Speaker 1: Fading the Public has went sixty one percent for free
in this video. So far this season, I've got five
public sides for week eleven, covering both Sunday and Monday
night football, and also a public underdog alert. All that
information coming up free with analysis right here, right now.
Hi's a Steve merrillwager Talk dot Com right back here
on wager Talk TV. And last week the public went
three and three overall, which is actually a victory for
the public, because I believe what was a fading went
nine and three to two weeks before that. Overall this
season now twenty eight and eighteen, Fading the Public here
free in this video sixty one percent overall. And there
are five public plays this week for week number eleven,
and it covers your early game in Madrid, Spain, your
Sunday night game, your Monday night football game. Let's get
right to it. Let's start that early game in Madrid, Spain,
the first game ever in Spain, first NFL game ever,
and it is not my Washington Commanders against the Miami Dolphins,
and not surprisingly the Dolphins or the public side here. Well,
actually I should say surprisingly, because the Dolphins going into
last week were just two and seven straight up. The
Buffalo Bills were a heavy public favorite last week, and
of course what happens while Miami comes out never in
doubt and routes the Buffalo Bills from start to finish
easy thirty to thirteen win. Both of these teams are
three and seven straight up. They're both having miserable seasons.
Yet the public has now switched and after fading the Dolphins,
they're jumping on the Dolphins this week. But that's not
a surprise because the other really public play, in fact,
the most public played last week the public was correct on,
and that was the Detroit Lions, fading the Commanders as
they lost their fifth straight game in a row, both
straight up and against the spread. However, these European games
can often be a bit of a reset, a bit
of a random game, and you almost got to wonder
if it's to let down spot for Miami after the
big home dog win against division rival Buffalo, after just
playing Baltimore Thursday Night football before that, could they possibly
come in a little flat here to this trip to Spain.
And meanwhile, the Commanders probably are happy to get out
of the country after five straight losses. Dan Quinn also
defensive minded head coach Dan Quinn is going to start
calling the defensive plays this week. We'll see if that
makes a difference. I'm not in her try to back
the Commanders, you guys know, I've been fading them all
season long with success and mainly because we thought they'd
have a bad season. We had an under nine and
a half season wins play, which is very close to cash,
and in fact, the only way we don't win that
now is if the Commanders win each of their final
seven games. Commanders have to go seven to oh. If
they go six and one, we cash are under tickets,
so it's pretty much a lock. However, I think the
Commanders might get a win this week. You know, we
did take a few shots with them a few weeks
ago against Kansas City in that game. Also, I believe
the Seattle game Daniels got hurt. Those you can't read
much into that, and they're learning to play now with
Marcus Mariote, who had an excellent game against the Detroit
Lions offensively last week, and the Dolphins are still a
really bad defensive team. Commanders have been bad defensively as well,
so the over is probably also worth a look here.
In fact, I leen Commanders and I lean over. I
think the Commander team total over twenty two and a
half is probably the best way to attack this game.
But this is a spot in which you can probably
look to fade the public. I'm not sure Miami deserves
to be laying points against anybody after that big win.
And by the way, it's two and a half in
most spots, juiced, there are some threes starting to show.
So if you like the Commanders, I would wait. You
might get a plus three by kickoff. That's the early game,
nine thirty am Eastern Sunday morning on NFL Network. All right,
your other game on the daytime card at one o'clock
Eastern is the LA Chargers minus three. Another public side
the LA Chargers minus three, as the public is looking
to fade. The Jacksonville Jaguars are in a bit of
a tail spin here in recent weeks, losing three of
their last four straight up, and they have failed to
cover every game. They had a push against the Raiders
depending on your line, but they failed to cover and
the other three losses going zero to three straight up
and against the spread. Meanwhile, the Chargers three straight wins
for their last five. We had a best bet winner
on them Sunday Night football against the Steelers from my
clients at wager talk dot com. Also gave you the
Chargers in the Sunday Night video free last week, and
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I truly asked. Takes two seconds. So yeah. The Chargers
in excellent current form here could be a bit of
a letdown spot though, traveling cross country off the Sunday
Night win against Pittsburgh and then back home next week
for divisional game. Actually in two weeks a bye week
on deck, So coming off the big win and a
bye week on deck, they might overlook this game. And
the Chargers still have some injuries on offensive line. Joe alt,
the best one of the best line in the league,
is out for the rest of the season. This looks
like a little bit of a by low spot for
Jacksonville team that has been capable this year. I know
they win against Kansas City was misleading, but they did
still start four and one this year, including wins against Houston,
San Francisco and Kansas City close loss against Seattle. Wheels
have come off a bit recently, but even the last
two games a win against the Raiders and a seven
point loss against Houston on the road, they've been headed
of and at the Chargers coming a little bit flat here,
which is possible could be a spot in which Jacksonville
sneaks out with the wins. So you might want to
look to fade the public in this one. It's also
an early kickoff at one eastern. That's ten am Charger time.
I'd probably fade the Chargers here minus three. Take a
look at the Jags plus three and they fade the
public situation. That's at one eastern. All right, your next
game is probably the most public play this week. It
goes at four o'clock Eastern. The late afternoon card and
that's the San Francisco forty nine Ers. Of the five
games I've given you, I think the forty nine ers
are probably the most public play overall this week, and
that line is currently minus three minus a dollar fifteen.
So here again, it opened one, it's up to three
because brock Party is expected to be back this week
after being out for several games. Wouldn't be surprised to
see this game close three and a half. See, if
you like the forty nine ers, you probably want to
grab the minus three now. If you like the Cardinals weight,
you should have some three and a halves available by
the late kickoff Sunday afternoon. Set's been a better quarterback,
by the way for the Cardinals, and I do think
perty'll give the forty nine ers offense a little bit
of a spark. So I do like the over in
this game, over forty eight and a half is in play.
So San Francisco Arizona over forty eight and a half
I think makes sense. But it should also be a
focus spot for San Francisco. And you know we don't
just blindly fade the public. I mentioned last week how
the lines were the most public side. They easily won
by twenty two points. I didn't disagree. I was in
no hurry to be on the Commanders last week. Same
thing here, forty nine Ers losing two of their last
three games. They're the better team and the Cardinals while
they've been competitive. They upset the Cowboys on Monday Night Football,
competitive against the Colts and Packers before that. Wals kind
of came off last week at twenty two point loss
at Seattle despite having a plus one turnover margin. That's
always a big red flag for me when a team
is plus in the turnover margin and still loses by
twenty two points and fails to cover. I like San
Francisco in this spot. We don't blindly fade the public.
I would agree with them here, but I only like
the Niners. Of that key number of minus three gets
up to three and a half, there's probably less value
at that point. But take a look at San Francisco
also the over forty eight and a half. This is
when I would agree with the public, and the forty
nine Ers do look like the most public side here
in week eleven, right, let's look at the Sunday night
game now Detroit and Philadelphia and Ding Ding red flag alert,
this is your public underdog this week, and look, Fading
public Dogs. I think started what six and one this season,
Now it's like six and four because we've lost the
public is won three in a row, but it's still
sixty percent fading them and long term, this is still
one of my favorite subsets. As you loyal viewers know,
there's lots of different ways to use this public information.
And by the way, if you're new to the video,
we don't just blindly fade the public. In general. I
don't like to play really bad teams and that's often
what you get, so I usually kind of scratch those off,
and other situations like San Francisco coming off a loss,
they might be focused, so we kind of scratch those
off as well. But one spot I love and it
always makes my short list is fading public dogs, and
the reason being is that the public is normally on
favorites and overs, so whenever you see them on an
underdog or unders with totals, it catches your eye. And
the other nice thing about fading public dogs is by definition,
when we're taking a favorite, we're getting the better team,
so we're usually gett a quo and that's definitely the
case here at the defending Super Bowl champs Philadelphia Eagles
seven to two straight up. And by the way, they
were the public dog last week in Monday Night Football
and they cashed in one out right against the Packers
on the road. So I find it a little ironic,
a little surprising that all of a sudden they go
from cashing as a public dog on national TV to
be in a fade play. The Lions, as I mentioned earlier,
were the most public player of the week last week
against the Commanders, so I guess the public did well
with both these teams. So when they have two play
on teams, they usually take the points, and that's what's
happening here. But I think this is a spot in
which we fade the public. I like to fade the
public dog angle here. And by the way, I did
a deep dive on this game for your Sunday Night
Football video, both side and total, So if you want
to get my thoughts on the total in this game,
check out that free Place Sunday Night video here on
wager Talk TV. And as I mentioned the video, I
do like the Eagles minus the two and a half.
It's below that key number of three. Two pretty equal
teams here, but I think the scheduling spot, even though
Philly's coming off the Monday night game at Green Bay
three straight wins and covers, I think the scheduling spot's
not as good for the Lions back to back road
games after that easy win against the Commanders. And this
is a Detroit team that outdoors on grass has never
been quite as strong. They're built for the fast track indoors,
and they've been a good offensive team overall this year.
Should be a lot of points both ways, but I
think the Eagles can match them. I like Philadelphia here
minus two and a half, and I would fade the
public in this one, and don't know if it'll hit
that key number three. We're seeing a couple of threes
out there, so he probably want to go and grab
two and a half now with the Eagles. But once again,
the Lions are a public dog as it's looking a
lot of that money might come in on Sunday night,
so I would expect this line to close two and
a half or less, but still probably not worse risking
grabbing the three, and there are some threes out there.
If you like the Lions, by the way, grab the
plus three now as I'm not sure it'll be there
at the closing line on Sunday Night. That's an eight
twenty eastern of course on NBC. All right, your fifth
and final public plays actually your Monday Night game, Monday
Night Cowboys minus the three to three and a half.
Now here's another example of shopping for line value. Three
and a half is a available out there. If you
like the Raiders, grab three and a half. But I'd
rather be on the Cowboys side, especially at minus three.
And this is another one where I don't disagree with
the public here. We don't blindly fade the public. We
pick our spots, and Dallas here should be pretty focused
off back to back losses. They beat the Commanders and
then of course they lost at Denver in a blowout,
and then a bad loss against Arizona on Monday Night
Football in which the public, by the way, was heavy
on the Cowboys in that game two weeks ago. And
if you recall my Monday Night Football video and this video,
I told you I like the Cardinals in that game,
so it was not a total surprise they pulled the upset.
And also keep in mind Dallas had a three to
nothing turnover deficit in that game. They also had to
turnover deficit in the Denver game. In fact, their last
two losses five turnovers and only one force and then
the bye week. So the bye week came in a
perfect time for the Cowboys, and I do think this
is a good bounce back spot. Not in a hurry
to back the Raiders. They've lost seven of their last
eight games straight up, and they're coming off a tough
loss against Denver. This looks like a good bounced back
spot for the Cowboys. But I can only at minus three,
just like the Niners. I don't disagree with the public
in these games, but three to three and a half
is such a difference. It's about a nine to ten
percent chance that an NFL favor is gonna win by
exactly three points, so it's a huge difference at half point.
I like Dallas at minus three or less. I would
agree with the public in this one. On Monday Night Football.
And once again, if you want my opinion on my
full deep dive on this game, include my over under opinion.
Check that out on the Monday Night Football Vibe. I
got a free play on the total for you in
that Monday Night Football game video between the Raiders and
Cowboys right here on wager Talk TV. Right there are
two other games. Those are five official public plays. I'll
recap them real quick for you. The Dolphins minus two
and a half, Chargers minus three, forty nine Ers minus three,
Lions public dog at plus two and a half, and
then the Cowboys minus the three to three and a
half on Monday Night football. Those are your five official
public plays for week number eleven, twenty eight and eighteen
fading those so far this season sixty one percent. Two
games have just missed out just a bit outside. I'll
give you two as the public leans. By the way,
the additional public leans fading those are three and two
this year, I haven't given you many. I'm gonna start
trying to give you more of these videos go on,
But two games have just missed the cut. I would
say they are as definitely some public sentiment on the
Houston Texans minus five and a half to six. Keeping
on their quarterback situation though, as we'll have to find
out if Stroud is back for them at quarterback. CJ.
Stroud is downgraded to rule it out. Actually last I
saw a couple of days ago, so we'll have to
see who they name as their starter. But once again
the public is on the Houston Texans. And here again
the Titans probably are in a good situational spot here
at home, they've been a little bit stronger also revenge.
But once I don't like backing bad teams, but yeah,
Houston minus five and a half to minus six is
getting some public centiment at one o'clock Eastern. And then
the other one that's get was close to making the
cut is the Baltimore Ravens that's on the Lake card
at four to twenty five Eastern. Ravens minus the seven
and a half at Cleveland. Brown's have been a great
defensive team at times, especially at home this year, but
boy is that offend and doesn't look like Gabriel the
young quarterback has been the answer for them. And the
Ravens of course are starting to turn the corner after
that terrible start to the season. They does look like
they're the team to beat now in what's a very
weak AFC North Division. So the public is backing Baltimore,
not a surprise in that one and that game at
four to twenty five Eastern. So two games that just
missed the cut and you'd be playing some ugly home
dogs in both situations if your faming them as the
Houston Texans minus six at Tennessee and the Baltimore Ravens
minus seven and a half at Cleveland, both additional public
leans for week number eleven. There you go, seven games
for you, including the five most public sides, a couple
of additional leans for you. Always try to give you
as much information as possible in these videos and hope
you are finding it useful. And if you are, all
I ask is a quick thumbs up like click that
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This Sunday and Monday, Week eleven of the NFL. Do
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