Speaker 1: That's Prince and I'm Tavis, and I'm glad to have
you with us in this third and final out of
our program. Two conversations in this hour. As promised. On
the backside, we will talk to Ernest Harden Junior. He
is Immy nominated right about now, veteran actor nominated for
his Outstanding guest appearance on the HBO Max hit medical
drama The Pit. I haven't seen Ernest Harden jun in
a long time, so he's coming in the studio on
the back half of this hour to wrap our program today.
Will celebrate Ernest and this Emmy nomination. I A'm mad
at him, but we commenced this hour with our friend
and brother, Galen Drew will take the political prediction market
to task here in a moment with Galen of a
gd politics podcast, and I'm glad to have getting back Jiden.
Speaker 2: How are you, sir, I'm good. Thanks so much for
having me.
Speaker 1: It's good to hear your voice. Thanks for your time.
Let me just we would talk about a few political
issues earlier today, and I want to just circle back
to one or two of those right quick, just to
get your get your your read on it. Then we'll
push forward to this uh. This uh, this this prediction
market that seems to still get stuff wrong, even after
all these years of of uh hopefully getting better at
the at the polls that we that we take. UH.
We were talking earlier about a couple of things. One
let me start with the Democratic Convention. They've narrowed down
the final three cities where they're going to meet, so Philadelphia, Boston,
and Denver. We talked about this in the first hour
of our program. I said, then I say in this
hour now, I'm not so sure that the cities matter.
These days, these races come down to a number of
swing states, and as you well know better than most
of us, a few districts inside those swing states. And
there's all this consternation about where the convention is going
to be held. Atlanta was bypassed. The black mayor of
Atlanta has said it's a slap in the face to
black voters. So now there's another squabble up inside the
Democratic Party. I'm just not so sure that location, uh
makes the difference that it used to make. And yet
here we are talking about where the Democratic which is
going to be when we know it comes down to
swing states and a few districts wants again in those states.
That's my read? What's your read?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I fig you're exactly right. Folks will remember how
in twenty sixteen, Democrats held the national Convention in Philadelphia
that summer, and of course Hillary Clinton went on to
win Pennsylvania. Oh wait, sorry, she lost Pennsylvania. So yeah,
you're right. Where these conventions are ultimately held don't matter.
I mean, I'm not even sure how much the convention
itself really moves voters. In the middle of the summer.
The people who are going to be paying attention to
political content like this are probably going to be people
who pay so much attention to politics that they already
have a good sense of who they're going to vote for.
Right Like your marginal swing voter who doesn't pay that
much attention to politics and doesn't have a strong opinion on,
you know, a public option for healthcare or what to
do on immigration. That person is probably not tuning into
a whole bunch of political speeches in the middle of
the summer. They're at the beach, they're taking care of
their kids, they're visiting their family. So I think that
these can be like fun set pieces, and the media
gets really excited and the party gets really excited. If anything,
what these helped do. I mean, you mentioned Denver, and
folks might remember that in two thousand and eight, the
National Democratic Convention was in Denver, and it was a
really big moment for Barack Obama becoming the first black
nominee of the party, and there was a lot of
excitement around him. And so I think if you do
have a candidate who achieves something of the celebrity status
that Barack Obama did in two thousand and eight, it
can help drive enthusiasm and excitement, and it maybe help
sets the tone narratively in the media, and then that
sprinkles or trickles down to the voters. But I think
the convention itself, you'd be hard pressed to say, oh,
you know, Donald Trump had a really good convention twenty
twenty four in Milwaukee, and that's why he ended up
winning the twenty twenty four presidential election. I don't think
anybody would claim.
Speaker 1: That we'll pick up on Gataen's phraseology when we come
forward here of setting the tone in the media. I
wonder if he thinks that Donald Trump's convention the first
time ever Republicans have held a mid term convention. As
I mentioned earlier, they have chosen Dallas. Speaking of site locations,
they've chosen Dallas September ninth and tenth. It is still
not dead of summer. Once you get past Labor Day,
things start to quiet down a little bit. But we
are we're gonna be forced to pay attention to this
convention September nine and ten. In that eight week sprint
from labor Day to election day. There's the reason why
they waited till September, not August to do this their
right smack dab in that eight week sprint again, from
Labor Day to the election day, will that convention set
the tone in any way in the media and beyond
for Republicans to, if not put off on upset in November,
at least out the blood letting that many people expect.
We'll talk about that with Galen and a great deal
more when we come forward on Tavias Smiley and Galen
Drew one of the best in the business in the
political business. He is the host of the non partisan
podcast gd Politics and always pleased to be in a
conversation with him. We were talking a moment ago about
the Democratic Convention Democrats have now narrowed their list down
to three cities. They've been there before. I've been to
all three in my career covering the Democratic Party. Boston, Philadelphia,
and Denver. Of course, Denver's Galen said where Obama was
when he accepted the nomination. You recall he did it
on August twenty eighth, the day of the anniversary of
the March on Washington, so his historic moment black nominee
on August twenty eight, also the same day they murdered
him at Tills. There's a lot happening in that particular
day in Denver, and I was sitting there with Dr
Cornell West and Muhammad Ali, and never forget, as long
as I live, I'm sitting between Doc and Ali the
champ at that speech. A great moment in my life
to be sitting between those two guys. But they've narrowed
it down those three cities. Atlanta did not make the
final list, and the mayor, the black mayor of Atlanta,
but Andrea had something to say about it, suggesting that
it's a diss to black voters that they didn't choose
Atlanta in a year where you're gonna need twenty twenty eight,
you're gonna need the black base to help save this party.
But that conversation continues them again just another example of
another squabble up. As I said earlier inside the Democratic Party.
All that said, that's what we were talking about. Now,
I want to add this to the docket. Galen, So,
Donald Trump and Republicans. By the way, Gayta and I
both agree that the city doesn't even matter so much
these days. Nobody's you know, really tapped in in that way.
And as I said earlier, and I think Gaden agrees
that these these races at the national level come down
to a handful of spring states, a handful of districts
in those swing states, So wherever you are doesn't really
make a difference. In Gayta and that the best joke
of the day, best line of the day about Hillary
Clinton in Philadelphia. They went to Philadelphia her convention where
she got the nomination, and she went on to lose
the state of Pennsylvania. So doesn't really matter who knows.
But Donald Trump has decided that they're going to do
something they've never done before, Republicans, that is meeting in Dallas,
Texas September nine and ten, in smack dab or I
shouldn't say smack dab at the outset really of that
eight week sprint from labor day to the election day
they're going to Texas. Democrats have not responded in kind
with a midterm convention that I am aware of Galen,
but it does mean that for a couple of days,
not that he didn't dominate the news every day anyway,
but for a couple of days, their party, their platform,
their issues will be dominating the news. Is it going
to rally the base? Will it make a difference.
Speaker 2: I don't think it will make a difference. And I
think if most political advisors were advising the Republican Party
on this, they tell them, maybe don't hold this convention.
I mean, I don't know. There's a way I guess
you can do it. That you could try to highlight
areas where the public views the Republican Party positively. The
problem is, there just aren't that many areas in polling
right now that suggest the public views Republicans positively. So like,
on one hand, okay, people have soured on the economy,
on inflation, on immigration enforcement and the like, So maybe
you would say, okay, we really need to get people
excited about President Trump. Right, He's got all of these
people who support him who don't necessarily turn out in
midterm years, and we're going to focus a lot on
Trump and get people really riled up to go vote,
you know, once early voting starts and in November and the like.
The problem is President Trump is historically unpopular. He's net
negative twenty points underwater. And so if you put on
a big affair reminding everybody about Donald Trump and everything
about him and that he's in the White House right now,
I mean, you may get a few extra Republican voters
to turn out who might otherwise have stayed home because
they're really only in the party for Trump. But at
the same time, you're probably going to activate a bunch
of either independent or Democrats who don't like the president.
And there are far more Americans who don't like the president.
Of it then like the president. You could argue for
the alternative and you could say, hey, there's too much
focus on the unpopularity of Trump. We really want to
focus on the issues. Well, what do people care most about?
The economy?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 2: Trump is thirty percentage points underwater on the economy and inflation,
and so Okay, well, are we then going to focus
on foreign policy? I mean, vir war and war is unpopular,
so like it's going to be difficult to pick a
topic where you can really hammer the Democrats. I mean,
if I was advising them as a Republican strategist, I
would say, maybe the border. You can celebrate how the
border has been secured under Trump. That's popular. You can
talk about areas where Democrats are unpopular, maybe on some
trans issues or you know, some policing or crime issues.
But the thing is that's not at the top of
voter's list right now. So if you put on a
convention and all you're talking about is crime and trans people,
I think you will also send voters the sense that like, oh,
you don't actually care about my number one issue right now.
Speaker 1: Yep. I was about to ask you, and you are
pressing and prophetic. I was about to ask you, what
should they lean in on, given that he's unpopular domestically
and nobody cares about this Iran war carries for rather
this Iran war. You've answered that question, But let me
take a step further here though, in terms of leaning
in I'm thinking out loud here. There are some interesting
I'm putting that word in air quotes. There's some interesting
candidates that they have in these midterms. I can see
them showcasing, if you will, some of the candidates they
have over and against these DSA candidates who they call,
you know, gihattist and communists, et cetera, et cetera. I'm
thinking of people like Byron Donald's in Florida, a black
guy running for governor, John James and Michigan a black
guy running for governor. There are others. Is that perhaps
one of the frames they are to operate inside of
just showcasing their talent, as it were, in the midterm elections,
beyond even Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: I think that's a really good point, and I think
that's certainly going to be a big part of it.
I mean, Mike Rogers, I think we're going to hear
a lot about him. Right again, I don't know what
the lineup is for the convention. Mike Rodgers, the Republican
senator is sorry, the Republican senatorial nominee in Michigan is
running against Democratic nominee Abdul Elsa Ed. Of course, he's
not a member of the DSA, but he's quite progressive
and aligned with a lot of things that the Socialists
are aligned on. And currently, although Michigan you would expect
from the political environment to be quite blue right now,
Mike Rogers is leading in early polling, and so that
that is certainly I would say that in that race,
Democrats have a weaker candidate than they would have wanted,
and Republicans have a rather strong candidate. You know, Mike
Rogers lived out most of his political career before Trump
was ever in office, and so he can claim to
be a kind of pre Trump Republican who you know,
doesn't dabble in all of the craziness and et cetera,
et cetera, et cetera, and try to appeal to more
independent or moderate voters in Michigan. I imagine that that
he's going to be somebody who you know, gets a
primetime slot. I think the same with Bira Donalds. Again,
I don't think they would focus too much on Florida
because I don't think Republicans really fear Democrats in the
state of Florida anymore. But certainly, I mean Texas will
be an interesting one, right because the convention is going
to be in Dallas. They're going to be facing off
against James Tallerico, the Democrat at the top of the ballot.
But they don't have a particularly strong Republican candidate in
that Senate race, and so you know, who are they
going to put forward there? Maybe Greg Abbott, the governor,
who is perhaps a bit more popular and expected, I think,
expected to win his race even if James Tyllerico were
to win. And so if you go state by state,
I think they really will be trying to I mean,
Susan Collins is certainly somebody that they'll be trying to highlight,
to try to give people the sense you're right that
you know this is the party is not extreme. The
party is not just Donald Trump. The party is these
other people as well, and then at the same time
try to remind folks, hey, the Democrats are the crazy ones,
They're the extremists, et cetera, et cetera.
Speaker 1: No, I think, I think, I think the agenda if
I'm if I'm running the convention, I'm not. Uh, I
know it would be. But if I'm running it, I'm
going to spend all my time clowning DSA. I'm going
to clown these progressives. I'm gonna remind you that they're
they're taking America down a rabbit hole and a direction
that we really don't want to go. That throughout a
step and out of touch with your values, et cetera,
et cetera. Uh. And to your point about Texas, I
just read today a couple of different prognosticators have put
Iowa in Texas. Now, those races, the Senate races, in
the toss up category. So to your point about tall Rico,
he has a shot in Texas, and so they Abbousie
are in Dallas for this convention. They need to shore
up whatever chances they're going to have to win this race,
the Senate race in Texas that is. But again Iowa
and Texas I was reading today a couple of folk
have not put in the sort of toss up category.
But I just I spend my time clowning the DSA
and advancing and promoting rather the candidates that that we
have that I think are more in touch with the
ethics and values of the typical American voter. All that said,
to what extent to your mind, is Trump the ticket?
Or put another way, is Trump still on the ticket
even though we know he's not literally on the ticket.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, that's how politics works. Right at the
end of the day, Trumps president. If people are mad
with how the country is going, he's the most obvious
target of people's ire and you can change the subject.
And Americans have become more partisans, so there are a
lot of and also the parties have become more extreme.
I mean, when they talk about things that the DSA says,
they're not necessarily going to be making things up. They
may well be talking about positions that the DSA takes
that are out of step with the majority of Americans.
And so to the extent that that's the case, Democrats
have put themselves in a worse position than they might
otherwise have been in had they not gone down that path.
At the same time, nobody in DSA is running the
federal government, and so it's going to be hard to
convince people that, you know, somebody in New York City
or even one candidate in Michigan. Right, maybe abdua Elsie
will lose again he's not part of the DSA. Maybe
he'll lose, But that doesn't now necessarily mean that, say,
you know, Democrats will lose in Texas and Iowa and
Maine and North Carolina, and elsewhere. A real sort of
important piece for Democrats this cycle is differentiating themselves from
the National Democratic Party. Like, if you look at the
popularity of the Republican Party and Democratic Party right now,
Democrats are still a little bit less popular than the
Republican Party. So I don't think anybody is trying to
who wants to win a competitive election is trying to
cast their lot with the Democratic Party. They're trying to say,
I'm an independent thinker, I go against my party when
it suits the state, that kind of thing. And so
you know, I think both both Democrats and Republicans in
competitive states are going to be running against their own
party and their own leadership, right Republican You've even seen
this with Steve Hilton in California who said, you know,
you can hate Trump and still vote for me. I mean,
he's not going to win the gubernatorial race in California,
But like that's the kind of message that people that
Republicans in difficult races are going to want to send,
which is, even if you're frustrated with the current president,
you can vote for me. By the same token, Democrats
will be saying, even if you're frustrated with the Democratic Party.
I am still going to be looking out for your
best interests, you know, Democratic voters in Iowa.
Speaker 1: We're doing a big event here in LA with those
in LA have already in California as they are hearing
about it. A big event here in LA on October third,
featuring all the candidates running for statewide office, a governor
on down. Steve Hilton, aforementioned by Galen Droup will be there,
as will have Yourbasara and all the others running for
state wide office, including I should say, in addition to that,
we'll have the mayorl candidates here in La, Karen Bass,
Nathie Rahman, the Sheriff's candidates here in La, Luneeva and Luna,
the city attorney candidates here in La. Roy and McKinney.
Everybody joining us on October third for our big event.
Check out any of our socials to read more about
this all day event that we're going to be broadcasting
live on this radio station, live streaming, and I'm pleased
to announce that c SPAN is tapping as well to
cover this gathering on that day. Gonna be a huge
day October third for our California Voices, town hall and
ballot form again. Read more about it online. You don't
want to miss that. It's gonna be a great day
here in California, sort of a political Lollapaloosa all day
long from eight am to five pm. I've got three
minutes left, gate and let me u the balance of
my time. As they say in DC, to you, what's
up with these fake polls that are rocking races, including
the mayor's racer in LA. And the prediction market got
it wrong in a few places this time around. Talk
to me about the prediction market if you will, in
the three minutes I had left.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So, the bad news is somebody put out a
fake poll. The good news is that they were caught,
and that most of the folks who aggregate the polls,
who create polling averages, never included the fake polsters anyway,
because they go through a rigorous process of vetting any
polster that they're going to put into the average. So
they ask them who's behind the poll, what kind of
methodology are they using in the like, So I think
that's important to say. You know, the prediction markets are
only they're supposed to be the wisdom of the crowds,
and so they're only as wise as the crowds, and
most people are. I mean, a couple things happened where
there was really big polling error in Michigan and Wisconsin.
And also I think most people don't realize how uncertain
those polls can be. So just as an example, I mean,
the polls got it pretty wrong, and there are technical
reasons why that happened. They were undersampling older voters and
voters of color within the Democratic Party because so many
pollsters have leaned into online polls and text messaging polls,
which makes it harder to reach older people, It makes
it harder to reach rural people, it makes it harder
to reach, you know, people who don't just have a
bunch of time in the middle of the day to
be answering online polls essentially, And so that's a problem
that polsters are going to have to figure out. But
the average error in a statewide primary is twelve points
and that's the exact error that happened in Michigan. So
while the pollsters did mess up, it's important to keep
in mind and I'm talking about primaries here, not general elections.
Primaries are the most uncertain kind of race you can
pull because folks can change their mind pretty easily. To
go to one candidate, from one candidate to the other,
you're switching from one Democrat to another Democrat. That's an
easier change to make than to go from a Republican
to a Democrat or vice versa, which is what happens
in the general election. So I would say, in order
to avoid being tricked by these things, pay close attention
to what kind of race is being pulled. And remember
the polls have always this is not new, have always
been prone to error, and some poles in some races
are more prone than others.
Speaker 1: Gaiden Drewkes around the best at this and that's why
we keep him on speed Out and get him on
as often as we can. We'll talk to him a
few more times, I hope and suspect between now and
election day. And I'm a third He is host of
the non Protestant podcast gd Politics. Always grateful to have
you on the program, getting appreciate your insights, man, and
enjoy the rest of your day.
Speaker 2: Thanks for having me.
Speaker 1: More of Tavis Smota been we come forward