WEBVTT 1 00:00:02.720 --> 00:00:11.679 A lot of the fundamental principals of ut and individual loss. 2 00:00:14.400 --> 00:00:21.800 This is the show, all right, everybody, welcome to your 3 00:00:21.839 --> 00:00:27.839 own book show. On this Wednesday, April ninth, the day 4 00:00:27.960 --> 00:00:33.640 that Donald Trump blinked, spitulated, gave up, maybe not so much, 5 00:00:34.079 --> 00:00:41.799 somewhat some of it anyway, the day where maybe we 6 00:00:41.880 --> 00:00:46.119 realized more than any other day that we were complete. 7 00:00:46.200 --> 00:00:52.000 We're at the complete whim of an authoritarian thug in 8 00:00:52.000 --> 00:00:56.039 the White House. It basically is whatever he wants one day, yes, 9 00:00:56.079 --> 00:00:59.399 one day, no, one day. Partially, don't like Chinese, go 10 00:00:59.439 --> 00:01:05.359 after them. Insanity is the name of the game these days. 11 00:01:05.879 --> 00:01:09.359 So yes, we are here to give you, to give 12 00:01:09.359 --> 00:01:11.480 you the latest on what is going on in Washington, 13 00:01:11.560 --> 00:01:13.519 d C. And a hall. This really adds up to 14 00:01:14.319 --> 00:01:17.560 really does I think, add up to a new world order. 15 00:01:18.640 --> 00:01:23.079 We'll see how events develop in the next few days, hours, days, weeks, 16 00:01:23.159 --> 00:01:26.879 months up. But the world will never be the same 17 00:01:27.799 --> 00:01:31.200 after the last few days and weeks, and we will 18 00:01:31.200 --> 00:01:36.400 talk about that, and it's it's it's going to be 19 00:01:36.400 --> 00:01:40.680 interesting to see how events developed developed in the next 20 00:01:40.719 --> 00:01:44.560 few days. The market today up the NASDAC today, technology 21 00:01:44.560 --> 00:01:48.560 stocks technology stocks were up up. What was a twelve percent. 22 00:01:50.200 --> 00:01:53.599 Twelve percent, one of the biggest increases on a one 23 00:01:53.640 --> 00:01:59.239 day in the history of the stock market. We'll get 24 00:01:59.280 --> 00:02:07.159 to that. I'm back home jet lagged, so maybe i'll 25 00:02:07.159 --> 00:02:10.680 be a little slow today. I don't know. We'll see 26 00:02:10.719 --> 00:02:14.159 how long I last. We'll see how long I last 27 00:02:14.280 --> 00:02:18.400 given the jet lag. I'm like, I want to go 28 00:02:18.439 --> 00:02:22.560 to sleep, but we'll hang in there and do the show. 29 00:02:22.840 --> 00:02:27.280 I expect shows tomorrow and Friday, not see exactly what times. 30 00:02:27.280 --> 00:02:30.680 I'm still working on. Those times are a little unusual 31 00:02:30.719 --> 00:02:33.599 because my schedule is a little bit in flux. And 32 00:02:33.639 --> 00:02:36.319 then over the weekend there will be a show on Sunday. 33 00:02:36.360 --> 00:02:37.919 I think the show on Sunday is going to be 34 00:02:39.800 --> 00:02:41.599 I think the theme of the show on Sunday is 35 00:02:41.599 --> 00:02:45.000 going to be how Trump is the worst negotiator in 36 00:02:45.080 --> 00:02:48.199 human history. I think that's going to be the title 37 00:02:48.560 --> 00:02:55.479 Trump the worst negotiator ever. That'll be Sunday, and it'll 38 00:02:55.520 --> 00:02:58.080 be a promised to entertaining show. It's a sponsored show. 39 00:02:58.560 --> 00:03:01.319 I got a sponsorship for that one, So it is 40 00:03:03.280 --> 00:03:05.280 it is, it is going to be. It is going 41 00:03:05.319 --> 00:03:08.520 to be fun and I think interesting. I think interesting 42 00:03:08.560 --> 00:03:14.719 to see all the ways in which Trump fails in negotiating. 43 00:03:15.599 --> 00:03:22.280 All right, reminder to everybody, super chat is open. It 44 00:03:22.319 --> 00:03:26.360 was opened by Willie Randall with one hundred Australian dollars, 45 00:03:27.479 --> 00:03:30.879 so thank you Ranal. So yeah, jump in. Thank you 46 00:03:31.039 --> 00:03:34.240 Robert for the sticker. And Katherine Catherine said like she's 47 00:03:34.280 --> 00:03:38.000 going to bed, she's in Europe. It's too late, but 48 00:03:38.120 --> 00:03:40.919 she left some dollars, So thank you Catherine. That that 49 00:03:40.919 --> 00:03:43.360 that was very generous and nice with Catherine. You can 50 00:03:43.360 --> 00:03:47.400 do the same coming over to YouTube, where you can 51 00:03:48.919 --> 00:03:51.439 participate in the super chat and also contribute to a 52 00:03:51.479 --> 00:03:56.599 sticker ask me questions that basically determines the direction of 53 00:03:56.639 --> 00:03:59.879 the show. God, the US, the austrillion dollars just keeps 54 00:04:00.000 --> 00:04:04.520 thinking lower and lower in terms of American dollars. So yeah, 55 00:04:04.560 --> 00:04:08.960 come on over and let people know, well on live 56 00:04:09.080 --> 00:04:14.879 right now, on Twitter, wherever, YouTube, let people know that 57 00:04:14.960 --> 00:04:18.600 they should come over and participate in the live chat 58 00:04:18.879 --> 00:04:21.759 that is going on. If you're not a subscriber, please subscribe. 59 00:04:22.399 --> 00:04:26.000 If if you're on the show and you're listening and 60 00:04:26.439 --> 00:04:29.560 you like it, press the like button. That'll help a lot. 61 00:04:29.639 --> 00:04:35.560 All right, let's jump in. God, what what a few 62 00:04:35.639 --> 00:04:40.079 days this has been. We saw the stock market react 63 00:04:40.160 --> 00:04:47.519 to Trump's Liberation Day last week where he placed so 64 00:04:47.720 --> 00:04:50.600 called recipical tasks because they're now reciprocal, that have nothing 65 00:04:50.639 --> 00:04:54.120 to do with the other country's towers. And we saw 66 00:04:54.360 --> 00:04:57.319 just the market collapse as a consequence of those toasts. 67 00:04:57.639 --> 00:05:02.079 We saw the market go down dramatically and it became 68 00:05:02.519 --> 00:05:05.360 and we saw Trump really say he was committed to these. 69 00:05:05.399 --> 00:05:07.199 I mean, I've got a quote somewhere with him saying 70 00:05:07.759 --> 00:05:10.600 I'm not gonna change my mind. This is a reciprocal traffs. 71 00:05:10.720 --> 00:05:12.800 We're gonna stick with these, We're gonna We're gonna go 72 00:05:12.879 --> 00:05:16.439 with them. And indeed, Natannielle Beni a minute to now 73 00:05:16.560 --> 00:05:19.560 met with Trump yesterday and he came all the way 74 00:05:19.560 --> 00:05:22.439 from Israel and he was gonna ask for Hey, look 75 00:05:22.720 --> 00:05:26.480 our tariffs and American goods, we have lowered them without 76 00:05:26.519 --> 00:05:31.000 even asking you. We have lowered them to zero. Please 77 00:05:31.480 --> 00:05:40.759 lower the reciprocal tavis because how's the zero. Trump's reciprocal 78 00:05:40.800 --> 00:05:44.879 tavits on Israel as seventeen percent. And Trump said, nah, 79 00:05:44.920 --> 00:05:47.439 I don't think I'm gonna lower them below seventeen percent, 80 00:05:47.480 --> 00:05:50.920 even though yours are zero, because there's a trade epicode. 81 00:05:51.360 --> 00:05:58.160 See Trump doesn't care about other countries tariffs on American goods. 82 00:05:59.279 --> 00:06:04.879 Only thing that as to Trump is the deficit. So 83 00:06:05.120 --> 00:06:10.240 if you're running, if Israel is exporting more stuff to 84 00:06:10.279 --> 00:06:14.560 America than it is importing from America, which I don't know, 85 00:06:14.600 --> 00:06:16.879 maybe they're not counting military equipment or something. I don't 86 00:06:16.879 --> 00:06:19.800 know how that works. But if that's the case, then yeah, 87 00:06:19.879 --> 00:06:24.600 you get America places a terrify on you. Because for Trump, 88 00:06:24.920 --> 00:06:28.000 again zero some mentality. And this is one of the 89 00:06:28.040 --> 00:06:30.920 things I really keep repeating, but I want to try 90 00:06:30.959 --> 00:06:35.040 to try to get people to really get this has 91 00:06:35.160 --> 00:06:39.160 nothing to do with anything the whole terraft thing. It's 92 00:06:39.199 --> 00:06:42.759 not three D chess, it's not tax revenue, it's not 93 00:06:43.759 --> 00:06:47.879 bringing manufacturing back home, it's not any of those things. 94 00:06:48.000 --> 00:06:54.439 It is everything to do with Trump's perceptual level understanding 95 00:06:54.680 --> 00:07:00.560 of the essence of trade. A trade deficit for Trump 96 00:07:01.600 --> 00:07:08.720 is we are losing somehow. There's no conception of win win. 97 00:07:10.079 --> 00:07:13.759 It's wind lose. So you got to balance the wind 98 00:07:13.800 --> 00:07:18.319 lose transactions with lose winds, and if the trade balances, 99 00:07:18.360 --> 00:07:24.199 then at least you're not losing. So what he wants 100 00:07:24.399 --> 00:07:28.079 is with every country in the world. He wants a 101 00:07:28.439 --> 00:07:35.519 trade balance. Say you want a poor country like Vietnam 102 00:07:35.800 --> 00:07:41.800 to buy expensive American goods in the same quantity as 103 00:07:41.839 --> 00:07:47.519 American biased shep Vietnamese goods same dollar amount. I mean, 104 00:07:47.600 --> 00:07:50.160 that just can't happen. Vietnamese are not rich enough to 105 00:07:50.199 --> 00:07:53.160 buy the kind of things that America actually makes and 106 00:07:53.199 --> 00:08:02.480 produces services. Primarily, it's it's stupid, but it's insane. It's 107 00:08:02.560 --> 00:08:07.120 non economics, anti economics even. And it's perceptual level, it's 108 00:08:07.319 --> 00:08:15.600 non it's non concept nonconceptual, nonconceptual, anti conceptual even. But 109 00:08:15.720 --> 00:08:18.560 that's the level of which Donald Trump functions, always has 110 00:08:19.120 --> 00:08:22.240 and he really believes this. Again, this is the one issue, 111 00:08:22.279 --> 00:08:24.759 the only issue really that he has not changed his 112 00:08:24.839 --> 00:08:36.960 mind about since the nineteen eighties. Right, He wrote about 113 00:08:36.960 --> 00:08:39.919 this in the nineteen eighties about trade with Japan, and 114 00:08:41.279 --> 00:08:43.879 just just the same as he did today. This we're 115 00:08:43.879 --> 00:08:48.000 supstizing them. We should have a trade deficit with them, 116 00:08:48.080 --> 00:08:49.840 and we need to do whatever we can to bring 117 00:08:49.879 --> 00:08:53.600 trade into balance, or ideally we sell them more goods 118 00:08:53.600 --> 00:08:57.200 than we import. That way, we're being subsidized by them. 119 00:08:57.240 --> 00:08:59.480 That's okay, we lose. You want to be the win 120 00:08:59.720 --> 00:09:13.399 they one they're going to lose. So yeah, so this 121 00:09:13.480 --> 00:09:17.879 is a case where there's nothing going on here other 122 00:09:17.960 --> 00:09:24.279 than Trump's signam wants nothing really no. And again Vietnam 123 00:09:24.320 --> 00:09:26.600 has come over and said, will lower test to zero? 124 00:09:26.720 --> 00:09:29.000 Will you lower your taes? Will you lower these new 125 00:09:29.039 --> 00:09:32.639 tariffs for us? And Trump's basically said, well, let's negotiate. 126 00:09:33.559 --> 00:09:38.639 But this is not some way of achieving free trade, 127 00:09:38.799 --> 00:09:42.000 zero tarifs across the board. This is not some leverage 128 00:09:42.639 --> 00:09:46.559 he is putting on other countries to lower their tasks. Anyway, 129 00:09:48.279 --> 00:09:51.600 what has been happening in the last few days is 130 00:09:51.840 --> 00:09:54.720 the first day that Trump and We're gonna go through 131 00:09:54.799 --> 00:09:57.759 a little bit of financial market stuff. In the first 132 00:09:57.799 --> 00:10:04.559 few days, the Trump announced the reciprocal in quotation marks tariffs, 133 00:10:05.320 --> 00:10:08.279 which were some of them were sixty seventy percent, which 134 00:10:08.279 --> 00:10:10.639 were not reciprocal because it was just a trade deficit 135 00:10:10.679 --> 00:10:14.120 divided by exports, so just represented the extent to which 136 00:10:14.120 --> 00:10:16.320 we have a trade deficit with the country, not how 137 00:10:16.399 --> 00:10:21.039 much tariffs actually put in American goods. The stock market 138 00:10:21.039 --> 00:10:27.120 collapsed fifteen percent, uh and this morning it was going 139 00:10:27.159 --> 00:10:31.879 down further. At the same time, and another interesting phenomenon 140 00:10:32.000 --> 00:10:40.200 was going on the bond markets. This is a government 141 00:10:40.200 --> 00:10:46.159 bonds that are traded, and in the bond market, initially 142 00:10:47.240 --> 00:10:51.600 people sold stocks and boat bonds. Bonds are usually what's 143 00:10:51.639 --> 00:10:55.279 called the safe haven. When people panic, they buy bonds 144 00:10:55.279 --> 00:10:58.240 because bonds probably don't default, the US government probably is 145 00:10:58.240 --> 00:11:00.279 not going to default on them, and if for, they 146 00:11:00.279 --> 00:11:02.799 were safe haven, so everybody buys the bonds. When you 147 00:11:02.840 --> 00:11:06.480 buy bonds, you drive the price up, the yield, the 148 00:11:06.600 --> 00:11:09.000 interest rate. The ten in this case ten year interestright 149 00:11:09.639 --> 00:11:12.480 that everybody's watching went down and went down a lot 150 00:11:13.279 --> 00:11:15.519 in the first two days. In the first day after 151 00:11:15.679 --> 00:11:19.360 the tasks were announced, and then something curious started happening, 152 00:11:19.600 --> 00:11:23.399 which was completely unexpected or at least unexpected by most people. 153 00:11:24.440 --> 00:11:28.320 Stocks continued to go down, but then so did bonds, 154 00:11:28.799 --> 00:11:33.000 very similar to what happened during COVID. Bonds started collapsing. 155 00:11:34.159 --> 00:11:37.120 In other words, bonds American bonds were now viewed as 156 00:11:37.120 --> 00:11:41.240 a safe haven anymore, or somebody out there were selling 157 00:11:41.240 --> 00:11:45.279 American bonds. Ten year bonds and thirty year bonds were 158 00:11:45.320 --> 00:11:50.200 being sold in quantities that we just have not seen. 159 00:11:51.519 --> 00:11:54.159 In other words, the interest rate ten year inches straight 160 00:11:54.200 --> 00:12:00.200 and thirty year interest rate suddenly went up a lot. Now, 161 00:12:00.200 --> 00:12:05.080 if you remember on my show last week from Israel, 162 00:12:06.000 --> 00:12:09.759 I mentioned one of the ideas at Ludwig or Bessett 163 00:12:09.879 --> 00:12:15.559 or one of these mindless Trumpet appointees made on one 164 00:12:15.600 --> 00:12:18.840 of the talk shows, and he said, yeah, I mean, 165 00:12:19.120 --> 00:12:22.519 if the Stockholm goes down and there's a session the 166 00:12:23.120 --> 00:12:26.600 you know, interstates are coming down. Interstates will go down. 167 00:12:27.559 --> 00:12:29.879 That will allow the government to raise money at lower 168 00:12:29.960 --> 00:12:35.039 interest rates, save money on interest payments by the government, 169 00:12:35.240 --> 00:12:38.240 and that will reduce the deficit and reduce of debt. 170 00:12:38.600 --> 00:12:41.600 And that's a good thing. And there was a couple 171 00:12:41.639 --> 00:12:45.279 of days there, like Wednesday, Thursday or Thursday fighting it 172 00:12:45.320 --> 00:12:47.720 looked like, yeah, that looked like that might be happening. 173 00:12:49.360 --> 00:12:53.559 And then all of that reversed and suddenly interstate started 174 00:12:53.559 --> 00:12:56.240 going up. The ten year, the thirty year all going 175 00:12:56.320 --> 00:13:02.240 up significantly. I mean, so the highest percentage changes in 176 00:13:02.240 --> 00:13:06.200 interest rates on the way up that we've seen in 177 00:13:06.279 --> 00:13:10.919 modern times. I mean one day was it was higher 178 00:13:10.919 --> 00:13:16.360 than any other day since nineteen eighty two. Nineteen eighty two. 179 00:13:18.519 --> 00:13:21.120 Now that means it was doing the reverse or what 180 00:13:21.279 --> 00:13:25.120 best it. And Ludwig was saying, because now if they 181 00:13:25.120 --> 00:13:27.039 come in and wants to all money. For example, I 182 00:13:27.039 --> 00:13:31.080 think it issued thirty nine billion dollars worth of debt today, 183 00:13:33.320 --> 00:13:40.000 ten year debt. It paid, It wasn't paying less. It 184 00:13:40.039 --> 00:13:42.440 was actually paying more than it would have a week ago, 185 00:13:43.879 --> 00:13:45.960 or a little bit more than a week ago, but 186 00:13:46.080 --> 00:13:48.639 much more than what it had dropped in those first 187 00:13:48.639 --> 00:13:57.120 two days. So why did that happen? And why is 188 00:13:57.279 --> 00:14:02.480 that what ultimately I think forced Donald Trump's hand in 189 00:14:02.639 --> 00:14:05.120 pausing some of the taps. We'll get to them in 190 00:14:05.159 --> 00:14:10.120 a minute. You remember, I think I told you the 191 00:14:10.159 --> 00:14:17.720 story once of during Bill Clinton's term in the nineteen nineties, 192 00:14:18.600 --> 00:14:21.639 everybody talked about the bond market vigilantes, and every time 193 00:14:21.840 --> 00:14:23.960 the government did something the bond market didn't like, they 194 00:14:24.039 --> 00:14:26.360 drove into straights up and that forced the government's hand. 195 00:14:27.000 --> 00:14:29.399 And James Carvill said that if he was going to 196 00:14:29.480 --> 00:14:31.799 be born again, he wanted to be born as the 197 00:14:31.840 --> 00:14:34.159 bond market, because the bond market had the real power 198 00:14:34.240 --> 00:14:38.799 in the world, not presidents, not you know, political advisors. 199 00:14:38.919 --> 00:14:41.519 It was the bond market that drove the world. And 200 00:14:41.519 --> 00:14:46.759 that's what we saw this week. That's what we saw today. 201 00:14:47.519 --> 00:14:52.679 The bond market basically spoke and the bond market said, 202 00:14:54.200 --> 00:14:58.759 what Donald Trump is doing is insane. It's driving up risk, 203 00:15:00.200 --> 00:15:03.519 driving up the prospects of higher interest rates in the future, 204 00:15:04.399 --> 00:15:10.080 potentially inflation. But really what it drove up is not inflation. 205 00:15:10.200 --> 00:15:15.679 I think it's risk. It's risk of either the federal 206 00:15:15.720 --> 00:15:20.080 government defaulting or more likely, the federal government having to 207 00:15:20.159 --> 00:15:26.039 inflate in order to pay off its debts given the 208 00:15:27.360 --> 00:15:35.159 insane economic policies that are being followed. It's also the 209 00:15:35.200 --> 00:15:41.840 case that a lot of our bonds, government bonds, used 210 00:15:41.840 --> 00:15:46.960 government bonds, are being held by foreigners, the Chinese, the Japanese, 211 00:15:47.480 --> 00:15:54.399 the Europeans, and you know, suddenly all these people might 212 00:15:54.679 --> 00:15:58.919 be losing their appetite to invest in the United States, 213 00:16:00.519 --> 00:16:04.600 partially because the US is just behaving like a thug, 214 00:16:05.480 --> 00:16:10.840 and they it just for political reasons. Might think why 215 00:16:10.879 --> 00:16:15.919 should we put our money in an economy whose president 216 00:16:16.039 --> 00:16:22.440 is treating us like shit? And secondly because they might 217 00:16:22.480 --> 00:16:25.039 be looking at the US and saying US is heading 218 00:16:25.039 --> 00:16:28.679 towards a recession. Potentially these tariffs are not good for 219 00:16:28.720 --> 00:16:32.480 the US economy. Why would we want to invest in 220 00:16:32.519 --> 00:16:38.159 an economy in a downward spiral? An add to that, 221 00:16:38.320 --> 00:16:43.240 the fact then in spite of all the doge dam 222 00:16:45.279 --> 00:16:47.879 it looks like the Senate is going to pass a 223 00:16:47.919 --> 00:16:51.639 budget that is going to dramatically expand the deficit and 224 00:16:51.759 --> 00:16:54.720 increase government debt. Why would anybody want to buy government 225 00:16:54.799 --> 00:17:00.440 bonds US goverment bonds under those conditions? There is reason 226 00:17:00.480 --> 00:17:06.759 to believe that over the weekend Monday, and going into 227 00:17:06.759 --> 00:17:10.359 today a Tuesday, and going into this morning, when again 228 00:17:10.440 --> 00:17:15.640 the stock market was down this morning, either Japan or 229 00:17:15.720 --> 00:17:20.480 China or both were basically dumping. Their bonds were selling. 230 00:17:22.359 --> 00:17:25.000 And part of the problem there is if they sell 231 00:17:25.039 --> 00:17:29.519 their bonds, who's going to keep buying them? And the 232 00:17:29.519 --> 00:17:32.079 people who buy them aren't they going to expect to 233 00:17:32.160 --> 00:17:40.240 hire and hire indust rate. So what you saw over 234 00:17:40.240 --> 00:17:43.720 the last couple of days is a significant spike in 235 00:17:43.720 --> 00:17:47.160 interest rates in long term bonds, again the thirty year bonds, 236 00:17:47.559 --> 00:17:49.960 the ten year bonds. You also saw a massive increase, 237 00:17:50.559 --> 00:17:53.720 again almost unprecedent into the speed at which it happened, 238 00:17:54.200 --> 00:17:59.079 a massive increase in the implied yield of high yield 239 00:17:59.079 --> 00:18:02.599 bonds of junk bond that is the risk premium. The 240 00:18:02.640 --> 00:18:05.960 premium people are demanding to hold on to risky assets 241 00:18:06.240 --> 00:18:13.720 right now is very high. It's similar to what it 242 00:18:13.839 --> 00:18:20.880 was in March twenty twenty during COVID. All of this, 243 00:18:21.279 --> 00:18:25.599 I think caused the people around Trump to panic, I 244 00:18:25.640 --> 00:18:30.359 mean really panic. You saw elements of this over the weekend, 245 00:18:31.200 --> 00:18:35.880 particularly last couple of days, where Elon Musk came out 246 00:18:35.960 --> 00:18:40.599 against the tariffs, came out against Peter Navarro, started calling PETERA. 247 00:18:40.640 --> 00:18:44.279 Navaux names, Peter and Navarau started calling Trump names, and 248 00:18:44.359 --> 00:18:49.039 there was this whole public you know, attacking each other 249 00:18:49.079 --> 00:18:54.440 publicly between Navarro and Musk over these tariffs. In this case, 250 00:18:54.599 --> 00:18:58.640 Musk is right, Navao is a bigger idiot than his boss. 251 00:19:00.200 --> 00:19:02.160 If all was like the worst economists in the world. 252 00:19:02.200 --> 00:19:06.880 I think he owns that title now. But Worston, Paul Kogman, 253 00:19:07.200 --> 00:19:09.799 there's something for you. There's there's a there's a statement 254 00:19:09.839 --> 00:19:15.160 for Worston Paul Krugman. Uh So you could tell that 255 00:19:15.200 --> 00:19:19.759 there was already fiction with an administration. The various Trump 256 00:19:19.839 --> 00:19:23.000 representatives going on to the new shows, we're finding it 257 00:19:23.119 --> 00:19:25.799 more and more and more and more difficult to actually 258 00:19:25.839 --> 00:19:29.480 defend these tariffs. A number of academics, you know, when 259 00:19:29.480 --> 00:19:31.680 they came out with the tariffs, they cited a bunch 260 00:19:31.720 --> 00:19:34.400 of papers saying that this is where we got our 261 00:19:34.519 --> 00:19:37.759 numbers for the uh, you know, for these new tariffs. 262 00:19:37.799 --> 00:19:40.000 This is what we got the theory behind why we're 263 00:19:40.039 --> 00:19:42.880 doing these new traffs. Basically, the authors of those articles, 264 00:19:43.799 --> 00:19:47.599 one by one came out and said, that's not what 265 00:19:47.640 --> 00:19:51.440 our article says. And by the way, you're using the 266 00:19:51.440 --> 00:19:54.680 formula wrong. You're putting the wrong numbers in. In other words, 267 00:19:54.799 --> 00:20:01.559 you guys don't know what you're doing. And every single 268 00:20:01.599 --> 00:20:05.319 one of the arguments that the Trump mindless zombies was 269 00:20:05.359 --> 00:20:09.279 saying on TV was falling apart, and they were even Fox, 270 00:20:09.839 --> 00:20:14.319 even Fox propaganda channel, the Trump propaganda channel, that's what 271 00:20:14.359 --> 00:20:18.279 we should call it, the Trump propaganda channel. Fox was 272 00:20:18.359 --> 00:20:26.920 starting to have doubts about the towers. Of course we 273 00:20:27.000 --> 00:20:33.599 know Ben Shapiro was, of course doubting them. And I 274 00:20:33.640 --> 00:20:38.039 think there was there was just every increasing pressure going 275 00:20:38.079 --> 00:20:40.680 into this morning about this. And what happened this morning 276 00:20:40.839 --> 00:20:47.640 was stocks going down again and then bond yields went 277 00:20:47.759 --> 00:20:53.680 up again, and I think Trump's economic advisors went to 278 00:20:53.759 --> 00:21:00.559 him and said, this is a disaster. A few days ago, 279 00:21:01.000 --> 00:21:02.920 I can't remember what it was, it was Monday, or 280 00:21:03.079 --> 00:21:06.920 I think it was Friday. There was a rumor in 281 00:21:06.960 --> 00:21:10.799 the market before the market opened that Trump was going 282 00:21:10.880 --> 00:21:14.200 to pass tariff for ninety days, and it stucks growing 283 00:21:14.319 --> 00:21:16.920 up on the rumor, and then the White House the 284 00:21:17.000 --> 00:21:22.519 night of the rumor, and stucks collapsed. So Trump figured 285 00:21:22.519 --> 00:21:27.440 out how to make stocks go up. And today at 286 00:21:27.480 --> 00:21:32.960 around noon, actually one nineteen pm, you can tell because 287 00:21:32.960 --> 00:21:36.559 he posted this on social one nineteen pm, Trump came 288 00:21:36.599 --> 00:21:39.839 out with a statement basically for a ninety day pause 289 00:21:41.240 --> 00:21:48.920 on some of the tariffs. In other words, the pause 290 00:21:50.160 --> 00:21:56.759 is only on the portion that he called reciprocal. It's 291 00:21:56.759 --> 00:22:01.920 still true the ten percent tariffs on everybody go into 292 00:22:02.000 --> 00:22:07.920 effect immediately. It's still true the twenty five percent tariffs 293 00:22:07.920 --> 00:22:11.839 and cars and car parts are in place. It's still 294 00:22:11.880 --> 00:22:15.160 true that the twenty five percent tariffs on sudden goods 295 00:22:15.640 --> 00:22:19.640 from Canada and from Mexico, the Fenton Al tariffs are 296 00:22:19.720 --> 00:22:23.960 still in place. And this morning it was still true 297 00:22:24.640 --> 00:22:29.839 that tariffs on China were in place. Indeed, a part 298 00:22:29.880 --> 00:22:35.119 of his announcement for ninety day pause, Trump raised the 299 00:22:35.200 --> 00:22:41.720 tariffs on China. This is what he wrote, based on 300 00:22:41.759 --> 00:22:45.160 the lack of respect that China has shown to the 301 00:22:45.240 --> 00:22:49.359 world's markets. I am hereby raising the tariff charged to 302 00:22:49.480 --> 00:22:52.319 China by the United States to one hundred and twenty 303 00:22:52.359 --> 00:23:02.480 five percent effective immediately. In other words, in other words, 304 00:23:06.640 --> 00:23:10.480 China didn't come and gravel, they didn't kiss the ring, 305 00:23:14.039 --> 00:23:17.599 and therefore the bad guys they actually imposed reciprocal tarots 306 00:23:17.599 --> 00:23:19.880 of eighty four percent or something, And now he's up 307 00:23:19.920 --> 00:23:22.039 to the one twenty five, and who knows what they'll 308 00:23:22.079 --> 00:23:29.319 do tomorrow. This isn't him being tough on China. This 309 00:23:29.359 --> 00:23:39.000 is him just being his regular mindless, reactive tit for tat. 310 00:23:40.319 --> 00:23:42.680 They didn't kiss the ring. They insulted me, they're not 311 00:23:42.839 --> 00:23:45.599 nice to me. Respond so she picks up the phone 312 00:23:45.599 --> 00:23:50.000 tomorrow and talks nice to Trump and pats him on 313 00:23:50.039 --> 00:23:53.359 the back a little bit and kisses the ring a 314 00:23:53.440 --> 00:23:57.119 little bit. Even if the mild kiss, Trump will immediately 315 00:23:57.240 --> 00:24:01.599 lower the towers. There's no substancy. In other words, it's 316 00:24:01.599 --> 00:24:03.759 not like the one twenty five tabists is increased in 317 00:24:03.839 --> 00:24:06.039 China because China is a potential enemy of the United 318 00:24:06.079 --> 00:24:08.240 States and we own a bankrupt them because we don't 319 00:24:08.279 --> 00:24:12.039 want them to get strong and successful. No, this is 320 00:24:12.119 --> 00:24:22.640 just they didn't kiss the erring, he continues, and he 321 00:24:22.759 --> 00:24:25.799 is exactly. He is exactly the point. At some point, 322 00:24:25.799 --> 00:24:28.759 hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the 323 00:24:28.839 --> 00:24:32.119 days of ripping off the United States and other countries 324 00:24:32.240 --> 00:24:36.039 is no longer sustainable or acceptable. Conversely, and based on 325 00:24:36.039 --> 00:24:38.799 the fact that more than seventy five countries have called 326 00:24:38.839 --> 00:24:42.359 representatives of the United States, including the Department of Commerce, 327 00:24:42.400 --> 00:24:46.000 Treasury in the US Trade Representative, to negotiate a solution 328 00:24:46.440 --> 00:24:50.359 to the subjects being discussed relative to trade trade barriers tabis, coulency, manipulation, 329 00:24:50.559 --> 00:24:53.880 and non monetary talis, and that these countries have not, 330 00:24:54.119 --> 00:24:57.680 at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape or 331 00:24:57.680 --> 00:25:00.480 form against the United States. I've authorized one ninety eight 332 00:25:00.519 --> 00:25:04.200 pause and a substantially lower reciprocal TAFF during this period 333 00:25:04.240 --> 00:25:08.680 of ten percent, also effective immediately. In other words, they 334 00:25:08.759 --> 00:25:19.680 kissed the right, they came groveling. Now, notice that this 335 00:25:19.759 --> 00:25:26.359 is all BS because Donald Trump basically paused the tafts 336 00:25:27.480 --> 00:25:36.279 because financial markets were penalizing him and the economy for 337 00:25:36.400 --> 00:25:51.440 raising them. He blinked, he folded, he failed. As a consequence, 338 00:25:52.640 --> 00:25:58.759 stocks shut up. I've never seen such an upward movement 339 00:26:00.079 --> 00:26:05.279 out I think I don't know. I think it's nuts 340 00:26:05.759 --> 00:26:12.160 just my personal opinion. Stocks or does the market the 341 00:26:12.200 --> 00:26:15.759 technology stocks? Are they really worth twelve percent more than 342 00:26:15.759 --> 00:26:19.160 they were yesterday based on ninety day pause by our 343 00:26:20.319 --> 00:26:25.200 strongman leader. I don't see how. I don't see how 344 00:26:25.240 --> 00:26:28.559 this affects it that much. Yeah, they should have been 345 00:26:28.640 --> 00:26:33.960 up three to four percent, twelve percent at the same time. Note, 346 00:26:34.160 --> 00:26:36.640 and this is why I don't think this rise in 347 00:26:36.680 --> 00:26:42.480 stock prices sustainable. At the same time, bonds continue to 348 00:26:42.480 --> 00:26:46.160 go down. That is, the yield went up not as 349 00:26:46.240 --> 00:26:48.839 much as it had this morning. So after the pause, 350 00:26:51.359 --> 00:26:53.759 bond went up a little bit relative to where they 351 00:26:53.759 --> 00:26:56.799 were in the morning, but they still ended the day down. 352 00:26:57.119 --> 00:26:59.440 In other words, inter states went up, the ten year 353 00:26:59.440 --> 00:27:01.960 interestrate went up. I think the three year went up 354 00:27:01.960 --> 00:27:06.720 as well. And generally when interestates go up, long term 355 00:27:06.759 --> 00:27:11.680 interestates in particular stocks should come down. So mixed messages here. 356 00:27:13.400 --> 00:27:16.960 I don't think the rally in stocks is sustainable. There's 357 00:27:17.119 --> 00:27:21.200 not enough here to sustain that rally. Ten percent tariff 358 00:27:21.599 --> 00:27:24.400 on all inputs into the United States and addition to 359 00:27:24.440 --> 00:27:29.039 the inputs that you already exist, means a five acs 360 00:27:29.119 --> 00:27:31.920 of the existing tariffs. Taraffs are about two percent right now, 361 00:27:32.079 --> 00:27:36.319 and they're going to ten percent. That's five x the tariffs. 362 00:27:37.920 --> 00:27:40.960 And then, of course the big issue is one of 363 00:27:40.960 --> 00:27:43.960 our big trading partners is China. We export a lot 364 00:27:44.000 --> 00:27:47.440 to China, we input a lot to China. Basically China 365 00:27:47.480 --> 00:27:54.400 trade is dead. And what exactly this means is hard 366 00:27:54.440 --> 00:27:59.160 to tell. Amazon I read this, I read today Amazon 367 00:27:59.279 --> 00:28:03.799 is suspending all purchases from China because they can't raise 368 00:28:03.799 --> 00:28:06.680 prices by one hundred and twenty five percent, So they're 369 00:28:06.680 --> 00:28:09.119 just not gonna They're just not gonna buy anything. And that's, 370 00:28:09.160 --> 00:28:12.599 of course what happens. It's not that they sell exactly 371 00:28:12.599 --> 00:28:14.319 the same volume of goods as one hundred and twenty 372 00:28:14.319 --> 00:28:19.000 five percent tariff. They land up selling zero goods at 373 00:28:19.000 --> 00:28:22.839 one hundred and twenty five percent tariffs. And indeed, many many, 374 00:28:22.880 --> 00:28:26.319 many companies out there, many many small businesses, large businesses, 375 00:28:26.559 --> 00:28:33.960 medium sized businesses who buy goods, or buy materials, or 376 00:28:34.000 --> 00:28:37.799 buy anything from China, many of them are going to 377 00:28:37.880 --> 00:28:40.079 go out of business. They're going to try to source 378 00:28:40.160 --> 00:28:44.240 material from elsewhere, but it's going to be rough. They 379 00:28:44.279 --> 00:28:53.759 can't buy it from China anymore. They can't. By the way, 380 00:28:54.319 --> 00:28:57.839 China has very low tariffs and US goods, very low 381 00:28:57.880 --> 00:29:03.240 tariffs and US goods. So it's not we're not penalizing 382 00:29:03.319 --> 00:29:07.279 China of having high tariffs. They don't, and they have 383 00:29:07.559 --> 00:29:13.079 been declining for the last thirty years, steady systematic decline, 384 00:29:13.440 --> 00:29:16.960 and they're very low, lower than ten percent. Sole ten 385 00:29:16.960 --> 00:29:20.319 percent tariff on everybody is already higher than what China 386 00:29:20.839 --> 00:29:25.559 tariff's US goods. This has nothing to do with how 387 00:29:25.680 --> 00:29:30.079 other countries tariff the US. Israel has a ten percent, 388 00:29:30.480 --> 00:29:33.759 zero percent tariff on US goods. Now under this new scheme, 389 00:29:35.119 --> 00:29:37.559 Israeli goods coming into the United States will be tariffed 390 00:29:37.559 --> 00:29:42.759 at ten percent. There's no relationship between the two. Trump 391 00:29:44.279 --> 00:29:50.759 has no conception of what trade means, and white trade 392 00:29:50.759 --> 00:29:58.400 difficits don't matter. We talked about this last week, so 393 00:29:58.440 --> 00:30:01.599 here we are today with a pause for ninety days. 394 00:30:01.880 --> 00:30:06.359 But of course Trump has already said that this doesn't 395 00:30:06.400 --> 00:30:14.160 mean that we won't have tariffs on other goods. He 396 00:30:14.400 --> 00:30:18.200 is probably gonna imposed house specific tariffs on a number 397 00:30:18.200 --> 00:30:20.680 of different goods being inputed into the United States and 398 00:30:20.720 --> 00:30:23.039 various places around the world, just like he did an 399 00:30:23.079 --> 00:30:29.359 automobile and steal. Note that the Trump zombies o wout 400 00:30:29.480 --> 00:30:33.559 enforced today saying, look, what a genius Trump. This is 401 00:30:33.559 --> 00:30:37.359