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Speaker 1: The four biggest games for this Saturday, October the fourth,

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and college football Free picks, free and NOAWS is coming

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up right here, right now. It's the Steve Merril wager

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Talk dot Com, right back here on wager Talk TV.

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And this is your Top twenty five let me correct myself,

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top thirty video for this Saturday, October the fourth, and

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the reason I say that there's only two true top

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twenty five matchups, I'm gonna dig a little bit deeper

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into the top thirty rankings and give you two more

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bonus games as well. Let's start with those two official

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top twenty five games, both on ABC National TV. By

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the way, three thirty Eastern number sixteen Vanderbilt at number

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ten Alabama in the SEC, and who would have thought

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Vanderbilt number sixteen in the nation? Well last year or

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maybe we saw some foreshadowing when Vandy won outright as

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a twenty three point home dog against this Alabama squad.

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And Vanderbilt, by the way, third most experienced team in

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the country this year, they third returned the third most

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production of any of the one hundred and thirty six

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Division one A teams nineteen returning starters. So there's yeah,

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there's no question they can hang again this year, and

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the early money feels that way because this line open

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thirteen and a half. It's now down to ten and

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a half as we are closer to the weekend. I

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disagree with that move though. My ten thousand game simulation

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favors Alabama by fourteen points on average in this game.

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And yes, I know, normally this would look like a

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flat spot coming off the road underdog win at Georgia

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and then laying double digits against low lely Vanderbilt, but

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once again, that's not the case this year because Alabama

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will have this game circled and be fully focused after

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losing as a twenty three point road favorite last weear

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in Nashville. By the way, I don't really feel like

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it was an upset win last week at Georgia. I

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gave you in this video. Alabama outright told you I

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liked him to win that game straight up, went from

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three down to two by kickoff, and they did so.

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Won the game outright, led really from start to finish,

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and I think they carry that momentum into this game.

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Bandy might be just as good offensively, and yes they

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are explosive, but Alabama the better defensive team with revenge,

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strong home field. I think that's the difference here. Take

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a look at Alabama minus a ten and a half,

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I project a fourteen point win. Now I like it

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better at minus ten, and this line has dropped this week,

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so I would hold off. Maybe you get that key

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number of ten. Probably at least a three to four

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percent chance Bama wins by exactly ten points in this game,

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So minus ten or less if you can find it,

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I would start leaning stronger towards Alabama as I project

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a two touchdown win three thirty eastern, ABC. Hey, your

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other games also on ABC Saturday night at seven thirty eastern.

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Mind me of Florida Florida State acc battle here and

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what over the decades has been a great rivalry. It

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hasn't been as much so maybe in recent years. Last year, obviously,

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Florida State vastly underachieved. But there are much better squad

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this year. And to put it in perspective, they've already

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scored more points this year than they scored all of

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last year. In fact, their final ten games last year

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against FBS opponents, they scored sixteen or less every time,

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and they've been just smashing that number and the thirty

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one points against Alabama is looking even more impressive now

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that Bama looks for real. Yes, tough loss for Florida

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State on Friday night at UVA told you I thought

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the Cavs were a live dog in that game. Also

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gave you the over and the free play video last

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Friday night here on the channel. By the way, if

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you're liking these free play videos, all ask is a

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thumbs up like comment below as well. Would love a comment,

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but the thumbs up like takes one second. You're doing

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it right now? Is your liststening? Thank you so much so.

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I liked UVA over last week because they're an explosive

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offense Florida State as well. But I still believe in

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this Seminal squad. And normally it'd be a tough spot

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losing on an overtime game like that, having to travel

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back home and face a tough opponent. But the fact

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that it is a top ten matchup, our top ten

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ranked opponent in Miami, I think has the Seminals focused

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in this one and they will not overlook the number

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three team in the country in state rival. And also

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we get some line value. My ten thousand game simulation

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favors Miami of Florida by just two points on average

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currently Florida State plus four and a half. Also like

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the Florida State defense here, I think they are a

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live defensive dog in this game. What a difference a

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quarterback can be a guess Costellana's over from Boston College. Obviously,

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Carson Beck from Georgia is helping Miami as well, but

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Florida State still has the better offensive numbers there, averaging

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over eleven and a half yards per pass. But then

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in perspective, they throw almost twenty three times a game.

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Every time they drop back to pass, on average, they're

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getting the first down eleven and a half yards per

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pass attempt. Hey, Georgia. Miami of Florida with Carson Beck,

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former Georgia quarterback averaging eight and a half yards per

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pass not quite as explosive offensively as Florida State, who's

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averaging over eight yards per play. Miamia Florida just six

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point five yards per play. So I do feel like

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Florida State can hang in this game. Miami of Florida

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good defensive team this year, and that is still the

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big question mark obviously with Florida State, but I think

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the offense is good enough to compete in this one.

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I do rate these two teams pretty equal actually defensively

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in my overall power ratings. Might surprise some people. Miami

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might be a little more explosive at times on offense,

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but I think Florida State has the big play ability

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to keep this one close four and a half. I

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think there is a little bit of line value with

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Florida State, even after that tough loss in Uva last week.

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Seven thirty Eastern an ABC. Are those your two true

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top twenty five head to head matchups? As I always do,

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I want to dig deeper, give you as much information

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as possible, So I'm a look at two bonus games here.

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They're both top thirty. The way that's figured is you

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can see the additional votes in the AP poll, and

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these are teams that are very close to being in

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the top twenty five based on the additional votes, and

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one of them is Louisville who's coming in right now thirtieth.

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They're the fifth most additional votes this week, and they're

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actually a six and a half point favorite against Uva,

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who is ranked for the first time. The Cavaliers. We

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just talked about come in unranked all season now number

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twenty four after that upset win against Florida State. Boy,

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does this have upset or letdown? I should say written

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all over it? And by the way, can we say

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it's an upset of Louisville wins as a six and

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a half point favorite. Chime in below? Do you consider

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it an upset at the higher ranked team loses or

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if the point spread team loses. You know my thoughts

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on that it's an upset of Louisville loses. There are

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a six and a half point favorite, and I'll tell

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you right now, the odds makers know a lot more

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than the beat writers voting in the AP or the

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coaches poll. Let me know your thoughts in that comment

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below they I'd love to hear your take on that

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as well. By the way, I do read the comments

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and I reply back here on wager Talk TV. Not

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only is UVA in the top twenty five, which could

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be a little bit of an emotional letdown, but it's

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also a huge flat spot after that emotional win on

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Friday night as a touchdown home dog against Florida State

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with one of the biggest wins in decades. In Charlottesville.

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The men of the game ended. About half a second

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after the game ended, about thousands of fans rushed the field, students,

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I should say, some got injured. By the way. It

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was not pretty. No barrier there, you got that grassy hill.

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It was like a damn overflowing with no damn to

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stop them. I think this has let down written all

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over it. My concern is that UVA is a great

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offensive team. They put up over seven hundred yards are

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actually exactly seven hundred yards against my Wille and Mary

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Tribe a few weeks ago. That was a school record,

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over a one hundred year record, broken up fifty two

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to seven with six hundred and twenty five yards mid

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third quarter in that game. Followed up with almost six

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hundred yards the next week against Stanford. So yes, UVA

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can move the ball, there's no question about it. But

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Louisville's an underrated offense as well. And this Alleuisville team

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averaging thirty eight points a game, over six yards per play,

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nearly eight yards per pass, and the difference is I

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don't trust the UVA defense. I think that's UVa's problem

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this year. Very mediocre defense. In fact, the numbers check out.

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They've allowed five point eight yards for play against teams

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that average five point eight. If you get up seven

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point six yards per pass against teams at average seven

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point eight, Louisville average is seven point eight. They average

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six point one yards per play. But the difference is

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Louisville's defense giving up just four point five yards per

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play against teams at average five point three. So the

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stronger overall defense in this game with Louisville, and definitely

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the better situational spot. So let's look at the math here.

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My ten thousand game simulation on average has Louisville winning

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by eight points. A rank poke offense is pretty equal,

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but I give you Louisville a substantial defensive edge and

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the situational spot at six and a half. I would

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lean Louisville here, which is a key number seven but

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a four to five percent chance. By the way, the

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Cardinals win by exactly seven, So you really want to

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get six and a half or less. If you like Louisville,

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play it sooner than later, because we are seeing six

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and a halves minus fifteen. If you like Virginia, wait,

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you might get a plus seven by kickoff on Saturday

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afternoon at three thirty Eastern, but I would rather be

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on Louisville minus six and a half. That game, by

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the way, is at three thirty Eesterra, as I mentioned

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on ESPN two the Deuce on Saturday afternoon. All right,

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one other game on the outside looking in the top

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thirty rankings though, is number twenty eight Mississippi State at

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number six Texas A and M. Mississippi State in the

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third most additional votes this week in the AP top

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twenty five, so they're coming in twenty eighth right now technically,

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and no question if they pulled the upset here, they

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will be right next week. But I don't think that's

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going to happen. Currently, they're about a fifteen and a

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half to sixteen point road dog at Texas A and M.

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And it's a bad spot after that Tennessee overtime loss.

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We talked about Virginia in a tough spot after the

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overtime win, perhaps even worse for Missippi State. I think

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the letdowns hangovers happened even more after tough losses, and

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it was a tough one as a seven and a

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half point home dog boy lucky cover there and overtime

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losing by seven, but they were up by seven late

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Tennessee scored at the end of regulation just to for SOT,

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So if you ended up getting just seven instead of

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seven and a half, that was a tough push from

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Misissippi State, and I do think that could linger a

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bit here my overall. By the way, my ten thousand

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game simulation does favor A and M by seventeen points.

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I think the line is very accurate at fifteen and

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a half sixteen and not in a hurry to late

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points with A and M either elco just three and

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ten as a big favor as a favorite here in

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recent years, including last week where they did not cover

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against Auburn, winning just sixteen to ten. But because of

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that low scoring misleading low scoring game, I think we

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get some value this week. A and M had over

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four hundred yards of all with only sixteen points, and

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they are still an explosive offensive team this year. And

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if Mississippi State comes a little bit flat, as I

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think they might, it very well might show on the

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defensive side of the ball, as is often the case.

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I ranked both offenses stronger than the opposing defenses as well.

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So where am I going with this? I like the

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over fifty five and a half. Very reasonable number for

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two teams that can put up some points this season.

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Obviously overtime adds into the totals, but still high scoring games.

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We had seventy five points in that Mississippi State Tennessee

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game I reference in a few weeks ago in eighty

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one points in that Notre Dame and Texas A and

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M game. That's really the only good offensive opponent they

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faced this year. But they even gave up twenty four

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points in a sixty six point game forty two to

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twenty four against Texas San Antonio back in late August.

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The road Runners be beep. So I do think A

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and M could be scored on here by Misssippi State.

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Just not sure Mississippi State can stop A and M.

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On the season, A and M average over nine yards

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per pass Bulldogs Mississippi State average under eight yards per pass,

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two explosive pass attacks. I looked for some points here.

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Let's stay off the side and play over fifty five

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and a half between Misissippi State Texas A and M.

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And that game is on Saturday night, seven thirty Eastern

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on appropriately the SEC network. Hey, there you go. The

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four biggest games, at least from a ranking perspective. The

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four head to head Top thirty matchups this Saturday, August,

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the fourth week six college football were almost halfway through

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the season. Hard to believe. Let me know your thoughts

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in these games, but more importantly, other games you like

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this Saturday, drop them in the comments below. Talked about

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the big games here, maybe some of those under the

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radar mid major games power a group of five conference games.

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Let me know if you see some value there, gluesome analysis.

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You have time, Let's learn and earn and win together

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here on wager Talk TV. And don't forget if you

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liking these videos, I asked for a positive comment below,

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that's great, but just a thumbs up like is the minimum.

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Keep these videos coming and I will do more and

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For this weekend as well, I'd like to get my

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personal best bets for this weekend. You can get them

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slash sm on the way out. You can follow me

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on social media at Steve Merrill two R S one

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on x and Instagram, and stay tuned here to wager

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Talk TV because you know there's more free play videos

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coming up next