WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.440 --> 00:00:03.279 Everybody, Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. I'm 2 00:00:03.279 --> 00:00:06.120 here with Jonathan Hackett, Mick mulroy might be joined by 3 00:00:06.280 --> 00:00:07.080 Andy Milburn. 4 00:00:07.759 --> 00:00:12.279 Fingers crossed per usual, a lot. 5 00:00:12.240 --> 00:00:15.119 Happening, dizzying as ever we left off yet last week, 6 00:00:15.720 --> 00:00:19.320 Vance and Kushner and Wikoff were gonna meet in Switzerland 7 00:00:19.359 --> 00:00:24.480 with the Iranian delegation to supposedly hammer out what comes 8 00:00:24.519 --> 00:00:29.440 next during the sixty day ceasefire. Obviously that's not exactly happening. 9 00:00:29.960 --> 00:00:33.280 Over the last week, there's been the Iranians hit a 10 00:00:33.280 --> 00:00:36.359 couple of commercial ships with some drones. We knocked down 11 00:00:36.399 --> 00:00:39.840 a drone out of the sky, and then we and 12 00:00:39.880 --> 00:00:45.520 then we hit areas in southern Iran. Iran then shot 13 00:00:46.000 --> 00:00:48.119 might I might begin the timeline wrong, but like Iran 14 00:00:48.200 --> 00:00:52.079 shot drones and ballistic missiles like Kuwait and Bahrain. So 15 00:00:52.119 --> 00:00:54.840 it very much doesn't seem like there's a ceasefire anymore. 16 00:00:55.560 --> 00:00:59.359 Israel and Lebanon made a deal. I don't know if 17 00:00:59.359 --> 00:01:01.960 hesbaal A is a exactly game for this deal doesn't 18 00:01:01.960 --> 00:01:05.719 sound like it. So there's a lot to be, a 19 00:01:05.719 --> 00:01:07.439 lot to be said. I mean, where are you guys 20 00:01:07.519 --> 00:01:10.120 track and what are you guys looking at a hacket, 21 00:01:10.120 --> 00:01:11.200 you can go first. 22 00:01:12.280 --> 00:01:15.000 Well, it seems that the strikes back and forth between 23 00:01:15.000 --> 00:01:17.000 Iran and the United States are different than they were 24 00:01:17.040 --> 00:01:18.719 obviously during the war, which was you know, kind of 25 00:01:18.719 --> 00:01:21.400 an unrestrained military operation at that time, and now it's 26 00:01:21.439 --> 00:01:24.359 more tit for tat, which is actually very similar to 27 00:01:24.439 --> 00:01:26.560 what it looked like back in twenty nineteen, twenty twenty 28 00:01:26.599 --> 00:01:29.239 around the custom Solo money strike. If people remember that 29 00:01:29.239 --> 00:01:31.640 time period, there's a lot of escalation in November and 30 00:01:31.680 --> 00:01:35.879 December leading up to that back and forth, increasing each time, 31 00:01:36.280 --> 00:01:38.040 and we kind of see something very similar right now, 32 00:01:38.040 --> 00:01:40.439 which is a little bit more choreographed in my opinion, 33 00:01:40.560 --> 00:01:43.680 or at least telegraphed. These are not intended to cause 34 00:01:43.719 --> 00:01:46.799 wide scale damage or destruction to either side. Instead, they're 35 00:01:46.840 --> 00:01:50.560 a messaging opportunity for each side to demonstrate to the 36 00:01:50.599 --> 00:01:52.920 other that there is resolve. And this is a key 37 00:01:52.920 --> 00:01:55.799 component of deterrence, you know. Deterrence requires that the other 38 00:01:55.840 --> 00:01:58.840 side believes that the threat is credible and the threat 39 00:01:58.879 --> 00:02:01.200 needs to be public believe to know the threat exists, 40 00:02:01.840 --> 00:02:03.640 and so we kind of see that playing out right now. 41 00:02:03.920 --> 00:02:08.960 That's why these strikes are so small precise, specific on 42 00:02:09.599 --> 00:02:13.240 very narrow targets, and not continuing after each one occurs. 43 00:02:13.639 --> 00:02:15.360 So I think that's how the best way to probably 44 00:02:15.360 --> 00:02:19.400 read that is a military extension or an operational extension 45 00:02:19.520 --> 00:02:22.840 of the discussions going on in Switzerland to demonstrate both 46 00:02:22.840 --> 00:02:25.919 sides to each other that they're serious in both directions, 47 00:02:25.919 --> 00:02:29.039 serious about negotiating, but also serious about what happens if 48 00:02:29.159 --> 00:02:31.719 negotiations fall apart, and they have to both feel that 49 00:02:31.759 --> 00:02:34.080 they can keep up the reality that that's true on 50 00:02:34.159 --> 00:02:34.800 both sides. 51 00:02:34.879 --> 00:02:40.199 Make you there, Yeah, go ahead, go ahead, yeah yeah. 52 00:02:40.240 --> 00:02:46.759 So I'll start with some positive So obviously there was 53 00:02:46.800 --> 00:02:53.000 a signing of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. 54 00:02:53.719 --> 00:02:57.680 I'd agree that Hesba is the problem here, but it 55 00:02:58.719 --> 00:03:04.000 on the positive front, it does specify the need to 56 00:03:04.039 --> 00:03:08.840 disarm Hezbola and get Hezbola above the Tawny River, which 57 00:03:08.879 --> 00:03:12.800 is required by UN resolution anyway, And I think it 58 00:03:12.840 --> 00:03:16.400 does recognize that the key factor in this is also 59 00:03:16.479 --> 00:03:22.039 already in proxy. Right, So although Iran is demanding the 60 00:03:22.080 --> 00:03:26.080 stabilization of the Middle East, Iran is also the biggest 61 00:03:26.080 --> 00:03:29.919 destabilizing factor in the Middle East. It's kind of like, 62 00:03:30.360 --> 00:03:33.280 you know, starting the fire and then demanding it be 63 00:03:33.360 --> 00:03:36.479 put out, and then somehow taking credit for at least 64 00:03:36.520 --> 00:03:39.400 the parts of the fire that put out. But on 65 00:03:39.439 --> 00:03:41.919 the positive side, I think that was a good thing, 66 00:03:41.960 --> 00:03:45.599 and that's off the Secretary of Rubio for getting it 67 00:03:45.639 --> 00:03:50.280 to where it is. The other positive I would say 68 00:03:50.400 --> 00:03:53.879 is there does seem to be an attempt now led 69 00:03:53.919 --> 00:03:58.120 by Sadcom to create an alternative path through the Strait 70 00:03:58.120 --> 00:04:02.520 of Hormuse. It's obviously closer to go on that said, 71 00:04:02.879 --> 00:04:08.400 so that they can mitigate against this unwillingness by Iron 72 00:04:08.800 --> 00:04:11.319 to give up control of the strait, which they clearly 73 00:04:11.360 --> 00:04:17.759 are not clearly and have no intention. However, I'm told 74 00:04:17.759 --> 00:04:21.279 by people who I am both served in the US 75 00:04:21.399 --> 00:04:25.360 Navy and are familiar with transitting there and in a 76 00:04:25.399 --> 00:04:30.639 commercial capacity that it would only be available to use 77 00:04:30.720 --> 00:04:34.000 for outflow. Don't know why that's the case. If there's 78 00:04:34.040 --> 00:04:36.839 somebody that knows. I had to jump off the call 79 00:04:36.879 --> 00:04:38.600 with them, so I didn't get the details of why 80 00:04:38.600 --> 00:04:41.759 that's the case. But he said that that path out 81 00:04:42.120 --> 00:04:46.079 is could get the five hundred plus ships that are stuck, 82 00:04:46.639 --> 00:04:50.759 but it can't be used I think in mass for inflow. 83 00:04:51.680 --> 00:04:54.839 If that's the case, it'd be interesting to hear exactly 84 00:04:54.879 --> 00:04:56.519 why maybe I'll give my friend a lot to this 85 00:04:57.480 --> 00:05:00.720 I get. But anyway, so that's somewhat positive. Negative is 86 00:05:01.120 --> 00:05:04.079 it looks like to me that Aron has no interest 87 00:05:04.439 --> 00:05:08.160 in even doing any part of the MoU except for 88 00:05:08.240 --> 00:05:11.879 take money. So I don't know how much we've given 89 00:05:11.920 --> 00:05:16.399 away already, but my advocacy would be stop, don't give 90 00:05:16.439 --> 00:05:19.079 them any more money, don't allow them make any more money, 91 00:05:19.639 --> 00:05:23.319 don't give them any more on frozen access, and stop 92 00:05:23.360 --> 00:05:27.279 talking about three hundred billion, which seems I don't even 93 00:05:27.279 --> 00:05:31.800 know why that was ever the case. They need to 94 00:05:31.839 --> 00:05:38.959 preserve that capacity, that carot if you will, for an ironclad, verifiable, 95 00:05:39.600 --> 00:05:46.360 more restrictive JCPOA period, because if we give all this upfront, 96 00:05:46.480 --> 00:05:50.040 it's just basic negotiations, right, they're going to have little 97 00:05:50.040 --> 00:05:53.560 to no incentive to enter another agreement. And everything they're 98 00:05:53.639 --> 00:05:56.120 saying says they're not going to enter an agreement that's 99 00:05:56.160 --> 00:05:59.439 more restrictive than the JCPOA they're saying, I mean, Poseskan 100 00:05:59.560 --> 00:06:02.439 came out said we are never going to give. 101 00:06:02.360 --> 00:06:03.000 Up in Richmond. 102 00:06:03.279 --> 00:06:05.040 Well, I'm not going to give up in Richmond. You're 103 00:06:05.040 --> 00:06:07.959 not going to get a more restrictive JCPOI, because it 104 00:06:08.079 --> 00:06:11.720 was already pretty restricted, you know, in there. So I 105 00:06:11.720 --> 00:06:15.040 would say stop any money going to them, potentially get 106 00:06:15.040 --> 00:06:18.000 ready because we still have the assets in place to blockade. 107 00:06:18.399 --> 00:06:22.639 Because they have not done anything anything that they were 108 00:06:22.639 --> 00:06:25.040 supposed to do under this agreement, which was very little 109 00:06:26.079 --> 00:06:29.600 open the straight same statuses for the war, they have 110 00:06:29.680 --> 00:06:34.680 not done. So I think we're in solid footing to say, well, well, 111 00:06:34.959 --> 00:06:37.920 then you're not getting into the benefits and until we 112 00:06:37.959 --> 00:06:42.160 get through this nuclear discussions and we find out whether 113 00:06:42.199 --> 00:06:47.600 you're legitimately genuinely negotiating or you're just stalling to the 114 00:06:47.639 --> 00:06:50.079 end of this administration, which I think many people think 115 00:06:50.120 --> 00:06:54.240 they're doing. You're not getting any financial incentive. In fact, 116 00:06:54.279 --> 00:06:56.879 we're going to reimpose sanctions. We're going to put more sanctions, 117 00:06:57.759 --> 00:07:00.000 and then I'm in with this, and i'd be true 118 00:07:00.199 --> 00:07:02.639 to hear both your comments on this. There is a 119 00:07:02.680 --> 00:07:07.040 lot more discussions when I am talking, particularly on foreign media, 120 00:07:07.279 --> 00:07:10.319 of other countries being willing to join a coalition to 121 00:07:10.360 --> 00:07:14.160 open force open the strait. I don't know if they 122 00:07:14.199 --> 00:07:17.519 necessarily in the European countries specifically, I don't know if 123 00:07:17.519 --> 00:07:21.720 they necessarily mean use ground forces, but willing to contribute 124 00:07:21.959 --> 00:07:28.040 mind clearing, you know capabilities. Many countries like Germany for example, 125 00:07:28.120 --> 00:07:32.600 have that capability. There's two standing groups in NATO for example, 126 00:07:32.800 --> 00:07:35.600 but there's more of a willingness to go. Okay, didn't 127 00:07:35.600 --> 00:07:38.480 agree with the war, wasn't asked about the war. But 128 00:07:38.560 --> 00:07:42.720 the Strait is international and it affects my people as 129 00:07:42.759 --> 00:07:46.439 much as it affects the Americans. I have to do something. 130 00:07:46.600 --> 00:07:48.720 I'm speaking as if I was a leader of one 131 00:07:48.720 --> 00:07:51.560 of these countries. So I think there is I think 132 00:07:51.600 --> 00:07:56.720 there's a growing potential that other countries could become involved 133 00:07:56.759 --> 00:07:59.519 because of the Strait. We'll have to see what that means. 134 00:08:02.240 --> 00:08:04.519 Yeah, I think Japan is actually a key you know, 135 00:08:04.600 --> 00:08:08.040 non European partner in this because they have mind clearing capabilities, 136 00:08:08.079 --> 00:08:10.240 and they also have operational experience not only in the 137 00:08:10.279 --> 00:08:13.360 Straight Area but in the Red Sea, so from south 138 00:08:13.399 --> 00:08:15.920 to north, all along the eastern part of the Arabian Peninsula. 139 00:08:16.240 --> 00:08:20.680 Their ships have sailed recently on counter piracy missions in 140 00:08:20.720 --> 00:08:24.319 an integrated capacity with the not only the UK Maritime Organization, 141 00:08:24.360 --> 00:08:27.360 but also the Combined Maritime Task Force, which is dozens 142 00:08:27.399 --> 00:08:30.519 and dozens of countries working together. So I think Japan 143 00:08:30.519 --> 00:08:33.279 would definitely be a key part of that, especially because 144 00:08:33.600 --> 00:08:36.559 Japan is suffering from this conflict just like everyone else obviously, 145 00:08:36.799 --> 00:08:39.600 but in particular because of the energy squeeze on Japan, 146 00:08:39.960 --> 00:08:42.279 on their economy, So there is an incentive for them 147 00:08:42.320 --> 00:08:45.000 to want to participate, not just you know, morally, but 148 00:08:45.279 --> 00:08:49.039 economically as well. For the Japanese industrial capacity that's an 149 00:08:49.039 --> 00:08:51.799 acute problem for them. But also going back to the 150 00:08:52.080 --> 00:08:55.399 agreement that you're talking about, Mick, there's a fundamental flaw 151 00:08:55.480 --> 00:08:59.320 in this agreement. No matter how brilliant this agreement comes, 152 00:08:59.360 --> 00:09:01.399 even if let's say the ideal situation happens and it 153 00:09:01.480 --> 00:09:05.399 suddenly flops, it flip flops over into this overwhelmingly positive 154 00:09:05.399 --> 00:09:07.759 thing for the United States and overwhelmingly negative for Iran. 155 00:09:08.480 --> 00:09:12.480 It's an executive agreement, not a treaty, and that means, 156 00:09:12.600 --> 00:09:15.320 just like the JCPOA, the next president could come in, 157 00:09:15.639 --> 00:09:18.840 crumple it up and throw it away, and you have 158 00:09:18.919 --> 00:09:20.600 to put yourself in the mind of the other side 159 00:09:20.600 --> 00:09:24.480 of the table. They know that, so they're worried about 160 00:09:24.639 --> 00:09:26.879 you know, even if this deal turns out and they 161 00:09:26.919 --> 00:09:29.240 get the three hundred billion, everything's great for Iran. That 162 00:09:29.279 --> 00:09:31.200 could all go away and get pulled away immediately. So 163 00:09:31.240 --> 00:09:33.679 if you're thinking like that pragmatically, you'd have to be 164 00:09:33.720 --> 00:09:36.799 setting up some kind of background structures to protect yourself 165 00:09:37.039 --> 00:09:40.759 in the case that your negotiating counterpart pulls the rug 166 00:09:40.799 --> 00:09:43.360 out from under you. And that goes exactly to what 167 00:09:43.360 --> 00:09:47.120 Possession's talking about with the enrichment. It would be unwise 168 00:09:47.200 --> 00:09:50.080 for them to stop enrichment even with this agreement, But 169 00:09:50.120 --> 00:09:53.360 it'd be even more unwise knowing that the agreement itself 170 00:09:53.519 --> 00:09:57.120 is on flimsy ground and will likely be changed in 171 00:09:57.159 --> 00:09:59.159 the next presidency. Even if a Republican comes in, it 172 00:09:59.159 --> 00:10:02.080 will still likely be changed because the current agreement is 173 00:10:02.120 --> 00:10:04.840 not popular with some of the Republican party. So it's 174 00:10:04.840 --> 00:10:05.519 possible that. 175 00:10:05.480 --> 00:10:08.639 No matter who the Secretary of Rubio right exactly doesn't 176 00:10:08.639 --> 00:10:11.519 look yeah, so no matter who comes in is yeah exactly. 177 00:10:11.519 --> 00:10:13.000 No matter who comes in, it's going to get shaken 178 00:10:13.080 --> 00:10:15.240 up and changed in a negative way, probably to Iran 179 00:10:15.320 --> 00:10:16.960 and so in they're thinking about that. They're saying, what 180 00:10:17.000 --> 00:10:19.440 structures can we set up behind the scenes so that 181 00:10:19.559 --> 00:10:23.080 if and when this does happen, we're ready to survive again, 182 00:10:23.240 --> 00:10:26.000 to continue surviving. They're not stupid. We've seen this. They've 183 00:10:26.039 --> 00:10:30.720 demonstrated forethought, significant forethought over decades. Again we mentioned this 184 00:10:30.799 --> 00:10:32.960 last episode. Some of the guys sitting at that table, 185 00:10:33.039 --> 00:10:36.279 like Aragchi themselves, have sat at the table with Americans 186 00:10:36.320 --> 00:10:38.720 in the last twenty years every single time. So these 187 00:10:38.759 --> 00:10:41.600 are experienced negotiators. They've felt what it feels like when 188 00:10:41.600 --> 00:10:45.360 the US decides to renag on a major agreement. They 189 00:10:45.440 --> 00:10:48.399 won't allow themselves to be left out in the cold ever, 190 00:10:48.879 --> 00:10:50.480 and I don't think they ever have. They've always been 191 00:10:50.480 --> 00:10:52.879 preparing to be betrayed by the by the other side. 192 00:10:52.960 --> 00:10:54.840 I mean, it's in their ideology that you can't trust 193 00:10:54.879 --> 00:10:56.600 the West, you can't trust Israel and all this like 194 00:10:56.600 --> 00:10:59.320 that's built into their ideology. So even if the agreement 195 00:10:59.399 --> 00:11:02.039 was pure, and they still wouldn't believe it. So you 196 00:11:02.159 --> 00:11:04.440 have to expect that they're setting things up in the background, 197 00:11:04.440 --> 00:11:08.600 and we, as pragmatic thinkers in the US government, especially 198 00:11:08.600 --> 00:11:10.240 on the intel side, have to be thinking about what 199 00:11:10.279 --> 00:11:15.240 things are just in case this agreement doesn't happen. And 200 00:11:15.279 --> 00:11:18.679 a lot of those things look like surrogate forces, special 201 00:11:18.679 --> 00:11:22.159 ways of using the economy to continue having access to cash, 202 00:11:22.200 --> 00:11:24.440 the ability to keep the shadow Fleet going because right 203 00:11:24.440 --> 00:11:27.320 now we've removed a lot of the restrictions on their 204 00:11:27.360 --> 00:11:29.279 ability to ship oil, So we're allowing them to make 205 00:11:29.320 --> 00:11:30.960 money off of the oil that we have said was 206 00:11:30.960 --> 00:11:32.480 the terrible thing for them to do, and we're letting 207 00:11:32.480 --> 00:11:34.320 them do that now. Well, they're not going to just 208 00:11:34.360 --> 00:11:36.440 stop using their shadow fleet. They're going to continue using 209 00:11:36.480 --> 00:11:39.879 the shadow Fleet and use regular commercial fleets. It would 210 00:11:39.919 --> 00:11:41.639 not make sense for them to suddenly just pull the 211 00:11:41.639 --> 00:11:45.679 plug on this elaborate system of clandestine shipping and receiving 212 00:11:45.720 --> 00:11:49.919 and financial assets that they've spent blood on and treasure on. 213 00:11:50.159 --> 00:11:52.279 They're not giving that up, and it would be very 214 00:11:52.360 --> 00:11:54.600 naive of us on the side of the negotiating table 215 00:11:54.679 --> 00:11:57.240 to think that that's true. And so there has to 216 00:11:57.240 --> 00:11:59.480 be something on the west side, not just the United States, 217 00:11:59.480 --> 00:12:02.200 but also European partners and as you mentioned, any you know, 218 00:12:02.240 --> 00:12:05.519 international partners like Japan or South Korea coming together to 219 00:12:05.639 --> 00:12:08.399 ensure that even if this agreement gets crumpled up, there 220 00:12:08.399 --> 00:12:10.919 are structures on our side in place. They're going to 221 00:12:11.200 --> 00:12:15.159 help preserve our position there too, because that energy value 222 00:12:15.200 --> 00:12:18.279 is not going away anytime soon, even if we completely 223 00:12:18.360 --> 00:12:21.759 change to electric vehicles. You still require petroleum to make plastics. 224 00:12:22.200 --> 00:12:24.480 A lot of the crude oil that China was using 225 00:12:24.879 --> 00:12:28.320 was not for energy, it was for producing plastics like 226 00:12:28.399 --> 00:12:31.440 things you buy on Amazon. That's what that crew oil 227 00:12:31.519 --> 00:12:34.080 is for. And until we find a solution to replace that, 228 00:12:34.519 --> 00:12:37.080 we're kind of still dependent on that Straight until we 229 00:12:37.159 --> 00:12:37.879 change otherwise. 230 00:12:38.919 --> 00:12:41.759 So on that point, Jonathan, I think there is a 231 00:12:41.799 --> 00:12:45.679 provision in the MoU I recall where the agreement would 232 00:12:45.720 --> 00:12:53.360 be also validated with the UN Security accounts. So I 233 00:12:53.399 --> 00:12:56.679 think they are concerned about the very issue that you 234 00:12:56.759 --> 00:13:00.759 brought up, which is obviously the case because we tore 235 00:13:00.799 --> 00:13:04.480 it up in twenty eighteen or threw it away the 236 00:13:04.559 --> 00:13:06.519 other thing. And I don't know if this would work, 237 00:13:06.559 --> 00:13:10.120 but if what if the UN passed a resolution specifically 238 00:13:10.120 --> 00:13:14.639 calling for a coalition to open the Straight, and they 239 00:13:15.080 --> 00:13:21.399 countries did contribute to a maritime coalition that simply went 240 00:13:21.960 --> 00:13:25.200 went through the strait, collected all the five hundred plus 241 00:13:25.200 --> 00:13:29.440 ships and left. I mean, would Iran obviously risky. And 242 00:13:30.120 --> 00:13:33.159 I don't know that if this is just simply a hypothetical, 243 00:13:33.200 --> 00:13:34.799 because I don't know that any countries would do it, 244 00:13:34.879 --> 00:13:37.840 but say they wouldn't they're not attacking Iran, They're simply 245 00:13:37.879 --> 00:13:40.879 going through an international waterway to ensure it's open so 246 00:13:40.919 --> 00:13:42.559 they can get their oil that's going to go to 247 00:13:42.600 --> 00:13:47.559 their country. Right, Would Iran attack where they you know, 248 00:13:47.600 --> 00:13:49.440 it's coming down, it's coming down the Red Sea, it's 249 00:13:49.440 --> 00:13:50.840 coming down, it's going into the Gulf of them on, 250 00:13:50.919 --> 00:13:53.919 it's going getting closer to the straight Would Iran attack 251 00:13:54.600 --> 00:13:59.399 a blue flagged international coalition of countries who aren't part 252 00:13:59.440 --> 00:14:03.039 of the war that are simply going into the Persian 253 00:14:03.080 --> 00:14:06.240 Gulf to collect and escort these ships out, and then 254 00:14:06.480 --> 00:14:08.279 they just keep doing it, they keep bringing ships in 255 00:14:08.320 --> 00:14:12.960 and out. Would Arom be willing to then turn its 256 00:14:13.480 --> 00:14:17.679 military efforts against an international collige. 257 00:14:18.679 --> 00:14:20.600 I think the only way that would be successful is 258 00:14:20.600 --> 00:14:24.519 if Pakistan was a key member of that fleet. And 259 00:14:24.799 --> 00:14:27.639 another point is that the UN has only done I 260 00:14:27.679 --> 00:14:31.840 believe thirteen missions like this, like UNISAM and Somalia, Manusma 261 00:14:31.840 --> 00:14:36.320 and Mali for example, and the Operation unifil On in 262 00:14:36.440 --> 00:14:40.879 northeast Israel, Lebanon, Syria region and und Off another force 263 00:14:40.919 --> 00:14:42.720 as well. I believe there have been only thirteen since 264 00:14:42.759 --> 00:14:45.240 nineteen forty six, So it takes a lot of political 265 00:14:45.320 --> 00:14:48.320 will first of all, to even have it structured and 266 00:14:48.360 --> 00:14:50.600 then for it to function, that's a whole separate issue. 267 00:14:51.000 --> 00:14:53.200 In Mali in particular, which was the most recent one 268 00:14:53.200 --> 00:14:56.960 that I participated in, it was a very challenging, to 269 00:14:57.000 --> 00:14:59.799 say the least, operation to hold these forces together to 270 00:15:00.240 --> 00:15:03.279 do something toward a shared outcome, because they kind of 271 00:15:03.279 --> 00:15:06.320 don't put their individual state interests aside when they go 272 00:15:06.360 --> 00:15:09.399 in there. So i'd i'd be interested to analyze that more. 273 00:15:09.440 --> 00:15:11.960 But as I mentioned, with Pakistan, that's important because right 274 00:15:11.960 --> 00:15:14.519 now Pakistan is really the only actor that has a 275 00:15:14.600 --> 00:15:18.440 navy that can contribute, because Katar doesn't really, Bahrain doesn't 276 00:15:18.440 --> 00:15:22.360 really Bahrain wouldn't pticipate anyway Katar might. But Pakistan needs 277 00:15:22.399 --> 00:15:26.759 to contribute fleet forces and also put the impromatur of 278 00:15:26.919 --> 00:15:29.759 an actual international force rather than a US backed force. 279 00:15:29.879 --> 00:15:33.399 This is very important here, So that would need to occur. 280 00:15:34.039 --> 00:15:37.399 But going again to the fundamental weakness of even this. 281 00:15:37.519 --> 00:15:39.720 If this is a good idea, but look at UNSCR 282 00:15:39.799 --> 00:15:41.639 seventeen oh one, which is the two thousand and six 283 00:15:42.240 --> 00:15:45.200 ceasefire between Hesbola and Israel that was supposed to see 284 00:15:45.200 --> 00:15:48.000 the withdrawal of Hesbola from the south. The Lebanese armed 285 00:15:48.000 --> 00:15:50.960 forces were supposed to come in and replace them. Both 286 00:15:51.080 --> 00:15:55.200 Israel and and Hesbola have violated different components of seventeen 287 00:15:55.240 --> 00:15:56.919 oh one, and right now they're firing at each other. 288 00:15:56.919 --> 00:16:00.320 I mean, this is what twenty years later, and that 289 00:16:00.720 --> 00:16:03.519 UNSCR seventeen oh one is only a page long. It's 290 00:16:03.559 --> 00:16:06.799 not complicated. So even if the UN did come together, 291 00:16:06.840 --> 00:16:09.320 the Security Council did come together, that would be a 292 00:16:09.320 --> 00:16:11.480 good show of unity, which also is something that we 293 00:16:11.519 --> 00:16:14.639 do need these days. Maybe a UN General Assembly plus 294 00:16:14.679 --> 00:16:17.759 Security Council joint resolution something like this would be helpful 295 00:16:17.799 --> 00:16:20.039 to show unity. 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And if that's 338 00:18:15.319 --> 00:18:18.720 even if the resolution itself set a message and then 339 00:18:18.759 --> 00:18:20.680 there was an armada that went down there, I'd just 340 00:18:20.720 --> 00:18:24.359 be interesting to see. Because they're already shooting at commercial ships, right, 341 00:18:24.400 --> 00:18:26.279 so it can't get much worse than that. They're shooting 342 00:18:26.279 --> 00:18:31.359 at unarmed civilians and somebody's gonna get I mean, we're 343 00:18:31.359 --> 00:18:33.359 gonna have a mass cashally event here pretty soon. 344 00:18:34.039 --> 00:18:36.519 And these civilians are just these are mariners. These are 345 00:18:36.559 --> 00:18:41.000 guys from the Philippines, you know, from to say shells. Yeah, 346 00:18:41.039 --> 00:18:44.160 they're in a tough spot anyway, and they're stuck on 347 00:18:44.160 --> 00:18:45.839 this giant vessel. If any of the listeners have ever 348 00:18:45.880 --> 00:18:48.359 been on one of these huge container ships, it's very lonely. 349 00:18:48.480 --> 00:18:52.599 There's like thirteen people on this giant, giant object at sea. 350 00:18:53.039 --> 00:18:56.240 It's it's terrible. And imagine also living under the threat 351 00:18:56.240 --> 00:18:58.359 that you might get bombed any day just for being 352 00:18:58.359 --> 00:18:59.799 in the water and you have nothing to do with it. 353 00:18:59.799 --> 00:19:02.160 You know, it's got to be tough for them. 354 00:19:02.319 --> 00:19:05.400 John, let me ask you. We've seen like oil prices 355 00:19:05.440 --> 00:19:08.240 go down, so somewhere around seventy seventy five bucks. Is 356 00:19:08.240 --> 00:19:12.720 that sowing up in like Japan, South Korea, like where 357 00:19:12.720 --> 00:19:14.799 they're really affected, because I remember we were talking about 358 00:19:14.799 --> 00:19:17.440 it there price per oil back when this was really 359 00:19:17.480 --> 00:19:20.160 going hot, was you know, one hundred and sixty bucks 360 00:19:20.160 --> 00:19:22.759 a barrel or something like that. Are they seeing relief 361 00:19:22.759 --> 00:19:25.680 in terms of prices or is that just like the 362 00:19:25.720 --> 00:19:30.440 market being the market and not really you know, showing 363 00:19:30.480 --> 00:19:33.839 like what the reality is and like on the ground. 364 00:19:34.319 --> 00:19:36.440 Well, you have to remember that oil is a commodity, 365 00:19:36.480 --> 00:19:40.079 so it's sold down futures, not on current value. So 366 00:19:40.119 --> 00:19:43.880 what you're seeing is the future assumptions about the market 367 00:19:43.960 --> 00:19:46.640 that these people purchasing these futures are making so they 368 00:19:46.680 --> 00:19:48.839 think that for example, in sixty days or a year, 369 00:19:48.880 --> 00:19:51.200 and it's actually the one year Brent crude benchmark you 370 00:19:51.240 --> 00:19:52.960 should look at, like what what do people think will 371 00:19:52.960 --> 00:19:55.960 be going on one year from now? And it's slightly higher, 372 00:19:56.000 --> 00:19:58.960 I think than current futures of like normal oil futures 373 00:19:58.960 --> 00:20:01.839 that everyone's looking at, which means people are not pricing 374 00:20:01.880 --> 00:20:04.279 their risk out as much as we might feel like 375 00:20:04.319 --> 00:20:07.640 they are. The other thing is that as summer goes through, 376 00:20:07.759 --> 00:20:11.000 oil prices will decrease just because the blends for summer 377 00:20:11.160 --> 00:20:13.799 crew change and we're kind of coming up on that period. 378 00:20:14.119 --> 00:20:17.039 Another very important economic component to match up to these 379 00:20:17.119 --> 00:20:21.359 futures pricing is we're about to end a quarter fiscal quarter, 380 00:20:21.880 --> 00:20:23.880 we're about to enter the summertime, and we're about to 381 00:20:23.880 --> 00:20:26.240 see some huge earnings on tech get released and there 382 00:20:26.279 --> 00:20:28.920 was just massive sell offs on tech the past month 383 00:20:28.920 --> 00:20:31.720 and a half that look like kind of a downward 384 00:20:31.839 --> 00:20:33.920 trend there. Those things are all going to conspire together 385 00:20:34.039 --> 00:20:38.640 because these things are all backed by energy requirements. So 386 00:20:38.839 --> 00:20:43.240 if risk comes up anywhere, that energy area, the tech, 387 00:20:43.400 --> 00:20:47.000 the chips, the AI area, which is massive component of 388 00:20:47.000 --> 00:20:49.200 the market right now, is going to react in a 389 00:20:49.200 --> 00:20:52.519 way that's higher than should be. In other words, they're 390 00:20:52.559 --> 00:20:55.720 more risk sensitive currently because there are more difficult to 391 00:20:55.759 --> 00:20:58.359 measure factors that are affecting these prices. And I think 392 00:20:58.400 --> 00:21:00.319 there's a lot of hope right now with p They 393 00:21:00.400 --> 00:21:02.039 think that we might be on the way to something. 394 00:21:02.039 --> 00:21:03.720 But remember only in the first week and a half 395 00:21:03.759 --> 00:21:06.720 of a sixty day negotiating window, and as we get 396 00:21:06.759 --> 00:21:09.039 closer to that midpoint and toward the end point, especially 397 00:21:09.079 --> 00:21:11.720 toward August, people will begin to notice more of a 398 00:21:11.759 --> 00:21:14.640 reality in front of them rather than a dream. So 399 00:21:14.759 --> 00:21:17.400 if the negotiations don't appear to be improving, well, I 400 00:21:17.400 --> 00:21:20.119 think you'll see oil futures go back up again, obviously 401 00:21:20.279 --> 00:21:23.599