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Speaker 1: We have encountered a recession, and the fifteenth time is

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in twenty twenty five. So and that is seventeen years

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from the two thousand and eight Great Recession, which was

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seventeen years from nineteen ninety one, the recession that really

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dumed George hw Bush's reelection. And you can keep going back.

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That seventeen year cycle has been uncanny in how accurate

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and consistently it has timed recessions. And so I am

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looking again for that to be the case in twenty

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twenty five. So that would certainly fit with interest rates

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seeing another downside wave and bonds and notes seeing another

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rally in the first half of next year.

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Speaker 2: You were listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, where

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you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else

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to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial

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Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork

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dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial

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Survival Network now more than.

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Speaker 3: Ever, And welcome. You are listening to the Financial Survival Network.

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I'm your host, Gerry Lutz. Well, we got Eric Haddock

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back and you find him at inside Track Trading that's

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I n side Track Trading dot com. And well, we're

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going to be talking about the forecast for the election

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as far as indirect financial indicators are concerned. We'll talk

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about gold record prices, and we'll talk about other commodities,

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interest rates, the dollar, all that good stuff that I

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know you've been waiting to hear.

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Speaker 4: Eric, Welcome back. It's great to have you on.

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Speaker 3: So you know you told me a few cycles ago

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that you knew that Trump was going to lose because

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the dollar was going higher.

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Speaker 4: The dollar has been going lower.

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Speaker 3: Can we infer the inverse from.

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Speaker 1: This, Eric, Well, one of the correlation that you're referring to,

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and I you should also say thanks for having me back.

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It's great to see here again. But the correlation that

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I have talked about has more to do with the

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dollar's movement within a particular administration as opposed to leading

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into it. And so what I had this was even

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going back into twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen, and what my

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work was showing was that the dollar I was expecting

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it to keep in early twenty seventeen and then sell

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off for a year or two. And that was leading

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me to believe the Republican candidate, even before it became

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confirmed that it was going to be Trump, that the

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Republican would win. And I guess I should even elaborate

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on the correlation before getting into the competing candidates and parties.

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But what I have seen over last thirty or so

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years is that on the whole, the dollar tends to

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trend higher during Democratic administrations and lower during Republican administrations.

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And I'm not even necessarily, you know, trying to make

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any indictments about that or any political talk about it.

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Speaker 4: It's just that's what I've seen.

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Speaker 1: And in one respect, it's not that surprising because you

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go back to really when this correlation seemed to take hold,

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and in the early to mid eight eighties, when the

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dollar had been very strong, and then you had, I

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guess it was eighty five, I believe, the Plaza Accord,

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and even before that you had the administration really starting

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to talk down the dollar. It was just becoming too

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much of a burden for its strength and that impact

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on import, export and other competing currencies in the.

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Speaker 4: Four X and so, you know, it was early.

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Speaker 1: On in my trading career, and I can recall seeing

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James Baker on the television. You know, he'd get on

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whatever talk show would have him every other day, and

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he'd be talking down the dollar. And eventually the dollar

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did really take a hit, went through a sharp sell

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off from eighty five and eighty seven, started to accomplish

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what that administration was hoping for. And you've seen the

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underlying mentality that was driving that tends to run in

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those parties, And so during Republican administrations you often have

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the dollar trending lower, which helps with exports because you know, the.

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Speaker 4: Country that is.

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Speaker 1: A client or a buyer of our goods, if they

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can get them for a lower amount, once you've done

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the foreign exchange in there, then it encourages and increases

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those exports. And conversely, during democratic administrations, you've seen the

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dollar trend on balance higher. So all that to say,

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I went back to twenty sixteen, twenty seventeen. I know

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I had that discussion with several people leading into that election.

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I think you were one of them, But then also

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into twenty twenty twenty to twenty one, when I was

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seeing the opposite. Well, right now, a lot of my

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work is showing that the dollar should put in a

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pretty significant bottom in the next month or two and

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then see some consolidation and potentially some some upward movement,

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although from a much broader perspective, I don't think it's

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it's heading into any sort of bull market. So if

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you're going to try and parse the read the tea

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leaves out of that and parse whatever information you can

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where that correlations concerned, that would certainly seem to lean

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a little bit in favor of a democratic administration coming up. Well,

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it's already in existence but starting to come up in

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the future administration. But I don't see a strong enough

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correlation and or expectation where the dollar is concerned for

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me to have a very high confidence level in that association.

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I think that it's again, it may lean a little

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bit towards Democrat, but not enough that I would make

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any convincing conclusions off of that particular correlation.

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Speaker 3: So you're not betting on it in other words.

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Speaker 1: Right, yeah, and I should just taking it down to

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the dollar itself, getting beyond the political or election discussion.

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I think that the dollar can continues to go through

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what I believe is a major topping process. And I've

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discussed this in a generational cycle perspective. When I discussed

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the forty year cycle of currency war and why I

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thought that twenty sixteen to twenty twenty one was going

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to be the culmination of one the latest forty year cycle,

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and the twenty twenty two would begin the next forty

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year cycle. And in that next cycle, I thought, was

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when you would see the dollar really start to change

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its its status, its value. And you've got certainly the

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bricks nations and a lot of other competing nations trying

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to help usher that in where the dollar loses at

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least a little bit of its global dominant and that

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other currencies or basket of currencies begin to play a

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larger role in international commerce. And so I think that

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the dollar is going through that major transition. Doesn't mean

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that it collapses at any time in the foreseeable future,

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but it also is able to kind of validate that

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analysis with an entire technical scenario and set up that

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I've described for my readers over the last six to

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eight months, and it would be pointless to even try

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and describe it all verbally kind of laid out.

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Speaker 4: But the dollar added.

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Speaker 1: Some real strong confirmation to that argument at the end

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of August, and it looks like it's set up to

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do the same thing at the end of September, where

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it's just further confirming a major top. But at the

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same time, those signals are lagging and confirming, so they

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often get triggered right near an initial bottom. So on

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an intermediate basis, it wouldn't surprise me to see the

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dollar bottom between now and early November and then enter

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this consolidation and or rebound that I was just referring

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to for several months. So I think from a very

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broad perspective, the dollar is going through this shift and

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that's going to have long term implications and ramifications on

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just about everything in our economy, from interest rates to

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future inflation. But that we're mirroring the culmination of the

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latest leg down in dollar. Okay, so.

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Speaker 3: Not a great and not the best election predictor for sure,

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but no, no, I would h high level of confidence

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right now. Okay, all right, So this leads us to

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interest rates. I think you had said the last time

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that they were pretty much at intermediate high. Perhaps what

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are you thinking now that the fence cut fifty bases points.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, as far as as far as bonds and notes

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which trade inversely to interest rate I had been thinking

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that we would see a pair of highs in early

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August and early to mid September, and yes, the fit

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kind of validated that by cutting rates half points, and

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that was on.

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Speaker 4: An intermediate base.

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Speaker 1: Is kind of a buy the rumor sell the fact

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in bonds and notes where they peaked right as that

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was occurring.

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Speaker 4: So it was.

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Speaker 1: The fundamental finally confirming and fulfilling with the technicals, and

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the price action had already anticipated. And so then the

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market and the traders kind of sit back and say, Okay,

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that's nice what you did for me yesterday. What are

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you going to do for me now? And so any

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any additional upside in bonds and notes is probably out

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a little bit on the on the horizon. But I know,

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you know, today I think it had some more howl speak

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coming out, and tomorrow you've got their favorite PCE report

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coming out. So there certainly could be a couple of

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near term things to move the markets a little bit.

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But I think that bonds and notes are probably going

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to stay below their the mid September highs for a

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month or so and see perhaps even a little more

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downside in early October, but all within a trading range,

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a multi months trading range on what I've described it

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at from a wave perspective is that I thought the

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entire move up in bonds from October of twenty twenty three,

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which is when they set their their lowest low of

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the entire sell off, into August September of twenty twenty four,

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that rally in bonds was what I think is an

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A wave of a larger magnitude ABC upside correction. And

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so putting that in to English, you've seen your entire decline,

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a pretty clear five wave decline from middle twenty twenty

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into October of twenty twenty three. And usually when you

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have waves that unfold in five waves, that's usually an

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impulse wave or which means it's in the direction of

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the primary trend, and then you'll see a three wave

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correction going the opposite way. So in this case, a

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correction is actually to the upside. And so the first

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leg of that correction, the A wave, was what we

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saw from October of last year into August September this year.

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Speaker 4: Now we're in the midst.

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Speaker 1: Of a likely B wave, and then I expect to

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see another rally in bonds and notes. So some additional

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intrastrate cutting out towards the end of this year and

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into early twenty twenty five. But that also corresponds very

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closely to several occurrences of a very uncanny seventeen year

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cycle that I've described that has, among other things, has

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timed If you go back to the founding of the

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US and follow this seventeen year cycle forward, thirteen of

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the fourteen times that that seventeen year cycle has hit

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we have encountered a recession, and the fifteenth time is

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in twenty twenty five. So and that is seventeen years

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from the two thousand and eight Great Recession, which was

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seventeen years from nineteen ninety one, the recession that really

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dumed George hw Bush's reelection.

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Speaker 4: And you can keep going back.

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Speaker 1: That seventeen year cycle has been uncanny in how accurate

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and consistently it has timed recessions. And so I am

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looking again for that to be the case in twenty

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twenty five. So that would certainly fit with interest rates

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seeing another downside wave and bonds and notes seeing another

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rally in the first half of next year.

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Speaker 3: Interesting. Interesting, all right, So gold we've seen nothing but

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new highs as far as the eye can see. Are

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we getting to it intermediate high or a longer term high?

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What are your thoughts?

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Speaker 1: I think that on a near term basis, I've been

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looking at this late September period for excuse me, for

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an initial intermediate high. And one of the things that

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I've been watching pretty closely is more specific price action,

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and silver has been the one that has given me

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the clearest signs of where and how a peak would

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be more likely. And ever since the early August low

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in silver one of my primary trend indicators, and it

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also really helps pinpoint where corrections are culminating and where

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a primary trend is taking control again. And so in

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early August you had one of these signals in silver,

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and it told me to look for a rally back

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up to it may peek. And so that has been

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one of the things that I've been that's been governing

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my overall outlook for gold and silver, And along with that,

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silver has had some very consistent multi month cycle. It

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helped pinpoint that the mid may peak in silver, while

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at the same time gold was showing it was diverging

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and should continue higher. But the next phase of those

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cycles in silver comes into play in November, so it

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wouldn't surprise me to see gold and silver set an

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initial high in here, see some consolidation and pull back,

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but then enter one more rally into late October early November,

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and that kind of goes along with the dollar outlook,

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although they are not always a one hundred and eighty

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degree inverse correlation, depending on what is driving the moves

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in each one. So I think that we are on

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a near term basis, coming near a peak. I've got

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some price targets that are pretty close to being attained

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in gold and silver, but there's there remains the potential

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for another up leg after a after a brief pullback,

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and even there's some key indicators that are are beginning

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to form where a pullback low and a chance to

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add to long positions would be the ideal scenario. So

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from a technic technical perspective, it's all shaping up. But

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also that also feeds into that much broader generational cycle

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I was talking about with this forty year cycle of

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currency wars, and I did a series of articles back

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in twenty fourteen fifteen sixteen, and then updated them in

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twenty twenty one, twenty two. But they were showing me.

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In fact, the title of a few of them was

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called the Golden Year, and why I thought twenty sixteen

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would start a whole new bull market in gold, and

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at the first phase of it would be the culmination

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of that previous forty year cycle from twenty sixteen to

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twenty twenty one, but that that was also kind of

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a precursor to what you would see in metals and

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other currency alternatives, including digital bitcoin cryptocurrency during the next

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phase of that forty year cycle beginning in twenty twenty two.

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So gold fulfilled that surge in twenty sixteen to twenty twenty,

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twenty twenty one saw a decent correction, and then it

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signaled a multi year bull market to start in late

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twenty twenty two. So from a broader perspective, we're still

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in the midst of that, and I still think there

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is significant more upside over the next one to two years.

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But that is, as I said, the broader over arching

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outlook for precious metals.

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Speaker 3: Okay, interesting, speaking of cryptocurrencies, what's in your crystal bowl there?

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Speaker 1: I have been thinking that bitcoin and ether would wait

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until November to set a final corrective low and put

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that in a little bit of context. Back in first

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quarter of this year, Bitcoin and ether fulfilled a relatively

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consistent sixteen month cycle, and they when they've only been

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doing this for a few years, you don't have quite

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the history and consistency, but on a limited basis, they

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had been adhering pretty closely to a sixteen month cycle

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and overriding that was a four year cycle. And so

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I was looking for a multi month top in mid

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marchs up this.

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Speaker 4: Year, and then a future.

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Speaker 1: A future peak in the second half of twenty twenty five,

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and in between there I thought that we would see

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a decent sell off into a pair of cycle lows

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that I had first in September of twenty twenty four

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and then in November of twenty twenty four. And at

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that point is when my price indicators kick in and

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when I start to look at them, since the cycles

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provide a backdrop or a foundation, but I'm not going

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to trade directly off of them. And so we saw

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the salt sell off into September fulfill the lot of

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downside objectives help some key support levels, and those cryptos

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have been rebounding since then.

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Speaker 4: But as long as they do.

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Speaker 1: Not turn their weekly trends up, which could still not

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happen for at least another two weeks because there's a

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series of things that have to occur for that for

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that trend indicator completely reverse. As long as that does

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not occur, I think that you'll see them head back

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towards their lows and wait until November to set a

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more significant bottom.

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Speaker 4: Well, it's just.

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Speaker 3: Around the corner I'm looking today. Bitcoins finally broke sixty

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five thousand level, it hasn't been at for a while,

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so is interesting developments there. What else any other markets

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we should be looking at now?

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Speaker 1: Really just mainly the equity markets, which going back into

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the discussion of that seventeen year cycle, and let me

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put a little side note here too, your listeners can

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also go to seventeen year Cycle dot com. That is

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a secondary website that I've had for about fifteen years,

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and it's also accessible through our main site, Insidetracktrading dot com.

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Speaker 4: But I have.

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Speaker 1: Archived a collection of articles dating back to even two

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thousand and seven, two thousand and eight, but many more

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recent and very current ones describing how the stock market

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has here so closely to this same seventeen year cycle

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and it is. It's funny enough that in the years

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since I've been writing about it, more scientific evidence has

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come out, some of it just in the last couple

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of years, that there is a very strong solar storm

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secondary cycle of roughly seventeen years. The one the cycle

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that's usually recognized for sun spots is about an eleven

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point two year cycle. And then, funny enough, several years

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ago there started to be more research and papers written

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about a broader great conveyor belt of the sun cycle

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that was roughly forty years in duration. So you have

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this forty year cycle, also validated by swings in geo

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solar magnetivity and ultimately geomagnetivity. And then more recently they've

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discovered this roughly seventeen year cycle. But even before that,

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there were scientific papers describing how there is a magnetic

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interplay between the Earth and the Sun that impacts so

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much of our lives, and that that is a roughly

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seventeen year cycle. So these things have certainly validated with

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the markets we're showing, and I suppose if you even

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want to look at your longest period cicada, which came

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back into existence in the Midwest this year, they are

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also a seventeen year cycle, so something drives them underground

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for seventeen years, and then something at the culination of

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that seventeen year cycle prompts them to come back above ground.

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But the stock market has adhere to that same cycle.

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And again I wrote about this quite extensively in two

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thousand and seven. Why I thought that the latter part

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of two thousand and seven would mark a major top,

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and if it was consistent with past phases, that it

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would trigger a one to three year thirty five to

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fifty percent drop in the stock market. And that's exactly

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what we saw starting in late two thousand and seven.

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And you can go back and look at nineteen ninety,

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nineteen seventy three, nineteen fifty six, nineteen thirty nine, and

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each time you had very significant peaks and sell offs

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in the stock market. And the next phase of that

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seventeen year cycle, as far as a peak is concerned,

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is in late twenty twenty four right now, and the

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corresponding sell off would be expected to be seen in

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twenty twenty five and possibly stretching into twenty twenty six.

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So it's another very significant application of that cycle. But

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there's a lot of other technicals and corroborating cycles that

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are reinforcing the validity or the potential of that cycle

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coming to fruish fruition. So many of the times you've

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seen those corresponding peaks occur during July and October of

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the related seventeen year cycle. And so I was looking

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for something similar this year, and the Nasdaq one hundred

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and a lot of your tech stocks peaked in July.

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And if it's anything like two thousand and seven, you

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get a peak in July, a sell off into August,

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and then a rebound into October. Well, that's exactly what

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we've seen in the markets. So they're adhering pretty closely

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to what is a pretty long term, an often obscure

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cycle that not many people are paying attention to. But

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there's a reason to be expecting stocks to peak in

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this somewhere between the late September and early November timeframe.

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But there's even more specific cycles and timing indicators that

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are honing when that peak is most likely.

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Speaker 3: Well, we don't have much time left in the year, right,

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It's probably going to come sooner rather than later, won't it. Yeah, yeah, yeah,

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So I mean we've got the three months left to

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the year. So after the peak, what happens then we're

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going to crash decline gradual decline. What do you think?

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Speaker 1: So I'm saying you related to that, you should see

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a good sell off in twenty twenty five, possibly stretching

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into twenty twenty six. But as the peak is taking form,

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that's when the market starts to clarify and hone on

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the outlook on a multi week and multi month basis.

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Speaker 4: So it's as much how a.

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Speaker 1: Top is formed as it is when it is formed,

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and so the pattern leading into that will give me

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a lot more specifics to work off of, and I'll

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be publishing that in my inside Track newsletter and weekly

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relay updates, But right now it still is in the

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topping phase, so those specifics haven't completely fleshed out.

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Speaker 3: All right, Well, I think we've got a pretty good

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overview of the markets, and if you want to get

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a more intensive one, then you got to go over

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00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:18,319
to inside track Trading dot com. That's I nside track

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00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:22,079
Trading dot com And there's a link in the show

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00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:25,319
notes to this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com.

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00:30:25,519 --> 00:30:27,480
Please when you go there, sign up for your free

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00:30:27,519 --> 00:30:33,279
newsletter Eric, always enlightening, always thought provoking, and let's sit

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00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:34,759
back and see what happens next.

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Speaker 4: That was good, Perry, It was great to talk to

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you again.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to carry Lets this Financial Survival Network

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00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:45,079
your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go

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00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:51,079
to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more

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00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:51,640
than ever,