Speaker 1: All right, everyone, welcome in. It's time for full court Press.
It's five dollars Tuesday. It's also Robino. I don't know
do they still call it Super Tuesday. I always remember
this being like the ESPN gimmick back in the day,
which was like code for basically all the big games
are tonight, always a tremendous slate. The power Conferences are back.
We've got some stragglers here from Monday. We've got some
daytime swack basketball, some daytime Southland. Once again, it takes
an apocalyptic snowstorm to give us the schedule that we
deserve on a daily basis. Robino. But there's a lot
to talk about today. How'd your Monday go? We got
the parlay home, and I told you I was gonna
wear the Lemoyne hoodie, and I got it on.
Speaker 2: And I'm sure I know the chat appreciates the Lemoyne
advice yesterday the Lemoyne hoodie. Lamoinne made it very easy
on half of our parlay. We scooted by with the
second half. The Bethune Cookman team total over seventy nine
and a half. Eighty and a half I think is
what we used here on the show. That got home
eighty two points scored by Reggie theus's team. That was
the only play I had for clients yesterday as far
as college basketball is concerned. At them, I kind of
kicked myself for mentioning the Ohio State team total on
the show and then not using it, but that's okay.
Sometimes you let one slide by when you're not too sure.
But Ohio State did get there. Penn State closed that
gap late, and I was texting you last night. The
ending to that BYU Arizona game was absolutely crazy. If
Arizona had ever lost that game, that would have been
one of the miracle finishes of all time because if
it could go wrong and if referees could help out,
all of that happened within the last, like I don't know,
fifty five seconds of that game.
Speaker 1: So yeah, the reason I didn't respond to your text
until this morning was because so I didn't have anything
on the Arizona BYU game. I was just trying to
stay up and watch and I fell asleep. Rob at
the Canard Davis hit a three. I think there was
two minutes and forty two seconds left. Canard Davis hit
a three to cut it to ten. That was the
last thing I saw. So I see your text, I'm like,
what happened here? And I woke up and rewatched the
final two and a half minutes this morning. Couldn't believe
what I was couldn't believe what I was witnessing. Crazy, man,
if you got in early on BYU and had two
and a half, that is a brutal roller coaster of
emotion right there. That end with like kind of almost
like a bad beat when it was all said and
done right because you had you had the ball with
a chance to win, and then you give up the
foul and Arizona still needs to go sink two free
throws to cover that number. So crazy finish to that game.
We've got a bunch of good game games today. We
have to start it off in the Big ten. Have
it is very rare, Rob that we have a matchup
like this this late in the season. It's also even
more rare that one is a double digit underdog. So
my buddy Krby, who does great work college basketball. I mean,
if you guys watch this show, chances are you probably
watch Korby's show. I don't even know if they're a
competitor or not. I think you should watch both. That's
what I think. I think you should go to THEIRS
and watch theirs later because they do great work as well.
But anyway, Korby posted this this morning, so I'll give
him a shout out. He said, since two thousand, just
seven Top five matchups have had a double digit spread.
All seven have been won by the favorite. The favorite
against the spread is five and two. That's kind of crazy.
There's only been seven in over twenty five years that
have had a double digit spread. That's what we're looking
at tonight in ann Arbor, Rob Nebraska has no not lost.
Is there any way the corn Huskers keep their unbeaten
season going tonight?
Speaker 2: Well, there's always a way, right, and especially the way
that they're playing at this point in time. I guess
what's even more rare is that Nebraska is one of
the top five teams involved in a game like this.
Who would have thought, But it's where we're at, and
you and I got a chance on Saturday with Kelly,
I think to talk about both of these teams. Nebraska
went to Minnesota, and I think my feeling at the
time was the way Nebraska's been on the road, and
I go back and use the example of the Indiana
game where they were at Indiana, got down sixteen in
the second half, came back and won. They did it
again against Minnesota on Saturday. Fred Hoiberg had a little
bit to say about it. It basically just said, in
the second half, we've done a really good job of
coming out of the locker room. Championship teams respond the
right way, and that's exactly what they did once again
on Saturday to win that game and going away Adam
like they won that Indiana game going away that day,
they won this game going away. They're four and oh
on the Big Ten road so far this season, so
points spread wise, when you look at the way we
have to look at it from a sports betting perspective,
I think we've talked within the last seven ten days
about how Michigan's still overvalued. Michigan inside the league has
lost six straight games to the spread. They covered against
usc and since then, not a single victory if you
bet on Michigan unless you're playing a money line. Because
they're winning games but they're not covering. They're overvalued in
the amount of points they're gonna score each and every game.
Their team total in Big ten play is now seven
and oh to the under. Not one single over from
Michigan after all those points scored. So again, this is
a little bit repetitive, but needs to be said here
today because of the matchup that the oddsmakers have had
to climb, the Michigan power rating so high, had to
claim their climb, their total rating so high that now
that we've hit conference play, it can't come down fast enough.
This game, to me very simply put in fundamental matchups
on the floor, their best against your best comes down
to tempo. Michigan's the fastest paced team in the league.
Nebraska is the slowest. They both do what they do
offensively extremely well. But I want to give you a
little something from Dusty May because I love the quotes
from these coaches, especially ones that I can put a
little stock into some just you know, rehash old coach speak.
But Dusty May pretty honest guy. Since the beginning of
the year, he was talking about how Michigan has now
faced opponents in recent games that are excessively trying to
slow the game down. Dusty May says, it's because of
our spurt ability. We're seeing it every game now, we're
seeing a lot of pass pass, pass, pass pass, and
late clock action. It's what Nebraska's going to try to do.
It's also a reason why Michigan team totals have gone
to the under not as many possessions. But Dusty May
and company are going to try and speed this Nebraska
team up tonight. Nebraska's going to try and go on
the road and slow Michigan down a couple of things
here really quick. I think Nebraska's ball handling is probably
good enough to not get caught up in and up
and down me. In other words, Michigan won't be able
to get steals turn the tide, so to speak, where
speed of the game gets going. I think Nebraska can
handle that. What I don't know if they can handle
is if they get down by a big number at halftime,
like they've done in a couple of Big ten games
against this team, and then find their way back. I
think that's going to be the probable issue here. There's
been a couple of problems with Michigan rebounding late. Dusty
May address that lately, I should say, in recent games,
but they've got so much height and he still thinks
they're an elite rebounding team. So there's not a lot
to separate these two, I think. Again, I'll point out
and this goes both ways, right. I point out all
the time that rink mask and Nebraska has the ability
to pull opposing bigs away from the rim defensively because
they can shoot threes. Michigan also can do that to you.
So this is such an interesting matchup at him again.
The one thing I found that I think will be
a decisive factor is can Michigan push this game the
way they want to push it tempo wise for more
than half the game? Get that spurt that Dusty May
is talking about. Remember the beginning of the year when
he said to everybody who would listen, if we're making
shots were impossible to stop. And that was the way
it was in nonconference. They're still winning games, but like
we said, a few times, they win by double digits,
they don't cover here. They have to win again by
basically eleven points. Nebraska's shown us every reason to believe
they can hang within this number. If it's me and
I haven't played this game as of yet, but I
would say I would look a little more toward the
under in this contest. Money's pushed it to the over
to start the day right one fifty three and a
half up to one fifty six and a half. I
would almost tend to push back at that a little bit, again,
believing that Nebraska's ball handling can be good enough to
not get caught up for an entire forty minutes of
greyhound pace here. So maybe a little look toward the
under if it's side right now, you have to absolutely,
just from a betting perspective, look toward the Nebraska angle here.
That's the way I would see it, at least.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a really good conversation going on in the
chat about this game, so you know, I'll bring up
a couple of points the chat's going to make. So
you know, Sean brings up Nebraska has no size, and
that is there's an element of truth to that that
I think even maybe gets magnified by the fact that
Braden Frager may be out for this game. So Frader
did not play against Minnesota, and he is what would
would be considered some of the size for Nebraska right
six seven forward. Also a guy that shoots fifty three
point seven percent from the field twelve point two points
per game. You know, I think you could make a
case to be like man like, Nebraska really needs to
play almost to I don't know they need to play
a perfect game, rob but they need to shoot it
like insane I think to win this game. And so
taking Frager out of the lineup is going to be
tough for Nebraska to I think win without having him.
I know they have other options, but still I think
I think that hurts. Now, you can look at the
size argument and say, well, that's not like an overly
valid argument against Michigan because some of the teams they
struggled with don't have sides.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: TCU comes to mind where they just have these these
guards that are gonna like get up on you defensively
and cause trouble. And TCU had that game, Wake Forrest
did something similar. Granted those are back in November. You
go back to the one game Michigan lost, which was
the Wisconsin game. Wisconsin went fifteen for thirty three from
three in that game. Nebraska absolutely can do that. Like
I'll go as far as to say, if Nebraska comes
out and hits fifteen three tonight, they probably win. Like
they probably win this game. What makes it difficult to
bet this game is there's there's there's just so many
different outcomes based on like how volatile the three point
shot is, right, because like Nebraska does a pretty good
job defensively in the paint, which which is good against Michigan.
But Michigan can still shoot the basketball. So if Michigan's
just knocking down shots, this could get out of hand quickly.
If Nebraska Pols of Wisconsin goes fifteen for thirty ish
from three, how are they not in this game? They're
probably in this game, rob right, Like, so you're talking
about a spread of eleven, ten and a half eleven,
I think they're probably right in it if they have
that kind of shooting night, which we know that Nebraska
is very capable of. So this is a tough game
to bet. I lean toward Nebraska. I know I'm probably
not getting the right number because it's like, you know,
Michigan probably deserves to be favored as much as they are,
but with how I mean the other thing is too
Like I feel like Rink Mass and the way he
plays and sort of keeps this offense composed, Like do
you really want to bet against that? Do you really
want to lay ten and a half against that? I
lean Nebraska here to rob.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're just battle tested at this point in time.
But the Fraker point is a big deal at him
because he had scored twenty plus in the two games
previous to Minnesota. They got away with his absence against Minnesota.
Can you get away without having all of your and
I'm talking from an outright win perspective, not plus eleven here,
but can you get away with not having him and
walk into this building and win? And I also think
what's important to note here is it's weird to say,
but you're Nebraska. You're walking into Michigan's building, and you
have the bullseye on your chest. And Michigan is very,
very aware of what's going on with Nebraska. So if
Dusty may can rile up the troops, they should win
this game, whether or not they can win it by eleven.
Are they still overvalued? I think we're gonna find out
a little bit about that tonight. But they've certainly been
overpriced in conference. You have not made In fact, you
might as well just take your money and throw it
out the window. If you've been betting Michigan in league
play and the other side you just keep going back
to the window and picking up. So I think under
two Adam just something about this game at one fifty
six and a half because Hoiberg is a settling force
at point guard at price. Sandford the Xirawa play a
very very good three point shooter experience, So Nebraska's got
the components to kind of, you know, be unfazed here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't listen. I don't take hate taking some
shot with the Nebraska money line. And just like obviously
you're probably not gonna play a full unit on that
if you want action in this game, because the the
just how crazy the outcomes could be based on the
three point shot falling or not. I feel like it's
almost worth like you want to throw a few bucks
on Nebraska money line, go for it, because I feel
like there's worst bets for the price. There's worse bets
that you can make. Gonna be a tremendous watch either way.
And again, I don't think anyone if Michigan comes out
and wins by twenty, like, no one is surprised. And
if you if you subscribe to like history repeating itself
seven times, as has happened since two thousand, the double
digit underdog has not won a single one of them,
and the favorite has covered five out it seven, so
I think you can make cases both ways. Probably why
I'll just be watching it. Rob. You know, we got
anniversaries in the super Chat now, Garth Drake remember for
one month, I didn't know that. I've never seen this
program do that before. That's awesome, So shout out to Garth.
He comes in and brings it every day in the chat.
We very much appreciate that. We appreciate all you guys. Really,
I see a lot of the same people every day.
Mckinnis just texted me he said he's watching the show
told me to change the banner at the bottom of
the screen, So we appreciate him for that as well.
It should be now showing our package or one of
the packages. I don't have my show. I can't, I can't.
I can't read that.
Speaker 2: I can't read that because there a hockey promo going.
Speaker 1: Yeah you never yeah you know, you never know because
I think other people use the studio. So really, instead
of like rehashing the Lamoine game with you for ten
minutes before we get on the show, I should probably
be like adjusting the banners. But this is what happens. Garth,
this is an interesting game. Garth leans Arkansas. I lean
Arkansas too, and it's really like this will go back
to our conversation on last call the last couple of
weeks where Arkansas keeps coming up. I keep talking about
how I like them, and then they fail to cover
the number, which is what they did over the weekend
against LSU. Granted, if you go back to the middle
of the week last week they had arguably the well
not arguably, it was the win of their season, destroying Vanderbilt.
There's a very stark comparison Arkansas home, Arkansas on the
road that we've outlined on pretty much anyone that talks
college basketball has probably outlined at this point. It's been
going on for years. So Robino, now you've got Arkansas
on the road against an Oklahoma team that man like
it's I feel like they want to pack up and
go home for the season. After the weekend getting daggered
by your Missouri Tigers at the buzzer down to or
had a two point and Missoo nails a three to
win the game. Do I believe hand Oklahoma their sixth
straight loss. So now they're at home, Arkansas road. Do
you do you have any faith in the razorbacks here
or do you think the Sooner snap this losing streat.
Speaker 2: No Arkansas Road and the again these teams are not Oklahoma,
but lose by twenty two to Auburn on the road,
lose by fourteen to Georgia on the road. Georgia's probably
Oklahoma's probably comparable in talent to Georgia and pace and
style and all of those things. It was an absolute
heartbreaker for Oklahoma on Saturday in overtime against Missouri. Like
you say, Adam, they complete I believe Nigel Pack hits
a three, and then they go to the line and
they take a two point lead, and of all people,
Mark Mitchell just comes storming down the court and chucks
up a left handed three twenty seven percent shoot, not
necessarily his forte and from the time it left his
hand it was probably never in doubt that that ball
was going in lost for Oklahoma. You could see the
look on Porter Moser's face. You could see the look
on Oklahoma's face. So to your comment about they probably
just feel like packing up their bags and leaving, maybe so,
but I would consider this more a desperation spot for Oklahoma.
They can still score. There's still a pretty talented team,
there's still more than capable at home, and you're playing
a team that just has not responded on the road.
Game's gonna get up and down. So obviously somebody like
me wants to look immediately at the total. The total
is priced pretty high in this game. Let's go ahead
and get a current while we're talking about it. One
sixty six or one sixty six and a half as
we speak, probably in a good vicinity here, Arkansas's holding
at two and a half. I see a couple of
straight threes out there. I would tend to think that
this is Oklahoma's season in this part, and you shouldn't. Actually,
I should never say that in college basketball, because the tournament,
the SEC tournament, would be their season. But if you're
going to have a chance to make the NCAA tournament
at the end of the year, then you have to
have a high enough seeding inside the conference to be
able to pull off two three wins in the tourney
to get yourself invited. Right now, they're just they're an
NIT team at this point in time, so wins are
a definite must here. I just have a feeling that
Oklahoma will do the right thing here tonight and win
this game. But rather than take my shot there, I
would rather take my chance with this game total, which
again is one sixty six and a half. I just
when Arkansol's gone on the road, they've given up ninety
both times. So Arkansas probably good for eighty five. The
other side probably close to eighty five. Adds up mathematically
to being an over. That's the way I would look
at it if I wish I had a little bit
more faith in Oklahoma to just regroup the way I
think they're supposed to hear him play this as a
desperate spot, because if they did, this is just typical
college basketball, situational one on one. Oklahoma should win based
on spot. We'll see how it goes.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I Robin know this is an insane year for
freshmen in college basketball. I don't remember having this. I
mean in another year. Rob Darius Aycuff is getting all
the attention right. There are years where he would be
getting so much attention and it's almost like he's become
somewhat of an afterthought because of just like Peterson and
Boozer and the Band's done. It's like a Cuff's twenty
point two points per game. Big reason why when when
Brian Power and I went to the Arkansas Michigan State
game earlier this year, we left East Lansing and even
though Arkansas lost that game, we left saying, man, like this,
this Arkansas team is the team that we're gonna want
in February, in March, when when when coach Caliperry does
what he does and brings his teams along and has
him playing their best basketball at that time. I don't
think they're quite there yet. I think they absolutely could
get there. So you talked about the defense like Arkansas does,
like I feel like they they start just watching at times,
you know, defense gets a little lax, and then even
the offensive possessions like the Michigan State game. I'll go
back to that game because there was a couple of
possessions that were just straight up not good possessions down
the stretch in that game that costs that that ultimately
cost them the game. Losing a three point game on
the road this year. I just think on the road,
it's it's easier to like get distracted, get caught up
in the in the you know, opposing crowd make a mistake.
You talk about the loss at Georgia. Georgia had a
really good shooting day from three, but still a lot
of those threes were open. A lot of it was like,
you know, just kind of watching on defense and giving
up the open shot that allowed Georgia to score ninety
points and then just getting run out of the building
by Auburn. So like to me, like I was just
to go back to the original post Garth, I was
so close this morning to clicking that two and a
half in is my first play today, because I think
Arkansas is so much better than this Oklahoma team. I
think they're I think if they execute their offense, they
score at will here, which maybe speaks to Rob's you know,
sort of talking about the over but man, defensively, the
lapses that have occurred on the road are a little
bit concerning. Makes me think Oklahoma could score some points
as well. And Rob, you know, I just I have
a tough time betting against a home team that's lost
six games in a row. It's like, is this like
the spot where they just band together and finally get
that win in And would you be that surprised if
it comes at the expense of Arkansas, who's always been
worse on the road than they are at home. Those
are the thoughts kind of going through my head here.
So I do lean toward the over. It is a
big number. I lean toward the over. Man. I want
to take Arkansas so bad. If that shot didn't go in,
if that Missouri shot did not go in, I would
have already played Arkansas in this game. I would have
already played it. I still like the Razorbacks. I'm very
high on this team, and I'm going to continue to
watch this Arkansas team because coach Cala Perry, this is
this is the You give him a guy like a
Cuff and a team like this, this is the type
of team he's gonna win with in March. So, like,
I'm still high on the Razorbacks. I just don't know
if I can play him here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, since it's not quite it's a little Derek Rose esque, right,
Derek Rose with Memphis with cal Acuff's highlight package on
Saturday was insane. The thirty one that he scored in
that game. Just to put reemphasize your point about so
many good freshmen across the country, We'll see Oklahoma for
what it's worth it's about to make this final point.
Five of their last six games have totaled one sixty
six or better. That's right where the number sits right now.
Arkansas obviously the two road games they've played, I think
a one sixty four and a one even higher than
that in a one seventy. So potential overplay here, we'll say,
you know, and Oklahoma could react the exact opposite, Adam,
They could go home and just lay an egg here.
So it's a difficult game to bet, But I don't
think it's a difficult game to bet from a total standpoint.
Speaker 1: I love this comment because I think it's like a
low key like troll a little bit, but it's also hilarious.
And he said, here's one percent of a two hundred
dollars bank roll, because it's just one unit. If that
was referring to, you know, me explaining the difference between
four and five yesterday, that's really funny, Hugh, Hugh, Richard Bradshaw.
Either way, if you want us to talk one of
your games, drop it in there, let us know. I'll
grab that. But that I don't know. That made me laugh.
For five percent of that two hundred dollars bankroll. You
could get any play on the site today, Rob, because
it's five dollars Tuesday, So great day. Listen if you
do play a smaller bank role, and obviously you have
to wait way in the cost of each pick when
you're dealing with a you know, if you play a
smaller bankroll, it's the cost per pick is more of
a of a something you have to consider. Great way
to try that out. Five dollars Tuesday. Every play on
the site essentially is up for five bucks. And then
you've got Rob and I doing a three day all
access every college basketball play we make over the course
of three days. That's probably the way to go from
a cost standpoint, because with how many you play and
with the volume I'm going to have probably on a
day like this or tomorrow or Thursday, or basically any
day of the week. Now with three hundred and sixty
five Division one college basketball teams participating in the sport,
the per play cost is going to be very low.
So two options today, five dollars Tuesday, and then the
double the Rob help me out. What's the name of
it again.
Speaker 2: It's double the Firepower. I think college basketball Double the
Firepower and just to Heugh Richardson Bradshaw's point there very
quickly what he just laid out there, Adhaim. Aside from
being somewhat funny, it really does outline the discipline and
money management that you have to play with if you're
going to do this every single day in your life.
You know, a lot of people want to just come in,
make six hundred dollars on a ten dollars parlay, et cetera,
and go broke really quick. But for those who have
been in this thing for a long long time, they're
not playing huge, huge amounts of their bank roll on
individual games. So that actually was informative and funny at
the same time. Thanks for that comment.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a great comment. Like I said, if you
want a certain game, drop it in there. I will
do my best to get it in. Sometimes the non
starred stuff gets lost because we have so many comments,
but I'll keep an eye out for it. Paul Powell
coming through big. Thank you Paul for the donation to
the show. He somehow, he somehow got this to show
up in Missouri Colors. I think that's just what the
donation of that range shows up as. But that's awesome too.
We've got Missouri Tiger's colors on the screen. He wants
to talk Missouri Alabama. He likes the Tigers on the
money line plus five. I can't, I can't read it.
What is the current number for this game right now? Robino?
Missouri Alabama. We're staying in the SEC And oh okay,
he's saying first half and full game. I think because
this is I was gonna say, we are up to
a ten point some places, even eleven. Tonight Bama at
home against MISSOO. You know that Missouri. One thing they
have done they play up. They play up to their competition.
They played to their competition. So they might have gone.
They might have at home, allowed Oklahoma to cover and
pretty much win that game if not for a three
at the buzzer from like forty feet or however wherever
Mitchell pulled up and hit that from. But now they
go on the road to play Bama. Is this the
like the dichotomy here? You know, Missouri, they've played up
all year, they beat Florida, they win as a dog.
Do you like them as a double digit underdog here?
Speaker 2: Well, let's just speak from situational standpoint first, Right, situational
It's kind of that double combo where Alabama's off an
absolute miserable shooting performance from three, they go six of
twenty six twenty three percent, and lose on their home
floor to Tennessee the other day. Now you get a
second shot at home. You should in college basketball, you
expect a good team like this to bounce back. Missouri
comes off the humongous like we said, five times now
three pointed by Mitchell at the buzzer, and that's almost
with the travel spot. Now it's almost a letdown. So
you kind of get that combination, you know what I mean.
One the home team eager to get back out there again.
The other side kind of still I don't want to
say they're still celebrating the win, but they're off of
that huge winning now on the road. That combination generally
speaks to a situational play on the home team, which
would be Alabama. This Charles Bidiaco thing has become a
really big deal. Played Saturday, I think there's a court
injunction that's going to be decided this morning ten o'clock
Central time, whether or not he can play or not.
He was somewhat effective for Alabama in that game on Saturday.
Despite the loss, and I know that Natoates is looking
for hustle type players, which he referred to Vidioco is
doing very well on Saturday. Natoates has been a little
bit concerned with his team's rebounding and defense this year,
rightfully so. But man, they can score and Missouri's gonna
have to score. It's another battle of Tempa. We just
talked about one with Michigan Nebraska. Alabama is by far
and away in league play, the fastest paced team I
think like two plus possessions per game right now, and
Missou is dead last. Miszoo wants to walk it up.
Miszoo wants to, you know, kind of take things more pedestrian,
and I don't know that they're going to be able
to do that in this particular contest against what's probably
going to be a fired up Alabama team. It's a
lot of points. I don't know that the Missouri defense
is exactly built the way you stop Alabama. In other words,
I don't think they can crush Alabama on the boards,
which is something if you can, if you're a good
rebounding team, then Alabama generally will lose that battle significantly.
They've lost it significantly to Tennessee the other day. If
in fact, you have a pressure style group that can
get after the ball as it's being brought up by Bama,
you can get the flection, you can get steals, then
you're effective against Bama. They don't turn it over it all,
So you have to have that kind of group. Missouri
doesn't have it. They don't force a lot of turnovers.
There's some things in their style of defense that just
don't add up to success against a style of Alabama.
So I think it's kind of a tough matchup Formazoo.
I think the situation's tough Formazoo. So I want to
lay ten and a half to find out. That's always
the great equalizer, right, But I do think Alabama probably
comes out fired up here for this game, and we'll know,
I don't know an hour two hours whether or not
they're going to have an extra body on the floor
in Betioco. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I want to go back to that Alabama game from
Saturday for a minute, because I think it's worth pointing
out that Tennessee is the perfect Like I'm actually mad
at myself for missing this because Tennessee is the perfect
team to beat Alabama, right, like, what you need to
beat Alabama to beat this team, to go into Tuscaloosa
and beat this team. It is what Tennessee is a
great and elite rebounding team, right Like, Tennessee is a
fantastic They're one of the best rebounding teams in the country.
And they go out and they beat Bama on the
boards thirty six to twenty eight in that game. You
also need to probably not let Bama torch you from
three Bama six for twenty six in that game against Tennessee.
So you know, in hindsight, I'm mad at myself for
missing that because I've gotten to see Tennessee play in
person this year. You know, we talked Tennessee basketball a lot,
and I as that game was going, I was like, man,
this is this is just the matchup you want the
balls in catching points. It was the perfect situation. So
for me, just just based on the fact that like
I don't like being super reactive and Missouri is not
that I you know, nearly as ideal of a matchup
going against Bama as Tennessee was, I can't take the dog.
But that's more just me the way I think personally
It's like I almost look at that and say, you
missed your chance. You had your chance to do it
on Saturday. I do think there's some merit to Missouri
getting up for games like this, though, And that's where
I'm gonna like probably sort of like just duck out
of this one and move on to another game. Not
make a case for laying eleven because we've now seen
it multiple times this season. Missouri against the big teams
on their schedule, they always seems like they bring their
best effort. So do you want to lay eleven against them?
To me, I don't really want to do that either,
So I know the original post kind of wanted to
side with the dog. I do think the number is
definitely big. Maybe it's big for a reason. I guess
we'll find out. I just I don't have much there
on that one.
Speaker 2: Rob Vino, Yeah, like I say, I agree totally. Laying
out the matchup, Massoo's defense just isn't exactly what stops Alabama.
And then, to my surprise, Adam, when I was looking
at this game last night, Alabama owns the number one
two point field goal percentage defense or excuse me, the
effective field goal percentage defense in that league. They're number
two defending the twos and Miszoo is not a great
shooting three point team by any stretch, right, And in fact,
when they go on the road, they're like thirty one percent.
So if Jacob Cruz and those guys in Stone they're
not nailing threes, which they're not known to do, especially
on the road this season in conference play, then this
could get out of hand for them quite quickly. And
something else I'll just point out here, like I said
about Nebraska, where I thought that they have enough point
guard leadership, that they have enough veteran experience on the
floor to maybe stay calm and keep the game somewhat
the way they want to play it. I think Missouri
has shown at times that they can get caught up
in pace, and when you get caught up in pace
with Alabama, you could get them out of the gym quickly.
What was the word, Dusty Mayu's spurt ability? Bama hasn't.
They can certainly shoot it. So I just don't like
the matchup for Maszoo from a fundamental standpoint.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and going back, there was I don't remember who
it was, but someone in the chat asked about letdown
like Yeah, like Missouri winning in that fashion certainly probably
created a bit of a letdown spot here for them
on the road. Yeah, we'll be an interesting to see.
It will be interesting to see how that one plays out, Joseph,
He says Trigg, I can't find your five dollars pick.
That's because there isn't one yet. I have not bet
anything yet. This is the type of day, Rob where
if I wanted to, I could probably have bet seven
things already, and I haven't because I just I'm finding
myself maybe wanting to push back at the market a
little bit more in certain spots. So I'm kinda kind
of let the dust settle over the next hour. I
promise you, Joseph, I will have at least one play,
probably more than one.
Speaker 2: This post is great, he says. I'm in class right now,
so I have this on you can someone please respond
to the check. Shout out to you, Joseph for listening
to us during class time. That's fantastic. I'm glad you
have one available for you. That's great.
Speaker 1: At least he hey, at least he went he went
to class. That's that's good.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's true.
Speaker 1: That is that's good. Stuff, and yeah, we will. It'll
be up probably an hour or two, but within an
hour after the show, I'm gonna play like that's the thing.
I'm probably gonna have three four, you know, three or
four plays on a slate like this if if if
I decide on one within the next twenty three minutes,
I'll just give it out to you on on air.
I'm gonna go to Garth here because this is what
I am considering, and I will I will see if
Rob Veno can can talk me either into or off
of what I made what I may do here. But
I'm gonna let Rob kick this off because Garth's question
is team total related. He likes the George Washington team
total under seventy eight and a half. Admittedly, Rob, that
was not really the angle I would or that was
not the angle I was looking at in this game
was an under. But if it's an over, it's probably
Saint Louis doing most of the scoring. So kick us off,
gar for Garth, Saint Louis, George Washington talk about the
team total for.
Speaker 2: Me, Yeah, I'll say this, Garth. I mean, it's kind
of the angle I looked at last night. I really
and this is hard for me to say a lot
of times you hear over out of my mouth a ton.
But I looked at this full game going under one
sixty eight was the number I saw last night. I'm
looking now, we see one sixty seven and a half.
It's come down about half the point. But I think
I predicated that on what I've what I'm seeing out
of Saint Louis's defense against this conference. Not only are
they spectacular offensively. I think I was texting with you
the other night, Trig, and I said, you know, you
look at this team. They would probably finished second in
the Big East to Connecticut. If not surpassed Connecticut, Saint
Louis would, they would win the Mountain West, et cetera,
et cetera. They're way too good for what this league
has to offer. From that perspective, I truly think that
their defense is a factor in this game, but I
applied it more to full game total than team total.
And I can't argue you off of gw under because
my case is based on the way Saint Louis has
played defense. They would have to probably get to my
guess is probably ninety ninety four or something to get
this thing over, So that would put GW at about
seventy four, which makes your number look pretty good though
at the angle you're looking at. But I'm pretty much
in line with you in thinking that this game's going
to stay under. I think Saint Louis at home, knowing
GW is a big game, will come out defensively, and
if they're up by a bunch at the end. This
is interesting too, Adam, because I find here that Shirts
hasn't been a guy to let off the gas pedal,
which is interesting. You know, like, if he's up by
twenty two with two minutes left, is he just gonna
Saint Louis probably keeps scoring, which makes the under dangerous.
But I just think it's placed too high right now.
There's been a couple of games I was on the
wrong side of one, a Saint Louis full game over.
I think it was two games back. I could probably
try and go look it up now real quick, but
I missed the over by about a point and a
half because the odds makers had it just high enough
in the one sixties. It was a high scoring game,
just wasn't good enough to get there. That's kind of
the way I feel about this maybe something that lands
in the one sixty two to one sixty three range,
and we're staring at one sixty seven and a half here.
Can't argue you off, Guarth, just giving you my ideas
on the game last night, where I thought full game
total was worth a shot.
Speaker 1: Man, I so badly want to make a case for
George Washington here. But the just Saint Louis is a
kind of what you were saying. I had a bunch
of buddies go. I had a group of friends go
to the Saint bonham Enture game on Friday, and they
left very disappointed, and they left very early. They were
at the bar by halftime. They were not happy about
how I mean, that was just as. I don't know
how much of that was this just being like a
bad Saint Bonaventure team, a worse team than people expected,
But I mean, Saint Louis, I don't think you can
play a better first half than they played in that game.
I think they were up. I know it was thirty
seven to thirteen at one point, it was something like
thirty at halftime. I mean it was just as. And
that was in front of a packed house in only
a national TV game, and that was as quick and
efficient of a dissection. Like I mean, it was over
before it even started. And that is my fear, like
fading this team at home. How efficient their offense is?
Is that now, Garth, does that maybe help your team
total under? Yeah, like if this is out of hand,
I think if this gets out of hand, that helps
you're under for a team total because you're not gonna
have all sorts of extension at the end of the game.
But like my gut says, George Washington can be competitive here.
I really like Raphael Castro. I feel like, going off
of memory, he had a good game against Saint Louis
and a good game against Avilla last year. I bet
quite a few GW games last year. I want to
say the Saint Louis one was one of them, and
he had a good game. I could be thinking to
George Mason, I can't remember off the top of my head,
but I mean he's he is more athletic again than
a Vila. He can absolutely score on him, like they've
got the interior I think to do some damage. The
problem is for me, the problem is how efficient is
Saint Louis's offense is going to be here? Because if
they do anything like they did to Saint Bonaventure, they
could be up fifteen very quickly. And I just go
back to kind of what you were saying, maybe a
couple of weeks ago, of like you know, maybe people
not even realizing how good this Saint Louis team is.
And then I look and him like, do I you know,
do I want to like poke the bear on the road,
especially when like it's now known, it's now known that
you can go zone on GW and really cause them issues.
I don't know if Saint Louis really has that in
their bag, rob but like teams have pretty much figured
out that you can play a zone against GW and
they are gonna have a tough time scoring. So those
are the types of things that I think have talked
me off. But man, if this h I see pennies
at ten, if this got back to like ten and
a half, I don't know. I may I may be
taking the points and just hoping that George Washington could
be efficient enough on their offense on the offensive end,
which I think they can be through Castro to hang
around in this game, Robino, do you if you don't
have anything to add there, I'm gonna go to you
to see if you want to start the parlayoff.
Speaker 2: I'm trying to make a decision as we speak, So
give me. I've got a couple of games here. I
don't know which one I want to release here as
our half of the parlays. So I'll skip for a
couple of minutes and then come back to it if
we have another game.
Speaker 1: We have time, We have time. I'm gonna go to Well,
there's a game we absolutely have to talk about. A
couple people have already sort of brought this up in
the chat, but we got to talk Miami of Ohio.
They are still undefeated. This has been I think flexed
to a nine pm national TV start. I believe this
is on ESPN you nine pm Eastern of course.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 1: You know, I've had my opinions on UMass and you
know the direction that that program has gone since Frank
Aren't took over. I thought it would have been much better.
I thought they would have been more competitive in the MAC.
It's it's interesting because you Mass does have the components
of a team that, like I think should be a
lot better in this league. We saw that a little
bit on Friday. They went on the road and won
at Buffalo like they're a capable team, Rob And Miami
of Ohio has been in some games recently with capable
teams in this league. But man, I don't know if
you mask can get enough stops here. And that's that's
where my concern is, is, uh, Miami of Ohio spreads
them out and suddenly they're scoring at will you masked?
Miami of Ohio? This has got to be a sellout
right twenty and oh, you're at home? Should be a
great atmosphere. What do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I mean you get a TV audience. I
can just recall the going to the first ever ESPN
like flexed game at Belmont where they were on TV
against Ohio U. And Belmont doesn't sell out, but that
place was packed that night for the cameras. So certainly
Miami of Ohio with the situation they have going on
here undefeated season. I laughed as soon as you said
we have to talk about this game because it was
one of the three I was looking to choose from.
So why don't I just go ahead and use this
as a parlay leg here. I don't believe whether they
cover the number or not, sort of irrelevant to me
in this game, but I just don't believe that UMass
with their style and the pace they want to play,
which is third fastest so far in MATT competition while
Miami of Ohio is number one, I just don't believe
that Massachusetts can hold Miami of Ohio under their team
total here of eighty six and a half. Miami O
is so efficient offensively and when you're gonna get the
opponent to go in that style with you, and a
lot of my analysis on these totals, Adam, when I
go team total are simply match up based and they
sound kind of the same, but it's a system that
pretty much works. When you're betting totals over, you need opportunities,
you need extra chances to score, and that's what you
mass provides here for Miamio in this particular game, because
they want to go fast. It's what they do best.
Frank Martin is hardheaded. Frank Martin's not going to change
for Miamio. He's going to go in there and try
and beat them, kind of a man's man type of thing.
But they are a team that turns it over. They're
so turnover prone as well. You mass that in this
particular game, I just don't Miamio has been getting this
number on everybody really doesn't matter. And now to give
them the style component that they prefer in an opponent,
to give them a team that will coft the ball
up where they can get cheaper points, I just don't
see a reason why you wouldn't bet Miami's team. Told her,
I actually thought it was going to be about eighty
nine and a half and I was going to have
to get to ninety, which I still might have even considered.
But eighty six and a half to me just seems
to be too low for those who are interested. The
other game I was looking at was the Michigan State
team total over against Rutgers, who has just turned into
a defensive nightmare. But the only reason why I'd give
you Miami Ohio here in this game instead is because
MSU has Michigan on deck Friday, and I just don't
know where their heads will be at against Rutgers. So
give me for the parlay leg Adam, give me Miami
of Ohio team total up and over eighty six and
a half in this one.
Speaker 1: I kind of love that, Rob, as you're talking and
I'm thinking, like you just made a point about potential
look ahead in a different game, Miami of Ohio's had
a week to figure out U Mass's defense, whichhouldn't be
that hard to figure out this team. Like the thing
with U Mass is they do have some odviginal individual skill.
If they can make this into like a very like
Qunky type game, then they're gonna have a they could
hang around and potentially cover that number. They really have
to make this an ugly game, though, to do that,
in my opinion, and I just don't think you can
do that on the road against the Miami of Ohio
team that is as good at spacing the floor as
as any team at this level in the country. Listen,
you could talk me into okay, well, you put them
against Power five teams and it's changes a little bit fine,
But at the mid to low major level, there is
no team better than Miami of Ohio at spacing you
out getting the shot that they want. That should be
a nightmare for UMSS. And then you talk about the
home crowd behind you. We've talked about UMass and some
of their issues on the road this year. They're going
to be going into an environment that I don't think
they've really seen, though there was a good turnout in
Buffalo on Friday night for that game, which they did win.
But let's not act like Buffalo and Miami of Ohio
or even remotely close to the same thing. And then
to talk, you know, you talk about a look ahead spot. Well,
there's no look ahead for Miami of Ohio because they're
playing one of the worst teams in the league next
time out, which I believe is a home game against
Illinois or Northern Illinois, who's one of the worst teams
in this league. So there's really no look ahead. So
this should be a fully focused Miami team. Miami's not
preparing for Northern Illinois'll tell you that much. They can
win that game in their sleep. For the last week,
they have been figuring out how to dissect UMass and
that's not that hard to do. We've seen other teams
do it. So yeah, I'm with you there. I like that.
I didn't really want to lay the ten, but I
think just asking them to get to ninety, which they
seem to do anyway no matter what who they're playing,
makes a lot of sense.
Speaker 2: It's a good call, seem for a minute, like my
dog liked to play too. He started going crazy.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's hard to find any reason to
disagree with that.
Speaker 2: Rob.
Speaker 1: I think you got a I think you have a
good angle there. I'm going to go back to the
chat real quick because I'm gonna, I guess I'm gonna
spend the next few minutes deciding if I just want
to fire Arkansas money line in there. So let's get
another Let's get to another game. Let's see, let's go
Kentucky Vandy because I kind of had some thoughts on
this one too, so I want to keep looking through
the chat, and I'm going to think about this with Rob.
Kick us off Kentucky Vanderbilt. I just getted. I don't
know if I can see Kentucky winning another game here.
The question is can they cover or not?
Speaker 2: Yeah. I was pretty bullish on Bandy on Saturday. They
had come off of three straight losses. They got an
opponent that they could handle, and they went to work
right away off. You know, their offense had failed them
for a couple of the three games in the three
game losing streak, their defense really failed them. It was
one of those things you're in the SEC you're going
to go through that type of streak. You're walking into
these buildings with a fifteen and oh or a six
teen and o resume in that league, you're gonna lose somewhere.
And for Vandy, you know it had a domino effect.
But on Saturday they were right back to being You
talk about Saint Louis getting out of the gate quick
against Saint Bonnie, like forty two to nineteen right off
the bat. Vanderbilt was the same way on Saturday, right
out of the shoot. You knew weren't going to have
any trouble. I happen to have their team total in
that game. It had been lowered by their standards, I
would say, lowered to like eighty one and a half.
Wound up getting there rather easily. I didn't have to
sweat that one too much. And here against Kentucky, I
just have a real problem with Kentucky, Adam, because the
same exact problem keeps coming up with UK. I think
five games into the season we talked about, or maybe
a little deeper six or seven, but we talked about
the quote from Mark Pope where we went crazy after
the game saying that he'll fix this. There's too many
people playing for their own name rather than the name
on the jersey. He'll weed it out, we'll get it right.
It was fine for a couple of games, then it
reared its ugly head again and he went on another ramp,
and it just has never seemed to be right. Whatever
the cohesion problems are with Kentucky, this mix, this team
just hasn't worked yet. It's not to say it can't.
The month of February does strange things to teams. I've seen,
you know, Yukon with Kemba Walker be a lousy team
and go on a five game Big East run and
then go win a national title. It can happen, but
I don't know that they're in a good spot right
now to play Vanderbilt, which is so good offensively, too
many weapons. I know that Mark Byington had said something
that we had said here on the show that they
were a little bit depth shy during that three game
losing Street because of Frankie Collins injury. But they seem
to overcome and now they get back home to Memorial Gym.
I thought the number was a little light at six
and a half. There are some outlets that have gone
to seven now and I see a seven and a
half even I could definitely endorse slaying six and a
half if you could still find it, And I know
there's a couple of very very popular spots that still
have that number hanging six and a half. At some
point in this game, Vanderbilt's offense is going to be
too much for Kentucky to handle it, in my opinion,
whether or not UK can get it up. Never mind
the comment about six and a half, because now I
see red flashes all across the screen almost seven and
a half, almost universally. Now you can still find some sevens,
but I do agree with that this total has been
moved up to one fifty nine and a half. Kentucky
not a lot on the defensive end so far this season.
So for me, Adam, I would probably lean Vanderbilt at
home in this price range. And I just want to
take a look really quick here at what the current
team total is bumped up to. It looks like eighty
three and a half at this point. I probably wouldn't
play it over, but I think that's in the vicinity
where they'll land somewhere between eighty one and eighty five.
So my best advice here would be a small shot
with Vanderbilt minus the number here against Kentucky.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the way I was looking in this one.
I wonder if that spike now is people thinking that
Duke Miles will will definitely play. I did I read
something that he was like questionable for this game. Obviously
that would be a notable right because Frankie Collins hasn't
played in a while, so you know, if you if
you were to lose him, that's not ideal. But would
it even really matter against Kentucky? Like I look at
this Kentucky five game win streak, and I'm just like, Okay,
the Mississippi schools at this point are just you can
just throw those out. They're awful. But both of those
Mississippi teams, all miss in Mississippi State are atrocious. So
you got two wins right there. LSU had really had
no business winning that game. Took a took a Christian
Latner full court pass come back to win that game Tennessee.
I still admittedly was watching like six other games during
that window. That was a Saturday early tip. I still
can't couldn't believe my eyes when like I look up,
I didn't have it on the main screen and it's
a final and there's people fighting in Kentucky one. I
was like, wait a minute, what, how did that even happen?
Right like they were I believe that was a twenty
point eighteen point episode in the first half I hit
with Texas against Kentucky last week. Texas loses that game,
but I noted this on Saturday when I came back
and played Texas again and had that right again that like, man,
Texas goes two for eighteen from three. If they shoot
if and some of those were open shots, Like, if
they shoot the ball even like a little bit better,
Texas probably wins that game. So I think this is
where it finally comes to an end for Kentucky. And
I'm pretty confident in saying that if you can get
seven or better that you're you're probably gonna be okay,
You'll probably cash that ticket. The question now is Rob,
who do I like better, Vandy or Arkansas. That's That's
what I'm sitting here trying to figure out because I'm
gonna use one of those two in the parlay. And
you know what, I think, I'm gonna go Arkansas. I
got I got Garth likes Arkansas. Colin Gregory likes Arkansas.
We got swizz here, he says, give me Arkansas minus
two and a half. Bayous over here saying Vandy, Yeah,
I I you know what I'm gonna do. I'm gonna
do it with Arkansas. That is gonna be my parlay
leg I just think the matchup is too good for them,
and I've been I've been too pro Arkansas. I've been
too pro Arkansas all year to to like not sort
of take them at this number in this spot. I
think that team's only gonna get better. We got like
three minutes left. Should we try to was there anything
else that you just had a thought on today? Should
we should we try to squeeze?
Speaker 2: Like?
Speaker 1: Was there anything else you wanted to bring? There's a
lot of games. I know I've got like a lot
more work to do, but I didn't know if you
had anything that you wanted to just kind of fire
off here before we recap.
Speaker 2: Yeah, just in rapid because we have, you know, two
minutes here, rapid fire type deal. I thought the New
Mexico UNLV game, last game on the board is going
to be I don't thought it. I think that it's
going to be a very interesting game. I think UNLV
as a home dog is live here adam New Mexico
obviously not the same outside the pit, but even further
than that, I just don't know that there's a ton
of separation inside the MAC this year. We've noted plenty
of times that it's not Richard Patino's style team. However,
Eric Olin has done a really good job with this
New Mexico team, there's no question about it. But since
UNLV's gotten healthy the virus out of their locker room,
they've been better too. And I think they match up
pretty well with New Mexico. So plus five in this
game to me, with the home dog seemed like a lot.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's actually one I'm looking at as well. Well.
That may actually make my client card. I wanted to
see what the betting did with that. I wanted to
dig into it a little bit more. But just like
U and LV kind of laid an egg over the weekend,
I thought that they were potentially live in that spot
against San Diego State roughly the same size underdog that
they were over the weekend. I think four and a
half five at least where it opened. That might be
a signal that you and LV may take money at
some point today because I think that got as low
as like two and a half three. They were always
second best to the Aztecs in that game. That being said,
I think New Mexico maybe a little bit more forgiving
than San Diego State. I think they've played really well,
but not so many of these games have been tough
road environments. Not that Thomas and Mack is tough road environment.
It's not got people of Vegas got to get out
and support that team. There's too much stuff to do
in Vegas. Rob now, that's why they get five thousand
fans a game. They just don't get the fans like
they used to, which sucks. But yeah, I lean toward
the ReBs there too.
Speaker 2: They got anything else for us under the wire here.
Speaker 1: No, we're gonna recap the parlay. I know some there's
some people that are thrilled, there's some people that are
upset about it. I'm gonna go Arkansas. I'm gonna lay
the two and a half. I just again, I think
they match up extremely well with Oklahoma. I think Oklahoma
might be dead and buried after that that dagger from Missouri,
and so I'll take the road Razorbacks minus two and
a half for my leg of the parlay, Rob Bino
is going Miami Ohio team total over eighty six and
a half. That's your standard like plus two sixty two teamer,
which will bring us close. We after yesterday's win, we're
minus three point one eight units on the parlay this year,
so if we can hit this one tonight, we'll be
back dangerously close to even. Maybe we'll fire a three
teamer up, but I think we stick the two team
route as long as we're cashing some of these which
we have the last couple of days. Check out our
fire double the CBB Fireboer package. It's it's all of
my plays, all of Rob's plays for any three day span,
and of course it's five dollars Tuesday at wager Talk.
We'll see you guys back here in the morning for
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