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<v Speaker 1>Our chief meteorologist from Fox thirty one, Dave Fraser. Dave Fraser,

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<v Speaker 1>how are you today?

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<v Speaker 2>I'm good. How you doing, Mandy, I'm doing well.

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<v Speaker 1>I heard a little rumor that we're going to get

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<v Speaker 1>some fall tomorrow. Like sweater weather is right around the corner.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a brief duck around the corner, and then we'll

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<v Speaker 2>take another corner and go back to that Warman drive.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, day, it's.

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<v Speaker 2>A little turn. Yeah, a Rod wasn't happy with Meaty ourselves.

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<v Speaker 1>We count on you to fix the weather the way

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<v Speaker 1>we like it, Dave, not just the way you're predicting.

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<v Speaker 2>We need it.

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<v Speaker 3>Like, so, what are we looking at?

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<v Speaker 1>Nice day tomorrow and then back up for the weekend.

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<v Speaker 1>Is it going to be that fast?

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<v Speaker 2>It won't be that fast. So today we're getting a

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<v Speaker 2>seasonal correction. Last couple of days we've been in the

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<v Speaker 2>hot nineties. It was ninety three on Sunday and ninety

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<v Speaker 2>three on Labor Day, ninety four yesterday. So today we're

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<v Speaker 2>going to be around season which is eighty four, and

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<v Speaker 2>then tomorrow we'll be in the load of mid seventy

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<v Speaker 2>so refreshing. Yeah, And so we've got two coal fronts

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<v Speaker 2>coming in one is actually coming in right now. Out

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<v Speaker 2>you'll look outside, you'll see the building clouds. We should

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<v Speaker 2>start to get into showers and thunderstorms here pretty quickly,

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<v Speaker 2>which will take us into the evening. They will be scattered,

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<v Speaker 2>and some of that could linger past midnight into early

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<v Speaker 2>Thursday before kind of drizzling showers wrap up with some

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<v Speaker 2>late day sunshine. But you'll feel the refreshing change tomorrow.

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<v Speaker 2>And then the other quarter that we'll turn is to

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<v Speaker 2>head back to the upper eighties and near ninety degrees,

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<v Speaker 2>but it'll take several days to inch back in that direction,

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<v Speaker 2>so lower eighties, mid eighties uper ratings and then maybe

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<v Speaker 2>close to ninety degrees early next week. And once we

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<v Speaker 2>get passed tonight and tomorrow morning's chance for rain. Unfortunately,

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<v Speaker 2>the forecast does look dry, although that's what we expect

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<v Speaker 2>in September, one of the best months of the year.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, So any anything on a ten day, two week

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<v Speaker 1>outlook that's positive or we just going to stick around

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<v Speaker 1>with this kind of weather through September.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, I, as always before I get on here

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<v Speaker 2>with you, I do the six to ten day, which

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<v Speaker 2>is just a little beyond our normal seven day that

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<v Speaker 2>we display on TV. I do the eighth to fourteen day,

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<v Speaker 2>I do the one month, the three months. I look

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<v Speaker 2>at all of it, and everything as it has all

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<v Speaker 2>summer long, continues to show above normal temperatures and below

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<v Speaker 2>normal precipitation. And while we talked about this in the past,

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<v Speaker 2>that never tells you anything about the day to day weather,

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<v Speaker 2>that pattern has certainly proved out. We ended up with

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<v Speaker 2>the second warmest June an average July for temperatures, fifth

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<v Speaker 2>warmest August, and second warmest summer on record for Denver,

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<v Speaker 2>only behind the hottest summer, which was twenty twelve.

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<v Speaker 1>Now to be clear, and I actually sent you a

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<v Speaker 1>text about this the other day. On record is since

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<v Speaker 1>eighteen seventy two, and it's first reading to me that

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<v Speaker 1>we don't clarify that because on record sounds.

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<v Speaker 3>Like, well, the beginning of record keeping went back thousands

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<v Speaker 3>of years, and when you consider how cyclical weather is

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<v Speaker 3>in ten thousand year and one hundred thousand year, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>spans to say.

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<v Speaker 1>On record, I think it gives an impression that people

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<v Speaker 1>that this is like a all time and that's not

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<v Speaker 1>at all what we're talking about.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's a tough cell, right because of exactly what

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<v Speaker 2>you said, the cyclical nature of thousands and thousands of years.

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<v Speaker 2>The only thing we can compare it to is that

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<v Speaker 2>record of history, and it is a short one, but

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<v Speaker 2>it's the only thing we have to compare. And in

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<v Speaker 2>Denver it's a little frustrating because I get this from

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<v Speaker 2>viewers all the time. Denver's weather records have been kept

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<v Speaker 2>in four different places. Twice downtown, then it's Stapleton for

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<v Speaker 2>the longest time, and then I think it was in

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<v Speaker 2>nineteen ninety one it transitioned over to DA the airport,

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<v Speaker 2>which is obviously removed from downtown. So there's always this

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<v Speaker 2>speculation if we're breaking a record that was set at

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<v Speaker 2>the airport, or we've breaken a record that was set downtown.

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<v Speaker 2>Of course you have to look at what year it

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<v Speaker 2>was set in, but it's the only body that we

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<v Speaker 2>have to be able to compare. The other thing is technology.

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<v Speaker 2>Think about mercury thermometers back in the eighteen hundred versus

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<v Speaker 2>today's you know, digital memes, and there's rounding of temperatures,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, so when you look at hourly observations, you'll

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<v Speaker 2>see ninety six point two, ninety six point four, ninety

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<v Speaker 2>six point eight. And then you do all the averaging

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<v Speaker 2>for your monthly averages, taking all the highs and the lows,

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<v Speaker 2>adding them together, dividing out by the number of days

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<v Speaker 2>in a month to come up with an average to

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<v Speaker 2>be able to compare month to month to month over

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<v Speaker 2>a series of years. So listen. It is not a

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<v Speaker 2>perfect science, but it does give you a little bit

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<v Speaker 2>of an understanding. To say, Denver's average is eighty four

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<v Speaker 2>today and I tell you it's going to be ninety four.

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<v Speaker 2>I think you can make the comparison. That's a hot day.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah it is.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think in Denver, moving that weather station from

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<v Speaker 1>downtown to the airport, it is significant, maybe more significant

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<v Speaker 1>here because the airport's on the planes, right, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's like a completely different weather area in a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of ways. And I do think that those changes

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<v Speaker 1>are probably more jarring than they would be if we

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<v Speaker 1>move from a similar climate to another similar climate at

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<v Speaker 1>a different place. I mean, do you find that to

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<v Speaker 1>be true?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I would agree with you on that one hundred percent.

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<v Speaker 2>As a matter of fact, on the National Weather Service website,

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<v Speaker 2>if you look for under their climate tap, you'll find

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<v Speaker 2>a snow comparison, and what it will do is it

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<v Speaker 2>will show you contours of total snow over averages for

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<v Speaker 2>where the records were kept, and you can see the

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<v Speaker 2>snow totals are a little higher when they were downtown

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<v Speaker 2>and a little less as you move out towards the airport.

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<v Speaker 2>And that has to do with exactly what you said,

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<v Speaker 2>the topography. It's not a huge difference. We're not talking

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<v Speaker 2>feet of difference between where the sites were originally recorded

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<v Speaker 2>versus the airport, which is, you know, nineteen miles away.

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<v Speaker 2>But you can see those subtle differences and it has

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<v Speaker 2>to do with the sloping of the topography. The closer

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<v Speaker 2>you get to the flotals in the mountains, obviously the

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<v Speaker 2>totals are deeper the more you move out into the

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<v Speaker 2>planes that are a little bit lower. So you know,

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<v Speaker 2>no surprising to see that. It is not a perfect,

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<v Speaker 2>as I said, a perfect opportunity to compare, but it

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<v Speaker 2>is the only comparison we have.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, on that note, I sent you an email. Did

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<v Speaker 1>you get Craig's the email that I a forwarded to you.

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<v Speaker 2>I did, and it's top the list of Craigs and

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<v Speaker 2>he pulled from both weather dot Com and Craig's up

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<v Speaker 2>in Longmant Craig for thanks for sending him the question.

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<v Speaker 2>He pulled Wikipedia averages for Denver, and he also went

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<v Speaker 2>to weather dot com for averages for Denver. So I

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<v Speaker 2>pulled up the list that he sent. He pulled it.

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<v Speaker 2>The problem is anybody can edit Wikipedia, as you know.

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<v Speaker 2>So I went in and I looked just for comparison

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<v Speaker 2>to see and what I can't figure out is if

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<v Speaker 2>the numbers Craig included in his spreadsheet for June, July,

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<v Speaker 2>and August he was looking at the summer of twenty

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<v Speaker 2>twenty four was from a site possibly in downtown Denver,

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<v Speaker 2>versus the quote unquote out at the airport. So I'll

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<v Speaker 2>give you for instance. So on the first of August

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<v Speaker 2>he reported Denver hit one hundred and one. On the

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<v Speaker 2>second of August, his report shows one hundred. Well, the

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<v Speaker 2>airport reported ninety nine on the first and one hundred

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<v Speaker 2>and one on the second, and then he had ninety six.

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<v Speaker 2>They had ninety six, and then he had ninety nine,

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<v Speaker 2>they had one hundred and two. So the numbers don't

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<v Speaker 2>jive r the averages are going to be very different.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I think that the lesson is everything from Wikipedia

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<v Speaker 1>should be looked at with a skeptical eye.

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<v Speaker 2>Absolutely, yeah, absolutely, and if you want, if you want official.

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<v Speaker 2>Despite everything we just talked about, the only record keeping

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<v Speaker 2>we have that is considered official based on the National

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<v Speaker 2>Weather Service, who is the record keeping organization for weather

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<v Speaker 2>across the country, is that site out at the airport,

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<v Speaker 2>and the official record can be found on their website.

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<v Speaker 2>And that's where I would go to get the official

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<v Speaker 2>numbers to the.

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<v Speaker 1>Texter you just sent. No, Mandy, the planes are on

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<v Speaker 1>the airport, haha, sir or madam haha.

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<v Speaker 3>Ralph asked a question.

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<v Speaker 1>That I was going to ask you because I heard

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<v Speaker 1>a little news story about this. Are we currently in

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<v Speaker 1>La Nina or El Nino or neither? And what can

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<v Speaker 1>we expect for winter?

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<v Speaker 2>In that respect, we are in La Nina kind of

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<v Speaker 2>heading towards a neutral and the outlook for winter. I

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<v Speaker 2>don't know that there's been a conclusion yet whether we'll

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<v Speaker 2>slip back to Lamina. We will determine that in the

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<v Speaker 2>coming month to what impact it may have. It does have.

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<v Speaker 2>Lamina and El Nino do have different impacts to ease

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<v Speaker 2>versus west across Colorado, and who benefits and who doesn't.

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<v Speaker 2>We should be able to work that out. Those are

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<v Speaker 2>numbers that come out all the time. As a matter

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<v Speaker 2>of fact, when I look at the climate data for

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<v Speaker 2>the outlooks that I was just telling you about six

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<v Speaker 2>to ten, the eight to fourteen, the three months, all

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<v Speaker 2>of that is based on where we are when it

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<v Speaker 2>comes to those types of patterns for El Nino Lamina.

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<v Speaker 2>So for right now, you know the next November persistent.

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<v Speaker 2>You know they're looking at Lamina to emerge in September,

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<v Speaker 2>and so we may be leaning more towards La Nina

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<v Speaker 2>from September through November. We'll have to wait and see

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<v Speaker 2>if that changes a little bit for the latter part

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<v Speaker 2>of winter, which made the December, January and februe. Don't

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<v Speaker 2>discount March in April for us here in Denver personnel and.

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<v Speaker 1>For that person who's in there cargoing. But what's the

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<v Speaker 1>difference between La Nina and El Nino.

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<v Speaker 2>It's the difference in the temperatures of the Pacific waters.

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<v Speaker 2>La Nina colder, El Nino warmer, and it changes the

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<v Speaker 2>jet streams squirrel across the Pacific, and and that's the

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<v Speaker 2>storm track that comes into the United States. The cat

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<v Speaker 2>the continuous United States from west to east. So depending

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<v Speaker 2>on what the ocean waters are doing, the jet stream

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<v Speaker 2>will kind of fluctuate a little bit, and the movement

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<v Speaker 2>of that jet can change across Colorado and how it

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<v Speaker 2>comes over the mountains from more of a northwesternly flow

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<v Speaker 2>to a southern track. Those differences in the tracks across

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<v Speaker 2>the state from north to south highly influence where storms

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<v Speaker 2>will set up and who will benefit from those different

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<v Speaker 2>storm systems. So a southern tract will benefit the front range,

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<v Speaker 2>a northwestern tract will benefit more. Northwestern Colorado will be

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<v Speaker 2>a little drier. And it also influences temperatures as well.

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<v Speaker 2>So those things are taken in, but they're like the

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<v Speaker 2>long range outlook. It's not a day to day. We

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<v Speaker 2>leable the day to day. We get into the nitty gritty,

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<v Speaker 2>we get into the details. We're looking for the hard numbers.

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<v Speaker 2>Then when it starts, when it ends, how much you're

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<v Speaker 2>shoveling all of that kind of stuff, And you can.

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<v Speaker 1>Find out all that nitty gritty every single day on

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<v Speaker 1>Fox thirty one. They're great meteorology staff, can keep you

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<v Speaker 1>up to date, and Dave Frasier, we appreciate you. We'll

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<v Speaker 1>talk to again next week.

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<v Speaker 2>Great weekend, weekend ed all right, that is Dave Fraser