WEBVTT 1 00:00:01.840 --> 00:00:05.440 All right, we're doing another one of these, another monologue. 2 00:00:05.719 --> 00:00:09.960 Now there are two reasons I'm doing a monologue. First, 3 00:00:10.359 --> 00:00:15.720 and perhaps most importantly is scheduling reasons. I couldn't get 4 00:00:15.720 --> 00:00:18.160 anyone to record, have a bunch of stuff scheduled, but 5 00:00:18.559 --> 00:00:22.600 things moved around, people got sick. But secondly, there's been 6 00:00:22.640 --> 00:00:27.879 a big change in my home state state of Virginia. So, 7 00:00:28.399 --> 00:00:35.520 as you've probably heard, the Virginia Constitutional Amendment has passed 8 00:00:36.600 --> 00:00:40.520 a big picture this was a redistricting which moved it 9 00:00:40.600 --> 00:00:47.560 from being five Democrat seats to four Republican seats. I 10 00:00:47.560 --> 00:00:49.840 got that to those numbers, maybe it's six and five 11 00:00:49.960 --> 00:00:54.280 excuse me, to ten and one nears bankes no difference 12 00:00:54.280 --> 00:00:59.920 on that. The map is sort of ridiculous. For instance, 13 00:01:00.759 --> 00:01:04.480 the county where Arlington is will have five representatives. As 14 00:01:04.519 --> 00:01:07.040 you can imagine, that is perhaps one of the most 15 00:01:07.799 --> 00:01:12.159 blue counties heavily populated. So of course what they're doing 16 00:01:12.200 --> 00:01:16.400 is basically Jerry Manner stacking the deck. It was a 17 00:01:16.480 --> 00:01:21.000 narrow election, all in less than a percent, and I 18 00:01:21.000 --> 00:01:23.120 think that there are a couple of interesting things to 19 00:01:23.159 --> 00:01:27.439 take away from it. This wasn't super surprising to me 20 00:01:27.680 --> 00:01:33.760 as far as results go. The state is just on 21 00:01:33.799 --> 00:01:36.480 the edge of being a blue rather than a purple state. 22 00:01:37.159 --> 00:01:39.079 As you can sort of see in the raw results, 23 00:01:39.560 --> 00:01:45.359 pretty much every county shifted to the right minus Northern Virginia. 24 00:01:45.519 --> 00:01:49.319 The raw breakdown on this is sort of interesting. Major 25 00:01:49.359 --> 00:01:53.480 cities were plus one or two, like a pretty narrow margin, 26 00:01:53.920 --> 00:01:59.599 but Northern Virginia often called Nova right swung heart and 27 00:01:59.640 --> 00:02:05.079 that was the deciding factor. The suburbs, rural areas all 28 00:02:05.120 --> 00:02:09.800 strongly no, no surprise. But that's the sort of breakdown 29 00:02:10.120 --> 00:02:13.560 of the results. A couple things to take away, which 30 00:02:13.599 --> 00:02:18.000 is one, this will turn into a legal fight for 31 00:02:18.080 --> 00:02:21.159 a couple of reasons. Right, let me just pull this 32 00:02:21.280 --> 00:02:22.840 up so I can have my notes in front of me. 33 00:02:23.439 --> 00:02:29.479 But effectively, the way that this was done broke several laws. 34 00:02:30.400 --> 00:02:32.680 Not to get too into it, but effectively what they 35 00:02:32.719 --> 00:02:35.919 did is two years ago they had a special session 36 00:02:36.520 --> 00:02:39.400 is supposed to be a temporary thing to pass a budget. 37 00:02:39.560 --> 00:02:42.280 They kept that going for two years and used that 38 00:02:42.439 --> 00:02:47.159 to get this on the ballot. Also, the way that 39 00:02:47.520 --> 00:02:52.960 the there are state laws in Virginia that basically limit 40 00:02:53.800 --> 00:02:58.639 redistricting to benefit the incumbent, right to benefit the group 41 00:02:58.680 --> 00:03:01.520 in power and so who knows there will be a 42 00:03:01.599 --> 00:03:04.280 legal challenge. I don't necessarily have a ton of faith 43 00:03:04.280 --> 00:03:08.039 in that, but it's interesting to see. But what can 44 00:03:08.039 --> 00:03:12.280 we take away from this, Right, One, the most basic level, 45 00:03:12.479 --> 00:03:15.800 the Democrats are really good at politics, way better than 46 00:03:15.840 --> 00:03:19.120 the Republicans. That's one. We'll come back to that. Two, 47 00:03:20.639 --> 00:03:25.240 it's not surprising given that the Virginia GOP or the 48 00:03:25.319 --> 00:03:28.560 Virginia gubernatorial candidate win some Earl sears was sort of 49 00:03:28.560 --> 00:03:35.560 the basis of my GOP Samson option article and then podcast, 50 00:03:36.080 --> 00:03:39.039 is that this was sort of thrown, not really thrown. 51 00:03:39.879 --> 00:03:42.719 But the GOP did not spend anything on this. They 52 00:03:42.719 --> 00:03:45.240 didn't dump a ton of money into it. They sort 53 00:03:45.240 --> 00:03:49.360 of just did what they could. Believe. The Democrats spent 54 00:03:49.639 --> 00:03:52.800 I want to say, two or three times more for 55 00:03:52.840 --> 00:03:57.800 a pretty narrow margin of victory. So that's part of it, right, 56 00:03:57.840 --> 00:04:01.319 there's a certain amount of malfeasance. It also is interesting 57 00:04:01.319 --> 00:04:04.400 because it shows that the state is more to the 58 00:04:04.479 --> 00:04:09.360 right than recent electoral results would tell you. Now, look, 59 00:04:09.439 --> 00:04:13.439 it's still a blue leaning state. The Virginia Republicans in 60 00:04:13.479 --> 00:04:16.040 a previous era were sort of Chamber of Commerce types. 61 00:04:16.199 --> 00:04:20.680 They welcomed certain industries. They welcomed immigration and they're dealing 62 00:04:20.680 --> 00:04:24.360 with the consequences of that. But when some earl sears 63 00:04:24.399 --> 00:04:28.680 the previous governor was an astonishingly poor candidate. So for background, 64 00:04:28.920 --> 00:04:37.120 our last Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin, sort of unexpectedly snuck 65 00:04:37.160 --> 00:04:41.160 in off of the back of a major trans scandal 66 00:04:41.439 --> 00:04:44.959 in the Louden County Public schools. A boy had self 67 00:04:45.000 --> 00:04:47.759 described as trans, used that access to the bathroom to 68 00:04:47.759 --> 00:04:51.959 horrifically abuse several students, and the school covered it up. 69 00:04:52.399 --> 00:04:58.360 This sort of coincided with the election catapulted Youngkin into power, 70 00:04:58.720 --> 00:05:02.040 and he was a moderate who's a moderate Republican made 71 00:05:03.079 --> 00:05:06.360 not really a lot of sort of hardline changes that 72 00:05:06.399 --> 00:05:10.160 you or I listener would appreciate, but governed well. So 73 00:05:10.399 --> 00:05:15.560 did things like, uh, you know, fixing our DMV system, 74 00:05:15.879 --> 00:05:20.240 you know, increased government efficiency in that way. And even 75 00:05:20.439 --> 00:05:23.839 during you know, the second Trump presidency where Republicans were hurting, 76 00:05:23.879 --> 00:05:26.279 he was very popular, right, he had a he was 77 00:05:26.439 --> 00:05:30.639 I believe a fifty eight percent approval rating, and so 78 00:05:30.879 --> 00:05:33.079 he would assume, I mean literally just run the same guy, 79 00:05:33.160 --> 00:05:37.959 he would have won. But what he and other Republicans 80 00:05:37.959 --> 00:05:40.920 in his organization did is. Well, they didn't want that. 81 00:05:41.759 --> 00:05:45.639 They wanted this woman when some earl sears, who was 82 00:05:45.680 --> 00:05:49.279 a Jamaican immigrant woman of color, seems like a very 83 00:05:49.360 --> 00:05:53.040 nice lady. They wanted her, and so they didn't run 84 00:05:53.040 --> 00:05:57.600 a primer, they just selected her. There are reports from 85 00:05:57.759 --> 00:06:02.639 state legislatures, legislate tours, excuse me, that they were being 86 00:06:02.720 --> 00:06:06.000 threatened if you know, if you oppose her, if you 87 00:06:06.079 --> 00:06:09.279 run as a candidate, we'll make bad things happen to you. 88 00:06:10.120 --> 00:06:13.279 And really, when she was sort of railroaded in, that's 89 00:06:13.279 --> 00:06:15.639 when I saw the writing on the wall, because the 90 00:06:15.680 --> 00:06:18.720 base didn't want her. Why did the base not want her, Well, 91 00:06:18.920 --> 00:06:23.079 there's the obvious reasons. She's not representative of I mean 92 00:06:23.160 --> 00:06:27.759 really Americans at all. Let alone, you know, the kind 93 00:06:27.759 --> 00:06:30.319 of good old boys, even the old money in the state. 94 00:06:31.079 --> 00:06:35.519 And also she had kind of bad opinions, right. She 95 00:06:35.600 --> 00:06:39.480 was very anti Confederate Monument, she was anti Trump. And look, 96 00:06:39.600 --> 00:06:41.560 as you guys know, I'm not a big fan of 97 00:06:41.600 --> 00:06:45.560 the president. I've done dozens of hours on exactly that. 98 00:06:45.959 --> 00:06:51.279 But fundamentally, in combination with just being a poor choice demographically, 99 00:06:51.839 --> 00:06:54.360 the writing was sort of on the wall, right, So 100 00:06:54.399 --> 00:06:57.720 we start to see that sort of creeping malfeasance. Similarly, 101 00:06:57.879 --> 00:07:00.639 during the race, she's just getting beaten or to post. 102 00:07:01.199 --> 00:07:04.319 And now we saw the consequences of that. Right, what 103 00:07:04.560 --> 00:07:08.600 happens when you in a purple state in a blue state. 104 00:07:08.680 --> 00:07:12.480 Now make that sort of run right where you try 105 00:07:12.519 --> 00:07:16.000 and you know, pick up points due to you know, 106 00:07:16.079 --> 00:07:19.439 identity politics. Right, Oh, we're the first party that ran 107 00:07:19.519 --> 00:07:24.000 a female woeman of color, immigrant. We lose both, right, 108 00:07:24.040 --> 00:07:29.000 you lose your base and you definitely don't get any 109 00:07:29.040 --> 00:07:32.839 of the demographics you would expect to. Or an article 110 00:07:32.839 --> 00:07:36.519 about this for Chronicles a while back called in Search 111 00:07:36.560 --> 00:07:40.000 of Natural Conservatives. Right, the idea is you hear echoed 112 00:07:40.519 --> 00:07:43.959 all the way since Reagan, is that different minority groups 113 00:07:44.399 --> 00:07:49.360 Black Americans, Muslims, immigrants are all naturally conservative. They don't 114 00:07:49.439 --> 00:07:53.800 like gay marriage, you know, they have traditional family roles. 115 00:07:54.879 --> 00:08:00.360 But despite years, I mean decades longer than I've been live, 116 00:08:01.480 --> 00:08:05.360 tens of millions, if not more, of dollars to cultivate 117 00:08:05.399 --> 00:08:08.199 those natural conservatives. Well, what do we see. We see 118 00:08:08.240 --> 00:08:10.360 what once the rural seal shows us, which is that 119 00:08:10.439 --> 00:08:16.199 she won absolutely abysmal percent of single digits right of 120 00:08:16.399 --> 00:08:20.759 all of these relevant minority groups. She dramatically lost women, 121 00:08:21.920 --> 00:08:25.560 and so that bet that we've made over and over 122 00:08:25.639 --> 00:08:30.160 and over again, all it turns out didn't work right. 123 00:08:30.800 --> 00:08:35.519 Nobody liked her, and well, what were the consequences of that, Well, 124 00:08:35.559 --> 00:08:40.919 the consequences of a blue but not dramatically blue state 125 00:08:41.519 --> 00:08:45.120 with Democrats and all three branches. I mean it was 126 00:08:45.559 --> 00:08:55.200 dramatic right, sweeping bands on firearms, impunitive policies around trans stuff, 127 00:08:55.320 --> 00:09:00.360 lgbt UH, complete restrictions on you know, any group tied 128 00:09:00.360 --> 00:09:03.120 to the Confederacy, which that will probably end up going 129 00:09:03.120 --> 00:09:08.879 to courts. Well, but point stands for legalized race discrimination. 130 00:09:09.720 --> 00:09:13.799 There's a law going through basically a ward that will 131 00:09:13.799 --> 00:09:17.799 basically force the government, the state government rather to choose 132 00:09:17.919 --> 00:09:21.720 women and minority owned contractors, even if they are they 133 00:09:21.720 --> 00:09:24.639 are more expensive a ratio of about eleven percent, So 134 00:09:24.759 --> 00:09:31.480 literally financially incentivizing race communism, which is not good as 135 00:09:31.759 --> 00:09:35.120 unjust is wrong. And so we see the consequences. And 136 00:09:35.159 --> 00:09:39.039 so given that that sort of trial run right of 137 00:09:39.080 --> 00:09:43.360 what happens when you lose, we would assume that, well, 138 00:09:43.360 --> 00:09:47.000 the next time around, when what we are voting on, 139 00:09:47.120 --> 00:09:50.960 this sort of event is not simply one election with 140 00:09:51.039 --> 00:09:56.840 consequences one way or another. But the voting map going forward, Now, 141 00:09:56.840 --> 00:10:01.840 it's interesting, this is technically temporary, we'll see. I am 142 00:10:02.399 --> 00:10:05.559 somewhat skeptical that any party, Well I should say that 143 00:10:05.559 --> 00:10:08.799 that the Democrats will give up such a huge electoral 144 00:10:08.799 --> 00:10:13.440 advantage just because it's temporary. You would assume, given that 145 00:10:14.600 --> 00:10:17.039 you would pull out all the stops, right, you would 146 00:10:17.559 --> 00:10:22.399 losing to a large number of electoral seats, basically shooting 147 00:10:22.399 --> 00:10:25.879 yourself in the foot going forward. And well, that's not 148 00:10:25.919 --> 00:10:28.000 what we saw, right, we saw the same sort of 149 00:10:28.200 --> 00:10:33.159 limp wristed approach. I think it's important to mention that 150 00:10:33.799 --> 00:10:40.720 this did turn out slightly differently than I expected, because 151 00:10:40.919 --> 00:10:43.879 you know, the last election was an absolute dropping. Abigail 152 00:10:43.919 --> 00:10:46.919 Spanberger won about fifty eight percent of the vote to 153 00:10:47.200 --> 00:10:51.279 forty two or pretty dramatic, where this is a much 154 00:10:51.360 --> 00:10:55.960 tighter race. It was like fifty one point four four 155 00:10:56.799 --> 00:10:59.440 and I mentioned earlier how that broke down by location. 156 00:11:00.799 --> 00:11:07.080 But effectively, the referendum got significantly more votes than the 157 00:11:07.159 --> 00:11:13.039 last candidate did. She was a astonishingly poor candidate, really 158 00:11:13.120 --> 00:11:17.240 not that surprising. And what's interesting is that because this 159 00:11:17.320 --> 00:11:21.399 is cast as as a temporary measure. It was justified 160 00:11:21.480 --> 00:11:24.480 as a response to Trump. There's a clip of Trump 161 00:11:24.519 --> 00:11:27.879 talking about redistricting in Indiana which was unsuccessful. I might 162 00:11:28.000 --> 00:11:30.720 mention where he basically said, you know, they need to 163 00:11:31.919 --> 00:11:34.519 they need to Jerry Manner. He didn't say those words, 164 00:11:35.159 --> 00:11:37.840 and that was a big part of the motivation for it. 165 00:11:38.240 --> 00:11:39.960 And I think there's a couple things that are interesting, 166 00:11:40.000 --> 00:11:43.120 which is one you mentioned or I mentioned earlier that 167 00:11:43.120 --> 00:11:45.039 the Democrats are just better at politics. And this is 168 00:11:45.039 --> 00:11:49.879 a classic example, because one Indiana is much more Republican 169 00:11:50.080 --> 00:11:53.639 than Virginia is Democrat. Not that you'd not that you'd 170 00:11:53.679 --> 00:11:56.120 know that right from how those states are governed per se. 171 00:11:56.799 --> 00:12:00.039 But the Republicans weren't able to do it right. You 172 00:12:00.120 --> 00:12:03.840 remember that guy with a special need son who he 173 00:12:03.919 --> 00:12:06.679 shot it down because Donald Trump said the word retarded. 174 00:12:07.320 --> 00:12:10.639 Can't allow that. So I'm going to be principled. I'm 175 00:12:10.679 --> 00:12:15.720 going to say this is wrong. And so Indiana has 176 00:12:15.759 --> 00:12:18.759 the same districts that used to Republicans didn't pick up it. 177 00:12:20.000 --> 00:12:24.639 Now we've seen other redistricting in California and Texas, and 178 00:12:24.679 --> 00:12:27.320 I think that that's sort of an interesting trend if 179 00:12:27.320 --> 00:12:29.519 we look at the last ten years of politics, is 180 00:12:29.559 --> 00:12:33.240 that really purple states are going away, states are becoming 181 00:12:33.399 --> 00:12:38.720 hyper partisan. You've actually even seen that in internal migration, right, 182 00:12:38.759 --> 00:12:41.879 where are people moving? Generally speaking, you have red state 183 00:12:41.960 --> 00:12:45.039 voters from places or read voters excuse me, from places 184 00:12:45.080 --> 00:12:50.879 like California and New England moving south, moving to other places. Also, 185 00:12:51.120 --> 00:12:54.679 you have in states like Florida, blue voters leaving. Now 186 00:12:54.799 --> 00:12:57.919 that's not an endorsement of the Florida political class, who 187 00:12:57.960 --> 00:13:00.480 I have my firm criticisms of, but that is an 188 00:13:00.519 --> 00:13:05.559 interesting development. Of course, we're seeing increased polarization, and so 189 00:13:05.759 --> 00:13:09.039 to me, this sort of jerry mannering is probably an 190 00:13:09.080 --> 00:13:14.480 overly punitive way of describing it, a creative interpretation right 191 00:13:15.000 --> 00:13:19.080 around voting districts that will most likely increase. But again, 192 00:13:20.120 --> 00:13:23.279 quite simply, the Democrats are better at this. One of 193 00:13:23.320 --> 00:13:26.759 the ways you can tell they're better is the how 194 00:13:26.799 --> 00:13:29.679 this came about, which I mentioned earlier, right, sort of 195 00:13:29.679 --> 00:13:32.679 abusing and torturing the system to get what you want. 196 00:13:33.159 --> 00:13:36.639 There's no pretense that these rules matter unless if you're 197 00:13:36.639 --> 00:13:39.799 held to account, So why bother? That's how you will 198 00:13:40.000 --> 00:13:42.399 play if you want to win. Right, if you view 199 00:13:42.440 --> 00:13:46.559 this as existential, which seemingly at least one side of 200 00:13:46.559 --> 00:13:49.799 this doesn't. I mean, on another point, I think it's 201 00:13:50.279 --> 00:13:55.679 worth bringing up even the language of this of this amendment. 202 00:13:56.039 --> 00:13:58.600 So this is what you would have seen if, like me, 203 00:13:58.720 --> 00:14:02.919 you went into your polling place yesterday. Question should the 204 00:14:02.919 --> 00:14:06.559 Constitution of Virginia be amended to allow the General Assembly 205 00:14:06.639 --> 00:14:10.639 to temporarily adopt new congressional districts to restore fairness in 206 00:14:10.679 --> 00:14:13.399 the upcoming elections? And then it says, you know, it 207 00:14:13.399 --> 00:14:16.159 goes back to normal after twenty thirty. I think that's 208 00:14:16.240 --> 00:14:20.440 interesting that phrase, right, restore fairness, because you're seeing the 209 00:14:20.519 --> 00:14:24.519 advantage of being in power. You get to set the question, 210 00:14:25.039 --> 00:14:29.080 you get to set the null hypothesis. You are using 211 00:14:29.320 --> 00:14:34.759 your power to give yourself more power. That's how it works. 212 00:14:34.799 --> 00:14:37.799 That's what a win is, you know, a win. And 213 00:14:37.840 --> 00:14:39.799 this is a problem that I think right wingers and 214 00:14:39.840 --> 00:14:42.919 conservatives have more generally, is that the moment they get 215 00:14:42.919 --> 00:14:47.200 a win, however small, they're like gorillas. Right. They want 216 00:14:47.200 --> 00:14:49.240 to beat on their chests and scream to the sky. 217 00:14:49.720 --> 00:14:54.600 You know the meme, right, We're gonna have and kill you. Right, 218 00:14:54.720 --> 00:14:58.879 is exactly that we did it? Did it? Reddit? It's 219 00:14:58.919 --> 00:15:02.320 not how they work. Right, They're much better about this. 220 00:15:03.519 --> 00:15:07.200 They understand that what do you do when you win? 221 00:15:08.279 --> 00:15:11.360 You reinvest it back into the business. This is the 222 00:15:11.399 --> 00:15:15.279 equivalent of, you know, the kind of prototypical sports star 223 00:15:15.840 --> 00:15:18.200 who gets a big contract, who gets a win and 224 00:15:18.320 --> 00:15:22.759 dumps it all into you know, g wagons and gold chains. Right, 225 00:15:22.759 --> 00:15:25.720 you're flexing it. You've got this power, you've got this wealth, 226 00:15:26.159 --> 00:15:30.000 and well what happens what goes away? You compare that 227 00:15:30.240 --> 00:15:32.960 to you know, figures like Jack, who you know, admittedly 228 00:15:33.000 --> 00:15:35.039 is by no means a philosopher, but he's a smart man. 229 00:15:36.840 --> 00:15:40.679 He took his athletic career, took that money and reinvested it. 230 00:15:41.360 --> 00:15:44.480 He owns a notable percentage of all Chick fil A 231 00:15:45.799 --> 00:15:50.480 franchises across the country, and now he is obscenely wealthy. Right. 232 00:15:50.519 --> 00:15:53.759 He took that initial win, that wealth or that power, 233 00:15:54.840 --> 00:15:57.120 and reinvest it, put it back in And well, how 234 00:15:57.120 --> 00:15:59.000 do you do that? Well, a big part of it is, 235 00:15:59.039 --> 00:16:02.240 like I said, setting that hypothesis, because if you just 236 00:16:02.279 --> 00:16:05.279 read that, you would really have no idea what it 237 00:16:05.320 --> 00:16:09.000 was about. Right, Seemingly, I want to restore fairness. That 238 00:16:09.080 --> 00:16:13.039 seems like a good thing in elections, but you know, you, 239 00:16:13.679 --> 00:16:16.039 if you hadn't looked into it, you have no idea 240 00:16:16.200 --> 00:16:19.480 that this would take a fifty five forty five state, 241 00:16:20.039 --> 00:16:23.320 which is pretty close to you know, a one seat 242 00:16:23.480 --> 00:16:26.039 advantage in a state with eleven seats. Right, that math 243 00:16:26.200 --> 00:16:30.759 is pretty close. It seems pretty fair too, you know, 244 00:16:30.879 --> 00:16:33.840 a ninety two eight. Whatever the math on that comes 245 00:16:33.840 --> 00:16:38.200 out to, don't check it. It's not right. But that's 246 00:16:38.279 --> 00:16:43.879 power at work right now. Big picture, what comes from this. 247 00:16:45.480 --> 00:16:48.080 I mean, look, as a Virginia and not particularly excited 248 00:16:48.120 --> 00:16:52.279 about this, things are going to get worse. And I 249 00:16:52.279 --> 00:16:55.120 think for a lot of people in purple even blue states, 250 00:16:55.159 --> 00:16:57.639 there is this feeling of like, ah, should I leave? 251 00:16:57.679 --> 00:16:59.879 Should I get out? And look, if you have a 252 00:16:59.879 --> 00:17:02.399 business that's going to be affected, if you're a government contractor, 253 00:17:02.440 --> 00:17:05.359 if you're an FFL, right, someone who sells guns, I 254 00:17:05.359 --> 00:17:08.240 can't blame you for wanting to get out of Dodge. 255 00:17:08.440 --> 00:17:12.319 But look, I live here, I've been here, my family 256 00:17:12.319 --> 00:17:15.599 at least for four hundred years. On the shelf next 257 00:17:15.599 --> 00:17:19.720 to me, I've got two comprehensive you know, family histories 258 00:17:19.759 --> 00:17:22.880 that date back to the seventeenth century. Right of my 259 00:17:22.960 --> 00:17:26.319 people being here, my friends, I have a community I'm 260 00:17:26.319 --> 00:17:30.000 not lead, and there will be consequences of that. Things 261 00:17:30.000 --> 00:17:34.079 will get less safe. I've decriminalized homelessness and reduced the 262 00:17:34.079 --> 00:17:37.880 mandatory minimums for you know, kind of minor crimes like 263 00:17:38.200 --> 00:17:42.839 rape and murder. So that's that's a real problem. That 264 00:17:43.079 --> 00:17:46.920 definitely affects me. And there is a world in which 265 00:17:46.960 --> 00:17:51.000 those become so drastic, so dire that you know you do, 266 00:17:51.759 --> 00:17:55.519 like Abraham, you need to flee. But it's not me. 267 00:17:56.200 --> 00:18:00.599 I'm staying here. I don't know where else I would fit. 268 00:18:02.440 --> 00:18:08.759 But on the national stage, there are reasons to there 269 00:18:08.759 --> 00:18:12.400 are reasons to be pessimistic. Right, the Republican Party is 270 00:18:12.440 --> 00:18:17.200 seemingly self immolating, at least I think deliberately. And when 271 00:18:17.200 --> 00:18:18.960 we look at you know, what seems to be an 272 00:18:19.000 --> 00:18:22.240 impending energy crisis. A lot of people, this is a sidebar, 273 00:18:23.079 --> 00:18:28.799 were too quick to dismiss the energy problems with the 274 00:18:28.799 --> 00:18:32.000 strait being closed because it didn't hit immediately. You have 275 00:18:32.000 --> 00:18:36.440 to understand that the way commodities contracts work, which I 276 00:18:36.480 --> 00:18:38.680 say you have to understand as if I understand it, 277 00:18:39.200 --> 00:18:42.079 but that shock won't hit. But nonetheless, right, you have 278 00:18:42.279 --> 00:18:46.519 a president bleeding popularity, a party you know, undergoing chaos, 279 00:18:47.160 --> 00:18:51.440 and so yeah, like that's probably going to produce a 280 00:18:51.519 --> 00:18:54.440 very negative result. But if we're talking about this sort 281 00:18:54.440 --> 00:18:59.519 of gerrymandering and redistricting nationally, there are a couple things 282 00:19:00.079 --> 00:19:05.880 at or worth mention, right, if we're looking at the 283 00:19:05.960 --> 00:19:08.920 kind of deliberate sabotage, the fact that the Save Act 284 00:19:08.960 --> 00:19:12.160 hasn't passed is a pretty egregious example of that. This 285 00:19:12.319 --> 00:19:18.400 is massively popular according to voters and would significantly help 286 00:19:19.000 --> 00:19:22.480 conservatives the GOP if they were to pass it, and 287 00:19:22.559 --> 00:19:26.640 yet a GOP controlled Senate won't do it, right, Senator 288 00:19:26.680 --> 00:19:31.880 John Thune won't make it happen. Now, you have to understand, 289 00:19:32.160 --> 00:19:35.720 I'm not a Republican Party guy. I don't love the Republicans. 290 00:19:36.720 --> 00:19:40.119 But also I understand that I would much rather live 291 00:19:40.119 --> 00:19:44.359 in a state even with an ineffectual Chamber of Commerce 292 00:19:44.400 --> 00:19:48.400 style Republican in office, then I would you know, a 293 00:19:48.440 --> 00:19:54.519 bunch of foreigners, right, the Party of foreigners. It's directionally better. 294 00:19:54.720 --> 00:19:56.960 It doesn't solve all our problems. That doesn't get us 295 00:19:57.000 --> 00:19:59.559 out of this. But I live here, I have a 296 00:19:59.559 --> 00:20:05.079 house family. But even with that, and that's a significant 297 00:20:05.079 --> 00:20:08.200 bit of malfeasance. That is a massive squandering, right that 298 00:20:08.240 --> 00:20:11.759 we're putting all of this political capital into blowing up 299 00:20:11.799 --> 00:20:15.400 girls schools and Iran and you know, giving Benjamin n 300 00:20:15.480 --> 00:20:19.920 Yahoo the sloppy topy and we couldn't get that done again. 301 00:20:20.000 --> 00:20:23.799 We're seeing an instance where instead of reinvesting that power 302 00:20:23.839 --> 00:20:29.079 back into the business, we're squandering. We're blowing it all right, 303 00:20:29.119 --> 00:20:35.839 we're doing a gender reveal seemingly on every block in Iran. 304 00:20:37.160 --> 00:20:43.240 But also right if we look at targets basically like 305 00:20:44.400 --> 00:20:48.839 where are each where's each side set to hurt? It's 306 00:20:48.880 --> 00:20:52.519 actually different than you'd think because I was pretty black 307 00:20:52.559 --> 00:20:56.960 piled about this until I looked into it. Florida hasn't 308 00:20:57.000 --> 00:21:01.839 done any redistricting yet. It's an interesting option, especially because 309 00:21:01.960 --> 00:21:05.079 Ron DeSantis, who I don't like, but seemingly is making 310 00:21:05.160 --> 00:21:07.880 a bid for a Supreme Court off or a Supreme 311 00:21:07.920 --> 00:21:12.079 Court seat. We'll go with that. So that's interesting. That's 312 00:21:12.119 --> 00:21:15.279 a spot to watch. But also we've got a census 313 00:21:15.319 --> 00:21:20.680 coming up, and the trend I mentioned earlier, which is 314 00:21:20.759 --> 00:21:24.519 you know, blue states like New York in California losing people, 315 00:21:24.960 --> 00:21:29.960 states like Texas and Tennessee and Florida gaining. That will 316 00:21:29.960 --> 00:21:34.680 be an interesting rebalance. Now, do I think that that 317 00:21:34.920 --> 00:21:38.880 gets the Republicans out of the absolute disastrous situation they 318 00:21:38.880 --> 00:21:43.440 have put themselves in. No, But it's an interesting variable. Right, 319 00:21:43.440 --> 00:21:46.839 This is a multivariate problem. And while it is in 320 00:21:46.839 --> 00:21:50.559 fact so over for me, I'm not entirely sure how 321 00:21:50.599 --> 00:21:55.599 over it is for everyone else. Also, we have several 322 00:21:55.599 --> 00:21:57.880 things at the Supreme Court which I'm interested to see 323 00:21:57.880 --> 00:22:00.680 how they turn out. Obviously, birthrate citizen ship is one, 324 00:22:01.519 --> 00:22:05.759 but the Voting Rights Act, right, the part that basically 325 00:22:05.799 --> 00:22:12.880 requires race specific representation for you know, you know who 326 00:22:12.960 --> 00:22:15.640 primarily in the Deep South, which is sort of artificially 327 00:22:15.720 --> 00:22:21.599 boosted the Democratic Congress people from the Dirty South, right, 328 00:22:22.680 --> 00:22:26.759 or an interesting thing to keep on there. It also 329 00:22:26.799 --> 00:22:30.480 seems like we're gonna they I shouldn't say we even 330 00:22:30.480 --> 00:22:34.680 if for flexively I want to, Uh, you have the 331 00:22:35.319 --> 00:22:39.000 you know, a GOPC in Maryland going down. It seems 332 00:22:39.039 --> 00:22:42.839 like Ohio is balancing that out, you know, as you 333 00:22:42.839 --> 00:22:46.559 know another one in Missouri. So it's interesting, right, it 334 00:22:46.599 --> 00:22:50.519 is a multivariate You also have one of the other 335 00:22:50.599 --> 00:22:53.480 things that the party in my state has done, so 336 00:22:53.519 --> 00:22:57.119 they basically said that Virginia will only give out electoral 337 00:22:57.119 --> 00:22:59.480 college votes to the winner of the popular vote. I 338 00:22:59.519 --> 00:23:05.480 don't think that has reached a reached a state or 339 00:23:05.559 --> 00:23:07.920 stage excuse me, where it actually matters yet, it's still 340 00:23:08.000 --> 00:23:11.440 just promised. But that is interesting, right, that can majorly 341 00:23:11.559 --> 00:23:16.480 change how how kind of elections shake out in the country. 342 00:23:17.400 --> 00:23:21.799 But the real problem is all of these depend on 343 00:23:22.640 --> 00:23:26.880 the Republican Party wanting to win and understanding how power works, 344 00:23:27.960 --> 00:23:31.240 which I right, We're to be honest, no reason to 345 00:23:31.319 --> 00:23:35.039 expect that change. Obviously, you have the specific examples. You 346 00:23:35.079 --> 00:23:38.400 know I mentioned. You know this case in Indiana, which 347 00:23:38.440 --> 00:23:44.200 is egregious. You know this case in Virginia, the Save 348 00:23:44.279 --> 00:23:48.319 Act over and over again. But these people don't understand 349 00:23:48.359 --> 00:23:51.920 how power works. And Sam Francis is beautiful. Losers has 350 00:23:52.240 --> 00:23:57.799 really never been more justified. It was interesting. You've seen 351 00:23:57.839 --> 00:24:01.480 a good bit of commentary after this. That's like jerrymandering. 352 00:24:01.640 --> 00:24:04.519 Changing the districts is wrong, no matter what. And even 353 00:24:04.559 --> 00:24:07.799 though I opposed this new amendment in Virginia, I oppose 354 00:24:07.880 --> 00:24:10.000 it just as much in Florida. And I'm glad the 355 00:24:10.039 --> 00:24:15.640 Indiana Republicans weren't successful. And look, man, that's a loser mentality, right, 356 00:24:15.960 --> 00:24:18.920 because clearly your enemies don't have that compunction. They don't 357 00:24:18.920 --> 00:24:20.680 feel the same way. They may church it up a 358 00:24:20.720 --> 00:24:22.480 little bit and say this is what we needed to 359 00:24:22.480 --> 00:24:25.839 defeat Donald Trump. We understand how this works. Right, People 360 00:24:25.880 --> 00:24:31.480 don't voluntarily release power, at least they most often don't 361 00:24:31.599 --> 00:24:35.559 like that. I don't hold your breath on that account. 362 00:24:37.680 --> 00:24:40.880 So what are we doing here, guys? Right? What's the 363 00:24:40.920 --> 00:24:44.799 point of this Muldbug and many others and I realized 364 00:24:44.799 --> 00:24:49.640 his name is slightly dirty, is that the GOP really 365 00:24:49.680 --> 00:24:55.240 isn't a real political party. It was Michael Anton and 366 00:24:55.279 --> 00:24:58.279 I found this out through bog beef Right had the 367 00:24:58.279 --> 00:25:03.680 the analogy of the Harlem Glowe Trotters and the Washington Generals. 368 00:25:04.119 --> 00:25:07.160 So for non Americans that Harlem Globe Trotters are like 369 00:25:07.160 --> 00:25:10.880 an exhibition basketball team. It's sort of like a stage. 370 00:25:11.440 --> 00:25:14.720 It's a staged game where guys do trick shots and 371 00:25:15.119 --> 00:25:19.359 you're dunk behind their back. And the dastardly Washington Generals 372 00:25:19.359 --> 00:25:23.200 are the heels, right, they are there to lose. And 373 00:25:23.680 --> 00:25:27.920 it was very similar sort of situation in American politics 374 00:25:28.039 --> 00:25:36.319 that you know, you know that that basically they don't 375 00:25:36.319 --> 00:25:38.759 want to win. You see this in effect, they don't 376 00:25:38.799 --> 00:25:41.480 want to do something it would be nasty or and comfortable, 377 00:25:41.599 --> 00:25:45.079 or have them face any sort of negative social consequences. 378 00:25:45.519 --> 00:25:52.359 They despise it. Also, ultimately they share the same values 379 00:25:52.359 --> 00:25:55.599 as their opposition. Remember earlier I mentioned the fact that 380 00:25:55.680 --> 00:25:58.519 you know, win some real series. The previous gubernatorial candidate 381 00:25:59.119 --> 00:26:03.200 was you know, a proud immigrant woman of color. If 382 00:26:03.240 --> 00:26:05.599 you don't care about that, if you're against identity politics, 383 00:26:05.599 --> 00:26:08.599 what why would you do that? It would be one 384 00:26:08.680 --> 00:26:13.119 thing hypothetically, of course, if she were an amazing candidate, 385 00:26:13.200 --> 00:26:17.160 she's well known, well loved, extremely accomplished, then you could 386 00:26:17.160 --> 00:26:20.799 at least say, well, they're color blind, right, they're consciously 387 00:26:20.839 --> 00:26:25.480 aware of you know, of the right quote unquote ethical 388 00:26:25.519 --> 00:26:28.480 way to source for a job. But that's not the case. 389 00:26:28.559 --> 00:26:30.440 You know, she was a nice enough lady. She's probably 390 00:26:30.480 --> 00:26:34.279 perfectly pleasant, but not a good candidate, And so that 391 00:26:34.400 --> 00:26:38.039 leaves you with, well, why else? Right, was it deliberate sabotage? 392 00:26:38.079 --> 00:26:42.880 Quite possibly? Or was it that you believe that you're 393 00:26:42.960 --> 00:26:46.720 not legitimate, that you don't count as a real political 394 00:26:46.720 --> 00:26:50.400 force unless you can get majority support from minority groups, 395 00:26:50.519 --> 00:26:55.440 which I don't think. You make fun of the Democrats, right, 396 00:26:55.480 --> 00:27:00.160 the DMC for playing that race card. So why are 397 00:27:00.160 --> 00:27:03.519 you doing it unless you actually believe it, unless you 398 00:27:03.559 --> 00:27:08.559 actually think that there's something to it. Also, we have 399 00:27:08.640 --> 00:27:14.039 to understand that the consequences are rationing up. This is 400 00:27:14.279 --> 00:27:17.720 a perfect example. The consequences of losing one election aren't 401 00:27:17.799 --> 00:27:19.680