Speaker 1: College football season is here and you're not gonna want
to miss a second of the action.
Speaker 2: On the next episode of bat On It.
Speaker 1: Ellie Stewart here in Dublin, joined by Marco DiAngelo and Yanni,
the Greek football season is finally here, boys, and well
sort of. I guess it is week zero and we
have a handful of games. But rather than bore you
with the likes of Idaho versus UNLV, We're gonna start
with the top twenty five matchup and I'm gonna get
right into it.
Speaker 2: Saturday, twelve pm.
Speaker 1: Eastern Kansas State is now a three point favorite versus
Iowa State forty nine and a half and this game
is the reason why I'm in Dublin where it's being played.
Speaker 2: And since Marco DiAngelo.
Speaker 1: Thinks I cannot be unbiased with my team, I'm gonna
give you guys a X excerpt from the gold Sheet.
This is a massive game to kick off the season
with because of how closely contested the Big Twelve is
expected to be. They have the gold Sheet nine teams
rated within a touchdown of one another. At the top
of the league entering twenty twenty five. Iowa State has
had some recent success in this matchup.
Speaker 2: That's right.
Speaker 1: Pains me to read this, but they are four and
one straight up and five and zero against the spread
in the past five seasons. But according to the gold Sheet,
they are interested in laying the points with the Wildcats.
Per Jeff Sagran, these teams played near identical schedules last year,
Iowa State number thirty four, Kansas State number thirty eight,
but the Wildcats were better and nearly every metric aside
from the record column, Kansas State outgained its opponents by
eighty three point four yards per game, and the Wildcats
held a point one excuse me, one point three yards
per play differential over their opponents, while Iowa State only
had eight point one point six edge. Caseate had a
better offensive and defensive success rate than the Cyclones, and
per ESPN's Bill Conway, the Wildcats have a higher returning
production number and case State attracted a better class of
recruits and transfers. Iowa State was the beneficiary of plus
nine turnover differential last season, in Case State was minus one.
Speaker 2: Now, as long as that turnover demon doesn't.
Speaker 1: Appear, we feel comfortable laying the small number with the Cats.
Speaker 2: In Ireland, guys.
Speaker 1: That's the gold Sheet team and they're ready for the
twenty twenty five season. They're offering up their top NFL
and college football win totals for just five dollars WT
dot Buzz backslash tg to find those five dollars releases.
Each gold Sheet release comes with expert analysis to help
you cash those tickets throughout the season. Now that I
give you guys the uh well we'll call it the
proper analysis, I'm going to take a tweet that I
saw on X This game has shitit the bed written
all over it. High expectations, travel game, spotlight game. Trying
to remain optimistic, but as a Kansas State fan, we
usually do not do well under these competitions. Twenty twelve
the Baylor game, yep, that's right. Casey was undefeated in
a thirteen and a half point favored in that one
twenty fourteen which I was at that game, case eight
was a seven point underdog at home. This multiple field goals,
dropped touchdown passes and lost to Auburn Alabama. They got
out to an early lead and then Alabama just rolled
in the second half. And then of course that BYU
game last year under those bright Lights in provo. I'm
gonna go over to VR because VR, as well as
the gold Sheet, did a nice synopsis of how I
truly do feel about my Wildcats. I've seen this dog
and pony show for far too long. Tell me I
did not come to Dublin to lose.
Speaker 3: No, I can tell you this.
Speaker 4: There's short money on both sides of this game, because
whenever there was a three and a half, it kind
of got picked off with Iowa States. So they're definitely
looking to take on Iwa State at minus three. Also
saw some Kansas State money at minus three, so you
got a difference of opinion between sharp betters, and that's
why it's staying at three. I think they're gonna let
the market to side comes Saturday, when recreational betters joined
the party. I have a lean on this game because
I thought Iowa State came in a little bit overvalued
into twenty twenty five, Like I got my fifteen teams
that I think are undervalued, fifteen teams that I think
are overvalued, and Iowa States definitely near the top of
the overvalued teams.
Speaker 3: They won. It's almost a fade of.
Speaker 4: Iowa State as much of a bet on Kansas State
because I don't remember. This is the coming off the
first time they've ever won eleven games, and they were
a little bit phony the Iowa State team. They returned
their quarterback. I know everybody's excited about Rock Obeck returning.
He had a good year last year, twenty five touchdowns,
thirty five hundred yards passing.
Speaker 3: He just doesn't have anyone to throw the ball to yet.
Speaker 4: The receiving corp is gone, so it's going to take
a little while to figure out what they have so far.
I don't like the pieces there, but they can prove
me wrong. But I don't think that's going to happen
early on. So they're going to be dependent more on
their run against Kansas State. That's a recipe for disaster.
If there's one strength they had last year, it was
stopping the run, and I don't think anything's going to
change from that defense. Also, the perfect storm is you
have overvalued versus undervalued. I thought Kansas State had a
decent year last year, but they underperformed the betting market,
even though you know they won a lot more games
than they lost. They went three and seven against the spread,
so they continue to underperform so I think you have
a little bit of an undervalued versus overvoundued spot here,
and I just like the pieces that Kansas State's returning.
You got Avery Johnson back, new offensive coordinator, probably going
to have them passed more.
Speaker 3: I don't think that's a problem.
Speaker 4: But they know they got their leading receiver back, and
they do have a running game they could rely on.
I think they're balanced with their defense. I think this
is Kansas State's game to lose. Like you said, turnovers
ultimately decide a lot of games. But if they could
play a little mistake free football, this is a very
winnable and big game for them to start off the
season with a win against Ohio State, who they lost
against last year. And you know Ohio State, Iowa State
coming off forgive me that bowl win as well. So
they're coming in with a lot of excitement. But I
think Kansas State gets to win in Ireland. Give me
Kansas State minus three.
Speaker 1: Marco di'angelo, I have traveled over a lot of parts
of these countries this country so far in the past week,
and I have seen probably two to one, if not
three to one Iowa State to Ky State fans, and
that concerns me. Maybe Ky State fans are showing up late,
maybe they're just not where I am. But if this
crowd is seventy thirty, do you still like the Wildcats here?
Speaker 5: Well, Kelly, I gave you a lot of grief last
week about the Kansas State you know, you being a
you know, non biased backer, But I do like them here.
And here's the thing you know you talked about. We've
got revenge for Kansas State. The last two seasons they
lost to them. Ironically, both of those games were the
last game of the season the last two seasons, where
this year we're kicking it off the first game of
the season, and I think that's actually going to play
into Kansas State benefit in this one. Why do I
say that, Well, we know both teams are bringing back
their starting quarterbacks, so that's a plus for both teams.
But last year, Kansas State is one of those teams
that I refer to you'll hear me often on the
show a two hundred club member. This is a team
that ran the football for two hundred yards, past the
football for two hundred yards. That balance is going to
give them I think a leg up starting the season
in this matchup they bring back all the key components
of what they did on offense last year.
Speaker 6: Now when we.
Speaker 5: Flip the defense, there's where a little bit of the
concerns were. And the concern is obviously in the Kansas
State secondary. But they have a good defensive line and
I think because of that and starting the season Beck
returning quarterback for Iowa State. He lost a few of
his pieces last year, so I think there's gonna be
a little bit of a learning curve for them on
the offensive side, and it's his targets that he had
last year at wideouts. This is gonna be where I
think the edge comes into Kansas State. And with that balance,
you go back to last year. If you look at
the stats, Kansas State should have beat them last year. Okay,
the two turnovers did them in and we never can
truly handicap turnovers. And if we have a clean game,
I think this is Kansas State's game to win.
Speaker 6: I like the fact that it's the first game of
the season.
Speaker 5: I know what you said about you know the travel,
but they both got to do it, and let's look
for this one.
Speaker 6: I almost pulled the trigger on the under.
Speaker 5: As well, because if you look at the last couple
of games, and you look at both quarterbacks coming back,
and you think of Big Twelve, and you think about.
Speaker 6: The shootouts you want to go over.
Speaker 5: But how many times have we seen in the NFL
when they play these games overseas where we saw lower
scoring games and the fact that it's the first game
of the season and all of the importance because this
is not your normal first game of the season. This
is a big game that could go a long way
in determining who wins the Big Twelve this year. So
I don't think they're gonna come out throwing it all
over the yard. They're gonna play conservative, not to make
a mistake. I like Kansas State. My projected score is
Kansas State twenty seven to twenty. If you want to
put a little on the under, I don't have a
problem with that either.
Speaker 1: I don't hate the twenty seven to twenty final, Marco,
and I hope this next game ends up twenty seven
to twenty. Fresno State Saturday night, six thirty pm Eastern
heads to Lawrence, Kansas to play the Jayhawks. Fifty and
a half is the total here, v arc Can you
confirm what John Murray told me A couple of weeks ago,
that sharp money came in at Fresno State catching two touchdowns.
Now you're looking at coming back on the other side.
Speaker 3: Yeah, because that number's going again.
Speaker 4: If you got fourteen and a half on Fresno State,
I could understand it.
Speaker 3: You know, there's a lot of excitement. New head coach.
Speaker 4: I just don't think this is a good spot for them.
The group I work with, we weren't behind any of
that Fresno State money. I just think the return of
Jellen Daniels is huge for Kansas. They're really excited about
this year. They brought in a new defensive coordinator. That
was they're talking about is just how physical this defense
is going to be revenovated home stadium, first game. I
just think this is a good spot for Kansas, and
Fresno returns a lot of players. But so what like again,
like it doesn't mean much unless you have a really,
really good team, And I just think this another team
that's a little bit overvalued is Fresno State. I look
at Kansas as a team that always more or less
gets no respect from the betting market, and here's another
example of that. They see Fresno State getting too touchdown
and they're getting the money. I think this has.
Speaker 3: Blowout written all over it. One sided.
Speaker 4: I don't think Fresno State's going to be able to
put up a lot of points at all against this
Kansas defense. And I think in the second half they
just start spread winning by margin. It gets further and
further and further away, and it gets harder and harder
for Kansas for Fresno State to catch up. I think
they easily cover this twelve and a half. Again, if
you got fourteen and a half, you got a good bet.
I get it, you got some closing line value. But
I just think right now where it's's its favorite or
pass situation, and I just don't think Fresno's defense is
going to be able to handle the run game, especially
at the quarterback running Daniel's legs are just going to
do too much damage against this defense. Gimme Kansas lay
the points and should win comfortably here.
Speaker 1: All right, Marco, you like the total here, which I
find to be very interesting because I think it correlates
with my play on the game.
Speaker 6: Yeah, Kelly, I'm looking at this one. In is VR mentioned.
Speaker 5: Kansas has a new defensive coordinator, DK McDonald he's gonna
look to fix a defense that gave up twenty nine
or more points six times last year. Now, McDonald is
no stranger to being around good defenses. Is two of
his previous stops was Iowa State and Philadelphia in the NFL,
which we know has a good defense. And sometimes the
best defense is a good offense. And this offense will
be led by Jalen Daniels at quarterback. He's a dual
threat quarterback who got better last year as the season
went on. I looked for them to play ball control
in this one, and the word out of there. With
that good offensive line that they have, they are going
to concentrate and utilize Daniels more running and read option attack.
And against the team like Fresno State out of the
Mountain West, We've seen this happen, you know, so often.
You know the Mountain West teams, you know, some of
them will put up some glossy numbers in a soft
conference and then whenever they play a more physical team
outside of the conference, they're in trouble. And I think
that that's what's gonna happen in this one. So why
am I going with the under Well? Kansas defense has
been a concern always, But we're gonna look at a
Fresno State team that incomes a new head coach, Matt
Earns is coming in.
Speaker 6: He's bringing in a quarterback who transferred from Rice E. J. Warner.
Speaker 5: Now, if you recognize that last name, yes, it is
Kurt Warner's son, and he hasn't really done anything special
as far as the quarterback goes with stat wise other
than having that that last name. I think he's going
to struggle early on in this one, and I don't
think he's gonna get as many opportunities because I think
Kansas with that ball control, is going to manipulate the
clock and shorten the game. So with that said, I'm
going under the total here. I've got this game, you
know Kansas, you know, twenty eight to seventeen type of game.
So yeah, maybe the dog hangs around, but I see
forty five or less points being scored in this one
being the opener of the season for both teams.
Speaker 1: Marco, I do agree with you there on the under
five and one to the under the last six non
conference games there for the Jayhawks, and don't forget Kurt
Warner's kid kids two and zero against the Jayhawks. That
was Cade Warner from the Kansasate Wildcats. All jokes aside there.
I will get to that breakdown here in a minute.
Right now, I'm gonna let you guys know you good.
Buy September all access for Marco D'Angelo and now get
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Speaker 2: I'm gonna gotta get to this one. I agree with VR.
Speaker 1: Maybe I missed the best of the number and something says, hey,
sit around and wait, I do think we're gonna see
some money come in on the Jayhawks here between now
and Saturday. And rightfully so, VR hit the nail on
the head. You got Jalen Daniels coming back, but unfortunately
Devin Neil left for the NFL. So now you have
a running quarterback who has had several injuries throughout his
career in his senior campaign.
Speaker 2: And yes, they have a new stadium that is halfway.
Speaker 1: Finished, so I think it's gonna be really interesting to
see how many people show up for this game. I think,
bottom line, I haven't seen enough from this Jayhawks team
to show me that they're gonna be consistent enough to
be able to blow somebody out. We weren't able to
see this team cover spreads last year. They lost games
they buy all intents and purposes, should have won. If
you look at some of the ESPN metrics, they had
ninety five plus percent chances to win those games and
couldn't get it done.
Speaker 2: And now we're asking them too late double digits. I
don't know.
Speaker 1: This is a team who's missed the postseason twelve out
of their last fourteen. I'm siding with Fresno State here
slightlyan especially if we can get a little bit higher
of a number back.
Speaker 2: Come kickoff. Let's break down this last game.
Speaker 1: Headed in to Saturday late night, I will be well,
not on an airplane yet, but headed to the airport
by the time this one gets over Sunday seven thirty pm.
Eastern Stanford is now a two and a half point
underdog at Hawaii. Total fifty two and a half. Marco
break down this one. I know you like the total
here as well.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'll me, Kelly.
Speaker 5: I'm actually gonna do a little pivot and do a
team total, not the total for the full game. We
look at this Hawaii team and this will be year
four underhead coach at Jimmy Chang and the offensive scene
improvement each of the first three years under his leadership.
They are starting new quarterback this year. He played at
New Mexico or excuse me, he played in the season
finale against New Mexico and they put up thirty eight
points in that. He saw action in the final four
games of the season last year, kind of getting him
groomed for this season. The offense also returns their top
running back in their top two receivers, so I expect
them to hit the ground running. As this offense, we'll
be able to put pressure on a Stanford defense. Now,
Stanford gave up thirty one or more points in seven
of their last nine games last year, and that's a concern.
They also have a new head coach who took the
team over late. If Stanford had to let head coach
Troy Taylor go after some off the field problems, Frank
Wright he takes over. And we know Frank Wright quarterback
former quarterback in the NFL Indianapolis Colts and everything else.
Head coach, this is a guy that's been an offensive
minded person, not so much on the defensive side. So
with this Hawaii offense playing at home in the season opener,
I don't know if Stanford's gonna have any distractions playing
in Hawaii, but you know that's always a concern teams.
Hawaii has done well and I know there's a history
of Hawaii is underdogs in these spots, but they're not
an underdog in this way. They started out that way,
but they're not anymore. I'm gonna go with the Hawaii offense.
I think they get points in this game. We're looking
at a team total of twenty six and a half.
With the returning starters that they have, I think they
get over that number. I don't think Stanford is ready
to take a polished offense yet, with all the changes
that they have coming up this season, with the turnover
from last year to this year. Let's go ahead and
take Hawaii. They seem to like to throw the ball around.
Let's keep it going. I hope Jimmy Chang keeps the
ball moving On Saturday night late night and Kelly I
am surprised you're gonna be heading to the airport Saturday night.
You're not staying in Ireland to be you know, drinking
guinness and everything, celebrating a Kansas State win with all
of your alumni.
Speaker 1: Clearly, Marco doesn't understand how time changes work. We're eight
hours ahead of Las Vegas, so pretty much by the
time that game ends, I need to be getting up
and headed to the airport.
Speaker 2: Okay, all jokes.
Speaker 1: As signed Marco, I hope what you said about Timmy
Chang and his squad is correct, because I do like
Hawaii here as well, as you mentioned eighteen starters from
last year's team that could barely squeak out five wins.
But I do think this team is going to be prepared,
especially for this game. For Lawrence's newsletter, Hawaii eleven and
two against a spread in season opening games against opponents,
including nine to one when playing against Revenge, So as
long as you're not playing an FCS school, it.
Speaker 2: Bodes well for this team.
Speaker 1: I do think Chang, who has cashed six straight home
games as an underdog and opened as an underdog, now
as a favorite, we'll get it done again.
Speaker 2: VR.
Speaker 1: Before you give us your breakdown here on Stanford Hawaii.
Please let everybody know about your promotion ACE one hundred.
That's going to take one hundred bucks off your thirty
day all access package.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and it's a good time right now, especially with
the football coming in UH one ten of my last
fourteen preseason bets.
Speaker 3: As you can see, the information keeps coming in in football.
Speaker 4: Talked about the college and the NFL season ahead, and
of course throughout this next month there's also baseball coming
down the stretch as the playoffs get here, which is
always a good time to do some damage and throughout MMA.
So you get one hundred dollars off and jump on
the next thirty days and let's do some damage, especially
with the football here.
Speaker 1: Yes, I am so excited for football season. The r
tell me why you like Hawaii money line? Is it
because we missed the boat on the plus two and
a half?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I worry about that.
Speaker 4: One of the groups I worked with took Hawaii at
plus like one and a half plus one. I laid
Moneyline minus one fifteen with my subscribers on the Hawaii signe.
I don't love that the sharps and the public are
all on the same side Hawaii, and it hasn't gotten
up to that key number of three, So pay attention
to that, especially if the money starts to continue to
come in on the Hawaii side. Now, I like Hawaii
before they even bet it, because I thought Stanford is
one of those teams that again another slightly overvalued team,
and it's hard to be overbounded when you only won
two football games the year prior.
Speaker 3: But it's all the noise.
Speaker 4: Surrounding Stanford right now, Andrew Luck, the new GM Frank
Reich head coach, all NFL experience. That hype alone is
adding a premium to Stanford that I don't think is warranted.
They haven't proven anything yet at this college level. This
isn't like a hand picked team by Reich and Luck,
so you know if it's going to take a couple
of years before it's they're actually their program. So all
the excitement, I get it, but as far as it
being producing on the field, it's not going to happen,
especially in Week one. I like Hawaii. I think that
run and shoot offense will be just fine with the
red shirt freshman like Marco touched on Alojado started against
New Mexico last year. Had one hundred and sixty three
quarterback rating, five touchdown, zero interceptions, fifty seven pass attempts
completed thirty seven of ohs, and the game they led
him in prior when they were getting blown out by
Utah State, the kid through eleven passes completed ten of them,
so obviously he's getting more and more comfort in this
run and shoot offense. I think they're gonna be able
to throw the ball against Stanford, that was their weakness.
They made a few steps of progress on the defense
against the run because their defense has been horrific the
last few seasons. They played a little better against the
run last year, but against the pass they were just awful.
Speaker 3: They're trying to revamp that secondary. It's going to take
a while.
Speaker 4: I just have to see it on the field first,
and I just think against a team like Hawaii that's
got wide receivers, quarterback offense with that kind of style,
and a solid enough defense, especially in the linebackers and secondary.
It's a defensive line that had a lot of turnover,
so see how they do up there. But I just
think Hawaii at home at a pick them was too
good to pass up. I laid minus one fifteen on
the money line to get that pick them. It's now
minus one thirty, so at least there's a little CLV there.
But like I said, what worries me is looking in
the back end right now and already seeing Hawaii money
from recreational accounts at minus two and why aren't we
had that key number yet?
Speaker 3: That always worries me.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would agree with you.
Speaker 1: VR moneyline was probably the better play there, or maybe
Marco's team total over. Either way, I'll be sleeping and
I hope to wake up and cash that ticket. Thank
you to VR, Thank you to Marco. Guys, We're going
to be back here next Wednesday for Week one of
college football, and don't forget jump in the comment section
let us know if you're happy that we're back, you're
mad that we're back, if we're missing something, we are
right now. We're going to bring you, guys back that
recap graphic that you have complained so much that has
been missing over the last couple of years. So take
a peek at that. Let me know what you guys think. Again,
make sure you guys hit that like button and subscribe.
You never miss another episode of bet on It and
of course, if you guys miss our college football preview,
you guys can check it out right here. We break
down the power for conferences, as well as a couple
of teams that we think have some value to win
the national championship.