1 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:08,679 Speaker 1: This week's episode of the Tribecast is brought to you 2 00:00:08,759 --> 00:00:20,600 by the Texas Tribune Membership program. Hello and welcome to 3 00:00:20,879 --> 00:00:24,719 the Tribecast for Tuesday, July twenty ninth. I'm Eleanor Klebanoff, 4 00:00:24,879 --> 00:00:28,640 law and politics reporter here at the Tribune, joined this 5 00:00:28,760 --> 00:00:33,359 week by A. Matthew Watkins stand in politics editor, Jasper Sharer. 6 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:35,719 Speaker 2: Jasper, thanks for being here, of course, thanks for having me. 7 00:00:36,119 --> 00:00:42,719 Speaker 1: Matthew is in luxurious, beautiful Porto ransis the place to 8 00:00:42,759 --> 00:00:45,920 be in the summer, and I would make fun of it. 9 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:50,159 Speaker 3: But we are in the Texas capital, so not much better. 10 00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 1: I am curious, Jasper, before we jump in. This is 11 00:00:53,679 --> 00:00:56,520 your We're in the special session. You're now an editor. 12 00:00:56,600 --> 00:01:00,960 It's your first session in how many years that you're not? Sorry, 13 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:02,640 I should tee that up, first session? How many years 14 00:01:02,679 --> 00:01:04,400 that you are not on the floor of the capitol. 15 00:01:04,599 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 4: Oh man, Well, I started covering state politics as a 16 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:13,000 reporter right around when the Dems broke quorum. I guess 17 00:01:13,239 --> 00:01:15,519 you know, I might have specified broke korum the first 18 00:01:15,519 --> 00:01:18,319 time if we get a second one momentarily here. But 19 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:22,040 so twenty twenty one, the first special session there was 20 00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:22,840 my first. 21 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:24,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, not the first time two thousand and three, but 22 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:27,200 the right right first time. 23 00:01:27,079 --> 00:01:28,000 Speaker 3: Also probably wasn't the first. 24 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:30,040 Speaker 2: The first tis time history. 25 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:32,840 Speaker 3: John Morritz would say, you know right, this was the 26 00:01:32,879 --> 00:01:33,319 second time. 27 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 2: It is a longer memory than me. Yes. 28 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:37,319 Speaker 3: So are you missing being on the floor. 29 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:38,120 Speaker 2: I think so. 30 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:40,840 Speaker 4: I mean it's been sort of slow so far, so 31 00:01:40,879 --> 00:01:44,000 it's you know, I miss kind of the idea of 32 00:01:44,079 --> 00:01:46,879 being around the hustle and bustle. But I still feel 33 00:01:47,239 --> 00:01:50,079 I can live vicariously through through you guys being there. 34 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:53,079 So do you want to trade Maybe I'll maybe I'll 35 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:55,000 make my way down there, just to relive the glory 36 00:01:55,079 --> 00:01:55,920 days a little bit. 37 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:59,799 Speaker 3: Yeah, we love that. Well, we're going to jump right in. 38 00:01:59,799 --> 00:02:02,640 Speaker 1: You know. Last week we had an episode with the 39 00:02:02,719 --> 00:02:05,159 chair of the Texas Democratic Party, Kendall Scudder, sort of 40 00:02:05,159 --> 00:02:08,479 looking at the dems prospects for the twenty twenty six midterms. 41 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:10,439 Speaker 3: This week we are going. 42 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:12,879 Speaker 1: To look at the other side of the aisle, the 43 00:02:12,879 --> 00:02:16,240 Republican's prospects. I will say we did extend an invitation 44 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:20,840 to GOP chair Abraham George, who it wasn't the right 45 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:23,680 time for him to join us, but he said he 46 00:02:23,719 --> 00:02:25,800 plans to join in the future. So we will extend 47 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:29,479 that invitation and open invitation to Chairman George Yes anytime. 48 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:33,919 Speaker 3: So in his stead we have the Dean of. 49 00:02:33,879 --> 00:02:38,120 Speaker 1: Texas Talk Radio, Mark Davis, on the air for more 50 00:02:38,159 --> 00:02:42,199 than forty years in the Dallas Fort Worth area. His 51 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:44,759 bio and I think we would agree with this, says 52 00:02:45,159 --> 00:02:49,560 the foremost conservative voice locally and nationally, a morning fixture 53 00:02:49,599 --> 00:02:52,759 on six sixty Am The Answer. He is also a 54 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:57,000 columnist for the Fort Worth Start Telegram, McClatchy Newspapers, Newsweek, 55 00:02:57,039 --> 00:02:57,840 and town Hall. 56 00:02:58,000 --> 00:02:59,199 Speaker 3: Mark, thanks for joining. 57 00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:02,280 Speaker 5: Us, great pleasure. Thank you guys, appreciate being here. 58 00:03:02,439 --> 00:03:04,439 Speaker 1: Yeah, well, you know, I want to sort of start 59 00:03:04,479 --> 00:03:07,199 before we jump into twenty twenty six and talk about 60 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:09,400 you know, look back in time a little bit and 61 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:12,719 talk about twenty twenty four, you know, just a gangbusters 62 00:03:12,759 --> 00:03:18,080 election for Republicans in Texas nationally. I'm curious, Mark, were 63 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:22,840 you anticipating such a good year for Republicans nationally, you know, 64 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:24,639 with Trump at the top of the ticket. How to 65 00:03:24,719 --> 00:03:27,000 sort of line up with your expectations. 66 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:31,159 Speaker 5: It's everything is relative. And as I'm sitting here doing 67 00:03:31,159 --> 00:03:34,000 shows in this room, talking about the presidential race, talking 68 00:03:34,039 --> 00:03:39,280 about national issues. Talking about Texas issues, the Texas landscape 69 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:44,000 seemed pretty baked in. Democrats have had a long and 70 00:03:44,159 --> 00:03:46,719 tortured experience ever since I've been back in my native 71 00:03:46,719 --> 00:03:50,080 Texas nineteen ninety four. Oh, we're going to turn it purple. 72 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:52,919 We're going to turn it blue. Guys, how's that working out? 73 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:55,360 And I don't know, never say never, but that's not 74 00:03:55,439 --> 00:03:56,680 happening even in the near term. 75 00:03:56,719 --> 00:03:56,840 Speaker 2: Now. 76 00:03:56,919 --> 00:04:00,439 Speaker 5: Nationally it was not as cut and dry because Trump 77 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:03,039 is always the X factory. There's going to be hot 78 00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:07,919 passions obviously for him. That is going to spark hot 79 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:13,800 passions against him. So I think what solidified my confidence? 80 00:04:14,319 --> 00:04:19,680 I mean Trump, He's a known entity, He's Trump. I think, 81 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:23,519 you know the level of positivity he's going to attract, 82 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:26,480 you know, the high level of negativity that's going to 83 00:04:26,519 --> 00:04:29,319 be there to meet those positive folks, those supporters on 84 00:04:29,399 --> 00:04:32,800 the battlefield. So the real difference was what were the 85 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:36,199 Democrats going to do? And as things just got progressively 86 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:42,040 worse for the Democrats presidentially from the obvious even my 87 00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:45,199 dog knew it, cognitive decline of Joe Biden, and then 88 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:49,480 they give him the hook and then forward the Kamala 89 00:04:49,519 --> 00:04:53,560 Harris candidacy, without a single vote being cast for her, 90 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:55,160 without a saying I mean here, I am doing a 91 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:59,279 conservative talk to saying Democrats, I feel for you. I'm 92 00:04:59,319 --> 00:05:03,160 taking calls from Democrats saying could we please have a primary? 93 00:05:03,319 --> 00:05:06,040 Could we please have four or five people? And maybe 94 00:05:06,079 --> 00:05:10,279 Kamala would prevail in that scrum or maybe not, but 95 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:13,519 at least something that resembles fair competition. That did not 96 00:05:13,639 --> 00:05:16,720 serve her well. Kamala was also not served well by 97 00:05:16,759 --> 00:05:20,800 her complete, near complete lack of campaign skill set. It 98 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:24,680 was one of the truly worst campaigns ever run by anyone, 99 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:28,279 and as that began to take shape, the Trump victory 100 00:05:28,319 --> 00:05:31,480 became a lot easier to envision because while there were 101 00:05:31,519 --> 00:05:34,639 a lot of things that were unknown, a lot of 102 00:05:34,639 --> 00:05:37,279 things that were hidden factories yet to be played out, 103 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:39,839 one thing that was clear, and that was the Democrats 104 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:43,160 and dug themselves an enormous hole, which is part of 105 00:05:43,199 --> 00:05:43,839 why Trump won. 106 00:05:44,959 --> 00:05:48,639 Speaker 1: It's such a like how quickly things evolve in politics 107 00:05:48,639 --> 00:05:51,000 that Trump was the known quantity in that election, Like 108 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:53,519 when you think about twenty sixteen or everyone was like, 109 00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:56,000 what the heck is happening with this guy? 110 00:05:56,079 --> 00:06:00,560 Speaker 3: And now it's like the safe choice, the more predictable choice, the. 111 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:05,920 Speaker 5: Familiar, the familiarity, and even it even gets weirder that 112 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:09,040 with all of his personal paccadillos, with all of his 113 00:06:09,319 --> 00:06:11,879 you know, wheels off behavioral things, one of the reasons 114 00:06:11,879 --> 00:06:15,639 he won is that he was the normalcy candidate that 115 00:06:16,879 --> 00:06:19,079 I know. That's the kind of thing that I mean 116 00:06:19,279 --> 00:06:22,399 what but by that I mean not by being a 117 00:06:22,439 --> 00:06:26,040 conventional candidate in his own way, but through things, you know, 118 00:06:26,079 --> 00:06:29,319 I feel, pardon me, things like border normalcy, which means 119 00:06:29,399 --> 00:06:32,680 having one gender, normalcy, which means knowing how many there are, 120 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:38,399 a certain trade normalcy, which involves bringing the playing field 121 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:42,000 into a better level place. So even in the way 122 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:45,360 that Nixon, who is not real popular one in nineteen 123 00:06:45,399 --> 00:06:47,879 sixty eight and seventy two, by being kind of a 124 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:50,800 normalcy candidate, even though he might not have been that popular, 125 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:53,160 a lot of voters said, well, I can think what 126 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:55,959 I think about him, but it seems like either he's 127 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:58,560 less crazy or the other people are too crazy. And 128 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:01,040 that too was part of the twenty twenty four when. 129 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:06,199 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's an interesting comparison to that, to that Nixon 130 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:11,079 election and just sort of you know people, you know, 131 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:13,120 without condemning any of our elected officials sort of the 132 00:07:13,439 --> 00:07:15,040 devil you know, versus the. 133 00:07:14,959 --> 00:07:15,600 Speaker 3: Devil you don't. 134 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:17,959 Speaker 4: Yeah, I would say it was pretty striking to see 135 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:21,839 a fourteen point win in Texas. I mean I didn't 136 00:07:21,879 --> 00:07:25,800 I don't think any of the polling, you know. If anything, 137 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:30,600 I think the one of the takeaways was just, you know, 138 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:34,319 we can only rely on polling in Texas so much 139 00:07:34,399 --> 00:07:37,160 coming out of some of these recent cycles that you know, 140 00:07:37,279 --> 00:07:39,639 not universally across the board. I think there were some 141 00:07:40,279 --> 00:07:43,120 posters who got pretty close, but I don't think anyone 142 00:07:43,279 --> 00:07:46,920 was fully predicting fourteen points for Trump. I think it 143 00:07:46,959 --> 00:07:48,720 was eight and a half for Cruise at the end 144 00:07:48,759 --> 00:07:52,399 of the day. So and that really sets the tone 145 00:07:52,439 --> 00:07:56,399 in kind of a problematic way for Democrats heading into 146 00:07:56,439 --> 00:07:59,399 twenty twenty six, even though folks are talking about them, 147 00:07:59,759 --> 00:08:02,439 you know, having just sort of the national wind at 148 00:08:02,439 --> 00:08:05,319 their back just by virtue of it being a Republican 149 00:08:05,319 --> 00:08:08,759 in the White House midterm cycle. But on the other hand, 150 00:08:08,759 --> 00:08:13,560 we're coming off really a landslide blowout two years ago. 151 00:08:13,759 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 1: Right, I Mean, conventional wisdom would say twenty twenty six 152 00:08:17,399 --> 00:08:20,120 a midterm year. The president is you know, dealing with 153 00:08:20,160 --> 00:08:24,959 some unpopularity issues passing, you know, some policies that we 154 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:27,079 will probably you know, by twenty twenty six be seeing 155 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:30,800 the impact of in one direction or another, you know, 156 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:34,480 putting aside the ongoing redistricting fight that could change things 157 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:37,120 on the congressional front. Mark what is sort of your 158 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:40,120 crystal ball telling you at this point for you know, 159 00:08:40,399 --> 00:08:42,399 the lay of the land coming into twenty twenty six. 160 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 5: For Republicans, let's talk about the sort of a midterm 161 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:49,840 map that you referred to the way it usually goes 162 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:54,960 for Republican and Democrat presidents alike, is that when when 163 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:57,360 you win the White House, the first midterm is the 164 00:08:57,399 --> 00:09:00,399 pendulum swinging back the other way. And the other thing 165 00:09:00,399 --> 00:09:03,879 that usually happens in a president's second term. Ask Bush, 166 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:09,559 ask Reagan. Everybody starts to get tired of you. It's 167 00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:12,279 like a coach, you lose the locker room. But here's 168 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:19,279 the thing, and history may record that Trump losing, I know, 169 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:23,480 did he the Trump not regating the White House, not 170 00:09:23,639 --> 00:09:26,919 reoccupying the White House in twenty twenty might have been 171 00:09:26,919 --> 00:09:30,720 the absolute best thing to happen to him, because this 172 00:09:30,799 --> 00:09:33,039 Trump two point, Oh imagine if he had won it 173 00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:35,240 had been, first of all, you'd be gone by now 174 00:09:35,279 --> 00:09:37,519 who knows what we'd have. And I take calls every 175 00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:40,480 day from people who say God's timing, Mark God's timing. 176 00:09:40,519 --> 00:09:44,399 I'll leave that to individuals to discern. But there's no 177 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:46,240 doubt that he was able to hit the ground running 178 00:09:46,279 --> 00:09:50,200 like a freshly inaugurated first termer. And talk I mean 179 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:53,039 energy with a capital E, rather than the kind of 180 00:09:53,120 --> 00:09:57,039 fatigue that can kick in at Bush's second term, Reagan's 181 00:09:57,039 --> 00:09:59,840 second term, Obama's second term. There's something about that th 182 00:10:00,039 --> 00:10:03,919 if sixth, seventh, eighth year of being president where everything 183 00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:07,639 just starts to become a slog. Trump has been spared 184 00:10:07,919 --> 00:10:10,240 all of that, coming back for a two point zero that, 185 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:14,840 like the Grover Cleveland metoreum, is non consecutive, and it 186 00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:17,000 means that it's a it's a kind of a fresh 187 00:10:17,039 --> 00:10:20,799 start that the usual conventional second drug president does not Yet. 188 00:10:20,840 --> 00:10:23,639 So here's how this goes to the midterm. The fatigue 189 00:10:23,639 --> 00:10:25,960 factor might not be so large, and Trump may be 190 00:10:26,919 --> 00:10:29,039 I mean, listen, these first six months have been exhausting. 191 00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:31,519 I mean for critics and fans alike, just keeping track. 192 00:10:31,759 --> 00:10:33,399 You know, the usual saying is, you know, are you. 193 00:10:33,519 --> 00:10:35,639 Are you tired of the winning yet? You know, and 194 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:38,000 it hasn't all been winning, and some of it's been difficult, 195 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:40,440 and there are critics to be found around every corner. 196 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:45,159 But it may be that that pure results and a 197 00:10:45,279 --> 00:10:49,320 kind of an eye opening change in the kind of 198 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:53,240 voters that Trump is attracting, poaching away some of the 199 00:10:53,279 --> 00:10:57,840 working class, poaching away. Listen, that implies poaching, implies theft, 200 00:10:57,879 --> 00:11:01,440 like you're not entitled. Increasing numbers young voters, increasing numbers 201 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:04,720 of minority voters. If this continues, you can't help but 202 00:11:04,759 --> 00:11:07,639 feel pretty good about Republicans and the midterms. But then 203 00:11:07,759 --> 00:11:09,639 the lesson of all life kicks in, and that is, 204 00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:14,080 don't ever get comfortable. Also, the midterms are forever. Primaries 205 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:16,840 in Texas in March November of next year is like 206 00:11:16,879 --> 00:11:21,039 on Carl Sagan's cosmic calendar. It's it's the deep deep distance. 207 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:23,360 So the only thing is certain in life has change. 208 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:26,360 Pendulums can swing in a variety of ways. But you 209 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:28,200 have to say, if the elections were held right now, 210 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:30,799 they'd go pretty well for Republicans. But they're not held 211 00:11:30,879 --> 00:11:31,240 right now. 212 00:11:32,159 --> 00:11:33,960 Speaker 1: Right and if you think about everything that's happened in 213 00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:36,639 the last six months, you know, and then how long 214 00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:40,480 we have until the midterms. It's like that could go dependulent, 215 00:11:40,519 --> 00:11:43,360 could swing back and forth, and just how quickly think 216 00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:46,600 Trump moves, you know, through everything. It could really go 217 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:48,320 in a lot of directions between now and then. 218 00:11:48,399 --> 00:11:51,039 Speaker 4: Right yeah, I mean you think back to that crazy 219 00:11:51,039 --> 00:11:53,320 period in July a year ago where you get an 220 00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:56,879 assassination attempt to change in who the you know, presumed 221 00:11:56,960 --> 00:11:58,679 Democratic nominee is going to be at the top of 222 00:11:58,679 --> 00:12:01,919 the ticket, like you know, let alone a year and 223 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:02,240 a half. 224 00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:04,600 Speaker 2: These things can change, you know, on a on a dime. 225 00:12:04,799 --> 00:12:07,960 Speaker 4: And I think you know, there's also the conversation about 226 00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:12,600 who ends up being the nominee for for Republicans, I guess, 227 00:12:12,759 --> 00:12:15,360 you know, the various nominees, not just for the US 228 00:12:15,399 --> 00:12:19,159 Senate race that everyone's talking about these days. But you know, 229 00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:22,360 I think that could you know, that's another thing that 230 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:24,320 has to play out before we have any sense of 231 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:27,039 what November a year and a half from now, will 232 00:12:27,039 --> 00:12:27,399 look like. 233 00:12:27,879 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 3: Right right. 234 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:30,759 Speaker 1: I will share a fun fact, which is that you 235 00:12:30,799 --> 00:12:34,960 mentioned Grover Cleveland, the only other non consecutive president I 236 00:12:35,279 --> 00:12:38,080 you might know this. My cat is named after Grover Cleveland. 237 00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:39,000 Speaker 2: And God knows that. 238 00:12:39,159 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 5: Yeah. 239 00:12:39,519 --> 00:12:40,720 Speaker 3: And I actually adopted him. 240 00:12:40,759 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 1: The reason he's named after a president at all is 241 00:12:42,639 --> 00:12:44,759 that I adopted him on the eve of the twenty 242 00:12:44,759 --> 00:12:48,000 sixteen election. I was living in rural Pennsylvania, was covering 243 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:50,679 the election quite a great I was out at Trump 244 00:12:50,759 --> 00:12:52,720 rallies all the time. I was out in Scranton with 245 00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:56,919 Hillary and out with you know, Trump. And and I 246 00:12:57,000 --> 00:12:59,960 adopted him, you know, maybe like right around Halloween, so 247 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:02,879 right before and then I thought I'd name him the 248 00:13:02,919 --> 00:13:06,799 second most catlike name of a president, just Grover, the 249 00:13:06,799 --> 00:13:07,639 first being. 250 00:13:09,039 --> 00:13:10,840 Speaker 3: Millard Garfield. 251 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:16,360 Speaker 5: I'm gonna I'm gonna go Millard Millard. 252 00:13:19,679 --> 00:13:20,960 Speaker 2: I approve that is good. 253 00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 1: And now it's funny because we I did not realize 254 00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:26,039 that that was the election, you know, of course, you 255 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:27,759 know where at that time, I didn't know who would win. 256 00:13:27,799 --> 00:13:28,600 Speaker 3: But I also didn't know. 257 00:13:28,519 --> 00:13:30,320 Speaker 1: That he would go on to be the next very prescient, 258 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:36,320 non consecutive president. What did you say, God's timing there, you. 259 00:13:36,279 --> 00:13:37,480 Speaker 5: Go, It works in a number of ways. 260 00:13:37,519 --> 00:13:40,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, Well, detail real quick. 261 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 5: On the notion of things that could change. Because you're 262 00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:45,279 sitting there, we all agree it is July about to 263 00:13:45,279 --> 00:13:48,799 the August the primaries are still a good way down 264 00:13:48,799 --> 00:13:51,080 the road in November, seems to be on the district rise. 265 00:13:51,559 --> 00:13:54,240 But if you are a Democrat and you're and your thinking, 266 00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:56,799 and pardon the way this sounds, you're looking for something 267 00:13:56,840 --> 00:13:59,879 to go wrong, as a Republicans do. When Democrats something 268 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:02,600 wrong that we could weaponize, that we could take advantage 269 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:05,200 of that we can turn to our advantage. Look at 270 00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:07,919 what they would be there really would be either the economy, 271 00:14:08,039 --> 00:14:12,639 the border, the world and the world go crazy. I mean, 272 00:14:12,679 --> 00:14:16,600 if we get a Russia Ukraine East deal, if we 273 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:20,120 get some end to Israel and Ammas where they can 274 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:22,879 actually be defeated, we can have actual peace in the 275 00:14:22,879 --> 00:14:26,840 Middle East. On the economy, inflation seems pretty under control 276 00:14:26,919 --> 00:14:29,279 right now. The tariffs that everybody thought we'd be, you know, 277 00:14:29,279 --> 00:14:31,360 in our front yard eating our neighbor's liver because the 278 00:14:31,399 --> 00:14:33,360 terriffs were going to destroy us and send us into 279 00:14:33,559 --> 00:14:37,440 fourteen recessions and sixteen depressions, it simply has not happened. 280 00:14:39,279 --> 00:14:42,960 The things that in the border seems silly me secure, 281 00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:47,320 that's what's the thing that's going to go wrong. What 282 00:14:47,559 --> 00:14:51,240 I guess, the economy always can, the world always can. 283 00:14:52,399 --> 00:14:56,039 But boy, It's one wonders where the bottom drops at 284 00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:58,799 what we would need to have happen that would suddenly 285 00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:03,639 be such a chink in Trump's armor, such an enormous 286 00:15:03,639 --> 00:15:06,200 hole for him to dig out of. Again, anything's possible, 287 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:08,480 But that's part of my confidence is high because the 288 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:11,000 things he actually ran on are things that actually for 289 00:15:11,080 --> 00:15:13,320 the moment, seem to be working well. 290 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:14,799 Speaker 1: And I think, and we'll talk about this with some 291 00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:18,200 Texas candidates as well, like they're certainly in Texas a 292 00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:22,000 sense of like it would have to be significantly wrong, 293 00:15:22,679 --> 00:15:25,799 you know, even tech for Texas Republicans particularly to turn 294 00:15:25,799 --> 00:15:29,840 on President Trump. But you know, there are certain candidates 295 00:15:29,879 --> 00:15:32,360 in Texas who sometime seem a little impervious and to 296 00:15:32,399 --> 00:15:34,440 your question, know what could go wrong? What could go 297 00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:38,279 so wrong that it would change the political calculus or 298 00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:41,519 the common wisdom. Let's take a quick break for a 299 00:15:41,559 --> 00:15:43,360 sponsor message, and then we'll get into some of. 300 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:45,159 Speaker 3: These Texas specific races. 301 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 1: Today's episode is supported by members of the Texas Tribune. 302 00:15:50,559 --> 00:15:54,679 Texas needs trusted journalism. Help sustain fact based reporting with 303 00:15:54,759 --> 00:15:57,960 your donation. Become a member of the Texas Tribune today 304 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:03,720 at Texastribune dot org. Slash donate Texas Tribune dot org 305 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:07,840 slash donate. Well, you know, Mark, obviously, when I talk 306 00:16:07,879 --> 00:16:11,559 about sort of teflon candidates, let's talk about the Cornyn 307 00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:16,320 Paxton race for US Senate. We you know, I know 308 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:18,759 you've talked to John Cornyn plenty of times in your career. 309 00:16:18,799 --> 00:16:21,559 Speaker 3: I'm you know, our long time. 310 00:16:21,919 --> 00:16:27,240 Speaker 1: US senator facing the toughest primary of his career. What 311 00:16:27,279 --> 00:16:29,080 are you sort of reading in the tea leaves there 312 00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:32,440 and or by Tilei's I mean very clear polling that 313 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:34,679 he is falling behind. 314 00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:40,279 Speaker 5: He Gosh, this is we could do five episodes on 315 00:16:40,799 --> 00:16:44,360 this alone. Cornan has been a fixture for a really 316 00:16:44,399 --> 00:16:49,120 long time. Conservative callers have been calling me for a 317 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:52,679 very long time talking about how dissatisfying they are with Cornyn. 318 00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:55,720 Surely this time we're going to primary him. Surely, this 319 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:58,759 time there's going to be a more bold conservative. And 320 00:16:58,799 --> 00:17:02,399 this is before the ascendants. Yere Trump and it simply 321 00:17:02,879 --> 00:17:06,799 never ever happened. Was it Steve Stockman who came within 322 00:17:07,079 --> 00:17:10,480 forty of him in twenty fourteen or so, That's as 323 00:17:10,519 --> 00:17:16,119 close as anybody's gotten. He's been untouchable. Now, nobody has 324 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:21,240 been running against him named Ken Paxton. So let's go chronologically. 325 00:17:22,039 --> 00:17:25,440 If we're talking a few months ago, the Attorney General 326 00:17:26,039 --> 00:17:29,039 is someone who has taken some slings and arrows, been 327 00:17:29,039 --> 00:17:34,000 through some controversies, and emerged virtually unscathed. You could not 328 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:38,359 find somebody who is a staunch Packston supporter who said, 329 00:17:39,039 --> 00:17:43,160 some of this tax stuff, I'm out, some of this 330 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:45,599 courtroom stuff, I'm out. Even some of the personal stuff, 331 00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:48,119 I'm out. You could not find that. But that was 332 00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:52,200 very three months ago. Speaking of change, you could say 333 00:17:52,519 --> 00:17:56,400 things have changed. So now with Angela having filed for divorce, 334 00:17:56,559 --> 00:17:59,480 and with the corn And team clearly willing to come 335 00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:03,319 out with some I mean brutal as coming after the 336 00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:06,119 well brutal and accurate. That's what makes them so brutal 337 00:18:07,079 --> 00:18:09,960 about the personal stuff. The big X factor here, the 338 00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:14,400 big variable is how much will that hurt? Can it 339 00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:17,400 can't not hurt him? If it's only one or two 340 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:19,680 percent of people who go, dude, I love you, but 341 00:18:19,759 --> 00:18:24,279 I'm out, then of course he's still viable. Some internal polling, 342 00:18:24,279 --> 00:18:26,640 which is almost always useless when Kennedi's go, oh, I've 343 00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:28,839 got my own polling, Sure you do. They tell you 344 00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:30,920 what you want to hear. He had like a twenty 345 00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:34,559 point lead on Corny, and I think the ut Tyler 346 00:18:34,599 --> 00:18:37,839 people came out some weeks ago and showed it as 347 00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:40,759 roughly a ten point lead, but that was before all 348 00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:43,559 of this. I think it'd be a good season for 349 00:18:43,599 --> 00:18:45,960 a little bit of polling, like right now, to see 350 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:48,400 if it were more like eight or nine, or more 351 00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:51,279 like one or two, or if the leads evaporated completely. 352 00:18:51,319 --> 00:18:54,680 I don't believe it had as as this whole, messy, unfortunate, 353 00:18:54,759 --> 00:18:58,319 sad story played out. I believe you mean, the least 354 00:18:58,319 --> 00:19:01,640 scientific thing in the world is talk show calls and Twitter. 355 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:04,319 But they're interesting, they're anecdotal. You find out what a 356 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:07,279 smattering of people think. And I said, listen, if you 357 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:10,759 have been a strong Packston supporter, but this is just 358 00:19:10,839 --> 00:19:13,400 a bridge too far. I had always said. One of 359 00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:16,559 the things I always said is if Angela forgives him, 360 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:19,400 then who are we to continue? Who is anybody to 361 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:23,839 continue to bog down in the personal stuff? Well, Ken 362 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:27,680 can't use that anymore, his supporters can't use that anymore. 363 00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:30,160 So my goal was to find out how much it mattered. 364 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:32,200 And in a few days of calls and a few 365 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:35,480 days of Twitter, polls for whatever they're worth. It just 366 00:19:36,079 --> 00:19:39,000 it looked like almost nothing. Now I know that it's 367 00:19:39,039 --> 00:19:42,400 not nothing. There has to be a voter defined by 368 00:19:43,319 --> 00:19:47,319 general supportive Paxton, even a strong supportive Paxton. But this 369 00:19:47,519 --> 00:19:51,079 is just too much. My friends at Texas Values, Jonathan 370 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:54,519 Sign's wonderful group, they've been aligned with Paxton on issue 371 00:19:54,559 --> 00:19:56,960 after issue after issue after issue. But one of the 372 00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:59,480 things that means a lot to them at Texas Values, 373 00:19:59,519 --> 00:20:02,039 hence the name, is the sanctity of marriage. And so 374 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:05,039 they pulled their endorsement. And that's not like they've endorsed 375 00:20:05,079 --> 00:20:07,359 Corn in or they don't want Ken to win, but 376 00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:11,880 they just cannot have their endorsement there in their literature 377 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:15,480 for him. That can't be your best day on the 378 00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:18,880 campaign trail. But if it is just a small bit 379 00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:21,799 of damage, which it may be, I'll never forget one 380 00:20:21,799 --> 00:20:23,839 of the text We have a text line. We got calls. 381 00:20:23,839 --> 00:20:26,079 There too many ways to get hold of me these days. 382 00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:30,200 But somebody wrote me and said, Mark, there's no amount 383 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:34,319 of Paxton misbehavior that makes John corn unacceptable. And now 384 00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:38,599 this is a pretty maga based, grassroots conservative thing to say. 385 00:20:38,839 --> 00:20:42,519 But if that's prevalent, of course, Paxton remains viable now. 386 00:20:42,599 --> 00:20:45,799 Is this me predicting that he will win. Absolutely not, 387 00:20:46,319 --> 00:20:50,119 because I think even that ten point lead is phony. 388 00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:54,200 This will be a close race, It will be hard fought, 389 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:59,519 and the driving factor will be who offers himself up 390 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:04,519 as the most reliable Trump ally in the remainder of 391 00:21:04,519 --> 00:21:09,799 this Trump term. Paxton's credentials are absolutely rock star quality 392 00:21:09,839 --> 00:21:12,640 on that, but the person, the personal stuff may be 393 00:21:12,759 --> 00:21:15,480 a bit of a drag on that. For Cornan, around 394 00:21:15,519 --> 00:21:18,480 whom there has been interest doubt. I don't think Cornan 395 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:20,880 likes guns as much as he wants you to think 396 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:24,039 he does. He certainly didn't. He certainly did not like 397 00:21:24,079 --> 00:21:26,880 Trump as much as he now seems to like him. 398 00:21:27,079 --> 00:21:32,200 I mean, there is zero distance Cornyan is Trump. Ever 399 00:21:32,279 --> 00:21:35,960 since Trump won, it has been a genius bit of positioning. 400 00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:40,599 All the ads show Cornyan and Trump. Cornyan loves Trump. 401 00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:43,720 Trump loves Cornyn. He's one of the most valuable allies 402 00:21:43,759 --> 00:21:46,599 he has in the in the Senate. Quick thing, and 403 00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,160 I'll shut up. I'm sorry, I don't. I don't know 404 00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:53,839 if they'll be an endorsement. Would would would Trump endorse Paxton? 405 00:21:54,599 --> 00:21:57,359 It looked for a while, you know, six months ago. Yeah, Well, 406 00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:59,880 sure they've been friends forever, but would would he want 407 00:21:59,880 --> 00:22:02,400 to issue that kind of a slap to a sitting 408 00:22:02,519 --> 00:22:06,000 senator who's very important to him now? And if Trump 409 00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:09,480 endorses Cornyn, WHOA, there's a large part of the base 410 00:22:09,519 --> 00:22:12,319 that will go into open revolt. So that seems to 411 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:14,960 me like a race where Trump is able to say, Ken, 412 00:22:15,039 --> 00:22:18,680 I've loved him forever, good friend, Cornyn, valuable, ally important guy, 413 00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:20,400 I love him and just kind of stay out of 414 00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:23,079 it and let voters have their say. And what will 415 00:22:23,079 --> 00:22:26,160 that say be. I have no idea. It will be 416 00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:29,680 a measure of how much rockstar power Action is able 417 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:32,240 to maintain, and I think it's going to be considerable 418 00:22:32,599 --> 00:22:35,720 versus how good a job Cornyn will do of convincing 419 00:22:35,799 --> 00:22:39,599 voters that he will absolutely be a Trump ballet. And 420 00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:42,519 he's done it, quite frankly, a wonderful job of doing that. 421 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:44,799 So that's where it lays. I think it's a close 422 00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:48,079 race and one of those wonderful things that are impossible 423 00:22:48,079 --> 00:22:48,759 to call right now. 424 00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:51,720 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I mean I think what you were saying 425 00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:53,680 there about the you know, the voters who have that 426 00:22:53,839 --> 00:22:57,680 view that you know, whatever Paxson's behavior is you know, 427 00:22:58,079 --> 00:23:01,519 it's it's irrelevant in assessing whether Cornyn, you know, whether 428 00:23:01,559 --> 00:23:03,599 they'll ever support Cornan. I think that's kind of the 429 00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:07,599 that encapsulates the challenge that Cornan is facing right now. 430 00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:09,799 And I guess it also gets to the other point 431 00:23:09,839 --> 00:23:13,880 about you know, electability and kind of the argument that 432 00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:17,960 you know, I think this could potentially play into Trump's 433 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:19,920 decision about whether to get involved. 434 00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:22,519 Speaker 2: You know, he wants to maintain the Senate. 435 00:23:22,559 --> 00:23:25,160 Speaker 4: There's sort of this view out there that you know, 436 00:23:25,759 --> 00:23:29,319 you know, maybe Paxton still still wins, but the National 437 00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:33,160 Republicans have to put their resources more so in Texas 438 00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:35,799 than they would like, and that takes away from you know, 439 00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:39,279 North Carolina, other states. I mean, I guess I'm curious 440 00:23:39,319 --> 00:23:43,319 Mark if you have any thoughts on the electability question 441 00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:46,079 and sort of you know, Ken Paxton. I think you 442 00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:48,759 can look at any data point you want to sort 443 00:23:48,759 --> 00:23:52,079 of justify your view. I mean, he was, you know, 444 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:54,839 he came within striking distance of losing in twenty eighteen, 445 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,559 but on the other hand, twenty twenty two, he wins 446 00:23:57,559 --> 00:24:01,799 by a comfortable, I think ten point margin. So given 447 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,839 all the kind of the data points swirling around and 448 00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:07,920 what you've heard. I mean, do you feel like Paxton 449 00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:11,559 presents an electability problem for Republicans if he's the nominee 450 00:24:12,599 --> 00:24:14,359 or not? 451 00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:18,319 Speaker 5: Not as much of one as the Corn team would 452 00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:21,319 have you believe. So, so, what does Corn bring to 453 00:24:21,319 --> 00:24:25,119 the table a track record of being thoroughly palatable to 454 00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:29,160 a sufficient number of Republicans to win comfortably ever since 455 00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:33,599 he's been running. Who doesn't want that? There are people 456 00:24:33,599 --> 00:24:36,319 who want to say that if Paxton is the nominee 457 00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:40,079 that he will be a lot more vulnerable. I don't 458 00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:44,440 know that that's true. Is it mathematically? Do the data 459 00:24:44,519 --> 00:24:48,319 points suggest that cornin First of all, either one of 460 00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:52,680 these guys beats Colin all read period paragraph, end of story. 461 00:24:52,839 --> 00:24:55,519 There's zero chance of a Democrat winning. To see, the 462 00:24:55,599 --> 00:24:58,759 question is how big will the Republican margin be now? 463 00:24:58,799 --> 00:25:02,599 And listen, all those of us in conservative land we 464 00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:06,079 still remember and are still stung and frightened by how 465 00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:09,640 freakishly close Beto came to Ted Cruz in twenty eighteen. 466 00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:11,319 I mean, how in the world did that even happen? 467 00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:13,559 And it makes us think you never can tell when 468 00:25:13,599 --> 00:25:17,440 it might happen again. Colin all Read, ain't betto? Is 469 00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,559 what comforts me at night. But here's how this comes. 470 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:22,960 With the data points and the notion of how either 471 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:26,400 of them might go, it is possible, in fact probable, 472 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:30,440 that Cornyn would win by a slightly larger margin than 473 00:25:30,559 --> 00:25:34,519 Paxton would. But since if I'm right that there's no 474 00:25:34,599 --> 00:25:37,880 chance of a democratic victory, go with whomever you like. 475 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:40,799 It's not one of those situations where well, we like 476 00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:44,960 this Republican but he might lose. That's just simply not 477 00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:48,640 the case. Here's here are the variables. No matter, this 478 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,960 is going to be one of the ugliest, most expensive, messy, 479 00:25:52,839 --> 00:25:57,160 terrible primaries in the history of the stick. Great business 480 00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:59,000 for me and the talk show, been great business for you, 481 00:25:59,039 --> 00:26:01,759 all those of us who are in punditry and analysis. 482 00:26:01,839 --> 00:26:04,079 You know, the gods will be smiling, but there'll be 483 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,160 so much blood on the walls by the time they're done. 484 00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:10,759 And whoever loses, they're going to be a lot of 485 00:26:10,799 --> 00:26:14,119 people who are really upset the people who voted for 486 00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:17,240 If Paxton wins, the people who voted for Cornyn are 487 00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:20,079 going to have to be wheedled and cajoled and attracted 488 00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:23,599 to come over and vote for Paxton. Using the logic 489 00:26:23,839 --> 00:26:26,559 we can't have a Democrat win, remember betto, We can't 490 00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:28,680 have that happen again. And I think that would be 491 00:26:28,799 --> 00:26:33,200 largely successful if Cornin fends off the Paxton challenge. Look 492 00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:36,599 Out the Paxton people who didn't like Cornan before and 493 00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:39,000 are really going to be bitter about him now are 494 00:26:39,079 --> 00:26:42,680 going to have to get that same appeal message like, Okay, 495 00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:46,480 the primary is over. It was rough, it was nasty, 496 00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:49,559 but now we got to gather together as Republicans do 497 00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:51,960 what we're supposed to do, and that's beat Democrats. And 498 00:26:52,039 --> 00:26:54,039 so you've got to come over and find a way 499 00:26:54,079 --> 00:26:55,960 to hold your nose if you view it as holding 500 00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:59,599 your nose and support John Cornyn anyway, that I believe 501 00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:02,960 is a harder sell, which is why Cornyn would probably 502 00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:07,039 if I'm just packing crazy predictive numbers, I think Cornyan 503 00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:15,279 wins by eight and packs and wins by four. But again, 504 00:27:15,519 --> 00:27:19,160 that's at the electron right now. If something if Cornyan's 505 00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:22,960 support for Trump is somehow drawn into doubt, if the 506 00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:25,640 if the personal stuff starts to take hold with Ken 507 00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:28,279 in a way that it's not doing right now, then 508 00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:31,759 either of those figures is shiftable. Yeah. 509 00:27:31,759 --> 00:27:33,359 Speaker 1: I mean, I just feel like We've heard this argument 510 00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:36,440 a lot from DEM's right of you know, I mean 511 00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:39,240 that was almost the argument that like George P. Bush 512 00:27:39,279 --> 00:27:41,599 and if Husman we're making, which is, you know, we 513 00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:44,759 can't put him up because he'll lose to a Democrat. 514 00:27:45,039 --> 00:27:48,960 Speaker 3: Obviously he won handily, so it does. 515 00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:51,440 Speaker 1: Again, a lot can change, but it's sort of like 516 00:27:51,519 --> 00:27:54,119 with President Trump with Pax, a lot would have to 517 00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:57,240 change if nothing has sort of penetrated his base. Yet, 518 00:27:58,759 --> 00:28:03,079 let's turn briefly to the who the heir apparent to 519 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,640 the Attorney General's office. We're gonna have our first open 520 00:28:06,319 --> 00:28:10,640 GOP primary for Attorney General in a decade, the first 521 00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:14,680 without you know, packs the specter of Paxton hanging over it. 522 00:28:14,799 --> 00:28:17,440 So well, let me say this, I think the specter 523 00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:21,880 of Paxton is hanging over this race pretty effectively. But yes, 524 00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:25,559 without your yeah, without the embodiment of Paxton in the race. 525 00:28:25,759 --> 00:28:29,519 So you know, we've talked about this on the podcast before, 526 00:28:29,559 --> 00:28:33,680 but the field for the GOP looks pretty set with 527 00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:37,000 you know, Senator Mays Middleton, who is self funding ten 528 00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:40,440 million dollars in his campaign so far, State Senator Joan 529 00:28:40,519 --> 00:28:43,400 Huffman sort of a little bit more of the establishment, 530 00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:49,559 Houston base and Aaron Wrights, who is former assistant Attorney 531 00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:53,880 General to Ken Paxton, former DOJ attorney, getting a lot 532 00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:58,359 of money nowhere near ten million dollars, but really trying 533 00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:01,960 to carve out his lane as the Paxton air apparent 534 00:29:03,359 --> 00:29:06,079 mark just to begin with, like what you know in 535 00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:09,119 terms of your listeners and people you're talking to? Is 536 00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:12,559 there awareness about this campaign? Is there awareness about these candidates? 537 00:29:12,559 --> 00:29:14,079 What's the name recognition issue? 538 00:29:14,079 --> 00:29:19,319 Speaker 5: Here? As as state senators, Joan Huffman and May's Middleton 539 00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:21,480 start out with an advantage because no one knows who 540 00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:23,440 Aaron Rights is, or they or they didn't until a 541 00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:26,559 few weeks to you they know now if they pay 542 00:29:26,599 --> 00:29:28,599 some attention to social media and they've been watching some 543 00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:31,319 of his media appearances, that they take a look at 544 00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:34,319 Ken's endorsement of him, which is not a small thing. 545 00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:38,720 The way this one shakes out right now is is 546 00:29:38,799 --> 00:29:41,039 Joan Huffman is going to get a lot of the 547 00:29:41,079 --> 00:29:47,160 GOP establishment Ava Guzman style vote. May's Middleton is a 548 00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:51,839 better conservative than Joan Huffman is. But is he is 549 00:29:51,839 --> 00:29:54,440 he Paxton friendly enough? Is he does he kind of 550 00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:57,839 maga grassroots enough? Not that that's gonna not the best 551 00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:00,680 ninety percent of Texas Republican voters. I mean, if it 552 00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:03,799 were a Cornon wouldn't have been so unbeatable for low 553 00:30:03,839 --> 00:30:09,359 these many years. But with Aaron Wrights around, I've spoken 554 00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:11,359 to this gentleman a couple of times, and he has 555 00:30:11,759 --> 00:30:15,440 like no fear. He's just jumping in there and saying 556 00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:19,680 and being very vocal about the very Pacstonian kinds of 557 00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:21,880 things that he's going to do. He was on I 558 00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:25,279 think a station in Austin recently. I just to clip 559 00:30:25,319 --> 00:30:28,000 the other day. I'm coming after these blue cities. They're 560 00:30:28,039 --> 00:30:29,559 not going to be able to do these guys. I mean, 561 00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:35,000 it sounded like the absolute linear continuation of the Paxton 562 00:30:35,079 --> 00:30:37,759 style of being Attorney General. I don't know that May's 563 00:30:37,759 --> 00:30:40,079 Middleton is ever going to say that that I'm going 564 00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:44,359 to do everything Paxton did, at least in office. I 565 00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:46,640 know that Johan Hubban's not going to say anything like that. 566 00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:52,119 So the variable will be how much do Texas voters 567 00:30:52,119 --> 00:30:54,200 how much do Republican first in the primary. Of course, 568 00:30:54,799 --> 00:30:59,359 how much do Texas Republican voters want an absolute continuation 569 00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:03,160 of packs to style policies. There's a lot of evidence 570 00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:07,240 that that's exactly what the Republican flavor is going to be. 571 00:31:08,319 --> 00:31:13,039 But for fundraising familiarity, name recognition, both May's Middleton and 572 00:31:13,119 --> 00:31:16,480 Johan Huffman have more. So Aaron Rights has all the 573 00:31:16,559 --> 00:31:19,839 all the right ingredients. He is he certainly has you know, 574 00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:22,640 the right talking points, but still an upill climb. 575 00:31:23,319 --> 00:31:23,559 Speaker 2: Yeah. 576 00:31:23,599 --> 00:31:25,960 Speaker 4: I think it also strikes me as kind of a 577 00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:30,240 the ultimate test of whether voters still care about you know, 578 00:31:30,559 --> 00:31:33,160 experience and whether you know, kind of that as a 579 00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:36,920 campaign pitch. You look at Aaron Wrights kind of pitching 580 00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:39,720 himself as the you know, he was the offensive coordinator 581 00:31:39,799 --> 00:31:43,319 under Paxton, if you like what Packson was doing suing 582 00:31:43,319 --> 00:31:46,000 the Biden administration. I was at the center of that. 583 00:31:47,519 --> 00:31:52,119 Joan Huffman kind of making a similar but different experience 584 00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:55,160 based argument talking about her you know, time as a 585 00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:58,720 judge and prosecutor, you know, overseeing a bunch of important 586 00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:02,920 committees in the Senate. And you know, Middleton obviously has 587 00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:04,960 that experience in the Senate as well, but he doesn't 588 00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:10,200 have that type of you know, Aaron Wright's style legal credentials, 589 00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:13,599 just being sort of enmeshed in this conservative legal movement. 590 00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:16,480 But he does have ten million dollars. So I think 591 00:32:16,559 --> 00:32:19,880 it's it's kind of the ultimate test of whether you 592 00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:23,559 know the voters care enough about experience to overcome just 593 00:32:23,839 --> 00:32:28,480 a seemingly on its face insurmountable money advantage. 594 00:32:28,799 --> 00:32:30,960 Speaker 5: I mean, I'm going to make an observation about experience. 595 00:32:31,759 --> 00:32:37,000 It has never mattered less, and I don't in Republican 596 00:32:37,079 --> 00:32:40,519 Land particularly, and the evidence of it is there every day. 597 00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:42,920 There's a guy who ran for president who had no 598 00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:46,559 political experience and got more passion than anybody since Reagan. 599 00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:49,240 His name is Donald Trump. I mean, obviously experience meant 600 00:32:49,279 --> 00:32:51,480 something for two point zero because he had been president, 601 00:32:51,599 --> 00:32:53,319 which is why two point zero is even better than 602 00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:59,279 one point zero. He knows Washington now. But the Senator Cornyn, 603 00:32:59,319 --> 00:33:01,640 when I talked to him, always it talks about you know, 604 00:33:01,839 --> 00:33:04,200 and I say, listen, you and Ken, it seems like 605 00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:06,640 you're going to if you indeed have become the Trump 606 00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:09,599 acolyte that you offer yourself to be. Isn't it pretty 607 00:33:09,599 --> 00:33:12,079 true that you and Ken will have just about the 608 00:33:12,079 --> 00:33:13,839 same voting record. I mean, what's really going to be 609 00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:16,039 the difference between what kind of cenator you will be 610 00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:18,759 and the corn and response is very, very often. I 611 00:33:18,839 --> 00:33:22,720 have all this experience, experience, experience, experience. I won't say 612 00:33:22,759 --> 00:33:25,960 it doesn't matter. Oly matter. Experience is a good thing 613 00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:29,279 to have. But what Republican voters in particular looking for 614 00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:32,839 is how's your fight? How much will you fight? What 615 00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:35,880 kind of energy do you bring? Do you draw? Do 616 00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:38,599 you have the right enemies? I mean, do you have 617 00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:43,559 your eye focused on battles against wotness, battles against profligate spending, 618 00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:50,440 battles against you know, unconstitutional governance. If you've got your 619 00:33:50,519 --> 00:33:53,519 eyes clear about that. Not only do we not care 620 00:33:53,599 --> 00:33:56,319 that you don't have experience, we love that you've come 621 00:33:56,359 --> 00:33:58,720 from the private sector because I think there's a kind 622 00:33:58,759 --> 00:34:00,480 of what we've had it up to our eyeball with 623 00:34:00,599 --> 00:34:03,720 career politician little bitner for twenty five years. Big deal. 624 00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:06,319 Give me somebody with a with a fresh eye, a 625 00:34:06,359 --> 00:34:09,519 fresh take on things. So I'll just say that experience 626 00:34:09,559 --> 00:34:11,519 is never a bad thing to have. But I don't 627 00:34:11,519 --> 00:34:13,400 know when it's ever been less important. 628 00:34:14,119 --> 00:34:16,920 Speaker 1: An experience is all relative, right, I mean, you've got 629 00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:19,199 I think the AGS race is a great example of this. 630 00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:21,280 You've got Aaron Wright sort of portraying himself as the 631 00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:25,480 political outsider and also the one experienced, you know, as 632 00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:29,760 the offensive coordinator that sort of backs someone like Senator 633 00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:32,559 Middleton into a corner of you know, well, his experience 634 00:34:32,639 --> 00:34:36,039 is in you know, state legislating, which is sort of 635 00:34:37,159 --> 00:34:39,760 almost the worst of both in the eyes. 636 00:34:39,519 --> 00:34:40,559 Speaker 2: Of the republicability. 637 00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:41,400 Speaker 5: Right. 638 00:34:41,559 --> 00:34:44,199 Speaker 1: Yeah, but I will say, you know, Center Middleton has 639 00:34:44,199 --> 00:34:47,400 gotten a ton of support from other members of the legislature, 640 00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:49,320 many of whom are grassroots Republicans. 641 00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:51,719 Speaker 3: So you know, I think there's sort. 642 00:34:51,559 --> 00:34:56,679 Speaker 1: Of the the social media, the attacking in TV ads, 643 00:34:56,760 --> 00:35:00,400 TV hits, radio hits like that makes a huge difference 644 00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:03,159 in terms of name recognition. And then there's sort of 645 00:35:03,199 --> 00:35:06,039 the the underground world in which a lot of politics 646 00:35:06,079 --> 00:35:08,639 happens that's less obvious to the to the naked eye. 647 00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:11,519 I think where I do think Center Middleton is pretty 648 00:35:13,039 --> 00:35:18,519 experienced in working in those circles or the GOP donor yeah. Absolutely, Yeah, 649 00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:21,039 you know, we could obviously get into a lot of 650 00:35:21,079 --> 00:35:23,440 other races, but we will sort of leave it there. 651 00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:25,639 Speaker 3: I mean, Mark, just big picture, you. 652 00:35:25,519 --> 00:35:29,639 Speaker 1: Know, what are you what sort of your outlook for Republicans, 653 00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:32,639 you know, between now and when we when we get 654 00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:35,199 up to that primary and then ultimately general, I mean, 655 00:35:35,679 --> 00:35:37,599 you know, what are the variables you're keeping an eye on. 656 00:35:40,199 --> 00:35:43,480 Speaker 5: If if recent history is a prologue and once things 657 00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:46,119 have been going in a certain way, only two things 658 00:35:46,119 --> 00:35:48,639 can happen. They can continue in that certain way, or 659 00:35:48,679 --> 00:35:53,599 the pendulum can start to swing back. Paxton remains a 660 00:35:53,679 --> 00:35:55,719 rock star in terms of what he has done. The 661 00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:58,159 personal stuff is a big We'll see whether it's a 662 00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:01,079 Chinese water torture. If he can say but death one 663 00:36:01,079 --> 00:36:05,480 thousand cuts, let's go with that over time. If it 664 00:36:05,519 --> 00:36:07,320 starts to wear him down, I don't know. I don't 665 00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:10,360 think that it will. What he has done is sufficiently 666 00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:12,519 impactful that I think it's the kind of thing that 667 00:36:12,559 --> 00:36:16,559 gives Aaron Wright a chance in a battle where he 668 00:36:16,639 --> 00:36:19,599 would ordinarily have a big struggle against Tufman in Middleton. 669 00:36:19,599 --> 00:36:21,920 That's going to be an interesting three way race. Dan 670 00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:26,239 Patrick remains just a force of nature. He is ageless. 671 00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:28,159 He's out there even things that are that are not 672 00:36:28,199 --> 00:36:31,639 one hundred percent popular in the conservative base, the THC band. 673 00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:33,800 He will not let go of that THC band. I 674 00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:36,159 happen to think he's correct about that. But I took 675 00:36:36,159 --> 00:36:38,159 a lot of calls and we remark I love Dan Patrick, 676 00:36:38,199 --> 00:36:40,239 but he's wrong on the THC thing. He doesn't care, 677 00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:43,960 he thinks it's right. He's going for it. Various the 678 00:36:44,039 --> 00:36:47,320 ways in which he has piloted the Senate in a 679 00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:49,519 way that gives the Texas Senate a better sort of 680 00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:52,679 legislative image than the Messy House does. Coming off the 681 00:36:54,119 --> 00:36:58,159 difficult era, Dade feeling, although the Dustin Burroughs era seems 682 00:36:58,159 --> 00:37:01,000 to have gone much much much better, remains a power 683 00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:03,800 and to finish at the top there with Governor Rabbit. 684 00:37:04,039 --> 00:37:06,800 It is not the same Greg Abbott as four or 685 00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:10,199 six or eight years ago. I was not to make 686 00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:12,360 everything a measure of the calls I take or whatever. 687 00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:14,840 But it's the people I talked to it it's the 688 00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:17,280 studies of human nature that I get from doing this 689 00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:21,239 show every day. There was conservative frustration about Abbott to 690 00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:24,519 the extent that when Don Haffins and Alan West ran 691 00:37:24,559 --> 00:37:27,559 against him, I took all kinds of calls from people 692 00:37:27,559 --> 00:37:29,639 who said, hey, Mark Abbot's Abbot's going down. 693 00:37:29,679 --> 00:37:29,840 Speaker 1: Man. 694 00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:32,440 Speaker 5: It's either Alan West or Don Hoffines. And by the way, 695 00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:35,760 I love Allan West, I love Don Hopkins. Hupfinds ride 696 00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:38,840 a great campaign. Hop Fines would say something about property taxes, 697 00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:42,199 Abbott would say it the next day. Huff Finds made 698 00:37:42,199 --> 00:37:45,840 Abbott a better candidate four years ago. But I told listeners, 699 00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:48,519 to their chagrin, there was no way Abbott was getting beat. 700 00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:50,159 There was no way in the world either of these 701 00:37:50,159 --> 00:37:53,000 primary challenges would come close to him. Because what you've 702 00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:55,079 got to do, it's the Mark Davis rule of primaries. 703 00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:57,239 The only way you're going to win. It doesn't matter 704 00:37:57,239 --> 00:37:59,519 how awesome you are, how much we love you. You've 705 00:37:59,519 --> 00:38:03,559 got to create a desire to fire the incumbent. That's 706 00:38:03,599 --> 00:38:05,559 what Paxton's got to do. He's got to create it. It 707 00:38:05,519 --> 00:38:08,480 doesn't matter how awesome Paxston is or the great things 708 00:38:08,519 --> 00:38:10,480 he's done in the rock star status he has. I mean, 709 00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:12,519 it's lovely. That's why he's going to come close. But 710 00:38:12,639 --> 00:38:16,639 he will only win if he creates a palpable desire 711 00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:18,519 on the part of a state that's loved him for 712 00:38:18,599 --> 00:38:21,679 two decades to fire John Cornyn. If he can do that, 713 00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:25,159 he wins. If he can't, then he doesn't. The point 714 00:38:25,159 --> 00:38:29,199 being here is that Abbot has read the political room 715 00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:33,599 so well and read and has seen the trumpification of 716 00:38:33,679 --> 00:38:36,639 text at the further trumpification of Texas that I don't 717 00:38:36,639 --> 00:38:43,039 hear a peep of conservative complaint about Abbott anymore at all, 718 00:38:43,079 --> 00:38:45,000 which would seem to indicate, by a long winded way 719 00:38:45,039 --> 00:38:48,880 of saying, that the deeper red status of Texas either 720 00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:52,079 continues or stays where it is, the notion of the 721 00:38:52,079 --> 00:38:56,039 pendulum swinging back and maybe a hint of purple working 722 00:38:56,119 --> 00:38:59,840 toward blue. Maybe Colin already has a chance and throw 723 00:38:59,840 --> 00:39:02,480 it redistricting, which we do at a whole week there 724 00:39:02,519 --> 00:39:05,320 may not simply be you know, Martin Beezy and Julie 725 00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:09,840 Johnson may not be around anymore. But let's just say 726 00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:13,000 that it's trending well for Texas as a red state. 727 00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:15,480 Speaker 1: And you want to talk about a war chest, I mean, 728 00:39:15,519 --> 00:39:18,920 Governor Abbot just was it twenty million dollars in a 729 00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:20,880 week and eighty six million dollars total? 730 00:39:21,039 --> 00:39:22,599 Speaker 4: Right, yeah, And that's I mean, that's a big part 731 00:39:22,639 --> 00:39:25,599 of the conversation with twenty twenty six too, just thinking 732 00:39:25,639 --> 00:39:30,360 about back to twenty eighteen when you know, as we 733 00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:33,159 were discussing, things got really close, but we had Governor 734 00:39:33,159 --> 00:39:36,400 Abbott kind of lifting all boats on the Republican side. 735 00:39:36,519 --> 00:39:40,960 Further down the ballot with his blowout when that same year, 736 00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:44,000 and you know, to your point, Mark, I think with 737 00:39:44,679 --> 00:39:48,159 Abbot sort of reading the conservative tea leaves and you know, 738 00:39:48,239 --> 00:39:50,280 shoring up his right flank. I mean you just look 739 00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:53,360 at the agenda that he's rolled out for this special session. 740 00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:56,639 I mean it's kind of a grab bag of anything 741 00:39:56,679 --> 00:40:00,000 you could you could want that hasn't yet been accomplished. 742 00:40:00,159 --> 00:40:03,400 So I think he's a pretty bulletproof heading into March. 743 00:40:03,639 --> 00:40:06,480 Speaker 1: Ran if he's got all that money and no primary challenger, 744 00:40:06,639 --> 00:40:08,800 it's a lot to a lot of wealth to spread. 745 00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:10,599 Speaker 5: Around an enviable place to be. 746 00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:11,239 Speaker 3: Yes. 747 00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:15,079 Speaker 1: Absolutely, Our colleague alle Hundro Serrana, when we saw that number, 748 00:40:15,159 --> 00:40:18,159 said imagine what the Texas Tribune could do with that money? 749 00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:22,039 Speaker 3: And I said, are you proposingly Rob craig donation? 750 00:40:22,559 --> 00:40:24,079 Speaker 5: Time for that donation, bitch. 751 00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:24,719 Speaker 3: Yes exactly. 752 00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:28,440 Speaker 2: I'm sure Dave Carney's jumping jumping to send that over 753 00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:29,239 to us. Yeah, exactly. 754 00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:31,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think we're top of the list for right now. 755 00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:34,960 Speaker 1: Yes, well, you know we will have to leave it there, 756 00:40:34,960 --> 00:40:37,079 but thank you so much for joining us, Mark, this 757 00:40:37,159 --> 00:40:41,719 was a fantastic conversation. Yeah, before we head out, we 758 00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:44,360 will just say thank you to this week's sponsor, members 759 00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:47,079 of the Texas Tribune, which could be any of you 760 00:40:47,119 --> 00:40:50,519 who are listening. Become a member of the Texas Tribune 761 00:40:50,519 --> 00:40:55,199 today at Texas Tribune dot org slash donate. That is 762 00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:57,760 this week's episode of the Trip Cast, Jasper, Thank you 763 00:40:57,800 --> 00:40:58,480 for joining us. 764 00:40:58,639 --> 00:40:58,960 Speaker 2: Thank you. 765 00:40:59,199 --> 00:41:01,920 Speaker 1: Our producers are are Chris and Rob. You can get 766 00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:05,599 this podcast anywhere you get podcasts or on YouTube dot 767 00:41:05,639 --> 00:41:19,079 com and we'll see you next week.