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Speaker 1: How many of those bills are going to have to

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be refinanced in addition to deficits of a couple trillion dollars.

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As far as I can see, the current administration says, yeah,

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we've got the deficit from six and a half percent

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to GDP to five point nine percent of GDP, Yet

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it's still two trillion dollars. National debt now has flown

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through thirty eight trillion, is now sitting at thirty eight

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point two trillion as of last week.

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Speaker 2: You were listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network where

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you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else

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to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial

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Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork

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dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial

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Survival Network now more than.

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Speaker 3: Ever, And welcome you are listening to and watching the

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Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Let's. Hey, we

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are in mid November. Year is a rapidly coming to

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a close. Dennis to Bergain is with us and now Dennis,

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great to have you back on. So we're approaching the

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end of the year. When you look back, what do

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you think this year is going to be known for.

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What will we if we even think about twenty twenty five,

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besides the fact that it's a round number, what do

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you think the biggest things this year were?

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Speaker 1: What a good question? Well, thank you for having me on, Carrie.

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Always a pleasure to catch up with you. I think

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that this will be known. You know, the old saying

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is hindsight is twenty twenty So when we look back

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at this year, I think that we're going to see

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that this was the year that the devaluation of fiat

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currency really accelerated. I think that when you look at

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what goal has done, what silver has done this year,

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that's not a reflection of those metals being worth inherently more.

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You can't make more rings out of an ounce of

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gold today than you could twenty years ago. So I

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think that's very indicative of how quickly fiad currencies are

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being devalued. And I think when you look at the numbers,

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that that is a trend that is likely going to accelerate.

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So I think twenty twenty five, looking back in time,

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I think it might be known as the tipping point

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as far as fiat currencies are concerned.

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Speaker 3: So interesting I was analyzing this really in depth. And

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you know, we're both going to Martin Armstrong's conference, the

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World Economic Conference in Orlando. It's this week from the

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twenty first to the twenty third. I urge any of

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you out there who got the money and the ability

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to get to Orlando to go there. What Martin has

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said and why he's been right and everybody else has

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been wrong, is he says the dollar isn't just a

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currency unit. It's a system. It's a system of control,

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a system of financial management, and basically there is no

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substitute for it at this point. And the bricks are

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like a nice distraction, but the bricks will never be

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a substitution for the dollar for the simple reason that

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it's not a question of value. Yes, gold has value,

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always has value. We're both into it. It's a question

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of a system that functions to basically enable trade to

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occur on a global basis and for debts to be

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calculated and paid. For lack of a better term, I mean,

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what's your thought on that, Well, I.

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Speaker 1: Think that I would I would agree certainly that you know,

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the dollar in the swift system is where most global

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trade takes place. I think a couple of developments that,

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maybe to play Devil's advocate for a little bit, I

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think a couple of developments that have happened. One, as

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of I believe August of this year, the number one

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reserve asset as far as central banks are concerned around

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the globe is now gold, no longer the US dollar.

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So I think the move away from the dollar is unmistakable.

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I mean, it's irrefutable. Yet, to use an analogy that

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many people have used before, the dollar is still the

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best house in a bad neighborhood. So I think I

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think that you're you're you're seeing brick. You're seeing countries

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work around the dollar. Not not entirely because the dollar

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is being devalued, but when you look at what the

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United States did when they confiscated Russian assets or froze

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of Russian assets that were denominated in dollars, I think

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it made the rest of the world say, well, wait

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a minute, if they can do it to them, they

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can do it to us too. We need to have

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a plan beat, and I I think at this point

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there are a lot of Plan b's out there. I

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would agree none of them are ready to displace the dollar.

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As the reserve currency. But you're seeing gold, you're seeing silver,

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you know. I think this whole development of the Genius Act,

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where we have stable coins now that have to be

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back to one hundred percent by US treasuries if you're

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issuing your own currency, I think that's a move for

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the United States to create another market for US treasuries.

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Speaker 3: So I think that.

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Speaker 1: Shows some level of desperation. I don't think the dollar

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is ready to be displaced anytime soon, but as I said,

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I think the twenty twenty five maybe that may be

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viewed as the tipping point. And I think at some

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point you're going to see the rest of the world say, well,

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wait a minute, we need to go back to a

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tangible backed currency at commodity back currency.

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Speaker 3: And I think that you're going to see that. Yeah,

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I agree, but these things take time, right, It doesn't

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just happen. And that's why all of the all of

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the dollar is going to fail and all that. Sure,

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they're right, eventually the system is going to collapse, the

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debt it's unsustainable, but it's not going to happen like

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according to anybody's timetable. It's going to happen kind of

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when it happens, right, Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean there's an old cliche that the what is

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easier to predict than to win, and I think that's

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certainly true here. But when you look at, like last week,

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the US Treasury bond auction that took place. Wolf Richter

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just wrote a piece on this, and I think that

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there were six hundred and ninety four billion dollars of bonds, notes,

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and bills sold, with over five hundred billion of them

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sold with maturities of fifty two weeks or less. So

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in that respect, you know, when the United States has

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to go out and finance their debt, they're looking a

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lot like the payday long owned business. Well, we know,

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all loan you money for four weeks, We'll onwn your

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money for fifty two weeks. But that's going to create

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this this whole debt refinancing snowball. That's going to create

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a big problem. So in a year, how many of

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those bills are going to have to be refinanced in

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addition to deficits of a couple of trillion dollars. As

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far as they can see, the current administration says, yeah,

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we've cut the deficit from six and a half percent

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to GDP to five point nine percent of GDP, yet

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it's still two trillion dollars. National debt now has flown

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through thirty eight trillion, is now sitting at thirty eight

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point two trillion as of last week.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so what you have thought about tariffs, I mean,

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like Trump, Trump touched them like they're the key to

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salvation of the country, and I just don't see it

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that way. Yeah, I agree with you. I mean, look,

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I think Trump has a point that one, we don't

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manufacture things here anymore. And I think getting investment in

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the United States to create jobs. You know, if there's

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seventeen trillion dollars in investment, that will be a huge

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boost to GDP. So I think in that sense he

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is right. The problem is you don't build plans, you

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don't make that shift overnight. And certainly we've allowed the

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trade scals to be tipped not in our favor. We've

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allowed you know, other countries to have access to the

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best market in the world without paying an appropriate toll.

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Speaker 1: So I think Trump's right about that. But to say

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that we can run the country on tariff revenue, I

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think is ridiculous when you look at the numbers. What

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do we have three hundred billion dollars potentially in tariff

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revenue this year two trillion dollar deficit. That's like using

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a garden hose on a forest fire. I mean, you might,

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it might make an impact for a minute, but you're

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going to lose the war. So I just don't see

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that as being a solution to the problem.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well that's his story, any sticking to it, right.

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Speaker 1: So thank Carrie too. I mean, you look at this,

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this idea now of a tariff dividend where all but

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the highest earners in the US might get a check

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for a couple thousand dollars. That just I that's just

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another way of saying we're going to drop some more

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stimulus because we don't like what the economy is doing.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's that. I wish I would just be honest

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about what they're doing here, you.

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Speaker 1: Know, no exactly. I mean, okay, a tariff dividend, whatever

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you call it, it's stimulus.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's pump priming, right, it's a printing money. And

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one of the things Martin Armstrong says is that the

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lower interest rates are actually a bad sign for the

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economy because it means that demand for capital isn't there.

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And you know, I think he's got a point there.

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Speaker 1: Well, and you know, look at what Trump proposed just recently,

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and it was confirmed by Bill Poulty. The fact that

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now they're looking at putting together a fifty year home mortgage,

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that that just screams desperation has to let's get this

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housing market going again.

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Speaker 3: And what about the Trump's idea of printing a five

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hundred dollars bill.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I I think a five hundred dollars

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bill may become a necessity if we continue to devalue.

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I mean, we might why stop there, we might, Well,

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maybe we should resurrected ten thousand dollars bill. I think

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that had Woodrow Wilson.

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Speaker 3: Hot Hey, like basically, you know, like the Zimbabwe you know,

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one hundred trillion dollar banknote there, right.

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Speaker 1: I had the same note framed in my office.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Right, So if that's the solution, then it's it's

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really a pretty easy solution, painless, right, absolutely.

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Speaker 1: And isn't it Zimbabwe that had signs on the porta

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John's not to use Zimbabwe notes as toilet paper because

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it clogged the systems.

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Speaker 3: I never heard that, but I'll leave it to be

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so I.

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Speaker 1: Have a picture somewhere of that very sign.

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Speaker 3: I love it. Well, that's the turn of the wheelbarrow

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full of marks during the German hyper inflation, and the guy

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went in to see if they would take the Marx

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and when he came out he found the marks on

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the ground and the wheelbarrow was stolen.

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Speaker 1: Right, yeah, you know, this is what's the old saying,

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same song, different verse. You go back to the Roman Empire,

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to Weimar Germany, to John Laws France in the early

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seventeen hundreds. I mean, there is one historical instance after

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another that we've seen this cycle of currency creation followed

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by a prosperity illusion, followed by painful inflation followed by deflation.

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In real terms, this is nothing new.

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Speaker 3: Now, there's nothing new under the sun, as Virgil said,

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and that was said two thousand years ago. So the

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question is now, are we all reduced to just buying

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gold and silver and bitcoin or well, well, I certainly

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think that that's probably a pretty good idea for you know,

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a good share of your portfolio.

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Speaker 1: When you look at US government finances, just transfer payments.

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Now I have hit five trillion dollars annually, So that's Medicare, Medicaid,

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Social Security SNAP, and unemployment benefits. Four point nine to

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nine trillion was the last number that I saw. Interest

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on the debt is one point two trillion, So that's

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six point two trillion dollars. And Carrie, I grew up

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when I learned math from flash cards and wooden rulers

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in school, So I'm giving away my age a little

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bit here. But that's a nine billion dollar deficit before

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we ever get to spending money on the military and

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everything else the government spends money on. This cannot be fixed,

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so devaluation has to continue. So yeah, I think tangible

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assets are certainly something that every viewer or listener should

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be considering very seriously.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so what do you buy? Gold, silver, both bitcoin?

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Speaker 1: What do you do you know? I have been just

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true confessions here. I was late to the crypto party.

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I have been more of a gold and silver advocate.

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I would still say that I'm more of a gold

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and silver advocate. At the beginning of this year, I

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recommended to clients that they wait heavily towards silver just

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because the gold silver ratio got to one hundred and fourteen.

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It was an all time high. So that was a

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kind of a no brainer recommendation. Now that we have

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the gold silver ratio back around eighty, I'm a bit

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more of an advocate of an equal waiting. I think

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you want to own some gold, and I think you

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want to own some silver, And I think you know,

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by all all research that I have done, I think

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this party is just getting started.

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Speaker 3: I think they go much higher. Couldn't agree with you more,

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could not agree with you more. But one of the

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things Martin Armstrong said is the stock market's going to

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keep going up. He's saying now sixty two thousand and

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sixty five thousand by twenty thirty two, and that's when

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he kind of sees the great changes taking place here.

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Speaker 1: What are you thinking, Well, first of all, whenever I

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get a chance to talk to Martin Armstrong, which is

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not as frequently as you, I ask questions and take notes.

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So I certainly wouldn't guess Martin Armstrong. I would say, though,

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that stocks will be higher in nominal terms, probably not

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real terms. So let me just give an example. If

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we go back to gold as being money for most

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of history. I have an example that I use in

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one of the talks that I give that if you

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go back to twenty twenty five years ago, the S

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and P five hundred divided by the price of gold

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per ounce was about five The S and P five

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hundred was about twenty seven hundred. Gold was a little

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over five hundred dollars an ounce, So if you take

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twenty seven hundred divided by five hundred, it's a little

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more than five ounces of gold to buy the S

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and P five hundred. Today you've got the S and

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P at about sixty six sixty seven sixty eight hundred

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golds at four thousand. Now you can buy the entire

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S and P five hundred for one and a half

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ounces of gold. So, in real terms, stocks are down.

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In nominal terms, priced in US dollars, stocks are up.

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So I think again we're seeing deflation currently in real terms,

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but in nominal terms. Yeah, I think Martin's probably right.

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In fact, depending on how much the dollars devalued, I

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think it could go much much higher.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. So, and he's been right all long too. This

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isn't like a new forecast. It's in the it's in

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this book that I just wrote, the Armstrong Economic Code

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that looks looking well.

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Speaker 1: And Gary, let me congratulate you on having a number

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one Amazon bestseller there.

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Speaker 3: I appreciate that, Dennis, And yeah, it's a it's a

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real charge, And I feel like I'm doing something useful interpreting,

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passing through Martin's words through not a filter, but a mirror,

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an amplifier, so the average person can understand what he's saying,

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because I think it's really important, especially based on what

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we've been talking about, that you understand the gravity of

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the situation and the trends where it's inevitably all heading.

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So You've got a book coming out pretty soon yourself right.

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Speaker 1: As called Portfolio Playbook, and it's investing strategies for the

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current economy.

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Speaker 3: I think that the.

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Speaker 1: Theme of the book is that you really don't want

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to buy and hold in this environment. There are many

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advisors that are I call them Wall Street advisors that

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advocate a sixty forty portfolio of sixty percent in stocks

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forty percent in bonds, and I think that investors moving

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ahead are going to have to take more of a

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targeted approach to be effective. I think a broad market

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approach will fail people just you know, we started this

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conversation by talking about twenty twenty five what will it

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be known for. The Other thing I think it'll be

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known for is the year that AI drove the market,

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the stock market. This has not been a broad stock

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market rally. Sixty to eighty percent of this upside, depending

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on how you want to measure it. In this market,

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sixty to eighty percent of the rally, I should say

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is attributed to AI stock. So I think we've got

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a big AI bubble here. I think AI is a

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technology that's going to be here for a long time,

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just like dot Com was. I'm old enough to remember

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nineteen ninety nine and two thousand. I'm old enough to

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remember when pets dot Com was a company that isn't more.

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And I think we're to see AI companies. I mean,

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take take a look at open Ai. Sarah Fryar, the CFO,

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and within the last couple of weeks, came out and

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said directly and then indirectly that the government may have

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to backstop the loans that they need to pull from

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investors to continue to keep that company viable. Here's a

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company with thirteen billion dollars in revenues and one point

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four trillion dollars in commitments. The math does not work.

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Speaker 3: So you think they're trying to say they're too big

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to fail.

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Speaker 1: I think that's exactly what they're trying to trying to

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get across. And Sam Alton and the CEO came out

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and said that, you know, however government wants to be involved,

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that's up to government. But he didn't pooh pooh the

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idea of you know, government guarantees. And there's this whole

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concern by many in that community that we have to

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you know, win the AI race with China. So I

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think that that's probably a story we're going to see

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continue to develop and continue to rear its head as

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time goes on.

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Speaker 3: This is exactly like spot Mick. You know, there was

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never a space race with Russia. It was strictly in

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the minds it was a SiO. You know, it was

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just one big SiO. Same exact thing here with AI.

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I'm not buying any of this AI space race nonsense.

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Been fooled once, I'm not getting fooled again. Dennis.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's an interesting perspective I hadn't thought about,

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but I would agree.

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Speaker 3: With that, Yeah, because it's already been one. You know,

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the whole government is being run by AI now, not

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where I call it Trump GPT. It's not like Trump

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just says, what's the AI say and does it. No,

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It's what happens is they actually wargame every situation through

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the AI and try to get a broader perspective, better strategy,

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and in a lot of respects it's worked. The only

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thing they haven't been able to figure out what to

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do with Trump GPT is kind of lost, that is,

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is the deficit. Nobody knows what to do with that.

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But you know, I read a little satire that the

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bureaucrats and the unions their last, their last bastion to

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protect their government granted monopolies. They're using Kafka GPT, which

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it's been has been trained on one hundred years of

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DMV customer service loops and you know, and strikes and

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all that. But basically they've lost, and you know, we're

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just going to have to get used to it. The

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only the last remaining place where AI really hasn't grabbed

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hold yet that we can see the legal system.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think that day is coming. I

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mean when you look at a lot of well look

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at what Amazon just came out and said. I mean,

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they're they're anticipating by twenty thirty three up to six

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hundred thousand job cuts. That's crazy. Look at the job

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cuts we've already seen this year as a result of AYOT.

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So hopefully it's like the Industrial Revolution, you know, we

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make advances in one area and it creates higher paying,

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higher skill jobs in another area. But I'm not convinced,

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and I'm certainly not an expert in that area.

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Speaker 3: I don't believe it's at all possible. I do agree

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with you. Like thirty thousand less jobs in Amazon, I

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think that's directly attributable to AI all these other tech platforms,

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and it's only the beginning.

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Speaker 1: You know, a.

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Speaker 3: Company like Alphabet Google is.

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Speaker 1: Run by AI literally yeah, and in Microsoft, and I

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mean I know people at all these companies, and AI

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is playing a bigger and bigger role in the day

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to day management and administration of the company.

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Speaker 3: Totally, all right, Dennis, appreciate your coming on. Best place

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to find you is still Dennisthubergen dot com. Right, perfect,

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all right, that's DNS, d N I S T U

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B B E r g E N dot com. The

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links in the show notes of this interview on Financial

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Survival Network dot com appreciate your coming by. We'll see

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you up in Orlando and safe travels.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for having me and I will look forward to

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catching up with you in Orlando.

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Speaker 3: Take care.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your

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00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:48,799
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to

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00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:54,599
Financial Survival Network dot com. Financial Survival Network now more

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