WEBVTT 1 00:00:06.000 --> 00:00:08.679 This week's episode of the Tribecast is brought to you 2 00:00:08.759 --> 00:00:20.600 by the Texas Tribune Membership program. Hello and welcome to 3 00:00:20.879 --> 00:00:24.719 the Tribecast for Tuesday, July twenty ninth. I'm Eleanor Klebanoff, 4 00:00:24.879 --> 00:00:28.640 law and politics reporter here at the Tribune, joined this 5 00:00:28.760 --> 00:00:33.359 week by A. Matthew Watkins stand in politics editor, Jasper Sharer. 6 00:00:33.600 --> 00:00:35.719 Jasper, thanks for being here, of course, thanks for having me. 7 00:00:36.119 --> 00:00:42.719 Matthew is in luxurious, beautiful Porto ransis the place to 8 00:00:42.759 --> 00:00:45.920 be in the summer, and I would make fun of it. 9 00:00:46.000 --> 00:00:50.159 But we are in the Texas capital, so not much better. 10 00:00:51.240 --> 00:00:53.640 I am curious, Jasper, before we jump in. This is 11 00:00:53.679 --> 00:00:56.520 your We're in the special session. You're now an editor. 12 00:00:56.600 --> 00:01:00.960 It's your first session in how many years that you're not? Sorry, 13 00:01:00.960 --> 00:01:02.640 I should tee that up, first session? How many years 14 00:01:02.679 --> 00:01:04.400 that you are not on the floor of the capitol. 15 00:01:04.599 --> 00:01:08.560 Oh man, Well, I started covering state politics as a 16 00:01:08.560 --> 00:01:13.000 reporter right around when the Dems broke quorum. I guess 17 00:01:13.239 --> 00:01:15.519 you know, I might have specified broke korum the first 18 00:01:15.519 --> 00:01:18.319 time if we get a second one momentarily here. But 19 00:01:19.280 --> 00:01:22.040 so twenty twenty one, the first special session there was 20 00:01:22.040 --> 00:01:22.840 my first. 21 00:01:23.000 --> 00:01:24.920 Yeah, not the first time two thousand and three, but 22 00:01:25.040 --> 00:01:27.200 the right right first time. 23 00:01:27.079 --> 00:01:28.000 Also probably wasn't the first. 24 00:01:28.000 --> 00:01:30.040 The first tis time history. 25 00:01:30.760 --> 00:01:32.840 John Morritz would say, you know right, this was the 26 00:01:32.879 --> 00:01:33.319 second time. 27 00:01:33.400 --> 00:01:35.000 It is a longer memory than me. Yes. 28 00:01:35.560 --> 00:01:37.319 So are you missing being on the floor. 29 00:01:37.680 --> 00:01:38.120 I think so. 30 00:01:38.280 --> 00:01:40.840 I mean it's been sort of slow so far, so 31 00:01:40.879 --> 00:01:44.000 it's you know, I miss kind of the idea of 32 00:01:44.079 --> 00:01:46.879 being around the hustle and bustle. But I still feel 33 00:01:47.239 --> 00:01:50.079 I can live vicariously through through you guys being there. 34 00:01:50.200 --> 00:01:53.079 So do you want to trade Maybe I'll maybe I'll 35 00:01:53.200 --> 00:01:55.000 make my way down there, just to relive the glory 36 00:01:55.079 --> 00:01:55.920 days a little bit. 37 00:01:56.000 --> 00:01:59.799 Yeah, we love that. Well, we're going to jump right in. 38 00:01:59.799 --> 00:02:02.640 You know. Last week we had an episode with the 39 00:02:02.719 --> 00:02:05.159 chair of the Texas Democratic Party, Kendall Scudder, sort of 40 00:02:05.159 --> 00:02:08.479 looking at the dems prospects for the twenty twenty six midterms. 41 00:02:09.240 --> 00:02:10.439 This week we are going. 42 00:02:10.280 --> 00:02:12.879 To look at the other side of the aisle, the 43 00:02:12.879 --> 00:02:16.240 Republican's prospects. I will say we did extend an invitation 44 00:02:16.400 --> 00:02:20.840 to GOP chair Abraham George, who it wasn't the right 45 00:02:20.840 --> 00:02:23.680 time for him to join us, but he said he 46 00:02:23.719 --> 00:02:25.800 plans to join in the future. So we will extend 47 00:02:25.800 --> 00:02:29.479 that invitation and open invitation to Chairman George Yes anytime. 48 00:02:30.520 --> 00:02:33.919 So in his stead we have the Dean of. 49 00:02:33.879 --> 00:02:38.120 Texas Talk Radio, Mark Davis, on the air for more 50 00:02:38.159 --> 00:02:42.199 than forty years in the Dallas Fort Worth area. His 51 00:02:42.639 --> 00:02:44.759 bio and I think we would agree with this, says 52 00:02:45.159 --> 00:02:49.560 the foremost conservative voice locally and nationally, a morning fixture 53 00:02:49.599 --> 00:02:52.759 on six sixty Am The Answer. He is also a 54 00:02:52.800 --> 00:02:57.000 columnist for the Fort Worth Start Telegram, McClatchy Newspapers, Newsweek, 55 00:02:57.039 --> 00:02:57.840 and town Hall. 56 00:02:58.000 --> 00:02:59.199 Mark, thanks for joining. 57 00:02:58.960 --> 00:03:02.280 Us, great pleasure. Thank you guys, appreciate being here. 58 00:03:02.439 --> 00:03:04.439 Yeah, well, you know, I want to sort of start 59 00:03:04.479 --> 00:03:07.199 before we jump into twenty twenty six and talk about 60 00:03:07.800 --> 00:03:09.400 you know, look back in time a little bit and 61 00:03:09.400 --> 00:03:12.719 talk about twenty twenty four, you know, just a gangbusters 62 00:03:12.759 --> 00:03:18.080 election for Republicans in Texas nationally. I'm curious, Mark, were 63 00:03:18.120 --> 00:03:22.840 you anticipating such a good year for Republicans nationally, you know, 64 00:03:22.840 --> 00:03:24.639 with Trump at the top of the ticket. How to 65 00:03:24.719 --> 00:03:27.000 sort of line up with your expectations. 66 00:03:27.680 --> 00:03:31.159 It's everything is relative. And as I'm sitting here doing 67 00:03:31.159 --> 00:03:34.000 shows in this room, talking about the presidential race, talking 68 00:03:34.039 --> 00:03:39.280 about national issues. Talking about Texas issues, the Texas landscape 69 00:03:40.360 --> 00:03:44.000 seemed pretty baked in. Democrats have had a long and 70 00:03:44.159 --> 00:03:46.719 tortured experience ever since I've been back in my native 71 00:03:46.719 --> 00:03:50.080 Texas nineteen ninety four. Oh, we're going to turn it purple. 72 00:03:50.120 --> 00:03:52.919 We're going to turn it blue. Guys, how's that working out? 73 00:03:52.960 --> 00:03:55.360 And I don't know, never say never, but that's not 74 00:03:55.439 --> 00:03:56.680 happening even in the near term. 75 00:03:56.719 --> 00:03:56.840 Now. 76 00:03:56.919 --> 00:04:00.439 Nationally it was not as cut and dry because Trump 77 00:04:00.520 --> 00:04:03.039 is always the X factory. There's going to be hot 78 00:04:03.080 --> 00:04:07.919 passions obviously for him. That is going to spark hot 79 00:04:07.960 --> 00:04:13.800 passions against him. So I think what solidified my confidence? 80 00:04:14.319 --> 00:04:19.680 I mean Trump, He's a known entity, He's Trump. I think, 81 00:04:20.000 --> 00:04:23.519 you know the level of positivity he's going to attract, 82 00:04:23.920 --> 00:04:26.480 you know, the high level of negativity that's going to 83 00:04:26.519 --> 00:04:29.319 be there to meet those positive folks, those supporters on 84 00:04:29.399 --> 00:04:32.800 the battlefield. So the real difference was what were the 85 00:04:32.800 --> 00:04:36.199 Democrats going to do? And as things just got progressively 86 00:04:36.360 --> 00:04:42.040 worse for the Democrats presidentially from the obvious even my 87 00:04:42.160 --> 00:04:45.199 dog knew it, cognitive decline of Joe Biden, and then 88 00:04:45.240 --> 00:04:49.480 they give him the hook and then forward the Kamala 89 00:04:49.519 --> 00:04:53.560 Harris candidacy, without a single vote being cast for her, 90 00:04:53.600 --> 00:04:55.160 without a saying I mean here, I am doing a 91 00:04:55.160 --> 00:04:59.279 conservative talk to saying Democrats, I feel for you. I'm 92 00:04:59.319 --> 00:05:03.160 taking calls from Democrats saying could we please have a primary? 93 00:05:03.319 --> 00:05:06.040 Could we please have four or five people? And maybe 94 00:05:06.079 --> 00:05:10.279 Kamala would prevail in that scrum or maybe not, but 95 00:05:10.360 --> 00:05:13.519 at least something that resembles fair competition. That did not 96 00:05:13.639 --> 00:05:16.720 serve her well. Kamala was also not served well by 97 00:05:16.759 --> 00:05:20.800 her complete, near complete lack of campaign skill set. It 98 00:05:20.839 --> 00:05:24.680 was one of the truly worst campaigns ever run by anyone, 99 00:05:25.120 --> 00:05:28.279 and as that began to take shape, the Trump victory 100 00:05:28.319 --> 00:05:31.480 became a lot easier to envision because while there were 101 00:05:31.519 --> 00:05:34.639 a lot of things that were unknown, a lot of 102 00:05:34.639 --> 00:05:37.279 things that were hidden factories yet to be played out, 103 00:05:37.600 --> 00:05:39.839 one thing that was clear, and that was the Democrats 104 00:05:40.360 --> 00:05:43.160 and dug themselves an enormous hole, which is part of 105 00:05:43.199 --> 00:05:43.839 why Trump won. 106 00:05:44.959 --> 00:05:48.639 It's such a like how quickly things evolve in politics 107 00:05:48.639 --> 00:05:51.000 that Trump was the known quantity in that election, Like 108 00:05:51.000 --> 00:05:53.519 when you think about twenty sixteen or everyone was like, 109 00:05:54.040 --> 00:05:56.000 what the heck is happening with this guy? 110 00:05:56.079 --> 00:06:00.560 And now it's like the safe choice, the more predictable choice, the. 111 00:06:00.560 --> 00:06:05.920 Familiar, the familiarity, and even it even gets weirder that 112 00:06:06.000 --> 00:06:09.040 with all of his personal paccadillos, with all of his 113 00:06:09.319 --> 00:06:11.879 you know, wheels off behavioral things, one of the reasons 114 00:06:11.879 --> 00:06:15.639 he won is that he was the normalcy candidate that 115 00:06:16.879 --> 00:06:19.079 I know. That's the kind of thing that I mean 116 00:06:19.279 --> 00:06:22.399 what but by that I mean not by being a 117 00:06:22.439 --> 00:06:26.040 conventional candidate in his own way, but through things, you know, 118 00:06:26.079 --> 00:06:29.319 I feel, pardon me, things like border normalcy, which means 119 00:06:29.399 --> 00:06:32.680 having one gender, normalcy, which means knowing how many there are, 120 00:06:34.160 --> 00:06:38.399 a certain trade normalcy, which involves bringing the playing field 121 00:06:39.000 --> 00:06:42.000 into a better level place. So even in the way 122 00:06:42.040 --> 00:06:45.360 that Nixon, who is not real popular one in nineteen 123 00:06:45.399 --> 00:06:47.879 sixty eight and seventy two, by being kind of a 124 00:06:48.000 --> 00:06:50.800 normalcy candidate, even though he might not have been that popular, 125 00:06:51.160 --> 00:06:53.160 a lot of voters said, well, I can think what 126 00:06:53.279 --> 00:06:55.959 I think about him, but it seems like either he's 127 00:06:56.040 --> 00:06:58.560 less crazy or the other people are too crazy. And 128 00:06:58.600 --> 00:07:01.040 that too was part of the twenty twenty four when. 129 00:07:02.680 --> 00:07:06.199 Yeah, it's an interesting comparison to that, to that Nixon 130 00:07:06.240 --> 00:07:11.079 election and just sort of you know people, you know, 131 00:07:11.120 --> 00:07:13.120 without condemning any of our elected officials sort of the 132 00:07:13.439 --> 00:07:15.040 devil you know, versus the. 133 00:07:14.959 --> 00:07:15.600 Devil you don't. 134 00:07:16.120 --> 00:07:17.959 Yeah, I would say it was pretty striking to see 135 00:07:18.480 --> 00:07:21.839 a fourteen point win in Texas. I mean I didn't 136 00:07:21.879 --> 00:07:25.800 I don't think any of the polling, you know. If anything, 137 00:07:27.040 --> 00:07:30.600 I think the one of the takeaways was just, you know, 138 00:07:30.680 --> 00:07:34.319 we can only rely on polling in Texas so much 139 00:07:34.399 --> 00:07:37.160 coming out of some of these recent cycles that you know, 140 00:07:37.279 --> 00:07:39.639 not universally across the board. I think there were some 141 00:07:40.279 --> 00:07:43.120 posters who got pretty close, but I don't think anyone 142 00:07:43.279 --> 00:07:46.920 was fully predicting fourteen points for Trump. I think it 143 00:07:46.959 --> 00:07:48.720 was eight and a half for Cruise at the end 144 00:07:48.759 --> 00:07:52.399 of the day. So and that really sets the tone 145 00:07:52.439 --> 00:07:56.399 in kind of a problematic way for Democrats heading into 146 00:07:56.439 --> 00:07:59.399 twenty twenty six, even though folks are talking about them, 147 00:07:59.759 --> 00:08:02.439 you know, having just sort of the national wind at 148 00:08:02.439 --> 00:08:05.319 their back just by virtue of it being a Republican 149 00:08:05.319 --> 00:08:08.759 in the White House midterm cycle. But on the other hand, 150 00:08:08.759 --> 00:08:13.560 we're coming off really a landslide blowout two years ago. 151 00:08:13.759 --> 00:08:17.360 Right, I Mean, conventional wisdom would say twenty twenty six 152 00:08:17.399 --> 00:08:20.120 a midterm year. The president is you know, dealing with 153 00:08:20.160 --> 00:08:24.959 some unpopularity issues passing, you know, some policies that we 154 00:08:25.000 --> 00:08:27.079 will probably you know, by twenty twenty six be seeing 155 00:08:27.120 --> 00:08:30.800 the impact of in one direction or another, you know, 156 00:08:31.040 --> 00:08:34.480 putting aside the ongoing redistricting fight that could change things 157 00:08:34.480 --> 00:08:37.120 on the congressional front. Mark what is sort of your 158 00:08:37.200 --> 00:08:40.120 crystal ball telling you at this point for you know, 159 00:08:40.399 --> 00:08:42.399 the lay of the land coming into twenty twenty six. 160 00:08:42.440 --> 00:08:46.600 For Republicans, let's talk about the sort of a midterm 161 00:08:46.679 --> 00:08:49.840 map that you referred to the way it usually goes 162 00:08:49.960 --> 00:08:54.960 for Republican and Democrat presidents alike, is that when when 163 00:08:55.000 --> 00:08:57.360 you win the White House, the first midterm is the 164 00:08:57.399 --> 00:09:00.399 pendulum swinging back the other way. And the other thing 165 00:09:00.399 --> 00:09:03.879 that usually happens in a president's second term. Ask Bush, 166 00:09:04.120 --> 00:09:09.559 ask Reagan. Everybody starts to get tired of you. It's 167 00:09:09.600 --> 00:09:12.279 like a coach, you lose the locker room. But here's 168 00:09:12.320 --> 00:09:19.279 the thing, and history may record that Trump losing, I know, 169 00:09:19.559 --> 00:09:23.480 did he the Trump not regating the White House, not 170 00:09:23.639 --> 00:09:26.919 reoccupying the White House in twenty twenty might have been 171 00:09:26.919 --> 00:09:30.720 the absolute best thing to happen to him, because this 172 00:09:30.799 --> 00:09:33.039 Trump two point, Oh imagine if he had won it 173 00:09:33.120 --> 00:09:35.240 had been, first of all, you'd be gone by now 174 00:09:35.279 --> 00:09:37.519 who knows what we'd have. And I take calls every 175 00:09:37.559 --> 00:09:40.480 day from people who say God's timing, Mark God's timing. 176 00:09:40.519 --> 00:09:44.399 I'll leave that to individuals to discern. But there's no 177 00:09:44.440 --> 00:09:46.240 doubt that he was able to hit the ground running 178 00:09:46.279 --> 00:09:50.200 like a freshly inaugurated first termer. And talk I mean 179 00:09:50.360 --> 00:09:53.039 energy with a capital E, rather than the kind of 180 00:09:53.120 --> 00:09:57.039 fatigue that can kick in at Bush's second term, Reagan's 181 00:09:57.039 --> 00:09:59.840 second term, Obama's second term. There's something about that th 182 00:10:00.039 --> 00:10:03.919 if sixth, seventh, eighth year of being president where everything 183 00:10:04.000 --> 00:10:07.639 just starts to become a slog. Trump has been spared 184 00:10:07.919 --> 00:10:10.240 all of that, coming back for a two point zero that, 185 00:10:10.440 --> 00:10:14.840 like the Grover Cleveland metoreum, is non consecutive, and it 186 00:10:15.080 --> 00:10:17.000 means that it's a it's a kind of a fresh 187 00:10:17.039 --> 00:10:20.799 start that the usual conventional second drug president does not Yet. 188 00:10:20.840 --> 00:10:23.639 So here's how this goes to the midterm. The fatigue 189 00:10:23.639 --> 00:10:25.960 factor might not be so large, and Trump may be 190 00:10:26.919 --> 00:10:29.039 I mean, listen, these first six months have been exhausting. 191 00:10:29.120 --> 00:10:31.519 I mean for critics and fans alike, just keeping track. 192 00:10:31.759 --> 00:10:33.399 You know, the usual saying is, you know, are you. 193 00:10:33.519 --> 00:10:35.639 Are you tired of the winning yet? You know, and 194 00:10:35.679 --> 00:10:38.000 it hasn't all been winning, and some of it's been difficult, 195 00:10:38.000 --> 00:10:40.440 and there are critics to be found around every corner. 196 00:10:40.840 --> 00:10:45.159 But it may be that that pure results and a 197 00:10:45.279 --> 00:10:49.320 kind of an eye opening change in the kind of 198 00:10:49.440 --> 00:10:53.240 voters that Trump is attracting, poaching away some of the 199 00:10:53.279 --> 00:10:57.840 working class, poaching away. Listen, that implies poaching, implies theft, 200 00:10:57.879 --> 00:11:01.440 like you're not entitled. Increasing numbers young voters, increasing numbers 201 00:11:01.440 --> 00:11:04.720 of minority voters. If this continues, you can't help but 202 00:11:04.759 --> 00:11:07.639 feel pretty good about Republicans and the midterms. But then 203 00:11:07.759 --> 00:11:09.639 the lesson of all life kicks in, and that is, 204 00:11:09.679 --> 00:11:14.080 don't ever get comfortable. Also, the midterms are forever. Primaries 205 00:11:14.120 --> 00:11:16.840 in Texas in March November of next year is like 206 00:11:16.879 --> 00:11:21.039 on Carl Sagan's cosmic calendar. It's it's the deep deep distance. 207 00:11:21.200 --> 00:11:23.360 So the only thing is certain in life has change. 208 00:11:23.559 --> 00:11:26.360 Pendulums can swing in a variety of ways. But you 209 00:11:26.559 --> 00:11:28.200 have to say, if the elections were held right now, 210 00:11:28.200 --> 00:11:30.799 they'd go pretty well for Republicans. But they're not held 211 00:11:30.879 --> 00:11:31.240 right now. 212 00:11:32.159 --> 00:11:33.960 Right and if you think about everything that's happened in 213 00:11:34.000 --> 00:11:36.639 the last six months, you know, and then how long 214 00:11:36.720 --> 00:11:40.480 we have until the midterms. It's like that could go dependulent, 215 00:11:40.519 --> 00:11:43.360 could swing back and forth, and just how quickly think 216 00:11:43.360 --> 00:11:46.600 Trump moves, you know, through everything. It could really go 217 00:11:46.600 --> 00:11:48.320 in a lot of directions between now and then. 218 00:11:48.399 --> 00:11:51.039 Right yeah, I mean you think back to that crazy 219 00:11:51.039 --> 00:11:53.320 period in July a year ago where you get an 220 00:11:53.720 --> 00:11:56.879 assassination attempt to change in who the you know, presumed 221 00:11:56.960 --> 00:11:58.679 Democratic nominee is going to be at the top of 222 00:11:58.679 --> 00:12:01.919 the ticket, like you know, let alone a year and 223 00:12:01.960 --> 00:12:02.240 a half. 224 00:12:02.240 --> 00:12:04.600 These things can change, you know, on a on a dime. 225 00:12:04.799 --> 00:12:07.960 And I think you know, there's also the conversation about 226 00:12:08.240 --> 00:12:12.600 who ends up being the nominee for for Republicans, I guess, 227 00:12:12.759 --> 00:12:15.360 you know, the various nominees, not just for the US 228 00:12:15.399 --> 00:12:19.159 Senate race that everyone's talking about these days. But you know, 229 00:12:19.200 --> 00:12:22.360 I think that could you know, that's another thing that 230 00:12:22.360 --> 00:12:24.320 has to play out before we have any sense of 231 00:12:25.120 --> 00:12:27.039 what November a year and a half from now, will 232 00:12:27.039 --> 00:12:27.399 look like. 233 00:12:27.879 --> 00:12:28.480 Right right. 234 00:12:28.960 --> 00:12:30.759 I will share a fun fact, which is that you 235 00:12:30.799 --> 00:12:34.960 mentioned Grover Cleveland, the only other non consecutive president I 236 00:12:35.279 --> 00:12:38.080 you might know this. My cat is named after Grover Cleveland. 237 00:12:38.360 --> 00:12:39.000 And God knows that. 238 00:12:39.159 --> 00:12:39.480 Yeah. 239 00:12:39.519 --> 00:12:40.720 And I actually adopted him. 240 00:12:40.759 --> 00:12:42.600 The reason he's named after a president at all is 241 00:12:42.639 --> 00:12:44.759 that I adopted him on the eve of the twenty 242 00:12:44.759 --> 00:12:48.000 sixteen election. I was living in rural Pennsylvania, was covering 243 00:12:48.000 --> 00:12:50.679 the election quite a great I was out at Trump 244 00:12:50.759 --> 00:12:52.720 rallies all the time. I was out in Scranton with 245 00:12:53.200 --> 00:12:56.919 Hillary and out with you know, Trump. And and I 246 00:12:57.000 --> 00:12:59.960 adopted him, you know, maybe like right around Halloween, so 247 00:13:00.120 --> 00:13:02.879 right before and then I thought I'd name him the 248 00:13:02.919 --> 00:13:06.799 second most catlike name of a president, just Grover, the 249 00:13:06.799 --> 00:13:07.639 first being. 250 00:13:09.039 --> 00:13:10.840 Millard Garfield. 251 00:13:14.360 --> 00:13:16.360 I'm gonna I'm gonna go Millard Millard. 252 00:13:19.679 --> 00:13:20.960 I approve that is good. 253 00:13:21.080 --> 00:13:23.480 And now it's funny because we I did not realize 254 00:13:23.480 --> 00:13:26.039 that that was the election, you know, of course, you 255 00:13:26.080 --> 00:13:27.759 know where at that time, I didn't know who would win. 256 00:13:27.799 --> 00:13:28.600 But I also didn't know. 257 00:13:28.519 --> 00:13:30.320 That he would go on to be the next very prescient, 258 00:13:32.120 --> 00:13:36.320 non consecutive president. What did you say, God's timing there, you. 259 00:13:36.279 --> 00:13:37.480 Go, It works in a number of ways. 260 00:13:37.519 --> 00:13:40.480 Yeah, Well, detail real quick. 261 00:13:40.360 --> 00:13:42.000 On the notion of things that could change. Because you're 262 00:13:42.000 --> 00:13:45.279 sitting there, we all agree it is July about to 263 00:13:45.279 --> 00:13:48.799 the August the primaries are still a good way down 264 00:13:48.799 --> 00:13:51.080 the road in November, seems to be on the district rise. 265 00:13:51.559 --> 00:13:54.240 But if you are a Democrat and you're and your thinking, 266 00:13:54.480 --> 00:13:56.799 and pardon the way this sounds, you're looking for something 267 00:13:56.840 --> 00:13:59.879 to go wrong, as a Republicans do. When Democrats something 268 00:14:00.120 --> 00:14:02.600 wrong that we could weaponize, that we could take advantage 269 00:14:02.600 --> 00:14:05.200 of that we can turn to our advantage. Look at 270 00:14:05.200 --> 00:14:07.919 what they would be there really would be either the economy, 271 00:14:08.039 --> 00:14:12.639 the border, the world and the world go crazy. I mean, 272 00:14:12.679 --> 00:14:16.600 if we get a Russia Ukraine East deal, if we 273 00:14:16.679 --> 00:14:20.120 get some end to Israel and Ammas where they can 274 00:14:20.200 --> 00:14:22.879 actually be defeated, we can have actual peace in the 275 00:14:22.879 --> 00:14:26.840 Middle East. On the economy, inflation seems pretty under control 276 00:14:26.919 --> 00:14:29.279 right now. The tariffs that everybody thought we'd be, you know, 277 00:14:29.279 --> 00:14:31.360 in our front yard eating our neighbor's liver because the 278 00:14:31.399 --> 00:14:33.360 terriffs were going to destroy us and send us into 279 00:14:33.559 --> 00:14:37.440 fourteen recessions and sixteen depressions, it simply has not happened. 280 00:14:39.279 --> 00:14:42.960 The things that in the border seems silly me secure, 281 00:14:43.720 --> 00:14:47.320 that's what's the thing that's going to go wrong. What 282 00:14:47.559 --> 00:14:51.240 I guess, the economy always can, the world always can. 283 00:14:52.399 --> 00:14:56.039 But boy, It's one wonders where the bottom drops at 284 00:14:56.240 --> 00:14:58.799 what we would need to have happen that would suddenly 285 00:14:58.840 --> 00:15:03.639 be such a chink in Trump's armor, such an enormous 286 00:15:03.639 --> 00:15:06.200 hole for him to dig out of. Again, anything's possible, 287 00:15:06.240 --> 00:15:08.480 But that's part of my confidence is high because the 288 00:15:08.480 --> 00:15:11.000 things he actually ran on are things that actually for 289 00:15:11.080 --> 00:15:13.320 the moment, seem to be working well. 290 00:15:13.360 --> 00:15:14.799 And I think, and we'll talk about this with some 291 00:15:14.840 --> 00:15:18.200 Texas candidates as well, like they're certainly in Texas a 292 00:15:18.240 --> 00:15:22.000 sense of like it would have to be significantly wrong, 293 00:15:22.679 --> 00:15:25.799 you know, even tech for Texas Republicans particularly to turn 294 00:15:25.799 --> 00:15:29.840 on President Trump. But you know, there are certain candidates 295 00:15:29.879 --> 00:15:32.360 in Texas who sometime seem a little impervious and to 296 00:15:32.399 --> 00:15:34.440 your question, know what could go wrong? What could go 297 00:15:34.720 --> 00:15:38.279 so wrong that it would change the political calculus or 298 00:15:38.320 --> 00:15:41.519 the common wisdom. Let's take a quick break for a 299 00:15:41.559 --> 00:15:43.360 sponsor message, and then we'll get into some of. 300 00:15:43.320 --> 00:15:45.159 These Texas specific races. 301 00:15:46.240 --> 00:15:50.480 Today's episode is supported by members of the Texas Tribune. 302 00:15:50.559 --> 00:15:54.679 Texas needs trusted journalism. Help sustain fact based reporting with 303 00:15:54.759 --> 00:15:57.960 your donation. Become a member of the Texas Tribune today 304 00:15:58.200 --> 00:16:03.720 at Texastribune dot org. Slash donate Texas Tribune dot org 305 00:16:03.840 --> 00:16:07.840 slash donate. Well, you know, Mark, obviously, when I talk 306 00:16:07.879 --> 00:16:11.559 about sort of teflon candidates, let's talk about the Cornyn 307 00:16:11.600 --> 00:16:16.320 Paxton race for US Senate. We you know, I know 308 00:16:16.360 --> 00:16:18.759 you've talked to John Cornyn plenty of times in your career. 309 00:16:18.799 --> 00:16:21.559 I'm you know, our long time. 310 00:16:21.919 --> 00:16:27.240 US senator facing the toughest primary of his career. What 311 00:16:27.279 --> 00:16:29.080 are you sort of reading in the tea leaves there 312 00:16:29.120 --> 00:16:32.440 and or by Tilei's I mean very clear polling that 313 00:16:32.480 --> 00:16:34.679 he is falling behind. 314 00:16:35.000 --> 00:16:40.279 He Gosh, this is we could do five episodes on 315 00:16:40.799 --> 00:16:44.360 this alone. Cornan has been a fixture for a really 316 00:16:44.399 --> 00:16:49.120 long time. Conservative callers have been calling me for a 317 00:16:49.240 --> 00:16:52.679 very long time talking about how dissatisfying they are with Cornyn. 318 00:16:53.080 --> 00:16:55.720 Surely this time we're going to primary him. Surely, this 319 00:16:55.840 --> 00:16:58.759 time there's going to be a more bold conservative. And 320 00:16:58.799 --> 00:17:02.399 this is before the ascendants. Yere Trump and it simply 321 00:17:02.879 --> 00:17:06.799 never ever happened. Was it Steve Stockman who came within 322 00:17:07.079 --> 00:17:10.480 forty of him in twenty fourteen or so, That's as 323 00:17:10.519 --> 00:17:16.119 close as anybody's gotten. He's been untouchable. Now, nobody has 324 00:17:16.119 --> 00:17:21.240 been running against him named Ken Paxton. So let's go chronologically. 325 00:17:22.039 --> 00:17:25.440 If we're talking a few months ago, the Attorney General 326 00:17:26.039 --> 00:17:29.039 is someone who has taken some slings and arrows, been 327 00:17:29.039 --> 00:17:34.000 through some controversies, and emerged virtually unscathed. You could not 328 00:17:34.240 --> 00:17:38.359 find somebody who is a staunch Packston supporter who said, 329 00:17:39.039 --> 00:17:43.160 some of this tax stuff, I'm out, some of this 330 00:17:43.200 --> 00:17:45.599 courtroom stuff, I'm out. Even some of the personal stuff, 331 00:17:45.640 --> 00:17:48.119 I'm out. You could not find that. But that was 332 00:17:48.359 --> 00:17:52.200 very three months ago. Speaking of change, you could say 333 00:17:52.519 --> 00:17:56.400 things have changed. So now with Angela having filed for divorce, 334 00:17:56.559 --> 00:17:59.480 and with the corn And team clearly willing to come 335 00:17:59.480 --> 00:18:03.319 out with some I mean brutal as coming after the 336 00:18:03.680 --> 00:18:06.119 well brutal and accurate. That's what makes them so brutal 337 00:18:07.079 --> 00:18:09.960 about the personal stuff. The big X factor here, the 338 00:18:10.000 --> 00:18:14.400 big variable is how much will that hurt? Can it 339 00:18:14.480 --> 00:18:17.400 can't not hurt him? If it's only one or two 340 00:18:17.440 --> 00:18:19.680 percent of people who go, dude, I love you, but 341 00:18:19.759 --> 00:18:24.279 I'm out, then of course he's still viable. Some internal polling, 342 00:18:24.279 --> 00:18:26.640 which is almost always useless when Kennedi's go, oh, I've 343 00:18:26.680 --> 00:18:28.839 got my own polling, Sure you do. They tell you 344 00:18:28.920 --> 00:18:30.920 what you want to hear. He had like a twenty 345 00:18:30.960 --> 00:18:34.559 point lead on Corny, and I think the ut Tyler 346 00:18:34.599 --> 00:18:37.839 people came out some weeks ago and showed it as 347 00:18:37.920 --> 00:18:40.759 roughly a ten point lead, but that was before all 348 00:18:40.960 --> 00:18:43.559 of this. I think it'd be a good season for 349 00:18:43.599 --> 00:18:45.960 a little bit of polling, like right now, to see 350 00:18:46.000 --> 00:18:48.400 if it were more like eight or nine, or more 351 00:18:48.480 --> 00:18:51.279 like one or two, or if the leads evaporated completely. 352 00:18:51.319 --> 00:18:54.680 I don't believe it had as as this whole, messy, unfortunate, 353 00:18:54.759 --> 00:18:58.319 sad story played out. I believe you mean, the least 354 00:18:58.319 --> 00:19:01.640 scientific thing in the world is talk show calls and Twitter. 355 00:19:01.880 --> 00:19:04.319 But they're interesting, they're anecdotal. You find out what a 356 00:19:04.480 --> 00:19:07.279 smattering of people think. And I said, listen, if you 357 00:19:07.440 --> 00:19:10.759 have been a strong Packston supporter, but this is just 358 00:19:10.839 --> 00:19:13.400 a bridge too far. I had always said. One of 359 00:19:13.400 --> 00:19:16.559 the things I always said is if Angela forgives him, 360 00:19:17.000 --> 00:19:19.400 then who are we to continue? Who is anybody to 361 00:19:19.440 --> 00:19:23.839 continue to bog down in the personal stuff? Well, Ken 362 00:19:23.880 --> 00:19:27.680 can't use that anymore, his supporters can't use that anymore. 363 00:19:28.000 --> 00:19:30.160 So my goal was to find out how much it mattered. 364 00:19:30.480 --> 00:19:32.200 And in a few days of calls and a few 365 00:19:32.240 --> 00:19:35.480 days of Twitter, polls for whatever they're worth. It just 366 00:19:36.079 --> 00:19:39.000 it looked like almost nothing. Now I know that it's 367 00:19:39.039 --> 00:19:42.400 not nothing. There has to be a voter defined by 368 00:19:43.319 --> 00:19:47.319 general supportive Paxton, even a strong supportive Paxton. But this 369 00:19:47.519 --> 00:19:51.079 is just too much. My friends at Texas Values, Jonathan 370 00:19:51.160 --> 00:19:54.519 Sign's wonderful group, they've been aligned with Paxton on issue 371 00:19:54.559 --> 00:19:56.960 after issue after issue after issue. But one of the 372 00:19:57.000 --> 00:19:59.480 things that means a lot to them at Texas Values, 373 00:19:59.519 --> 00:20:02.039 hence the name, is the sanctity of marriage. And so 374 00:20:02.160 --> 00:20:05.039 they pulled their endorsement. And that's not like they've endorsed 375 00:20:05.079 --> 00:20:07.359 Corn in or they don't want Ken to win, but 376 00:20:07.440 --> 00:20:11.880 they just cannot have their endorsement there in their literature 377 00:20:11.960 --> 00:20:15.480 for him. That can't be your best day on the 378 00:20:15.480 --> 00:20:18.880 campaign trail. But if it is just a small bit 379 00:20:18.920 --> 00:20:21.799 of damage, which it may be, I'll never forget one 380 00:20:21.799 --> 00:20:23.839 of the text We have a text line. We got calls. 381 00:20:23.839 --> 00:20:26.079 There too many ways to get hold of me these days. 382 00:20:26.200 --> 00:20:30.200 But somebody wrote me and said, Mark, there's no amount 383 00:20:30.240 --> 00:20:34.319 of Paxton misbehavior that makes John corn unacceptable. And now 384 00:20:34.359 --> 00:20:38.599 this is a pretty maga based, grassroots conservative thing to say. 385 00:20:38.839 --> 00:20:42.519 But if that's prevalent, of course, Paxton remains viable now. 386 00:20:42.599 --> 00:20:45.799 Is this me predicting that he will win. Absolutely not, 387 00:20:46.319 --> 00:20:50.119 because I think even that ten point lead is phony. 388 00:20:50.440 --> 00:20:54.200 This will be a close race, It will be hard fought, 389 00:20:54.400 --> 00:20:59.519 and the driving factor will be who offers himself up 390 00:21:00.160 --> 00:21:04.519 as the most reliable Trump ally in the remainder of 391 00:21:04.519 --> 00:21:09.799 this Trump term. Paxton's credentials are absolutely rock star quality 392 00:21:09.839 --> 00:21:12.640 on that, but the person, the personal stuff may be 393 00:21:12.759 --> 00:21:15.480 a bit of a drag on that. For Cornan, around 394 00:21:15.519 --> 00:21:18.480 whom there has been interest doubt. I don't think Cornan 395 00:21:18.720 --> 00:21:20.880 likes guns as much as he wants you to think 396 00:21:20.880 --> 00:21:24.039 he does. He certainly didn't. He certainly did not like 397 00:21:24.079 --> 00:21:26.880 Trump as much as he now seems to like him. 398 00:21:27.079 --> 00:21:32.200 I mean, there is zero distance Cornyan is Trump. Ever 399 00:21:32.279 --> 00:21:35.960 since Trump won, it has been a genius bit of positioning. 400 00:21:36.359 --> 00:21:40.599 All the ads show Cornyan and Trump. Cornyan loves Trump. 401 00:21:40.680 --> 00:21:43.720