WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.760 --> 00:00:03.720 That's Prince and I'm Tavis, and I'm glad to have 2 00:00:03.799 --> 00:00:05.599 you with us in this third and final out of 3 00:00:05.599 --> 00:00:09.679 our program. Two conversations in this hour. As promised. On 4 00:00:09.759 --> 00:00:16.440 the backside, we will talk to Ernest Harden Junior. He 5 00:00:16.600 --> 00:00:21.039 is Immy nominated right about now, veteran actor nominated for 6 00:00:21.079 --> 00:00:23.719 his Outstanding guest appearance on the HBO Max hit medical 7 00:00:23.800 --> 00:00:26.719 drama The Pit. I haven't seen Ernest Harden jun in 8 00:00:26.760 --> 00:00:29.000 a long time, so he's coming in the studio on 9 00:00:29.079 --> 00:00:31.359 the back half of this hour to wrap our program today. 10 00:00:31.359 --> 00:00:34.840 Will celebrate Ernest and this Emmy nomination. I A'm mad 11 00:00:34.880 --> 00:00:37.159 at him, but we commenced this hour with our friend 12 00:00:37.159 --> 00:00:41.200 and brother, Galen Drew will take the political prediction market 13 00:00:41.280 --> 00:00:43.520 to task here in a moment with Galen of a 14 00:00:43.600 --> 00:00:47.079 gd politics podcast, and I'm glad to have getting back Jiden. 15 00:00:47.119 --> 00:00:49.880 How are you, sir, I'm good. Thanks so much for 16 00:00:49.880 --> 00:00:50.240 having me. 17 00:00:50.320 --> 00:00:51.799 It's good to hear your voice. Thanks for your time. 18 00:00:52.359 --> 00:00:55.479 Let me just we would talk about a few political 19 00:00:55.479 --> 00:00:58.600 issues earlier today, and I want to just circle back 20 00:00:58.600 --> 00:00:59.719 to one or two of those right quick, just to 21 00:00:59.719 --> 00:01:01.640 get your get your your read on it. Then we'll 22 00:01:01.640 --> 00:01:06.799 push forward to this uh. This uh, this this prediction 23 00:01:06.959 --> 00:01:09.560 market that seems to still get stuff wrong, even after 24 00:01:09.599 --> 00:01:13.640 all these years of of uh hopefully getting better at 25 00:01:13.680 --> 00:01:15.920 the at the polls that we that we take. UH. 26 00:01:16.079 --> 00:01:18.120 We were talking earlier about a couple of things. One 27 00:01:18.200 --> 00:01:20.599 let me start with the Democratic Convention. They've narrowed down 28 00:01:20.640 --> 00:01:25.719 the final three cities where they're going to meet, so Philadelphia, Boston, 29 00:01:25.840 --> 00:01:28.120 and Denver. We talked about this in the first hour 30 00:01:28.159 --> 00:01:30.439 of our program. I said, then I say in this 31 00:01:30.480 --> 00:01:32.719 hour now, I'm not so sure that the cities matter. 32 00:01:32.840 --> 00:01:35.519 These days, these races come down to a number of 33 00:01:35.519 --> 00:01:37.640 swing states, and as you well know better than most 34 00:01:37.680 --> 00:01:40.480 of us, a few districts inside those swing states. And 35 00:01:40.519 --> 00:01:43.359 there's all this consternation about where the convention is going 36 00:01:43.359 --> 00:01:46.079 to be held. Atlanta was bypassed. The black mayor of 37 00:01:46.120 --> 00:01:48.680 Atlanta has said it's a slap in the face to 38 00:01:48.760 --> 00:01:51.560 black voters. So now there's another squabble up inside the 39 00:01:51.599 --> 00:01:55.200 Democratic Party. I'm just not so sure that location, uh 40 00:01:55.439 --> 00:01:58.319 makes the difference that it used to make. And yet 41 00:01:58.400 --> 00:02:00.280 here we are talking about where the Democratic which is 42 00:02:00.319 --> 00:02:02.640 going to be when we know it comes down to 43 00:02:02.760 --> 00:02:05.560 swing states and a few districts wants again in those states. 44 00:02:05.760 --> 00:02:07.079 That's my read? What's your read? 45 00:02:08.560 --> 00:02:11.800 Yeah, I fig you're exactly right. Folks will remember how 46 00:02:12.000 --> 00:02:18.159 in twenty sixteen, Democrats held the national Convention in Philadelphia 47 00:02:18.520 --> 00:02:21.240 that summer, and of course Hillary Clinton went on to 48 00:02:21.280 --> 00:02:26.560 win Pennsylvania. Oh wait, sorry, she lost Pennsylvania. So yeah, 49 00:02:26.599 --> 00:02:30.159 you're right. Where these conventions are ultimately held don't matter. 50 00:02:30.280 --> 00:02:33.120 I mean, I'm not even sure how much the convention 51 00:02:33.280 --> 00:02:36.719 itself really moves voters. In the middle of the summer. 52 00:02:36.759 --> 00:02:38.919 The people who are going to be paying attention to 53 00:02:39.000 --> 00:02:42.719 political content like this are probably going to be people 54 00:02:42.960 --> 00:02:45.960 who pay so much attention to politics that they already 55 00:02:46.000 --> 00:02:49.000 have a good sense of who they're going to vote for. 56 00:02:49.319 --> 00:02:52.400 Right Like your marginal swing voter who doesn't pay that 57 00:02:52.479 --> 00:02:55.879 much attention to politics and doesn't have a strong opinion on, 58 00:02:56.319 --> 00:02:58.439 you know, a public option for healthcare or what to 59 00:02:58.479 --> 00:03:01.960 do on immigration. That person is probably not tuning into 60 00:03:02.039 --> 00:03:03.879 a whole bunch of political speeches in the middle of 61 00:03:03.919 --> 00:03:05.879 the summer. They're at the beach, they're taking care of 62 00:03:05.919 --> 00:03:09.000 their kids, they're visiting their family. So I think that 63 00:03:09.360 --> 00:03:12.360 these can be like fun set pieces, and the media 64 00:03:12.360 --> 00:03:15.759 gets really excited and the party gets really excited. If anything, 65 00:03:16.039 --> 00:03:18.319 what these helped do. I mean, you mentioned Denver, and 66 00:03:18.520 --> 00:03:21.319 folks might remember that in two thousand and eight, the 67 00:03:21.439 --> 00:03:25.800 National Democratic Convention was in Denver, and it was a 68 00:03:25.879 --> 00:03:29.599 really big moment for Barack Obama becoming the first black 69 00:03:29.719 --> 00:03:32.439 nominee of the party, and there was a lot of 70 00:03:32.560 --> 00:03:35.400 excitement around him. And so I think if you do 71 00:03:35.599 --> 00:03:39.560 have a candidate who achieves something of the celebrity status 72 00:03:39.599 --> 00:03:42.759 that Barack Obama did in two thousand and eight, it 73 00:03:42.840 --> 00:03:46.919 can help drive enthusiasm and excitement, and it maybe help 74 00:03:47.479 --> 00:03:50.319 sets the tone narratively in the media, and then that 75 00:03:50.400 --> 00:03:53.960 sprinkles or trickles down to the voters. But I think 76 00:03:53.960 --> 00:03:57.280 the convention itself, you'd be hard pressed to say, oh, 77 00:03:57.479 --> 00:04:00.360 you know, Donald Trump had a really good convention twenty 78 00:04:00.400 --> 00:04:03.120 twenty four in Milwaukee, and that's why he ended up 79 00:04:03.120 --> 00:04:05.680 winning the twenty twenty four presidential election. I don't think 80 00:04:05.680 --> 00:04:06.759 anybody would claim. 81 00:04:06.560 --> 00:04:08.879 That we'll pick up on Gataen's phraseology when we come 82 00:04:08.919 --> 00:04:14.000 forward here of setting the tone in the media. I 83 00:04:14.080 --> 00:04:16.759 wonder if he thinks that Donald Trump's convention the first 84 00:04:16.759 --> 00:04:19.680 time ever Republicans have held a mid term convention. As 85 00:04:19.680 --> 00:04:23.360 I mentioned earlier, they have chosen Dallas. Speaking of site locations, 86 00:04:23.439 --> 00:04:27.319 they've chosen Dallas September ninth and tenth. It is still 87 00:04:27.800 --> 00:04:30.279 not dead of summer. Once you get past Labor Day, 88 00:04:30.319 --> 00:04:32.560 things start to quiet down a little bit. But we 89 00:04:32.600 --> 00:04:36.680 are we're gonna be forced to pay attention to this 90 00:04:36.720 --> 00:04:40.279 convention September nine and ten. In that eight week sprint 91 00:04:40.279 --> 00:04:42.519 from labor Day to election day. There's the reason why 92 00:04:42.519 --> 00:04:45.160 they waited till September, not August to do this their 93 00:04:45.240 --> 00:04:48.079 right smack dab in that eight week sprint again, from 94 00:04:48.160 --> 00:04:51.319 Labor Day to the election day, will that convention set 95 00:04:51.360 --> 00:04:54.639 the tone in any way in the media and beyond 96 00:04:54.759 --> 00:04:58.839 for Republicans to, if not put off on upset in November, 97 00:04:58.879 --> 00:05:02.000 at least out the blood letting that many people expect. 98 00:05:02.040 --> 00:05:03.720 We'll talk about that with Galen and a great deal 99 00:05:03.759 --> 00:05:06.399 more when we come forward on Tavias Smiley and Galen 100 00:05:06.439 --> 00:05:08.439 Drew one of the best in the business in the 101 00:05:08.480 --> 00:05:11.519 political business. He is the host of the non partisan 102 00:05:11.600 --> 00:05:14.399 podcast gd Politics and always pleased to be in a 103 00:05:14.480 --> 00:05:17.480 conversation with him. We were talking a moment ago about 104 00:05:17.519 --> 00:05:21.120 the Democratic Convention Democrats have now narrowed their list down 105 00:05:21.160 --> 00:05:24.240 to three cities. They've been there before. I've been to 106 00:05:24.279 --> 00:05:28.319 all three in my career covering the Democratic Party. Boston, Philadelphia, 107 00:05:28.360 --> 00:05:32.480 and Denver. Of course, Denver's Galen said where Obama was 108 00:05:32.480 --> 00:05:34.399 when he accepted the nomination. You recall he did it 109 00:05:34.480 --> 00:05:37.839 on August twenty eighth, the day of the anniversary of 110 00:05:37.839 --> 00:05:41.879 the March on Washington, so his historic moment black nominee 111 00:05:41.959 --> 00:05:44.639 on August twenty eight, also the same day they murdered 112 00:05:44.680 --> 00:05:46.639 him at Tills. There's a lot happening in that particular 113 00:05:46.720 --> 00:05:50.279 day in Denver, and I was sitting there with Dr 114 00:05:50.279 --> 00:05:52.319 Cornell West and Muhammad Ali, and never forget, as long 115 00:05:52.319 --> 00:05:55.000 as I live, I'm sitting between Doc and Ali the 116 00:05:55.079 --> 00:05:59.600 champ at that speech. A great moment in my life 117 00:06:00.040 --> 00:06:02.959 to be sitting between those two guys. But they've narrowed 118 00:06:02.959 --> 00:06:05.040 it down those three cities. Atlanta did not make the 119 00:06:05.120 --> 00:06:07.480 final list, and the mayor, the black mayor of Atlanta, 120 00:06:08.160 --> 00:06:11.279 but Andrea had something to say about it, suggesting that 121 00:06:11.319 --> 00:06:13.639 it's a diss to black voters that they didn't choose 122 00:06:13.680 --> 00:06:17.480 Atlanta in a year where you're gonna need twenty twenty eight, 123 00:06:17.480 --> 00:06:21.399 you're gonna need the black base to help save this party. 124 00:06:22.319 --> 00:06:26.160 But that conversation continues them again just another example of 125 00:06:26.199 --> 00:06:29.680 another squabble up. As I said earlier inside the Democratic Party. 126 00:06:30.079 --> 00:06:32.120 All that said, that's what we were talking about. Now, 127 00:06:32.120 --> 00:06:34.600 I want to add this to the docket. Galen, So, 128 00:06:34.680 --> 00:06:37.639 Donald Trump and Republicans. By the way, Gayta and I 129 00:06:37.639 --> 00:06:40.399 both agree that the city doesn't even matter so much 130 00:06:40.879 --> 00:06:44.600 these days. Nobody's you know, really tapped in in that way. 131 00:06:44.879 --> 00:06:46.839 And as I said earlier, and I think Gaden agrees 132 00:06:46.920 --> 00:06:49.160 that these these races at the national level come down 133 00:06:49.199 --> 00:06:51.279 to a handful of spring states, a handful of districts 134 00:06:51.319 --> 00:06:54.040 in those swing states, So wherever you are doesn't really 135 00:06:54.079 --> 00:06:55.560 make a difference. In Gayta and that the best joke 136 00:06:55.600 --> 00:06:58.160 of the day, best line of the day about Hillary 137 00:06:58.160 --> 00:07:00.759 Clinton in Philadelphia. They went to Philadelphia her convention where 138 00:07:00.759 --> 00:07:04.399 she got the nomination, and she went on to lose 139 00:07:04.560 --> 00:07:07.439 the state of Pennsylvania. So doesn't really matter who knows. 140 00:07:07.879 --> 00:07:09.839 But Donald Trump has decided that they're going to do 141 00:07:09.879 --> 00:07:12.399 something they've never done before, Republicans, that is meeting in Dallas, 142 00:07:12.439 --> 00:07:16.000 Texas September nine and ten, in smack dab or I 143 00:07:16.040 --> 00:07:18.480 shouldn't say smack dab at the outset really of that 144 00:07:18.519 --> 00:07:20.519 eight week sprint from labor day to the election day 145 00:07:20.519 --> 00:07:23.839 they're going to Texas. Democrats have not responded in kind 146 00:07:23.839 --> 00:07:26.279 with a midterm convention that I am aware of Galen, 147 00:07:26.639 --> 00:07:28.480 but it does mean that for a couple of days, 148 00:07:28.519 --> 00:07:30.720 not that he didn't dominate the news every day anyway, 149 00:07:31.040 --> 00:07:34.480 but for a couple of days, their party, their platform, 150 00:07:34.560 --> 00:07:37.240 their issues will be dominating the news. Is it going 151 00:07:37.279 --> 00:07:39.079 to rally the base? Will it make a difference. 152 00:07:40.759 --> 00:07:43.120 I don't think it will make a difference. And I 153 00:07:43.160 --> 00:07:48.279 think if most political advisors were advising the Republican Party 154 00:07:48.319 --> 00:07:52.519 on this, they tell them, maybe don't hold this convention. 155 00:07:52.600 --> 00:07:54.920 I mean, I don't know. There's a way I guess 156 00:07:55.000 --> 00:07:56.759 you can do it. That you could try to highlight 157 00:07:56.839 --> 00:08:01.360 areas where the public views the Republican Party positively. The 158 00:08:01.439 --> 00:08:04.639 problem is, there just aren't that many areas in polling 159 00:08:04.720 --> 00:08:08.279 right now that suggest the public views Republicans positively. So like, 160 00:08:08.279 --> 00:08:11.879 on one hand, okay, people have soured on the economy, 161 00:08:11.920 --> 00:08:15.600 on inflation, on immigration enforcement and the like, So maybe 162 00:08:15.639 --> 00:08:17.560 you would say, okay, we really need to get people 163 00:08:17.600 --> 00:08:20.560 excited about President Trump. Right, He's got all of these 164 00:08:20.560 --> 00:08:22.959 people who support him who don't necessarily turn out in 165 00:08:23.000 --> 00:08:26.519 midterm years, and we're going to focus a lot on 166 00:08:26.560 --> 00:08:29.680 Trump and get people really riled up to go vote, 167 00:08:29.879 --> 00:08:32.200 you know, once early voting starts and in November and the like. 168 00:08:32.240 --> 00:08:35.440 The problem is President Trump is historically unpopular. He's net 169 00:08:35.480 --> 00:08:39.600 negative twenty points underwater. And so if you put on 170 00:08:39.639 --> 00:08:42.840 a big affair reminding everybody about Donald Trump and everything 171 00:08:42.879 --> 00:08:44.720 about him and that he's in the White House right now, 172 00:08:45.039 --> 00:08:47.679 I mean, you may get a few extra Republican voters 173 00:08:47.679 --> 00:08:50.120 to turn out who might otherwise have stayed home because 174 00:08:50.120 --> 00:08:52.080 they're really only in the party for Trump. But at 175 00:08:52.080 --> 00:08:54.399 the same time, you're probably going to activate a bunch 176 00:08:54.399 --> 00:08:57.279 of either independent or Democrats who don't like the president. 177 00:08:57.360 --> 00:09:00.000 And there are far more Americans who don't like the president. 178 00:09:00.039 --> 00:09:02.480 Of it then like the president. You could argue for 179 00:09:02.519 --> 00:09:04.519 the alternative and you could say, hey, there's too much 180 00:09:04.559 --> 00:09:07.240 focus on the unpopularity of Trump. We really want to 181 00:09:07.240 --> 00:09:09.559 focus on the issues. Well, what do people care most about? 182 00:09:09.720 --> 00:09:10.480 The economy? 183 00:09:10.679 --> 00:09:10.879 Right? 184 00:09:10.919 --> 00:09:15.600 Trump is thirty percentage points underwater on the economy and inflation, 185 00:09:15.960 --> 00:09:18.639 and so Okay, well, are we then going to focus 186 00:09:18.679 --> 00:09:21.600 on foreign policy? I mean, vir war and war is unpopular, 187 00:09:21.679 --> 00:09:23.919 so like it's going to be difficult to pick a 188 00:09:23.960 --> 00:09:26.360 topic where you can really hammer the Democrats. I mean, 189 00:09:26.480 --> 00:09:28.879 if I was advising them as a Republican strategist, I 190 00:09:28.879 --> 00:09:31.919 would say, maybe the border. You can celebrate how the 191 00:09:31.960 --> 00:09:35.000 border has been secured under Trump. That's popular. You can 192 00:09:35.000 --> 00:09:38.519 talk about areas where Democrats are unpopular, maybe on some 193 00:09:38.600 --> 00:09:43.440 trans issues or you know, some policing or crime issues. 194 00:09:43.440 --> 00:09:45.039 But the thing is that's not at the top of 195 00:09:45.120 --> 00:09:47.000 voter's list right now. So if you put on a 196 00:09:47.039 --> 00:09:50.799 convention and all you're talking about is crime and trans people, 197 00:09:50.919 --> 00:09:54.480 I think you will also send voters the sense that like, oh, 198 00:09:54.519 --> 00:09:57.000 you don't actually care about my number one issue right now. 199 00:09:57.159 --> 00:09:58.919 Yep. I was about to ask you, and you are 200 00:09:59.519 --> 00:10:02.320 pressing and prophetic. I was about to ask you, what 201 00:10:02.440 --> 00:10:06.679 should they lean in on, given that he's unpopular domestically 202 00:10:06.840 --> 00:10:09.679 and nobody cares about this Iran war carries for rather 203 00:10:09.759 --> 00:10:12.799 this Iran war. You've answered that question, But let me 204 00:10:12.840 --> 00:10:15.399 take a step further here though, in terms of leaning 205 00:10:15.440 --> 00:10:18.919 in I'm thinking out loud here. There are some interesting 206 00:10:19.159 --> 00:10:21.120 I'm putting that word in air quotes. There's some interesting 207 00:10:21.159 --> 00:10:24.679 candidates that they have in these midterms. I can see 208 00:10:24.720 --> 00:10:28.879 them showcasing, if you will, some of the candidates they 209 00:10:28.919 --> 00:10:32.279 have over and against these DSA candidates who they call, 210 00:10:32.360 --> 00:10:35.840 you know, gihattist and communists, et cetera, et cetera. I'm 211 00:10:35.879 --> 00:10:38.879 thinking of people like Byron Donald's in Florida, a black 212 00:10:38.879 --> 00:10:41.480 guy running for governor, John James and Michigan a black 213 00:10:41.519 --> 00:10:44.480 guy running for governor. There are others. Is that perhaps 214 00:10:44.480 --> 00:10:46.399 one of the frames they are to operate inside of 215 00:10:46.720 --> 00:10:50.639 just showcasing their talent, as it were, in the midterm elections, 216 00:10:50.639 --> 00:10:51.639 beyond even Donald Trump. 217 00:10:51.679 --> 00:10:53.960 I think that's a really good point, and I think 218 00:10:54.000 --> 00:10:56.120 that's certainly going to be a big part of it. 219 00:10:56.360 --> 00:10:58.039 I mean, Mike Rogers, I think we're going to hear 220 00:10:58.039 --> 00:11:00.480 a lot about him. Right again, I don't know what 221 00:11:00.480 --> 00:11:03.519 the lineup is for the convention. Mike Rodgers, the Republican 222 00:11:03.519 --> 00:11:08.720 senator is sorry, the Republican senatorial nominee in Michigan is 223 00:11:08.799 --> 00:11:12.000 running against Democratic nominee Abdul Elsa Ed. Of course, he's 224 00:11:12.039 --> 00:11:14.200 not a member of the DSA, but he's quite progressive 225 00:11:14.200 --> 00:11:16.399 and aligned with a lot of things that the Socialists 226 00:11:16.440 --> 00:11:20.679 are aligned on. And currently, although Michigan you would expect 227 00:11:20.679 --> 00:11:23.000 from the political environment to be quite blue right now, 228 00:11:23.120 --> 00:11:26.440 Mike Rogers is leading in early polling, and so that 229 00:11:27.000 --> 00:11:29.159 that is certainly I would say that in that race, 230 00:11:29.240 --> 00:11:31.759 Democrats have a weaker candidate than they would have wanted, 231 00:11:32.000 --> 00:11:34.519 and Republicans have a rather strong candidate. You know, Mike 232 00:11:34.639 --> 00:11:37.519 Rogers lived out most of his political career before Trump 233 00:11:37.559 --> 00:11:39.879 was ever in office, and so he can claim to 234 00:11:39.919 --> 00:11:43.240 be a kind of pre Trump Republican who you know, 235 00:11:43.440 --> 00:11:46.080 doesn't dabble in all of the craziness and et cetera, 236 00:11:46.120 --> 00:11:48.120 et cetera, et cetera, and try to appeal to more 237 00:11:48.120 --> 00:11:51.200 independent or moderate voters in Michigan. I imagine that that 238 00:11:51.360 --> 00:11:53.759 he's going to be somebody who you know, gets a 239 00:11:53.759 --> 00:11:56.600 primetime slot. I think the same with Bira Donalds. Again, 240 00:11:56.679 --> 00:11:58.440 I don't think they would focus too much on Florida 241 00:11:58.519 --> 00:12:01.679 because I don't think Republicans really fear Democrats in the 242 00:12:01.720 --> 00:12:04.919 state of Florida anymore. But certainly, I mean Texas will 243 00:12:04.919 --> 00:12:07.440 be an interesting one, right because the convention is going 244 00:12:07.480 --> 00:12:10.200 to be in Dallas. They're going to be facing off 245 00:12:10.240 --> 00:12:14.039 against James Tallerico, the Democrat at the top of the ballot. 246 00:12:14.080 --> 00:12:18.600 But they don't have a particularly strong Republican candidate in 247 00:12:19.000 --> 00:12:21.759 that Senate race, and so you know, who are they 248 00:12:21.759 --> 00:12:23.960 going to put forward there? Maybe Greg Abbott, the governor, 249 00:12:23.960 --> 00:12:27.679 who is perhaps a bit more popular and expected, I think, 250 00:12:27.759 --> 00:12:31.440 expected to win his race even if James Tyllerico were 251 00:12:31.559 --> 00:12:33.279 to win. And so if you go state by state, 252 00:12:33.320 --> 00:12:35.600 I think they really will be trying to I mean, 253 00:12:35.679 --> 00:12:38.879 Susan Collins is certainly somebody that they'll be trying to highlight, 254 00:12:39.120 --> 00:12:41.840 to try to give people the sense you're right that 255 00:12:41.960 --> 00:12:44.000 you know this is the party is not extreme. The 256 00:12:44.000 --> 00:12:46.120 party is not just Donald Trump. The party is these 257 00:12:46.159 --> 00:12:48.120 other people as well, and then at the same time 258 00:12:48.480 --> 00:12:51.639 try to remind folks, hey, the Democrats are the crazy ones, 259 00:12:51.679 --> 00:12:53.360 They're the extremists, et cetera, et cetera. 260 00:12:53.559 --> 00:12:55.279 No, I think, I think, I think the agenda if 261 00:12:55.320 --> 00:12:58.200 I'm if I'm running the convention, I'm not. Uh, I 262 00:12:58.240 --> 00:13:00.159 know it would be. But if I'm running it, I'm 263 00:13:00.159 --> 00:13:02.960 going to spend all my time clowning DSA. I'm going 264 00:13:03.039 --> 00:13:05.919 to clown these progressives. I'm gonna remind you that they're 265 00:13:05.960 --> 00:13:08.320 they're taking America down a rabbit hole and a direction 266 00:13:08.399 --> 00:13:10.320 that we really don't want to go. That throughout a 267 00:13:10.360 --> 00:13:13.120 step and out of touch with your values, et cetera, 268 00:13:13.200 --> 00:13:16.360 et cetera. Uh. And to your point about Texas, I 269 00:13:16.440 --> 00:13:19.879 just read today a couple of different prognosticators have put 270 00:13:19.879 --> 00:13:22.399 Iowa in Texas. Now, those races, the Senate races, in 271 00:13:22.440 --> 00:13:25.279 the toss up category. So to your point about tall Rico, 272 00:13:25.360 --> 00:13:27.360 he has a shot in Texas, and so they Abbousie 273 00:13:27.759 --> 00:13:30.080 are in Dallas for this convention. They need to shore 274 00:13:30.200 --> 00:13:32.639 up whatever chances they're going to have to win this race, 275 00:13:32.679 --> 00:13:34.679 the Senate race in Texas that is. But again Iowa 276 00:13:34.720 --> 00:13:37.320 and Texas I was reading today a couple of folk 277 00:13:37.399 --> 00:13:39.120 have not put in the sort of toss up category. 278 00:13:39.360 --> 00:13:41.440 But I just I spend my time clowning the DSA 279 00:13:41.919 --> 00:13:45.600 and advancing and promoting rather the candidates that that we 280 00:13:45.720 --> 00:13:49.399 have that I think are more in touch with the 281 00:13:49.399 --> 00:13:52.519 ethics and values of the typical American voter. All that said, 282 00:13:53.720 --> 00:13:57.840 to what extent to your mind, is Trump the ticket? 283 00:13:58.360 --> 00:14:01.279 Or put another way, is Trump still on the ticket 284 00:14:01.320 --> 00:14:03.519 even though we know he's not literally on the ticket. 285 00:14:04.679 --> 00:14:08.159 Yeah, I mean, that's how politics works. Right at the 286 00:14:08.240 --> 00:14:10.639 end of the day, Trumps president. If people are mad 287 00:14:10.639 --> 00:14:13.279 with how the country is going, he's the most obvious 288 00:14:13.320 --> 00:14:16.480 target of people's ire and you can change the subject. 289 00:14:16.519 --> 00:14:19.480 And Americans have become more partisans, so there are a 290 00:14:19.519 --> 00:14:22.399 lot of and also the parties have become more extreme. 291 00:14:22.440 --> 00:14:25.840 I mean, when they talk about things that the DSA says, 292 00:14:25.879 --> 00:14:28.200 they're not necessarily going to be making things up. They 293 00:14:28.200 --> 00:14:30.960 may well be talking about positions that the DSA takes 294 00:14:31.279 --> 00:14:34.240 that are out of step with the majority of Americans. 295 00:14:34.240 --> 00:14:36.919 And so to the extent that that's the case, Democrats 296 00:14:36.960 --> 00:14:39.600 have put themselves in a worse position than they might 297 00:14:39.679 --> 00:14:43.320 otherwise have been in had they not gone down that path. 298 00:14:43.600 --> 00:14:47.440 At the same time, nobody in DSA is running the 299 00:14:47.480 --> 00:14:49.600 federal government, and so it's going to be hard to 300 00:14:49.639 --> 00:14:54.120 convince people that, you know, somebody in New York City 301 00:14:54.279 --> 00:14:56.960 or even one candidate in Michigan. Right, maybe abdua Elsie 302 00:14:57.080 --> 00:14:58.840 will lose again he's not part of the DSA. Maybe 303 00:14:58.840 --> 00:15:01.679 he'll lose, But that doesn't now necessarily mean that, say, 304 00:15:02.080 --> 00:15:04.600 you know, Democrats will lose in Texas and Iowa and 305 00:15:04.679 --> 00:15:08.360 Maine and North Carolina, and elsewhere. A real sort of 306 00:15:08.440 --> 00:15:12.480 important piece for Democrats this cycle is differentiating themselves from 307 00:15:12.480 --> 00:15:14.759 the National Democratic Party. Like, if you look at the 308 00:15:14.759 --> 00:15:17.759 popularity of the Republican Party and Democratic Party right now, 309 00:15:18.000 --> 00:15:20.240 Democrats are still a little bit less popular than the 310 00:15:20.279 --> 00:15:23.440 Republican Party. So I don't think anybody is trying to 311 00:15:23.559 --> 00:15:26.000 who wants to win a competitive election is trying to 312 00:15:26.039 --> 00:15:29.080 cast their lot with the Democratic Party. They're trying to say, 313 00:15:29.200 --> 00:15:32.159 I'm an independent thinker, I go against my party when 314 00:15:32.200 --> 00:15:35.080 it suits the state, that kind of thing. And so 315 00:15:35.559 --> 00:15:38.799 you know, I think both both Democrats and Republicans in 316 00:15:38.879 --> 00:15:42.120 competitive states are going to be running against their own 317 00:15:42.159 --> 00:15:46.039 party and their own leadership, right Republican You've even seen 318 00:15:46.080 --> 00:15:48.639 this with Steve Hilton in California who said, you know, 319 00:15:48.919 --> 00:15:50.679 you can hate Trump and still vote for me. I mean, 320 00:15:50.679 --> 00:15:53.840 he's not going to win the gubernatorial race in California, 321 00:15:53.879 --> 00:15:56.279 But like that's the kind of message that people that 322 00:15:56.360 --> 00:15:59.679 Republicans in difficult races are going to want to send, 323 00:16:00.039 --> 00:16:02.639 which is, even if you're frustrated with the current president, 324 00:16:02.799 --> 00:16:05.240 you can vote for me. By the same token, Democrats 325 00:16:05.279 --> 00:16:08.080 will be saying, even if you're frustrated with the Democratic Party. 326 00:16:08.519 --> 00:16:10.480 I am still going to be looking out for your 327 00:16:10.519 --> 00:16:13.120 best interests, you know, Democratic voters in Iowa. 328 00:16:13.320 --> 00:16:16.000 We're doing a big event here in LA with those 329 00:16:16.080 --> 00:16:18.679 in LA have already in California as they are hearing 330 00:16:18.679 --> 00:16:21.360 about it. A big event here in LA on October third, 331 00:16:21.840 --> 00:16:25.000 featuring all the candidates running for statewide office, a governor 332 00:16:25.039 --> 00:16:28.799 on down. Steve Hilton, aforementioned by Galen Droup will be there, 333 00:16:29.399 --> 00:16:31.399 as will have Yourbasara and all the others running for 334 00:16:31.440 --> 00:16:34.720 state wide office, including I should say, in addition to that, 335 00:16:34.799 --> 00:16:37.200 we'll have the mayorl candidates here in La, Karen Bass, 336 00:16:37.279 --> 00:16:40.879 Nathie Rahman, the Sheriff's candidates here in La, Luneeva and Luna, 337 00:16:40.919 --> 00:16:43.360 the city attorney candidates here in La. Roy and McKinney. 338 00:16:43.720 --> 00:16:46.279 Everybody joining us on October third for our big event. 339 00:16:46.720 --> 00:16:49.039 Check out any of our socials to read more about 340 00:16:49.039 --> 00:16:51.240 this all day event that we're going to be broadcasting 341 00:16:51.279 --> 00:16:54.440 live on this radio station, live streaming, and I'm pleased 342 00:16:54.480 --> 00:16:57.039 to announce that c SPAN is tapping as well to 343 00:16:57.080 --> 00:16:59.120 cover this gathering on that day. Gonna be a huge 344 00:16:59.200 --> 00:17:03.039 day October third for our California Voices, town hall and 345 00:17:03.159 --> 00:17:05.559 ballot form again. Read more about it online. You don't 346 00:17:05.559 --> 00:17:06.960 want to miss that. It's gonna be a great day 347 00:17:06.960 --> 00:17:10.039 here in California, sort of a political Lollapaloosa all day 348 00:17:10.079 --> 00:17:12.400 long from eight am to five pm. I've got three 349 00:17:12.400 --> 00:17:13.920 minutes left, gate and let me u the balance of 350 00:17:13.960 --> 00:17:16.480 my time. As they say in DC, to you, what's 351 00:17:16.559 --> 00:17:19.720 up with these fake polls that are rocking races, including 352 00:17:19.720 --> 00:17:23.200 the mayor's racer in LA. And the prediction market got 353 00:17:23.240 --> 00:17:27.119 it wrong in a few places this time around. Talk 354 00:17:27.160 --> 00:17:29.279 to me about the prediction market if you will, in 355 00:17:29.319 --> 00:17:30.400 the three minutes I had left. 356 00:17:31.400 --> 00:17:33.519 Yeah, So, the bad news is somebody put out a 357 00:17:33.519 --> 00:17:36.079 fake poll. The good news is that they were caught, 358 00:17:36.119 --> 00:17:39.960 and that most of the folks who aggregate the polls, 359 00:17:39.960 --> 00:17:44.200 who create polling averages, never included the fake polsters anyway, 360 00:17:44.559 --> 00:17:48.119 because they go through a rigorous process of vetting any 361 00:17:48.160 --> 00:17:50.839 polster that they're going to put into the average. So 362 00:17:50.880 --> 00:17:53.400 they ask them who's behind the poll, what kind of 363 00:17:53.400 --> 00:17:55.519 methodology are they using in the like, So I think 364 00:17:55.599 --> 00:17:59.319 that's important to say. You know, the prediction markets are 365 00:17:59.359 --> 00:18:02.200 only they're supposed to be the wisdom of the crowds, 366 00:18:02.240 --> 00:18:05.720 and so they're only as wise as the crowds, and 367 00:18:06.200 --> 00:18:08.680 most people are. I mean, a couple things happened where 368 00:18:08.680 --> 00:18:12.440 there was really big polling error in Michigan and Wisconsin. 369 00:18:12.759 --> 00:18:16.599 And also I think most people don't realize how uncertain 370 00:18:16.680 --> 00:18:19.359 those polls can be. So just as an example, I mean, 371 00:18:19.920 --> 00:18:22.400 the polls got it pretty wrong, and there are technical 372 00:18:22.480 --> 00:18:26.440 reasons why that happened. They were undersampling older voters and 373 00:18:26.519 --> 00:18:29.519 voters of color within the Democratic Party because so many 374 00:18:29.519 --> 00:18:33.480 pollsters have leaned into online polls and text messaging polls, 375 00:18:33.599 --> 00:18:37.640 which makes it harder to reach older people, It makes 376 00:18:37.640 --> 00:18:40.279 it harder to reach rural people, it makes it harder 377 00:18:40.319 --> 00:18:42.359 to reach, you know, people who don't just have a 378 00:18:42.359 --> 00:18:43.880 bunch of time in the middle of the day to 379 00:18:43.880 --> 00:18:47.839 be answering online polls essentially, And so that's a problem 380 00:18:47.920 --> 00:18:50.759 that polsters are going to have to figure out. But 381 00:18:50.960 --> 00:18:54.079 the average error in a statewide primary is twelve points 382 00:18:54.119 --> 00:18:56.400 and that's the exact error that happened in Michigan. So 383 00:18:56.799 --> 00:19:00.279 while the pollsters did mess up, it's important to keep 384 00:19:00.319 --> 00:19:03.440 in mind and I'm talking about primaries here, not general elections. 385 00:19:03.880 --> 00:19:06.799 Primaries are the most uncertain kind of race you can 386 00:19:06.839 --> 00:19:09.920 pull because folks can change their mind pretty easily. To 387 00:19:09.960 --> 00:19:11.880 go to one candidate, from one candidate to the other, 388 00:19:12.119 --> 00:19:14.880 you're switching from one Democrat to another Democrat. That's an 389 00:19:14.920 --> 00:19:18.440 easier change to make than to go from a Republican 390 00:19:18.480 --> 00:19:20.599 to a Democrat or vice versa, which is what happens 391 00:19:20.640 --> 00:19:23.279 in the general election. So I would say, in order 392 00:19:23.319 --> 00:19:27.119 to avoid being tricked by these things, pay close attention 393 00:19:27.200 --> 00:19:29.960 to what kind of race is being pulled. And remember 394 00:19:30.440 --> 00:19:33.440 the polls have always this is not new, have always 395 00:19:33.440 --> 00:19:36.240 been prone to error, and some poles in some races 396 00:19:36.279 --> 00:19:37.279 are more prone than others. 397 00:19:37.559 --> 00:19:40.240 Gaiden Drewkes around the best at this and that's why 398 00:19:40.279 --> 00:19:42.400 we keep him on speed Out and get him on 399 00:19:42.440 --> 00:19:43.880 as often as we can. We'll talk to him a 400 00:19:43.920 --> 00:19:47.000 few more times, I hope and suspect between now and 401 00:19:47.480 --> 00:19:49.680