Speaker 1: Three two one.
Speaker 2: You all welcome to the best sports betting show on
the planet. This is Wager Talk Today. I am your host,
Andy Lang. We are diving deep today into college football.
Jesse's going to join us talk a couple of teams
in the Big Twelve. We're going to talk about attacking
the second half of the MLB season, and we're going
to do some bankroll resets. Are gonna show you how
we're going to attack the the betting markets, at least
how I am with this new tax law. So we'll
talk about that at the end, and then we're gonna
do the very difficult Raiders seven and a half season
win total. And Andrew McGinnis is going to give us
some CFL looks and a free play. Happy Wednesday, everybody,
hope five dollars Tuesday treated everybody good. Hit the like
button and subscribe to the channel. I mean, we're like
a few people away from two hundred and ten thousand subscribers.
We're almost there, almost there, And we have a couple winners.
Speaker 1: Dan, you want to do the winners of the of
the the flex pass.
Speaker 3: Oh, I love that right out the game, you know,
it gives some people some excitement. Reasons to comment below, Baby.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely so.
Speaker 2: I had some really really good comments Chris, you were
the random winner.
Speaker 1: I love the OVA. Oh v a h I love it.
Speaker 2: And then the comment with the wife being the suffering
Giants fan. That's always going to have our attention. Uh So,
user name Tommy point us your name, Johnny. Congratulations, you
guys are the big winners for these.
Speaker 3: And Andy, uh you you were correct, you were you
were saying, I feel like we're gonna see a lot
of Giants unders. I think there were like three comments
about Giants overs, but yeah, they win three days of
flex picks men, And it's that easy. You watch the
show here, you're joining us live. We love doing the
live chat with you. Comment below after the video goes,
comment with your wager Talk username and boom, you're automatically
entered in to win some some free action here from
wager Talking. Sometimes we do the swag giveaways to Andy.
So more reasons than ever to join that conversation below
and make sure you subscribe.
Speaker 2: Baby, absolutely so. Congratulations to you guys. See we're already
giving out winners. All right, let's bring in Giohnny, Let's
talk Steam Report. Johnny Happy Wednesday.
Speaker 1: How are you never better?
Speaker 4: Brother?
Speaker 5: Coming off a nice easy fin dollar winner over over
in the All Star Game. Also hit our NBA hit
our time. I think I swept last night, perfect three
and zero. I love this time of year. It's great
to find those other markets already. Subscribers you should have received.
We have pending ranked now. There's a tennis play that
I gave out yesterday that's for free. That's also available
up on the free page site at wager Talk. I
sent out a golf play and a tennis play, so
we have two golf I mean two tennis and a
golf play. I added also another free premium today that's
available for you guys, a four percent another four percenter,
this one I believe is in golf that I release.
We also bet a dog in tennis, and I gave
out four NBA Summer League already perfect again in Summer
League yesterday. So uh yeah, like I said, these smaller markets, man,
that's where the money is. I know, it's the break
with with with baseball, and people are kind of taking
all these few days. But as you could see, I'm
not even changing. I'm just in work gear these next
few days.
Speaker 1: It's a good.
Speaker 5: Opportunity to make money. Like I said, all star breaks
good good, good time, good time makes some money.
Speaker 1: Any steam that we should note.
Speaker 2: I know we got a w NBA game that's just
tipped off, and we got Summer League, we got tennis.
As you mentioned UFC, I haven't seen too much movement
in UFC lines anything of note today.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 5: In w NBA Atlanta got hit early. That line just
moved way too quickly and way too significantly. Probably somebody
wasn't playing, but Atlanta did get early steam as well
as the under. So Atlanta and under in that early game.
If you see anything that offers a little bit of value,
live just not that's the sharp side Atlanta and the under.
Also Minnesota later on Minnesota minus eight and a half,
Minnesota minus nine in WNBA action, and also the under
from one fifty eight and a half all the way
down the one fifty seven under, Golden State and Seattle.
That's what has gotten hit so far in WNBA action. Again,
like I said, the early game, Atlanta and the under.
I was able to get down for the groups that
I moved that for, but the line just moved too quickly.
So unfortunately subscribers that's why you haven't got WNBA.
Speaker 4: Don't be pissed.
Speaker 5: If we weren't getting the good numbers, I'm not going
to send them out. And the number on Atlanta and
even the under was just was gone by the time,
you know, I saw in the way to talk back
end the line had just moved too much. In so League,
like I said, I released four plays two subscribers already.
I'll give you guys one of the premiums here. Uh,
Brooklyn we took. I'll give you Brooklyn because we took Brooklyn,
started taking Brooklyn at plus two, took the nets, and
then took the nets on the money line as well simultaneously.
When they went to pick them, we laid the pick
and laid the minus one as well, and even had
some Brooklyn money line. So Brooklyn got bet as a
dog and even got bet as a slight favorite of
a pick them minus one. So laid a little juice
there after getting two on Brooklyn, and uh, like I said,
Summer League, that the lines moved pretty quickly there. As
you can see the Brooklyn I think now they're probably
like two point favorites. We started betting the when they
were two point dogs. That's sharp and uh Summer League
and maybe I'll add another free play. Like I said,
four came in so far. But these groups are starting
to bet the Summer League as I speak, and hopefully
we get some confirmation in w n B A because
so far or it's just been Minnesota and the under
in Golden State.
Speaker 6: Seattle, nothing really in MMA yet.
Speaker 5: In the UFC, I think that will start to pick
up probably tomorrow and uh Friday, and that's usually when
the bulk of the action comes in and you start
seeing some of the bigger line moves in the UFC.
I haven't seen really anything too significantly other than Max
Holloway moving the line moving in his favor, which I expected. Again,
Dustin opened as the favorite, that didn't last very long
at all. That line flipped immediately to where Max was
the favorite, and since then he's getting a little bit
of money. But don't don't be surprised if this line
comes way back. I think the Dustin betters just haven't
gotten to the window yet. I think they'll start speaking
probably Friday and Saturday, because again, if you've seen the
line move up, he could have got plus one ten yesterday,
but you get plus one fifteen, one twenty today. You're
gonna wait and see if you get twenty five or
one thirty tomorrow. So I think the dust money is
still going to come in. And I'm a little bit
surprised to see Ega just continuing to get bet. I
was surprised that he got hit at minus one eighty,
but the fact that he's getting hit at minus two hundred,
minus two ten and I'm seeing minus two twenty in
a shop like ben online, who I respect a lot
when it comes to MMA. Uh, yeah, Ega is getting
blasted for some reason. And again Pitbull looked as bad
as you could possibly look, So I think there's a
little recency bias to that price.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: The WNBA game, Atkins and Angel Reese were ruled out.
That's why.
Speaker 2: That's why that play got That play got hit really hard.
So if you guys are watching it live and you
want to live bet, you could look at Cardoza over
her rebounds. She only has one to start the game,
but her total was nine and a half. She's going
to be the big playing most of the minutes. So
Brian ass was asking about any regular season win totals
that you have in your eye on Gianni by the way,
your your your proclamation about the Tigers. I think they
lost four in a row to take it down to
sixty point eight.
Speaker 1: So, uh, that's where it is.
Speaker 5: It's not like I'm a psychic.
Speaker 4: It's just it's the we see it every year. It's
just the repeat. Why you got to change.
Speaker 6: Nothing's going to change.
Speaker 5: And everybody's been bashing me all about Detroit.
Speaker 1: Detroit.
Speaker 5: They keep winning, they keep winning.
Speaker 4: Just just let's see where it ends.
Speaker 5: Let's see where it ends, how it all turns out.
I'm trying to find season win totals for second half
and I just don't.
Speaker 4: I'm not seeing them.
Speaker 2: Okay, I got all DraftKings. Uh so maybe maybe we'll
do that topic tomorrow if you can find them.
Speaker 5: Yeah, because like again, none of my uh I can't
bet it. Like again, I have something those those those books,
but I use them for some live stuff. I'm not
going to bet this ship, excuse me, like to get
it flagged off of that stuff for like DraftKings or fanduels.
But yeah, even my my off screen outs don't have
second half season win totals. And I just keep hitting
refreshed because I have my numbers already my guy sent
it to me where he expects all these team to
finish when the dust settles. He made his adjust you know,
all his updates at heading into the break. But yeah,
hopefully we have some of the more and it we
could go over. I'll make sure I look for even
if the draftking ones, I'll even pull those up and
give you some that I think of offer up some value
for you guys.
Speaker 1: All right? That all right, Brian, Well we'll do a little.
Speaker 2: Bit more deep dive on that tomorrow. So Giohnny, congratulations
on the five dollars play.
Speaker 1: Nice sweep. What do you have up for clients today?
Speaker 4: All right?
Speaker 5: We got our UFC package up. The five percent is
already in there.
Speaker 4: Love that play.
Speaker 5: That's already up and a valuable I have my NFL
season win Totals and Futures package, and I combined it
with college football, so it's just one package, NFL and
college football season win Totals and futures. Like I said,
stuff will just be coming in there as I confirm
confirm the first college football season win total that went
out already to subscribers. We'll have some more between now
and kick off of the first weekend of college football
and NFL, And again there's just I can't package up
the NBA Summer League because the lines, you're just not
going to be able to get the lions, Like, if
you're not a subscriber, you're not going to get the lines.
We have enough time to get down, but you don't
have more than like fifteen minutes or so. The lines
are going to really really start moving, so unfortunately you
can't put them in a package. But baseball is almost
back and we'll have daily packages up again.
Speaker 4: I'm sure they got.
Speaker 5: Some long term special for you guys, because we're running
hot right now and really excited about the second half
of baseball and football ahead.
Speaker 2: All right, great stuff Giohnny the Greek go check him
out at Where's your Talk?
Speaker 1: Happy Wednesday?
Speaker 2: Continued success Johnny, So Arius asking give the numbers of
what a one percent five per cent play looks like
in terms of bank world management. Yes, Arius, I will
do that at the end. We've kind of forgotten to
do that last week, so I will get back to
showing you guys some bankroll management.
Speaker 1: I'll show you my bank roll. I'll show you what
we did with.
Speaker 2: Our bets last week, how we lowered the volume, and
we'll talk about the percentages and the flat betting.
Speaker 1: So yes, absolutely we will go over that. So let's
go all around the world here.
Speaker 2: Let's do some free plays, and I'm gonna give you
a free play that I'm guessing is in a sport
that we have never mentioned at all. So I'm very
excited about this one, Dan, But let's start with MLS.
We'll go Chicago at Atlanta. This this comes from Nick Borman.
We're gonna do a parlay both teams to score plus
the over two.
Speaker 1: And a half.
Speaker 2: Chicago eleven for eleven on this particular play this season,
so can't beat that. And then the last two home
games for Atlanta they've scored seven and they've given up four.
They haven't done a lot on offense last couple of games,
but those are on the road, so Atlanta's back at home,
so look for both teams to score plus over two
and a half. NASCAR, we're going with Alex Bowman to
finish in the top ten. He's had a couple of
lousy finishes this track. He loves This is Dove for
fifth and eighth last two races here, and he has
several top ten finishes at track similar to this one,
so you can get that one at minus one fifteen.
And yes, I'm playing a power slap play. This is
a parlay piece. His name is Emmanuel Moonees and he
is fantastic. He's only got two recent losses. They were
split decision losses.
Speaker 1: I thought he won one of them. And he's facing a.
Speaker 2: Guy who's one in two in power slap. Moonies is
one of the best. He's got an iron chin and
he hits like a truck. This guy, he's this guy
he's facing is completely overmatch. So you won a parlay piece.
Take a look at Emanuel Moone's in power Slap. So, yes,
those are your free plays. You're welcome everybody for the
power slap content. All right, we put something together special
for the All Star break here, guys, just for the viewers,
it's full season access to both NFL and college football.
Speaker 1: This gets you every football play all the way through.
Speaker 2: The Super Bowl and National Championship. It's locked down for
seven seventy seven and if you want to add the
rest of MLB with that, only ninety nine dollars.
Speaker 1: It's less than a.
Speaker 2: Dollar a day three Sports one price. This is the
early bird special on football. So if you know you're
gonna get football, might as well lock it in right now.
That way, you can take advantage of the second half
of MLB season with your favorite capper. So again, NFL
College Football, this is the All Star Break special. Add
the second half of MLB for under one dollar per
day any handicapper that is on the deals page over
at wager talk dot com.
Speaker 1: All right, let's bring in Andrew Beginnis. We got to
get our we gotta get our CFL fixed in here.
Speaker 2: So, Andrew, how would you say the CFL season is
kind of progressing here? Do we have the haves the
have nots? Do we have a runaway favorite? What's your
take so far? What are we week seven?
Speaker 6: Week seven?
Speaker 1: Yeah, weird.
Speaker 7: We're officially a third of the way through this and
so far, Andy, I say the takeaway for this season
would be the parody we thought we had going into
this year, and we were kind of talking up going
into this season just isn't really there as much. There's
the bottom feeders, there's the middle class, and then there's
the top of the top. There's been some surprise teams
like the Calgary Stampeders, and some teams have played better
than we expected maybe, but when it ultimately comes down
to it, we expected more from some of the bottom
teams this year and so far, the Red Blacks, the
Edmonton Elks, same old, same old teams here. So but
everyone's saying dog days of Summer the most quiet week
in sports. I got a game Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday
in the CFL. I'm excited about it. You get me excited,
and you talk about the all around the world segment
because I never know what the hell's sport you're going
to talk about and get out there a power slap replay.
I mean, I love it. And this is the best part.
I mean, we had Giohnny talking about it. There's always
something going on right now in sports, always something talk about.
Speaker 2: Well, let's talk a little bit about a specific play here.
We're going to take a look at the rough Riders
in the BC Lions. What is your take on this game?
Speaker 7: Andy, I always want to give out plays that everybody
else is able to get down on it. As of
late the past few years, props and team totals overall
have become more and more available in the CFL betting marketplace.
So in this one, we're going to look at over
twenty six and a half team total for the BC Lions.
When I look at this Lions team, well, they've had
a tough schedule.
Speaker 6: You know.
Speaker 7: I really had a lot of faith in them coming
into this year. But the only easy games they've had
this year are against the exact same team, two games
against the Edmonton Elks. Other than that, they've played Winnipeg twice,
they've played Saskatchewan already, and they played the Montreal Alouettes
where they came back and had to win that game
by just one point.
Speaker 6: So when I look at this team, I.
Speaker 7: Feel like they're about to go on a role and
I feel like their offense maybe doesn't even look as
good so far than they're capable of just based on
their schedule. And don't get me wrong, I know it's
only a nine team league, so how easy could their
schedule have been? But they haven't really had too many
easy games. Now they're coming off a game against the
Elks where they put up thirty two points, and across
all sports at CFL, NFL, NBA, NHL, whatever it might be,
there's two ways that I approach when a team is
coming off a victory over a really bad team. Is
it a team that could have used a confidence boost?
Is it a spot where they could have used momentum?
And if so, I think they used that momentum to
roll into their next game. But if it was a
team that had all kinds of momentum beforehand and then
they played a bad team, maybe they could slow the
role a little bit and like Marco says, get a
little bit too fat and sassy. But this was a
Lion's team that needed an ego boost, needed a confidence boost,
and they put up thirty two points last week. Not
to mention, saskatchew one lost their first game of the
year last week. I think that will kind of hit
them a little bit and they're gonna lose two in
a row now. And also the icing on the cake.
I saw yesterday a report not one, not two, but
three DB's injured for Saskatchewan. Three key defensive players for
Saskatchewan did not practice. That's all I need to see
to take this team total up and over twenty six
and a half of the Lions.
Speaker 2: Three that's the entire bench is playing guys.
Speaker 1: Oh man, that is that is brutal man. Yeah, that's
that's right.
Speaker 7: You don't want to overreact right to injury information, Like
you don't want to be like, oh, these guys are injured,
so let's jump on this.
Speaker 6: But I already liked the play. It just made it
that much better.
Speaker 1: You also don't want to underreact, you know. Yeah, that's
a that's a that's a that's a big one there.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 2: The Edmonton Elks, man, they just just kick get out
of their own way.
Speaker 1: Someone posts.
Speaker 2: It's like they're just out there just just to be
out there.
Speaker 1: Like you're just going through the motions.
Speaker 2: No heart, no, no, nothing inspiring, just just just brutal.
So you and I have talked a lot about team totals,
and that's something that you and I wanted to attack,
and you and I have been you know, to saying, hey,
we're gonna get ready to do this for NFL season.
We dabbled in it in NFL and found a lot
of success. It just feels like when you're when you're
focusing on one team and what can they do on
offense versus the other team's defense, it just feels like
it's a much easier handicap there. So I know you
and I have talked about team totals Yeah, what's your
expectation for team totals moving forward?
Speaker 7: Absolutely, Andy, I just love being able to narrow in
on one team, one team only. You know, if you're
you know, around the water cooler the next day, or
if you're at a bar you're talking to your friends,
you're not complaining about a backdoor cover or how this
team screwed you or this defense screwed you. I mean,
imagine how many Bengals betters could have made money last
year just making the team total and not worrying about
them having to win the game or cover a point
spread and things like that. And you know, one thing
I will say to people about the team totals is,
don't be afraid to take those numbers that might put
you kind of over that football number, right, So let's
say a twenty one and a half or a twenty
seven and a half. Like people are always interested in
taking the number that seems the best, but you know,
sometimes those are there for a reason and there's no
problem going over that. Like, for example, for me, during
the NHL season, if I had a team that was
over three and a half minus one twenty five, I
might have found a different way to get in. But
if I saw that plus one oh five plus one ten,
sometimes that was the range I liked a little bit.
So one thing I like about it the most is
that you can manage your bank roll properly. And I
always think back to the NHL season. This past NHL
season was the time I had the most team totals
and andy my hit percentage was fifty one point six
and I was up like twenty two units on the season.
So it really changes your winning percentage when you're limiting
your risk, factoring your juice.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you. I can't wait to attack it
a little bit more.
Speaker 2: In fact, when Dan and I did the Bengals break down,
we said, just take the Bengals opponent over their team total.
They can't stop anybody. They didn't improve their defense, So yeah,
we're good. We're gonna look at that moving forward.
Speaker 7: And the Elks and every team that's played them has
hit their team total for what it's worth. So fright
of you out there right there, if you want to
just lock in a bet every weekend right now, that's
what makes me laugh.
Speaker 1: So there's a.
Speaker 7: Quarterback situation right now in the CFL. Everyone thinks that
the guy that's been on the bench for Edmonton, should
be the starter.
Speaker 6: I probably agree with that. He's the veteran.
Speaker 7: They're trying to bring in the younger guy and kind
of get Trey Ford going. But you can't really get
mad at a quarterback if his team's given up thirty
five points on average per game. Like I understand he's
not really driving the ball and maintaining possession. But if
I'm a fan of that team or a sports better
taking that team every week, I'm like, you can't really
blame the QB if your team's given up thirty five
to forty points, you know what I mean?
Speaker 2: And Andy, yeah, absolutely absolutely, But yeah you find these
find these trends and just ride them, man, just absolutely
write them. So yeah, Faith the Elks feels like that's
feels like we could have retired years ago if we
would have just stuck to this over the last few years.
So congratulations, you're number one in CFL year today at
wager talking, I know we're running the special, so tell
everyone about that.
Speaker 7: Really excited Andy about this, Yes, number one since the preseason,
and we're combining the package. You buy the CFL, you're
gonna get thirty days of NFL access for free. And
it started off as a really slow year in the
NFL last year, but I really picked it up. I
think a lot of it was the team totals, and
a lot of it were the props that I started attacking.
But I went a perfect nine to zero in the
postseason in the playoffs, So I'm chomping at the bit.
I cannot wait for NFL to get back. So if
you guys want to join me the rest of the
CFL season, only a third of the way through the year,
you're going to get all the rest of the CFL
plus my first thirty days. That does include NFL preseason.
And I'll tell you guys this with the CFL, I
say it every time I'm on here. If you ever
have heard someone use the expression line movement, you haven't
seen line movement like CFL line movement. I feel bad
for anybody trying to buy daily picks in CFL. People
wonder where my packages are, but I can't have them up.
The lines move too fast. If you guys want to
get involved, we're turning minus four and a half bets
into closing lines of minus eight and a halfs.
Speaker 6: You don't see that in other sports. NFL.
Speaker 7: It's minus six and a half and a big move
is to minus seven and a half. That's nothing compared
to the CFL. You guys want to jump on board
with me the rest of my CFL plus thirty days
in the NFL. So seven and three run right now.
Looking forward to the weekend, we've got a big five
percent play going Friday night.
Speaker 2: Love it man, continued success. Hold on to that number
one spot. We say on the show, like, we're not
doing this thing. We're on number one last eighteen days
and one percent players or everything. But yeah, listen, when
you're number one in a in a sport for the season, yes,
that is bragging, right, So congratulations, good luck on that
play and take advantage of CFL hidden Gem, hidden jem
to build your bankroll.
Speaker 1: Guys, CFL and Andrews doing it upright.
Speaker 2: So uh yeah, Gianny missed steam on uh Korean snail Racing,
So Cam wanted to know about steam in Korean snail racing.
Snail one Speedy Shellington, not much action, Snail two, Turbo
Slim got some public action. The Sharps came back and
bought on that slime mix Slick no action, Uh Snail
mc snailey looks like nothing on there, but Slicker Racer
did take some late actions. So Cam, there is your
Korean snail racing. And yes, I did just make all
of those up. There is no there is no betting
on Korean snail racing. But if there was, but if
there was, that's your steam report. So we do it
all here. Wait wager talk today.
Speaker 1: All right, let's bring turbos there. It is Turbo slim
money line it is. Let's go, Cam, cash it baby.
Speaker 2: The good news is you cannot lose that bet. So
let's bring in Jesse and let's talk some college football.
Let's talk about some teams and some athletes that do exist. Jesse,
we're gonna talk a little bit about the Big Twelve.
And I know you've got a free play, so you
know the floor is Thers. I'm just gonna let you
go because I know you're gonna talk about Baylor in particular,
and then you're gonna talk about a.
Speaker 1: Bunch of teams. So let us have it. Man, give
us your Big twelve report.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Well, I was one of many people that were surprised
when Phil Steele came out with his Big Twelve rankings
because he had Baylor ranked number one overall in the
Big Twelve, followed by Utah and Iowa State, and most
rankings don't have any of those three teams in the
top three, so raised a lot of eyebrows. I like
Phil Steele, of course, I hate to go against him,
but I have to disagree. I think Baylor is over hyped.
I see the reason why people would be high on Baylor.
They return a lot. I think they're eleventh in the
country in returning production, so they're bringing a lot of
guys back. But I just don't think they were that
good last year. People are high on their quarterback, Sawyer Robertson.
He put up nice numbers last year, but without any
really signature wins, Like he was throwing for a ton
of yards and touchdowns against bottom feeders of the Big Twelve,
And to me, that's just not that impressive. If you
look at the teams that he beat last year Texas Tech, TCU,
Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Houston, Kansas, and Air Force. I'm
not giving him any gold stars for any of those victories.
This Baylor team sort of reminds me of twenty twenty
two NC State coming into the twenty twenty two season.
Everybody was high on NC State, and I must admit
I was buying the height myself. Their quarterback Devin Leary,
had thrown for over thirty five hundred yards and thirty
five touchdowns the season before, and they came in expected
to run away with the ACC. They ended up going
four and four in the ACC, and they were a
woe full four and nine against the spread and Lear
each threw for just twelve hundred and sixty five yards,
eleven touchdowns, and four picks. He only played six games,
but that included the non conference schedule against cupcakes, so
those numbers will give you an indication that he was
extremely disappointing. I kind of expect a similar season here
for Baylor. I think they're overhyped. I don't. I'm not
going to buy into the Sawyer Roberts and hype based
on playing eight or ten games last year and beating
up on weak opponents. So that's my opinion on Baylor.
But the rest of the Big Twelve, let's talk about
Farmageddon in Ireland. I'll be real quick with that. I
went into this game thinking, you know, Iowa State had
a fantastic season last year, I kind of feel like
they were playing over their heads and I don't want
to be jumping on the Iowa State bandwagon. That was
my initial thought. And Kansas State they look like a
team that could be on the up and up. I
think they were better than their record indicated last year.
So I really wanted to pick Kansas State in this game.
But the lines three and a half, it's at a
neutral site. You look at who everybody's bringing back. Rock
obecked a very experienced quarterback for Iowa State. Campbell, the coach,
usually puts out a competitive team, and they got a
lot of studs on defense. Yeah, they got to bring
in some new receivers in the transfer portal. I'm not
that worried about that. Kansas State may well be the
better team, but I just can't find it in me
to lay three and a half points in an international
game in Ireland at a neutral site. And the stat
Daddy gave me some numbers to work with season openers
Conference dogs fifty four thirty two and two. That's sixty
three percent again the spread. But then Kelly and Vegas
was quick to point out that only two of those
games fit the criteria of Conference dogs. That aren't in
international games, So sorry, only two of those were international games,
so take that for what you will. But I do
like the Cyclones plus the points in Ireland.
Speaker 2: Great breakdown, Jesse love it. Yeah, college football right around
the corner. So we'll keep having Jesse come on and
break down some more teams. Really good stuff. Let's talk
about MLB here. We got the break, but baseball starts
up here in just a couple of days. How are
you looking to attack the second half of the season.
You're looking to fade teams, you're looking to support teams.
Speaker 1: What's your strategy?
Speaker 4: Well, when I was looking at the schedule, they were
asking me, what are you gonna do different in the
second half? Well, I hit sixty five percent in the
first half, fifty nine and thirty two, number one with units,
number one, with win percentage number one with ROI I'm
not gonna do a whole lot different Andy, I'm gonna
stick with what I've been doing for the first half
of the season. The one slight adjustment is I'm not
going to lean into one of my criteria, which is
current form momentum, teams on winning streaks or teams on
losing streaks, because coming off the All Star break. I
don't think that's very relevant. But I'm going to tell
you how I break down a baseball game and try
not to laugh. It's going to be old school. We're
talking old school handicapping, pen and paper. I want you
to write down ten criteria and just assign either team's
advantage or if you decide there's no clear advantage, and
I'll give you the ten criteria. We're going to start,
of course, with starting pitchers. Then we're going to go
into batter versus picture matchups, bullpens, weather, home and away splits, injuries,
recent form, the momentum, winning streaks and losing streaks, situational
which is like team's coming off a doubleheader, get away day,
day game, after a night game, things like that, those
kind of situations. Park factors. If you're betting totals, you know,
you got to know how the park plays, whether it's
the wind blowing in at Wrigley or Colorado or or
you know the Sacramento Park, the Triple A Park, and
Sacramento is a real over park and history rivalry games,
you know, Yankees versus Red Sox. Sometimes one team might
be the better team, but their their rival has their
their number, and so you you assign advantages. That's ten
criteria and if you can come up with a plus four,
that's a bet on situation. And if it's any better
than plus four, hit it a little bit harder. But
that's that's a simple strategy and it's been working for
me for a couple decades now. So that's that's how
I handicap Major League Baseball.
Speaker 2: Uh, do you start to bet against teams when they
when it's pretty obvious that they're thrown in the towel
or they start trading guys or is that something that
you look at or do you just stick to those criteria?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I think that's going to go into
some of those criteria, like the situational or the history
or the current form right teams on big losing streak,
especially in the second half, teams that are tanking. But yeah,
I'm not going to change much. I mean, I do
rely heavily on starting pitching matchups and I don't like
to involve bullpens if I don't have to bullpens to me,
if you're betting the total, or if you're betting like
a run line dog, you want you have to factor
in the bullpens. But if you're just betting on like
an eight a lot because a lot of people, especially
recreational betters, guys that aren't pros, they just want to
bet on aces, right, de Gram's pitching, or Scooble or schemes. Right.
I think if you're doing that, you're wasting your time
betting on nine innings. You might as well just do
first five bets.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we've been known to have some Scooball fans in
this chat, Jesse, that's for sure.
Speaker 1: So that's awesome.
Speaker 2: Congratulations on the big first half of the baseball season.
Speaker 1: Tell over what you have up for clients at wager Talk.
Speaker 4: Yeah. Well, CFL is another sport that I've been highly
successful with, hitting over sixty percent since twenty twenty, number
one at wager Talk since twenty twenty with CFL, and
I do have two CFL plays up for Thursday and Friday,
and of course Major League Baseball second half. I'm really
excited about it. There's also a deal for the rest
of the Major League Baseball season on the deals page
wagertalk dot com and college football every game for Week
zero and Week one videos at wager Talk TV. Check
out my playlist.
Speaker 2: Love it, great breakdowns, Jesse, can't wait. Next week we'll
pick another team in conference for you to go over, Jesse.
Everybody's we're gonna do the Raiders here in just a second,
and then after that we're gonna talk about some bankroll stuff.
We're gonna get you guys ready with some spreadsheets. Listen,
nothing brings into views like spreadsheets. That's just known across
across media. So but we will talk about it. We
had a question and I'm gonna go over some things
about how to kind of combat this tax bill that
they've passed. I have my Open Championship pack that is up.
Never had a losing season in golf. A couple plays
in there already and UFC eighteen plays are up one
and zero on UFC last weekend and we hit a
crossport perlay where we hit a couple of UFC plays.
So really good weekend. Love the card this weekend. I
think it's a very very betable card. We're still holding
on to the number one spot in MMA profits and
don't forget it's a PFL week lines are not out yet,
but as soon as they.
Speaker 1: Get out, we will have those up It's.
Speaker 2: Important to grab these plays because we are very very
low volume these days.
Speaker 1: We do not have very many plays up.
Speaker 2: Last week we had ten total, and we have five
handicappers working with us.
Speaker 1: So when we put plays up, they're solid. Go grab them.
Speaker 3: All right.
Speaker 2: Let's talk about the Raiders here, springing Dan and probably
the most confusing one that we've.
Speaker 1: Had so far.
Speaker 2: Raiders seven and a half wins. They were four and
thirteen last year my opinion day, and you kind of
throw it out the window because this is not the
same team.
Speaker 1: It's completely different.
Speaker 2: Offense was ranked twenty fifth, defense was thirty first. Makes
you wonder how they won four games.
Speaker 1: Your team is that bad offseason moves.
Speaker 2: I mean Geno Smith's now the quarterback, they got a
new coach, they drafted Ashton Johns, yet they added depth
to the secondary.
Speaker 1: I'll go over their schedule, which to me makes it
even more confusing.
Speaker 2: At Patriots home, Chargers at Commanders, Bears at Colts, Titans
at Chiefs than their bye week, Jags at Broncos, Cowboys,
Browns at Chargers, Broncos at Eagles at Texans, Giants, Chiefs.
They're gonna get steamrolled in some games and then they're
gonna win easily against some of them.
Speaker 1: Any opinions on this one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, the schedule isn't awful, right, but one
of the worst parts of the Raiders' schedule is the
fact that they have to play in the AFC West.
And if you remember the hot take that I through
out there on the Kansas City Chiefs, I think this
is going to be incredibly competitive division, largely in part
that this is just the wild card team, so andy
not to not to you know, drag it on out.
But this is why it's as simple to me seven
and a half wins for the Las Vegas Raiders with
a new head coach, with a new quarterback who's going
to heavily rely on a rookie running back who could
be an absolute stub. But it's not like the offensive
line he's going to be running behind is all that terrific.
And factoring in that if you're relying on a rookie
running back, you'd probably want him to have some time
to get his feet underneath him. Right acclimate to the NFL, Well,
the number one worst rest differential is the Las Vegas
Raiders schedule this year. They're going to have a lot
of games with quick turnaround for a team who's trying
to find their identity. You know, I feel like more
time to prepare for a Pete Carroll would be advantageous
for this team. But around seven and a half wins
after winning four line last year and a lot of
those were toss up games, yes, there is reason to
be more optimistic about this Las.
Speaker 1: Vegas Raiders team.
Speaker 3: You can't be any worse optimistic than when you knew
you had a lamb dud head coach. You knew you
didn't really have much of a direction. You know, you
bring in Geno Smith, is that gonna be good? Is
that going to be negative? I mean him and Pete
Carroll had some sauce there. But for me, Andy, this
is one that's so easy to just draw line through.
There's thirty two teams in the NFL. Why are we
trying to prognosticate against a team who we have absolutely
no clue what they're going to look like with a
completely new regime, a completely new look offense, a defense that,
yeah they got Max Crosby, but it's pretty hit or
miss on that back end. So for me, seven and
a half winsoul, I would lean towards the underhandy because
we have to have a pick on this, but this
one's so easy you cross it off. You know nothing
about the Raiders until a couple of weeks in. You
want to hit him on an end season total. That's
the way to bet them. But you're not betting the
race before the season starts. That's just trying to call
a shot and sound like it, sound like you know
what you're talking about when you simply don't.
Speaker 2: I'm the same way. I don't need to drag this out.
I lean to the under, but there's no way I'm
betting this with my own money.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, no way.
Speaker 3: So we can more Preses money, yeah, not even We
wouldn't even bet this one with Preses money.
Speaker 2: No, no. So that's the easy breakdown for the Raiders.
There's way too many other bets on the board. So
all right, Raiders, you're dead to us in terms of betting,
betting for or against you.
Speaker 1: Yep, we're done. We're done.
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk some bakroll management and let's talk
about our record from last week because it relates to
this tax bill. So we had long talk with our
team and how do we kind of combat this tax bill, Well,
you need to hit it a really high percentage. So
we've decided to really lower the volume and really get
super super picky, and that's what we started with last week,
and so we went seven and three. As you can see,
we only had plays in a.
Speaker 1: Few different sports.
Speaker 2: We didn't have very many plays, but the plays that
we did have were great. We had seventy percent of
our bets. That's what we're gonna continue doing, only the
best of the bet only one WNBA play lacrosse three.
We had two crossport parlays, one UFC and three cricket plays.
So arius you asked about the one percent and five percent,
here's how I do it. I recommend flat betting. You're
gonna get much less of a roller coaster ride when
you when you have a huge, big winning week, you're
gonna make a little less, but it really protects you
when you have those really really down weeks. In June
was a terrible month for us. If you were to
followed the percentages, the one percent to five percent, you
would have lost a ton. When you do flat betting,
and what it does that really really you know, it
narrows it out.
Speaker 1: So that's what I prefer.
Speaker 2: I prefer flat betting because I just think me and
my team are gonna have a winning record at the
end of the year. So what I do is every month,
I reset my bankroll and that tells me what a
unit is. So Dan, if we could pull up the
spreadsheet and you'll see June, we took a massive, massive
hit on the bank roll. So you see we were
at sixty seven thousand and one seventy four and uh yeah,
I lost thirty four percent. So that dropped all the
way down to forty four thousand, three thirty four. So
one of the biggest, well money wise, biggest hit, but
percentage wise, yeah, one of the biggest hits that we've had.
So I reset the bankroll and determine what one unit
is and then.
Speaker 1: I bet two percent.
Speaker 2: I think with this lower volume approach, I'm going to
betting a little bit more per play because we are
going to be super selective, so I may bump that
up to three percent. Right now, I'm betting on the
two percent. Some people like betting more per play. Myself,
I just think if it's good enough to bet, it
needs to be the same amount. So areas that is
what I recommend but there are so many different ways
that you can do it. Dan, do you prefer flatt
or do you prefer the different percentages?
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm with you.
Speaker 3: I'm a flat better through and through is simply because
you have to remember that even some of your best
bets at the end of the day that you handicap perfectly,
they're going to lose around half the time. So for me,
that's when I really got in trouble when I first
started betting, was I felt stronger about one other play
than the other, and then the one that I didn't
feel as strong as that's the one who ends up winning.
That's the sport that I go on a winning streak in.
So flat betting for me was the way to do it.
Some people can scale, you know how good they feel
about a play. But the plays that I submit to
you for our lacrosse picks, I submit them and I
let you decide, Hey, how do we scale this one?
Simply because for me, I'm betting one unit and the
only time I'll go up and I'll bet two units
is something that I absolutely love. But Andy, I would
say that's probably I could count on one hand how
many times I do that throughout an entire year of
betting across all the different sports that we bet, and
I've been on it even though I still do it,
you know, wol me once, but but yeah, I'm never
pulling off the rubber band and you know three xing,
four xing, five xing my bat personal.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't do that either.
Speaker 2: I've learned my lesson and really what it does to
protects you in the losing And I always say, hey, listen,
best way to make money is to not lose it.
You have to protect yourself when you have losing weeks
and losing months. It's more important than what you do
when you have a winning because you take massive hits
to the bank roll and all of a sudden you're
not going to have a bankroll.
Speaker 1: So that's how we do it.
Speaker 2: But the one percent to five percent that we use
for on wager talk, it's kind of like confidence if
you will so, But it does differ from handicapper to handicapper.
If you have a specific handicapper, just reach out and
ask them.
Speaker 6: So.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: So the plays that we have this week are in
the Open Championship and in UFC. Those are plays I've
already played with my own money. And also if you
want to join our discord, it's Winning in the Shadows Discord.
I'll put a link in the comment section you go
in there. We have these spreadsheets for free that you
can download. You can track all your plays, you can
track your bank roll.
Speaker 1: That's free to you.
Speaker 2: So I'll put a link in the comment section below,
so you guys can go download that. But if you're
not tracking your plays, if you're not keeping track of
your bank role, you're really doing yourself a disservice. And
it's the best way to learn what's working what's not working.
Speaker 1: So take advantage of that. Those are free tools and
all the instructions in there on how to set up.
Speaker 2: So thanks very much guys for joining us today. I
know there's not a lot of sports going on, not
my opinion. We've got Open Championship, we got UFC plays,
we got NASCAR, we got Korean snail racing. By the way,
post your favorite snail name in the comment section.
Speaker 1: Had some good ones. Snail Bolt that was a good one.
Speaker 2: So post your favorite snail name and we'll pick the
best one and put it on the show tomorrow.
Speaker 1: So make sure you hit the like.
Speaker 2: But to make sure you subscribe to the Way You
Talk channel, help us, help us get to that two
hundred two thousand mark, and join the wager Talk family.
So we'll be back Tomorrow'll start talking UFC, PFL. It's
Dakota ditch of a week those who know, so good luck,
and we're also going to talk to MLB win totals tomorrow.
So lovely, lovely show today, We've got a big one tomorrow.
Thanks for joining us, good luck on your bets and
take care.