Speaker 1: Hey, it's Alex here. Today is July twenty ninth, twenty
Speaker 1: twenty six. By the end of this episode, you'll see
Speaker 1: why institutional on ramps and founder risk are the two
Speaker 1: threads pulling crypto in opposite directions. I know it's been
Speaker 1: a weird summer for your portfolio, so let's make sense
Speaker 1: of the noise together. But first, a quick word from
Speaker 1: our sponsor. Okay, so here's what's happening. Morgan Stanley just
Speaker 1: launched Ethereum and solana etf products with fees under one percent.
Speaker 1: That's the cheapest institutional on ramp yet for those two coins.
Speaker 1: Markets were pretty quiet today. We're still in a bear
Speaker 1: market per the Token Metrics indicator, but no major coin
Speaker 1: moved more than a few percent. Bitcoin held around sixty
Speaker 1: four thousand dollars and total crypto values stayed near two
Speaker 1: point three trillion. Stable Coin supply slipped a touch, which
Speaker 1: matters because less cash on the sidelines means thinner buying
Speaker 1: zero knowledge. Zero knowledge is the strongest narrative today, down
Speaker 1: only a little over seven days. Humanity is the top
Speaker 1: coin in that sector, up about fifteen percent over seven days.
Speaker 1: The strength is concentrated, not broad Solana is trading near
Speaker 1: seventy four dollars and fell about five percent over the
Speaker 1: last seven days. The broader structure still leans lower, with
Speaker 1: support a few percent below and resistance about eight percent above.
Speaker 1: Momentum is mixed, so watch for follow through before trusting
Speaker 1: any bounce. If you want to see the exact levels
Speaker 1: and what would break this cautious read, we map it
Speaker 1: all in the monthly playbook. Alpha subscribers got the full
Speaker 1: setup and risk levels for this in the monthly playbook.
Speaker 1: Tokenmetrics dot Com fourteen days free prediction. Markets are leaning
Speaker 1: cautious into month end. First, polymarket betters give about a
Speaker 1: one to three chance Bitcoin dips to sixty three thousand
Speaker 1: dollars in July. That read would flip if we get
Speaker 1: a dubvish fed surprise. Second, there's roughly a one in
Speaker 1: five chance Solana falls to seventy dollars this month, reflecting
Speaker 1: the same cautious sentiment. Link and show notes for the markets.
Speaker 1: Emirates now lets customers in the UAE book flights using
Speaker 1: crypto dot com pay. This is the adoption story that
Speaker 1: actually moves the needle, not some token launch. When normies
Speaker 1: can pay for flights with stable coins, the crypto has
Speaker 1: no utility. Crowd goes quiet. The second order point is
Speaker 1: real world use cases pull in users who never plan
Speaker 1: to trade coins. Watch if Emirates expands this beyond UAE
Speaker 1: within thirty days. If it stays geo fenced, it's just
Speaker 1: a pr move. Russia charged Telegram founder Pavel Durov with
Speaker 1: aiding terrorism and issued an arrest warrant. The same founder
Speaker 1: whose token ton rallied on decentralization hopes, now faces a
Speaker 1: major state label that raises custody in exchange, delisting risk
Speaker 1: for any asset tied to his name. The takeaway is
Speaker 1: jurisdictional friction can hit coins overnight. If exchanges halt ton
Speaker 1: trading or freeze wallets within forty eight hours, Regulatory contagion
Speaker 1: is real. If market shrug crypto has priced in founder risk.
Speaker 1: Finance launched gold and silver options after its commodity futures
Speaker 1: pulled in billions daily. The largest crypto venue is becoming
Speaker 1: a mini commodities desk. This pulls traditional macro traders in
Speaker 1: without them touching a token, widening Finance's mote. Why this
Speaker 1: matters is infrastructure creep like this meets retail, where they
Speaker 1: already are. If option volume hits ten billion dollars daily
Speaker 1: in a month, finance rivals traditional metals venues. If volume stalls,
Speaker 1: it's a sideshow. Ionic Digital jumped twenty six percent in
Speaker 1: its NASDAC debut, giving Celsius creditors an exit. The bankruptcy
Speaker 1: estate turned into a public company, and traders bit it up.
Speaker 1: This is the first clean exit out for Celsia's claimholders
Speaker 1: since the collapse. It also shows public markets still reward
Speaker 1: crypto adjacent mining with an AI pivot. If Ionic holds
Speaker 1: gains above debut price for five days, the bankruptcy overhang
Speaker 1: trade is alive. If it fades, creditors rush for the door.
Speaker 1: Apple got sued after a fake iPhone wallet app drain
Speaker 1: one point eight million dollars in bitcoin. A trillion dollar
Speaker 1: gatekeeper Ignoring scam apps is the easiest attack vector for
Speaker 1: crypto newcomers. Custody hygiene beats chasing alpha when gatekeepers let
Speaker 1: bad apps through. The lesson is your own wallet safety
Speaker 1: matters more than headline trades. If the lawsuit forces app
Speaker 1: store crypto app audits within sixty days, onboarding gets safer.
Speaker 1: If Apple wins easily, the scam surface stays wide. All right,
Speaker 1: before we get into the risks, quick word from our sponsor. Okay,
Speaker 1: we're back. Let's talk about what to watch for. First,
Speaker 1: sentiment is stuck in fear. The Fear and Greed Index
Speaker 1: sits at twenty nine, and retail is absent while the
Speaker 1: largest corporate buyer stays sidelined. Second, liquidity is tightening. Stable
Speaker 1: coin supply dipped less than one percent in a day,
Speaker 1: leaving less cash on the sidelines. Third, the setup is
Speaker 1: fragile because buyers are picky amid shrinking stable coins and
Speaker 1: founder risks like Durav's charge, add delisting wild cards. The
Speaker 1: reed changes if the Fed hints at cuts and stable
Speaker 1: coin supply turns up within seven days. First, the FED
Speaker 1: interest rate decision lands Wednesday, July twenty ninth. Rate stance
Speaker 1: dictates risk appetite, and crypto wants a dubvish signal to
Speaker 1: break its range. Second, bankless Fanatics buys a CFTC regulated
Speaker 1: exchange this week, pushing prediction markets into tradfi. Third, a
Speaker 1: judge blocked Minnesota's prediction market ban on a rolling basis,
Speaker 1: a win for retail betting. Access Watch whether ethereum and
Speaker 1: a lot of ETP flows materialize after the FED decision,
Speaker 1: while stable coin supply reverses its slide. For those of
Speaker 1: you who are serious about your portfolio, Token Metrics Roundtable
Speaker 1: gives you private AI portfolio reviews, live monthly discussions, and
Speaker 1: everything in our alpha plan. Head to tokenmetrics dot com
Speaker 1: to see if it's a fit. This is educational content,
Speaker 1: notn investment advice. Always do your own research. I'm Alex,
Speaker 1: See you next time.