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There's no 28 00:00:58.600 --> 00:01:17.799 safe like simply Safe. 29 00:01:22.000 --> 00:01:24.159 Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm John Faber, I'm John 30 00:01:24.159 --> 00:01:24.359 love It. 31 00:01:24.439 --> 00:01:25.159 I'm Tommy Detour. 32 00:01:25.319 --> 00:01:27.959 On today's show, Trump says the ceasefire with Iran is 33 00:01:28.000 --> 00:01:30.719 on quote life support. We'll talk about why and what 34 00:01:30.799 --> 00:01:33.000 comes next is he heads off to China. We'll also 35 00:01:33.040 --> 00:01:35.159 talk about his new plan to make Venezuela our fifty 36 00:01:35.239 --> 00:01:35.760 first state. 37 00:01:36.799 --> 00:01:38.200 It's a perfect plan, perfect plan. 38 00:01:38.239 --> 00:01:40.480 The followup from the Virginia Supreme Court's decision to throw 39 00:01:40.480 --> 00:01:43.519 out the Democrats, New Maps, AOC taking on Jeff Bezos 40 00:01:43.560 --> 00:01:45.560 and what she might run for in twenty twenty eight, 41 00:01:45.680 --> 00:01:49.359 and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy and his wife Rachel Campos 42 00:01:49.400 --> 00:01:52.640 Duffy getting back to their roots with a new reality 43 00:01:52.640 --> 00:01:53.439 television show. 44 00:01:53.599 --> 00:01:54.680 Yeah excited. 45 00:01:54.840 --> 00:01:55.079 Great. 46 00:01:56.959 --> 00:01:58.879 A quick note before we start. If you're a friend 47 00:01:58.879 --> 00:02:02.159 of the Pod subscriber, which if you aren't you should be. 48 00:02:02.840 --> 00:02:05.560 You can now buy tickets for this year's Crookeet Con 49 00:02:06.519 --> 00:02:10.639 special pre sale just for subscribers, just happening for you 50 00:02:10.759 --> 00:02:13.439 May twelfth, that is today when you're listening. But if 51 00:02:13.479 --> 00:02:17.719 you're not a subscriber because you hate pro democracy independent 52 00:02:17.759 --> 00:02:21.080 media and you love listening to podcast ads, you can 53 00:02:21.120 --> 00:02:22.719 still buy Cricket cont tickets, but you're gonna have to 54 00:02:22.719 --> 00:02:24.719 wait till next week. Starting on May nineteen. 55 00:02:24.800 --> 00:02:26.120 You might get a job at CBS. 56 00:02:26.439 --> 00:02:28.360 You might get a job at CBS. You might get 57 00:02:28.400 --> 00:02:31.520 to someday interview bb net Yah, sir. 58 00:02:31.360 --> 00:02:32.199 Why are you so great? 59 00:02:32.400 --> 00:02:33.840 Yeah, that's the only leadership. 60 00:02:34.199 --> 00:02:36.599 There's definitely a limited range of questions you can ask 61 00:02:36.680 --> 00:02:39.599 net Yahoo if you get the job at CBS, versus 62 00:02:39.599 --> 00:02:42.080 if you interview him here at pat America, which I 63 00:02:42.080 --> 00:02:43.560 don't think is going to happen anytime soon. 64 00:02:44.039 --> 00:02:45.039 Rhodes has gotten asking. 65 00:02:45.719 --> 00:02:47.439 I think we will be gett nan Yahoo before after 66 00:02:47.479 --> 00:02:48.000 we get Biden. 67 00:02:51.280 --> 00:02:54.319 Maybe actually a real question anyway. 68 00:02:54.719 --> 00:02:56.479 Either way, Cricket Con is going to be a big 69 00:02:56.479 --> 00:03:00.240 fun party right after the midterms November fifth through. Even 70 00:03:00.719 --> 00:03:02.479 Dan yelled at me for saying big fun party because 71 00:03:02.479 --> 00:03:04.240 he thought that was like jinxing in the midterms. I'm like, 72 00:03:04.280 --> 00:03:05.840 it's still gonna be a big, fun party. Even if 73 00:03:05.840 --> 00:03:08.400 we we're gonna still have a party, We're still gonna live. 74 00:03:08.800 --> 00:03:12.080 Yeah, I mean, you know what choice do we have, Galloys? 75 00:03:12.159 --> 00:03:14.919 Humor is still humor June and twenty seventeen, I did, 76 00:03:15.439 --> 00:03:17.400 I don't, and we don't. And when Trump won, and 77 00:03:17.400 --> 00:03:19.439 when Trump won, I remember telling Emily there might not 78 00:03:19.439 --> 00:03:21.639 be a wedding now yeah, and. 79 00:03:21.599 --> 00:03:31.319 She's like, on related reasons, that didn't. 80 00:03:30.319 --> 00:03:31.000 Take you in through that. 81 00:03:33.639 --> 00:03:34.360 Don't worry about that. 82 00:03:35.639 --> 00:03:41.000 Don't put this under a comment of Emily's Instagram. 83 00:03:41.120 --> 00:03:44.639 You know someone's gonna to send this to her. I 84 00:03:44.680 --> 00:03:46.840 hate it's going to turn up at your wedding, because 85 00:03:46.919 --> 00:03:50.000 it's going to turn up anyway. You should go subscribe 86 00:03:50.039 --> 00:03:51.800 what are we talking about? Become a friend of the pot, 87 00:03:51.800 --> 00:03:55.199 subscriber no ads for any of your favorite podcasts or cricket, 88 00:03:55.280 --> 00:03:56.879 and you get to support Crooked Media, and you get 89 00:03:56.879 --> 00:04:00.199 subscriber only shows, and you get all of our substack newsletters. 90 00:04:00.439 --> 00:04:02.360 And by the way, you can start buying a ticket 91 00:04:02.479 --> 00:04:04.919 for Kricketcon right now. They're going fast. 92 00:04:05.159 --> 00:04:05.599 Go get it. 93 00:04:05.639 --> 00:04:08.680 November fifth through seventh, Washington, DC. It's Cricketcon dot com 94 00:04:08.759 --> 00:04:10.919 and you can become a subscriber at Kirk dot COM's 95 00:04:10.919 --> 00:04:13.879 list friends. All Right, it appears that last week's siren 96 00:04:13.919 --> 00:04:16.160 emojis about the US and Iran closing in on a 97 00:04:16.199 --> 00:04:18.680 one page memo to end the war have given way 98 00:04:18.720 --> 00:04:21.879 to this week's siren emojis about Trump possibly resuming military 99 00:04:21.920 --> 00:04:26.000 action in Iran. Live by the siren emoji, Die by 100 00:04:26.000 --> 00:04:26.800 the siren emoji. 101 00:04:26.839 --> 00:04:28.480 We're talking about reporters. 102 00:04:28.920 --> 00:04:31.160 I mean that's that's who usually gets them. Well, actually 103 00:04:31.279 --> 00:04:34.600 no reporters do now. Also just random influencers and accounts, 104 00:04:34.600 --> 00:04:37.480 but any accurate information whatsoever. 105 00:04:37.199 --> 00:04:38.720 It lends a much credibility. 106 00:04:38.959 --> 00:04:39.360 It does. 107 00:04:39.560 --> 00:04:41.879 It starts with judge, the sirens started Judge, isn't true, 108 00:04:41.879 --> 00:04:43.560 the siren doesn't make sense as a news break. 109 00:04:43.680 --> 00:04:45.000 Then reporters started doing it. 110 00:04:45.079 --> 00:04:48.439 And then just random influencer just you know, trying to 111 00:04:48.600 --> 00:04:51.279 gather information that's not in any way that just shows 112 00:04:51.319 --> 00:04:54.040 up in your four U algorithm, like Joey Bloomberg. 113 00:04:55.279 --> 00:04:58.920 Bloomberg is reporting it. 114 00:04:58.920 --> 00:05:01.600 It is all caps anyway. Anyway. 115 00:05:02.079 --> 00:05:04.600 All of this comes after Trump rejected Iran's response to 116 00:05:04.639 --> 00:05:08.240 the one page memo they kept telling it was one page. 117 00:05:09.079 --> 00:05:13.399 Get all on one page, anyway, rejected, which Iran waited 118 00:05:13.399 --> 00:05:16.959 ten days to send and included demands for US reparations 119 00:05:17.079 --> 00:05:19.759 and permanent Iranian control over the Strait of hor Moves. 120 00:05:20.199 --> 00:05:25.199 Trump called that quote totally unacceptable and inappropriate, before elaborating 121 00:05:25.240 --> 00:05:28.399 on his initial reaction in the Oval on Monday. 122 00:05:28.199 --> 00:05:31.839 I would say the ceasefire is on massive life support, 123 00:05:32.279 --> 00:05:36.480 where the doctor walks in and says, sir, your loved 124 00:05:36.519 --> 00:05:40.639 one has approximately a one percent chance of living. 125 00:05:41.279 --> 00:05:45.959 It's unbelievably weak. We say, I would call it the 126 00:05:46.000 --> 00:05:50.680 weakest right now after reading a piece of garbage, said 127 00:05:51.120 --> 00:05:53.879 I didn't even finish reading it. It was just unaccepted. 128 00:05:54.959 --> 00:05:57.839 You know a lot of people said, well, does you 129 00:05:57.839 --> 00:05:59.560 have a plan. You have to say to him, I'm 130 00:05:59.600 --> 00:05:59.879 the best. 131 00:06:00.680 --> 00:06:03.000 I have a plan. You know, it's a very simple plan. 132 00:06:03.079 --> 00:06:05.439 I don't know why you don't say it like it is. 133 00:06:05.519 --> 00:06:09.240 Iran cannot have a nuclear We to allow the removal 134 00:06:09.319 --> 00:06:12.560 all the enriched young Well, they did it two days ago. 135 00:06:13.000 --> 00:06:13.560 They didn't. 136 00:06:14.279 --> 00:06:17.920 Okay, they did two days ago. They say you're going 137 00:06:17.959 --> 00:06:18.680 to have to take it. 138 00:06:18.759 --> 00:06:21.399 We were going to go with them, But they changed 139 00:06:21.399 --> 00:06:22.959 your mind because they didn't put it at the pay 140 00:06:23.279 --> 00:06:24.079 I've had to deal. 141 00:06:23.879 --> 00:06:24.879 With them four or five times. 142 00:06:24.959 --> 00:06:25.879 They changed your mind. 143 00:06:26.720 --> 00:06:28.240 They're very dis honorable people. 144 00:06:28.480 --> 00:06:30.639 The leadership exhausting. 145 00:06:30.720 --> 00:06:31.560 Who would have thunk it. 146 00:06:32.040 --> 00:06:34.240 He's learning a lot of lessons over and over and 147 00:06:34.279 --> 00:06:35.879 over again, maybe not learning. 148 00:06:35.879 --> 00:06:37.600 It drives me crazy when he says I have a 149 00:06:37.600 --> 00:06:39.279 plan Iron cannot have a nuclear weapon. 150 00:06:39.360 --> 00:06:40.040 No, that's a goal. 151 00:06:40.319 --> 00:06:41.399 Yeah that's what you want. 152 00:06:41.480 --> 00:06:41.959 What a plan? 153 00:06:42.040 --> 00:06:43.879 The plan is how you get to that? Yeah? 154 00:06:43.959 --> 00:06:45.000 Right, that's a destination. 155 00:06:45.560 --> 00:06:47.600 You need, You need a root, you need a journey. 156 00:06:47.680 --> 00:06:49.759 So far as we start week eleven of the war, 157 00:06:49.839 --> 00:06:52.560 doesn't seem like that plan is bearing fruit. 158 00:06:52.639 --> 00:06:54.639 It's also funny that he didn't read the whole one 159 00:06:54.639 --> 00:06:55.160 page of Momo. 160 00:06:55.319 --> 00:06:57.560 Yeah finish well, Yeah, get to the bottom of the thing. 161 00:06:57.560 --> 00:06:59.439 Maybe there's some good stuff through some pictures. 162 00:06:59.759 --> 00:07:02.600 Yeah, Tommy, why do you think the layst deal fell apart? 163 00:07:02.800 --> 00:07:05.279 And what are the options does Trump have at this point? 164 00:07:05.360 --> 00:07:08.720 I mean it just all the details weren't public, But 165 00:07:08.759 --> 00:07:10.639 I think that the US sent over a bunch of 166 00:07:10.639 --> 00:07:13.560 hardline nuclear demands in the Iranians were like, nah, we 167 00:07:13.639 --> 00:07:15.720 just want you to stop blockading, the straight o'h her 168 00:07:15.800 --> 00:07:17.959 moves and give us all this shit and that's our take. 169 00:07:18.000 --> 00:07:21.160 And so now we're back. So all the options are bad. 170 00:07:21.199 --> 00:07:24.160 I mean, he can restart the war, which is extremely 171 00:07:24.240 --> 00:07:28.000 unlikely to lead to regime change, but we'll certainly lead 172 00:07:28.000 --> 00:07:30.399 to economic chaos in the region. He can keep the 173 00:07:30.399 --> 00:07:33.079 blockade going and hope that the economic pain breaks the 174 00:07:33.079 --> 00:07:35.399 Iranian regime before breaks the global economy. 175 00:07:35.879 --> 00:07:37.519 I don't think that's going to work either. 176 00:07:37.639 --> 00:07:40.279 And then he can find a way to declare victory 177 00:07:40.319 --> 00:07:43.560 and slink away, which seems like the most likely option, 178 00:07:43.600 --> 00:07:45.519 but Aron will probably control the straight oh horor moves 179 00:07:45.279 --> 00:07:46.079 in that case. 180 00:07:46.279 --> 00:07:49.319 I'm very interested in his how he keeps talking about 181 00:07:49.319 --> 00:07:52.240 the leaders in all these different ways. First he likes 182 00:07:52.279 --> 00:07:54.959 the new leaders because they're better than the old leaders. 183 00:07:54.959 --> 00:07:58.120 They killed all the old leaders. Then he also does 184 00:07:58.160 --> 00:08:00.920 sometimes we don't know who the leaders are. And then 185 00:08:00.959 --> 00:08:04.199 this one was they're awful, they're dishonorable people, they're lunatics. 186 00:08:04.600 --> 00:08:04.839 Yeah. 187 00:08:04.879 --> 00:08:07.240 It's also we've been through so many rounds of reporting 188 00:08:07.279 --> 00:08:09.800 in which where Trump felt we were on the precipice 189 00:08:09.800 --> 00:08:13.519 of a deal, then the talks fall apart. But if 190 00:08:13.519 --> 00:08:18.439 you take out the spinning coming from the administration. Is 191 00:08:18.480 --> 00:08:20.519 it possible that really they've just been far apart the 192 00:08:20.560 --> 00:08:23.480 whole time because the ven diagram of On one side, 193 00:08:23.519 --> 00:08:26.000 you have Trump requiring a deal that is better than 194 00:08:26.000 --> 00:08:28.959 the JCPOA, the Obama deal because he said that deal 195 00:08:29.000 --> 00:08:30.639 with the worst you'll ever made. On the other side, 196 00:08:30.680 --> 00:08:33.519 you have Iran in a stronger position when the war began, 197 00:08:33.679 --> 00:08:38.919 wanting a better deal than that, including consequences to the ES. Yeah, 198 00:08:38.960 --> 00:08:41.600 to the US, reparations for the cost of the war, 199 00:08:41.720 --> 00:08:44.799 and the power it's gained from having control of the 200 00:08:44.840 --> 00:08:47.480 straight or removes. Those circles don't overlap. So what are 201 00:08:47.480 --> 00:08:50.279 we doing here exact? Just we keep and then the 202 00:08:50.360 --> 00:08:52.480 reporting is so credulous, and so it feels like we're 203 00:08:52.480 --> 00:08:54.799 having this up or down, up and down roller coaster, 204 00:08:54.879 --> 00:08:56.480 but really we're just dealing with the like kind of 205 00:08:56.519 --> 00:09:02.279 strategic reality of this stud fucking war. Yeah, it comes 206 00:09:02.320 --> 00:09:03.799 me out personally same. 207 00:09:04.480 --> 00:09:06.840 Well, it also sounds like, and you know they said 208 00:09:06.840 --> 00:09:09.679 that they in all these plans and proposals that Iron 209 00:09:09.799 --> 00:09:12.159 keeps sending back or responding to, it sounds like they 210 00:09:12.200 --> 00:09:13.600 just want to keep control of the straight up her 211 00:09:13.639 --> 00:09:14.960 moves no doubt, and why wouldn't. 212 00:09:15.080 --> 00:09:17.200 Or they want sanctions relief, or they want one together, 213 00:09:17.240 --> 00:09:19.840 they need a financial lifeline. But it's also like they're 214 00:09:19.919 --> 00:09:22.360 they're sending over their maximal's position. We send over our 215 00:09:22.360 --> 00:09:24.519 maximalist position, and then we just get mad and walk away. 216 00:09:24.519 --> 00:09:27.559 That's not how negotiations work. Get in a room, hash 217 00:09:27.600 --> 00:09:30.000 it out, give a little on each side, and maybe 218 00:09:30.039 --> 00:09:31.960 we can come to some conclusion. But they're just like 219 00:09:32.320 --> 00:09:34.360 they're not even trying. Trump's like I didn't read the 220 00:09:34.399 --> 00:09:37.759 one page memo all the way to the bottom. 221 00:09:38.120 --> 00:09:42.919 Bob Kagan, the hawkish neocon Iraq war supporting Bob Kagan, 222 00:09:43.039 --> 00:09:46.399 that one just wrote a piece of theo. 223 00:09:47.320 --> 00:09:50.080 I just caller Bobby Bobby. 224 00:09:51.399 --> 00:09:53.759 He just wrote a piece in The Atlantic titled Checkmate 225 00:09:53.879 --> 00:09:56.519 in Iran that starts, It's hard to think of a 226 00:09:56.559 --> 00:09:58.720 time when the United States suffered a total defeat in 227 00:09:58.759 --> 00:10:02.120 the conflict, a set back so decisive that the strategic 228 00:10:02.159 --> 00:10:04.159 loss could be neither repaired nor ignored. 229 00:10:04.519 --> 00:10:04.679 Uh. 230 00:10:04.679 --> 00:10:07.000 He then ticks through every conflict since Pearl Harbor and 231 00:10:07.039 --> 00:10:09.080 basically makes the case that Trump's fuck up and Iran 232 00:10:09.440 --> 00:10:12.039 will be more consequential than all of them. 233 00:10:12.519 --> 00:10:13.879 Would you guys think I just want. 234 00:10:13.759 --> 00:10:15.879 To just before we get to get it, and that 235 00:10:16.000 --> 00:10:19.440 the neo, the Neo Khon High Dudgeon of the two thousands, 236 00:10:19.440 --> 00:10:20.399 I still do not miss. 237 00:10:20.480 --> 00:10:22.559 Like, look, this is a very big bunder. 238 00:10:22.720 --> 00:10:25.159 I think it is a little it's a little premature 239 00:10:25.200 --> 00:10:28.679 to be saying it's it's worse than Pearl Harbor. 240 00:10:28.799 --> 00:10:30.960 Like, oh see, I thought Pearl Harber was actually one 241 00:10:31.000 --> 00:10:33.320 of the easier ones because because Pearl Harbor is thing 242 00:10:33.440 --> 00:10:35.480 was like, we came back and we won that one, 243 00:10:35.600 --> 00:10:36.320 pretty decision. 244 00:10:36.399 --> 00:10:38.919 Sure in hindsight it looked pretty good, but a year 245 00:10:39.000 --> 00:10:40.639 or so after Pearl Harbor things were pretty. 246 00:10:40.480 --> 00:10:40.879 Up in the air. 247 00:10:40.960 --> 00:10:42.399 You're gonna go to Iraq because that one was He 248 00:10:42.440 --> 00:10:44.200 was like, yeah, then we left. Then eventually we left 249 00:10:44.240 --> 00:10:47.639 Iraq stick more and I'm like, oh did we ya? 250 00:10:48.080 --> 00:10:48.519 YadA there? 251 00:10:48.559 --> 00:10:50.919 For that was my big note too, like I want 252 00:10:50.960 --> 00:10:54.080 to build the biggest ten possible. But his idea that 253 00:10:54.120 --> 00:10:56.960 a RAQ was mitigated by like a strategic change and 254 00:10:57.000 --> 00:10:59.799 then all's well, that ends well because like Saddam's not 255 00:10:59.840 --> 00:11:00.360 there now. 256 00:11:00.440 --> 00:11:01.799 I yeah, that was a little much for me. 257 00:11:01.879 --> 00:11:04.480 But this is all like throw clearing around what was 258 00:11:04.679 --> 00:11:11.000 truly a bracing and like just dismal read on the situation, 259 00:11:11.159 --> 00:11:14.919 including laying out like just how few options Trump has 260 00:11:15.000 --> 00:11:18.879 because part of the reason he called off military strikes 261 00:11:18.919 --> 00:11:21.360 wanted a ceased fire is because of the leverage Iran 262 00:11:21.679 --> 00:11:25.639 had when it was striking oil and gas infrastructure in 263 00:11:25.879 --> 00:11:28.200 the reason in the region. How he can try to 264 00:11:28.240 --> 00:11:30.960 declare victory, but that still leaves the strait of or moves. 265 00:11:31.000 --> 00:11:34.879 How like that all the options that Trump has are 266 00:11:34.960 --> 00:11:35.639 fucking terrible. 267 00:11:35.720 --> 00:11:36.519 Yeah, They're all terrible. 268 00:11:36.559 --> 00:11:38.960 And also the Israelis have also just been crystal clear 269 00:11:38.960 --> 00:11:40.279 that they don't think the war's over. I mean, if 270 00:11:40.320 --> 00:11:42.840 you watch Nan Yaioh in sixty minutes, he said as much. 271 00:11:42.960 --> 00:11:44.559 There's also the war in Lebanon. If you want a 272 00:11:44.559 --> 00:11:46.320 weaker ceasefire, I could point you to one, the one 273 00:11:46.320 --> 00:11:48.600 in Lebanon where they're bombing each other all the time 274 00:11:48.639 --> 00:11:51.279 and there's constant fighting like daily, there's casualties all the time. 275 00:11:51.879 --> 00:11:52.080 Yeah. 276 00:11:52.120 --> 00:11:54.639 So I agree with this assessment that these Iranians are 277 00:11:54.639 --> 00:11:56.279 not going to get up the straight over moves unless 278 00:11:56.320 --> 00:11:59.960 they get sanctions really for something like really big for it, 279 00:12:00.080 --> 00:12:02.440 and that we look weak and we look kind of 280 00:12:02.519 --> 00:12:05.360 feckless and unreliable. 281 00:12:05.919 --> 00:12:07.080 It's also like the gall. 282 00:12:07.000 --> 00:12:10.799 Of Trump saying, oh, these people are dishonorable, like you 283 00:12:11.440 --> 00:12:16.440 used previous talks as a smoke screen to uh to 284 00:12:16.519 --> 00:12:21.200 bomb the leadership. You have ripped up the previous agreement, 285 00:12:21.240 --> 00:12:22.679 and you may not have liked it, but it was 286 00:12:22.679 --> 00:12:25.120 negotiated in good faith by the United States, which you 287 00:12:25.120 --> 00:12:29.679 can you know, which whose authority came from Obama to you. 288 00:12:29.759 --> 00:12:31.879 So you've kind of undermined our credibility there. They have 289 00:12:31.960 --> 00:12:34.440 no confidence that Trump won't change his mind in a 290 00:12:34.480 --> 00:12:37.159 couple of months and resume bombing if they accept a deal. 291 00:12:37.200 --> 00:12:41.120 They have no confidence that Israel won't bomb Iran if 292 00:12:41.120 --> 00:12:42.720 it'd used it in its interest, even if there is 293 00:12:42.759 --> 00:12:46.159 a deal. So just like the the the kind of 294 00:12:46.399 --> 00:12:49.240 the the the kind of the way in which we're 295 00:12:49.279 --> 00:12:51.320 like stuck in this morass because Trump went into this 296 00:12:51.399 --> 00:12:52.000 so half cocked. 297 00:12:52.039 --> 00:12:53.559 It's just it's it's. 298 00:12:53.720 --> 00:12:55.919 It's just sort of gruesome minutes when you step back 299 00:12:55.960 --> 00:12:56.480 and look at it. 300 00:12:56.600 --> 00:12:58.960 I think there were times in this conflict where people said, oh, 301 00:12:59.039 --> 00:13:01.559 you know, I remember thinking this at one point, Oh, 302 00:13:01.559 --> 00:13:04.960 he could end up just going back to like Obama's 303 00:13:04.960 --> 00:13:07.159 Iron Deal, right, and then call it a victory, but 304 00:13:07.200 --> 00:13:08.679 it's going to be like around me, like, oh, you know, 305 00:13:08.679 --> 00:13:11.000 you all criticized Obama for this. I think it's pretty 306 00:13:11.000 --> 00:13:13.759 clear now that there's no way he gets a deal 307 00:13:14.279 --> 00:13:16.840 that's better or even the same as the Iran deal. 308 00:13:16.919 --> 00:13:19.879 It's gonna be worse because when the Iran deal was made, 309 00:13:20.559 --> 00:13:23.080 Iran didn't control the Straight of Four Moves like this 310 00:13:23.080 --> 00:13:26.399 piece made me think about the not I knew about 311 00:13:26.399 --> 00:13:29.600 the strategic importance of the strait, but just from Iran's perspective, 312 00:13:29.639 --> 00:13:32.519 now they've got the control. Even they get some sanctions relief, 313 00:13:32.639 --> 00:13:34.559 they're gonna have to get a lot more sanctions relief 314 00:13:34.879 --> 00:13:37.159 and a lot when they're calling it reparations or whatever, 315 00:13:37.320 --> 00:13:40.039 than they ever were before because they got the straight 316 00:13:40.399 --> 00:13:41.639 they have full control over it. 317 00:13:41.679 --> 00:13:41.919 Now. 318 00:13:42.159 --> 00:13:44.919 Maybe they go for a deal where they charge some tolls, 319 00:13:44.960 --> 00:13:47.919 maybe they share control with other, you know, Gulf nations 320 00:13:47.919 --> 00:13:51.120 of this problem. But it seems like the scenario now 321 00:13:51.200 --> 00:13:53.799 where Iran willingly signed some kind of a deal where 322 00:13:53.840 --> 00:13:56.360 they fully give up the Straight of Horror moves and 323 00:13:56.480 --> 00:13:58.879 it goes back to being like an international waterway seems 324 00:13:59.120 --> 00:13:59.639 very slim. 325 00:13:59.759 --> 00:14:02.600 There's no chance they just got this incredible toy, and 326 00:14:02.639 --> 00:14:04.159 they're going to play with it for as long as 327 00:14:04.159 --> 00:14:06.240 they want until it breaks or someone takes it away. 328 00:14:06.240 --> 00:14:07.039 There's just no chance. 329 00:14:07.120 --> 00:14:10.200 But also it could get worse, like if Ye Trump 330 00:14:10.240 --> 00:14:12.799 decides to go back to war, the economic cost could 331 00:14:12.840 --> 00:14:14.879 be just a resumption of what we've seen. But also 332 00:14:14.960 --> 00:14:16.559 the Houthy rebels could get involved. 333 00:14:16.320 --> 00:14:16.879 There in Yemen. 334 00:14:17.159 --> 00:14:19.039 They could start firing at ships in the Red Sea. 335 00:14:19.159 --> 00:14:21.279 They should could choke off you know, the Saudi's have 336 00:14:21.320 --> 00:14:22.639 been sending a lot of their oil and guests that 337 00:14:22.639 --> 00:14:24.159 they can't get out through the Straight or her moves 338 00:14:24.159 --> 00:14:26.320 west through a pipeline and then it'll get out through 339 00:14:26.320 --> 00:14:29.320 the Red Sea or through the Suez Canal. If the 340 00:14:29.360 --> 00:14:31.720 hooth He's get involved and they choke off those access 341 00:14:31.759 --> 00:14:35.080 points too, like prices could hit three hundred dollars a arrow. 342 00:14:35.360 --> 00:14:36.039 It's a disaster. 343 00:14:36.120 --> 00:14:38.159 And also, by the way, we're not even talking about 344 00:14:38.320 --> 00:14:41.320 the reason we're in a we're there, which is the 345 00:14:41.399 --> 00:14:44.039 nuclear material, the nine hundred pounds of highly enriched uranium. 346 00:14:44.240 --> 00:14:47.759 Sometimes it's dust, sometimes it's critical to get out. It 347 00:14:47.840 --> 00:14:50.480 is still sitting in Iran. And also all of that 348 00:14:50.559 --> 00:14:53.919 material was enriched after Trump pulled out of the JCOP 349 00:14:54.240 --> 00:14:56.960 jcpoas with's a problem he created and now is probably 350 00:14:57.000 --> 00:14:57.559 not going to solve. 351 00:14:57.639 --> 00:15:00.000 I like the scenario that he mentioned where they were 352 00:15:00.200 --> 00:15:02.320 we were going to go in together with the Iranians, 353 00:15:02.320 --> 00:15:05.320 like just a group field trip to go to dig 354 00:15:05.399 --> 00:15:07.960 under the rubble and to find all the nuclear dust together. 355 00:15:08.480 --> 00:15:10.360 I'd go, I thought that was a real that's a 356 00:15:10.960 --> 00:15:14.159 that's a show I'd watch. I also like, and this 357 00:15:14.200 --> 00:15:16.440 is so this is around giving up the straight like 358 00:15:16.519 --> 00:15:19.799 through some negotiation. Then there's the other option of trying 359 00:15:19.840 --> 00:15:23.120 to take it by force, but that that requires like 360 00:15:23.559 --> 00:15:27.879 you know, uh US Navy ships potentially getting fired on 361 00:15:29.039 --> 00:15:32.960 and around small boats firing on other ships too. And 362 00:15:33.080 --> 00:15:34.960 then Kagan points out in this piece too, even if 363 00:15:34.960 --> 00:15:37.159 they are not firing on the ships, they can retaliate 364 00:15:37.200 --> 00:15:40.639 against Gulf energy infrastructure like they did however many weeks 365 00:15:40.639 --> 00:15:43.120 ago before the ceasefire. So like, they have plenty of 366 00:15:43.200 --> 00:15:46.679 options around, and clearly they are fine taking a whole 367 00:15:46.679 --> 00:15:50.360 bunch of punishment because you know, as the Trump administration 368 00:15:50.440 --> 00:15:52.080 likes to point out, they don't give a shit about 369 00:15:52.080 --> 00:15:52.600 their own people. 370 00:15:52.639 --> 00:15:54.120 They kill, protests and all kind of stuff. 371 00:15:54.440 --> 00:15:56.600 They surely are not going to care if they're going 372 00:15:56.679 --> 00:15:59.440 to inflict a ton of economic pain on their country, 373 00:16:00.440 --> 00:16:02.279 Like it's not like they care a lot about their people, 374 00:16:02.279 --> 00:16:04.759 So yeah, they're gonna have They're gonna have the appetite 375 00:16:04.759 --> 00:16:05.279 for a lot of pain. 376 00:16:05.360 --> 00:16:07.200 Yeah, that's the part that's sort of like chilling about 377 00:16:07.200 --> 00:16:09.799 where we're at because we're in this sort of stalemate 378 00:16:09.840 --> 00:16:13.519 in which Trump looks like a loser. He can try 379 00:16:13.720 --> 00:16:17.399 to declare victory, but they'll still be the ongoing cost 380 00:16:17.480 --> 00:16:20.639 of us having kind of shown our might and Iran 381 00:16:20.720 --> 00:16:23.240 remaining in power and now controlling the Strait of Hormuz. 382 00:16:23.440 --> 00:16:28.639 Or there's escalation and we've already done, We've already you know, 383 00:16:29.000 --> 00:16:33.120 launched a massive campaign against Iran and the regime held together. 384 00:16:34.080 --> 00:16:36.440 What escalation looks like, how far they'd have to go, 385 00:16:36.799 --> 00:16:40.840 because the next the next escalation is toward the regime collapsing, 386 00:16:40.879 --> 00:16:44.399 and that's a combination of economic pressure to squeeze them. 387 00:16:44.519 --> 00:16:49.240 That's more an intense military action, and like it all, 388 00:16:49.600 --> 00:16:52.039 and while that is happening, even if it were to 389 00:16:52.039 --> 00:16:55.519 happen relatively quickly, you're still talking about Iran unloading whatever 390 00:16:55.559 --> 00:16:57.360 it is it's willing to do in the Gulf and 391 00:16:57.399 --> 00:16:59.840 so just they are terrible options in front of America's 392 00:16:59.840 --> 00:17:00.639 were person. 393 00:17:00.559 --> 00:17:02.799 And this was totally like Trump is a drunk guy 394 00:17:02.840 --> 00:17:05.240 at the bar who's been lifting a lot and decided 395 00:17:05.240 --> 00:17:07.440 to pick a fight with the crazy guy who is 396 00:17:07.480 --> 00:17:10.720 cauliflower ere and that guy is kicking the shit out 397 00:17:10.720 --> 00:17:13.079 of him and is willing to go a lot further 398 00:17:13.200 --> 00:17:15.599 to win this fight than Donald Trump is and take 399 00:17:15.640 --> 00:17:17.279 a lot more pain and it's not gonna well. 400 00:17:17.279 --> 00:17:19.119 Yeah, and by the way, you also killed his father, 401 00:17:19.160 --> 00:17:21.640