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<v Speaker 1>So yesterday I saw this news story and I want

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<v Speaker 1>to I want to just read part of it in

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<v Speaker 1>a dramatic way to bring my next guest onto the show.

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<v Speaker 1>It's from CBS News. Nearly four hundred scientists across the

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<v Speaker 1>United States were in four Monday afternoon that their services

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<v Speaker 1>were no longer needed to help write a major report

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<v Speaker 1>on climate change for the federal government. The report, known

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<v Speaker 1>as the National Climate Assessment, is a major publication produced

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<v Speaker 1>every four years that summarizes the impacts of climate change

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<v Speaker 1>in the United States, and it is congressionally mandated under

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<v Speaker 1>the Global Change Research Act of nineteen ninety. The sixth

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<v Speaker 1>edition is scheduled for publication in twenty twenty seven, and

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<v Speaker 1>preparations have been underway for months to meet their deadline.

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<v Speaker 2>And then it goes on from there.

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<v Speaker 1>But as I kept reading, the first person they got

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<v Speaker 1>a comment from was from the Environmental Defense Fund, So

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<v Speaker 1>already I knew exactly what the rest of the story

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<v Speaker 1>was going to say. Okay, And they go on to

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<v Speaker 1>quote climate scientists after climate scientists after climate scientists.

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<v Speaker 2>Doctor Robert Kopp, a climate.

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<v Speaker 1>Scientist and professors at rutgost University who was also working

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<v Speaker 1>on the current assessment said, I feel badly for the

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<v Speaker 1>federal leaders who have put a lot of time into this,

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<v Speaker 1>but to some extent, I think the writing was on

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<v Speaker 1>the wall when they.

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<v Speaker 2>Dismissed the support staff a few weeks ago.

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<v Speaker 1>I think now it's clear many of the authors would

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<v Speaker 1>like to see an up to date evidence based report.

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<v Speaker 2>Do they really though?

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<v Speaker 1>Joining me now from the Irrational Fear substack, doctor Matthew Willicky,

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<v Speaker 1>Doctor Matthew, Welcome back, first of all to the show.

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<v Speaker 1>It was very interesting that I saw this article and

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<v Speaker 1>then almost immediately saw your column from the other side.

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<v Speaker 1>Should we say welcome back my friend.

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<v Speaker 3>Thanks Mandy. I enjoyed you turned into I think like

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<v Speaker 3>a bit or englishly.

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<v Speaker 1>You know what though, that's my best dramatic reading voice.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it adds gravitas to whatever I'm reading.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, thanks for having me back.

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<v Speaker 3>You're absolutely right, though, I mean, this is kind of

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<v Speaker 3>peddled as a scientific document, and you can hear the

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<v Speaker 3>scientists saying that, you know, this is this is the science,

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<v Speaker 3>but it's not pure reviewed it. It does go through

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<v Speaker 3>no critical analysis, and when I looked at it, I

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<v Speaker 3>found blaring contradictions right inside of it. I mean, they showed,

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<v Speaker 3>for example, heat waves as the observable data, and to

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<v Speaker 3>my surprise, heat waves have gone down dramatically since two

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<v Speaker 3>thousand and two to twenty twenty one. In this time

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<v Speaker 3>period relative to their baseline, they had gone down. I

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<v Speaker 3>was like, oh, like, everywhere except the southeast, they've gone down.

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<v Speaker 3>And so then I scrolled down maybe another page or two,

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<v Speaker 3>and they had their projections of heat waves, and their.

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<v Speaker 4>Projections had it going up everywhere.

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<v Speaker 3>And so they're claiming the same thing has been happening

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<v Speaker 3>over the same time period, but the opposite result will

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<v Speaker 3>have And so then I was kind of shocked by that.

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<v Speaker 3>I was like, you're kind of contradictory, contradictory in your

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<v Speaker 3>own analysis. And so I went back to the very

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<v Speaker 3>first National Climate Assessment that came out in two thousand

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<v Speaker 3>and the biggest caveat on that, the large kind of

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<v Speaker 3>conclusion was that heat waves were going to increase and

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<v Speaker 3>that was going to have a huge societal impact. And

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<v Speaker 3>yet in the fifth assessment they came out in twenty

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<v Speaker 3>twenty three, they admit the observable data doesn't show that,

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<v Speaker 3>but they keep saying the same projection and the same

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<v Speaker 3>mantra so it's almost as if the observable data has

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<v Speaker 3>no meaning at all. There's just a narrative, and regardless

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<v Speaker 3>of what the data says, the narrative is what is pushed.

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<v Speaker 1>So okay, so let me go back to the first

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<v Speaker 1>thing that the example that you were giving, which is

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<v Speaker 1>they showed that for the last twenty years, heat waves

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<v Speaker 1>meaning periods of long extended heat in an area, have

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<v Speaker 1>actually been really flat. We haven't had a significant increase

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<v Speaker 1>in heat waves. But now in the next twenty years

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<v Speaker 1>they're saying, oh, heat waves are going to be off

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<v Speaker 1>the charts. But why did we have flat heat waves

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<v Speaker 1>in the first place. Do they even address that because

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<v Speaker 1>it sounded like you said, look, we have the same conditions,

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<v Speaker 1>but they're expecting a completely different result.

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<v Speaker 4>That's right. It gets even worse than that.

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<v Speaker 3>So they show in the National Climate Assessment, the fifth

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<v Speaker 3>edition that came out twenty twenty three, that in the southeast,

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<v Speaker 3>for example, there was eleven days less or over ninety

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<v Speaker 3>five degrees from the period of twenty and two to

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<v Speaker 3>twenty twenty one. Then happened in the baseline that they

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<v Speaker 3>had from nineteen oh one to nineteen sixty, So they've

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<v Speaker 3>showed a dramatic decrease in the time period. They're saying

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<v Speaker 3>that we are increasing emissions, land use changes are also

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<v Speaker 3>driving up climate change. So the factors that are that

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<v Speaker 3>are driving climate change are existing and accelerating. Yet we're

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<v Speaker 3>seeing a decrease in the amount of hot days. But

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<v Speaker 3>then they flip it on its head in one model,

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<v Speaker 3>even though they've made making the same predictions for twenty

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<v Speaker 3>five years now, the first assessment came out in two

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<v Speaker 3>thousand and getting it wrong. It's I mean, it's really

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<v Speaker 3>the definition of insanity. I mean, you're doing the same

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<v Speaker 3>thing over and over and expecting a different result and

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<v Speaker 3>just completely ignoring the observable data.

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<v Speaker 1>Maybe they're going with the blind squirrel finds a nut

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<v Speaker 1>theory or the broken clock is right twice a day theory,

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<v Speaker 1>Like if we just keep saying it, eventually it'll be

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<v Speaker 1>true and they'll be able to go say, see, we

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<v Speaker 1>knew it, that's what was going to happen.

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<v Speaker 3>I wish that was the case, because I mean, maybe

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<v Speaker 3>we could just kind of pass it off to kind

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<v Speaker 3>of ignorance.

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<v Speaker 4>But this is malice.

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<v Speaker 3>They these are the same people that benefit from funding

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<v Speaker 3>from making the government believe that there is a climate

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<v Speaker 3>crisis and funding this to the tune of billions, if

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<v Speaker 3>not hundreds of billions, if not trillions globally. And so

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<v Speaker 3>this is the same people that write it and it

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<v Speaker 3>ignore the observable data, realize that there is an incentive

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<v Speaker 3>for them to make sure they make it as as

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<v Speaker 3>crisis or as as extreme as possible, regardless of what

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<v Speaker 3>they did. Says So I wish it was I could

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<v Speaker 3>attribute it to ignorance, and maybe they're just missing some

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<v Speaker 3>of the data, but it just can't keep going on

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<v Speaker 3>and on like this without it being essentially I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>it's fraud.

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<v Speaker 4>There's no other way to put it.

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<v Speaker 3>You're talking about taking siphoning off billions of dollars when

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<v Speaker 3>the data says the exact opposite of what you're predicting.

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<v Speaker 1>The thing that's frustrating for me, and in the many

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<v Speaker 1>many years that I've been doing this show, I've spoken

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<v Speaker 1>with scientists who had alternative theories of why we were

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<v Speaker 1>in periods of warming. I mean they were everything from

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<v Speaker 1>the where we are in the ellipses around the sun

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<v Speaker 1>to different kind of sun variations that were not used

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<v Speaker 1>to taking into account, and they could not get money.

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<v Speaker 2>For their research.

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<v Speaker 1>They could not get any dollars because they weren't in

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<v Speaker 1>the dogma, and they would come on my show like

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<v Speaker 1>as a I don't want to say last resort, but

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<v Speaker 1>just to like shout into the ether, like, look, there's other.

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<v Speaker 2>Things that.

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<v Speaker 1>Make sense for the glare errors because you know we

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<v Speaker 1>and you've done this on your blog. You can go

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<v Speaker 1>back to nineteen ninety six and to your point, you

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<v Speaker 1>can show them over and over and over and over

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<v Speaker 1>again where they've gotten it wrong. But there are other

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<v Speaker 1>theories that their projections were more accurate, but they're not

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<v Speaker 1>as dire, they're not as scary. And you can't tax

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<v Speaker 1>the sun, right.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, that's the biggest one.

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<v Speaker 3>If it's something that we aren't producing in terms of

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<v Speaker 3>an industry or as a society, we can't tax it.

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<v Speaker 3>We can't go after it and regulate it. So water

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<v Speaker 3>vapor is the biggest one. Everybody ignores water vapor, the

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<v Speaker 3>IPCC ignores water vapor. That's by far the number one

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<v Speaker 3>greenhouse gas on the planet. Right, the sun, like you

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<v Speaker 3>mentioned solar variation, we don't really understand it. We've got

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<v Speaker 3>a couple decades, maybe five or six with satellites a

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<v Speaker 3>couple extra centuries of measurements before that.

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<v Speaker 4>The planet's four and a half billion years old.

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<v Speaker 3>We have a very tiny little subset to go on

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<v Speaker 3>to try to understand these one hundred thousand year or

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<v Speaker 3>maybe million year.

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<v Speaker 4>Cycles that we're going through.

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<v Speaker 3>And so it all comes back to how much can

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<v Speaker 3>policy get involved. And they realize they can't tax the sun,

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<v Speaker 3>like you said, so what can we kind of nitpick at?

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<v Speaker 4>Right, Let's go after CO two.

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<v Speaker 3>That's an easy one now, methane hitrosoxxide, right, And so

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<v Speaker 3>they just kind of pick down the line on things

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<v Speaker 3>that they can regulate. But we're really talking about third

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<v Speaker 3>maybe fourth order effects. So if you really think that

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<v Speaker 3>taxing CO two is going to change the weather, I've

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<v Speaker 3>got bad news for you because I really don't think

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<v Speaker 3>it will.

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<v Speaker 2>Let me ask you a question.

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<v Speaker 1>You may or may not know the answer to this,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's something that has been bugging me for so

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<v Speaker 1>long about the entire study of the arc of history

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<v Speaker 1>when it comes to climate, and we're told, and I

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<v Speaker 1>think the whole ice core thing is super cool, Like

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<v Speaker 1>they go and they drill these ice coores that are

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<v Speaker 1>a mile long, and then they pull them up and

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<v Speaker 1>they examine all the layers in the ice, and they

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<v Speaker 1>extrapolate out all this data from those ice ice samples.

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<v Speaker 1>But the thing that always gets me about that is

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<v Speaker 1>that they keep telling us we are in an unprecedented

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<v Speaker 1>period of warming. It's never warm this fast. Ever, We've

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<v Speaker 1>never had this kind of warming. Okay, so let's just

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<v Speaker 1>say we have before and all of the ice melted.

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<v Speaker 1>So we're looking at ice cores. How can we get

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<v Speaker 1>a true idea of what those ice cores may say

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<v Speaker 1>if we've had prior periods of rapid and intense warming

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<v Speaker 1>that destroyed the ice layers.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you see what I'm saying.

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<v Speaker 3>Absolutely So in places like Greenland, that's definitely a big

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<v Speaker 3>consideration because if you're not creating new ice, then you're destroying.

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<v Speaker 4>The core basically.

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<v Speaker 3>So we talk about this in sediment and geology. If

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<v Speaker 3>you're not depositing layers, then you're eroding them. Well, now

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<v Speaker 3>we have missing timeframes, we call them unconformities, and so

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<v Speaker 3>that's a definite consideration. So one of the things in Antarctica,

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<v Speaker 3>we're a little safer because we think that even the

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<v Speaker 3>warming there couldn't ever get it above freezing. But it's

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<v Speaker 3>a desert, so you don't have a lot of new

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<v Speaker 3>snow being deposited on top. So there's a lot of trickiness.

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<v Speaker 3>This is one of the reasons why I argue that

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<v Speaker 3>we don't really know the variations of climate in the

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<v Speaker 3>past on the century scale, right, that's just impossible because

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<v Speaker 3>everything gets blurred because of the things you're talking about.

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<v Speaker 3>What if you have a decade where there's no ice

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<v Speaker 3>forming in Greenland because it was super warm that decade

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<v Speaker 3>because of an ocean current or something like that, And

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<v Speaker 3>so the resolution for our past climate is really bad.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, we have really good update date information now,

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<v Speaker 3>but the claims that you hear about, oh, it's the

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<v Speaker 3>hottest year and one hundred and twenty thousand years, that

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<v Speaker 3>is absolutely absurd. I've never seen a climate scientist that

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<v Speaker 3>has any real worth in the field or is respected

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<v Speaker 3>ever make that claim.

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<v Speaker 1>And so this is it's like, how do you I

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<v Speaker 1>think that what's happening with the Trump administration and I

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<v Speaker 1>and this report, by the way, is congressionally required. So

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<v Speaker 1>what would you speculate, Matthew, would be the next steps here?

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<v Speaker 1>What would you think if they fired all the climate

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<v Speaker 1>scientists who are invested in making sure that it's crazy

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<v Speaker 1>who they hire now.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, did they get Judith Curry? Who do they?

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<v Speaker 3>I think she would be great. Doctor John Christy would

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<v Speaker 3>be great. There's a lot of great scientists. But I

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<v Speaker 3>think you just have to change the mission of the

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<v Speaker 3>report such that it is about the observable data, what

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<v Speaker 3>have we seen has occurred, and then a big reflection chapter.

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<v Speaker 3>What are the predictions we made in the past that

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<v Speaker 3>haven't come to fruition and how confident are we in

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<v Speaker 3>our future predictions. That's something that is just not done

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<v Speaker 3>in these reports. My whole argument in most of this

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<v Speaker 3>is that we have to focus on the observable data.

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<v Speaker 3>That's what's telling us how things are changing. Anybody can

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<v Speaker 3>tweak a model, anybody can tweak the knobs on the

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<v Speaker 3>computer on the keyboard and make a model basically give

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<v Speaker 3>you whatever you want.

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<v Speaker 4>We call it garbage in, garbage out.

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<v Speaker 3>But the observable data is the observable data, and we

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<v Speaker 3>have a lot of it, and so we should just

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<v Speaker 3>be focusing on that. And the narrative on that is

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<v Speaker 3>very different than the narrative and the projections and the

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<v Speaker 3>models that they're doing. So I'm more than happy to

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<v Speaker 3>keep a National Climate assessment if it focuses back on

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<v Speaker 3>observable data and also reflects back on the last four,

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<v Speaker 3>will I'll be five because it'd be National Climate Assessment

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<v Speaker 3>six that looks back at the last five and really

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<v Speaker 3>highlights how terrible the predictions and the models have been.

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<v Speaker 3>So we can have an honest conversation.

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<v Speaker 1>Noill, Matthew, let me ask you this because I just

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<v Speaker 1>got this text, and I think there's probably a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of people out here who feel this way. Hi, Andy,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm a fan of the show and consider myself a moderate,

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<v Speaker 1>but I feel that today's conversation with this climate denier

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<v Speaker 1>is quite dangerous. I may not be an expert on

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<v Speaker 1>this situation, but I can tell you anecdotally that since

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<v Speaker 1>I've been in Colorado since two thousand, we've had much

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<v Speaker 1>hotter temperatures, longer heat waves, and less rain. It doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>take a rocket scientist to know that climate change is real.

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<v Speaker 1>So I always respond to this in the same way,

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<v Speaker 1>and that is, of course, the climate is changing. It

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<v Speaker 1>has been changing since the beginning of time. We have

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<v Speaker 1>the Rocky Mountains because the climate has changed. We have

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<v Speaker 1>iceberg grooves on the bottom of the Black Sea, that

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<v Speaker 1>were just discovered because the climate is always changing. What

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<v Speaker 1>we're discussing here is the level of certainty about it

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<v Speaker 1>are being our fault and the accuracy of the data

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<v Speaker 1>and the projections that are being used to spend literally

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<v Speaker 1>trillions of dollars that are being inflated by scientists who

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<v Speaker 1>have an invested interest. I mean that's my take on that.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and I agree with you one hundred percent. I

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<v Speaker 3>would love to know where the listener lives. If they're

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<v Speaker 3>in a metropolis area. Since two thousand that has grown

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<v Speaker 3>quite a bit. I don't deny that the temperatures in

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<v Speaker 3>their area are warmer. When you replace a lot of

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<v Speaker 3>trees and grasses and prairie land with asphalt and buildings

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<v Speaker 3>and glass, you're going to warm the climate up in

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<v Speaker 3>that region, so that regional area will get hotter on

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<v Speaker 3>certain hot days. We call that the urban heat island effect.

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<v Speaker 3>The issue is is can you tax your way out

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<v Speaker 3>of that? Or can you regulate your way out of that.

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<v Speaker 3>You can dismantle the city, I guess you can start

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<v Speaker 3>taking down the skyscrapers or taking down the buildings and

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<v Speaker 3>getting rid of the roads, going back to dirt. I

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<v Speaker 3>don't think anybody's going to be for that. So there's

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<v Speaker 3>no denying that humans have an effect on their environment.

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<v Speaker 3>The question is is whether this has to do with

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<v Speaker 3>CO two and our greenhouse gases, or this has to

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<v Speaker 3>do with the natural urban environment that we've built around ourselves.

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<v Speaker 3>And I would argue that it's the urban heat island effect.

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<v Speaker 3>Definitely does make cities warmer than the surrounding regions. We've

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<v Speaker 3>seen that for a long time. But I just don't

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<v Speaker 3>see a way of getting around that unless we just

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<v Speaker 3>take apart the cities.

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<v Speaker 4>And nobody seems to be for that.

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<v Speaker 3>And so you know, we're conflating to problems or the

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<v Speaker 3>problem exists, but you're conflating the reason for that problem.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think that's an important distinction, right, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>where I want to know exactly what it impact we're

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<v Speaker 1>having on the climate. But what we've done is take

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<v Speaker 1>the question of what impact are we having on the climate,

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<v Speaker 1>or what other external circumstances could be happening to be

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<v Speaker 1>creating a climate situation, and we've turned it into your

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<v Speaker 1>car is the problem? Oh those cows there next, and

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to take away everything we need to have

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<v Speaker 1>a functioning modern society. Chasing renewable energy that is inherently unreliable.

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<v Speaker 1>So there's huge policy decisions that are being made. And

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<v Speaker 1>the point that Matthew makes, and he makes it brilliantly

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<v Speaker 1>on a substack irrational fear, is that we should be

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<v Speaker 1>looking at the hard data instead of speculating and guessing

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<v Speaker 1>without giving any you know, we never go back to

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<v Speaker 1>look and see how those old predictions turned out. You

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<v Speaker 1>would think that would be the first thing they would

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<v Speaker 1>do in order to hone future predictions, but it never

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<v Speaker 1>seems to happen. So that's what we're talking about. We're

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<v Speaker 1>not sitting here saying the Earth is not changing, and

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<v Speaker 1>we're not like knuckle draggers over I mean, we recognize

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<v Speaker 1>the changes, but we're discussing what's actually going on, because

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<v Speaker 1>in my mind, I would rather be investing trillions into

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<v Speaker 1>mitigating for communities that need it, you know what I'm saying, Like,

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<v Speaker 1>I'd rather assume when you look at the ancient civilizations

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<v Speaker 1>of the Aztecs and the Mayans, why did they disappear?

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<v Speaker 1>My guess is it got too hot there for them

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<v Speaker 1>to live and they moved on. But we don't talk

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<v Speaker 1>about things like that. We need to mitigate it instead

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<v Speaker 1>of trying to stop it, because it may be a

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<v Speaker 1>natural process that we have no way of controlling.

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<v Speaker 3>But we really are kind of repeating history because we're sacrificing.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, they used to make sacrifices of people and

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<v Speaker 3>young young women and things to the gods to change

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<v Speaker 3>the weather. We're essentially sacrificing industry. We're sacrificing our energy

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<v Speaker 3>industry to the hope or maybe the you know, the

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<v Speaker 3>god of energy such that it will change the weather

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<v Speaker 3>in the future. So history really does repeat itself. But

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<v Speaker 3>you're I agree with you on hundred percent. Be practical.

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<v Speaker 3>There are solutions out there. This idea that I think

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<v Speaker 3>it's ignorant to think that stasis is the goal that's

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<v Speaker 3>never been a part of the planet. There If we

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<v Speaker 3>just go back in history at any time, the planet

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<v Speaker 3>is not in stasis.

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<v Speaker 2>It's meaning the same meaning's yah.

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<v Speaker 3>It's always changing, and the ancient civilizations realized that and

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<v Speaker 3>they made sacrifices to the gods to hope it didn't change.

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<v Speaker 3>It's sad to think that we're just basically doing the

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<v Speaker 3>same thing, but with trillions of dollars and the one

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<v Speaker 3>industry that has given us the life that we afford today.

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<v Speaker 1>And to be clear, abundant energy is why our standard

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<v Speaker 1>of living has raised as rapidly and as completely, not

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<v Speaker 1>just in the United States, but we are in a

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<v Speaker 1>period of prosperity in the world right now. Even poor

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<v Speaker 1>nations are better off than they were one hundred years ago.

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<v Speaker 1>And then the number of people living in extreme poverty

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<v Speaker 1>has dramatically just dropped like a stone, all because of

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<v Speaker 1>cheap and abundant energy, and we are trying to undo

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<v Speaker 1>that now.

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<v Speaker 2>So that's why talking about it.

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<v Speaker 4>Yep.

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<v Speaker 3>I used to teach a course at at University Alabama

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<v Speaker 3>called sustainability, and you can tie energy to education, to

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<v Speaker 3>fertility rates, going down to equality, to equality of women.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, there's so many things.

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<v Speaker 3>That tie back to the infrastructure that energy provides for you,

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<v Speaker 3>and that's what they're attacking. So it's really the fundamental

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<v Speaker 3>fabric that has provided, you know, the living standards that

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<v Speaker 3>we appreciate today.

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<v Speaker 1>Doctor Matthew Willicky is am I saying your last name right,

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<v Speaker 1>is it Whylicky? Yeah? I am I.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, We'll just go with it.

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<v Speaker 1>He has a fantastic substack called irrational fear. He doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>just talk about climate science. He talks about all kinds

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<v Speaker 1>of science.

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<v Speaker 2>So if you ever just.

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<v Speaker 1>Want to kind of go and get a reality check,

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<v Speaker 1>I would highly recommend a subscription. You can find it

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<v Speaker 1>on the blog today at mandy'sblog dot com.

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<v Speaker 2>Great conversation.

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<v Speaker 1>I find this stuff fascinating and I am interested to

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<v Speaker 1>see who ends up writing this report because I don't

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<v Speaker 1>know if you saw this, but the NIH just put

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<v Speaker 1>out their own report about gender or firm and care

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<v Speaker 1>for kids that is.

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<v Speaker 2>Sure to cause a star.

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<v Speaker 1>Let me just say that I didn't have it on

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<v Speaker 1>the blog today because I haven't read it.

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<v Speaker 2>It's four hundred Actually I did put it on the blog.

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<v Speaker 2>It's four hundred pages.

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<v Speaker 1>But this is an administration that's not afraid to say

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<v Speaker 1>the standard dogma is not where we're gonna stay because

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<v Speaker 1>it's not right.

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<v Speaker 2>And we'll see what happens next.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, all right, thanks so much, Matthew. It's good to

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<v Speaker 1>see you again, and I'm sure we'll talk again soon.

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<v Speaker 2>All right.

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<v Speaker 1>That is doctor Matthew Willicky from the Irrational Fear substack