Speaker 1: We have encountered a recession, and the fifteenth time is
in twenty twenty five. So and that is seventeen years
from the two thousand and eight Great Recession, which was
seventeen years from nineteen ninety one, the recession that really
dumed George hw Bush's reelection. And you can keep going back.
That seventeen year cycle has been uncanny in how accurate
and consistently it has timed recessions. And so I am
looking again for that to be the case in twenty
twenty five. So that would certainly fit with interest rates
seeing another downside wave and bonds and notes seeing another
rally in the first half of next year.
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Speaker 3: Ever, And welcome. You are listening to the Financial Survival Network.
I'm your host, Gerry Lutz. Well, we got Eric Haddock
back and you find him at inside Track Trading that's
I n side Track Trading dot com. And well, we're
going to be talking about the forecast for the election
as far as indirect financial indicators are concerned. We'll talk
about gold record prices, and we'll talk about other commodities,
interest rates, the dollar, all that good stuff that I
know you've been waiting to hear.
Speaker 4: Eric, Welcome back. It's great to have you on.
Speaker 3: So you know you told me a few cycles ago
that you knew that Trump was going to lose because
the dollar was going higher.
Speaker 4: The dollar has been going lower.
Speaker 3: Can we infer the inverse from.
Speaker 1: This, Eric, Well, one of the correlation that you're referring to,
and I you should also say thanks for having me back.
It's great to see here again. But the correlation that
I have talked about has more to do with the
dollar's movement within a particular administration as opposed to leading
into it. And so what I had this was even
going back into twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen, and what my
work was showing was that the dollar I was expecting
it to keep in early twenty seventeen and then sell
off for a year or two. And that was leading
me to believe the Republican candidate, even before it became
confirmed that it was going to be Trump, that the
Republican would win. And I guess I should even elaborate
on the correlation before getting into the competing candidates and parties.
But what I have seen over last thirty or so
years is that on the whole, the dollar tends to
trend higher during Democratic administrations and lower during Republican administrations.
And I'm not even necessarily, you know, trying to make
any indictments about that or any political talk about it.
Speaker 4: It's just that's what I've seen.
Speaker 1: And in one respect, it's not that surprising because you
go back to really when this correlation seemed to take hold,
and in the early to mid eight eighties, when the
dollar had been very strong, and then you had, I
guess it was eighty five, I believe, the Plaza Accord,
and even before that you had the administration really starting
to talk down the dollar. It was just becoming too
much of a burden for its strength and that impact
on import, export and other competing currencies in the.
Speaker 4: Four X and so, you know, it was early.
Speaker 1: On in my trading career, and I can recall seeing
James Baker on the television. You know, he'd get on
whatever talk show would have him every other day, and
he'd be talking down the dollar. And eventually the dollar
did really take a hit, went through a sharp sell
off from eighty five and eighty seven, started to accomplish
what that administration was hoping for. And you've seen the
underlying mentality that was driving that tends to run in
those parties, And so during Republican administrations you often have
the dollar trending lower, which helps with exports because you know, the.
Speaker 4: Country that is.
Speaker 1: A client or a buyer of our goods, if they
can get them for a lower amount, once you've done
the foreign exchange in there, then it encourages and increases
those exports. And conversely, during democratic administrations, you've seen the
dollar trend on balance higher. So all that to say,
I went back to twenty sixteen, twenty seventeen. I know
I had that discussion with several people leading into that election.
I think you were one of them, But then also
into twenty twenty twenty to twenty one, when I was
seeing the opposite. Well, right now, a lot of my
work is showing that the dollar should put in a
pretty significant bottom in the next month or two and
then see some consolidation and potentially some some upward movement,
although from a much broader perspective, I don't think it's
it's heading into any sort of bull market. So if
you're going to try and parse the read the tea
leaves out of that and parse whatever information you can
where that correlations concerned, that would certainly seem to lean
a little bit in favor of a democratic administration coming up. Well,
it's already in existence but starting to come up in
the future administration. But I don't see a strong enough
correlation and or expectation where the dollar is concerned for
me to have a very high confidence level in that association.
I think that it's again, it may lean a little
bit towards Democrat, but not enough that I would make
any convincing conclusions off of that particular correlation.
Speaker 3: So you're not betting on it in other words.
Speaker 1: Right, yeah, and I should just taking it down to
the dollar itself, getting beyond the political or election discussion.
I think that the dollar can continues to go through
what I believe is a major topping process. And I've
discussed this in a generational cycle perspective. When I discussed
the forty year cycle of currency war and why I
thought that twenty sixteen to twenty twenty one was going
to be the culmination of one the latest forty year cycle,
and the twenty twenty two would begin the next forty
year cycle. And in that next cycle, I thought, was
when you would see the dollar really start to change
its its status, its value. And you've got certainly the
bricks nations and a lot of other competing nations trying
to help usher that in where the dollar loses at
least a little bit of its global dominant and that
other currencies or basket of currencies begin to play a
larger role in international commerce. And so I think that
the dollar is going through that major transition. Doesn't mean
that it collapses at any time in the foreseeable future,
but it also is able to kind of validate that
analysis with an entire technical scenario and set up that
I've described for my readers over the last six to
eight months, and it would be pointless to even try
and describe it all verbally kind of laid out.
Speaker 4: But the dollar added.
Speaker 1: Some real strong confirmation to that argument at the end
of August, and it looks like it's set up to
do the same thing at the end of September, where
it's just further confirming a major top. But at the
same time, those signals are lagging and confirming, so they
often get triggered right near an initial bottom. So on
an intermediate basis, it wouldn't surprise me to see the
dollar bottom between now and early November and then enter
this consolidation and or rebound that I was just referring
to for several months. So I think from a very
broad perspective, the dollar is going through this shift and
that's going to have long term implications and ramifications on
just about everything in our economy, from interest rates to
future inflation. But that we're mirroring the culmination of the
latest leg down in dollar. Okay, so.
Speaker 3: Not a great and not the best election predictor for sure,
but no, no, I would h high level of confidence
right now. Okay, all right, So this leads us to
interest rates. I think you had said the last time
that they were pretty much at intermediate high. Perhaps what
are you thinking now that the fence cut fifty bases points.
Speaker 1: Yeah, as far as as far as bonds and notes
which trade inversely to interest rate I had been thinking
that we would see a pair of highs in early
August and early to mid September, and yes, the fit
kind of validated that by cutting rates half points, and
that was on.
Speaker 4: An intermediate base.
Speaker 1: Is kind of a buy the rumor sell the fact
in bonds and notes where they peaked right as that
was occurring.
Speaker 4: So it was.
Speaker 1: The fundamental finally confirming and fulfilling with the technicals, and
the price action had already anticipated. And so then the
market and the traders kind of sit back and say, Okay,
that's nice what you did for me yesterday. What are
you going to do for me now? And so any
any additional upside in bonds and notes is probably out
a little bit on the on the horizon. But I know,
you know, today I think it had some more howl speak
coming out, and tomorrow you've got their favorite PCE report
coming out. So there certainly could be a couple of
near term things to move the markets a little bit.
But I think that bonds and notes are probably going
to stay below their the mid September highs for a
month or so and see perhaps even a little more
downside in early October, but all within a trading range,
a multi months trading range on what I've described it
at from a wave perspective is that I thought the
entire move up in bonds from October of twenty twenty three,
which is when they set their their lowest low of
the entire sell off, into August September of twenty twenty four,
that rally in bonds was what I think is an
A wave of a larger magnitude ABC upside correction. And
so putting that in to English, you've seen your entire decline,
a pretty clear five wave decline from middle twenty twenty
into October of twenty twenty three. And usually when you
have waves that unfold in five waves, that's usually an
impulse wave or which means it's in the direction of
the primary trend, and then you'll see a three wave
correction going the opposite way. So in this case, a
correction is actually to the upside. And so the first
leg of that correction, the A wave, was what we
saw from October of last year into August September this year.
Speaker 4: Now we're in the midst.
Speaker 1: Of a likely B wave, and then I expect to
see another rally in bonds and notes. So some additional
intrastrate cutting out towards the end of this year and
into early twenty twenty five. But that also corresponds very
closely to several occurrences of a very uncanny seventeen year
cycle that I've described that has, among other things, has
timed If you go back to the founding of the
US and follow this seventeen year cycle forward, thirteen of
the fourteen times that that seventeen year cycle has hit
we have encountered a recession, and the fifteenth time is
in twenty twenty five. So and that is seventeen years
from the two thousand and eight Great Recession, which was
seventeen years from nineteen ninety one, the recession that really
dumed George hw Bush's reelection.
Speaker 4: And you can keep going back.
Speaker 1: That seventeen year cycle has been uncanny in how accurate
and consistently it has timed recessions. And so I am
looking again for that to be the case in twenty
twenty five. So that would certainly fit with interest rates
seeing another downside wave and bonds and notes seeing another
rally in the first half of next year.
Speaker 3: Interesting. Interesting, all right, So gold we've seen nothing but
new highs as far as the eye can see. Are
we getting to it intermediate high or a longer term high?
What are your thoughts?
Speaker 1: I think that on a near term basis, I've been
looking at this late September period for excuse me, for
an initial intermediate high. And one of the things that
I've been watching pretty closely is more specific price action,
and silver has been the one that has given me
the clearest signs of where and how a peak would
be more likely. And ever since the early August low
in silver one of my primary trend indicators, and it
also really helps pinpoint where corrections are culminating and where
a primary trend is taking control again. And so in
early August you had one of these signals in silver,
and it told me to look for a rally back
up to it may peek. And so that has been
one of the things that I've been that's been governing
my overall outlook for gold and silver, And along with that,
silver has had some very consistent multi month cycle. It
helped pinpoint that the mid may peak in silver, while
at the same time gold was showing it was diverging
and should continue higher. But the next phase of those
cycles in silver comes into play in November, so it
wouldn't surprise me to see gold and silver set an
initial high in here, see some consolidation and pull back,
but then enter one more rally into late October early November,
and that kind of goes along with the dollar outlook,
although they are not always a one hundred and eighty
degree inverse correlation, depending on what is driving the moves
in each one. So I think that we are on
a near term basis, coming near a peak. I've got
some price targets that are pretty close to being attained
in gold and silver, but there's there remains the potential
for another up leg after a after a brief pullback,
and even there's some key indicators that are are beginning
to form where a pullback low and a chance to
add to long positions would be the ideal scenario. So
from a technic technical perspective, it's all shaping up. But
also that also feeds into that much broader generational cycle
I was talking about with this forty year cycle of
currency wars, and I did a series of articles back
in twenty fourteen fifteen sixteen, and then updated them in
twenty twenty one, twenty two. But they were showing me.
In fact, the title of a few of them was
called the Golden Year, and why I thought twenty sixteen
would start a whole new bull market in gold, and
at the first phase of it would be the culmination
of that previous forty year cycle from twenty sixteen to
twenty twenty one, but that that was also kind of
a precursor to what you would see in metals and
other currency alternatives, including digital bitcoin cryptocurrency during the next
phase of that forty year cycle beginning in twenty twenty two.
So gold fulfilled that surge in twenty sixteen to twenty twenty,
twenty twenty one saw a decent correction, and then it
signaled a multi year bull market to start in late
twenty twenty two. So from a broader perspective, we're still
in the midst of that, and I still think there
is significant more upside over the next one to two years.
But that is, as I said, the broader over arching
outlook for precious metals.
Speaker 3: Okay, interesting, speaking of cryptocurrencies, what's in your crystal bowl there?
Speaker 1: I have been thinking that bitcoin and ether would wait
until November to set a final corrective low and put
that in a little bit of context. Back in first
quarter of this year, Bitcoin and ether fulfilled a relatively
consistent sixteen month cycle, and they when they've only been
doing this for a few years, you don't have quite
the history and consistency, but on a limited basis, they
had been adhering pretty closely to a sixteen month cycle
and overriding that was a four year cycle. And so
I was looking for a multi month top in mid
marchs up this.
Speaker 4: Year, and then a future.
Speaker 1: A future peak in the second half of twenty twenty five,
and in between there I thought that we would see
a decent sell off into a pair of cycle lows
that I had first in September of twenty twenty four
and then in November of twenty twenty four. And at
that point is when my price indicators kick in and
when I start to look at them, since the cycles
provide a backdrop or a foundation, but I'm not going
to trade directly off of them. And so we saw
the salt sell off into September fulfill the lot of
downside objectives help some key support levels, and those cryptos
have been rebounding since then.
Speaker 4: But as long as they do.
Speaker 1: Not turn their weekly trends up, which could still not
happen for at least another two weeks because there's a
series of things that have to occur for that for
that trend indicator completely reverse. As long as that does
not occur, I think that you'll see them head back
towards their lows and wait until November to set a
more significant bottom.
Speaker 4: Well, it's just.
Speaker 3: Around the corner I'm looking today. Bitcoins finally broke sixty
five thousand level, it hasn't been at for a while,
so is interesting developments there. What else any other markets
we should be looking at now?
Speaker 1: Really just mainly the equity markets, which going back into
the discussion of that seventeen year cycle, and let me
put a little side note here too, your listeners can
also go to seventeen year Cycle dot com. That is
a secondary website that I've had for about fifteen years,
and it's also accessible through our main site, Insidetracktrading dot com.
Speaker 4: But I have.
Speaker 1: Archived a collection of articles dating back to even two
thousand and seven, two thousand and eight, but many more
recent and very current ones describing how the stock market
has here so closely to this same seventeen year cycle
and it is. It's funny enough that in the years
since I've been writing about it, more scientific evidence has
come out, some of it just in the last couple
of years, that there is a very strong solar storm
secondary cycle of roughly seventeen years. The one the cycle
that's usually recognized for sun spots is about an eleven
point two year cycle. And then, funny enough, several years
ago there started to be more research and papers written
about a broader great conveyor belt of the sun cycle
that was roughly forty years in duration. So you have
this forty year cycle, also validated by swings in geo
solar magnetivity and ultimately geomagnetivity. And then more recently they've
discovered this roughly seventeen year cycle. But even before that,
there were scientific papers describing how there is a magnetic
interplay between the Earth and the Sun that impacts so
much of our lives, and that that is a roughly
seventeen year cycle. So these things have certainly validated with
the markets we're showing, and I suppose if you even
want to look at your longest period cicada, which came
back into existence in the Midwest this year, they are
also a seventeen year cycle, so something drives them underground
for seventeen years, and then something at the culination of
that seventeen year cycle prompts them to come back above ground.
But the stock market has adhere to that same cycle.
And again I wrote about this quite extensively in two
thousand and seven. Why I thought that the latter part
of two thousand and seven would mark a major top,
and if it was consistent with past phases, that it
would trigger a one to three year thirty five to
fifty percent drop in the stock market. And that's exactly
what we saw starting in late two thousand and seven.
And you can go back and look at nineteen ninety,
nineteen seventy three, nineteen fifty six, nineteen thirty nine, and
each time you had very significant peaks and sell offs
in the stock market. And the next phase of that
seventeen year cycle, as far as a peak is concerned,
is in late twenty twenty four right now, and the
corresponding sell off would be expected to be seen in
twenty twenty five and possibly stretching into twenty twenty six.
So it's another very significant application of that cycle. But
there's a lot of other technicals and corroborating cycles that
are reinforcing the validity or the potential of that cycle
coming to fruish fruition. So many of the times you've
seen those corresponding peaks occur during July and October of
the related seventeen year cycle. And so I was looking
for something similar this year, and the Nasdaq one hundred
and a lot of your tech stocks peaked in July.
And if it's anything like two thousand and seven, you
get a peak in July, a sell off into August,
and then a rebound into October. Well, that's exactly what
we've seen in the markets. So they're adhering pretty closely
to what is a pretty long term, an often obscure
cycle that not many people are paying attention to. But
there's a reason to be expecting stocks to peak in
this somewhere between the late September and early November timeframe.
But there's even more specific cycles and timing indicators that
are honing when that peak is most likely.
Speaker 3: Well, we don't have much time left in the year, right,
It's probably going to come sooner rather than later, won't it. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
So I mean we've got the three months left to
the year. So after the peak, what happens then we're
going to crash decline gradual decline. What do you think?
Speaker 1: So I'm saying you related to that, you should see
a good sell off in twenty twenty five, possibly stretching
into twenty twenty six. But as the peak is taking form,
that's when the market starts to clarify and hone on
the outlook on a multi week and multi month basis.
Speaker 4: So it's as much how a.
Speaker 1: Top is formed as it is when it is formed,
and so the pattern leading into that will give me
a lot more specifics to work off of, and I'll
be publishing that in my inside Track newsletter and weekly
relay updates, But right now it still is in the
topping phase, so those specifics haven't completely fleshed out.
Speaker 3: All right, Well, I think we've got a pretty good
overview of the markets, and if you want to get
a more intensive one, then you got to go over
to inside track Trading dot com. That's I nside track
Trading dot com And there's a link in the show
notes to this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com.
Please when you go there, sign up for your free
newsletter Eric, always enlightening, always thought provoking, and let's sit
back and see what happens next.
Speaker 4: That was good, Perry, It was great to talk to
you again.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to carry Lets this Financial Survival Network
your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go
to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more
than ever,