WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.560 --> 00:00:03.640 Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes on A 2 00:00:03.720 --> 00:00:06.839 full full crew is back. So happy new year, guys, 3 00:00:07.040 --> 00:00:10.880 Ady Millburn, Jason Lyons mc mulroy and myself. 4 00:00:12.119 --> 00:00:12.679 Lock Cooking. 5 00:00:12.759 --> 00:00:15.640 We've had a bunch of episodes dropped the last week, 6 00:00:15.720 --> 00:00:18.719 or a couple episodes the last couple week, so check 7 00:00:18.760 --> 00:00:20.839 those out for sure. One thing I need to tell 8 00:00:20.879 --> 00:00:23.480 everybody up top is to like and subscribe. Don't forget 9 00:00:23.519 --> 00:00:25.440 to do that. And if you're listening to us on 10 00:00:25.480 --> 00:00:28.280 the audio platforms, you can subscribe and like it and 11 00:00:28.359 --> 00:00:31.160 rated five stars there. It really helps. And if you 12 00:00:31.280 --> 00:00:34.600 really want to go above and beyond, tell your friends, 13 00:00:35.280 --> 00:00:37.439 share it, send it out there so we can keep 14 00:00:37.479 --> 00:00:38.359 growing this thing. 15 00:00:40.640 --> 00:00:41.039 Busy. 16 00:00:41.719 --> 00:00:44.000 I mean, it kind of slowed down over the holiday 17 00:00:44.000 --> 00:00:47.039 break and then it's kind of picked up domestically. And also, 18 00:00:47.880 --> 00:00:51.920 you know, gearing up for the new administration, there was 19 00:00:51.960 --> 00:00:53.960 some word make you wanted to talk about, like what 20 00:00:54.119 --> 00:00:56.200 the China Plan is going to look like in the 21 00:00:56.200 --> 00:01:00.679 new administration, and if there's a little bit of a 22 00:01:00.719 --> 00:01:04.640 schism in the administration in terms of what side wants 23 00:01:04.640 --> 00:01:07.359 to do, wants to defend Taiwan, what side doesn't want 24 00:01:07.359 --> 00:01:09.519 to defend Taiwan if it were to come to that, 25 00:01:10.480 --> 00:01:12.680 and yeah, I'll let you rock and roll. 26 00:01:13.640 --> 00:01:16.599 Yeah, well yeah, Happy New Year's fellaws, Happy New Years 27 00:01:16.599 --> 00:01:22.599 to everybody in the audience. I think the biggest thing 28 00:01:22.680 --> 00:01:25.719 going on right now and the national security realm is 29 00:01:25.719 --> 00:01:29.519 trying to predict or at least, uh try to guess 30 00:01:29.560 --> 00:01:34.840 how policy will change. Foreign policy, in particular course with 31 00:01:34.959 --> 00:01:38.000 the transition between the Biden administration to the second Trump administration, 32 00:01:38.680 --> 00:01:42.439 so on the China front, Having got a call from 33 00:01:42.439 --> 00:01:45.599 somebody who remain nameless, but was okay with the discussion 34 00:01:46.439 --> 00:01:50.000 saying that you know, there is a he didn't call 35 00:01:50.040 --> 00:01:52.120 it a schism, so I will call it more of 36 00:01:52.159 --> 00:01:56.640 a debate already in the transition team on the national 37 00:01:56.680 --> 00:02:00.760 security side on how they're going to go about the 38 00:02:00.879 --> 00:02:04.920 strategic competition with China. You know, there's a pretty significant 39 00:02:04.920 --> 00:02:08.400 element within the Trump team that is what I would 40 00:02:08.400 --> 00:02:13.680 call chinahawks. So they are wanting to put maximum effort 41 00:02:13.919 --> 00:02:18.120 on the strategic competition with China, which means defending our 42 00:02:18.159 --> 00:02:22.199 allies in the region of course, Japan for example, the 43 00:02:22.199 --> 00:02:30.159 Philippines for example, and also the defensive Taiwan specifically. You know, 44 00:02:30.520 --> 00:02:35.639 beyond just the legal requirement under the Taiwan Support Act. 45 00:02:36.520 --> 00:02:39.680 So there's those that want to get more aggressive and 46 00:02:39.759 --> 00:02:44.319 spend more of our resources in attribute more of our 47 00:02:44.360 --> 00:02:47.599 resources to the End Pacific. And then there's an element 48 00:02:47.639 --> 00:02:49.759 in there that I would just call more on the 49 00:02:49.800 --> 00:02:55.879 business side, which could include you know, Elon Musk and 50 00:02:56.000 --> 00:03:00.280 others that have a substantial influence with the administration on 51 00:03:01.199 --> 00:03:05.639 not tweaking China too much. Now, I would imagine that 52 00:03:05.840 --> 00:03:09.919 there's it's not an either or. There's probably good arguments 53 00:03:09.919 --> 00:03:14.479 and good points on both sides of this. We're intimately 54 00:03:14.919 --> 00:03:18.800 tied to China when it comes to global economics, but 55 00:03:18.879 --> 00:03:23.400 it's apparently already become an issue with I think Senator 56 00:03:23.479 --> 00:03:26.280 Rubio likely the next Secretary of State, being more on 57 00:03:26.319 --> 00:03:30.240 the China hawks side, that's my characterization, and others that 58 00:03:30.360 --> 00:03:35.599 have direct influence on President Trump potentially not completely aligning 59 00:03:35.639 --> 00:03:39.199 with what they intend to do. So it's going to 60 00:03:39.240 --> 00:03:41.759 be interesting, I think on that front on just what 61 00:03:41.800 --> 00:03:42.120 we do. 62 00:03:44.240 --> 00:03:46.919 Yeah, I think no. 63 00:03:47.080 --> 00:03:48.960 I was just going to ask, is there any indication 64 00:03:49.479 --> 00:03:52.479 on which way President that Trump is leaning? 65 00:03:54.919 --> 00:03:57.879 Good question, Jason, That's exactly what I asked him. Now, 66 00:03:59.199 --> 00:04:01.800 to be fair, he's biased he is a China Hawk, 67 00:04:02.240 --> 00:04:05.599 so he thinks that he that President Trump's firmly in 68 00:04:06.000 --> 00:04:10.319 their camp, but does have a much more pragmatic view 69 00:04:10.599 --> 00:04:14.560 of a strategy or a policy when it comes to this, 70 00:04:14.719 --> 00:04:18.399 that he won't like fully commit either way. He will 71 00:04:18.439 --> 00:04:21.360 make the decision as as it plays out, and he's 72 00:04:21.399 --> 00:04:24.040 going to listen to all sides. So I think they 73 00:04:24.079 --> 00:04:28.000 realize they be in the Chinahawks, that they're going to 74 00:04:28.000 --> 00:04:30.759 have to make their case continuously, which might make it 75 00:04:30.759 --> 00:04:33.600 a little bit difficult for a long term strategy. But 76 00:04:33.639 --> 00:04:36.959 that's just the way President Trump, you know, has done 77 00:04:36.959 --> 00:04:38.279 it in the past and likely is going to do 78 00:04:38.319 --> 00:04:39.920 it again. So it's going to be it's going to 79 00:04:39.920 --> 00:04:41.800 be something that might not be either or, and it 80 00:04:41.920 --> 00:04:45.560 might change as the circumstances change. Of course, all these 81 00:04:45.600 --> 00:04:49.680 tariffs that might come out could force this into a 82 00:04:49.680 --> 00:04:54.279 a significant competition, right, so a tense competition for. 83 00:04:54.240 --> 00:04:57.399 Sure, Thank you, Sorry, Andy Goohead. 84 00:04:57.839 --> 00:05:00.920 No, it's just saying that, you know, of all the 85 00:05:02.600 --> 00:05:07.240 of all the global threats that most threatened to pull 86 00:05:07.319 --> 00:05:10.199 the United States into, you know, out and out war 87 00:05:10.879 --> 00:05:17.399 pier on pier, it's certainly Taiwan, and it's it's kind 88 00:05:17.399 --> 00:05:22.079 of interesting. I mean, the Biden administration never really abandoned 89 00:05:22.600 --> 00:05:28.160 the policy of strategic ambiguity, right, but they you know, 90 00:05:28.199 --> 00:05:30.279 Biden kind of edged forward and some of the things 91 00:05:30.279 --> 00:05:34.399 that he was saying that coming bordering on the United 92 00:05:34.439 --> 00:05:36.879 States is committed to defend Taiwan, but he never actually 93 00:05:36.879 --> 00:05:41.040 came out and say that. But but Rubio and and 94 00:05:41.040 --> 00:05:45.120 and the other guy is Waltz, have been pushing for 95 00:05:45.439 --> 00:05:48.639 strategic clarity, you know, to to actually declare that the 96 00:05:48.759 --> 00:05:54.079 US will back Taiwan in the event of attempted Chinese invasion. 97 00:05:54.319 --> 00:05:58.000 And whether or not you believe, you know, the prognosis 98 00:05:58.040 --> 00:06:01.199 of the commander of Indo p who said recently that 99 00:06:01.240 --> 00:06:03.639 he expected that, you know, China would by the end 100 00:06:03.680 --> 00:06:08.920 of the decade try and invade Taiwan. Certainly there are 101 00:06:08.959 --> 00:06:13.639 indications that g is edging towards, if not out and 102 00:06:13.720 --> 00:06:17.360 out confrontation, certainly rampant, you know, up in the anti 103 00:06:18.800 --> 00:06:23.959 by you know, by declaring that that Taiwan is you know, 104 00:06:24.079 --> 00:06:27.959 renegade state that the you know, the premiere there has 105 00:06:28.079 --> 00:06:34.439 been has been intolerably belligerent in all of these things. 106 00:06:34.519 --> 00:06:37.879 It's not just the rhetoric, the fact that China's stepped 107 00:06:37.959 --> 00:06:41.439 up its patrols in the air see patrols that it's 108 00:06:42.040 --> 00:06:44.360 you know, it's old news that it's been building bases 109 00:06:44.800 --> 00:06:48.160 on reclaimed land, you know, along the nine dash line. 110 00:06:48.199 --> 00:06:52.399 I mean it, without being kind of chicken little, it 111 00:06:52.480 --> 00:06:56.079 does seem as though some really hard decisions are going 112 00:06:56.120 --> 00:06:59.279 to be made. I think central to those decisions are 113 00:06:59.360 --> 00:07:02.839 this question of whether the US is going to kind 114 00:07:02.839 --> 00:07:08.240 of go on pretending that or being a peaue about 115 00:07:08.279 --> 00:07:11.839 its intentions should China actually invade Taiwan, or whether they 116 00:07:11.879 --> 00:07:15.560 will kind of jump on whether Trump will jump on 117 00:07:16.639 --> 00:07:21.160 the platform of out and out saying out and out 118 00:07:21.199 --> 00:07:25.160 commitment to defend Taiwan, which honestly, I've got to say, 119 00:07:26.279 --> 00:07:30.360 it's just difficult to imagine, isn't it that any administration 120 00:07:30.560 --> 00:07:35.560 we talked about this before would commit US troops, US 121 00:07:35.720 --> 00:07:39.199 lives the defense of Taiwan. And I can't imagine, you know, 122 00:07:39.240 --> 00:07:40.959 I'm not coming down either way on this, but I 123 00:07:41.040 --> 00:07:44.360 can't imagine that the American public would support such a thing. 124 00:07:44.399 --> 00:07:46.839 And it seems to fly in the face of what 125 00:07:46.879 --> 00:07:50.279 Trump has been saying about not wanting to be involved 126 00:07:50.319 --> 00:07:52.959 in wars overseas. 127 00:07:54.560 --> 00:07:57.079 That's a good point. It's one thing to have these 128 00:07:57.120 --> 00:08:01.160 discussions in time inside the you know, the DC Beltway. 129 00:08:01.240 --> 00:08:04.279 It's another to try to convince the American people that 130 00:08:04.319 --> 00:08:08.120 they need to commit a substantial amount of force to 131 00:08:08.160 --> 00:08:11.000 be able to defend Taiwan. And all the war games, 132 00:08:11.120 --> 00:08:13.480 some of them I think have been reported in the media, 133 00:08:14.519 --> 00:08:16.800 they play this scenario out. It's not good. I mean, 134 00:08:17.040 --> 00:08:21.160 we win in these scenarios from one of a purric 135 00:08:21.240 --> 00:08:24.639 victory in the sense that we lose a lot of 136 00:08:24.680 --> 00:08:27.000 troops who use a lot of ships, a lot of aircraft. 137 00:08:27.800 --> 00:08:31.680 Taiwan gets decimated, Japan potentially as well. In China, of course, 138 00:08:33.200 --> 00:08:34.720 is the biggest loser in it, but I guess you 139 00:08:34.720 --> 00:08:38.000 could say everybody could be a loser in it. And 140 00:08:38.039 --> 00:08:41.639 then of course at risk and all out, which would 141 00:08:41.679 --> 00:08:45.360 be an all out war between two superpowers, nuclear superpowers, 142 00:08:45.919 --> 00:08:48.720 So it's a huge It's one thing to have a 143 00:08:48.759 --> 00:08:51.279 policy discussion in a think tank at DC. It's another 144 00:08:51.279 --> 00:08:53.440 one to see this actually play out. And I think 145 00:08:53.960 --> 00:08:56.279 and he makes a good point. I mean, when the 146 00:08:56.279 --> 00:08:59.720 American people start hearing discussions about the US going to war, 147 00:09:00.039 --> 00:09:02.600 I want they're gonna start looking at a map and say, what, 148 00:09:02.840 --> 00:09:07.919 what's this Taiwan right, because it's it's it's not it's 149 00:09:07.960 --> 00:09:09.639 not an easy decision, that's for sure. 150 00:09:11.879 --> 00:09:15.200 I mean, yeah, it'll take something dramatic to happen and 151 00:09:15.399 --> 00:09:19.080 like you know, an aircraft carrier sinking or something like 152 00:09:19.120 --> 00:09:21.279 that to get the US, just like how nine to 153 00:09:21.320 --> 00:09:28.039 eleven happened to get the US electorate or populous to 154 00:09:28.080 --> 00:09:30.240 be like, yeah, let's go for it. Like it would 155 00:09:30.279 --> 00:09:32.360 have to be oh, yeah, we need to get some payback, 156 00:09:33.399 --> 00:09:35.480 because that's pretty sure. That's how it goes with the 157 00:09:35.600 --> 00:09:38.320 US for the most part. It's like, you know, if 158 00:09:38.360 --> 00:09:41.879 we look first seemed to have been attacked in any way, 159 00:09:41.919 --> 00:09:44.159 we're like, okay, it's time to let it rip. 160 00:09:45.399 --> 00:09:49.960 But they were that would be changed. I agree, indeed, 161 00:09:51.039 --> 00:09:51.840 all right, go ahead. 162 00:09:52.200 --> 00:09:52.399 Yeah. 163 00:09:52.440 --> 00:09:56.000 The really tough part about the Taiwan question is the 164 00:09:56.120 --> 00:09:59.559 fact that we cannot prevent an invasion of Taiwan. We 165 00:09:59.600 --> 00:10:03.159 can on to one, but we you know, we we 166 00:10:03.440 --> 00:10:05.840 there's just no way that we can get forces in 167 00:10:05.879 --> 00:10:10.120 place to prevent crossing. You know that the Taiwan straight 168 00:10:10.759 --> 00:10:13.960 I mean, China will have I mean, it's it's going 169 00:10:14.039 --> 00:10:16.360 to be up to what is on the island. Now 170 00:10:17.240 --> 00:10:21.960 for that initial defense, I'm not saying it's going to 171 00:10:22.000 --> 00:10:24.799 be easy for China to gain a you know, a 172 00:10:24.879 --> 00:10:29.679 lodgment the beachhead, but nevertheless, it's likely to happen before 173 00:10:29.679 --> 00:10:32.440 we can get forces into the region. So you see 174 00:10:32.440 --> 00:10:36.360 what I'm saying. It's it's going to take a conscious 175 00:10:36.360 --> 00:10:40.519 decision to respond, rather than US to responding to a 176 00:10:40.679 --> 00:10:43.440 US attack on I mean to a Chinese attack on 177 00:10:43.559 --> 00:10:46.840 US forces, which would be easier to back with the 178 00:10:46.840 --> 00:10:49.960 American public. It's going to be you know, the Chinese 179 00:10:50.000 --> 00:10:52.279 are going to have be able to present us with 180 00:10:52.360 --> 00:10:55.679 facts on the ground. Yes, the fighting will be fierce 181 00:10:55.759 --> 00:10:58.639 or to be ongoing. The Chinese will take tremendous casualties 182 00:10:58.639 --> 00:11:02.799 crossing the strait, but nothing there now and nothing within 183 00:11:02.960 --> 00:11:06.080 range can prevent them from doing that from at least 184 00:11:06.120 --> 00:11:09.320 seizing a bridgehead. I mean, that's I'm not an expert 185 00:11:09.360 --> 00:11:12.279 on this, but that's what the war games suggest, and 186 00:11:12.360 --> 00:11:14.440 so it's going to be up to the US to 187 00:11:14.559 --> 00:11:19.000 respond and they to dislodge them. And that's really that's 188 00:11:19.039 --> 00:11:22.679 not only politically tough, it's a military tough proposition. 189 00:11:24.720 --> 00:11:27.279 Yeah. The second scenario is it wouldn't be an all 190 00:11:27.320 --> 00:11:30.840 out invasion. It could be some kind of attempt to 191 00:11:30.919 --> 00:11:36.080 isolate Taiwan blockade blockade, which then the US would have 192 00:11:36.120 --> 00:11:40.039 to make the determination of whether to you know, run 193 00:11:40.080 --> 00:11:40.879 that blockade. 194 00:11:41.840 --> 00:11:44.519 Yeah, in which case we would still have to to 195 00:11:44.600 --> 00:11:47.039 make an aggressive move or an offensive move. 196 00:11:49.279 --> 00:11:53.320 I got a question, uh, like, if the US comes 197 00:11:53.360 --> 00:11:56.720 out in a strong you know, set, comes out strong 198 00:11:56.759 --> 00:11:58.559 support of like we will do what it takes to 199 00:11:58.600 --> 00:12:03.519 defend Taiwan, whether it's blockade or actual invasion, does that 200 00:12:03.600 --> 00:12:07.639 do enough to deter China from doing it. 201 00:12:07.639 --> 00:12:09.120 It's a speculative question. 202 00:12:08.879 --> 00:12:11.559 But that's the question that Andy was been talking about 203 00:12:11.559 --> 00:12:16.279 strategic ambiguity or strategic clarity, right, It's been we often 204 00:12:16.320 --> 00:12:19.039 do the strategic ambiguity, just don't tell them and they 205 00:12:19.080 --> 00:12:23.360 can guess. But many argue, why would do that? Why 206 00:12:23.399 --> 00:12:26.720 not be, you know, clarify. I guess the question is 207 00:12:26.720 --> 00:12:29.039 if you clarify, you better be really willing to back 208 00:12:29.080 --> 00:12:32.480 it up, right, because you can't do that many too 209 00:12:32.519 --> 00:12:36.480 often before people just don't care whether you're what you're saying. 210 00:12:38.000 --> 00:12:39.240 You don't back up what you say. 211 00:12:40.440 --> 00:12:42.879 It's it is a tough question. I mean, arguably, do 212 00:12:42.919 --> 00:12:45.600 you remember the invasion of uh you know, I know 213 00:12:45.679 --> 00:12:48.279 d was not born then, but the invasion of Kuwait 214 00:12:48.360 --> 00:12:50.679 back in nineteen ninety. 215 00:12:50.639 --> 00:12:55.159 I was born then, and I mean I was five. 216 00:12:57.519 --> 00:13:00.480 They didn't, you know, in any case, So the argument 217 00:13:00.639 --> 00:13:03.559 was that, I mean, the strong argument was that the 218 00:13:04.200 --> 00:13:07.919 US was not clear enough about how it would react, 219 00:13:08.320 --> 00:13:11.360 you know. And the ambassador in Baghdad was actually blamed 220 00:13:11.360 --> 00:13:16.240 for being ambiguous when Saddam Hussein started ranting about what 221 00:13:16.320 --> 00:13:20.360 he intended to do and Kuwait. So you know, strategic 222 00:13:21.120 --> 00:13:24.799 ambiguity does not sometimes counts against this. But as Mick 223 00:13:24.840 --> 00:13:29.000 points out, this is such an enormous decision and if 224 00:13:29.039 --> 00:13:30.960 we commit to it, then we really have to commit 225 00:13:31.000 --> 00:13:36.240 to it and announcing it. I think one of the 226 00:13:36.279 --> 00:13:38.440 reasons why we haven't announced it isn't just because we 227 00:13:38.480 --> 00:13:40.639 don't want to be tied to it. It's it's the 228 00:13:40.840 --> 00:13:44.360 enormity of the announcement to the American public. 229 00:13:44.799 --> 00:13:45.039 Right. 230 00:13:45.399 --> 00:13:48.480 I mean, as long as we're ambiguous, it doesn't become 231 00:13:48.519 --> 00:13:52.879 front and center as a domestic issue or i mean 232 00:13:53.200 --> 00:13:57.080 an issue for the electorate. But once we announce it, 233 00:13:57.080 --> 00:14:02.960 it certainly does very easy, very easy stance to attack. 234 00:14:05.159 --> 00:14:07.360 Yeah, and the and the reference you just made and 235 00:14:07.480 --> 00:14:11.639 I believe Saidda he stated that he thought that gave 236 00:14:11.759 --> 00:14:18.519 him tacit approval. Obviously that wasn't the case. But that's 237 00:14:18.519 --> 00:14:22.320 the risk of not being really clear with what you'll do. 238 00:14:22.799 --> 00:14:23.600 But it does kind of lock. 239 00:14:23.679 --> 00:14:28.840 Yet what other ways is can we kind of deter 240 00:14:28.960 --> 00:14:31.720 it without being like, yeah, well we'll straight up send 241 00:14:31.960 --> 00:14:33.279 five carrier groups and. 242 00:14:34.919 --> 00:14:35.679 Fuck you guys up. 243 00:14:35.799 --> 00:14:37.200 You know what I mean, Like, what are like the 244 00:14:37.320 --> 00:14:40.519 economic ways or diplomatic ways you can put pressure on 245 00:14:40.639 --> 00:14:43.679 China to like not invade Taiwan. 246 00:14:44.960 --> 00:14:48.720 You can make Taiwan very very tough to swallow. You know, 247 00:14:48.759 --> 00:14:51.759 that's probably I mean militarily, that's that's one of the things. 248 00:14:51.840 --> 00:14:54.840 The only things we can do is really you know, 249 00:14:54.919 --> 00:15:00.200 take a if it's still sticking to strategic and piguity. 250 00:15:00.440 --> 00:15:04.600 We nevertheless put facts on the ground helping Taiwan build 251 00:15:04.600 --> 00:15:11.399 its defenses, building a a militia. You know, Time's already 252 00:15:11.399 --> 00:15:14.600 working on this, but that that you know, prepared to 253 00:15:14.600 --> 00:15:18.080 go underground and make the seizure of any part of 254 00:15:18.120 --> 00:15:21.360 Taiwan extremely painful for China. You know, all of those 255 00:15:21.399 --> 00:15:23.840 efforts are kind of playing I mean, they're playing in 256 00:15:23.879 --> 00:15:27.080 the gray zone which is playing China's game, but they're 257 00:15:27.120 --> 00:15:30.559 sending they're sending a very clear message to China without 258 00:15:30.600 --> 00:15:37.320 coming out and saying anything, you know, putting us offt on, 259 00:15:37.639 --> 00:15:40.080 you know, on laughing because of all the media attention 260 00:15:40.200 --> 00:15:43.080 that this has already received. But us offt on the 261 00:15:43.120 --> 00:15:47.519 island now to to help train and and prepare, and 262 00:15:47.600 --> 00:15:49.759 of course you know what we are doing to an extent, 263 00:15:49.840 --> 00:15:56.320 which is giving Taiwan top end weapons systems specifically designed 264 00:15:56.399 --> 00:15:59.879 to repel an amphibious and airborne assault. 265 00:16:01.080 --> 00:16:01.240 Yeah. 266 00:16:01.279 --> 00:16:06.200 I think they were calling it the porcupine strategy. You know, 267 00:16:06.240 --> 00:16:08.320 you're gonna get it, but you're gonna hurt, you know. 268 00:16:10.559 --> 00:16:13.159 Yeah. And that's the Taiwan Relations Act, and I'm looking 269 00:16:13.200 --> 00:16:16.159 at it here, nineteen seventy nine. It doesn't require that 270 00:16:16.200 --> 00:16:19.759 we come to their defense militarily, but it does require 271 00:16:19.799 --> 00:16:24.600 that we provide Taiwan with the military capacity to resist, 272 00:16:25.320 --> 00:16:29.879 you know, any attempt to remove them from power and 273 00:16:29.960 --> 00:16:34.559 take over Taiwan. So that is that is something we 274 00:16:34.639 --> 00:16:37.759 have legally required ourselves to do. And that's I think 275 00:16:37.919 --> 00:16:40.279 going to your point, Andy, is that we're going to 276 00:16:40.360 --> 00:16:46.679 make them so difficult to actually militarily dominate that China 277 00:16:46.679 --> 00:16:48.960 will hopefully not decide to do that. 278 00:16:50.519 --> 00:16:53.879 Make sure the who's the prick in the Trump transition 279 00:16:54.000 --> 00:16:56.639 team that doesn't want to go get tough on China? 280 00:16:57.720 --> 00:17:00.240 You could say it's no, I didn't. 281 00:17:01.600 --> 00:17:02.480 The person I was talking to. 282 00:17:03.559 --> 00:17:04.720 No, Yeah, I figured that. 283 00:17:04.880 --> 00:17:05.279 Yeah. 284 00:17:05.680 --> 00:17:09.240 Yeah, I mean I think he's referred to as the 285 00:17:09.240 --> 00:17:12.680 business side of this, which is obviously important as well. 286 00:17:12.759 --> 00:17:17.240 It's not all military, right, there's an economic component. And 287 00:17:17.920 --> 00:17:20.559 he didn't reference him. I'm referencing you know that there's 288 00:17:20.920 --> 00:17:23.359 people that have significant influence with the president, that have 289 00:17:23.480 --> 00:17:30.359 significant interest interest in the China relationship. Yeah, Musk is 290 00:17:30.359 --> 00:17:31.039 one of them. 291 00:17:31.359 --> 00:17:36.880 That's yeah, become as secretary. It's his name. 292 00:17:38.720 --> 00:17:39.039 Could be. 293 00:17:39.200 --> 00:17:44.160 I mean, has has talked about striking a striking a 294 00:17:44.279 --> 00:17:48.160 deal approach to China. Yeah, I'm just guessing here. 295 00:17:48.200 --> 00:17:50.079 But the end this, I mean, of course it's us. 296 00:17:50.160 --> 00:17:51.720 He's got the biggest voice. I mean, the move is 297 00:17:51.759 --> 00:17:53.440 that definitely just put that rift there. It's going to 298 00:17:53.480 --> 00:17:57.880 happen at some point between Musk and Trump. You know, 299 00:17:57.920 --> 00:18:04.079 they're just two to two narcissists that can't will not 300 00:18:04.160 --> 00:18:05.759 get along over the long haul. 301 00:18:05.839 --> 00:18:06.720 And that's the move. 302 00:18:06.839 --> 00:18:09.039 If they're doing that they should be doing that internally, 303 00:18:09.039 --> 00:18:11.759 if I were them, doing whatever I can to make 304 00:18:11.799 --> 00:18:16.759 them break up. For lack of a better term, I mean, right, 305 00:18:16.799 --> 00:18:20.680 everyone's waiting for that explosion, that that you know, those 306 00:18:20.720 --> 00:18:23.599 fireworks when it when it eventually happens, I try to 307 00:18:23.680 --> 00:18:26.119 rush that as soon as possible if I were them, 308 00:18:26.400 --> 00:18:28.640 because he does have a significant interest in China. 309 00:18:29.039 --> 00:18:30.400 It's a huge market for ye. 310 00:18:31.359 --> 00:18:33.640 Yeah, yeah, And I think that's that. I mean, it's 311 00:18:33.720 --> 00:18:35.480 it's going to be something that plays out. There's no 312 00:18:35.880 --> 00:18:37.359 I don't think there's gonna be a straight line. I 313 00:18:37.359 --> 00:18:41.920 think there's going to be multiple decision points and we'll 314 00:18:41.920 --> 00:18:44.559 see how it goes. But you know, the Chinahawks have. 315 00:18:44.519 --> 00:18:47.000 Been a big part of the right side of the 316 00:18:47.000 --> 00:18:50.880 political national security spectrum for a while, so they're they're 317 00:18:50.920 --> 00:18:52.799 pretty excited about this, and I guess they get they 318 00:18:52.839 --> 00:18:56.640 were surprised by the parent early pushback. 319 00:18:58.920 --> 00:19:00.160 Yeah uh uh. 320 00:19:01.000 --> 00:19:04.720 You know, before we are, if we leave the topic, 321 00:19:04.799 --> 00:19:07.759 one thing that hasn't been talked about, and I think 322 00:19:07.839 --> 00:19:10.440 maybe because it kind of flies in the face of 323 00:19:11.359 --> 00:19:17.200 trump sustensible distrust of alliances, of committing to alliances. But 324 00:19:17.319 --> 00:19:21.119 one thing that we haven't really done is focus on 325 00:19:21.359 --> 00:19:24.799 a network of bilateral relations in the Pacific. You know, 326 00:19:24.839 --> 00:19:29.400 there's no there's no organization that parallels NATO there and 327 00:19:29.640 --> 00:19:33.119 it would be hard to start one. But you know, 328 00:19:33.160 --> 00:19:36.559 we we're in a strong position to establish these bilateral 329 00:19:36.680 --> 00:19:39.480 relations and that is what China is working on right now. 330 00:19:39.920 --> 00:19:44.279 You know, China is simultaneously defending its position along the 331 00:19:44.400 --> 00:19:48.559 nine dash line, but at the same time working, you know, 332 00:19:48.599 --> 00:19:54.599 on appeasing some of the major players in the region Japan, Korea, 333 00:19:54.799 --> 00:19:58.279 South Korea. And so we need to play that game 334 00:19:58.319 --> 00:20:02.440 more and and we have to offer I'm just we 335 00:20:02.640 --> 00:20:05.079 you know, we owll this empty toolk about to pivot 336 00:20:05.119 --> 00:20:08.880 to Asia over a decade ago, but we really have 337 00:20:09.279 --> 00:20:12.519 done very little to back that up. Now would be 338 00:20:12.599 --> 00:20:13.200 the time. 339 00:20:13.519 --> 00:20:17.440 M yep, and you could do it both security wise 340 00:20:17.480 --> 00:20:21.240 and economic wise. To these alliances in the US. It 341 00:20:21.359 --> 00:20:24.200 was my former boss, uh used to say, maybe all 342 00:20:24.200 --> 00:20:26.440 are former bosses. Secretary of mattis is the US always 343 00:20:26.480 --> 00:20:31.559 fights with a coalition, right, So coalitions are built of alliances, 344 00:20:31.640 --> 00:20:34.799 and it's just part of It's always been part of warfare. 345 00:20:34.839 --> 00:20:39.200 It's not like it's a modern thing. So and uh, yeah, 346 00:20:39.279 --> 00:20:41.400 I think I think You're right that President Trump looks 347 00:20:41.440 --> 00:20:47.799 at a lot of these with some skepticism. Sometimes that's 348 00:20:47.839 --> 00:20:49.880 good because they wake up and realize that they got 349 00:20:49.880 --> 00:20:53.880 to start contributing more to the alliance itself, right uh. 350 00:20:53.920 --> 00:20:58.599 And you know, but hopefully the the traditionalist, I would say, 351 00:20:58.640 --> 00:21:01.519 and his administration can really highlight the importance of these 352 00:21:01.519 --> 00:21:04.519 alliances when it comes to competing with China, because China 353 00:21:04.559 --> 00:21:07.640 certainly realized Sowbourn they are and. 354 00:21:07.720 --> 00:21:10.519 The time is right, especially with the Philippines and Vietnam, 355 00:21:10.920 --> 00:21:13.400 you know, I mean Vietnam. Do you remember when we 356 00:21:13.440 --> 00:21:15.680 pulled out of a longer po I think it was 357 00:21:15.720 --> 00:21:18.279 way back in the in the early nineties. I mean, 358 00:21:18.319 --> 00:21:21.319 we pulled out of our clock and Subic Bay in 359 00:21:21.359 --> 00:21:26.079 the Philippines, and then under Due thirty we didn't have 360 00:21:26.119 --> 00:21:30.000 a great relationship with the Philippines. But now under Marcos 361 00:21:30.160 --> 00:21:33.519 Bongbong Marcos, with all the Chinese that are doing that, 362 00:21:33.839 --> 00:21:37.279 you know, they're reaching out to us again, and Vietnam 363 00:21:37.799 --> 00:21:39.640 has done for a long time. I mean, that would 364 00:21:39.640 --> 00:21:42.240 be a great place to establish a base, as ironic 365 00:21:42.279 --> 00:21:45.240 though it may seem, I mean, Camrade Bay no longer 366 00:21:45.279 --> 00:21:48.559 called that, I know, but would be a superb location 367 00:21:48.759 --> 00:21:53.920 to have a US Navy base, and that would send 368 00:21:54.119 --> 00:21:57.359 the Chinese up the wall if we established you know, 369 00:21:57.720 --> 00:22:00.799 we lodged the Pacific Fleet back in the Philippines and 370 00:22:00.920 --> 00:22:04.200 Vietnam right on their doorstep. And it would also help 371 00:22:04.279 --> 00:22:07.799 solve some of the distance time distance problems for a 372 00:22:07.880 --> 00:22:11.680 defensive Taiwan or the you know, counter attack of Taiwan. 373 00:22:14.160 --> 00:22:16.880 We're stacking, We're stacking all our eggs, you know, in 374 00:22:17.000 --> 00:22:22.200 South Korea and Japan, you know, in areas that are 375 00:22:22.359 --> 00:22:25.359 heavily targeted by the Chinese. And I think, you know, 376 00:22:25.400 --> 00:22:29.960 my feeling is we should diversify and take advantage of 377 00:22:31.319 --> 00:22:33.759 you know, particularly in the case of Vietnam, and I 378 00:22:33.799 --> 00:22:37.599 think that economically and everything, that would be just a 379 00:22:37.640 --> 00:22:40.559 great location. How ironic too, you know, I mean, they 380 00:22:40.640 --> 00:22:45.720 kick our ass, but in the end, you know, we get. 381 00:22:45.880 --> 00:22:51.000 I mean, yeah, fifty years, sixty years on, we we get. 382 00:22:51.400 --> 00:22:56.960 We get what we needed as a bulwark against communism 383 00:22:57.079 --> 00:22:58.160 in a communist country. 384 00:23:01.279 --> 00:23:03.119 Anything else you guys got on China. 385 00:23:05.880 --> 00:23:07.400 I mean, we'll have a lot more to say in 386 00:23:07.480 --> 00:23:08.279 China as we go. 387 00:23:08.279 --> 00:23:09.960 For Yeah, no, we covered it all. 388 00:23:10.200 --> 00:23:13.880 Yeah. Yeah. The next big thing, of course, what's gonna 389 00:23:13.880 --> 00:23:14.599 happen with Iran? 390 00:23:15.720 --> 00:23:17.759 Hey guys, it's Jack. I just wanted to talk to 391 00:23:17.799 --> 00:23:20.319 you today about a way that you can help support 392 00:23:20.359 --> 00:23:23.880 the podcast if you're not already to support the channel, 393 00:23:24.160 --> 00:23:27.599 is to become a Patreon member. So we have Patreon 394 00:23:27.680 --> 00:23:30.920 memberships that started just five dollars a month, and when 395 00:23:31.000 --> 00:23:33.480 you sign up, you get access to all of our 396 00:23:33.519 --> 00:23:36.960 episodes add free. That's the big bonus for that. I mean, 397 00:23:36.960 --> 00:23:40.759 we also do some Patreon bonus episodes for our subscribers, 398 00:23:41.480 --> 00:23:43.920 but this is the biggest and best way that you 399 00:23:43.920 --> 00:23:48.720 can support the Teamhouse channel and podcast if you'd like to, 400 00:23:49.240 --> 00:23:51.680 and we really appreciate that, So go and check us 401 00:23:51.680 --> 00:23:54.720