Speaker 1: Our chief meteorologist from Fox thirty one, Dave Fraser. Dave Fraser,
Speaker 1: how are you today?
Speaker 2: I'm good. How you doing, Mandy, I'm doing well.
Speaker 1: I heard a little rumor that we're going to get
Speaker 1: some fall tomorrow. Like sweater weather is right around the corner.
Speaker 2: It's a brief duck around the corner, and then we'll
Speaker 2: take another corner and go back to that Warman drive.
Speaker 1: Yeah, day, it's.
Speaker 2: A little turn. Yeah, a Rod wasn't happy with Meaty ourselves.
Speaker 1: We count on you to fix the weather the way
Speaker 1: we like it, Dave, not just the way you're predicting.
Speaker 2: We need it.
Speaker 3: Like, so, what are we looking at?
Speaker 1: Nice day tomorrow and then back up for the weekend.
Speaker 1: Is it going to be that fast?
Speaker 2: It won't be that fast. So today we're getting a
Speaker 2: seasonal correction. Last couple of days we've been in the
Speaker 2: hot nineties. It was ninety three on Sunday and ninety
Speaker 2: three on Labor Day, ninety four yesterday. So today we're
Speaker 2: going to be around season which is eighty four, and
Speaker 2: then tomorrow we'll be in the load of mid seventy
Speaker 2: so refreshing. Yeah, And so we've got two coal fronts
Speaker 2: coming in one is actually coming in right now. Out
Speaker 2: you'll look outside, you'll see the building clouds. We should
Speaker 2: start to get into showers and thunderstorms here pretty quickly,
Speaker 2: which will take us into the evening. They will be scattered,
Speaker 2: and some of that could linger past midnight into early
Speaker 2: Thursday before kind of drizzling showers wrap up with some
Speaker 2: late day sunshine. But you'll feel the refreshing change tomorrow.
Speaker 2: And then the other quarter that we'll turn is to
Speaker 2: head back to the upper eighties and near ninety degrees,
Speaker 2: but it'll take several days to inch back in that direction,
Speaker 2: so lower eighties, mid eighties uper ratings and then maybe
Speaker 2: close to ninety degrees early next week. And once we
Speaker 2: get passed tonight and tomorrow morning's chance for rain. Unfortunately,
Speaker 2: the forecast does look dry, although that's what we expect
Speaker 2: in September, one of the best months of the year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So any anything on a ten day, two week
Speaker 1: outlook that's positive or we just going to stick around
Speaker 1: with this kind of weather through September.
Speaker 2: You know, I, as always before I get on here
Speaker 2: with you, I do the six to ten day, which
Speaker 2: is just a little beyond our normal seven day that
Speaker 2: we display on TV. I do the eighth to fourteen day,
Speaker 2: I do the one month, the three months. I look
Speaker 2: at all of it, and everything as it has all
Speaker 2: summer long, continues to show above normal temperatures and below
Speaker 2: normal precipitation. And while we talked about this in the past,
Speaker 2: that never tells you anything about the day to day weather,
Speaker 2: that pattern has certainly proved out. We ended up with
Speaker 2: the second warmest June an average July for temperatures, fifth
Speaker 2: warmest August, and second warmest summer on record for Denver,
Speaker 2: only behind the hottest summer, which was twenty twelve.
Speaker 1: Now to be clear, and I actually sent you a
Speaker 1: text about this the other day. On record is since
Speaker 1: eighteen seventy two, and it's first reading to me that
Speaker 1: we don't clarify that because on record sounds.
Speaker 3: Like, well, the beginning of record keeping went back thousands
Speaker 3: of years, and when you consider how cyclical weather is
Speaker 3: in ten thousand year and one hundred thousand year, you know,
Speaker 3: spans to say.
Speaker 1: On record, I think it gives an impression that people
Speaker 1: that this is like a all time and that's not
Speaker 1: at all what we're talking about.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a tough cell, right because of exactly what
Speaker 2: you said, the cyclical nature of thousands and thousands of years.
Speaker 2: The only thing we can compare it to is that
Speaker 2: record of history, and it is a short one, but
Speaker 2: it's the only thing we have to compare. And in
Speaker 2: Denver it's a little frustrating because I get this from
Speaker 2: viewers all the time. Denver's weather records have been kept
Speaker 2: in four different places. Twice downtown, then it's Stapleton for
Speaker 2: the longest time, and then I think it was in
Speaker 2: nineteen ninety one it transitioned over to DA the airport,
Speaker 2: which is obviously removed from downtown. So there's always this
Speaker 2: speculation if we're breaking a record that was set at
Speaker 2: the airport, or we've breaken a record that was set downtown.
Speaker 2: Of course you have to look at what year it
Speaker 2: was set in, but it's the only body that we
Speaker 2: have to be able to compare. The other thing is technology.
Speaker 2: Think about mercury thermometers back in the eighteen hundred versus
Speaker 2: today's you know, digital memes, and there's rounding of temperatures,
Speaker 2: you know, so when you look at hourly observations, you'll
Speaker 2: see ninety six point two, ninety six point four, ninety
Speaker 2: six point eight. And then you do all the averaging
Speaker 2: for your monthly averages, taking all the highs and the lows,
Speaker 2: adding them together, dividing out by the number of days
Speaker 2: in a month to come up with an average to
Speaker 2: be able to compare month to month to month over
Speaker 2: a series of years. So listen. It is not a
Speaker 2: perfect science, but it does give you a little bit
Speaker 2: of an understanding. To say, Denver's average is eighty four
Speaker 2: today and I tell you it's going to be ninety four.
Speaker 2: I think you can make the comparison. That's a hot day.
Speaker 2: Yeah it is.
Speaker 1: And I think in Denver, moving that weather station from
Speaker 1: downtown to the airport, it is significant, maybe more significant
Speaker 1: here because the airport's on the planes, right, I mean,
Speaker 1: it's it's like a completely different weather area in a
Speaker 1: lot of ways. And I do think that those changes
Speaker 1: are probably more jarring than they would be if we
Speaker 1: move from a similar climate to another similar climate at
Speaker 1: a different place. I mean, do you find that to
Speaker 1: be true?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would agree with you on that one hundred percent.
Speaker 2: As a matter of fact, on the National Weather Service website,
Speaker 2: if you look for under their climate tap, you'll find
Speaker 2: a snow comparison, and what it will do is it
Speaker 2: will show you contours of total snow over averages for
Speaker 2: where the records were kept, and you can see the
Speaker 2: snow totals are a little higher when they were downtown
Speaker 2: and a little less as you move out towards the airport.
Speaker 2: And that has to do with exactly what you said,
Speaker 2: the topography. It's not a huge difference. We're not talking
Speaker 2: feet of difference between where the sites were originally recorded
Speaker 2: versus the airport, which is, you know, nineteen miles away.
Speaker 2: But you can see those subtle differences and it has
Speaker 2: to do with the sloping of the topography. The closer
Speaker 2: you get to the flotals in the mountains, obviously the
Speaker 2: totals are deeper the more you move out into the
Speaker 2: planes that are a little bit lower. So you know,
Speaker 2: no surprising to see that. It is not a perfect,
Speaker 2: as I said, a perfect opportunity to compare, but it
Speaker 2: is the only comparison we have.
Speaker 1: Well, on that note, I sent you an email. Did
Speaker 1: you get Craig's the email that I a forwarded to you.
Speaker 2: I did, and it's top the list of Craigs and
Speaker 2: he pulled from both weather dot Com and Craig's up
Speaker 2: in Longmant Craig for thanks for sending him the question.
Speaker 2: He pulled Wikipedia averages for Denver, and he also went
Speaker 2: to weather dot com for averages for Denver. So I
Speaker 2: pulled up the list that he sent. He pulled it.
Speaker 2: The problem is anybody can edit Wikipedia, as you know.
Speaker 2: So I went in and I looked just for comparison
Speaker 2: to see and what I can't figure out is if
Speaker 2: the numbers Craig included in his spreadsheet for June, July,
Speaker 2: and August he was looking at the summer of twenty
Speaker 2: twenty four was from a site possibly in downtown Denver,
Speaker 2: versus the quote unquote out at the airport. So I'll
Speaker 2: give you for instance. So on the first of August
Speaker 2: he reported Denver hit one hundred and one. On the
Speaker 2: second of August, his report shows one hundred. Well, the
Speaker 2: airport reported ninety nine on the first and one hundred
Speaker 2: and one on the second, and then he had ninety six.
Speaker 2: They had ninety six, and then he had ninety nine,
Speaker 2: they had one hundred and two. So the numbers don't
Speaker 2: jive r the averages are going to be very different.
Speaker 1: Well, I think that the lesson is everything from Wikipedia
Speaker 1: should be looked at with a skeptical eye.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, yeah, absolutely, and if you want, if you want official.
Speaker 2: Despite everything we just talked about, the only record keeping
Speaker 2: we have that is considered official based on the National
Speaker 2: Weather Service, who is the record keeping organization for weather
Speaker 2: across the country, is that site out at the airport,
Speaker 2: and the official record can be found on their website.
Speaker 2: And that's where I would go to get the official
Speaker 2: numbers to the.
Speaker 1: Texter you just sent. No, Mandy, the planes are on
Speaker 1: the airport, haha, sir or madam haha.
Speaker 3: Ralph asked a question.
Speaker 1: That I was going to ask you because I heard
Speaker 1: a little news story about this. Are we currently in
Speaker 1: La Nina or El Nino or neither? And what can
Speaker 1: we expect for winter?
Speaker 2: In that respect, we are in La Nina kind of
Speaker 2: heading towards a neutral and the outlook for winter. I
Speaker 2: don't know that there's been a conclusion yet whether we'll
Speaker 2: slip back to Lamina. We will determine that in the
Speaker 2: coming month to what impact it may have. It does have.
Speaker 2: Lamina and El Nino do have different impacts to ease
Speaker 2: versus west across Colorado, and who benefits and who doesn't.
Speaker 2: We should be able to work that out. Those are
Speaker 2: numbers that come out all the time. As a matter
Speaker 2: of fact, when I look at the climate data for
Speaker 2: the outlooks that I was just telling you about six
Speaker 2: to ten, the eight to fourteen, the three months, all
Speaker 2: of that is based on where we are when it
Speaker 2: comes to those types of patterns for El Nino Lamina.
Speaker 2: So for right now, you know the next November persistent.
Speaker 2: You know they're looking at Lamina to emerge in September,
Speaker 2: and so we may be leaning more towards La Nina
Speaker 2: from September through November. We'll have to wait and see
Speaker 2: if that changes a little bit for the latter part
Speaker 2: of winter, which made the December, January and februe. Don't
Speaker 2: discount March in April for us here in Denver personnel and.
Speaker 1: For that person who's in there cargoing. But what's the
Speaker 1: difference between La Nina and El Nino.
Speaker 2: It's the difference in the temperatures of the Pacific waters.
Speaker 2: La Nina colder, El Nino warmer, and it changes the
Speaker 2: jet streams squirrel across the Pacific, and and that's the
Speaker 2: storm track that comes into the United States. The cat
Speaker 2: the continuous United States from west to east. So depending
Speaker 2: on what the ocean waters are doing, the jet stream
Speaker 2: will kind of fluctuate a little bit, and the movement
Speaker 2: of that jet can change across Colorado and how it
Speaker 2: comes over the mountains from more of a northwesternly flow
Speaker 2: to a southern track. Those differences in the tracks across
Speaker 2: the state from north to south highly influence where storms
Speaker 2: will set up and who will benefit from those different
Speaker 2: storm systems. So a southern tract will benefit the front range,
Speaker 2: a northwestern tract will benefit more. Northwestern Colorado will be
Speaker 2: a little drier. And it also influences temperatures as well.
Speaker 2: So those things are taken in, but they're like the
Speaker 2: long range outlook. It's not a day to day. We
Speaker 2: leable the day to day. We get into the nitty gritty,
Speaker 2: we get into the details. We're looking for the hard numbers.
Speaker 2: Then when it starts, when it ends, how much you're
Speaker 2: shoveling all of that kind of stuff, And you can.
Speaker 1: Find out all that nitty gritty every single day on
Speaker 1: Fox thirty one. They're great meteorology staff, can keep you
Speaker 1: up to date, and Dave Frasier, we appreciate you. We'll
Speaker 1: talk to again next week.
Speaker 2: Great weekend, weekend ed all right, that is Dave Fraser