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Speaker 1: That's Prince and I'm Tavis, and I'm glad to have

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you with us in this third and final out of

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our program. Two conversations in this hour. As promised. On

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the backside, we will talk to Ernest Harden Junior. He

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is Immy nominated right about now, veteran actor nominated for

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his Outstanding guest appearance on the HBO Max hit medical

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drama The Pit. I haven't seen Ernest Harden jun in

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a long time, so he's coming in the studio on

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the back half of this hour to wrap our program today.

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Will celebrate Ernest and this Emmy nomination. I A'm mad

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at him, but we commenced this hour with our friend

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and brother, Galen Drew will take the political prediction market

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to task here in a moment with Galen of a

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gd politics podcast, and I'm glad to have getting back Jiden.

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Speaker 2: How are you, sir, I'm good. Thanks so much for

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having me.

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Speaker 1: It's good to hear your voice. Thanks for your time.

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Let me just we would talk about a few political

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issues earlier today, and I want to just circle back

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to one or two of those right quick, just to

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get your get your your read on it. Then we'll

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push forward to this uh. This uh, this this prediction

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market that seems to still get stuff wrong, even after

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all these years of of uh hopefully getting better at

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the at the polls that we that we take. UH.

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We were talking earlier about a couple of things. One

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let me start with the Democratic Convention. They've narrowed down

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the final three cities where they're going to meet, so Philadelphia, Boston,

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and Denver. We talked about this in the first hour

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of our program. I said, then I say in this

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hour now, I'm not so sure that the cities matter.

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These days, these races come down to a number of

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swing states, and as you well know better than most

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of us, a few districts inside those swing states. And

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there's all this consternation about where the convention is going

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to be held. Atlanta was bypassed. The black mayor of

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Atlanta has said it's a slap in the face to

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black voters. So now there's another squabble up inside the

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Democratic Party. I'm just not so sure that location, uh

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makes the difference that it used to make. And yet

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here we are talking about where the Democratic which is

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going to be when we know it comes down to

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swing states and a few districts wants again in those states.

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That's my read? What's your read?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I fig you're exactly right. Folks will remember how

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in twenty sixteen, Democrats held the national Convention in Philadelphia

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that summer, and of course Hillary Clinton went on to

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win Pennsylvania. Oh wait, sorry, she lost Pennsylvania. So yeah,

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you're right. Where these conventions are ultimately held don't matter.

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I mean, I'm not even sure how much the convention

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itself really moves voters. In the middle of the summer.

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The people who are going to be paying attention to

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political content like this are probably going to be people

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who pay so much attention to politics that they already

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have a good sense of who they're going to vote for.

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Right Like your marginal swing voter who doesn't pay that

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much attention to politics and doesn't have a strong opinion on,

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you know, a public option for healthcare or what to

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do on immigration. That person is probably not tuning into

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a whole bunch of political speeches in the middle of

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the summer. They're at the beach, they're taking care of

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their kids, they're visiting their family. So I think that

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these can be like fun set pieces, and the media

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gets really excited and the party gets really excited. If anything,

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what these helped do. I mean, you mentioned Denver, and

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folks might remember that in two thousand and eight, the

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National Democratic Convention was in Denver, and it was a

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really big moment for Barack Obama becoming the first black

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nominee of the party, and there was a lot of

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excitement around him. And so I think if you do

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have a candidate who achieves something of the celebrity status

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that Barack Obama did in two thousand and eight, it

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can help drive enthusiasm and excitement, and it maybe help

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sets the tone narratively in the media, and then that

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sprinkles or trickles down to the voters. But I think

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the convention itself, you'd be hard pressed to say, oh,

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you know, Donald Trump had a really good convention twenty

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twenty four in Milwaukee, and that's why he ended up

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winning the twenty twenty four presidential election. I don't think

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anybody would claim.

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Speaker 1: That we'll pick up on Gataen's phraseology when we come

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forward here of setting the tone in the media. I

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wonder if he thinks that Donald Trump's convention the first

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time ever Republicans have held a mid term convention. As

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I mentioned earlier, they have chosen Dallas. Speaking of site locations,

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they've chosen Dallas September ninth and tenth. It is still

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not dead of summer. Once you get past Labor Day,

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things start to quiet down a little bit. But we

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are we're gonna be forced to pay attention to this

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convention September nine and ten. In that eight week sprint

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from labor Day to election day. There's the reason why

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they waited till September, not August to do this their

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right smack dab in that eight week sprint again, from

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Labor Day to the election day, will that convention set

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the tone in any way in the media and beyond

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for Republicans to, if not put off on upset in November,

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at least out the blood letting that many people expect.

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We'll talk about that with Galen and a great deal

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more when we come forward on Tavias Smiley and Galen

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Drew one of the best in the business in the

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political business. He is the host of the non partisan

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podcast gd Politics and always pleased to be in a

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conversation with him. We were talking a moment ago about

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the Democratic Convention Democrats have now narrowed their list down

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to three cities. They've been there before. I've been to

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all three in my career covering the Democratic Party. Boston, Philadelphia,

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and Denver. Of course, Denver's Galen said where Obama was

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when he accepted the nomination. You recall he did it

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on August twenty eighth, the day of the anniversary of

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the March on Washington, so his historic moment black nominee

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on August twenty eight, also the same day they murdered

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him at Tills. There's a lot happening in that particular

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day in Denver, and I was sitting there with Dr

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Cornell West and Muhammad Ali, and never forget, as long

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as I live, I'm sitting between Doc and Ali the

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champ at that speech. A great moment in my life

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to be sitting between those two guys. But they've narrowed

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it down those three cities. Atlanta did not make the

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final list, and the mayor, the black mayor of Atlanta,

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but Andrea had something to say about it, suggesting that

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it's a diss to black voters that they didn't choose

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Atlanta in a year where you're gonna need twenty twenty eight,

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you're gonna need the black base to help save this party.

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But that conversation continues them again just another example of

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another squabble up. As I said earlier inside the Democratic Party.

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All that said, that's what we were talking about. Now,

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I want to add this to the docket. Galen, So,

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Donald Trump and Republicans. By the way, Gayta and I

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both agree that the city doesn't even matter so much

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these days. Nobody's you know, really tapped in in that way.

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And as I said earlier, and I think Gaden agrees

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that these these races at the national level come down

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to a handful of spring states, a handful of districts

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in those swing states, So wherever you are doesn't really

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make a difference. In Gayta and that the best joke

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of the day, best line of the day about Hillary

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Clinton in Philadelphia. They went to Philadelphia her convention where

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she got the nomination, and she went on to lose

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the state of Pennsylvania. So doesn't really matter who knows.

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But Donald Trump has decided that they're going to do

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something they've never done before, Republicans, that is meeting in Dallas,

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Texas September nine and ten, in smack dab or I

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shouldn't say smack dab at the outset really of that

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eight week sprint from labor day to the election day

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they're going to Texas. Democrats have not responded in kind

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with a midterm convention that I am aware of Galen,

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but it does mean that for a couple of days,

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not that he didn't dominate the news every day anyway,

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but for a couple of days, their party, their platform,

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their issues will be dominating the news. Is it going

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to rally the base? Will it make a difference.

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Speaker 2: I don't think it will make a difference. And I

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think if most political advisors were advising the Republican Party

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on this, they tell them, maybe don't hold this convention.

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I mean, I don't know. There's a way I guess

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you can do it. That you could try to highlight

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areas where the public views the Republican Party positively. The

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problem is, there just aren't that many areas in polling

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right now that suggest the public views Republicans positively. So like,

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on one hand, okay, people have soured on the economy,

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on inflation, on immigration enforcement and the like, So maybe

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you would say, okay, we really need to get people

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excited about President Trump. Right, He's got all of these

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people who support him who don't necessarily turn out in

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midterm years, and we're going to focus a lot on

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Trump and get people really riled up to go vote,

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you know, once early voting starts and in November and the like.

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The problem is President Trump is historically unpopular. He's net

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negative twenty points underwater. And so if you put on

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a big affair reminding everybody about Donald Trump and everything

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about him and that he's in the White House right now,

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I mean, you may get a few extra Republican voters

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to turn out who might otherwise have stayed home because

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they're really only in the party for Trump. But at

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the same time, you're probably going to activate a bunch

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of either independent or Democrats who don't like the president.

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And there are far more Americans who don't like the president.

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Of it then like the president. You could argue for

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the alternative and you could say, hey, there's too much

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focus on the unpopularity of Trump. We really want to

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focus on the issues. Well, what do people care most about?

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The economy?

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Speaker 1: Right?

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Speaker 2: Trump is thirty percentage points underwater on the economy and inflation,

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and so Okay, well, are we then going to focus

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on foreign policy? I mean, vir war and war is unpopular,

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so like it's going to be difficult to pick a

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topic where you can really hammer the Democrats. I mean,

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if I was advising them as a Republican strategist, I

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would say, maybe the border. You can celebrate how the

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border has been secured under Trump. That's popular. You can

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talk about areas where Democrats are unpopular, maybe on some

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trans issues or you know, some policing or crime issues.

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But the thing is that's not at the top of

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voter's list right now. So if you put on a

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convention and all you're talking about is crime and trans people,

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I think you will also send voters the sense that like, oh,

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you don't actually care about my number one issue right now.

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Speaker 1: Yep. I was about to ask you, and you are

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pressing and prophetic. I was about to ask you, what

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should they lean in on, given that he's unpopular domestically

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and nobody cares about this Iran war carries for rather

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this Iran war. You've answered that question, But let me

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take a step further here though, in terms of leaning

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in I'm thinking out loud here. There are some interesting

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I'm putting that word in air quotes. There's some interesting

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candidates that they have in these midterms. I can see

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them showcasing, if you will, some of the candidates they

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have over and against these DSA candidates who they call,

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you know, gihattist and communists, et cetera, et cetera. I'm

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thinking of people like Byron Donald's in Florida, a black

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guy running for governor, John James and Michigan a black

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guy running for governor. There are others. Is that perhaps

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one of the frames they are to operate inside of

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just showcasing their talent, as it were, in the midterm elections,

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beyond even Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: I think that's a really good point, and I think

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that's certainly going to be a big part of it.

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I mean, Mike Rogers, I think we're going to hear

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a lot about him. Right again, I don't know what

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the lineup is for the convention. Mike Rodgers, the Republican

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senator is sorry, the Republican senatorial nominee in Michigan is

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running against Democratic nominee Abdul Elsa Ed. Of course, he's

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not a member of the DSA, but he's quite progressive

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and aligned with a lot of things that the Socialists

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are aligned on. And currently, although Michigan you would expect

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from the political environment to be quite blue right now,

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Mike Rogers is leading in early polling, and so that

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that is certainly I would say that in that race,

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Democrats have a weaker candidate than they would have wanted,

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and Republicans have a rather strong candidate. You know, Mike

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Rogers lived out most of his political career before Trump

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was ever in office, and so he can claim to

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be a kind of pre Trump Republican who you know,

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doesn't dabble in all of the craziness and et cetera,

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et cetera, et cetera, and try to appeal to more

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independent or moderate voters in Michigan. I imagine that that

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he's going to be somebody who you know, gets a

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primetime slot. I think the same with Bira Donalds. Again,

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I don't think they would focus too much on Florida

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because I don't think Republicans really fear Democrats in the

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state of Florida anymore. But certainly, I mean Texas will

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be an interesting one, right because the convention is going

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to be in Dallas. They're going to be facing off

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against James Tallerico, the Democrat at the top of the ballot.

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But they don't have a particularly strong Republican candidate in

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that Senate race, and so you know, who are they

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going to put forward there? Maybe Greg Abbott, the governor,

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who is perhaps a bit more popular and expected, I think,

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expected to win his race even if James Tyllerico were

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to win. And so if you go state by state,

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I think they really will be trying to I mean,

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Susan Collins is certainly somebody that they'll be trying to highlight,

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to try to give people the sense you're right that

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you know this is the party is not extreme. The

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party is not just Donald Trump. The party is these

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other people as well, and then at the same time

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try to remind folks, hey, the Democrats are the crazy ones,

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They're the extremists, et cetera, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: No, I think, I think, I think the agenda if

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I'm if I'm running the convention, I'm not. Uh, I

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know it would be. But if I'm running it, I'm

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going to spend all my time clowning DSA. I'm going

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to clown these progressives. I'm gonna remind you that they're

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they're taking America down a rabbit hole and a direction

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that we really don't want to go. That throughout a

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step and out of touch with your values, et cetera,

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et cetera. Uh. And to your point about Texas, I

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just read today a couple of different prognosticators have put

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Iowa in Texas. Now, those races, the Senate races, in

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the toss up category. So to your point about tall Rico,

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he has a shot in Texas, and so they Abbousie

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are in Dallas for this convention. They need to shore

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up whatever chances they're going to have to win this race,

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the Senate race in Texas that is. But again Iowa

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and Texas I was reading today a couple of folk

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have not put in the sort of toss up category.

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But I just I spend my time clowning the DSA

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and advancing and promoting rather the candidates that that we

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have that I think are more in touch with the

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ethics and values of the typical American voter. All that said,

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to what extent to your mind, is Trump the ticket?

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Or put another way, is Trump still on the ticket

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even though we know he's not literally on the ticket.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, that's how politics works. Right at the

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end of the day, Trumps president. If people are mad

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with how the country is going, he's the most obvious

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target of people's ire and you can change the subject.

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And Americans have become more partisans, so there are a

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lot of and also the parties have become more extreme.

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I mean, when they talk about things that the DSA says,

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they're not necessarily going to be making things up. They

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may well be talking about positions that the DSA takes

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that are out of step with the majority of Americans.

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And so to the extent that that's the case, Democrats

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have put themselves in a worse position than they might

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otherwise have been in had they not gone down that path.

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At the same time, nobody in DSA is running the

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federal government, and so it's going to be hard to

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convince people that, you know, somebody in New York City

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or even one candidate in Michigan. Right, maybe abdua Elsie

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will lose again he's not part of the DSA. Maybe

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he'll lose, But that doesn't now necessarily mean that, say,

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you know, Democrats will lose in Texas and Iowa and

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Maine and North Carolina, and elsewhere. A real sort of

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important piece for Democrats this cycle is differentiating themselves from

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the National Democratic Party. Like, if you look at the

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popularity of the Republican Party and Democratic Party right now,

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Democrats are still a little bit less popular than the

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Republican Party. So I don't think anybody is trying to

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who wants to win a competitive election is trying to

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cast their lot with the Democratic Party. They're trying to say,

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I'm an independent thinker, I go against my party when

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it suits the state, that kind of thing. And so

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you know, I think both both Democrats and Republicans in

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competitive states are going to be running against their own

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party and their own leadership, right Republican You've even seen

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this with Steve Hilton in California who said, you know,

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you can hate Trump and still vote for me. I mean,

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he's not going to win the gubernatorial race in California,

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But like that's the kind of message that people that

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Republicans in difficult races are going to want to send,

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which is, even if you're frustrated with the current president,

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you can vote for me. By the same token, Democrats

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will be saying, even if you're frustrated with the Democratic Party.

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I am still going to be looking out for your

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best interests, you know, Democratic voters in Iowa.

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Speaker 1: We're doing a big event here in LA with those

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in LA have already in California as they are hearing

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about it. A big event here in LA on October third,

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featuring all the candidates running for statewide office, a governor

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on down. Steve Hilton, aforementioned by Galen Droup will be there,

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as will have Yourbasara and all the others running for

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state wide office, including I should say, in addition to that,

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we'll have the mayorl candidates here in La, Karen Bass,

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Nathie Rahman, the Sheriff's candidates here in La, Luneeva and Luna,

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the city attorney candidates here in La. Roy and McKinney.

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Everybody joining us on October third for our big event.

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Check out any of our socials to read more about

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this all day event that we're going to be broadcasting

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live on this radio station, live streaming, and I'm pleased

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to announce that c SPAN is tapping as well to

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cover this gathering on that day. Gonna be a huge

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day October third for our California Voices, town hall and

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ballot form again. Read more about it online. You don't

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want to miss that. It's gonna be a great day

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here in California, sort of a political Lollapaloosa all day

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long from eight am to five pm. I've got three

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minutes left, gate and let me u the balance of

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my time. As they say in DC, to you, what's

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up with these fake polls that are rocking races, including

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the mayor's racer in LA. And the prediction market got

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it wrong in a few places this time around. Talk

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to me about the prediction market if you will, in

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the three minutes I had left.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So, the bad news is somebody put out a

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fake poll. The good news is that they were caught,

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and that most of the folks who aggregate the polls,

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who create polling averages, never included the fake polsters anyway,

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because they go through a rigorous process of vetting any

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polster that they're going to put into the average. So

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they ask them who's behind the poll, what kind of

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methodology are they using in the like, So I think

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that's important to say. You know, the prediction markets are

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only they're supposed to be the wisdom of the crowds,

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and so they're only as wise as the crowds, and

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most people are. I mean, a couple things happened where

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there was really big polling error in Michigan and Wisconsin.

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And also I think most people don't realize how uncertain

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those polls can be. So just as an example, I mean,

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the polls got it pretty wrong, and there are technical

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reasons why that happened. They were undersampling older voters and

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voters of color within the Democratic Party because so many

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pollsters have leaned into online polls and text messaging polls,

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which makes it harder to reach older people, It makes

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it harder to reach rural people, it makes it harder

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to reach, you know, people who don't just have a

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bunch of time in the middle of the day to

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be answering online polls essentially, And so that's a problem

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that polsters are going to have to figure out. But

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the average error in a statewide primary is twelve points

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and that's the exact error that happened in Michigan. So

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while the pollsters did mess up, it's important to keep

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in mind and I'm talking about primaries here, not general elections.

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Primaries are the most uncertain kind of race you can

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pull because folks can change their mind pretty easily. To

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go to one candidate, from one candidate to the other,

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you're switching from one Democrat to another Democrat. That's an

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easier change to make than to go from a Republican

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to a Democrat or vice versa, which is what happens

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in the general election. So I would say, in order

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to avoid being tricked by these things, pay close attention

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to what kind of race is being pulled. And remember

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the polls have always this is not new, have always

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been prone to error, and some poles in some races

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are more prone than others.

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Speaker 1: Gaiden Drewkes around the best at this and that's why

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we keep him on speed Out and get him on

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as often as we can. We'll talk to him a

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few more times, I hope and suspect between now and

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election day. And I'm a third He is host of

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the non Protestant podcast gd Politics. Always grateful to have

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you on the program, getting appreciate your insights, man, and

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enjoy the rest of your day.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for having me.

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Speaker 1: More of Tavis Smota been we come forward