showing it. And if you look at Wheeler's last
few starts, he went nine inning, eight inning, he had
a six and a five and a six and a six,
so he six is eighteen, right, So he would lose
that prop if if we bet it. But I think
today he's going to handle San Diego, and if you
look at his career stats against them, I'm pretty good,
So I think he'll go over eighteen and get one
out in the seventh innings today.
Speaker 1: So Matt Cutson also has got another question which kind
of hits home for me. It's about the Reds, because
I had the Red last night minus one of that
run line. I love fading the Rockies bad teams with
the run line didn't work out, but they lost out right,
So the run line was actually a decent play there,
even though I lost it because I didn't lose a
huge juice. But Max, asking about the Reds money line
rollover today, he said he's got it and just bigger picture,
I would ask you, do you ever find a reason
to back team like the Rockies or the White Sox.
You're having a great baseball season. You always have great
baseball seasons. Do bad teams like that make your card
or do you just avoid them or look to fade them?
Speaker 5: Sometimes?
Speaker 2: I will?
Speaker 5: I mean, the White Socks are not I like. I
like a team like the White Sox because they're not
as bad as everyone.
Speaker 2: A lot of one run losses this year, a lot
of close losses.
Speaker 5: Yeah, exactly. And the Washington Nationals are another one like that.
So the books do not like the Washington Nationals. But
you know, you can bet their team total and make
some good money because they got some smashers in there,
they got wood, they got Abrams, they can do some damage.
And the White Socks are another team that can put
runs up and the book generally will slight them. But
the Rockies they are historically bad, so there's absolutely no
way I would bet the Rockies. Uh, with my money.
I might do it with your money, Steve, because you
got a lot of it, but I'm not betting Rockies
with my money. But yeah, there are some some some
historically or how shall I say, they have a bad
team stigma attached to them, but they're actually performing better
than the book thinks. Washington is one, the White Sox
is another, and the Angels is another. The Angels are
actually smashing it really good right now. So those are
three teams you can take advantage of because the books
really don't like them.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's funny when I said Rockies, I almost didn't
say White Sox with him, cause I agree with you.
I think the White Sox were terrible last year eleven.
I almost feel like they're starting to trend back up
from that bottom. They may be a bottom now. When
I last checked about a week ago, they were five
and twenty in games decided by one run. And yes,
bad teams are going to lose more one run games
or you know, mediocre, but they have a mediocre bullpen.
They don't have a horrendously bad bullpen this year, so
there is some random variants there. And I was big
on my Washington Nationals this year coming in. They had
that one and six start, could have been better at
the start, they were competitive, they just kind of seem
to find ways to lose games this year. So I
do think that's another team that's gonna start trending up,
because boy was at Soto deal a good one for them.
You know, there's talks Brandon thought this morning about could
the Pirates possibly trade schemes, which I don't think will happen,
but I was thinking, if you can get four or
five future like major leaguers like the Nationals did I
don't know, I mean, are the Pirates close enough to
get good enough to benefit from having Skiings the next
couple of years.
Speaker 5: The thing about the Pirates is they don't care about winning.
They just care about having a team. So there are
teams in Major League Baseball they absolutely don't care if
they win or not. They just care about playing the
games and having a baseball team, and the Pirates are
one of those teams. Unfortunately, sorry for Pirates fans, but
they're never going to sniffle World Series because they don't care, so.
Speaker 2: They don't spend.
Speaker 1: I mean, I kind of get where you're going with that,
because my first thought was they can't afford to probably
keep Skiings whatever three years from now, whenever it's contracts up.
I don't know what the deal is. I don't see
any realm of possibility. They're going to keep them, right,
so why not I load up up now, right and
trying to maybe catch lighting in the bottle with five prospects.
Speaker 2: But then you're gonna lose those guys too, So yeah, I.
Speaker 5: Would absolutely revolt. Can you believe the guy with that
talent is four wins and eight losses and and gets
basically one or no runs of run supports?
Speaker 1: Last night he's lost, He's oh and three. His last
three starts, he's pitching all for right oh and three.
The most meaningless stat in all his sports is one
last record, if you know, and he has a one
point seven to seven e r A.
Speaker 2: I think during that.
Speaker 1: Span, Yeah, wins losses might be the most meaningless sat
ever in the history of baseball.
Speaker 2: It'd be.
Speaker 5: But he gets to go home to Levy Dunn, so
that's not so bad.
Speaker 1: And he gets to live in Pittsburgh at least he's
there during the summer months. I would hope he heads
out during the winter. I've been to Pittsburgh numerous times.
I got a lot of Pittsburgh friends, So I say
that tongue in chic This might be an alias in
the chat swaggy with no legs, swag legs I've seen.
Speaker 4: Let me give you.
Speaker 5: Let me give you a little gambler's tip, though, if
you if we're gonna talk about huge underdogs and terrible teams,
one way that you can bet the redst is you
don't want to You don't want to bet minus three
ten obviously, but you can take their picture to win
the game. So to win a game, the picture has
to go five innings, the team has to be winning
when he leaves the game, and the bullpen has to
hold the least you have to You have to meet
these three criteria, but you'll get really good odds for it.
I haven't checked Singers to win the game prop today,
but I imagine it's like minus one ten or something
like that. So that's one way you can bet huge
favorites if you're in love with them and you really
want to fade the Rocky. The Rockies are what sixteen
and what are they eleven and thirty six on the
road or something. I mean, they're not gonna win. Singers
not a great picture, but he can go five innings
and the Reds can put up some runs on some
guy named Blaylock. So yeah, that would be one way
that you can approach a heavy, heavy favorite.
Speaker 1: Well, that's what fascinates me about the Rockies is they've
got the best offensive park in the history of Major
League Baseball, and they still have terrible tombers. But yeah,
you got to take their home numbers, and when you
look at their road numbers, they're atrocious. I mean earlier
this year they were like averaging less than two runs
a game, bet in the one nineties in all road games.
I mean that's just historically bad. Yeah, there's lots of
ways you can cut that down. I love the run
line because bad teams usually lose by margin, the same
reason I've used the Dodgers for years. On the run line,
you don't lay the two or three dollars, You lay
the minus one and a half. Get it down to
minus one fifty, minus one forty, even minus one ten.
Most good teams, like the Yankees and Dodgers, when they win,
they win by margin. And yes, you're gonna have occasional
one run games, but you're cutting the juice in half
every time, and it just it adds up in the
long n.
Speaker 5: And if the big favorite team is at home, you're
gonna get extra good price for that because they're bat
eight innings if they're winning the games.
Speaker 2: So that's something you do too.
Speaker 1: You know everyone's always like never play home teams minus
one and a half. Well, it's factored in. The juice
is like half as much then as they're on the road.
So there again, if you want to win for just
that day, if you got to like double your bank
roll tonight only or you're going to be evicted, then
you probably don't do it. But if you're taking a
long term of investment approach, like you know Brandon doesn't
like I do, then you want that value day after day.
Speaker 2: On the way out here.
Speaker 1: Though, let me add swagging mcnoleg says, Cubs line up
today sucks. Cubs are an interesting team because you talked
about the Tigers. The other best run differential in all
of baseball this year, Chicago. They're almost double what the
Dodgers and Phillies are right now in the National League
as far as run differential positive, you know, plus runs
are they for real first of all?
Speaker 2: And what are your thoughts in the game today?
Speaker 5: They absolutely are for real, and we have two really
good pictures on the mount today, and I'm Boyd does,
a guy who I wasn't really enamored with when he
was at Detroit back when, but this season he's having
a great season. As a matter of fact, on that
previously aforementioned curve of thirty, I have him ranked six,
where I have Max Freed ranked eight. So these are
two really top notch pitchers, two struggling bullpens, but we
have two really strong lineups. So this seems like a
gridlock to me when I looked at the individual props.
Max Freed over seventeen and a half outs, Will he
finish six innings? I think he could. I haven't bet
that yet. And then let's see, we got Matthew Boyd's
over fifteen and a half, So will he get one
out in the sixth inning? Yeah, I think he can.
So those are two things to consider. I haven't pulled
the trigger yet.
Speaker 1: By the way, there's a lot of support to bring
the fireball back, so you can see if it happens
here in about thirty minutes. Because I'm looking at the
live chat now, David Haviley's calling it a our party foul,
and he says that he wants.
Speaker 5: I would love to, but he.
Speaker 2: Wants to speak to the manager. He said, So, David,
the manager's in.
Speaker 5: The manager is in the chat.
Speaker 2: He might be in the live chat. The manager has
been done to come in the live chat. They want
to Paull.
Speaker 1: They want to know if they can at least vote
on this, Brandon, So maybe you can figure out how
they add to pall the stream yard here when you
do it at noon Eastern.
Speaker 5: That's above my above my pay grade.
Speaker 1: But I'll be honest, I think the managers doing that
a favor. You don't need no fire ball in your
belly at two am Tokyo too.
Speaker 2: You trying to get to bed.
Speaker 5: I do it anyway, so I might as well do
it on screen.
Speaker 1: You need to just disappear for a second, just every
time you pop back on the screen.
Speaker 5: I'm gonna have to lean over like this and do
it instead of showing people. But that's okay, that's fine
with me. But yeah, catch me in about a half
an hour after this show, guys.
Speaker 1: I want to ask you one final question real quick.
I want to say the other games for your live show.
But something they also pointed out in the in the
chat was that the Cubs have struggled against left handers
this year. Do you factor in righty versus left The
whole left handed starters stat is kind of useless because
that's maybe four or five innings of the game. But
you can dig deeper and see how a team has
done against all left handed pitchers or right handed pictures.
Of course, you got to make sure that lineup is
still in there today, so you know guys aren't sitting.
But do you even bother handicapping that or there's just
too much random variance in your opinion?
Speaker 5: Nope? What what difference does it make how they hit
against other left handers? I care how they hit against
That's a great point.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a great point.
Speaker 5: Right, Yeah, Why would you look at how they hit
against other guys? I mean, who cares? Doesn't know?
Speaker 1: That's great, fantastic in baseball. You're a former MLB scout,
and I know a lot of people use that their handicapping.
I'll talk about it in videos. I don't really mix
it in with my numbers either. It's one of those
things that kind of makes for good talking points. But
that's interesting. So you do not use the right handed
left handed stuff at all in your mix.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't. I don't care how they pitch or
how they hit against Casey Mayes if they're facing Max
Freed today, why would I care?
Speaker 2: Now?
Speaker 1: One thing I do look at and I talk about
a lot in my write ups, is the history of
the current lineup like that, not just the Cubs, but
the guys that are batting today against today's starter. Is
that something you do mix in? Uh, say that again,
the current guys in the lineup against the actual start
of that day.
Speaker 2: That is something you would look at. Yeah, because that's
what I use as well.
Speaker 5: But I don't overvalue it because when you when you
look up those stats, they could have been from like
three years ago. We don't know. But but yeah, I
do factor that in obviously. Yeah. I think you and
I have a similar approach, which is.
Speaker 1: Why and we both do well in baseball. So that's
why I love talking to you about it. And hey,
if you want to analyze every game of the board,
he did it last week. He has fireball and might
not have as much fireball to stay up till three
am Tokyo time, but he's going to.
Speaker 5: Try to go at least I've been banned, so I show.
I told him, if you if you start banning my my,
my clothes, then I'm going to revolt.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean if we if we have a regular
backdrop like this behind you, then we're going to think
something seriously wrong. So once again, check them out here
in about twenty two minutes live on wager Talk TV,
The Tokyo Brandon Show starring Tokyo Brandon. All the baseball,
you got it, we'll see in a little bit. All right, Hey,
that was Japan. Let's go to Thailand. Let's keep the
Asian thing going as we get back to Vegas here
to finish the Teddy covers in a moment, By the way,
the most Asian man in Las.
Speaker 2: Vegas, Theodor Sarvansky. Teddy covers on in a moment.
Speaker 1: But first, let's talk to Jesse Schule, who's coming from
Parts Unknown as well. And Jesse, we talked a lot
of baseball. We're going to talk some NFL with Teddy.
Speaker 2: Let's talk a little.
Speaker 1: Cop football with you. Shoot, let's start with Colorado. I
know you want to talk about the bottom feeders and
the sun belt. We'll get to that, but't I can't
even name them offhand right now. Let's talk with Colorado. Man,
you're egging me all with that sweatshirt. We got to
talk about the Buffalo's. They've been one of the most
intriguing teams in college football the last couple of years. Obviously,
they lost the big talent this year to the NFL.
What are you doing with them going forward this season?
Speaker 6: Well, first off, I don't know if you know the
story of how I got this jersey.
Speaker 2: No, I was curious about that.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm not a Colorado fan. In fact, I have
a bit of a love hate relationship with Colorado fans.
I don't hate their team. They seem to think I do.
I bet against them last year when they were on
the road at Central Florida and the Buffs fans were
telling me, Oh, the Buffs are going to win by
double digits, and I told them, I said, listen, if
the Buffs win by double digits, I'll get a jersey
and I'll wear it on the show. Well it's a
pretty nice jersey. So I don't feel like I lost
too bad there. But I don't hate the Buffs. But
I think sometimes buff get a little bit. They view
their team with rose colored glasses, as do most college
football fan bases that said, the Buffs did have a
great season last year. They certainly did a lot better
than I thought they would. But yeah, they got to
replace what a Heisman Trophy winner who played on both
sides of the ball. So I mean, it's like you're
losing two guys. And then Shadar Sanders. A lot of
people criticize him, he fell in the draft, but you
look at what he did behind an offensive line that
was terrible, and it was pretty impressive. And thinking that
Caden Salter from Liberty is going to come in and
be able to do that, I just don't see it.
I think the Buffs are in big trouble in Week
one against Georgia Tech, and whether or not they remain
competitive in the Big twelve is it remains to be seen.
Speaker 3: I'm not going to make a judgment on that.
Speaker 6: There probably will be good spots to bet on the Buffalos,
So I don't want to get too much flak from
Colorado fans, but I ain't touched him in Week one,
let's put it that way.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's I lost a lot of talent,
even with just a couple guys.
Speaker 2: That was a huge blow. More So, probably any team.
Speaker 1: I just don't know if Sanders has built that program
up enough yet where they can just reload, you know,
like powerhouse teams do in the offseason. Another team. I'm
really curious about. Florida State by far the biggest disappointment
maybe in modern college football history last year. So he
talked about Georgia Tech here a moment ago.
Speaker 2: I did call that, Steve.
Speaker 6: I didn't have my best college football season, but I
did call that one. I was on every show throughout
the summer saying I was taken the under in Florida
State mostly because of DJU. Bringing in DJU to replace
Jordan Travis was that was never going to work in
my opinion. Well, and we saw the results. But let
me ask you, Steve, what do you think of Norvell
as a coach? Would you say his tenure at Florida State,
despite last year, has been relatively successful.
Speaker 1: I don't know, It's just Florida State's been an enigma
to me now for like a decade. I have a
on of friends that went to Florida State. I was
actually a charter member in two thousand and four the
Seminal Club here in Lellisburg, Virginia, because there's somebody Florida
State alone, and we went to the UVA game that year.
Speaker 2: I actually remember going to that game. They've fallen so far.
Speaker 1: I went to the National title game with some buddies
in two thousand against Oklahoma. Perhaps the worst national title
game in history was fourteen of two. They vastly underachieved
in that game. So I've seen Florida State do this
over the decades. It's just so much time surprise. Yet, yeah, exactly,
I mean, it's that's the thing. They're so bipolar. And
even then, Jesse, I mean, do you even only take much.
We have no preseason to look at. They're hiding guys.
Most of these teams aren't even doing spring games anymore
because they don't want their guys seen. I've talked to coaches.
There's actually scouts and coaches watching the spring game to
try to see guys they can poach. With the transfer
porter on the NILS. It's it's so bizarre now. I mean,
my strategy in September. I think I went ten and
three last year in September and college football is I
played blowouts. I played the big boys against the mid majors.
You know, I stayed away from the Georgia Tech Florida
State game last year. I just don't have a read
for them right now. But what I can My concern
is am I going to even get a read from
the first couple of games?
Speaker 2: You know? What we even know after that?
Speaker 4: At?
Speaker 2: What to do with a team like that?
Speaker 1: Their offense was I talked about this in all the
other sports, including baseball, like the Rockies, how bad they
are all offensively.
Speaker 2: When you take out the home numbers, you.
Speaker 1: Can't bet bad offensive teams in any sport, And if
you look at the bottom feeders, they're all terrible offensively,
whether it's basketball, baseball, football, and Florida State's offense was
really bad last year. Do you feel like there's any
chance they've improved that fast?
Speaker 6: Well, let me give you these numbers Norville with Jordan
Travis at Florida State twenty four and six.
Speaker 2: Wow, good numbers.
Speaker 6: His record in games without Jordan Travis four and eighteen.
That's incredible, Jordan, Jordan Travis ain't coming around that corner.
And Thomas Castellanos and the other thing that we didn't
speak about is the call out.
Speaker 3: I'm sure you saw it.
Speaker 6: Media reports Thomas Castellanos said about Alabama. He called out Alabama.
He said, Nick Saban ain't there to save them. I
can't see them stopping me. Look at me last year,
I tore up the ACC by my own damn self.
And I mean one of the problems with Florida State
is Norvel brought in a bunch of transfers last year,
questionable character guys, and his team started off poorly and
the guys quit on him. So he goes out and
gets a guy in Thomas Castellanos, who left Boston College
in not so great circumstances. You could say he quit
on his team. And before he's even played a game,
he's calling out Alabama. That's a pretty selfish thing to do.
I'm sure that Mike Norvel was not happy. I'm sure
his teammates were not happy with that. And then to
say that he tore up the ACC by his own
damn self. So he's throwing his former teammates under the bus.
They've already hit back on Twitter and said they don't
see it that way. And when he says Nick Saban's
not going to be there to save him, is he
for me? With Kaylin de boer All, He's done Is
won championships at Washington and in the Mountain West with
Fresno State. His quarterbacks Michael Pennix Junior and Jay Hayner
have lit it up on offense, and he wins nine
games in his first season and beats Kirby Smart and
Georgia last year. I think people are sleeping on Alabama,
and I think Alabama is going to rip Florida State
a new one in week one. And I will tell
you this. I think come the game against Florida at
the end of the year, Norvelle's gone and so is Castellanos.
So how's that Florida State fans.
Speaker 1: I love it because I wanted to ask you about Alabama.
That was the next team I'm always curious about, and
you answered my question right there. Yeah, I was gonna say,
you talk about coaching differences. That's why I wanted to
go there. Debor is a guy that's won at every level,
and even when he hasn't necessarily had the best tut
he gets guys and they played for whereas the Florida
State guys, like you said, quit. That's the problem with
these low character type players. When things start to go bad,
they go bad. South fast. That's why you can't try
to catch those falling knives Florida State, especially.
Speaker 6: When you're talking about mercenaries that are signing for paychecks
and moving around for money and not going to the
school that their parents went to. And this kind of
the old school college football, and which is why a
guy like Nick Saban leaves and then you're left with
guys like Kiffen and de Boor and a different breed
of head coach in college football these days. But as
far as Alabama goes, I think they're being slept on.
It's not just Debor. Now you get Ryan Grubb back
at offensive coordinator. They're probably the best head coach offensive
coordinator duo in college football in my opinion. They bring
in or they don't bring in. They're planning on starting
Ty Simpson, who's a guy that nobody's really seen play
in Division one football, but he's been with the program
a few years, riding the Pine five star recruit, the
top quarterback recruit in the country in twenty twenty two.
And if Kaylin, de Boor and Ryan decide to go
into the season with this guy, there's got to read
the tea leaves. There's got to be a reason for it.
Alabama is not a poverty program if they wanted, if
they if they felt they needed a quarterback, they would
have gone out and got one. If they want to
roll with ty Simpson, I would I would expect him
to be pretty damn good this season. So yeah, I'm
high on Alabama coming into the season.
Speaker 1: Well, and that goes back to what I said. That's
a team that reloads. You know, they can still reload.
They don't have to rebuild every year. Florida State obviously
does not reload. Otherwise they would have been better last year.
They would have pulled in other guys to play. So
and we don't have a preseason once again in college football,
so you got to figure a team that's in house
like that has a nice edge in Week one against
a team that's bringing in transfer as the new players.
They've had a few scrimmages maybe, but they haven't played
a preseason game.
Speaker 2: They haven't played a real game. That's gonna be an
interesting one in Week one.
Speaker 1: And by the way, Jesse is doing a ton of
college football preview videos for game matchup season previews, and
if you like what you heard, you can get his
CFL which we didn't touch on free for the rest
of the season, right if you get the early Bird
right now for college.
Speaker 2: And pro football. Jesse tell us about it as a
wager Talk.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I've I've had some pretty good success with CFL.
I think I'm hitting around sixty five sixty six percent
with CFL since twenty twenty when I joined the company.
I don't play a lot of CFL games, maybe one
or two a week, but hit for I percentage and
we'll give you the CFL for free if you sign
up for NFL and college football. For those of you
who can't remember last year's playoffs, I dominated the NFL
playoffs last year, one big in the Super Bowl. So
looking to pick up where I left off last season
on the grid iron.
Speaker 1: It's Jesse Schule once get to the CFL for free
when you get his early Bird college and Pro football
season package right now at Wagertalk dot com. And Jesse
does a great job all year long with free play videos,
so make sure you subscribe here to wager Talk TV
on YouTube. And he clicked that bell for instance, Alart,
We're only a few hundred away from two hundred and
ten thousand subscribers here on wager Talk TV. So make
sure you're one of them and you click subscribe. All right, talk, some.
Speaker 2: College ball went around the world.
Speaker 1: We're gonna finish in Las Vegas, where we started with
Teddy Covers.
Speaker 2: Teddy's been waiting in the wings.
Speaker 1: Thank you for being patient, Theodore, I said, if I
told people we had Theodore Servansky, nobody would have stayed,
but Teddy Covers will stay.
Speaker 4: I still thank Rob Veno to this day every time
I see him, like, thank you, Rob. Rob is the
one who called me Teddy Covers for the first time,
and it I mean, like the first time he called
it to me. The next day other people were using it,
and by a week later, I'm like, yeah, I guess.
Speaker 2: I'm Teddy Covers now. I love it.
Speaker 4: So it's all Rob Veno. I came out here as
Ted Savaransky and it just didn't didn't have that same
ring to it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, my name. We've been doing it long enough, Rob.
Speaker 1: I was on websites with you twenty some years ago
where you were Ted Servanski on the website. So never
Theodore Sravansky. That sounds like a Nobel laureate. It's a
little too famous.
Speaker 4: I mean, the one that never called me theatre was
my mom, and that's only when she was mad.
Speaker 1: That's when you're in trouble. That's exactly right. I knew
that without asking. All right, So we talked some college football.
We'll let you run here in a few minutes. Let's
finish it off with some NFL. You're doing a great
job all year long. You've done the season win reports.
I mean this whole summer. You've been doing a great
job week after week breaking down some different teams. I
love where you went by the way last week with
my not my Washington Commanders. That was one that jumped
out to me months ago as an under or pass.
They's so vastly overachieved last year. If you missed that breakdown,
watched last week's last call replay here with Ariel. He
did the Commanders, talked a little about the Chiefs as well.
Dolphins were brought up. But this week we're going to
do the two New York teams. I believe, right, Giants.
Speaker 4: Yeah, just yes of interesting teams to talk about, and
I thought the two New York teams are worthy of
some mention. They're in the New York teams, you know,
and of course they both think you can find again
the one thing that's very different this year compared to
previous years, and we talked about a betting marketplace that's
always dynamic and always changing. There's a lot more alternative
lines this year when it comes to win totals, and
I've ever seen before, ever, ever, And obviously this is
my twenty fifth season where I put on an NFL
win report. Win reports have done pretty well over the
years one O, three and fifty two, Lifetime seventeen and
four with the five percent big tickets, but you can
find vary and so if you have opinions on these teams,
you can bet plus prices, you know, at virtually on
virtually every squad. And you know, we say the Giants,
I'll call them aligned five and a half, whereas the
Jets are more aligned at six. But you can find
both teams at five and a half. You can find
the Jets at six and a half, you can find
the Giants at four and a half. We're not talking
about teams that are expected to be competing for playoff
spots or Super Bowl appearances in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the Giants are interesting because you either
talking about the Commanders. I actually did a sports range
late last night on Sports Grid, and Cam Short and
I were talking about the Commanders again, and we said,
you know, the Eagles will be tough, Cowboys maybe have
some upside, but Camp said, Giants are terrible again, and
you know, even if five and a half is hard
to make a case for him.
Speaker 2: I was like, they can't be much worse, but so
if you had to play one of the New York teams.
Speaker 1: Though maybe more upset with the Jets than the Giants.
I mean, what are your thoughts for sure? I mean, look,
the Giants win three and fourteen. Last year, they went
six and eleven and twenty three. They were a playoff
team the year before because they stole a bunch of
games that they didn't deserve. Crazy A clients and I
cashing over with the Giants that year. We got there
with room to spare.
Speaker 4: And I'm still not convinced they were a right side,
but the schedule was easy enough. In twenty twenty two,
they went four and thirteen and twenty twenty one, six
and ten in twenty twenty four and twelve, and twenty nineteen,
five and eleven and twenty eighteen, three and thirteen and
twenty seventeen. The last time this team was actually good
was twenty sixteen with Eli Manning throwing a Victor Cruz
and OBJ. You know, you have a head coach on
the hot seat and office equator on the hot seat
at GM on the hot seat. You know, so lots
of scenarios in which the end of the season everyone's
fired and you know they're playing out the string and
hoping for another high draft choice. Obviously at the quarterback position,
Russell Wilson, Yes, Jackson dart Maybe there's been a lot
of intrigue about Jackson dartboard. You talking about a rookie
QB and not a first round rookie QB or sorry,
late first round rookie GB was either fifth or sixth
quarterback taken, those aren't guys who I tend to trust.
In their first year as starters. They had money to
spending free agency. Absolutely, they spend a lot of money
in free agency, lots of signings. That being said, you
look at the schedule. They play what nine games against
teams at eleven plus wins?
Speaker 2: Last year?
Speaker 4: They play eleven games against teams expected to have a
winning record this year. It's the single toughest schedule in
the NFL for twenty twenty five based on this year's
win totals. Now, compare that to the Jets. All right,
and the Jets obviously they went five to twelve last year,
seven to ten of the year before, seven to ten
the year before. They're not being aligned as you know,
So they haven't been as bottom feedery as the Giants
in recent years. Last year they're the number two defense
in the NFL and yards per play allowed only Philadelphia
was better. New head coach, new defense quarter, new offense careator.
So they had that burst of energy in the off season.
You knows of free agent signings, I thought the Jets
did ever. You know, again, Justin Fields is a guy
who's going to attract a lot of attention one where
the other negative or positive. Oh Justin Field stinks. Oh,
there's upside for Justin Fields. In my opinion, there's upside
with Justin Fields. We are talking about a top tier
quarterback in college quarterback who's highly thought of coming in
the league, who hasn't really walked into a positive situation yet.
And I don't know just the positive situation. Obviously they're lying,
you know, five and a half six win team. But
look on paper, they should be decent. The defense should
be decent. And you look at their schedule, middle of
the pack SOS home games down the stretch, Carolina, Cleveland, Atlanta,
My am New England. I'll call them all winnable. They
get Aaron Rodgers week one, I'll call that a winnable
games over to the markets. So of the two New
York teams, if I'm playing one over one under, it'd
be Jets over Giants side.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Fields is an interesting guy because obviously he
was horrendous initially at Chicago, but I did state start
to see some upside with him at times last year,
and you kind of feel like maybe a change of
scenery for a guy like that that's got a few
years in the league now could be good. You just
wonder that New York City media probably not the best
change of scenery for me. You'd be better off going
somewhere quiet, you know, small, Not that there's really any
small media markets, I guess in the NFL anymore, But yeah,
this could be As I agree with you, I think
there's some upside. And we pointed that out last time
we were talking about the Giants. They did not get
any benefit from the schedule this year. Like you just said,
it's fascinated that the hardest rated schedule based on season wins.
That's also shows how difficult that season win total is
going to be for them to get up and over even.
Speaker 2: At five and a half. Real quick toy.
Speaker 1: On the way out there, you mentioned all the alternative
lines out there, the different prices you can find. Explain
to people once again what a haf a game is
worth from your numbers in the NFL when you're you know,
you're looking at saying taking a you know, over six
and a half versus an under seven, you know, when
you have a choice between two half wins like that.
Speaker 4: So the rule of thumb is fifty cents for a
half win, all right, fifty cents worth of juice. But
in actuality, you can price it differently based on where
the win total is at four and a half, five,
five and a half, the low end of the market,
or at the high end of the market ten and
a half, eleven, eleven and a half. Those half wins
are worth a little bit more. You say they're worth
sixty cents, sixty five cents, seventy cents because it's harder
to get over those top totals, and it's harder to
get to say, under those low totals. But for your
middle of the pack teams, six and a half minus
one fifty to the over is a moral equivalent of
seven at even money, or eight and a half under
minus one twenty is the moral equivalent of eight under
plus one point thirty, so approximately fifty cents. Now, when
you talk about season long bets, I tend to one
of those bets to win. So I'm willing to lay
a little bit more juice in general to turn a
potential push into a potential win. And look, we love that.
I never complained about a push with the season win.
Speaker 2: I really do.
Speaker 4: Once in a while you do. But in general, when
my season win's gonna push, it's I wasn't right, you know,
So I'm all right. I we got out of it,
no harm, no foul, We got our money back. But
in general, you want these to win. So I'm gonna
lay a little extra juice to get the half as
opposed to the push number when I can, because it's
it makes sense to do that given how tight these
numbers actually are, how tight this marketplace.
Speaker 1: Is makes a lot of sense. So once again, in general,
about fifty cents, maybe sixty cents or more on the
extreme numbers high or low. So if you're shopping around
when you as you should, with multiple books, multiple numbers,
that gives you little bit of a barometer of which
one to choose when you're making your season win bets.
And once again, if you want Teddy's complete NFL season
win Report, it's this twenty fifth year that he's done,
this twenty fifth season because he started in two thousand
and one one O three and fifty two with three pushes.
Speaker 2: He said, three pushes, So they do occasionally happen.
Speaker 1: And most of these total sportsbooks put out, of course,
are half wins because they don't want to push either.
They don't want to have to refund people after six months.
They want to win our a loss as well. Sixty
six percent Teddy's incredible, but that seventeen and four eighty
one percent mark is remarkable. And I believe you had
the Saints last year undercorrect as your five percent big ticket,
and you've got another strong one going this year. I
believe people can still get the report for free, as
crazy as that sounds, right, tell them how to do so.
Speaker 4: It's easy. Just sign up for my NFL Season Boom
and then you'll get every play every day from Week
one of the preseason through the end of the Super Bowl. Obviously,
the NFL's support we take very seriously. The NFL support
we've had a lot of success with. And the prices
are not ridiculous. You know, value prices right now check
out my page w dot Buzz, get backslash TC and
again the full season package includes the win Report. You'll
get it today, get on board and again reasonably priced
when I talk about thousands of dollars, which some people
think it should be, but you check it right now
on my pagewt dot Buzz, Backslash TC.
Speaker 1: Teddy Covers always great to see him. Once you get
this thing, you can get this season Wins Report singles
a single purchase if you want just that, or you
can get it free with his NFL package. Both options
are available right now at wager talk dot com. And
thank you everybody for watching aerofs. We'll be back next
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