WEBVTT 1 00:00:10.839 --> 00:00:13.960 Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of IS on Geopolitics. 2 00:00:14.000 --> 00:00:18.039 I'm here today with mc mulroy, Jason Lyons, I'm Dimitric Tacos. 3 00:00:18.079 --> 00:00:20.440 Thanks for joining us. To us a favor like subscribe. 4 00:00:20.440 --> 00:00:24.519 If you're listening to us on audio, click click five stars. 5 00:00:25.039 --> 00:00:26.559 Tell your friend about it, you know what I mean, 6 00:00:26.640 --> 00:00:29.800 Do what you can. What's up, guys? Happy Mother's Day 7 00:00:29.839 --> 00:00:30.440 to everybody. 8 00:00:31.079 --> 00:00:34.600 Same, Make sure you call your mom. 9 00:00:35.039 --> 00:00:38.159 Call your mom, Yeah, definitely don't. 10 00:00:38.200 --> 00:00:38.479 Don't. 11 00:00:38.560 --> 00:00:40.799 Don't waste them in it. Do it right now, Pause 12 00:00:40.880 --> 00:00:42.159 this right now and call your mom. 13 00:00:42.640 --> 00:00:45.679 Absolutely so. 14 00:00:46.119 --> 00:00:49.880 A lot happening as usual, First and foremost back and 15 00:00:49.920 --> 00:00:53.880 forth with Indian Pakistan. It was announced yesterday that there 16 00:00:53.920 --> 00:00:56.920 was a ceasefire, and then a couple hours later there 17 00:00:56.960 --> 00:00:59.960 was a bit of an exchange of fire between Indian Pakistan. 18 00:01:00.640 --> 00:01:02.679 But let's kick off with the ceasfire and what it 19 00:01:02.719 --> 00:01:07.120 looks like. Mick, what what are you tracking with that? 20 00:01:08.959 --> 00:01:13.000 Well, obviously the cease far is a good thing for everybody. Right, 21 00:01:13.079 --> 00:01:19.719 you got two major powers, both nuclear equipped, everybody. You 22 00:01:19.799 --> 00:01:23.799 want to see this de escalate, not escalate, to state 23 00:01:23.840 --> 00:01:26.719 the obvious. The fact that the US played a role 24 00:01:26.760 --> 00:01:28.760 I think is great, you know. I mean it was 25 00:01:28.799 --> 00:01:31.840 a little mixed messages. You know, this wasn't US concerned, 26 00:01:31.879 --> 00:01:35.200 and then there's ceasefire. Now we're kind of taking credit 27 00:01:35.200 --> 00:01:38.439 for the ceasfire. It's like, Okay, I guess it was 28 00:01:38.519 --> 00:01:40.719 good concern, but you know, other than that, I think 29 00:01:40.719 --> 00:01:43.359 it's a good thing. The US has relationships with both 30 00:01:43.400 --> 00:01:47.159 India and Pakistan, so a lot of countries had good 31 00:01:47.200 --> 00:01:49.879 relationships with one or the other, but not both. So 32 00:01:49.879 --> 00:01:51.680 that's why I think the US was critical. And this 33 00:01:51.760 --> 00:01:55.200 hats off the Secretary of Rubio and his team for 34 00:01:55.319 --> 00:01:57.640 the role they played in getting this. But I do 35 00:01:57.680 --> 00:02:01.799 think both sides were looking for an offer, right because 36 00:02:01.799 --> 00:02:04.840 it's like, I'm sure everybody's you know, General staff is 37 00:02:04.840 --> 00:02:07.159 sitting around going how does this end if it's not, 38 00:02:07.400 --> 00:02:09.479 you know, an immediate seaspire, because if it's tick for 39 00:02:09.560 --> 00:02:15.199 tack until ground forces are involved, there's an issue. You know. 40 00:02:15.479 --> 00:02:17.719 I think sometimes we talk too much about doctrine, like 41 00:02:17.719 --> 00:02:21.719 it can't be changed. But the Indian doctrine is a 42 00:02:21.759 --> 00:02:24.960 no first use, so they won't use it first. The 43 00:02:25.080 --> 00:02:29.039 Pakistani doctrine doesn't have that, so they can use it first, 44 00:02:29.280 --> 00:02:32.919 and they've already decided that and they don't consider like Russia, 45 00:02:32.960 --> 00:02:37.159 they don't consider tackle nukes to be nukes really, but 46 00:02:37.280 --> 00:02:41.000 most countries would if you had a tackle nuke laub 47 00:02:41.080 --> 00:02:45.560 that you so under their doctrine. Pakistan, if if their 48 00:02:45.680 --> 00:02:50.000 armies loses a key position, they can use a tactle 49 00:02:50.120 --> 00:02:53.439 nuclear weapon. So that could have been the triggering for 50 00:02:53.520 --> 00:02:58.000 an escalation to a full knowrategic level nuclear war. So 51 00:02:58.159 --> 00:03:01.080 that that was the biggest concern I think for everybody. 52 00:03:01.280 --> 00:03:03.599 And you know, we were just talking about before we 53 00:03:03.639 --> 00:03:07.960 came on air, Jay should let fill us in on this. 54 00:03:08.120 --> 00:03:12.000 There's still been stuff, but ultimately, if it holds long 55 00:03:12.080 --> 00:03:15.719 term good thing, perhaps this would be a time to 56 00:03:15.759 --> 00:03:19.719 transition into long term negotiations with the US leading in 57 00:03:19.840 --> 00:03:23.599 because they still haven't. You know, the Indus River Treaty 58 00:03:23.639 --> 00:03:27.439 is still old, there's still no diplomatic presence in each country. 59 00:03:28.039 --> 00:03:31.039 I think airspace is still there's still stuff that needs 60 00:03:31.080 --> 00:03:33.039 to be done other than there's not shooting at each other. 61 00:03:34.919 --> 00:03:40.199 Yeah, I agree, that's the key is you know, great, 62 00:03:40.240 --> 00:03:42.400 we got this short term ceasefire, but when we need 63 00:03:42.439 --> 00:03:44.439 to now start working on the long term, I think 64 00:03:44.439 --> 00:03:48.159 it would be a mistake for our administration to say, Okay, 65 00:03:48.159 --> 00:03:51.280 we got the ceasefire. Now we can let you guys 66 00:03:51.280 --> 00:03:53.639 handle it all. Not that they're not capable, but it's 67 00:03:53.680 --> 00:03:57.159 like when kids are fighting, when everybody's hot headed, nobody 68 00:03:57.199 --> 00:04:00.319 wants to, you know, talk it out until somebody's in 69 00:04:00.360 --> 00:04:05.280 a neutral party and is able to calmer heads prevail. 70 00:04:05.439 --> 00:04:07.319 So I'm hoping that we will stay in for the 71 00:04:07.360 --> 00:04:12.599 long run. It's uh, there's some pretty significant events that 72 00:04:12.680 --> 00:04:16.240 happened in the short this short conflict, one of which, 73 00:04:16.399 --> 00:04:20.120 if the rumors are true about the aircraft that were 74 00:04:20.120 --> 00:04:23.839 shot down and things like that, this would be the 75 00:04:24.040 --> 00:04:29.480 largest air battle between two countries in since I believe 76 00:04:29.480 --> 00:04:34.040 it was Vietnam. So the rumors are that, you know, 77 00:04:34.240 --> 00:04:37.519 I think it was eight Indian aircraft were shot down 78 00:04:37.639 --> 00:04:43.720 and a couple of Pakistani ones. The big thing being 79 00:04:43.800 --> 00:04:48.959 that in Chinese made. I think it's a J twenty 80 00:04:49.079 --> 00:04:53.839 I believe if that's correct, J ten. J ten shot 81 00:04:53.879 --> 00:04:58.079 down a Raphael, a French made Rafael on the Indian side, 82 00:04:58.079 --> 00:05:01.800 which is pretty significant because that's a first I believe 83 00:05:01.839 --> 00:05:05.120 combat loss of a rufl. If it's all true, I 84 00:05:05.160 --> 00:05:08.079 know that there's been a lot of misinformation, disinformation some 85 00:05:08.120 --> 00:05:11.279 of the videos that were being shown in the initial 86 00:05:11.319 --> 00:05:16.240 stages of the conflict were actually videos shipped from Gaza 87 00:05:16.720 --> 00:05:19.399 from a year or two ago, things like that, and 88 00:05:19.399 --> 00:05:23.800 then wreckage that was shown was purported to be from 89 00:05:23.879 --> 00:05:27.439 a different conflict, So we don't know exactly what's what. 90 00:05:27.480 --> 00:05:31.959 I don't believe, and Mick, maybe you can refute or 91 00:05:33.240 --> 00:05:36.519 say that this is true. There's not a big Western 92 00:05:36.839 --> 00:05:41.720 media presence in that area to report on this stuff, 93 00:05:41.759 --> 00:05:45.519 so we're basically going by whatever side is talking first. 94 00:05:45.720 --> 00:05:48.439 So I think that's fair. I've seen very few Western 95 00:05:48.480 --> 00:05:54.040 media reporting, some CNN, but it seems like they're out 96 00:05:54.040 --> 00:05:56.519 in Kashmere. But right now Kashmir is essentially a no 97 00:05:56.639 --> 00:06:00.240 go zone for anybody, So I think you're right having 98 00:06:00.240 --> 00:06:04.680 to rely on a lot of reports that could be 99 00:06:05.000 --> 00:06:08.240 seriously biased based on you know, where they're coming from. 100 00:06:08.439 --> 00:06:12.480 Absolutely, and I'm sure that US and other Western intelligences, 101 00:06:12.800 --> 00:06:14.920 if they're not in the region already, which I'm sure 102 00:06:14.920 --> 00:06:17.040 there are, are trying to get into the region. But 103 00:06:17.519 --> 00:06:20.240 that's still stuff. SOT has to be vetted, whatever information 104 00:06:20.319 --> 00:06:23.319 comes out and then scrubbed if it's going to get 105 00:06:23.399 --> 00:06:25.839 leaked to the press. You know about what is known. 106 00:06:25.959 --> 00:06:27.879 So I think for now we're just gonna have to 107 00:06:27.879 --> 00:06:30.560 rely on, you know, both sides, and to be honest 108 00:06:30.600 --> 00:06:35.879 with the probably the most truthful reporting would be from 109 00:06:36.079 --> 00:06:39.439 the average citizen tweeting on X, Hey I'm here and 110 00:06:39.480 --> 00:06:41.160 this is what I'm seeing kind of stuff. 111 00:06:41.240 --> 00:06:44.800 So mm hmmm. Yeah, you can validate where the person 112 00:06:44.959 --> 00:06:46.720 was when they shot at yep. 113 00:06:46.879 --> 00:06:54.680 Absolutely, and the that the ceasefire supposed violations. There was 114 00:06:54.720 --> 00:07:00.319 a an explosion. There were explosions reported in Shrinegar, the 115 00:07:00.399 --> 00:07:05.519 Cernagard region, and but nobody's been allowed to report from there, 116 00:07:05.600 --> 00:07:07.240 so we can verify that. 117 00:07:07.480 --> 00:07:10.720 So yeah, okay, well let's hope it holds. 118 00:07:11.000 --> 00:07:14.399 Yeah, definitely a little bit more on the aviation side, 119 00:07:15.720 --> 00:07:19.560 if it's true that they did down a rafile, it's 120 00:07:19.600 --> 00:07:23.319 the first time the Peel fifteen air to air missile 121 00:07:23.519 --> 00:07:27.600 that's a Chinese missile has been used in combat and 122 00:07:27.639 --> 00:07:29.920 has shot down. And it's the export variant too, so 123 00:07:29.959 --> 00:07:33.480 it's not even the variant that like China actually has 124 00:07:33.720 --> 00:07:37.199 on their fighters and stuff like. That's a medium to 125 00:07:37.279 --> 00:07:40.480 long range air to air missile that out that for 126 00:07:40.560 --> 00:07:45.319 all intensive purposes, does outrange our aim one twenties. I mean, 127 00:07:45.360 --> 00:07:47.639 we're still waiting for the aim to sixty that's supposed 128 00:07:47.639 --> 00:07:49.959 to like you know, beat everybody. But that's been in 129 00:07:50.000 --> 00:07:51.800 development for like the last few years and we still 130 00:07:51.800 --> 00:07:53.600 haven't seen it on a picture like on a plane 131 00:07:53.680 --> 00:07:54.000 or anything. 132 00:07:54.120 --> 00:07:57.439 So and it's oh, go ahead. 133 00:07:58.240 --> 00:08:01.079 I think the French validated that it was shut down, right. 134 00:08:01.040 --> 00:08:03.240 I believe so, I think the Rafel, Yeah, but they 135 00:08:03.319 --> 00:08:05.800 mentioned that they said that they shot down way more 136 00:08:05.839 --> 00:08:12.519 of them, and they said they also shot down to suey. 137 00:08:12.519 --> 00:08:13.279 Nine as well. Yeah. 138 00:08:13.920 --> 00:08:16.879 Yeah, but the the Rafel, I've seen pictures of like 139 00:08:16.920 --> 00:08:19.480 the tail number and stuff like that. I've seen the 140 00:08:19.639 --> 00:08:22.839 pictures of the actual PL fifteen supposedly, but I would 141 00:08:23.360 --> 00:08:25.399 the thing that I'm questioning about that wouldn't the PL 142 00:08:25.439 --> 00:08:27.079 fifteen explode like that? 143 00:08:27.519 --> 00:08:30.480 They had one almost completely intact, yeah. 144 00:08:30.240 --> 00:08:33.039 Just like they have a fragmentation warheads. 145 00:08:32.639 --> 00:08:34.639 So yeah, would probably. 146 00:08:34.759 --> 00:08:34.919 Yeah. 147 00:08:35.360 --> 00:08:37.879 There was also a picture of like the PL fifteen's 148 00:08:37.919 --> 00:08:40.960 like uh acer radar and stuff like that, their own 149 00:08:41.000 --> 00:08:43.480 like little seeker and stuff that was like relatively intact, 150 00:08:43.480 --> 00:08:46.399 and I would think, like, isn't that going headlong like 151 00:08:46.480 --> 00:08:48.200 into a plane that's exploding? 152 00:08:48.240 --> 00:08:50.879 Like I don't know how most of the time they're proximity. 153 00:08:50.960 --> 00:08:53.879 So is it when it gets to a certain ranger 154 00:08:53.919 --> 00:08:57.960 within the aircraft it'll go off. So maybe, you know, 155 00:08:58.080 --> 00:09:00.799 maybe parts may have ve it, But. 156 00:09:01.159 --> 00:09:04.799 So aviation, like the aviation world is like, I'll like 157 00:09:05.000 --> 00:09:06.120 spinning off because of this. 158 00:09:06.360 --> 00:09:07.360 Now I'm sure. 159 00:09:07.240 --> 00:09:09.679 Alex Hollins is locked in a room somewhere right now. 160 00:09:09.720 --> 00:09:11.679 Oh yeah. 161 00:09:11.720 --> 00:09:13.639 And what's crazy is I mean, it sucks because it's 162 00:09:13.720 --> 00:09:18.240 loss of life, but this is a good quote unquote 163 00:09:18.279 --> 00:09:22.000 good battlefield laboratory for us and for the Chinese and 164 00:09:22.080 --> 00:09:25.879 for the Russians because we're letting someone else take the 165 00:09:25.960 --> 00:09:28.559 heat and while we sit back and you know, hey, 166 00:09:28.720 --> 00:09:31.080 that worked, you know, and the Chinese are like, okay, 167 00:09:31.120 --> 00:09:35.240 that works. So it's it's a benefit, but it's not 168 00:09:35.279 --> 00:09:36.320 necessarily a great one. 169 00:09:36.399 --> 00:09:39.480 But yeah, well that's a good point, Jay, because there's 170 00:09:39.519 --> 00:09:41.399 a lot of conflicts going around in the world right now. 171 00:09:41.960 --> 00:09:43.879 I think we're trying to end them the best we can, 172 00:09:44.279 --> 00:09:46.159 but we need to get the lessons learned from them, 173 00:09:46.159 --> 00:09:48.759 because the other way to get those lessons is to 174 00:09:48.799 --> 00:09:52.200 be involved in conflicts. So you might as well take 175 00:09:52.240 --> 00:09:55.639 the opportunity to learn from others. That's that's where the 176 00:09:55.639 --> 00:09:56.639 real smarts come at. 177 00:09:56.960 --> 00:10:00.519 Absolutely, I wonder there's a US taking serious like the uh, 178 00:10:01.919 --> 00:10:04.799 the level of drone warfare that's been going on, like 179 00:10:05.200 --> 00:10:07.480 especially in Ukraine and stuff like that, like where we're 180 00:10:07.519 --> 00:10:12.159 going to like develop our own whether it's the defensive 181 00:10:12.279 --> 00:10:17.159 or or offensive drones to like I think, God. 182 00:10:17.440 --> 00:10:21.679 Yeah, I think we're heavily involved in those for one, 183 00:10:21.799 --> 00:10:25.879 to support for example, for the Ukrainians, but also because 184 00:10:25.879 --> 00:10:28.720 we're smart enough to say this is the future of warfare. 185 00:10:28.759 --> 00:10:30.639 It's happening right in front of it. It's not just happening, 186 00:10:30.679 --> 00:10:33.039 it's involving right in front of us, right there, right now. 187 00:10:33.840 --> 00:10:38.360 And the you know, warfare is the mother of all necessity, 188 00:10:38.399 --> 00:10:40.759 and necessity is a mother of all invention. Right, So 189 00:10:42.919 --> 00:10:44.679 I think we're we need to be taken all of 190 00:10:44.679 --> 00:10:46.200 this and maybe that's part of the things we get 191 00:10:46.200 --> 00:10:48.320 out of supporting Ukraine. It's not just you know, these 192 00:10:48.399 --> 00:10:51.360 raw earth materials, it's we want to have all of 193 00:10:51.399 --> 00:10:54.720 the you know, intellectual property that comes out of what 194 00:10:54.799 --> 00:10:58.639 are you doing with drone warfare? And because we don't 195 00:10:58.639 --> 00:11:01.039 want it just to be out there for everybody, because 196 00:11:01.080 --> 00:11:07.000 this is they've proven to take very inexpensive oftentimes commercial 197 00:11:07.039 --> 00:11:11.000 off the shelf material and lethalize it to a point 198 00:11:11.039 --> 00:11:15.080 of it's just staggering. Yeah, and that can be spread 199 00:11:15.120 --> 00:11:19.000 quickly to our adversary, so we need to control it. Yeah. 200 00:11:19.159 --> 00:11:21.639 Yeah, I believe Raytheon it might be raith On, one 201 00:11:21.679 --> 00:11:25.360 of the Primes, was testing out an anti drone kind 202 00:11:25.360 --> 00:11:28.879 of I don't want to call it artillery because I 203 00:11:28.879 --> 00:11:31.080 don't think they shoot actual projectiles. I think it's more 204 00:11:31.120 --> 00:11:34.399 like electromagnetic. But they've been testing it and they've they've 205 00:11:34.440 --> 00:11:38.000 started production on it, like for for us and I'm 206 00:11:38.039 --> 00:11:40.600 assuming probably Ukraine as well. 207 00:11:40.600 --> 00:11:41.360 That's defensive. 208 00:11:41.399 --> 00:11:44.440 We also had a great former guest on Teamhouse and 209 00:11:44.480 --> 00:11:49.320 Eyes On, Chad McCoy, former twenty fourth Sts operator, who 210 00:11:49.879 --> 00:11:54.120 is the CTO and founder of Firestorm Labs, which is 211 00:11:54.159 --> 00:11:57.279 a drone company. I think they just signed a big 212 00:11:57.919 --> 00:12:01.519 deal with the DoD and stuff to develop like drone 213 00:12:01.519 --> 00:12:02.919 stuff for them. 214 00:12:04.000 --> 00:12:04.240 Yeah. 215 00:12:04.279 --> 00:12:07.519 It's pretty interesting how it's involved because it's artillery and 216 00:12:07.559 --> 00:12:11.519 it's also drones. It's like old school and like new stuff. Yeah, 217 00:12:12.200 --> 00:12:16.759 all mixed in one area. Like, it's pretty interesting to 218 00:12:16.879 --> 00:12:18.039 like see play. 219 00:12:17.840 --> 00:12:21.720 Out, and I think something that we would be smart 220 00:12:21.720 --> 00:12:23.320 to do if we're not already doing it, and I 221 00:12:23.320 --> 00:12:26.720 would think we would, but would be to have a 222 00:12:27.000 --> 00:12:30.440 mini operation paper clip type thing where we take some 223 00:12:30.600 --> 00:12:38.200 of the battlefield tested drone operators and designers from Ukraine, 224 00:12:38.559 --> 00:12:42.000 bring them here and say what works, what doesn't help 225 00:12:42.080 --> 00:12:44.360 us with this? And I'm sure that in some way 226 00:12:44.399 --> 00:12:47.559 we're doing that already. I mean we have, you know, 227 00:12:47.960 --> 00:12:50.080 we've bought some of their fighter pilots over here to 228 00:12:50.120 --> 00:12:53.159 train them, you know, fly the F sixteen, things like that. 229 00:12:54.120 --> 00:12:56.159 It wouldn't take much to get some of them over 230 00:12:56.200 --> 00:12:58.919 here to help us with our development. 231 00:13:00.440 --> 00:13:04.159 Yeah, there's actually they call it tech Rodeo. It's down 232 00:13:04.200 --> 00:13:08.159 in Sheridan, Montana, this place called Granite Creek. It's a 233 00:13:08.159 --> 00:13:12.240 giant ranch. We went, me and Eric Ah, Eric my 234 00:13:12.279 --> 00:13:14.639 business partner, went. I think it was like five years 235 00:13:14.679 --> 00:13:18.879 ago and it was maybe, I don't know, thirty five 236 00:13:19.080 --> 00:13:24.320 forty people. Apparently, now it's it's way bigger and they 237 00:13:24.399 --> 00:13:30.799 are it is a drone, counter drone, air ground ground 238 00:13:30.879 --> 00:13:34.200 drone dogs going into mine shafts. I mean, it's apparently 239 00:13:34.240 --> 00:13:38.240 it's insane now. It's just it is just exploded and 240 00:13:38.279 --> 00:13:41.159 they use it as one. It's so far out there 241 00:13:41.200 --> 00:13:45.679 that there's no concern when it comes to like the 242 00:13:46.320 --> 00:13:48.879 clearances for the drones to fly and out of sight 243 00:13:48.960 --> 00:13:51.159 and all this other stuff. So that's why it's there. 244 00:13:51.320 --> 00:13:53.559 But we plan on going back this year, and we're here. 245 00:13:53.600 --> 00:13:56.519 It's just packed and it's to be able to test 246 00:13:56.600 --> 00:13:59.919 your drone against counter drone technology and all that stuff. 247 00:13:59.720 --> 00:14:03.200 So it's a competition. It's a lot of fun, I suppose. 248 00:14:03.960 --> 00:14:07.159 So we're heading down there. It should be something interesting 249 00:14:07.200 --> 00:14:07.679 to see. 250 00:14:08.240 --> 00:14:08.679 Nice. 251 00:14:10.320 --> 00:14:12.720 Oh yeah, I just wanted to. There was a report 252 00:14:13.159 --> 00:14:15.919 I believe by CNN, I can't remember, don't quote me, 253 00:14:15.960 --> 00:14:19.240 But the reason why the Trump administration got involved with 254 00:14:19.360 --> 00:14:24.240 India Pakistan is because on Friday night they got alarming 255 00:14:24.320 --> 00:14:29.440 intelligence that kind of made them like just put the 256 00:14:29.440 --> 00:14:33.519 foot on the gas and started talking with Indian Pakistan 257 00:14:33.519 --> 00:14:37.440 and engaging us at least moving them towards the sea, 258 00:14:37.879 --> 00:14:41.039 towards a ceasefire. The funny thing was like Secretary of 259 00:14:41.080 --> 00:14:43.919 Rubio posted something about it where like Dave agreed to 260 00:14:43.600 --> 00:14:50.759 do further talks and the Indian, uh, the Indian if 261 00:14:50.799 --> 00:14:53.039 I believe, Foreign Minister said yeah, no, we haven't agreed 262 00:14:53.039 --> 00:14:56.080 to talk. The ceasefire is yes, but we talks, we 263 00:14:56.159 --> 00:14:57.440 have not agreed to yet. 264 00:14:58.559 --> 00:15:06.039 Right, and that's needed to actually resolve the sort of situation. Right, Yeah, yeah, 265 00:15:06.039 --> 00:15:07.679 that's how intelligence plays a big part. 266 00:15:07.919 --> 00:15:10.159 What do you think they heard like they're putting nukes 267 00:15:10.159 --> 00:15:12.320 in command and control, like on command and control into 268 00:15:12.399 --> 00:15:16.679 like generals or kernels whatever, like strapping nukes to like artillery, 269 00:15:17.799 --> 00:15:18.639 because that's scary. 270 00:15:19.399 --> 00:15:22.000 I mean it's just speculation. But something to be that 271 00:15:22.080 --> 00:15:27.840 concerned about would be repositioning nuclear voice, even tactical ones. 272 00:15:28.440 --> 00:15:31.080 Yeah right, I mean a tactical one they say it 273 00:15:31.120 --> 00:15:35.080 obviously has yes, less yield, so that's how they distinguished 274 00:15:35.120 --> 00:15:37.960 the two. But people here in nuclear you shot a 275 00:15:38.080 --> 00:15:41.039 nuclear or anything at somebody else, it's you know, stand by, 276 00:15:41.480 --> 00:15:45.200 yeah right, Uh, escalation is going to happen pretty quickly. 277 00:15:45.759 --> 00:15:46.159 Mm hmm. 278 00:15:46.639 --> 00:15:46.960 I don't know. 279 00:15:47.080 --> 00:15:50.720 I assume India has tactical nuclear weapons. If they don't, 280 00:15:50.759 --> 00:15:52.960 then they're going and respond with what they have, which 281 00:15:52.960 --> 00:15:56.759 is like high yield, and then there you go. 282 00:15:58.799 --> 00:16:00.279 I mean you got to assume in the it's got 283 00:16:00.360 --> 00:16:03.360 tactical nukes, right if they know Pakistan does, right, Yeah. 284 00:16:03.200 --> 00:16:05.360 They actually have a new the whole nuclear triad. They 285 00:16:05.360 --> 00:16:11.480 have sea land obviously in air launched, so they're way 286 00:16:11.519 --> 00:16:18.919 more sophisticated nuclear in the military than Pakistan. But yeah, 287 00:16:18.960 --> 00:16:21.480 I mean we did a study we had to do. 288 00:16:22.120 --> 00:16:24.919 Me and Eric did a talk on it. So we 289 00:16:25.000 --> 00:16:28.000 looked at all the stuff on a limited exchange between 290 00:16:28.000 --> 00:16:33.600 India and Pakistan on a nuclear front. It's like catastrophic crown. Yeah, yeah, 291 00:16:33.639 --> 00:16:37.159 I mean, it's way way more impactful than you think. 292 00:16:37.679 --> 00:16:37.960 Yeah. 293 00:16:38.120 --> 00:16:41.600 You know, it's like the global temperature drops three degrees. 294 00:16:43.120 --> 00:16:45.080 It doesn't sound like too much, but it is, and 295 00:16:45.159 --> 00:16:51.360 like crop productions plummets, people start starving, melts down, and 296 00:16:51.399 --> 00:16:56.360 it's it's it sounds hyperbolic, but every everywhere we looked 297 00:16:56.519 --> 00:16:59.679 and then validated, people are like, oh, yeah, that's what's 298 00:16:59.720 --> 00:17:02.960 gonna I mean, it's just so it's not just going 299 00:17:03.039 --> 00:17:04.519 to be Wow, it sucks to be over in any 300 00:17:04.519 --> 00:17:07.880 of Pakistan's or here it comes, it's just a wave. 301 00:17:08.759 --> 00:17:13.400 You know, it's going to get dark, dim, cold, produce 302 00:17:13.440 --> 00:17:14.160 goes way down. 303 00:17:14.759 --> 00:17:14.960 Yeah. 304 00:17:15.880 --> 00:17:18.160 Louis Reeda mentioned it, and when we had a mom 305 00:17:18.160 --> 00:17:21.200 Me and Jack on aizon that they did like models 306 00:17:21.279 --> 00:17:24.000 that if Indian Pakistan used twenty five percent of their 307 00:17:24.079 --> 00:17:28.039 arsenal against each other, these things would happen, and it 308 00:17:28.039 --> 00:17:32.119 would affect the United States in terms of crops, millions 309 00:17:32.119 --> 00:17:35.240 of people, Like millions of people die in the United States, 310 00:17:35.559 --> 00:17:38.599 right like because we think, oh, Indian Pakistan, it's you know, 311 00:17:38.960 --> 00:17:41.240 ten thousand miles away or whatever, like we don't even 312 00:17:41.240 --> 00:17:43.440 think about it, like, oh, it won't nothing will affect us, 313 00:17:43.480 --> 00:17:49.720 but it most obviously certainly would. Yeah, hopefully they do 314 00:17:49.920 --> 00:17:53.359 bring them both back from the brink and cooler heads 315 00:17:53.400 --> 00:17:57.720 prevail and we can start worrying about you know, other stuff. 316 00:17:58.720 --> 00:18:01.440 All right, As it's Jack, I just want to talk 317 00:18:01.480 --> 00:18:03.319 to you for a moment about how you can support 318 00:18:03.359 --> 00:18:06.160 the show. If you've been watching it, enjoying it, but 319 00:18:06.240 --> 00:18:08.000 you'd like to get a little bit more involved and 320 00:18:08.039 --> 00:18:10.519 help us continue to do this. You can check out 321 00:18:10.519 --> 00:18:14.640 our Patreon It is patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse, 322 00:18:15.119 --> 00:18:18.160 and for five dollars a month you can get access 323 00:18:18.240 --> 00:18:21.519 to all of these episodes of The Teamhouse ad free. 324 00:18:22.039 --> 00:18:23.039 The same goes with. 325 00:18:23.000 --> 00:18:26.799 Our affiliated podcast eyes On with Andy Milburn, Jason Lyons 326 00:18:26.920 --> 00:18:30.119 mcmulroy that one you will also get all of those 327 00:18:30.160 --> 00:18:34.920 episodes ad free, and you support the channel and the show, 328 00:18:34.960 --> 00:18:38.440 and we really appreciate it. The Patreon members are literally 329 00:18:38.880 --> 00:18:43.559 what has helped this company, this small business survive, especially 330 00:18:43.640 --> 00:18:46.920 during our early years, and you are what continues to 331 00:18:46.920 --> 00:18:50.960 help this thing going even as we navigate the turbulent 332 00:18:51.000 --> 00:18:52.599 world of YouTube advertising. 333 00:18:52.839 --> 00:18:54.640 So we really appreciate all of you guys. 334 00:18:55.519 --> 00:18:57.160 There's going to be a link down in the description 335 00:18:57.279 --> 00:19:00.759 to that Patreon page, and there is also going to 336 00:19:00.799 --> 00:19:03.599 be a link to our new merch shop, so if 337 00:19:03.599 --> 00:19:06.000 you guys want to go and get some Teamhouse merchandise. 338 00:19:06.039 --> 00:19:09.599 We got stickers and we also have patches, and I 339 00:19:09.599 --> 00:19:12.559 should mention if you sign up for Patreon at ten 340 00:19:12.599 --> 00:19:14.920 dollars a month, we will mail you this patch as well, 341 00:19:16.359 --> 00:19:19.759 so we really appreciate that. But they're also for sale 342 00:19:19.799 --> 00:19:23.400 on the merch shop. And additionally, they got t shirts 343 00:19:23.480 --> 00:19:28.200 up there, water bottles, a tote bag, coffee mugs, all 344 00:19:28.200 --> 00:19:30.960 that good stuff, So please go and check them out 345 00:19:31.000 --> 00:19:31.920 and support the show. 346 00:19:32.480 --> 00:19:34.119 We really appreciate it, guys. Thank you. 347 00:19:36.640 --> 00:19:40.640 Interesting what happened last night one am local time in Moscow. 348 00:19:42.559 --> 00:19:47.200 President Putlin had an address to the country and the 349 00:19:47.240 --> 00:19:52.599 basic measle scent of the address was that he wants 350 00:19:52.599 --> 00:19:55.839 to cease fire is open to talking to the Ukrainians 351 00:19:55.920 --> 00:20:01.759 more bilaterally rather than with the US, or I guess 352 00:20:01.759 --> 00:20:04.279 having the US there, but you know, more face to 353 00:20:04.359 --> 00:20:06.920 face with the Ukrainians instead of having like the mediator 354 00:20:07.279 --> 00:20:09.119 that runs in from one room to the other like 355 00:20:09.160 --> 00:20:14.039 we've been seeing with the Iran talks. I just being 356 00:20:14.160 --> 00:20:17.000 the cynical person that I am, is gonna say I 357 00:20:17.000 --> 00:20:19.359 feel like that's bullshit and like anything that Putin said, 358 00:20:19.359 --> 00:20:21.000 I mean, I'm sure he wants to cease far because 359 00:20:21.519 --> 00:20:24.000 his army is in a meat grinder. 360 00:20:24.160 --> 00:20:26.680 But uh, you know, I can't. You can't. I don't 361 00:20:26.720 --> 00:20:28.920 know if you can really trust exactly what Putin says. 362 00:20:29.359 --> 00:20:35.240 M you cannot, Yeah, trust what Putin says. I think 363 00:20:35.359 --> 00:20:37.599 it's if looking at it as a positive, it shows 364 00:20:37.680 --> 00:20:40.519 he's getting pressure, right, he sees Now it's not just 365 00:20:40.599 --> 00:20:46.400 the US who seems to have shifted their position on 366 00:20:46.440 --> 00:20:49.359 this whole thing, particularly after the signing of the Investment 367 00:20:49.680 --> 00:20:53.720 Fund agreement, and now looks like and we've turned back 368 00:20:53.759 --> 00:20:57.599 on military aid and potentially we might increase it, which 369 00:20:57.640 --> 00:21:00.960 we should absolutely hundred percent. And now they have this 370 00:21:01.039 --> 00:21:05.839 coalition of the willing in Europe, Germany, France, UK and Poland. 371 00:21:06.480 --> 00:21:11.039 Essentially saying times up, agree to a cease fire without 372 00:21:11.039 --> 00:21:15.960 any conditions, or they're going to impose additional sanctions. So 373 00:21:17.160 --> 00:21:19.720 that's what Putin understands strength, right he does. Yeah, you 374 00:21:19.759 --> 00:21:22.480 can kiss up to him and say all these great 375 00:21:22.480 --> 00:21:25.359 things about him and thanks for the lovely painting and 376 00:21:25.400 --> 00:21:27.480 all that stuff. None of that stuff matters to him. 377 00:21:27.519 --> 00:21:30.640 It's it's just a way to manipulate people. But when 378 00:21:30.640 --> 00:21:34.480 he hears oh, man, so secondary sanctions would cut off 379 00:21:34.519 --> 00:21:38.839 potentially Indian China for buying my oil. That's going to hurt, 380 00:21:39.559 --> 00:21:42.039 right that, Oh, the three hundred and twenty five billion 381 00:21:42.079 --> 00:21:46.519 dollars worth of your Russian funding, that's certain in Brussels 382 00:21:47.160 --> 00:21:49.680 they're going to start giving away thirty billion dollars at 383 00:21:49.680 --> 00:21:51.680 a time to Ukraine. That's going to hurt. This is 384 00:21:51.680 --> 00:21:54.279 what needs to happen, not threatened. I mean he he 385 00:21:54.359 --> 00:21:57.119 either like they should have a deadline. We I think 386 00:21:57.759 --> 00:22:01.200 President Zelensky just said like Monday, So like you agree 387 00:22:01.240 --> 00:22:04.519 by Monday to a thirty day unconditional or these things 388 00:22:04.559 --> 00:22:07.279 need to happen, and that's the only consequences he gets. 389 00:22:07.599 --> 00:22:09.160 That's why he got up at one in the morning. 390 00:22:09.440 --> 00:22:13.000 He wanted to throw something out there. Oh okay, maybe 391 00:22:13.000 --> 00:22:15.680 he really wants to do this, and then two weeks 392 00:22:15.759 --> 00:22:17.640 later it'll be like, oh, it never happened, or he'll 393 00:22:17.680 --> 00:22:19.200 declare a unilaterals he's fired. 394 00:22:19.200 --> 00:22:19.920 Than violate it. 395 00:22:21.119 --> 00:22:23.400 It's got to be you know, it doesn't have to 396 00:22:23.400 --> 00:22:25.119 be thirty days, but I think thirty days is what 397 00:22:25.200 --> 00:22:30.960 we should require. That's when negotiations start. Yeah, it's really 398 00:22:30.960 --> 00:22:34.759 hard to negotiate when you're fighting because anything could happen 399 00:22:34.759 --> 00:22:39.359 that we'll just completely rupture the discussion. So I think 400 00:22:39.400 --> 00:22:42.400 the US and Europe are coming together, which is a positive, 401 00:22:42.720 --> 00:22:45.319