Speaker 1: That's Prince and I'm Tavis, and I'm glad to have
Speaker 1: you with us in this third and final out of
Speaker 1: our program. Two conversations in this hour. As promised. On
Speaker 1: the backside, we will talk to Ernest Harden Junior. He
Speaker 1: is Immy nominated right about now, veteran actor nominated for
Speaker 1: his Outstanding guest appearance on the HBO Max hit medical
Speaker 1: drama The Pit. I haven't seen Ernest Harden jun in
Speaker 1: a long time, so he's coming in the studio on
Speaker 1: the back half of this hour to wrap our program today.
Speaker 1: Will celebrate Ernest and this Emmy nomination. I A'm mad
Speaker 1: at him, but we commenced this hour with our friend
Speaker 1: and brother, Galen Drew will take the political prediction market
Speaker 1: to task here in a moment with Galen of a
Speaker 1: gd politics podcast, and I'm glad to have getting back Jiden.
Speaker 2: How are you, sir, I'm good. Thanks so much for
Speaker 2: having me.
Speaker 1: It's good to hear your voice. Thanks for your time.
Speaker 1: Let me just we would talk about a few political
Speaker 1: issues earlier today, and I want to just circle back
Speaker 1: to one or two of those right quick, just to
Speaker 1: get your get your your read on it. Then we'll
Speaker 1: push forward to this uh. This uh, this this prediction
Speaker 1: market that seems to still get stuff wrong, even after
Speaker 1: all these years of of uh hopefully getting better at
Speaker 1: the at the polls that we that we take. UH.
Speaker 1: We were talking earlier about a couple of things. One
Speaker 1: let me start with the Democratic Convention. They've narrowed down
Speaker 1: the final three cities where they're going to meet, so Philadelphia, Boston,
Speaker 1: and Denver. We talked about this in the first hour
Speaker 1: of our program. I said, then I say in this
Speaker 1: hour now, I'm not so sure that the cities matter.
Speaker 1: These days, these races come down to a number of
Speaker 1: swing states, and as you well know better than most
Speaker 1: of us, a few districts inside those swing states. And
Speaker 1: there's all this consternation about where the convention is going
Speaker 1: to be held. Atlanta was bypassed. The black mayor of
Speaker 1: Atlanta has said it's a slap in the face to
Speaker 1: black voters. So now there's another squabble up inside the
Speaker 1: Democratic Party. I'm just not so sure that location, uh
Speaker 1: makes the difference that it used to make. And yet
Speaker 1: here we are talking about where the Democratic which is
Speaker 1: going to be when we know it comes down to
Speaker 1: swing states and a few districts wants again in those states.
Speaker 1: That's my read? What's your read?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I fig you're exactly right. Folks will remember how
Speaker 2: in twenty sixteen, Democrats held the national Convention in Philadelphia
Speaker 2: that summer, and of course Hillary Clinton went on to
Speaker 2: win Pennsylvania. Oh wait, sorry, she lost Pennsylvania. So yeah,
Speaker 2: you're right. Where these conventions are ultimately held don't matter.
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not even sure how much the convention
Speaker 2: itself really moves voters. In the middle of the summer.
Speaker 2: The people who are going to be paying attention to
Speaker 2: political content like this are probably going to be people
Speaker 2: who pay so much attention to politics that they already
Speaker 2: have a good sense of who they're going to vote for.
Speaker 2: Right Like your marginal swing voter who doesn't pay that
Speaker 2: much attention to politics and doesn't have a strong opinion on,
Speaker 2: you know, a public option for healthcare or what to
Speaker 2: do on immigration. That person is probably not tuning into
Speaker 2: a whole bunch of political speeches in the middle of
Speaker 2: the summer. They're at the beach, they're taking care of
Speaker 2: their kids, they're visiting their family. So I think that
Speaker 2: these can be like fun set pieces, and the media
Speaker 2: gets really excited and the party gets really excited. If anything,
Speaker 2: what these helped do. I mean, you mentioned Denver, and
Speaker 2: folks might remember that in two thousand and eight, the
Speaker 2: National Democratic Convention was in Denver, and it was a
Speaker 2: really big moment for Barack Obama becoming the first black
Speaker 2: nominee of the party, and there was a lot of
Speaker 2: excitement around him. And so I think if you do
Speaker 2: have a candidate who achieves something of the celebrity status
Speaker 2: that Barack Obama did in two thousand and eight, it
Speaker 2: can help drive enthusiasm and excitement, and it maybe help
Speaker 2: sets the tone narratively in the media, and then that
Speaker 2: sprinkles or trickles down to the voters. But I think
Speaker 2: the convention itself, you'd be hard pressed to say, oh,
Speaker 2: you know, Donald Trump had a really good convention twenty
Speaker 2: twenty four in Milwaukee, and that's why he ended up
Speaker 2: winning the twenty twenty four presidential election. I don't think
Speaker 2: anybody would claim.
Speaker 1: That we'll pick up on Gataen's phraseology when we come
Speaker 1: forward here of setting the tone in the media. I
Speaker 1: wonder if he thinks that Donald Trump's convention the first
Speaker 1: time ever Republicans have held a mid term convention. As
Speaker 1: I mentioned earlier, they have chosen Dallas. Speaking of site locations,
Speaker 1: they've chosen Dallas September ninth and tenth. It is still
Speaker 1: not dead of summer. Once you get past Labor Day,
Speaker 1: things start to quiet down a little bit. But we
Speaker 1: are we're gonna be forced to pay attention to this
Speaker 1: convention September nine and ten. In that eight week sprint
Speaker 1: from labor Day to election day. There's the reason why
Speaker 1: they waited till September, not August to do this their
Speaker 1: right smack dab in that eight week sprint again, from
Speaker 1: Labor Day to the election day, will that convention set
Speaker 1: the tone in any way in the media and beyond
Speaker 1: for Republicans to, if not put off on upset in November,
Speaker 1: at least out the blood letting that many people expect.
Speaker 1: We'll talk about that with Galen and a great deal
Speaker 1: more when we come forward on Tavias Smiley and Galen
Speaker 1: Drew one of the best in the business in the
Speaker 1: political business. He is the host of the non partisan
Speaker 1: podcast gd Politics and always pleased to be in a
Speaker 1: conversation with him. We were talking a moment ago about
Speaker 1: the Democratic Convention Democrats have now narrowed their list down
Speaker 1: to three cities. They've been there before. I've been to
Speaker 1: all three in my career covering the Democratic Party. Boston, Philadelphia,
Speaker 1: and Denver. Of course, Denver's Galen said where Obama was
Speaker 1: when he accepted the nomination. You recall he did it
Speaker 1: on August twenty eighth, the day of the anniversary of
Speaker 1: the March on Washington, so his historic moment black nominee
Speaker 1: on August twenty eight, also the same day they murdered
Speaker 1: him at Tills. There's a lot happening in that particular
Speaker 1: day in Denver, and I was sitting there with Dr
Speaker 1: Cornell West and Muhammad Ali, and never forget, as long
Speaker 1: as I live, I'm sitting between Doc and Ali the
Speaker 1: champ at that speech. A great moment in my life
Speaker 1: to be sitting between those two guys. But they've narrowed
Speaker 1: it down those three cities. Atlanta did not make the
Speaker 1: final list, and the mayor, the black mayor of Atlanta,
Speaker 1: but Andrea had something to say about it, suggesting that
Speaker 1: it's a diss to black voters that they didn't choose
Speaker 1: Atlanta in a year where you're gonna need twenty twenty eight,
Speaker 1: you're gonna need the black base to help save this party.
Speaker 1: But that conversation continues them again just another example of
Speaker 1: another squabble up. As I said earlier inside the Democratic Party.
Speaker 1: All that said, that's what we were talking about. Now,
Speaker 1: I want to add this to the docket. Galen, So,
Speaker 1: Donald Trump and Republicans. By the way, Gayta and I
Speaker 1: both agree that the city doesn't even matter so much
Speaker 1: these days. Nobody's you know, really tapped in in that way.
Speaker 1: And as I said earlier, and I think Gaden agrees
Speaker 1: that these these races at the national level come down
Speaker 1: to a handful of spring states, a handful of districts
Speaker 1: in those swing states, So wherever you are doesn't really
Speaker 1: make a difference. In Gayta and that the best joke
Speaker 1: of the day, best line of the day about Hillary
Speaker 1: Clinton in Philadelphia. They went to Philadelphia her convention where
Speaker 1: she got the nomination, and she went on to lose
Speaker 1: the state of Pennsylvania. So doesn't really matter who knows.
Speaker 1: But Donald Trump has decided that they're going to do
Speaker 1: something they've never done before, Republicans, that is meeting in Dallas,
Speaker 1: Texas September nine and ten, in smack dab or I
Speaker 1: shouldn't say smack dab at the outset really of that
Speaker 1: eight week sprint from labor day to the election day
Speaker 1: they're going to Texas. Democrats have not responded in kind
Speaker 1: with a midterm convention that I am aware of Galen,
Speaker 1: but it does mean that for a couple of days,
Speaker 1: not that he didn't dominate the news every day anyway,
Speaker 1: but for a couple of days, their party, their platform,
Speaker 1: their issues will be dominating the news. Is it going
Speaker 1: to rally the base? Will it make a difference.
Speaker 2: I don't think it will make a difference. And I
Speaker 2: think if most political advisors were advising the Republican Party
Speaker 2: on this, they tell them, maybe don't hold this convention.
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know. There's a way I guess
Speaker 2: you can do it. That you could try to highlight
Speaker 2: areas where the public views the Republican Party positively. The
Speaker 2: problem is, there just aren't that many areas in polling
Speaker 2: right now that suggest the public views Republicans positively. So like,
Speaker 2: on one hand, okay, people have soured on the economy,
Speaker 2: on inflation, on immigration enforcement and the like, So maybe
Speaker 2: you would say, okay, we really need to get people
Speaker 2: excited about President Trump. Right, He's got all of these
Speaker 2: people who support him who don't necessarily turn out in
Speaker 2: midterm years, and we're going to focus a lot on
Speaker 2: Trump and get people really riled up to go vote,
Speaker 2: you know, once early voting starts and in November and the like.
Speaker 2: The problem is President Trump is historically unpopular. He's net
Speaker 2: negative twenty points underwater. And so if you put on
Speaker 2: a big affair reminding everybody about Donald Trump and everything
Speaker 2: about him and that he's in the White House right now,
Speaker 2: I mean, you may get a few extra Republican voters
Speaker 2: to turn out who might otherwise have stayed home because
Speaker 2: they're really only in the party for Trump. But at
Speaker 2: the same time, you're probably going to activate a bunch
Speaker 2: of either independent or Democrats who don't like the president.
Speaker 2: And there are far more Americans who don't like the president.
Speaker 2: Of it then like the president. You could argue for
Speaker 2: the alternative and you could say, hey, there's too much
Speaker 2: focus on the unpopularity of Trump. We really want to
Speaker 2: focus on the issues. Well, what do people care most about?
Speaker 2: The economy?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 2: Trump is thirty percentage points underwater on the economy and inflation,
Speaker 2: and so Okay, well, are we then going to focus
Speaker 2: on foreign policy? I mean, vir war and war is unpopular,
Speaker 2: so like it's going to be difficult to pick a
Speaker 2: topic where you can really hammer the Democrats. I mean,
Speaker 2: if I was advising them as a Republican strategist, I
Speaker 2: would say, maybe the border. You can celebrate how the
Speaker 2: border has been secured under Trump. That's popular. You can
Speaker 2: talk about areas where Democrats are unpopular, maybe on some
Speaker 2: trans issues or you know, some policing or crime issues.
Speaker 2: But the thing is that's not at the top of
Speaker 2: voter's list right now. So if you put on a
Speaker 2: convention and all you're talking about is crime and trans people,
Speaker 2: I think you will also send voters the sense that like, oh,
Speaker 2: you don't actually care about my number one issue right now.
Speaker 1: Yep. I was about to ask you, and you are
Speaker 1: pressing and prophetic. I was about to ask you, what
Speaker 1: should they lean in on, given that he's unpopular domestically
Speaker 1: and nobody cares about this Iran war carries for rather
Speaker 1: this Iran war. You've answered that question, But let me
Speaker 1: take a step further here though, in terms of leaning
Speaker 1: in I'm thinking out loud here. There are some interesting
Speaker 1: I'm putting that word in air quotes. There's some interesting
Speaker 1: candidates that they have in these midterms. I can see
Speaker 1: them showcasing, if you will, some of the candidates they
Speaker 1: have over and against these DSA candidates who they call,
Speaker 1: you know, gihattist and communists, et cetera, et cetera. I'm
Speaker 1: thinking of people like Byron Donald's in Florida, a black
Speaker 1: guy running for governor, John James and Michigan a black
Speaker 1: guy running for governor. There are others. Is that perhaps
Speaker 1: one of the frames they are to operate inside of
Speaker 1: just showcasing their talent, as it were, in the midterm elections,
Speaker 1: beyond even Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: I think that's a really good point, and I think
Speaker 2: that's certainly going to be a big part of it.
Speaker 2: I mean, Mike Rogers, I think we're going to hear
Speaker 2: a lot about him. Right again, I don't know what
Speaker 2: the lineup is for the convention. Mike Rodgers, the Republican
Speaker 2: senator is sorry, the Republican senatorial nominee in Michigan is
Speaker 2: running against Democratic nominee Abdul Elsa Ed. Of course, he's
Speaker 2: not a member of the DSA, but he's quite progressive
Speaker 2: and aligned with a lot of things that the Socialists
Speaker 2: are aligned on. And currently, although Michigan you would expect
Speaker 2: from the political environment to be quite blue right now,
Speaker 2: Mike Rogers is leading in early polling, and so that
Speaker 2: that is certainly I would say that in that race,
Speaker 2: Democrats have a weaker candidate than they would have wanted,
Speaker 2: and Republicans have a rather strong candidate. You know, Mike
Speaker 2: Rogers lived out most of his political career before Trump
Speaker 2: was ever in office, and so he can claim to
Speaker 2: be a kind of pre Trump Republican who you know,
Speaker 2: doesn't dabble in all of the craziness and et cetera,
Speaker 2: et cetera, et cetera, and try to appeal to more
Speaker 2: independent or moderate voters in Michigan. I imagine that that
Speaker 2: he's going to be somebody who you know, gets a
Speaker 2: primetime slot. I think the same with Bira Donalds. Again,
Speaker 2: I don't think they would focus too much on Florida
Speaker 2: because I don't think Republicans really fear Democrats in the
Speaker 2: state of Florida anymore. But certainly, I mean Texas will
Speaker 2: be an interesting one, right because the convention is going
Speaker 2: to be in Dallas. They're going to be facing off
Speaker 2: against James Tallerico, the Democrat at the top of the ballot.
Speaker 2: But they don't have a particularly strong Republican candidate in
Speaker 2: that Senate race, and so you know, who are they
Speaker 2: going to put forward there? Maybe Greg Abbott, the governor,
Speaker 2: who is perhaps a bit more popular and expected, I think,
Speaker 2: expected to win his race even if James Tyllerico were
Speaker 2: to win. And so if you go state by state,
Speaker 2: I think they really will be trying to I mean,
Speaker 2: Susan Collins is certainly somebody that they'll be trying to highlight,
Speaker 2: to try to give people the sense you're right that
Speaker 2: you know this is the party is not extreme. The
Speaker 2: party is not just Donald Trump. The party is these
Speaker 2: other people as well, and then at the same time
Speaker 2: try to remind folks, hey, the Democrats are the crazy ones,
Speaker 2: They're the extremists, et cetera, et cetera.
Speaker 1: No, I think, I think, I think the agenda if
Speaker 1: I'm if I'm running the convention, I'm not. Uh, I
Speaker 1: know it would be. But if I'm running it, I'm
Speaker 1: going to spend all my time clowning DSA. I'm going
Speaker 1: to clown these progressives. I'm gonna remind you that they're
Speaker 1: they're taking America down a rabbit hole and a direction
Speaker 1: that we really don't want to go. That throughout a
Speaker 1: step and out of touch with your values, et cetera,
Speaker 1: et cetera. Uh. And to your point about Texas, I
Speaker 1: just read today a couple of different prognosticators have put
Speaker 1: Iowa in Texas. Now, those races, the Senate races, in
Speaker 1: the toss up category. So to your point about tall Rico,
Speaker 1: he has a shot in Texas, and so they Abbousie
Speaker 1: are in Dallas for this convention. They need to shore
Speaker 1: up whatever chances they're going to have to win this race,
Speaker 1: the Senate race in Texas that is. But again Iowa
Speaker 1: and Texas I was reading today a couple of folk
Speaker 1: have not put in the sort of toss up category.
Speaker 1: But I just I spend my time clowning the DSA
Speaker 1: and advancing and promoting rather the candidates that that we
Speaker 1: have that I think are more in touch with the
Speaker 1: ethics and values of the typical American voter. All that said,
Speaker 1: to what extent to your mind, is Trump the ticket?
Speaker 1: Or put another way, is Trump still on the ticket
Speaker 1: even though we know he's not literally on the ticket.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, that's how politics works. Right at the
Speaker 2: end of the day, Trumps president. If people are mad
Speaker 2: with how the country is going, he's the most obvious
Speaker 2: target of people's ire and you can change the subject.
Speaker 2: And Americans have become more partisans, so there are a
Speaker 2: lot of and also the parties have become more extreme.
Speaker 2: I mean, when they talk about things that the DSA says,
Speaker 2: they're not necessarily going to be making things up. They
Speaker 2: may well be talking about positions that the DSA takes
Speaker 2: that are out of step with the majority of Americans.
Speaker 2: And so to the extent that that's the case, Democrats
Speaker 2: have put themselves in a worse position than they might
Speaker 2: otherwise have been in had they not gone down that path.
Speaker 2: At the same time, nobody in DSA is running the
Speaker 2: federal government, and so it's going to be hard to
Speaker 2: convince people that, you know, somebody in New York City
Speaker 2: or even one candidate in Michigan. Right, maybe abdua Elsie
Speaker 2: will lose again he's not part of the DSA. Maybe
Speaker 2: he'll lose, But that doesn't now necessarily mean that, say,
Speaker 2: you know, Democrats will lose in Texas and Iowa and
Speaker 2: Maine and North Carolina, and elsewhere. A real sort of
Speaker 2: important piece for Democrats this cycle is differentiating themselves from
Speaker 2: the National Democratic Party. Like, if you look at the
Speaker 2: popularity of the Republican Party and Democratic Party right now,
Speaker 2: Democrats are still a little bit less popular than the
Speaker 2: Republican Party. So I don't think anybody is trying to
Speaker 2: who wants to win a competitive election is trying to
Speaker 2: cast their lot with the Democratic Party. They're trying to say,
Speaker 2: I'm an independent thinker, I go against my party when
Speaker 2: it suits the state, that kind of thing. And so
Speaker 2: you know, I think both both Democrats and Republicans in
Speaker 2: competitive states are going to be running against their own
Speaker 2: party and their own leadership, right Republican You've even seen
Speaker 2: this with Steve Hilton in California who said, you know,
Speaker 2: you can hate Trump and still vote for me. I mean,
Speaker 2: he's not going to win the gubernatorial race in California,
Speaker 2: But like that's the kind of message that people that
Speaker 2: Republicans in difficult races are going to want to send,
Speaker 2: which is, even if you're frustrated with the current president,
Speaker 2: you can vote for me. By the same token, Democrats
Speaker 2: will be saying, even if you're frustrated with the Democratic Party.
Speaker 2: I am still going to be looking out for your
Speaker 2: best interests, you know, Democratic voters in Iowa.
Speaker 1: We're doing a big event here in LA with those
Speaker 1: in LA have already in California as they are hearing
Speaker 1: about it. A big event here in LA on October third,
Speaker 1: featuring all the candidates running for statewide office, a governor
Speaker 1: on down. Steve Hilton, aforementioned by Galen Droup will be there,
Speaker 1: as will have Yourbasara and all the others running for
Speaker 1: state wide office, including I should say, in addition to that,
Speaker 1: we'll have the mayorl candidates here in La, Karen Bass,
Speaker 1: Nathie Rahman, the Sheriff's candidates here in La, Luneeva and Luna,
Speaker 1: the city attorney candidates here in La. Roy and McKinney.
Speaker 1: Everybody joining us on October third for our big event.
Speaker 1: Check out any of our socials to read more about
Speaker 1: this all day event that we're going to be broadcasting
Speaker 1: live on this radio station, live streaming, and I'm pleased
Speaker 1: to announce that c SPAN is tapping as well to
Speaker 1: cover this gathering on that day. Gonna be a huge
Speaker 1: day October third for our California Voices, town hall and
Speaker 1: ballot form again. Read more about it online. You don't
Speaker 1: want to miss that. It's gonna be a great day
Speaker 1: here in California, sort of a political Lollapaloosa all day
Speaker 1: long from eight am to five pm. I've got three
Speaker 1: minutes left, gate and let me u the balance of
Speaker 1: my time. As they say in DC, to you, what's
Speaker 1: up with these fake polls that are rocking races, including
Speaker 1: the mayor's racer in LA. And the prediction market got
Speaker 1: it wrong in a few places this time around. Talk
Speaker 1: to me about the prediction market if you will, in
Speaker 1: the three minutes I had left.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So, the bad news is somebody put out a
Speaker 2: fake poll. The good news is that they were caught,
Speaker 2: and that most of the folks who aggregate the polls,
Speaker 2: who create polling averages, never included the fake polsters anyway,
Speaker 2: because they go through a rigorous process of vetting any
Speaker 2: polster that they're going to put into the average. So
Speaker 2: they ask them who's behind the poll, what kind of
Speaker 2: methodology are they using in the like, So I think
Speaker 2: that's important to say. You know, the prediction markets are
Speaker 2: only they're supposed to be the wisdom of the crowds,
Speaker 2: and so they're only as wise as the crowds, and
Speaker 2: most people are. I mean, a couple things happened where
Speaker 2: there was really big polling error in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Speaker 2: And also I think most people don't realize how uncertain
Speaker 2: those polls can be. So just as an example, I mean,
Speaker 2: the polls got it pretty wrong, and there are technical
Speaker 2: reasons why that happened. They were undersampling older voters and
Speaker 2: voters of color within the Democratic Party because so many
Speaker 2: pollsters have leaned into online polls and text messaging polls,
Speaker 2: which makes it harder to reach older people, It makes
Speaker 2: it harder to reach rural people, it makes it harder
Speaker 2: to reach, you know, people who don't just have a
Speaker 2: bunch of time in the middle of the day to
Speaker 2: be answering online polls essentially, And so that's a problem
Speaker 2: that polsters are going to have to figure out. But
Speaker 2: the average error in a statewide primary is twelve points
Speaker 2: and that's the exact error that happened in Michigan. So
Speaker 2: while the pollsters did mess up, it's important to keep
Speaker 2: in mind and I'm talking about primaries here, not general elections.
Speaker 2: Primaries are the most uncertain kind of race you can
Speaker 2: pull because folks can change their mind pretty easily. To
Speaker 2: go to one candidate, from one candidate to the other,
Speaker 2: you're switching from one Democrat to another Democrat. That's an
Speaker 2: easier change to make than to go from a Republican
Speaker 2: to a Democrat or vice versa, which is what happens
Speaker 2: in the general election. So I would say, in order
Speaker 2: to avoid being tricked by these things, pay close attention
Speaker 2: to what kind of race is being pulled. And remember
Speaker 2: the polls have always this is not new, have always
Speaker 2: been prone to error, and some poles in some races
Speaker 2: are more prone than others.
Speaker 1: Gaiden Drewkes around the best at this and that's why
Speaker 1: we keep him on speed Out and get him on
Speaker 1: as often as we can. We'll talk to him a
Speaker 1: few more times, I hope and suspect between now and
Speaker 1: election day. And I'm a third He is host of
Speaker 1: the non Protestant podcast gd Politics. Always grateful to have
Speaker 1: you on the program, getting appreciate your insights, man, and
Speaker 1: enjoy the rest of your day.
Speaker 2: Thanks for having me.
Speaker 1: More of Tavis Smota been we come forward