Speaker 1: Welcome back in to another episode of the XRP Pod.
Speaker 1: Today is going to be good because I've got none
Speaker 1: other than black Swan Capital on the show, so you
Speaker 1: guys can't miss that one. We're recovering everything from the
Speaker 1: FED to what's happening in the current market and some
Speaker 1: of the.
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Speaker 1: Be looking at playing this out, so be on the
Speaker 1: lookout for that. Of course, some of the other things
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Speaker 1: quickly and I just want to go into the market
Speaker 1: to talk a little bit here before I bring on
Speaker 1: Versuona Vendel. As you can see, we're on the XRP chart,
Speaker 1: big dip yesterday. I think some of this has been
Speaker 1: because of the macroeconomics, but also clarity pretty much got
Speaker 1: rug pulled, and that is a problem, I think, guys,
Speaker 1: as we start to see the future of what's going
Speaker 1: to be happening here, at least in the near term,
Speaker 1: so be on the lookout for the market to be
Speaker 1: much more volatile, especially around what could be happening with
Speaker 1: the Big three, which is going to be ETHEREUM, XRP, Slana, Stellar,
Speaker 1: some of those that, of course could see a big issue.
Speaker 1: I want to bring on the guys from Black Swan Capitalists,
Speaker 1: and you've seen them on the show here before.
Speaker 2: I'll bring them both, the.
Speaker 1: Guys and there we go. All right, versau Vendel, how are.
Speaker 3: You, good morning, doing very well.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Nice to see you.
Speaker 4: Both doing good. Good to see you too.
Speaker 1: So a lot happening is you guys, got a chance
Speaker 1: to see some pretty crazy things in the market in general.
Speaker 2: When you compare.
Speaker 1: I want to kind of lead off with the Fed decision,
Speaker 1: because this is one that I know you guys have
Speaker 1: been talking about this for a little bit, But when
Speaker 1: you look at the current possibility of a FED decision
Speaker 1: at least in July, it looks as though we're going
Speaker 1: to get a hold.
Speaker 2: But Vendell, let's start with you. What do you think.
Speaker 1: Do you think we're going to be on a hold
Speaker 1: here or do you think this is going to be
Speaker 1: a little longer.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it's going to be on a hold,
Speaker 5: but that doesn't change the long term destination based on
Speaker 5: where we are in the monetary cycle at the moment.
Speaker 5: So the only reason I think they're not going to
Speaker 5: hike rates, even though most of the a large percentage
Speaker 5: of the market is leaning in the odds of i'd say,
Speaker 5: what thirty seven percent, Yeah, probability that they will hike rates,
Speaker 5: I don't think they will is simply because the ten
Speaker 5: year and the two year yield in aggregate dictate essentially
Speaker 5: whether the Fed hikes, pauses or cut rates, and the
Speaker 5: tenure in the two year yield is it's basically what
Speaker 5: currently leads the Fed's decision.
Speaker 4: Okay, most people think it's you know, inflation.
Speaker 5: Or this, or that those are those are important metrics,
Speaker 5: even though they're somewhat flawed to some extent and manipulated,
Speaker 5: but that's not what dictates monetary policy, especially interest rates.
Speaker 5: The Fed funds rates right, it's the ten year in
Speaker 5: the two year yield, So when that starts shooting up aggressively,
Speaker 5: that's typically when you'll see rate pauses or rate hikes.
Speaker 5: In that instance, that's typically what they follow. And if
Speaker 5: it goes the opposite direction, which is lower, that's when
Speaker 5: the Fed starts reacting and following, and they'll what they'll
Speaker 5: do is they'll cut interest rates. So they're following that,
Speaker 5: and that's basically what the CME watch tool is. Of course,
Speaker 5: they're making their own anticipation based on other information, but
Speaker 5: that's largely where a large percentage of that is coming from.
Speaker 5: But I don't think it's breaking out high enough for
Speaker 5: them to have any reason. And if you just think
Speaker 5: about where we are in the cycle, they are not
Speaker 5: incentivized to raise rates. Okay, so far, what they've done
Speaker 5: if they've kept rates elevated since twenty twenty two for
Speaker 5: so long, and the only logical explanation for that is
Speaker 5: to put pressure on the system, on the economy for
Speaker 5: other nefarious agendas and to ultimately have a reason to
Speaker 5: aggressive cut rates later. So essentially they're just buying time
Speaker 5: at this point, but there's no reason for them to
Speaker 5: high rates. If anything, the most logical path forward is
Speaker 5: to hold to buy more time, or to simply begin
Speaker 5: the rate cutting cycle, which I think will happen towards
Speaker 5: end of the year or early twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 1: But okay, so you've got a low percentage here on
Speaker 1: July's meeting, but it starts to rise pretty dramatically, as
Speaker 1: you guys can see right there as we start to
Speaker 1: flow into September and October's meeting. And I guess that's
Speaker 1: my question is do you think we actually do get
Speaker 1: a rate cut later this year?
Speaker 2: You know, Vendel, you want to take it?
Speaker 4: Yes, I do.
Speaker 5: I you know, it's hard to say exactly when it
Speaker 5: will be, but I think the path we're heading on
Speaker 5: the path of lease resistance is ultimately to begin the
Speaker 5: rate cutting cycle and resume that path. So that's the
Speaker 5: direction we're going in. And the reason is simply because
Speaker 5: we're facing a debt crisis. Okay, right, that's basically the
Speaker 5: elephant in the room. We have, so much debt in
Speaker 5: the entire system, roughly three hundred and fifty three trillion
Speaker 5: dollars globally speaking. That's corporate that's government debt. But the
Speaker 5: government alone has to refinance between eight to ten trillion
Speaker 5: dollars alone in treasury debt in twenty twenty six, and
Speaker 5: that's just exponentially growing, of course, because the debt is
Speaker 5: only growing over time and alongside.
Speaker 4: The interest rate.
Speaker 5: So when they need to refinance the debt, which is
Speaker 5: about to hit this maturity wall, it's very difficult and
Speaker 5: expensive to do with elevated interest rates at with where
Speaker 5: they currently are today. So in order to refinance ad
Speaker 5: debt successfully, which is their main mandate along with preserving
Speaker 5: the integrity of the bond market, they are going to
Speaker 5: have to lower rates at some point soon. And we've
Speaker 5: already went through the rate hike cycle.
Speaker 4: Okay, actually started in twenty twenty two.
Speaker 5: Now we're leaving that rate cycle and we're transitioning into
Speaker 5: a fiscal dominated regime pretty much, with the need to
Speaker 5: refinance government debt, the need to fund these government deficits,
Speaker 5: and central banks are a slave to the governments pretty much.
Speaker 5: So the only path forward is by time as long
Speaker 5: as they can, and eventually they're going to have to
Speaker 5: cut rates significantly lower than where they are today in
Speaker 5: order to refinance that huge debt burden, because if they don't,
Speaker 5: what's happening is what has happened every time in the
Speaker 5: past throughout history. We're eventually going to get to a
Speaker 5: point in time, hit a threshold, a wall, where we'll
Speaker 5: have a financial crisis of some sort. And that's essentially
Speaker 5: going to be because there isn't enough liquidity in the
Speaker 5: system to refinance the debt.
Speaker 4: Yeah, And in order to get.
Speaker 5: More liquidity into the system, print, you get a print
Speaker 5: and in order to do proper QE quantitative easing, not
Speaker 5: this stealth QE thing that the whole narrative is surrounding
Speaker 5: these days, that this is not q E.
Speaker 4: Okay QE.
Speaker 5: In order to effectively do that and inject a huge
Speaker 5: amount of liquidity into the system, what they need to
Speaker 5: do is bring rates much lower than where they are
Speaker 5: today in order to do that. That's how they're going
Speaker 5: to get more liquidity into the system. And because the
Speaker 5: debt burden is so large, you need an equivalent ratio
Speaker 5: of liquidity in order to refinance the bulk of that
Speaker 5: debt okay, and the debt that's.
Speaker 1: An incredible amount of injection of capital just to be
Speaker 1: able to maintain that.
Speaker 4: So exactly can.
Speaker 1: You stand with the whole idea of hyperinflation? What most
Speaker 1: likely will come out of this is just more dollar devaluation.
Speaker 1: We'll talk about that versus on do you think that
Speaker 1: we get a rate cut late this year or do
Speaker 1: you think it comes next year?
Speaker 3: Well, there's no way the time it But I think
Speaker 3: we have to be realistic about the situation. The real
Speaker 3: economy is in free fall. Job losses are surging, credit
Speaker 3: card delinquencies at all time highs leverages at extremes right now,
Speaker 3: people are maxed out, they're broken, and you know, defaulty
Speaker 3: get levels that show us that there is a systemic collapse.
Speaker 3: Right economic activity is contracting, and I think it's just
Speaker 3: you know, more monetary policy is just talk because I
Speaker 3: think we have to be mindful that if we look
Speaker 3: at the past, like the two thousand and eight financial crisis.
Speaker 2: What did they do right?
Speaker 3: They did put Q in the motion, but they're just
Speaker 3: going to have to print more money. And I think
Speaker 3: central banks understand this dynamic perfectly. I think they're prepared
Speaker 3: and that's probably why they're buying gold, because they see
Speaker 3: what they're going to have to do. And going back
Speaker 3: to the emergency crisis of two thousand and eight, the
Speaker 3: pandemic shock of twenty twenty, whenever servicing the debt and
Speaker 3: the financial system became painful and growth stalled, and that's
Speaker 3: what we're seeing today. They had to respond the same
Speaker 3: way they did, slash rates to zero or near zero
Speaker 3: and unleash a massive money print out. So it's very possible.
Speaker 3: I mean, if you look at the yen carry trade,
Speaker 3: if you look at some of the other systemic.
Speaker 4: Issues going on, there is no other choice.
Speaker 3: You know, It's the only tool left they really have
Speaker 3: in their toolbox when conventional monetary policy fails. So I
Speaker 3: do think they're going to have some sort of emergency
Speaker 3: response and they're just going to have to inject all
Speaker 3: this money into the financial system. And evidence is clear
Speaker 3: pressure is building again right now. So high rates may
Speaker 3: feel responsible in the short term, but this is only
Speaker 3: temporary short term exactly, and when that breaking point does arrive,
Speaker 3: which it will and history shows that it always does,
Speaker 3: central banks are going to pivot hard. They're going to
Speaker 3: have to cut rates aggressively, and they're going to have
Speaker 3: to restart money printing because that's the only data to
Speaker 3: stop this economic contraction.
Speaker 1: Hey, guys, when you look at okay, so the big
Speaker 1: news today was basically we get RUG pulled out of
Speaker 1: the Senate again. And what that is in reference to
Speaker 1: is the Clarity Act, because this starts to compound on
Speaker 1: what's happening not only with the FED, but now just
Speaker 1: with the regulatory environment. Word is now that the Senate
Speaker 1: is not going to vote on this before the Senate
Speaker 1: recess August eighth, that's a major hit to the industry.
Speaker 1: We're seeing a little bit of a dip here in
Speaker 1: terms of the percentage dropping, even though there is a
Speaker 1: still kind of a very thin window that could happen
Speaker 1: in September.
Speaker 2: How much does this matter, guys?
Speaker 1: Does this really matter for the industry?
Speaker 4: Bedell? Would you like to go? I mean, I'm happy
Speaker 4: to in Okay.
Speaker 5: So it all depends on perspective here. So in the
Speaker 5: long term, it does matter because essentially what it's doing,
Speaker 5: it's removing these barriers and something we saw with the
Speaker 5: Telecommunications Act. You remove the walls, you have regulatory clarity institutions, businesses,
Speaker 5: they know what they can do, what they can do,
Speaker 5: and you have essentially this wall that's removed, and you
Speaker 5: can allow for investment in infrastructure, more development, use cases, utility,
Speaker 5: and it accelerates the growth and adoption the S curve.
Speaker 5: So that's basically what it does. So in the long term, yes,
Speaker 5: it's very important, it matters, but to debate whether it's
Speaker 5: going to happen or not is kind of silly because
Speaker 5: it is going to happen. Just like all innovation and
Speaker 5: technological advancements throughout history, they get regulated which means controlled,
Speaker 5: and they get adopted and the space grows into something
Speaker 5: even bigger over time. Time that time, By that time
Speaker 5: later on in the future, whether it's several years from
Speaker 5: now a decade, the return on investment from an investment perspective,
Speaker 5: and the opportunity begins to compress as the market matures.
Speaker 5: So in the long term it's important for the growth
Speaker 5: in the space. However, in the short term it's it's
Speaker 5: not important. It's it's basically they could utilize it in
Speaker 5: any direction to you know, serve whether it's insiders or
Speaker 5: institutions trading it and use that volatility and that narrative
Speaker 5: to essentially exit into strength. They could generate hype, they
Speaker 5: could dump it, they could short the market down when
Speaker 5: that happens. I mean, it's just a narrative in the
Speaker 5: short term.
Speaker 4: So to.
Speaker 5: Follow that very closely and base your investment decisions on
Speaker 5: that is not the right path to Yeah, is what
Speaker 5: I'm trying to say, because short term it doesn't matter.
Speaker 5: You know, it's going to go through at some point,
Speaker 5: you know, and to focus too much attention on it
Speaker 5: is simply can be somewhat a waste of energy, you know,
Speaker 5: because you don't know what's going to happen in the.
Speaker 1: Short Yeah, for sure. Well, I think the point that
Speaker 1: everybody's been looking at is that if this doesn't get done,
Speaker 1: does it give one the Democrats the potential to kind
Speaker 1: of run a muck with regulation and rulemaking down the
Speaker 1: road if in fact, we start to see a split
Speaker 1: Senate in House and or you know, a challenge in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty eight for the presidency. Who knows what's going
Speaker 1: to go on there. So I think this is still Listen,
Speaker 1: a lot of things are going to be playing out
Speaker 1: in the short term. I wanted to run in something
Speaker 1: past you guys, because this was data point that I
Speaker 1: had seen in reference. We were researching this around corporate
Speaker 1: profits because we were.
Speaker 2: Looking at YES and P.
Speaker 1: But in typical what we've found is that most US
Speaker 1: corporations are now coming in in profits that are hitting
Speaker 1: a record. It's like fourteen percent of GDP. This is
Speaker 1: continuing to rise. This would almost be counterproductive to your
Speaker 1: argument Van Dell, is that eventually consumer sentiment is going
Speaker 1: to set in and we're going to see this kind
Speaker 1: of impact on the market. But all these companies are
Speaker 1: still making just record profits.
Speaker 2: What do you make of this.
Speaker 5: Well, if everybody is using you know, credit cards and
Speaker 5: in debt, then yeah, profits are going to be up,
Speaker 5: you know. So it depends on the sector, it depends
Speaker 5: on the economy. But ultimately, if you look at the
Speaker 5: real economy.
Speaker 4: Okay, it's not in such good shape, you know. And
Speaker 4: you could see.
Speaker 5: That in the labor market, in the job market, which
Speaker 5: is a leading indicator actually, and you could see that
Speaker 5: in as my brother said, delinquencies. You could see it
Speaker 5: in the real world. You know, you actually get more
Speaker 5: insight talking to people on the street rather than reading
Speaker 5: the Financial Times. If you want to get a sense
Speaker 5: of what's happening in the economy and the job market
Speaker 5: of course too. And right now, I mean, yeah, earnings
Speaker 5: can be up. There's over investment in certain sectors, for example,
Speaker 5: a surge in capital investment in AI for example, which
Speaker 5: is temporarily keeping this bubble afloat and creating a boom
Speaker 5: within the market. And then you have the mag seven
Speaker 5: that is lifting up the rest of the market. And
Speaker 5: that's what a bubble is. And basically, well we're seeing
Speaker 5: the stock market. Stock market is a melt up phase.
Speaker 5: This is the blowoff top. It just hasn't blown off
Speaker 5: the top exactly, but this is it. Yeah, because this
Speaker 5: is not normal. Okay, if you've been around long enough,
Speaker 5: and I know you have.
Speaker 2: It's not normal.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's like any minute now, any minute
Speaker 1: we're going to.
Speaker 2: We're to start to see this.
Speaker 1: Varson, you put out a tweet right here because this
Speaker 1: I think is very relevant. That investors keep asking which
Speaker 1: asset replaces the dollar? Okay, and you guys can see
Speaker 1: a better question is which asset inherence the settlement of.
Speaker 2: Half the dollars dual role?
Speaker 1: And you look at that, and of course there's a
Speaker 1: handful of of of course we know tokens that could
Speaker 1: kind of go in this directions and companies. But do
Speaker 1: you think it's going to be a broader market or
Speaker 1: do you think it is going to narrow in on
Speaker 1: major projects like XRP, stellar, et cetera.
Speaker 2: Where do you see this?
Speaker 3: Well, there are a few things that go into that.
Speaker 3: I think central banks, you know, accumulating gold, reclassifying as
Speaker 3: Tier one asset collateral. That's very important. You know, every
Speaker 3: time we come on the show, we do talk about
Speaker 3: this because exactly we're the reference points. We need to
Speaker 3: remind ourselves, right, and why are they doing this right?
Speaker 3: They're preparing their methodically and deliberately preparing for a monetary
Speaker 3: reset that's going to require a stable, credible, universally accepted reference.
Speaker 4: Point of value.
Speaker 3: So I do think the broader commodity market is consolidating
Speaker 3: right now. We have seen gold and silver come down and.
Speaker 4: Some other things.
Speaker 3: But you know, I think it's going to be a
Speaker 3: basket of currencies, a basket of commodities that are going
Speaker 3: to be tied. And even in this kind of monetary reset,
Speaker 3: you know, trust alone is not enough. You need a
Speaker 3: global monetary reset to have the ability to move capital quickly.
Speaker 3: Efficiently and across borders, and I think that's where XRP
Speaker 3: comes in and plays a very critical role.
Speaker 1: I'm looking at I'm looking at the gold chart here.
Speaker 1: You mentioned that coming down verson, Okay, so is do
Speaker 1: you think four k is kind of the new bottom
Speaker 1: for this or do you feel like this could retrace more.
Speaker 3: It's possible it could retrace.
Speaker 4: I don't really know.
Speaker 3: I don't look at technicals as much as my brother does.
Speaker 3: But in these larger cycles, gold is really consolidating for
Speaker 3: the next life higher and it's anticipating things that we
Speaker 3: talked about as far as monetary policy. So it's going
Speaker 3: to go higher at some point.
Speaker 4: We don't know.
Speaker 3: But right now you can see lots of repatriation of
Speaker 3: physical gold. You know, they're getting ready for something. So
Speaker 3: central banks are responding exactly as you would expect, and
Speaker 3: not just central banks, very smart individuals, very wealthy individuals too.
Speaker 2: You know, I'm hearing.
Speaker 1: More and more gold investors coming out talking about the
Speaker 1: purpose of anytime we see a dip like what we
Speaker 1: have seen with gold and silver down to four k
Speaker 1: on gold, is that this is absolutely the next point
Speaker 1: to start another DCA.
Speaker 3: You know, you should always you should always be every month.
Speaker 3: I think it's prudent for individuals and investors alike to
Speaker 3: be putting a little bit of their earnings into precious metals,
Speaker 3: something that's real, something that's tangible, something that can't be diluted,
Speaker 3: and something that is gradually being re integrated back into
Speaker 3: the monetary system. For instance, even silver, which was once
Speaker 3: a form of money, which I still think it is.
Speaker 3: It has its use cases. Forget the industrial side, but
Speaker 3: when you're talking about sovereignty, you know it still is money.
Speaker 3: At the same time, Central Bank of Saudi Arabia, central
Speaker 3: Bank of Mexico, central Bank of Russia recently in the
Speaker 3: last like year or so, created these strategic reserves to
Speaker 3: accumulate silver. Right, that's not reported in the US, and
Speaker 3: if I'm not mistaken, Trump administration Andy Sheckman shared this
Speaker 3: with US as well, where they have this reserve now
Speaker 3: for strategic rare earth minerals, but silver was in there
Speaker 3: as well.
Speaker 2: What do you okay?
Speaker 1: So between the two of you, and this isn't financial
Speaker 1: advice for anybody that's listening entertainment only, but you're building
Speaker 1: a portfolio today, and let's just say you could quantify
Speaker 1: this on a magnitude of whatever you want to scale
Speaker 1: it as. But let's just start with ten thousand dollars. Okay,
Speaker 1: today you're in a ten thousand dollars you haven't been
Speaker 1: in the market. You've been looking for this bottom that
Speaker 1: everybody's been talking about. Maybe it's bitcoin at sixty four
Speaker 1: sixty five K, maybe it's XRP at near a dollar.
Speaker 1: Out of a ten thousand dollars portfolio, how would you
Speaker 1: split that up in terms of diversified components? Vandel You
Speaker 1: pick one person, you pick one.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 5: So so the way I would look at it, of course,
Speaker 5: is you have to ask you consider your age, your
Speaker 5: risk tolerance, your time horizon.
Speaker 4: These are critical facts.
Speaker 1: Let's go with a forty year old, okay, with average risk,
Speaker 1: because I think there's a lot of people right now,
Speaker 1: you know, in the market.
Speaker 2: You know average risk. If I look at our own you.
Speaker 1: Know, listeners and viewer demographics, that forty year old is
Speaker 1: the sweet spot.
Speaker 5: Yeah, and time horizon time because matter twenty years, okay.
Speaker 1: Going to sixty where they retire.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 5: So what I would do is, this is something I
Speaker 5: learned that concentrated portfolios actually perform extremely well compared to
Speaker 5: portfolios that are spread out too thin, you actually get
Speaker 5: diluted returns okay, interesting, rather than better performance. And essentially,
Speaker 5: you want to have something that you preserve your wealth,
Speaker 5: that has.
Speaker 4: That is timeless. Okay.
Speaker 5: So I would choose precious metals for a small percentage
Speaker 5: of that portfolio. So for example, two thousand or three
Speaker 5: thousand dollars in something like gold, okay, you see what
Speaker 5: I mean. And then the remainding percent of that ten
Speaker 5: thousand dollars I would put in something that has long
Speaker 5: term growth potential okay, that has huge asymmetric upside, a
Speaker 5: very favorable risk to reward profile, and I would get
Speaker 5: involved in something that is not over extended from a
Speaker 5: valuation standpoint.
Speaker 4: Okay.
Speaker 5: So for example, the stock market equities market, it's in
Speaker 5: a parabolic move as we speak. It's in the melt
Speaker 5: up phase. But if you're a long term investor, now
Speaker 5: is not the time to be getting involved in.
Speaker 4: The stock market. You're late, okay, you.
Speaker 5: Should have been in several years ago, five years, eighteen, yeah,
Speaker 5: eighteen months ago exactly. Now you could get in. It
Speaker 5: will run probably for another several months, maybe a year
Speaker 5: if you're lucky, but it's going to have its correction
Speaker 5: at some point, and it could be quite significant. So
Speaker 5: identifying something that is still significantly undervalued actually gives you
Speaker 5: the best risk to reward ratio and the most asymmetric upside.
Speaker 5: And you want something that has long term growth potential.
Speaker 5: So if you were looking at digital assets, for example,
Speaker 5: that do have that, it comes down to asset selection
Speaker 5: because not everything is going to rise over time, and
Speaker 5: certainly most of these digital assets are likely not going
Speaker 5: to be here in the next five or ten years
Speaker 5: because they're not going to be relevant. So I would
Speaker 5: actually look at something like XRP, something like XLM that
Speaker 5: have huge amounts of liquidity on their networks, that are notable,
Speaker 5: that have real use cases and utility, because that increases
Speaker 5: the long term potential of success over many years in
Speaker 5: the decades, and they have growth potential. They have institutional
Speaker 5: interest and backing, so it means they're not likely going
Speaker 5: to disappear tomorrow because of some event, and they have
Speaker 5: longstanding history of surviving multiple bull and bear markets.
Speaker 4: So this is a very critical fact.
Speaker 1: Put in any ethereum or bitcoin in that same portfolio,
Speaker 1: or would you stay strictly on.
Speaker 2: XRP and XLM.
Speaker 5: Well, that goes back to your risks to get yours,
Speaker 5: don't worry. Yeah, that goes back to the risk tolerance
Speaker 5: because you see, bitcoin has already made made most of
Speaker 5: its its moves over the past decade. So you can
Speaker 5: still have a good performing year and cycle with bitcoin.
Speaker 5: But because bitcoin has made phenomenal gains over the past decade,
Speaker 5: as a market or an asset matures, the returns begin
Speaker 5: to compress.
Speaker 4: This is natural.
Speaker 5: Every investor knows this, okay, So if your goal is
Speaker 5: to have outsized performance, it's not going to be in bitcoin.
Speaker 5: That's why bitcoin is being used right now by a
Speaker 5: lot of wealthy individuals just to preserve their wealth through
Speaker 5: these cycles. And they don't hold forever. They de risk
Speaker 5: when it's over extended, they buy back when it's lower,
Speaker 5: and they keep reaccumulating and repeating the process. But this
Speaker 5: is a wealth preservation mechanism. It's not essentially I'm going
Speaker 5: to create wealth with Yeah, so I would go for
Speaker 5: XRP or XLM.
Speaker 4: Instick.
Speaker 1: Consider that verson all right, So we got gold XRP,
Speaker 1: XLM with Vendel.
Speaker 3: I have a few things I'd like to share.
Speaker 2: Well, Frank go ahead.
Speaker 3: My friend Edo and I we did a podcast warning
Speaker 3: people about, for instance, the IPO SpaceX Right.
Speaker 2: Oh that was what a mess?
Speaker 3: Yeah, well we were right about that. And you know,
Speaker 3: we were trying to tell people and before this happened,
Speaker 3: that the IPOs are going to be liquidity events for
Speaker 3: the insiders, not investment opportunities fires at those prices. So
Speaker 3: we were telling everyone not to get caught up into hype,
Speaker 3: step back, and of course, protect yourself with assets that
Speaker 3: have proven they have value. For instance, and in my portfolio,
Speaker 3: I'm very aggressive with a few digital assets. But to
Speaker 3: answer your question, you know, gold solves one problem and
Speaker 3: a settlement bridge is going to solve another. For me,
Speaker 3: gold is how I preserve my wealth. It's a superior
Speaker 3: natural store of value.
Speaker 2: And you like physical gold, right of course.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: And it's all I buy, and I use cash to
Speaker 3: buy it too, and a little gray area so there's
Speaker 3: no digital trace if they ever try to come after me.
Speaker 3: I'm just kidding, but you know, XRP. It's also a
Speaker 3: very important tool. And if I may share a theory
Speaker 3: I have with you, okay, audience, the reason I have
Speaker 3: many investment standpoints on why I own XRP. But I
Speaker 3: have a structural theory on why XRP in the next decade,
Speaker 3: maybe twenty years, could become the most liquid asset in
Speaker 3: the financial system.
Speaker 4: Wow.
Speaker 3: And we tie it back to how the dollar got
Speaker 3: to become the most liquid asset in the financial system.
Speaker 3: And it became the most liquid asset because it was
Speaker 3: the primary settlement instrument for all evidential obligations.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 3: And that's where settlement concentrated and liquidity was the result. Right,
Speaker 3: And that's why the dollar is the most liquid instrument today.
Speaker 3: That privilege now is being challenged and it's under pressure
Speaker 3: for the first time in a very long time. Now
Speaker 3: we are moving into a digital economy, a multipolar world
Speaker 3: where no single national currency is going to perform the
Speaker 3: role of the dollar, a duel role where it carries
Speaker 3: the political risk, the operational cost. It's very expensive now
Speaker 3: to do trade with dollars because of the debasement trade
Speaker 3: as well. So the settlement demand is not going to disappear.
Speaker 3: It's migrating, and that's what we see happening. It's going
Speaker 3: to look for the least amount of friction and lowest
Speaker 3: political entankment. Entanglement with the United States and that's again
Speaker 3: where XRP sits at that exact point where the migration
Speaker 3: is beginning, and with stable coins now as more regulated
Speaker 3: digital dollars become programmable in this crypto ecosystem, as more
Speaker 3: AI agents select the most efficient path without caring about
Speaker 3: the narrative, and this human emotion sentiment with the political
Speaker 3: risk gradually being reduced, and the cost of the old
Speaker 3: rails again keeps rising because of fragmentation. So where am
Speaker 3: I going with this? The more settlement that is going
Speaker 3: to happen through XRP, it's not about replacing the dollar
Speaker 3: as a reserve, but it's going to absorb a lot
Speaker 3: of that demand for settlement, and that's what's going to
Speaker 3: eventually result in a restructuring of the isolater on down
Speaker 3: the road. So it's the fact that the asset XRP,
Speaker 3: as an investment standpoint, I'm sorry, from an investment standpoint,
Speaker 3: sits in the middle of where these new flows will
Speaker 3: eventually have to come through, right, So it's in my portfolio.
Speaker 3: I'm very aggressive with XRP. I've done incredibly well since
Speaker 3: we got in a eighteen cents. Yes, the market feels
Speaker 3: boring right now, it seems like there's no sentiment anymore,
Speaker 3: and that's okay. You know, that's when you should be
Speaker 3: paying attention. Really, And I think that does tie into
Speaker 3: the Clarity Act which you mentioned earlier, because in my view,
Speaker 3: you know, the Clarity Act is truly theater. And if
Speaker 3: I may also go on another rant and explain this,
Speaker 3: is that right. Well, the reason I say the Clarity
Speaker 3: Acts theater is because Bendela's explained this many times. Also,
Speaker 3: we have seen patterns in the past with major bills
Speaker 3: and major headlines that get past these milestones where they
Speaker 3: just keep the process alive just enough to generate retail
Speaker 3: sentiment and excitement, and they used as a liquidity exit
Speaker 3: for the large players. For anyone who's really paying attention
Speaker 3: to the evolution of money, it's undeniable that finances are
Speaker 3: going on chain, assets are now being tokenized, transactions are
Speaker 3: settling in seconds, and Ripple XRPH, Deellar, XLM and a
Speaker 3: few other major players. They've been building the utility, the compliance,
Speaker 3: the infrastructure, so they're not really waiting for permission. In
Speaker 3: many ways, they're the ones writing the rules for the
Speaker 3: new financial system. So I would tell everyone to ignore
Speaker 3: the noise. The headlines because it really is going to
Speaker 3: keep oscillating between the hype and the disappointment for the
Speaker 3: short term price action.
Speaker 1: Yep, yeah, well, I think to your point is what
Speaker 1: we have seen around this has been such a yo
Speaker 1: yo of regulatory.
Speaker 2: Highs and lows.
Speaker 1: I mean, here's another one that happened this week where
Speaker 1: you know, the Senate was kind of pushed by Trump
Speaker 1: and then now all of a sudden, you've got all
Speaker 1: these Russian sanction elements that have just all of a
Speaker 1: sudden shown up and have now taken you know, kind
Speaker 1: of the limelight in terms of whether or not claarity
Speaker 1: even gets voted on at the Senate level. So this
Speaker 1: is just, to your point, theater at its highest level.
Speaker 1: And of course this only ops in because we have
Speaker 1: continued to see versuson the amount of banks. I think
Speaker 1: the banks are in on this.
Speaker 2: Of course, they're part of the theater.
Speaker 3: The core cases and all the headlines are designed to
Speaker 3: delay things, of course, but it's buying valuable time for them,
Speaker 3: if you think about it, because it gives time for
Speaker 3: more and more countries around the world to test dedollarization.
Speaker 3: It gives more time for them to buy more gold,
Speaker 3: right for big funds to keep stacking real assets and
Speaker 3: test these new settlement systems that we're talking about. It
Speaker 3: gives more time for the multipolar world to really take
Speaker 3: shape before the official rules catch up with what's already
Speaker 3: been decided. And to your point, the banks are involved,
Speaker 3: you know, the people at the highest levels of government
Speaker 3: and the financial institutions, they know this is coming. They're
Speaker 3: quietly doing this and they don't have to announce it
Speaker 3: on television.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: The Clarity Act is simply the moment where the how
Speaker 3: do I say this, the rule book is going to
Speaker 3: finally match and catch up to what's the work we've
Speaker 3: already done, what's been decided.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 3: So in my bigger picture and view, long term view
Speaker 3: for this, you know, patience is really our edge right now,
Speaker 3: and you know, taking a step back look at that
Speaker 3: bigger picture, it really helps you have this ease of
Speaker 3: mind where you don't have to constantly worry about the
Speaker 3: ups and downs in the market.
Speaker 1: What do you guys make of what's happening right now
Speaker 1: in Japan because you've got net dollar shorts being held
Speaker 1: by Japanese retail accounts. This is like quadrupled in June
Speaker 1: quadrupled in terms of truly going at and this.
Speaker 2: Is the retail side of net dollar shorts.
Speaker 1: What does this do Because if Japan continues on this track,
Speaker 1: We've done a couple of videos on the expansion of
Speaker 1: Japan's digit ecosystem. Their prime minister is all in on
Speaker 1: literally you name it XRP to the Japanese stable coin
Speaker 1: that's now being utilized across most of their retail ecosystems.
Speaker 1: Plus they just dumped their tax system from fifty to
Speaker 1: twenty on crypto gains.
Speaker 2: That's a pretty big leap and it's very fast moving.
Speaker 2: What do you guys think, Well.
Speaker 5: I think Japan is going to eventually run into a
Speaker 5: run into an issue. That's ultimately how I see this.
Speaker 5: That's the destination I think they're heading to, and I
Speaker 5: think they're going to have to respond with some sort
Speaker 5: of central bank intervention. And ultimately that's how I see it.
Speaker 5: So because and it's simply because of the nature of
Speaker 5: the financial system and the debt based mechanics of this system,
Speaker 5: eventually they're going to run into some problem and they're
Speaker 5: going to have to step in and inject liquidity into
Speaker 5: the system.
Speaker 4: That's how much the only direction I see it going.
Speaker 1: Yeah, how much of an impact do you think that
Speaker 1: has on the US securities market?
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that that could spill over, but then
Speaker 5: we would see a response over here in the West
Speaker 5: as well, So I think it would be contained largely
Speaker 5: through central bank intervention and injecting liquidity into the markets.
Speaker 4: But if you're if are you referring.
Speaker 5: To the reverse end carry trade.
Speaker 1: Over The point is is that you've got retail now
Speaker 1: shorting the dollar in Japan, and this is a this
Speaker 1: is a significant amount. If that is happening on shorting
Speaker 1: the dollar, you've got the reverse carry trade maybe fully
Speaker 1: intact again, but this has been so close to executing
Speaker 1: forever and they always come in and bail it out
Speaker 1: at the end.
Speaker 4: That's what I'm saying.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Verson, how do they how does this play out?
Speaker 4: Well?
Speaker 3: Like I said earlier, you know, one of the catalysts
Speaker 3: for not just XRP, but for the entire reverse the
Speaker 3: unwind of the carry train is that it's getting more
Speaker 3: and more expensive to use these legacy systems. Yep, right,
Speaker 3: And that's the real problem here. How long can they
Speaker 3: buy time? You know, that's the risk now, of course,
Speaker 3: to what a lot of people have been talking about
Speaker 3: is if the Bank of Japan accelerates its tightening or
Speaker 3: so my brother said, central bank intervention, it's going to
Speaker 3: force rapid appreciation of the end right for sure. But
Speaker 3: there is deleveraging across global markets, so that's an important factor.
Speaker 3: Sudden liquidity squeezes, volatility spikes. Now that's where some people speculate,
Speaker 3: and I'm one of them too, that it could be
Speaker 3: a catalyst for where this neutral high speed bridge asset
Speaker 3: can help in this kind of environment, and that would
Speaker 3: explain why these relationships between the Bank of Japan, the
Speaker 3: Prime Minister of Japan in the past saying that by
Speaker 3: twenty twenty five, I think everyone remembers this that all
Speaker 3: banks in Japan will use XRP YEP, very possible. They
Speaker 3: already are using it.
Speaker 4: Well.
Speaker 1: The partnership with Sony and Sony in general. Will you
Speaker 1: look at what's going on with SBI essentially the JP
Speaker 1: Morgan of Japan. All of this has been fast tracked
Speaker 1: in the last three months, and to me, when you
Speaker 1: move regulation that fast with everybody on board, there's something up.
Speaker 1: Something is up in Japan. I don't know if they
Speaker 1: have a plan coming out of this or how they
Speaker 1: plan to do the unwind. But there is something up.
Speaker 3: There's a time and place for all of it.
Speaker 5: Well, yeah, I was going to say, as for the dollars,
Speaker 5: specifically the DXY, I actually see it rising in the
Speaker 5: not too distant future, later this year.
Speaker 4: That's what I anticipate.
Speaker 5: Yeah, so known this is from a technical structure. Okay,
Speaker 5: So from a technical perspective, it seems to be breaking
Speaker 5: out of this triangle that it's been in, and it
Speaker 5: aligns perfectly with where we are in the late stages.
Speaker 4: Of the credit cycle.
Speaker 5: So the DXY, I anticipate it is going to strengthen,
Speaker 5: strengthen a little bit more. And when that does happen,
Speaker 5: essentially what that means is there's a global contraction in
Speaker 5: credit in the world. That's basically what's happening when the
Speaker 5: dollar strengthens. So I see that happening before it eventually
Speaker 5: rolls over and comes down all the way to maybe
Speaker 5: ninety two ninety in the low nineties.
Speaker 4: That's how I see it.
Speaker 5: And when it does come down, I actually anticipate that
Speaker 5: would align perfectly with liquidity being injected into the system
Speaker 5: and with rates coming down significantly. But I do think
Speaker 5: the dollar is going to stay consolidating and strengthen before
Speaker 5: that happens?
Speaker 1: Well, its strengthening right there, as you can see the
Speaker 1: Dixie on the chart holding at one O one three,
Speaker 1: and that's been driving up for quite a while too.
Speaker 1: So maybe to your point, you think it could go
Speaker 1: higher than that.
Speaker 2: Let me go to the weekly.
Speaker 4: Yes, I do. I think it's going to go higher
Speaker 4: than that.
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, you look right here back in when
Speaker 1: is this June of twenty five, we were setting at
Speaker 1: what cheese?
Speaker 3: Wow?
Speaker 5: Well, you know what's interesting if you actually look at
Speaker 5: the DX WYE chart, pretty much every time the dollar
Speaker 5: has reached.
Speaker 4: Its high, its top.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that was actually when bitcoin topped, So interesting correlation there, yes,
Speaker 5: for sure. But I do anticipate that to happen again
Speaker 5: and eventually the dollar of the DX why to roll over,
Speaker 5: and I think that's going to all line.
Speaker 2: Last point I want to hit at.
Speaker 1: You know, for a lot of people right now, they
Speaker 1: have been waiting for this last capitulation phase. Do you
Speaker 1: get I think we are in it right now, or
Speaker 1: at least the beginning of it. Do you think that
Speaker 1: we have begun the last capitulation phase? Or do you
Speaker 1: feel like this most recent acceleration from fifty nine k
Speaker 1: on bitcoin up to where it is right now sixty
Speaker 1: four or so his sixty five this week, where would
Speaker 1: you stand verson?
Speaker 3: Honestly, I think we could go lower. And the only
Speaker 3: reason I say that is really because the geopolitical factor, yeah,
Speaker 3: which is widely unreported in my view. How you know,
Speaker 3: it's systemic to today's markets. People don't talk enough about
Speaker 3: the supply chains breaking down at the end of the day.
Speaker 3: There could be a liquidity crisis because I think more
Speaker 3: people are going to worry about putting food on their
Speaker 3: table than trading the markets. And you know, my final
Speaker 3: point would be, really, I don't know. I think we
Speaker 3: could go lower, and that's why I do have cash
Speaker 3: on the sidelines. But for anybody out there chasing quick
Speaker 3: returns and reacting to data headlines, that's a mistake, you know.
Speaker 3: I think people need to about long term, yes, because
Speaker 3: real wealth is built slowly over months, sometimes even years.
Speaker 3: For me, it was a few years and it really
Speaker 3: changed my life. I didn't have instant gratification, So just
Speaker 3: that long term thinking is really what works today. The
Speaker 3: transition is obviously being very volatile, but if you have
Speaker 3: a clear direction of where the signal is instead of
Speaker 3: the noise, then you know, I think you'll be okay,
Speaker 3: you'll event very dangerous times right.
Speaker 2: Now, Yeah, no doubt Van Dell.
Speaker 1: When you look at timing here, now we know, all right,
Speaker 1: we could be in a phase for capitulation into these markets,
Speaker 1: including coming off the S and P five hundred, which
Speaker 1: is where we could see rotation of capital coming in.
Speaker 1: Would you put that in twenty seven, twenty eight on
Speaker 1: a presidential year or timing wise now is going to
Speaker 1: get critical?
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think the new bull market will actually to
Speaker 5: begin in twenty twenty seven, and I think it would
Speaker 5: be even stronger for the outperformance will be even stronger
Speaker 5: for quality digital assets and the broader crypto market in
Speaker 5: twenty twenty seven and even into twenty twenty eight.
Speaker 4: That's how I see it.
Speaker 5: And simply because believe they or not, Paul, the cycles
Speaker 5: have not deviated from their historical patterns. They're following the
Speaker 5: same the same patterns and if you actually look, I
Speaker 5: use a lot of moving averages to determine the overall
Speaker 5: direction and the trend of the market and get a
Speaker 5: sense of momentum and what's interesting even if you look
Speaker 5: at XRP, all these other quality digital assets XLM, most
Speaker 5: of the crypto market are trading below their medium term
Speaker 5: and long term trends, So they're moving averages, simple moving averages.
Speaker 5: They're trading below one hundred day moving averages. They're trading
Speaker 5: below the two hundred week moving average, below the fifty
Speaker 5: week moving average. This means they are still in a
Speaker 5: stage four, which is a declining phase of their cycle.
Speaker 5: They're trading below their thirty week moving average, so the
Speaker 5: down trend has not finalized. And if you take the
Speaker 5: context of the macro excuse me, the term election cycle,
Speaker 5: and where we are in the credit cycle, what's interesting
Speaker 5: is the every midterm election year has historically been one
Speaker 5: of the weakest years for the equities market, including.
Speaker 4: The crypto market.
Speaker 5: Okay, now what's interesting is every midterm election year, going
Speaker 5: right into the midterm elections, you could see Bitcoin in
Speaker 5: the crypto market has dumped further. So I think it's
Speaker 5: very premature to conclude that, Okay, this is the bottom,
Speaker 5: because what we have seen so far has been sure
Speaker 5: a decline in price. Broadly speaking, in the crypto market,
Speaker 5: SARPID down more than seventy percent, Bitcoin down more than
Speaker 5: fifty percent, but we have not seen a full price capitulation,
Speaker 5: final flush out. We have not seen that yet. So
Speaker 5: between now and going into the November midterm election and
Speaker 5: the end of the year, what that means is we
Speaker 5: still have a window where a lot can happen in between,
Speaker 5: and historically it has happened where we have seen further
Speaker 5: price drops in the midterm election November, and even if
Speaker 5: you look in the historical chart with the equities market,
Speaker 5: historically September and August excuse me, August September, we typically
Speaker 5: see a correction in the equities market in midterm election years. Now,
Speaker 5: if that happens, whether it's a ten percent, twenty percent,
Speaker 5: if that happens later this year, what do you expect
Speaker 5: will happen with the crypto market? Even if it is
Speaker 5: already down, it will come down even lower. And my
Speaker 5: moving averages I found every bitcoin cycle crypto cycle, the
Speaker 5: three hundred day moving average was touched okay for bitcoin,
Speaker 5: which means we could fall even further to fifty four thousand,
Speaker 5: between forty eight fifty four thousand in that range, it's possible,
Speaker 5: and we could also go lower if something happens that.
Speaker 4: We don't aren't expecting.
Speaker 5: But basically what I'm what I'm saying, Paul, is there
Speaker 5: are two types of capitulations. There's a price capitulation which
Speaker 5: we have not seen yet, and then there's a time
Speaker 5: based capitulation. And by the time we get to the
Speaker 5: end of the year Q one January twenty twenty seven,
Speaker 5: if we have not had a price capitulation, then we
Speaker 5: can reasonably conclude that, Okay, this one, the timing could be, yes,
Speaker 5: exactly the case, but we still have time. And every
Speaker 5: midterm election we have dumped further, so I expect that
Speaker 5: to happen, and I expected to bring the market down
Speaker 5: slightly lower than where they currently at currently are right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, ninety days essentially to midterms, guys. So here we
Speaker 1: are end of July, going into early August and November.
Speaker 1: Early November, we've got midterms hitting. That is exactly the
Speaker 1: timing here. So this next ninety days is going to
Speaker 1: be super volatile.
Speaker 2: So get ready.
Speaker 1: We're going to have the guys back on to talk
Speaker 1: more about this in a few months to kind of
Speaker 1: cover up and see if we were right or not.
Speaker 2: So you guys know what.
Speaker 4: We could also expect a relief rally.
Speaker 5: I just want to say exactly, which is typical during
Speaker 5: late stages of.
Speaker 3: The cycle, so accumulation phase of the liquidity cycle too.
Speaker 3: It's the precise setup for some sort of relief rally
Speaker 3: or explosive leg higher well.
Speaker 1: And if you're playing short term markets, those are always
Speaker 1: good to participate it. But if you're looking at long term,
Speaker 1: it's just another blip on the chart, exactly.
Speaker 3: You know so well, you need a two tier strategy
Speaker 3: as far as crypto if I make sure, this could
Speaker 3: be very beneficial to everyone. So I have a three
Speaker 3: tier strategy where it consists of assets that are outside
Speaker 3: the system gold.
Speaker 2: Silver, cash, et cetera.
Speaker 3: I do have a tier two where it's specifically my
Speaker 3: high conviction strategy for the real wave ahead right for
Speaker 3: a bull market that will ignite when rates do collapse.
Speaker 3: And these are my core long term holdings which I
Speaker 3: don't touch. I've been holding them for many years now,
Speaker 3: xrpx ALMHBR, algorand sahx VLO quant and a few others.
Speaker 3: And I have tactical opportunities too where I concentrate a
Speaker 3: large amount in maybe two assets. In this case it's
Speaker 3: SAHX at VELO, and I wait for the return of
Speaker 3: liquidity to flood the system. Market starts to have this
Speaker 3: asymmetric upside, and I cash out ninety percent paid axes
Speaker 3: and rotate it.
Speaker 2: Be done, yeah, rotate around.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and it works.
Speaker 3: It works. So I think everybody needs to be not
Speaker 3: just sibling sitting idly by and letting inflation outpace how
Speaker 3: fast you can earn the money. You need to actively
Speaker 3: engage in the market if you're trading so long term
Speaker 3: and short term.
Speaker 1: Big time guys, A lot's happening here. We will be
Speaker 1: covering this in so much more on the podcast, of course.
Speaker 1: Verssan Vandel, thanks so much for coming in today. We
Speaker 1: appreciate it.
Speaker 4: Thank you, Thank you. Paul