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Speaker 1: Fading the Public has went sixty one percent for free

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in this video. So far this season, I've got five

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public sides for week eleven, covering both Sunday and Monday

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night football, and also a public underdog alert. All that

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information coming up free with analysis right here, right now.

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Hi's a Steve merrillwager Talk dot Com right back here

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on wager Talk TV. And last week the public went

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three and three overall, which is actually a victory for

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the public, because I believe what was a fading went

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nine and three to two weeks before that. Overall this

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season now twenty eight and eighteen, Fading the Public here

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free in this video sixty one percent overall. And there

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are five public plays this week for week number eleven,

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and it covers your early game in Madrid, Spain, your

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Sunday night game, your Monday night football game. Let's get

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right to it. Let's start that early game in Madrid, Spain,

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the first game ever in Spain, first NFL game ever,

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and it is not my Washington Commanders against the Miami Dolphins,

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and not surprisingly the Dolphins or the public side here. Well,

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actually I should say surprisingly, because the Dolphins going into

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last week were just two and seven straight up. The

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Buffalo Bills were a heavy public favorite last week, and

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of course what happens while Miami comes out never in

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doubt and routes the Buffalo Bills from start to finish

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easy thirty to thirteen win. Both of these teams are

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three and seven straight up. They're both having miserable seasons.

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Yet the public has now switched and after fading the Dolphins,

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they're jumping on the Dolphins this week. But that's not

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a surprise because the other really public play, in fact,

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the most public played last week the public was correct on,

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and that was the Detroit Lions, fading the Commanders as

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they lost their fifth straight game in a row, both

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straight up and against the spread. However, these European games

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can often be a bit of a reset, a bit

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of a random game, and you almost got to wonder

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if it's to let down spot for Miami after the

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big home dog win against division rival Buffalo, after just

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playing Baltimore Thursday Night football before that, could they possibly

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come in a little flat here to this trip to Spain.

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And meanwhile, the Commanders probably are happy to get out

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of the country after five straight losses. Dan Quinn also

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defensive minded head coach Dan Quinn is going to start

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calling the defensive plays this week. We'll see if that

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makes a difference. I'm not in her try to back

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the Commanders, you guys know, I've been fading them all

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season long with success and mainly because we thought they'd

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have a bad season. We had an under nine and

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a half season wins play, which is very close to cash,

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and in fact, the only way we don't win that

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now is if the Commanders win each of their final

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seven games. Commanders have to go seven to oh. If

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they go six and one, we cash are under tickets,

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so it's pretty much a lock. However, I think the

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Commanders might get a win this week. You know, we

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did take a few shots with them a few weeks

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ago against Kansas City in that game. Also, I believe

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the Seattle game Daniels got hurt. Those you can't read

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much into that, and they're learning to play now with

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Marcus Mariote, who had an excellent game against the Detroit

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Lions offensively last week, and the Dolphins are still a

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really bad defensive team. Commanders have been bad defensively as well,

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so the over is probably also worth a look here.

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In fact, I leen Commanders and I lean over. I

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think the Commander team total over twenty two and a

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half is probably the best way to attack this game.

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But this is a spot in which you can probably

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look to fade the public. I'm not sure Miami deserves

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to be laying points against anybody after that big win.

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And by the way, it's two and a half in

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most spots, juiced, there are some threes starting to show.

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So if you like the Commanders, I would wait. You

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might get a plus three by kickoff. That's the early game,

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nine thirty am Eastern Sunday morning on NFL Network. All right,

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your other game on the daytime card at one o'clock

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Eastern is the LA Chargers minus three. Another public side

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the LA Chargers minus three, as the public is looking

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to fade. The Jacksonville Jaguars are in a bit of

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a tail spin here in recent weeks, losing three of

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their last four straight up, and they have failed to

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cover every game. They had a push against the Raiders

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depending on your line, but they failed to cover and

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the other three losses going zero to three straight up

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and against the spread. Meanwhile, the Chargers three straight wins

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for their last five. We had a best bet winner

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on them Sunday Night football against the Steelers from my

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clients at wager talk dot com. Also gave you the

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Chargers in the Sunday Night video free last week, and

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don't forget, I gave you the Sunday and Monday Night

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videos free every week. Thursday Night Prime games are ten

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and two. We cashed again with the Patriots this past Thursday,

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now ten and two in your free Thursday Night NFL

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plays this season hitting over eighty percent. Make sure you

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click subscribe and click that bell so you never miss

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out when a free play video is posted here on

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wager Talk to you and you have liked him thumbs

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up like in a positive comment below, and I will

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keep them coming. Click that thumbs up like that's all

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I truly asked. Takes two seconds. So yeah. The Chargers

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in excellent current form here could be a bit of

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a letdown spot though, traveling cross country off the Sunday

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Night win against Pittsburgh and then back home next week

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for divisional game. Actually in two weeks a bye week

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on deck, So coming off the big win and a

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bye week on deck, they might overlook this game. And

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the Chargers still have some injuries on offensive line. Joe alt,

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the best one of the best line in the league,

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is out for the rest of the season. This looks

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like a little bit of a by low spot for

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Jacksonville team that has been capable this year. I know

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they win against Kansas City was misleading, but they did

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still start four and one this year, including wins against Houston,

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San Francisco and Kansas City close loss against Seattle. Wheels

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have come off a bit recently, but even the last

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two games a win against the Raiders and a seven

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point loss against Houston on the road, they've been headed

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of and at the Chargers coming a little bit flat here,

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which is possible could be a spot in which Jacksonville

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sneaks out with the wins. So you might want to

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look to fade the public in this one. It's also

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an early kickoff at one eastern. That's ten am Charger time.

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I'd probably fade the Chargers here minus three. Take a

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look at the Jags plus three and they fade the

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public situation. That's at one eastern. All right, your next

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game is probably the most public play this week. It

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goes at four o'clock Eastern. The late afternoon card and

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that's the San Francisco forty nine Ers. Of the five

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games I've given you, I think the forty nine ers

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are probably the most public play overall this week, and

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that line is currently minus three minus a dollar fifteen.

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So here again, it opened one, it's up to three

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because brock Party is expected to be back this week

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after being out for several games. Wouldn't be surprised to

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see this game close three and a half. See, if

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you like the forty nine ers, you probably want to

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grab the minus three now. If you like the Cardinals weight,

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you should have some three and a halves available by

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the late kickoff Sunday afternoon. Set's been a better quarterback,

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by the way for the Cardinals, and I do think

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perty'll give the forty nine ers offense a little bit

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of a spark. So I do like the over in

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this game, over forty eight and a half is in play.

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So San Francisco Arizona over forty eight and a half

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I think makes sense. But it should also be a

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focus spot for San Francisco. And you know we don't

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just blindly fade the public. I mentioned last week how

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the lines were the most public side. They easily won

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by twenty two points. I didn't disagree. I was in

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no hurry to be on the Commanders last week. Same

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thing here, forty nine Ers losing two of their last

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three games. They're the better team and the Cardinals while

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they've been competitive. They upset the Cowboys on Monday Night Football,

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competitive against the Colts and Packers before that. Wals kind

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of came off last week at twenty two point loss

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at Seattle despite having a plus one turnover margin. That's

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always a big red flag for me when a team

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is plus in the turnover margin and still loses by

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twenty two points and fails to cover. I like San

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Francisco in this spot. We don't blindly fade the public.

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I would agree with them here, but I only like

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the Niners. Of that key number of minus three gets

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up to three and a half, there's probably less value

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at that point. But take a look at San Francisco

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also the over forty eight and a half. This is

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when I would agree with the public, and the forty

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nine Ers do look like the most public side here

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in week eleven, right, let's look at the Sunday night

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game now Detroit and Philadelphia and Ding Ding red flag alert,

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this is your public underdog this week, and look, Fading

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public Dogs. I think started what six and one this season,

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Now it's like six and four because we've lost the

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public is won three in a row, but it's still

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sixty percent fading them and long term, this is still

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one of my favorite subsets. As you loyal viewers know,

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there's lots of different ways to use this public information.

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And by the way, if you're new to the video,

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we don't just blindly fade the public. In general. I

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don't like to play really bad teams and that's often

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what you get, so I usually kind of scratch those off,

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and other situations like San Francisco coming off a loss,

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they might be focused, so we kind of scratch those

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off as well. But one spot I love and it

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always makes my short list is fading public dogs, and

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the reason being is that the public is normally on

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favorites and overs, so whenever you see them on an

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underdog or unders with totals, it catches your eye. And

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the other nice thing about fading public dogs is by definition,

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when we're taking a favorite, we're getting the better team,

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so we're usually gett a quo and that's definitely the

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case here at the defending Super Bowl champs Philadelphia Eagles

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seven to two straight up. And by the way, they

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were the public dog last week in Monday Night Football

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and they cashed in one out right against the Packers

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on the road. So I find it a little ironic,

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a little surprising that all of a sudden they go

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from cashing as a public dog on national TV to

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be in a fade play. The Lions, as I mentioned earlier,

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were the most public player of the week last week

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against the Commanders, so I guess the public did well

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with both these teams. So when they have two play

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on teams, they usually take the points, and that's what's

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happening here. But I think this is a spot in

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which we fade the public. I like to fade the

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public dog angle here. And by the way, I did

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a deep dive on this game for your Sunday Night

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Football video, both side and total, So if you want

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to get my thoughts on the total in this game,

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check out that free Place Sunday Night video here on

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wager Talk TV. And as I mentioned the video, I

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do like the Eagles minus the two and a half.

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It's below that key number of three. Two pretty equal

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teams here, but I think the scheduling spot, even though

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Philly's coming off the Monday night game at Green Bay

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three straight wins and covers, I think the scheduling spot's

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not as good for the Lions back to back road

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games after that easy win against the Commanders. And this

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is a Detroit team that outdoors on grass has never

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been quite as strong. They're built for the fast track indoors,

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and they've been a good offensive team overall this year.

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Should be a lot of points both ways, but I

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think the Eagles can match them. I like Philadelphia here

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minus two and a half, and I would fade the

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public in this one, and don't know if it'll hit

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that key number three. We're seeing a couple of threes

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out there, so he probably want to go and grab

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two and a half now with the Eagles. But once again,

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the Lions are a public dog as it's looking a

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lot of that money might come in on Sunday night,

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so I would expect this line to close two and

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a half or less, but still probably not worse risking

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grabbing the three, and there are some threes out there.

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If you like the Lions, by the way, grab the

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plus three now as I'm not sure it'll be there

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at the closing line on Sunday Night. That's an eight

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twenty eastern of course on NBC. All right, your fifth

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and final public plays actually your Monday Night game, Monday

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Night Cowboys minus the three to three and a half.

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Now here's another example of shopping for line value. Three

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and a half is a available out there. If you

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like the Raiders, grab three and a half. But I'd

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rather be on the Cowboys side, especially at minus three.

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And this is another one where I don't disagree with

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the public here. We don't blindly fade the public. We

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pick our spots, and Dallas here should be pretty focused

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off back to back losses. They beat the Commanders and

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then of course they lost at Denver in a blowout,

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and then a bad loss against Arizona on Monday Night

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Football in which the public, by the way, was heavy

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on the Cowboys in that game two weeks ago. And

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if you recall my Monday Night Football video and this video,

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I told you I like the Cardinals in that game,

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so it was not a total surprise they pulled the upset.

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And also keep in mind Dallas had a three to

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nothing turnover deficit in that game. They also had to

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turnover deficit in the Denver game. In fact, their last

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two losses five turnovers and only one force and then

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the bye week. So the bye week came in a

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perfect time for the Cowboys, and I do think this

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is a good bounce back spot. Not in a hurry

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00:10:50,919 --> 00:10:53,080
to back the Raiders. They've lost seven of their last

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eight games straight up, and they're coming off a tough

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loss against Denver. This looks like a good bounced back

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spot for the Cowboys. But I can only at minus three,

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just like the Niners. I don't disagree with the public

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00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:05,320
in these games, but three to three and a half

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00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:06,960
is such a difference. It's about a nine to ten

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percent chance that an NFL favor is gonna win by

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00:11:09,879 --> 00:11:12,960
exactly three points, so it's a huge difference at half point.

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I like Dallas at minus three or less. I would

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agree with the public in this one. On Monday Night Football.

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And once again, if you want my opinion on my

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00:11:19,759 --> 00:11:22,320
full deep dive on this game, include my over under opinion.

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Check that out on the Monday Night Football Vibe. I

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00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:27,120
got a free play on the total for you in

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00:11:27,159 --> 00:11:29,360
that Monday Night Football game video between the Raiders and

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00:11:29,399 --> 00:11:32,960
Cowboys right here on wager Talk TV. Right there are

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two other games. Those are five official public plays. I'll

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00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:37,480
recap them real quick for you. The Dolphins minus two

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00:11:37,519 --> 00:11:41,720
and a half, Chargers minus three, forty nine Ers minus three,

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00:11:42,639 --> 00:11:45,240
Lions public dog at plus two and a half, and

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then the Cowboys minus the three to three and a

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half on Monday Night football. Those are your five official

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public plays for week number eleven, twenty eight and eighteen

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00:11:52,399 --> 00:11:55,960
fading those so far this season sixty one percent. Two

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00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:58,279
games have just missed out just a bit outside. I'll

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give you two as the public leans. By the way,

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00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:02,120
the additional public leans fading those are three and two

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00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:03,679
this year, I haven't given you many. I'm gonna start

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00:12:03,679 --> 00:12:05,120
trying to give you more of these videos go on,

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00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:07,679
But two games have just missed the cut. I would

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00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:10,399
say they are as definitely some public sentiment on the

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Houston Texans minus five and a half to six. Keeping

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00:12:13,919 --> 00:12:17,159
on their quarterback situation though, as we'll have to find

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00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:21,360
out if Stroud is back for them at quarterback. CJ.

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00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:23,759
Stroud is downgraded to rule it out. Actually last I

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00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:26,039
saw a couple of days ago, so we'll have to

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see who they name as their starter. But once again

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00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:32,519
the public is on the Houston Texans. And here again

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00:12:32,919 --> 00:12:35,759
the Titans probably are in a good situational spot here

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00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:38,360
at home, they've been a little bit stronger also revenge.

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00:12:39,159 --> 00:12:41,919
But once I don't like backing bad teams, but yeah,

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00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:44,399
Houston minus five and a half to minus six is

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00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:47,159
getting some public centiment at one o'clock Eastern. And then

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the other one that's get was close to making the

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00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:50,960
cut is the Baltimore Ravens that's on the Lake card

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00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:54,039
at four to twenty five Eastern. Ravens minus the seven

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00:12:54,039 --> 00:12:56,919
and a half at Cleveland. Brown's have been a great

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00:12:56,919 --> 00:12:59,120
defensive team at times, especially at home this year, but

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00:12:59,159 --> 00:13:02,320
boy is that offend and doesn't look like Gabriel the

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00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:04,720
young quarterback has been the answer for them. And the

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00:13:04,799 --> 00:13:07,480
Ravens of course are starting to turn the corner after

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00:13:07,519 --> 00:13:10,759
that terrible start to the season. They does look like

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00:13:10,759 --> 00:13:13,200
they're the team to beat now in what's a very

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00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:17,679
weak AFC North Division. So the public is backing Baltimore,

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00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:20,159
not a surprise in that one and that game at

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00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:22,200
four to twenty five Eastern. So two games that just

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00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:25,159
missed the cut and you'd be playing some ugly home

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00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:27,360
dogs in both situations if your faming them as the

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00:13:27,399 --> 00:13:31,559
Houston Texans minus six at Tennessee and the Baltimore Ravens

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00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:34,759
minus seven and a half at Cleveland, both additional public

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00:13:34,879 --> 00:13:39,159
leans for week number eleven. There you go, seven games

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00:13:39,159 --> 00:13:41,200
for you, including the five most public sides, a couple

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00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:43,039
of additional leans for you. Always try to give you

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00:13:43,039 --> 00:13:45,679
as much information as possible in these videos and hope

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00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:47,639
you are finding it useful. And if you are, all

325
00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:49,840
I ask is a quick thumbs up like click that

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00:13:49,879 --> 00:13:51,720
thumbs up like, and I will keep these videos coming

327
00:13:51,759 --> 00:13:54,120
each and every day here on wager Talk TV. And

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00:13:54,159 --> 00:13:56,720
if you have a couple extra seconds, drop a positive

329
00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:58,480
comment below. Hey, let me know where you agree or

330
00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:00,879
disagree at the public. What games do you like this week?

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00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:04,000
This Sunday and Monday, Week eleven of the NFL. Do

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00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:06,039
you agree or disagree with the public in these games?

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00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:08,519
What other best bets are you looking at? Hey? Include

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some analysis if you have time, let's learn and earn

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and win together here on wager Talk TV. And once again,

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if you haven't click subscribed to it, I'm sure you

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already have over two hundred and thirty thousand subscribers can't

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be wrong. Don't cost nothing. Click subscribe for free, but

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also consider clicking that bell as well so you will

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get an instant alert when a free players video is posted.

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And don't forget I do the faith of public every weekend.

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Do my college football Top twenty five video for Saturday.

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00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:35,120
Those are the two big boy videos, but I also

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00:14:35,159 --> 00:14:37,320
chip away all week long. In fact, the past several weeks,

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00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:40,679
I've given you every weeknight college football game on Tuesday, Wednesday,

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Thursday and Friday. Also, as I mentioned earlier, every Thursday

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Night NFL game ten and two on this free Thursday

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night Prime games this year, Sunday and Monday night football

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free plays on the totals for Eagles, Lions, and also

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Cowboys Raiders are here on the channel for this weekend.

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Check those out after you watch this, click subscribe, click

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the bell. You'll never miss out out when a free

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play videos posted. Thumbs up, like and positive comments below

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are always appreciated because I do truly read the comments

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and I reply back here on wager Talk TV. Now

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I'm going to give you like fifteen to twenty free

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plays a week all the national TV games Obviously, many

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of those are light leans only and they don't make

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the best bet card. And by the way, if you

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play them, nothing wrong with that. One percent of bankroll

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is probably appropriate for the TV leans. But my official plays,

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the strong plays are ready as four percent of bankroll.

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Those are my personal best bets, the games I'm using,

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