Speaker 1: This is the in This League Fantasy Podcast network, in
This League Fantasy Baseball podcast online at in this League
dot com. Now here's your host, Bogman and the Welsh.
Speaker 2: What's up, Friendles, and welcome in too the in This
League Fantasy Baseball Podcast. I'm Wels, that's Bogman. We got
lots of breakdown today. We've got a bunch of injuries
which is poopy. We've got the two start pitchers which
we got to take a look at for next week,
and we are going to be doing kind of finally
figuring out a structure of like the middle portions of
what we do in the Thursday episodes. We're gonna be
doing a picture breakdown and we've got some really interesting
era versus expected RA differences and K percentage you're over
year changers. So we're gonna have a little bit more
focus on some pitching breakdown we'll be doing later in
the episode. And that is all just some of the
plan that we have got. It's Bogman, It's Welsh. Thank
you guys so much for hanging out with us. Bogman
with that, are you keeping with the fresh air? Take
that hat off real quick. Let me take a look.
Speaker 3: I mean it's still shaved.
Speaker 2: Oh well, you're not reshaving it.
Speaker 3: You just no, I'm not. That's more maintenance than than
doing the long hair. Dude.
Speaker 4: I this was shaved to the scalp two days ago,
and now I have a five o'clock shadow.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you do have that, all right? Well not so bald,
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let's talk about some stuff and some things. Cal Raley
cal Rally in the funniest story of the baseball season
was cal Rawly's effort to break Chris Davis's all time
hitless streak record just like fifty six games. Cal Raley
becoming one of the biggest piles in fantasy out there
breaks it has his breakthrough game boosts his average from
like one forty something to one sixty. Then immediately goes
on that not immediately, but then he's hit the eyel
So in whatever like slow piece of excitement you could have, Oh,
maybe he's turning it around da da du that is
gone because cause he got he was going to the
ale with an oblique strain. And we know what that
can be as well. That can that's a mystery. Sometimes
that doesn't seem like the shortest stint. So I think
it's relatively safe to say he is going to like
I don't want to jump the gun here a little bit,
but like he's gonna go down as a huge failure.
And the reason I'm being himming in hung is because, like,
just because you suck for six weeks does not mean
you're gonna go down as a huge, huge failure in fantasy.
You do have to put the caveat I think it's
not talked about enough when a player is absolutely garbage
for one month and they feel like they're cuttable and
they bring your team down. But regardless of the point,
he could have sucked for six weeks, bounce back, hit
forty homers, bopa bop. He could technically still have like
a really strong second half, but there's no way for
it will have been an April, a May, and potentially
a June of not just like bad production, but the
worst production. So a second half is it gonna cure it?
So he's gonna go down as just a big, huge
fantasy failure.
Speaker 3: This reminds me of Dominic Brown. Remember Don Brown having
that remember huge year and uh.
Speaker 4: And then the next year like just couldn't hit his
weight and he was kind of skinny, Like, I just
this is pathetic. This has been real bad. I hope
it's mainly because of whatever this injury that's been dogging him.
And he comes back and we see the cal ray
of twenty twenty five, or at least you know, a
shadow of that would be nice. Portion of it. A
week of it would be great. This has been awful
from the jump for cal Raley, it's been no good.
It started with terrible interactions with his teammates at the
World Baseball Classic and en posts.
Speaker 2: They're still putting out those posts. It's like cal Raley
since he didn't shake Randy or Rosarina's hand, and it's
it's bad obviously.
Speaker 4: You know what deserve like like Dragon for that. That's
just being ridiculous. So Dragon for that, I get it.
Speaker 2: But hopefully point of that. By the way, what was
it like, I'll go to lock in like it's one
of the all time dumbest thing. If you don't like someone,
don't shake their hand if they're your f and teammate,
to not shake like it's actually like, it's pretty hard
on material, It's pretty Yeah, I think it's ridiculous.
Speaker 4: So I mean, you're not a method actor bro, you're
a baseball play yeah you know Lewis, Yeah, give me
a break.
Speaker 3: Like you can you can be good.
Speaker 4: Hopefully he learns a lesson or he learned a lesson
and now he can be you know, to think about it,
Josh Naylor trolled him. I did like Naylor trolling him, like,
uh in the next game against.
Speaker 3: Canada or whoever. But yeah, that was.
Speaker 4: I don't know, man, uh, Rawley is definitely not giving
you what you paid for him up front.
Speaker 3: So it's just tough right now.
Speaker 4: So hopefully he bounces back and he has a big
second half and can continue to be an impact player.
Speaker 2: But where do you think could be drafted next year?
And this is you not knowing what he's gonna do
when he.
Speaker 4: Was right, I'll just say I don't have like a number.
I'll just say like still like catcher six. I think
I think he'll be somewhere around.
Speaker 2: There if he has a strong second half. I think
he's got to go below Drake Baldwin, Ben Rice, Ben
Rice and Lengeliers. So like, I think there's a path
where he could be like the fourth catcher. And I
also think that could be right at the back half
of the top. But this is what it happens. He
comes back let's say June fifteenth, just for argument's sake here,
and he starts hitting again, and he ends the season
with like thirty homers, thirty two homers, he hits two
thirty or whatever. It's kind of vintage Kyle Raley. I
think he goes between like one hundred and one hundred
and fifty and in between like catcher four and five.
I think he just kind of like slots right back
into that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, because like there are some catchers having bad years. Also,
you know, will Smith is hitting what is he hitting
two fifty six and missed some time?
Speaker 2: Solvi sucks? William Contres is pretty average right now, right,
he'd probably still go ahead of cal though. So that's
like catcher five, I guess, right.
Speaker 4: And then and then there are some guys having huge years,
Like how long is this Liam hicks Rye gonna take us?
Speaker 3: You know what I mean?
Speaker 4: Because he's still the twenty sixth player. Ryan Jeffers is
a top one hundred player. Hunter Goodman's like right in
line for hitting thirty home runs again, so like.
Speaker 3: You know, where did those guys end up?
Speaker 4: As well as athlete Rutchman come back, but I think
just because of twenty twenty five and the sixty homers,
he's still gonna be in that first half of catchers.
Even if he comes back and it just has a
mildly okay, I don't think he can hit as bad
as he did in the first half and still be
a top six catcher. But if he comes back and
has a reasonable back half of the year, I think
he's still gonna be a top six catcher next year.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: The funner conversation is if he stinks again and it's like,
is even a top ten guy? Like what a I
don't know man, And definitely was never I've never been
a catcher guy. You know that about me? Yeah, not
a crazy defender, But there was kind of a like, hey, guys,
obviously he's gonna like regress, but that regression, even if
it goes down twenty percent twenty five percent, it's still
gonna be like one of the better catcher seasons.
Speaker 3: Just what if it goes down eighty five percent?
Speaker 2: Eighty five I didn't realize going down twenty percent me
into him doing twenty percent of his production, So he
stinks another in the injury world, though, this is kind
of a big one. Maybe maybe we've dodged a big scare.
We're kind of under or waiting to hear about the
imaging that he went and undergone Max Freed. Max Freed
left in the third inning yesterday and he just like bolted.
He was just like soya, like what is that Italian goodbye?
And Irish gobye, Irish goodbye. I always do that Irish goodbye.
And we found out after the game that it was
elbow posterior soreness and that he's like, you know, gonna
go see the doctor Chris Ahmed for imaging. But he
said after the game that it might not be as
bad as everybody's making it out to be. He's hopeful,
like I think the word was like, you know, he's hopeful.
He's not gonna miss you know, like any significant time
and even saying that he hopes like this next start
would he'd be out for and he said, I guess
you never know, but I'm definitely planning on being on
this being sooner rather than later. Was a quote he
gave about the elbow so doesn't matter like what he says,
he called it like a hyper extension. But for him
to be talking like that and whatever. You know, they
had talked with him and looked at the.
Speaker 4: Same thing Crochet said, and he just had to have
his you know, rehab assignment. Push back a little bit, Well,
you just.
Speaker 2: Had a good No, you're just a good throwing session. Whatever.
I guess what I'm getting at is when this happened,
it was just like Joe Ryan, where it was like,
oh my god, he's done for the season. He's gone.
Now it feels a lot more like Joe Ryan that
maybe it's not as as bad as we possibly thought.
So I think your median line case here is you're
just going to get an Ale stint where they're going
to just let him kind of recoup. Maybe it's only
the fourteen days. Your worst case, obviously is the season.
The best case doesn't seem actually likely that he doesn't
miss his next start, but you never know what the
hell's going on, Like they are overly cautious. So I
tend I'm leaning Joe was not. I am leaning that
we may have dodged a major bullet with Max Freed.
Even a small Ale stint, to me is dodging a
major bullet.
Speaker 3: I think so too.
Speaker 4: Specifically with pictures right, Like, Uh, I'm hoping this is
a sunny gray thing and he can be out there
for his next start. But I bet it's probably a
Crochet thing where it's the same deal Crochet was, like,
I expect to be back immediately after. I'm you know, eligible,
he hasn't been, but we know he's not going to
miss a big chunk of the season.
Speaker 3: He's gonna be back somewhat soon.
Speaker 4: So I think that's probably what we're getting from Max
Freed as well.
Speaker 3: But we have to see.
Speaker 4: I also don't blame Piezopa for being pessimistic about any
pitcher injury. Sure, but I think I'm with you. I
think we're we've probably dodged a bad bullet, but he's
still probably gonna have to go on the IL.
Speaker 2: Yeah, some other news and notes that are floating out there. Otani.
This is very We're doing this because Joe just couldn't
help himself with Atani, but top five pitcher, but the
batting stats have been lagging. He is fifty third in batting,
which is not bad, but pitching wise, after seven innings,
eight strikeouts, it's just one of those weird years where
his pitching has been more valuable the Yahoo only version
of the pitching is a huge return. The hitting is lagging.
I don't really think too much about it, but they
are taking him, or at least I think it was
this week. I think it was that maybe today that
they said they weren't going to have him hit on
Wednesdays and Thursdays. So they're like lowering the hitting a
tiny bit, and he's not hitting while he's pitching, just
to kind of like get himself reacclimated or whatever. So
I don't know if there's anything to take from it.
Maybe the dual player of Otani, it's like, Okay, he's
not a hitter. He's great, he's the best player in there.
Speaker 3: They when the.
Speaker 2: Otanis are split up, Okay, there's a more interesting fantasy conversation.
I think to be happening.
Speaker 4: One eleven as a hitter in sixteen as a pitcher,
So that's the fifth best pitcher, and like the fifty
second best hitter.
Speaker 2: Still gets seven homers in five stolen bases while hitting
two forty just the average. He's just like zach Netto,
you know, That's all he is right now, Like, but
we're making a bigger deal about it. It's not awesome
by any means. It's not first overall on the hitting version,
but it.
Speaker 4: Feels like a thousand little cuts on the hitting right.
It's like the average is not good, but we know
that can come up. He's still giving us runs and
RBIs homers and stall bases, so four out of five
he's still giving us. But also he's not hitting on
the daisy pitches now, and now he's taking extra days
after the week. It just feels like a bunch of
little things going wrong with the hitting side. But I
think he'll be fine, and he's still the best player
in baseball by a lot.
Speaker 2: If you were redrafting right now and you had a
hit her only Otani, where would he go. It's tough
because like Bobby hasn't been hitting a bunch of homers,
Akunya's hurt, Soda has been kind of banged up, like
everybody in the top end has been crazy. Is he
stills one or two her utube version only?
Speaker 3: I yeah, I would still probably take him too behind Judge.
Speaker 2: Oh you would take Judge over him? Yeah, I think so. Yeah,
I think I'm comfortable with that. What about the pitching version.
Speaker 3: Oh man, he might he might be first there.
Speaker 4: Schemes ahead of him, ahead of him. Yeah, so so
Skin's ahead of him, So he's second.
Speaker 2: I think he's in the group of schemes. I kind
of want to still put Crochet in there, Chris Sale
and and this might blow your mind. I'm taking this
Jacob Mizerrowski, jackib Miserowski belongs in that.
Speaker 3: As long as he's not hurt too yet.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but he's I mean, he had a like a
leg cramp or something like that. There's no arm thing.
He got pulled from his last star. But dude has
an almost under two era. He has an almost forty
percent k percentage, and he's lowered his walk rates around
eight percent. I did this on Leaning Off today that
my take with Misrowski is I was always worried that
he wasn't gonna be his pitch ability was gonna be
a problem. He's gonna walk, he's gonna be inconsistent. He's
he has like eleven percent walk rate. He's gonna have
these weird blow up starts, blah blah blah. That's just
going down the wayside. So the the thing has got
to be like, Okay, you just think his arm's gonna
blow up if you think his arm's gonna blow up. Okay,
you can have that. I can't kind a week, week
in and week out start to start predict that that's
super I just still think that's predictive of in the season.
So I'm gonna that that goes out the window for me.
So now you're gonna look at just who he is.
Name me fur better fantasy pictures right now?
Speaker 3: I can't.
Speaker 2: And I did this debate who would you rather have
rest of season? Miserowski or Yamamoto? I said, miss yeah,
I mean I yeah, and we did a pole.
Speaker 3: I I don't.
Speaker 4: I don't think I have a hard argument either way
on that. Right Like Yamamoto, UH is not doing as
well as Miserowski right now.
Speaker 3: So I get it.
Speaker 2: So let me ask you this.
Speaker 4: Let me change some injury stuff, but I mean that
they're right there, and the poll, by the way, dead
split fifty to fifty on this.
Speaker 2: Yeah, name me how many pictures can you name that
are to you are affirmatively better than Miserowski and Fantasy
right now that you try, and you're allowed, by the
way to if you want to do.
Speaker 4: The skins in there, No, it's sales skins, uh and Otani.
Speaker 3: Those are the guys I trust more.
Speaker 2: Okay, So yeah, So the Atani side of it's really
interesting of like if you throw a Tani in there,
because also, like Mizerewski might be, there might be an
innings issue that could have long term Like there's another
argument that could be said, like because what did he
have like sixty innings the year prior fifty innings into
this year, what is that going to cap him out?
Like maybe one fifty one sixty something like that. But oh,
Tany gets that. I kind of agree with you. I
think that's a good list. If Crochet I think is
super talented, you could kind of throw him in there,
and there's other guys. I just don't think that go
over that. So like I'm just gonna be.
Speaker 3: Weird cramping things too because it was a quad today,
wasn't in a hamstring earlier in the year, and didn't
he miss time last year with something as well? Or
am I making that up?
Speaker 2: I think you're thinking of Meryl Kelly. He did, he
did have a thing. He had a thing Mizerewski.
Speaker 4: Okay, Okay, yeah, I'm not thinking of Mary Merrill Kelly
cramps every day, So it's definitely not that, but it
was a hamstring thing earlier this year, and he had
something last year.
Speaker 3: There's just just something I've noticed because his career is
so short and he's missed sometimes I'm already with a couple.
Speaker 2: Yeah. No, and and you can put those things in there.
But from like a production standpoint, the progression he's made
is a picture.
Speaker 4: Hibbia last year. By the way, I just went scrolled
through and looked at it. Get a tibia thing, a
lot of body stuff. Yeah, yeah, that well, that's what
I'm saying, Uh, quad hamstring tibbia.
Speaker 3: It's it's like there's a lot of lower.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's better than any of it being an arm.
Speaker 4: Issue million percent percent, which is why I only named
three guys that I was I would definitely take ahead
of Misrowski right now. Yeah, but but he does calf
quadriceps in June last year. You're right, a lot of
lower body stuff. That's kind of weird.
Speaker 2: It's super weird, but better.
Speaker 3: Than you are, absolutely correct.
Speaker 2: Yeah. So I think my whole point of that was
to kind of see, like, what's the grouping, and I
think you just created the grouping. I think it's skiing
I mean maybe Skeens is his own tier. If you
want to do that, I have no issue with that.
Then it's sale, it's Misserrawski. It's a tany we put
Schlitler in there. To me, Slitler's like a level below that.
Speaker 3: Rianno had another good start after a bad one.
Speaker 2: I'm not putting Soriano in there, but like I think
I do, But like Crochet, I think I still want
to put Crochet in there, so, like like to Meche,
to me, maybe Crochet gets thrown into that top five group.
Otherwise the next grouping is like Chris Sanchez, Crochet, Yamamoto, Schlittler.
I probably put Nola McClean in there, maybe Dylan Ces
like that's what that That next is kind of big
grouping in there. But I think Misserowski has kind of
separated himself. And I was the Nolan McLean and Chase
Burns over Miserowski guy.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yeah, he's just he's had an incredible year,
So I'm with you.
Speaker 2: It's totally ridiculous in here. Speaking of Picture Pitcher starts
and breakdowns, Bryce Miller returned to action and had It's
a weird start, man, I don't know if you saw
any of this but weird in that you had a
huge positive. His velo was up over two miles per hour.
You're throwing that much harder. He was, like he hit
ninety nine in in ve Loo. He was sitting ninety seven.
I think I'm trying to pull this back up. And
ninety seven point six on his four seaen ninety six
point three on his sinker. Those are up two miles
per hour year over year. He was throwing his split
finger almost three miles per hour harder. Everything was, but
no strikeouts. He couldn't get any whiffs. His fastball that
he threw harder had a twelve percent whiff rate and
have four hundred batting average against. His split finger, which
he threw twenty three percent of the time, had a
zero percent WFF rate. And the reason behind it was, Dude,
he had a seventy and sixty percent zone rate on
those two pitches. I maybe I'm speaking out of my
ass here. I don't usually think you see a split
finger with an over sixty percent zone rate. The fault
seventy isn't great. So what my point is is his
predominant pitches, which account for like what's the quick math,
like sixty three percent of his pitches. He was just
throwing in the zone the whole time, so guys were
just like making either you know, bad contact, whatever you
want to call it. Like he had a zero percent
barrel rate, so they're just making bad contact against him.
The evs were really really bad, but he wasn't inducing
any strikeouts, So like, this was a good start. It's
good that he was out there and he was efficient
and stuff like that. He's got a really interesting repertoire
of pitches he's gonna put out there. But it had
no strikeouts, So do you have any takeaways? Kind of
hearing that three strikeouts and five and one third kind
of a heavy whip as well, twelve percent k percentage,
four percent walk. But it was one start, so I
feel like we're going in three or four to see.
But the positive is the VLOS up. The negative is
it wasn't like it wasn't a tremendously dominant performance.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is fine.
Speaker 4: I think that's what you take away from an after
one start, Right, it was fine. I think if he
has two more starts that look this good, then he's
probably pushing Castillo out of that spot. Eventually once they
go to piggybacking or whatever, I think he pushes Castillo
if Castillo doesn't improve vastly safety pitch.
Speaker 2: I think Casio pitches today, so this is this would
be a very and he actually pitches in like eight
minutes when we start this up, so that'd be a
very interesting outing.
Speaker 4: To see, right exactly. So I think that's what you're
paying attention to. You just saying if if Miller looks
better than Castillo moving forward to take his spot in
the rotation, because I think that's the battle. So I
don't think there's much to take away from one start.
It's nice that the VLO was backup and needn't look
horrible so great, but I don't think I'm taking much
more of that specifically. Didn't they play the astros struggling
Astros rough to watch recently?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'm picking him up though he's the
guy that I'm going to be. I'd probably be a
little bit more aggressive, and then I think he can
stay in the rotation, so I would be putting some
high waivers on him. Also potential waivers on a couple
of rookies I got called up aj ewing called up
by the Mets a couple days ago Henry Bolty. Yesterday,
aj Ewing came right out the gates with a triple
and some walks run. Yeah, Henry Bolty was two for
four yesterday with a Yeah, that was incredible, dude. The
question that kept coming up, and me and Joe are
split on this is everyone kept saying Ewing or Bolty,
where would you go? So you let you be kind
of a version of a tiebreaker.
Speaker 4: I don't know, you know the rookies better than I do.
Why you asking me? Yeah? What did you say on that?
Speaker 2: I said, Bolty?
Speaker 4: Yeah, well what do you think about the rookie quarterbacks? Wells,
come on, you ask me that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, But I mean if you if you've got to
make a move, what move are you making? I get
Joe's stance. Aj Ewing looks like a super polish like
high contact hitter. But I think Bolti's had a tremendously
ridiculous season defender.
Speaker 4: Clearly right, Yeah, he's rushed because the Mets are having
such a bad offensive years so far, so probably Bolty
out of those guys.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think they're pretty close. But I'm going with
Bolty on there. If you're if you're looking to make
a move, what was this about? You put this on here?
We had an interesting home league trade where we only
played at the All Star break.
Speaker 4: Why don't you Our guy Chris Young was like, you
should have talked about this on the show, and I
was like, that's a good idea.
Speaker 3: I'll put it on there.
Speaker 4: But it was a one for three trade, and I
wanted to get your take on it, because you know,
we see these straight sometimes. I just approved him. It's
our boy Jesse and our guy John. Jesse traded John
Jose er Ramirez in at three for one for Mark
Kami and then two closers Chapman and erseg I mean
he was he was begging everybody in the league to
get closers. We're all looking up at John was severe,
so we're all looking up at Chris Young to try
to get uh to catch him because he's been in
first for like the last three weeks. I think I
was in first for the first two weeks and now
it's been Chris ever since then. But he's been trying
to get saved from everybody and needed this deal. Mark
Kami is hot, Jose Errimirez is leading the league in
stolen bases. I think he has eighteen already, but he's
still hitting low. He's one of those guys that we
looked at last week that is expected to bounce back
and have.
Speaker 3: A huge year and all that.
Speaker 4: Which side do you like here in a short run
league and all that. You know, he got the closers
he needed, and he got a hot MARRORCOMI, but he
traded you know, potentially a top five player.
Speaker 2: Well, there's something that's more interesting in here. Chris Young
is first, Jesse and John who did the trade, were
second and third. So this wasn't like low end trading.
I mean, I think I always lean to like the
best player in a trade, er Seg. But see, here's
the trick about this league is that it's only through
the first half. It ends at the All Star break.
So like what you might start to argue about Erseg, like,
oh what if? What if? It's like, well, ERSI is
probably gonna be the closer the whole time through Chapman
probably safe through the All Star break as well, and
if he gets traded, it's going to go to a
destination where so I think those saves are so you've
got significant trade saves additions and then you've got big power.
Maybe he was because it's roto in the first half,
isn't it. So you know, if I'm not looking at
the stats, if he's just like really good on stolen
bases and needs to project more on power, I see
why Jesse would do that. That's a it's a weird looking trade.
I'm not really sure what else to break down about it,
but it kind of doesn't fly. I'd almost argue a
little bit, like why it doesn't. I know why Chris
Young wants us to talk about it because it's a
home league we play. White doesn't fly about talking on
our episodes. Is because it's the first half league. So
that changes the scope of like overall value for people.
If this was a full redraft season, I think it
would be a dumb ass trade.
Speaker 3: I think so too.
Speaker 2: It'd be a stupid ass trade.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think I would do it in a
first half, but.
Speaker 2: By the way i'd say, and I say I'm saying
a stupid ass trade. Jesse Severe is one of the
best Fantasy baseball players we know, and I would say
it would have been a dumb ass trade on his
side to trade away the best player, unless I'm reading
that wrong, and to trade away the best player to
get some saves and Murakami for a full season. Right now,
I would say that's dumb. But if you're only doing
it for two more months, it's pretty and it's row
and you're in second. I that's why it plays. So
that's why it does. I I don't think it's irrelevant,
like big breakdown.
Speaker 4: Yeah, by the way, I have the most saves in
that league, and I didn't draft like I think I
drafted two closers, but I picked up Louis Varlin and
I picked up Sir Anthony Demingaz And I have thirty saves.
In your second you have twenty nine saves. I think
you have the better closures than I do.
Speaker 2: That I really tell't. I have Devin Williams, I have seen. Oh,
I have Mason MILLI never mind, I do, and then
I picked up Lasts. I've had so many terrible Yeah,
I've had so many injuries. I did just get like
Blake Snell, I drafted, I got them, but I lost.
I never got Holiday, I lost Suarez, I lost Robert.
I don't know. I just said underperformers. I was dumb
and I took my stupid Butler and Cagliona and they've
sucked ass. And yeah I got some. I mean, that's
some great players on here. I got I tried to
drafted McGonagall and that's about it.
Speaker 4: Chanler Simpsons, Yeah, I was first for a little bit.
My team is tank, Matt Chapman is playing terribly. I've
had Brent Rooker missed a bunch of time, Yellis missed
a bunch of time after a nice white hot start,
and my pitching has been just not good year. He's
been bad. Who has been bad? Yeah, so I've had
I've fallen down to seventh.
Speaker 3: I'm not like, not even top half of the league anymore.
Speaker 2: So all right, press, Yeah, some other pieces before we
get to the pitcher breakdowns. In the injury market. Buxton
was scratched Thursday with hip issue. He's been pretty getting
red hot so monitor that don't know if it's serious.
Jacob Hasrask, as we said he had left with quad cramping.
Didn't seem like a big issue. Robbie Snelling to the
IL with a UCL stream that's really bad, and the
move was It brought Braxon Carrot up where he's coming
up today. I think he's pitching today. I'm pretty intrigued
by it. I talked about him as like a waiver
wire pickup on He's seven percent owned in like Yahoo
ESPN League combined. You know, he's he's a low velow pitcher.
His velo was up in triple A a little over
a mile per hour from the previous year. He's getting
some whiffs, his walks were up, so I kind of
monitor that. But I think he's a decent I'm interested
in streaming him, I guess is the point.
Speaker 4: I mean, and most likely you have an open spot
with all these damn pitture injuries, so but I do.
Speaker 2: I wish it was Thomas White that was coming up though,
that would have been like, you know, get excited if
he was. But Brax and Garrett's the guy more injuries.
Jacob Wilson to the I L with left shoulder slap
sub luxation. That's a tough one. Sean Murphy to the
I L. No one want to miss him. Who's at
Cabayero finger fracture And they brought up Anthony Volpi, but
I think they said they're gonna give it back to
Cabra when he comes back. But do you se Volpi
error in his first game back, like he just he's
got to get out of.
Speaker 4: There, dude, get him out of New York man, Yeah,
get him anywhere else.
Speaker 3: Why didn't the Dodgers trade for him?
Speaker 2: They just got like I think there are some cases
where everyone needs to look and be like, well, like,
I know, you don't want to trade away like controllable players.
If they can fix it, da da du it ain't work.
You just gotta get some guys out of there.
Speaker 3: It ain't work.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you gotta get him out of there. Addison Barger
went to the ile with elbow inflammation. That's not good.
Yelich came back and then Artie has got to sore
back again. Like he was activated and then didn't.
Speaker 4: I was making the notes on like Monday and Tuesday,
and I put on the active guys or the guys
coming back. Hey, Yeltz was activated and then on Tuesday
he's dealing with a bad back.
Speaker 3: Nope, one day, anyone.
Speaker 2: He's right back to it. We also had Francisco Alvarez
who's gonna be out six to eight weeks with the
tormentiscus over him. So it doesn't matter, you can be
done with it, and Dylan Beaver's to the isle with
an oblique train. Some guys coming back from the injured
run here. Garic Crochet threw off a mount on Tuesday.
There's no actual timetable. I think he threw like twenty pitches.
So they're just trying to figure out when the IL
stint is, you know, the rehabby stuff is going to start.
So it's actually not super great news. It's not the
worst news. It's not like a setback or anything. It's
just like you're kind of hoping like, oh, it goes
on the IL, maybe he'll be back quick, Like this
doesn't seem super quick.
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is kind of what I was menishing before
as a potential for, you know, as a potential for
Max Freed, who left as well and kind of had
the same stuff to say that Crochet did. So it's
an IEL stint. It probably is three weeks to a
month instead of two weeks, but not the whole season.
That's probably what we're looking at here.
Speaker 2: Oh my god, Joe's going to be so insufferable tomorrow.
A j ewing just hit a homer. I just have
He's going to be the most Insufferable human Beings tomorrow.
Speaker 3: I gotta go to that game because it's nine zip
on this REDS game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's three three and uh aja Ewing just dropped
a bomb, So if you don't want to hear the
unstuffer and amos, that's brutal. So live game action going on.
Uh Francisco Lindoor in theory is coming back, but we
have no idea when because the MRI and Winnsday showed
that there's healing in his calf, but they've set no
timetable for that. So it's like, brother, if they don't
have it at a timetable, he's got to start ramping up.
Then he's gonna play games like this is.
Speaker 4: Feels like it feels like an unnecessary update. Man like
a ys MRI showed he's recovering Bud. He's not ready yet,
just so everybody knows.
Speaker 2: He just hasn't ramped up. He's gonna have to ramp
up into games and it's just it's it's ramps up well,
people want updates. Jeremy Panie is resuming his rehab on Friday.
Jordan Westburg weighing is options by the way for Tommy
John surgery, which would knock him out for the season
and also makes a little bit more sense that Jackson
Holiday has been working at third base. When he comes back,
they might be wanting some extra run there. So just
absolute disaster for Westburg at this point. So he's I
don't even think you need to hold on to him.
The production hasn't been there. Like, if you have any
if you have an il spot issue, crunch dump him.
You can get rid of himas Robert is not progressing
the way they would like. This is according to Carlo
Mendoza with his lingering back issue with the Mets, and
this is why aj Ewing is up. This is why
aj Ewing might be up for quite a while with
this thing.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean that sucks that hopefully this back issue goes,
but I mean if you ever had a back issue,
you know they're just not doing anything until it's good.
So really stinks for uh Lou Bob, But hopefully he's
back soon. But hey, aj Ewing hitting bombs and stealing
Joe pis his heart.
Speaker 2: In the meantime, Peter Fairbanks is activated, so he's back.
Ryan Helsley has not been clear to start a throwing program,
but they expect a rehab assignment soon. I just talked
about this. Rico garcias just still floating out there. He's
been one of the best relief pictures in Basel, and
he's getting saves and he's like under fifty percent on
on CBS, he's under thirty percent on the CBS YAH
or the ESPN YAH who combined, I would be picking
him up perspectively.
Speaker 4: He guess where he is among relief pictures ranked, I
don't know, just guests very high.
Speaker 2: Uh four second Wow.
Speaker 3: Mason Miller. Mason Miller is the only one ahead of him,
and Mason Miller has eighteen more strikeouts than he does.
Speaker 4: But his era is point four to seven, his whip
is point four to two. He has three saves, twenty
two strikeouts and three wins. Also that's probably boosting him
a lot. But yeah, Rico Garcia has been great.
Speaker 2: I'd be picking him up. Eric Miller started a rehab
assignment after the lower backstring. He might come back in
and get saves. N eighty of all Day's going to
start on Saturday after being scratched money, that's good news.
Grayson Rodriguez coming back this Sunday, just had a big
old outing in a rehab start. I'm still dicey about him,
but I know Joe kind of likes him, but he's
kind of high owned, so you can look out for him.
Jason Diminguez prp injection in his shoulder, and Lucas gi
Alito is set to join the Pods rotation this weekend
after doing all his rehab assignments over in like Double
A and everything. So you're gonna speculate on Jaylee?
Speaker 4: No, I mean I I'm more likely for a Grayson,
but like you have to have that streaming spot, right,
Like that streaming spot where someone pitches and you don't
want him and you dump him and you pick up Grayson.
I feel like that's what Grayson is right now, are you?
Is he anything beyond a streamer do you?
Speaker 2: No, I'm I'm just looking for like solid outings and
where I would want to put like I want to
see what he looks like. The problem is is, like
I do think you got to pick I'm not afraid
in a deeper league to pick him up, speculate in
the hold and maybe not start him in the first one,
but to hold him if the start is good though,
as long as he's not going up against like the
Dodgers and you know, like braves and stuff. I might
put him out there.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's probably got to be where I
am what Grayson Rodriguez too, like potential for him to
come back and look good.
Speaker 3: I'm all about it.
Speaker 2: But uh, oh, I'm sorry. I thought you're talking about
Lucce Gielito.
Speaker 3: No, no, I was talking about Grayson.
Speaker 2: Oh okay, because we were talking Lucas Gilito, I didn't
realize you turned it back to Grayson. That's my bad.
I hold him in the same regard. I think the
exact same regard. I actually honestly might feel a little
bit better about Giolito.
Speaker 3: Oh really, I think I feel a little bit better
about Grayson. But not by a.
Speaker 2: Ton Yeah, not by a ton on like either one
of them. So all right, let's take a break. When
we come back, speaking of pitching, let's talk about some
pictures with some expected to normal era changes and some
year over your CA percentage. Who are we buying, Who's
made the biggest changes? Are those changes worthwhile? Let's do it,
and we'll do it right for this in this league,
somebody royally forked up, somebody forked up.
Speaker 4: Why can't I say, if you're trying to curse, you
can't hear full.
Speaker 1: Shirt, Holy mother fork shirt boss.
Speaker 2: All right, we are taking a look at some either
year over year or just expected differences. We've got two
pitching stats. We're going to take a look at, if anything,
what this does.
Speaker 3: Like always, you know.
Speaker 2: I don't think you get too hyper focused necessarily on
individual stats or why we did it. It's an opportunity
to talk about some players, and we've got expected We've
got era to expected era differentials for players that have
some of the biggest differences. Obviously a lot of that,
especially the top end, is going to talk about potential
regression candidate type of players, and then year over year
K percentage guys where when we get the K percentage,
we'll ask you about some of the structure of how
you've got this. But let's start with era. And the
biggest ERA difference that we're looking at is an over
two run differential. And what's fascinating, and it's funny because
I see it here every place you look, any type
of player raider that a site has, this guy is
in your face. He is twenty third overall on Yahoo.
But it's Davis Martin, and it's hard to buy in.
Davis Smartin obviously was a free ninety nine guy. He's
a one six to two era, but he's got an
expected era of three nine one. His FIP an x FIP. Actually,
you're telling us a story that yes, of course it's
not the same, it's not the one blah blah blah,
but it's still like a really good picture. He's got
solid K numbers, low walk numbers, hasn't really given up
a whole bunch of contact. Maybe we're just too focused
on the stigma bogs of him being a white sox.
But what do you think about Davis Smartin? Are you
do you buy? I don't know how to really kind
of like bow this up here. I'm not like, yeah,
you think he's gonna fall apart. This is nothing to
do regression. Okay, so you think the regression is gonna
take over and we are gonna be what Martin will
be back on the wires soon.
Speaker 4: I do like this is a large difference, Like you
go from an era close to one and a half
to close to four, right, and when you go and
look at his savant page, like the chase numbers, K percentage.
Walk percentage are all excellent right over in the eightieth
percentile or higher eight percentile on K percentage ninety second
and walk Hee's walking nobody, which is outstanding, and he's
getting guys to chase, which is great. But the XBA
is in the bottom thirty percent A twenty eight. The
VLO is no good, bottom thirty five percent exit VLO
average excip vialet velo for a guy without VLO is
not good either, which means guys are squaring him up.
He's under fifty percent on barrel erge percentage all out
and bottom eighteen percent hard hit percentage all out. So
I think the other shoe is gonna drop pretty soon,
which is why we haven't spent a lot of time
talking up David Smart.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 4: I heard Scott White talking him up a couple weeks ago,
and it was kind of like the we've avoided talking
about this guy for a couple of weeks because we
just know we're never gonna buy in. But it's been
a month and he's been great, so we have to
take notice now. But I do think that you just
ride this wave. In the first time he gives up
back to back starts with more than five or more runs,
it's it's probably you're getting close to cut time. So
I'm probably out on this being sustainable for David Smart.
Speaker 2: Kind of hard. I mean, I'll say one thing, he
really has it, like you can pick apart this a
little bit, but I don't see a lot of challenge
in here. Now He's faced a couple of kid But
here are the teams he's faced, the Marlins, the blue Jays, who,
by the way, the blue Jays have been bad this year,
the Royals, and he played the Royals early on horrible
A's Diamondbacks, Angels, Angels, Mariners. I'm not trying to say
like all the Mariners aren't a good team or the
but it's like there's some underperforming teams in there. So
he has played a lot of like bad offenses in there.
In the same token, I don't know, there's it's like
a really cool pitch mix. He's got four pitches. He
throws double digit percentage of the time to righty's. He's
got five pitches he can throw to lefties. He's got
a really good K percentage. He's not walking guys. I
do not think he's a sub to e RA guy.
But I actually think he could be a low threes
type of player, so I'm actually gonna kind of buy.
Like bottom line though, outside of our analysis, this is
just for you guys to know, Davis Martin has an
over two run expected era different whether we buy it
or not. Our breakdown is.
Speaker 4: Just attached to list by er, so there might be
some bigger differences, but that is a massive one up
at the top.
Speaker 3: He has the lowest DRA of anybody on this list.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and this is like informative informative information, but I think,
like I'm still a buyer on Davis Martin, and I
would actually be interested if he had like a bad start.
He doesn't have a start where he's giving up over
three yearned runs. He had like three straight quality starts,
Like he's just kind of doing everything. I'd be interested
in having him be a throw in piece of a
trade if he has like one okay start, just because
like it's some pretty impressive stuff. Those Soriano has gotten
everybody's attention all year, rightfully, so he's been incredible. He's
got a one six six ERA, but he also has
an expected era of two runs more. This is like
Davis Martin three seven to seven expected era. It's a
little worse or a little better than Davis Martin, but
his FIP and ex tip are actually worse than Davis Martin.
U three one seven FIP that's a lot worse than
Davis Martin in A three h one two x FIP.
Jose Soriano good strikeout numbers, walk walks. Always a little
bit of a concern. That's kind of gone up to
like nine percent. He's given up some barreled contact. I
don't know, I've kind of I feel like I've been
a little bit more critical and just dicey about Jose Sooriano.
More than that I wanted to trade him because he
was being put in this like I mean, dude, you
talked about him when we were talking about the top
five or six, you throughout his name like that's still happening.
I feel like, unlike Davis Martin, you're going to turn
in the other direction that you still buy the greatness
of Soriano.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't know if I buy the greatness of him,
but his value right now has been outstanding. Do I
think it's going to fall back? Of course, I don't
think he's going to be a top five starting pitcher
for the entire.
Speaker 3: Season at all.
Speaker 4: I think it would be a little bit absurd to
expect that from almost anyone, but specifically a guy that
you know, was ranked below the top one fifty start
the season. His preseason rank was one to eighty one
and right now he's fifteenth overall, which is nice, But
you go and you look at his game log. Dude,
the White Sox are the only teams that have scored
runs off of him. He's given up eight runs to
the White Sox. How many other teams have runs against him?
Speaker 2: Welsh? You know, Oh, I know, I know this whole thing.
Any runs, Yeah, I don't think it's any I think
I think it's one run or something like that.
Speaker 3: Two runs he's given up.
Speaker 4: Outside of those two White Sox games, he gave one
up against Atlanta and through eight innings and that game
had struck out ten. And then his last start at Toronto,
which came off of the start before those two that
were two in a row, by the way, against the
White Sox, was a Toronto game and it was probably
his second worst game. He gave up seven hits and
five innings only and only struck out four. He still
didn't give up any runs or walk anybody. And in
this start seven to two thirds, five hits, one run, one.
Speaker 3: Walk, seven strikeouts.
Speaker 4: So Soriano has been good against everyone that isn't the
White Sox.
Speaker 3: So yes, I'm still in on Soriano.
Speaker 2: That narrative is funny to me because like that Rico
had put that thing out there where he's like, is
it just a White Sox, And I was like, well,
it was back to back White Sox starts. You can't
I don't think we can play this game and it's
only the White Sox. But then he did dominate the
Blue Jays.
Speaker 4: Oh, we just went through the bad schedule with Martin.
It's and he has played Houston when they were hot.
His first started was against Houston, then the Cubs, Atlanta
at Cincinnati, two games against Toronto and the Padres. Those
are good teams, got offensive teams, and he's been dominating
everybody that isn't the White Sox.
Speaker 3: It's kind of crazy.
Speaker 2: I guess my take is like, if I could trade
Jose Soriano and get Davis Martin in a solid bat,
I'm doing it in a heartbeat because I think that
I don't have an argument against that I think those
guys might be a lot closer than you think. Like
I think Davis Martin is going to regress, I also
think Jose Soriano's going to regress. The narrative different like
I do think that Jose Soiano's got a better strikeout potential.
I don't love the walk thing, and I think that
could creep into a wrong direction. I think Jose Soriano
is a three and a half ERA with a significantly
increased strikeout rate, which now makes him so much more
valuable than he was before. But he keeps getting talked
about in this elite range where the only thing I
can think about is I want to trade Jose Soriano.
I just want to trade him because he's worth so
much to everybody. I think his best starts are in
right now, and I don't think he's going to be
an under two and a half e RA guy. I
might be wrong and you might sell out. But the
difference is is if Davis Martin continues, you're never gonna
get anything for him. Like if you were to try
to be like, Okay, I'm gonna try Davis Martin, you
just can't get anything good for Davis Martin.
Speaker 4: So that whole also make corianno more valuable if you
think you can get anything for him, right, well, but.
Speaker 2: I think you can get a lot for Soriano. So
I guess what I'm saying is like the plus if
you were to trade Davis Martin because you don't believe
it and you trade him off, what the hell are
you getting? You're getting some I think you're getting a
closer aj Ewing You're getting in and.
Speaker 3: Not Anthonyez right, like a closer.
Speaker 2: And if and if David Martin were to continue, you're
sick to your stomach because that's the top fifteen sp
Jose Soriano. If you trade him right now, you're going
to get a f and Hall And then if he
continues at this rate and as a sub to era,
you're sick about it, but you got a huge return
in it and that So that's like my narrative.
Speaker 4: Do you have a tool where we can look at
like who has been traded for who?
Speaker 2: Yes, there is a I don't have it like quickly
in front of me there. It's not publicly accessible. I
think CBS used to do that and then they got
rid of it. I've got a tool on fantasy pros
where I can see like seven days worth of trades,
and that would be uh, actually I might talk for
a second. Let me see if I can.
Speaker 4: Trust so just looking at Soriano savon page, he's better
than fifty percent in most things, right. The two things
that he is below fifty percent and walk percentage like
you said, he's in the forty six percentile, and barrel
percentage allowed he's in the bottom thirty six percent, So
that's been tough. But fastball velo top ninety percent, fIF percentage,
top ninety two percent, K percentage top eighty four percent,
ground ball percentage top seventy seven percent. Like he he's
above average even in XCRA and X batting average, he's
above average there at fifty four and fifty eight percent.
So there's nothing here that shows a significant downgrade. Do
I think he's going to be a top twenty five
to fifty player the whole year, No, But I think
he can hover around top one hundred after what he's
already done, and that will bring you more than what
you'll get for Davis Park.
Speaker 2: This the search tool on this is like a night
two days. Yeah, well, no idea, no, No, I found
some the problem is is like you know, when you're
in like a huge document, like it takes forever to load. Well, no,
if you should put someone's name in, it should show
you all of them. I have to like be like
visually looking at the name. It's crazy. So here are
two trades that.
Speaker 3: If you look at these numbers, they're very scary.
Speaker 2: I can't put in a box. I can't put Soriano
and scroll and find all of them. I have to
like be looking for her. So I found two real quick.
This is on that Jose Soriano. This was on May eleventh,
and I think this happened multiple times. Jose Soriano for
Ozzy Albi's Ozzy's been overperforming. I'm gonna sell on Ozzie
Albi's though, but that was one.
Speaker 3: Here's that's pretty fair.
Speaker 2: Jose Soriano and Taoscar Hernandez for Riley Green and Riley
Green is going the Circo.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I think I'd rather that Riley Green. Uh,
the other one for Ozzie. I think it's pretty fair.
I think they're both overperforming, right, So what do you want?
You want the overperforming it or the overperforming picture if
you need the picture.
Speaker 2: I kind of want. I just kind of want more unfairs.
All right, here's another one. This looks like a dynasty trade.
Maybe Jose Soriano, Max Clark, and Will Warren for Kiley
Ansen and ord On Alvarez. Well, Warren's been awesome. That's
two really good pictures and a rookie in Max Clark
for Alvarez and Kenley Jansen. So like that's what the
trade market has looked like as I'm searching on the
back end. Those are some sync like Fantasy pros trades.
Speaker 3: Those are some interesting trades.
Speaker 4: I like that your Don one is interesting because it's
like Jansen has been shaking. If your Don gets hurt again,
that's gonna be real tough. But your Don can win
the MVP.
Speaker 2: It's just if it's Dynasty and you give up Max Clark,
Like that's a pretty big But I don't know. I
think that maybe that starts to give you the general range.
I feel like I just want a little bit more,
But I guess I look at it more from like
comparing Jose sore.
Speaker 3: And hasn't Max Clark been bad bad?
Speaker 2: He's just not hitting homers. He's in Triple A. He's
one of the youngest in Triple A.
Speaker 1: No.
Speaker 4: I just mean, like, if you're looking for impact this year,
it's probably not gonna be from Max clo.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah they I mean they haven't called him up
and I don't know when they're gonna call him up.
So impact this year is a little bit down. Uh,
here's some more pictures. I'm gonna just start listing off
and set of like individual breakdowns. We've got Nick Martin
one point seven e R A and.
Speaker 3: Expected Nick Martinez, Nick Martinez.
Speaker 2: Sorry, I'm looking at Davis Martin.
Speaker 3: High School with the punter named Nick Martin.
Speaker 2: If uh Nick Murphy he was he was drafted by
the Vikings. I think it was well, I only know.
Speaker 4: Him and Mark Andrews that that's our our NFL four
professional athletes.
Speaker 2: I can think of. It's Nick Murphy that that played
in the NFL because we had the a SUS quarterback
who's literally our grade, Christian Chad Christiansen. Nick Murphy made
it to the Vikings, Mark Andrews to the Ravens obviously,
Merrill Kelly uh to the Diamondbacks. And then there is
a professional baseball player he doesn't quite count West Cough
who's with the White Sox in the minor leagues. He
has not gone. That's all that we know that may
I don't think I knew. Yeah he was, he was
Desert Mountain and then, but he's the majors those three guys.
Nick Martinez one seven ERA, three point eighty five expected ERA.
He has one of the highest x fips. His x
FIP is telling an even worse story of four point
four point twenty five. He's been one of those guys
that's come off off of like the openers, Clay Holmes.
It's been incredible this year one point eight six ERA,
but an almost two run difference of three point seventy five,
which is still respectable. Is fit a three point four
to five and an x FIP of three point seventy five,
So even though it's a bump, it's still pretty respectable.
I'm gonna do a few more here. Well, actually, hey,
let's do a few more Michael mcgre and these are
guys I'm gonna focus on guys that are in the
Yahoo Top one hundred. Foster Griffin two point one two ERA.
He was actually good again today though, has a four
point one expected ERA of four point zero eight FIP
but a three point eight six x FIP, he's been good.
And then Michael, and then two more Michael McGreevy with
the Cardinals two point one eight, Holy crap, an almost
three ERA difference a five point zero seven, but his
FIP and x FIP are in the high threes. And
then Justin Robleski a three point four to two ERA
but at four point zero nine expected era, a FIP
of three point five to nine, but an x FIP
of four point eighty six. Robleski does not strike out
literally any human beings. So those are pictures Nick Martinez,
Clay Holmes, Foster Griffin, Robleski that are all inside the
top one hundred that have significant expected ERA differences higher
than their ERA. If you could only pick one to
buy in rest of season, Martinez, Holmes, Griffin, McGreevy and Robleski,
who are you buying?
Speaker 3: Ooh, that's a good call.
Speaker 4: I think it's probably gonna be Griffin because McGreevy, like
just again at his avant page, it's like, when when
is he gonna fall off?
Speaker 3: I don't know. Foster.
Speaker 4: Griffin isn't much better. He's a little better in this
VMP page, but not much better. Let me take a
look at Clay Holmes right here. I was kind of
looking at these guys. I looked at e Rods in
that mess too, but he looks.
Speaker 2: Well, all the guys that are yell, I got you.
Speaker 4: Yeah, probably Clay Holmes out of all those guys, great
ground ball rate. He's still getting guys to chase. Uh
So it's probably Clay Holmes. But I don't know if
I really like any of those names that he listed
off in the middle right now.
Speaker 2: Okay, so then you're kind of a seller on all
those guys.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think so.
Speaker 2: I kind of still like Forrest Foster Griffin. I want
to like Robleski, but holy god, he has a twelve
percent K percentage. He has a six percent walker. That's
a six percent K minus walk percentage.
Speaker 4: He's at the bottom two percent of with and K percentage.
Uh bottom thirty five percent in ground ball percentage as well.
Speaker 2: There's just only so much like wheak contact that's going
to do. He doesn't get anything by anybody, so I'd.
Speaker 3: Say, just doesn't walk anybody.
Speaker 2: It's probably Clay Holmes. But Clay Holmes doesn't strike anybody out.
I'd probably go Clay Holmes. Then I guess Robleski and
then Foster Griffin are the three that I'm I'm still
kind of buying them. Nick Martinez is tough. He feels
like an easy trade candidate. Maybe he's the best of
all of them. To be honest with you, I don't
trust McGreevy, and I guess you can hear my voice.
I don't really trust Robleski.
Speaker 3: Yeah, like that's and you know it's crazy.
Speaker 2: By the way, he had a twenty seven percent percentage
last year.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't know what's going well, yeah, predominant, but
but I mean he is not striking anybody out this year.
He's missing no bats, and I think he's gonna that's
eventually going to catch up to you and start making
you pay so.
Speaker 2: Or is it going to turn the other direction? He
did just strike out seven versus the Braves, Like you
know that maybe is the start of it. I don't know,
you know now that I'm I'm thinking it through more.
Maybe it is Robleski because the team context and maybe
the us from reliever to starters taking a longer time
and striking out those braves as he did and he
had a twenty seven percent. You know what, I'm gonna
flip on the fly. I'm gonna put Rebleski at one
play Foster Griffin. That's what I'm gonna do, all right.
Some others just for you guys to know. Edward Rodriguez,
as you had mentioned, two point two five ERA, but
a four point six expected. The FIP and x FIP
kind of tell the same story.
Speaker 3: I love it, but it's never gonna last.
Speaker 2: Nope. H Randy Vasquez my boy three point zero five
ERA has an expected four point sixty seven. That's not great,
but it's FIP is three point four to one and
his x FIP is also under four, so you know,
take that for what it is. Conley Early three point
one six ERA has an expected four point seven to
one and the FIP and x FIP are both over four,
so that could be a concerning sign. And then you've
got Seth Lugo with a three point two one but
an expected four point four to six. But check this out.
His FIP is two point seven, it's better than his ERA,
and his x FIP is still at least like under
four if you buy that. The last four. Matthew Libertre
four point zero seven has an over five expected ERA.
Uh Sigano four point zero seven expected six sixty six.
That's not good. And then there are two guys at
the bottom here that well, I guess we'll stop there
for just a second, because you had two guys that
had high eras with much better expected Obviously, I think
Conley Early is the hands down most talented player of
all of those, and I think is gonna kind of
beat the negative press here. I would say the only
two I have interest in here truly or Conley Early
in Vasquez cut Lugo's line, but type of guy.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, those last two are interesting, but the I
have no interest in Sigana libitoor Lugo, No thanks.
Speaker 2: And then the two guys that you put on here,
it's because they have like one and a half to
almost two run differentials. Mike Burrows has a five point
zero four ERA but an expected three point seventy nine,
and he's just Lozardo five point nine to eight, but
in a spected three point two to one and a
fifth that's even lower, it's under three. I know this
doesn't mean everything to everybody all the time, but it's
just like by Lozardo, he is super inconsistent. I can't continue.
But when he's on, He's on, and the numbers are
saying bye bye bye, and.
Speaker 4: The Savant page is red red. So like, I think
Lozardo is going to become way better. We said that,
I think in the last show or maybe two shows ago,
and then he got absolutely hammered, which I understand. He's
very frustrating this year. But he is about to get
way better, I think. So I'm buying on Lazarta where
I can.
Speaker 2: All right, some K percentage differences. Now this is going
to be twenty twenty five to twenty twenty six. This
is interesting. These are your starter increases. We've got starter
increases and decreases, and if we have time, we'll do
a quick jump through on some release pictures. Your number
one K percentage increase at least of the players that
we're looking here. I don't know if this is in
the entire league, if that's how you did it, but
everyone qualify, yes, okay, And I think this is ranked
by their Yahoo preseason rank. Is how you have sorted?
Uh so this isn't the number one actually, but of
the highest ranked players, Jacob de Grom went from twenty
seven point seven to thirty two point eight so far,
this year a five percent K percentage increase. And that's
really interesting because what did we see last year? We
saw the usage of the change up. You know, he
was like not being just a you know, fastball slider guy.
And the changeup has gone up even more this year,
and it looks like it's just it's still effective thirty
nine percent wift percentage. The changeup has got a thirty
three percent K percentage. His slider looks even better. I mean,
when Jacob de gram is on, I guess this isn't
a surprise, but I think there were people that were
kind of washy of like, oh, you know, you know,
he's changing his arsenal, he's throwing a tiny bit lighter,
he's throwing a change up. Maybe he can't still be
a big K guy. He is thirty two point eight percent.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, the the WIF rate is just way
up on the fastball in particular, twenty one and a
half percent last year, twenty six point one percent this year.
So it's funny because he's the one guy on the
like the the positive list who's actually lower than his
preseason rank.
Speaker 2: I think, oh, I see that.
Speaker 4: Three and all the rest of these guys are one
twenty or below in the preseason rank, and they all
are higher than they were ranked.
Speaker 2: Maybe the most interesting of all of them is this
next guy who was outside the top one hundred. His
rank is super high this year because he moved from
a twenty percent K percentage to a twenty eight percent
This year. It's Shoto Imanaga, and Shoda has thrown his
fastball a full mile pro hoer, harder, which has gotten
a few more whiffs. I don't know, is that induced
more k's Yeah? I mean, last year, dude, twelve percent
K percentage. This year's fastball is twenty five percent. But
also he has induced more and this might be the
why the fastball has been more efficient. His split finger
and sweeper are more disgusting than ever. They're getting higher
wiff rates and that is helping the forcing fastball get
higher K percentages. He's just been more efficient. It's still
not a power fastball, Gotta be honest with you, it's
still hard to believe. But expected numbers are still slaying
the same thing, and it's just a massive increase. Are
you just are you a buyer that showeda Is this
guy now for the rest of the season.
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 4: I mean he scrapped the slider, went down in pitches
and mixes more now. Right, Like he had forty eight
point seven on the four semer and thirty one point
four on the split last year. He's more on the split,
less on the four seamer. He's throwing the sweeper a
decent amount and the sinker a little bit more. The
sinker was one point two percent last year, it's six
point three percent this year, so he's mixing differently and
the velow increase. Just everything has been good for you, Monaga,
So I'm definitely by on him.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I still have some questions. I think
can come back down a little bit, but it's gonna
be hard to not be like that efficient Jose Sorianos.
We talked about twenty one to twenty eight percent. That's
it's been a huge piece of like why he's been
so successful. We already talked a lot about him. Emerson Hancock,
I'm just thoroughly intrigued with and his has been pretty
like pretty standard outside of like he went from a
sixteen percent K percentage to a twenty seven percent, so
that is well below average to a upper upper tier,
and it is I think predominantly thanks to his sweeper.
Speaker 3: His sneaker that he's.
Speaker 2: Throwing twenty one percent of the time has a thirty
six percent with rate that has made his forcing fastball better.
He has his sinker to obviously set stuff up, and
the cutter, it's another thing we've got talked about. He's
also throwing because his sweepers is seventy seven mile hour pitch.
He's also throwing this harder cutter that has a twenty
eight percent with rate on it, and that cutter has
a twenty three percent K percentage and his sweeper a
forty eight percent K percentage. And he has been a
high end with the low walks and the high strikeouts.
Like this is why he's been so fantasy relevant. But
do you buy it with the Castillo stuff that's coming out.
Hancock also had his first kind of like real nasty
game happened recently. Are you buying the increase in case
that it can stay above, you know, or stay around
this twenty seven percent range.
Speaker 4: I don't know if it can stay there, but it's
definitely going to be better, And I just he's mixing
differently this year, right. Sinker was thirty eight percent last
year is down to twenty four percent this year for
seamers twenty six point eight last year's thirty five point
nine this year. You said he threw the sweeper literally
forty six pitches last year in now he already has
one hundred and sixty this year. It's his third most
thrown pitch twenty one point six percent. And the cutter
was down below. I mean, he threw one cutter last
year and he's thrown eighty this year. So he's mixed differently.
Maybe maybe that will get figured out eventually, because if
you look at his like, uh, if you look at
his some on page, the average exit v low is low,
the chase is low, the barrel percentages in the him
fifteen percent. So he does get hit when he gets hit,
but no one has been used to this mix. Now
I feel like he's harder to pick up because of it.
So I think he is going to be better. I
don't know if it lasts this well for the whole season.
Speaker 2: And it's a pitcher friendly environment, which.
Speaker 4: It is, and it's not He's not the one piggybacking, right,
it's Castillo and Miller are piggybacking. So it seems like
he has this job locked up until he really fails.
Speaker 2: Some others Landon Route went from twenty one to twenty
eight point eight percent, Will Warren from twenty four to
twenty nine point eight percent. We saw Tadj Bradley go
from twenty one to twenty six and Randy Vasquez from
thirteen to twenty three percent. Se Vasquez become serviceable, Bradley
becomes above average, Will Warren becomes well above average, and
Landon Roupe is just kind of a like out of nowhere,
really super interesting. One three point zero nine era so
far this year. Peripherals through the roof. He's walking a
little too much, but he is a three point zero
nine ERA. He's expected er is better at two point
five to three. And maybe the weirdest thing I have
seen he has not given up a barrel all season long.
That's actually ridiculous. I can't even fathom how he's done
that with rates on the curveball and change up look awesome.
The cutter looks good right now. He's throwing that more
this year. Batting average against his top three pitches are
under two hundred. Lann and Ralph seems like an absolute
stud right now. I don't think he's at this level
of studeley, but you have expected numbers that are telling
a better story. So how do you rank these guys? Raup, Warren, Bradley, Vasquez.
Speaker 4: Oh well, I think Bradley has to be at the
bottom right now because he's on the IL. So I'll
stick Bradley at the IL kind of easily. I put
Vasquez at three. I think i'd put Warren ahead of
Roup slightly.
Speaker 2: Wait, what does the order say, I'm sorry, say again,
I'm gonna go.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go Warren, Raup, Vasquez, Bradley because Bradley's on
the eye else I don't want you know, uh, but
I know, I think, uh, Warren at the top and
rap second and Basquez third. I raup man this The
savant page looks great too, but it's I just don't
know how sustainable this is because he's not getting great
strikeout like, he's not getting a lot of chase and whiffs.
He walks a lot as well, and the Villo is
not impressive. So I kind of feel like the other
shoe is gonna drop at some point. So but I
do I mean, he's been great, there's no denying that.
And everything else looks great here, So I just think
a guy with average velo usually gets caught up with So.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's you're not wrong about that. It's just interesting
pitch mix with like weak contact. Yeah maybe these things
like what you do worry is if like the if
the walks become worse, he's gonna fall apart. I think
I'm a kind of agreement. It's definitely Warren at the top.
I'll go Route two, Bradley three, in Vasquez four, But
I think it's Warren is just above all of them.
Speaker 4: But I think it's just Will Warren is a pretty
similar page. By the way, the fastball velo is not
that great with percentage not that great. He's k percentage
is much higher, and he's getting fewer barrels, but or
I mean, he's getting some barrels, but uh, fewer hard hits.
So I don't know, Like I it's it's hard to
arrange these guys, But that's how I would have it.
Warren route Basquez, Bradley, and what were you you were?
Speaker 2: I were in Warren route Bradley, Vasquez.
Speaker 3: Okay, Okay.
Speaker 2: A couple other increases. Davis Martin went from seventeen to
twenty seven percent. That's huge. Big story fourteen to nineteen
from a Greevy also tells the low case. Also Daniel
Lynch fifteen to thirty three percent. But I think that's uh,
isn't he really? I think he's a relief pitcher right now?
Speaker 3: Yeah? Probably. I think I just forgot to pull him
out of there.
Speaker 2: Bryce Elder nineteen to twenty four and Chase the latter
who got pulled today eighteen to twenty six percent and
big increases Lender, Yeah, Dulanda, Yeah, the latter said on
the decreases. Here were some decreases. We saw Turk Scoubel
lose five five miles part five k percentage points from
thirty two to twenty seven. Logan Gilbert from thirty two
to twenty five. That one really hurts. And George Kirby
from twenty six to twenty. It just kills the fantasy
value of Gilbert and Kirby if they just can't be
consistent k options. Gilbert stinks. I think it takes him
out of the elite territory. But man, I've moved off
the Kirby train, dude, where Kirby's just becoming more of
a mediocre pitcher than anything else at this point.
Speaker 4: Yeah, he's still top one hundred, he's ninety third, but
his preseason rank was forty four, so like it has
become tough with him and he has.
Speaker 2: A sub three era, Like I eat my words. I
guess Hancock is.
Speaker 4: The only one that is performing well in this rotation
right because Castillo has been miserable, Wu has been bad.
Logan Gilbert's blow average, So Hancock is the only one
over performing in Seattle at all, which is weird.
Speaker 2: They always have a guy that does it. Logan web
went from twenty six down to twenty That was a huge,
huge piece of like me buying in of some of
the mediocrity was about the k's, and the k's are
gone and he's hurt, so that stinks tough. Framervaldez twenty
three down to seventeen point nine, not about that guy. Yep.
Zach Wheeler thirty three down to twenty.
Speaker 3: Three only has a few starts.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that one. I'm not too I'm actually
doing an episode with the Rico and Frank Stanful for
Fantasy Pros, a debate one, and I know Zach Wheeler
is going to be a part of it. And it's
just like I just don't think people are properly valuing
Zach Wheeler because like he's back, he's been elite, like
he's still adjusting. Like I feel like the overall numbers
skew his value and we're going to debate that. Zach
Gallon twenty one to fifteen, also the most cuddable player
in baseball. Yeah, he stinks Cole Reagan's thirty eight, which
was small sample size to a still elite twenty nine
point eight, but injuries and stuff. Andrew Abbott decreased from
twenty one down to six, Team, Shane Bos twenty four
to nineteen, Joy Kintillo twenty six to twenty one, Sunday
Grade twenty six to twelve, and Justin Robleski twenty seven
to twelve.
Speaker 4: Some me, Gray pitched yesterday and he he did pitch well.
So let me see what his percentage is at now.
Speaker 2: His percentage is now at fifteen percent, so not much better.
I mean it went from twelve fifteen. Yeah, I went up,
I would say, but.
Speaker 3: Not much better. He's stuck out six percent down.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but I can I'm not going to focus on
that like too too much. When he just he struck
out six in six if maybe there were injury issues
that Like it's a little narrative based and stuff, but
you had a kind of rough schedule. Padres Brewers twins
were hot.
Speaker 4: But then I guess he's gone up against Soriano had
a tougher schedule than that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, point that out, I guess. But I'm not a
defender of Sunny Gray. I don't really care about him.
All those guys decreases, I don't know what. Like, I
think Zach Gallon's decrease has been a it's a pure
tall tale sign of why he is not.
Speaker 4: The reason it doesn't matter is because he's so cutable,
like he's just been terrible.
Speaker 2: But also like he is so cuttable. Part of the reason, Yeah,
he has no ability to strike out. Andrew Abbott has
become tough to use. Shane Boss, same thing, Shamee Boz
has gone from like solid strikeout to well below and
everything is bad. So you know, obviously the correlations to
strikeout numbers are some of these guys. I don't believe
the Zach Wheeler one. I think Logan Gilbert can turn
it around, and I think the Cole Reagan's one doesn't
really actually tell us something, but there's some significant guys
on why you would why you would bounce out on them,
So very very interesting stuff. Bogs. Maybe we'll even next
week we'll slide in some of those relievers, but we're
going to do a focus on hitting each week, one
once a week, focus on pitching once a week, and
then do some of our games that we do. So
I definitely enjoyed that. Let us in the show out though,
taking a look and picking some two start pitchers here,
which I'm looking at the wrong sheet, That's why I
cannot find it. So we have got the CBS sheet
up here for our two starts. Next week, you're top
end pitchers. You'll have your Chris Sale, you have your
Nolan McLain, I, Managa mis Erowski. So you've got some
big dogs. Dylan c I think yeah, to be fair,
you're right, Parker Messick, you're probably not gonna have Max Freed.
Shaye McClanahan has been elite, so he's in the elite territory.
Will Warren, let's stop here and let's start picking apart.
Mitch Keller just got banged around eighty five PC on CBS.
Has the Cardinals in the blue Jays.
Speaker 3: Yeah or nay, no, he looks bad right now.
Speaker 2: Yep. Robbie Ray, Oh my god, Robbie Ray's phenomenal. He's
got the Diamondbacks against Gallon in a revenge game, and
then the White Sox. I would that's that feels great.
Speaker 3: I don't know.
Speaker 4: Was he good at Chase? And then the White Socks
are the only team to get to Soriano. But you're right,
I'm rolling Robbie right.
Speaker 2: Franbur's got the Cardinals and the and the Orioles are
the Cardinals, the Cleveland Guardians and the Orioles.
Speaker 3: That's that's fine.
Speaker 2: It's fine if you're still rolling them out, dude. Foster Griffin,
Mets and the Braves.
Speaker 3: I don't know, Like Roster Griffin has been great, but
that is I.
Speaker 2: Might play the Mets one. I'm not. I don't think
I'm doing the Braves one.
Speaker 3: What what if you can't? But what if you're weekly?
Speaker 2: I kind of think I might avoid.
Speaker 3: I think so too.
Speaker 4: I think if I have, if I have somebody with
one really good start, I think I'd rather go with
that guy.
Speaker 2: Sonny Gray has got the Royals and the Twins.
Speaker 4: I like that, Yes, especially Simmon Woods Richardson worst pitcher
in the BIGS right now.
Speaker 2: So now Max Freed has got a tough matchup against
the Braves and the Mets. But Max Meyer, but he
kind of can't get names today. But I I don't
think great last night. Yeah, he's been so good, so
I'm gonna I'm gonna go with it. Lugo red Sox
in Mariner's past.
Speaker 3: Now he's been bad past.
Speaker 4: You know, No, he hasn't been bad, but we we
just looked at him and saw that his expected here
is way higher.
Speaker 2: So I gonna be like, I'm still gonna do it.
Nicolodolo's got the Phillies and the Cardinals. That's a past.
Mackenzie Gore has got Colorado at Colorado and then the Angels.
I don't know if do Land is gonna have his
start to a skip him. So now we're going into
like probably your league. Noahs Schultz has got the Mariners
and the Giants. It's a fat pass for me.
Speaker 3: Yeah, same Reed.
Speaker 2: Debtmer's has got the A's and the Rangers. That's ass
I'm playing it. Ryan Nelson, who just struck out eight,
has got home games against the Giants and the Rockies.
I am absolutely playing it.
Speaker 4: I am too trap. It's that's it. It's one hundred
percent of trap. But I'm taking it. I'm taking that cheese.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 2: J R. Ritchie has got the Mariners in the Nationals.
Speaker 4: Does it smell like burning toast? I'll roll J Richie.
Speaker 2: I'm good to Trevor Rodgers has got the Rays and
the Tigers. That's a yea yeah. Gallon it's no. He's
got Colorado, but I just don't trust him. I might
play him against I don't know. No, let's just say no.
Kyder Montero has been really good. He's got the Guardians
and the Orioles.
Speaker 3: I mean I would rather have him than Gallon.
Speaker 2: For the week. Yeah, I mean too.
Speaker 3: Maybe not the season, but for this week.
Speaker 2: I would. Christian Scott Nationals Marlins.
Speaker 3: No, they just don't let him go deep.
Speaker 2: No, I might if I really need it. Andrew Painter,
I'm not starting, and he's got the Reds and the Guardians.
There's no chance I'm starting him. Lower percentage guys now,
Braxon Garrett, Yeah, Oh he's got a rough match.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah he does.
Speaker 2: And the Mets. I think I'm gonna skip that to
be honest. Yeah, I think so j t Gin has
been pretty good. I like him against the Angels. I
don't like him against the Padres though.
Speaker 3: But it's at San die I'm okay with him.
Speaker 2: I'm okay, okay, and then I don't really like anything else.
I could see how you've been like Lance mccoler's but
no thanks.
Speaker 3: Say that again into the microphone.
Speaker 2: No thanks, Lance mccoder's, no things. All right, there you go.
That is the episode. Boys. Uh, you know what, we
might have had one, but I'm up against it. All right,
we'll get him on my day, yep. But that is
going to do it for the episode. Thank you guys
for hanging out with us. Make sure you follow us
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I'm well, you guys, have a great one. We'll talk
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