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Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It's Friday, another two man show today.

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Believe Tokyo Brandon is gonna be on his way to

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the States, so we want him to get a jump

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on that travel. And so you're stuck with the two

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of us today. But we've got an hour's worth of

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baseball content and plenty of games to choose from, Brian Leonards,

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so let's get right into it. I told the folks

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yesterday that unless they were very very loud in the

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chat on a certain game, I would try to stick

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to the games that have a little bit of meaning.

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And the nice thing about this, Brian, is that suddenly

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because certain teams can't win, specifically in the American League,

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we have actually in the National League too, we have

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more meaningful games. If you told me we were gonna

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get this kind of playoff race in September, like six

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weeks ago, I would not have believed you. I thought

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I thought both leagues were gonna be pretty wrapped up

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at this point. But some of these teams just can't win.

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And now we've got postseason races. So little slow here

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getting this going this morning, so we'll let the people

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creep in. But I think where we start. Let's start

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in the National League with a large rivalry and one

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that's now very important to the San Francisco Giants, much

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more important to the Giants than I thought it might

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have been five weeks ago when it looked like they

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were out of it. But the New York Mets have

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lost six straight, and here comes Cincinnati, here comes San Francisco.

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Both of those two teams are one and a half

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games out of a playoff spot. And it's the Dodgers

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trying to hold on to the AL West, excuse me,

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the NL West right now. So let's start there. We

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have San Francisco Los Angeles, big rivalry, and now there's

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some big implication implications for this weekend series. Welcome in, folks. Okay,

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it looks like the people are filing in now. So

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here we go, Dodgers, Giants, Yamamoto, Lander, how are you

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seeing this one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? We talked just the other day about how much

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the Padres regretted blowing that divisional league last year and

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how much it meant to them, and they have not

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picked up their play at all. Actually, right now, I

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just looked and believe it or not, the Texas Rangers

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now have about a twenty eight percent chance of making

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the playoffs, where after Seger got hurt, they were really

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written off. So yeah, we're getting a little bit more excitement.

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I don't know if there's going to be any changes,

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but some of these teams took their foot off the

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gas and now they're having a hard time getting it

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back on. So yeah, some pretty good baseball out there,

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and this game we're looking at the Dodgers Gemamoto against Verlander.

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Who would have thought we'd have a game with Verlander

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at home this late in the season that meant anything

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because for a long time he didn't have a single

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win and they weren't even sure that he was going

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to finish off the season. Yamamoto about a one fifty

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five favorite here total of eight. Yamamoto has been terrific

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for the Dodgers all season on. They're one guy that's

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made been able to make all these starts. He's got

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twenty seven starts on the season after eighteen in his

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first year last year, so he's been everything they've asked for.

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Two point seven to two ERA, two point sixty six

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expected one point oh one whip a lot of red

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on his techas page ninety fifth percent of expected era

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ninetieth ground ball rate, so it doesn't give up a

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lot of home runs, and you know, it's it's hard

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to go against them, especially if the Dodgers' offense is

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working and they're getting some guys back. They just had

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Monty come back the other day, and so they had

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Edmund comeback. So the Dodgers are getting themselves ready for

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where they need to be come playoff time. And some

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of the starters are coming back. So Dodgers are setting

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themselves up pretty well getting up for this playoffs. The

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Giants Ferlander just three and ten on the season, but

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he's down four point h ay four point two OHO

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expected one point three nine whip, which is really last

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two years one point three nine and one point three

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eight on his whip, and that's not characteristic of Erlander.

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He's still only in the sixteenth percentile and ground ball

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rate seventeenth percentile extension, but his hard hit rate seventy

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six percentile, that's where he does best. No, he's not

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traditional justin Erlander, but he is a major league pitcher

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that is doing just as well just by anybody else.

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I would have him on the lower side, but he's

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been much better lately than he had early earlier in

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the season. And I'm taking a look at this game.

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I prefer the Dodgers, but I don't want to lay

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this number. If I can get something down int the

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one forty five rage, I may look at this. This

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is one of those games that I talked about earlier

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in this earlier month two months ago, when I talked

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about the Dodgers picking games to play in games to

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set out basically not giving the management, not giving it.

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They're all They're playing in one of their big rivals,

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the Giants, Arizona and Padres. Those are the games in

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which the Dodgers seem to get up for like the

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Dodgers here, but the Giants continue. I mean, you take

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a look at the the w RC plus over the

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last fourteen weeks. Giants continue to be the best hitting

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team in baseball one forty seven and it's been that

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way for about three weeks now. The next closest is

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the Mets at one twenty six, and we know how

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hot the mess work for a while. So I don't

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want to get in front of a hot Banning San

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Francisco team here at that price. So slightly into LA,

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but probably won't get there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm kind of like with you on not really

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wanting to play against either of these teams right now.

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The Giants phenomenal energy in that clubhouse. They're they're kind

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of they're they're reminiscent of like a team like the

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you know, the that the Rockies had a couple of

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these over the years where they were out of it

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all year and they got super hot I think twenty eighteen,

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and then of course the year they went to the

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World Series, which is a long time ago at this point,

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but that team, if you remember, was not even in

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the playoff mix, and I think they won like sixteen

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of seventeen to like sneak into the wild Card eventually

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lost to the Red Sox in the World Series I

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think two thousand and seven. The reason I bring that

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up is just to sort of make the illustration, Like

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the Giants right now, not only are they hitting the

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ball well, but everything the vibes are high, if you will, right,

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That's I think that's how the kid what the kids

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would say, Brian, the vibes are high in that clubhouse,

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And I gotta be honest, like that's something In September,

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mid September I tend to not want to play against.

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If this was May and they're having a little winning streak,

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I'm gonna say, Okay, that's probably gonna go the other

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way at some point. But when you're in one hundred

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and sixty two game season, you can see the finish line,

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and now you start to throw like a you know,

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you've been chasing this, this playoff perth that's now starting

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to become a reality. That's like not really what I

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want to bet against here. Then you talk about getting

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a guy like Justin Verlander, Well, you know, Justin Verlander

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at his current age on a game in game out

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basis is not Justin Verlander of a few years ago

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or of what he was most of his career. But like,

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you can't tell me that like Verlander September he knows

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the importance of this game, Like, are there that many

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other guys that you'd want on the mound in this spot?

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Right like in a you know, he's a he's a

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veteran guy. You know, at least at the very least,

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you know, he's going to be very well prepared for

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this game. He's going to know exactly how he wants

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to attack the Dodgers hitters. This is a guy that

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his last two starts eleven innings, zero run, sixteen strikeouts.

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He's still getting swing and miss. So it's not you know,

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I wouldn't want to lay a price on the road

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to fade Verlander here, Like it's just not the spot

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to do it. I'm not saying the Dodgers won't win

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this series. I'm not saying that there's not gonna be

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good spots this week. And I at the Dodgers, I

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think I prefer Giants plus one and a half here

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in what feels like it's gonna be a scrappy game

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like this really, to me feels like a game that

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kind of goes down to the wire. Maybe you know,

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maybe one one way or the other, there's a timely

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hit that decides this one. And if that plus one

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and a half got any more affordable, got any cheaper,

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I might grab it. Minus one thirty feels like it's

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priced in the right spot. But man, Brian, I don't

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want to go against the Giants right now. There's just

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there's just too much positive energy in that clubhouse for

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me to want to fade them and lay a price

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to do so. So i'd have to be on the

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Giants are pass.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would agree a little bit with the plus

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one and a half because you're getting a total of

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seven and a half. Nytime you get a low total game,

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the one and a half means more. Obviously, one and

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a half in Colorado doesn't mean anything like it does

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in Chase Stadium or or the Mets Stadium, whatever they're

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calling it these days. But yeah, it's we're looking at

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some interesting totals on today's games. And I just saw

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that the Texas and the Mets game was just hit

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on the total, and that's another game that has a

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lot of a lot going on today. I'll just take

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this one over at this point because I know you're

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going to get there eventually. But we got to brob

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going against Ton and Texas since since Seeger has left,

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I'm really not impressed with their offense at all. And

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you've got to Graham on the mound and he's been great.

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And if you take a look at the park factors

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today in New York City for this game, the way

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is blown slightly out to the left, but he's still

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nine percent. Is the runs expecting nine percent less than

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a normal normal Major League game. So I'm looking at

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the under in this game, and I think it has

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a little bit of value because I just don't trust

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the offenses between these two teams. Right now. We're looking at,

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as I said, the Mets with Tom going. Tong has

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pitched two games, and the first game he looked really good.

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Then he had to go on the road to Cincinnati,

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a big home run hitting ballpark. Gave up three home

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runs in that game. That really not what we expect

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out of him so far. It's only a small sample size.

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He only pitched eleven innings, but you know he should

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be around the league average in that regard. So give

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got three home runs on the road, I think is

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something you're not normally going to see out of him.

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He comes in with a four point nine ERA four

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point one to five expected one point one to eight whip.

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His overall numbers good, very good, but not great like

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he looked in that first start. But I think we'll

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see more of him at his best in this one.

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The ground two point seven eighty RA, A three point

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twenty four expected zero point nine to three whip. Yes,

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his ground ball rates in the forty second percentile hard

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hit forty seventh barrel raid only in the fifty fifth,

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but he keeps these guys off balance, and he's still

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got great fastball ninety seven four point five miles an hour.

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He's in the he's in the eighty thirty percent talent

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strict out rate feel for eight eighty fifth percentile, Chase

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raight ninety first, and he doesn't walk anybody in the

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eighty six. So if I'm looking at a game that

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has some mening today and we know this has meaning

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for both teams, I kind of I think this is

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going to be your traditional National League game. Before they

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even had the DH or three to two finals something

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like that, it got hit a little bit. It was

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slightly to the over in the seven and a half,

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and I saw some money come in on the under

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a minute ago. I'm going to lock this in right now.

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Is my parlay piece. I'm going to use the Texas

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game under seven and a half. You can get it

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minus one ten. A lot of places out there. Minus

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one fifteen I think is the highest out there. But

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I'll take that seven minus one ten because I'm or

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seven and a half. Because I don't want it nothing

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to go down to seven. I want to win on seven,

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which gives us a four to three five to so

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I'll get my parlot piece out early on this busy

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card for a Friday.

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Speaker 1: I love it. I'm right with you on this game

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being a tight Pitchers duel, tight game, tight game, both

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teams need it. I think you're gonna I think you'll

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get the bullpen management as if this is a game

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one or two of a playoff series where you know

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you're gonna see managers try to make moves to make

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sure that the beginning doesn't happen, so if you know,

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maybe less so with the gram. But I do think

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if Tong was to get in trouble, it'd be a

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quick hook, you know, just because he's got a little

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less street credit at this point, right, like you trust

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the ground to work out of a jam like that.

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I don't know if the leash is going to be

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as long for Jonah Talk now Gee Hurt. Yes, my

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Giants playoff ticket is still alive and if you watch

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my video on Tuesday, free pick video right here in

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the wager Talk YouTube channel. Brian Leonard I gave out

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Rangers plus twelve to one to win the al West.

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I said it was the right price good, you know,

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good time to jump in with that. And I'm pretty

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happy with myself right now because i think it's down

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to like nine to one, and everything in the last

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couple of days sort of played out for that to be,

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you know, except for the Mariners just continue to walk

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off when somehow in extra innings. But every everything kind

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of played out to meet for that to be the case.

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I will say this, I'll Rangers or Mariners win that division.

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I'm gonna do. Okay, your boy is screwed if the

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Astros winning, so we need them to keep losing. But

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neither here back to this game. So people have been

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messaging me because of course I was very pro Mets,

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bring these young guys up, let's get it going, you know.

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And it worked for a minute, and now the Mets

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have lost six straight and they're like, Trig, you know,

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what the hell this team's is? Are they even going

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to make the playoffs? Let you go back to what

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I said. I said, if the Mets want to have

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a chance this year, they need to see if this works.

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I you know, and I did take some position on

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the Mets at that point in time, but really the

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whole thing was Brian like let's get these young guys up.

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They need they need these types of games so you

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can see if they're gonna matter in the playoffs. You

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can see if they're gonna help you in the playoffs.

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So I didn't expect Tong, McLean, and Sprote to come

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out and just be number one, number two and number three.

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The goal was bring all three of those guys up

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and see which one can be a starter. He's probably

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gonna get one, and I almost think that you've probably

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got it with McLean. That being said, I still think

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Jonah Tong's very good. Remember this guy two starts at

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Triple A and right to the big league. So do

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I think that like him giving up a couple of

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long balls last time out is like the end all

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be all for him? No? Do I think him going

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out and throwing five shutout innings or whatever he did

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against the Marlins is like he's gonna do this every time?

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Probably not. He just hasn't had enough experience at this level.

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But having watched and pitch at Binghamton and just seeing

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sort of how he carries himself, I want to be

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surprised if he bounced back here. He's got great stuff.

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Change up is really good. I just think that the

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Reds had a good game plan for him. And then

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of course we always go back to Great American Ballpark.

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It's not a hard ball, not a hard park to

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hit the ball out of. And correct me if I'm wrong, Brian.

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That was his undoing in that game, right, A couple

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of long balls.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he had three home runs. And keep in mind

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that was his first major league road game and to

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play it in the obviously Colorado, but Colorado and Cincinnati

305
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are the two parks that you have to question. Even

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the good pitchers get bound in those parks. So it

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was a learning experience for him. And now he's humbled

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a little bit, and I think I think he's gonna

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come out and pitch a good game here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't disagree with that. The park factors at

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City Field, Brian talks about him all the time, generally

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favorable to pitching. And you know, go back to the

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magnitude of this game. Both teams are gonna be a

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little tight. The Rangers are one and a half back.

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The Mets haven't won in a week. That is, you're

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not playing loose anymore when you lost six straight and

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suddenly your your lead on the playoffs is a game

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and a half, so I think you see tight playoff

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type atmosphere. Brian, I'm right with you on that. Under

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as far as totals go, that might be as good

321
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as it gets today. All right, let's do the uh.

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Let's head to the early game. There is people clamoring

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for the early games. Thank you to the Cubs for

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giving us daytime entertainment. I don't understand why Friday afternoons

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don't have a happy hour slate. I really think you

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should get a national TV game at one or two,

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another one at four or five, lead us right into

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the night card. That's that's how it should be. Another

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00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:43,919
missed opportunity for Major League Baseball to market their sport.

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But at least the Cubs do it for us, Brian.

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So we have day baseball today. It's Shane Baz and

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the Rays who are kind of cooked at this point.

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I think they gave it there all if you will,

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and that this is the next couple of weeks for

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the Rays might be tough. I talked about this yesterday.

336
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My parlayent piece yesterday was the White Sox who got there,

337
00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:07,480
And I kind of think we're seeing the Rays. You know,

338
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they gave it the heck of a run right one,

339
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six or seven games, got back into it. Now they're

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clearly out. Do they get off the mat at Wrigley today?

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Or is this a spot where the Cubs just get

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it done? What do you think here?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it should be a nice day at Wrigly. Sun's

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out and the winds are blowing from right to left

345
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a little bit towards home play, so we're getting a

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minus eleven percent on the runs, so it'll be a

347
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lower scoring game according to the weather situation. Here, we

348
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are looking at the Cubs, Boyd, I left to you

349
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going against Boz already right now, Chicago's about a one

350
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sixty one sixty five favorite, a total seven and a

351
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half to the under. I could definitely see the reason

352
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for that. Shane Boz on the season four point nine

353
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to four. He's had some ups and downs all season long.

354
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His breakout last year was only seventy nine innings, but

355
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he had a three point oh six ERA, still four

356
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point twenty six in the majors in his four seasons. Actually,

357
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considering the division he plays in, it's not terrible, but

358
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you know he gets to play the Yankees in the

359
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Red Sox in Toronto all the time, so that was

360
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when in that division. So his number is expected as

361
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three point seven six, so he's a little bit better

362
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than what his actual number show. Still got a really

363
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good fastball eighty seventh percentile, ground ball rate seventy eighth percentile,

364
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which shouldn't matter a whole lot today if that win

365
00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:42,599
is blowing in like that. Matthew Boyd, I've talked about

366
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his innings issue, you know, in twenty twenty three seventy

367
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one innings last year basically forty. It's up to one

368
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hundred and sixty six right now. He has bounced back

369
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a little bit from his little dead arm period two

370
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point nine two ERA three point four to three expected

371
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one point oh six whip. But if you take a

372
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look at steckcass Page, he's more of an at this point,

373
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more of an league average pitcher. So you may be

374
00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:10,480
paying a price to get him here at two point

375
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nine two ERA. If you were to ask me if

376
00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:15,599
that's going to be over or under that number by

377
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the end of the season, and I know he's only

378
00:19:17,279 --> 00:19:19,680
got a few starts left, but I think it would

379
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be over so slightly. In with the Cubs don't want

380
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to lay that number, and I would think it would

381
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be a lower scoring game with it. With what's going

382
00:19:31,279 --> 00:19:34,720
on right now, probably a game I'm not going to

383
00:19:34,799 --> 00:19:38,519
get involved in, unfortunately, because I do like to watch

384
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the games. But with football coming up this week, and

385
00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:43,480
I'm probably gonna have to pass that one. Got to

386
00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:45,200
get all my right ups out there for football. And

387
00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:46,920
by the way, we did have a five percent play

388
00:19:47,599 --> 00:19:51,400
in baseball yesterday we had Cleveland. They came back late

389
00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:54,759
and won that game, so fifteen. I think we're fifteen

390
00:19:54,799 --> 00:19:56,920
to four now on our four percent or better in

391
00:19:57,000 --> 00:20:00,519
Major League Baseball. So still work on today's car. Don't

392
00:20:00,519 --> 00:20:02,359
know if I have any big plays out there, but

393
00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:04,839
it's been a pretty good run for us, and I

394
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appreciate everybody who joined us yesterday.

395
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:11,599
Speaker 1: That's awesome. That's like you're really all in on that, Brian.

396
00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:13,640
You got a five percenter and it's the Guardian, so

397
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:16,039
you're either going to be very happy or very miserable.

398
00:20:16,079 --> 00:20:17,799
So I'm glad. I'm glad it worked out for you.

399
00:20:18,759 --> 00:20:21,079
I got a five percent NFL up. I have all

400
00:20:21,079 --> 00:20:23,519
by college Football for the MOS or college football. NFL

401
00:20:23,559 --> 00:20:26,559
plays are mostly up on my page. Thankfully I've been

402
00:20:26,599 --> 00:20:30,039
winning there and in the lesser baseball leagues, because I

403
00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:32,119
have not, it's just been I've been done one of

404
00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:35,880
those three week or so ruts where I just seem

405
00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:38,160
to be on the side of every other side of

406
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:41,559
every timely hit in the client plays. My most recent

407
00:20:41,599 --> 00:20:44,960
client play was Wednesday night. I had Cardinals plus one

408
00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:46,839
and a half and I got walked off in the

409
00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:50,400
thirteenth inning to lose by two. So that's just sort

410
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:52,759
of you know, I didn't play anything in MLB yesterday.

411
00:20:52,839 --> 00:20:54,519
Should have actually played the White Sox. That was my

412
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parlay piece. But yeah, well I can't complain because I'm

413
00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:01,079
winning overall, so it'd be really bad of me to

414
00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:03,680
come on here and just like then because all the

415
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:06,400
other stuff's winning it. We'll get there in MLB at

416
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some point, and you know, if I have one, if

417
00:21:09,079 --> 00:21:10,559
I lock one in on this show at any point

418
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in time, I'm just gonna let you know. So obviously

419
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stay tuned to the end. And that was my sort

420
00:21:15,839 --> 00:21:19,079
of roundabout way at promoting myself because Tokyo Brandon's not

421
00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:21,599
here today and I always forget to promote when he's

422
00:21:21,599 --> 00:21:23,960
not here and someone in the chat said, no TV today.

423
00:21:24,519 --> 00:21:27,079
He's on his way to the States, and he's got

424
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a long flight ahead of him, so he needs to

425
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kind of get his ducks in a row before. I

426
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:35,079
suppose what's that flight, like fifteen at it was like

427
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:38,559
a really long flight right all in Phoenix or wherever

428
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he's going.

429
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Speaker 2: Yeah, we're gonna he's finding the penis. He's gonna be

430
00:21:42,759 --> 00:21:46,759
in Vegas, I think Thursday or next yeah, pretty soon,

431
00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:49,359
next pick or whatever, and we're gonna head out and

432
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:50,880
I'll take some pictures. It's got to know a lot

433
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:53,519
of people like TV and see what he dresses like.

434
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He normally dresses like a normal person in the United States,

435
00:21:56,839 --> 00:21:57,480
but you never know.

436
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:02,400
Speaker 1: Yeah it's Vegas. Maybe it's not.

437
00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:04,480
Speaker 2: It's not the Is it the e d M where

438
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:06,960
all the everyone addresses crazy? It's not the d M.

439
00:22:07,079 --> 00:22:10,680
But uh, he'll he'll, he'll, uh he'll dress a little bit.

440
00:22:12,759 --> 00:22:14,880
Speaker 1: Yeah. So as far as back to the game today,

441
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:17,960
the problem with this one is you're the books have

442
00:22:18,039 --> 00:22:22,279
already adjusted the rays sort of being done. So it's like,

443
00:22:22,759 --> 00:22:24,400
and this goes back to what I kind of was

444
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:27,559
talking about yesterday that that White Sox series you still

445
00:22:27,599 --> 00:22:31,119
had value in playing against a team that had played

446
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:34,640
so good for a stretch to get back into it

447
00:22:34,759 --> 00:22:38,160
and clearly is run out of gas. That's not to

448
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:40,079
say that that's not still the case, but now they're

449
00:22:40,079 --> 00:22:41,559
going to really make you pay for it, to the

450
00:22:41,599 --> 00:22:44,000
point where I just don't see any value in taking

451
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:47,079
the Cubs because it's like, you know, on a given day,

452
00:22:47,079 --> 00:22:48,640
if the race show up, they can still play a

453
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:51,839
good a good baseball game. The problem is you're you're

454
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:54,720
trying to figure out this is a team that's that's

455
00:22:54,839 --> 00:22:58,039
really gone all out to get back into this race.

456
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Now they've lost back to back games five and five

457
00:23:01,319 --> 00:23:03,039
in their last ten, they're six and a half out.

458
00:23:03,319 --> 00:23:05,559
My gut tells me the Rays are not gonna win

459
00:23:05,599 --> 00:23:07,640
many games the rest of the way. I just think

460
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like they may struggle to stay near five hundred coming

461
00:23:11,839 --> 00:23:15,640
into play today seventy two, seventy four, and I don't

462
00:23:15,839 --> 00:23:18,440
I don't know honestly, Like, is there is their motivation

463
00:23:18,559 --> 00:23:21,000
for them to finish with a five hundred record. Probably

464
00:23:21,039 --> 00:23:23,279
not so. I think the next few weeks you're just

465
00:23:23,279 --> 00:23:25,000
gonna kind of see them play out the string. That's

466
00:23:25,039 --> 00:23:28,759
that's that's how I truly feel about the Rays. Problem

467
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,759
is the Cubs they're kind of locked into their spot

468
00:23:31,799 --> 00:23:34,279
as well. They're not gonna catch the Brewers. They're not

469
00:23:34,319 --> 00:23:36,920
gonna lose their playoff spot, so you may see that

470
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:40,400
too from the Cubs. I think I go under again here.

471
00:23:40,519 --> 00:23:43,920
It just feels like a game where early start might

472
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:46,319
not be a ton of energy the seven and a half,

473
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obviously because the two pitchers are very good. But does

474
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:51,079
that imply that there might be some win blowing in

475
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,240
Brian as usually you see seven and a half, so

476
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:54,279
regally might be some win.

477
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:56,880
Speaker 2: Yeah. Like I said, I'm moving from right field to

478
00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:01,319
left field towards towards own play because of Boyds innings.

479
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:03,119
It would not surprise me if it's a five and

480
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:05,880
fly for him. Talked about that sale. I believe you

481
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,680
had one yesterday and another guy who are The innings

482
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:10,640
are piling up and they don't need to win, so

483
00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:16,319
you're going to find you're coming down the stretch. If

484
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:20,119
you're basing your most of your handicap on starting pitching,

485
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:23,200
which a lot of people do, just keep in mind

486
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:25,200
these guys are going to go the five and fly.

487
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:27,119
You're not going to get the six and seven innings.

488
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,920
Out of them that you would have earlier. So keep

489
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:31,920
that in mind and adjust that towards the bullpens a

490
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:35,039
little bit more, a certain percentage towards the bullpens.

491
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:37,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I apologize if you if you commented on

492
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:40,839
the weather while I was like trying to organize my nose.

493
00:24:41,039 --> 00:24:43,680
Speaker 2: You've got other things to do now that Brandon's not here, right,

494
00:24:43,759 --> 00:24:44,759
So yeah, yeah.

495
00:24:44,559 --> 00:24:46,799
Speaker 1: I know I'm trying, and I already told you I would.

496
00:24:46,839 --> 00:24:49,160
I would fail at writing the time stamps down, which

497
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:51,000
I have, so I'll have to go back and do

498
00:24:51,079 --> 00:24:53,759
that after the show. But the great point you make

499
00:24:53,799 --> 00:24:58,119
about like the length these pitchers will go U both

500
00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:01,119
of these guys within the last year to have have

501
00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:05,319
fought an injury of some sort, So I'd be shocked

502
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:07,759
if either of them are pushed very deep in this game.

503
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,200
This might be a spot where if you're if you're

504
00:25:10,279 --> 00:25:14,319
into those pitcher type props, I don't know what the

505
00:25:14,319 --> 00:25:17,640
the number is, but I'd be really surprised if either

506
00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:22,039
bas or Matt Boyd like Farkxy, you know, goes over

507
00:25:22,079 --> 00:25:24,720
their their prop. Now I'm not sure which one's gonna

508
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:28,359
be priced, as you know, the premium option, but you

509
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:30,519
got to think, Brian, with a seven and a half total,

510
00:25:30,799 --> 00:25:32,720
one of these guys is gonna be like they're gonna

511
00:25:32,759 --> 00:25:35,799
there's probably gonna be like an eighteen or seventeen and

512
00:25:35,799 --> 00:25:38,480
a half on the outs, because you wouldn't have a

513
00:25:38,519 --> 00:25:40,720
seven and a half with these two starters and then

514
00:25:40,759 --> 00:25:43,039
have the books say, oh, but but one of them

515
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:45,359
is not going very deep. They're gonna be priced to

516
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:47,799
pitch well and go deep into the game even if

517
00:25:47,799 --> 00:25:50,599
they do pitch well, Like Brian's saying, might be five

518
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:53,640
innings here, because I just don't think either club has

519
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:58,279
any sort of There's nothing good that can come of

520
00:25:58,319 --> 00:26:00,480
pushing either of these guys deep into the game right

521
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:04,440
now and possibly risking injury to someone that's been injury prone.

522
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:07,039
So I'll call it under their outs total for both

523
00:26:07,039 --> 00:26:07,319
of them.

524
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:10,559
Speaker 2: I think the prop out there, I can't play it here,

525
00:26:10,599 --> 00:26:13,519
but the brand as used in the past, will this

526
00:26:13,599 --> 00:26:17,640
picture get the get a win? I think betting against

527
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,680
both these pictures would be pretty good because we mainly

528
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,160
see board for four innings, which wouldn't qualify him for

529
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:25,559
the win, and with the line of seven and a half,

530
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:27,519
there's not gonna be many runs scores so there's more

531
00:26:27,559 --> 00:26:30,079
of a chance for the game to be tied and

532
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:32,240
that might not be a position to get that victory.

533
00:26:32,319 --> 00:26:34,640
So great point. I don't have that out there, but

534
00:26:35,039 --> 00:26:37,720
something to keep in mind for those shopping for something

535
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:40,359
to play on this early game on today's card.

536
00:26:40,759 --> 00:26:43,039
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a really good point too. There's so many,

537
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:46,079
so many different ways you can sort of like oppose

538
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:49,599
these pitchers going deep and then and then maybe you

539
00:26:49,759 --> 00:26:52,480
maybe you're under the full game under is just your

540
00:26:52,519 --> 00:26:55,200
hedge because you know what I mean. I mean, if

541
00:26:55,759 --> 00:26:57,799
the only way that either of these guys is going

542
00:26:57,839 --> 00:26:59,799
to pitch in the six or seventh inning is if

543
00:26:59,799 --> 00:27:03,519
they're just so efficient lights out, one, two, three, which

544
00:27:03,599 --> 00:27:05,200
is gonna put you in a great position for a

545
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:09,240
full game under. So yeah, that's that's a definitely ways

546
00:27:09,279 --> 00:27:12,359
to get involved early if you want action in that

547
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:15,039
early game, all right, Colin, He says we got to

548
00:27:15,039 --> 00:27:17,240
talk the game of the day, and he says the

549
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:20,920
game of the day is Red Sox Yankees. I don't

550
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:23,119
know how much I agree with that. Never heard of,

551
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:29,440
but it is a it is certainly a rivalry impactful.

552
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:32,279
Both teams are still very much in the you know,

553
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,559
in the mix if if one were to get super hot,

554
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:37,759
maybe to catch the Blue Jays. But both are going

555
00:27:37,799 --> 00:27:41,400
to the playoffs at least they should unless there's a

556
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:46,359
Red Sox esque collapse. I'll never forget that that year,

557
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:48,920
the year that the Red Sox really tanked and Evan

558
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:52,119
Longoria hit that ball that ended up eliminating them from

559
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:55,720
the playoffs. I had so many Red Sox futures that year,

560
00:27:56,559 --> 00:28:01,000
like at great prices to win the World Series that

561
00:28:01,039 --> 00:28:03,039
and they didn't even get to the playoffs. Still want

562
00:28:03,039 --> 00:28:06,359
to like the most mind numbing I think baseball results

563
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:08,640
of all time. I can't remember. That had to be

564
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:10,799
like ten years ago at this point, but I just

565
00:28:10,839 --> 00:28:13,599
never forget like Longoria was like in a meaningless game,

566
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:16,880
hit a walk off that I think eliminated the Red

567
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:20,319
Sox from the playoffs after being like ten games up

568
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:24,759
going into September. Anyway, digress right there, back to this year, Yankees,

569
00:28:24,799 --> 00:28:27,559
Red Sox. What do we have tonight? Brian Luis, Heal,

570
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:29,960
Lucas Giolito been White Park.

571
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:35,319
Speaker 2: That's what I'm saying on here. The win, the runs

572
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:38,400
expected as nine percent more, which is family is a

573
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,799
pretty good hitters ballpark. The wins blowing from right to left,

574
00:28:42,119 --> 00:28:46,559
slightly out but not not a ton not a lot

575
00:28:46,599 --> 00:28:48,359
of sun there, so it's not going to be one

576
00:28:48,359 --> 00:28:53,000
of those type of days. But the Mets, excuse me,

577
00:28:53,039 --> 00:28:56,279
the Yankees and the Red Sox got Heel against Giolito.

578
00:28:56,759 --> 00:28:59,880
Heels about a one twenty favorite in that range right now,

579
00:29:00,079 --> 00:29:02,480
total of eight and a half to the over or

580
00:29:02,599 --> 00:29:07,039
nine to the under, pretty much right in the middle there. Well,

581
00:29:07,079 --> 00:29:08,440
I'm taking a look at this game. You take a

582
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:11,079
look at what Lewis Hill has done since he's come back.

583
00:29:11,119 --> 00:29:13,920
He's only had thirty five innings so far. Three point

584
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:16,559
three one era is not bad, but his expected arras

585
00:29:16,599 --> 00:29:19,559
four point eight seven one point five three whip. That's

586
00:29:19,559 --> 00:29:23,400
what he does. His walk rate is, believe it or not.

587
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:25,680
Right now, his walk rate of fourteen point nine is

588
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:29,160
a career high. The last two years it went down

589
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:31,400
a little bit, but that's just still. He's twelve point

590
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:35,039
nine in his career walk rate. And these teams know

591
00:29:35,119 --> 00:29:37,799
each other very well. They're gonna be Boston hitter is

592
00:29:37,799 --> 00:29:42,000
gonna be very patient with Heel, and even though he's

593
00:29:42,039 --> 00:29:44,400
only pitched thirty five innings, a lot of the numbers

594
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:47,519
on the statcass page are not solidified, just not enough

595
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:50,519
pitch is thrown, yet a lot of it is in

596
00:29:50,559 --> 00:29:53,279
the blue. He has not been that grade, even though

597
00:29:53,279 --> 00:29:55,400
he's got that three point three to one ERA. I

598
00:29:55,519 --> 00:29:59,039
trust the expected the RA much more than that. Look

599
00:29:59,039 --> 00:30:03,039
as Giletto very three point three eight ERA five point

600
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:07,519
zero zero expected ERA one point twenty six whip well,

601
00:30:07,599 --> 00:30:10,480
his extension is in the seventy second percentile. That's the

602
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:14,839
only thing he does in the as a pitcher that's

603
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:17,400
in the red, meaning it's better than the league average.

604
00:30:17,799 --> 00:30:20,119
Everything else is in the blue. The best other thing

605
00:30:20,119 --> 00:30:23,319
he does hard hit rate forty eight percentile. So we've

606
00:30:23,359 --> 00:30:26,279
got two guys who's their eras are lower than the

607
00:30:26,319 --> 00:30:29,200
way they pitched this season. And I can't believe Lucas

608
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:32,559
Giolito's got a ten to three record with this five

609
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:35,279
round expected the IRA. That tells me that they tend

610
00:30:35,359 --> 00:30:38,039
to hit when he's on the mound, which points me

611
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:40,079
to what I like on this game. And that's the

612
00:30:40,119 --> 00:30:46,240
total over Boston Boston for if if I'm correct, They've

613
00:30:46,279 --> 00:30:50,279
dominated the Yankees all season long. But these are two

614
00:30:50,359 --> 00:30:53,640
teams that are mostly when they get together, unless they've

615
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:56,599
got some really good aces on the mound. They're going

616
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:58,680
to be higher scoring games we could get. There's eight

617
00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:00,839
and a halfs out there right now, you know, minus

618
00:31:00,839 --> 00:31:03,279
one twenty just one twenty five. I think that's not

619
00:31:03,359 --> 00:31:06,000
a bad bet. There may be something I use on

620
00:31:06,039 --> 00:31:09,359
my card today, but I prefer the offenses here going

621
00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:13,720
against rieties, and that's what most Major League Baseball teams do.

622
00:31:14,799 --> 00:31:19,000
Two thirds to three fourths of the starters they see

623
00:31:19,079 --> 00:31:21,880
are right handed. So yeah, I kind of like the

624
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:24,240
over here. I'm not fans of either one of these pitchers,

625
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:28,160
and to get a number in Boston, either the eight

626
00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:31,359
and a half over or the nine to the under

627
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:33,440
is kind of a cheap number, So I like the

628
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:34,160
over in this one.

629
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,480
Speaker 1: Brian, I think we have to do. This might be

630
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:41,319
the first time. I think we're gonna do the consensus

631
00:31:41,519 --> 00:31:45,359
parlay because you and I both agreed on I think

632
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:47,960
what are two what would be our two favorite totals

633
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:50,880
of the day that rangers under and then over in

634
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:53,559
this game. Before you even said that, I had my

635
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:55,559
numbers up and I was like, wow, I've got a big,

636
00:31:55,799 --> 00:31:59,079
pretty big numerical edge on the total at eight and

637
00:31:59,119 --> 00:32:02,240
a half. Both of these pitchers. You talked about expected

638
00:32:02,279 --> 00:32:05,759
e r and so I'll actually just go a different

639
00:32:05,799 --> 00:32:07,839
angle that I think helps us one over. We are

640
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:10,640
at the point of the season where I don't think

641
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:13,599
any hitter on the opposing team fears anyone coming out

642
00:32:13,599 --> 00:32:16,160
of that dugout, anyone coming out of that bullpen. All

643
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:19,839
all of these relievers have been hit at some point

644
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:25,200
by the other team this year, and most of them

645
00:32:25,559 --> 00:32:28,200
mostly like you know, Red Sox. I think the Red

646
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,640
Sox have got to like every Yankee reliever at some

647
00:32:31,799 --> 00:32:34,400
point in time this year, and and the and the

648
00:32:34,519 --> 00:32:36,880
chat was right about that, like the Red Sox have

649
00:32:37,039 --> 00:32:40,119
you know, they've they've owned them this year. So now

650
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:43,960
you get you know, Beenway Park definitely definitely tends to

651
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:48,400
be hit or friendly, right, And Yankees having to go

652
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:51,400
on the road here is like I would say, less

653
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:54,519
than ideal in terms of like wins and losses type deal.

654
00:32:54,559 --> 00:32:56,200
But it doesn't mean they're not going to put up runs.

655
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:58,880
And then you want to talk about the series that

656
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:02,240
could absolutely have the late timely hit. It's really these

657
00:33:02,279 --> 00:33:05,839
two teams in a in a game that it means

658
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:08,160
a lot to both teams. I think you're gonna see

659
00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:11,400
leverage spots at the end of the game, and leverage

660
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:14,839
spots you know, yes, you have your better relievers, but

661
00:33:15,799 --> 00:33:18,720
we call it the reason that the term high leverage

662
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,839
comes from, like it's a hard spot to get out,

663
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:25,039
it's a hard spot to save a run. And and

664
00:33:25,119 --> 00:33:27,680
so I think there's like a you know, you almost

665
00:33:27,759 --> 00:33:29,960
want those in a game when you have the over right,

666
00:33:30,039 --> 00:33:32,599
you want the tough spot where you have to bring

667
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:35,240
your top reliever in and maybe there's first and second

668
00:33:35,319 --> 00:33:38,079
with it out, it's they tend to produce runs. I

669
00:33:38,079 --> 00:33:39,839
think you can get runs late off both of these

670
00:33:39,839 --> 00:33:44,519
both pens, and Brian's already outlined both starters having blue

671
00:33:44,519 --> 00:33:47,200
on their stat cast page being in line for regression

672
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:50,079
having poor expected era. So, Brian, I think we're going

673
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:53,000
forget whose leg is who? Let's just go consensus two

674
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:55,680
team around the totals today? What can we get Yankees,

675
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:57,799
Red Sox out here? Eight and a half? What's the

676
00:33:57,880 --> 00:33:59,160
what's the juice for eight and a half?

677
00:34:00,079 --> 00:34:03,799
Speaker 2: After right now? Are minus twenty five to minus thirty

678
00:34:04,599 --> 00:34:09,880
or you can get the over it basically even money?

679
00:34:10,119 --> 00:34:11,639
Speaker 1: So will nine.

680
00:34:13,639 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 2: All right and a half over Let's you know.

681
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:18,840
Speaker 1: What, just just just based on what I think most

682
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:21,480
people will be able to get throughout the day. Let's

683
00:34:21,519 --> 00:34:24,599
go over nine even money, give us a little bit

684
00:34:24,639 --> 00:34:28,559
more odds on the parlay. Worst case scenario. We uh

685
00:34:28,679 --> 00:34:32,119
we we land on nine and then we have a

686
00:34:32,159 --> 00:34:35,159
straight bet instead of a parlay. So let's let's do that.

687
00:34:35,519 --> 00:34:37,880
I will, I will run the odds, which is pretty

688
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:42,320
much just a standard two teamer today, two full game totals.

689
00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:44,840
I'll uh, I'll, and then who knows, maybe over the

690
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:47,119
next twenty minutes if we agree again, we'll just make

691
00:34:47,159 --> 00:34:49,480
it a consensus three team. You never know, we'll see

692
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:52,280
what we'll see what happens here. But I really believe

693
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:54,840
that there's gonna be runs in that game today, all right,

694
00:34:55,679 --> 00:34:57,719
mar Kins? Yeah, well we we We'll go to one.

695
00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:00,320
I want to get what the chat wants. Markins says,

696
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:04,079
d Backs Twins. You know, I gotta be honest, Brian.

697
00:35:04,199 --> 00:35:08,000
This is a series of This is a series I

698
00:35:08,039 --> 00:35:10,280
thought would mean a heck of a lot more. You know,

699
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:12,480
if you told me these two teams are gonna play

700
00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:15,920
in the middle of September this year, I would have

701
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:18,880
expected this series to be very meaningful because I figured

702
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:21,360
both of these teams and I'm talking about going back

703
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:23,760
to April. I figured both these teams would be on

704
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:26,760
the fringe of some sort of contention, Arizona in the

705
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:29,039
mix for a wild card spot, the Twins maybe in

706
00:35:29,079 --> 00:35:31,119
the mix for the division or at least in the

707
00:35:31,119 --> 00:35:36,159
playoff race. So very surprising. Now bringing it up to

708
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:38,599
present day, to see a d Backs Twins series in

709
00:35:38,639 --> 00:35:42,079
the middle of September. That means pretty much nothing. At

710
00:35:42,079 --> 00:35:45,760
this point. Both these teams are out the d Backs.

711
00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:50,360
Although I wanted before I say that, Arizona, where are

712
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:53,320
they in the Yeah, there's still only three games back,

713
00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:56,519
so maybe it's maybe Arizona's playing some meaningful ball here.

714
00:35:58,039 --> 00:36:00,360
It doesn't give me any more faith in them going

715
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:02,719
to Minnesota and winning in this series just because they're

716
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:05,440
quote unquote in it. It goes back to what you say, Brian,

717
00:36:05,519 --> 00:36:07,840
just because if you need to win at this point,

718
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:10,880
you weren't that good in the first place. Brandon fought

719
00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:13,719
not someone we've been a huge you know, the show

720
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:15,440
has not been a huge fan of him this year,

721
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:18,679
and he's it looks like Pablo Lopez is going to

722
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:20,519
be back in the BIGS. He's been at Saint Paul

723
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:23,599
for a while now so he should be pretty back

724
00:36:23,679 --> 00:36:26,559
up to speed from a pitch count standpoint. Do you

725
00:36:26,599 --> 00:36:29,440
have anything here from our Kins and d Backs Twins?

726
00:36:30,039 --> 00:36:33,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, Diamondback's not one point nine percent to make the

727
00:36:33,159 --> 00:36:35,320
playoff season though, they're only a game and a half

728
00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:39,760
behind the Giants, but they're plus nineteen in run differential

729
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:42,000
on the season. They're still a very good baseball team.

730
00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:44,239
They haven't had the breaks go their way. They're one

731
00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:46,679
game under five hundred, and I mentioned this the other day.

732
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:49,639
A lot of these guys want to finish the season

733
00:36:50,199 --> 00:36:52,239
over five hundred. Depends on which team it is. If

734
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:55,280
it's if it's a veteran team that is really out

735
00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:57,800
of it, then they won't like the Braves something like that.

736
00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:00,360
That's not a big a big deal, but for the

737
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:03,960
younger players, they want to have a winning record. Today

738
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:06,840
we're looking at fought against Lopez. Lopez about a one

739
00:37:07,079 --> 00:37:11,440
forty favorite total eight and a half here, Brandon fought.

740
00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:17,039
He's been a puzzle all season long. He he's now

741
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:20,440
gone three seasons. Got a five point one oh e

742
00:37:20,599 --> 00:37:23,000
ra a one point three to three win. But he's

743
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:26,320
got he should be better than that. His walk rate

744
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:28,320
is four point nine percent. That's great, that's what he

745
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:32,239
excels in. But I think he's getting too much of

746
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:34,280
the play. You take a look at his barrel percentage

747
00:37:34,639 --> 00:37:40,159
tenth percentile, hard hit rate fifteenth percentile. He throws six

748
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:43,239
pitches eight percent or more eight percent to twenty four percent.

749
00:37:43,239 --> 00:37:47,320
He's still his forsingmer which is isn't that great, But

750
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:51,119
he's got to play a little bit more on on

751
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:54,320
the edges, if you ask me, maybe walk some more batteries,

752
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:58,320
keep the other team from getting him inside the inside

753
00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:02,239
the zone because his stats show that he's not that

754
00:38:03,079 --> 00:38:07,480
terrific when he does that. Pablo Lopez came back a

755
00:38:07,519 --> 00:38:10,400
little bit ago and he's now got twelve starts on

756
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:13,079
the season, comes in a two point eighty four ERA,

757
00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:16,480
three point seventy nine expected one point. Oh wait, whip

758
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:18,920
a lot of red on his tecast page, as you

759
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:20,920
would assume. But his ground ball rate is in the

760
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:26,719
thirty eighth percentile, which is low. But overall his extensions

761
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:30,280
ninety third, walk grate ninetieth, chase ray eighty ninth, he's

762
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:32,760
a very good pitcher if he's healthy. They've got a

763
00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:38,159
pretty good sizeable edge here in this game, and that's

764
00:38:38,199 --> 00:38:41,239
why there's such a They're not a prohibitive favorite, but

765
00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:43,880
they're a good size favorite in this matchup where I

766
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:48,480
think Arizona is the better team. I don't know if

767
00:38:48,519 --> 00:38:53,480
I can trust fot here. Maybe. Yeah, there's too many

768
00:38:53,519 --> 00:38:55,159
other games on the board that I have more of

769
00:38:55,159 --> 00:38:56,800
an opinion on, so I'm just going to pass on this.

770
00:38:59,079 --> 00:39:01,440
Speaker 1: I just bind you. First of all, someone in the

771
00:39:01,519 --> 00:39:04,880
chat is saying I played against Notre Dame, Like that's

772
00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:08,920
just false. I don't know why. You know, obviously we'd

773
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:11,760
appreciate it. If you don't give our paid plays out

774
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:14,119
in the chat, you'll probably be removed if you do that.

775
00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:16,960
But I didn't bet against Notre Dame, so I don't,

776
00:39:17,039 --> 00:39:20,199
so that's just not accurate. I did bet against Notre

777
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:23,679
Dame Brian Leonard week one with the Miami Hurricanes, and

778
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:25,960
they stomped him out. So I mean, if we're just

779
00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:27,760
if we want to celebrate one of my Week one

780
00:39:28,079 --> 00:39:30,159
college football, wouldn't here we could do that. But yeah,

781
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:32,920
no no action for against Notre Dame for me this

782
00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:36,440
week in college football. Probably no action for me in

783
00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:38,840
this game either, I will say that, Like, you know,

784
00:39:39,239 --> 00:39:42,199
they gave him three starts at Tripa A not so

785
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:47,639
my initial angle when this game got brought up wash

786
00:39:47,960 --> 00:39:50,199
You know, Pablo Lopez being one of these guys that

787
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:52,480
had like got like a like the full sort of

788
00:39:52,559 --> 00:39:54,239
rub on the rehab and was down there for a

789
00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:57,760
long time. He actually wasn't as long. I in my head,

790
00:39:57,800 --> 00:39:59,719
he was down there a while, but he only made

791
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:04,920
three starts at Saint Paul and they actually weren't particularly good.

792
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:08,039
The best start for him was his first one back

793
00:40:08,119 --> 00:40:12,079
in the big leagues last time out. Six innings, two runs,

794
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:17,320
four strikeouts, one walk against the Royals. Problem with the

795
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:21,000
Royals is they can't really hit. As Brian Leonard already

796
00:40:21,039 --> 00:40:24,320
pointed out, this Diamondbacks team can hit, and this Arizona

797
00:40:24,360 --> 00:40:26,840
team will not make the playoffs in spite of a

798
00:40:27,119 --> 00:40:31,199
having a lineup that is very, very playoff caliber. It

799
00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:34,800
was the pitching and the injuries to the bullpen and

800
00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:38,159
guys like Zach Gallon not having very good seasons and

801
00:40:38,199 --> 00:40:42,000
guys like Cordan Burns getting hurt. That's the reason Arizona's

802
00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:43,400
not going to make the playoffs this year. It has

803
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:46,079
not been their offense. They've been a top ten offense

804
00:40:46,239 --> 00:40:50,519
in WRC plus all year and wouldn't surprise me if

805
00:40:50,519 --> 00:40:53,840
they were able to get something off of Lopez. At

806
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:55,960
the same time, I haven't been very high on FOT,

807
00:40:56,119 --> 00:41:00,239
So what do we have for total on this one?

808
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:01,920
I think I'd go over here as well.

809
00:41:02,519 --> 00:41:04,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, eight and a half.

810
00:41:04,519 --> 00:41:07,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know that I like that as much

811
00:41:07,679 --> 00:41:11,119
as the Yankees Red Sox over But this one, this

812
00:41:11,159 --> 00:41:13,920
is one that I could only at that number, which

813
00:41:13,960 --> 00:41:16,639
is key number when it comes to totals. You're talking

814
00:41:16,679 --> 00:41:20,480
about FOT who has a profile that I want to fade,

815
00:41:21,039 --> 00:41:23,039
Pablo Lopez, who, like, yeah, he had the good start

816
00:41:23,079 --> 00:41:25,199
against the Royals, he was not good for three starts

817
00:41:25,199 --> 00:41:27,960
at Saint Paul. I believe opponent batting average against in

818
00:41:28,079 --> 00:41:32,920
those three rehab starts was over three hundred. This Diamondbacks

819
00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:35,360
team can still hit, and I think that that gets

820
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:38,440
lost a little bit in where they're at in you know,

821
00:41:38,559 --> 00:41:42,159
in terms of like outside looking in. This team can

822
00:41:42,199 --> 00:41:45,400
absolutely still rake and they have no bullpen. And right

823
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:47,559
now the Twins, Oh, I forgot about this, which probably

824
00:41:47,559 --> 00:41:50,280
should be pointed out. The Twins have traded away every

825
00:41:50,559 --> 00:41:54,199
leverage reliever that they had, so there's really like nothing,

826
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:57,079
there's no consistency at the end of the game from Minnesota.

827
00:41:57,119 --> 00:41:59,440
Either feels like one of those games, Brian, where there's

828
00:41:59,519 --> 00:42:03,320
runs opportunities throughout and it's only eight and a half,

829
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:06,840
So why not take the eight and a half? There? Is?

830
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:08,480
What is the way I look at that one? All right,

831
00:42:10,119 --> 00:42:15,920
let's see, let's see here we go and to and

832
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:18,159
and turnbuckle timing makes kind of a good point, like

833
00:42:18,719 --> 00:42:22,039
the uh yeah, like the d backs as as just

834
00:42:22,159 --> 00:42:24,679
from the sheer fact that you're gonna get plus money

835
00:42:24,679 --> 00:42:27,480
here against the Twins, I do kind of agree with

836
00:42:27,559 --> 00:42:31,280
that statement, Wow, plus one twenty, Like it's almost like

837
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:33,519
this should this truly feels like it should just be

838
00:42:33,599 --> 00:42:36,119
like a minus one zho five type coin flip each way.

839
00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:39,159
So I wouldn't argue with you if you were like, hey,

840
00:42:39,199 --> 00:42:42,760
there's there's some value there on the underdog, yeah, because

841
00:42:43,199 --> 00:42:45,000
who the hell knows what's gonna happen with either of

842
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:47,840
these two teams. All I see is runs, So yeah,

843
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:50,480
I don't I wouldn't put you off taking me the

844
00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:53,280
plus money there. And I think, Brian, I think some

845
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:55,760
sharp people have come in and decided that they were

846
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:57,800
gonna do that because I think this one's moved down

847
00:42:58,159 --> 00:43:00,840
about ten to fifteen sentence before we got on the show.

848
00:43:01,559 --> 00:43:04,199
You you said twins are minus one forty at at

849
00:43:04,199 --> 00:43:06,360
one point. I'm thinking they're probably close to minus one

850
00:43:06,400 --> 00:43:10,679
twenty now, So I can't confirm that though, I.

851
00:43:10,679 --> 00:43:13,599
Speaker 2: Just want yet the lowest I'm saying is one thirty four.

852
00:43:13,679 --> 00:43:17,760
Speaker 1: But okay, so I have one of the one of

853
00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:20,079
the Sharper books that I look at as has moved

854
00:43:20,159 --> 00:43:22,000
lower than that. I don't know if it's a precursor,

855
00:43:22,079 --> 00:43:26,360
but wouldn't surprise me one bit because that that plus money,

856
00:43:26,800 --> 00:43:29,119
especially that type of plus money plus one twenty plus

857
00:43:29,199 --> 00:43:33,159
one twenty five on that Diamondbacks lineup is uh, it

858
00:43:33,239 --> 00:43:36,679
is not a bad deal. All right, Let's see where

859
00:43:36,679 --> 00:43:38,320
we're gonna go from here. I want to get one

860
00:43:38,320 --> 00:43:41,039
more of the I want to get one more of

861
00:43:41,079 --> 00:43:43,280
the the you know, kind of the games that are

862
00:43:43,559 --> 00:43:50,119
really going to impact the race. Let's go, let's go

863
00:43:50,159 --> 00:43:52,239
out West. Let's do one more, one more of these

864
00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:55,159
out West, Bryan Leonard, how do the Mariners keep winning games?

865
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:58,880
They They could have lost every game this week. I

866
00:43:58,920 --> 00:44:01,719
watched every game of that Cardinals series. I didn't feel

867
00:44:01,760 --> 00:44:05,519
like they were the quote unquote better team in any

868
00:44:05,559 --> 00:44:07,280
of them. I do think they did what they needed

869
00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:11,519
to win. I'm obviously furious about how Wednesday Night's game

870
00:44:11,519 --> 00:44:16,079
played out. I stayed up until like god knows about

871
00:44:16,159 --> 00:44:19,280
to eastern, watched every pitch of that game, and sat

872
00:44:19,320 --> 00:44:22,320
there saying, this is I'm gonna get screwed here because

873
00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:25,519
the Cardinals can't score and all the Mariners do is

874
00:44:25,599 --> 00:44:29,159
hit home runs. It's the approach from inning eight to

875
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:32,280
inning thirteen at the plate for the Mariners was so bad.

876
00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:36,119
One through nine swinging for the fence was there was

877
00:44:36,280 --> 00:44:38,360
zero attempt to try to end that game on a

878
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:41,199
base hit. Every guy on that lineup one through nine

879
00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:43,440
was trying to hit a bomb to walk it off.

880
00:44:43,599 --> 00:44:45,159
And then in the bottom of the thirteenth it was

881
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:48,199
Leo Revas of all people, that walks it off with

882
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:51,360
a two run homer. Fast forward to last night and

883
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:54,360
they do it again. But Brian, this is back to

884
00:44:54,400 --> 00:44:58,239
back nights where they've now played thirteen innings and eleven innings,

885
00:44:58,679 --> 00:45:01,480
twelve innings, twelve innings, alright, thirteen names and twelve innings,

886
00:45:01,679 --> 00:45:04,800
and that's on the heels of two close games. So

887
00:45:04,920 --> 00:45:07,320
I ask you, here are the Mariners. Who's who's coming

888
00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:10,519
out of the bullpen after Castillo today? Maybe Tokyo Tokyo

889
00:45:10,519 --> 00:45:12,480
Brada might have to stop in Seattle on his way

890
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:15,159
and throw a couple innings of relief because I don't

891
00:45:15,159 --> 00:45:17,039
know where they're gonna get bullpen arms for this game.

892
00:45:18,159 --> 00:45:19,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a great game to talk about. I do

893
00:45:20,039 --> 00:45:22,679
want to touch on since there is football games today.

894
00:45:23,199 --> 00:45:25,639
I put out a five dollars play in college football

895
00:45:25,679 --> 00:45:28,079
earlier in the week. I pulled it down because I

896
00:45:28,119 --> 00:45:30,519
wanted people to get it for five dollars. I still

897
00:45:30,599 --> 00:45:33,199
like it. It's it's still a very good play. I

898
00:45:33,239 --> 00:45:35,320
just didn't want to sell it to anybody else, and

899
00:45:35,360 --> 00:45:37,119
I wanted to give it to everybody for five bucks.

900
00:45:37,119 --> 00:45:39,159
And they got that, and I appreciate everybody that bought it.

901
00:45:39,559 --> 00:45:41,960
But yes, I still like that play. I just did

902
00:45:42,039 --> 00:45:45,159
not want to sell it for twenty five when you

903
00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:48,679
could have gotten it for five. And so anyway, yeah,

904
00:45:48,719 --> 00:45:51,960
this is the game that I circle coming in to

905
00:45:52,000 --> 00:45:53,800
find a way to play this one way or the other.

906
00:45:54,639 --> 00:45:58,480
And because I'm with you, Seattle list is what two

907
00:45:58,559 --> 00:46:00,519
or three games in a row. They're a little night's

908
00:46:00,519 --> 00:46:04,519
winning streak and other type for first place with the astroscent,

909
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:07,320
and in this division, anybody who's in first place is

910
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:09,679
a team I want to go against because they don't

911
00:46:09,719 --> 00:46:12,119
want to hold out of that they're they're winning it

912
00:46:12,159 --> 00:46:16,119
by default. And that's the situation we've got here with Seattle,

913
00:46:16,719 --> 00:46:21,079
Kakuchi the lefty going against Seattle and Castillo. I was

914
00:46:21,159 --> 00:46:23,760
a little surprised by the total here being seven and

915
00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:26,760
a half. Yesterday the total was seven and a half,

916
00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:30,039
and I like gestered his picture is better than today's picture.

917
00:46:31,079 --> 00:46:35,519
Kakuchi comes in here. Castillo's about about a what eighty

918
00:46:35,559 --> 00:46:39,280
favorite right now in that range one five total seven

919
00:46:39,320 --> 00:46:41,000
and a half. I don't want any part of Seattle

920
00:46:41,199 --> 00:46:44,039
get that number. I'll tell you that right now. Cacucci

921
00:46:44,119 --> 00:46:45,960
comes in at four point one eight e r A

922
00:46:46,320 --> 00:46:48,800
four point sixty eight expected one point four eight on

923
00:46:48,840 --> 00:46:53,679
the whip. He's not had a good season. His extension

924
00:46:54,039 --> 00:46:57,519
in the eightieth percentile and everything else is basically in

925
00:46:57,559 --> 00:47:00,639
the blue. It's been a down season and for the guy.

926
00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:04,239
But in this price range, I may have some interest.

927
00:47:04,679 --> 00:47:07,800
Castillo comes in three point eight five ERA four point

928
00:47:07,840 --> 00:47:10,880
three five expected one point twenty seven whip, which is

929
00:47:10,960 --> 00:47:13,480
high for him. And the only good thing on the

930
00:47:13,960 --> 00:47:15,840
on the board for him when it comes to the

931
00:47:15,880 --> 00:47:19,360
SACS page is his walk rate seventy six percentile, but

932
00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:23,239
his extension is the first percentile, hard hit rate six percentile,

933
00:47:23,559 --> 00:47:27,159
average Jaxson velocity tenth, barrel rate thirteenth. Is that really

934
00:47:27,159 --> 00:47:29,920
a guy you want to back in the one to

935
00:47:29,960 --> 00:47:34,800
eighty range? I don't. I think the better way we

936
00:47:34,800 --> 00:47:36,840
could play this if you don't want to, if you

937
00:47:36,880 --> 00:47:39,760
don't want to take the big plus money with the Angels.

938
00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:42,920
And I can understand that while Seattle's have been winning

939
00:47:42,920 --> 00:47:46,119
these late games, the Angels have been losing these late games,

940
00:47:46,679 --> 00:47:49,239
and the Angels bullpen is not very good. But if

941
00:47:49,239 --> 00:47:52,440
you take a look at the team total here, you

942
00:47:52,440 --> 00:47:55,079
can get if the or excuse me, if the Angel

943
00:47:55,119 --> 00:47:58,639
score four runs, you're getting plus money back because the

944
00:47:58,679 --> 00:48:00,559
three and a half is under an You were from

945
00:48:00,599 --> 00:48:03,599
like one thirty two to one forty, So you get

946
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:06,679
a decent plus money back by them scoring four runs

947
00:48:06,719 --> 00:48:10,519
in this game. So if you were combined with the

948
00:48:10,559 --> 00:48:14,719
Angels scoring four runs and the Angels on the money line,

949
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:17,320
two different ways to attack this game, but I like

950
00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:22,280
them both. I think Seattle's playing very favorable baseball right now.

951
00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:24,760
And yes, I know they're excited they're tied for first

952
00:48:24,800 --> 00:48:28,400
place now, but have they really deserved these victories. I

953
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:32,199
haven't seen any any better play out of them. So yeah,

954
00:48:32,440 --> 00:48:34,880
I'm finding a way to play the Angels or the

955
00:48:34,880 --> 00:48:36,480
Angels team total over in this game.

956
00:48:38,559 --> 00:48:40,280
Speaker 1: I love it. That's how I would go as well.

957
00:48:40,920 --> 00:48:44,679
First first thought was, with how much bullpen usage the

958
00:48:44,719 --> 00:48:47,960
Mariners have had this week, the last two days, and

959
00:48:48,159 --> 00:48:51,480
in just the general state of the Angels bullpen, how

960
00:48:51,519 --> 00:48:54,679
could this how could this full game total possibly only

961
00:48:54,719 --> 00:48:56,280
be seven and a half? That was that was my

962
00:48:56,360 --> 00:48:59,320
first thought there, seven and a half over minus one, ten,

963
00:49:00,119 --> 00:49:04,079
one fifteen crazy. I'm not saying Kakuchi won't throw a

964
00:49:04,079 --> 00:49:07,079
good game. He's very capable of doing so. I'm less

965
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:10,360
inclined to think Castillo throws a good game. He's kind

966
00:49:10,360 --> 00:49:11,719
of the one I would want to go against in

967
00:49:11,760 --> 00:49:16,199
this rotation. But I mean again, you're gonna be asking

968
00:49:16,280 --> 00:49:19,000
some real depth arms to come through for the Mariners,

969
00:49:19,519 --> 00:49:22,239
and the Angels just don't have a great bullpen at

970
00:49:22,239 --> 00:49:25,280
this point. So I like the over, and yeah, I'm

971
00:49:25,440 --> 00:49:28,119
I'm down with the Angels as well. I think if

972
00:49:28,119 --> 00:49:32,000
this is so right now where it's priced, Angels plus

973
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:34,280
one and a half is minus one thirty. But the

974
00:49:34,320 --> 00:49:37,320
Mariners have been taking money like every day this week.

975
00:49:38,119 --> 00:49:40,199
I got sucked in on Wednesday when I could get

976
00:49:40,199 --> 00:49:43,519
Cardinals plus one and a halfs it was like minus

977
00:49:43,519 --> 00:49:46,639
one ten or something like that. So I will have

978
00:49:46,719 --> 00:49:48,960
a close eye on the Angels here. If I can

979
00:49:48,960 --> 00:49:51,000
get like ten to fifteen more cents on that plus

980
00:49:51,000 --> 00:49:53,800
one and a half, I'll probably play that that's a

981
00:49:53,800 --> 00:49:56,480
good chance that hits my client card. But either way,

982
00:49:57,159 --> 00:49:59,920
seven and a half seems awfully low for a total

983
00:50:00,599 --> 00:50:02,800
in a game where you could you could get and

984
00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:05,960
let you know, the Mariners, I mean that's they literally

985
00:50:06,039 --> 00:50:07,960
play for three runs at a time. That that is

986
00:50:08,000 --> 00:50:11,320
how they're you know, they Kukuchi could could navigate the

987
00:50:11,320 --> 00:50:13,880
whole game and maybe he throws six scoreless. But if

988
00:50:13,960 --> 00:50:15,920
if they get a couple of guys on and Kakuchi

989
00:50:15,960 --> 00:50:18,079
will walk guys. I mean he's he's been prone to

990
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:20,119
giving a you know, a free pass here or there.

991
00:50:20,840 --> 00:50:23,280
I mean one crooked number one two run shot one

992
00:50:23,360 --> 00:50:26,679
cal Rawley into the seeds and suddenly the Mariners have

993
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:29,719
two three runs. I think you're gonna go over seven

994
00:50:29,760 --> 00:50:31,960
as well. So yeah, that's a that's another total I

995
00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:33,760
like quite a bit. Go ahead, Brian, Yeah.

996
00:50:33,599 --> 00:50:36,119
Speaker 2: I wanted to touch you. You mentioned the Mariners bullpen.

997
00:50:36,760 --> 00:50:40,440
Going back to Monday, they use their best four excuse me,

998
00:50:40,519 --> 00:50:45,000
the best three relievers Munos, Brash, and Bizarredo. On Tuesday

999
00:50:45,280 --> 00:50:49,840
they used five relievers, including their best three guys. On

1000
00:50:49,880 --> 00:50:53,159
Wednesday they used six different relievers, and then yesterday they

1001
00:50:53,239 --> 00:50:58,000
used six different relievers including Munio's, Brash and Bizarreto. So

1002
00:50:58,280 --> 00:51:01,119
there there's seventh eighth in night thinning. Guys have been

1003
00:51:01,199 --> 00:51:04,199
used three out of the last four days. Chances are you

1004
00:51:04,400 --> 00:51:07,239
may not see any of them in this game. Then

1005
00:51:07,239 --> 00:51:09,960
you take a look at Spires and Ferguson, they've pitched

1006
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:14,360
two out of the last three. Vargas, Jackson, and Castillo

1007
00:51:14,559 --> 00:51:17,840
have all pitched back to back games. Then you got

1008
00:51:17,840 --> 00:51:21,719
Emerson Hancock, who they just made her brought to a reliever.

1009
00:51:22,480 --> 00:51:26,000
It would not surprise me if Emerson Hancock comes in

1010
00:51:26,079 --> 00:51:28,119
as like a long reliever in this game.

1011
00:51:28,199 --> 00:51:30,079
Speaker 1: Yep, that's what they wanted to do. Yep.

1012
00:51:30,440 --> 00:51:33,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, And so he's looked good out of the bullpen,

1013
00:51:33,519 --> 00:51:36,480
no doubt about it. But this is a really short

1014
00:51:36,880 --> 00:51:40,840
bullpen that they're going to have tonight. It's it's a

1015
00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:43,159
later game, so they may make some moves from the

1016
00:51:43,199 --> 00:51:45,519
minor leagues. They haven't done that in a while, so

1017
00:51:45,559 --> 00:51:47,800
maybe they'll take some of these guys, send them down

1018
00:51:47,800 --> 00:51:50,679
for a day, you know, a few days, and switch

1019
00:51:50,719 --> 00:51:53,480
them out. But it's not the bullpen we've got used

1020
00:51:53,519 --> 00:51:55,320
to for Seattle, and they've had a pretty good bullpen

1021
00:51:55,360 --> 00:51:57,960
all season long, very good bullpen pen as a matter

1022
00:51:58,000 --> 00:52:00,400
of fact. So yeah, if we could, if we could

1023
00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:03,000
find the over or the angels in this game, there's

1024
00:52:03,000 --> 00:52:05,719
got to be ways to play it. I think that's overall,

1025
00:52:06,719 --> 00:52:10,199
there's no way Seattle should be priced in this price range.

1026
00:52:10,559 --> 00:52:14,440
I'm even saying on one ninety out there fanatics in Caesar's.

1027
00:52:14,519 --> 00:52:16,760
So a lot of the public books are making you

1028
00:52:16,800 --> 00:52:20,119
pay because they think Seattle's hot. Not a believer.

1029
00:52:21,719 --> 00:52:25,840
Speaker 1: So a couple couple things I have to respond to here. One,

1030
00:52:26,599 --> 00:52:29,400
Tacoma has no relievers, so that's an issue. That is

1031
00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:32,000
a horrible bullpen right now. Down a triple A. I

1032
00:52:32,000 --> 00:52:34,079
don't think there's anyone that they really want to bring up,

1033
00:52:34,280 --> 00:52:36,159
not that they wouldn't just bring up someone to have

1034
00:52:36,559 --> 00:52:39,199
a warm body. But there's not any plus relievers down

1035
00:52:39,239 --> 00:52:42,239
there on that team right now. Two. Someone said Emerson

1036
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:46,239
Hancock is trash in the chat. Emerson Hancock. They moved

1037
00:52:46,280 --> 00:52:48,480
him to the bullpen at Tacoma, and suddenly he was

1038
00:52:48,519 --> 00:52:51,519
throwing ninety nine miles out And he came into that

1039
00:52:51,599 --> 00:52:54,320
game on Wednesday that I was talking about through ninety

1040
00:52:54,400 --> 00:52:56,480
seven ninety eight and looked great. So he is he

1041
00:52:56,599 --> 00:52:58,559
is a great option for that in my opinion, on

1042
00:52:58,639 --> 00:53:01,199
the bullpen, he's throwing harder than he ever has because

1043
00:53:01,239 --> 00:53:02,840
he's always been a starter for his whole career. And

1044
00:53:02,840 --> 00:53:05,480
I think they may have struck gold there with Hancock, Brian,

1045
00:53:05,519 --> 00:53:09,239
because he at no point until like three weeks ago,

1046
00:53:09,440 --> 00:53:12,400
he had never come out of the bullpen in affiliated ball,

1047
00:53:12,440 --> 00:53:15,239
which means the set that he showed up at the organization,

1048
00:53:15,519 --> 00:53:17,199
he was a starter, and he had been a starter

1049
00:53:17,440 --> 00:53:19,360
up until like a couple of weeks ago they moved

1050
00:53:19,400 --> 00:53:21,280
into the bullpens. Suddenly he only has to throw an

1051
00:53:21,320 --> 00:53:23,960
inning or two, guys, Velo's up to ninety eight ninety nine.

1052
00:53:24,079 --> 00:53:27,320
Don't sleep on Emerson Hancock. Trigg has something against Seattle.

1053
00:53:27,599 --> 00:53:30,000
You must be new to the show. I am so

1054
00:53:30,280 --> 00:53:33,440
heavily invested in the Mariners, like it's not even funny.

1055
00:53:33,599 --> 00:53:37,039
And if the Astros win this division, your boy is screwed.

1056
00:53:37,159 --> 00:53:41,400
So nothing against Seattle for me here. I have been

1057
00:53:41,440 --> 00:53:44,320
on them since May. I have them to win the division.

1058
00:53:44,519 --> 00:53:46,119
I have them to make the playoffs. I have them

1059
00:53:46,119 --> 00:53:48,320
to win the American League. To win the World Series,

1060
00:53:48,719 --> 00:53:52,719
I need Seattle dearly. I'm just handicapping the game for

1061
00:53:52,840 --> 00:53:55,880
what the game is today. So nothing against Seattle for me.

1062
00:53:56,079 --> 00:53:59,119
And yes, this is a Coldgate shirt. Someone commented on

1063
00:53:59,159 --> 00:54:02,519
my shirt through the Colgate shirt on because they play

1064
00:54:02,559 --> 00:54:06,000
Syracuse in football tonight, and because it's just me and

1065
00:54:06,039 --> 00:54:09,360
Brian today, I'm gonna give you a little free football

1066
00:54:09,440 --> 00:54:12,880
info here. Colegate's got a new head coach. It's the

1067
00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:16,079
guy that won a Division three national championship at Cortland.

1068
00:54:16,559 --> 00:54:19,320
It is he is. I think he's gonna do a

1069
00:54:19,320 --> 00:54:24,320
really good job for Colgate and this team. Colgate, right

1070
00:54:24,360 --> 00:54:27,400
in my backyard, Central New York has been bad for

1071
00:54:27,440 --> 00:54:29,960
a really long time. Their program kind of went to

1072
00:54:30,280 --> 00:54:33,400
shit to and ten the last couple of years. I

1073
00:54:33,440 --> 00:54:36,800
think they're gonna play Syracuse tough tonight. Now tough, considering

1074
00:54:36,920 --> 00:54:39,719
like the spreadest thirty seven and a half, I was

1075
00:54:39,800 --> 00:54:41,800
kind of hoping for forty. Maybe that was a little

1076
00:54:41,800 --> 00:54:44,440
bit greedy, Brian, But who knows. Someone may bet Syracuse

1077
00:54:44,480 --> 00:54:47,199
at some point today they like, you know that the

1078
00:54:47,239 --> 00:54:51,000
market likes to bet these FBS schools against fcs. If

1079
00:54:51,000 --> 00:54:53,000
that gets up to forty, your boys probably bet in

1080
00:54:53,000 --> 00:54:55,800
Colgate tonight. And this is yeah, Someone's like, was that

1081
00:54:55,960 --> 00:54:59,320
a cub shirt or a red shirt? Nope, Colgate raiders

1082
00:54:59,400 --> 00:55:02,360
Central New York, Hamilton, New York. So I just wanted

1083
00:55:02,360 --> 00:55:03,480
to clarify that. Go ahead.

1084
00:55:04,079 --> 00:55:05,679
Speaker 2: I just wanted to point out because I thought the

1085
00:55:05,719 --> 00:55:07,679
same thing. I saw you at the Colgate share, I go,

1086
00:55:07,760 --> 00:55:12,360
that's range, and then I saw they were play at Syracuse. Normally,

1087
00:55:13,639 --> 00:55:16,280
I know it's a baseball show. Normally, if the line

1088
00:55:16,320 --> 00:55:17,800
at thirty seven and a half, you don't see a

1089
00:55:17,800 --> 00:55:22,880
big change circa the probably takes more money in Vegas anywhere,

1090
00:55:22,880 --> 00:55:25,639
and they've got a few other states. Now, somebody just

1091
00:55:25,719 --> 00:55:28,000
hit Colgate brought it down to thirty five and a half.

1092
00:55:28,519 --> 00:55:31,719
So if you do want to play Colgate, grab that

1093
00:55:31,760 --> 00:55:33,639
thirty seven and a half now, because for a two

1094
00:55:33,679 --> 00:55:36,960
point change, in the line circus telling you right now,

1095
00:55:37,360 --> 00:55:40,320
somebody that they respect came in and bat Colgate and

1096
00:55:40,320 --> 00:55:43,079
they're dying for money to come in on Syracuse. So

1097
00:55:43,159 --> 00:55:45,039
if you are going to bet a game tonight and

1098
00:55:45,039 --> 00:55:48,119
you're not gonna use one of our regular players because

1099
00:55:48,119 --> 00:55:50,679
something for free, yeah, I could see playing Colgate right

1100
00:55:50,679 --> 00:55:51,840
now at thirty seven and a half.

1101
00:55:53,119 --> 00:55:55,039
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, like I thought it was the

1102
00:55:55,079 --> 00:55:57,360
ambitious to get higher. But I will tell you one

1103
00:55:57,360 --> 00:55:59,400
other thing about Syracuse is it's kind of like a

1104
00:55:59,480 --> 00:56:02,400
walk I talked to one of the season ticket holder,

1105
00:56:02,400 --> 00:56:04,320
a season ticket holder I know, well I'm at a

1106
00:56:04,360 --> 00:56:06,840
dinner the other night, and basically he was like, yeah,

1107
00:56:06,880 --> 00:56:09,960
this is pretty much a walkthrough. They got Clemson next week.

1108
00:56:10,000 --> 00:56:13,599
It's a road game, and you're just not gonna see you.

1109
00:56:13,719 --> 00:56:17,000
You're probably gonna spread the minutes around. So I'm actually seeing, well,

1110
00:56:17,000 --> 00:56:18,760
we can see it, because yeah, I think this is

1111
00:56:18,760 --> 00:56:22,480
gonna move quickly. So I am, hey, we we're trying.

1112
00:56:22,920 --> 00:56:26,400
Let's see what we still have here, because yeah, still

1113
00:56:26,440 --> 00:56:28,360
still there is still thirty seven and a half's out

1114
00:56:28,360 --> 00:56:32,719
there quite quite a few places. I am giving that

1115
00:56:32,840 --> 00:56:36,039
out for three percent right now, so you get one

1116
00:56:36,079 --> 00:56:38,480
of my football plays for free just because I did this,

1117
00:56:38,639 --> 00:56:40,760
because I wore the shirt. There's a great question from

1118
00:56:40,760 --> 00:56:42,840
the chat. So yeah, it's a baseball show. But I

1119
00:56:42,880 --> 00:56:46,360
know you guys want the paid plays. Someone was trying

1120
00:56:46,360 --> 00:56:48,480
to give him out in the chat earlier, So I'm

1121
00:56:48,480 --> 00:56:49,800
just gonna beat you too, and I'm just gonna give

1122
00:56:49,800 --> 00:56:53,199
it out myself. But I just locked that in right now.

1123
00:56:53,360 --> 00:56:57,400
Colgate plus thirty seven and a half last year, So

1124
00:56:57,440 --> 00:56:59,119
now that we're like like now, we just might as

1125
00:56:59,119 --> 00:57:01,000
well go into it now, now that we're now that

1126
00:57:01,039 --> 00:57:03,159
we're talking about it, there's only we've already got the

1127
00:57:03,159 --> 00:57:06,800
parlay locked in. There's only three minutes left. Last year,

1128
00:57:06,840 --> 00:57:09,239
the Patriot League team that came in and played Syracuse

1129
00:57:09,599 --> 00:57:13,199
was Holy Cross. I believe the final score of that

1130
00:57:13,280 --> 00:57:18,599
game was forty two to fourteen. Forty two to fourteen.

1131
00:57:19,559 --> 00:57:21,960
So that's what's that you're trying to do math in

1132
00:57:22,000 --> 00:57:25,400
my head forty two twenty eight point difference. My gut

1133
00:57:25,400 --> 00:57:27,320
says it's going to be a similar game. I think

1134
00:57:27,320 --> 00:57:29,960
you're gonna get a similar game right there to that

1135
00:57:30,119 --> 00:57:33,320
game because Colgates much much improved from what they were

1136
00:57:33,400 --> 00:57:37,039
last year. Syracuse is worse in my opinion. That's another thing.

1137
00:57:37,159 --> 00:57:40,320
Let me just make a point here. This Syracuse team

1138
00:57:40,400 --> 00:57:43,960
is not good. Like I just if there's one takeaway

1139
00:57:43,960 --> 00:57:46,679
from this show that you really take away other than

1140
00:57:46,679 --> 00:57:49,880
all the great baseball info we've given out today, Syracuse

1141
00:57:49,920 --> 00:57:52,679
football sucks this year. They are not good this They

1142
00:57:52,760 --> 00:57:55,639
lost everyone from last year. Kyle McCord was one of

1143
00:57:55,679 --> 00:57:57,960
the best quarterbacks we'll ever have here in Central New York.

1144
00:57:58,760 --> 00:58:01,559
They're just not a good foot and they've now played

1145
00:58:01,559 --> 00:58:04,880
Tennessee and yukon back to back weeks. I don't know

1146
00:58:04,920 --> 00:58:08,000
if they've announced guys out, but guys are definitely banged up,

1147
00:58:08,119 --> 00:58:10,039
and there's no way they're going to risk guys getting

1148
00:58:10,079 --> 00:58:13,119
hurt when they have Clemson on the road next week,

1149
00:58:13,719 --> 00:58:16,760
a game that Syracuse cares about. For whatever reason, set

1150
00:58:16,920 --> 00:58:20,119
Syracuse like has this like they think Clemson's their arrival

1151
00:58:20,599 --> 00:58:23,599
because like they're just delusional fans, but like Clemson doesn't

1152
00:58:23,599 --> 00:58:26,440
give a shit about Syracuse. For whatever reason, Syracuse cares

1153
00:58:26,480 --> 00:58:29,519
about Clemson just because, like six years ago, they upset

1154
00:58:29,559 --> 00:58:31,239
them on a Friday night as like a twenty four

1155
00:58:31,239 --> 00:58:34,480
point underdog. So for whatever reason, Cues really cares about

1156
00:58:34,519 --> 00:58:37,039
that Clemson game, and I have a feeling that most

1157
00:58:37,039 --> 00:58:39,639
of the starters will be out by halftime. So thirty

1158
00:58:39,679 --> 00:58:44,480
seven and a half points, Brian. Colgate Raiders head coach

1159
00:58:45,519 --> 00:58:48,719
uh Kurt Fitzpatrick won a D three national championship at

1160
00:58:48,760 --> 00:58:51,440
Cortland State, which is where Mallory went to college. So

1161
00:58:51,480 --> 00:58:54,119
that was two years ago. Very cool moment for Courtland,

1162
00:58:54,159 --> 00:58:56,079
and I think he's gonna do a great job at Colgates.

1163
00:58:56,079 --> 00:58:59,119
So just you never know what you're gonna get on

1164
00:58:59,159 --> 00:59:02,000
this show. And it turned into a college football show

1165
00:59:02,039 --> 00:59:02,840
for ten minutes, so.

1166
00:59:02,960 --> 00:59:05,000
Speaker 2: I ended up playing in my office. I just sent

1167
00:59:05,039 --> 00:59:06,559
it to clients for one and a half star.

1168
00:59:07,960 --> 00:59:11,840
Speaker 1: Well, then we're all on Coldgate tonight. Yeah, listen to

1169
00:59:11,920 --> 00:59:13,719
work in progress. Thirty seven and a half points. A

1170
00:59:13,760 --> 00:59:17,400
lot of points though, so let's go. Let's go Raiders.

1171
00:59:17,559 --> 00:59:20,519
Great helmet, by the way, Brian, their helmet. They went

1172
00:59:20,599 --> 00:59:23,480
back to the old sort of Coldgate logo where it

1173
00:59:23,559 --> 00:59:28,119
just says Gate with the apostrophe, very very underrated logo.

1174
00:59:28,199 --> 00:59:30,960
This is the new style logo. This like kind of

1175
00:59:31,000 --> 00:59:34,039
cubs looking sea. But back in the day they had

1176
00:59:34,079 --> 00:59:37,199
like the sea with the apostrophe Gate and the helmets.

1177
00:59:37,320 --> 00:59:40,239
Just say Gate tremendous helmet. I saw. I was at

1178
00:59:40,239 --> 00:59:44,320
the Colgate opener against Mommoth and that was I saw it.

1179
00:59:44,360 --> 00:59:48,159
That was very cool. So all right, we are at

1180
00:59:48,159 --> 00:59:51,320
the end of the show. Wow, free client football plays

1181
00:59:51,320 --> 00:59:53,039
from both of us on the show. How about that.

1182
00:59:53,159 --> 00:59:55,079
I bet you guys didn't think that you were going

1183
00:59:55,159 --> 00:59:58,159
to leave this show betting the Colgate Raiders tonight plus

1184
00:59:58,239 --> 01:00:01,639
thirty seven and whatever points. But here we are, and

1185
01:00:01,679 --> 01:00:04,960
we also got a two teamer for you that we

1186
01:00:05,079 --> 01:00:07,320
both very much agree on. So really more of a

1187
01:00:07,360 --> 01:00:10,960
consensus two teamer tonight, and it's going to be pretty

1188
01:00:10,960 --> 01:00:13,159
standard two team odds. But I will just for the

1189
01:00:13,159 --> 01:00:16,400
heck of it, run it here quickly. We have what

1190
01:00:16,480 --> 01:00:18,199
did you say? It was minus one ten on that

1191
01:00:19,239 --> 01:00:20,199
Rangers under.

1192
01:00:20,400 --> 01:00:24,159
Speaker 2: Texas under minus seven minus one ten and yours is

1193
01:00:24,199 --> 01:00:25,000
plus one hundred.

1194
01:00:26,239 --> 01:00:28,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, so we'll take plus two to eighty one on

1195
01:00:28,400 --> 01:00:31,599
that parlay and obviously shop it around, you know, but

1196
01:00:31,719 --> 01:00:35,039
give or take. So that's your parlay today, Rangers Mets

1197
01:00:35,679 --> 01:00:39,519
under seven and a half, Yankees Red Sox over nine,

1198
01:00:40,199 --> 01:00:42,119
and then a separate bet. You said you put one

1199
01:00:42,119 --> 01:00:45,719
and a half units on Colgate. Yeah, love it. I

1200
01:00:45,760 --> 01:00:48,039
gave it out for three units to my clients, so

1201
01:00:48,039 --> 01:00:51,199
so feel free to go ahead and throw some units

1202
01:00:51,199 --> 01:00:53,280
on the Colgate Raiders because that's what our clients will

1203
01:00:53,280 --> 01:00:55,760
be doing as well. Plus thirty seven and a half

1204
01:00:55,760 --> 01:00:57,760
which might be gone by the time off the show

1205
01:00:58,320 --> 01:01:00,679
because people love to copy Circus, so if they move,

1206
01:01:01,000 --> 01:01:03,599
you can pretty much rest assured that these other books

1207
01:01:03,599 --> 01:01:05,039
are going to move it. But that's what you get

1208
01:01:05,079 --> 01:01:07,159
for tuning in live right here. That's what you get

1209
01:01:07,199 --> 01:01:09,480
for showing up live. So we appreciate you guys. Over

1210
01:01:09,559 --> 01:01:12,360
a thousand of you in the chat live, which is awesome.

1211
01:01:12,960 --> 01:01:15,920
It's ten am. That's all for us today. We will

1212
01:01:15,920 --> 01:01:18,760
see you guys on Monday. Good luck this weekend, cash

1213
01:01:18,760 --> 01:01:24,400
all your tickets, have a great weekend. We'll see you Monday.