Speaker 1: Bitcoin crashes to fifty four thousand dollars as all coins
Speaker 1: bleed out, The stock market is crashing. What the hell
Speaker 1: is happening here, folks? What is Jerome Pallem the FED
Speaker 1: gonna do? Are they gonna come in and save us? Well,
Speaker 1: we got to talk about different facts and metrics and
Speaker 1: so forth, because is the bullmarket over that? Let's let's
Speaker 1: talk about it. Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast.
Speaker 1: You're home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host,
Speaker 1: Tony Edward. On your way in, Please at that subscribe
Speaker 1: button as well as the thumbs up button and leave
Speaker 1: a comment below. If you're listening on a podcast platform
Speaker 1: such as Spotify or Apple, please leave a five star
Speaker 1: rating and review. Folks. I don't want to look at
Speaker 1: the coin market capitalists, but I have to. It's pretty
Speaker 1: rough out there. It's a sea of red, a bloody,
Speaker 1: bloody market capitalist here with Bitcoin at fifty four twenty
Speaker 1: five at the time of recording, Etheroreum below three thousand
Speaker 1: dollars at two thousand, three hundred and fifty six dollars,
Speaker 1: BnB at four hundred and fifty six dollars, Salona at
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty one dollars, XRP at forty eight cents,
Speaker 1: ton Coin at five dollars and sixty cents Cardono at
Speaker 1: thirty one cents. Ooh, this is painful to look at.
Speaker 1: But guys, we got to leave our emotions at the
Speaker 1: door and let's look at some facts. Let's see what's
Speaker 1: happening on the charts and what different metrics are telling
Speaker 1: us now. The other day I shared with you guys
Speaker 1: the daily RSI and how you have to read that
Speaker 1: chart where if it is at seventy or higher, it
Speaker 1: is an overbought zone and expect a price correction. And likewise,
Speaker 1: if the RSI is below thirty, it's in an over
Speaker 1: soul zone and you can expect the bounce in the price.
Speaker 1: So Bitcoin right now went belowed at thirty on the
Speaker 1: daily RSI, so we could see a bound soon. The
Speaker 1: challenge is Bitcoin has been trying to break upwards for
Speaker 1: a long time and it's not getting the momentum because
Speaker 1: there's a variety of different factors which I'm going to
Speaker 1: touch on, but let me share some other things for context.
Speaker 1: The stock market is bleeding as well. SMP five hundred,
Speaker 1: and that's that both of which had RSIs in the
Speaker 1: seventy zone and higher. Actually they were up to eighties.
Speaker 1: So these were due for a correction. And when in doubt,
Speaker 1: zoom out. We're still at higher highs and higher lows, folks,
Speaker 1: And that's the important thing, right when in dowed, zoom out.
Speaker 1: Same thing for bitcoin. There hasn't been any type of
Speaker 1: major invalidation for the bull market. So I believe number one,
Speaker 1: we are still in a bullmarket. Now that could change.
Speaker 1: I'm not saying that it can't ever happen. Anything is possible.
Speaker 1: The question is always what is the probability. Is it
Speaker 1: highly probable that we are still in a bullmarket or
Speaker 1: is it highly probable that this is it? It's the end.
Speaker 1: I'd say it's on the highly probable that we are
Speaker 1: in a bull market, and there's different metrics that are
Speaker 1: showing that we are still there. So the dx y
Speaker 1: continues to crash downwards, that's a good sign for risk assets,
Speaker 1: and like I said, Bitcoin is at that over soul zone,
Speaker 1: so we can see a bounds pretty soon. In addition,
Speaker 1: the market has turned fearful. Bitcoin fear and greed in
Speaker 1: it is out of twenty six, so this could be
Speaker 1: a final flesh out before we see a bounce upwards.
Speaker 1: And for some perspective, guys, look at this. The price
Speaker 1: of bitcoin trading in August twenty twenty three was twenty nine,
Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty eight dollars. Right now, obviously it's
Speaker 1: fifty four thousand. We're still up, So that's my point.
Speaker 1: Etherorem is still up, Solon is still up, so we
Speaker 1: have to be patient and let these things play out.
Speaker 1: In addition, the pie cycle in top indicator has not
Speaker 1: crossed yet, guys, and this has been spot on historically,
Speaker 1: so let's see what happens here. You know, I was
Speaker 1: tweeting out earlier today that potentially Bitcoin could be playing
Speaker 1: out like it did in twenty thirteen twenty fourteen. If
Speaker 1: you go back on the Bitcoin Charity, look at it
Speaker 1: the twenty thirteen to twenty fourteen cycle. There was a
Speaker 1: huge spike up, guys, and then a huge correction downwards.
Speaker 1: But then bitcoin kept moving sideways and chopping, and then
Speaker 1: it had some big dumps along the way, and then
Speaker 1: it did a parabolic move to new all time highs.
Speaker 1: Something similar could be happening here because we had an
Speaker 1: incredible run up a very sharp run up with the
Speaker 1: ETF buying, right, Bitcoin was ahead of schedule. It hit
Speaker 1: a new all time high before the having So I
Speaker 1: feel that type of situation is happening here. I could
Speaker 1: be wrong. Bitcoin, could you know, over the next week
Speaker 1: just rally insanely and then disprove that theory. But we
Speaker 1: have to go with the facts and based on what
Speaker 1: we're seeing here and try to form a thesis because
Speaker 1: we don't want to use our emotions. So based on
Speaker 1: how things have moved historically, that could be playing out here.
Speaker 1: And this is just some really big cool down after
Speaker 1: a really big surge with that ETF buying earlier this year.
Speaker 1: So we'll have to wait and see. But some of
Speaker 1: the other factors I've been sharing with you guys, and
Speaker 1: actually there's some new info here. China's M two money
Speaker 1: supply just broke out. It's increasing. The other day I
Speaker 1: shared with you guys the US M too money supplier
Speaker 1: straight from the Federal Reserves website, and you see here
Speaker 1: it's back over twenty one trillion dollars as of June.
Speaker 1: So there's been a lot of liquidity being injected by
Speaker 1: the Treasury. Janet Yellen is doing stealth QY quantitative easing
Speaker 1: two point zero, and I think the Fed is going
Speaker 1: to have to cut rates, possibly earlier than September, because
Speaker 1: the markets are tanking. Here. It's an election year, so
Speaker 1: we've been talking about this for a long time. Any
Speaker 1: sitting president wants the stock market to look good to
Speaker 1: come the election, especially if they're up for reelection. We
Speaker 1: know the situation is a bit different with Kamala Harris,
Speaker 1: of course, but the Democrats want to maintain power, so
Speaker 1: expect that the Fed will be influenced to cut rates
Speaker 1: sooner than later, especially as we're seeing the job numbers
Speaker 1: tank and the employment numbers tank as well, So we
Speaker 1: could see Janet Yellen continue to inject liquidity and the
Speaker 1: Fed possibly this month come on say we're cutting rates,
Speaker 1: which I think the markets will rally off that news.
Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, though, you know,
Speaker 1: it's funny how these things all work together, and there's
Speaker 1: narratives out there, and there's a bunch of analysts highlighting that,
Speaker 1: for example, there was CME gaps that needed to be filled.
Speaker 1: So it's funny how these things line up right, and
Speaker 1: it looks like they're going to be filling. Because Bitcoin
Speaker 1: went down to fifty four KA, So there it is.
Speaker 1: In addition, you know, some other analysts are highlighting that
Speaker 1: August and September for the most part, are not great
Speaker 1: performance months. The best performing months are actually October November.
Speaker 1: And then you know, you do have earlier in the
Speaker 1: year such as February, March, April, but you know, right
Speaker 1: now June, the summer. I think I've said it to
Speaker 1: you guys, people say like sell in May and go
Speaker 1: away because the summer months is usually not much happening
Speaker 1: now love liquidity and so forth. What's also driving a
Speaker 1: ton of seal pressure is Jump Crypto moves hundreds of
Speaker 1: millions in crypto as a price slide, so apparently they've
Speaker 1: been dumping Bitcoin and eth and so forth. Even Ral Palell,
Speaker 1: macro investor, tweeted out question, does anyone have any further
Speaker 1: info in the rumor that Jump Trading has been liquidating
Speaker 1: their crypto for full So I don't know what the
Speaker 1: hell is going on with Jump, but there's your cell pressure.
Speaker 1: There has been some outflow from the bitcoin e tips
Speaker 1: as well. But what we saw in conjunction with this
Speaker 1: is that Blackrock was still buying their wallets still showed
Speaker 1: crypto coming into their respective funds. So guys, at this point,
Speaker 1: you know what I'm doing, not financial or investment advice.
Speaker 1: I'm not looking at the price as often. I am
Speaker 1: taking mental health, sorry, because it sucks to see your
Speaker 1: portfolio down, even though I'm up from the bear market bottom.
Speaker 1: Don't get me wrong, I'm in the profit right now,
Speaker 1: but it sucks to see these crashes. And this is
Speaker 1: the volatility that crypto has, but it allows you to
Speaker 1: make money it once you understand the volatility is your friend.
Speaker 1: I'm looking for buying opportunities, not financial advice. Please do
Speaker 1: your own research. Okay, I'm not telling you to go
Speaker 1: and buy anything, but I'm going to look to load
Speaker 1: up on some more all coins as they bleed out
Speaker 1: and get ready for Bitcoin to find it bottom and
Speaker 1: then start moving upwards again. Guys, we've seen this story
Speaker 1: time and time again last summer. In fact, in August
Speaker 1: there was a big dump as well, if you go
Speaker 1: back and look at the charts, and it wasn't until
Speaker 1: October the things started moving. So be prepared, my friends,
Speaker 1: that this thing could just stay down here and chop
Speaker 1: sideways before we see a move upwards, and maybe it
Speaker 1: comes sooner if the FED cuts rates sooner. But just
Speaker 1: be prepared, guys, and step away, you know, go enjoy
Speaker 1: your summer. Right, So that's what I do, so I
Speaker 1: maintain my mental health when it comes to markets and
Speaker 1: so forth, because you know, watching too much of this,
Speaker 1: the bleeding out of your profits, it's not fun. Once again,
Speaker 1: I'm not worried, I'm not panicking. I'm just I've learned
Speaker 1: my lesson over the years to not focus on it.
Speaker 1: As long as I'm looking at the appropriate metrics and
Speaker 1: seeing that there are multiple metrics saying we're still in
Speaker 1: the bullmarket and it hasn't been invalidated, and there are
Speaker 1: macro factors like money supply and global liquidity that's on
Speaker 1: the rise, then my mind is at ease, and I'm
Speaker 1: basing my thesis and my perspective on those facts, not
Speaker 1: my emotions, not what the headlines say. So, guys, that's
Speaker 1: my take on it and my hope once again, because
Speaker 1: bitcoin is hitting that over sould zone that we see
Speaker 1: some sort of balance and relief here. But I'm not
Speaker 1: expecting a surge to new all time eyes unless the
Speaker 1: Fed Jerome Powell come out and say, hey, we're maybe
Speaker 1: doing these cuts. We're cutting by one hundred basis points
Speaker 1: or something. Right, we'll see. I'm just throwing ideas out there,
Speaker 1: but based once again, based on the facts and different
Speaker 1: metrics I showed you guys here. I think we're fine.
Speaker 1: Bull Market still continues, but a lot of volatility similar
Speaker 1: to what we saw in last summer. All right, guys,
Speaker 1: let me know what you think. Leave your thoughts in
Speaker 1: commons below, hit the thumbs up button. Don't forget to
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Speaker 1: a copy of my book Rethinking Crypto and Amazon. Thank
Speaker 1: you guys for watching and listening. I appreciate you all,
Speaker 1: and I'll talk to you all later