WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.040 --> 00:00:03.919 There's this funny guy, funny guy that I follow on Twitter. 2 00:00:04.320 --> 00:00:07.519 He goes by the handle Jarvis Best, and he tweets 3 00:00:07.519 --> 00:00:12.039 a lot of funny goofball stuff. He's like a lawyer 4 00:00:12.039 --> 00:00:16.440 from Denver, but he's made himself famous for tweeting about 5 00:00:16.440 --> 00:00:23.960 how thirsty, as the kids say, he is for various 6 00:00:24.039 --> 00:00:29.760 attractive female members of Congress, including Nancy Mace from North Carolina, 7 00:00:30.440 --> 00:00:32.840 or she's from South Carolina, I can't remember. Anyway, I 8 00:00:32.920 --> 00:00:35.759 believe South Carolina. And so he tweets stuff about how 9 00:00:35.799 --> 00:00:38.039 in love he is with Nancy Mace and lots of 10 00:00:38.039 --> 00:00:41.479 other funny jokes. Anyway, he had a tweet that I 11 00:00:41.799 --> 00:00:46.439 retweeted from my account that I think perfectly sums up 12 00:00:46.479 --> 00:00:54.159 my attitude on Iran. He writes, as a complete dumbass centrist. 13 00:00:54.520 --> 00:00:57.880 I am finding myself just automatically agreeing with the last 14 00:00:58.000 --> 00:01:01.880 Iran take. I see the last Iran opinion. I see 15 00:01:02.679 --> 00:01:06.000 someone will post something like we can't let Ron get 16 00:01:06.000 --> 00:01:07.799 a nuke, and I'm like, oh my gosh, you're right, 17 00:01:08.079 --> 00:01:11.079 And then someone else will post we can't get dragged 18 00:01:11.120 --> 00:01:13.159 into another war, and I'm like, well, yeah, that's a 19 00:01:13.159 --> 00:01:17.040 great point. I'm helpless I'm at your mercy, and that's me. 20 00:01:19.680 --> 00:01:23.480 I am worthless as a talk radio host. The point 21 00:01:23.480 --> 00:01:25.760 of having a talk radio host is to loudly get 22 00:01:25.760 --> 00:01:28.760 in front of a microphone and yell your opinion. And 23 00:01:28.879 --> 00:01:33.920 I am completely hopeless. So at the moment, it seems 24 00:01:33.959 --> 00:01:39.120 like here's where we stand as far as could the 25 00:01:39.239 --> 00:01:44.760 US get pulled into this. So up until now it's 26 00:01:44.760 --> 00:01:52.640 been all Israel. Now kind of all Israel, because the 27 00:01:52.680 --> 00:01:55.879 only reason Israel's able to engage in an attack like 28 00:01:55.959 --> 00:01:59.079 this is because of all the military aid that we 29 00:01:59.159 --> 00:02:01.760 have given them over the course of years and years 30 00:02:01.760 --> 00:02:05.879 and years and years and years. So it's not like 31 00:02:05.920 --> 00:02:12.439 we're totally not involved. Obviously we have been involved and Trump, 32 00:02:13.479 --> 00:02:17.199 I don't think Trump gave Israel the green light, but 33 00:02:17.319 --> 00:02:19.800 he didn't give them the red light. And also I 34 00:02:19.840 --> 00:02:22.439 think it might be a little unreasonable to expect that 35 00:02:22.520 --> 00:02:25.159 the United States can just dictate to Israel what it 36 00:02:25.280 --> 00:02:28.560 will and will not do. It seems as though Trump 37 00:02:29.240 --> 00:02:31.879 asked Israel to hold off for sixty days while he 38 00:02:32.000 --> 00:02:36.199 put this Iranian deal on the table. Iran didn't act 39 00:02:36.240 --> 00:02:39.560 on it, Israel started their attack, and now most of 40 00:02:39.560 --> 00:02:43.520 the people that the United States was negotiating with are dead. 41 00:02:45.919 --> 00:02:49.400 So it seems as though Israel is kind of doing 42 00:02:49.479 --> 00:02:52.479 this on their own, not necessarily with a green light 43 00:02:52.479 --> 00:02:54.199 from the United States, not necessarily with the red light 44 00:02:54.240 --> 00:02:59.639 from the United States. There is reporting that the United 45 00:02:59.680 --> 00:03:05.599 States is involved in some of the defensive stuff that 46 00:03:06.680 --> 00:03:13.560 Israel is doing to counter incoming Iranian ballistic missiles, so 47 00:03:13.800 --> 00:03:17.759 US military forces are involved in shooting down According to 48 00:03:17.800 --> 00:03:20.280 the story from the Wall Street Journal, US military forces 49 00:03:20.319 --> 00:03:25.759 are involved in shooting down incoming Iranian ballistic missiles that 50 00:03:25.800 --> 00:03:29.479 have been shot at Israel. Here's from Wall Street Journal. 51 00:03:29.520 --> 00:03:31.919 Iran has fired about two hundred ballistic missiles in four 52 00:03:31.960 --> 00:03:35.439 barrages and more than two hundred drones toward Israeli territory 53 00:03:35.520 --> 00:03:38.240 so far in response to multiple waves of Israeli strikes 54 00:03:38.240 --> 00:03:42.199 in Israeli military official said before the retaliatory strikes even began, 55 00:03:42.400 --> 00:03:44.960 US jet fighters, Navy destroyers, and ground based air defense 56 00:03:45.000 --> 00:03:48.280 systems had positioned to help counter any attack. According to 57 00:03:48.400 --> 00:03:52.840 US officials, US ground based interceptors also helped defend Israel 58 00:03:53.199 --> 00:03:56.159 in the latest barrages. The officials said the US operates 59 00:03:56.199 --> 00:03:59.639 several Patriot anti missile batteries across the region, moving them 60 00:03:59.680 --> 00:04:03.560 around to address perceived aerial threats. They're concentrated in Arab 61 00:04:03.639 --> 00:04:06.719 countries on the Persian Gulf, where the US operates sprawling 62 00:04:06.759 --> 00:04:14.800 military bases, as well as Jordan and Iraq. So we're involved, 63 00:04:14.879 --> 00:04:19.959 but only in defensive operations. We're not involved in offensive operations. However, 64 00:04:22.040 --> 00:04:25.439 it seems that reading some of the more neo Khan 65 00:04:25.720 --> 00:04:31.399 leaning commentators like Jim Garrity writing a National Review, who 66 00:04:31.399 --> 00:04:36.560 I think is Leans, certainly he is solidly a you know, 67 00:04:36.720 --> 00:04:42.319 pro involvement in Ukraine of super pro Israel. I'm not 68 00:04:42.360 --> 00:04:44.759 saying neokon in a pejorative sense. I think I'm just 69 00:04:44.800 --> 00:04:50.480 saying that is the position he has staked them. Basically, 70 00:04:52.120 --> 00:04:55.439 it seems as though the temptation that's on the table 71 00:04:55.519 --> 00:04:59.720 for the United States actually become directly involved with this 72 00:04:59.759 --> 00:05:05.000 war or in Iran is the possibility that we could 73 00:05:05.079 --> 00:05:12.399 actually affect regime change, the tantalizing possibility that maybe the 74 00:05:12.519 --> 00:05:17.759 current Iranian regime under the Ayatola Komani, who is eighty 75 00:05:17.839 --> 00:05:20.480 six years old and all of his senior officers are 76 00:05:20.480 --> 00:05:27.000 now dead, that the whole regime could topple any minute, 77 00:05:27.199 --> 00:05:37.040 and that maybe if the United States intervenes with direct 78 00:05:38.639 --> 00:05:44.879 aerial bombardment something like that, maybe we could topple the 79 00:05:44.879 --> 00:05:52.879 Iranian regime and have something replace it. That is tantalizing. 80 00:05:54.040 --> 00:05:57.480 It is tantalizing, especially to the neo con types. Now 81 00:05:59.199 --> 00:06:02.279 why is it tantali Well, first of all, the existing 82 00:06:02.319 --> 00:06:07.480 Iranian regime is horrible. It is evil. They are terrible, terrible, terrible. 83 00:06:07.839 --> 00:06:14.399 They are the source of Iran is the chief exporter 84 00:06:14.600 --> 00:06:21.120 of Islamic terrorism worldwide. Iran has supported most of the 85 00:06:21.160 --> 00:06:25.879 most disastrous, chaotic bad actors in the Middle East who 86 00:06:25.879 --> 00:06:31.160 have caused the most disruption in the region. They armed, equipped, 87 00:06:31.399 --> 00:06:34.600 funded hamas. Iranians were involved in the planning for the 88 00:06:34.600 --> 00:06:42.399 October seventh, twenty twenty three attack. The Iranians fund the Huthis, 89 00:06:42.680 --> 00:06:50.160 The Iranians fund Hezbolah. So Iran funds its proxies all 90 00:06:50.199 --> 00:06:52.160 throughout the Middle East to engage in all kinds of 91 00:06:52.240 --> 00:06:56.600 terrorist attacks. They are a hugely destabilizing force in the 92 00:06:56.600 --> 00:07:01.839 world and to depending on who you talk to, it 93 00:07:01.959 --> 00:07:05.319 seems that they have been trying to develop a nuclear 94 00:07:05.360 --> 00:07:10.000 weapon for a long time. And that's sort of the 95 00:07:10.120 --> 00:07:16.879 trump card for me at least, is you know, I 96 00:07:16.920 --> 00:07:19.519 absolutely don't want the United States to be involved in 97 00:07:19.560 --> 00:07:25.319 a war in another Middle Eastern country. We have been there, 98 00:07:25.839 --> 00:07:32.000 done that, Iraq, Afghanistan, decades of being there, decades of 99 00:07:32.000 --> 00:07:34.680 being in Afghanistan, and what happens we get driven out 100 00:07:34.680 --> 00:07:39.560 in the Taliban's back in power. What was the point. Yes, 101 00:07:39.600 --> 00:07:42.120 we killed Osama bin Laden, Yes al Qaeda is diminished, 102 00:07:44.920 --> 00:07:48.199 But I don't want another twenty years long war. I 103 00:07:48.240 --> 00:07:50.800 don't want any other war. And especially I mean, this 104 00:07:50.920 --> 00:07:55.399 is more crystallized in my mind having my little brother 105 00:07:56.480 --> 00:07:59.000 who's an officer in the United States Army. My actually 106 00:07:59.079 --> 00:08:02.759 my brother just got promoted. He's now a captain in 107 00:08:02.800 --> 00:08:06.759 the Army, got promoted from lieutenant to captain just this 108 00:08:06.800 --> 00:08:11.439 past weekend. We're very proud of him. So don't I 109 00:08:11.480 --> 00:08:20.199 don't want another war. But Iran is really bad. They 110 00:08:20.199 --> 00:08:25.600 are a terrible, terrible, terrible, evil regime. And Iran also 111 00:08:25.720 --> 00:08:29.959 sort of has a history, like within living memory of 112 00:08:30.079 --> 00:08:39.279 many people of having a relatively western, open modern society 113 00:08:39.480 --> 00:08:43.759 prior to the nineteen seventies under the Shaw. Now the 114 00:08:43.759 --> 00:08:47.440 Shaw himself got toppled, he got regime, he got his 115 00:08:47.639 --> 00:08:50.799 rear end, regime changed. But under the shaw. Iran was 116 00:08:50.840 --> 00:08:54.200 a fairly open and modern society and it's still within 117 00:08:54.240 --> 00:09:05.919 the living memory of many people in Iran. So unlike Afghanistan. Okay, 118 00:09:06.480 --> 00:09:09.559 Afghanistan was a certain we got to Afghanistan in two 119 00:09:09.600 --> 00:09:12.639 thousand and one, we toppled the regime. Afghanistan had had 120 00:09:12.679 --> 00:09:17.000 a certain way of life for way longer than we 121 00:09:17.039 --> 00:09:21.559 had ever been through. The Afghans had preserved that way 122 00:09:21.600 --> 00:09:24.840 of life against the Soviet invasion, beat off the Soviet 123 00:09:24.919 --> 00:09:29.879 invasion invaders. Iran is different. Run's a totally different culture 124 00:09:29.879 --> 00:09:38.279 from Afghanistan. So now I don't purport to know everything 125 00:09:38.320 --> 00:09:40.759 there is to know about Iran, but not by a 126 00:09:40.759 --> 00:09:45.159 long shot. But it's different. And the thought is, well, 127 00:09:46.080 --> 00:09:53.039 maybe the United States takes part in aerial bombardment and 128 00:09:53.120 --> 00:09:55.440 this and that and the other, and maybe we can 129 00:09:55.559 --> 00:10:00.360 topple this regime. Well, so that's the temptation, that's the 130 00:10:00.399 --> 00:10:06.519 tantalizing temptation for especially the neo con types, is what 131 00:10:06.600 --> 00:10:08.440 if we could actually do it? What if we could 132 00:10:08.480 --> 00:10:11.759 actually get rid of the current system in Iran with 133 00:10:11.799 --> 00:10:19.320 the Ayatolas, the theocratic, insane, Sharia based regime, and maybe 134 00:10:19.480 --> 00:10:23.559 replace it with something. Now there are two problems. One 135 00:10:23.639 --> 00:10:31.759 is what comes next. That's one of the big problems 136 00:10:31.759 --> 00:10:33.519 with a lot of countries in the Middle East is 137 00:10:34.000 --> 00:10:39.000 you know, you don't like such and such leader. Okay, well, 138 00:10:39.000 --> 00:10:42.480 what's gonna come next. You know, we don't like Saddam 139 00:10:42.519 --> 00:10:44.960 Hussein Sadamasin's a very bad guy. What comes next? Well, 140 00:10:45.000 --> 00:10:48.919 maybe we get democratically elected sharia' that's what the people 141 00:10:49.000 --> 00:10:53.240 vote for. Okay, you don't like, uh, you know, Israeli 142 00:10:53.279 --> 00:10:56.279 control of Gaza, Well, the Israelis leave, and what happens 143 00:10:56.320 --> 00:11:04.559 the Gazans elect Hamas you know, giving people in these 144 00:11:04.559 --> 00:11:07.039 regions the right to vote, the right to self determination 145 00:11:09.360 --> 00:11:13.879 doesn't always lead to good outcomes because look, there are 146 00:11:13.919 --> 00:11:17.600 a lot of populations there who may want to vote 147 00:11:17.679 --> 00:11:23.480 for something that is incredibly anti Western and incredibly medieval 148 00:11:23.480 --> 00:11:30.320 in its way of thinking. So you know, be careful 149 00:11:30.360 --> 00:11:32.960 what you wish for. I mean, it's hard to envision 150 00:11:33.240 --> 00:11:40.000 anything worse, anything more illiberal, anything more pigheaded, anything more 151 00:11:40.159 --> 00:11:48.840 terror supporting than the Ayatolas. But you could affect regime 152 00:11:48.919 --> 00:11:50.960 change and then just go, you know, out of the 153 00:11:50.960 --> 00:12:01.559 frying pan into the fire. Secondly, to affect state regime 154 00:12:01.679 --> 00:12:05.759 change is not as easy as one, two three. It's 155 00:12:05.759 --> 00:12:09.639 not as easy as snapping your fingers. You know, Syria, 156 00:12:09.879 --> 00:12:11.840 which has been fighting a civil war for years and 157 00:12:11.879 --> 00:12:16.279 years and years. They finally the one side overthrew the 158 00:12:16.320 --> 00:12:22.720 existing regime of Bashar al Asad. Bashar al Assad, who 159 00:12:23.039 --> 00:12:26.679 had been the president kind of dictator of Syria for 160 00:12:26.840 --> 00:12:30.639 the prior you know, twenty four years. He gets overthrown, 161 00:12:30.679 --> 00:12:33.960 and he was a terrible guy. He was bad dude. 162 00:12:34.159 --> 00:12:37.679 He was kind of I think he was kind of 163 00:12:37.720 --> 00:12:43.879 a also an Iranian proxy. Iran would use Syria under 164 00:12:43.960 --> 00:12:46.919 Bashar al Asad and before Bashar al Asad was his 165 00:12:47.000 --> 00:12:50.320 father was kind of the dictator. Before that, they would 166 00:12:50.519 --> 00:12:54.639 use Syria as their sort of through point for getting 167 00:12:54.840 --> 00:13:00.639 arms and weaponry transferred from Iran to the Syrian to 168 00:13:01.799 --> 00:13:07.399 their various little proxy militant entities throughout the Middle East. 169 00:13:07.480 --> 00:13:17.440 The Huthis, Palestinian Palestinian groups has blah things like that. Anyway, 170 00:13:17.519 --> 00:13:24.080 the guy who overthrew As'ad, who's now in charge of Syria, 171 00:13:24.679 --> 00:13:27.360 he had been a former al Qaida guy, and now 172 00:13:27.399 --> 00:13:30.679 everyone's like, oh, he's this moderate rebel because everyone disliked, 173 00:13:31.200 --> 00:13:34.159 you know, everyone within the American foreign policy establishment. Understandably 174 00:13:34.159 --> 00:13:35.919 he did not like Asad, but they are trying to 175 00:13:35.919 --> 00:13:38.720 gussie up this new guys if he's some wonderful saint, 176 00:13:39.159 --> 00:13:41.600 and it sort of remains to be seen how this 177 00:13:41.639 --> 00:13:47.080 new guy is going to govern, and it also remains 178 00:13:47.080 --> 00:13:48.679 to be seen, like, you know, how stable is this 179 00:13:48.720 --> 00:14:00.919 guy gonna be? This guy Ahmed al Sharrah, so you know, 180 00:14:01.480 --> 00:14:04.200 how stable is that guy going to be? You know, 181 00:14:04.240 --> 00:14:09.559 we replaced the Taliban in Afghanistan and we had twenty 182 00:14:09.639 --> 00:14:14.039 years of constant fighting. We replaced Saddam in Iraq and 183 00:14:14.080 --> 00:14:20.840 we have, you know, twenty years of constant fighting. So 184 00:14:23.000 --> 00:14:25.440 the idea of you know, oh, the US will just 185 00:14:25.879 --> 00:14:27.960 engage in a couple of air strikes and then all 186 00:14:28.000 --> 00:14:32.120 of a sudden up regime change done. Hooray, mission accomplished. Boys, 187 00:14:32.799 --> 00:14:37.559 we did it that. I don't think that's how that works. 188 00:14:38.279 --> 00:14:41.879 I think there's a good chance that you can't achieve 189 00:14:42.240 --> 00:14:45.399 regime change, you know. And that's the thing. I feel 190 00:14:45.480 --> 00:14:51.279 like people of neo cons love doing this. I've been 191 00:14:51.720 --> 00:14:55.399 following politics since I was I don't know, fifteen, sixteen, 192 00:14:55.440 --> 00:14:58.240 seventeen years old, and I feel like I've heard for 193 00:14:58.320 --> 00:15:02.039 the last decade US certainly, and maybe longer than that, 194 00:15:03.000 --> 00:15:06.639 especially about Iran. Like remember the Green Revolution those happened 195 00:15:06.679 --> 00:15:10.240 all these different Middle Eastern countries during the Obama years 196 00:15:10.240 --> 00:15:13.159 we're having you know, the Egyptian government got overthrown and 197 00:15:13.200 --> 00:15:16.399 then got reoverthrown back to basically the same government they 198 00:15:16.399 --> 00:15:21.200 had before. All these Green revolutions were actually uh, people 199 00:15:21.200 --> 00:15:24.559 wound up with a lot worse governments during that time. 200 00:15:24.799 --> 00:15:27.799 And for years people have been saying, the Iranian people 201 00:15:27.960 --> 00:15:30.519 hate the regime they live under. They are suffering under 202 00:15:30.559 --> 00:15:33.440 the regime they live under. They they are chafing for 203 00:15:33.679 --> 00:15:40.360 They're they're champing at the bit yearning for freedom, to 204 00:15:40.399 --> 00:15:45.440 which I say, well are they? Though? Are they really? 205 00:15:46.519 --> 00:15:48.559 I mean that there were some of the Green Revolution 206 00:15:48.679 --> 00:15:53.480 protests like in the Obama era, But if so many 207 00:15:53.519 --> 00:15:59.440 millions of Iranians really don't like this regime, there's really 208 00:15:59.480 --> 00:16:02.360 no way that they could have overthrown this regime on 209 00:16:02.399 --> 00:16:06.919 their own without us prior. I don't know, That's the thing, 210 00:16:07.000 --> 00:16:09.960 Like I feel like we always want to overestimate this 211 00:16:10.120 --> 00:16:15.879 idea that the people genuinely hate their current existing government 212 00:16:15.879 --> 00:16:19.960 that the United States also hates. You know, I don't 213 00:16:20.000 --> 00:16:26.279 know how dissatisfied the Afghans were with the Taliban. I 214 00:16:26.320 --> 00:16:31.639 don't know how dissatisfied the Iraqis were with Saddam Hussein. 215 00:16:32.840 --> 00:16:38.159 I don't know. I don't know how dissatisfied, which leads 216 00:16:38.200 --> 00:16:40.399 me to my point. I don't know how dissatisfied the 217 00:16:40.399 --> 00:16:46.320 Iranians are with the current setup. I mean, will we 218 00:16:46.480 --> 00:16:50.120 actually be like and it's just that that narrative again, Well, 219 00:16:50.240 --> 00:16:54.879 we'll be treated as liberators, will we? I mean, yeah, 220 00:16:55.440 --> 00:16:57.320 they used to have the Shah, and they used to 221 00:16:57.360 --> 00:17:02.000 have this more open, you know, western open societ that 222 00:17:02.200 --> 00:17:07.640 was like fifty years ago, and they overthrew that guy 223 00:17:07.759 --> 00:17:11.319 and replaced him with the most not that kind of 224 00:17:11.359 --> 00:17:17.039 regime possible. You know, we bring up that they'll shoot 225 00:17:17.079 --> 00:17:19.799 women or execute women for walking around without a heye job. 226 00:17:21.480 --> 00:17:24.240 We think that's terrible. I don't know that most Iranians 227 00:17:24.279 --> 00:17:26.480 think that's terrible. I don't know. Maybe there are a 228 00:17:26.519 --> 00:17:28.839 lot of them who think it's terrible. Maybe, but I 229 00:17:28.880 --> 00:17:31.279 don't know that. And I don't feel like anyone in 230 00:17:31.319 --> 00:17:34.839 America has really the most solid grip on just how 231 00:17:35.039 --> 00:17:43.680 unpopular or popular the iatolas are in Iran. At the 232 00:17:43.680 --> 00:17:46.480 same time, there's the nuke thing. So we'll talk about 233 00:17:46.519 --> 00:17:48.680 the nuke thing, the big trump card in this after 234 00:17:48.720 --> 00:17:52.440 the break. This is John Girardi Show. As I said 235 00:17:52.440 --> 00:17:55.079 at the start of the show, I think my opinions 236 00:17:55.079 --> 00:17:57.519 on Iran are sort of wildly all over the place. 237 00:17:57.519 --> 00:17:59.440 I feel like I just kind of agree with whatever's 238 00:17:59.480 --> 00:18:01.400 the last thing I read. So if the last thing 239 00:18:01.440 --> 00:18:03.920 I read was we cannot allow the Iranians to get 240 00:18:03.920 --> 00:18:05.839 a new because we should, We should intervene, we should 241 00:18:05.839 --> 00:18:07.880 topple the regime now while we got the chance, I'm like, oh, 242 00:18:07.920 --> 00:18:11.160 that's pretty persuasive. And then I read someone else being like, really, 243 00:18:11.160 --> 00:18:13.359 you wont another war in the Middle East that's gonna 244 00:18:13.720 --> 00:18:16.960 drag on for twenty Oh, that's pretty persuasive. And you know, 245 00:18:17.000 --> 00:18:20.519 you're trying to do. Regime change is obviously not so simple. 246 00:18:21.119 --> 00:18:23.079 It's not like you snap your fingers and it just 247 00:18:23.119 --> 00:18:28.440 happens very often. It requires twenty years of dedicated, you know, 248 00:18:28.519 --> 00:18:31.880 ground forces, and maybe it's not super stable and god 249 00:18:31.960 --> 00:18:35.559 knows how committed the Iranians are. The one thing, the 250 00:18:35.559 --> 00:18:39.960 one thing with Irun that makes it a little more 251 00:18:40.000 --> 00:18:47.000 dicey than everyone else is whether they are well, let 252 00:18:47.039 --> 00:18:49.480 me put it this way, whether they were close to 253 00:18:49.519 --> 00:18:54.279 getting a nuke before the Israeli strikes, whether they are 254 00:18:54.359 --> 00:18:58.240 close to getting a nuke now after the Israeli strikes, 255 00:19:00.119 --> 00:19:04.160 whether long term they're going to be close to getting 256 00:19:04.160 --> 00:19:10.880 a nuke, whether they even want a nuke to begin with, Okay, 257 00:19:11.400 --> 00:19:14.039 which it seems that all of those points are disputed now, 258 00:19:14.240 --> 00:19:18.960 I guess I'm not. I give more credence to the 259 00:19:19.039 --> 00:19:20.960 idea that, yes, Iran would like to have a nuke, 260 00:19:21.000 --> 00:19:26.279 thank you very much, and then also the idea of, well, 261 00:19:26.640 --> 00:19:32.039 how will Iran act with a nuke? Most countries with nukes, 262 00:19:32.480 --> 00:19:36.440 even really bad countries like North Korea, don't use them 263 00:19:37.960 --> 00:19:43.440 willy nilly. It gives you negotiating leverage, but most countries 264 00:19:43.440 --> 00:19:49.240 don't actually use them. North Korea has a nuke, they 265 00:19:49.240 --> 00:19:54.000 don't use it. It strengthened, it strengthens their negotiating position 266 00:19:54.079 --> 00:19:57.519 in various kinds of ways. But they're not firing the 267 00:19:57.599 --> 00:20:01.400 nuke because they know if they actually fire a nuke, 268 00:20:01.880 --> 00:20:04.160 we will eliminate them from the face of the earth. 269 00:20:05.720 --> 00:20:08.839 So they don't fire a nukes. They have a nuke, 270 00:20:09.319 --> 00:20:17.759 it's a negotiating leverage point. They don't use it is 271 00:20:17.799 --> 00:20:21.480 the Ayatola Komane, an eighty six year old man, by 272 00:20:21.480 --> 00:20:23.119 the way, and there are these news stories about how 273 00:20:23.160 --> 00:20:25.880 he's kind of feeling totally disconnected because all the people 274 00:20:25.960 --> 00:20:28.599 he worked with are now dead. And frankly, I think 275 00:20:28.640 --> 00:20:31.319 it's a fair question of whether any you know, given 276 00:20:31.359 --> 00:20:33.279 that we in the United States just went through this 277 00:20:33.400 --> 00:20:38.319 with an octogenarian president, you know how loose it is he, 278 00:20:38.440 --> 00:20:40.839 how stable is here, and how stable is whoever's going 279 00:20:40.880 --> 00:20:47.400 to replace him? Is an iatola in Iran, either the 280 00:20:47.440 --> 00:20:49.359 current one or whoever's the next one, who is going 281 00:20:49.400 --> 00:20:53.920 to step up after Komane. Are they crazy enough, suicidal 282 00:20:54.039 --> 00:20:58.160 enough to actually use a nuke, to give a nuke 283 00:20:58.519 --> 00:21:04.000 to approx see to explode in Jerusalem? Is that even 284 00:21:04.039 --> 00:21:08.200 physically possible? I guess. I don't know all that. Do 285 00:21:08.240 --> 00:21:11.559 they have actually the ballistic missile technology to deliver said 286 00:21:11.799 --> 00:21:17.640 nuke a long distance? Do they have the ability to 287 00:21:17.680 --> 00:21:21.519 detonate a nuke in a city, to smuggle it into 288 00:21:21.559 --> 00:21:23.279 a city and there by detonate it. I don't know. 289 00:21:23.440 --> 00:21:25.000 I don't know. I don't know, I don't know, I 290 00:21:25.000 --> 00:21:29.920 don't know. But that is the big threat. That is 291 00:21:30.000 --> 00:21:34.000 the one thing that the Neokon side has in its 292 00:21:34.079 --> 00:21:42.319 favor is this is a unstable suicide bomb loving martyrdom, 293 00:21:43.039 --> 00:21:53.400 Islamic martyrdom, jihad, embracing theocratic government. It genuinely embraces these 294 00:21:53.400 --> 00:21:57.759 principles of theocracy and martyrdom for the cause of Jihad 295 00:21:57.839 --> 00:22:04.680 and Sharia. And they're going to have a nuke. You know, 296 00:22:05.480 --> 00:22:08.079 you think that they won't use the new You hope 297 00:22:08.119 --> 00:22:11.200 they would act rationally with the nuke, but that's not 298 00:22:11.359 --> 00:22:15.960 always a guarantee. One person can make one bad decision 299 00:22:16.240 --> 00:22:25.400 and all of a sudden, no Tel Aviv, no Jerusalem. No, 300 00:22:26.039 --> 00:22:28.680 you know, I don't know if it's possible to smuggle 301 00:22:29.200 --> 00:22:33.279 a nuclear weapon into a city in the West, you know, 302 00:22:33.440 --> 00:22:37.240 No Paris, no, you know, whatever it is. So I 303 00:22:37.640 --> 00:22:43.319 guess I can't I acknowledge that that is maybe the 304 00:22:43.359 --> 00:22:46.720 trump card. Now, maybe the Israeli strikes have completely decimated 305 00:22:46.720 --> 00:22:50.000 their nuclear capacity. I would want to know that one 306 00:22:50.000 --> 00:22:53.319 way or another before I'm supportive of regime change. But 307 00:22:53.480 --> 00:22:55.920 the nuke angle is the one trump card. And all 308 00:22:55.960 --> 00:22:58.200 this all right, when we return, will go away from 309 00:22:58.279 --> 00:23:03.599 foreign policy to domestic stuff. Gavin Newsom Gavin's Last gasp 310 00:23:03.680 --> 00:23:05.799 An update on his lawsuit against President Trump. That's next 311 00:23:05.839 --> 00:23:10.240 on the John Gerardy Show. I had a piece published 312 00:23:10.279 --> 00:23:12.359 by National Review today. You can check it out at 313 00:23:12.359 --> 00:23:15.680 my Twitter account Twitter dot com slash Fresnojohnny at Fresno Johnny. 314 00:23:17.839 --> 00:23:21.400 It's a piece basically about Gavin Newsome, And as I've 315 00:23:21.400 --> 00:23:25.839 talked about before, my thesis is that I think non 316 00:23:25.880 --> 00:23:29.640 Californians and even a lot of Californians, don't realize just 317 00:23:29.720 --> 00:23:36.160 how politically damaged Gavin Newsom is right now, and how 318 00:23:36.519 --> 00:23:42.920 he has really isolated himself within California and has racked 319 00:23:43.000 --> 00:23:51.240 up just a string of really embarrassing and devastating failures 320 00:23:51.599 --> 00:23:57.720 that and critically, it's failures that are non partisan in nature, 321 00:23:57.759 --> 00:24:01.160 that have outcomes that are non partisan in nature. Things 322 00:24:01.200 --> 00:24:03.640 that he said were a priority in twenty eighteen that 323 00:24:03.680 --> 00:24:11.279 he just didn't deliver on. Things that are just bad homelessness, 324 00:24:13.759 --> 00:24:16.119 lack of new home construction, when he's been saying since 325 00:24:16.119 --> 00:24:18.000 twenty eighteen, Oh, there's a serious problem, we need to 326 00:24:18.039 --> 00:24:25.000 fix it. The high speed rail having zero point zero 327 00:24:25.000 --> 00:24:31.079 inches of operable track. Wildfires. Wildfires were a huge problem 328 00:24:31.119 --> 00:24:34.319 twenty nineteen, twenty twenty, they were still a big problem 329 00:24:34.400 --> 00:24:38.960 at the start of twenty twenty five. He has issue 330 00:24:39.000 --> 00:24:41.640 after issue after issue after issued like that where it's like, 331 00:24:41.880 --> 00:24:44.839 it's not a thing where Republicans really don't like it, 332 00:24:44.880 --> 00:24:47.680 but Democrats really like it because it's a super liberal policy. No, 333 00:24:48.000 --> 00:24:52.319 it's a wildfire. Nobody likes a wildfire. Homelessness. Nobody likes homelessness. 334 00:24:52.480 --> 00:24:55.559 Davin Newsom spent twenty four billion dollars on homelessness and 335 00:24:55.720 --> 00:24:58.039 it hasn't helped the problem at all. So no one 336 00:24:58.079 --> 00:25:01.079 likes homelessness. No one likes high how costs. No one 337 00:25:01.160 --> 00:25:03.799 likes the fact that we can't build anything quickly in California, 338 00:25:04.079 --> 00:25:09.119 including new homes. Nobody likes wildfires. Nobody blah blah blah 339 00:25:09.119 --> 00:25:11.440 blah blah blah blah, issue after issue after issue, or 340 00:25:11.559 --> 00:25:13.799 what he has is something that's like a liberal policy 341 00:25:13.880 --> 00:25:15.880 that he's had to backtrack from because it's been such 342 00:25:15.880 --> 00:25:21.559 a disaster. He extended medical eligibility to illegal aliens. It 343 00:25:21.680 --> 00:25:25.680 wound up being way more expensive than he thought, so 344 00:25:25.880 --> 00:25:28.440 he has to pull back on it. So that looks 345 00:25:28.519 --> 00:25:32.079 bad to everybody. It's not a thing that just Republicans 346 00:25:32.319 --> 00:25:36.200 are mad at because Republicans don't support giving medical coverage 347 00:25:36.200 --> 00:25:38.079 to people who aren't supposed to be in the country. 348 00:25:39.599 --> 00:25:44.839 This is something that looks bad to everyone. Liberals are 349 00:25:45.240 --> 00:25:49.519 far angrier at Gavin Newsom right now than conservatives are 350 00:25:49.960 --> 00:25:54.039 over the medical for illegals thing. All right. Conservatives are 351 00:25:54.119 --> 00:25:57.079 just like, okay, well, you know, just another thing that 352 00:25:57.200 --> 00:25:59.599 we don't like. I mean, you know, it's a thing 353 00:25:59.680 --> 00:26:03.920 that we would expect from Gavin Newsom. Liberals in Sacramento. 354 00:26:04.119 --> 00:26:08.720 Liberals in the state legislature like Joaquin A. Rambula, for example, 355 00:26:10.440 --> 00:26:16.359 are really upset at the withdrawal of coverage from illegal aliens, 356 00:26:18.200 --> 00:26:21.079 really upset. Advocacy groups all up and down the state 357 00:26:21.160 --> 00:26:24.119 are super angry at Gavin Newsom for the withdrawal of 358 00:26:25.039 --> 00:26:28.240 some medical coverage from some illegal aliens, not all, but some, 359 00:26:29.839 --> 00:26:35.279 so they are just fit to be tied. Most of 360 00:26:35.359 --> 00:26:39.599 the state legislature, in fact, is unhappy with it, and 361 00:26:39.799 --> 00:26:43.279 the state legislative proposal for the budget. The state legislator's 362 00:26:43.319 --> 00:26:46.240 proposal from the budget sort of moderates even the Newsom position, 363 00:26:48.519 --> 00:26:51.039 and a bunch of Democrat legislators aren't even happy with that. 364 00:26:52.039 --> 00:26:58.200 So Newsom is hugely politically damaged right now. He has 365 00:26:58.759 --> 00:27:02.400 isolated people in California. You've got because of his cuts. 366 00:27:02.519 --> 00:27:06.160 You've got teachers unions mad at him, public workers, public 367 00:27:06.240 --> 00:27:09.680 workers unions mad at him. You've got the abortion industry 368 00:27:09.759 --> 00:27:14.599 mad at him. You've got Planned Parenthood was furious at 369 00:27:14.680 --> 00:27:18.160 the cuts he proposed in the May revision. He's got 370 00:27:18.559 --> 00:27:21.880 environmentalists getting mad at him because now he's belatedly trying 371 00:27:21.920 --> 00:27:24.480 to do more water delivery stuff for southern California to 372 00:27:24.559 --> 00:27:28.319 equip them for wildfires, and they're mad at some of 373 00:27:28.319 --> 00:27:34.319 the stuff he's trying to do there. You've got legislators 374 00:27:34.599 --> 00:27:37.079 really mad at him. You've got advocacy groups really mad. 375 00:27:37.200 --> 00:27:44.640 Everyone is mad at him. So he has all these 376 00:27:44.880 --> 00:27:52.960 non partisan failures. He's got fellow liberals really ticked off 377 00:27:53.000 --> 00:27:57.960 at him. He's the ultimate lame duck. He's only got 378 00:27:58.000 --> 00:27:59.119 a year and a half. He's got a year and 379 00:27:59.160 --> 00:28:02.839 a half left as govern and you can see the 380 00:28:03.000 --> 00:28:06.680 tenor of conversations that happened in Sacramento. It's shifting away 381 00:28:06.759 --> 00:28:10.680 from a Newsom centric focus. The legislature sees his May 382 00:28:10.759 --> 00:28:13.200 revision of the budget and they're like, well, we don't 383 00:28:13.279 --> 00:28:16.599 want that. We're gonna give our own proposal. That doesn't 384 00:28:16.640 --> 00:28:22.039 cut as much as you cut, and they sort of 385 00:28:22.400 --> 00:28:24.519 I think they're taking this attitude of they're not afraid 386 00:28:24.519 --> 00:28:27.960 of Gavin Newsom anymore. I think Gavin Newsom, especially around 387 00:28:28.000 --> 00:28:30.920 the time of his recall, Newsom at the time of 388 00:28:30.960 --> 00:28:34.839 his recall clearly had more power, more clout, more money 389 00:28:34.920 --> 00:28:39.880 behind him, more support within the Democrat Party than he 390 00:28:40.240 --> 00:28:44.319 had ever had, and he was able to intimidate every 391 00:28:44.359 --> 00:28:48.160 elected Democrat in California and basically say, if any Democrat 392 00:28:48.799 --> 00:28:55.240 dares to run in the recall election, their career is over. 393 00:28:55.839 --> 00:28:57.960 And he was able to do that. He had the muscle, 394 00:28:58.079 --> 00:29:01.039 the money behind him to do that. He had organized 395 00:29:01.079 --> 00:29:03.279 labor all behind him, he had the environmental groups all 396 00:29:03.279 --> 00:29:06.000 behind him. He had his traditional, you know, magic circle 397 00:29:06.039 --> 00:29:09.400 of donors. The CEO of Netflix was giving like tens 398 00:29:09.440 --> 00:29:11.920 of millions of dollars to the anti recall campaign because 399 00:29:11.920 --> 00:29:15.279 there wasn't a there's no dollar contribution limit on a 400 00:29:15.400 --> 00:29:17.480 yes or a no on a recall campaign like there 401 00:29:17.559 --> 00:29:23.079