Speaker 1: You are.
Speaker 2: Welcome to the best sports betting show of the planet.
This is Wager Talk Today. I am your host, Andy Lang.
It is Thursday Today. You're gonna hear from Johnny. We're
gonna get a big steam report. We're going to hear
from Dave Mason, bookmaker, from Ben online dot ag where
the sharp money is going. We're gonna talk a little
college football UFC Shanghai with Kyle Anthony, NFL preseason breakdowns.
You're gonna get information here that most betters are not
going to get. So if you want the edge, this
is where you find it. Let's get started here. Let's
bring on it. Geohnny. While we're doing that, hit the
like button, Guys, Ad, Steve Ross, Johnny are my only friends?
Brent all Right?
Speaker 1: Brother?
Speaker 2: Well, hey, sometimes you just keep a very very close
circle of friends. Brent, happy to be a part of it.
In a happy Thursday, Johnny, haven't seen you in a
couple of days. How's everything going. I know it's a busy,
busy Thursday.
Speaker 3: Amazing. Yeah, absolutely, really really busy Thursday. I have to
get up really early because we've been hiring on the tennis,
and that tennis has just been stealing man. They went
six and oh yesterday with a plus two seventy a
plus one point fifteen. It was like they're just the
first day they split. I think we hit one more
bet than we lost, and since then, I don't think
we've lost the bet. But I can't even use them
and I'm not even going to give out the tennis.
Forgive me. Last time I gave out the tennis here
I had to get belted by customer service about all
the line. Move the line, bro, what do you think
they're going to do? These are they're not They're qualifiers.
They're not even the main tournament. If I bet it,
it's gonna move. Like if you don't want to know
the information, I won't share the information, But like, what
could I do? I'm giving it as I'm betting it,
and I can't help it if no one else is
betting the other side. These are qualifiers. If they can't
write a bet on the other team, they're going to
move it a lot. And there's not anyone else really
betting these qualifiers except us, So if we bet minus
one ten within minutes, it's gonna get them on seventy.
That's not my fault. I can't control that. I just said,
you know what I talked to Johnny. I said, I'm
just gonna save the headache and just not release any
tennis unless it's a major, major tournament towards the end
where everybody could get down, because it's just not worth
dealing with the headache of like, I can't help if
you don't have aunds, you don't have ounds, don't bet it.
I forgive me, but I just I can't believe it.
You get out free information, they still complain. I just
don't understand. And then there's guys giving out saying the
guys are selling same game parlays out there, and they're
pissed that I'm giving plus one to eighty money lines
that go off at one fifty. You know what I mean.
Speaker 2: Well, we had a tennis play that's opened at minus
one twenty and it closed at minus two seventy five.
Speaker 3: So guilty, that's what it's supposed to do.
Speaker 2: Oops, Yeah, that's what it's Sorry, Yeah, it happens. It happens. Well,
I want to talk data White Contender series here towards
the end, but we have a lot of lines to
look at.
Speaker 3: H I got a lot of a lot of NFL,
A lot of preseason small college football, I mean small
major league baseball, not too much, but a lot of
a lot of NFL.
Speaker 2: Well, let's talk NFL and college football. Huge move on
the Giants. The New England open minus two and a
half now Giants or minus six.
Speaker 1: And a half.
Speaker 2: I totally get that. Who I can't believe they open
New England as a favorite in that one. I see,
we got a couple of totals here. What are you
seeing from your end on the steam report?
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you gotta be careful because both games tonight
did get steamed, but not if the numbers are sent
in at right now. Perfect example. One on one, Pittsburgh
got bet at minus two minus three, and even through
that key number, they laid minus four. But they're not
laying the five and five and a halfs. That's the
piggybankers and recreational betters laying that bad number. And under
thirty six and a half also got sharp money. Same
thing with the Giants. I saw all the way up
to minus four for minus two and a half. I
saw up the minus four, but right now when I'm
seeing in recreational accounts, they're laying minus six with the Giants,
or they're teasing the Giants. They're teasing in preseason to
get the Giants down to a pick on. Let me
explain something to you. When you use a teaser and
you take a minus six down to a pick them,
you do not have that team on the money line
because you now have to hit another bet and you're
laying minus one thirty for that privilege. So you don't
have team ay at a pick them like you think.
You have two teams that both have to win at
an adjusted number with added veig So there's more pieces
to the puzzle than just getting the Giants down to
a pick them, So be cautious with using creativity to
get a bet that you think is giving you a
better price when it really ultimately isn't. Real fast, I'll
go through these quickly because Saturday, Friday and Saturday there's
a ton of NFL. Let me try to point you
guys in some of the right directions. One ten Tennessee,
Tennessee minus one and a half, two and a half,
and three. But when it got to four and a half,
I saw take back on Minnesota. That shows you when
the lines moved significantly. The only question you have to
ask yourself, is now is there value on the other side,
because I already missed the boat one eleven, Chicago at
plus three. Also Little Ony last sprinkled on Chicago one sixteen,
Cincinnati plus three and a half and plus three the Piggybackers,
they're laying points with Cincinnati. The Steamchasers laid one and
a half. They laid two, and I'm sure the public
will get them up to three. But rest the short
the sharp side is Cincinnati at plus three and a half,
at plus three, not minus one and a half, not
minus two, not minus three, So be cautious. Numbers matter
they like at the end of the day, you gotta
be betting good numbers. Indianapolis, Cincinnati also under thirty eight
and a half and thirty seven and a half, one
twenty Cleveland minus three and a half and four. They
started seeing what was happening, and this book started moving significantly.
So before they go minus three and a half, minus four,
minus four and a half, maybe to four and a half,
then the six that didn't happen. You're starting to see
a preseason. Once a key number gets hit, like three,
and then through the key number gets hit, they're really
a justin. So they're going from minus three and a
half minus four to minus seven, and that's when you
started seeing take back on the rams at plus seven.
So Cleveland minus three and a half and poor Rams
plus seven both sharp bets. Just the different number one
twenty over thirty seven and a half thirty eight rams
Cleveland one twenty four, Green Bay minus one, one twenty six,
Miami minus one and a half, Autoway to minus three.
Piggybackers are betting all the way up to minus five
and one twenty seven. Buffalo plus one also sold Vegas
and Chargers in there, but need to get more confirmation again.
As my subscribers will tell you, I think I might
have released only two NFL so far this week, coming
off with ten and four week two because I've waited
for confirmation. Made the mistake in the first week that
cost us. That's not going to happen again. So I
know I'm releasing a lot of sharp information, but you
got to remember, with the lines moving so significantly, there
will be take back. So for premium plays, we're gonna
wait and wait for strong, strong confirmations. Staying selective in preseason,
especially Love.
Speaker 2: It, Love It College football. I see we got a
lot of movement on the total in the Stanford Hawaii
game open fifty five and a half, that's down to
fifty and a half. Makes sense. You got a Stanford
team that, you know, lot of things up in the air,
and the Hawaii team just doesn't the juggernaut that it
once was. Anything else in college football of note, No,
just the two.
Speaker 3: Way action in Kansas State in Iowa State, Like, I
saw early sharp action on the Kansas State side, and
then at three and a half, I was seeing Iowa
State getting picked off. And then in the Kansas Fresno
state Fresno was one of those summer steam moves where
you saw they took out the fourteen and a half.
So they took out the fourteen on Fresno. Makes sense.
Once it got down the twelve, I did see some
sharp betters lay the twelve with Kansas, and actually I
like that side. I thought Kansas anything less than two
touchdowns I thought was the right side. So when I
saw the Fresno steam it kind of got me off
the game. But now I'm starting to see some Kansas
sharp money come back, so kind of leaning that way
as well. And yeah, the Hawaii game Hawaii and the
public and the wise guys are on Hawaii. The whyse
Like I said on Ben on It, I gave out
Hawaii to my subscribers weeks ago on the money line
at minus one fifteen. I think that money line is
up there like minus one thirty one thirty five. So
we got a good number, which is good. But I
don't like when the sharps and the public are all
on the same side and the books aren't reflecting that,
meaning Hawaii should be a three point favorite right now.
The reason they're not a three point favorite is probably
any three that went out there there was by orders
taken on the dog on Stanford or else, we'd be
looking at threes probably across the boarder, because Hawaii is
a lot of risk for the books already, and I
think it's just gonna pole up between now and kickoff, all.
Speaker 2: Right, anything in baseball I see Colorado, yeah money, yep.
Speaker 4: You Colorado again becomes Darling right now. Colorado is the
wise guy Darling. Not only are they betting Colorado to
win games on the money line, but they're betting Colorado
on the run line as well, where you're not.
Speaker 3: Getting as you know, as good odds. But here's you
gotta remember with Colorado, they've been making you a lot
of money of late. This is a team now that's
won seven of their last ten games.
Speaker 2: Okay, amazing two.
Speaker 5: Two of the three of.
Speaker 3: Those games they were two to one or better as dogs.
They were never less than plus one fifty. That's the
great equal liser man the money line in sports. And
just like the points spread in point in spread bets,
and we talked about that. You know, this is the
time of the year where it's gonna be hard to
make money in baseball if you're going with the narrative,
and that means betting, though, teams that need to win
to get in the playoffs are jockey and for position
and fading. Those teams that have been bad all season.
Those teams that have been bad all season, they're bringing
up youth right now. Those kids got a reason to play.
They are trying to make the team. They're trying to
play in Major League Baseball, not TRIPLEA. So they're gonna
bring it each and every night. And it's hard to
bet these teams because of how bad they've been all year.
But Colorado is a perfect example of that. If you're
getting plus two hundred. You gotta win one out of
three bets just to break even. And we talked about
it in the beginning of the year. Very few teams
when the season's over are gonna win less than thirty
percent of their games. It's only those seasons where it's
an outlier. So keep that in mind over the next
six weeks because you're gonna have to run into some
of those burning buildings if you want to make money
in baseball.
Speaker 2: You know, I'm looking at the standings in the last
ten games, and here's who have the best best records
the last ten games. The yank the Braves, and the
Rockies will who.
Speaker 3: You couldn't talk people into it like you's you could
have gave them your money to bet it and they
wouldn't have bet it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, uh anything on road to UFC. We have
a question about road to UFC. I run for the
hills on road to UFC. That is such a dangerous
that's such a dangerous use. Those fights are very dangerous
to bet on. The only thing I like And she's
already minus two seventy five. Bruna Brazil in the main
event means she I means she's coming off an unbelievably
devastating knockout, like she put the girl in the hospital,
but the fact that she was getting her ass kicked
before that at Bruna Brazil. You, I mean, she's not
great in the UFC, but she is UFC caliber. But
it's minus two seventy five. I don't have anything else
in road to UFC. I do not bet on those
fights you.
Speaker 3: No, I do. Actually, I just like that small promotions PFL, LFA,
but I'm very very selective. I'll straight I did all
UFC because I have to send them in some betting
notes each and every week. So I've been working on
that card over the last two days and plan today
to dig into those roads, the UFC and PFL. So
maybe have something for you guys, and check the free
PA picks page as well. Nothing there, But someone asked
titan Ast about Yankees Boston. I like the Yankees. I
like the Yankees. I like them at the opener a
lot more than the current price. But I think it's
a Yankee favored or pass right now in that game,
I think it's the Yankees are a pass. The problem is,
again the lines moved a little too significantly.
Speaker 2: I gotta ask you about Contender Series. That was one
of my biggest winning nights ever in Contender Series. Just
watching live, I told you'd like that him and his guy. Also,
he's really really good man. I love that guy. We
we did our live show and listen Quozy nothing but respect.
We unloaded on him walking that port, watch him walk
out to the octagon, that it was a land going
to be slaughtered. What was it like in the building. Uh,
there's obviously a lot more energy and a lot more
positive one.
Speaker 3: It was a total difference between like what a contrast
between week one and week two. It was almost like
once that first fight ended, it was like, okay, now
we're back to normal. Okay, now now the contendancy is
back to normal because we were coming off three decisions
the week, four decisions out of five fights in the
week prior, you know, not signing a bunch of guys.
So yeah, it was like b Joe Pifer all over again.
And that's exactly what we saw in week two with
the finishes. It's funny because you saw a lot of
those lines move significantly. And here's what mistake that betters
make with Contender Series that I've realized these lines move
a lot, and if you're not getting down early, then
you're forcing yourself to either parlay or get creative. So
now you're making already a difficult exercise even harder. It's
hard to off to determine the outcome between two human
beings at that particular time on that day, how they're
going to perform, Like there's a lot of randomness to
that question, but then how they're gonna do it, Not
just if they're gonna do it, but then how they're
gonna do it. Are they gonna sub are they gonna
knock out? Are think there's gonna be a decision? Like
now you're going to making it adding levels of thinking
that makes it so much harder. You're going so far
out on the risk curve and the return is never
worth it. Like if you're forcing yourself to have to
get more creative to place a bet, you shouldn't be
placing it. If there's not value at minus five hundred,
then let it go. I'm not telling you to go
out there and lay minus five hundreds, because you know
that's how you go broke really fast. But what it
means is you just missed the boat. You might like
that sign. It was a great bet at minus three hundred.
Now you can't let it go for the next one
and next time fired, fire sooner, pull the trigger sooner,
but don't wait till the end like I have to
do for the show. Like that's the least optim I'm betting.
I'm bet in the Contender series, which is hard enough,
but I'm betting closing lines a contender series on the show.
That's why you know what I mean suicidal? But again,
well where that shows you just how much value because
of the lines moved so much?
Speaker 2: Man, Well, now that we now that you pull back
the curtain, we're like rooting for you on our show,
like we're like rooting hard for in an impossible situation
on there. So it's a great Thursday. I know we
got a big weekend ahead. What do you have up
for everyone at wager time?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just said it out the second UFC bet
for this Saturday's card, so the package will go up.
There's the NFL for Saturday preseason already confirmed. A couple
of bets I have Friday Week, I mean is a
Saturday College football Week zero college football package already up
finish number one in profit two of the last four
years in college football turned the profit and for the
left as fine. Loving the college football. Really ready for
it this season, So jump on board for Saturday, and yeah,
over these next couple months, I'm just so excited, man,
really really excited to do some damage in football. And yeah,
it's gonna be a busy weekend. So jump on board.
Speaker 2: Great time, awesome stuff, Johnny. Great to have you here.
Good to have you. Back to the Steam Report, and
I'll see you again tomorrow. Let's have a big thurs Day.
So all right, guys, a big special that we have
up is by September, and you get August for free.
Get the rest of August. What is it twenty first, Yeah,
you get about a week and a half already of
free plays here. So just by September, cost drops about
forty nine dollars a week. It's less than seven bucks
a day. We got college football, we got NFL preseason,
we got all the big time sports, so might as
well tackle on some free days on this back. Now,
if you're gonna, if you're gonna latch onto a haiticap
or do it right now. You get to all of
September and then you're gonna get plays for this weekend here,
So don't sit back and wait till the last second
or the last day of August. Lock it in now,
grab the free weeks and ride with us all the
way through September. Again by September and get the rest
of August free. This is good for any handicapper, so
take advantage of that now. So let's see Gott. Gott
keeps asking about PFL. We're not gonna do a PFL
video because I believe those fights are tonight sketchy card.
We have not had very good success in PFL. Bill
a Steini by Ko over Carl Williams might be a
good look. Carl's gonna be a wrestler, billis Steed, but honestly,
nothing much. You got an minus eleven hundred minus twenty
eight hundred, so not great lines, so not really gonna,
not really gonna force it. I think it's terrible fights
in PFL. It's absolutely awful fights. So actually, Dan, if
Kyle's ready, let's do. Uh, let's do, let's do Kyle,
let's let's get let's talk some UFC Shanghai. We're waiting
for Dave Mason, so we'll bring on Kyle, and we'll
talk UFC here. We got a weird card here. It's
gonna start at three am my time. So awesome, Kyle.
Nothing says, let's let's have a great, big UFC card
and starting at three am. So let's let's bring on
Kyle here, Yo, Dad, let's bring up there. He is there.
He is the man, the myth of the legend, Kyle
strange card. We're gonna to break down a couple of fights.
I am debating whether or not I want to stay
up and watch it.
Speaker 5: I think debate.
Speaker 6: The only question really is is do you stay up
and watch it or do you.
Speaker 5: Go to bed early and get up it.
Speaker 6: Like there's a little bit of a game you gotta
play there with, like do you do you try to
just call it at night and get up early. But
I'm probably gonna get up early and watch some of
these fights, maybe miss some.
Speaker 5: Of those early early prelims, but definitely gonna get up
broadly watch it.
Speaker 2: Well, let's talk a couple of these fights here. We
do have some bedable opportunities, So let's start with Michelle
and the returning Kyle Daucas Kyle, I love the opportunity
to fade Aducas. Any time I get a Dacas in
the UFCU, this one worries me. But I'm interested in
your breakdown. How do you break down Michelle Prayer and
Kyle Dawcas.
Speaker 6: Yeah, so we have Michelle Pereira, he's sitting around minus
two seventy on the comeback. Here we've got Kyle daucas
He's at plus two fifteen. Now, the first thing you
look at the Pereira fight is the fact that his
last fight was pretty much he threw it. And I
know that sounds crazy, but that was one of the
worst performances we have seen from him, and almost like
a glorified sparring match. He didn't really try against Maga Mettoff.
You know, it was just pitter patter shot. It was
very ugly altogether. So it's definitely gonna be hard to
trust this guy. But when you look at really what's
kind of going on in his body of work. You know,
since he moved up from one to seventy to one
eighty five, I think it's been a great move for him.
You know, one seventy very very tough for him to make.
He was training himself. He had multiple issues trying to
make weight. And then once he got to one eighty five,
you know, he definitely kept the power, you know, kept
his strength, you know, kept a lot of the speed that.
Speaker 5: He had even at one eighty five.
Speaker 6: And then you look at the fact that his three
first fights, all first round finishes, looked really good. And
then they gave him Fluffy Hernandez, which is probably one
of the worst stylistic matchups for him. The guy's got
in sane cardio and sane pace, great wrestling. And even
though with all of that and Fluffy finished him in
the fifth round, you know, you still saw Pereira. You know,
he heard him in the first round, almost finished him
in the first round, and then that was kind of
it for him.
Speaker 5: He had that one splash, it wasn't able to get it.
Speaker 6: And then also then he lost the next one to
Maga metav which was a terrible performance overall. But I
do think due to those really bad performances, I think
the markets providing some nice opportunities here and methods of
victory and those types of things.
Speaker 5: And the other thing you got to look at is
also the.
Speaker 6: Fact this is a massive step down and competition here
for Pereira.
Speaker 5: You know, you're fighting these top level guys.
Speaker 6: Fluffy's going to be fighting, you know, for a title
possibly soon. And now you're fighting Kyle Dawcas. And you
got Kyle Daucas here, who this is his second stint
in the US. See, you know, his first then didn't
really go that well. He was two four and one
in the UFC before they cut him. He got knocked
out back to back times and just really bad look overall.
Then he goes to CFFC, which is a lower level organization,
and even there, you know, he goes out there he
does win four straight fights, but even there, you know,
he was rock bobbled multiple times, had some really bad looks,
and he's fighting guys that are pretty much part time fighters.
You know, they're construction workers during the day and they're
fighters at night. You know, these records of the guys
that he beat six and three, eight and six, seventeen
and nine, eight and eleven, very bottom of the barrel guys.
And this is again a massive step down for Perera here.
And you look at the biggest issues here for Daucas
is going to be his durability. You know, again, knocked
out twice before he was cut from the UFC. He's
very hit able in the pocket, has no striking defense,
and Pereira, if he lets his hands go, I think
he really dominates very early in this fight here. Plus,
I think that Daucas does need takedowns, and daucas twenty
five percent takedown success rate not the greatest. Pereira is
his sixty seven uh takedown defense rate. I think he
keeps us on the beat. I think Daucas is way
too hittable, and I think that this is providing a
great line for inside the distance here. So getting off
Pereira at the the minus two seventy mark, you can
get him inside the distance sitting around plus one fifteen.
Speaker 5: I think that is an absolutely great price here.
Speaker 6: I don't think he if he wins this, which I
do believe he does, I don't see this going to
the scorecards here. I think Pereira puts it on him here.
You know, this is a great bounce back spot. So
I like Perera to get that finished in this fight.
Speaker 2: I mean, I watched Dacas on the regional scene and
he hasn't gotten better.
Speaker 5: He's like the same fighter. He's the same with this guy,
the same same whoa so yes.
Speaker 2: Yeah, if Pereira has a pulse, yes, he should get right.
Speaker 5: Let's if he tries here. If he tries here, he's
got a great chance. That's all I'm saying.
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's talk Austin Hubbard in Wrong Zoo. It's an
Austin Hubbard fight, so you know it's going the distance.
Wrong Zoo. Pretty incredible story. I like this guy. He's
twenty five years old, He's had like thirty fights. This
is a guy that comes from an orphanage where they
literally get dropped off as kids head and they get
trained to fight. Like here, we'll we'll feed you, we'll
give you shelter, we'll give you clothes. In exchange, you're
gonna fight later in life, and we get thirty percent
of your money. It's a wild story. I like where
he's going though. I think he's got talent. I think
he's got skill. I think he got started way too early,
but that's just the nature of what happens when we
come from this area. But how do you break down
this wrong Zoo and Hubbard? I like Zoo.
Speaker 6: Yeah, so you got wrong Zoo. Here, he's around minus
two fifty. The comeback you have Austin Hubbard, he's about
plus two five now, as you said, kids, twenty five
years old, thirty two professional fights. That is just off
the charts the amount of fights that he has had.
And we're definitely, as you're saying, he's growing up in
the cage and he's growing up on the job, and
you are seeing him consistently get better. He trained now
at CKB. I think that's definitely continuing to improve him
get his arsenal altogether here. And one of the big
things that he really showcased was his most recent fight
against Cody Steele, and Cody Steele kind of a rising guy,
you know, a rising prospect.
Speaker 5: There was some talk about him kind of having some.
Speaker 6: Opportunities here, but you know Wims, who goes in there
as a plus two to eighty underdog, absolutely dominates, outperforms
his number outlands steel one twenty seven to fifty nine
on significant strikes.
Speaker 5: Had a knock down, just dominated.
Speaker 6: And again at twenty five years old, you were going
to see massive improvements consistently with these guys, especially when
they're in the right camp. And they're in camp like
CKD and Hubbard. On the other side, this is another
guy having his second stint in the UFC. You know
they're they're bringing him in and they're shipping them to China,
and I think that this is going to be a bad.
Speaker 5: Situation for him.
Speaker 6: Hubbard on his first go round, he was three and
four in the UFC, they cut him, they put him back.
He's now one in three in the UFC. So it's
not that he's really getting much better either.
Speaker 5: Here. He's a journeyman fighter overall. On I think when
you look at.
Speaker 6: His skill set, he's slow, he's plotty, he doesn't really
do too much, you know, he's he's good everywhere, but
great at nothing, you know. And he's got you know,
he's gonna look the grind. He's gonna look to take
him down, grind him up against the fence. A thirty
one percent takedown success rate, I don't think that's gonna
work out well for him. The KB guys consistently get
better and better with their takedown defense, and wrong Zoo
on the other side, is just really better everywhere, better, striking,
faster hands. Takedown defense is at eighty four percent. So
I just think that he can keep the standing land
more the impactful shots, And that's kind of where I'm
going with this. And as you said, you know this
fite I do think goes the distance. I think this
is a spot where wrong Zoo really pushes that volume out.
He's always out volume a lot of his opponents. And
he again that's you know, sprawl and brawl, keep it
on the feet. And I just think when you're looking
at Hubbard, he has nine losses, six are by decision. Here,
I think he's got enough durability to kind of last
get this to the scorecards.
Speaker 5: Here.
Speaker 6: If you got wrong Zoo, you can get off the
minus two fifty number. You can get him at about
to pick them anywhere from plus one hundred minus one
zero five on the fight to go to the scorecards,
and he wins by decision. So I think wrongs you
win by decision here. I think he outlands them. And
I think that Hubbard survives this and and probably gets
cut at the end of this.
Speaker 5: But I do like wrongs you do to get the
job done.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, Hubbard. I mean, it's cutting season in UFC.
They're trimming down the roster. They got Contender series, they
got some guys that look really good.
Speaker 1: Totally, I believe, I agree.
Speaker 2: So we're not doing sell me. Dan is jumping on
a flight right after this I believe it's his honeymoon
and he doesn't avercate camera microphone, so does sell me today?
But Kyle's UFC Shanghai. What what do you have up
for everyone this weekend?
Speaker 6: Yes, so this week and I do have a five
percent play up. As Andy said, this is an early
early card here, three thirty something like that on the
East coast, So this can be one of those ones
where you're gonna be able to bet on Friday, wake
up with some profit in your account. And I think
we've got a good spot here, So check it out.
Wager talk dot com. Do you have two plays in there?
Speaker 5: Again?
Speaker 6: Always going to be adding as the closer fight night,
So check it out wager talk dot com.
Speaker 2: Kyle Anthony, let's cash on UFC Shanghai in the wee
hours of the morning. Thank you so much for joining us,
and we'll see you next week. Have a great weekend. Uh,
we're gonna do all around the world. At the end
of the show, we have Dave Mason and uh he's
a busy, busy man in his cubicle, which David still
cracks me up every single time. Uh, Happy NFL preseason,
Happy college football season. Interested how how things are going.
What you're what the handle has been on NFL preseason
compared to college football. Happy Thursday, my friend.
Speaker 1: Hey, happy Thursday. Thanks for having me.
Speaker 5: I mean, let me see here.
Speaker 1: I mean, the big action hasn't come in into college
football yet, even for this weekend's games.
Speaker 3: So let let's see here.
Speaker 7: I mean, overall, the bigger games in college football will
do more action. They'll do more action, but you know,
you get a lot sharp bets on the NFL preseason,
which really inflates the volume too. But overall the college
football games will do more action in the NFL preseason.
But but the NFL preseason still does really good good money.
I mean again, but again, like I said, there's just
so much sharp action on these NFL preseason games that
kind of inflates the volume because you know, they're they're
they're not you know, they're betting a lot more money
than the recreational guys.
Speaker 2: I'm assuming you guys had an incredible Week one of preseason.
All the line moves kind of backfired on everyone. How
was Week two for you guys?
Speaker 1: Actually we got crushed. I mean, okay, yeah, we lost.
I mean, I forget I was tweeting I was kind
of keeping score at a day by day basis. We
lost the first six days of preseason, and then we
won two in a row, and then we lost again.
So whatever that is, I guess it's what it's to
two and seven.
Speaker 5: I think from preseason games or something.
Speaker 1: I might be off. I might be off one or
two there. But I mean those you know, those odds moves,
Like I said, you know those odds moves. I mean,
the sharp guys are taking advantage of that. So you're
just getting so much like I click on our sharp
tab here and it's just like all these games is
have two way sharp action on it, you know, and
it's the the line moves are so violent and it's
just a race for information and it's so much easier
than ever to get information on these games. And you know,
we got one or two guys battling managing all these games,
battling all these sharps, getting all this information, and we're
moving off their stuff and next thing, you know, these
these odds move and they're flip. You know, one team
was minus three the open minus three and they close
plus four. I mean, it's just but you can get
middled left and right it's it's it's it's not fun.
We can't wait till the NFL regular season.
Speaker 2: Brent was asking, as they're more like just today, are
you going to take more handle on the a couple
of NFL preseason games or the baseball slate?
Speaker 1: It depends on baseball game, but you know the biggest
baseball games. Yeah, we'll do more. We'll do more voum
on them. But again that the limits are higher there too, right,
you know we're doing like fifteen thousand and you get
all that sharp guys that runs it up lower level,
you know, MLB games that aren't getting much interest. You'll
do more on the NFL preseason, but you know, overall
more on MLB. But it's not an exact sign.
Speaker 2: I'm looking forward to, Uh, to college football and NFL
Week one. What you guys open lines for Week one?
College football? Week one NFL? Have you seen any line
movements for sharp action on any of those games? Uh?
Speaker 8: Well, I mean for this weekend for college football, I'm
sharp the Stanford lust three and a half, West Kentucky
minus nine and a half, Western Kentucky.
Speaker 1: Under sixty one or more of WAHI under fifty one
and a half or more, you know next week. Not
a lot has come in yet. I mean there's been some,
but you know what, they're waiting for the limits to
go higher. You know, Minnesota nineteen minus sixteen and a half.
What's Colorado here in Colorado plus five. But again most
of that, you know, big sharp action will come in
next week as the limits go higher. As far as
the NFL, kind of same. I mean we've had we
get some early action, but once the limits get pumped
up in a week and two weeks and the rules
sharp backs coming. Let's see what I got here. Kate
c minus two and a half Giants plus seven was sharp,
buff bus pick was sharp. So here's another long bills
bills Now that's board. Yeah, build minus one minus one
oh five now minus one twelve.
Speaker 5: So there is some sharp stuff, but.
Speaker 1: Again most of it comes in week up, once the
limits get pumped up.
Speaker 2: All right, have you been betting anything these days?
Speaker 1: Uh?
Speaker 5: A little bit, not to.
Speaker 1: I just have a couple of play. I'm taking Iowa
State plus three Brian Ortage plus two thirty five at
UFC this weekend. I probably won't watch it, so I
kind of early well yeah, so early, yeah, right, I
won't go three thirty this morning, so.
Speaker 5: You know, I might be up for it.
Speaker 1: I might be it was a whole damn event. Who
knows what my insomnia is doing on Friday morning or
Saturday morning, wherever the hell it is.
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, yeah, you're right. It's either early Saturday morning
or late Friday night, depending on your sleep schedule. Here,
so remind us about the contest that you're running at
bet online.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, big contest here. We got two different survivor contests.
We got the traditional one that's a one million dollars
guaranteed prize pool. There's gonna be an overlay in that,
without a doubt, So you know what that means that
an overlay definitely get in it only thirty.
Speaker 2: Dollars for everyone. Describing overlay is.
Speaker 1: When we don't like collect the money enough. We don't
collect as much money as the prize pool is. So
you know, let's say the prize pools a million dollars,
but we only collect eight hundred thousand. That means there's
an overlay of two hundred thousand dollars. So it's kind
of helps you out with a mathematical advantage kind of thing, right,
So there will be an overlay. I'm ninety nine percent
sure that. So that's million dollars only thirty dollars er
inner numerous times at a discount. Then we had the
first time ever. We're gonna do it one hundred thousand
dollars Spread Survivor. Now, there's not going to be an
overlay in that. We kind of went low. It's our
first time. But we're gonna add there's gonna be no
rate though, so we're going to add every dollar onto
the prize pool. So if we collect two hundred grand,
that's going to be the prize pool. So so yeah,
get in those and that that's only twenty dollars and
I believe twenty or twenty five I forget and numerous
times for discounts. Spread Drivor. Obviously you know it's it's
is what it is. It's the same thing as Survivor,
except you're picking to get to Spread. So there's gonna
be a lot of carnage. There's no way in hell
that lasts the whole season.
Speaker 2: We have a very interesting comment that I want to
get your opinion on, David Oh boy uh okay, So
Dale puts in the chat in quotes sharps what a joke.
They don't win any more than squares. So when you
say it, use the word sharp. Are you saying that
they win more? Are you saying that they get the
line move better?
Speaker 1: I'm telling that, sir, is incorrect. I mean, I respectfully
disagree that young man or old man or whoever it is.
I mean, sharps are guys who win money long term
on sports bet I mean it happens. People say that
sharps don't exist is wrong. They do. They win long term,
they they get they beat the closing number. We respect
their actions. A lot of books don't take their action.
I mean you just look on Twitter. You look at
all these people complain and I got booked from the
I have banned from this book. I got banned from
that book. They limited me to a dollar. Why would
those books be limiting and kicking these people out if
if there were no such thing as sharps, a long
term winners. They exist, and there's more than ever. There's
more than ever because there's more information. There's all these
damn discord groups and everything sharing information and all betting
at once and send against and all this stuff. You know,
it's it's and there's different levels of sharps. You know,
there's originators who who originate the lines. We love those
guys because they help to shape those lines. Then there's
you know, steam Chaser's arbitrazed guides who are just you know,
fitting plus one oh one on one something at one
book and plus one oh one and something in our book,
and they're just you know, make trying to make a
penny on a dollar on all these on all these
massive volume bets. So there's you know, then there's the
bonus kind of guys. I don't really want to call
them sharp, but they're they're long time winners too. There's
different types. But yes, there are professional betters out there,
all right.
Speaker 2: There's anybody that would know it is it is Dave
Bason there so Dale there you go. Yeah, there's not
a lot of them. But but but there are sharps
out there. That's that's that's.
Speaker 1: Even r there was. And I wish I could sell
here and say, yeah, there are no such things as sharps,
and does everybody bring your action? Okay, limits are one
hundred thousand dollars on on ping pong. Let's let's go
at it, you know, but it's it's not the reality
we live in here, all right, one.
Speaker 2: Hundred thousand dollars limits in ping pong. Don't you threaten
me with a good time darts?
Speaker 1: Sorry dark, how about that?
Speaker 2: Listen a true story, Dave. I followed a guy who
bet Czechoslovakia and table tennis, and he got me banned
from several books.
Speaker 1: There you go, it's exactly mean out.
Speaker 2: He was lights out. Now I can't use those books anymore.
And he plays because everyone was getting banned. I miss
him so much, like take a pay cut. So all right,
Dave work, we find you on social media. He's a
great Dave is a great follow on social media.
Speaker 1: At Dave Mason bol come on over and say hello.
Speaker 2: All right, thank you so much, Dave. And man, we're
gonna get a lot of Dave Mason here coming forward
with football season. So all right, great comments, and honestly,
yeah and honestly, when Dave comes on, load up the questions.
He'll he'll he'll answer just about anything. So Brent, great, Brent.
He's a sharp. He goes five out of six every
day in a parlay nine winner. There you go, Brent,
Ore are in house sharp, Brent. That's a great comment.
So all right, let's do all around the world. I
will tell you guys, I have a w NBA prop
of the day that is up. We do not do
many w NBA plays for clients, this one is a
must add. Go grab that one. Tour Championship has started,
client place, I've already started, so if you missed out
on those, we're gonna profit during the day and then
we're gonna profit tonight. So WNB A prop is up.
Like I said, we're very low volume in WNBA when
we've hit sixty seven percent of our w NBA bets
since the start of August. So yeah, grab that, Grab
that w NBA best bet that's up. Am I doing
a live stream for PFL tonight? No, No, we're gonna
record UFC tonight and we'll get that up tomorrow here
on the wager Talk channel. But yeah, we're winning in
the shadows now, We're not doing a live show for PFL.
So all right, let's uh Andy said, will put his
company on Luke Littler. Depends on the matchup, Brett. If
I get a good matchup, I'll absolutely lay lay the
house on Luke Littler in the right format. All right,
let's go all around the world here and we got
a couple of NFL plays, and then we got a
soccer play that was on the wager Talk page. So
I thought that was a really good one. We have
two NFL preseason games tonight. Let's take a look at
two team totals. We're gonna go to the Steelers in
the Panthers, and I like the Panthers under fifteen and
a half on their team total. Quarterback situation is kind
of a preseason disaster for Carolina. Dalton is hurt now,
so young is not gonna get any playing type. So
Plumber was ten to fourteen for eighty three yards and
two interceptions. They scored three points last night. Back up
defense for the Steelers should be good enough to hold
them under two touchdowns. So I take the Panthers under
fifteen and a half Patriots and Giants. I like the
Giants over twenty one and a half. They set up
great for preseason because I got a lot of depth
at quarterback Wilson Dark Midston, DeVito. All quarterbacks with experience
are upside. They've scored thirty one and thirty four points
the first two games. Patriots held the opponents under their
total of the first two games, but they played no
good quarterbacks. No matter who the Giants put in, I
expect them to have success. And the Patriots do not
look like they're gonna play Drake May very much, so
expect extended possessions from the Giants. I like them over
twenty one and a half those year. Two NFL preseason
games for tonight and two team totals. We're also gonna
look at Chelsea at west Ham. Carmine likes Chelsea in regulation.
West Ham lost three nothing, three nil, sorry, three nil
to newly promoted Sunderland Chelsea in their last game. They
ended up with a draw, I believe, but they had
seventy one percent possession. They outshot the team nineteen to eleven,
So we're looking at that. It's a little bit juicy
around the minus one fifty, but we like Chelsea to
win in regulation. All right. That is gonna do it
for us today on a Thursday, Dan, have a blast,
my brother, enjoy your vacation, enjoy the time off. We're
gonna be back tomorrow with another episode of Wages Talk.
Today you got Steam Report. We're gonna go over a
huge loaded college football and NFL preseason Slate, so thank
you very much for joining us. Don't forget Flex picks
are up and that by September Get the rest of
August is an incredible special. You get free plays for
the rest of August. If you just buy September, you're
looking at less than seven bucks a day. It's on
the Deals Pay. It works for any handicapper, myself included.
Let's cash in WNBA tonight. Guys, Let's do it again
tomorrow and get you ready for the weekend. Hit the
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Blitz is coming up at one o'clock Eastern, so here
in about fifteen minutes The Blitz Brian Power, Ralph Michels,
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can jump on and ask them questions as well. You're
gonna get the best college football information. Cannot wait for
this one. I will probably be in the chat section
as well to pick those guys' brains and get as
much information as possible get us ready for college football.
So thank you very much to everyone in the chat
don't forget Blitz coming up after this. We'll see you
guys later. Good luck on your best today. Take care,