Speaker 1: Ottawa Senators in action tonight and it should be a
very good one taking on the New York Rangers. Guys,
Monday night hockey. Just one game on the board tonight.
Don't worry. We're here on Puck Time wager Talk TV
Andrew and Carmine to break things down for you as
well as some great stuff coming up on the show.
We'll have some stuff to break down, some stuff to
get to and hopefully you guys will chime in with
us in the comments section afterwards or the live chat
here on the video. I want to give a huge
thanks to all of you that joined me on the
five percent play Saturday night. Nebraska gets the job done.
I told you, hey, look we're low volume with college basketball.
We pick our spots when we see fit. A lot
of you guys joined me on it and we made
some money. Saturday night college basketball March Madness. I hope
you guys all had a great, great weekend. And carm
that Bogo special man you were texting me on the
weekend about the Montreal canadi We had that Bogo special
going on. Still available, people that they want our NHL,
they can get me and you together at a great price.
I had a four and oh NHL weekend with cash
a five percent college basketball ticket, so feeling pretty good
going into today. Man, how are you doing? Doing well?
Speaker 2: Four and one NHL weekend overall? Including a five percent
winner on Saturday with the Saint Louis Blues, And you know,
it's one of those weird ones where the final score
I think was like something like three to one or whatever.
But I never I never felt uncomfortable the whole game
because the Blues are playing extremely well right now. Every
game they are putting in like a maximum effort and
playing well. Whether they win by a goal or they
win by seven, it doesn't matter. It was a straight
money line play at minus one thirty and I'm happy
it got there. So with that said, yeah, we got
a great schedule ahead, guys on today's show, though, what
we're going to do is, obviously there's only one game
tonight Autowe the Rangers, and we'll get to it in
a little bit. We are going to do a couple
NHL Playoff make or Miss segments because you guys ask
for it, so we are going to do it. And
then I've gotten absolutely crazy play from Andrew. But the
more I think about it the more it kind of
makes a little sense to because Andrew, I like hedgeable bets,
and it's all I'm going to say, hedgeable bets. I
put them in and then if it is a good
amount later on that I can headge out on I
do it. If not, I write it out. But with
what I said, no, the bogo definitely Montreal Canadians where
they get seven goals from.
Speaker 1: You know what I mean.
Speaker 2: And then like last night's game, the Sabers lose no
t but pick up seven of eight points on this
road trip. The Savers, playing extremely well right now now,
gave up a power play goal at the end, unfortunately
to force the overtime, and then they lose it in overtime.
But I gave up. I had a client play on
the over in that game, and a couple a couple
of my friends are like, how do you take an
over in a Sabers game in which they've only allowed
one goal in three games on the road? I go,
because it sets up perfectly for to be an over
against Anaheim and six six fight final. It doesn't get
any better, did you? Oh? Where you go?
Speaker 1: There's a sweat trader trader and yesterday, I had the
Ducks and I had the Flames, and I'm watching March Madness.
So I'm going back and forth with all the games
that I'm on, and it's almost like karma got me
for not being loyal to the games I was supposed
to watch. The Flames are up three to one, the
Ducks are up four to two. They both go to
overtime four to two and three to one. I'm like,
are you gotta be kidding me? And and obviously the
Sabers went went up, took the lead from from the Ducks.
H So you know, we can plain a lot on
the show about losing in three on three overtime. So
it felt pretty good yesterday to get some some overtime winners.
But you know what's funny, car I used to talk
about goaltending is not meaning much to me in the
past few weeks in the show, a goaltending has meant
a lot. And I've been using different websites to break
down these goalie stats. How big of a drop off
is it from Vassilevsky to Jonas Johansson like that guy,
that guy whenever he starts, I don't care how good
Tampa Bay's roster is that guy is one of the
worst goalies in the league, Like he gives up two
goals every year.
Speaker 2: Say the worst goalie you might with. The analytics might
support you, but you have a Tampa team that that
does play a lot sort of like I used a
phrase in in soccer, a forward foot sort of soccer
where you're always on the attack. In Tampa teams that
way and sometimes you leave the back end a little open.
Vasilewski is a good goalie to have back there when
you do. He makes some great saves, so you got
to give him a sort of kudos on that. But
some honestly, Andrew like with some of these goalies, like
yesterday Vegas, if not for Casey the Smith in the
third period and for pretty much the last thirty five
minutes of that game, if not for Casey the Smith,
the Vegas Golden Knights would have blown the Dallas Stars
out of the building. And I had Dallas Stars. He
he made save after say Vegas was all over him.
It was like a power play for twenty minutes for
the Vegas Golden Knights. For a team on the second
of a back to back losing four to one against
Nashville the night before Man they skated and they brought it.
So kudos to the to the Knights, and we see
some gold like that Villy whoso end goal yesterday for Anaheim.
They had to score six goals with Villy and net
Billy is Johnny Detroit's favorite goalie for when he was
here in Detroit. I think he offered to drive him
to the airport and never come back when he played
for the Red Wings. But with that said, I am
going to watch the Red Wings and the Buffalo Sabers
on Friday, so I will not be on Friday show,
but I will be doing a live six and sixty
either from Buffalo or wherever I am at the time
that the show goes live. Six and sixty goes five
and one. This past weekend, the aforementioned Detroit Red Wings
bloye late third period lead and lose to the Boston Bruins.
That was the only loss in the six and sixty
nineteen and five. The last four weeks is the six
and sixty. If you've been following, you've been making money.
If you've been fading, you probably have my face on
a dartboard somewhere. With that, it's what it is man
Andrew speaking of the aforementioned Detroit Red Wings, Let's discuss
whether the Detroit Red Wings make the NHL Playoffs, and
then we will get to Ottawa and the Rangers, along
with a Ralph Michaels fade or follow stats. But there
you have it. Andrew minus one forty on the s
plus one fifteen on the know they play Ottawa. I
believe that's tomorrow night. I think yes, on the second
of and Ottawa will be on the second of a
back to back. Then they play the Sabers in Buffalo.
Philadelphia at home. Little it's kind of a weird home away,
home away kind of schedule for him, but it's East
Coast stuff, so it's not too bad in the travel
Pittsburgh away, Philadelphia away. So they stay in Pennsylvania for
a couple of days, play the New York Rangers, who
may or may not have spit bit to use a
horse racene phrase, the Minnesota Wild at home, the hot
Columbus Blue Jackets that ran into a wall called Soroken yesterday,
Philadelphia Flyers, New Jersey Devil's a couple of home games
there before they head to the Sunshine State to finish
it off against Tampa and Florida. Florida has already started
their vacation, but at that point, even though they started
a couple of weeks ago, Tampa might still be playing
for something, Andrew, because the Atlantic Division probably will go
down to the final week before it's settled. Give me
your thoughts on this one.
Speaker 1: Well, I think when it comes to these type of bets,
and we're going to talk about a couple of them today,
is you're not just we've talked about, of course a
couple throughout the past week or two on the show.
You're not just talking about one team to make or miss.
You're talking about other teams around them to make or miss,
which is what I find the most interesting. Right Like,
you look at the New York Islanders and the way
thing is that things have set up now the Columbus
Blue Jackets deep frogged the New York Islanders. So now
the Columbus Bluejackets ranked number third in the Metropolitan Division.
So with that happening, you know they've got themselves set
where they're thinking, Okay, you know this New York Islanders team,
they're a wild card team or nothing. Because I think
Columbus is probably going to stay in that spot. So
now the two wild card teams being the Boston Bruins
and the New York Islanders. So you know, you've pretty
much have the Red Wings, the Islanders, and the Bruins
battling it out. A big win for my Canadians on
Saturday night, which they needed over those aforementioned New York Islanders.
So I think that when you look at this team,
especially with the teams around them, like the New York
Islanders have the third toughest schedule remaining in the NHL season,
I think it just sets up for if if the
Red Wings get the job done against the teams they
should beat, then they're on their way to the playoff spot.
And you know, at first I was fading this team
because they lost Confer and they lost Larkin. But you know,
getting one of those guys back and now having a
Larkin kind of skating around and getting ready to go
here soon. When I see the Devils on there, when
I see Philadelphia on there, even though they're playing a
bit better, you know, I think this sets up for
an opportunity for them to win out and that's all
they have to do. So at minus one point, I'm
taking the yes. But Caren, this is as much to
me as a spot here where the New York Islanders
are not safe right now in a playoff position. And
you know, we've talked about this. It's not a fresh thing.
It's not a new thing with the format for the
NHL playoffs the way it works. But man, I miss
the one versus eight so bad because it makes it
so interesting for us the way we formulate how things work.
And we're going to get to the Western Conference in
a little while here. But I mean, when you look
at things with that Metropolitan Division, so you've got Columbus
sitting on eighty five points, Detroit sitting on eighty four,
so they could leap frog Columbus and end up in
that third spot in the division, or they could take
over the New York Islanders and then have that last
spot in the wild card spot. So it's incredibly close
that it's worth noting as well. The Islanders have played
seventy one games. The Red Wings have played seventy games,
so they're only behind one point and they've played one
less game than them.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Andrew, this this conference is unbelievable, Like I'm enjoying it.
Some teams are in playoff hockey mode at the moment.
Obviously the Ottawa Senators that we're going to talk about
in a couple of minutes.
Speaker 1: Carm I think I lost you. I can't hear you.
Carm I think I lost your cart. I can't hear you.
All Right, there we go. I got you. Oh, I
got you. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Every once in a while it dips out. But the
Philadelphia has picked up four wins in their last five,
three of them win to overtime. Four games went overtime,
they won three. They lost their Coumbus Blue Jackets in
ot playing extremely good hockey, and they're right back. They're
in the mix as well too. It is one of
those ones where in order for one of those teams
kind of like in Ottawa of a Washington of Philadelphia,
that they are in all likelihood if they have like
let's say, eleven games left, they're gonna have to win
like eight of them. And that is just to determine
if they might get a wild card spot, because still
the teams in front of them could go five hundred
and you don't make it in well, left themselves with
a lot to do. We're going to discuss them in
a second. But this, this division or this conference is unbelievable.
And yeah, if we had the one versus eight to
versus seven matchups, it would be phenomenal. Like can you
imagine Carolina, you finish first and you get rewarded by
playing the New York Islanders with soroken goal or Ottawa
Senators who have won like, you know, eighteen of nineteen,
let's say by that point, or the Columbus Blue Jackets,
who are who've been fantastic under Rick Bonus. Like when
you lose a game while only allowing a goal, it's
it's one of those ones where I feel like it's
a loss, but is it really like a loss in
the sense of team did not play well, they just
ran into the wall that is Eli Sarrokin. So absolutely,
it's going to be a phenomenal race. I kind of
hope a lot of this stuff gets settled. Prior to
me leaving to go away for the last week. I
figured the last week of the regular season would be
the great time to get my wife away for a
week before it becomes the NHL playoffs and the World
Cup of Soccer for me and then and baseball as
well too, which I am going to be heavily on
as well to MLP and then starting this all over
again with football season, college, NFL and stuff. So I
picked the one week and the league does not agree
with me. They just spit it back in my face. Andrew,
So you're going with yes on the Detroit Red Wings. Andrew,
let me ask you this question and then we'll go
to the first game or the only game on tonight's card.
I am going to Detroit. I'm going to Buffalo to
watch the Detroit game with Johnny from one of the
owners from Wager Talk, his lovely wife Paula, and my
buddy JENNI you've met my buddy Joe. What odds would
you put on me sneaking in an octopus and toss
it in on the ice after the Sabers victory?
Speaker 1: But I I.
Speaker 2: Put like a little Sabers jersey on that octopus too.
Speaker 1: I think whatever odds I bet on that happening, I
have to bet equally on how many beers are consumed
at the game in order to have the courage to
do that. But knowing you, I don't know, do you
have a seafood market you're gonna find before you go
to the game. It's an octopus. Get into Maybe I'll
give you minus one. I'll give you the same odds
as the Red Wings minus one forty to get it there.
Speaker 2: H that's gonna steam. I'm arriving early on Friday in Buffalo,
checking into the hotel and end meeting. We're all going
to meet up and have some beers and wings and
burgers and stuff before the game. So that I'm going
to guess that one up to about one eighty five.
We'll know as the week goes, but we'll try and
get it done. Well. That said, Andrew, we got another
make or miss, but we're going to get to that
at the end. I want to talk about tonight's game obviously,
so let's bring it up. Okay, Andrew, here's more than
with this game tonight, and let me just write down
this number here. Ottawa was minus one ninety one. The
New York Rangers are plus one fifty five. Total sits
here at six shasterkins confirmed for the New York Rangers tonight.
Uh Will, it'll likely be all mark the world and
I mean the world is going to be on the
Autawa Senators tonight because there is absolutely no reason to
bet the Rangers, even though they won five of six
before this four game losing streak, and I couldn't figure
out why they were even winning games the world, there
is not a single person who wants to take the
New York Rangers tight and all the money seems to
be going on Ottawa, and that line could hit minus
two hundred to ten by game time. Can I be
the contrarian and just say, like the game that everyone
is on, I want to or the team that everyone's on,
I want to be on the other side. What are
your thoughts on this one?
Speaker 1: Look, I agree with you. I's it makes it weirder
because it's only one game of the day and I
feel like that's what is tougher for us because if
you look at the analytics, if you look at the
defensive numbers, if you look at even the goaltending numbers,
if you look at the rest factor, if you look
at the urgency level, pretty much everything in this game
comes down to the Ottawa Senators. Now, the one thing
I will say, and we can't compare the Rangers and
the Islanders, but back to backs don't always mean a
team is going to struggle. They do not always mean
that because we saw that with the New York Islanders
right yesterday, Karen, who would have thought the New York
Islanders would bounce back after what we saw from them.
But after all of me saying that, Ralph Michaels comes
in here and says, oh yeah, the Rangers are one
to ten with no rest, and the Senators are eight
and two against the team with no rest. So it's
like every single thing adds up to the Ottawa Senators
getting the job done again one and ten with no rest.
I mean, this is one of those things here, Karen,
where I've said it to you down the stretch about
keeping it simple, stupid, and when you look at things
right now Outawa, right now, four point two three expected
goals per game, ten point six high danger attempts per game.
This is over the last five game sample size. I mean, look,
and here's the thing too, the last thing I'll say
to you. They set things up for Shastarkin to play
a second half of back to back. We've been seeing
that a lot more lately. Right it's just this team
right now averaging four point three eight expected goals against
per game four point three, So if Shasterarkin doesn't stand
on his head, this team is absolutely screwed. I rest
my case.
Speaker 2: It can happen. Srokean did it yesterday. But you look
look at those numbers, and this is from Ralph Michael's
on the Fade or Follow stats that we have created.
Any home dog of plus one twenty five or higher
with no rest versus arrested team is forty one and
one hundred and twenty four minus thirty one point five roi.
And if it's game sixty year later, which it is,
it's seven and thirty five fifty seven minus fifty seven
ro Man. That is like buying like those dogie coins
from Elong Musk where he just pumps it, dumps it
and you lose all your money because you got in
late Rangers one in ten no rest. But look at
Ottawa three and zero against a team with no rest
and sixteen sixteen to five is the combined score of
those three games. Absolutely remarkable number there, Andrew it is.
But it is a weird thing. It's just I'm telling you,
and I'm likely going to be wrong on this. But
with everyone on the New York Range, sorry the Ottawa
Senators tonight, you know I mean, and people are saying,
look in the chat, they're cooked. Sroken's got to stand
on his head. It's like you said, we have seen
crazier things happen in the NHL, you know. I mean
the New York Rangers went five games ago I think
it was, went into Minnesota and even though though the
Wild weren't playing the greatest, they went on the road
into Minnesota and dominated the game start to finish and
winning four to two. Then they come home and they're like,
they've lost four straight games, and we're like, Okay, the
old Rangers are back. It is the NHL has been
if nothing else, Andrew a bizarro NHL season. I am
not trying to convince anybody to take the New York
Rangers tonight. It is not going to be a client
play on the New York Rangers tonight. But men, I'm
gonna sit back watch this game, and I would not
be surprised if the New York Rangers make this a
game tonight. So we shall see. So we're a mono
amano on this one. Right, You're on the Sands, I'm
on the Rangers.
Speaker 1: The only thing I've gotten this game here, karma is
a player prop because I feel the exact same way
as you. So I'm not on the sense quite yet
because of the same things that you're saying. Man, when
I logged on with you before with the show, I'm like,
you know, it feels pretty easy. Feels like we could
all make some money on the Ottawa Senators. And you
know what's cool is that there's teams that just love
to play spoiler right, teams that just want to they
want to cause problems down the stretch. And you know,
part of me was looking at maybe some overs, and
part of me is looking at some team totals or
team total under for the Rangers because of all mark
and such. But when you look at this, like this
game and the goaltending battle right now, and you talk
about just throak and having to stand on his head,
it's like one of those things for Ottawa. It's not
even just their offense has been playing so well. It's
their defense has been playing well. They're limiting shots, but
a lot of the shots they get are from the outside.
So it's very interesting to me looking at this one here.
My question is, calm from you, how do people how
do people get the best price they possibly can if
they want to take the Ottawa Senators, Because That's what
I think is probably the most using for teams right now.
Speaker 2: I say I say this earlier, I stated that Ottawa
everyone's betting Ottawa. Outawa's going to continue to take the money,
and as they should because they're the better team. So
this is the first of a back to back for
the Ottawa Senators, right, So you have the Detroit Red
Wings tomorrow night. They're in Detroit, a much more important
game in the grand scope of things for Ottawa. Both
games are important. Yeah, but let's look at it from
a goalie perspective. We know skin is starting. From a
goalie perspective, you have all mark. You're not going to
start in both games. You have the backup, is what
James Rymer? Do you start James Rymer tonight? If you
if they James Reimer comes off the ice first at
the morning skate, then people were like, oh, it's not
all marketing goal it is James Rymer. Does the confidence
level go down a little bit with betters and maybe
we see that one ninety one ninety two turn into
like a one eighty. So do you wait on the
starting goalie for the Ottawa Senators only not to get
you off the bet only to get you a better number,
because again it's about saving vig. If if this is
the high end of the number with all Mark in it,
is there a lower end with James Rymer at one
eighty maybe one seventy five, where you say I save
sixteen cents injuice by waiting, and long term you say
fifteen cents on any bet you're going to make money
long term by saving vig. What do you do?
Speaker 1: I think you have to be karm I think you
have to be when you when you look at it,
you have to be looking at different ways to make money,
and at that way is waiting. Let's be real here,
Allmark is better than Rhymer. I don't think it's by
a huge crazy margin in the last like twenty games,
but on the season, when you look at him, I
think this is a no doubter. If people come out
and they're making their bets on Ottawa and they're like,
holy shit, I didn't know Rymer was playing and you
should have listened to Karmine on puck time. Then you
wait until six or seven o'clock to pull the trigger
on that. But yeah, this is all I've got here
for us, Karmen. This one Igor Shusterken over twenty six
and a half saves. That's minus one twenty. We do
have one confirmed goalie in this game. Of course, as
you mentioned, we're waiting to hear the goaltending confirmation numbers
for the Ottawa Senators. But I do think that when
you look at this Ottawa Senators team, as much as
they've been shot suppressing, they've also been creating chances offensively.
Their offensive numbers just look fantastic lately. And as much
as I'm joking around saying that Shasterkin's going to have
to stand on his head, the reason why I'm saying
that is because they're just giving up so many chances.
Like the narrative coming into this game is that it's
you know, it's your goalie makes thirty plus saves or
bust for this New York Rangers team. That's really the
way I see it here, Karen. They're going to face trouble,
They're going to face and motivated Ottawa team. And if
what you were talking about a few moments ago about
this game being a sketchy game and it can Rangers
play spoiler, you and I both know if they play spoiler,
it's probably not because the game finished five to four, right,
It's probably because Shasterkin played amazing and the game was
three to two in the third period. It's kind of
the way I see it, So igor start getting over
twenty six and a half saves. That's the consensus number
at most books. Shop around for the best price you can.
Speaker 2: Can you hear me, Andrew?
Speaker 1: I got you to have lost?
Speaker 2: Okay? Anytime I change windows, I just wanted to change
browsers to check some any news on who the starting
goalie might be. But I missed the end of I
can see that the Shustirkin saves prop going over because
Otto was gonna bring it, and that gets even That
gets even better. I think if it's a closer game
because or if the Rangers get ahead, because you know,
Otto was just not gonna give in. So we're seeing
a great season from them. But I'm gonna tell you
because we saw it last year, and we saw it
the year before, and again, I'm not trying to make
a case for the New York Rangers tonight at all.
I am just saying, because there's one game on the board,
you don't necessarily have to go nuts and play it.
I think a lot of people wait to make their
bets later on because they have action on something else
earlier on. And this is the whole thing about bankroll
management is if your bank roll's big enough, or you
know what I mean, or you're practicing proper bankroll management,
you can put the betting when you're supposed to put
it in and not lose any value some people. It
is a perfect example. It is like March Madness. You
have a team that's minus ten and you're like, well,
I'm going to bet the earlier games because this game
doesn't go off until you know, ten o'clock at night.
And then they're eleven and a half and they're like, well,
it was going to take them at ten, I might
as well take them at eleven and a half. You're
getting a worse price by waiting. You put it in
when you think the number has its value. But to
the point I was trying to make before I went
off on that narrative is not you know, last year
and the year before, I watched the Buffalo Sabers as
plus two fifty plus three hundred favorites late in the season,
the last twenty games or less win games. We saw
the Chicago Blackhawks going to Pittsburgh where the Penguins needed
to win the final game of the regular season Andrew
if you remember, to make the playoffs, and Chicago beat
them as a monster dog. So it happens. What happens
on the ice, you just don't know sometimes, and we're
the ones stuck trying to make a decision where we
either look good or we have egg on our face.
So I'm going to try and avoid the egg on
the face. I am not advocating betting the New York
Rangers tonight, but you might want to. This is one
of those ones where you might want to wait for
the if you like the Ottawa centers on the starting
goalie because it can't go much higher, but it can't
go lower. The price based on the fact that I
think it would be rhymer and goal tonight and all
mark against the Detroit Red Wings tomorrow, I think you
want your best goalie when you're facing a team that
you're trying to catch to make the NHL playoffs.
Speaker 1: And it's worth noting too. Like from the offensive perspective
for New York, a lot of my numbers say they're
overachieving offensively, like the goals they're scoring versus expected goals
like they could plummet. So the goalie being in for
Ottawa is a huge factor if you like New York
and if you like Ottawa, as you said, Karen, people
might as well just wait because if Raymer gets put
in that minus one ninety, it's not going to get
any higher. It's just going to get lower probably here.
So we'll see what happens with that. But I'm very
curious what happens here with this game as far as
the total is concerned, because I do think that New
York is overachieving offensively, but I also think that they're
they're relying so much on just Thirken that I very
well could see like a four to two game something
like that. And you know, with the total the way
it is, we don't really know where that's going to
get us four to three for ever, So I would
not be shocked, put it this way, to see the
first period go under one and a half. Because New
York can't beat Ottawa in a five to four game.
I don't believe they can. I don't think if it's
a race to four, race to five wins, the New
York is gonna play And you know, one thing funny
about these back to backs is I've talked about it
a lot this year. When I first started handicapping hockey,
it used to be an automatic bet to the over
with back to backs, like, oh, back to back, this
team's going to be tired now, a lot of back
to backs. What was the score yesterday, Caren with that
back to back? One? Nothing? Won nothing after they lost
seven to three the Islanders. Right, So sometimes that stuff happens.
Speaker 2: Andrew, what's the price on Mika Sabanda Jade scoring a
goal tonight? Does anybody know? Look, I'm looking for it.
Speaker 1: At you. What's one ninety five and I can give
you twelve to one for the first goal of the game.
Speaker 2: All right, Okay, I won't take the first goalie game,
but I'll take me one to ninety five on the
power play when Brady destruct access stupid penalty. Andrew, let's
switch to the Western Conference with a make or miss
from you, and we are going to talk the Nashville Predators,
fresh off a victory, oops, wrong one, let's get rid
of that one. Wherever that one went. We are going
to talk the Nashville Predators. I'll add it to the
stage there, fresh off at victory over the Vegas Golden Knights,
Andrew plus one point fifteen to make the playoffs, minus
one thirty five to miss Santos. The Devil's a couple
teams dead in the water, Montreal Canadians team in the
playoffs Tampa. Then a weird schedule they go. They head
to the West Coast for them, of course, and it's
the Kings, the Sharks, the Kings, Anaheim. Two games against
the Kings in La, then Utah, five game road trip
return home based Minnesota, San Jose, and Anaheim finish off
with three games on home ice. Yes or no? And
why Yeah?
Speaker 1: We had some people in the chat saying, Hey, talk
about this team a little bit more, talk about some
other teams a bit more. And I think that there's
a time and a place where you can almost sell
high on a team, and I think that we're selling
at the best possible point we can. If you would
have given me this bet to make KRM last week
or two weeks ago, the price would have been way different.
You're getting them. As everybody starts to get excited about
this team, I want to go against them. And I've
already talked on the show about the La Kings making
the playoffs. According to most websites, as far as strength
of schedule is concerned, the Los Angeles Kings have the
most faiavorable schedule remaining in the NHL, so that benefits
them in their bid to making the postseason. And of
course you look at the teams around them. With the
Seattle Kraken, that team has fallen off in a big way.
And the Nashville Predators are tipped my cap for them,
you know, getting the job done a little bit here,
but I don't think they're going to be able to
keep it going. And a lot of that has to
do with their goaltending saving their butt every night, and
I just don't think that's something you can sustain down
the stretch. So when I look at the no at
minus one thirty five, yes we're laying shock, but this
is chalk that's worth laying. Look at the March Madness
on Friday night, favorites went sixteen to zero. It's okay
to bet favorites sometimes, guys, And this minus one thirty
five I think is a reasonable number. So when you
look at the Pacific Division right now and the way
things stack up, we'll talk about that in a second Ducks, Knights,
Oilers and the Central Avalanche Stars and wild has been
solidified forever. Fortunately for them, Karen. They've got no shot
obviously at being one of those top three teams. So
they're just worrying about being a wild card team. And
I don't think the wild card is going to be
a home for them. So and yeah, Joe Vonnie says,
what make David said on Saturday night. Hilarious quote from
McDavid the pillow fight Pacific. McDavid had some great quotes
on Saturday.
Speaker 2: Actually, yeah, well we should probably have a make or
miss on the Edmonton Oiters because they aren't that far
off of missing the playoffs as well too. Andrew. You know,
I look at this and I see your point about
the excitement and what have you. But I look at
the schedule and here's a few things that I think about.
They have twelve games left, and I believe that with
them being in a playoffs part at the moment, if
they were to go eight and four the rest of
the way, which for the way these teams are playing
in the Pacific, sorry, in the Western Conference, the ones
that are fighting for a spot right now, eight and
four is like gold. It is like sixty six percent.
So where do you find eight wins here? So let
me go through this. San Jose Sharks at home. I
give that a win. New Jersey Devils. That's win number two.
They play Montreal and Tampa Bay. So if they have
the momentum going and they have Montreal coming in, that
could be win number three. But I think one of
the two games against either Montreal or Tampa Bay they win.
So three wins. After four, you start the road trip
off on the West Coast, even though it's at Hey.
They play in Tampa Bay. You're gonna play the Kings twice.
I have a feeling they're gonna they have to win
at least one of those two. They could win them
both because the Kings just don't seem to be impressing
me at the moment. So we are now at five
mixed in between. I think the Sharks have spit the bit.
There's six in Hannhe'm a loss, in Utah a loss.
Come home, play Minnesota, San Jose and Anaheim, and they
have to win two of those three games, and I
think they can do it. That's eight wins. Seven wins
might be enough to get him in.
Speaker 1: Well, like you said, Car, the thing is we're asking
some of these teams like when when you what did
you always say about must win does not mean will win? Right, No,
if a team puts themselves in a situation, they're there
for a reason.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just it's one of those ones. Teams. East
Eastern Conference teams going to the West Coast have done
extremely well. Nashville is obviously a West Western Conference team.
Speaker 1: But.
Speaker 2: Going to those games that are in like San Jose,
Anaheim and La having been killer they were earlier in
the season when the Sharks were playing well, and we're
right there and you know, I mean, and you can
make a case that, hey, the Sharks are still there,
but they're not winning games right now at the moment.
So it is tough to put any kind of confidence
in the Sharks. The Ducks, you know, they they'll surprise you.
They'll lose seven to Utah and then go to Utah
and play a masterful game and beat them four to one,
a game in which I said, is you know I
liked Utah? Sorry, I liked and I'm I said they
were a live dog on Friday. They were going to
go in there and win and they did it, so
it was only plus one ten. But I'll take money
on a bet any point. Now. That's where we stand
on this one, Andrew.
Speaker 1: This one is.
Speaker 2: Completely wild to me. But I see your point on
this one. So Andrew, tell us why you like the
Anaheim Ducksteen to one. I need you look a little
different there.
Speaker 1: It's okay, Spiffy. I should have worn that jacket today.
It would have looked cool if I wore the same outfit.
That would have been nice.
Speaker 2: The Ducks quack quack eighteen to one to win the
Western Conference.
Speaker 1: Quack quack quack, the Anaheim Ducks. I want to read
something out to you guys before I mentioned this pick.
This is the each division's cumulative goal differential on the season,
and I sent this into our puck time group for
all the hockey handicappers. I just could not believe this
last night when I saw this carm The Atlantic Division,
who we know has been so great this year, plus
one oh four accumulative goal plus a minus differential, Metropolitan
plus thirty eight, the Central with Colorado and Minnesota, and
Dallas at plus fifty nine. Here's the bombshell for you guys.
The accumulated goal differential for the Pacific Division is minus
two hundred and one, minus two to oh one for
the accumulative goal differential for that division. So what does
that mean? The division has been garbage, is what it means.
Karm And I'll tell you this is one of those
divisions that you look at and you think, Okay, if
Anaheim finished as the top spot, they're going to get
a wild card team. And unlike what we were talking
about on the show a few moments ago, the wild
card teams in the West, I would say, are going
to be a little bit easier for the top dogs
to beat than in the East. You were talking about
it with the with the Eastern Conference. You know, looking
at some of those wild card teams in the East,
you could be facing an Ilias Sarrokan and a New
York Islanders team playing well, a Boston Bruins team playing well,
a Detroit Red Wings team playing well. Those teams you
don't really want to play though. But when I'm talking
about the LA Kings or the Nashville Predators or some
of these teams in the West, Utah Mammoth, I feel
like Anaheim can take care of those teams, and Colorado
can definitely take care of those teams. So eighteen to one,
not even to win the Stanley Cup, to win the
Western Conference on the Anaheim Ducks. I love this wager
because of how weak the Pacific Division has been. They're
going to win their division, They're going to play a
wildcard team in round one, They're going to win a
playoff series and win round one, and then all of
a sudden, you're going up against probably an Edmonton in
round two. You're going into that with an eighteen to
one ticket. If you win that game, that series against
an injured and a team that lacks a lot of
depth and bad goaltending and bad defense, you're going into
the Western Conference finals with an eighteen to one ticket.
And I'll make it very clear, karm I would not
be playing this ticket if it was not for the
format of the NHL playoffs. If it was one versus eight,
two versus seven, three versus six, I would not be
playing this. But because of the way this format works out,
they're gonna beat a wild card team and they're gonna
play a Pacific Division opponent that I just don't think
is very good. If we look at things on paper,
Vegas has not had a great year, and we both
know Edmonton has not had a great year. So as
much as I've been talking about Edmonton and value on
them at twelve to thirteen to one, and I still
think there is for them to win the Stanley Cup,
eighteen to one for a conference bet, I think is
a pretty good price.
Speaker 2: Yeah it is. It is a great crazy bet, So
go go go Ducks. As I mentioned before, ice wise,
you know, you look at it and eighteen to one
becomes a hedgeable bet. Anything under ten to one is
an hedgeable bet. So let's take the premise that we
know in the Central that of those the top three
teams right now in the league, one of them is
going to be gone after the first round, Minnesota or
the Dallas Stars unless Dallas somehow catches Colorado. Landeskog is
back and and they looked pretty good on the weekend.
So likely Dallas or sorry Dallas or Minnesota is gone.
You look at if if Anaheim wins the division, and
let's give out the hypothetical that it is Edmonton and
the Vegas Golden Knights finishing second and third in the Pacific,
one of those teams is gone. So you're getting rid
of some firepower teams that have playoff experience that do
extremely well gone in the first round, and the path
becomes a little bit bigger or a little bit better
for the You just you see who the matchup is.
They're not going to face Colorado until the conference until
the conference finals. If they were to make it that
far in the conference finals against Colorado with Colorado having
home ice, Colorado is going to be probably about minus
three hundred to three point fifty to win the series.
You're now having minus three fifty that you can hedge
against a plus eighteen hundred, and that is where you
decide what you want to do.
Speaker 1: So ye edgible bets conference bet right edgible bets have.
Speaker 2: To be something that are plus fifteen hundred or fifteen
to one or more. I do it a lot with
soccer bets, and I'll let mys know, guys, I'm not hedging,
but if you want to hedge, here's the hedge and
how you're supposed to take it. And some take the advice,
some ride it out and and we end up winning.
So that's all I say. And trew the bogo bogo
for you, and I I believe is still Live. What
do you have played before we close out this show?
Tomorrow's five dollars customer appreciation. We have Don Buster on
the show tomorrow. We have Brian Leonard on the show tomorrow.
We're gonna have an action packed show going for you guys.
Press is away this week. He will not be on
any of the shows. I don't know if that's a
good thing or bad thing for you guys, but he
will not be here on the show. But what is
your week shaping up like? In the NHL?
Speaker 1: Well, as far as the NHL is concerned, tomorrow is
a massive, massive slate. I'm waiting for numbers to come out.
The team totals have gone pretty good lately, and you know,
I hit some bumps in the road, Karen, with the
team totals. I needed teams to get to four or
five and they were landing on two or three. I'm
looking at a big play tomorrow, and I'm looking at
a team total play. But as I mentioned, the college
basketball five percent went really well on Saturday night, and
I'm looking at hopefully one team that's gonna be a
little bit underappreciated the market. We're gonna look at betting
on Wednesday. So some best bets coming this week, no
doubt about it. Some best bets coming this week. And
that package I mentioned to you guys on the show
on Friday, it's going to be up to this afternoon.
It's gonna be a package for baseball and CFL. We
were number one last year at the website with CFL betting.
The props were great, the sides were great, the totals
were great, and as far as MLB is concerned, I
ended last year on a plus twenty five unit run
with best bets. I found okarm I didn't need to
release two percent plays. Those were not winning. The four
percent and five percent were crushing it. So I learned
just keep it small, but cash those four percent and
five percent tickets. So we got a big play NHL tomorrow.
If I get the right number college basketball on Wednesday,
I'm hoping, and I think when I look at this board,
we should have a lot of play because Thursday. The
best part about days like this, With just one one game,
you get an early start on handicapping the Tuesday slate.
So even though we broke down the Ottawa game, we
already get a bunch of time. So to break down
the Tuesday game. So the Bogo special. I love it
because you and I we are like never head to HEADCARM.
It's great. We see the board differently, we bet different games.
You guys can get that bogo if you want to
get our hockey, go to our pages WT Dot Buzz,
Backslash CB or backslash AM to get both of us
for three days all sports. Or you can get that
great deal KARM six days all access for the price
of three.
Speaker 2: Absolutely great deal. I'm going to have this afternoon. The
lines will come out for the NHL. You know, I
have my own lines for each and every game, and
then I just compare them with the lines as they
come out and see where the value lies. And I've
got the schedule mapped out, so I know the games
I want to take if I can get the right number.
But I'll have customer appreciation plays up. If something really
stands out as a five percent play, I will have
it up. But I know I do have one for
Thursday that I really do like, so we shall see
how that goes. A couple mentions in the chat, which
I'll go through Andrew real quickly. I banned the guy
in the comments section stupid comments like calling people special
needs people? How bad is your life? How bad is
your life, dude, that you need to make comments about
calling people special needs people? Like seriously, wake up and
try and be a better version of yourself each and
every morning. And AOD yes, dude, I'm looking forward to
Thursday's Thursday's World Cup qualifying. I'm gonna have some plays up. Man, Italy,
What the hell, man, are you going to qualify for
a World Cup? It is unbelievable, the Italian team two
straight World Cups where they've missed. I have tickets for
the first game Canada versus the European qualifier, which would
be Italy if they beat Northern Ireland on Thursday and
then beat the winner of Wales and Bosnia on Sunday.
I believe that the game is on Sunday, so we
shall we shall see. Rhymer is confirmed, so there you go.
We'll see if there is a drop in price there.
But guys take advantage of that Bogo package, Andrew, I'm
seeing some price drops already. Certain it down to one
seventy seven, super Book down to one seventy five MGM,
down to one seventy.
Speaker 1: Nobody likes rhymer. Nobody likes rhymer.
Speaker 2: Let's see if the Ottawa Senators like rhymer or not
as well? To a couple we all need, Yeah, a
couple of quick little notes, Andrew. And sometimes it's it's
hockey related, but not hockey related, Jesse Pearce. UH thoughts
go out to their family her she's a hockey hockey
writer and I think UH she's involved in UH for
one of the teams, and her and her three kids
passed away in a house fire. So are you know
our thoughts and prayers to her and UH and the
family and of course the the other thing, Andrew, us
being Canadian, there was ah a tragedy today at LaGuardia,
or last night or early this morning LaGuardia with an
Air Canada plane hitting a fire truck of all things,
and pilot and co pilot both died. Forty people taken
to the hospital with serious injuries, but all are expected
to survive. Thoughts and prayers are with them as well too, Andrew.
That's pretty much it. Should we call this off because
if jor DANII is here, you know what you would say,
how the hell did you guys spend fifty two minutes
on one game.
Speaker 1: Yes, well, we talk about one game, carn But tomorrow
we've got Toronto, Boston, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Montreal, Chicago, New York, Seattle, Florida, Ottawa, Detroit, Columbus, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Tampa, Bay, Vegas, Winnipeg, Washington,
Saint Louis, New Jersey, Dallas, A Jose. We've also got La, Calgary, Edmonton, Utah,
Anaheim and Vancouver. I feel like the guy on price
is right. With all that being said, there's a ton
of games on Tuesday. We are back tomorrow, same time,
same place here on puck time. Thanks for watching, guys,
best of luck, we'll see you next time.