Speaker 1: The four biggest games for this Saturday, October the fourth,
and college football Free picks, free and NOAWS is coming
up right here, right now. It's the Steve Merril wager
Talk dot Com, right back here on wager Talk TV.
And this is your Top twenty five let me correct myself,
top thirty video for this Saturday, October the fourth, and
the reason I say that there's only two true top
twenty five matchups, I'm gonna dig a little bit deeper
into the top thirty rankings and give you two more
bonus games as well. Let's start with those two official
top twenty five games, both on ABC National TV. By
the way, three thirty Eastern number sixteen Vanderbilt at number
ten Alabama in the SEC, and who would have thought
Vanderbilt number sixteen in the nation? Well last year or
maybe we saw some foreshadowing when Vandy won outright as
a twenty three point home dog against this Alabama squad.
And Vanderbilt, by the way, third most experienced team in
the country this year, they third returned the third most
production of any of the one hundred and thirty six
Division one A teams nineteen returning starters. So there's yeah,
there's no question they can hang again this year, and
the early money feels that way because this line open
thirteen and a half. It's now down to ten and
a half as we are closer to the weekend. I
disagree with that move though. My ten thousand game simulation
favors Alabama by fourteen points on average in this game.
And yes, I know, normally this would look like a
flat spot coming off the road underdog win at Georgia
and then laying double digits against low lely Vanderbilt, but
once again, that's not the case this year because Alabama
will have this game circled and be fully focused after
losing as a twenty three point road favorite last weear
in Nashville. By the way, I don't really feel like
it was an upset win last week at Georgia. I
gave you in this video. Alabama outright told you I
liked him to win that game straight up, went from
three down to two by kickoff, and they did so.
Won the game outright, led really from start to finish,
and I think they carry that momentum into this game.
Bandy might be just as good offensively, and yes they
are explosive, but Alabama the better defensive team with revenge,
strong home field. I think that's the difference here. Take
a look at Alabama minus a ten and a half,
I project a fourteen point win. Now I like it
better at minus ten, and this line has dropped this week,
so I would hold off. Maybe you get that key
number of ten. Probably at least a three to four
percent chance Bama wins by exactly ten points in this game,
So minus ten or less if you can find it,
I would start leaning stronger towards Alabama as I project
a two touchdown win three thirty eastern, ABC. Hey, your
other games also on ABC Saturday night at seven thirty eastern.
Mind me of Florida Florida State acc battle here and
what over the decades has been a great rivalry. It
hasn't been as much so maybe in recent years. Last year, obviously,
Florida State vastly underachieved. But there are much better squad
this year. And to put it in perspective, they've already
scored more points this year than they scored all of
last year. In fact, their final ten games last year
against FBS opponents, they scored sixteen or less every time,
and they've been just smashing that number and the thirty
one points against Alabama is looking even more impressive now
that Bama looks for real. Yes, tough loss for Florida
State on Friday night at UVA told you I thought
the Cavs were a live dog in that game. Also
gave you the over and the free play video last
Friday night here on the channel. By the way, if
you're liking these free play videos, all ask is a
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I liked UVA over last week because they're an explosive
offense Florida State as well. But I still believe in
this Seminal squad. And normally it'd be a tough spot
losing on an overtime game like that, having to travel
back home and face a tough opponent. But the fact
that it is a top ten matchup, our top ten
ranked opponent in Miami, I think has the Seminals focused
in this one and they will not overlook the number
three team in the country in state rival. And also
we get some line value. My ten thousand game simulation
favors Miami of Florida by just two points on average
currently Florida State plus four and a half. Also like
the Florida State defense here, I think they are a
live defensive dog in this game. What a difference a
quarterback can be a guess Costellana's over from Boston College. Obviously,
Carson Beck from Georgia is helping Miami as well, but
Florida State still has the better offensive numbers there, averaging
over eleven and a half yards per pass. But then
in perspective, they throw almost twenty three times a game.
Every time they drop back to pass, on average, they're
getting the first down eleven and a half yards per
pass attempt. Hey, Georgia. Miami of Florida with Carson Beck,
former Georgia quarterback averaging eight and a half yards per
pass not quite as explosive offensively as Florida State, who's
averaging over eight yards per play. Miamia Florida just six
point five yards per play. So I do feel like
Florida State can hang in this game. Miami of Florida
good defensive team this year, and that is still the
big question mark obviously with Florida State, but I think
the offense is good enough to compete in this one.
I do rate these two teams pretty equal actually defensively
in my overall power ratings. Might surprise some people. Miami
might be a little more explosive at times on offense,
but I think Florida State has the big play ability
to keep this one close four and a half. I
think there is a little bit of line value with
Florida State, even after that tough loss in Uva last week.
Seven thirty Eastern an ABC. Are those your two true
top twenty five head to head matchups? As I always do,
I want to dig deeper, give you as much information
as possible, So I'm a look at two bonus games here.
They're both top thirty. The way that's figured is you
can see the additional votes in the AP poll, and
these are teams that are very close to being in
the top twenty five based on the additional votes, and
one of them is Louisville who's coming in right now thirtieth.
They're the fifth most additional votes this week, and they're
actually a six and a half point favorite against Uva,
who is ranked for the first time. The Cavaliers. We
just talked about come in unranked all season now number
twenty four after that upset win against Florida State. Boy,
does this have upset or letdown? I should say written
all over it? And by the way, can we say
it's an upset of Louisville wins as a six and
a half point favorite. Chime in below? Do you consider
it an upset at the higher ranked team loses or
if the point spread team loses. You know my thoughts
on that it's an upset of Louisville loses. There are
a six and a half point favorite, and I'll tell
you right now, the odds makers know a lot more
than the beat writers voting in the AP or the
coaches poll. Let me know your thoughts in that comment
below they I'd love to hear your take on that
as well. By the way, I do read the comments
and I reply back here on wager Talk TV. Not
only is UVA in the top twenty five, which could
be a little bit of an emotional letdown, but it's
also a huge flat spot after that emotional win on
Friday night as a touchdown home dog against Florida State
with one of the biggest wins in decades. In Charlottesville.
The men of the game ended. About half a second
after the game ended, about thousands of fans rushed the field, students,
I should say, some got injured. By the way. It
was not pretty. No barrier there, you got that grassy hill.
It was like a damn overflowing with no damn to
stop them. I think this has let down written all
over it. My concern is that UVA is a great
offensive team. They put up over seven hundred yards are
actually exactly seven hundred yards against my Wille and Mary
Tribe a few weeks ago. That was a school record,
over a one hundred year record, broken up fifty two
to seven with six hundred and twenty five yards mid
third quarter in that game. Followed up with almost six
hundred yards the next week against Stanford. So yes, UVA
can move the ball, there's no question about it. But
Louisville's an underrated offense as well. And this Alleuisville team
averaging thirty eight points a game, over six yards per play,
nearly eight yards per pass, and the difference is I
don't trust the UVA defense. I think that's UVa's problem
this year. Very mediocre defense. In fact, the numbers check out.
They've allowed five point eight yards for play against teams
that average five point eight. If you get up seven
point six yards per pass against teams at average seven
point eight, Louisville average is seven point eight. They average
six point one yards per play. But the difference is
Louisville's defense giving up just four point five yards per
play against teams at average five point three. So the
stronger overall defense in this game with Louisville, and definitely
the better situational spot. So let's look at the math here.
My ten thousand game simulation on average has Louisville winning
by eight points. A rank poke offense is pretty equal,
but I give you Louisville a substantial defensive edge and
the situational spot at six and a half. I would
lean Louisville here, which is a key number seven but
a four to five percent chance. By the way, the
Cardinals win by exactly seven, So you really want to
get six and a half or less. If you like Louisville,
play it sooner than later, because we are seeing six
and a halves minus fifteen. If you like Virginia, wait,
you might get a plus seven by kickoff on Saturday
afternoon at three thirty Eastern, but I would rather be
on Louisville minus six and a half. That game, by
the way, is at three thirty Eesterra, as I mentioned
on ESPN two the Deuce on Saturday afternoon. All right,
one other game on the outside looking in the top
thirty rankings though, is number twenty eight Mississippi State at
number six Texas A and M. Mississippi State in the
third most additional votes this week in the AP top
twenty five, so they're coming in twenty eighth right now technically,
and no question if they pulled the upset here, they
will be right next week. But I don't think that's
going to happen. Currently, they're about a fifteen and a
half to sixteen point road dog at Texas A and M.
And it's a bad spot after that Tennessee overtime loss.
We talked about Virginia in a tough spot after the
overtime win, perhaps even worse for Missippi State. I think
the letdowns hangovers happened even more after tough losses, and
it was a tough one as a seven and a
half point home dog boy lucky cover there and overtime
losing by seven, but they were up by seven late
Tennessee scored at the end of regulation just to for SOT,
So if you ended up getting just seven instead of
seven and a half, that was a tough push from
Misissippi State, and I do think that could linger a
bit here my overall. By the way, my ten thousand
game simulation does favor A and M by seventeen points.
I think the line is very accurate at fifteen and
a half sixteen and not in a hurry to late
points with A and M either elco just three and
ten as a big favor as a favorite here in
recent years, including last week where they did not cover
against Auburn, winning just sixteen to ten. But because of
that low scoring misleading low scoring game, I think we
get some value this week. A and M had over
four hundred yards of all with only sixteen points, and
they are still an explosive offensive team this year. And
if Mississippi State comes a little bit flat, as I
think they might, it very well might show on the
defensive side of the ball, as is often the case.
I ranked both offenses stronger than the opposing defenses as well.
So where am I going with this? I like the
over fifty five and a half. Very reasonable number for
two teams that can put up some points this season.
Obviously overtime adds into the totals, but still high scoring games.
We had seventy five points in that Mississippi State Tennessee
game I reference in a few weeks ago in eighty
one points in that Notre Dame and Texas A and
M game. That's really the only good offensive opponent they
faced this year. But they even gave up twenty four
points in a sixty six point game forty two to
twenty four against Texas San Antonio back in late August.
The road Runners be beep. So I do think A
and M could be scored on here by Misssippi State.
Just not sure Mississippi State can stop A and M.
On the season, A and M average over nine yards
per pass Bulldogs Mississippi State average under eight yards per pass,
two explosive pass attacks. I looked for some points here.
Let's stay off the side and play over fifty five
and a half between Misissippi State Texas A and M.
And that game is on Saturday night, seven thirty Eastern
on appropriately the SEC network. Hey, there you go. The
four biggest games, at least from a ranking perspective. The
four head to head Top thirty matchups this Saturday, August,
the fourth week six college football were almost halfway through
the season. Hard to believe. Let me know your thoughts
in these games, but more importantly, other games you like
this Saturday, drop them in the comments below. Talked about
the big games here, maybe some of those under the
radar mid major games power a group of five conference games.
Let me know if you see some value there, gluesome analysis.
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