Speaker 1: What's going on?
Speaker 2: Everybody? Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks. If you
are new, we always start this show by being transparent.
And yesterday I did not have a good day in WNBA.
Speaker 1: For sure.
Speaker 2: The Dream ended up losing by seventeen, and that was
my only WNBA play. I did play some tennis, but
I'm gonna be honest with you guys. The one match
I know I had early it was able to finish,
but the rest it was like rain delay all day.
And I'm the kind of person who I really enjoy
watching tennis. I don't want to just wake up and
see the scorer. So I'm gonna go back and rewatch
the matches and not ruin it for myself and I
do a little extra recap on my tennis tomorrow. How
about that? So not good in WNBA yesterday, Robno, I
don't know. I have a feeling you kind of the
same way, because you were liking that over right.
Speaker 3: I did, and I played it again. It was light
because I wasn't in love with anything, but it was
not even close. Ski I got it. Say Indiana brought
defense that went for forty minutes. Give the credit. They
want to stay alive in the playoffs, and boy, they
played like it on the defensive end because Atlanta was
frustrated for sure with referee calls, with how tight Indiana
was guarding them, et cetera, et cetera. So now it's
going to go the distance, go back to Atlanta. But
I did play over one and a half in that game,
and like I say, it just never came close.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know it just like that. The better teams
out of the two teams.
Speaker 2: Out of the two games yesterday lost in my opinion,
but it just boiled down to, you know, back against
the wall.
Speaker 1: You know, win or go home, you're gonna get the
max effort.
Speaker 2: I mean, even though the Storm were losing pretty much
all game, they didn't quit until the end and they
were able to come out with a W.
Speaker 1: So you can't how do I say, what all will
we learned from yesterday?
Speaker 2: You can't underestimate, you know, the effort level for the team,
you know, who's playing for their playoff life. That's just
what I learned yesterday. Not that I don't already know that,
but just a reminder, you know. So we'll talk about
these games here today. We have two of them to
get through, and number one is going to be six
thirty five, six thirty six, Phoenix and New York opened
up New York minus four and a half.
Speaker 1: We saw, you know, Stewie got a little banged up.
Speaker 2: I think it was an overtime of the last game,
and there was some uncertainty whether she was going to
play or not. The line did come down to about
two and a half, but now you're saying Stewie is
going to give it a go, and the line went
right back up to four and a half. Even a
five and a half popping up at a shop right now.
Speaker 1: Total, not a whole lot of movement.
Speaker 2: I see an opener of one p fifty nine and
a half, and it's left them like that.
Speaker 1: Pretty much across the board. As far as.
Speaker 2: Injury report, I'm refreshing here.
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure I saw on.
Speaker 2: Twitter they said Stuie's gonna give it a go. She's
still listed as questionable, but I think she's gonna be
out there. Whether she'll be effective or how effective she'll be,
how injured she is, you know, that's to be determined
for Phoenix. Nobody on the injury report, Vino. I mean
that last game, Phoenix was right there. They really could
have took that game, probably should have really, but in
overtime this seemed like they didn't have enough, couldn't even
really score an overtime. Now get a little bit of
a banged up Stewie. You are on the road for
the Mercury. But and I'll double check this, this is
just off my memory. I feel like they've played the
Liberty pretty close or pretty good so far this season.
Speaker 1: I think four and a half is a bit too much.
Speaker 2: And also, before I pass it to you, you know,
both teams coming off that overtime game, I know they're tired.
You know, I think there will be less points in
this game as well, So or Mercury are my initial
looks in this game.
Speaker 1: How do you feel about that?
Speaker 2: You know?
Speaker 3: Yeah, A couple things to add to your point about
Phoenix being right there the other day in game one,
I mean, let's face it, Alyssa Thomas has a layup
that she makes generally ninety percent of the time that
wins the game. It never makes overtime, but you know,
it just bounced off and it didn't go her way,
and therefore they went to overtime. But I'll say this,
just to add to the fact that they were right
there with a good opportunity to win the game with
Satu Sobii. I mean, what in God's name was that
Two for seventeen from the field, one for ten from three,
and they still almost want you have to believe, And
I guess you know in reading some of the things
post game, even the coach, Nate Tibbitts alluded to it.
Phoenix is a young basketball team. A lot of times
I think of them as the Big three Thomas and Sobly,
and I just think, well, they have enough veteran leadership,
but they are young, and they're youthful in the context
that Saboly's never been in a playoff game, right with Dallas,
they were never in the playoffs. I think he said
it was her first time out there in the playoffs,
so under those types of lights, maybe that's what happened
to her. But I would expect a big bounce back
from her tonight. You just can't have Satu going two
for seventeen, one for ten. It was home floor that
did help Phoenix. It was a pretty good crowd. It'll
help New York tonight. I find this game difficult ski
for as far as side is concerned for one reason,
because I don't know how long Breonna Stewart will last.
It's going to be we saw last night what these
playoffs are going to be. Bump and grind, bump and grind,
fight for your life. And Phoenix has interior people, including
a list of Thomas that could you know, actually Breonna
Stewart one wrong fall, that knee again, and it's you know,
eight minutes an out or she could play the expected
amount of time. So it's tough to handicap because I'm
of the belief, I've said this bazillion times on the show,
that they're tremendously better defensively when she's on the floor.
I think her assignment was Alissa Thomas the other day,
and Thomas had a good game, but she didn't go
off in all three categories, So that makes it hard.
If I knew Stewart was fully healthy, I might lean
New York's way. But Phoenix has come into this building
and won one time already, and like you said, they
did win the season series, so they're not afraid of
New York by any stretch of the imagination. In fact,
if you ask me, Alissa Thomas looked angry walking into
the tunnel that they blew that game in Phoenix the
other day. So I think I would have to side
with under in this case, which again doesn't come out
of my mouth too often, but just watching and I
think you said something pretty prevalent for these games here
in your opening there that we have to remember that
these games tighten up in the playoffs. If we were
talking about NBA Ski, you and I would be saying, well,
you know, the defense will get tighter. It's it's game.
You know, this is game two of a three game series.
But you know what I'm saying, if it was game
five to seven game, we would be factoring in slower pace,
more defense. I think it's got to be factored in here,
especially after watching Indiana Atlanta last night, so I think
under one fifty nine and a half could be a
way to go. But I have not been the game.
Speaker 2: Well you know what we do here on this show, Robie, know,
we open them up. We stopped the show, We opened
up our wallets on this show. And I mean we've
talked about this all year. Brianna Stewart, you've said that
they're a better defensive team with her on the court, right,
Maybe it's her offense that lacks with the injury, maybe
not much of the defense.
Speaker 1: The overtime, I think.
Speaker 2: It's huge as much as Gus as Phoenix wasn't you know,
and couldn't score. I think that's going to transfer over,
like both teams are going to be tired. I think
that's gonna affect the offense in this game. You're gonna
get defense because it's winner, go home, but the offense
could really suffer in this one. I'm betting under I'm
telling you right now, so bear with me for one second.
Speaker 1: Let me just I don't like to talk about it,
and I bet it. You know what I'm saying.
Speaker 3: I will just make one more point to your point
about the sides being tired here after overtime in this
in the case of this particular series, it is a
long flight back and forth. It's Phoenix to New York.
It's not a Atlanta to Indiana type deal where the
flight is fairly quick, so you're fatigued off overtime, You
get on a plane, you fly all the way back tired.
I could see jump Shot Legs not being there for
a full forty minutes. I mean, these teams are good
enough to score in spurts, but maybe not continuous, which
was what it takes. You're asking both sides to get
to eighty year and as we saw last night, it's
not so easy to get to eighty. No, Las Vegas
and Seattle did it. But there were a lot of
points at the end of that game by Seattle. So
we shall we shall see.
Speaker 2: All right, So I appreciate that, Rob, you know, I
am good to go. One fifty nine and a half
is the best number we can get and confirm it
is confirmed, so everybody can't go on the show and
run and bedded and I get the ass end of
the line.
Speaker 1: All right. Next game we'll go to Links and Valkyrie's.
Speaker 2: I don't know why I was thinking of a different
game was played today, but we just saw it the
others yesterday. So Links and Valkyries opened up minus ten
for Minnesota on the road, and we see ten and
a half pretty much everywhere.
Speaker 1: Total open one fifty two consensus. We'll call it one
fifty one and a half.
Speaker 2: Injury report, Tiffany Hayes will be missing for Golden State
and Griffin who's been missing pretty much all year for
Minnesota out you know, started off that last game Mockery Store.
I mean they always do. They throw a pretty good,
pretty strong first punch. I mean they usually come out
the gate in that first quarter. It's been that way
all season long. We saw it once again from Minnesota side.
It's almost like it was almost like they like they
didn't understand or they forgot what Golden State likes to do,
like just letting them shoot threes.
Speaker 1: I f like.
Speaker 2: After that first quarter, both teams kind of realize, Okay,
we got to take away the three from each other,
and especially Minnesota for on Golden State, the lack of
Tiffany Hayes, that makes me think less offense, we know
how good of a team defensive team Minnesota is. I
think that they they realize what they have to do.
I think they bring that in this game. And on
the flip side, I mean Golden State has been good
all year too. We can make a case for Coach
of the Year over there in Golden State.
Speaker 1: And what we've seen.
Speaker 2: In revenge games, for the Valkyries, they lock up. They've
seen you at a time or two. The next time
they see you, they lock up. And I know they've
seen the Lynks a few times, but just to put
numbers to what I'm saying. The Valkyries and revenge Bots
this season are fourteen and three to the under, and
you have a Lynx team that just scored one hundred points.
Speaker 1: I mean, the.
Speaker 2: Emphasis isn't going to be defense. I don't know what
we're doing here in the playoffs. That first game also
had a hell of a lot of free throws. That's
all coaching Nicasse. Hopefully I say their name right, because
you know, I don't never listen to the people talk
unless it's an interview. But all she was talking about was,
you know how the free throws kind of changed the game,
et cetera, et cetera. Because see less free throws in
this game. I think there's less points. I know it
went up a little bit from the previous game, but
I don't think this one touches one to fifty. And
I personally need the Links to win here, Rovio, I
made a bet for them to win too. Zero doesn't
necessarily mean they're gonna win by eleven.
Speaker 1: Valkyris.
Speaker 2: I mean that's been a sweet spot all year, right
as a dog of like more than seven, especially at home.
They do have a good home court. I couldn't run
to the window and lay with the Links. In this situation,
I think it's Valkyri's or under And I do think.
I mean, we just saw yesterday the efforts you get
from these teams with their back against the wall. I
do think you get that here today. How are you
viewing Links and Valkyries?
Speaker 3: Well, I like the Links and I'm trying to find
a way to bet them. Skip now. You mentioned the
full game price ten and a half, and Golden State's
a pretty good dog this season, in fact, a real
good underdog this season. However, you know they've played Minnesota
five times and lost by eleven or more four of
those times. Minnesota is just beating this team like a drum.
Golden State can't score against Minnesota. The highest point total
they've had in any game against Minnesota is seventy five,
as low as fifty three, but most of them are
pretty much in the same zone. Seventy one, seventy two,
seventy two, seventy five at home. If you get seventy
out of them in order to cover, you need eighty
one out of the Links. I try so hard to
talk myself into this. I said, Okay, let's just shave
it in half. Let's see if I can get Minnesota
first half, because they actually, even though they were ahead
at halftime, they did, like you say, take a first
half punch. Maybe they learned a little lesson and they
come out a little quicker aro on the road. They
are the veteran team. But we remember that Golden State's
an excellent first half team. I think three and zero
straight up as a home dog in first half action
last ten or last ten games or so, and overall
very good. So Minnesota is a bad first half team.
It's always the second half with them. I'll give you
some numbers just where this series is concerned, particularly just
the series. First halfs in this series, Minnesota just won
by seven, they won by twelve, then they lost out
right by five, they only won by five, and they
lost out right by one. Now, the two times they
lost out right in the first half in this series,
we're both here in Golden State. But the second halfs
have been all Minnesota in every single game. So if
you have patience to wait till the second half and
you want to play Minnesota second half, I can't say
no to that. But then again, you're just assuming that
the first half results are going to be what they've
normally been, right, and we don't know that for sure.
I look at Golden State's roster and I just don't
know how ski. I mean, the top four guards on
this Minnesota team McBride, Courtney Williams, Heightaman and Djana was
a huge pickup defensively for this team, those four guards.
Where are Golden State's guards going in this game? I mean, again,
you said it, they love to shoot threes. If they
don't make threes, I just don't know here. I know
Collier's gonna do what she's supposed to do. I know
their front line is bigger than Golden State's front line.
I really think Minnesota, the veteran team, is going to
win this game, and I kind of think they're going
to win by twelve oour or more so. In the end,
I may end up playing Minnesota full game. To the
point about Phoenix being young, there's nobody younger or more
inexperienced at this than the Golden State team home or not.
I know it's like a college atmosphere playing here, but
I just think Minnesota is in there to get the
job done and get it over with it. Maybe they
think who cares if we lose, We're going back home,
will win anyway. But I don't think that's the mindset
of Minnesota and coach Reeve. And to the point about
coach Nikasi moaning about free throws, her team shot more
free throws than Minnesota did in that game. They shot
twenty seven. Minnesota only shot twenty four. So I'm likely
Minnesota haven't bet it yet, but out of both of
these games, that's probably the one. The one bet. By
the end of the day, I'll make Minnesota full game
minus to ten and a half, I bet only. And
I can wait a little bit ski because I see
it going down to ten in some places and maybe
I can catch a ten later on.
Speaker 2: Well before I forget what she was saying, Coach Nikasa,
she she did mention She's like she's talking about the
timing of the free throw. She said, like it was
messing up the rhythm that they had going and pretty
much it just turned the momentum to the links. She
was kept saying, I just want a fair fight. I
just want a fair and fight.
Speaker 1: So that's what she was saying. She wasn't happy with it.
Speaker 2: A couple more things from the chat reminding us that
it's not a true home game, says, this game is
in San Jose, so it's true. We never know how
that could affect. They do have, you know, good home
advantage of Valhalla. We'll see how it is over there
in San Jose. Mark says, check out Minnesota third quarter stats.
I mean, I don't got to look at the stats.
I know what they do after halftime. It's because they're
well coached. They got the best coach in the league,
Sharyl Reef, and they're the best team. So they go
in at halftime. I see it what the other team
through at them. They make adjustments, and they come out
in flex on them. That's what you see every every
time in the third quarter. So you know, I don't
got to look at the stats already. I'm I'm there
with you, Mark, I know what they do in the
third quarter. Good stuff on the game today, Robne do
I feel like we broke them down pretty good two games,
did it in a little bit under twenty minutes. So
we will now move it on over the best bets.
I am not going to put anything up on the
screen here today, Ravino. You and I know why, but
I will pass it to you and ask you if
there's the best bet that you have for the show,
and if there's anything that you would like to promote.
Speaker 3: You know what. Promotion wise, Ski, I will just say it.
If you've gone ahead and purchased the flex Picks packages before,
then you know what they're about. It basically is more
than one handicapper over a set time period, and you
can interchange handicappers. If one day you think there's more
college football involved than you, like a college football guy,
you can go ahead and purchase that handicapper for the day.
If you see it's a WNBA day and you like,
say maybe me or Ski in that situation, or a
good buddy you capper, you can do that too. So
it's very very flexible. I guess that's why they call
it flex Picks. That's the deal going on over there
for this show though. And I hate to do this
at playoff time, but I just don't have anything I
haven't bet yet, So I don't have anything that I'm
so confident in that I would release. Here is the
best bet, Ski, Like I say, the closest I come
to playing right now is the Minnesota full game minus
ten and a half. I even looked a little that
team total, but I'm just afraid of defenses ruling the day.
They're ruling the night here tonight. So I'm gonna pass
on best bets here today. I hate to do it
to you guys because it is playoff time, but just
don't have anything that I feel I can recommend.
Speaker 2: So all good before I give my best bet for
the show, Jeff, we will talk about it tomorrow, says Okay, Ski.
Here's the question. Game three Thursday, does Seattle or Indiana
have any chance to win? I feel like we see
an upset. We'll be right back here again tomorrow to
talk about it. But I will say two things. Number one,
got it. Remember what I said in the beginning of
the show too, just what you saw, and I'll extend
on that.
Speaker 1: It's a little different.
Speaker 2: But what you saw in the last game is not
necessarily what you're going to see in the next game.
Speaker 1: Just always remember that. So can these teams win? They can?
Will they? We'll talk about it tomorrow. My best bet
for the show I'm gonna go with.
Speaker 2: Well, first of all, promo wise, I'm just gonna say
I'm betting in a lot of tennis right now, Like
I said, I didn't recap yesterday because I like to
watch the matches and it was rain de lay literally
all day.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna catch up.
Speaker 2: But prior to that, I believe I hit eleven in
my last seventeen and I'm firing. I'll see how my
plays did yesterday. I think I had five of them,
and we're gonna continue to fire. So if you're looking
for some tennis action throughout the days, every day, I
am going to be, you know, getting heavily involved. As
far as best bet for the show Man, I opened
up my wallet already, Rob you know, y'all know what
I'm betting. I mean, I told you guys are bet already.
I'm rolling with that. We're going one fifty nine and
a half under between Phoenix and New York. Gave you
a lot of reasons why, but I'll add this just
to put some numbers to a little bit of what
I was saying. Looking at playoff games after overtime games,
they're nine and two to the under, so a lot.
Speaker 1: Of fatigue here, you know, win or go home situation.
Speaker 2: I think we see a lot of defense, and I
think the tired legs affects them on the offensive end.
So my best bet for the show will be Phoenix
in New York under one fifty nine and a half.
Speaker 1: Vino.
Speaker 2: Appreciate you taking the time to come catch these games
with me. Helps my process. I'm sure you help everybody
else out there as well, everybody in the chat. It's
great to be back with you guys. I appreciate your input,
your great people in great cappers, and we all you know,
chip in and help.
Speaker 1: Each other win.
Speaker 2: So always gonna let you know you're much appreciated. Everybody
else out there, whether it's Twitch, x kick, what else
we have, YouTube shorts, Spotify, Apple, We appreciate everybody watching. Tomorrow,
we'll talk to two WNBA games. We'll talk a little
Thursday night football. We'll see if maybe we even have
some college football however we can cash, we'll get to it,
maybe even some tennis.
Speaker 1: But we'll catch you guys tomorrow. Best of luck on
all your action tonight.