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Speaker 1: You're alive.

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Speaker 2: Welcome in to the opening line report.

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Speaker 3: Kelly Stewart here joined each and every Monday Morning, but

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Teddy covers eleven AM Eastern here over in Florida, eight

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and AM Pacific over there in Las Vegas, and we're

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gonna get right into this week. One card, Teddy. These

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lines have been out for months. I got this really

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cool prop that I was so excited about using because

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emergency betting alerts, so that we can let you guys

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know that you need to be getting in your bets now.

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Speaker 2: But Teddy, this week maybe a little light because we

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have a lot of stale lines.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, though, I mean two lines just move so we'll

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talk about it or in the process of moving. So,

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I mean, Monday morning is betting time. And obviously, of

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all the shows that we do this year, this is

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going to be the show with the least action going

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on while we're live on air. The reason that we're

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going we would pushed the show an hour earlier this

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year is that we could capture these line moves in

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real time. We could give you a little heads up,

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perhaps ahead of time on a handful of these That's

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the point of the emergency bed alerts. Is to make

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sure that if you want sade ay or total A,

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you can get it at the current number that's not

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likely to be there much longer. But when we're talking

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about lines that have been out since May, obviously for

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today on labor and then it's also now a national holiday,

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you know it's not going to be a day where

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the screen's lighten up all the time. But I just

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saw a little bit of movement on two games, so

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we'll talk about it when we get to them.

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Speaker 2: Amazing.

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Speaker 1: That's a curious note. But starting next Monday, all right, where

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it's not a national holiday and all the lines are

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going to be you know, the virgin numbers that we

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get to attack right away, we'll start be having emergency

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beting alerts in bunches. So next week should be a

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whole lot of fun. Today should be a whole lot

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of fun. We're gonna talk about what happened this preseason,

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how it affects the number, some of the long term

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trends and angles for week one, and let's see if

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we can.

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Speaker 3: Teddy, I may even throwing a little survivor talk for

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all of the contest people out there, because I think

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Week one is exceptionally hard and maybe I need some

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advice on who might not lose their game as a

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touchdown favorite. Here, all right, guys, get up in your

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odds screen. Whether that's odds Logic, you can use odds

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Logic dot com backslash Kelly Vegas for a week trial,

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or you can go to the free odd screen on

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wager talk dot com so you guys can follow along

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with what Teddy and I are talking about in terms

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of these line moves. Thursday Night Football, Teddy Dallas Philadelphia.

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We didn't see Dak Prescott or Jalen Hurts play a

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single down in preseason.

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Speaker 2: We have no micaeh Parsons. Now for the Dallas defense.

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Break down this game.

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Speaker 3: For me because it sure looks real easy to tease

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Philadelphia this week.

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Speaker 1: So if you don't have, by the way, an odds

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Logic live odds screen can be talking about going and

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follow the games in rotation order. Get one right now.

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You get a free seven day trial, get you through

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until next Monday. So it's an advantage to do it

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on a Monday in that sense. Oddslogic dot Com backslash

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Teddy gets your free seven day all access playing a

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simple again odds Logic dot com, backslash Teddy or just

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visit thought dot com and then check it out. It

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really is a good live odds product. And again I'm

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seeing on x now more and more people talking about it,

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more and more people saying this is the best live

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odds product out there. So I'm impressed with what they've

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done behind the scenes with odds Logic and our live

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odds product with Dallas and Philadelphia. So starting next week,

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I'll have the look ahead line, I'll have my powering line,

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and I'll have where it opened and the current number.

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So I give out four sets of lines for every game.

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For today, we didn't have a look ahead line, so

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you don't get four sets of lines. That being said,

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my powering number for Dallas Philly is Philly minus eight.

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The markets opened this game. It was seven all summer,

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then moved down to six and a half in August.

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This past week it moved back up to seven and

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then up to seven and a half at a lot

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of book after the micup Parsons trade. Now you talked

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about it, Kel neither quarterback played a down in preseason,

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Prescott or Hurts, and in general, the markets like a

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divisional underdogs b divisional unders in Week one. This is

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just for Week one, but divisional dogs and divisual unders

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and divisional home dogs in particular, but unders and dogs

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in these division games, we would expect the money to flow.

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This is going to be a theme of today's show.

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The long term trends show Week one divisional games day

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under and the long term trends say divisional underdogs, particularly

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home underdogs in week one, are worthy of. Look look

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that said this game with the divisional underdog and has

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been trending over the toll was forty six and a

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half all summer moved up. It's called it forty seven

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and a half this past week after the Parsons trade.

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And this has a lot to do with what, Hey,

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we got betteran quarterbacks, So you're you're not worried about

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guys that didn't see the field as much, but b

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you have concerns a little bit about both these defenses

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Dallas without Parsons and filled it up with a lot

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of new you know, people are talking about how minutes,

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how much change the Eagles defense had in the off

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season when it came to jessing some of the veterans

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and giving more playing time from the newcomers. So Phillies

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defense is younger than it was when they won the

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Super Bowl last February, and Dallas's defense has their fair

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share of question marks. Last year, Philly won thirty four

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to six and forty one to seven. They had no

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problem moving the ball against Dallas in either meeting. They

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had no problem stopping Dallas and either meeting. That being said,

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Dak Prescott didn't play anither game. It was Cooper Rush

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both time. In twenty two and twenty three, Dallas and

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Philly split the two meetings.

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Speaker 3: Sorry, Jeddy, I was opening up my Survivor spreadsheet because

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I have three games on it.

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Speaker 2: And this was one of them. Philadelphia lose this game.

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Speaker 1: So if we're gonna talk Survivor, in my mind, there's

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all there's one play to make a Survivor this week.

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And okay, I'm a proponent of I'm not saving fifty teams.

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You know, I'm not trying to save I want to

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I'd rather win. What it's seventy percent of the field

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went out in Week one last year or something, and

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he was insane, insane, So, but that cannon does happen

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the one team that I'm playing, if I have a

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survivor entry this week. Is Denver. Okay, right, Denver's the choice.

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Denver's not losing that game in my opinion.

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Speaker 2: Okay, but the whole world's going to be on them,

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and we'll get to them here in a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Agree. Agree, I mean that's the issue with it. But Denver,

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if you're looking for the safest pick, it's hard for

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me to envision a scenario. I mean, they could strange things.

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You know, anything can happen any given NFL Sunday, you know,

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but of all the underdogs Tennessees, though, it's hard for

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me to picture cam Ward leading the Titans to victory

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in this first game in that environment and a rookie year.

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And we'll talk about some of the rookie records and

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why you don't bet on rookie quarterbacks first road game.

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Although Caleb Williams did win this first road game last

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year against Tennessee. That being said, I don't think he

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had one hundred yards passing in that ball game. It

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wasn't a whole lot to do with the offense.

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Speaker 2: I was on Tennessee. Let's not remind me of that.

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That was very painful.

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Speaker 3: Our producer John Hugland today while Dan is out on

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his honeymoon is laughing and enjoying my suffering, because I'm

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pretty sure he enjoyed me having Tennessee in that one.

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Speaker 2: Let's go to.

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Speaker 3: Friday night, another divisional matchup AFC West Chiefs on the

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road at the Chargers. You just mentioned we're looking at

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divisional home underdogs and divisional unders.

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Speaker 2: Talk to me about this one now.

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Speaker 1: The Chargers are not a divisional home underdog. This game

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is being played in South Paulo, Brazil, so it is

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a long long way from LA. My powering number has

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Kansas City minus three and a half in this ballgame.

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This line was basically two and a half all summer.

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It moved to minus three the first week of August

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when Rashan It was right after a show Slater got

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hurt left tackle for the Chargers, the bookend left tackle

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who's supposed to be protecting Justin Herbert's blindside all season. Instead,

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he tore his pateeller tendon and he's out for the year.

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Total has bounced between forty five and forty six basically

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all summer. Sitting right now, we'll call it forty five

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and a half. As the prevailing number Kansas City is

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seven and oh straight up the last seven meetings. If

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you took plus three with the Chargers in those seven

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meetings that the Chiefs have won all of them, well,

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five of the seven have been decided by a field

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goal or less or an overtime, so you've done just

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fine taken plus three, even though the Chiefs have won

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all these ballgames. And of course, what Kansas City has

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been able to do in the one score games is incredible.

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It's never been done before. Obviously, an NFL record seventeen

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and oh in games decided by one score. It includes

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five games from twenty twenty three, eleven from the regular

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season last year, and then that thirty two to twenty

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nine win over the Bills in the AF Championship Game.

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Mahomes and Reed and company have found ways to win

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every close game for a long time. Again, we're talking

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back to twenty twenty three. That being said super Bowl

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losers in Week one, five and nineteen the last twenty

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four seasons. But let's break that down all right. There

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was an OH to twelve run and then a five

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and seven run. The five and seven runs are more recent,

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so five and nineteen over the last twenty four years,

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but just five and seven over the last twelve, which

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says to me, yeah, you can make a case for

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Kansas City if you want to. Five and seven not

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going to talk me off something as much as five

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and nineteen is going to. And of course we talk

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about quarterbacks that played in preseason, quarterbacks that didn't. Patrick

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Mahomes played in August, Justin Herbert did not advantage Kansas

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City when it comes to week one.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Teddy playing ants that super Ball loser has been

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a fun one for myself. Let's get into Sunday football. Well,

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Pittsburgh Steelers at the New York Jets. It's kind of

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break this one down for me. These are two teams

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I think are going to take steps back. I know

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that sounds impossible for the Jets to take a further

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step back. Aaron Rodgers, same age as me, Justin Fields, Well,

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here you go.

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Speaker 1: So my powering number for the game Pittsburgh minus two

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and a half. This line opened three, It went down

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to two and a half in July, back up to

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three in August, back down to two and a half.

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At a lot of books, this is really a split

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line right now. You can take plus three, you can

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lay minus two and a half. That's a great scenario

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for betters. Whichever side you're on. This is one of

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those games. If it lands three, you can't be losing this,

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all right, And if you have Pittsburgh, you can't be

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pushing that. If you like the Steelers, there are enough

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two and a half's out there to get one. If

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you like the Jets, there are enough plus threes out

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there to find one. If you can't find and both

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two and a half and three right now, you need

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more books. You know you need to. And that's why

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I recommend to everyone, whatever state you're in, every single

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available sports books should be in a sports where you've

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an account that I moved to Las Vegas, not specifically,

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but one of the big reasons why I moved to

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Las Vegas in nineteen ninety eight was because I got

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sick of my bookie and this book he ripped me

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off half points here, a half points there. Why don't

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I just have opportunities to better all the casinos and

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you end up winning games by half point instead of

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losing games by half point in that regard, and this

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is one of those games you have to lay two

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and a half. If you want the Steelers, you have

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to take three if you want the New York Jets.

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There is no more key number than the number of

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three in the NFL. Tomlin eleven six and one straight

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up in Week one eighteen previous seasons. He's been pretty

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good about having his team ready, the total basically sitting

240
00:11:52,519 --> 00:11:54,200
at thirty eight and a half since July. The Jets

241
00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:58,360
office didn't work in the preseason. Aaron Rodgers and Justin

242
00:11:58,399 --> 00:12:01,000
Field's a rare scenario where both quarterbacks played for the

243
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opposite team. Last year, Field's played the preseason, Rogers did not.

244
00:12:06,519 --> 00:12:08,519
He was not good in the regular season opener last

245
00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:11,519
year at San Francisco after not playing in the preseason.

246
00:12:11,519 --> 00:12:13,799
Then again, San Francisco's pretty good at least they were

247
00:12:13,799 --> 00:12:17,320
in Week one a year ago, But advantage the Jets

248
00:12:17,639 --> 00:12:20,600
when it comes to which quarterback has gotten playing time

249
00:12:20,639 --> 00:12:23,039
in August. That being said, the playing time Justin Fields

250
00:12:23,039 --> 00:12:26,679
got in August wasn't pretty. The Jets passing game basically

251
00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:29,120
didn't work when he was on the field.

252
00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:32,120
Speaker 3: Teddy, let's talk teaser real quick. Is this a good

253
00:12:32,159 --> 00:12:34,879
scenario to bet? The Jets and a teaser.

254
00:12:35,120 --> 00:12:36,120
Speaker 2: Somewhat of a low total.

255
00:12:36,159 --> 00:12:38,039
Speaker 3: It's not one of the lower totals, but for the

256
00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:40,879
first week it is. Is this something we get jets

257
00:12:40,919 --> 00:12:42,639
over a touchdown and it's worth a look.

258
00:12:43,000 --> 00:12:46,480
Speaker 1: I will not bet a single teaser. Week one. Teasers

259
00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:48,679
are at okay, so teasers, this is there is something

260
00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:52,000
that I don't hear what people talking about. Teasers are

261
00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:55,679
at their best when the lines are at their sharpest. Okay,

262
00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:58,919
week one, that's what you want. When the lines are

263
00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:01,559
as tight as they can be, the six points really

264
00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:06,720
matter week one. How many lines when we look up

265
00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:08,320
back a month from now, we're gonna be like, wow,

266
00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:10,440
that line was. I can't believe that number was there

267
00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:12,919
in Week one. You know, we see that all the time.

268
00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:16,120
We have a peep think about college football this weekend.

269
00:13:16,519 --> 00:13:18,159
All the teams we said, oh, this team's gonna be

270
00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:21,200
great and they're not. And teams that we thought were

271
00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:23,440
gonna be off of Like wow, I can't believe Kennessas

272
00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:25,279
State held wake to ten points. You know, this is

273
00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:28,120
supposed to be a so you see stuff the first

274
00:13:28,159 --> 00:13:31,440
week that you're not expecting. There's gonna be upsets. There's

275
00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:33,799
a reason that seventy percent of the field got knocked

276
00:13:33,799 --> 00:13:37,679
out in Survivor last year. So I'm not making one

277
00:13:37,799 --> 00:13:40,600
teaser now, and especially with minus one thirty minus one

278
00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:43,200
thirty five, I'm not making a teaser this week. You

279
00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:45,840
can make all you want, but there's not a chance

280
00:13:45,879 --> 00:13:49,000
I'm making a Week three, Week four, we start talking

281
00:13:49,039 --> 00:13:52,799
about teasers Week one, Week two, not so much for me.

282
00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:56,559
Speaker 3: All right, let's talk about the Dolphins and Colts. Let

283
00:13:56,600 --> 00:13:58,360
me get my Odds logic screen back up.

284
00:13:58,279 --> 00:14:02,240
Speaker 2: Over in here. One and a half one pretty.

285
00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:03,559
Speaker 3: Much across the board, there's a couple one and a

286
00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:07,120
halves here for the Colts, Danny Dimes getting the nod

287
00:14:07,159 --> 00:14:10,720
there to do. They have him wrapped in plastic and

288
00:14:10,759 --> 00:14:13,360
bubble wrap to save him for the entire season. We're

289
00:14:13,399 --> 00:14:15,639
gonna find out. Talk to me about this week one

290
00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:18,360
line and who you like in this game, or is

291
00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:21,320
this just another game that maybe it's not worth a look.

292
00:14:22,559 --> 00:14:25,720
Speaker 1: So one last point about teasers, it's at the end

293
00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:27,440
of the season, the same way we talk about week

294
00:14:27,519 --> 00:14:31,399
seventeen Week eighteen of the regular season, where you get

295
00:14:31,399 --> 00:14:33,960
a little bit more variance for what teams are going

296
00:14:34,039 --> 00:14:36,360
to show up and which teams aren't. That's another time

297
00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:38,120
of the year. The first couple of weeks, the last

298
00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:41,679
couple of weeks. I avoid teasers like the plague middle

299
00:14:41,679 --> 00:14:44,759
of the season, optimal beginning in the end, not so

300
00:14:44,919 --> 00:14:48,759
much for the Dolphins and the Colts. Again, I'm not

301
00:14:48,799 --> 00:14:51,600
giving an emergency betting alert here, but we've just seen

302
00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:55,200
some money, some sharp money for Miami this morning, in

303
00:14:55,240 --> 00:14:58,159
the last hour, we've seen a little bit of Dolphins money,

304
00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:00,480
not a ton, a little bit. My power number for

305
00:15:00,519 --> 00:15:05,240
the game Indye minus one. And we look at the

306
00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:07,279
number this year, I mean Danny Dimes and twoa both

307
00:15:07,279 --> 00:15:09,879
played in the preseason. This is a fun line to

308
00:15:09,919 --> 00:15:12,799
talk about. What happened. Indy was minus one at the open.

309
00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:15,440
Then Miami kind of took a little bit of money.

310
00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:17,320
They were minus one by June. And when I say

311
00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:20,240
the open, these lines opened in May around when the draft,

312
00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:21,919
A little bit after the Draft, I believe it was,

313
00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:24,919
but in general, we're talking about lines that opened in May.

314
00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:27,759
So Indies minus want at the Open, then Miami was

315
00:15:27,799 --> 00:15:29,679
minus one by June. Then it went to Pick, then

316
00:15:29,679 --> 00:15:31,559
it went to Colts one and a half minus two,

317
00:15:31,919 --> 00:15:34,279
just around the time of the Jalen Ramsey trade. And

318
00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:36,960
now we're seeing a little bit of Miami money, pushing

319
00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:38,720
it back down to one slash one and a half.

320
00:15:38,759 --> 00:15:43,080
I'm even seeing some half out there. That being said,

321
00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:44,759
the total of it sitting in forty seven all summer

322
00:15:44,799 --> 00:15:48,240
really hasn't moved. I'm seeing some forty sevens juice to

323
00:15:48,279 --> 00:15:49,840
the under. I'm seeing a couple of forty six and

324
00:15:49,879 --> 00:15:52,000
a half's out there right now. So we're seeing a

325
00:15:52,039 --> 00:15:55,120
little bit of under money and two AA action on

326
00:15:55,159 --> 00:15:59,080
the side, with the latest action coming towards Miami. The

327
00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:01,720
Colts last Week one win, and this is one of

328
00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:03,679
those bizarre anomalies, not like it need has been a

329
00:16:03,679 --> 00:16:06,639
bottom feeder this whole time. They haven't won in Week

330
00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:11,879
one since twenty and thirteen, ten and one straight up,

331
00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:15,279
and they're laying in this game. So and obviously Steichen

332
00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:16,840
has been there the whole time, but week ones haven't

333
00:16:16,879 --> 00:16:19,399
been his strong point necessarily. The Dolphins are four and

334
00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:21,519
oh straight up in Week one since twenty twenty one,

335
00:16:21,679 --> 00:16:25,279
two and zero under McDaniel, so they've been pretty good,

336
00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:28,840
while the Colts have been pretty bad as a franchise

337
00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:31,159
in this role in recent years.

338
00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:36,360
Speaker 3: All Right, Panthers, Jaguars, we've kind of seen some interesting

339
00:16:36,399 --> 00:16:39,519
line movement in this one. What's up three across the

340
00:16:39,519 --> 00:16:43,480
board here for Jacksonville forty six and a half. Teddy

341
00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:47,759
over that key number of three. I'm buying Carolina this year.

342
00:16:47,799 --> 00:16:51,279
You and I talked about this team during the divisional previews.

343
00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:55,159
We talked about this team way back in June. Do

344
00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:57,320
you think this is going to be a tighter game

345
00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:01,240
or the market's correct saying now Jacksonville is a better team.

346
00:17:01,559 --> 00:17:02,600
Speaker 2: Move this one to three.

347
00:17:03,039 --> 00:17:05,599
Speaker 1: And just this morning, it's really interesting. We've seen some

348
00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:09,839
money for the under forty six and a half. Now

349
00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:13,599
the pretty much the number everywhere my powering number for

350
00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:15,279
the game. And again I'll give you my powering number.

351
00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:18,680
This is just my personally. They do not factor in situations,

352
00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:21,480
which matters later in the season. This is just team

353
00:17:21,519 --> 00:17:24,680
A versus Team B factor in home field. My numbers

354
00:17:24,759 --> 00:17:27,759
Jags four over the Panthers. So I'm perhaps not as

355
00:17:27,799 --> 00:17:30,799
high on Carolina as you are. I still got Carolina

356
00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:33,119
ranked as one of the worst teams in the league.

357
00:17:33,559 --> 00:17:35,680
Line sat at two and a half all summer, popped

358
00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:38,200
up to three in the last week. The total was

359
00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:40,000
forty five and a half. For much of August. It's

360
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:42,279
been bet up since now we're seeing perhaps a little

361
00:17:42,279 --> 00:17:46,480
buyback on that. Trevor and Bryce both played in the preseason,

362
00:17:46,559 --> 00:17:49,799
so we've seen Lawrence and Young get their snaps and

363
00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:53,359
that's a positive sign for Week one over the positive

364
00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:56,599
signed for Week one teams Dave Canalis. Let's see last

365
00:17:56,680 --> 00:18:01,200
year opening Day forty seven to ten, the Panthers loss,

366
00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:03,400
and they lost to a Saints team that was awful,

367
00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,759
So Canalis did not have them ready on opening Day

368
00:18:06,839 --> 00:18:09,119
last year. Liam Cohen his first game, first year head coach,

369
00:18:09,279 --> 00:18:11,359
and that's more as much more a fifty to fifty proposition.

370
00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:13,480
We talked about the first year, first time head coaches

371
00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:16,799
in their first home game as favorites. All of that,

372
00:18:16,839 --> 00:18:20,119
it's it's not it's not a clear prevailing trend for

373
00:18:20,319 --> 00:18:25,079
teams for guys like Cohen. That being said, you know,

374
00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:27,880
it's three pretty much painted across the board right now,

375
00:18:28,279 --> 00:18:31,920
and that total forty six and a half. So any

376
00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:33,279
you say, oh, I could have lay two and a

377
00:18:33,279 --> 00:18:34,680
half with Jacksonville. I could have laid to and a

378
00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:36,759
half with Jacksonville. You know this is a week where

379
00:18:36,799 --> 00:18:41,160
you just I don't freak out if I missed a

380
00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:45,119
number back in May. It is what it is, and

381
00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:46,559
to two and a half to three. We talk about

382
00:18:46,559 --> 00:18:49,799
how important it is when you're laying three as opposed

383
00:18:49,799 --> 00:18:51,920
to lay in two and a half. It's never gonna

384
00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:54,000
cost you a loss. It can cost you a win

385
00:18:54,039 --> 00:18:56,799
when it lands three because you're right on the number,

386
00:18:57,240 --> 00:19:00,960
but it's not gonna cost you the extra juice that'll

387
00:19:01,039 --> 00:19:03,599
loss it. A push never kills you. You know, some

388
00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:06,440
betters hate pushes. Chart betters don't mind pushes at a

389
00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:08,480
ottot mind push. Anytime I get a push, fine good.

390
00:19:08,519 --> 00:19:11,119
I did a good job shopping the number, and I

391
00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:14,200
don't complain when a game ends up in a tie

392
00:19:14,599 --> 00:19:15,799
against the spread soddy.

393
00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:17,799
Speaker 3: I know this is an NFL show, but I am

394
00:19:17,799 --> 00:19:19,359
going to complain when it ends up in a tie

395
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:22,920
when I bet it early in the week. Let's just yeah, TOLDO,

396
00:19:23,519 --> 00:19:25,640
I just waited for it to go back up, which

397
00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:26,839
I didn't think it was going to go back up.

398
00:19:26,839 --> 00:19:29,640
I got plus end up as a push went back up.

399
00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:32,759
So those types of pushes, I think can be a

400
00:19:32,799 --> 00:19:38,680
little frustrating. Again, I'll take the push. Just trying to

401
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:40,400
read these markets. Do you have any advice, whether it's

402
00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:42,880
college football, NFL, trying to read those markets. You mentioned

403
00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:44,079
you didn't think it was going to go back up

404
00:19:44,079 --> 00:19:47,160
either yet than it did, And at that point, I've

405
00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:48,400
got a bad number in pocket.

406
00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:50,759
Speaker 2: I'm not going to re bet it at nine and

407
00:19:50,759 --> 00:19:52,200
a half knowing, and.

408
00:19:52,559 --> 00:19:54,599
Speaker 1: So college football is more difficult to predict to an NFL.

409
00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:59,920
But I guess what we saw was steady Toledo money

410
00:20:00,759 --> 00:20:02,279
and then some of there. But some of that was

411
00:20:02,279 --> 00:20:04,839
buyback and maybe some of the like like that type

412
00:20:04,839 --> 00:20:08,880
of move wouldn't necessarily happen week two, week three, week four,

413
00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:11,359
but that was a line that had been pounded all summer,

414
00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:14,160
so I don't even know that it was a legit move.

415
00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:16,039
I think it was some buyback people that had they

416
00:20:16,079 --> 00:20:18,119
and they it was a good buyback for them. They

417
00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:18,640
catched the middle.

418
00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:20,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, I hope somebody got the middle.

419
00:20:21,599 --> 00:20:23,000
Speaker 1: I mean to hit the post on the one side,

420
00:20:23,039 --> 00:20:23,880
but that's fine, you know.

421
00:20:24,599 --> 00:20:28,160
Speaker 3: Okay, let's get into another divisional matchup here. We've got

422
00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:33,079
the New York Giants versus the Washington no longer football team.

423
00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:36,279
This one I think was pretty much seven all summer,

424
00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:39,480
and now we're seeing it flipped, at least on the

425
00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:43,400
odds logic screen six even five and a halfs hard

426
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:46,759
Rock and a couple other Sharper super Book five and

427
00:20:46,759 --> 00:20:50,039
a half, Heritage five and a half totals coming down

428
00:20:50,079 --> 00:20:52,480
as well, forty five and a half. Here, let's kind

429
00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:56,039
of break down these two teams. I know people are

430
00:20:56,279 --> 00:21:02,200
expecting Washington to be improved, right, but we have Jaden

431
00:21:02,279 --> 00:21:05,119
Daniels in his second year. Talk to me about those

432
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:09,160
sophomore quarterbacks and what defensive coordinators have in store for

433
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,880
them their second year. I know we've seen some of

434
00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:15,079
these guys kind of superseded expectations, but we typically see

435
00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:15,759
a regression.

436
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:18,839
Speaker 1: Sure. So, and again, if you missed last week's show,

437
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:23,319
we went through every team, all thirty two teams by

438
00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:25,640
division and talked about previews, what we thought was going

439
00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:28,000
to happen this year, talked about some of the divisional odds.

440
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:30,920
You know, the focus on today's show is much more

441
00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:33,359
about where the line is, where it's going, as opposed

442
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:35,440
to breaking down what we expect to see from the

443
00:21:35,559 --> 00:21:40,079
likes of Daniels and Russell Wilson this year. That being said, so,

444
00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:43,519
Washington made a bunch of win now moves in the offseason.

445
00:21:43,759 --> 00:21:47,480
All right, there's certainly a team that they're when you

446
00:21:47,559 --> 00:21:50,519
have the quarterback on the rookie deal where you're not

447
00:21:50,559 --> 00:21:53,200
paying the QB, you have money to pay elsewhere, and

448
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:56,079
when you have that opportunity to sign veterans, that's exactly

449
00:21:56,079 --> 00:21:59,039
what Washington did. That being said, when you look at

450
00:21:59,079 --> 00:22:01,720
what happened to Washing in last year, they were a

451
00:22:01,799 --> 00:22:05,000
team that absolutely feasted on the week all regular season,

452
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:06,720
now not in the postseason posting. They were good enough

453
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:09,559
to beat teams, and they sound supremely confident when you

454
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:13,240
talk about this squad and read the quotes coming out

455
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:15,640
of Washington. They're a team that expects to win this year.

456
00:22:15,799 --> 00:22:19,279
But obviously their expectations now where they weren't a year ago,

457
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:25,440
and certainly the Commander's schedule in twenty twenty five is

458
00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:30,359
significantly more difficult than it was in twenty twenty four.

459
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:34,160
My powering number for the game is Washington minus six.

460
00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:38,519
The Giants had a strong preseason three and zero against

461
00:22:38,559 --> 00:22:42,759
the spread, e stored thirty plus in every game. Washington

462
00:22:42,799 --> 00:22:46,039
got annihilated in every game in the preseason ozho and

463
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:49,799
three against the spread non competitive. That said, dan Quinn

464
00:22:49,839 --> 00:22:53,160
didn't care, and the Giants had a quarterback rotation that

465
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:55,480
any preseason team would love to have and they all

466
00:22:55,559 --> 00:22:58,119
got playing time. Now there were some seven and a

467
00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:01,000
half at the open in this ball game. It explains

468
00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:04,839
why you know the preseason suff this line has moved

469
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:07,039
because of the preseason where the Giants look good and

470
00:23:07,079 --> 00:23:08,960
Washington didn't. And now we've seen it from seven and

471
00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:10,119
a half as low as five and a half. Of

472
00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:12,640
some spots you know in the seven halfs were gone

473
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:14,920
by the end of May. It's not overstate them, but

474
00:23:15,519 --> 00:23:17,640
six and a half all summer now six now the

475
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,559
leading indicator books down to five and a half divisional games,

476
00:23:20,559 --> 00:23:23,839
we expect dog money, we expect under money total forty

477
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,279
six and a half all summer in forty six. Now

478
00:23:27,279 --> 00:23:29,920
we're looking at forty five and a halfs for this

479
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:32,000
boll game at a lot of books. So we've seen

480
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:34,359
dog money and under money, which what we expected these games.

481
00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:37,440
Russell Wilson played in August. Jing Daniels did see some

482
00:23:37,599 --> 00:23:39,799
action in Week two against the Bengals. That be said

483
00:23:39,799 --> 00:23:41,519
he didn't throw a pass and said he dropped back

484
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:44,839
and ended up scrambling for a touchdown. So that's one

485
00:23:44,839 --> 00:23:47,400
of those rare situations where yeah, do we count that

486
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:51,279
as date Jane Daniels playing. Yes, we knew even though

487
00:23:51,279 --> 00:23:54,599
we didn't throw a pass this very limited time on

488
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:56,000
the field in August.

489
00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:58,680
Speaker 3: All right, Teddy, let everybody know what you've got up

490
00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:01,279
over at wager talk dot com. You already mentioned we

491
00:24:01,319 --> 00:24:04,240
did some videos in June and July. Do you guys

492
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:07,400
want to go back in the wager talk YouTube channel.

493
00:24:07,519 --> 00:24:09,440
Check those out. You guys can see all of the

494
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:12,599
reports that Teddy did at wagertalk dot com as well.

495
00:24:12,599 --> 00:24:15,240
Speaker 2: A Teddy, you have absolutely crushed those.

496
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:17,759
Speaker 3: Kind of break those down for everybody to let them

497
00:24:17,799 --> 00:24:20,000
know if they're looking to purchase what they can expect.

498
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 1: So Week one over the last ten years, I have

499
00:24:23,519 --> 00:24:25,720
thirty wins and eleven losses for the clients. You know,

500
00:24:25,759 --> 00:24:27,400
I'm not putting out a ton of plays and average

501
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:30,599
a four per year, but I've hit too close to

502
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:33,079
three out of four of them seventy three percent over

503
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:35,079
the last ten years. I like Week one. Obviously, we

504
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:37,720
do our work over the summer. We pay attentional lines.

505
00:24:37,759 --> 00:24:40,559
I already have I think three plays posted. I'm waiting

506
00:24:40,599 --> 00:24:42,359
on the big one because I'm waiting for a number

507
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:44,039
and we haven't gotten it yet. And if we don't

508
00:24:44,039 --> 00:24:46,279
get it. I'm not going to play at large, but

509
00:24:47,319 --> 00:24:50,640
I expect to have at least one more this week.

510
00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:56,559
So take advantage the NFL Win Report. We put out

511
00:24:56,599 --> 00:25:00,359
part two last week with just a single ad, but

512
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,720
it was one that at the end of the preseason

513
00:25:02,759 --> 00:25:06,279
and post cuts it made. It made a ton of

514
00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:09,599
sense that the number wasn't where it should be. I'm

515
00:25:09,599 --> 00:25:11,480
pretty confident that play. We'll talk about that team in

516
00:25:11,839 --> 00:25:15,599
just a minute or two. Uh, but that's available on

517
00:25:15,599 --> 00:25:17,839
my page one, O, three and fifty two. That's a

518
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,799
twenty four year track record, seventeen and four with the

519
00:25:20,839 --> 00:25:24,000
five percent pig tickets. I take this stuff seriously. I

520
00:25:24,039 --> 00:25:27,920
live and breathe and die NFL for the next five months.

521
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:32,319
So check it out, wt Dot, buzzbackslash TC and we

522
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:34,440
got great packs. Its great offers if you want to

523
00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:37,279
get on board. And I always encourage people, don't buy

524
00:25:37,319 --> 00:25:40,440
a play, buy a package. Let's partner up. Let's see

525
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:42,920
we can do this football season. I'm expecting to make

526
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:45,480
us some money starting right here in Week one.

527
00:25:45,799 --> 00:25:51,279
Speaker 3: All right, Teddy, Cleveland just looks abysmal. Cincinnati a five

528
00:25:51,319 --> 00:25:54,480
and a half point road favorite in four and a

529
00:25:54,519 --> 00:25:56,759
half here in Florida at the hard Rock. That's a

530
00:25:56,759 --> 00:26:00,519
little perplexing. Forty eight is the highest on the Odds

531
00:26:00,599 --> 00:26:02,920
lodge of screen. We're pretty much painted forty seven and

532
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:06,079
a half here across the board. Talk to me about

533
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:09,440
these types of lines. I always love looking at that

534
00:26:09,759 --> 00:26:12,000
home underdog plus five and a half.

535
00:26:12,319 --> 00:26:13,359
Speaker 2: It's just the fish.

536
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,279
Speaker 3: I swear this is the fishiest line in the NFL.

537
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:18,480
People think I'm crazy. Maybe I should ask Ralph to

538
00:26:18,519 --> 00:26:21,960
pull the long term data for me, but I'm gonna

539
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:23,400
be on the Browns week one.

540
00:26:23,799 --> 00:26:27,160
Speaker 1: Tell me I'm crazy, Okay, you're crazy, okay, and I'll

541
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,119
tell you why you're crazy. All right, You're Craig. Craig.

542
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:33,759
Divisional game. So let's start this my powering number. And

543
00:26:33,799 --> 00:26:38,440
I'm not enamored with Cincinnati, and in particular, I parbaty number.

544
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:40,279
The game is still six and a half for the

545
00:26:40,319 --> 00:26:42,880
Bengals over the Browns. I'll tell you why this line

546
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:46,200
is low and why it's misleading. All right, Divisional game.

547
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:48,720
We expect money for the dog and the under has

548
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:50,759
been sitting five and a half. Six really hasn't moved

549
00:26:50,799 --> 00:26:56,319
much since the opener back in May. Total forty four

550
00:26:56,359 --> 00:27:00,799
and a half. Sorry, forty four forty seven a half.

551
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:03,160
That's my TYPEO forty seven a HALFS has been a slow,

552
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:06,640
steady flow of over money. The markets don't trust the

553
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:09,799
Cincinnati defense. They got gashed in the preseason. They were

554
00:27:09,839 --> 00:27:13,519
bad last year. But this is what the markets are

555
00:27:13,559 --> 00:27:18,200
missing in terms of the Cincinnati's defense. Every quote coming

556
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:20,599
out of the Bengals camp was we're not showing anything

557
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:22,880
from our brand new defense and bringing out Golden from

558
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:25,319
Notre Dame. Notre Dames defense wasn't as good yesterday. Did

559
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:30,079
you notice bringing out Golden? And they didn't do anything

560
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:33,000
in August. They didn't show anything to be basic vanilla

561
00:27:33,079 --> 00:27:36,000
coverage it so everyone's saying the same Bengals defense as

562
00:27:36,039 --> 00:27:38,880
last year, the same Bengals defense as last year. I

563
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:42,160
don't think it is, but they looked and they got

564
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:45,000
gashed in August. I think they'll be better in September.

565
00:27:45,519 --> 00:27:48,279
I do legitimately better, and I think the markets are

566
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:53,079
missing the nuance of what we saw from Cincinnati this summer.

567
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:56,240
And Flacco is certainly an over quarterback for Cleveland. Flaco

568
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:58,000
was a guy who's gonna chuck it up right. Head

569
00:27:58,039 --> 00:28:01,519
receivers make plays, does. Cleveland had many receivers that can

570
00:28:01,599 --> 00:28:05,680
make plays. I haven't seen any. Two meetings last year,

571
00:28:06,079 --> 00:28:09,279
Cincinnati covered minus five and minus sorry, minus five and

572
00:28:09,279 --> 00:28:12,200
a half and minus ten. Both games stayed under. This

573
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:15,039
has been a very under series, only one over in

574
00:28:15,079 --> 00:28:17,319
this series since twenty twenty one, five to one and

575
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:20,160
one to the under the last seven. Flacco did get

576
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:22,400
a little bit of playing time against the Rams a

577
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:24,720
week three of the preseason. Burrow saw got plenty of

578
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:27,359
and Burrow was in multiple games. The boy that offense

579
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:31,279
looked good with Burrow on the field the first two weeks.

580
00:28:31,319 --> 00:28:34,799
So if you like Cincinnati in theory, you're getting a

581
00:28:34,799 --> 00:28:37,599
bargain price because the wise guys don't trust their defense.

582
00:28:38,279 --> 00:28:40,680
Their defense might be better than last year. It might

583
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,759
be better than they looked. That being said, and the

584
00:28:43,799 --> 00:28:46,759
Bengals are a team. The depth isn't there for Cincinnati.

585
00:28:46,799 --> 00:28:49,240
They're probably gonna be at their best in September. You know,

586
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:52,680
they played off. They paid all their stars, which means

587
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:59,960
the bottom of this roster is dicey. So Cincinnati, while healthy,

588
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:02,039
will be a bet on team. We'll see how healthy

589
00:29:02,039 --> 00:29:05,839
theyst day. Because the backups on this squad leave something

590
00:29:05,839 --> 00:29:08,400
to be desired on both sides of the football.

591
00:29:08,839 --> 00:29:10,599
Speaker 3: I just wanted to take a moment to thank all

592
00:29:10,599 --> 00:29:12,319
of you guys for hanging out with us here on

593
00:29:12,799 --> 00:29:14,799
Labor Day Monday. Teddy and I are gonna be here

594
00:29:14,839 --> 00:29:18,599
every single Monday. Almost two thousand people watching on my

595
00:29:18,759 --> 00:29:21,359
ex almost a thousand on wager talking, almost a thousand

596
00:29:21,799 --> 00:29:24,079
live on the YouTube channel. So shout out to all

597
00:29:24,119 --> 00:29:27,400
of you guys. Jump in, join the comments section. It's

598
00:29:27,559 --> 00:29:31,759
rowdy already, Teddy scolding me. People are appalled the fact

599
00:29:31,759 --> 00:29:34,119
that Teddy would scold me. Guys, I deserve to be

600
00:29:34,119 --> 00:29:37,279
scolded a lot after my college football picks this weekend.

601
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:39,559
That being said, Teddy, let's get right back into some

602
00:29:39,599 --> 00:29:44,839
more NFL Vegas New England. Okay, I'm gonna start off

603
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:48,480
by saying this. I considered zigging, not zagging with the

604
00:29:48,559 --> 00:29:50,920
Survivor pick and going New England. This is gonna be

605
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:53,960
one of the few times they are favorite this year.

606
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:56,680
Line was three all summer. Now of a sudden two

607
00:29:56,720 --> 00:30:00,720
and a half start popping up. Who No, I don't

608
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:05,119
think I have the guts to go with the Patriots.

609
00:30:05,279 --> 00:30:08,440
With Mike Rabel in his debut there in New England

610
00:30:08,759 --> 00:30:09,920
talk to me about this game.

611
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:13,119
Speaker 1: So when I scold you, Kelly, I scolled you with love.

612
00:30:14,519 --> 00:30:16,640
And I'm a little bitch when it comes to this

613
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:18,599
show in general. I'm a bitch when you know, I'm like,

614
00:30:18,839 --> 00:30:20,240
I want to do it this way, don't. I want

615
00:30:20,279 --> 00:30:23,640
to talk about it my way. It's okay, It's what

616
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:26,799
I do, and that's why sometimes it's difficult to find

617
00:30:26,839 --> 00:30:31,000
people that want to work with me. That being said,

618
00:30:32,079 --> 00:30:34,839
for the Raiders and the Patriots, my powering number in

619
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,240
New England to slash two and a half. It's actually

620
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:39,440
two and a quarter. For this boggab The line was

621
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:41,680
three all summer. The two and a half have been

622
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:47,039
popping the last couple of days, total from forty four

623
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,759
down to forty two. Last night it was forty three.

624
00:30:51,359 --> 00:30:58,279
Let's do one emergency betty alert. Let's do it. Anybody,

625
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:01,279
we got noise, we got flat there we go okay, yeah,

626
00:31:01,319 --> 00:31:01,759
no where.

627
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 2: So we okay?

628
00:31:02,759 --> 00:31:04,599
Speaker 3: So the comments section said they wanted to go back

629
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:06,440
to the Waynes world, So we.

630
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:08,119
Speaker 2: Got to discuss. You guys have to tell us how

631
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:09,759
you want to do the emergency betting alerts.

632
00:31:09,799 --> 00:31:13,039
Speaker 3: Because Teddy did not like Week one Dan's choice of audio.

633
00:31:13,079 --> 00:31:15,799
We're gonna, we're gonna, we're gonna get through some growing pains. Okay, guys,

634
00:31:15,799 --> 00:31:17,599
we're gonna work it through this together. You guys tell

635
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:20,039
us the kind of audio you want to hear. I

636
00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:22,279
thought the headline was a little jarring. It reminded me

637
00:31:22,279 --> 00:31:24,480
of alarm clock too early in the morning out.

638
00:31:24,359 --> 00:31:26,319
Speaker 2: There in the West coast. But we do have props.

639
00:31:26,799 --> 00:31:28,599
Speaker 3: So anytime you guys see one of these, that means

640
00:31:28,599 --> 00:31:30,720
it is time to get up in your odd screen,

641
00:31:30,839 --> 00:31:32,559
open your sports books.

642
00:31:33,079 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 2: Teddy has an emergency betting alert for you.

643
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:39,799
Speaker 1: If you like the Raiders Patriots over bet it right now,

644
00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:42,960
sooner rather than later. Okay, this and again, so we

645
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:45,680
talk about where the number is going. Aligned to three

646
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:47,759
all summer two and ass popping. The last couple of days,

647
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:50,599
the total was from forty four down to forty two,

648
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,319
was back up to forty three last night forty three

649
00:31:53,359 --> 00:31:55,480
and a half. This morning, forty four is popping up.

650
00:31:55,559 --> 00:31:59,319
Right now, we're seeing a steam move to the over

651
00:32:00,079 --> 00:32:03,079
were the Raiders Patriots? If you want that, you can

652
00:32:03,119 --> 00:32:05,880
still find forty three and a Half's looking Anthony os

653
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:09,039
Logic Live Odd Screen and that's one you would get

654
00:32:09,279 --> 00:32:14,599
sooner rather than later. The markets have moved against the

655
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:19,119
Patriots this past week. They didn't like cut down day

656
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:20,920
for New England. I didn't like cut down day for

657
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:23,279
New England. Rabel put his stamp on the roster, which

658
00:32:23,319 --> 00:32:25,759
means lots of veterans were showing the door. They don't

659
00:32:25,759 --> 00:32:30,400
have anyone from last year's draft last year on the

660
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:33,240
roster except for Drake May. He's the one guy that

661
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,160
made the team healthy. There are a couple guys on

662
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:38,759
ir but you know, when you throw an entire draft

663
00:32:38,799 --> 00:32:43,079
out the window. There's been some anti Patriots sentiments in

664
00:32:43,119 --> 00:32:47,160
the markets, and again, Rabel's a character guy, and character

665
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:48,759
guys made the team and that may work out very

666
00:32:48,759 --> 00:32:52,000
well for New England when all said and done. But

667
00:32:52,759 --> 00:32:57,079
from a market standpoint and the other thing. The Patriots,

668
00:32:57,359 --> 00:33:00,480
the early season schedule is relatively weak. They be favored

669
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:04,079
in half a dozen games over the first nine weeks

670
00:33:04,079 --> 00:33:07,000
of the season. In fact, I think the offseason dozen

671
00:33:07,079 --> 00:33:09,920
of the lines had them at minus one or higher

672
00:33:10,359 --> 00:33:13,440
in the vast majority of those contests. So we assuming

673
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:15,640
that they don't stink up the joint, New England will

674
00:33:15,799 --> 00:33:18,400
be favored in a halflets agains because their schedule early on

675
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:23,519
is so easy. Gino and Drake may both played in August,

676
00:33:23,519 --> 00:33:25,839
So we have two quarterbacks who've seen the field already,

677
00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:31,240
not two quarterbacks primed to struggle necessarily in their debut.

678
00:33:31,279 --> 00:33:33,319
And again, lots of over money over the course of

679
00:33:33,359 --> 00:33:37,200
the last twenty four hours between the Raiders and New England.

680
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 3: All right, the worst team in the league, the New

681
00:33:40,319 --> 00:33:45,720
Orleans Saints, now pretty much six across the Odds logic screen.

682
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:48,799
This is, uh six and a half's even Teddy. Yeah,

683
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:50,720
we've seen some six and a halfs at Pinnacle. We're

684
00:33:50,759 --> 00:33:53,119
seeing some six and a halfs at.

685
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:55,319
Speaker 2: Buck Guy Super Book.

686
00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 3: Oh boy, it looks to be a very rough season

687
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:01,519
for this team. Talk about the Saints, who are not

688
00:34:01,519 --> 00:34:04,279
favored in any game this year, versus the Arizona Cardinals.

689
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:07,960
Speaker 1: So I'm relatively high on Arizona, relatively low on low

690
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:10,079
on New Orleans, and my numbers six on the game.

691
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:13,400
So you know, I have the Saints parade as the

692
00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:15,119
weakest team in the league and my number is only six.

693
00:34:15,199 --> 00:34:16,760
So at six and a half, it's starting to get

694
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:19,639
a little rich here. If you like the Cardinals, it's

695
00:34:19,679 --> 00:34:21,320
been a one way line open four and a half,

696
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:22,960
It was six by early August, moved to six and

697
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:25,239
a half in the last week or so. The Saints.

698
00:34:25,519 --> 00:34:27,440
You know, I talk about a team favor to have

699
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:29,639
the worst record in the league. That doesn't mean they're chalk,

700
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:32,840
they're thirty two teams. But the Saints are the team

701
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:35,000
that's being viewed as most likely to have the worst

702
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:36,719
record in the NFL. They got fifty million in dead

703
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:39,480
money for players no longer on the roster. Total's done

704
00:34:39,519 --> 00:34:44,599
absolutely nothing, sitting basically forty two and a half all summer,

705
00:34:44,639 --> 00:34:48,519
sitting forty two and a half right now. Gannon zero

706
00:34:48,599 --> 00:34:56,039
and two four the Cardinals in season debuts last year,

707
00:34:56,079 --> 00:34:58,199
they covered from me by a hook thanks to a

708
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:00,840
kick return touchdown and a two point in conversion. And

709
00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:03,320
I was very very happy with that. I was lucky

710
00:35:03,519 --> 00:35:05,159
to win that game. They were not that they led.

711
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:07,719
They led by a touchdown at halftime, and the second

712
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:09,400
half of that game was really ugly, and the kick

713
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:15,719
return touchdown save me. So cheers remembering Week one bets

714
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:19,440
from a year ago. But nonetheless, Jonathan Gannon's not won

715
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:21,400
an opening day game yet, and he's laying a big

716
00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:25,320
price here. Rattler played a bunch in August. Kyler Murray

717
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:27,920
played versus Kansas City in Week one and then didn't

718
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:30,599
see the field again. But Spencer Ratler who won the

719
00:35:31,559 --> 00:35:34,639
So that's worth the questioning, did Spencer Ratler win the

720
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:37,920
job or did Tyler shuck lose it? A little bit

721
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:39,639
from Colum Ay, a little bit from Colum b but

722
00:35:39,679 --> 00:35:42,800
certainly from a powering standpoint. I got in New Orleans

723
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:45,639
ranked thirty two out of thirty two teams. They're worse

724
00:35:45,679 --> 00:35:48,320
than the Browns in my numbers, and the team that again,

725
00:35:50,079 --> 00:35:53,400
we expect growing pains, and I'm not surprised that we've

726
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:55,800
seen a steady flow of Arizona money. It's something I

727
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:59,480
predicted all the way back in May or June or July,

728
00:35:59,599 --> 00:36:03,639
whenever I first talked about this game. We tally said

729
00:36:03,639 --> 00:36:05,760
that the money has to come for Arizona here, and

730
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:07,280
it has all right.

731
00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:09,599
Speaker 3: Fishy line here, Tampa Bay two and a half point

732
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:13,800
road favorite at Atlanta forty six, forty six and a half.

733
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:17,920
Kind of a couple of different shops making a stand

734
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:18,960
there on the total.

735
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 2: Teddy, here's the thing with Tampa.

736
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:23,679
Speaker 3: I've been living down here for four years, and I

737
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:26,280
want to make a case for their defense every single year.

738
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:28,519
I think their defense is going to take a step

739
00:36:28,519 --> 00:36:30,960
back this year. Personal opinion, I think we've started to

740
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:33,920
see some regression on their part, Lots of hype surrounding

741
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:36,239
Baker Mayfield. I think this is one of the fishier

742
00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:41,079
lines on the board. Talk to me about Michael PENNOCKX

743
00:36:41,159 --> 00:36:43,280
Junior versus Baker Mayfield.

744
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:45,239
Speaker 1: So you have to talk to me about what a

745
00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:48,079
fishy line is because my number says Tampa Bay minus two.

746
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:49,880
There was another one you said it was fishy and

747
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:52,000
my number was right there as well, So like, what's

748
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:55,119
a fish what's that? Why does that line feel dice

749
00:36:55,199 --> 00:36:55,400
to you?

750
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:58,079
Speaker 3: I'm gonna say it's Ariel kind of coined the term,

751
00:36:58,199 --> 00:37:00,000
or maybe somebody else said and she started using it.

752
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:01,679
And it's just a line that if you just look

753
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:03,400
at the board you don't think of anything else.

754
00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:06,519
Speaker 2: You're like that that seems a little odd, you know.

755
00:37:06,639 --> 00:37:09,199
Speaker 3: I feel like Tampa Bay minus three and a half

756
00:37:09,599 --> 00:37:11,199
would be like, well, then we're gonna take a stand.

757
00:37:11,199 --> 00:37:12,519
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay's a much better team.

758
00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:17,280
Speaker 3: Atlanta's covered the last two against Tampa granted that was

759
00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:19,880
with Kirk Cousins under center. What are we expecting to

760
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:23,119
see from Michael pennockx junior here that we didn't see

761
00:37:23,119 --> 00:37:24,159
from Kirk Cousins.

762
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 1: So Michael Pettick junior was pretty done good. And hey,

763
00:37:29,559 --> 00:37:31,320
my Michael Pennant junior was good enough to get Kailin

764
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:34,880
to bore the Alabama job. There you go all right,

765
00:37:35,599 --> 00:37:41,400
like legit, how good he was? And I'll just leave

766
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:44,599
it at that. And again my partnering number here is

767
00:37:44,639 --> 00:37:48,119
to Tampa minus two, divisional home dog. We expect money

768
00:37:48,119 --> 00:37:50,280
for the dog in the under Atlanta too. As you

769
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:52,159
mentioned two and oh straight up two and oh straight

770
00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:54,639
up nats against Tampa last year. One was an overtime,

771
00:37:54,639 --> 00:37:57,000
the other one came by five points. Cousins was at

772
00:37:57,079 --> 00:38:00,440
quarterback both times. This line was as low as minus

773
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:03,760
one over the summer started two and a half and

774
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:07,519
is basically sitting two and a half today. Total forty

775
00:38:07,559 --> 00:38:09,800
eight at the opener, fed up to forty nine. Was

776
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:11,920
forty eight forty eight and a half about ten days ago.

777
00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:15,519
Steady flow of under money since why the under money?

778
00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:18,760
CAYLEB McGarry the season injury injury forer Atlanta now mccary's

779
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:22,159
the right tackle, but Panis is a lefty, that's his

780
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:28,480
blind side. McGary's backup Storm Norton, he's on injured reserve two.

781
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:31,039
So what they do? They just added three new linemen.

782
00:38:31,039 --> 00:38:33,639
They made a trade with Seattle to get Michael Jirell,

783
00:38:34,119 --> 00:38:36,679
who started three games for the Seahawks last year. The

784
00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:40,920
quote from Raheem Morris quote, it would be unrealistic for

785
00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:43,440
me to tell you that the new lineman, well, they'll

786
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:45,760
be ready to play Week one. I have seen it

787
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:47,480
done before at different positions. I've seen it done in

788
00:38:47,519 --> 00:38:49,239
the tackle position. But to beat some of the guys

789
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:50,599
who are here, who have been doing some of the

790
00:38:50,679 --> 00:38:55,480
stuff we've been doing, will be pretty hard. So basically

791
00:38:55,559 --> 00:38:59,079
we're probably looking at maybe Elijah Wilkinson to be the

792
00:38:59,159 --> 00:39:02,599
right tackle Penis's blind side. Here, it's a concern for

793
00:39:02,679 --> 00:39:05,039
Atlanta the money to come for the under. And oh,

794
00:39:05,039 --> 00:39:07,400
by the way, Baker Mayfield didn't play in the preseason,

795
00:39:07,599 --> 00:39:10,360
and neither did Michael Pennock, so maybe that's why more

796
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:13,599
money has come for the under in this one. Forty

797
00:39:13,639 --> 00:39:14,960
six and a half the current number.

798
00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 3: Our next up on our long list of breakdowns. That's right,

799
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:21,559
every single Monday Teddy and I are gonna.

800
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:23,039
Speaker 2: Go through all of the games.

801
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:27,800
Speaker 3: This is the game that everybody's gonna play for Survivor Teddy,

802
00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:30,760
and it makes me uneasy. I don't think there's a no,

803
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:32,679
there's not a different I should take out that case

804
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:34,320
at home and lunches me. I'm want to take out

805
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:36,320
the kc Helman replace it with the Denver Brondos Elmon

806
00:39:36,599 --> 00:39:37,639
right after the show.

807
00:39:38,519 --> 00:39:40,519
Speaker 2: But it does kind of concern me.

808
00:39:40,599 --> 00:39:43,719
Speaker 3: We mentioned sophomore quarterbacks Bone Nicks in a second year

809
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:47,639
there in Denver, Sean Payton. Now we're seeing eighth pop

810
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:49,800
up right. We saw seven and a half's for a

811
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:51,800
better part of the summer forty two and a half.

812
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:54,199
Talk to me about Denver, Tennessee Teddy.

813
00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:56,880
Speaker 1: So my party number, my powering number on the game

814
00:39:57,280 --> 00:40:01,320
Denver minus nine and a half. Nine of the Broncos

815
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:03,880
ten wins last year came by nine points or more

816
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:07,199
two scores. All right, now, let's talk about this line

817
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:10,199
right now, went seven and a half to eight after

818
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:13,960
preseason in the last week. Some books, there are books

819
00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:16,760
that are worried about we call it teaser protection lines.

820
00:40:17,159 --> 00:40:20,400
They go boom seven and a half to nine or

821
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:22,079
seven and a half to eight and then eight in

822
00:40:22,679 --> 00:40:24,039
there's no eight and a half for those books that

823
00:40:24,079 --> 00:40:25,679
you go straight to nine, and then we call that

824
00:40:25,679 --> 00:40:28,400
teaser protections. You don't get the six point teaser, so

825
00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:32,880
we'll call eight the prevailing number. There's nine's out there

826
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:35,400
for teaser protection books, and there's still a couple seven

827
00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:39,519
and a half's out there. Four Denver Total hasn't moved

828
00:40:39,559 --> 00:40:43,079
one iota from the opener until this morning. One more.

829
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:44,920
I mean, it's it's pretty much gone right now, but

830
00:40:44,920 --> 00:40:46,199
I don't think it's gone all the way. So let's

831
00:40:46,199 --> 00:40:49,639
emergency Betty alert one more time. If you'll like Denver

832
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:56,280
and tennessee over Bettett sooner rather than later. Forty two

833
00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:58,280
and a half already of most books was forty one

834
00:40:58,360 --> 00:41:00,679
and a half last night. There is still forty one

835
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:03,639
and a half. Send forty two's out there for you

836
00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:06,840
to pick off if you want, if you're interested in

837
00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:08,880
this total. So if you like the overbed it sooner,

838
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:12,639
if you like the under wait. Bo Nicks played in

839
00:41:12,679 --> 00:41:15,719
two preseason games, cam Ward played in all three, So

840
00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:18,159
we have two quarterbacks who are ready, and of course

841
00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:21,400
we have rookie QB in Ward making his first career

842
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:26,639
road start. They have not done particularly well prior to

843
00:41:26,679 --> 00:41:31,119
Caleb Williams. Caleb Williams win last year at Tennessee in

844
00:41:31,199 --> 00:41:34,320
Week one. Rookie quarterbacks oh seven and one ats in

845
00:41:34,360 --> 00:41:39,920
their season openers over the previous a few seasons.

846
00:41:38,679 --> 00:41:42,000
Speaker 3: More divisional home dogs, more under money.

847
00:41:42,039 --> 00:41:46,199
Speaker 2: We got San Francisco here minus two. There are a

848
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:46,840
couple two and a.

849
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:51,719
Speaker 3: Half's for the Niner Seattle total of forty four and

850
00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:54,719
a half, pretty much across the board here, Teddy God,

851
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:57,480
there's so many great teaser spots, and I wrote it down.

852
00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:01,519
No teasers week one, No teasers week one. I need

853
00:42:01,559 --> 00:42:04,480
to show some discipline because there are so many juicy spots.

854
00:42:05,119 --> 00:42:07,719
Talk to me about the Niners. Who is my Super

855
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:11,199
Bowl pick? At twenty to one on the road in Seattle.

856
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:14,440
Speaker 1: So my powering number for the game is San fran

857
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:17,960
minus one and a half. The market's a little bit

858
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:21,239
higher than that divisional dome dog, so we spend theory,

859
00:42:21,239 --> 00:42:22,960
expect money for the dog and the under Last year,

860
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:25,760
both teams won on the road in this series. San

861
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:27,760
fran opened one and a half, with two and a

862
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:30,480
half since the beginning of August for a preseason some

863
00:42:30,639 --> 00:42:33,639
books are down to minus two in the last day

864
00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:36,239
or two. The forty nine Ers injury report is not pretty,

865
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:39,440
and particularly at wide receiver. The injury report as ugly.

866
00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:41,239
As a guest, it's going to be Ricky Piersoll and

867
00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:48,440
who for for brock perty to throw to. You know,

868
00:42:48,519 --> 00:42:52,199
Brandon IA's hook and John Jennings's hook is hurt, and

869
00:42:52,280 --> 00:42:55,679
you know there could be issues at receiver in this

870
00:42:55,760 --> 00:42:59,000
game for San Fran total forty six in May, forty

871
00:42:59,039 --> 00:43:01,760
five in June, and lie down to forty four this

872
00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:04,119
past week. There are again lots of concerns about the

873
00:43:04,119 --> 00:43:08,719
forty nine Ers wide receiver injuries and the party played

874
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:11,880
in preseason, so did Sam Darnold. Best preseason of any

875
00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:14,800
rookie that no one's talking about is the Seattle's wide

876
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:17,360
receiver Tory Horton at of Colorado State. He was a

877
00:43:17,360 --> 00:43:19,400
fifth rounder because he was hurt last year. The guy

878
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:22,159
was an absolute sensation in camp and was an absolute

879
00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:26,000
difference maker on the field for Seattle. Watch out for

880
00:43:26,079 --> 00:43:29,480
Tory Horton. If you want some deep sleepers for your

881
00:43:29,679 --> 00:43:31,719
fantasy team or some overs in Week one.

882
00:43:32,599 --> 00:43:35,760
Speaker 3: All right, We're gonna go right in to Detroit at

883
00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:38,159
green Bay. Green Bay now a two and a half

884
00:43:38,199 --> 00:43:42,119
point favorite total forty seven and a half Teddy over

885
00:43:42,119 --> 00:43:45,760
the summer. This one was a pickum. Mike Parsons now

886
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:49,559
for the green Bay defense. How much of an impact

887
00:43:49,599 --> 00:43:51,119
do you think he's gonna make here week one?

888
00:43:51,440 --> 00:43:52,840
Speaker 1: I'll take the under on his impact.

889
00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:53,719
Speaker 2: Okay.

890
00:43:54,840 --> 00:43:56,960
Speaker 1: My party number is green Bay minus one. I think

891
00:43:57,000 --> 00:43:59,280
the markets have overacted a little bit, you know. And

892
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:01,360
you talked about to pick out there at the open.

893
00:44:01,679 --> 00:44:03,719
It was green Bay minus one and a half all summer,

894
00:44:04,079 --> 00:44:07,679
then minus twos now minus two and a half's total

895
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:10,280
from forty nine down to forty seven just in the

896
00:44:10,360 --> 00:44:13,079
last week after the Micah Parsons deal. You have two

897
00:44:13,199 --> 00:44:15,920
new coordinators in Detroit, obviously, Aaron Glenn and Ben Johnson

898
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:18,800
now head coaches. At one point, Detroit to lost twenty

899
00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:21,599
four straight in Lambeau that ended in twenty fifteen. There's

900
00:44:21,599 --> 00:44:23,760
six and one straight up the last seven against the Packers.

901
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:27,119
Only lost at home on Thanksgiving up minus eight last

902
00:44:27,199 --> 00:44:29,639
year thirty four to thirty one and twenty four to fourteen.

903
00:44:29,679 --> 00:44:33,280
Detroit Lions had four preseason games. Shreed Goff didn't take

904
00:44:33,320 --> 00:44:36,559
a snap. Jordan Love completed one pass in Week one,

905
00:44:37,039 --> 00:44:40,920
didn't take another snap, had surgery on his non throwing hand,

906
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:44,679
was a limited participant in practice. It looks like he's

907
00:44:44,679 --> 00:44:46,639
gonna have to wear a brace, you know, quote. It

908
00:44:46,639 --> 00:44:48,239
will be some weeks having to brace it up. This

909
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:50,320
is loves quote. Some weeks having to brace it up

910
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:51,840
and just keep it protected. It's one of those things.

911
00:44:51,880 --> 00:44:53,559
Will play it by year as they start getting into games,

912
00:44:53,599 --> 00:44:56,079
seeing how it feels as you get back to live contact,

913
00:44:56,239 --> 00:44:59,360
But there will be some time having the brace. Still

914
00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:01,360
his quote is not as big a deal as you

915
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:06,039
guys think it might be. So Jordan Love has gone

916
00:45:06,079 --> 00:45:09,639
through surgery, Jared Goff didn't take a snap, and we

917
00:45:09,679 --> 00:45:13,800
have an impact defensive player for Green Bay who may

918
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:15,559
not play a ton of snaps in this ballgame, but

919
00:45:15,599 --> 00:45:18,559
if he has one impactful one that could affect the total.

920
00:45:18,719 --> 00:45:20,679
As I mentioned, we've seen lots of under money over

921
00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:22,679
the course of the last week or two.

922
00:45:23,039 --> 00:45:25,119
Speaker 3: All right, Teddy, rams down to two and a half

923
00:45:25,159 --> 00:45:28,880
here across the board, total forty four. Biggest question mark

924
00:45:28,880 --> 00:45:31,119
for me is how healthy is Matthew Stafford.

925
00:45:32,199 --> 00:45:34,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good question. My powering number for this

926
00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:37,760
one rams minus one and a half, so I'm a

927
00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:39,719
little bit lower in the markets. There were minus threes

928
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:41,800
at the Open. It was minus two and a half

929
00:45:41,880 --> 00:45:44,360
as soon as Stafford reported. As soon as training camps

930
00:45:44,320 --> 00:45:46,880
opened and Stafford couldn't play with his bad back late

931
00:45:46,960 --> 00:45:50,320
July early August. Really hasn't moved since then. In the markets.

932
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:52,400
I'm not convinced it's going to go to three. There's

933
00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:55,800
a chance that could go back up to three. If

934
00:45:55,800 --> 00:45:59,719
you like la I would buy him now. You can

935
00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:02,800
even two's out there if you shop around. Total was

936
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:05,320
forty six off summer started getting back down with Stafford

937
00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:07,880
sitting out, got as low as forty three and a half.

938
00:46:08,159 --> 00:46:10,440
It has been back back up to forty four with

939
00:46:10,519 --> 00:46:14,519
Stafford back at practice. McVeigh was five and oh Week one,

940
00:46:14,880 --> 00:46:16,840
but he's lost straight up and against the spread twice

941
00:46:17,280 --> 00:46:19,000
in the last three years. Oh. Last year's coming with

942
00:46:19,039 --> 00:46:20,920
an asterisk, they were plus five and a half. They

943
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:25,239
lost by six in overtime at Detroit Tamiko Ryan's one

944
00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:27,519
and one straight up week Colts. He beat the one

945
00:46:27,519 --> 00:46:29,280
on one straight up in Week ones. He beat the

946
00:46:29,280 --> 00:46:32,400
Colts on the road last year in straight up fashion.

947
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:36,519
Stafford obviously didn't play in the preseasons. CJ. Stroud did

948
00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:39,960
play a couple of series Week two against Carolina, so

949
00:46:40,039 --> 00:46:43,280
he's not coming into the season without having played at all.

950
00:46:44,199 --> 00:46:46,280
Speaker 3: I'm over here mess with my Odds logic screen, one

951
00:46:46,320 --> 00:46:47,960
of my favorite things. So you can do Teddy's you

952
00:46:47,960 --> 00:46:50,280
can move the books around. And I made the mistake

953
00:46:50,280 --> 00:46:52,519
of letting bright. He's my Odds logic screen on my computer,

954
00:46:52,519 --> 00:46:53,840
and he screwed up all my books.

955
00:46:54,119 --> 00:46:56,880
Speaker 2: No one, I'm having problems. I'm going why's the hot

956
00:46:56,960 --> 00:46:58,519
Rock over getting? Super Book should be here?

957
00:46:58,599 --> 00:47:05,360
Speaker 3: Circa okay address I digress AFC potential preview Baltimore Buffalo

958
00:47:05,960 --> 00:47:09,679
pick them at both super Book and Circa Pinnacles Baltimore

959
00:47:09,840 --> 00:47:11,800
minus one hard Rock.

960
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:14,559
Speaker 2: Buffalo minus one, fifteen and a half is the total.

961
00:47:15,199 --> 00:47:19,639
Speaker 1: So mind powering number is Buffalo minus one for this

962
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:23,880
Boggain and let's do one lay. I didn't know if

963
00:47:23,880 --> 00:47:25,519
you'd have a bunch of merging bening alerts. We have

964
00:47:25,559 --> 00:47:27,360
a couple, and they're all to do with totals. Let's

965
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:30,199
emergency ben alert this total right here, right now. Doodle

966
00:47:30,239 --> 00:47:31,519
loop doodle oop, doodle up.

967
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:34,400
Speaker 3: I'm telling you we're bringing back next week already already

968
00:47:34,440 --> 00:47:36,400
message him on Slack. When Dan's back, he has to

969
00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:40,039
bring back the Wayne's World music. The comment section has spoken,

970
00:47:40,519 --> 00:47:40,920
I love it.

971
00:47:41,039 --> 00:47:45,079
Speaker 1: I I'm on that was my That's that was the

972
00:47:45,119 --> 00:47:47,320
first thing that came to mind the very first time

973
00:47:47,360 --> 00:47:49,039
we did it. I'm like, you know, and I'm like,

974
00:47:49,039 --> 00:47:51,599
all right, that works for me and Wayne's World. Even

975
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:54,239
the movie hasn't really held up, but the cultural reference

976
00:47:54,280 --> 00:47:54,760
still has.

977
00:47:55,159 --> 00:47:55,920
Speaker 2: I would agree with that.

978
00:47:56,400 --> 00:47:59,559
Speaker 1: Yeah. So anyhow, my number is Buffalo minus one Power Ratings.

979
00:47:59,599 --> 00:48:03,079
Why is this total? However? Is worth talking right now?

980
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:05,280
Highest total on the board. This is the highest total

981
00:48:05,320 --> 00:48:07,320
on the board. Was fifty two and a half last week,

982
00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:09,800
was fifty one and a half last night. I'm seeing

983
00:48:09,960 --> 00:48:12,280
fifty and a half's right now. There are still fifty

984
00:48:12,360 --> 00:48:15,960
ones out there. If you like the under for Baltimore Buffalo,

985
00:48:16,360 --> 00:48:19,119
bet that sooner rather than later. The money is flowing

986
00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:23,000
to the under on Monday morning here on Labor Day.

987
00:48:23,119 --> 00:48:26,639
Last year, these two teams played a couple of memorable games.

988
00:48:26,679 --> 00:48:28,239
The Ravens beat him thirty five to ten in the

989
00:48:28,280 --> 00:48:31,159
regular season, and Buffalo won twenty seven to twenty five

990
00:48:31,199 --> 00:48:33,000
in the playoffs. That was a mark Andrews drop two

991
00:48:33,039 --> 00:48:38,039
point conversion game for the Ravens. Buffalo minus two all summer,

992
00:48:38,400 --> 00:48:41,400
down to minus one in August, down to Pickham this

993
00:48:41,639 --> 00:48:44,480
past week. The market certainly respecting Harbow. He's eleven and

994
00:48:44,519 --> 00:48:47,199
five straight up. Week one lost to the Chiefs last

995
00:48:47,280 --> 00:48:50,920
year on Thursday Night after the replay review negated Baltimore's

996
00:48:50,960 --> 00:48:53,920
touchdown on the final play of the game. McDermott, pretty

997
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:56,880
good Week one, six and two last year. I already

998
00:48:56,880 --> 00:48:58,960
talked about that thirty four to twenty eight win against

999
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:02,320
Arizona where they trailed halftime, gave up a kick return touchdown,

1000
00:49:02,519 --> 00:49:05,000
and still were able to win the game by six points.

1001
00:49:05,719 --> 00:49:09,639
Josh Allen has played on every preseason every year. This year,

1002
00:49:10,039 --> 00:49:12,519
Josh Allen did not take a snap in the preseason.

1003
00:49:13,039 --> 00:49:16,239
Lamar Jackson did not take a snap in the preseason either,

1004
00:49:16,400 --> 00:49:20,440
So two qbs who have not seen playing time in August.

1005
00:49:20,599 --> 00:49:24,119
That two could be affecting this total. Getting bad down.

1006
00:49:24,639 --> 00:49:28,039
Speaker 3: All right, last but not least, Monday Night football Chicago

1007
00:49:28,559 --> 00:49:32,400
at Minnesota. Excuse me, Minnesota at Chicago. Chicago was minus

1008
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:34,840
one over the summer. Now I'm Minnesota minus one and

1009
00:49:34,880 --> 00:49:37,400
a half. Total forty three and a half. It's any

1010
00:49:37,519 --> 00:49:41,360
time to break our film producer's heart. Tell me why

1011
00:49:41,679 --> 00:49:44,440
Minnesota is such a better team than his Chicago Bears.

1012
00:49:45,719 --> 00:49:50,079
Speaker 1: Maybe, Uh, this game. I'm fast, So I'm fascinated by

1013
00:49:50,159 --> 00:49:54,480
this game, I really am, because there's a well, let's

1014
00:49:54,480 --> 00:49:59,679
talk about it. My number Minnesota minus two. The markets

1015
00:50:00,159 --> 00:50:02,519
one one and a half right now, and you know

1016
00:50:02,559 --> 00:50:06,360
what's number done? It opened, Chicago opened minus one, got

1017
00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:09,440
bet down to pick them in July. It's been Minnesota

1018
00:50:09,639 --> 00:50:12,599
minus two most of August. And that's you know, I mean,

1019
00:50:12,639 --> 00:50:14,639
there's ones one and a half is out there right now,

1020
00:50:15,440 --> 00:50:18,440
so we've seen a little bit of Bears money. Total

1021
00:50:18,559 --> 00:50:21,599
open forty five, got bet as low as forty three.

1022
00:50:21,800 --> 00:50:23,679
Now I'm seeing forty three and a half's out there,

1023
00:50:23,800 --> 00:50:27,320
so it didn't get me lower than forty three. Minnesota

1024
00:50:27,440 --> 00:50:29,760
has pretty much dominated this series seven and one straight

1025
00:50:29,840 --> 00:50:32,320
up the last eight meetings since twenty twenty. The only

1026
00:50:32,440 --> 00:50:35,519
Bears win without an ugly game twelve to ten. They

1027
00:50:35,599 --> 00:50:39,880
win last year two meetings, Minnesota won them both thirty

1028
00:50:39,920 --> 00:50:42,480
to twenty seven and overtime and thirty to twelve, so

1029
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:47,440
their offense worked in both those contests, so Jajon McCarthy

1030
00:50:47,559 --> 00:50:49,639
is not a rookie, but this is a rookie quarterback

1031
00:50:49,840 --> 00:50:52,719
on the road laying points in Week one. McCarthy's a

1032
00:50:52,800 --> 00:50:54,559
rookie quarterback in my world. It's not gonna show that

1033
00:50:54,639 --> 00:50:57,599
way in databases, but obviously it's a QB. He's never

1034
00:50:57,639 --> 00:51:01,119
had an NFL start before. We played a couple series

1035
00:51:01,159 --> 00:51:04,119
in the preseason opener against Houston in Week one of

1036
00:51:04,199 --> 00:51:06,519
the preseum, that was it. Caleb Williams played twice and

1037
00:51:06,599 --> 00:51:08,360
the offense looked pretty good with him, certainly the second

1038
00:51:08,400 --> 00:51:12,199
time with him on the field. Ben Johnson coming in

1039
00:51:12,280 --> 00:51:17,199
with enormous expectations in Chicago, and again, if you're laying

1040
00:51:17,239 --> 00:51:19,400
with Minnesota and telling everyone that Minnesota is way better

1041
00:51:19,480 --> 00:51:23,119
than the Bears, maybe they are not a quarterback not

1042
00:51:23,199 --> 00:51:25,039
week one, that may be concerned.

1043
00:51:25,960 --> 00:51:27,960
Speaker 3: All right, guys, we have a few minutes left before

1044
00:51:27,960 --> 00:51:29,519
we got to get out of here, so that wager

1045
00:51:29,639 --> 00:51:34,679
talk today can get started. Teddy covers anything you'd like

1046
00:51:34,760 --> 00:51:36,679
to leave us with before we get out of here.

1047
00:51:38,760 --> 00:51:43,159
Speaker 1: It's Week one. Don't lose your bankroll, you know, that's

1048
00:51:43,400 --> 00:51:47,360
the nother the most important thing for recreational betters to

1049
00:51:47,480 --> 00:51:56,119
consider is bankroll preservation, all right, you want to be

1050
00:51:56,199 --> 00:51:58,079
in action. So if that means you have one hundred

1051
00:51:58,079 --> 00:52:01,239
dollars to bet, bet less, I bet ten dollars a game.

1052
00:52:02,639 --> 00:52:05,119
Give yourself something to play for next.

1053
00:52:05,280 --> 00:52:07,880
Speaker 3: Because we can it for reference, ADI, how many games

1054
00:52:07,920 --> 00:52:09,920
do you have premium plays.

1055
00:52:09,719 --> 00:52:10,800
Speaker 2: Up for this weekend? A wager two?

1056
00:52:10,880 --> 00:52:12,480
Speaker 1: Right now? I have three. I expect to have at

1057
00:52:12,599 --> 00:52:14,760
least one more, and I may have two more. So

1058
00:52:15,400 --> 00:52:17,159
it's not but that's I mean, that's my standard volume.

1059
00:52:17,159 --> 00:52:19,159
I'll go in an NFL usually between three and five

1060
00:52:19,199 --> 00:52:22,159
plays a week, and that's pretty consistent. There are weeks

1061
00:52:22,159 --> 00:52:23,840
that I just can't find three. There are weeks that

1062
00:52:23,920 --> 00:52:27,280
I like six, you know, uh, But in general, three,

1063
00:52:27,440 --> 00:52:29,519
four or five plays is what a week is. What

1064
00:52:29,599 --> 00:52:32,440
you're gonna I'm gonna release for the clients. That's what

1065
00:52:32,480 --> 00:52:34,119
I'm gonna bet myself. I give you guys what I

1066
00:52:34,199 --> 00:52:36,360
bet that's still available. If I bet something that's not

1067
00:52:36,400 --> 00:52:38,480
available anymore than you guys don't get it. But otherwise,

1068
00:52:39,599 --> 00:52:41,599
all right, I hope that the line moves and you

1069
00:52:41,639 --> 00:52:43,880
can get it again or something. But in general, you'll

1070
00:52:43,880 --> 00:52:48,960
get just about everything that I play personally. But week

1071
00:52:49,079 --> 00:52:52,039
one people tend to go nuts, and Week one is

1072
00:52:52,079 --> 00:52:53,880
the week where we literally have the least information we're

1073
00:52:53,880 --> 00:52:56,320
gonna have all year about these teams. You know, we've

1074
00:52:56,400 --> 00:52:58,280
we've seen a little bit of preseason, and we've read

1075
00:52:58,320 --> 00:53:00,159
a whole lot, but we have them seen them on

1076
00:53:00,199 --> 00:53:03,320
the field than anything resembling a meaningful game against anything

1077
00:53:03,360 --> 00:53:06,920
resembling a defense that's coming to play. So there's a

1078
00:53:07,039 --> 00:53:10,360
learning curve here week one. I know I have a

1079
00:53:10,519 --> 00:53:13,280
really good track record in Week one thirty and eleven

1080
00:53:13,320 --> 00:53:16,559
the last ten years, but that's because I'm not peppering

1081
00:53:16,639 --> 00:53:19,039
the board and I'm really trying to pay attention to

1082
00:53:19,119 --> 00:53:23,000
what teams actually are better and what teams aren't. But

1083
00:53:23,679 --> 00:53:25,719
I would say, if I'm going to give one piece

1084
00:53:25,719 --> 00:53:29,480
of advice for Week one is keep your unit sizes reasonable.

1085
00:53:30,159 --> 00:53:31,199
Don't blow your bankroll.

1086
00:53:32,320 --> 00:53:36,400
Speaker 3: Number one great advice from the man himself, Teddy Covers. Guys,

1087
00:53:36,400 --> 00:53:39,760
if you missed the divisional previews that we did last

1088
00:53:39,800 --> 00:53:41,679
we can go to the Wager Talking YouTube channel check

1089
00:53:41,719 --> 00:53:43,320
those out. Still plenty of time to watch those if

1090
00:53:43,320 --> 00:53:46,719
you guys are looking for more extensive breakdowns in terms

1091
00:53:46,760 --> 00:53:48,760
of regular season wins, so you can make some of

1092
00:53:48,800 --> 00:53:51,039
those futures bets. Those are up on the wager Talk

1093
00:53:51,039 --> 00:53:54,320
YouTube channel as now as well. Just type in opening

1094
00:53:54,360 --> 00:53:56,920
Line Report in your search bar, go back and check

1095
00:53:57,280 --> 00:54:01,280
all of those out, Teddy. One last piece of advice

1096
00:54:01,440 --> 00:54:04,840
in terms of what your season win report contains. I

1097
00:54:04,920 --> 00:54:06,480
know there's part one as well as part two.

1098
00:54:07,159 --> 00:54:10,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, and look, I've got it's got I think sixth

1099
00:54:10,039 --> 00:54:12,760
plays total now in the season win report. And the

1100
00:54:12,800 --> 00:54:15,039
beauty of that season win report is that you get

1101
00:54:15,159 --> 00:54:17,599
the info to go along with the plays, because it's

1102
00:54:17,679 --> 00:54:21,719
info you can use all year long. I don't expect

1103
00:54:21,760 --> 00:54:24,679
I'm gonna go six and zero. So when I'm wrong

1104
00:54:24,760 --> 00:54:27,119
about one of these teams, I like to make money

1105
00:54:27,159 --> 00:54:29,239
betting against it, you know, betting on me being wrong.

1106
00:54:29,519 --> 00:54:30,880
And I you know, the teams are going to pay

1107
00:54:30,880 --> 00:54:33,679
attention to all year. We're gonna see stuff early and

1108
00:54:34,079 --> 00:54:36,159
if I if I was wrong about one of them,

1109
00:54:36,519 --> 00:54:39,599
we'll come back the other way and make money with

1110
00:54:39,639 --> 00:54:42,400
them on a game by game basis. So obviously it's

1111
00:54:42,440 --> 00:54:44,239
something I put a lot of time into over the summer.

1112
00:54:44,800 --> 00:54:45,440
Speaker 2: You can go back and.

1113
00:54:45,519 --> 00:54:49,320
Speaker 1: Look at you know, we did divisional breakdowns. You know

1114
00:54:50,039 --> 00:54:52,519
we've got team by team breakdowns. We've done it multiple

1115
00:54:52,559 --> 00:54:53,960
times over the summer. We did it early and we

1116
00:54:54,000 --> 00:54:57,960
did it again late last week. So there's lots of

1117
00:54:58,000 --> 00:55:00,679
great content on the wager Talk YouTube we haven't done,

1118
00:55:00,719 --> 00:55:03,840
so subscribe. What do we have two hundred and ten

1119
00:55:03,880 --> 00:55:07,360
plus thousand of years. Of course, I only ask one thing.

1120
00:55:07,519 --> 00:55:09,599
If you like the video, hit the like button. That's

1121
00:55:09,639 --> 00:55:12,159
all we ask. Thank you, comment below because I'll tell

1122
00:55:12,159 --> 00:55:14,360
you what. Kelly's going to be in the comments this week.

1123
00:55:14,920 --> 00:55:16,679
I'm going to be in the comments this week. We'll

1124
00:55:16,760 --> 00:55:20,280
respond to every single comment you put out there. So

1125
00:55:20,679 --> 00:55:23,519
we appreciate the comments very much. But the one thing

1126
00:55:23,559 --> 00:55:25,440
I the only asked thing I asked from you is

1127
00:55:25,840 --> 00:55:28,119
the like button makes all the difference. Cheers.

1128
00:55:28,480 --> 00:55:30,039
Speaker 2: That's all all right, Teddy.

1129
00:55:30,159 --> 00:55:32,639
Speaker 3: We'll see you next Monday morning and every single Monday

1130
00:55:32,679 --> 00:55:34,519
morning until the Monday.

1131
00:55:34,320 --> 00:55:37,079
Speaker 2: After the super Bowl. Guys, this has been the opening

1132
00:55:37,199 --> 00:55:37,719
line report.

1133
00:55:38,239 --> 00:55:41,840
Speaker 3: Like Teddy said, give us that like, hit that subscribe

1134
00:55:41,880 --> 00:55:44,360
button so you never miss another episode.

1135
00:55:44,840 --> 00:55:47,000
Speaker 2: Cheers to everybody for week one, and we'll see you

1136
00:55:47,079 --> 00:55:47,519
next week.