1 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:39,280 Speaker 1: If you want to support the show and get the 2 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:43,759 episodes early and ad free, head on over to Freemanbeyond 3 00:00:43,759 --> 00:00:47,520 the Wall dot com forward slash Support. I want to 4 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:52,159 explain something right now. If you support me through substack 5 00:00:52,799 --> 00:00:56,880 or Patreon, you have access to an RSS feed that 6 00:00:56,920 --> 00:01:01,399 you can plug into any podcatcher include Apple, and you'll 7 00:01:01,399 --> 00:01:04,400 be able to listen to the episodes through there. If 8 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:08,280 you support me through subscribe, star gum Road or on 9 00:01:08,319 --> 00:01:11,879 my website directly, I will send you a link where 10 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:14,239 you can download the file and you can listen to 11 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:18,599 it any way you wish. I really appreciate the support 12 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:21,920 everyone gives me. It keeps a show going. It allows 13 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:25,120 me to basically put out an episode every day now, 14 00:01:25,599 --> 00:01:28,280 and I'm not going to stop. I'm just going to accelerate. 15 00:01:28,799 --> 00:01:30,959 I think sometimes you see that I'm putting out two 16 00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:37,239 even three a day, and yeah, can't do it without you, 17 00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:40,040 So thank you for the support. Head on over to 18 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:44,319 Freeman Beyond the Wall dot com, forward slash Support and 19 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:44,959 do it there. 20 00:01:46,079 --> 00:01:46,480 Speaker 2: Thank you. 21 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 1: I want to welcome everyone back to the Pegaona Show. 22 00:01:50,959 --> 00:01:56,519 Thomas is back and take a little one episode breakaway 23 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:58,120 from the California series. 24 00:01:58,439 --> 00:02:03,799 Speaker 2: How are you doing, Thomas, I'm well, forgive the if 25 00:02:03,799 --> 00:02:06,640 the copy of the recording comes out screwed up, forgive 26 00:02:06,799 --> 00:02:09,879 me for that. I'm still dealing with some hardware issues 27 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:12,599 until I can upgrade my machine. It's fine. 28 00:02:12,759 --> 00:02:15,199 Speaker 1: I mean, as long as we get the audio recorded, right, 29 00:02:15,240 --> 00:02:16,080 who cares? 30 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:17,800 Speaker 2: So? Okay? 31 00:02:18,719 --> 00:02:23,439 Speaker 1: Well, I wanted to do an episode because when we 32 00:02:23,439 --> 00:02:27,080 were recording on Saturday night, the news was just breaking 33 00:02:27,159 --> 00:02:30,439 about what was going on in Syria. And now that 34 00:02:30,479 --> 00:02:32,960 we have a couple of days to see exactly what 35 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:35,159 is playing out, I wanted to have you, have you 36 00:02:35,199 --> 00:02:38,759 on to talk about your thoughts and you know, see 37 00:02:38,759 --> 00:02:42,000 where you see what you think is happening, or you know, 38 00:02:42,039 --> 00:02:44,159 to give your opinion anything you want to talk about. 39 00:02:44,199 --> 00:02:48,439 Speaker 2: So got right out and that thought is pretty clear, 40 00:02:49,439 --> 00:02:53,919 and it disturbs me, is isn't it. People take what 41 00:02:55,560 --> 00:03:00,159 emerges from official dome just at face value. Yeah, these 42 00:03:00,159 --> 00:03:05,599 people claim that they're critical about, you know what official 43 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:09,240 them alleges. They claim they don't like legacy media, and 44 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:11,719 then and then they pair it uncritically everything it says, 45 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:16,199 you know, whether it's Kamala Harris is sweeping the country 46 00:03:16,319 --> 00:03:22,400 or there was some sort of democracy Soros uprising in Syria, 47 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:26,599 like I mean, it's ridiculous. I mean, I don't you know, 48 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:28,759 and I find I find the whole thing really upsetting. 49 00:03:28,759 --> 00:03:30,520 I mean, not for the reasons people might think, but 50 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:38,199 you know, such that myself and the people I associate 51 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:40,719 with have real allies on the ground there. I mean, 52 00:03:40,759 --> 00:03:45,039 a bunch of these people got killed, you know, and 53 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:50,240 that's awful, but it should be pretty clear what Russia, 54 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:54,840 Turkey and Iran we're doing. I mean, going back really years, 55 00:03:54,879 --> 00:04:01,039 but this reached kind of a critical decision point in 56 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:05,840 October and November. And I don't want to rehash the 57 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:08,719 entire conflict cycle because we'd be here all night. And 58 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:11,599 I'm just going to assume that people have knowledge of 59 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:19,120 the basic progress of hostilities from twenty eleven onward. But 60 00:04:19,319 --> 00:04:25,720 basically the kind of roadmap that developed in twenty sixteen, 61 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:32,800 like September twenty sixteen was the first ceasefire, Okay, Russia 62 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:38,879 and the US broke her the ceasefire you know, between 63 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:43,920 the government of the Syrian Arab Republic, which was the 64 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:49,920 you know, the Bath regime, and this kind of constellation 65 00:04:50,079 --> 00:04:57,680 of American and Israeli in Turkish proxies that the media called, 66 00:04:57,759 --> 00:05:02,839 you know, the mainstream at Syrian opposite rebel group, which 67 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:05,560 was a complete mischaracterization. These guys were a bunch of 68 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:09,839 like Salafi lunatics and like Isis types. Plus it's like 69 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:15,079 make believe uh umbrella organization of Curds. I mean, curd 70 00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:18,600 is a fake ethnicity. It's ridiculous. It's it's like the 71 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:22,279 Kurdish people and this kind of they're kind of this 72 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:29,959 fantasy uh anthony devised by State Department careers and Sorrows types. 73 00:05:30,079 --> 00:05:35,120 There are no Kurdish people, like if you accept that 74 00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:39,279 there's a Kurdish ethnicity, like literally like there's Jewish Kurds, 75 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:42,279 there's Sunny Kurds, there's Shia Kurds, there's Alo white Kurds, 76 00:05:43,079 --> 00:05:46,439 there's a there's curves of about like eighteen different ethnic groups. 77 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:51,600 Like it. It's it's retarded, you know, and interestingly, like 78 00:05:51,639 --> 00:05:56,000 the Turks refuse to negotiate unless it's kind of confabulated, 79 00:05:56,079 --> 00:06:00,839 like Turkish representation like was excluded. Tells you a lot. 80 00:06:00,959 --> 00:06:12,160 But basically the ceasefire was implemented, like the intensity of 81 00:06:12,199 --> 00:06:19,040 hostilities abated. The one kind of bumping the road at 82 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:25,360 that time was there were American airstrikes that hit Syrian positions, 83 00:06:25,399 --> 00:06:27,519 the Syrian Air of Army, I mean, on the seventeenth 84 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:31,600 of September, and the claim from Washington was that this 85 00:06:31,759 --> 00:06:35,639 was some kind of accident, but that did derail things 86 00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:41,120 for about a month. But subsequently, and this is important, 87 00:06:41,480 --> 00:06:47,079 October twenty sixteen, the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the UAE, 88 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:53,720 and Iran they convened in Lasan, Switzerland to basically start 89 00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:56,199 hashing out like what became kind of like the road 90 00:06:56,240 --> 00:07:02,680 map to ending hostilities and what this was this series 91 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:06,360 of talks and negotiations in Kazakhstan, you know, called the 92 00:07:06,439 --> 00:07:13,519 Astana talks, Okay, Euphemistically in diplomatic language you refer to 93 00:07:13,519 --> 00:07:17,279 a summit as talks because it's non committal. This goes 94 00:07:17,319 --> 00:07:20,720 back to the Cold War. But this is basically when 95 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:25,759 this was basically when the current enterprise, like what Syria 96 00:07:25,839 --> 00:07:30,199 is going to be moving forward, was devised. Okay, end 97 00:07:30,199 --> 00:07:39,040 of twenty sixteen, just before Christmas putin Aragon, they they 98 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:43,920 agreed to meet in Astana, Kazakhstan. Because Kazakhstan is purportedly neutral, 99 00:07:43,959 --> 00:07:47,199 it's not really neutral, but they don't they don't maintain 100 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:51,720 a real military force. You know, they they don't really 101 00:07:51,800 --> 00:07:56,680 participate in parapolitical intrigues any kind of direct way. But 102 00:07:59,399 --> 00:08:04,920 this was what and Ernugon Pudin and the Foreign Minister 103 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:10,439 of Iran, I can't remember his name, they invoked Security 104 00:08:10,439 --> 00:08:17,399 Council Resolution twenty two fifty four. Okay, as like the 105 00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:20,639 Roadmap the peace, which basically called for like a gradual 106 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:27,879 transition out let me see if I any event. It 107 00:08:27,959 --> 00:08:36,799 basically laid out progress towards multi party elections, a gradual 108 00:08:36,840 --> 00:08:42,879 weakening of the executive and you know, an exclusion of 109 00:08:42,919 --> 00:08:46,159 a constitutional mandate, that is law maic jurisprudence would be 110 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:47,360 the only source. 111 00:08:47,039 --> 00:08:55,120 Speaker 3: Of of of law and authority contemplated, you know by 112 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:58,159 the legislature in devising law. 113 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:03,840 Speaker 2: Something that was essential to it was that Syria wouldn't 114 00:09:03,879 --> 00:09:08,039 be Balkanized, okay, like it wouldn't be divided into separate states. 115 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:11,039 The understanding was if that was allowed to happen, you 116 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:16,240 basically have these kinds of like discrete militarized zones of interest, 117 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:21,360 you know, between Turkey, the Russian Federation, his Blah Iran 118 00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:24,399 and Israel, the United States. And that's exactly what's happening now, 119 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:28,879 But we're not there yet. But these Astana talks like 120 00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:36,399 who represented the opposition? This is important to the rebel. 121 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:42,600 Groups that were excluded were Isis, elmuse Refront, almus Refronts, 122 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:49,279 basically al Qaeda reconstituted. It's complicated because ISIS is also 123 00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:51,960 kind of al Qaeda. They're kind of there's Arkawi faction 124 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:55,320 of al Qaeda, but they were excluded. So is this 125 00:09:55,399 --> 00:09:58,399 kind of like make believe her Kurdish militia command that 126 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:02,480 you know America and sists. It's like this real thing. 127 00:10:03,519 --> 00:10:06,919 But those who were given the green light to negotiate 128 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:11,399 formally abaft of the opposition with the Sham legion. These 129 00:10:11,399 --> 00:10:19,320 are basically with Salafi radicals, the uh Aharar al Sham. 130 00:10:20,519 --> 00:10:24,159 These guys were Salafis led by Hassan of Bud and 131 00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:28,600 they were after the Syrian Air of Army during the 132 00:10:28,639 --> 00:10:31,120 major conlet Segle. They were probably the most powerful element 133 00:10:31,159 --> 00:10:33,320 on the ground. They had tens of thousands of men 134 00:10:33,399 --> 00:10:37,240 under arms, like very hardened fighters and very very committed. 135 00:10:40,519 --> 00:10:45,720 The uh There's a group called Jash al Islam literally 136 00:10:45,759 --> 00:10:49,080 the Army of Islam. These guys were based in the 137 00:10:49,159 --> 00:10:52,960 damask A, Syria of operations. They were. They were Salafi 138 00:10:53,039 --> 00:10:57,159 usually broken with the Free Syrian Army in twenty thirteen. 139 00:10:57,919 --> 00:11:03,919 And the FSA is kind of one part artificial. It's 140 00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:06,200 one part like like like a fake militia of like 141 00:11:06,279 --> 00:11:12,840 mercenaries and terrorists, like it's one part an indigenous kind 142 00:11:12,879 --> 00:11:19,279 of element of a Salafes. But they broke, I believe, 143 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:25,960 because they integral to their mission and not be on 144 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:28,519 the same side of America and Israel, like even if 145 00:11:28,519 --> 00:11:33,600 it's only for the sake of you know, material like 146 00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:36,960 war materials and logistical assistance and things. But they found 147 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:39,720 it what's called the Syrian Islamic Front, which I believe 148 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:42,279 is still active. Some of this is probably out of date, 149 00:11:42,399 --> 00:11:45,320 but I don't have eyes on the ground there and 150 00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:49,600 now there's nobody giving me or my friend's humans. And 151 00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:52,879 I hope they're not dead, but they may be. But 152 00:11:56,120 --> 00:12:01,840 another faction was this US proxy element they called and 153 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:05,039 I believe so called itself the Free Italy of Army. 154 00:12:05,759 --> 00:12:08,960 These guys are US proxies. They claim to be pain 155 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:13,279 Syrian nationalists and secularists. I don't think that's true, but 156 00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:16,480 they're basically trying to siphon off or they were they 157 00:12:16,519 --> 00:12:19,399 were basically constantly with deciphon off like a sad loyalists 158 00:12:19,399 --> 00:12:26,559 who you know generally were either basically like genuine moderates 159 00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:31,200 or you know, members of religious minority groups who you 160 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:34,639 know naturally had a steak and the enduring survival of 161 00:12:34,639 --> 00:12:40,600 the Baptist regime. But these guys the Italy the government 162 00:12:41,759 --> 00:12:47,200 or the Igoid government that it borders, it borders Turkey, 163 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:54,919 it borders uh the hall A province of Turkey to 164 00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:59,320 the east, as Aleppo to the south, as Tama and 165 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:04,039 Uh to the west. But this is essential because like 166 00:13:04,080 --> 00:13:09,360 the Italy the government, ultimately when the Russians started pounding 167 00:13:09,399 --> 00:13:13,000 the hell out of Isis, as the ceasefire came about, 168 00:13:13,039 --> 00:13:16,080 they basically let these IIS fighters retreat to Italy have 169 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:22,600 been like survived, okay or I dialed like whatever, forgive 170 00:13:22,639 --> 00:13:27,679 the Yeah that's Italy. Yeah, yeah, greeam me. I'm tired 171 00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:30,960 of not feeling good. But these guys in iaid government 172 00:13:31,799 --> 00:13:35,440 supposedly and uh, Scott River is claiming this, and Scott 173 00:13:35,519 --> 00:13:38,720 River is a crank, but and I don't accept anything 174 00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:42,679 he says in terms of his his kind of strategic forecasting, 175 00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:47,360 because that doesn't make any sense. But when he talks 176 00:13:47,399 --> 00:13:50,000 about the forces and being of a lot of these elements, 177 00:13:50,039 --> 00:13:52,840 because he's a military hound a lot of the time, 178 00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:56,919 that's that's true, he claims, and so do these Stratford 179 00:13:56,960 --> 00:14:00,200 types that Turkey was like set of twenty sixteen, that 180 00:14:00,279 --> 00:14:04,399 Turkey was basically funneling their own fighters into the Idlib 181 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:07,759 and claiming that they were refugee elements or that they 182 00:14:07,759 --> 00:14:13,320 were displaced persons, some of these wigers who got who 183 00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:16,720 were allowed to emigrate the Turkey, you know, under auspices 184 00:14:16,759 --> 00:14:19,559 of them being a persecuted population and the PRC, which 185 00:14:19,559 --> 00:14:22,200 they probably are. There's a claim that a bunch of 186 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:27,399 these guys were said to Idlib, which then became this 187 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:31,519 kind of mini Islamic state, you know, on the Turkish 188 00:14:31,559 --> 00:14:36,960 frontier that also acted as this kind of like militia 189 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:41,240 in theater that they were prepping to cut loose in 190 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:46,200 the opportune moment arrived. And at the time I was 191 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:49,480 a bit skeptical of that take, but I think facts 192 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:52,480 have kind of demonstrated that it's at least partially true. 193 00:14:53,879 --> 00:14:58,200 And the Rea the remaining elements to the twenty sixteen, 194 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:04,039 the Astana Talks or these guys called themselves the Levant Frauds. 195 00:15:04,039 --> 00:15:06,240 They were another Turkish proxy. They were like a broad 196 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:13,080 spectrum Sunni militia. And these guys call themselves the Mushaden Army. 197 00:15:13,279 --> 00:15:17,039 These guys have murky origins and the ops of ISIS. 198 00:15:18,679 --> 00:15:20,759 But other than that, not much is known about them. 199 00:15:20,759 --> 00:15:27,960 They're definitely like the proxies of somebody, but it's not known. Okay. 200 00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:30,799 So the first round of the Astana talks officially started 201 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:37,480 in twenty seventeen. The Astana process, as it was called, 202 00:15:38,799 --> 00:15:44,879 it was in super visual terms. Again, it was dedicated 203 00:15:44,919 --> 00:15:49,039 to supporting the framework laid out by Security Council Resolution 204 00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:56,679 twenty two fifty four. What came out of it was 205 00:15:57,240 --> 00:16:00,559 an agreement between Russia and Turkey to joint form a 206 00:16:00,679 --> 00:16:05,000 joint monitoring body to enforce the cease fire and oversee 207 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:09,080 the implementation of the resolution. And this is important because 208 00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:12,159 even though a lot of this fell apart, Turkey and 209 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:18,159 Russia sustained that strategic cooperation despite some maintenance in theater 210 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:22,240 where they were down arranged in one another or their 211 00:16:22,279 --> 00:16:29,240 proxies were The Turks are really really duplicatous. Turkey's basically 212 00:16:29,279 --> 00:16:35,600 allied with Israel in theater, but they've also got to 213 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:39,840 play nice with the Russians to some degree, owing the 214 00:16:39,879 --> 00:16:42,799 reasons of energy independence and other things. And plus the 215 00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:47,679 Turks always hedge to their bets. So this is complicated, 216 00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:50,240 and a lot of people mits read what's being telegraphed. 217 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:55,559 But from twenty seventeen onward, Ergov and Putin were basically 218 00:16:55,559 --> 00:16:58,200 on the same page. What the fate of Syria was 219 00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:04,519 going to be a massive betrayal of Asad. The Syrian 220 00:17:04,519 --> 00:17:10,039 allites and the men who under arms were obeying the 221 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:13,319 orders of Russian commanders a company level and higher. I 222 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:16,279 find this to be totally disgusting. If people, if you 223 00:17:16,319 --> 00:17:18,359 want to tell me that I'm slandering the Russians, I 224 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:21,119 don't care. I mean, this is I'm not blind about this. 225 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:29,039 But you know, so the Russians from that point on 226 00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:33,000 were from basically twenty seventeen have been saying, look, we're 227 00:17:33,039 --> 00:17:35,759 gonna We're gonna preside over some sort of change in government. 228 00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:39,960 But it has to exclude terrorists. It's got to exclude 229 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:44,640 elements that are nothing more than American clients who are 230 00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:48,880 masquerading as some sort of legitimate representation of some sort 231 00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:58,640 of Syrian people and that Syria had to remain like 232 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:02,839 an integral republic. The Russians don't actually mean that the 233 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:05,079 Russians want Syria to be carved up, which is what 234 00:18:05,119 --> 00:18:07,119 they're doing to it now with the Turks and with 235 00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:12,000 the Iranians and with Israel. But their alibi is that, Hey, 236 00:18:11,799 --> 00:18:15,680 we wanted we wanted an integral Syria and America and 237 00:18:16,559 --> 00:18:19,359 Israel and Turkey wouldn't let that happen. So we're just 238 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:23,440 trying to salvage what remains of, you know, the rules 239 00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:27,759 based in the National Order as it has devised a 240 00:18:27,799 --> 00:18:31,359 solution to the Syrian crisis, which was Resolution twenty two 241 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:34,880 fifty four. That's complete cap They're not doing that, but 242 00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:40,000 that's that was the platform, if you will, in the 243 00:18:40,039 --> 00:18:45,960 alibi for everything they were doing. From twenty seventeen onward. 244 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:55,480 Spring of twenty seventeen, the United Nations brokeer further talks 245 00:18:55,559 --> 00:19:00,920 between a. Sad and his people and the normal opposition, 246 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:07,039 which was constituted by those elements that I just outlined 247 00:19:07,079 --> 00:19:12,720 and described a minute ago. The opposition, they were represented 248 00:19:12,799 --> 00:19:21,799 by what became called the High Negotiations Committee. ASAD is 249 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:28,559 represented and this is very significant by Bashar Jaafari. Jaafar 250 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:32,559 is the permanent representative at the UN in New York City. 251 00:19:32,599 --> 00:19:36,640 He's also the ambassador to Russia and all accounts he 252 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:39,359 is still in that role. If I'm mistaken, somebody will 253 00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:49,279 correct me when you upload this. Basically, the Syrian government 254 00:19:51,079 --> 00:19:58,079 at these Geneva talks, they said they'd abide the implementation 255 00:19:58,519 --> 00:20:03,599 of Resolution twenty two fifty four as long as there 256 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:07,640 was a commitment to the United States to accept basically 257 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:12,640 like the Syrian Arab Republic government, you know, the Assad regime, 258 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:16,240 as long as they be acknowledged that they were engaged 259 00:20:16,319 --> 00:20:19,960 in a war against terrorism and any kind of political 260 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:24,680 transition had to focus on, you know, counter terrorism and 261 00:20:24,799 --> 00:20:29,599 the objectives incident to this soundgoing campaign against terrorism in 262 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:36,640 Syria being realized. Okay, And this bought the Assad regime 263 00:20:36,759 --> 00:20:39,960 some time, and that was honest. The Syrians were on 264 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:43,920 the front lines of what was called the war on terror, 265 00:20:44,559 --> 00:20:51,640 I mean, more than anybody else, except arguably people in 266 00:20:51,680 --> 00:21:05,400 Iraq who were down range of Salafi extremists. But the February, 267 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:13,440 as the Astana talks reconvened in twenty seventeen, there's a 268 00:21:13,519 --> 00:21:20,720 document produced that formalized monitoring of the ceasefire, that set 269 00:21:20,799 --> 00:21:26,599 up a joint operations group between like formed by Russia, 270 00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:32,960 Turkey and Iran. And it included confidence building measures as 271 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:38,400 to you know, representatives of the formal opposition as well 272 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:41,039 as the Assad government who would be able to participate 273 00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:48,119 in some sort of direct role beyond merely observational. What 274 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:55,519 this led to, This led to an agreement for demarketing 275 00:21:56,160 --> 00:22:01,000 what was called the escalation zones. And this is key, okay, 276 00:22:02,599 --> 00:22:10,960 spring of twenty seventeen, in May, this is the fourth 277 00:22:11,039 --> 00:22:17,680 round of the talks, and the stunned Kazakhstan, Russia I 278 00:22:17,759 --> 00:22:20,920 ran in Turkey. They signed this memorandum. This was all 279 00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:27,599 very above board, establishing four de escalation zones, the largest 280 00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:33,359 uh The largest zone was basically the what became the 281 00:22:33,559 --> 00:22:45,400 lib government and it included Hama, Aleppo and Latakia, but 282 00:22:45,559 --> 00:22:48,680 the alb government again and this was basically like the 283 00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:53,000 Turkish occupation zone and all the name okay. The other 284 00:22:53,079 --> 00:23:01,039 three zones with a Hams government uh An opposite and 285 00:23:01,079 --> 00:23:06,240 controlled Stronghold and Guta, and one along the Jordan's Siria border, 286 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:13,160 which is essentially a demilitarized zone. Okay, so this was 287 00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:16,119 when the fix was in. I don't think I don't 288 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:19,039 think the Russians were planning to whack Aside at this point, 289 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:23,319 but I think that's pretty much when the sea was planted. Okay, 290 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:28,960 and uh, I think the Department of State is so ignorant, 291 00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:31,559 like it was over in a State, they this like 292 00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:35,200 just went over their head. They they weren't paying attention 293 00:23:35,279 --> 00:23:37,519 to it. If you read the dispatches from the time, 294 00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:42,839 they didn't understand the implications of it. They seemed totally 295 00:23:43,559 --> 00:23:48,200 illiterate on the way the Erdogan regime does a business 296 00:23:48,279 --> 00:23:52,160 and what their strategic interests are and their kind of 297 00:23:52,279 --> 00:23:58,359 duplicateousness born of you know, strategic necessity. If you look 298 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:00,799 at what the Turks want to pomplished, I mean, they 299 00:24:00,839 --> 00:24:04,079 should be fairly obvious, you know, even accounting for the 300 00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:11,279 kind of double speak that's you know, intrinsic, not just 301 00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:15,359 the conflicts like the one that was underwing in Syria, 302 00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:20,640 but also the the kind of Russian and the Turkish 303 00:24:21,039 --> 00:24:27,960 diplomatic cultures. But you know, the there was also like 304 00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:31,920 you know, this this idea of a no fly zone 305 00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:36,160 being established, a suspension of all like a suspension of 306 00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:43,920 all like military flights, not just warplanes, you know. And 307 00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:46,960 this obviously was a way to essentially like cut like 308 00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:48,920 the United States and Israel out of it as much 309 00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:52,640 as possible. And I mean obviously that wasn't honored about it. 310 00:24:53,599 --> 00:24:56,160 This was basically the Iranians, the Russians, and the Church 311 00:24:56,240 --> 00:25:00,599 trying to corral like world opinion while they had you know, 312 00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:06,079 well well they well they had the UN's endorsement and 313 00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:11,119 in official terms, you know, to kind of try and 314 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:15,480 provide credibility to the whole thing. The Syrian government at 315 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:18,640 the last minute refused to sign off from the memorandum 316 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:23,519 because they figured out what was underway, you know, and 317 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,720 a lot of the rebel groups also, they were they refused, 318 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:34,799 enough of them refused to sign that the uh, the 319 00:25:34,839 --> 00:25:39,880 formal opposition, like their representation collectively refused to sign because 320 00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:43,680 like they realized too that like this was this was 321 00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:45,400 gonna be the end of them, because they like they 322 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:48,440 only really existed because of American and is real American 323 00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:55,960 and Israeli patronage. They claimed, oh, this leaves too many 324 00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:58,759 loopholes for us to be attacked under Osmin's a counter 325 00:25:58,839 --> 00:26:02,119 terrorism But it's like but you've got are terrorists. You know, 326 00:26:02,319 --> 00:26:08,160 it's not it's not a loophole. But this was further 327 00:26:08,279 --> 00:26:12,559 kind of buttressed like this model and this kind of 328 00:26:12,599 --> 00:26:19,240 privileging of the Russian and Turkish and Iranian because you know, 329 00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:22,799 much as the UN might ordinarily want to exclude the Iranians, like, 330 00:26:22,839 --> 00:26:27,480 it wasn't possible in this case. You know, it was 331 00:26:27,519 --> 00:26:30,079 they either they had to accept the they had, they 332 00:26:30,079 --> 00:26:32,839 had to accept Russian and Turkish overtures like with Iran 333 00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:40,759 or not at all. But uh, Stefan de Mistura, he's 334 00:26:40,799 --> 00:26:47,119 that un hancho who was a he's an Italian Swede 335 00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:50,599 and he was he was something he's certain in the 336 00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:54,920 Italian government in some capacity. But he went on a 337 00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:59,799 record saying that, you know, the Astana talks are like 338 00:26:59,839 --> 00:27:03,559 a real roadmap to peace and we basically need to 339 00:27:03,559 --> 00:27:07,319 like see this through. A bunch of the American proxies 340 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:13,279 within the Free Seroni pronumber like started boycotting the talks outright. 341 00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:22,480 But this, uh, but it basically continued in arnest from 342 00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:30,000 that point forward. Okay, fast forward a bit, because they 343 00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:35,359 don't want to boor ebody to death. Things really changed 344 00:27:35,559 --> 00:27:43,000 and became set in Stone twenty eighteen, the new Year's 345 00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:49,720 the Russians canvene the quote Syrian Dialogue, Syrian National Dialogue 346 00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:55,240 Congress in Sochi, and uh, you know again, it was 347 00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:59,519 clear that's kind of quorum. Like Turkey, Iran, Russia was 348 00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:05,920 more robust than people who were hoping for a different 349 00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:12,599 outcome would would would hope for and pining for. September 350 00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:19,799 that year, there was the Italy Memorandum. Basically Putin signed 351 00:28:19,839 --> 00:28:23,599 off with Aragon on a quote buffer zone in Italy. 352 00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:27,680 He basically signed over Italy the Turkish influence. Okay, this 353 00:28:27,799 --> 00:28:37,279 is like your zone of influence, you know. Subsequent twenty 354 00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:42,920 nineteen August twenty nineteen, the United States and Turkey came 355 00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:46,000 to the table. They agreed to a quote buffer zone 356 00:28:46,039 --> 00:28:49,960 in northern Turkey, which they claimed mcclaimed, Well, this will 357 00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:55,799 preempt a Turkish invasion of SDF held territory STFs. Another 358 00:28:55,799 --> 00:28:57,920 one of these like fake US proxies. They're like this 359 00:28:58,039 --> 00:29:02,000 left wing cult that there's like Ado Marxist who they've 360 00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:06,640 literally got like a feminist constitution, like it's ridiculous, but 361 00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:12,599 this is the demilitarized zone between Turkey and Syria America 362 00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:15,519 pretends that it's some sort of like woke utopia, when 363 00:29:15,519 --> 00:29:19,599 in reality it's the de militarized zone and the fact 364 00:29:19,599 --> 00:29:23,759 that Turkey got called got carved up while the State 365 00:29:23,799 --> 00:29:26,640 Department has thumb up his ass, like just looking stupid. 366 00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:28,799 This was like their way pretending that like they had 367 00:29:28,839 --> 00:29:32,240 something to do with what was being hashed out. And 368 00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:41,079 you know, basically this was the holding pattern from twenty 369 00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:45,680 nineteen to the president. There was prisoner exchanges. You know, 370 00:29:45,759 --> 00:29:53,480 POW's the Syrian Constitutional Committee, which was charged with drafting 371 00:29:55,440 --> 00:30:00,519 a model for like a new multi party government, was 372 00:30:00,559 --> 00:30:04,960 convened at the United Nations Office at Geneva in twenty nineteen. 373 00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:12,839 You know, opposition meeter, opposition leaders met with elements of 374 00:30:12,839 --> 00:30:16,720 the Asagregiam, which, in hindsight, after what happened these past 375 00:30:16,759 --> 00:30:19,279 several weeks, it was clear these are the these are 376 00:30:19,279 --> 00:30:23,400 the guys that they were going to tolerate remaining like 377 00:30:23,599 --> 00:30:34,759 in their official capacities. After that, you're basically it was 378 00:30:34,759 --> 00:30:38,839 no more common ground. There's kind of this, uh, there's 379 00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:48,119 kind of the standoff. You know, the Syrian Arab Republics representatives, 380 00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:51,759 you know, they they continued to participate because I think 381 00:30:51,759 --> 00:30:54,279 they realized if they didn't, they would have marginalized themselves 382 00:30:54,319 --> 00:31:00,920 even further. But the UH it was in twenty twenty 383 00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:05,480 one that was kind of the final that's kind of 384 00:31:05,559 --> 00:31:10,400 a final, final formal meeting of the Stenta Process group. 385 00:31:11,839 --> 00:31:15,599 And again like the Russians, the Turks, the Iranians, they reiterated, 386 00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:19,799 there's also representatives from Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq. There's a 387 00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:23,079 joint statement and this is key from Iran, Russia and 388 00:31:23,119 --> 00:31:26,880 Turkey saying they're opposed to any separatist plans that quote 389 00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:35,319 undermined a unified Syria. But then lo and behold, you 390 00:31:35,359 --> 00:31:40,960 know the war saw up between Israel and Hamas and 391 00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:48,000 then his Blah in October twenty twenty three. Okay, now 392 00:31:49,519 --> 00:31:53,440 as the world wide in to Lebanon and the Golan Heights, 393 00:31:54,680 --> 00:32:00,279 the Israelis got smacked down in southern Lebanon. So they 394 00:32:00,319 --> 00:32:05,079 came to the ceasefire and just in November, you know 395 00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:11,000 this like this past November, and the ceasefire was signed 396 00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:16,319 by Israel and Lebanon, and his Blah gave the Lebanese 397 00:32:16,359 --> 00:32:23,200 foreign minister like cart Bloch and negotiate and this agreement 398 00:32:23,279 --> 00:32:27,359 it mandated a sixty day halt to hostilities, whereby Israel 399 00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:31,039 will draw from southern Lebanon, his blood will withdraw north 400 00:32:31,079 --> 00:32:35,279 of the Latani River. But as soon as this was underway, 401 00:32:36,799 --> 00:32:42,880 Israel started violating the ceasefire line with Syria that it 402 00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:47,160 held in nineteen seventy four, and they started building permanent structures. 403 00:32:47,519 --> 00:32:50,440 So basically Israel was acting as if like the Syrian 404 00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:54,400 state had already collapsed. Immediately after this, like his blah agreement, 405 00:32:55,640 --> 00:33:05,599 you know. And then just the other day, supposedly there's 406 00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:09,319 this uprising against a sad The Russians are claiming, oh, 407 00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:13,640 Israel invaded the Golan Heights and this destabilized everything, and 408 00:33:14,519 --> 00:33:21,160 somehow his blass stood down. Iranian state media was saying, 409 00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:26,200 you're going to see, you know, foreign troops entering Syria, 410 00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:30,599 but don't be afraid. They're not gonna harm religious minorities. 411 00:33:31,559 --> 00:33:34,960 I mean, it's obvious what happened here, you know. And 412 00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:38,480 then immediately like Lavrov was at Doha when this was 413 00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:40,960 going on, and when it wasn't clear what was happening, 414 00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:46,519 and this obnoxious Limey reporter he was like saying, like wait, wait, 415 00:33:46,559 --> 00:33:49,599 we got to talk about human rights and what's the future, 416 00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:51,400 it looks like of Syria when the Russians are no 417 00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:55,240 longer there, and like Lavrov just kind of started smirking 418 00:33:55,319 --> 00:33:58,880 at him, saying, I look, I realized that your business 419 00:33:59,079 --> 00:34:04,160 is drawing attention with this kind of you know, hysterical language. 420 00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:07,279 But he's like, Russia is not going anywhere, you know, 421 00:34:07,359 --> 00:34:11,599 He's like, that's not happening. And then immediately the Kremlin, 422 00:34:12,199 --> 00:34:14,320 you know, after they were done pretending that there was 423 00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:19,119 some sort of civil war underway, they declare, oh Asagee dead, 424 00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:22,639 but you know, we've just reached a deal about our 425 00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:26,599 naval bases. You know these guys. 426 00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:30,440 Speaker 4: Uh it goes to show you that doing business with 427 00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:33,519 the Russians like doing business in America, They've got no 428 00:34:33,639 --> 00:34:36,480 honor man Like, they'll once you out of your usefulness, 429 00:34:36,559 --> 00:34:37,320 they'll just whack you. 430 00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:41,159 Speaker 2: And that's what they did in my opinion, and uh, 431 00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:44,239 Pepe Escobar I used to have respect for him, but 432 00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:47,760 as this was going on, he was like dropping State 433 00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:51,039 Department cap and saying like, Asaude is done, Like the 434 00:34:51,119 --> 00:34:53,639 Russians are finished. You know, they've been kicked out of 435 00:34:53,679 --> 00:34:56,119 the Middle East, and like, what are you talking about? Like, 436 00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:59,079 how could you think that you don't realize what's going 437 00:34:59,119 --> 00:35:02,519 on here. I mean, I think some of these guys 438 00:35:02,559 --> 00:35:09,239 are basically paid for by you know, NGOs and things 439 00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:13,960 who are very insinuated into the American diplomatic establishment. But 440 00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:16,920 a lot of these people are just ignorant. They for 441 00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:21,639 all the time they spend trying to hold themselves out 442 00:35:21,679 --> 00:35:25,360 as these as these kind of strategic analysts, they don't 443 00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:28,000 know what they're talking about. And they CNN to them 444 00:35:28,119 --> 00:35:32,119 is like a source of legitimate information. But you know, 445 00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:36,800 for context about what Israel did hear, because I'm sure 446 00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:40,760 people who are aren't into geography or whatever might not 447 00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:44,400 realize whether the Golan Heights are significant, you know, going 448 00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:47,800 back to the Sixth Day War in June sixty seven, 449 00:35:48,679 --> 00:35:54,440 Israel captured the Golan on June ninth into the June tenth. 450 00:35:55,559 --> 00:35:59,039 It's too it's two distinct areas. It's the Golan Heights proper, 451 00:35:59,559 --> 00:36:03,239 which I was service of about a thousand square kilometers. 452 00:36:03,519 --> 00:36:06,719 Then there's the slopes of the Mount Herman range, which 453 00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:11,199 is about one hundred square kilometers. But this is uh, 454 00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:15,159 this is key because in operational terms, I mean, you 455 00:36:15,159 --> 00:36:18,920 can dump in direct fire on either Israel or or Lebanon, 456 00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:23,719 depending on you know who who you're down range of. 457 00:36:25,159 --> 00:36:30,559 But also Israel needed Laban's wrong, and the ceasefire line 458 00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:34,519 ultimately called the Purple line, you know, has been this 459 00:36:34,639 --> 00:36:38,880 point of contention ever since and most Dayan who is 460 00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:44,679 the defense minister in in up to the seventy three war, 461 00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:47,320 and then he was he was he went down in 462 00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:51,719 disgrace because the claim from Tel Aviv was that, you know, 463 00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:56,320 he he failed to predict probable movements by the Syrian 464 00:36:56,360 --> 00:37:00,639 Arab army. But you know, he said, uh, you know, 465 00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:06,559 he said eighty percent of the classes with Syria and 466 00:37:06,599 --> 00:37:10,119 the run up to sixty seven were deliberately provoked. Because 467 00:37:10,119 --> 00:37:14,119 he said that, you know, the it was, the idea 468 00:37:14,199 --> 00:37:17,559 was the was the provoked hostilities, you know, not just 469 00:37:17,599 --> 00:37:20,280 to push back the mainline of resistance, but to be 470 00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:23,880 able to build Jewish settlements, you know, and and capture 471 00:37:24,199 --> 00:37:29,760 living space literally. But I mean this is held. This 472 00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:32,719 it held for forty four years after the nineteen seventy 473 00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:43,760 four agreement. It was implemented, you know, the disengagement agreement, 474 00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:48,360 and like all of a sudden, now even before before asades, 475 00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:51,239 even like in the grave or before there's even talk 476 00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:57,400 of of replacing the the Bath regime. They're just like 477 00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:03,000 flavoringly violating the demarcation line. And then Yahu said, oh, 478 00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:06,000 the Syria of army abandoned their positions, so like we 479 00:38:06,119 --> 00:38:09,199 thought that, you know, there might be a crisis situation emergent, 480 00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:13,360 so you know, we had we had to advance. But 481 00:38:13,639 --> 00:38:17,400 you know, it's obvious what happened here the Russian ends, 482 00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:22,320 the Turks, the Iranians. What happened is Israel realized that 483 00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:24,599 they had to bring an end to this conflict, okay, 484 00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:28,320 and because that conflict and the Ukraine wore the same thing, 485 00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:32,079 as the situation is coming to a natural end in Ukraine. 486 00:38:33,079 --> 00:38:36,960 The Israelis as well as Kiev. They said, I'm certain 487 00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:41,119 of this, okay, Asad's got to go and we get 488 00:38:41,119 --> 00:38:46,440 the Golan Heights, you know, that's our prerequisite, that's the 489 00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:50,519 pre wreck to negotiations. And the Russians are like, what 490 00:38:50,519 --> 00:38:53,360 do we care? You know, the Turks realize this is 491 00:38:53,360 --> 00:38:55,719 a way to get a permanent toe hold in Syria 492 00:38:55,920 --> 00:39:00,000 and no longer have to you know, play politics about it. 493 00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:05,480 And the Iranians realize, you know, they a lot of 494 00:39:05,519 --> 00:39:08,599 Shia don't even view Alohites. I mean, granted this is 495 00:39:08,639 --> 00:39:11,280 like some of the more extremest elements among them, but 496 00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:13,280 a lot of those guys constitute the hes Bla core. 497 00:39:13,559 --> 00:39:15,960 They don't even do the Alohites as like real Maslims, 498 00:39:16,079 --> 00:39:18,760 which they probably aren't. They're probably a called in Christians. 499 00:39:19,039 --> 00:39:22,079 But they didn't care about hanging a side out to dry. 500 00:39:22,199 --> 00:39:25,719 They're like, we smacked down the IDF. You know, we've 501 00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:28,400 got a concord now with the Shia, with the Sunnis, 502 00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:31,280 you know, through Hamas. So this is like win win 503 00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:37,280 for us, you know. So that that's basically what happened, okay, 504 00:39:37,320 --> 00:39:42,119 and uh, I mean, I guess the positive is that 505 00:39:42,159 --> 00:39:46,079 like America, Losism looks stupid, but I mean America always 506 00:39:46,119 --> 00:39:49,800 loses and looks stupid, you know. But that's that's basically 507 00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:52,679 the breakdown of what happened. You know, the Syrian state 508 00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:56,519 was dismantled by the Russians and the Turks, the Iranians 509 00:39:56,559 --> 00:40:00,239 and Hesbla. They realize, like, you know, this act sally 510 00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:02,800 is good for us, or it can work for us, 511 00:40:03,599 --> 00:40:08,079 you know, because we you know, we we once again 512 00:40:08,119 --> 00:40:09,599 as we did in two thousand and six. You know, 513 00:40:09,639 --> 00:40:13,320 we basically like fourth and Israeli withdraw because we beat 514 00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:17,239 them again, you know. And uh, their view is like, 515 00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:19,760 as long as we have you know, as long as 516 00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:22,280 we've got guarantees from the Salafis, like what do we care, 517 00:40:23,119 --> 00:40:27,239 you know, like our heartland as I Ran, Iraq and 518 00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:30,159 and Uh and Lebanon and so long it's like there's 519 00:40:30,199 --> 00:40:33,239 not a tech theory like war underway, and so long 520 00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:38,199 as like we're not being treated by whatever Suni majority 521 00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:40,480 governments in Syria like we don't care, and like the 522 00:40:40,559 --> 00:40:43,400 Russians ever are back too. So there you go, That's 523 00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:43,960 what happened. 524 00:40:46,199 --> 00:40:50,719 Speaker 1: Does al Jelani stay there as some kind of king 525 00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:57,239 over the ashes very possible. We I've been seeing today 526 00:40:57,880 --> 00:41:00,360 reports and you don't know whether they're they're true or 527 00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:05,000 not of just Israel. It seems like Israel and the 528 00:41:05,119 --> 00:41:07,280 United States for the last twenty four hours has just 529 00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:11,920 been decimating every bit of infrastructure, taking out the navy, 530 00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:18,519 taking out basically anything that they possibly can. Why would 531 00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:22,559 why would Israel and you know, why would US Israel 532 00:41:22,599 --> 00:41:23,199 want to do that? 533 00:41:24,599 --> 00:41:27,920 Speaker 2: Because moving forward, I mean, they're just they're just covering 534 00:41:27,960 --> 00:41:30,800 their bases because they don't want they don't want some 535 00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:34,360 like rump element what was the Syrian Arab army actually 536 00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:40,159 making this into a civil war. They they want they 537 00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:43,159 want Syria to be like basically like a four powers 538 00:41:43,159 --> 00:41:46,800 occupation zone, you know, and that's what it's becoming. And 539 00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:49,920 they don't want any they don't want any uncertainty there. 540 00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:54,519 So they're basically going to deprive Syria proper. They're going 541 00:41:54,599 --> 00:41:57,280 to deprive like whatever this new Syrian government is of 542 00:41:57,559 --> 00:42:01,119 any kind of like arms of its own, and uh, 543 00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:03,000 you know again they don't they don't want a bunch 544 00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:04,559 of like military, They don't want a bunch of like 545 00:42:05,360 --> 00:42:08,599 they don't want a bunch of you know, heavy weapons 546 00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:11,800 lying around, and they don't want a much of armor 547 00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:18,000 and and and and warships around that you know, could 548 00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:19,960 be appropriated if things go to hell again. I mean 549 00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:23,079 that's why you know it's now they don'tant anything to 550 00:42:23,159 --> 00:42:28,559 happen in Syria, not that you know right now. It's 551 00:42:28,599 --> 00:42:34,239 in everybody's interests and not provoke hostilities, you know, in 552 00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:38,039 the terms the Russians and the Iranians aren't, So that 553 00:42:38,280 --> 00:42:42,360 leaves these kind of unknown quantities and they don't know 554 00:42:42,519 --> 00:42:47,079 either this like Salafi element that like has the government 555 00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:49,679 you know, they want to disarm them as much as possible, 556 00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:52,000 at least in terms of their ability to must have 557 00:42:52,079 --> 00:42:53,920 combined arms or something. That's why. 558 00:42:55,559 --> 00:42:59,920 Speaker 1: Do you think any promises that you talk about Russia, 559 00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:05,719 Turkey and Iran was the US Israel in on this 560 00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:09,920 at all giving promises to Russia of anything in Ukraine? 561 00:43:11,000 --> 00:43:12,760 You know, you can have the you can have the 562 00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:15,440 areas you want in Ukraine as you'r as this thing 563 00:43:15,559 --> 00:43:19,840 is winding down, we Iran, We'll take the heat off 564 00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:22,639 of you and you know, we'll just it'll. 565 00:43:24,159 --> 00:43:24,559 Speaker 2: Was there. 566 00:43:24,639 --> 00:43:28,519 Speaker 1: And do you think there was any kind of bartering 567 00:43:28,719 --> 00:43:31,239 on the United States Israel? 568 00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:35,880 Speaker 2: And oh yeah, definitely, except the multi came from Israel. 569 00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:38,079 And this one guy I can't remember his name, does 570 00:43:38,119 --> 00:43:42,920 this one? Uh? Does this one? There's this one guy 571 00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:45,320 who's like kind of like a minister without portfolio for 572 00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:50,719 like the the Biden regime, and he's been doing he's 573 00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:54,880 been going back and forth between here in Israel, and 574 00:43:56,239 --> 00:44:00,519 he's also got links to Ukraine and stuff. Obviously. I mean, like, yeah, 575 00:44:00,599 --> 00:44:02,679 I think he definitely has taken a role and the 576 00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:07,679 israelis absolutely have and Israel essentially controls Kiev. But I 577 00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:10,760 mean America, the American diplomatic corp Are like total idiots, 578 00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:13,440 Like nobody listened to them, nobody takes them seriously. They 579 00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:16,280 don't know what the fuck's going on. So yeah, I 580 00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:21,519 mean the people who nominally represent like the regime's interest 581 00:44:21,719 --> 00:44:24,679 and they've been like, yeah, definitely doing that. But I'm 582 00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:26,920 not gonna credit department to stay with that because those 583 00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:29,880 people are too stupid to live. But yeah, definitely, and 584 00:44:30,039 --> 00:44:34,119 the you know, that was basically why. That's also why, 585 00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:37,719 like the Zelenski's a total piece of shit. But when 586 00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:40,639 he's like, you know, the war can't indy it, like 587 00:44:40,760 --> 00:44:42,960 this is part of what he was talking about, you know, 588 00:44:43,079 --> 00:44:45,079 like until like this gets resolved, because this is the 589 00:44:45,159 --> 00:44:48,199 other frauds, you know, like we can't commit to anything 590 00:44:48,599 --> 00:44:51,440 because the whole point of this war anyway was we're 591 00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:53,880 gonna tie on the Ivans and we're gonna pose attrition 592 00:44:54,079 --> 00:44:56,360 and we're not gonna stop until we can like eke 593 00:44:56,400 --> 00:45:01,920 out concessions in theater being Israel and the levant in Syria. 594 00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:05,360 So yeah, definitely, But I mean it's clear when it happened, 595 00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:08,199 Like I said, I don't I'm not, I don't know, 596 00:45:08,199 --> 00:45:10,159 have some kind of like, I'm not some augurs if 597 00:45:10,199 --> 00:45:13,840 there should be obvious to people, I think, but yeah. 598 00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:19,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, after we disconnected on Saturday night, it just immediately 599 00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:22,039 the only thing that came to my mind was that 600 00:45:23,119 --> 00:45:26,400 a deal was made with Russia to give them what 601 00:45:26,480 --> 00:45:28,199 they want in Ukraine, since they're not going to have 602 00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:33,199 any ports in Syria anymore, leave Iran alone. Turkey would 603 00:45:33,239 --> 00:45:36,880 have more influence with their proxies in the in the 604 00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:40,880 north of northern what is Syria, and then Israel would 605 00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:44,719 have more influence with themselves and their proxies in southern Syria. 606 00:45:45,000 --> 00:45:47,880 It just seemed like this was like horse trading. And 607 00:45:49,079 --> 00:45:51,440 I mean, I could definitely completely wrong, but that that 608 00:45:51,559 --> 00:45:52,679 seems exactly what it was. 609 00:45:54,159 --> 00:45:56,880 Speaker 2: You're right with the exception that Russia absolutely is keeping 610 00:45:56,880 --> 00:46:00,360 their ports. Russia is never giving up those ports. Russia 611 00:46:00,360 --> 00:46:02,679 will go to general war before they give up those ports. 612 00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:06,920 Their access to the Eastern Mediterranean and thus to Africa 613 00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:11,159 are reliant upon those ports. They will never give them up. 614 00:46:11,840 --> 00:46:18,159 And if Turkey and Iran and UH even if Turkey 615 00:46:18,159 --> 00:46:22,400 and Iran and hashed something out, if if American Israel 616 00:46:22,519 --> 00:46:26,079 had had tried to finesse some way to turn the 617 00:46:26,119 --> 00:46:30,559 Salafi element on the Russians and like banish their their 618 00:46:30,639 --> 00:46:33,159 Mediterranean fleet like the Russia. The Russians would have started 619 00:46:33,199 --> 00:46:35,800 just like dumping fire on them. Yeah, they would have 620 00:46:35,800 --> 00:46:39,480 been like, oh, that's not happening. But yeah. Otherwise, yeah, 621 00:46:39,519 --> 00:46:40,920 you're right, that's exactly what happened. 622 00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:46,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, and if Russia does keep their ports, then it 623 00:46:46,559 --> 00:46:49,440 should be obvious to everybody what how this happened. I 624 00:46:49,519 --> 00:46:53,719 mean to believe anyone who believes that Syria was taken 625 00:46:53,960 --> 00:47:00,599 in basically five days by you know, a rebel basically groups, 626 00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:04,400 and that the country falls and Aside has to leave 627 00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:09,480 and it wasn't some kind of deals weren't made all 628 00:47:09,519 --> 00:47:11,280 over the place for this to happen. You got to 629 00:47:11,320 --> 00:47:12,840 be out of your mind. I mean, no one's going 630 00:47:12,920 --> 00:47:15,519 to take No one could take Syria in five days 631 00:47:15,880 --> 00:47:18,920 unless something really fucked up happen. 632 00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:23,480 Speaker 2: What's also disgraceful, you know again, the guys who actually 633 00:47:23,559 --> 00:47:28,480 fought this, you know, the Eagles of the Whirlwind, you know, 634 00:47:28,519 --> 00:47:31,840 they're those guys are basically national socialists. You know, they're 635 00:47:31,840 --> 00:47:35,519 the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, which ASAD brought into the 636 00:47:35,599 --> 00:47:40,000 government in about twenty fifteen. I think I might be 637 00:47:40,079 --> 00:47:42,280 off on that. It might have been later, but before 638 00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:46,159 that they've been excluded. It's like extremist element. And those 639 00:47:46,199 --> 00:47:49,000 guys fought and a bunch of them died, you know, 640 00:47:49,159 --> 00:47:52,599 And that's those guys are if you're any kind of 641 00:47:52,599 --> 00:47:54,800 if you if you're gonna real right winger, like, those 642 00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:59,840 are your guys, you know, and is you know, they 643 00:48:00,000 --> 00:48:02,679 they're they're the ones who they're they're the big losers 644 00:48:02,719 --> 00:48:05,079 in this and the ones who got backstabbed as well 645 00:48:05,079 --> 00:48:09,480 as Asad, who was a great man and the kind 646 00:48:09,519 --> 00:48:13,039 of the you know, and he was a reluctant air 647 00:48:13,920 --> 00:48:16,480 to a dynasty that was a great dynasty. This is 648 00:48:16,719 --> 00:48:19,199 very very bad man and it's very it's a very 649 00:48:19,440 --> 00:48:23,280 sad thing. But it's not you know, I mean it's 650 00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:25,199 like it was. 651 00:48:25,360 --> 00:48:25,519 Speaker 4: It was. 652 00:48:25,599 --> 00:48:28,039 Speaker 2: It was offensive to me again like just people like 653 00:48:28,199 --> 00:48:31,239 parroting what like MSNBC SAIDs it's like what are you like? 654 00:48:31,320 --> 00:48:32,719 Are you are you? Are you mental? 655 00:48:32,880 --> 00:48:32,920 Speaker 3: Like? 656 00:48:33,039 --> 00:48:36,239 Speaker 2: Are you you know? So No, I was upset by 657 00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:38,480 the whole thing. I was not even melodramatic or something, 658 00:48:38,599 --> 00:48:42,679 but yeah, I mean that's what that that's what transpired. 659 00:48:44,639 --> 00:48:47,559 Speaker 1: Yeah, people people compare try to people tried to compare 660 00:48:47,639 --> 00:48:51,039 this to Kadafi getting overthrown. I'm like, this is so 661 00:48:51,159 --> 00:48:51,639 much worse. 662 00:48:52,119 --> 00:48:56,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, this is so much worse, and it's also nothing 663 00:48:56,599 --> 00:49:00,159 like that, like I just you know, like the on 664 00:49:00,199 --> 00:49:03,840 the one hand, I mean, yeah, the Syrian people are 665 00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:08,000 gonna suffer terribly, and there was you know, like brave 666 00:49:08,119 --> 00:49:11,960 soldiers like like I said, these these these guys egos 667 00:49:11,960 --> 00:49:19,119 to the Whirlwind Militiam and others. But you know, I mean, 668 00:49:19,400 --> 00:49:23,360 at least, uh, at least the incoming administration isn't going 669 00:49:23,400 --> 00:49:27,079 to be able to like wage these irrational zionist wars. 670 00:49:27,119 --> 00:49:28,639 It's gonna be at least like a decade and a 671 00:49:28,679 --> 00:49:31,719 half before they could do that at scale, and with 672 00:49:32,039 --> 00:49:35,440 successive complex cycle they're like less able to intervene directly. 673 00:49:36,159 --> 00:49:38,280 There's just like not the forces and being there's not 674 00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:42,320 the political will, like anybody thinks like America is like 675 00:49:42,400 --> 00:49:44,960 winning is like out of their fucking mind, you know. 676 00:49:45,239 --> 00:49:48,360 So I mean that that is good. You know, the 677 00:49:48,440 --> 00:49:50,920 regimes getting weaker, it's less able to hurt people. It's 678 00:49:51,000 --> 00:49:54,400 less able to you know, as as it goes down 679 00:49:54,639 --> 00:49:56,840 over these next like one hundred and fifty years or whatever, 680 00:49:56,960 --> 00:49:59,800 it's going to continue to harm people and destabilize things. 681 00:50:00,000 --> 00:50:02,960 But it's becoming like less and less respective, less and 682 00:50:03,039 --> 00:50:06,519 less serious, more and more reliant on mercenaries because they 683 00:50:07,320 --> 00:50:09,679 can't muster their own forces and beings. So that's good, 684 00:50:10,199 --> 00:50:13,039 you know, it has blood. Victory is good, you know. 685 00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:18,599 And Russia, however, I might feel about the way the 686 00:50:18,679 --> 00:50:22,760 Russians conduct their politics and the duplicity therein. You know, 687 00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:25,639 it's essential that Russia remain in the Near East as 688 00:50:25,679 --> 00:50:31,199 a direct counterweight to Israel and America. So I mean 689 00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:36,440 those those things, uh like, like like America the regime, 690 00:50:36,559 --> 00:50:39,480 the American regime lost here, but that that's not the 691 00:50:39,599 --> 00:50:42,000 end all be all of everything. There's other tragedies here. 692 00:50:42,440 --> 00:50:44,159 I mean that that's that's a good thing. Where there's 693 00:50:44,280 --> 00:50:48,239 where there's tragedies inherent as well. So yeah, that's that's 694 00:50:48,280 --> 00:50:50,719 the breakdown of it, all right. 695 00:50:50,760 --> 00:50:52,599 Speaker 1: I got a storm rolling and that's about ready to 696 00:50:52,719 --> 00:50:57,400 take to mess with my satellite, so plugs don't get 697 00:50:57,400 --> 00:50:57,719 out of here. 698 00:51:00,039 --> 00:51:05,000 Speaker 2: Yeah. Man, The best place to find me is on substack. 699 00:51:05,920 --> 00:51:08,440 That's what my podcast is is and other good stuff 700 00:51:08,599 --> 00:51:12,440 and a very active chat. It's real Thomas seven seven 701 00:51:12,559 --> 00:51:17,320 seven dot subseat dot com. I'm on social media at 702 00:51:17,559 --> 00:51:22,320 Capital ri e A L underscore number seven h O 703 00:51:22,480 --> 00:51:26,320 A S seven seven seven. My website is kind of 704 00:51:26,360 --> 00:51:29,239 a one stop place, is like a nude a news 705 00:51:29,320 --> 00:51:36,360 feed when I upload new content or whatever. It's number 706 00:51:36,440 --> 00:51:39,760 seven h O M A S seven seven seven dot com. 707 00:51:40,800 --> 00:51:44,199 I'm gonna be out of town from Thursday morning until 708 00:51:44,360 --> 00:51:48,719 the morning of the sixteenth, So the next few days 709 00:51:48,880 --> 00:51:52,480 I'm gonna try and dip into the panel discussion with 710 00:51:52,559 --> 00:51:55,559 you fellows on Friday while I'm on the road. But 711 00:51:56,000 --> 00:51:59,239 other than that, it's probably gonna be a minute, like 712 00:51:59,719 --> 00:52:01,679 you know, just like a week or something before I 713 00:52:02,159 --> 00:52:04,719 do anything fresh, So just everybody be aware of it. 714 00:52:06,440 --> 00:52:07,599 Speaker 1: Thank you, appreciate you. 715 00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:09,719 Speaker 2: Take care. Yeah,