WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin crashes to fifty four thousand dollars as all coins

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<v Speaker 1>bleed out, The stock market is crashing. What the hell

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<v Speaker 1>is happening here, folks? What is Jerome Pallem the FED

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<v Speaker 1>gonna do? Are they gonna come in and save us? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>we got to talk about different facts and metrics and

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<v Speaker 1>so forth, because is the bullmarket over that? Let's let's

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<v Speaker 1>talk about it. Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>You're home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host,

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<v Speaker 1>Tony Edward. On your way in, Please at that subscribe

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<v Speaker 1>button as well as the thumbs up button and leave

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<v Speaker 1>a comment below. If you're listening on a podcast platform

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<v Speaker 1>such as Spotify or Apple, please leave a five star

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<v Speaker 1>rating and review. Folks. I don't want to look at

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<v Speaker 1>the coin market capitalists, but I have to. It's pretty

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<v Speaker 1>rough out there. It's a sea of red, a bloody,

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<v Speaker 1>bloody market capitalist here with Bitcoin at fifty four twenty

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<v Speaker 1>five at the time of recording, Etheroreum below three thousand

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<v Speaker 1>dollars at two thousand, three hundred and fifty six dollars,

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<v Speaker 1>BnB at four hundred and fifty six dollars, Salona at

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred and thirty one dollars, XRP at forty eight cents,

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<v Speaker 1>ton Coin at five dollars and sixty cents Cardono at

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<v Speaker 1>thirty one cents. Ooh, this is painful to look at.

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<v Speaker 1>But guys, we got to leave our emotions at the

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<v Speaker 1>door and let's look at some facts. Let's see what's

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<v Speaker 1>happening on the charts and what different metrics are telling

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<v Speaker 1>us now. The other day I shared with you guys

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<v Speaker 1>the daily RSI and how you have to read that

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<v Speaker 1>chart where if it is at seventy or higher, it

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<v Speaker 1>is an overbought zone and expect a price correction. And likewise,

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<v Speaker 1>if the RSI is below thirty, it's in an over

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<v Speaker 1>soul zone and you can expect the bounce in the price.

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<v Speaker 1>So Bitcoin right now went belowed at thirty on the

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<v Speaker 1>daily RSI, so we could see a bound soon. The

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<v Speaker 1>challenge is Bitcoin has been trying to break upwards for

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<v Speaker 1>a long time and it's not getting the momentum because

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<v Speaker 1>there's a variety of different factors which I'm going to

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<v Speaker 1>touch on, but let me share some other things for context.

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<v Speaker 1>The stock market is bleeding as well. SMP five hundred,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's that both of which had RSIs in the

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<v Speaker 1>seventy zone and higher. Actually they were up to eighties.

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<v Speaker 1>So these were due for a correction. And when in doubt,

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<v Speaker 1>zoom out. We're still at higher highs and higher lows, folks,

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<v Speaker 1>And that's the important thing, right when in dowed, zoom out.

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<v Speaker 1>Same thing for bitcoin. There hasn't been any type of

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<v Speaker 1>major invalidation for the bull market. So I believe number one,

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<v Speaker 1>we are still in a bullmarket. Now that could change.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not saying that it can't ever happen. Anything is possible.

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<v Speaker 1>The question is always what is the probability. Is it

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<v Speaker 1>highly probable that we are still in a bullmarket or

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<v Speaker 1>is it highly probable that this is it? It's the end.

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<v Speaker 1>I'd say it's on the highly probable that we are

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<v Speaker 1>in a bull market, and there's different metrics that are

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<v Speaker 1>showing that we are still there. So the dx y

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<v Speaker 1>continues to crash downwards, that's a good sign for risk assets,

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<v Speaker 1>and like I said, Bitcoin is at that over soul zone,

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<v Speaker 1>so we can see a bounds pretty soon. In addition,

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<v Speaker 1>the market has turned fearful. Bitcoin fear and greed in

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<v Speaker 1>it is out of twenty six, so this could be

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<v Speaker 1>a final flesh out before we see a bounce upwards.

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<v Speaker 1>And for some perspective, guys, look at this. The price

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<v Speaker 1>of bitcoin trading in August twenty twenty three was twenty nine,

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<v Speaker 1>two hundred and fifty eight dollars. Right now, obviously it's

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<v Speaker 1>fifty four thousand. We're still up, So that's my point.

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<v Speaker 1>Etherorem is still up, Solon is still up, so we

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<v Speaker 1>have to be patient and let these things play out.

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<v Speaker 1>In addition, the pie cycle in top indicator has not

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<v Speaker 1>crossed yet, guys, and this has been spot on historically,

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<v Speaker 1>so let's see what happens here. You know, I was

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<v Speaker 1>tweeting out earlier today that potentially Bitcoin could be playing

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<v Speaker 1>out like it did in twenty thirteen twenty fourteen. If

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<v Speaker 1>you go back on the Bitcoin Charity, look at it

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<v Speaker 1>the twenty thirteen to twenty fourteen cycle. There was a

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<v Speaker 1>huge spike up, guys, and then a huge correction downwards.

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<v Speaker 1>But then bitcoin kept moving sideways and chopping, and then

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<v Speaker 1>it had some big dumps along the way, and then

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<v Speaker 1>it did a parabolic move to new all time highs.

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<v Speaker 1>Something similar could be happening here because we had an

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<v Speaker 1>incredible run up a very sharp run up with the

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<v Speaker 1>ETF buying, right, Bitcoin was ahead of schedule. It hit

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<v Speaker 1>a new all time high before the having So I

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<v Speaker 1>feel that type of situation is happening here. I could

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<v Speaker 1>be wrong. Bitcoin, could you know, over the next week

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<v Speaker 1>just rally insanely and then disprove that theory. But we

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<v Speaker 1>have to go with the facts and based on what

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<v Speaker 1>we're seeing here and try to form a thesis because

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<v Speaker 1>we don't want to use our emotions. So based on

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<v Speaker 1>how things have moved historically, that could be playing out here.

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<v Speaker 1>And this is just some really big cool down after

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<v Speaker 1>a really big surge with that ETF buying earlier this year.

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<v Speaker 1>So we'll have to wait and see. But some of

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<v Speaker 1>the other factors I've been sharing with you guys, and

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<v Speaker 1>actually there's some new info here. China's M two money

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<v Speaker 1>supply just broke out. It's increasing. The other day I

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<v Speaker 1>shared with you guys the US M too money supplier

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<v Speaker 1>straight from the Federal Reserves website, and you see here

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<v Speaker 1>it's back over twenty one trillion dollars as of June.

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<v Speaker 1>So there's been a lot of liquidity being injected by

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<v Speaker 1>the Treasury. Janet Yellen is doing stealth QY quantitative easing

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<v Speaker 1>two point zero, and I think the Fed is going

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<v Speaker 1>to have to cut rates, possibly earlier than September, because

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<v Speaker 1>the markets are tanking. Here. It's an election year, so

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<v Speaker 1>we've been talking about this for a long time. Any

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<v Speaker 1>sitting president wants the stock market to look good to

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<v Speaker 1>come the election, especially if they're up for reelection. We

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<v Speaker 1>know the situation is a bit different with Kamala Harris,

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<v Speaker 1>of course, but the Democrats want to maintain power, so

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<v Speaker 1>expect that the Fed will be influenced to cut rates

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<v Speaker 1>sooner than later, especially as we're seeing the job numbers

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<v Speaker 1>tank and the employment numbers tank as well, So we

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<v Speaker 1>could see Janet Yellen continue to inject liquidity and the

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<v Speaker 1>Fed possibly this month come on say we're cutting rates,

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<v Speaker 1>which I think the markets will rally off that news.

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<v Speaker 1>But at the end of the day, though, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's funny how these things all work together, and there's

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<v Speaker 1>narratives out there, and there's a bunch of analysts highlighting that,

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<v Speaker 1>for example, there was CME gaps that needed to be filled.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's funny how these things line up right, and

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<v Speaker 1>it looks like they're going to be filling. Because Bitcoin

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<v Speaker 1>went down to fifty four KA, So there it is.

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<v Speaker 1>In addition, you know, some other analysts are highlighting that

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<v Speaker 1>August and September for the most part, are not great

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<v Speaker 1>performance months. The best performing months are actually October November.

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<v Speaker 1>And then you know, you do have earlier in the

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<v Speaker 1>year such as February, March, April, but you know, right

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<v Speaker 1>now June, the summer. I think I've said it to

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<v Speaker 1>you guys, people say like sell in May and go

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<v Speaker 1>away because the summer months is usually not much happening

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<v Speaker 1>now love liquidity and so forth. What's also driving a

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<v Speaker 1>ton of seal pressure is Jump Crypto moves hundreds of

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<v Speaker 1>millions in crypto as a price slide, so apparently they've

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<v Speaker 1>been dumping Bitcoin and eth and so forth. Even Ral Palell,

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<v Speaker 1>macro investor, tweeted out question, does anyone have any further

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<v Speaker 1>info in the rumor that Jump Trading has been liquidating

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<v Speaker 1>their crypto for full So I don't know what the

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<v Speaker 1>hell is going on with Jump, but there's your cell pressure.

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<v Speaker 1>There has been some outflow from the bitcoin e tips

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<v Speaker 1>as well. But what we saw in conjunction with this

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<v Speaker 1>is that Blackrock was still buying their wallets still showed

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<v Speaker 1>crypto coming into their respective funds. So guys, at this point,

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<v Speaker 1>you know what I'm doing, not financial or investment advice.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not looking at the price as often. I am

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<v Speaker 1>taking mental health, sorry, because it sucks to see your

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<v Speaker 1>portfolio down, even though I'm up from the bear market bottom.

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<v Speaker 1>Don't get me wrong, I'm in the profit right now,

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<v Speaker 1>but it sucks to see these crashes. And this is

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<v Speaker 1>the volatility that crypto has, but it allows you to

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<v Speaker 1>make money it once you understand the volatility is your friend.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm looking for buying opportunities, not financial advice. Please do

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<v Speaker 1>your own research. Okay, I'm not telling you to go

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<v Speaker 1>and buy anything, but I'm going to look to load

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<v Speaker 1>up on some more all coins as they bleed out

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<v Speaker 1>and get ready for Bitcoin to find it bottom and

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<v Speaker 1>then start moving upwards again. Guys, we've seen this story

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<v Speaker 1>time and time again last summer. In fact, in August

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<v Speaker 1>there was a big dump as well, if you go

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<v Speaker 1>back and look at the charts, and it wasn't until

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<v Speaker 1>October the things started moving. So be prepared, my friends,

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<v Speaker 1>that this thing could just stay down here and chop

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<v Speaker 1>sideways before we see a move upwards, and maybe it

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<v Speaker 1>comes sooner if the FED cuts rates sooner. But just

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<v Speaker 1>be prepared, guys, and step away, you know, go enjoy

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<v Speaker 1>your summer. Right, So that's what I do, so I

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<v Speaker 1>maintain my mental health when it comes to markets and

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<v Speaker 1>so forth, because you know, watching too much of this,

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<v Speaker 1>the bleeding out of your profits, it's not fun. Once again,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not worried, I'm not panicking. I'm just I've learned

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<v Speaker 1>my lesson over the years to not focus on it.

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<v Speaker 1>As long as I'm looking at the appropriate metrics and

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<v Speaker 1>seeing that there are multiple metrics saying we're still in

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<v Speaker 1>the bullmarket and it hasn't been invalidated, and there are

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<v Speaker 1>macro factors like money supply and global liquidity that's on

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<v Speaker 1>the rise, then my mind is at ease, and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>basing my thesis and my perspective on those facts, not

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<v Speaker 1>my emotions, not what the headlines say. So, guys, that's

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<v Speaker 1>my take on it and my hope once again, because

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<v Speaker 1>bitcoin is hitting that over sould zone that we see

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<v Speaker 1>some sort of balance and relief here. But I'm not

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<v Speaker 1>expecting a surge to new all time eyes unless the

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<v Speaker 1>Fed Jerome Powell come out and say, hey, we're maybe

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<v Speaker 1>doing these cuts. We're cutting by one hundred basis points

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<v Speaker 1>or something. Right, we'll see. I'm just throwing ideas out there,

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<v Speaker 1>but based once again, based on the facts and different

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<v Speaker 1>metrics I showed you guys here. I think we're fine.

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<v Speaker 1>Bull Market still continues, but a lot of volatility similar

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<v Speaker 1>to what we saw in last summer. All right, guys,

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<v Speaker 1>let me know what you think. Leave your thoughts in

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<v Speaker 1>commons below, hit the thumbs up button. Don't forget to

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<v Speaker 1>subscribe to my free email newsletter on substack. Also grab

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<v Speaker 1>a copy of my book Rethinking Crypto and Amazon. Thank

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<v Speaker 1>you guys for watching and listening. I appreciate you all,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'll talk to you all later