Speaker 1: You're alive.
Speaker 2: Welcome in to the opening line report.
Speaker 3: Kelly Stewart here joined each and every Monday Morning, but
Teddy covers eleven AM Eastern here over in Florida, eight
and AM Pacific over there in Las Vegas, and we're
gonna get right into this week. One card, Teddy. These
lines have been out for months. I got this really
cool prop that I was so excited about using because
emergency betting alerts, so that we can let you guys
know that you need to be getting in your bets now.
Speaker 2: But Teddy, this week maybe a little light because we
have a lot of stale lines.
Speaker 1: Yeah, though, I mean two lines just move so we'll
talk about it or in the process of moving. So,
I mean, Monday morning is betting time. And obviously, of
all the shows that we do this year, this is
going to be the show with the least action going
on while we're live on air. The reason that we're
going we would pushed the show an hour earlier this
year is that we could capture these line moves in
real time. We could give you a little heads up,
perhaps ahead of time on a handful of these That's
the point of the emergency bed alerts. Is to make
sure that if you want sade ay or total A,
you can get it at the current number that's not
likely to be there much longer. But when we're talking
about lines that have been out since May, obviously for
today on labor and then it's also now a national holiday,
you know it's not going to be a day where
the screen's lighten up all the time. But I just
saw a little bit of movement on two games, so
we'll talk about it when we get to them.
Speaker 2: Amazing.
Speaker 1: That's a curious note. But starting next Monday, all right, where
it's not a national holiday and all the lines are
going to be you know, the virgin numbers that we
get to attack right away, we'll start be having emergency
beting alerts in bunches. So next week should be a
whole lot of fun. Today should be a whole lot
of fun. We're gonna talk about what happened this preseason,
how it affects the number, some of the long term
trends and angles for week one, and let's see if
we can.
Speaker 3: Teddy, I may even throwing a little survivor talk for
all of the contest people out there, because I think
Week one is exceptionally hard and maybe I need some
advice on who might not lose their game as a
touchdown favorite. Here, all right, guys, get up in your
odds screen. Whether that's odds Logic, you can use odds
Logic dot com backslash Kelly Vegas for a week trial,
or you can go to the free odd screen on
wager talk dot com so you guys can follow along
with what Teddy and I are talking about in terms
of these line moves. Thursday Night Football, Teddy Dallas Philadelphia.
We didn't see Dak Prescott or Jalen Hurts play a
single down in preseason.
Speaker 2: We have no micaeh Parsons. Now for the Dallas defense.
Break down this game.
Speaker 3: For me because it sure looks real easy to tease
Philadelphia this week.
Speaker 1: So if you don't have, by the way, an odds
Logic live odds screen can be talking about going and
follow the games in rotation order. Get one right now.
You get a free seven day trial, get you through
until next Monday. So it's an advantage to do it
on a Monday in that sense. Oddslogic dot Com backslash
Teddy gets your free seven day all access playing a
simple again odds Logic dot com, backslash Teddy or just
visit thought dot com and then check it out. It
really is a good live odds product. And again I'm
seeing on x now more and more people talking about it,
more and more people saying this is the best live
odds product out there. So I'm impressed with what they've
done behind the scenes with odds Logic and our live
odds product with Dallas and Philadelphia. So starting next week,
I'll have the look ahead line, I'll have my powering line,
and I'll have where it opened and the current number.
So I give out four sets of lines for every game.
For today, we didn't have a look ahead line, so
you don't get four sets of lines. That being said,
my powering number for Dallas Philly is Philly minus eight.
The markets opened this game. It was seven all summer,
then moved down to six and a half in August.
This past week it moved back up to seven and
then up to seven and a half at a lot
of book after the micup Parsons trade. Now you talked
about it, Kel neither quarterback played a down in preseason,
Prescott or Hurts, and in general, the markets like a
divisional underdogs b divisional unders in Week one. This is
just for Week one, but divisional dogs and divisual unders
and divisional home dogs in particular, but unders and dogs
in these division games, we would expect the money to flow.
This is going to be a theme of today's show.
The long term trends show Week one divisional games day
under and the long term trends say divisional underdogs, particularly
home underdogs in week one, are worthy of. Look look
that said this game with the divisional underdog and has
been trending over the toll was forty six and a
half all summer moved up. It's called it forty seven
and a half this past week after the Parsons trade.
And this has a lot to do with what, Hey,
we got betteran quarterbacks, So you're you're not worried about
guys that didn't see the field as much, but b
you have concerns a little bit about both these defenses
Dallas without Parsons and filled it up with a lot
of new you know, people are talking about how minutes,
how much change the Eagles defense had in the off
season when it came to jessing some of the veterans
and giving more playing time from the newcomers. So Phillies
defense is younger than it was when they won the
Super Bowl last February, and Dallas's defense has their fair
share of question marks. Last year, Philly won thirty four
to six and forty one to seven. They had no
problem moving the ball against Dallas in either meeting. They
had no problem stopping Dallas and either meeting. That being said,
Dak Prescott didn't play anither game. It was Cooper Rush
both time. In twenty two and twenty three, Dallas and
Philly split the two meetings.
Speaker 3: Sorry, Jeddy, I was opening up my Survivor spreadsheet because
I have three games on it.
Speaker 2: And this was one of them. Philadelphia lose this game.
Speaker 1: So if we're gonna talk Survivor, in my mind, there's
all there's one play to make a Survivor this week.
And okay, I'm a proponent of I'm not saving fifty teams.
You know, I'm not trying to save I want to
I'd rather win. What it's seventy percent of the field
went out in Week one last year or something, and
he was insane, insane, So, but that cannon does happen
the one team that I'm playing, if I have a
survivor entry this week. Is Denver. Okay, right, Denver's the choice.
Denver's not losing that game in my opinion.
Speaker 2: Okay, but the whole world's going to be on them,
and we'll get to them here in a little bit.
Speaker 1: Agree. Agree, I mean that's the issue with it. But Denver,
if you're looking for the safest pick, it's hard for
me to envision a scenario. I mean, they could strange things.
You know, anything can happen any given NFL Sunday, you know,
but of all the underdogs Tennessees, though, it's hard for
me to picture cam Ward leading the Titans to victory
in this first game in that environment and a rookie year.
And we'll talk about some of the rookie records and
why you don't bet on rookie quarterbacks first road game.
Although Caleb Williams did win this first road game last
year against Tennessee. That being said, I don't think he
had one hundred yards passing in that ball game. It
wasn't a whole lot to do with the offense.
Speaker 2: I was on Tennessee. Let's not remind me of that.
That was very painful.
Speaker 3: Our producer John Hugland today while Dan is out on
his honeymoon is laughing and enjoying my suffering, because I'm
pretty sure he enjoyed me having Tennessee in that one.
Speaker 2: Let's go to.
Speaker 3: Friday night, another divisional matchup AFC West Chiefs on the
road at the Chargers. You just mentioned we're looking at
divisional home underdogs and divisional unders.
Speaker 2: Talk to me about this one now.
Speaker 1: The Chargers are not a divisional home underdog. This game
is being played in South Paulo, Brazil, so it is
a long long way from LA. My powering number has
Kansas City minus three and a half in this ballgame.
This line was basically two and a half all summer.
It moved to minus three the first week of August
when Rashan It was right after a show Slater got
hurt left tackle for the Chargers, the bookend left tackle
who's supposed to be protecting Justin Herbert's blindside all season. Instead,
he tore his pateeller tendon and he's out for the year.
Total has bounced between forty five and forty six basically
all summer. Sitting right now, we'll call it forty five
and a half. As the prevailing number Kansas City is
seven and oh straight up the last seven meetings. If
you took plus three with the Chargers in those seven
meetings that the Chiefs have won all of them, well,
five of the seven have been decided by a field
goal or less or an overtime, so you've done just
fine taken plus three, even though the Chiefs have won
all these ballgames. And of course, what Kansas City has
been able to do in the one score games is incredible.
It's never been done before. Obviously, an NFL record seventeen
and oh in games decided by one score. It includes
five games from twenty twenty three, eleven from the regular
season last year, and then that thirty two to twenty
nine win over the Bills in the AF Championship Game.
Mahomes and Reed and company have found ways to win
every close game for a long time. Again, we're talking
back to twenty twenty three. That being said super Bowl
losers in Week one, five and nineteen the last twenty
four seasons. But let's break that down all right. There
was an OH to twelve run and then a five
and seven run. The five and seven runs are more recent,
so five and nineteen over the last twenty four years,
but just five and seven over the last twelve, which
says to me, yeah, you can make a case for
Kansas City if you want to. Five and seven not
going to talk me off something as much as five
and nineteen is going to. And of course we talk
about quarterbacks that played in preseason, quarterbacks that didn't. Patrick
Mahomes played in August, Justin Herbert did not advantage Kansas
City when it comes to week one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Teddy playing ants that super Ball loser has been
a fun one for myself. Let's get into Sunday football. Well,
Pittsburgh Steelers at the New York Jets. It's kind of
break this one down for me. These are two teams
I think are going to take steps back. I know
that sounds impossible for the Jets to take a further
step back. Aaron Rodgers, same age as me, Justin Fields, Well,
here you go.
Speaker 1: So my powering number for the game Pittsburgh minus two
and a half. This line opened three, It went down
to two and a half in July, back up to
three in August, back down to two and a half.
At a lot of books, this is really a split
line right now. You can take plus three, you can
lay minus two and a half. That's a great scenario
for betters. Whichever side you're on. This is one of
those games. If it lands three, you can't be losing this,
all right, And if you have Pittsburgh, you can't be
pushing that. If you like the Steelers, there are enough
two and a half's out there to get one. If
you like the Jets, there are enough plus threes out
there to find one. If you can't find and both
two and a half and three right now, you need
more books. You know you need to. And that's why
I recommend to everyone, whatever state you're in, every single
available sports books should be in a sports where you've
an account that I moved to Las Vegas, not specifically,
but one of the big reasons why I moved to
Las Vegas in nineteen ninety eight was because I got
sick of my bookie and this book he ripped me
off half points here, a half points there. Why don't
I just have opportunities to better all the casinos and
you end up winning games by half point instead of
losing games by half point in that regard, and this
is one of those games you have to lay two
and a half. If you want the Steelers, you have
to take three if you want the New York Jets.
There is no more key number than the number of
three in the NFL. Tomlin eleven six and one straight
up in Week one eighteen previous seasons. He's been pretty
good about having his team ready, the total basically sitting
at thirty eight and a half since July. The Jets
office didn't work in the preseason. Aaron Rodgers and Justin
Field's a rare scenario where both quarterbacks played for the
opposite team. Last year, Field's played the preseason, Rogers did not.
He was not good in the regular season opener last
year at San Francisco after not playing in the preseason.
Then again, San Francisco's pretty good at least they were
in Week one a year ago, But advantage the Jets
when it comes to which quarterback has gotten playing time
in August. That being said, the playing time Justin Fields
got in August wasn't pretty. The Jets passing game basically
didn't work when he was on the field.
Speaker 3: Teddy, let's talk teaser real quick. Is this a good
scenario to bet? The Jets and a teaser.
Speaker 2: Somewhat of a low total.
Speaker 3: It's not one of the lower totals, but for the
first week it is. Is this something we get jets
over a touchdown and it's worth a look.
Speaker 1: I will not bet a single teaser. Week one. Teasers
are at okay, so teasers, this is there is something
that I don't hear what people talking about. Teasers are
at their best when the lines are at their sharpest. Okay,
week one, that's what you want. When the lines are
as tight as they can be, the six points really
matter week one. How many lines when we look up
back a month from now, we're gonna be like, wow,
that line was. I can't believe that number was there
in Week one. You know, we see that all the time.
We have a peep think about college football this weekend.
All the teams we said, oh, this team's gonna be
great and they're not. And teams that we thought were
gonna be off of Like wow, I can't believe Kennessas
State held wake to ten points. You know, this is
supposed to be a so you see stuff the first
week that you're not expecting. There's gonna be upsets. There's
a reason that seventy percent of the field got knocked
out in Survivor last year. So I'm not making one
teaser now, and especially with minus one thirty minus one
thirty five, I'm not making a teaser this week. You
can make all you want, but there's not a chance
I'm making a Week three, Week four, we start talking
about teasers Week one, Week two, not so much for me.
Speaker 3: All right, let's talk about the Dolphins and Colts. Let
me get my Odds logic screen back up.
Speaker 2: Over in here. One and a half one pretty.
Speaker 3: Much across the board, there's a couple one and a
halves here for the Colts, Danny Dimes getting the nod
there to do. They have him wrapped in plastic and
bubble wrap to save him for the entire season. We're
gonna find out. Talk to me about this week one
line and who you like in this game, or is
this just another game that maybe it's not worth a look.
Speaker 1: So one last point about teasers, it's at the end
of the season, the same way we talk about week
seventeen Week eighteen of the regular season, where you get
a little bit more variance for what teams are going
to show up and which teams aren't. That's another time
of the year. The first couple of weeks, the last
couple of weeks. I avoid teasers like the plague middle
of the season, optimal beginning in the end, not so
much for the Dolphins and the Colts. Again, I'm not
giving an emergency betting alert here, but we've just seen
some money, some sharp money for Miami this morning, in
the last hour, we've seen a little bit of Dolphins money,
not a ton, a little bit. My power number for
the game Indye minus one. And we look at the
number this year, I mean Danny Dimes and twoa both
played in the preseason. This is a fun line to
talk about. What happened. Indy was minus one at the open.
Then Miami kind of took a little bit of money.
They were minus one by June. And when I say
the open, these lines opened in May around when the draft,
A little bit after the Draft, I believe it was,
but in general, we're talking about lines that opened in May.
So Indies minus want at the Open, then Miami was
minus one by June. Then it went to Pick, then
it went to Colts one and a half minus two,
just around the time of the Jalen Ramsey trade. And
now we're seeing a little bit of Miami money, pushing
it back down to one slash one and a half.
I'm even seeing some half out there. That being said,
the total of it sitting in forty seven all summer
really hasn't moved. I'm seeing some forty sevens juice to
the under. I'm seeing a couple of forty six and
a half's out there right now. So we're seeing a
little bit of under money and two AA action on
the side, with the latest action coming towards Miami. The
Colts last Week one win, and this is one of
those bizarre anomalies, not like it need has been a
bottom feeder this whole time. They haven't won in Week
one since twenty and thirteen, ten and one straight up,
and they're laying in this game. So and obviously Steichen
has been there the whole time, but week ones haven't
been his strong point necessarily. The Dolphins are four and
oh straight up in Week one since twenty twenty one,
two and zero under McDaniel, so they've been pretty good,
while the Colts have been pretty bad as a franchise
in this role in recent years.
Speaker 3: All Right, Panthers, Jaguars, we've kind of seen some interesting
line movement in this one. What's up three across the
board here for Jacksonville forty six and a half. Teddy
over that key number of three. I'm buying Carolina this year.
You and I talked about this team during the divisional previews.
We talked about this team way back in June. Do
you think this is going to be a tighter game
or the market's correct saying now Jacksonville is a better team.
Speaker 2: Move this one to three.
Speaker 1: And just this morning, it's really interesting. We've seen some
money for the under forty six and a half. Now
the pretty much the number everywhere my powering number for
the game. And again I'll give you my powering number.
This is just my personally. They do not factor in situations,
which matters later in the season. This is just team
A versus Team B factor in home field. My numbers
Jags four over the Panthers. So I'm perhaps not as
high on Carolina as you are. I still got Carolina
ranked as one of the worst teams in the league.
Line sat at two and a half all summer, popped
up to three in the last week. The total was
forty five and a half. For much of August. It's
been bet up since now we're seeing perhaps a little
buyback on that. Trevor and Bryce both played in the preseason,
so we've seen Lawrence and Young get their snaps and
that's a positive sign for Week one over the positive
signed for Week one teams Dave Canalis. Let's see last
year opening Day forty seven to ten, the Panthers loss,
and they lost to a Saints team that was awful,
So Canalis did not have them ready on opening Day
last year. Liam Cohen his first game, first year head coach,
and that's more as much more a fifty to fifty proposition.
We talked about the first year, first time head coaches
in their first home game as favorites. All of that,
it's it's not it's not a clear prevailing trend for
teams for guys like Cohen. That being said, you know,
it's three pretty much painted across the board right now,
and that total forty six and a half. So any
you say, oh, I could have lay two and a
half with Jacksonville. I could have laid to and a
half with Jacksonville. You know this is a week where
you just I don't freak out if I missed a
number back in May. It is what it is, and
to two and a half to three. We talk about
how important it is when you're laying three as opposed
to lay in two and a half. It's never gonna
cost you a loss. It can cost you a win
when it lands three because you're right on the number,
but it's not gonna cost you the extra juice that'll
loss it. A push never kills you. You know, some
betters hate pushes. Chart betters don't mind pushes at a
ottot mind push. Anytime I get a push, fine good.
I did a good job shopping the number, and I
don't complain when a game ends up in a tie
against the spread soddy.
Speaker 3: I know this is an NFL show, but I am
going to complain when it ends up in a tie
when I bet it early in the week. Let's just yeah, TOLDO,
I just waited for it to go back up, which
I didn't think it was going to go back up.
I got plus end up as a push went back up.
So those types of pushes, I think can be a
little frustrating. Again, I'll take the push. Just trying to
read these markets. Do you have any advice, whether it's
college football, NFL, trying to read those markets. You mentioned
you didn't think it was going to go back up
either yet than it did, And at that point, I've
got a bad number in pocket.
Speaker 2: I'm not going to re bet it at nine and
a half knowing, and.
Speaker 1: So college football is more difficult to predict to an NFL.
But I guess what we saw was steady Toledo money
and then some of there. But some of that was
buyback and maybe some of the like like that type
of move wouldn't necessarily happen week two, week three, week four,
but that was a line that had been pounded all summer,
so I don't even know that it was a legit move.
I think it was some buyback people that had they
and they it was a good buyback for them. They
catched the middle.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I hope somebody got the middle.
Speaker 1: I mean to hit the post on the one side,
but that's fine, you know.
Speaker 3: Okay, let's get into another divisional matchup here. We've got
the New York Giants versus the Washington no longer football team.
This one I think was pretty much seven all summer,
and now we're seeing it flipped, at least on the
odds logic screen six even five and a halfs hard
Rock and a couple other Sharper super Book five and
a half, Heritage five and a half totals coming down
as well, forty five and a half. Here, let's kind
of break down these two teams. I know people are
expecting Washington to be improved, right, but we have Jaden
Daniels in his second year. Talk to me about those
sophomore quarterbacks and what defensive coordinators have in store for
them their second year. I know we've seen some of
these guys kind of superseded expectations, but we typically see
a regression.
Speaker 1: Sure. So, and again, if you missed last week's show,
we went through every team, all thirty two teams by
division and talked about previews, what we thought was going
to happen this year, talked about some of the divisional odds.
You know, the focus on today's show is much more
about where the line is, where it's going, as opposed
to breaking down what we expect to see from the
likes of Daniels and Russell Wilson this year. That being said, so,
Washington made a bunch of win now moves in the offseason.
All right, there's certainly a team that they're when you
have the quarterback on the rookie deal where you're not
paying the QB, you have money to pay elsewhere, and
when you have that opportunity to sign veterans, that's exactly
what Washington did. That being said, when you look at
what happened to Washing in last year, they were a
team that absolutely feasted on the week all regular season,
now not in the postseason posting. They were good enough
to beat teams, and they sound supremely confident when you
talk about this squad and read the quotes coming out
of Washington. They're a team that expects to win this year.
But obviously their expectations now where they weren't a year ago,
and certainly the Commander's schedule in twenty twenty five is
significantly more difficult than it was in twenty twenty four.
My powering number for the game is Washington minus six.
The Giants had a strong preseason three and zero against
the spread, e stored thirty plus in every game. Washington
got annihilated in every game in the preseason ozho and
three against the spread non competitive. That said, dan Quinn
didn't care, and the Giants had a quarterback rotation that
any preseason team would love to have and they all
got playing time. Now there were some seven and a
half at the open in this ball game. It explains
why you know the preseason suff this line has moved
because of the preseason where the Giants look good and
Washington didn't. And now we've seen it from seven and
a half as low as five and a half. Of
some spots you know in the seven halfs were gone
by the end of May. It's not overstate them, but
six and a half all summer now six now the
leading indicator books down to five and a half divisional games,
we expect dog money, we expect under money total forty
six and a half all summer in forty six. Now
we're looking at forty five and a halfs for this
boll game at a lot of books. So we've seen
dog money and under money, which what we expected these games.
Russell Wilson played in August. Jing Daniels did see some
action in Week two against the Bengals. That be said
he didn't throw a pass and said he dropped back
and ended up scrambling for a touchdown. So that's one
of those rare situations where yeah, do we count that
as date Jane Daniels playing. Yes, we knew even though
we didn't throw a pass this very limited time on
the field in August.
Speaker 3: All right, Teddy, let everybody know what you've got up
over at wager talk dot com. You already mentioned we
did some videos in June and July. Do you guys
want to go back in the wager talk YouTube channel.
Check those out. You guys can see all of the
reports that Teddy did at wagertalk dot com as well.
Speaker 2: A Teddy, you have absolutely crushed those.
Speaker 3: Kind of break those down for everybody to let them
know if they're looking to purchase what they can expect.
Speaker 1: So Week one over the last ten years, I have
thirty wins and eleven losses for the clients. You know,
I'm not putting out a ton of plays and average
a four per year, but I've hit too close to
three out of four of them seventy three percent over
the last ten years. I like Week one. Obviously, we
do our work over the summer. We pay attentional lines.
I already have I think three plays posted. I'm waiting
on the big one because I'm waiting for a number
and we haven't gotten it yet. And if we don't
get it. I'm not going to play at large, but
I expect to have at least one more this week.
So take advantage the NFL Win Report. We put out
part two last week with just a single ad, but
it was one that at the end of the preseason
and post cuts it made. It made a ton of
sense that the number wasn't where it should be. I'm
pretty confident that play. We'll talk about that team in
just a minute or two. Uh, but that's available on
my page one, O, three and fifty two. That's a
twenty four year track record, seventeen and four with the
five percent pig tickets. I take this stuff seriously. I
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So check it out, wt Dot, buzzbackslash TC and we
got great packs. Its great offers if you want to
get on board. And I always encourage people, don't buy
a play, buy a package. Let's partner up. Let's see
we can do this football season. I'm expecting to make
us some money starting right here in Week one.
Speaker 3: All right, Teddy, Cleveland just looks abysmal. Cincinnati a five
and a half point road favorite in four and a
half here in Florida at the hard Rock. That's a
little perplexing. Forty eight is the highest on the Odds
lodge of screen. We're pretty much painted forty seven and
a half here across the board. Talk to me about
these types of lines. I always love looking at that
home underdog plus five and a half.
Speaker 2: It's just the fish.
Speaker 3: I swear this is the fishiest line in the NFL.
People think I'm crazy. Maybe I should ask Ralph to
pull the long term data for me, but I'm gonna
be on the Browns week one.
Speaker 1: Tell me I'm crazy, Okay, you're crazy, okay, and I'll
tell you why you're crazy. All right, You're Craig. Craig.
Divisional game. So let's start this my powering number. And
I'm not enamored with Cincinnati, and in particular, I parbaty number.
The game is still six and a half for the
Bengals over the Browns. I'll tell you why this line
is low and why it's misleading. All right, Divisional game.
We expect money for the dog and the under has
been sitting five and a half. Six really hasn't moved
much since the opener back in May. Total forty four
and a half. Sorry, forty four forty seven a half.
That's my TYPEO forty seven a HALFS has been a slow,
steady flow of over money. The markets don't trust the
Cincinnati defense. They got gashed in the preseason. They were
bad last year. But this is what the markets are
missing in terms of the Cincinnati's defense. Every quote coming
out of the Bengals camp was we're not showing anything
from our brand new defense and bringing out Golden from
Notre Dame. Notre Dames defense wasn't as good yesterday. Did
you notice bringing out Golden? And they didn't do anything
in August. They didn't show anything to be basic vanilla
coverage it so everyone's saying the same Bengals defense as
last year, the same Bengals defense as last year. I
don't think it is, but they looked and they got
gashed in August. I think they'll be better in September.
I do legitimately better, and I think the markets are
missing the nuance of what we saw from Cincinnati this summer.
And Flacco is certainly an over quarterback for Cleveland. Flaco
was a guy who's gonna chuck it up right. Head
receivers make plays, does. Cleveland had many receivers that can
make plays. I haven't seen any. Two meetings last year,
Cincinnati covered minus five and minus sorry, minus five and
a half and minus ten. Both games stayed under. This
has been a very under series, only one over in
this series since twenty twenty one, five to one and
one to the under the last seven. Flacco did get
a little bit of playing time against the Rams a
week three of the preseason. Burrow saw got plenty of
and Burrow was in multiple games. The boy that offense
looked good with Burrow on the field the first two weeks.
So if you like Cincinnati in theory, you're getting a
bargain price because the wise guys don't trust their defense.
Their defense might be better than last year. It might
be better than they looked. That being said, and the
Bengals are a team. The depth isn't there for Cincinnati.
They're probably gonna be at their best in September. You know,
they played off. They paid all their stars, which means
the bottom of this roster is dicey. So Cincinnati, while healthy,
will be a bet on team. We'll see how healthy
theyst day. Because the backups on this squad leave something
to be desired on both sides of the football.
Speaker 3: I just wanted to take a moment to thank all
of you guys for hanging out with us here on
Labor Day Monday. Teddy and I are gonna be here
every single Monday. Almost two thousand people watching on my
ex almost a thousand on wager talking, almost a thousand
live on the YouTube channel. So shout out to all
of you guys. Jump in, join the comments section. It's
rowdy already, Teddy scolding me. People are appalled the fact
that Teddy would scold me. Guys, I deserve to be
scolded a lot after my college football picks this weekend.
That being said, Teddy, let's get right back into some
more NFL Vegas New England. Okay, I'm gonna start off
by saying this. I considered zigging, not zagging with the
Survivor pick and going New England. This is gonna be
one of the few times they are favorite this year.
Line was three all summer. Now of a sudden two
and a half start popping up. Who No, I don't
think I have the guts to go with the Patriots.
With Mike Rabel in his debut there in New England
talk to me about this game.
Speaker 1: So when I scold you, Kelly, I scolled you with love.
And I'm a little bitch when it comes to this
show in general. I'm a bitch when you know, I'm like,
I want to do it this way, don't. I want
to talk about it my way. It's okay, It's what
I do, and that's why sometimes it's difficult to find
people that want to work with me. That being said,
for the Raiders and the Patriots, my powering number in
New England to slash two and a half. It's actually
two and a quarter. For this boggab The line was
three all summer. The two and a half have been
popping the last couple of days, total from forty four
down to forty two. Last night it was forty three.
Let's do one emergency betty alert. Let's do it. Anybody,
we got noise, we got flat there we go okay, yeah,
no where.
Speaker 2: So we okay?
Speaker 3: So the comments section said they wanted to go back
to the Waynes world, So we.
Speaker 2: Got to discuss. You guys have to tell us how
you want to do the emergency betting alerts.
Speaker 3: Because Teddy did not like Week one Dan's choice of audio.
We're gonna, we're gonna, we're gonna get through some growing pains. Okay, guys,
we're gonna work it through this together. You guys tell
us the kind of audio you want to hear. I
thought the headline was a little jarring. It reminded me
of alarm clock too early in the morning out.
Speaker 2: There in the West coast. But we do have props.
Speaker 3: So anytime you guys see one of these, that means
it is time to get up in your odd screen,
open your sports books.
Speaker 2: Teddy has an emergency betting alert for you.
Speaker 1: If you like the Raiders Patriots over bet it right now,
sooner rather than later. Okay, this and again, so we
talk about where the number is going. Aligned to three
all summer two and ass popping. The last couple of days,
the total was from forty four down to forty two,
was back up to forty three last night forty three
and a half. This morning, forty four is popping up.
Right now, we're seeing a steam move to the over
were the Raiders Patriots? If you want that, you can
still find forty three and a Half's looking Anthony os
Logic Live Odd Screen and that's one you would get
sooner rather than later. The markets have moved against the
Patriots this past week. They didn't like cut down day
for New England. I didn't like cut down day for
New England. Rabel put his stamp on the roster, which
means lots of veterans were showing the door. They don't
have anyone from last year's draft last year on the
roster except for Drake May. He's the one guy that
made the team healthy. There are a couple guys on
ir but you know, when you throw an entire draft
out the window. There's been some anti Patriots sentiments in
the markets, and again, Rabel's a character guy, and character
guys made the team and that may work out very
well for New England when all said and done. But
from a market standpoint and the other thing. The Patriots,
the early season schedule is relatively weak. They be favored
in half a dozen games over the first nine weeks
of the season. In fact, I think the offseason dozen
of the lines had them at minus one or higher
in the vast majority of those contests. So we assuming
that they don't stink up the joint, New England will
be favored in a halflets agains because their schedule early on
is so easy. Gino and Drake may both played in August,
So we have two quarterbacks who've seen the field already,
not two quarterbacks primed to struggle necessarily in their debut.
And again, lots of over money over the course of
the last twenty four hours between the Raiders and New England.
Speaker 3: All right, the worst team in the league, the New
Orleans Saints, now pretty much six across the Odds logic screen.
This is, uh six and a half's even Teddy. Yeah,
we've seen some six and a halfs at Pinnacle. We're
seeing some six and a halfs at.
Speaker 2: Buck Guy Super Book.
Speaker 3: Oh boy, it looks to be a very rough season
for this team. Talk about the Saints, who are not
favored in any game this year, versus the Arizona Cardinals.
Speaker 1: So I'm relatively high on Arizona, relatively low on low
on New Orleans, and my numbers six on the game.
So you know, I have the Saints parade as the
weakest team in the league and my number is only six.
So at six and a half, it's starting to get
a little rich here. If you like the Cardinals, it's
been a one way line open four and a half,
It was six by early August, moved to six and
a half in the last week or so. The Saints.
You know, I talk about a team favor to have
the worst record in the league. That doesn't mean they're chalk,
they're thirty two teams. But the Saints are the team
that's being viewed as most likely to have the worst
record in the NFL. They got fifty million in dead
money for players no longer on the roster. Total's done
absolutely nothing, sitting basically forty two and a half all summer,
sitting forty two and a half right now. Gannon zero
and two four the Cardinals in season debuts last year,
they covered from me by a hook thanks to a
kick return touchdown and a two point in conversion. And
I was very very happy with that. I was lucky
to win that game. They were not that they led.
They led by a touchdown at halftime, and the second
half of that game was really ugly, and the kick
return touchdown save me. So cheers remembering Week one bets
from a year ago. But nonetheless, Jonathan Gannon's not won
an opening day game yet, and he's laying a big
price here. Rattler played a bunch in August. Kyler Murray
played versus Kansas City in Week one and then didn't
see the field again. But Spencer Ratler who won the
So that's worth the questioning, did Spencer Ratler win the
job or did Tyler shuck lose it? A little bit
from Colum Ay, a little bit from Colum b but
certainly from a powering standpoint. I got in New Orleans
ranked thirty two out of thirty two teams. They're worse
than the Browns in my numbers, and the team that again,
we expect growing pains, and I'm not surprised that we've
seen a steady flow of Arizona money. It's something I
predicted all the way back in May or June or July,
whenever I first talked about this game. We tally said
that the money has to come for Arizona here, and
it has all right.
Speaker 3: Fishy line here, Tampa Bay two and a half point
road favorite at Atlanta forty six, forty six and a half.
Kind of a couple of different shops making a stand
there on the total.
Speaker 2: Teddy, here's the thing with Tampa.
Speaker 3: I've been living down here for four years, and I
want to make a case for their defense every single year.
I think their defense is going to take a step
back this year. Personal opinion, I think we've started to
see some regression on their part, Lots of hype surrounding
Baker Mayfield. I think this is one of the fishier
lines on the board. Talk to me about Michael PENNOCKX
Junior versus Baker Mayfield.
Speaker 1: So you have to talk to me about what a
fishy line is because my number says Tampa Bay minus two.
There was another one you said it was fishy and
my number was right there as well, So like, what's
a fish what's that? Why does that line feel dice
to you?
Speaker 3: I'm gonna say it's Ariel kind of coined the term,
or maybe somebody else said and she started using it.
And it's just a line that if you just look
at the board you don't think of anything else.
Speaker 2: You're like that that seems a little odd, you know.
Speaker 3: I feel like Tampa Bay minus three and a half
would be like, well, then we're gonna take a stand.
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay's a much better team.
Speaker 3: Atlanta's covered the last two against Tampa granted that was
with Kirk Cousins under center. What are we expecting to
see from Michael pennockx junior here that we didn't see
from Kirk Cousins.
Speaker 1: So Michael Pettick junior was pretty done good. And hey,
my Michael Pennant junior was good enough to get Kailin
to bore the Alabama job. There you go all right,
like legit, how good he was? And I'll just leave
it at that. And again my partnering number here is
to Tampa minus two, divisional home dog. We expect money
for the dog in the under Atlanta too. As you
mentioned two and oh straight up two and oh straight
up nats against Tampa last year. One was an overtime,
the other one came by five points. Cousins was at
quarterback both times. This line was as low as minus
one over the summer started two and a half and
is basically sitting two and a half today. Total forty
eight at the opener, fed up to forty nine. Was
forty eight forty eight and a half about ten days ago.
Steady flow of under money since why the under money?
CAYLEB McGarry the season injury injury forer Atlanta now mccary's
the right tackle, but Panis is a lefty, that's his
blind side. McGary's backup Storm Norton, he's on injured reserve two.
So what they do? They just added three new linemen.
They made a trade with Seattle to get Michael Jirell,
who started three games for the Seahawks last year. The
quote from Raheem Morris quote, it would be unrealistic for
me to tell you that the new lineman, well, they'll
be ready to play Week one. I have seen it
done before at different positions. I've seen it done in
the tackle position. But to beat some of the guys
who are here, who have been doing some of the
stuff we've been doing, will be pretty hard. So basically
we're probably looking at maybe Elijah Wilkinson to be the
right tackle Penis's blind side. Here, it's a concern for
Atlanta the money to come for the under. And oh,
by the way, Baker Mayfield didn't play in the preseason,
and neither did Michael Pennock, so maybe that's why more
money has come for the under in this one. Forty
six and a half the current number.
Speaker 3: Our next up on our long list of breakdowns. That's right,
every single Monday Teddy and I are gonna.
Speaker 2: Go through all of the games.
Speaker 3: This is the game that everybody's gonna play for Survivor Teddy,
and it makes me uneasy. I don't think there's a no,
there's not a different I should take out that case
at home and lunches me. I'm want to take out
the kc Helman replace it with the Denver Brondos Elmon
right after the show.
Speaker 2: But it does kind of concern me.
Speaker 3: We mentioned sophomore quarterbacks Bone Nicks in a second year
there in Denver, Sean Payton. Now we're seeing eighth pop
up right. We saw seven and a half's for a
better part of the summer forty two and a half.
Talk to me about Denver, Tennessee Teddy.
Speaker 1: So my party number, my powering number on the game
Denver minus nine and a half. Nine of the Broncos
ten wins last year came by nine points or more
two scores. All right, now, let's talk about this line
right now, went seven and a half to eight after
preseason in the last week. Some books, there are books
that are worried about we call it teaser protection lines.
They go boom seven and a half to nine or
seven and a half to eight and then eight in
there's no eight and a half for those books that
you go straight to nine, and then we call that
teaser protections. You don't get the six point teaser, so
we'll call eight the prevailing number. There's nine's out there
for teaser protection books, and there's still a couple seven
and a half's out there. Four Denver Total hasn't moved
one iota from the opener until this morning. One more.
I mean, it's it's pretty much gone right now, but
I don't think it's gone all the way. So let's
emergency Betty alert one more time. If you'll like Denver
and tennessee over Bettett sooner rather than later. Forty two
and a half already of most books was forty one
and a half last night. There is still forty one
and a half. Send forty two's out there for you
to pick off if you want, if you're interested in
this total. So if you like the overbed it sooner,
if you like the under wait. Bo Nicks played in
two preseason games, cam Ward played in all three, So
we have two quarterbacks who are ready, and of course
we have rookie QB in Ward making his first career
road start. They have not done particularly well prior to
Caleb Williams. Caleb Williams win last year at Tennessee in
Week one. Rookie quarterbacks oh seven and one ats in
their season openers over the previous a few seasons.
Speaker 3: More divisional home dogs, more under money.
Speaker 2: We got San Francisco here minus two. There are a
couple two and a.
Speaker 3: Half's for the Niner Seattle total of forty four and
a half, pretty much across the board here, Teddy God,
there's so many great teaser spots, and I wrote it down.
No teasers week one, No teasers week one. I need
to show some discipline because there are so many juicy spots.
Talk to me about the Niners. Who is my Super
Bowl pick? At twenty to one on the road in Seattle.
Speaker 1: So my powering number for the game is San fran
minus one and a half. The market's a little bit
higher than that divisional dome dog, so we spend theory,
expect money for the dog and the under Last year,
both teams won on the road in this series. San
fran opened one and a half, with two and a
half since the beginning of August for a preseason some
books are down to minus two in the last day
or two. The forty nine Ers injury report is not pretty,
and particularly at wide receiver. The injury report as ugly.
As a guest, it's going to be Ricky Piersoll and
who for for brock perty to throw to. You know,
Brandon IA's hook and John Jennings's hook is hurt, and
you know there could be issues at receiver in this
game for San Fran total forty six in May, forty
five in June, and lie down to forty four this
past week. There are again lots of concerns about the
forty nine Ers wide receiver injuries and the party played
in preseason, so did Sam Darnold. Best preseason of any
rookie that no one's talking about is the Seattle's wide
receiver Tory Horton at of Colorado State. He was a
fifth rounder because he was hurt last year. The guy
was an absolute sensation in camp and was an absolute
difference maker on the field for Seattle. Watch out for
Tory Horton. If you want some deep sleepers for your
fantasy team or some overs in Week one.
Speaker 3: All right, We're gonna go right in to Detroit at
green Bay. Green Bay now a two and a half
point favorite total forty seven and a half Teddy over
the summer. This one was a pickum. Mike Parsons now
for the green Bay defense. How much of an impact
do you think he's gonna make here week one?
Speaker 1: I'll take the under on his impact.
Speaker 2: Okay.
Speaker 1: My party number is green Bay minus one. I think
the markets have overacted a little bit, you know. And
you talked about to pick out there at the open.
It was green Bay minus one and a half all summer,
then minus twos now minus two and a half's total
from forty nine down to forty seven just in the
last week after the Micah Parsons deal. You have two
new coordinators in Detroit, obviously, Aaron Glenn and Ben Johnson
now head coaches. At one point, Detroit to lost twenty
four straight in Lambeau that ended in twenty fifteen. There's
six and one straight up the last seven against the Packers.
Only lost at home on Thanksgiving up minus eight last
year thirty four to thirty one and twenty four to fourteen.
Detroit Lions had four preseason games. Shreed Goff didn't take
a snap. Jordan Love completed one pass in Week one,
didn't take another snap, had surgery on his non throwing hand,
was a limited participant in practice. It looks like he's
gonna have to wear a brace, you know, quote. It
will be some weeks having to brace it up. This
is loves quote. Some weeks having to brace it up
and just keep it protected. It's one of those things.
Will play it by year as they start getting into games,
seeing how it feels as you get back to live contact,
But there will be some time having the brace. Still
his quote is not as big a deal as you
guys think it might be. So Jordan Love has gone
through surgery, Jared Goff didn't take a snap, and we
have an impact defensive player for Green Bay who may
not play a ton of snaps in this ballgame, but
if he has one impactful one that could affect the total.
As I mentioned, we've seen lots of under money over
the course of the last week or two.
Speaker 3: All right, Teddy, rams down to two and a half
here across the board, total forty four. Biggest question mark
for me is how healthy is Matthew Stafford.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good question. My powering number for this
one rams minus one and a half, so I'm a
little bit lower in the markets. There were minus threes
at the Open. It was minus two and a half
as soon as Stafford reported. As soon as training camps
opened and Stafford couldn't play with his bad back late
July early August. Really hasn't moved since then. In the markets.
I'm not convinced it's going to go to three. There's
a chance that could go back up to three. If
you like la I would buy him now. You can
even two's out there if you shop around. Total was
forty six off summer started getting back down with Stafford
sitting out, got as low as forty three and a half.
It has been back back up to forty four with
Stafford back at practice. McVeigh was five and oh Week one,
but he's lost straight up and against the spread twice
in the last three years. Oh. Last year's coming with
an asterisk, they were plus five and a half. They
lost by six in overtime at Detroit Tamiko Ryan's one
and one straight up week Colts. He beat the one
on one straight up in Week ones. He beat the
Colts on the road last year in straight up fashion.
Stafford obviously didn't play in the preseasons. CJ. Stroud did
play a couple of series Week two against Carolina, so
he's not coming into the season without having played at all.
Speaker 3: I'm over here mess with my Odds logic screen, one
of my favorite things. So you can do Teddy's you
can move the books around. And I made the mistake
of letting bright. He's my Odds logic screen on my computer,
and he screwed up all my books.
Speaker 2: No one, I'm having problems. I'm going why's the hot
Rock over getting? Super Book should be here?
Speaker 3: Circa okay address I digress AFC potential preview Baltimore Buffalo
pick them at both super Book and Circa Pinnacles Baltimore
minus one hard Rock.
Speaker 2: Buffalo minus one, fifteen and a half is the total.
Speaker 1: So mind powering number is Buffalo minus one for this
Boggain and let's do one lay. I didn't know if
you'd have a bunch of merging bening alerts. We have
a couple, and they're all to do with totals. Let's
emergency ben alert this total right here, right now. Doodle
loop doodle oop, doodle up.
Speaker 3: I'm telling you we're bringing back next week already already
message him on Slack. When Dan's back, he has to
bring back the Wayne's World music. The comment section has spoken,
I love it.
Speaker 1: I I'm on that was my That's that was the
first thing that came to mind the very first time
we did it. I'm like, you know, and I'm like,
all right, that works for me and Wayne's World. Even
the movie hasn't really held up, but the cultural reference
still has.
Speaker 2: I would agree with that.
Speaker 1: Yeah. So anyhow, my number is Buffalo minus one Power Ratings.
Why is this total? However? Is worth talking right now?
Highest total on the board. This is the highest total
on the board. Was fifty two and a half last week,
was fifty one and a half last night. I'm seeing
fifty and a half's right now. There are still fifty
ones out there. If you like the under for Baltimore Buffalo,
bet that sooner rather than later. The money is flowing
to the under on Monday morning here on Labor Day.
Last year, these two teams played a couple of memorable games.
The Ravens beat him thirty five to ten in the
regular season, and Buffalo won twenty seven to twenty five
in the playoffs. That was a mark Andrews drop two
point conversion game for the Ravens. Buffalo minus two all summer,
down to minus one in August, down to Pickham this
past week. The market certainly respecting Harbow. He's eleven and
five straight up. Week one lost to the Chiefs last
year on Thursday Night after the replay review negated Baltimore's
touchdown on the final play of the game. McDermott, pretty
good Week one, six and two last year. I already
talked about that thirty four to twenty eight win against
Arizona where they trailed halftime, gave up a kick return touchdown,
and still were able to win the game by six points.
Josh Allen has played on every preseason every year. This year,
Josh Allen did not take a snap in the preseason.
Lamar Jackson did not take a snap in the preseason either,
So two qbs who have not seen playing time in August.
That two could be affecting this total. Getting bad down.
Speaker 3: All right, last but not least, Monday Night football Chicago
at Minnesota. Excuse me, Minnesota at Chicago. Chicago was minus
one over the summer. Now I'm Minnesota minus one and
a half. Total forty three and a half. It's any
time to break our film producer's heart. Tell me why
Minnesota is such a better team than his Chicago Bears.
Speaker 1: Maybe, Uh, this game. I'm fast, So I'm fascinated by
this game, I really am, because there's a well, let's
talk about it. My number Minnesota minus two. The markets
one one and a half right now, and you know
what's number done? It opened, Chicago opened minus one, got
bet down to pick them in July. It's been Minnesota
minus two most of August. And that's you know, I mean,
there's ones one and a half is out there right now,
so we've seen a little bit of Bears money. Total
open forty five, got bet as low as forty three.
Now I'm seeing forty three and a half's out there,
so it didn't get me lower than forty three. Minnesota
has pretty much dominated this series seven and one straight
up the last eight meetings since twenty twenty. The only
Bears win without an ugly game twelve to ten. They
win last year two meetings, Minnesota won them both thirty
to twenty seven and overtime and thirty to twelve, so
their offense worked in both those contests, so Jajon McCarthy
is not a rookie, but this is a rookie quarterback
on the road laying points in Week one. McCarthy's a
rookie quarterback in my world. It's not gonna show that
way in databases, but obviously it's a QB. He's never
had an NFL start before. We played a couple series
in the preseason opener against Houston in Week one of
the preseum, that was it. Caleb Williams played twice and
the offense looked pretty good with him, certainly the second
time with him on the field. Ben Johnson coming in
with enormous expectations in Chicago, and again, if you're laying
with Minnesota and telling everyone that Minnesota is way better
than the Bears, maybe they are not a quarterback not
week one, that may be concerned.
Speaker 3: All right, guys, we have a few minutes left before
we got to get out of here, so that wager
talk today can get started. Teddy covers anything you'd like
to leave us with before we get out of here.
Speaker 1: It's Week one. Don't lose your bankroll, you know, that's
the nother the most important thing for recreational betters to
consider is bankroll preservation, all right, you want to be
in action. So if that means you have one hundred
dollars to bet, bet less, I bet ten dollars a game.
Give yourself something to play for next.
Speaker 3: Because we can it for reference, ADI, how many games
do you have premium plays.
Speaker 2: Up for this weekend? A wager two?
Speaker 1: Right now? I have three. I expect to have at
least one more, and I may have two more. So
it's not but that's I mean, that's my standard volume.
I'll go in an NFL usually between three and five
plays a week, and that's pretty consistent. There are weeks
that I just can't find three. There are weeks that
I like six, you know, uh, But in general, three,
four or five plays is what a week is. What
you're gonna I'm gonna release for the clients. That's what
I'm gonna bet myself. I give you guys what I
bet that's still available. If I bet something that's not
available anymore than you guys don't get it. But otherwise,
all right, I hope that the line moves and you
can get it again or something. But in general, you'll
get just about everything that I play personally. But week
one people tend to go nuts, and Week one is
the week where we literally have the least information we're
gonna have all year about these teams. You know, we've
we've seen a little bit of preseason, and we've read
a whole lot, but we have them seen them on
the field than anything resembling a meaningful game against anything
resembling a defense that's coming to play. So there's a
learning curve here week one. I know I have a
really good track record in Week one thirty and eleven
the last ten years, but that's because I'm not peppering
the board and I'm really trying to pay attention to
what teams actually are better and what teams aren't. But
I would say, if I'm going to give one piece
of advice for Week one is keep your unit sizes reasonable.
Don't blow your bankroll.
Speaker 3: Number one great advice from the man himself, Teddy Covers. Guys,
if you missed the divisional previews that we did last
we can go to the Wager Talking YouTube channel check
those out. Still plenty of time to watch those if
you guys are looking for more extensive breakdowns in terms
of regular season wins, so you can make some of
those futures bets. Those are up on the wager Talk
YouTube channel as now as well. Just type in opening
Line Report in your search bar, go back and check
all of those out, Teddy. One last piece of advice
in terms of what your season win report contains. I
know there's part one as well as part two.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and look, I've got it's got I think sixth
plays total now in the season win report. And the
beauty of that season win report is that you get
the info to go along with the plays, because it's
info you can use all year long. I don't expect
I'm gonna go six and zero. So when I'm wrong
about one of these teams, I like to make money
betting against it, you know, betting on me being wrong.
And I you know, the teams are going to pay
attention to all year. We're gonna see stuff early and
if I if I was wrong about one of them,
we'll come back the other way and make money with
them on a game by game basis. So obviously it's
something I put a lot of time into over the summer.
Speaker 2: You can go back and.
Speaker 1: Look at you know, we did divisional breakdowns. You know
we've got team by team breakdowns. We've done it multiple
times over the summer. We did it early and we
did it again late last week. So there's lots of
great content on the wager Talk YouTube we haven't done,
so subscribe. What do we have two hundred and ten
plus thousand of years. Of course, I only ask one thing.
If you like the video, hit the like button. That's
all we ask. Thank you, comment below because I'll tell
you what. Kelly's going to be in the comments this week.
I'm going to be in the comments this week. We'll
respond to every single comment you put out there. So
we appreciate the comments very much. But the one thing
I the only asked thing I asked from you is
the like button makes all the difference. Cheers.
Speaker 2: That's all all right, Teddy.
Speaker 3: We'll see you next Monday morning and every single Monday
morning until the Monday.
Speaker 2: After the super Bowl. Guys, this has been the opening
line report.
Speaker 3: Like Teddy said, give us that like, hit that subscribe
button so you never miss another episode.
Speaker 2: Cheers to everybody for week one, and we'll see you
next week.