WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>Hey, it's Alex with the Token Metrics daily Pulse from

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<v Speaker 1>March thirtieth, twenty twenty six. Got a weird one today.

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin's up, but the two biggest buyers in the market

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<v Speaker 1>just went quiet same week. Let's get into it, but

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<v Speaker 1>first a quick word from our sponsor. Okay, So here's

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<v Speaker 1>what's happening. So Bitcoin is sitting at sixty seven eight

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and seven dollars today, up about one and a

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<v Speaker 1>half percent. Ethereum is actually leading up closer to three

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<v Speaker 1>point six percent. Solana is up about two and a

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<v Speaker 1>half percent. Two on the surface, green day fine, But

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<v Speaker 1>here's what's bothering me strategy. Michael Sailor's company just paused

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<v Speaker 1>its weekly bitcoin purchases for the first time in months.

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<v Speaker 1>They're sitting on over seven hundred and sixty two thousand

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<v Speaker 1>bitcoin worth roughly fifty two billion dollars. That's more than

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<v Speaker 1>three point six percent of everything that will ever exist,

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<v Speaker 1>which means they are the single largest corporate holder of

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<v Speaker 1>bitcoin on the planet and they just stop buying. At

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<v Speaker 1>the same time. US Bitcoin ETFs led two hundred and

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<v Speaker 1>ninety six million dollars last week, first outflow week after

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<v Speaker 1>a four week inflow streak. Now, if you're not familiar

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<v Speaker 1>with ETFs, think of them as a rapper that lets

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<v Speaker 1>big institutional investors get exposure to bitcoin without actually holding

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<v Speaker 1>the coins themselves. When money flows out of those ETFs,

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<v Speaker 1>that's institutions pulling back. So the two most reliable buyers

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<v Speaker 1>in this market are both sitting on their hands right now,

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<v Speaker 1>and the price is up, which is either reassuring or suspicious.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm going with suspicious until proven otherwise. So where does

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<v Speaker 1>that leave the rest of the market? Pretty okay? On

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<v Speaker 1>the surface, total market cap is sitting around two point

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<v Speaker 1>four to two trillion dollars. Bitcoin dominance is at fifty

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<v Speaker 1>six point one five percent, which just means Bitcoin is

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<v Speaker 1>still taking up more than half of the entire crypto

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<v Speaker 1>market by value, and that share is holding steady. DeFi

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<v Speaker 1>total value locked is around ninety four point two billion

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<v Speaker 1>dollars DeFi. Decentralized finance is basically the universe of financial

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<v Speaker 1>apps running on blockchains, things like lending and trading, but

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<v Speaker 1>without a bank in the middle. Ninety four billion is

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<v Speaker 1>basically flat. Nothing dramatic there. The more interesting signal today

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<v Speaker 1>is in the narrative data, meaning which categories of crypto

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<v Speaker 1>are actually moving. Meme coins are up twenty seven percent

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<v Speaker 1>in seven days. DPEN that stands for decentralized physical infrastructure

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<v Speaker 1>networks think community owned wireless or compute networks up about

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<v Speaker 1>twenty five percent. AI tokens up nearly eighteen and a

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<v Speaker 1>half percent. Here's what that tells me. Retail is back,

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<v Speaker 1>not in ethereum, not in Bitcoin. In the speculative stuff,

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<v Speaker 1>the blue chips are bouncing modestly, the meme coins are surging.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a specific kind of market. It's risk on rotation

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<v Speaker 1>at the edges, while the institutional bid quietly disappears from

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<v Speaker 1>the core, which means the people buying right now are

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<v Speaker 1>mostly retail traders chasing momentum, not the big institutions that

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<v Speaker 1>have been holding this market up. Prediction markets are also

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<v Speaker 1>worth a look. Here. Polymarket, which is basically a betting

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<v Speaker 1>market where people put real money on outcomes, has an

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<v Speaker 1>eighty six and a half percent chance the Fed holds

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<v Speaker 1>rates at the June meeting, no cut higher for longer.

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<v Speaker 1>The takeaway is simple, Crypto has historically struggled when rates

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<v Speaker 1>stay high because cheap money is what tends to fuel

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<v Speaker 1>speculative assets. Keep that in mind as we go through

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<v Speaker 1>today's stories. Okay, let's talk about what's actually driving all this.

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<v Speaker 1>First up, strategy pausing its bitcoin buys. I already hit

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<v Speaker 1>the headline, but the deeper question is the one nobody's

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<v Speaker 1>asking out loud. If strategy isn't buying, who is. These

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<v Speaker 1>guys have been the most clockwork buyer in the entire market,

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<v Speaker 1>every week more bitcoin until now. Combined with the ETF

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<v Speaker 1>outflows two hundred and ninety six million dollars leaving in

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<v Speaker 1>one week, you've got a market where the structural floor

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<v Speaker 1>just got quieter, which means the price support that's been

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<v Speaker 1>holding bitcoin above sixty five thousand dollars is less certain

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<v Speaker 1>than it was a week ago. The price is holding

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<v Speaker 1>up today on geopolitics, which I'll get to in a second.

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<v Speaker 1>But if strategy stays quiet through next week and ETF

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<v Speaker 1>flows don't turn positive, the bounce we're seeing today is

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<v Speaker 1>borrowed time. Second story, ave V four launched on a

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<v Speaker 1>theoryum main net today two years in development, and this

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<v Speaker 1>isn't just a routine upgrade. The architecture actually changed. They

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<v Speaker 1>moved to what's called a hub and spoke model. Here's

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<v Speaker 1>what that means, in plain English, instead of one big

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<v Speaker 1>pool of money doing everything, there's now a central liquidity

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<v Speaker 1>hub that can pipe funds out to specialized lending markets

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<v Speaker 1>like a central bank that can direct credit wherever it's needed.

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<v Speaker 1>The real bet here is on tokenized real world assets,

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<v Speaker 1>which means AVE wants to be the lending layer for

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<v Speaker 1>things like tokenized bonds and credit instrument, not just cryptocollateral.

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<v Speaker 1>Why does that matter because the tokenized asset market is

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<v Speaker 1>potentially enormous. We're talking about bringing traditional finance instruments like

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<v Speaker 1>bonds and loans onto the blockchain so they can be

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<v Speaker 1>traded and used as collateral twenty four to seven without

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<v Speaker 1>a middleman. AVEV three already has twenty three point seven

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<v Speaker 1>billion dollars in total value locked. That's the second largest

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<v Speaker 1>D five protocol on the planet. If V four captures

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<v Speaker 1>even a fraction of the tokenized credit market, the scale

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<v Speaker 1>shift is meaningful. The honest caveat two years of development

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<v Speaker 1>usually means it's either very thorough or very complicated, probably both.

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<v Speaker 1>Watch how fast capital migrates over the next thirty days.

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<v Speaker 1>That'll tell us if the market actually wants on chain

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<v Speaker 1>real world credit or just thinks it's a good idea

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<v Speaker 1>in theory. Third, the macro setup. Rate hike bets are

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<v Speaker 1>building not just for the FED, but now for the

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<v Speaker 1>Bank of Japan too, And this is the one everyone's

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<v Speaker 1>glossing over. Here's the thing about the Bank of Japan

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<v Speaker 1>raising rates. It unwinds what's called the carry trade. The

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<v Speaker 1>way the carry trade works, investors borrow money cheaply in

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<v Speaker 1>Japanese yen, then deploy that money into higher yielding assets,

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<v Speaker 1>including crypto. When Japan hikes rates, borrowing in yen gets

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<v Speaker 1>more expensive, So those positions unwind fast. The takeaway money

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<v Speaker 1>that was parked in crypto because it was cheap to

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<v Speaker 1>borrow suddenly needs to come home. Last time this happened

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<v Speaker 1>in August twenty twenty four, crypto got hit hard alongside equities.

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<v Speaker 1>It wasn't a crypto story. It was a global liquidity

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<v Speaker 1>story wearing a crypto costume. And now the same setup

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<v Speaker 1>is quietly reassembling. The Fed isn't cutting, Japan might be

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<v Speaker 1>hiking the dollars staying strong. Every one of those conditions

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<v Speaker 1>is a headwind for assets that need cheap money to breathe. Fourth,

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin jumped today on Trump's Iran comments He said the

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<v Speaker 1>US is in talks with Iran's new regime and threatened

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<v Speaker 1>to obliterate oil infrastructure if a deal falls through. Both

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<v Speaker 1>in the same statement. The market read that as geopolitical risk,

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<v Speaker 1>which historically pushes people toward hard assets like bitcoin. The

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<v Speaker 1>logic being Middle East instability leads to oil price risk,

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<v Speaker 1>which leads to inflation risk, which makes hard assets more attractive.

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<v Speaker 1>That chain of reasoning is real, but it's not a

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<v Speaker 1>thesis you want to build a position around. Trump's statements

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<v Speaker 1>on Iran are volatile by design. The more interesting question

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<v Speaker 1>is actually the reverse. What happens to bitcoin if an

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<v Speaker 1>Iran deal does get done and that geopolitical premium deflates,

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<v Speaker 1>which means if the tension goes away, so might part

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<v Speaker 1>of today's price. Bop Fifth Bernstein is calling a potential

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<v Speaker 1>bottom for cryptoequities coinbase robin Hood figure. They're saying these

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<v Speaker 1>stocks are trading at steep discounts heading into Q one earnings,

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<v Speaker 1>and maybe they're right. But here's the counterpoint. Upbits parent

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<v Speaker 1>company Dunamu just reported a ten percent revenue drop to

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<v Speaker 1>about one billion dollars in twenty twenty five as trading

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<v Speaker 1>volumes cooled. Why does that matter for coinbase and robinhood

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<v Speaker 1>because Dunamu runs one of the biggest crypto exchanges in

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<v Speaker 1>the world. If their revenue dropped as trading cooled, that's

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<v Speaker 1>a preview of what coinbase and robinhood might report. Crypto

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<v Speaker 1>equities pricing in worse fundamentals than the asset itself is

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<v Speaker 1>either a buying opportunity or a leading indicator. Bernstein says

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<v Speaker 1>the former. The Denamu data says the latter deserves more

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<v Speaker 1>weight and a few quick hits worth knowing. Midas raised

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<v Speaker 1>fifty million dollars to solve the liquidity problem for tokenized assets.

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<v Speaker 1>You can tokenize a bond, but actually trading it is

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<v Speaker 1>still clunky, and that's the problem they're going after. The

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<v Speaker 1>takeaway is this is a direct infrastructure bet on the

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<v Speaker 1>idea that tokenized assets are going mainstream. Game Stop is

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<v Speaker 1>apparently exploring a bitcoin covered call strategy to generate us

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<v Speaker 1>on its bitcoin holdings, which is either sophisticated treasury management

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<v Speaker 1>or a sign that holding bitcoin without a yield feels uncomfortable.

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<v Speaker 1>And Navor delayed its share swap with upbit operator Dinamu

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<v Speaker 1>as regulatory review drags on, which adds uncertainty to both

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<v Speaker 1>companies' strategic timelines. All right, before we get into the risks,

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<v Speaker 1>quick word from our sponsor. Okay, we're back. Let's talk

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<v Speaker 1>about what to watch for. So what should you actually

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<v Speaker 1>be watching out for right now? Three things. One the

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<v Speaker 1>structural bit evaporating strategy paused ETFs went negative. These two

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<v Speaker 1>buyers have been the floor under bitcoin since January, which

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<v Speaker 1>means a bounce without them is a bounce on fumes.

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<v Speaker 1>There's no tested support underneath the current price if both

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<v Speaker 1>stay quiet. Two, the Bank of Japan carry trade risk

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<v Speaker 1>rate hike bets are building in Tokyo. The last time

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<v Speaker 1>this played out, DOO correlated down hard with global equities,

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<v Speaker 1>and it happened fast. The tricky part is this isn't

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<v Speaker 1>a cryptospecific risk. It's a global liquidity risk, which makes

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<v Speaker 1>it harder to hedge and easier to ignore until it's

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<v Speaker 1>too late. Three. Geopolitical noise masking weak fundamentals. Today's bitcoin

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<v Speaker 1>pop is a ran driven Trump's statements are inherently unstable.

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<v Speaker 1>Great progress and obliterate in the same breath is not

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<v Speaker 1>a stable signal. The takeaway if the geopolitical bid fades

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<v Speaker 1>and the structural bid has it returned. The price has

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<v Speaker 1>no floor that's been tested. That combination deserves respect. Looking ahead,

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<v Speaker 1>three things on my radar for the next few days

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<v Speaker 1>Tomorrow March thirty. First, we get us PCE inflation data.

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<v Speaker 1>That's the Fed's preferred way of measuring inflation. Think of

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<v Speaker 1>it as the report card the Fed looks at before

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<v Speaker 1>deciding whether to raise or cut rates. If it comes

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<v Speaker 1>in hotter than ex affected, rate cut hopes evaporate further,

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<v Speaker 1>which means risk assets including crypto, face renewed selling pressure.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a real near term catalyst. Over the next week,

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<v Speaker 1>watch ave V four's total value locked. That's just the

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<v Speaker 1>total amount of money deposited into the protocol. If capital

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<v Speaker 1>migrates fast, the real world asset credit thesis is real.

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<v Speaker 1>If it sits below five hundred million by April sixth,

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<v Speaker 1>the architecture is sound, but the market isn't ready yet,

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<v Speaker 1>and the Iran negotiations trump signaled urgency, so something could

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<v Speaker 1>move within days. A deal removes the geopolitical premium from bitcoin.

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<v Speaker 1>A breakdown escalates oil risk. Either outcome moves markets. That's

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<v Speaker 1>your daily polls for March thirtieth, The headline is green candles.

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<v Speaker 1>The story underneath is two of bitcoin's biggest buyers going

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<v Speaker 1>quiet at the same time. Keep watching which one turns

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<v Speaker 1>out to matter more. If you want the full rich

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<v Speaker 1>and break down with all the source links, head over

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<v Speaker 1>to the newsletter at tokenmetrics dot com. Everything we covered

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<v Speaker 1>today is right there, and if this was useful, subscribe

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<v Speaker 1>to the podcast so you don't miss tomorrow's edition. This

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<v Speaker 1>is educational content, not investment advice. Always do your own

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<v Speaker 1>research before making any financial decisions. I'm Alex, See you

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<v Speaker 1>next time.