WEBVTT 1 00:00:03.399 --> 00:00:07.719 Welcome to Bedtime Astronomy. Explore the wonders of the cosmos 2 00:00:07.759 --> 00:00:12.279 with our soothing Bedtime Astronomie podcast. Each episode offers a 3 00:00:12.359 --> 00:00:16.320 gentle journey through the stars, planets, and beyond, perfect for 4 00:00:16.399 --> 00:00:20.239 unwinding after a long day. Let's travel through the mysteries 5 00:00:20.239 --> 00:00:22.440 of the universe as you drift off into a peaceful 6 00:00:22.480 --> 00:00:23.800 slumber under the night sky. 7 00:00:27.039 --> 00:00:31.559 Sometime in the next ten years, the most expensive machine 8 00:00:31.600 --> 00:00:34.320 ever built by humanity is going to be deliberately pushed 9 00:00:34.320 --> 00:00:34.880 out of the sky. 10 00:00:35.159 --> 00:00:37.479 It really is wild to think about, right. 11 00:00:37.280 --> 00:00:39.119 I mean, I want you to just picture the sheer 12 00:00:39.200 --> 00:00:42.560 scale of this event. We are talking about a four 13 00:00:42.840 --> 00:00:46.520 hundred ton titanium and aluminum behemoth. 14 00:00:46.320 --> 00:00:48.359 Roughly the size of a football field. 15 00:00:48.359 --> 00:00:51.320 Exactly a football field, that has been flying two hundred 16 00:00:51.359 --> 00:00:54.119 and fifty miles above our heads for over two. 17 00:00:54.000 --> 00:00:57.880 Decades, traveling at you know, seventeen five hundred miles an hour. 18 00:00:57.799 --> 00:00:59.759 Yeah, which is just insane. And it's going to fire 19 00:00:59.759 --> 00:01:02.479 its thrusters one last time, altering its trajectory so it 20 00:01:02.640 --> 00:01:05.840 just it slams right into the Earth's atmosphere. 21 00:01:05.239 --> 00:01:07.640 And most of it will vaporize into plasma on the 22 00:01:07.680 --> 00:01:08.040 way down. 23 00:01:08.200 --> 00:01:10.079 It's going to be a meteor shower of our own making. 24 00:01:10.560 --> 00:01:14.079 And whatever actually survives that apocalyptic re entry is going 25 00:01:14.120 --> 00:01:16.480 to crash into a remote stretch of the Pacific Ocean. Right. 26 00:01:16.640 --> 00:01:19.519 Yeah, point Nemo, the spacecraft graveyard. 27 00:01:19.079 --> 00:01:22.159 Point Nemo. Right, And that is exactly how the International 28 00:01:22.239 --> 00:01:25.319 Space Station ends. But the thing we really need to 29 00:01:25.319 --> 00:01:29.280 focus on today, the real story here is what replaces. 30 00:01:28.799 --> 00:01:31.560 It, because it's not going to be what most people think. 31 00:01:31.760 --> 00:01:34.840 No, it's not what takes over That orbital real estate 32 00:01:34.879 --> 00:01:37.959 won't be built by NASA or the European Space Agency 33 00:01:38.359 --> 00:01:39.560 or ross Cosmos. 34 00:01:39.599 --> 00:01:40.879 It's going to be private industry. 35 00:01:41.079 --> 00:01:45.760 Today, our mission is to explore this profound transformation happening 36 00:01:45.840 --> 00:01:49.359 right above our heads. We are stepping into the dawn 37 00:01:49.920 --> 00:01:51.959 of the commercial orbital economy. 38 00:01:52.040 --> 00:01:54.200 It's a complete regime change, it really is. 39 00:01:54.439 --> 00:01:58.159 And look, if you aren't an aerospace engineer or like 40 00:01:58.200 --> 00:02:01.040 a billionaire, the idea of bus this is operating in 41 00:02:01.079 --> 00:02:04.079 space probably feels totally disconnected from your daily life. 42 00:02:04.120 --> 00:02:06.359 It sounds like pure science fiction, honestly, right. 43 00:02:06.200 --> 00:02:08.159 It sounds like a movie. Yeah, But I want you 44 00:02:08.199 --> 00:02:12.439 to imagine a reality where low Earth orbit operates like 45 00:02:12.439 --> 00:02:14.080 a high tech industrial park. 46 00:02:14.039 --> 00:02:16.400 With actual storefronts and manufacturing plants. 47 00:02:16.479 --> 00:02:19.599 Yeah, a place where entirely new classes of life saving 48 00:02:19.639 --> 00:02:22.719 medicines are made, where materials we can't make on Earth 49 00:02:22.719 --> 00:02:26.039 are manufactured, and where people just you know, go for vacation. 50 00:02:26.280 --> 00:02:28.800 And this matters to you because this is the foundational 51 00:02:28.879 --> 00:02:31.680 layer of a much larger off world economy. 52 00:02:31.719 --> 00:02:34.840 Exactly, the materials in tech that come down from those 53 00:02:34.960 --> 00:02:38.400 orbital factories are going to embed themselves in our global 54 00:02:38.400 --> 00:02:42.439 supply chains. It's going to fundamentally alter Earth's markets. 55 00:02:42.599 --> 00:02:45.599 But to really grasp how this commercial orbital economy is 56 00:02:45.639 --> 00:02:47.639 going to work, we have to look backward for a second. 57 00:02:47.879 --> 00:02:49.479 Let's do it. How did we get here? 58 00:02:49.599 --> 00:02:52.639 Well, we have to diagnose why it took so incredibly 59 00:02:52.719 --> 00:02:56.919 long to happen. I mean, why was space entirely closed 60 00:02:56.919 --> 00:02:59.840 off to private enterprise for the entire twentieth century. 61 00:03:00.159 --> 00:03:02.240 Why were there no space startups in the eighties? 62 00:03:02.400 --> 00:03:05.800 Exactly? And it basically comes down to a very unforgiving concept, 63 00:03:05.960 --> 00:03:07.680 which is the economics of gravity. 64 00:03:07.840 --> 00:03:10.120 Let's unpack the physics of that a bit, because the 65 00:03:10.199 --> 00:03:13.879 sheer amount of energy required to fight Earth's gravity, well 66 00:03:14.000 --> 00:03:16.520 is it's hard to wrap your head around. 67 00:03:16.319 --> 00:03:19.520 It's not just about going up right, that's the common misconception. 68 00:03:19.719 --> 00:03:22.680 Right, going up is the easy part. It's about going sideways. 69 00:03:22.919 --> 00:03:25.520 Yes, you have to go sideways so incredibly fast that 70 00:03:25.560 --> 00:03:28.039 as you fall back toward Earth, you just keep missing it. 71 00:03:28.159 --> 00:03:32.759 That's orbit in a nutshell, falling and missing the ground exactly. 72 00:03:33.080 --> 00:03:36.240 And to achieve low Earth orbit, your vehicle has to 73 00:03:36.280 --> 00:03:40.520 accelerate to roughly seventeen thousand, five hundred miles per hour. 74 00:03:40.520 --> 00:03:42.759 Which is mind boggling speed it is. 75 00:03:43.120 --> 00:03:46.120 And achieving that velocity means your vehicle has to be 76 00:03:46.479 --> 00:03:50.879 essentially ninety percent highly explosive propellant by mass. 77 00:03:50.639 --> 00:03:53.560 Basically a giant bomb that you're carefully directing out the bottom. 78 00:03:53.639 --> 00:03:57.520 That's a very accurate description. The engineering tolerances required to 79 00:03:57.560 --> 00:04:01.479 maintain that kind of controlled explosion are incredibly narrow. 80 00:04:01.599 --> 00:04:03.280 You can't have a bad day at the office when 81 00:04:03.280 --> 00:04:05.080 you're building a rocket engine. 82 00:04:04.759 --> 00:04:08.360 No, you really can't. And historically the only reason anyone 83 00:04:08.560 --> 00:04:11.599 bothered to develop that crazy capability was the Cold War. 84 00:04:11.680 --> 00:04:13.199 The military industrial complex. 85 00:04:13.319 --> 00:04:16.600 Right, the entire foundation of spaceflight wasn't born out of 86 00:04:17.800 --> 00:04:21.959 some altruistic scientific curiosity or desire to build a free 87 00:04:22.000 --> 00:04:22.800 market in space. 88 00:04:22.959 --> 00:04:25.560 It wasn't about exploring the stars for the good of humanity, 89 00:04:25.800 --> 00:04:26.639 not at its core. 90 00:04:26.759 --> 00:04:31.360 No, it was born out of a desperate existential military competition. 91 00:04:31.000 --> 00:04:33.759 Because developing a rocket capable of putting a satellite in 92 00:04:33.920 --> 00:04:37.279 orbit is mathematically identical to something much darker. 93 00:04:37.759 --> 00:04:43.160 Yes, it is mechanically and mathematically identical to developing an 94 00:04:43.199 --> 00:04:47.600 intercontinental ballistic missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead across 95 00:04:47.600 --> 00:04:48.160 the globe. 96 00:04:48.279 --> 00:04:51.399 Wow. So when the goal is to prove to a 97 00:04:51.519 --> 00:04:55.720 rival superpower that you own the technological high ground, you 98 00:04:55.839 --> 00:04:58.199 really do not care about your profit margin. 99 00:04:57.959 --> 00:05:00.360 You don't care about cost efficiency at all. Just throw 100 00:05:00.439 --> 00:05:03.759 billions and billions of dollars at the problem until it works. 101 00:05:03.959 --> 00:05:07.079 The economics of a sustainable business just completely did not 102 00:05:07.199 --> 00:05:08.879 factor into the blueprints. 103 00:05:08.360 --> 00:05:11.199 Not even a little bit, and that created a paradigm 104 00:05:11.279 --> 00:05:15.399 where getting a single kilogram of payload into orbit costs 105 00:05:15.480 --> 00:05:17.199 tens of thousands of dollars. 106 00:05:16.839 --> 00:05:19.639 Which completely prices out normal businesses totally. 107 00:05:19.680 --> 00:05:22.480 At those prices, the only viable cargo is, you know, 108 00:05:22.600 --> 00:05:27.199 a multimillion dollar spice satellite or a massive government science experiment. 109 00:05:27.399 --> 00:05:30.000 You can't build a business when your shipping cost exceed 110 00:05:30.000 --> 00:05:32.040 the value of your actual product by a factor of 111 00:05:32.079 --> 00:05:32.560 a thousand. 112 00:05:32.600 --> 00:05:34.040 It's economically impossible. 113 00:05:34.160 --> 00:05:38.199 Okay, that makes total sense. And that absurdly expensive paradigm 114 00:05:38.240 --> 00:05:41.720 lasted for decades. But then the physical architecture of the 115 00:05:41.800 --> 00:05:43.079 rockets actually changed. 116 00:05:43.480 --> 00:05:47.160 Yes, and this is the catalyst for everything happening now. 117 00:05:47.720 --> 00:05:50.040 I want to use an analogy here because it highlights 118 00:05:50.319 --> 00:05:52.240 just how broken that old system was. 119 00:05:52.360 --> 00:05:52.800 JILLBD. 120 00:05:53.120 --> 00:05:56.720 For the first fifty years of spaceflight, going to orbit 121 00:05:57.199 --> 00:06:00.000 was like building a state of the art, multimillion dollar 122 00:06:00.079 --> 00:06:03.800 luxury cruise ship, loading it up with a few passengers 123 00:06:03.920 --> 00:06:07.319 and a tiny bit of cargo, taking one single voyage 124 00:06:07.319 --> 00:06:11.000 across the ocean, and then literally just deliberately sinking the 125 00:06:11.120 --> 00:06:12.639 entire ship at the end of the trip. 126 00:06:12.759 --> 00:06:14.560 It sounds insane when you say it like. 127 00:06:14.519 --> 00:06:16.759 That, right, if you wanted to go back across the ocean, 128 00:06:17.040 --> 00:06:19.680 you had to build a brand new, multimillion dollar ship 129 00:06:19.680 --> 00:06:20.439 from scratch. 130 00:06:20.759 --> 00:06:23.959 And obviously nobody would ever buy a ticket for a 131 00:06:24.079 --> 00:06:26.800 terrestrial transportation system that operated that way. 132 00:06:26.959 --> 00:06:29.439 The ticket price would have to cover the entire construction 133 00:06:29.560 --> 00:06:31.079 cost of the vehicle exactly. 134 00:06:31.199 --> 00:06:33.680 But that is literally what we did with rockets for 135 00:06:33.879 --> 00:06:35.800 half a century. We threw them in the ocean. 136 00:06:35.879 --> 00:06:36.639 It's so wasteful. 137 00:06:36.759 --> 00:06:39.639 But the catalyst that changed everything over the last decade 138 00:06:39.800 --> 00:06:42.439 was the development of reusable rocket. 139 00:06:42.160 --> 00:06:44.959 Systems, where companies finally figured out how to land the 140 00:06:45.000 --> 00:06:46.839 first stage of the rocket back on Earth. 141 00:06:47.160 --> 00:06:50.879 Yes, the biggest, most expensive part of the rocket, the 142 00:06:50.879 --> 00:06:54.199 part with the main engines. They land it, refurbish it, 143 00:06:54.360 --> 00:06:55.199 and fly it again. 144 00:06:55.240 --> 00:06:58.120 They took the disposable cruise ship and turned it into 145 00:06:58.160 --> 00:06:59.040 a ferry system. 146 00:06:59.160 --> 00:07:01.079 That's the perfect way look at it. You build the 147 00:07:01.079 --> 00:07:03.360 ferry once and you just run it back and forth, 148 00:07:03.399 --> 00:07:06.079 paying primarily for the fuel and the maintenance. 149 00:07:06.800 --> 00:07:10.560 And fuel is actually relatively cheap compared to the rocket itself, right. 150 00:07:10.639 --> 00:07:14.439 Very cheap. The economic impact of reusability just cannot be 151 00:07:14.560 --> 00:07:18.959 overstated here. It caused launch costs to absolutely freefall. 152 00:07:19.120 --> 00:07:22.519 We're seeing prices drop by orders of magnitude. 153 00:07:21.839 --> 00:07:26.000 Far beyond what legacy aerospace engineers believed was physically or 154 00:07:26.079 --> 00:07:27.319 economically possible. 155 00:07:27.399 --> 00:07:30.079 They thought it couldn't be done. But the private sector 156 00:07:30.120 --> 00:07:33.360 didn't stop at merely building cheaper delivery trucks, did they. 157 00:07:33.360 --> 00:07:35.839 No, they didn't. The true turning point where you are 158 00:07:35.839 --> 00:07:39.680 experiencing right now is that private aerospace companies are increasingly 159 00:07:39.759 --> 00:07:42.759 capable of engineering the entire orbital. 160 00:07:42.360 --> 00:07:45.920 Ecosystem, meaning they aren't just dropping off NASA's cargo anymore. 161 00:07:45.959 --> 00:07:48.759 They are literally building the destinations. 162 00:07:48.439 --> 00:07:52.040 Exactly, and this is a huge leap. For half a century, 163 00:07:52.279 --> 00:07:55.000 the ability to keep human beings alive in the lethal 164 00:07:55.120 --> 00:07:59.800 vacuum of space was considered the absolute pinnacle of national power. 165 00:07:59.600 --> 00:08:01.920 Because base actively wants to kill you. 166 00:08:02.000 --> 00:08:06.040 Every single second. Developing an environmental control and life support system, 167 00:08:06.160 --> 00:08:09.279 what we call on ECLSS, is incredibly hard. 168 00:08:09.199 --> 00:08:11.160 Right, because you have to scrub the carbon dioxide so 169 00:08:11.160 --> 00:08:12.720 people don't suffocate, yes. 170 00:08:13.120 --> 00:08:16.839 And recycle moisture from human breath and sweat into drinkable water, 171 00:08:17.160 --> 00:08:19.600 and regulate extreme thermal swings. 172 00:08:19.680 --> 00:08:23.040 Is essentially building a perfect miniature Earth pretty much. 173 00:08:23.079 --> 00:08:27.040 And that was the exclusive, highly classified domain of agencies 174 00:08:27.079 --> 00:08:28.600 like NASA and ross Cosmos. 175 00:08:28.800 --> 00:08:31.920 But now private corporations are mastering these technologies. 176 00:08:32.039 --> 00:08:34.559 They are they are building their own crew capsules, their 177 00:08:34.600 --> 00:08:38.000 own life support architecture, and their own docking sensors. 178 00:08:37.600 --> 00:08:40.279 Which is wild. Yeah, the technologies that used to define 179 00:08:40.279 --> 00:08:44.039 a global superpower are now basically off the shelf. 180 00:08:43.759 --> 00:08:46.440 Commercial products, well, highly specialized commercial products, but. 181 00:08:46.519 --> 00:08:50.399 Yes, okay, So if the ferries are running cheaply and 182 00:08:50.480 --> 00:08:53.080 private companies have figured out how to build the habitats, 183 00:08:53.600 --> 00:08:57.080 who is actually constructing the real estate to replace the ISS. 184 00:08:57.279 --> 00:09:02.120 We are watching a heavily capitalized, intense race to build 185 00:09:02.200 --> 00:09:05.879 the first generation of privately operated orbital stations, and. 186 00:09:05.840 --> 00:09:08.480 The architecture of these new stations is completely different from 187 00:09:08.480 --> 00:09:09.360 the ISS. 188 00:09:09.039 --> 00:09:13.159 Right, completely different. The ISS is at its core, an isolated, 189 00:09:13.720 --> 00:09:15.799 bespoke scientific laboratory. 190 00:09:15.919 --> 00:09:18.080 It looks like a giant science experiment. 191 00:09:17.720 --> 00:09:21.679 It basically is. But these new platforms are being designed 192 00:09:21.679 --> 00:09:25.519 from the ground up as mixed use orbital business parks. 193 00:09:25.399 --> 00:09:27.600 Mixed use like a zoning law. 194 00:09:27.480 --> 00:09:32.320 In space exactly. They are explicitly intended to support manufacturing, 195 00:09:32.360 --> 00:09:36.360 commercial research, media production, and tourism all at the same time. 196 00:09:36.639 --> 00:09:38.919 One of the strategies for actually getting these things built 197 00:09:39.000 --> 00:09:41.960 is fascinating to me, and honestly, it's a bit bizarre. 198 00:09:42.080 --> 00:09:44.360 You're talking about Axiom Space, aren't you, Yes. 199 00:09:44.679 --> 00:09:47.159 Because building a space station from scratch and hoping it 200 00:09:47.200 --> 00:09:51.080 works perfectly on day one in a vacuum is incredibly risky. 201 00:09:51.200 --> 00:09:53.720 It's an immense financial and technical risk. 202 00:09:54.080 --> 00:09:57.360 So Axiom Space is doing something I can only describe 203 00:09:57.879 --> 00:09:59.559 as a hermit crab maneuver. 204 00:10:00.000 --> 00:10:02.039 Out analogy is actually highly accurate. 205 00:10:02.080 --> 00:10:04.080 Break down how that works because it's brilliant. 206 00:10:04.360 --> 00:10:08.480 So Axiom strategy is to avoid launching a standalone, unproven 207 00:10:08.519 --> 00:10:11.840 station into the void all at once. Instead, they are 208 00:10:11.960 --> 00:10:17.799 leveraging the existing multi billion dollar infrastructure of the ISS. 209 00:10:17.360 --> 00:10:21.720 The negotiated agreements to launch their own privately built commercial 210 00:10:21.759 --> 00:10:26.039 modules and just physically dock them to the International Space Station. 211 00:10:26.279 --> 00:10:28.679 Right, they are literally just plugging into the wall. 212 00:10:28.879 --> 00:10:31.679 That is so smart. They're using the ISS as massive 213 00:10:31.799 --> 00:10:33.759 solar arrays for power. 214 00:10:33.600 --> 00:10:35.960 YEP and it's communication dishes to talk. 215 00:10:35.799 --> 00:10:38.679 To Earth, and the gyroscopes to keep everything stable. They're 216 00:10:38.759 --> 00:10:41.480 using the larger shell for protection and resources while they. 217 00:10:41.360 --> 00:10:44.120 Grow exactly like a hermit crab. They can fly up 218 00:10:44.120 --> 00:10:47.240 corporate research teams or private astronauts, park them in a 219 00:10:47.240 --> 00:10:50.639 Axiom module, but rely on the ISS for the heavy lifting. 220 00:10:50.840 --> 00:10:53.360 It mitigates so much early stage developmental risk. 221 00:10:53.559 --> 00:10:56.759 It really does. It provides a transitional bridge between the 222 00:10:56.759 --> 00:10:59.360 government dominated era and the commercial era. 223 00:10:59.799 --> 00:11:02.639 There is a secondary phase to this strategy rg. 224 00:11:02.600 --> 00:11:06.919 Yes, as they add more modules, so more habitats, research labs, 225 00:11:06.960 --> 00:11:10.519 their own power systems. The Axiom segment will eventually gain 226 00:11:10.559 --> 00:11:11.919 its own critical mass. 227 00:11:11.960 --> 00:11:13.279 It will become self sufficient. 228 00:11:13.399 --> 00:11:13.600 Right. 229 00:11:13.679 --> 00:11:16.039 Okay, wait, I see a massive ticking clock here, though, 230 00:11:16.080 --> 00:11:19.480 what's that? We started this conversation by saying the ISS 231 00:11:19.559 --> 00:11:21.559 is going to be crashed into the ocean in less 232 00:11:21.600 --> 00:11:25.799 than ten years. We did so. If Axiom is physically 233 00:11:25.840 --> 00:11:28.840 bolted to a dying space station, what happens when NASA 234 00:11:29.000 --> 00:11:32.080 finally decides to pull the plug. Does the hermit crab 235 00:11:32.159 --> 00:11:33.120 go down with the shell? 236 00:11:33.440 --> 00:11:36.320 No? And that is the elegance of the plan. Shortly 237 00:11:36.360 --> 00:11:40.080 before the ISS is decommissioned and begins its final destructive descent, 238 00:11:40.879 --> 00:11:44.240 the entire Axiom commercial segment will simply detach. 239 00:11:44.399 --> 00:11:46.480 Oh wow, it just unhooks itself. 240 00:11:46.480 --> 00:11:49.759 It will undock fire its own thrusters, separate from the 241 00:11:49.840 --> 00:11:53.840 legacy hardware, and become an independent, free flying commercial space station. 242 00:11:54.039 --> 00:11:57.000 That is wild. It literally just walks away from the explosion. 243 00:11:57.120 --> 00:11:59.080 Basically, yes, but Axiom. 244 00:11:58.720 --> 00:12:01.159 Isn't the only player in this game. The scale of 245 00:12:01.240 --> 00:12:03.320 some of the other proposals is just massive. 246 00:12:03.600 --> 00:12:05.799 Yeah, we have to look at concepts like blue Origins 247 00:12:05.960 --> 00:12:07.399 Orbital Reef for example. 248 00:12:07.559 --> 00:12:09.320 Orbital Reef such a cool name. 249 00:12:09.440 --> 00:12:13.039 It is, and there are architectures being developed by Voyager 250 00:12:13.080 --> 00:12:16.639 Space and legacy defense contractors like Northrop Grumman two. 251 00:12:16.799 --> 00:12:20.080 And Blue Origin specifically uses the terminology of a mixed 252 00:12:20.120 --> 00:12:21.000 use business park. 253 00:12:21.080 --> 00:12:25.000 Right they do. They envision a massive, scalable structure with 254 00:12:25.200 --> 00:12:26.600 modular leasing options. 255 00:12:26.879 --> 00:12:30.720 Imagine signing a commercial lease where your primary concern is 256 00:12:30.799 --> 00:12:32.200 micrometeoroid insurance. 257 00:12:32.399 --> 00:12:34.720 Right, it's a whole new world of real estate. 258 00:12:34.759 --> 00:12:37.399 But this shift from the ISS to something called an 259 00:12:37.519 --> 00:12:42.320 orbital reef is a huge philosophical pivot in what way. Well, 260 00:12:42.919 --> 00:12:45.519 the ISS was an instrument of diplomacy, right. It was 261 00:12:45.559 --> 00:12:49.159 designed to force rival nations, specifically the US and Russia 262 00:12:49.519 --> 00:12:51.759 after the Cold War, to work together. 263 00:12:51.679 --> 00:12:55.159 To inextricably link their hardware, so they had to cooperate 264 00:12:55.200 --> 00:12:56.360 to survive exactly. 265 00:12:56.639 --> 00:13:00.759 Its currency was international goodwill. But these new stations, their 266 00:13:00.799 --> 00:13:02.480 currency is literally just currency. 267 00:13:02.600 --> 00:13:05.559 You're absolutely right. It is a transition from geopolitical diplomacy 268 00:13:05.600 --> 00:13:07.480 to raw market capitalism. 269 00:13:07.600 --> 00:13:11.120 The survival of an orbital reef doesn't depend on international treaties, 270 00:13:11.320 --> 00:13:11.799 not at all. 271 00:13:12.000 --> 00:13:15.519 It depends on profitability, scalability, and market. 272 00:13:15.200 --> 00:13:18.240 Demand, which means if they don't secure tenants, the station 273 00:13:18.320 --> 00:13:20.360 goes bankrupt and just becomes orbital debris. 274 00:13:20.440 --> 00:13:22.799 It's high stakes, very high stakes, which. 275 00:13:22.639 --> 00:13:25.600 Demands we answer the multi billion dollar question here. 276 00:13:26.039 --> 00:13:27.600 Why why go to space? 277 00:13:27.919 --> 00:13:32.039 Yeah? Why would a company on Earth go through the immense, 278 00:13:32.679 --> 00:13:37.879 dangerous and incredibly expensive hassle of operating a factory in space? 279 00:13:38.720 --> 00:13:41.000 What is the actual market advantage? 280 00:13:41.120 --> 00:13:44.960 The advantage lies entirely in the bizarre physics of microgravity. 281 00:13:45.039 --> 00:13:47.120 Okay, I need you to break that down, because when 282 00:13:47.159 --> 00:13:49.879 people think of zero gravity, they just think of astronauts 283 00:13:50.039 --> 00:13:52.759 doing flips and catching floating droplets of water with their. 284 00:13:52.600 --> 00:13:54.039 Mouths, right, the fun stuff. 285 00:13:54.120 --> 00:13:57.159 How does floating around translate to industrial manufacturing. 286 00:13:57.360 --> 00:14:01.120 Well, when you remove the constant, crushing downward force of 287 00:14:01.279 --> 00:14:06.120 Earth's gravity, physical and biological processes behave in radically different ways. 288 00:14:06.320 --> 00:14:10.960 How different The implications for heavy industry, advanced materials, manufacturing, 289 00:14:11.000 --> 00:14:13.159 and medicine are honestly staggering. 290 00:14:13.639 --> 00:14:16.200 Let's get specific. Give me an example of something we 291 00:14:16.200 --> 00:14:17.960 can make in space that we can't make here. 292 00:14:18.159 --> 00:14:22.080 Okay, let's look at the microscopic level, specifically, advanced fiber. 293 00:14:21.799 --> 00:14:24.120 Optics, the stuff that runs the Internet. 294 00:14:24.240 --> 00:14:27.519 Yes, currently the backbone of the global Internet relies on 295 00:14:27.759 --> 00:14:32.120 silica glass fiber optic cables. Okay, they are highly efficient, 296 00:14:32.320 --> 00:14:36.000 but they suffer from signal degradation over long distances. You 297 00:14:36.120 --> 00:14:38.960 constantly need repeaters to boost the light signal. 298 00:14:38.759 --> 00:14:40.440 Because the glass isn't perfectly clear. 299 00:14:40.600 --> 00:14:44.440 Essentially, yes, but there is a theoretical material called z blan. 300 00:14:44.879 --> 00:14:46.080 Z blan what is that. 301 00:14:46.519 --> 00:14:49.879 It's a type of heavy metal fluoride glass and it 302 00:14:49.919 --> 00:14:53.919 could transmit data with incredibly low signal loss, far far 303 00:14:54.000 --> 00:14:55.720 out performing standard silica. 304 00:14:55.799 --> 00:14:58.000 So why aren't we laying z bland cables across the 305 00:14:58.000 --> 00:14:58.600 ocean right now? 306 00:14:58.679 --> 00:14:59.440 Because of gravity? 307 00:14:59.559 --> 00:15:00.799 Gravity ruins the glass. 308 00:15:00.919 --> 00:15:04.120 It does when you try to manufacture z bland on Earth. 309 00:15:04.200 --> 00:15:07.559 The heating and cooling process is subjected to gravity induced 310 00:15:07.600 --> 00:15:08.679 convection currents. 311 00:15:08.759 --> 00:15:11.559 Convection like how hot air rises and cold air sinks. 312 00:15:11.759 --> 00:15:15.639 Exactly that, But inside molten glass, as the material cools, 313 00:15:15.720 --> 00:15:19.080 the heavier elements subtle to the bottom and microscopic convection 314 00:15:19.200 --> 00:15:21.759 loops cause the glass to crystallize. 315 00:15:21.080 --> 00:15:23.919 And crystals are bad for fiber optics, very bad. 316 00:15:24.519 --> 00:15:27.960 Those microscopic crystals scatter the light passing through the cable, 317 00:15:28.080 --> 00:15:30.320 completely ruining its transmission properties. 318 00:15:30.360 --> 00:15:34.039 But if you manufacture z blan. In a microgravity environment, 319 00:15:34.200 --> 00:15:37.000 there is no up or down, so there's no convection. 320 00:15:37.200 --> 00:15:42.000 Precisely, or rather, the convective forces are practically eliminated. The 321 00:15:42.039 --> 00:15:46.360 glass cools into a perfectly amorphous solid. Without those microscopic crystals, 322 00:15:47.000 --> 00:15:50.399 you can pull a flawless optical fiber. The resulting cable 323 00:15:50.440 --> 00:15:54.600 can transmit data over vast distances with almost zero signal loss. 324 00:15:54.799 --> 00:15:55.720 That is incredible. 325 00:15:55.879 --> 00:15:58.960 And the same principle of eliminating gravity induced convection and 326 00:15:59.000 --> 00:16:04.399 sedimentation applies to manufacturing pristine semiconductor lattices for microchips. 327 00:16:04.519 --> 00:16:07.960 So for a massive tech giant, the astronomical cost of 328 00:16:08.000 --> 00:16:11.639 sending raw materials up to a commercial space station, paying 329 00:16:11.720 --> 00:16:15.159 for robotic manufacturing time, and flying the finished product back 330 00:16:15.159 --> 00:16:17.320 down to Earth, it's actually worth. 331 00:16:17.080 --> 00:16:20.279 It because the product physically cannot exist otherwise. It's that 332 00:16:20.480 --> 00:16:21.399 vastly superior. 333 00:16:21.440 --> 00:16:23.480 That is the economic calculus currently being modeled. 334 00:16:23.639 --> 00:16:27.639 Yes, and it extends far beyond material science. It reaches 335 00:16:27.679 --> 00:16:29.600 deeply into the pharmaceutical. 336 00:16:29.000 --> 00:16:32.759 Industry, medicine in space. This is where it gets really 337 00:16:32.759 --> 00:16:33.200 sci fi. 338 00:16:33.399 --> 00:16:35.919 It sounds like it, but it's very real. Let's examine 339 00:16:36.000 --> 00:16:37.120 protein crystallization. 340 00:16:37.399 --> 00:16:38.159 Okay, I'm with you. 341 00:16:38.519 --> 00:16:42.080 Designing highly targeted drugs medicines that interact perfectly with a 342 00:16:42.120 --> 00:16:46.879 specific disease receptor without causing side effects, requires scientists to 343 00:16:46.960 --> 00:16:50.879 understand the exact three dimensional molecular structure of a protein. 344 00:16:51.159 --> 00:16:52.759 You have to know the shape of the lock to 345 00:16:52.799 --> 00:16:53.759 build the perfect key. 346 00:16:53.960 --> 00:16:57.519 Great analogy. Yes, and to do that, they grow protein 347 00:16:57.559 --> 00:16:59.639 crystals and hit them with X rays to mac them. 348 00:17:00.039 --> 00:17:02.639 But I'm guessing gravity ruins these crystals, just like it 349 00:17:02.720 --> 00:17:04.119 ruins the z Bland glass. 350 00:17:04.240 --> 00:17:07.799 It absolutely does on Earth. The heavier molecules just sink 351 00:17:07.880 --> 00:17:08.920 to the bottom of the solution. 352 00:17:09.119 --> 00:17:10.400 They collapse on themselves. 353 00:17:10.519 --> 00:17:14.359 Yeah, the crystals grow unevenly. They are flawed, misshapen, and 354 00:17:14.440 --> 00:17:16.480 compress under their own microscopic weight. 355 00:17:16.680 --> 00:17:19.039 So the MAP protein is blurry exactly. 356 00:17:19.160 --> 00:17:22.640 But in microgravity, those disruptive forces just vanish. 357 00:17:22.799 --> 00:17:24.839 The proteins just float perfectly in the fluid. 358 00:17:24.960 --> 00:17:30.200 Yes, they grow into larger, highly uniform, perfectly structured lattices. 359 00:17:30.839 --> 00:17:34.880 Researchers get an absolutely flawless blueprint of the molecular structure. 360 00:17:34.720 --> 00:17:37.559 And once you have that perfect blueprint, you can design 361 00:17:37.640 --> 00:17:40.839 a chemical key that fits the lock flawlessly. 362 00:17:41.160 --> 00:17:43.960 You could be talking about entirely new classes of targeted 363 00:17:44.039 --> 00:17:48.279 cancer therapies or treatments for autoimmune diseases that are simply 364 00:17:48.359 --> 00:17:51.240 impossible to synthesize or map on Earth. 365 00:17:51.519 --> 00:17:53.160 That is, I mean, that's world changing. 366 00:17:53.279 --> 00:17:57.240 It is. Pharmaceutical giants are actively investing in this space 367 00:17:57.319 --> 00:17:58.000 right now. 368 00:17:57.880 --> 00:18:02.920 Because if orbital manufacturing yields a proprietary, highly effective medication, 369 00:18:03.519 --> 00:18:07.599 the return on investment easily justifies the orbital overhead. 370 00:18:07.200 --> 00:18:10.920 A thousand times over. These stations will quickly transition from 371 00:18:10.960 --> 00:18:14.799 exploratory outposts into essential industrial infrastructure. 372 00:18:14.880 --> 00:18:18.000 Okay, I see the massive financial upside for applied science 373 00:18:18.000 --> 00:18:20.839 and manufacturing. It makes total sense. But I have a 374 00:18:20.880 --> 00:18:21.720 real concern here. 375 00:18:21.799 --> 00:18:22.519 What's the concern? 376 00:18:22.640 --> 00:18:25.119 It's a belic it's left behind in this transition. Yeah, 377 00:18:25.160 --> 00:18:28.599 when space was purely the domain of national governments like NASA, 378 00:18:28.799 --> 00:18:32.839 the mandate was at least in part basic scientific exploration, right, 379 00:18:32.880 --> 00:18:36.039 pure science. We went up there to ask why not 380 00:18:36.200 --> 00:18:39.119 just how much money can this make? If market demand 381 00:18:39.200 --> 00:18:42.680 and profitability become the absolute dictators of who gets to 382 00:18:42.720 --> 00:18:45.599 go to space, what happens to fundamental science. 383 00:18:45.680 --> 00:18:47.079 It's a very valid question. 384 00:18:47.240 --> 00:18:51.559 If an astrophysicist wants to study cosmic rays but their 385 00:18:51.640 --> 00:18:55.480 experiment doesn't yield a patentable fiber optic cable or a 386 00:18:55.559 --> 00:18:58.599 lucrative cancer drug. Do they just get priced out of orbit? 387 00:18:58.839 --> 00:19:02.400 Your concern is highly validated by the current dynamics of 388 00:19:02.400 --> 00:19:05.599 the aerospace industry. It's a very real tension because. 389 00:19:05.359 --> 00:19:07.799 Real estate up there is going to be incredibly expensive. 390 00:19:08.000 --> 00:19:12.079 Yes, it is the classic tension between pure curiosity driven 391 00:19:12.119 --> 00:19:16.079 research and applied commercial research, but it's magnified by the 392 00:19:16.119 --> 00:19:18.200 extreme costs of spaceflight. 393 00:19:17.799 --> 00:19:21.559 In a purely market driven economy. An experiment studying fundamental 394 00:19:21.559 --> 00:19:25.240 fluid dynamics might be incredibly important for human knowledge, but 395 00:19:25.279 --> 00:19:26.839 it won't make a dime, and. 396 00:19:26.759 --> 00:19:29.559 If it cannot generate a return on investment, a commercial 397 00:19:29.559 --> 00:19:32.960 station operator has absolutely no financial incentive to host it 398 00:19:33.039 --> 00:19:35.319 over a highly lucrative pharmaceutical payload. 399 00:19:35.599 --> 00:19:38.680 So the pure science might actually suffer. We get better 400 00:19:38.680 --> 00:19:42.000 Internet cables, but we lose our understanding of the universe. 401 00:19:42.400 --> 00:19:46.240