Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. Everybody is Friday. It's time for
full court press. Our guy Rob Vino is going to
be in the sky in a minute. He's flying to
Vegas today. As you know from the East coast. That's
like an all day long flight, all day thing. But
we've got Matt Winnick with us. If you've been with
us since the beginning of the year, you remember Matt
a couple of times from Thanksgiving week Feast week we
had him in twice.
Speaker 2: So Matt, welcome back.
Speaker 1: And for the new people that we've dragged in along
the way, introduce yourself and let them know where they
can find your stuff.
Speaker 3: Yep, Matthew at Matthew Winnock on Twitter. A lot of
content on Basket Under Review and then everything else. All
my other ramblings will just be on my Twitter page.
College basketball is my three hundred and sixty five day
year job. So it's it's college hoops every day.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't say enough about the Basket under Review site.
I mean, I've been friends with the three man weave
guys or a decade now, I think at this point,
and you know, to get everyone in the same place.
Speaker 2: Essentially was a genius idea it is. I don't know.
Speaker 1: If you don't go there for like your home base
for college basketball coverage, I think you're doing yourself a disservice.
Speaker 2: So truly incredible.
Speaker 1: This was the first year it was Basket under Review
in the kind of this format, and it's been outstanding.
Speaker 2: And there's still there's still a lot of games to play. Matre.
Speaker 1: We're it's almost over, but it's like just starting in
a sense, right, Like we still have n I T
games this weekend, a slew of games the next three days.
And you know I always start the show with a
feature game, but yesterday I said to Rob, there's no
feature getting there all bit, every game is like the
same magnitude. One tournament game is not bigger than the other.
So I'm gonna start. We started talking off air, and
we're gonna start with a little two for one. I
want to talk both one seeds against the both won
sixteen matchups today. So you've got Florida playing Prairie View,
Arizona playing Long Island. Yes, this was my way to
incorporate Sienna College Sienna University now into the show one
more time. You know, it was a heartbreaker for me,
even though I had a nice win out plus twenty
nine and a half. Everyone in the country was a
Sienna fan for a minute yesterday, at least for a
little bit. But the reason I bring that up is
because I think, listen, if you've really followed some of
these smaller teams this year, Howard Sianna, like, I don't
think it was crazy to think that Sienna would would
sort of have a good showing in that game. I
don't think anyone expected them to have a thirteen point
second half lead, even Howard at one point, Matt. They
went to UNC Wilmington Trash Coliseum and won on the road,
So to think that they could cover thirty against Michigan
not crazy. I guess what I'm trying to set up
here is the two sixteen seeds today. I just don't
know how the same jew as yesterday's. I'm gonna look
at Florida, I'm gonna look at Arizona. Do you think
both big favorite smash in the one verse sixteens today?
Speaker 3: I do, but I think they're gonna do it in
different ways. For Florida, I just think that praiview A
and M's a really bad team, Like they're winning a
lot of games. Of course it was the Swack and
of course it was Lehigh, and we've seen in recent
years that Swack teams kind of have an edge in
these you know, typically a Slack team's gonna play like
a Northeast team, whether it's the America East or the
Patriot or the NEC or whatever it might be, and
they just have such an athleticism edge if they find
a way to win those games. No athleticism edge against
Florida and Prayview. A and M's offense is basically just
Dante Horden going io in the mid range and Florida
will be like cool, I'm good with that. I have
Prairieview team total under in that game it's sixty ish
Ken Pomas, it's sixty one. I just think that Florida
don't want to take the full game under because Florida
might score one hundred and ten points. But I do
not think pray View top sixty. In the other game,
lu is gonna run with Arizona, and as a mid major,
big underdog, you don't want to run with Arizona. That
seems like a disaster. Lu can actually shoot the three,
and Arizona defends the rim really well. I think that
Arizona picks their number and could score one hundred and
ten points on LU because of the game's going to
be so fast.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I kind of feel like both these teams could
pick their number. I was at the Florida Arkansas game
a couple of weeks ago down in Gainesville where they
seemingly picked their number on an SEC team, and they
did that a couple of times this year. So for
me like that, if I had to look at the two,
I guess I do have some respect for l IU
and the way they've played up a couple of times
in the last couple of years to some bigger opponents.
Speaker 2: But I'm with you in the respect that this was.
Speaker 1: I'm sure LU would have rather had Duke as well, right,
like something that like contrasted a style a little bit, because, Yeah,
if you're going to get in a track meet for
forty minutes or that's you know, the way that you
would want to play, you probably don't want to do
it against Arizona. But Florida is the team where it's
like it's gonna just come down to if they have
any mercy or not, if they want to put up
one hundred and ten one hundred and fifteen today they'll
they'll do that, And that's the one I kind of
look and say, Okay, thirty, we're at thirty five.
Speaker 2: Thirty five and a half hasn't really moved much.
Speaker 1: So it's not like you've had a scenario, not like
a Michigan where you know, the number came out and
then it was bet three four points. In the other way,
you could still easily take like thirty five minus one
fifteen at some of the more public books right now
that there's those do exist right now at a couple
of the legals, is what I meant to say. And man,
I kind of think Florida could have the fifty point
win today. So if I had to choose one of
those two, I think I'd lay it with the Gators
for sure.
Speaker 3: And put it this way, Florida won by twenty six
points against Norfolk State last year in the first run
as a one seed. Pray View is one hundred and
two spots worse on camp than Norfolk State was during
that game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and something I wanted to bring up before we
move on, because I Slick Vick here says, you know,
Sienna was up thirteen points, and they were up eleven
at halftime, yet they were still plus eleven and a
half on the live line.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: So I saw this on Twitter, and this sounds right
to me. I didn't check this, like I didn't fact
check this. But even with Sienna having a thirteen point
lead in the second half, they were never an in
game favorite to win the game. So Duke was always
still the in play favorite, even going into the under
sixteen media time out still down double digits, they were
always the in play favorite to win the game. That
shows you the difference or the golf in talent between
the ones and the sixteens. But I think it's more
pronounced today than maybe the books are even sort of saying.
So I listen, the two sixteen seeds, Sienna and Howard
covered the number yesterday.
Speaker 2: I think I think you could see a one seed
sweep there today.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be at all surprised if Arizona and Florida
covered the number today.
Speaker 3: You know, I want you to guess, what do you
think the lowest percent chance Ken Palm gave Duke at
any point during that game yesterday.
Speaker 1: Lowest percent chance, I think, so basically, what percent chance
did Sienna have to win?
Speaker 2: Like what was the highest for them or could I
look at them either way?
Speaker 3: Whatever we went want to slice, I can do the
inverse math.
Speaker 1: I would say Sienna got as high as like a
fifteen percent chance to win the game.
Speaker 3: Not bad, twenty four point two percent, and that was
when they were leading sixty one fifty six with eight
minutes for me.
Speaker 2: Okay, so that was on the live run and it
was done.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's just like and so then just
to do a little comparison, like yesterday you had Sienna
opened twenty nine and a half and Howard was up
as high as I think thirty or thirty one. You're
really only being asked to lay a couple more points
in today's games. Yet this just feels like such a
bigger gap than those two. Maybe it's the benefit of
hindsight having seen them play, but I'll just go back
to like Howard going in to win at Wilmington, Sienna
sort of you know, playing the way that they were
playing going into that at that game and having a
Gaven Dotie and stuff like that. This these two six
teams just seem so much weaker to me that I
think you could take both one seats.
Speaker 3: I wouldn't say that. I mean LU is in the
in the territory of Howard and then territory of Sienna.
It's just Arizona is such a bad matchup for a
team that wants to run and has to get to
the rim, like you got to be slow and shoot threes.
I mean, think about when Tommy Lloyd last lost a
first round game against Princeton, and think about how different
Lu is than Princeton, And that's just like Princeton is
the style of team that has a chance in a
game like this, and lu is just not. Not to mention,
I don't think that Rod Strickland's anywhere near the coach
that Mitchenderson is.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I had a big play on Princeton in that
game and then the next game that was was three
years ago. Best tournament in my life from a from
a betting standpoint. I I don't know if I'll ever
recreate that. We can always we can always try. I
think I had hit fourteen straight bets that tournament before
losing a bet that like should have like, I lost
like inexplicable loss to end the streak.
Speaker 2: So it's always how it goes, I had.
Speaker 1: I had a good run last week that ended on
cal Baptist Utah Valley, which I maybe we'll get to
cal Baptist at some point. But yeah, it always it
always seems like when you're really on a big run,
it's gonna end on some crazy like just gave you
probably should have won anyway. Yeah, all right, Garth, let's
get Garth going here. He said rough o in three
day yesterday. Yeah, we got a bet. What we're gonna
bounce back Garth. He's had a great season. He's a
regular contributor to the to the chat. Appreciate the donation.
He wants to go. UCLA. They're taking on UCF. I
guess the lead into this game, Matt, is you know
the health of UCLA. I thought that they were playing
great ball and then they kind of you know, I
didn't even think they played poorly. Without a couple guys
in the Big ten tournament. I think they're probably at
full strength today. I'd be shocked if they don't show
up with everyone ready to go. It's the NCAA tournament.
But I don't know, have you heard anything different? And
how are you seeing UCLA UCF abill it was.
Speaker 3: At least a question mark bent for sures in the
thing with UCLA is they don't really have a true big.
Xavier Booker at the five is a little undersized under
physical physicality wise, UCF is a very physical frontcourt and
they're very big j Michael Stillwell and John Bowle that
I think ucl wins this game. UCLA is the way
more skilled team, They're the better coach team. But I
convividly remember watching I was on Texas Tech going into UCF.
I think this would be in January, and Texas Tech,
just as a smaller team with smaller guards, really struggled
with the interior size of UCF. And though I do
think UCLA wins this game, I'm a little bit hesitant
on the multi possession spread because I wonder how physical
UCF is down low and what type of issues that
gives UCLA, especially if Tyler Bildeau was limited.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I'm glad you brought up the Texas Tech
game that was actually January thirty first. It was definitely
the high point of the season so far for UCF
because after winning that game, they they finished the regular
season three and six. They split in the Big Twelve tournament,
but I think more concerning, if you will, than the record,
there was the fact that like Houston twenty four point loss,
Cincinnati twenty four point loss, got crushed, gave up one
to eleven to Oklahoma State, gave up eighty seven to Baylor,
got blown out by West Virginia last game of the
regular season, and then just got crushed by Arizona in
the Big Twelve tournament. So some very lopsided losses, some
you know, like I really felt like their defense started
to go in that last month of the season. But
it's an interesting I always it's always interesting going conference tournament,
especially when you get eliminated early to NCAA tournament because
you get the week off. This will be eight days
since they last played. And I think something that I'm
trying to figure out exactly how I want to like
quantify it, because more of these teams play today.
Speaker 2: But man, the Big twelve best.
Speaker 1: Conference I think in college basketball this year, at least
at the top, and those teams really like beat up
on each other. So you gotta do you give the
Big Twelve teams a little bit of a of a
break when they maybe had a rough February. Now that
like they're nearing the end of the gauntlet. They're exhausted,
and now they get eight days to sort of regroup
and you know, kind of like reset.
Speaker 2: Does that make you like more because of that?
Speaker 3: Maybe the Big Ten? I mean, I guess the head Wisconsin,
the SEC also did very well. Georgia obviously laid a stinker,
but everyone else won at least so far. I guess
at the end of the day, maybe, especially because UCF
was a little banged up down the stretch, as everyone was.
John Boll got hurt in they were lost in the
Big Twelve tournament, but he should be fine. I just
think about how physical the Big Twelve is, like how
many teams trap ball screens and how many teams rebound
really well, and like maybe that actually adds value to
UCF because they endured that. And yeah, they struggled down
the stretch, but it's like they did play a lot
of you know, really physical, big teams and they were
very good in the non con. So again, I think
UCLA wins. But as someone who loves I think UCLA
is awesome. I think they're underrated. I am a little
worried about the size this matchup.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, you could look at it from the
if you're looking at it from the UCLA side, I mean,
prior to kind of getting some tough injury lot going
into the Purdue game, they I mean, they looked as
good as they've looked all season.
Speaker 2: Yeah, beating Michigan State.
Speaker 1: I think a full strength UCLA has a very good
chance to beat Perdue in that game. Already beat them
once during the regular season and down the stretch. I mean,
if you if you'll forgive the hiccup at the Barn,
which is which is fine.
Speaker 2: That's a tough place to play.
Speaker 1: And you know, that was a kind of a one
off road game for them going up to Minnesota on
a one off like they have been as impressive as
anyone since like mid February.
Speaker 3: And not to be not to be a Mick Cronin apologist,
but I think in a way, and I kind of
took this lesson last year when I picked Utah State
to beat UCLA in the around of sixty four last year,
and it wasn't even close in a way New Big
Ten teams or in any of these conferences West Coast
teams that have to go back and forth coast to
coast every other week are underrated because if you look
at all of UCLA's worst results, double digit loss at
Ohio State, double digit loss at Michigan at Michigan State,
loss at Minnesota, like you mentioned at Wisconsin at Iowa State.
Their only home loss in lead and play was a
double overtime one point lost to Indiana. They were very
good in the Big Ten tournament. They were pretty good
in the non con almost to beat Arizona, competed with Gonzaga,
and then they were awesome at home. So in a way,
these teams that have to go back and forth and
back and forth every other week are probably a little underrated,
at least in power rankings at this time of the year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and the other thing is too, it's like travel
for the NCAA tournament is not the same as travel
during the regular season.
Speaker 2: Like everyone is getting in a plane and going somewhere.
Speaker 1: You're showing up multiple days early, everyone's running through the
same practice, media session, it's all the same thing. So
it's like there are travel spots that are tough. Like
I remember, just because I have friends that went to
Seaton Hall. I remember Seaton Hall got sent out like
after they like they got sent way out West and
it was like a logistical nightmare and then they got
smashed by like Gonzaga, Like there's there's always gonna be
like a couple like of Outliers. But for the most part,
I don't think travel is ever like a huge deal
for NCAA tournament because they get there a.
Speaker 3: Question for you then not to skip a hat or
to go off of track. But I know that we
don't really care on the show that much as someone
who picked Santa Clara today. Are we worried that it's
a nine to fifteen am local tip for their top
body clock?
Speaker 1: You know, that's a really interesting like the body clock
thing is very interesting in my opinion, we can go
right to that game because I'm the interesting thing about
that game, Matt, is how many how many people are
gravitating toward the Santa Claric side kind of acting like
Kentucky just doesn't have much of a chance.
Speaker 2: Uh that's you? So you so you who do you
like your Kentucky?
Speaker 3: I like no, I like Santa Clara here, Okay, I
mean they have a chance.
Speaker 1: But right, but but I guess, like I guess you
know it, just you know what I don't I made
this whole point the other day. This tournament is the
one time of year where you you can't worry if
like every like the public underdog is not a thing
because it's it's March madness. The public is going to
love almost every underdog. And I kind of made this
point with South Florida. They were a super public like
publicly backed dog yesterday. Now I didn't know it would
go the way it did where they go down twenty
and then have to like fight back, but I never
put that stock. Like Miami, Ohio today is another one.
I don't think you should worry about, like the fact
that everyone likes them, wants them to win, so on
and so forth. But but yeah, we can stay on
this game. So West to I've always found West to
East is tougher. I feel like you can. You can
do that in any sport where it's like, go look
at the NFL West Coast teams struggle in that one
PM kick all the time. It's just like every year
sometimes they stay on the East Coast because of it.
So I know, for me, I've lived in New York
my entire life. Anytime I go out to the West Coast,
coming back is always more difficult. So yeah, there could
be something to the early tip and maybe the body
clocks not being adjusted. But Santa Clara, unlike some of
the other West Coast teams, I do believe Santa Clara's
come East at least once.
Speaker 2: Didn't they win at Xavier earlier this year.
Speaker 3: Yep, it killed Xavier killed.
Speaker 1: So sometimes sometimes, like I don't know, I think it's
maybe a little bit more difficult for the team that
maybe never left California once all year and then has
to come east. But even like year and a year out,
I feel like Santa Clara will put some miles here
during non conference play. Maybe that helps them a little bit.
Speaker 3: I think it's about the travel and it's more about
the tip, like the tip being nine in the morning,
like it's ten in the morning. At nine in the morning,
for me today, I could not have played a basketball.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you're right about that. I think ESPEC.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the tip time definitely is because listen, even if
you're an East Coast team, I mean you you've seen
some teams that are on the East Coast come out
at the twelve, twelve to fifteen tip in this tournament,
and it's like they weren't they weren't there.
Speaker 2: I mean, there's always just going I'm just going off
of memory.
Speaker 1: There's been teams that have gotten blown out in this
spot where you have to wonder if having to tip
off at twelve fifteen in a weekday mess with them
a little bit. So yeah, I could, I guess. I
think it's something that can take into consideration. But onto
the game, you said you like Santa Clara. They've been
a super impressive team to me this year, So, like,
I understand why people think they have a really good
chance here.
Speaker 2: Just talk to me about why you like the matchup
for Santa Clara in this game.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So Santa Clara is a team that's gonna allow
a lot at the rim. They're gonna accept that you're
gonna score at the rim against them because they pressure
the ball so much. They're going to force a lot
of turnovers. They're gonna take away your open three pointers,
and they're going to run in transition and help to
take advantage of your bad missus. They've only lost one
game all year when a team shoots below fifty nine
percent above fifty nine percent from two point range. So
if you can't make sixty percent of your twos. You're
not beating Santa Clara because that's their only weakness. Kentucky
is not a very good two point offense. They finished
tenth in the SEC and two point percentage. They've only
topped sixty percent four times against the top one hundred
team this year, and they've played I don't know, like
twenty five top one hundred games, so four out of
those twenty five of the top sixty percent. They can
do it here, but it's not like they have elite
post presence. Otega Oway is a good downhill driver, but
he's more of a mid range scorer than at the rim.
And the question is ten Kentucky be a dominant ridden
team against a Santa Clara team that's going to let
you do that? And I just don't think this Kentucky
team is that good. I ask anyone that talks to
me to Kentucky this, and if you have a good
answer for me, I don't buy all means. Is Kentucky
really good at no?
Speaker 2: I have no answers a really good question.
Speaker 3: They're not a top fifty in anything.
Speaker 1: I think they're really good at getting up for teams
that are better than them, which doesn't really doesn't really
play here.
Speaker 2: Sure, that's about all.
Speaker 1: That's about all I can say that they could get
up for like the Florida's and like the but but
now as the in the role of the favorite, like
they're not, like it's hard to get up for you
got okay, So let's make the argument. Kentucky still got
to play at twelve fifteen and they got to play
Santa Clara. Are they going to be up for this
game at twelve fifteen against the West Coast Conference team
means the NCAA Tournament.
Speaker 3: I genuinely think Santa Clara has a better team than
Kentucky today. It's fair with with Jaden Quintins and with
Jaylen Lowe, like maybe it's a different story with the
current rosters. I genuinely think Santa Clara is better and
I think that it's a good matchup because Kentucky won't
be able to expose their rim defense. And that's exactly
why Gonzaga was able to meet them so easily.
Speaker 2: I will tell you this, I've struggled.
Speaker 1: Kentucky's the team one of the teams I've struggled with
the most. Trying to manipulate my number for them with
the omission, so no Quintin's no low. Like, I've had
a really hard time because I oftentimes show value on Kentucky,
and I feel like it's because I'm I haven't I
haven't made the correct adjustment. So I haven't bet many
Kentucky games because of that. But just going off of
like watching them play all year, i'd prefer them in
the role like they were a couple, like like against Florida,
where they're a dog, they're kind of playing with house money.
Speaker 2: I don't really like them the favorite role at all.
Speaker 3: I don't like taking Kentucky games because when I'm like
a lot of my betting is matchup based and like
what are you really good at and strengths versus strengths
or weaknesses, and it's just Kentucky is so mad at everything.
They're not particularly bad at much. They don't really rebound
the ball that well, and they don't force a lot
of turnovers. But I like taking cen of Clericy in
because it's like, oh, they're going to win the reboundinger,
Oh they're going to win the turnover battler. Oh they're
going to make more three players Kentucky. It's kind of
just like they put five guys on the court and
then play basketball like they have no distinct style, they
have no distinct advantage, they have no distinct strength. They
just kind of play.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's I think those are fair points
and it'll be interesting. That's one of the ones where
I flip flopped on that one a couple of times.
There was a point in time this week where I
was like, oh, I'll definitely be on Santa Clara. Here
I started to talk myself into Kentucky. So typically when
I do that, it's it's an easy pass. But that'll
that'll be one that I'm very interested to watch. So
you want to talk about matchups and styles, Let's go
to this game out because I want to talk about
this one. So Matt, remember, we do a parlay on
this show. So I don't know if rob my co
host Rob Riino, is is. I told him he could
send in a parlay leg if he wants too, So
if he does, it'll be a three teamer.
Speaker 2: If he doesn't, it'll just be you and I. We
are chasing a couple of units on the year.
Speaker 1: But also it's March twentieth, and the fact that we're
even in striking distance is solid, so hopefully we can
hit today. I want to talk about a game that
I have an opinion on. I caught some of one
of your shows earlier this week, and I believe you
were talking with Brian Ralph about this game, and I'm
pretty sure you have an opinion on it as well.
We may agree, so let's talk Miami of Ohio, Tennessee.
Wager Talk clipped me from our selection Sunday show special
where the pairings came out and they asked me for
a hot take, and my hot take was Miami of
Ohio wins multiple games in the NCAA tournament. And I
thought that that just was just gonna die in the
show because we did like a two hour show. But
they clipped it and put it on TikTok, and so
I had a bunch of people coming at me and
I said, Oh, this is either really good or really bad. Right,
We're either going to We're either gonna am I still am? I?
Can you hear me?
Speaker 2: Still?
Speaker 3: You're good?
Speaker 1: That Central New York WHI internet right there just just
I don't know. We we have a pretty windy day here.
I don't know why I would my internet would not
be working. But anyway, coming back to this game, you know,
I was I was like, I was happy they clipped it,
but I wasn't because I was like, man, if SMU
comes and just rolls them, I'm gonna look really dumb
on TikTok here. But anyway, I made the point that
that I said, you know, Miami of Ohio, I think
they can win multiple games in this tournament. And part
of my reasoning for that was they just played a
month and a half worth of games where they had
the biggest target on their back and they were they
were they were hunted by everyone. On the night in
a night out basis, I went to the Ohio game,
which was one of the best games I've ever had
the privilege of being at Miami of Ohio, Ohio and Athens,
and even with them favored in that game, it felt
like they were kind of the underdog because we were
in Athens and you know, it was ten thousand people
cheering against them, and I'm just like, man, they love this.
They love this role of being like the you're gonna
doubt us role, and now Matt, they are in that role.
They were in that role on Wednesday when they blew
out SMU, and they're very much in that role today
against Tennessee. So am I crazy to think Miami of
Ohio can win this game despite the fact that they're
now a double digit underdog.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I did pick Miami Ohio on my show
with Brian on Sunday or I'll really s on Monday. Unfortunately,
I've come around and change my mind.
Speaker 2: Okay, talk to me about why I'll.
Speaker 3: Actually probably be on Tennessee against the spread. And the
reason why is Tennessee's the number one offensive rebounding team
in the country. Forty five percent of their missus they
get back Miami Ohio. Obviously, the MAC is not a
dominant offensive rebounding conference. In fact, I'll tell you right now,
they were twenty first at thirty conferences an offensive hund
percentage as a conference. They've played one really good offensive
rebounding team and that's UMass, and they've allowed Tennessee. I said,
forty five percent of their missus, right They've only allowed
forty five percent one time all year to anyone, and
it was their loss. So when they allow my Tennessee's
offensive rebounding average or more, they're zero to one. And
when they allow below Tennessee's offensive rebounding average. They are
thirty two in oh So my question to myself was,
can Miami allow Tennessee below their offensive rebounding average? And
I just don't think they can. And so if Tennessee's
gonna grab forty five to fifty percent of their misses,
can Miami shooting and shot making be great enough against
a Tennessee defense that is twenty times better than SMU
without BJ Edwards. And I just don't think they can.
Speaker 2: So I got in.
Speaker 1: It wasn't an argument, but like you know, I had
you know, at Miami of Ohio wins eighty nine to
seventy nine, pretty convincing win for a seven point dog
against SMU. I had people coming in and saying, well, like, well,
they just they just shot there, they shot out of
their minds, And I said, no, they didn't.
Speaker 2: I was like that.
Speaker 1: I said, if if Miami of Ohio shot out of
their minds against SMU, they would have won by twenty five.
Speaker 2: They would have won that game much bigger than they did.
Speaker 1: There was a stretch in the first half where I
thought we were I thought I was in trouble with
Miami of Ohio plus seven because they missed nine shots
in a row and I said, Okay, well that can't
happen against the team the caliber of SMU. But turned out,
no BJ Edwards, SMU just wasn't that good. I kind
of had said that all year, and so you know,
I'm acknowledging. I'll acknowledge right now, no question, Tennessee is
a much better team than SMU. But Tennessee for me,
so I don't know how much of this was the
fact that I was at the Tennessee Syracuse game earlier
this year kind of saw Syracuse punch them in the
mouth and ever since that game, and this is where
sometimes you going to games can be great because you
get like a I think you get a unique perspective
that's ultimately you can draw from maybe more, especially if
you're able to get near.
Speaker 2: The court and stuff like that.
Speaker 1: But sometimes it can work the other way where it's
like it sticks in your head all like for for
a long period of time because you saw the team
up close. And I'll be honest, ever since that day,
I was like, this Tennessee team is not the Tennessee
team of the past couple of years, namely on the
defensive end. I don't think this Tennessee team is as
good defensively as if they've been in past year. So
I see where you're coming from with the rebounding aspect.
But is there a world where Miami of Ohio just
goes nuclear and they can't do anything about it?
Speaker 3: So what Miami did against Simme, I think was really
really smart is they just played five out the whole
time and like even Antoine Willfolk, they're five men who
can't shoot, and went zero for three from three and
I think at least two of those were airballs. Like
it still was smart because it did everything they could
to get cemit Ugatoglu out of the paint, not blocking
shots and having a defend on the perimeter. The problem
is SeMet Ukutoglu is one of the worst, like on
ball perimeter defenders in the entire country. And the five
men they're plowing out with Tennessee is Felix Akpara, who
is absolutely good enough defensively on the perimeter like handle
switches to handle playing in the perimeter. And I just
don't think the five out strategy that Miami is going
to have to employ here actually works as well against Tennessee.
Because their bigs are way better outside defenders than SMU's
were they like Travis Steel excellent coaching job. SMU is
gonna play two bigs, make everyone play on the perimeter,
and Tennessee can do that way better. I think.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: And I think it's also worth noting if you know,
if Jillespie or men or let's say both of them
have have very strong offensive showings in this game, Miami
Ohio would be it probably be in trouble if that's
the case those I mean, when those two don't play
well offensively. I think Tennessee can struggle a little bit.
But then again, it probably Miami Ohio might need some
luck on the where the ball bounces when it comes
off the rim for Tennessee because that stat was the
one that maybe you know where it's like Tennessee grabs
like such a high percentage of their misses that if
they're just getting like put back after put back second
chance points, easy buckets, you might need a big time
shooting performance from Miami of Ohio. But hey, there's not
many teams that could do it. I think they're one
of the teams that could just shoot lights out for
forty minutes.
Speaker 2: So it'll it'll be a fun one.
Speaker 3: That's the thing about Tennessee as well, is when they
play bad defenses, they win by a lot like Miami's
one hundred and fifty second in ken Tom defense. The
three teams above them that Tennessee's played, Auburn, Rutgers, LSU,
they won those games by eight, ten, twenty five, and ten.
And then those teams ranked below Miami in defensive rating
they went by thirty nine, twenty nine, fifteen, twenty five,
fifty one, forty two, and thirty three. So they can
beat bad defense. Is it's just when they play really
good defense, when you only have two good players, it's
not good enough. I'm forty for saying all these things.
I know you like Miami, and I hope you're right.
Speaker 2: Hey, a lot of fun.
Speaker 3: I just feel like the run.
Speaker 1: Ends here, so I'll so first, I just want to answer,
so crazy crazy sticks, what time does your picks drop today?
I've already got two picks locked in. I haven't bet
anything else. I have two plays locked in. One is
my biggest bet of this round. It's a five percent.
That's our max rating on the site. You can get
that over on wager talk. Matt, you can give this
is an we'll do the mid show promo here if
you missed the beginning of the show. You can find
all of his stuff on his own Twitter account. What's
the Twitter handle?
Speaker 2: Again? I should have probably had it on.
Speaker 3: This at my first name, last name, Matthew Linneck right there.
Speaker 1: So at first name, last name right there on the screen,
but also headed over to Basket under Review because Matt
is part of a conglomerate of people on Basket under Review,
most of them which you probably know, that put out
phenomenal content. They've been doing it all season, and it
is even though there's only a couple of weeks left.
I mean, we still have Sweet sixteen, we still the
nit the second round of the NCAA Tournament. The stuff
on that website is so good that, as a if
you're betting this sport, I don't know how that's not
your home base. I've said that since I had you
on earlier this year. Jim Root came on and guest
hosted the show, and I think you guys have done.
Speaker 2: A phenomenal job.
Speaker 1: And I'll hype that up for you as long as
you guys are as long as it exists also the
discord is I need to be in the discord more.
There's a lot of good info in that discord as well.
Speaker 3: The off season, the off season is a good time
to be in there, especially is we like to talk
when there's not much.
Speaker 1: Going on, and you know, we've got another twenty six
minutes on this show. Both of us will be giving
out at least one best bet here on the show,
and we'll lock it in for the parlay.
Speaker 2: I want to go back.
Speaker 1: So okay, I think we can hit these two as
a pair as well. If Miami, Ohio is not today's
high point, who is it? Is it cal Baptist or
is it Northern Iowa. I haven't bet either of those yet,
but in my head, one of those two could be
the double digit team, a double digit underdog that wins
out right today. So your pick, you can, you know,
you can talk about both of them. You can pick
what one you want to talk about. Is there a
big upset like high point on the card today.
Speaker 3: I don't think there is one, but my most likely
would be Northern Iowa. And that's just because you know, style,
In my opinion of these styles make fights, and the
Northern Iowa's style has the potential to sort of negate
what Saint John's wants to do to make this game
really slow, to keep them off the free throw line
and off the offensive glass. Now, for that to work,
they actually have to be able to keep them off
the glass, and that just might not be possible. They
do not have someone with the physicality of Zubi edgefor frankly,
quite literally, no one does. And Saint John's is gonna
have to make shots here because Northern Iowa, you know,
forces a lot of shot making. I think Saint John's.
I don't love Saint John's, but I think they're underrated
as a shot making team. Ozaiah Sellers is a very
good shot maker, join sant and Ian Jackson are inconsistent.
When they play well, they're very good shot makers. And
if Saint Johns shoots thirty five percent from three here,
like they'll win by fifteen. And so I don't really
want to pick a game where it's like, oh, well,
the underdog's only gonna win if the favorite plays bad
versus the underdog's gonna win because they're a really good
team to beat that that squad, and I just don't
think that's the case here.
Speaker 1: So I've had the Uh, I've been at like three
Saint John's games to syear probably probably the team I've
seen the most of any team that I've seen in person,
And uh, what you talk about their ability to make shots?
Speaker 2: To me, it's direct.
Speaker 1: It's a direct like when they play good defense and
they're playing high pressure defense and they're and they're forcing
turnovers and the defense is playing well, it feels like
that they hit shots off of that. Like so for example,
I'll go back to the Yukon game at Madison Square
Garden where like they made a lot of jumpers in
that game, but it was also like I felt like
it was a direct There was like almost like a
direct correlation between them playing pressure defense either getting a
getting a big rebound because they forced and missed, or
getting a turnover and then hitting the shot off of
the turnover. So I guess that would worry me a
little bit if I if I'm on Northern Iowa, because
you got to ask yourself as it has Northern Iowa
played against the team that can pressure them like Saint
John's can pressure them.
Speaker 3: Here, No, absolutely, it's the Missouri Valley that no one
plays like Saint John's in the Missouri Valley.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so that was so you know, just the you know,
I'll give you so the games. I went and saw
Saint John's.
Speaker 1: I was at Carnaseca when they played De Paul and
you know that that was a game where they were
a big favorite, but they really they really didn't like pressure,
like they didn't probably play their best defensive game and
they didn't cover. But like in the bigger games, the
Yukon game at the Garden, I also saw Saint John's
play Villanova at in Philly.
Speaker 2: Those were two sort of big.
Speaker 1: Time, big games, and in both games the defense directly
fueled the offense. And then you had teams like Villanova
wasn't really ready for that kind of ball pressure and
they struggled and Yukon figured it out. But we've now
seen Yukon twice not could not be able to handle
their relentless defensive pressure. And that's kind of my concern
as someone that did sort of saw the pairings and said.
Speaker 2: Ooh, that's it.
Speaker 1: Northern I was interesting right there because they're a super
veteran team. They're going to play a slower game. They
weren't at full strength all year, so maybe like they're
better than we think they are. But then I'm just like,
if they if Saint John's is at an eleven out
of ten on the defensive pech Pressure Meter, maybe they
have trouble. So that's a I've kind of maybe pumped
the brakes a little bit on the Nora and I
with love.
Speaker 3: So Saint Johnson's played one other mid major team whose
strength is denying free throws and denying second chances. That
was Harvard. Saint john still grabbed forty seven percent of
their misses and that's the most Harvard's allowed all year
by far. So obviously Northern I was a bit better
than Harvard, but it's the same concept of a team
that is trying to keep you off the glass and
keep you up the free throw line. Like you can
have a strategy in a style and a way to play,
sometimes it just doesn't work because the opponent's too good
at what they do. And I think that might be
the case here.
Speaker 1: All right, we are going to so we're gonna give
a pick out right here. Rob Vino must be through security.
He has texted me and he's given me his leg
for the parlay, and so I have a I definitely
have an opinion on this. This game definitely one of
these teams. But we'll break down his play, so his
play is gonna be the over in Furman in Yukon,
he likes over one thirty six and a half. Talk
to him, just I'll give you the floor kick us
off on this one. Furman Yukon. Do you agree or
disagree with points in this game?
Speaker 3: This is a game I don't have a really strong
opinion on just because I really like Furman and I
also think they don't have a chance here. Uh. The
good news for Furman is they're not playing an extreme
pressure defense and they turn it over way too much.
Yukon is nothing to pressure them all that much. The
bad news here is Furman used their size, their length,
and their interior finishing to win the Sokon. They hit threes,
which they're gonna have to do here, but they won
because the interior Yukon is a dominant rim defense, and
I don't think Furman has any chance to score at
the rim here, so the jumpers are gonna have to fall.
And they've been inconsistent from three all year.
Speaker 1: So we had a couple of shows leading in to
this election show We came on air early before the
bracket was out, so I think we went on air
about five forty five, and I really wanted Sianna to
draw Yukon. I felt like Sianna should have been a
fifteen seed, not a sixteen. I picked Yukon as the
as the team I would have wanted to play. I
got a lot of heat from some Yukon fans for that.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: If Sianna played like they did yesterday, I might have
beat this Yukon team. Point is, I really don't like
Yukon at all. I'm only looking for ways to play
against them. And yet here I couldn't bring myself to
take twenty with Furman because, ah, you know, the SoCon
was historically bad this year.
Speaker 2: I guess Furman.
Speaker 1: You know, Rob and I had had talked about Furman
a couple of different times in the context of like
the SoCon tournament, and I know Rob really did sort.
Speaker 2: Of like Furman in that tournament. They ended up eventually
winning it.
Speaker 3: I picked them. I got that one, right, Yeah.
Speaker 1: Good, yeah, I mean, listen, they think about how far
Furman has come from the field of sixty eight opener
when they couldn't even dribble the ball past half court
against I think it was high point.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well the right point guard in his first ever
game against the top five turnover defense in the country.
Speaker 1: But yeah, but I'm just saying like they've cleaned up
the turnovers for the most part. But if those issues
are ever going to get exposed, it's probably going to
be by a team like Yukon, where you're really stepping
up in class, and I just don't know that Furman
has the ability to step up in class. So even
even with all the Yukon, even with me disliking them
as much as I do, I couldn't find my way
on to Furman plus twenty and a half here.
Speaker 3: I was very happy that I won Furman to win
the Sokon. That was a lot of fun and I'm
really happy. At the same time, I can acknowledge they
kind of got lucky because they shot fifty two, forty five,
and thirty nine percent from three of those games, and
they're not a great three point shooting team. They're gonna
have to be forty five percent to have a chance
to win here, and I think they probably need to
hit forty for this ever to hit, which I mean
let's absolutely do.
Speaker 2: So do you think there's at all?
Speaker 1: Do you think this is like Danny Hurley wants to
run it up because he's a little pissed about how
last weekend went?
Speaker 2: Is there any of that in this game?
Speaker 3: Or well, let's see. Uh, when they were huge favorites
as one seeds last year they beat two years ago,
they beat Stetson by thirty nine, and then they beat
Iona by twenty four in the first round. But then
I remember that game that was Rick.
Speaker 1: Now, that was an Albany, New York Matt they're all
in New York. They I actually that year I went
to the Yukon Saint Mary's game. I went to the
Saturday games, but I had a lot of buddies there,
and I remember they were like they did sort of
make a point to like trash I own in the
second half of that game, like they kind of ran
it up.
Speaker 3: I mean, it was about tied at halftime, and that
game did go over pretty easily. But also Rick Patino
had an NBA starting backcourt, so that's gonna make it pretty.
And then also the Stetson game when they were the
one seed, that one also flew over one hundred and
forty three points in that one for a slow Yukon team.
They played sixty nine possessions. So yeah, I can see
a world where if this is a blowout, it might
be a run up to score situation.
Speaker 1: Well, Rob Vino is a totals guru, and if he
likes he's I mean, he's having a great season, much
of which is fueled by his ability to hit totals.
And if he likes firm and Ukon over one thirty
six and a half, I'm certainly not gonna argue with him.
So that is parlay leg number one. I'll do you
know what your best bet is. If you do, I'll
let you go to that game right now.
Speaker 3: Sure, it's a bit of a big favorite spread, which
was not the greatest thing yesterday, but some did hit.
I was on Illinois. That one was really easy. I
think Virginia destroys Right State today. Virginia is huge in
Right State is the type of team that is a
very good team against fellow mid majors, Horizon League teams,
teams in their general stratosphere, and just teams that cannot
play up because they're very small and they don't shoot
threes and they allow a ton of twos. That's just
a really bad strategy because if you're playing rim versus
rim against one of the tallest teams in the country
that's the second best shot blocking team in the entire sport.
That's just like a matchup of strength versus strength battle
that you cannot play. Wright State has no one taller
than six foot seven or heavier than two hundred and
twenty five pounds in their rotation. They're a ninety fifth
percentile rim rate team, which means they get to the
rim more than all but five percent of teams. Virginia
is gonna block twenty shots in this game. They should
have gotten whooped by Cal when they played Cal, but
Cal shot twenty five percent from three point line, and
then they did play Butler. Butler shot only thirty three
percent from deep, but absolutely dominated them because they shot
twenty three more free throws in a game where both
teams got to the rim a million times. I think
that Virginia is gonna get to the line a lot.
They're gonna get to the brim a lot, and Wright
State's gonna have to be a dominant three point shooting
team like most mid major teams. The problem is, right
State is two hundred and ninety fourth in percentage of
their points from three. They don't shoot threes, So I
don't see a world in which they can compete with
Virginia because it's not threes versus threes, it's twos versus
twos with the second best shot bucking team in the
entire country.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you here, good friend of the show,
my buddy Aaron Kidd, He's he's often times in the
comments during the show on this show, Virginia season ticket holder,
he's my first call anytime we talk Virginia basketball. He's
I think he was at every single game in Charlottesville
this year and typically is. And he said, this is
a dream matchup for them, like an absolute dream matchup,
could not have asked for.
Speaker 2: Like he's he actually want to take it one step further.
Speaker 1: He said he thinks if they played Tennessee in the
next round, that's a dream matchup for them as well.
Speaker 2: So he was very happy with the draw.
Speaker 1: And we compared numbers, and I'm at this is one
that I'm thinking long and hard about. You know, personally,
I've had I struggled to lay like like massive numbers
in these early games for whatever reason, I don't know,
I just gravitate toward dogs more or it ends up
being a pass for me. But I'm at like twenty
one and a half here, I think on my number,
I'm going off memory, but it was over twenty and
this is still sitting out there seventeen and a half
like we were eighteen. I think we can use eighteen
or seventeen and a half for the parlay. I'm looking
at the board right now, I see most of the
seventeen and a halfs are juiced. There's eighteen minus one ten.
Are you are you surprised this one hasn't budged from
where it opened.
Speaker 2: I'm a little bit surprised.
Speaker 3: Well, it also opened two points off ken coom right,
So yeah, at least that started there, And like this
happens sometimes. Like my favorite bet the first round of
last year for a very similar reason was Arizona against
the spread against Akron, and that one was a really
easy cover. And I was sitting there all week being like,
why is this not moving like crazy? And then it
was really easy, So I'm not really too worried about that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it makes total sense.
Speaker 1: They should deny Wright state the rim and it should
just be you know, this Virginia team, I got to
say there if it's not this year. And this is
getting a little bit off topic, but the Ryan Odom
with Griff Aldrick as his like business manager, like like
atil manager co whatever he's doing running a fortune five
hundred company is so genius. Like Virginia is gonna win
one of these things probably within the next couple of years.
Speaker 3: Put it this way, Virginian NC State both started from
complete scratch in a pretty average acc with about the
same budget to get there. Actually, I bet you NC
State spent more on their roster and Virginia just ended
up being so much better than NC State. And like
you can, I think Will Wade is still a very
good coach. I just think that explains how awesome this
Virginia program is going to be moving forward.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I I mean, listen, I can't disagree with my
buddy Aaron he I think, because here's the thing, Like,
even if Miami in Ohio shocks the world today, if
you will, you know, does it, like, I think Virginia
would take that right, they'd be pretty thrilled with that.
So either they're going to get Tennessee who I'll definitely
like Virginia probably in that game or they're going to
be a double digit favorite. So yeah, I can see
why the Virginia faithful were happy with the draw, and yeah,
this feels like it could be a pretty big blowout.
Speaker 2: So I'm with you.
Speaker 1: That is one that was on my long list for
today that I will be definitely, you know, giving some
for a potential early bet. I will take your big favorite, though,
and raise you a bigger favorite for the parlay. I'm
gonna go Iowa State here in the parlay. I think
they're gonna absolutely trash Tennessee State in this game.
Speaker 2: It's up to twenty four and a half most places.
Speaker 1: For the sake of the parlay, I'm just gonna put
twenty four and I'll just add a little bit of juice.
I'm actually I'll do it twice. So we're gonna go
seventeen and a half in the parlay with Virginia. We're
gonna go twenty four with Iowa State. I'll just attach
minus one twenty juice to both of those. Here's the thing,
and I see you Joe in the chat. He says
Tennessee State is pretty solid. Yeah, Tennessee State is very solid.
In the context of the Ohio Valley Conference where I listen,
I was way high on Tennessee State this year in
that league.
Speaker 2: I love Nolan Smith, I thought, you know, especially.
Speaker 1: When I saw Tennessee Martin sort of emerge as the
top team for a couple of for probably over a month,
I was like, man, Tennessee State is such better team
than Tennessee Martin. I love the way they play, I
love how they He kind of is, like I think
I've heard him hit described as he sort of went
against the analytics and he just put a bunch of
ballers out there that just like get up and down
and just play ball.
Speaker 2: And that's great in that league, but that's not gonna
work against Iowa State.
Speaker 1: And one thing I'll know, and you can comment on
this as well, I feel like some of the Big
twelve teams at the top are getting a little bit
disrespected because they got lost in the shuffle of the
Big Twelve Gauntlet, meaning like we're gonna sit here and
talk about Arizona like they're just gonna easily win this
whole tournament, but yet we're not gonna give Houston any love.
Speaker 2: Iowa State. I feel like even Texas Tech to an extent,
and all of those teams are very dangerous.
Speaker 1: And I just had a conversation before I got on
the show that I think Iowa State is a very
dangerous team, far more so than I gave them credit
for myself a couple of weeks ago. And I think
this is a forty point win. Thirty or forty point
win for I was date so agreed, disagree. Iowa State,
Tennessee Tennessee State this afternoon.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Iowa State loves to run up the
score against bad teams because they forced so many turnovers,
get so many offensive rebounds, and get to the rim
so much. It makes it very easy to the point
where they did play an OBC team this year. They
did not cover against Eastern Illinois twenty five point win.
They shot seventeen percent from three. If they shoot thirty
percent from three, they win that game by forty. And
I think it's the same deal here. Tennessee State actually
gained a lot of power ranking juice in their last
four games of the year. They were at two sixty
one six games ago, and Ken Palm another one eighty seven,
so very quick math. That's fifty four spots gained in
their last six games of the year. So then I
go to the three point line. How did they shoot
well in three of those games forty two percent, forty
one percent, sixty two percent, and that's going to help.
So I think you're probably getting an extra three to
four points on the spread because Tennessee State just completely
whooped their last six oppontments and again OBC, so I
think that probably a little value here.
Speaker 2: On the number.
Speaker 1: How do you gain that many points in kemp on
playing six OVC opponents?
Speaker 3: They played the better team. So they beat SIU E
by twenty seven, They beat Tennessee Martin back to back
games by twenty five and thirteen, and then they beat
Morehead by thirty six because they shot or twenty six
because they shot sixty two from thirty Pretty crazy.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that is that is crazy. And listen, I mean
they're a great story. They've had a great season. This
is another one where I just think they drew a
really really bad first round matchup for the for the
way that they for the way that they play, it's
just and again, yeah, like Iowa State and we can
even I guess we'll parlay it into the into talking
about this game because the chat wants to know. They've
been asking the whole show about Akron, Texas Tech, Texas Tech,
Iowa State, Houston are the three I'm referring to. I
guess you could throw Kansas in the mid but I
still think Kansas gets enough love, like just that they
don't deserve a time, so I'm gonna leave them out.
Iowa State, Houston, and Texas Tech I think could be
final four our teams. And I think we just kind
of stopped collectively stopped putting them in the final four
as of a couple of weeks ago and now and
I and I was guilty of that as well.
Speaker 2: And now I'm looking at the tournament. I'm looking at
the bracket.
Speaker 1: I'm looking at what Houston did to Idaho last night
and thinking like, are are they any really worse than Arizona?
They feel like almost on par with Arizona. Yet we've
got Arizona placed in the in the final. But when
I say we, I mean just like a lot of
people that come on and talk about these these games
on a daily basis.
Speaker 3: Well, Arizona beat Iowa State twice, they beat Houston twice. Uh,
they only lost to Texas Tech by three and JT.
Toppin played. Uh So, no, I do not think they're
as good as Arizona.
Speaker 1: Okay, No, that's a really That's that's why I brought
it up, because I just I, you know, there there's
a point in this season, go back to December and
going into January where I think a lot of people
would have had some of those teams interchangeable Houston, Arizona,
Iowa State, maybe even Kansas at that there was a
point in time where Kansas had a couple of back
to back wins where they vaulted themselves back into the
big time discussion. And so no, that's a really good point. Now, I'll,
like I said, I got off topic a little bit there.
I'll bring it back into the context of you know,
getting one more game breakdown in for the show. Texas
Tech sitting there at seven, it keeps getting pushed back
to seven and a half, going back to seven. Akron's
a very interesting team because it's almost like they're they're
due to win one of these games, and they've kind
of like there is a little bit of tournament experience
they go every year. Now they find themselves in a
game where they're a single digit dog, seems like I
guess winnable from that from that standpoint, But then I'm
also like Texas Tech have are we sleeping on them
a little bit just because they don't have toppen because
that line feels a.
Speaker 3: Little short Stylistically, this is the closest you're going to
get to Wisconsin high Point in the sense that both
teams shoot a lot of threes, and high Point won
that game because down the stretch they made all their
threes in Wisconsin didn't. If that happens, Akron absolutely can
win the game. The difference here, I think is that
Grant mcchaslym is a way better coach than great Guard.
I love Grant mccasly and I think he's a top
five coach in the country. I cannot envision him losing
in the first round. It can be close, but because
Akron is so small, Texas Tech can get away with
being so small. Because Texas Tech is small, they don't
have to play loop bemgoie big minutes because they don't
have a big man to contend with. And at the
end of the day, guards win March Madness games, and
Texas Tech has Christian Anderson. And as much as Tabari
Johnson is good, Christian Anderson's way better. And I don't
think Acron can do enough defensively to slow down Christian Anderson.
You look at those games that Texas Tech lost. TCU
and Iowa State especially are two teams that blow up
every ball screen and get the ball out of Christian
in Anderson's hands. Acron cannot do that. So Anderson's gonna
get his shots here, and I just don't think that
Akron is going to get enough stops to win this game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just a I think that's a really good
point in general.
Speaker 1: Just how many like like TCUs a team all year
that has come up on this show and it's like
those guards are just in your shorts defensively, they are
gonna they make life so difficult for teams that want
to play through their guards, Like even even made life
very difficult for Ohio State yesterday. So that's yeah, I
think that that's probably I guess, like I lean toward
Texas Tech covering this game, and it's it's likely that that,
you know, right, unless Akron just goes absolutely bonkers from three,
it's hard to believe that Texas Tech doesn't win by
double digits, so I guess I'll sign off on a
Texas Tech lean minus seven.
Speaker 2: It's still seven someplaces.
Speaker 3: I think that's more likely than not what's going to happen.
But again, a lot of three point variants in this game.
Maybe if one team is up, if Acron's up at halftime,
I would take Texas Tech. If Texas Tech is up
fifteen to twenty at halftime, I would consider taking Acron.
Speaker 1: Yeah, can always bet these in play, just so many
friend donners. Yeah, that's one where that makes a lot
of sense. If Texas Tech falls behind a little bit
early to the point where you can just get them
in game to win the game, that's probably very good
in play that.
Speaker 3: And I mean think about Akron, like the way they
play it showed out in their MAC final against Toledo.
They were on twelve in the second half and then
then they hit all their threes and Toledo started missing
at the end of the day. There's a lot of
up and down with Akron games because they play so
fast they shoot and allow so many threes.
Speaker 2: Could even apply to the total too.
Speaker 1: I mean, if you get slow shooting out of the gate,
from both of those, like, there's probably a barrage coming
at at some point.
Speaker 3: Also, and this is just anecdotal, Texas Tech's offense is
always better in the first half. I don't know why,
but they're always better the first half. If there's a million,
if there's like ninety two points in the first half,
pick them under at a second.
Speaker 1: Good stuff, good stuff, Titan CT says Matt, nice to
see you again. Not sure what the show schedule is
next week, but we may we may have Matt back.
Speaker 2: We'll see. I got to see what the show schedule
is next week. I know this weekend, I.
Speaker 1: Believe we're doing Last Call, so I'll just be on
the Last Call show with Kelly in Vegas.
Speaker 2: Monday.
Speaker 1: There's no games, so no show, so maybe we'll be
back on Tuesday. I gotta get the exact schedule, but
we'd love to have Matt back. He always kills it
when he shows up here. As we sign off, yes,
we do have a three team or today Rob Dino
Furman Yukon over thirty six and a half. Matt is
gonna go Virginia minus seventeen and a half and I've
attached minus one twenty Juice we're parlaying, so it's still
gonna be plus money, does it matter. And then Iowa
State is my play minus twenty four. I've attached minus
one twenty juice to that as well for the parlay,
so obviously shop around. Those numbers are out there, like
seventeen and a half for Virginia. Minus one twenty is like, actually,
what's being offered at a lot of places, get yourself
twenty four for I would that I think that moved
a little bit off the opener. That is the three
teamer that's gonna get this parlay going. We are still
we're still chasing about fourteen parlay units on the year,
which again that's probably like a you know, minus one ten,
minus one twenty, minus one twenty will probably be close
to like six to one. We just got to rattle
off a couple of these and we're right back in
the mix. So enjoy the weekend everyone. Hope you guys
cash all your tickets. It is the second best day
of the year. Yesterday was the best, Today's the second best.
So have a great, great weekend everyone. I'll see you
on last call. Big shout out again for Matt for
joining check him out on basket under review and on
his Twitter and have a great day.
Speaker 2: Everyone will see you guys tomorrow