Speaker 1: The Fed will announce on Wednesday if they will cut
Speaker 1: interest rates and could we hear some signals about quantitative
Speaker 1: viasaing and they start the money printer again. As crypto
Speaker 1: and the stock market and risk assets continue to struggle
Speaker 1: with massive sell offs, I want to share what different
Speaker 1: analysts are saying, as well as the rising global liquidity
Speaker 1: and the impact that could have on crypto in the
Speaker 1: latter half of March. I'll give it to details. Let's
Speaker 1: get into it. Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcasts.
Speaker 1: You're home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host,
Speaker 1: Tony Edward on your weight in. Please hit that subscribe
Speaker 1: button as well as the thumbsup button and leave a
Speaker 1: common below. If you're listening on a podcast platform such
Speaker 1: as Spotify or Apple, please leave a five star rating
Speaker 1: and review. Folks, Bitcoin and the crypto market continue to
Speaker 1: consolidate or chop sideways. Nothing happening here. We saw, obviously,
Speaker 1: Bitcoin bounce off the lows of seventy six thousand dollars.
Speaker 1: It's currently over eighty three thousand. But right now it's
Speaker 1: doing a whole bunch of sideways action. And of course
Speaker 1: all coins are waiting for Bitcoin's directional move because the
Speaker 1: market follows bitcoin. However, as I've been sharing with you guys,
Speaker 1: the macro is setting up nicely overall, with the DXY
Speaker 1: and the Dollar currency index crashing, so that's very good
Speaker 1: for risk assets. There is a lag and of course
Speaker 1: global liquidity continues to surge. Guys. This is very good.
Speaker 1: And we know the system we live in is the
Speaker 1: fiat currency system where they have to print and this
Speaker 1: is not just US, but central banks globally. So the
Speaker 1: fundamental principle of why assets rise is due to global liquidity. Now,
Speaker 1: when you get to the specifics in the short term
Speaker 1: and mid term, it's based on company earnings, right or
Speaker 1: adoption and all these different factors that are usually out
Speaker 1: there in the mainstream. What's not in the mainstream is
Speaker 1: global liquidity, and that the more money they keep printing
Speaker 1: in that the basement of the currency, that is what
Speaker 1: drives asset prices for cryptostocks, real estate and much more. So,
Speaker 1: all of these things are moving in the right direction
Speaker 1: for US. And this week we're going to hear from
Speaker 1: Jerome Powell in the FED on Wednesday, we will hear
Speaker 1: if they're going to cut rates now I think there's
Speaker 1: a high chance they do, given the market pullback. We've
Speaker 1: been seeing huge sell offs right, and then you have
Speaker 1: all the things that are going on with tariffs and
Speaker 1: the tariff wars on and off and all that jazz.
Speaker 1: But we also may get some signals from the Fed
Speaker 1: that they're pausing quantitative tightening because they've paused rates. They
Speaker 1: started cutting rates last year and they're still on the
Speaker 1: cutting rates track, but quantitative tightening itself, they haven't officially said, hey,
Speaker 1: this is ended, and we know once that's ended, it's
Speaker 1: only a matter of time for them to go back
Speaker 1: to quantitative easing and printing money. You may say, well,
Speaker 1: how do you know that, Tony, Well, look at this.
Speaker 1: The government. Congress passed a bill to avert the government shutdown,
Speaker 1: and of course they're going to spend trillions of dollars.
Speaker 1: I think it's like six point seventy five trillion, taking
Speaker 1: the government till September where they will have to do
Speaker 1: another bill. So they have to keep doing this, and
Speaker 1: the more they raise the debt ceiling, the more they
Speaker 1: have to spend, and then more money they have to
Speaker 1: print to service the debt. This is the same cycle
Speaker 1: over and over, and that's why no Republican or Democrat
Speaker 1: can stop this unless they change the entire system. Now,
Speaker 1: I know some of you're gonna say, Tony, but what
Speaker 1: about Doge. They've been cutting the over spending and all
Speaker 1: the frivolous spending as well. Well, that's just a drop
Speaker 1: in the bucket. Here. Bob Elliott, who's the chief investment
Speaker 1: officer at Unlimited Funds, he tweeted out the US federal
Speaker 1: expenditures chart and showing that the spending is continuing. Guys,
Speaker 1: it's on track and it is expected to continue to
Speaker 1: go up. And even though Elon and the folks that
Speaker 1: those are trying to cut some of these things it
Speaker 1: once against to drop in the bucket. So Bob says,
Speaker 1: still no signs of a slowdown in total expenditures, despite
Speaker 1: some shifts in underlying composition away from us AID toward FEMA, etc.
Speaker 1: So this is the status quo. And you may say, Tony,
Speaker 1: this is a crypto podcast, and show why are you
Speaker 1: talking about macro factors, because all of these assets are
Speaker 1: correlated to the macro. And when I learned this, it's
Speaker 1: when I started to understand the markets better and not
Speaker 1: moving by my emotions, right, We're all programmed to go
Speaker 1: with mainstream media and sensationalized headlines and all these things.
Speaker 1: But once you understand what's happening behind the scenes, what
Speaker 1: is the root of all these things that drives markets.
Speaker 1: It's this right here. They keep printing, and that of
Speaker 1: course raises the asset prices, right because the denomination is
Speaker 1: the Fiat currencies. So the triggers or the catalysts for
Speaker 1: keep printing is the governments have to service their debt.
Speaker 1: And this is glows for every central bank around the globe.
Speaker 1: And we saw China has already started stimulus, guys, and
Speaker 1: that's why global liquidity he's been surging in addition to
Speaker 1: other central banks. But of course we primarily look at
Speaker 1: the superpowers because they have bigger economies. They have they
Speaker 1: spend a lot more so China and the United States,
Speaker 1: Russia and support so Europe as well. So guys, I
Speaker 1: just see the same story at all over and over. Now,
Speaker 1: some people may say, why isn't it pumping right away?
Speaker 1: Based on the data, there's a bit of a lag
Speaker 1: as that liquidity makes its way through the economy and market.
Speaker 1: So this is just the data folks, right, So I
Speaker 1: want to make sure that you understand. You can literally
Speaker 1: go to the FED, the Saint Louis FED website and
Speaker 1: look at the M two money supply and the M
Speaker 1: one money supply, and guys, for those of you listening
Speaker 1: in the podcast, it is on the rise. It continues
Speaker 1: to trend higher and higher and higher since like the
Speaker 1: beginning of twenty twenty four. For the most part, it's
Speaker 1: been on the rise, and guys' asset prices will follow it.
Speaker 1: And once again, it's not just the United States, it's
Speaker 1: the central banks globally, So you can go look at
Speaker 1: this data. I always point you, guys, to the facts,
Speaker 1: the data, the charts, and much more, not our emotions.
Speaker 1: You're going to see a lot of headlines. You saw
Speaker 1: people who pay solo over tariff fears, and I often
Speaker 1: tell people like, why are you panic selling? That is
Speaker 1: an opportunity to buy. That is when you buy, just
Speaker 1: go follow investors like Warren Buffett and others. Right, there's
Speaker 1: a saying time in the markets is greater than trying
Speaker 1: to time the market. So just taking a position and
Speaker 1: sometimes even just letting it sit for years, obviously you
Speaker 1: should pay attention right and understand what's happening here. But
Speaker 1: even simply doing that is better than panic selling and
Speaker 1: moving by your emotions. That's the wrong way. So you
Speaker 1: have to unlearn the lottery mindset. Well, I play the
Speaker 1: numbers and next week I get the numbers. No, or
Speaker 1: I go to the casino and I gamble. I played
Speaker 1: the slot and I get the outcome right away. That's
Speaker 1: not investing. That's gambling. Investing requires a lot of patience,
Speaker 1: requires you learning what the hell is happening in the
Speaker 1: economy and the markets. You don't have to be a
Speaker 1: Wall Street expert, but you have to have a baseline
Speaker 1: knowledge at least right to navigate the waters. And that's
Speaker 1: what I'm trying to share here with you guys. And
Speaker 1: I've been on that journey, so that's why I'm trying
Speaker 1: to share it with you. It really unlike a lot
Speaker 1: of things for me to even bypass political narratives. Right
Speaker 1: with the political show you often see with the government
Speaker 1: shut down, Democrats are Republicans fight each other. It's all
Speaker 1: a show. What matters is the bill that they put
Speaker 1: out and that they both know they have to spend,
Speaker 1: and the money printer to FED and the treasure you're
Speaker 1: all going to work together to get this done. And guys,
Speaker 1: not to get too political, but that bill they pass
Speaker 1: was a Democrat bill from last year, and the Republicans
Speaker 1: were against it, and they did add some tweaks to it.
Speaker 1: Don't get me wrong. What's the Democrat bill from last year?
Speaker 1: So you see, there's a political show a theater that happens,
Speaker 1: and everybody gets caught up in their own political narratives
Speaker 1: and they fight each other, but they're distracted from the
Speaker 1: fundamental issue here, and that is the money. Printer has
Speaker 1: to keep going. They have to keep funding the government.
Speaker 1: They got to keep raising the debt ceiling. So I
Speaker 1: hope you understand what's happening here. And I'm not trying
Speaker 1: to say it's not important to vote, or it's not
Speaker 1: important to understand what different parties are doing, but there's
Speaker 1: certain things they agree on and they kind of put
Speaker 1: on a show that they're fighting each other or not.
Speaker 1: They both do the same thing. Go back in history
Speaker 1: and just watch it play out over and over right
Speaker 1: when you don't get blinded by the narratives, and you
Speaker 1: just see what bill was passed, what the Fed is doing,
Speaker 1: what the Treasure is doing. It tells you the story,
Speaker 1: but you have to go past the mainstream media and
Speaker 1: do your research. Right, Not too many people are going
Speaker 1: to the Saint Louis Fed website to look at the
Speaker 1: M two money supply, many of just living their lives
Speaker 1: going about, Oh you see these democrats, Ah, these Republicans.
Speaker 1: They get caught up too much in the narratives instead
Speaker 1: of looking at the data. And I hope you see
Speaker 1: where I'm trying to point you here, because this is
Speaker 1: what drives asset prices. Obviously, like I said, there's another
Speaker 1: layer to it with earnings for companies and adoption and
Speaker 1: all these things. Right, so don't get me wrong, but
Speaker 1: the main catalyst is this, guys. So I'm bullish. I
Speaker 1: like what I'm seeing from the macro despite the corrections
Speaker 1: we're seeing here. And you know I shared with you
Speaker 1: guys the other day. The stock market, the NASDAC, the
Speaker 1: Dow Jones, the SMP five hundred are seen a little
Speaker 1: bit of a bounds, but I'm not sure if we're
Speaker 1: completely out of the woods yet. And maybe this week
Speaker 1: with the FOMC meeting, we get some positive news and
Speaker 1: the markets start ripping, and guess what people are going
Speaker 1: to forget about this corrective phase. It's the same thing
Speaker 1: over and over and over. And as I've said in
Speaker 1: the past episodes, in my recent newsletter, the different signals
Speaker 1: that have triggered the top of the crypto market are
Speaker 1: not there. So I look at all these pieces of
Speaker 1: information together, not just one, to form my thesis. So
Speaker 1: fingers crossed, guys, we get some good news this week.
Speaker 1: But I like to remind you, guys, anytime there's an
Speaker 1: FMC meeting in a respective week, it's extremely volatile, so
Speaker 1: you're gonna see swings up and down, so don't be
Speaker 1: surprised by that. And you can't really judge the market
Speaker 1: this week, honestly, right, how many times have I told you,
Speaker 1: guys that you can't judge it. You have to wait
Speaker 1: maybe the following week, let the dust settle, and hopefully
Speaker 1: we get some very good news here. Given that the
Speaker 1: stock market, crypto everything has been selling off, consumer confidence,
Speaker 1: all these things are down, so we'll have to wait
Speaker 1: and see, guys. And here's a funny one that may
Speaker 1: be good for us. Jim Kramer, the mad money man himself,
Speaker 1: says the market is preparing to give up some gains,
Speaker 1: so he's bearish and as you all know, inverse Kramer, right,
Speaker 1: you do the opposite of Kramer. So maybe we'll be
Speaker 1: back this week, if not this week, the following week,
Speaker 1: where you know, the markets will start to climb out
Speaker 1: of this hole that we're in. So let's see you, guys.
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Speaker 1: now we've been talking a lot about the big news
Speaker 1: that happened last week where Senator Haggerty's stable Coin Build
Speaker 1: a Genius Act made it out of the Senate Banking
Speaker 1: gop OR Committee, I should say, and it's now going
Speaker 1: to make its way to the Senate floor to be
Speaker 1: voted on. And I said in last week's podcast there
Speaker 1: are many layers to this onion to peel back here.
Speaker 1: And that is one stable coin legislation, right, giving clarity
Speaker 1: to the market, more people being able to launch stable coins,
Speaker 1: and make sure you regulate the players so they don't
Speaker 1: scam anybody or do anything bad, because bad actors appear
Speaker 1: in every market. Of course. Two the geopolitical aspect, where
Speaker 1: US dollar stable coins will help the US dollar maintain
Speaker 1: its will reserve currency status. And I said that both
Speaker 1: Democrats and Republicans are going to be on board here
Speaker 1: because these are the things they can they usually agree on, right,
Speaker 1: the power of the United States, the money printing as
Speaker 1: mentioned earlier, so those are things usually don't see fights about.
Speaker 1: So Democrats supported the Genius Act from Senator Haggerty to
Speaker 1: get this done. And Senator Tim Scott he posted a
Speaker 1: video today he's the chairman of the Banking GOP where
Speaker 1: he talked about stable coins and crypto. Let me play
Speaker 1: the clip for you.
Speaker 2: Crypto currency is here to stay. We want to innovate
Speaker 2: in America before we overregulate it. We had a framework
Speaker 2: put in place led by Senator Haggarty, Senator Lummus myself
Speaker 2: making sure that the stable coins to understand stable coins.
Speaker 2: It's kind of like a traveler's check on the blockchain.
Speaker 2: It gives people more access to the resources, and it
Speaker 2: will reduce the cost of doing business in America a
Speaker 2: leap in the right direction. We will be the country
Speaker 2: that leads in the crypto currency footprint for generations to come.
Speaker 2: It's another promise made by President Trump on the campaign troll,
Speaker 2: another promise that we're keeping in our legislative agenda and priorities.
Speaker 2: The American people can rest assured that democratization is here
Speaker 2: to stay, and it will get better and better as
Speaker 2: we move these bills to the President's desk to be
Speaker 2: signed into law. It was a really good week.
Speaker 1: So you heard what he had to say. He started
Speaker 1: out by saying, crypto is here to stay. This is
Speaker 1: a congressman who heads up the Banking Committee. Guys, the
Speaker 1: Senate Banking Committee, Please recognize what's happening here. This is
Speaker 1: a paradigm shift. And we have tradfy wall streets here, Blackrock,
Speaker 1: all these guys, and you have the government on board.
Speaker 1: So if you are feeling bearish and dismayed by the
Speaker 1: price action, you're not looking at the bigger picture. You're
Speaker 1: just emotional about the price. And I don't say that
Speaker 1: to put you down or make you feel bad, but
Speaker 1: to wake up to move beyond the price price is important. Guy.
Speaker 1: I've said many times I have financial goals. I want
Speaker 1: certain price points for the crypto I hold, and I
Speaker 1: want to take profits, and I'm going to do that
Speaker 1: this year. But I got to be patient, right and
Speaker 1: I have to look at the bigger picture of what's happening,
Speaker 1: because there is a lead up to the higher prices,
Speaker 1: things like legislation, things like getting all these people on board,
Speaker 1: which fosters innovation and gives the green light for more
Speaker 1: capital to come in. When you have the President's pro crypto,
Speaker 1: Congress is pro crypto, the SEC dropping crypto cases, and
Speaker 1: much more. So I hope you understand what's happening here.
Speaker 1: So guys, big statements from Senator Tim Scott here, and
Speaker 1: I'm so bullish on what crypto is going to look
Speaker 1: like as we progress into the year. Now. US Representative
Speaker 1: Byron Donald's he's of course out of Florida, and I
Speaker 1: had him on the podcast years ago. I think it
Speaker 1: was twenty twenty. I from not mistaken. He has introduced
Speaker 1: a bill to cement President Trump's strategic Bitcoin reserve into law,
Speaker 1: protecting it from future administrations. So they have to get
Speaker 1: this done right. It can't be an executive order. It
Speaker 1: has to go through Congress because if it's just an
Speaker 1: executive order, another administration can come in and wipe it out.
Speaker 1: But if Congress gets it done, guys, this would be
Speaker 1: really big and I'm excited. So this is the right move.
Speaker 1: And Byron Nonels has been a pro crypto for a
Speaker 1: long time before many members of Congress. So really great
Speaker 1: to see that this is happening. Final news item here
Speaker 1: I want don't you guys know about Solana. Solana marks
Speaker 1: five year anniversary as network activity dips, fire Dancer launch
Speaker 1: inches closer. So Solana has seen a dip, but the
Speaker 1: overall market has seen a dip. However, a lot of
Speaker 1: meme coins have been on Solana and that market is
Speaker 1: right up, thank god.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: Some of you may hate me for saying that, but
Speaker 1: it was too frothy and we saw it was getting
Speaker 1: too djen where I mean the meme coins and the
Speaker 1: rug pulls is just ridiculous. And I'm not against all
Speaker 1: meme coins, like I believe there are legiti meme coings
Speaker 1: that have build a brand and a community, and they're
Speaker 1: trying to get real world adoption and much more. They're
Speaker 1: not set up as RUG poles, right like your doge Goines,
Speaker 1: your Pepes, your bonks and so forth. But as you
Speaker 1: guys know, there's been a ton of rug poles just
Speaker 1: started overnight and they get you know, you think about
Speaker 1: Dave Portnoy and all the nonsense he was doing it
Speaker 1: much more so. User activity has dipped somewhat on the
Speaker 1: network as pump dot fund activity wanes. Saturday mark the
Speaker 1: lowest proportion of tokens graduating to radium since the platforms
Speaker 1: launched last year. Great news, Jump Cryptos fire Dancer Solana client,
Speaker 1: currently in its test phase, is expected to launch this year.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: Fire Dancer is going to be very big for Solanum. Obviously,
Speaker 1: we have to wait and see how it will perform
Speaker 1: and how things will play out. But this is a
Speaker 1: big update coming for Solana and it should help it
Speaker 1: to have less downtime and to be more efficient and
Speaker 1: much more. So, let me give you some details on
Speaker 1: fire Dancer. The next significant milestone for the blockchain will
Speaker 1: like be the launch of Jump Cryptos fire Dancers Solana client,
Speaker 1: which provides an alternative high performance client for the network,
Speaker 1: increasing its transaction processing capabilities and resilience to threats and outages.
Speaker 1: A testnet version of the client and prototype Mayet version
Speaker 1: named Franken Dancer, both launched in September of last year.
Speaker 1: Though its launch was originally planned for the second quart
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty four, fire Dancer is widely expected to
Speaker 1: launch in full this year. Helius co founder Mert Memt
Speaker 1: has a significant figure in the Salona community, predicted in
Speaker 1: December that fire Dancer will go live end of Q two.
Speaker 1: The upgrade is expected to help Salona scale towards its
Speaker 1: goal of one million transactions per second. That's pretty good
Speaker 1: and it looks promising. Now we have to see if
Speaker 1: it actually works right. And I'm not being biased in
Speaker 1: any way. I hold some Solana tokens, but if this
Speaker 1: upgrade was happening on ethererem or XRP, I have to say, hey,
Speaker 1: let's see if it works right. We're not here to
Speaker 1: be emotional or bias or have some sort of maximalism
Speaker 1: like bitcoin maxis and so forth, but to make sure
Speaker 1: these things work because we are here to make money, guys,
Speaker 1: and ride the wave of this new technology and the
Speaker 1: adoption it's getting. But Solana has been getting a lot
Speaker 1: of adoption and you can't argue with that. That's the facts.
Speaker 1: But you know, one of the things that I'm curious
Speaker 1: about because it says the end of Q two and
Speaker 1: the timing right, you always got to watch the timing
Speaker 1: and how it aligns with market seasonality and what we've
Speaker 1: seen historically. So for example, usually Q two is very
Speaker 1: good for markets, especially in bull market years where you know, April,
Speaker 1: May June are very good. But then there's this saying
Speaker 1: sell and may go away because the summertimes are not
Speaker 1: usually that great. So could we see a reversal in
Speaker 1: the crypto market soon that starts starts the process of
Speaker 1: us going up. April is really good and it May
Speaker 1: is really good. Then there's a sell off in early June,
Speaker 1: and as always, buid the rumor sell the news event right,
Speaker 1: So Solana may start to get some bullish momentum as
Speaker 1: people get excited about oh, fire Dancer is going to
Speaker 1: be launching end of May or June, right, And just
Speaker 1: like we saw with the ETF launch, just like we
Speaker 1: saw with Trump winning the election and coming into office,
Speaker 1: pump buider rumor sell the news right then the dump.
Speaker 1: This is just the cycle of markets. It happens in
Speaker 1: the stock market as well, so I hope you guys understand.
Speaker 1: So this is you know, the timing of it. This
Speaker 1: is where you want to read between the lines, right.
Speaker 1: They may be holding off on this to catch the
Speaker 1: bullish momentum. So this is promising, you know. But let's
Speaker 1: see that we don't have a crystal ball. We don't
Speaker 1: know everything that's going to happen in the future, but
Speaker 1: we can form a thesis and look at what's happening.
Speaker 1: So this is really big for Solana and could signal
Speaker 1: also that we are going to have that rally that
Speaker 1: we've been waiting for. And I think that rally would
Speaker 1: have started sooner if we didn't have these macro factors
Speaker 1: of the tariff stuff, which is really put a lot
Speaker 1: of fear in the markets. And don't get me wrong,
Speaker 1: we were due for a correction to the Q four
Speaker 1: run up, which was really strong, right because you had
Speaker 1: the Trump effect on top of it, so euphoria sentiment
Speaker 1: was really high, and the markets always do the opposite
Speaker 1: of the herd, so the herd was coming in mean
Speaker 1: coins Trump one, Look, what's going to happen this that right,
Speaker 1: so much euphoria. We're going to one hundred and twenty
Speaker 1: five thousand dollars for bitcoin and more correction. But then
Speaker 1: you add the layer of the tariff wars which really
Speaker 1: kept pushing us down, and that pressure is felt across
Speaker 1: all markets. But as I started a podcast with guys
Speaker 1: FMC meeting this week, the status quo must continue at
Speaker 1: some point and we just have to be patient. Guys,
Speaker 1: let me know what you think about all these things.
Speaker 1: Do you agree with me? And are you looking to
Speaker 1: say at the same data I'm looking at. Let me
Speaker 1: know your thoughts in the common section. Guys. A great
Speaker 1: way you can support me in the podcast is by
Speaker 1: subscribing to my free email newsletter. It's one hundred percent free.
Speaker 1: It's on Substack. Also check out my book on Amazon.
Speaker 1: It's available in paperback and digital. And if if you
Speaker 1: want to expand your crypto knowledge, because knowledge is power,
Speaker 1: check out my new course at mycryptocurse dot com. It's
Speaker 1: a comprehensive course that covers every aspect of crypto and
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Speaker 1: go to mycrypto course dot com. Thank you for watching listening.
Speaker 1: I appreciate you all and I'll talk to you all
Speaker 1: later