Speaker 1: Let's go across the financial world in just under an
hour with Zach Abraham, Tim Cook on Tariff's Black Rock CEO.
Larry Fink, now a co lead at the World Economic Forum,
has a plan and a real estate company with private
equity is now going to lower your cost for housing.
You think there's a catch to that, of course there is.
And then this one hundred thousand dollars payment to be
an h one B visa an each application. We'll talk
about this with the help of Zach Abraham, chief Investment
Officer of Bulbart Capital Management, and through the great graces
of God Almighty.
Speaker 2: But Todd Herman show is one hundred percent disapproved. But
big pharma technocurrats in tyrans everywhere from the high mountains
of Free America. Here's the Emerald City exile Todd Herman.
Speaker 1: Today is the day the Lord has made, and these
are the times so which God has decided we shall
live in. Joining me, Chief Investment Officer Bulvar Capital Management,
Zach Abraham, Zach, welcome back to the program.
Speaker 3: Well, it's good to be back, and it's casual day.
The golf hat I see that in the T shirt. Yeah, yeah,
Well I'm traveling later today, and you know, I just
play a little casual.
Speaker 1: Did you ever did you ever dress up for airplanes?
Were ever have that generation where it used to.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, we had to Oh really yeah when I
was a kid. Oh yeah, my parents. No, no, we're not
wearing that on an air.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 3: Yeah. It's still it's still kind of throws me off.
I still. I just just in the last few years,
I've gotten the place where I can get on an
airplane with like jim shorts and a T shirt. Yeah,
you know, but it took me a long time just
because of that. You know, it used to be you
got dressed up to go on the airplane.
Speaker 1: I can't do the shorts thing because there's that embarrassing
moment where on on like if you're in first class
at Alaska, where you sit up in your your the
back of the like stick and they make that oh
yeah it's sound when they're getting up. I don't like that.
And I had a discussion with the guy one day.
We're flying and and people a boarding and he looked
at you and huh, I go, what he goes? I
think we hit bottom? I go, what he goes? That's
two men in pajamas there were yeah, adult men and
and I'm talking about onesies and right, No, that's that's
that's a level too far.
Speaker 3: No, no, no, yeah, yeah, I mean you can go nice clean,
fitness type relax clothes that but that's his that is
as relaxed as it gets, right like you. No, no,
you can't be sporting pajamas.
Speaker 1: Okay, so now what about barefoot?
Speaker 3: No, absolutely not.
Speaker 1: He's never done. You've never liked, You've never seen some
of that. I saw a guy take the shoes and
socks off. I've seen the shoes come off, but the
socks come off.
Speaker 3: He's he's the guy. That's that's an animal. Yeah, you
can't do and here's and and and it's not just
about you, right like who obviously, Yeah, I'm stuck next
to you. I don't want to smell your barking dogs,
like keep your socks on, brother, you know, right, I
mean yeah, but I'm kind of weird. I'm I'm I'm
like my wife would tell you, like, I'm a big
manners guy, like I just you gotta you gotta take
care of your own business. I don't I don't want to,
you know you know what I mean? Nothing involving your
own hygiene. I don't want to discuss it. I don't
want to see it. You know, just keep on the
night in your.
Speaker 1: Okay, I'll say one thing about this and then we
can stop. I was sitting in the VIP lounge and
a guy went to pick in his toenails.
Speaker 3: No, come on, yeah, I leave the lounge. I couldn't
stay there.
Speaker 1: He actually got approached to the credit of Alaska Airlines.
Someone actually did come by and they spoke with him
softly and quietly, and uh, he was. He was kind
of upset that he didn't get there, but he had
some bad fungus. So when you got the bad fungus,
now see. I once met a famous person, very very famous,
an actor in the Simpsons, responsible for a whole bunch
of their voices. And he was super cool. Let me
come to his house. He had two houses connected to
each other right on the Santa Monica Pio and I'm
talking about directly across from the lifeguard station. You walk
across the street, that's Santa Monica Beach. And he was yeah,
and he was late getting there, and the one of
his house keepers was kind of to give me fresh
squeeze orange juice. I'm waiting for him, and he comes
in in a robe, having swum, picks up his foot
and begins to pick three inch thick toe fungus from
his toenails. And now, mind you, we're sitting in twenty
million dollars thirty million dollars of real estate twenty five
years ago, and.
Speaker 3: My class man, dude, you could walk up the street.
Speaker 1: The toefogus stuff is six bucks. You're a billionaire. You
have a sound recording studio in both of your houses,
and there's a bridge that connects him and you. You
take an elevator to work because you won't walk the steps.
You can't afford toe fungus stuff. Yes, I'm sorry, I
got off an attention.
Speaker 3: Let's start this all against me.
Speaker 1: Let's start this all again, joining me live now talk
to financial stuff, Zach Abertine, Chief investment Officer, bull Or
Capital managiner, Zach. Let's get into this thing with Tim
Cook and tariffs in just a second. Now that I've
done talk dirty stuff, let me just say this, Alan Soaps,
Allen Soaps dot com, slash Todd does that count? That's
all we need? Well, because you're gonna want to wash
your mind at least. This is soap that's made in America.
It's all natural and man, you're supporting the very, very
very best cause. Right now. Alan works there. He's fourteen,
he's been through eighteen operations. He's effectively nonverbal because of autism.
His art is his soap. And this has been a
love affair, a family affair, his dad, him his brother Ian,
his dad is going to the Lord's Truly, John is
probably six eight months maybe a year to live. He's
handing the company off to his wife so it can
continue to hire people like Alan and continue to have
the world's best So go to Allen Soaps dot com
slash todd. He's promo code to get promo code Todd
to get temper sent off all their products. I don't
know that they guarantee no toe fungus, uh, but they should.
And if you have the toe fungus, it'll be good
smelling to focus. Alan soap dot Com slash Todd. So Zach,
here's Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, and he's talking about
President Trump's tariffs. It looks like he's got red pilled. Man.
He's all mega tell me the.
Speaker 3: Reviews over and over again. There's always this caveat that
they're expensive, and yet I see the training value to
be far higher than I remember. Is trading better, And
when you add in the incentives from the phone companies,
I don't see any increase even from tariffs.
Speaker 1: Trading is great.
Speaker 4: There's no increase for tariffs in the in the prices
to be totally clear. And you can get a phone
for free today with a plan from from your favorite carre.
Speaker 1: Now, wait, Zach, did you hear that free phones? They
don't cost a sinking thing, and the tariffs aren't affecting
the prices. And there's Jimmy Creme. Sorry he lost me
when he said the phones are free. Now I don't
believe him on tariffs.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I mean right, they just build it in
the price of your plan, right, I mean, it's not
hard to see. And I'm just laughing at how I
swear to God, Tim Cook must try to play Jim
Kramer to deploy his stock. I no, no, I and
I could be horribly wrong. And this is an investment
advice to anybody out there. I just think Apple is
one of the most ridiculously overpriced stocks out there, like
and you can find stocks that are a lot more expensive.
That look a lot worse. But I just don't think
people have realized the scale of all this.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 3: So you know Apple does about four hundred billion in
revenue a year yep, all right, and and about eighty
five to ninety billion of that's profit, all right, So
they're approaching a four trillion dollar market cap, all right.
So for that stock to go up ten percent, that's
an increase of the company's value of one hundred percent
of their annual revenue. Right. So, and this is a
company that's growing at six percent, right.
Speaker 1: So that that look possibly the math isn't math.
Speaker 3: Right, And remember they're also losing market share on their
bell weather product, the iPhone, right, So you you're looking
at it and going, but it's free. If you're investing
in this stock, it forty times earnings and it's growing
at six percent a year, one of a couple things
must be true. You must think that there's a massive
earnings inflection that's coming from a company who's major product
that makes up probably eighty percent of their revenue. Maybe
more right, that that product is losing market share and
you're projecting a giant growth, and what would that growth
have to be? Remember for them to double their revenue. Right,
that would equal, you know, doubling every The numbers have
gotten so large that you know, if you think you're
buying a stock, and I have to for me to
buy a stock, I have to believe that that stock
has the ability to gain more than eleven percent a year,
basically the long term average of the stock market. Right
for me to purchase an individual stock, that's interesting.
Speaker 1: You have to the individual stock beats the market.
Speaker 3: Right. And when I'm looking at Apple at this valuation,
now i could be wrong. I've been wrong before, I'll
be wrong again. But when I'm looking at Apple at
this price, I'm scratching my head, going, I don't know
how anybody thinks this thing is going to grow again? Right?
A ten percent move in the stock is the equivalent
of one hundred percent of their annual revenue. Right, So
you're just like, so, are you buying the stock because
you think it's going to double in the next six years?
What would Apple have to release just to double their
revenue in the next six years? Not let alone the
stock price, but double the revenue. Right, And even if
they doubled the revenue at this price, at the stock price,
even after they doubled the revenue, assuming their margins didn't slip.
You're talking about a company that's still trading it twenty
times earnings, and it's currently growing at six percent. So
you can't even extrapolate that out and say they're gonna
double their revenue in six years, because at this rate,
they won't double their revenue for ten. This they can
continue growing, but they're losing market share.
Speaker 1: Okay, So forgive me because I still I still want
to try to scrape some sense out of this, and
I'm sorry to think, oh, we should be short in
the heck out of Apple. We should just short short,
short Apple. But no, because no one's gonna let Apple fall.
There you talk about banks too big to fail. Do
we think the government would let Apple fall?
Speaker 3: No, And this is why we did short it earlier
this year. Last year, we shorted it from about two sixty,
and then we covered that short at one ninety, even
though we believed it was overpriced at one ninety. Why
did we do it because for a couple other reasons,
but primarily what you just said, meaning meaning we didn't
believe that the market had suddenly started getting more efficient
and more rational, and we were sitting there going, you know,
until we're convinced that this bubble mania insanity is over,
We're going to take that win. Should Apple continue to
go down? Yeah, it's true. But but then again, I
can't sit there and tell you there's so much of
this like you know, you saw the other day China.
China announced the other day that they're no longer going
to accept and they don't need in Vidia's chip. Okay,
now that's big. Yeah, Now, in Vidia announced a deal
with open Ai the day after China made that announcement.
In the combination of those two days, I think the
stock was up three and a half percent, and it
doesn't sound like a big deal. But again, we're talking
about a four trillion dollar company. Okay, so what is
three and a half percent of four trillion dollars? About
one hundred and twenty billion dollars so so, and remember
in Vidia did about one hundred billion in profit. So basically,
their stock went up more than one or more than
two x their profit over the course of a two
day span in which China, who currently YEW conservative estimates,
We believe that China is currently it's hard to track
because a lot of their chips flow through Singapore, right,
but we think that they probably make up about thirty
percent in video's demand. They announced that they're going to
invest one hundred billion, So they announced that, So China
announces they're not going to take any more in video chips.
The next day, in Video announces one hundred billion dollar
investment in open Ai. Now to explain that open Ai
in video deal, the best explanation I saw was like
a power strip, you know where you can plug all
the power cords in. Yeah, right, But instead of the
power strip being plugged into the wall, it was plugged
into itself. Yes, okay, And and here's why they're investing
one hundred billion in open Ai. And open Ai is
going to use those funds to buy one hundred billion
dollars worth of chips from.
Speaker 1: Vision Revenue Trading.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's like now, isn't it interesting?
Speaker 2: Though?
Speaker 3: And now again I'm not telling anybody to sell in
video to shortened video to buy. This is not a recommendation.
I'm simply pointing things out here. What I think is
fascinating is that that open Ai deal, which is a joke,
got announced the day after In it was announced that
it China wasn't going to buy any more of their chips.
You know what? All this screams to me. This screams
to me that the internal demand for their chips is
falling faster than they thought it was, and that they're
not going to be able to meet revenue guides. And
the reason why I said that is they remember doing
that deal with open an Ai. That's a margin compression deal,
meaning the very nature of that, right, they're having the fund.
If you're in Vidia and you have endless demand for
all these chips, why are you funding somebody one hundred
billions so they can buyers? Okay, Now, if you think
thirty percent of your sales are about to fall off
because China no longer wants your chips, then that makes
a lot of sense.
Speaker 1: Right, Right, You're rich in monies that are on this
insanely overvalued stock. They know it's overvalued. They know that
they have been the recipients of good buzz and good
good stock pumping from whoever. And maybe it's all just
organic belief and that you've said they're a great company
and they've got great product, but they have to know
that they're doing here is trying to hide in their
books a coming revenue loss by trading revenue. And this
happened back in the dot com era. People do this
to you all the time.
Speaker 5: You'd sign a deal, you know what, it're reminded me
of it reminding you so many of those Time Warner
deals right right with the with the cable right, Oh,
there's never gonna the demand is would be endless for
this fiber, and here's what it's worth, and we're doing
this deal, and all those revenue swapping deals back then.
Speaker 3: Well when look, it's not saying that in video is
not going bro not saying that. I don't think that.
I don't think it's even close upon. It's nothing like that.
What it is saying, though, is the reason that a
four trillion dollar company is trading at nearly sixty times earnings,
which is insane, right, there's nothing to comp it to
in history. Now, they've done incredible things, So I'm not
saying that they don't deserve a lofty valuation. They certainly do.
But the reason it's trading at that multiple is because
people believe this never ending demand story and the revenue story, right,
and if that revenue story caves even a little bit,
which I don't know how it does. Because here's the
flip side. The reason China doesn't need in video chips
is because it's got a replacement right like period, so
that that replacement China will begin selling to other people.
I'm just looking at this whole thing and going I
could be wrong, but what this looks like to me
is a company that is it's not going to go
through a hard time, but it's revenues are going to
miss because China isn't buying. And when you announce a
revenue miss trading an evaluation like that, your stock's going
to get smoked. So you know when I'm talking thirty
thirty easy if go ahead, well, I mean if if
you wiped off even twenty percent of expected revenue over
the next four years off their books, yeah, the stock
had drop forty percent at least.
Speaker 1: And again you're being very careful to say this is
not investment advice. You're not telling you know what to do.
But again, looking at this, then could it be reasonable
that someone might want to take a short position against Nvidia. No, okay,
it could not be reasonable.
Speaker 3: And I will not and I will not disclose whether
we have.
Speaker 1: Sir, I will not dignify that question with a response,
I'm so yeah.
Speaker 3: I listen and listen to. The One thing I want
to say, though, is like, even if I was to
tell you we were short the company, that doesn't mean
you should. We've got traders watching it twenty four hours
a day. We've got tight stops. When we short something,
we don't let it beat us bad. Right, if it
doesn't go our way in the first two or three percent,
we're out.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Plus I like the bugs in their office and
all the listening differences.
Speaker 3: No, I'm worried. Hey, look, if there's bugging going on,
it's my offer. I'm certainly not bugging anybody else's or
have the clout to.
Speaker 1: Oh, I got to tell you this story. I was.
You know, this is kind of kind of freak you out,
and so I should just tell you gently. I was
in a gym. Weird. Yeah, there's a guy who came
into the gym and this is you've seen these stories.
I've been in this story. I weighed almost like four
pounds three eighty going back to the gym, there is
that Man, I don't know what people are going to
think of me. These sweats are awfully big, and I
want to wear this thick T shirts and sweatshirt. I
don't want to be seen. And there's a guy that's
coming to the gym and he has his behavior and
I finally got to talking with him, and he man,
he went through the roughest of russ fresh, lost his wife,
lost his daughter, lost his brother. Three year stretch and
I'm talking one after each and he said, man, I
just let myself go. But here's what he's discovering. He's
discovering joint pain beyond belief. He's discovering that he gets
sick constantly, and he's discovering that he just cannot seem
to have any energy level in the gym. So I've
talked him about a bunch of things because he asked,
I didn't you go out and push this? But it
turns out that one of the things people have done
to themselves is we've given ourselves what I would refer
to as sugar sickness now diabetes right type two diabetes.
It manifests that way, but the amount of information floating
around our blos boodstream can be responsible for things like
carpal tunnel arthritis type feelings, sometimes arthritis itself. They can
be responsible for all the joint pain and man, it
can tank your metabolism. When I learned after our free
live webinar from Renewed Healthcare that they have actually reset
people's immune systems. You're talking about destroying inflammation sometimes system wide.
What that can do for your intestines and taking the
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I mean, it's fluid, et cetera. A lot of this
from long COVID long shot stuff. If you're in this bag,
you're going to hear from doctors here, well this and
that a suppressant and a blood thinner. Then because we
give you this blood thinner, we're going to need to
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Or you can go to a website. It's not dot com,
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I want to I want to go do the
inflammation thing. Man, it's funny. How uh And and you
you're sponsored by them, I'm not yeah, you know, I'm
just giving you the straight the straights focus on not well, No,
I mean I'm just saying, look, you're like one of
those evil capitalists.
Speaker 2: Man.
Speaker 3: You have you have, you have mal intent. You're not
trying to make money. To make money, so no, but uh,
it's been weird man. My Uh, it's happening slowly, but
my like things are changing, Like my knee has not
hurt in so long, and this time you.
Speaker 1: Went there with me less than six months ago.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm getting in. I'm getting into different positions and
postures that I that that feel foreign, but like it's
like they're like my structure is changing. It's it's really crazy,
like I can sit for longer periods of time and
not hurt. And it's not it's not treating the pain,
it's the stuff is getting better. You know what I mean.
Speaker 1: Oh, I know I talked to you about my back
and my back stability, and my back doesn't click and
it doesn't shift anymore. And that's because I know you
know my vertebra and gosh, that whole complex is rebuilt
because now the tissue has been rebuilt as much as
gonna happen. And man, to not click and to not
get out of bed, I don't know about you, but
at my age, you get out of bed and sometimes
this leg is fifteen feet longer. It doesn't happen to
me anymore.
Speaker 3: Get out of the car, the gas. Sometimes I feel
like I got shot, right, So it's hobbling around the
car trying to get things to warm up.
Speaker 1: I totally get that. So waking up and then you
wake up and put your ankles clicking.
Speaker 5: What the heck?
Speaker 1: Bankle didn't click yesterday? So that's that's not happened to
me since I went down there. List all right, this
is one of your favorite friends. And I know you guys.
Is he there, Larry Fink? When check and see?
Speaker 3: Oh no, I'm meeting him down I'm definite trapping. We're
hooking up to play some golf.
Speaker 1: So do see if people play golf for him? He
just actually playing the golf, right, you just sick? Probably yes,
my club right, See, I'm awfully tired, right, I'm very important.
So he's now the co head of the World Economic Forum,
and that is terrible news for the whole world. This
is subtle, it's a little bit long, but let's watch this.
Listen to it, because this is him talking about an
un unprecedented level of access and influence over the highest
levels of governments, even before they take power.
Speaker 6: I mean, there are a lot they talk to a
lot of people, but I but I do believe because
of the business model of who and what we are
our reach. We're heavily involved in most countries retirement. Whether
it's in Mexico, we're the largest third non Mexican non
A Foray retirement manager. We're the largest retirement manager non
Japanese in Japan. You know, we're the largest retirement manager
in the UK including the domestics, and so having that position,
it's all about long term issues, but it's it's things
that you can't replicate because it's based on years of
relationships and trust and you know whether it is and
then I do go out of my way when there's
somebody who's new in their role, a new prime minister,
you know, I will spend time. Generally, when I try
to do is spend time before before they win and
meet the candidate. So whether it's in Mexico spending time
with Claudia before she won, or spending time with kiro Starma,
you know, it's just spending time with them and just saying,
you know, you have access to whatever information you need and.
Speaker 1: Okay, Zach, what's the subtext to this? Because I don't
I don't, I don't operate in that realm. What's the subtext?
Speaker 3: Conflict of interest? It's why. It's why too big to fail,
a hass is too big to work, right, Like, meaning
there's so there, there's kind of this weird dichotomy where
part of you, when you look at the scope and
the size of black Rock, it makes perfect sense that
he's having these conversations with these people, right, But the
reason he's having conversations with these people is not because like,
do you think he's meeting with Claudia's Shinbaum to explain
to her the etfsiterre and he the state employees' pension plan.
Speaker 1: I'm guessing not. No, I mean, come on, I guess
I'm guessing he's meeting with her to say, here's how
I can personally enrich you.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and this is how you can enrich me, and
this is how we can all win. And if we
have to do it with some dirty cartel money, we
can help you with that. I look, I don't want
to accuse people of anything because I don't know what
they're doing. I'm just saying, you know, it's sort of
like the movie you never see the movie The Devil's
Advocate with Keanu Reeves.
Speaker 1: Yes, he's a lawyer for the Devil.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I think that kind of gives a good insight,
which is, you know, to play at those levels in
that game. I don't think you can be a good
human being, right like you just I don't think you can.
I just I don't think that that's the way it works.
And the reason why I say that is because if
you're not willing to do that untoward thing to get
access to power, your competition is right like it just
and and and that's the game you're playing. You're not
sitting in front of people talking about their retirement plan
and how you're going to manage their portfolio. You're meeting
with heads of state trying to figure out how you
can enrich each other. That's what you're doing.
Speaker 1: And that's that's a realm that God blessed most people.
And I mean it, you're blessed if you've never been
in this realm, all the bribes, all the stuff.
Speaker 2: Like.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm talking about when I had Microsoft money,
being offered a night with two Playboy playmates just for
having a deal, just offering him a deal with Microsoft,
and I said, I'm married, I love my wife. Can't
possibly do that. Oh we didn't mean that, No, you did.
That's exactly what you meant in DC the million dollar
bribe or this, like when that congressman's son wanted to
charge US five million dollars to build a half million
dollar website, and all I could have done, Like when
the congressman had his chief of staff called me into
the official office, the big, you know, huge high vaulted
ceiling office. I could have said, you know, Congressman, I
want to I want to work with your son. He's
a really great guy. Five million is a lot. Could
we do it for a million? That would be twice
the market rate? And I would have come out of
there and it would have been, Hey, if you ever
need access to the Armed Services Committee, you know there's
some things they can do. You're a good guy, Todd.
I appreciate you, you know, kind of bringing a sense
of reality to this. And and did you mention a
consulting contract for my son?
Speaker 6: Oh?
Speaker 1: Yes, I did, forget that, right, Yep, there's that. There's
a million dollar consulting contract. You're a good guy, Todd.
And I guarantee Zach. Then it would have been a Congressman,
I'm going to be leaving the committee, and Todd, how
can I help you yep, who could have introduce you
to And that's true. People are willing to do these things.
And I would think, and I, like you, I don't
want to bear false witness. I would think that there's
no thing that can be done that Larry Fink hasn't done.
Speaker 3: I again, I look, anything's possible. And I don't know him, right,
but knowing the way those circles work and knowing people
that swim in those circles, it would it defies logic
because to be in that like it's it's to be
in that position, you have to think about what you
had to do to be in that position, right to
to climb to the top of that barrel. I mean,
that's that's a nasty barrel, right, Like, So you had
to be kind of the boss of bosses. You had
to be like the crime you know what I'm saying.
Like you had to be the ultimate villain in a
lot of ways.
Speaker 2: I was.
Speaker 3: And it's it's just dirty, man, It's just it's really
really dirty. And I just I don't think you can
be in a position like that without being dirty.
Speaker 2: I don't.
Speaker 3: I don't think it's possible.
Speaker 1: As one person removed from this conversation told to me
right after it happened by a guy that has proven
himself in my life to be very, very truthful. There
was a political actor in DC who is basically getting
run out of town. He was no longer going to
head this great, big committee, and so behind closed doors
he talked to people who wanted to be a successor,
and one on one and the conversations not like this,
what are you offering me? And one lady said, look,
I don't have a lot of money. I mean, I'll
do a great job. I'll give you a credit. Not interested.
Ya la la la la la la la la la la.
I mean what do you want? You want my four
to one K? How much is in it? Because that's
a good start. Yeah, yeah, yeah, And there are people
who would do this. I had a meeting with a
guy who is one of the most wealthy guys in
the world, connected to one of the big software companies
at a super high level, connected to the beers at
a super high level. He took me out to dinner
at this amazing place, this amazing restaurant. They cooked this
stuff at your table. How do you want your steak?
Blah blah, And we talked about the R and C
voter database, and he was talking to me about all
the names, all the data, how far back does it go,
societal change, societal shift, global shifting, how it could be
applied to this. And at the end of the day,
I said, are you interested in making a donation to
the party? And he told people through channels. I didn't
have a strategic bone in my body. I told people
through channels, never let that guy near the data, because
he does exactly what he could do this in order
to take apart the committee and split the world. And
he wants to own this and then sell it. He
wants to steal in part and prove it and then
run it back to us. But I didn't have a
strategic pone in my body. What he meant was I
didn't jump into bed with him right on the first date.
So okay, I'm glad that we agree on that. Now
this isn't the shifting of gears. This is going from
he's in third gear, suggestive, we're gonna shift into fourth
gear here with something going on in private equity and
real estate. And I play this for you in a second, Zach,
and this guy's this is so important to listen to
I've been telling people, don't be the guy that trains
for Let's say you train to run let's say a
five k Okay, and you run that five k and
you find out that you cannot complete the last twenty
percent of it. You can't and that you tank. You
don't just redline, you stop. How would that happen? Well,
you wouldn't have run a ten k, you wouldn't have
run a five k up a hill. You wouldn't have
had sprint practice, you wouldn't have had pacing practice. And
a five k is not a long race. Guys, I
mean you could better apply this to a marathon or
a half marathon. Don't be the guy that gets to
the last mile of the half marathon and you cannot move.
And here's what I mean. Do not get to the
most crucial point of a business, which is where you've
been handed as summons. And the summons is because there's
a belligerate employee, a belligerent competitor. There was a slip
and fall, God forbid, there was a terrible fire, there
was something bad that happened. Don't wait for them to
find out that you do not have the corporate veil
like in that half marathon. Don't wait to the last
mile to find out you can't do it, because it's
not at that point where you want your lawyer to say, hey,
I'm sorry, I can't help you. We can't build the
corporate veil. Now, yes, this person can go after your
four to one K, he can go after your wife's assets,
he can go after anything you own. It's not just
your business. Everything's in play. You better settle, even if
it's junk. Here's how to avoid this. Go find out
if you have the corporate veil. Here's a website. It
is go bisible dot com. Go bisible dot com with
a Z go bisible dot com number one. It's a free,
no obligation consultation. The answer is free. Yes you have it,
No you don't. Your decision at that point end is
to put it off and go get a lawyer to
look at it, or pay Bisible a comparatively very small
amount of money. They will solve the problem in seven
easy steps. They'll also do things that introduce you to
lenders and investors who want to work with companies like yours.
Only though, when you have the corporate veil, it's go
bisible dot com So, Zach, this is a really state
company and they and they love people, Zach. I. As
I watch this, I get tears in my eyes because
of their love for people. They want to lower housing
costs for human beings. And Zach, this one, this one
comes from the heart. It really is.
Speaker 7: I would you like to hear about how sinister the
Austin housing market is. I just saw this list sting
on realtor dot com. It's for a four bedroom house
that's listed at two hundred and ninety three thousand dollars.
I said, well, golly g for Austin, Texas. That's a
pretty dang good price. Let's see what this house is
all about. It says this property is listed as a leasehold.
Don't know what that is through Jubilee's joint purchase program. Okay,
haven't met Jubilee yet, but I'm willing to learn more.
Making home ownership more accessible with a lower entry cost.
Love to hear that you buy the home while Jubilee
buys the land and rents it back to you heavily,
reducing upfront costs and keeping monthly expenses comparable to a
traditional purchase. You can also buy the land back anytime Alternatively,
the property can be purchased outright for seven hundred and
ninety nine thousand dollars. Estimated land rent for a home
in South Austin is two nine hundred forty six dollars
per month. This home is not just a residence, it's
a sanctuary.
Speaker 1: So you have private equity firms getting into the business
of selling people sticks and concrete and calling it a home.
And this is this You know that guy made fun
of me. I don't have a strategic phone in my body.
Oh I think I see the strategy here, but you
know more about it than I do. So what's your
first read on this stuff?
Speaker 3: Well? This is this. Look, this is what you get
when you when you hot wire economies and when you
hot wire markets more importantly, meaning, this is the kind
of stuff that happens when you don't. Let see, we
all think that recessions are horrible. Yeah, okay, but nobody
has ever stopped to have a conversation. What does the
absence of recessions? What does the absence of economic cyclicality
look like? Okay, this is what it looks like, guys, Right,
and getting back to everything has a cost. That's why
we should not celebrate when the government steps in and
bails out the market, or bails out this or bails
out that. Yeah, in the short run, it alleviates the pain.
But in the long run, the residual pain you get
down the road is always worse. We know that in life.
Don't put off toke and and that's what we've been doing. Culturally.
We've been front loading fun and deferring cost. Right, and
the chickens are coming home to roost, and so you
look at them and go, do you know what we need?
We need a good old fashioned recession. Now, the tough
part is is you throw it in there in this
political climate. If you have a recession prior to the
next election, you're probably going out office. Right, We're probably
getting a whole new load linear and god knows what
that will look like. So I'm not saying that Trump
should just let the market and economy go to pot
But what I am saying is what you need is
you need prices to come down. Guess what happens in recessions, right, yep.
And so we've got to think about this. We've been trained.
Speaker 8: Over and over and over and over and over to
hear the recession, hear the recession. The only real fear
you have of a recession is if you're somebody that
has a substantial amount to lose, I e. A rich
baby boomer. If you're a kid.
Speaker 3: Making eighteen bucks an hour at Chick fil A, I
got to tell you, a recession's probably all good news
for you. Right, Bills are going to go down, gas
prices go down, rent prices go down. It's it's fine.
Like you go. Ask me and my wife. We were
in the financial industry throughout eight oh nine. They went
through some small and comfortable places. But basically our lives
didn't change. Why because our salaries were not difficult to replace.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 3: We didn't own anything at that time. Right, And this
is one of the big lies that we've been sold.
Recessions make homes more affordable for first time home buyers,
and first time home buyers typically have salaries that are
more much more durable in a recession, meaning this, you
go into a recession, you get a contraction of GDP
two and a half three percent. Chick fil A ain't
laying people off now, the banks might The guy making
two fifty to three hundred grand a year for the
insurance company might, right, the guy working for the marketing
company might make a half million a year. The guy
the programmer for Microsoft make a half millionaire. He might,
but you're not. You see what I'm saying. So we've
been told to all fear the thing that you only
really need to fear if you're already rich. Ye, and
you want to talk about a lack of affordability. And
this is where I come in, And sometimes people, my
own clients get frustrating, Zach, don't blame the baby boomers.
I'm not blaming you, but I'm saying, generally speaking, the
baby boomers as a generation have been willing to rack
up one hundred and thirty percent debt to GDP so
their entitlements never get snagged. They don't have to worry
about recessions. They get the biggest stock market run of
all time while they control seventy percent of the assets
in the United States. Right, it all benefits them, So
of course they don't want to see a recession. Of
course they don't want to see this because if you
own all of the stuff already, all you want to
see is prices go up. Right, And it's it's it's again,
it's it's it's childlike thinking. It's like, hey, let's just
live on candy, candy, candy canes and and Coca Cola classic, right, Like,
there's no downside. Well tonight, you know, we're gonna have
a great time, but there's gonna be downside.
Speaker 1: It's it's look at this as forest fires or forest management.
So we're not going to allow fires forest fires, right, Okay,
so no matter what happens, we're not going to allow
forest fires. But we're also not going to clean out
the forest. So we're not going to clean out the
debt would but it's going to be way too much,
you know, available, way too much to burn. But we're
not going to clear it out because it's all good
because forest fires are bad. Do you know that? Biologically speaking,
some species of plants and botanicals can only grow after fires,
after the.
Speaker 3: Cycles multiple, Yeah, there's multiple. There's multiple pine trees that
actually drop pine cones that do not open if there
is not flame there, like literally, that's how they procreate.
They've got to have fire to release their seed.
Speaker 1: Yes, there are species of flowers and plants that are
important for the whole ecosystem that don't grow. There are
runoffs that do not happen. There are parts of UH
of ecosystems get starved with water and runoff. You have
this this, all of it is eventually cataclysmic when we
don't allow recessions. Just a phrase we use sometimes in training.
If you don't choose rest, rest will choose you. Right, Okay,
you get into an overtraining cycle. Guess what. You can
train all you want, You'll get no gains. Rest is
going to choose you. We could choose to let our
foot off some of the conjuring of money and the
sugar high and the shooting of meth into the economy
and the nicotine mints in the economy that people are using.
We could choose to do that, and in that case
we could kind of have a recession that we expect.
Or we can wait until there is that dry tender
moment and then boom, that's when the bottom drops out.
That's how you get these cataclysmic fires because you haven't
allowed the little fires.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: So, I mean, that's just my monkey way saying, what
other big financial issue to talk about. I'm so curious
what you think about this, because you and I have
talked about H one B visas and what President Trump
has done here. I kind of like this is my
first take on it. We'll talk about this with Zach Abraham,
Chief Investment Offs or Bulwark Capital Management. I do want
to say that I got a note from a guy
and I'm trying to figure out if this is real
or parody. Todd. I stumbled upon your podcast, and you
seem to be a guy who's really really committed to Trump.
That causes me to doubt your veracity and honesty as
a man. I listened anyway because you were talking about
crossfits and you had a guy on to talk about CrossFit.
He had an ad for a coffee company called bone Frog.
I have just one simple question for you. You get
some sort of kickback when people purchase the coffee in
so I don't want anything to do with it, all right,
that's is it a kickback? Tim is my dear friends.
He's the CEO of bone Frog. He's a retired Navy seal.
If the coffee sucked, I would have had to say,
I can't talk about the coffee, I can't promote it.
Do I get a kickback that's money under the table. No,
I do not get a kickback. But to be frank,
there's no way that bone Frog, given the size of company,
could afford the slots that Renew pays for. You Like Renew,
they have money. Look at what they sell, look at
how they save lives. They can spend a lot of
money bone Frog can't. So yes, I get a piece
of the action when you buy coffee. The other reason
I do this is because I believe in tim I
believe in raising money for the families of fallen Navy seals.
Every bag of coffee does that ten percent of proceeds
go to the family of fallen Navy seals. So when
we do things like this, it's because we believe in
companies like this and they need a hand up. Now,
to be honest with you, bone Fogs become a huge partner.
I'm very pleased with this. You know, we're looking at
this other relationship with a company that helps people with
their prepaid legal Now I'm putting a lot of effort
into that. Would I get paid. Yeah, they'd have to
pay a dear amount of money to get on this program,
because they've got the money and I know the margins
and I know what they could earn from this. But
in that case, I'm going to go make sure it's
all locked and loaded. I did that with the coffee.
I know that with the man. It's Bonefrog Coffee dot
com slash Todd. Use promo code Todd to get ten
percent off your first purchase, fifteen percent off subscription coffee
or if you like, If you like, just send me
the money if you don't want to get a kickback,
Actually I don't want you to do that. Bonefrog Coffee
dot com slash Todd promo code Todd. Zach abrahams with
me chief Investment offs for Bulal Capital Measurement. I need
to maybe talk to you about this prepaid legal company.
They want to come on and end. Do you prepaid
legal at bullwork? Do you like if if people sued you,
do you have that? I used to have that at Microsoft.
I loved that advantage. Oh go ahead and assume me
I got prepaid legal.
Speaker 3: No, I've got like actively paid legal.
Speaker 1: You've got the you've got the lawyer down the hall?
Speaker 3: Do you ever chant? Not down the hall? But okay
with my good with my good friends at the SEC.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I've had the privilege of working very close with an
attorney for the last couple of years. Whi's been a
lot of fun.
Speaker 1: My second startup. One of the things we talked about
was having a VP of public affairs because we did
big data. We did this stuff back there and I said,
this is be an attorney, right, could they act as
staff attorney or you know, attorney for us? I said, okay,
I understand something. I'm going to bury that person in
legal work. If that's person's if I ever walked by
and they're not doing something, I'm gonna bury them and
play in parking tickets.
Speaker 3: And yeah, gotta make a quick comment about that that
last ad that you.
Speaker 1: Read, Uh I was in that email?
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, the email? Yeah yeah, uh My My comment
about that would be that comment is so is such
a great example I think of what is so one
of the things that's so wrong in our society. Yeah,
first of all, Hu, and look, that gentleman could be
I don't mean to denigrate him personally or anything like that,
but that gentleman could be substantially older than me. But
my first question would be how old are or how
old are you? And and do you have any wisdom
of any kind? Meaning where do you work? Sir?
Speaker 7: Oh?
Speaker 3: That's you know, I work at FedEx. Are you getting
kickbacks from him. Get so what you call a kickback,
he actually calls a salary. Right, So that's how he
makes money. People pay them to review their goods and
if Todd likes them, then he will rep them and
give them visibility. Okay, so a don't be an idiot,
look at your own life and examine your own life
before you And but b here's the other thing. When
you want to make judgement about somebody, it's best to
listen probably to more than one or two episodes because
if he had what he'd learn about you and what
I know about you from knowing you for a very
long time. But what you'd learned from this podcast is
when Trump is right, yes, I'm gonna support what Trump says.
When Trump is wrong or you disagree with them, you
also say that why wait, you're a Trump supporter, and
that makes me question your veracity. So are you a
Biden supporter? And that should make us not question your
forver ask like, what is your point? You know what
I mean?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 3: Like? And and also are you one of those people
that if Trump says the sky's blue, you're gonna laugh
and say it's purple because he's an idiot, or are.
Speaker 1: You gobb Have you seen the pregnant women gobbling tailanol? No,
there's there's pregnant women making videos where they're gobbling tailanol.
Speaker 8: I know.
Speaker 3: And my attitude is is like more than the Lord's work.
Speaker 1: Well, I'd rather not have it harm their babies.
Speaker 3: No.
Speaker 1: I A. There's this argument going on even in so
called red state Idaho, where there's a move to give
people a five thousand dollar tax credit to be able
to go to private schools. And so some of our
principles here holding public meetings public schools at risk from
poor profit entities. And I'm going to go to one
of these meetings and say, hey, thank you teacher, principal,
administrator for being on the panel of the day. Please
raise your hand. Those of you who are not paid
for working in the school, the circ everybody raise your hand,
because Principal Jones, I looked at your pay scale. This
is Idaho. Average income here is about sixty two thousand
a year. You're pulling down one sixty nine months of
work per year. You're get to get a pension when
you retire. Your pension is going to be about one
fifty per year. And we're going to pay for your
health care for the rest of your life. Tell me
you're not.
Speaker 3: You're just looking out for the kids, right.
Speaker 1: This has nothing to do with money, do it for free?
Your union put forty nine million dollars into Democrat donations
in this cycle.
Speaker 3: Home On. They didn't invest it in a way to
help offset the costs of private school for kids that
want that as an option.
Speaker 1: No, because that's common. That's at Wait, No, that's nazisn't.
Speaker 3: And they didn't put it in the public plot to
help subsidize the public schools.
Speaker 1: No, and there's teachers who are paying out of their
pockets for materials in the government schools. Well, your union's not.
Randy Weingarten's net worth is up there around ten twelve
million bucks. So, but this is not for profit.
Speaker 3: Here's the other thing that look if you and I've
looked into this and spent probably a stupid amount of
time focused on it, But it is impossible to understand
the construct of the modern education system in the United
States if you do not look at it through the
lens of total autocratic control by the unions, the teachers'
unions meaning it. And it's not hard to figure out
why it's dysfunctional. You and I have talked about this.
To be successful or to be functional takes incredible purpose,
incredible discipline, and incredible focus. Right when that isn't your goal,
the chances of doing it are impossible. So when you
show me an educational system that is construc and overseen
by people that are looking out primarily for the control
of that system via those that run it, right, the
administrators and the teachers yep, and mostly the administrators. To
be fair, right, the teachers aren't getting rich. The administrators are.
And when you look at that construct and you view
it through that lens, all of a sudden everything makes sense,
absolutely right. You sit there and go lowering student standards, well,
every time you hear that, you're lowering teacher standards. Okay,
you know, more days off in service days, all this stuff.
You look at all of it. It is all about this. Hey,
how about this? How about we have a system where
how we define success or failure is the performance of
a student, and yet the people that interact with that
student on a daily basis are the lowest paid people
in that system. That literally would be like if the
clubhouse managers for the Mariners made more than the players did.
Speaker 1: Exactly, And there's this opposite. I want people to think
about my daughter recently. Man, she pursued this job zact.
She wanted work at this company. She's gotten there, and
she's done a great job being there early. We've talked
about this, you know, first to leave her first, to
arrive last, to leave all those behaviors. So proud of her.
In a business like hers, it's a retail setting. One
thing that I've noticed with her is she does a
really like, really quiet and friendly job of suggestive selling.
I'm so proud of her. Was watching her work and
this family came in and they ordered some lunch items,
and my daughter walked by the baker area and she says, oh, wow,
we just made these scones. And then she kind of
walked by and they said what. She goes, oh, I'm sorry,
we just baked these scones this morning. And the lady stops.
She goes, you baked those here? Yeah, yeah, we just
baked those this morning. Oh well, what flavors do you have?
Speaker 2: Next?
Speaker 1: Thing? You know, well, was this but if I were you?
And my daughter kind of leans in and if I
were you, and she's giving her the cinnamon punkman thing.
And the lady's in right, she's getting this, and you know,
she gives us to her, and as the ladies looking around,
she said, did you want coffee with that? So all
of a sudden, now it's some lunch salads, got the scones,
got the coffees. And if I'm sitting there, I'm the
manager looking there, an owner because I know the owners there.
Often she'd look at that and go, that's my girl,
that's my and you're pleasing the customer. Now compare this
to the unions. Did you want some lower standards with that?
And uh, less discipline? And could I introduce you in
a gang shooting or two? How about some molestation by.
Speaker 3: Some teachers and trans reading time right?
Speaker 1: And and and yeah we can have men come in
and t work for you and ladies underwear? Can I
interest you in that? It's the exact opposite of what
my daughter's doing. And yet the unions you're like, yeah,
bring more of that.
Speaker 3: That's well really because it absolves them of any source
of responsibility. Right, Like you'd be like, hey, here's the deal, man,
I got a deal for you as a Bulwark client.
You're gonna pay me a quarter and a half and
when we have a bad year, it's going up to
one and a half. Where do you want to sign?
Where do you want to sign?
Speaker 1: Right? Casher charge. Let me ask you this quick question.
How do you feel about the one hundred thousand dollars
h one B visa per applicant that President Trump signed
into being so mixed feeling?
Speaker 3: Mixed feelings all why A you want to protect I
even hate using that word because I'm a big believer
in free markets.
Speaker 1: But but we.
Speaker 3: All acknowledge that there have been a lot of things
that I think we've overlooked over the past, you know,
two three, four decades in terms of keeping a mind
and and and attention out for the workers of this country.
Right like this, I don't want to be protectionists, but
at the same time, we also don't want to just
open up our back door and let people, you know,
loot us for lack of a better term. Right, So,
uh so, I like I like the fact that there
is a barrier or a cost there that would incentivize
a company to hire domestically. I'm not nuts about the
idea that anything that stops the best and brightest or
is a roadblock from the best and brightest around the
world coming here. And I know that both opinions are
not that simple, right, because a lot of the people
that are coming here. I don't know what it is
as a percentage of the total, my guess is it's
probably pretty small. But there's a percentage of the people
that are coming here that are coming here for nefarious reasons.
I'm aware of that, right That troubles me. On the
flip side, I also know that you know, we wouldn't
be sitting here right now unless you know, we wouldn't
be sitting here in the exact same way we are
now probably having this conversation if we would have had
a similar attitude about bringing in talented workers, you know,
during or after World War Two, out of places like Germany.
You know, So when you when you when you understand
the economic history of this country, so much innovation and
so many things have been driven by people that weren't
born here. Yeah, and so it's it's it's a tough one, man.
I understand the move. But like anything, you know, like
everything you and I've talked about, it's a cost benefit analysis,
and I you know, it's one of those things kind
of like I've said about the tariffs, like, realistically, if
we want to sit back and take a look at things,
and you know, the tariffs are a perfect example of this,
todd because remember what everybody was saying when it first
came out, the iPhone is going to be twenty six
hundred bucks. Well it's not, okay, So there's now did
I understand and have sympathy for that? Take when when
when the tariffs are firs announced? Yes, But it's just
more proof of there's a lot of different moving factors
here and things will change as we go along and
and and accurately predicting the future is the most difficult
thing in the world to do, right, So you got
to keep you got to keep a you know, you
got to keep an open mind. But I yeah, this
this one is tough. I think we'll only know in
time if that's the right approach. I don't know, and
I agree with you.
Speaker 1: That we're only known time. The reason I'm sympathetic to
it is this that when I was reading about people
bringing in folks to work at convenience sources HBO and
visas UH and then putting them in their apartment buildings
that had to stay that entire swindle that no longer pencils, right, So,
and like, hey, Google, there's this great, huge, amazing mind
that he's escaping Iran. He's been in their nuclear facility.
He's escaped, and we can bring him here, and he
loves America supposedly, But there's this one hundred thousand Google
laughs at one hundred thousand dollars right right In one way,
that also then challenges startups. But again, if you're a
startup and you have any venture capital funding, and hey,
you know what, We've got the chance to bring in
the world's best AI coder, but it's going to cost
us one hundred grand. Your VC is going. Why am
I on the phone?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Just do it?
Speaker 1: Yeah? Why is this? Put it on your AMEX will
pay you back? Why are you right?
Speaker 3: They're like, what do you mean you said one hundred mil?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 3: No, one hundred grand?
Speaker 1: Why am I this phone call?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I gotta go to lunch.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go spend one hundred and fifty grand at lunch, right,
all right? Zach Abraham, my brother, chief investment Officer Board
Capital Management, thank you for joining us, my friends, and
please go with God's good grace.
Speaker 3: Ban As always man. Thanks for having me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, my pleasure. This is the Todd Herman Shaw. Please go,
be well, be strong, be kind, and please make every
effort to walk in the light of Christ.