WEBVTT 1 00:00:01.360 --> 00:00:32.359 I want me some glorio. 2 00:00:32.240 --> 00:00:37.920 Oh yeah, hello, welcome thief football gloryhold fiddask will listen 3 00:00:38.000 --> 00:00:42.000 half the podcast Google sound Cloud, Willa's watch us live 4 00:00:42.039 --> 00:00:44.359 on Facebook, live on YouTube, live. 5 00:00:44.200 --> 00:00:48.119 On Instagram, x Rumble Tumble whatever the fuck live. 6 00:00:48.119 --> 00:00:54.399 Reported any way you cannot record it, baby camera this week? 7 00:00:58.840 --> 00:01:00.840 Good buddy long whoa? 8 00:01:00.960 --> 00:01:01.719 What's up? 9 00:01:02.880 --> 00:01:06.959 All right? All right? Both Stephen's NFL Week nine and 10 00:01:07.079 --> 00:01:09.319 we are ready to go. And Buddy, I only came 11 00:01:09.359 --> 00:01:13.439 here to do two things, find some winners and drink 12 00:01:13.760 --> 00:01:17.040 some beer. And it looks like I never run out 13 00:01:17.079 --> 00:01:20.359 of winners and I never ever run out of beer. 14 00:01:20.519 --> 00:01:26.519 So Bo Stephens, hit that butt in for the funny. 15 00:01:26.599 --> 00:01:29.120 It's a question fun. I'm gonna have fun, and you're 16 00:01:29.159 --> 00:01:31.840 gonna have fun. We're all gonna have so much fucking fun. 17 00:01:31.920 --> 00:01:35.079 When the classic surgery to remove our goddamn smiles, you'll 18 00:01:35.120 --> 00:01:37.480 be whistling simpity do to out of your assholes. 19 00:01:37.719 --> 00:01:40.040 Are you out here for the money? Anybody tells your 20 00:01:40.040 --> 00:01:41.159 money's the root of all evil. 21 00:01:41.319 --> 00:01:44.280 Doesn't fucking have any They say money can't buy happiness. 22 00:01:44.319 --> 00:01:46.120 Look at the fucking smile on my face. 23 00:01:46.640 --> 00:01:49.319 Here to hear, baby, you have come to the right place. 24 00:01:49.719 --> 00:01:52.719 Two questions for you people. Do you like football? What 25 00:01:52.879 --> 00:01:56.879 a stupid question? That is, What a stupid question. You 26 00:01:57.040 --> 00:02:00.879 ask a lot of stupid questions for a stupid My apologies, 27 00:02:00.920 --> 00:02:05.400 mister President's I will do better. Do you like money? 28 00:02:05.519 --> 00:02:06.680 I'm a big fan of money. 29 00:02:07.319 --> 00:02:08.800 I like it, I use it. 30 00:02:09.319 --> 00:02:11.360 I have a little I keep it in a jar 31 00:02:11.439 --> 00:02:13.719 on top of my refrigerator. I'd like to put more 32 00:02:13.759 --> 00:02:15.919 in that jar. That's where you come in. That's right, 33 00:02:15.960 --> 00:02:19.240 Adam Center, That's exactly where we come in. Visit our 34 00:02:19.319 --> 00:02:22.759 Patreon page and check out all the winning opportunities. That's 35 00:02:22.879 --> 00:02:27.919 patreon dot com, slash bet, underscore FGH. Become our football 36 00:02:28.000 --> 00:02:30.240 partners for life so that you can bet football the 37 00:02:30.400 --> 00:02:38.919 right way, the winning way, the bet FGH way. And 38 00:02:39.280 --> 00:02:42.319 as always here on the sports patio, we got the 39 00:02:42.560 --> 00:02:46.599 TV's glowing, we got the bear heavily flowing tonight and 40 00:02:46.800 --> 00:02:50.439 right now it is everybody's most unfortunate favorite part of 41 00:02:50.560 --> 00:02:55.719 the show. My friend, tell the people all about your horrible, 42 00:02:56.319 --> 00:03:01.400 disgusting O choice of the week. 43 00:03:05.800 --> 00:03:09.680 I still drunk. I feel right don well, thank you 44 00:03:09.759 --> 00:03:11.879 very much their search and I am drinking a Miller 45 00:03:12.520 --> 00:03:16.120 genuine draft two out of five stars. But I'm drinking 46 00:03:16.159 --> 00:03:17.840 it's not a long horn because it is an old 47 00:03:18.639 --> 00:03:20.840 shitty beer. And when it comes to the NFL this year, 48 00:03:20.919 --> 00:03:26.159 I am an old shitty handicapper. But just like this beer, baby, 49 00:03:26.240 --> 00:03:28.400 I'm not going down without a fucking fight. A lot 50 00:03:28.479 --> 00:03:31.439 of season left. Hold on, I fucking turn this round 51 00:03:31.599 --> 00:03:35.360 upside down and go find those winners. We're gonna get 52 00:03:35.360 --> 00:03:37.479 the podcast now, go over every game in the NFL 53 00:03:37.919 --> 00:03:40.000 in the air to not find all the winners for 54 00:03:40.080 --> 00:03:42.719 you guys, and we're gonna get you paid. Of course, 55 00:03:43.000 --> 00:03:44.639 whether you fade long Horn, which you should in this 56 00:03:44.719 --> 00:03:46.919 free pick, or take my free pick, which you definitely should, 57 00:03:47.280 --> 00:03:53.840 we get you paid. Every single week. It is Oh, 58 00:03:53.960 --> 00:03:56.800 it's our sponsor, Texas Telehealth dot Com. Let's face it. 59 00:03:56.879 --> 00:04:02.039 Going to the doctor fucking sah. You got a schedule appointment, 60 00:04:02.080 --> 00:04:03.919 take time off of work just to drive up there, 61 00:04:04.000 --> 00:04:06.280 wait an hour to see a doctor. Fuck all of that. 62 00:04:06.960 --> 00:04:09.039 You go to Texas teleth dot Com. My good buddy, 63 00:04:09.080 --> 00:04:11.319 doctor West has got you on the phone. 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That is texts te llehealth dot com 80 00:04:58.120 --> 00:05:10.399 for all your medical needs baby please and gentlemen, boys 81 00:05:10.439 --> 00:05:12.240 and girdles, children of all ages. 82 00:05:21.040 --> 00:05:24.600 Oh my god, Okay, it's happening. God, what what do 83 00:05:24.720 --> 00:05:26.000 you think is happening right now? 84 00:05:26.079 --> 00:05:27.079 What's happening here? 85 00:05:27.279 --> 00:05:27.920 Excuse me? 86 00:05:28.160 --> 00:05:31.199 What is happening here? What is happening? What the fuck 87 00:05:31.439 --> 00:05:34.800 just happened? Oh? You know what's happening. It's time for 88 00:05:35.040 --> 00:05:37.759 all those wins coming to the ads to night member. 89 00:05:46.240 --> 00:05:49.120 Oh yeah, boys and girls, those bells, those bells. It 90 00:05:49.279 --> 00:05:53.120 is weak nine. It is time to rock and roll. 91 00:05:53.199 --> 00:05:55.519 Long, get out of here. Phil Collins, shut your mouth, 92 00:05:56.319 --> 00:05:59.079 Shut your mouth, Phil calls, we're talking to you, all right. 93 00:05:59.680 --> 00:06:03.000 Uh uh, Look we're gonna we're not messing around. We're 94 00:06:03.000 --> 00:06:07.040 starting with the barn burner of the week. I bet 95 00:06:07.079 --> 00:06:13.240 we're going on those New England Patriots. Well, those hot 96 00:06:13.519 --> 00:06:17.519 Atlanta Falcons who's playing quarterback? Who knows? Who gives a ship? 97 00:06:17.920 --> 00:06:19.920 They're coming up there. They're five and a half point 98 00:06:20.439 --> 00:06:24.279 road dogs. Longhorn, what do you have on this fucking 99 00:06:24.399 --> 00:06:25.399 just major matchup? 100 00:06:25.920 --> 00:06:27.519 That's actually not the game I thought you were gonna 101 00:06:27.519 --> 00:06:30.199 start with. But yeah, Atlanta, New England, this is a 102 00:06:30.279 --> 00:06:36.079 big kind of depends on who's playing quarterback for for Atlanta. 103 00:06:36.160 --> 00:06:40.519 So let me switch to I had us on Cincinnati Chicago, 104 00:06:40.839 --> 00:06:44.720 so let me just switch my sheet here to all 105 00:06:44.759 --> 00:06:49.639 the way down. Never know where you get your order 106 00:06:50.680 --> 00:06:54.439 of games from, but it's fine, it's it's it's all good. 107 00:06:54.519 --> 00:07:01.519 So we got Falcons currently, Well, where is he is? 108 00:07:01.560 --> 00:07:01.600 He? 109 00:07:01.720 --> 00:07:03.759 Not even on the he's not even on the injury 110 00:07:03.839 --> 00:07:08.480 Forard anymore. He's off the injury fort Okay, we still 111 00:07:08.519 --> 00:07:11.839 got drink London with a questionable. But that's that's good 112 00:07:12.000 --> 00:07:19.160 usually for a question when you're gonna play. So look, okay, 113 00:07:19.240 --> 00:07:20.800 so if these players are playing, what's the line currently? 114 00:07:20.959 --> 00:07:23.439 What'd you say five and a half? How did it 115 00:07:23.600 --> 00:07:24.920 not move then? Because it was five and a half 116 00:07:24.959 --> 00:07:27.720 when they were it was highly up in the air 117 00:07:27.879 --> 00:07:28.560 two days ago. 118 00:07:29.800 --> 00:07:34.439 Let's see five and a half. Juicey that us you 119 00:07:34.480 --> 00:07:36.360 can still get a six. Holy shit, if you luck 120 00:07:36.399 --> 00:07:38.560 the Falcons, head on over to bet us boys and girls. 121 00:07:38.560 --> 00:07:39.519 They're just giving money away. 122 00:07:39.879 --> 00:07:43.600 Okay, so this makes me feel even better about my pick, 123 00:07:44.519 --> 00:07:45.959 at least the side that I'm on, because I'm on 124 00:07:46.040 --> 00:07:48.279 New England. But I don't like that the line as 125 00:07:48.319 --> 00:07:51.360 it moved, because I should be getting some value. 126 00:07:51.040 --> 00:07:56.199 Because we Depending on what you believe he was, it 127 00:07:56.279 --> 00:07:58.240 was kind of a surprise that he didn't play last week. 128 00:07:58.279 --> 00:08:01.279 He was almost a go so well, basically the market 129 00:08:01.360 --> 00:08:02.240 was assuming. 130 00:08:02.399 --> 00:08:07.800 That's fine this They usually hedge a little bit at least, though, 131 00:08:07.839 --> 00:08:09.800 so I thought I could at least squeeze out a point, 132 00:08:09.879 --> 00:08:12.680 maybe a half point whatever point being I'm on New England. 133 00:08:13.480 --> 00:08:17.079 New England just appears to be the most unflinching. We 134 00:08:17.240 --> 00:08:20.120 don't care what the spot is, we don't care what 135 00:08:20.279 --> 00:08:22.560 y'all think about us. We just go out there and 136 00:08:22.680 --> 00:08:24.879 Drake May, I'm just gonna fucking ball out. If it's 137 00:08:24.920 --> 00:08:27.680 not working one hundred percent with my arm, I'll mix 138 00:08:27.759 --> 00:08:30.560 in my leg my legs to get some action. 139 00:08:30.759 --> 00:08:32.399 So he just needs one leg. 140 00:08:34.240 --> 00:08:38.919 What do you mean, Drake May? Oh yeah, he probably 141 00:08:38.960 --> 00:08:40.480 could be some of these teams with one leg. That's 142 00:08:40.480 --> 00:08:42.240 how that's how good you know that he's like in 143 00:08:42.360 --> 00:08:46.159 the MVP like conversation anyways, right now. 144 00:08:46.440 --> 00:08:48.480 And I said this last year, A Longhorn yelled at 145 00:08:48.559 --> 00:08:52.200 me profusely and said I was an idiot. I said, 146 00:08:52.240 --> 00:08:54.360 you know what, I know, Jade Daniels having this great season, 147 00:08:54.440 --> 00:08:57.120 but all in all, if I had to pick the 148 00:08:57.240 --> 00:08:59.720 best quarterback out of this class, this actually performed this year. 149 00:08:59.759 --> 00:09:02.840 It was And you were like, are you faking Hey 150 00:09:03.039 --> 00:09:05.039 is terrible? Heyes, John. I was like, look, I know, 151 00:09:05.440 --> 00:09:07.679 I know you can go back and look the tape, 152 00:09:07.720 --> 00:09:10.759 boys and girls, it's documented. It's all documented. I said, 153 00:09:10.879 --> 00:09:13.720 I know his numbers are bad, and I know Jay 154 00:09:13.799 --> 00:09:17.360 Nanners put up MVP numbers. However, all in all, if 155 00:09:17.399 --> 00:09:19.240 you look what he was working with and you look 156 00:09:19.279 --> 00:09:23.799 at his underlying stats, he's actually probably had, I can say, 157 00:09:23.840 --> 00:09:26.480 better than Jay Naimers, but it was pretty close. It 158 00:09:26.559 --> 00:09:28.559 was pretty fucking close. You just. 159 00:09:30.759 --> 00:09:31.000 Wow. 160 00:09:32.080 --> 00:09:34.399 On top of the at least I counted two or 161 00:09:34.440 --> 00:09:35.720 three lives that you just do. 162 00:09:35.879 --> 00:09:38.279 No, that's not a lot. That's fucking document on tape. 163 00:09:38.320 --> 00:09:41.879 You literally fucking yelled you like you're fucking crazy. I 164 00:09:41.960 --> 00:09:43.840 was like, I'm not crazy. I know what I see 165 00:09:43.919 --> 00:09:44.759 through the fucking numbers. 166 00:09:45.679 --> 00:09:48.559 First of all, you were crazy, because yeah, Jade and Daniels, 167 00:09:49.639 --> 00:09:50.360 I wasn't. 168 00:09:50.159 --> 00:09:53.360 Crazy his numbers compared to what he was working with. 169 00:09:54.240 --> 00:09:56.879 That's not how that that's not how that works. According 170 00:09:56.879 --> 00:10:00.279 to based on what he was working with. That, yes, 171 00:10:00.679 --> 00:10:02.840 and I'm sure I agreed that based on what he's 172 00:10:02.840 --> 00:10:06.759 working with it he played better than Yes, I did. No, 173 00:10:06.879 --> 00:10:10.960 I didn't prove poo pooing that you think that he 174 00:10:11.240 --> 00:10:14.120 had a better year than Jayde and Daniels. Yeah, I 175 00:10:14.200 --> 00:10:18.440 still I stand by that because that's dumb because Jaye 176 00:10:18.519 --> 00:10:20.519 Daniels took a team that that was gonna force to 177 00:10:20.559 --> 00:10:23.039 win five games of the goddamn Ancy Championship game. So 178 00:10:23.320 --> 00:10:25.159 if you want to play your flag on that, go ahead. 179 00:10:25.519 --> 00:10:29.600 But yeah, Jake, Drake May played better than his number show. 180 00:10:29.879 --> 00:10:32.399 I agree with that, I'm sure. And what he had 181 00:10:32.399 --> 00:10:36.440 to do, yes, I did, you did not. Okay, Well 182 00:10:36.799 --> 00:10:38.399 you can't prove it and you won't. I know you 183 00:10:38.440 --> 00:10:39.799 won't do the work to go back and prove it. 184 00:10:39.879 --> 00:10:40.320 So it's. 185 00:10:41.679 --> 00:10:42.919 How many times have I done the word just to 186 00:10:43.000 --> 00:10:43.519 do this to you? 187 00:10:44.919 --> 00:10:48.600 Remember your arm? I think this guy's probably yeah, yeah, yeah, 188 00:10:48.639 --> 00:10:52.000 he's a Yeah. That was like eight years ago. That 189 00:10:52.080 --> 00:10:53.639 was like eight years ago, it was. 190 00:10:53.639 --> 00:10:55.399 Like six and and I did do the work and 191 00:10:55.440 --> 00:10:56.840 I brought it back. You're like, I didn't say that. 192 00:10:56.840 --> 00:10:58.600 I was like, yeah, you did, But you won't be able. 193 00:10:58.759 --> 00:11:00.559 You won't be able to find every time I've talked 194 00:11:00.559 --> 00:11:03.120 about fucking Drake May and you just won't do the work. 195 00:11:03.159 --> 00:11:05.440 I know you won't. But anyways, so that he's playing 196 00:11:05.480 --> 00:11:09.360 like an m v P this year. Another thing that 197 00:11:09.480 --> 00:11:12.000 you conveniently left out is that I was higher on 198 00:11:12.120 --> 00:11:15.120 you coming out of the draft, So like you just 199 00:11:15.919 --> 00:11:18.639 you just forget that part of the story. So anyways 200 00:11:19.399 --> 00:11:19.960 he's playing. 201 00:11:21.759 --> 00:11:24.840 When you were like he sucks, I'm like, he doesn't 202 00:11:24.840 --> 00:11:26.639 suck as bad as you think he does. He really does. 203 00:11:27.679 --> 00:11:29.159 I was the one that ended up having to defend 204 00:11:29.200 --> 00:11:31.759 the kid, That's my point. But yes, that is true. 205 00:11:31.840 --> 00:11:34.120 Longhorn was much higher in them coming out that I was. 206 00:11:34.320 --> 00:11:36.080 I was not a believer in Drake May at all, 207 00:11:36.159 --> 00:11:38.279 but I wasn't believing in Jadan Daniels either, So obviously 208 00:11:38.320 --> 00:11:40.720 I didn't know about either one of them. Although I 209 00:11:40.799 --> 00:11:43.240 might end up being right about Jade Daniels because he 210 00:11:43.279 --> 00:11:44.039 can't stand the fit. 211 00:11:44.720 --> 00:11:49.360 He's having some uh some RG three issues. RG three 212 00:11:50.039 --> 00:11:55.759 come back. So in this game, Atlanta is just not 213 00:11:56.000 --> 00:12:00.639 an outdoor team. And anytime I can fade a dome 214 00:12:00.759 --> 00:12:03.679 team going on the grass. And I checked the weather 215 00:12:03.720 --> 00:12:05.720 report in New England, I'm not it's not what I 216 00:12:06.120 --> 00:12:08.000 would like. I'd like it to be a lot more 217 00:12:08.639 --> 00:12:12.080 Boston nasty. Then it's gonna be on Sunday, it's gonna. 218 00:12:11.840 --> 00:12:14.320 Be I guess the storm is gonna hang around. So 219 00:12:14.440 --> 00:12:15.399 that's from Jamaica. 220 00:12:16.039 --> 00:12:17.120 It's not gonna make it up there. 221 00:12:17.840 --> 00:12:22.039 Yeah, it's basically hitting weirdly enough, like in the Tennessee Kentucky. 222 00:12:23.240 --> 00:12:26.440 Yeah, it's gonna be cold. It's ship though, and it's 223 00:12:26.480 --> 00:12:31.320 gonna be a grass outdoor team or indoor team. Mm hmm. 224 00:12:32.720 --> 00:12:35.440 Good because they they suck when it's perfect weather. I 225 00:12:35.480 --> 00:12:37.840 can't imagine how bad they're gonna suck when it's when 226 00:12:37.879 --> 00:12:43.600 it's horrible, horrible weather. I can't even imagine. No, So 227 00:12:43.840 --> 00:12:47.679 like Pennix is uh, he's had two outdoor games he's 228 00:12:47.720 --> 00:12:50.559 owing to He's terrible like it. Like just I'm gonna 229 00:12:50.600 --> 00:12:52.840 start like just doing with these teams what what I 230 00:12:52.879 --> 00:12:56.080 should be doing, And that's spot. I mean that's how 231 00:12:56.120 --> 00:12:58.120 I do it basically anyways. But I'm gonna start writing 232 00:12:58.240 --> 00:12:59.919 these spots out until they prove me wrong. 233 00:13:00.240 --> 00:13:03.240 I'm just gonna be very bad period. He is twenty 234 00:13:03.279 --> 00:13:06.679 third and CPO plus EP. That's right above Bryce Sung 235 00:13:06.759 --> 00:13:09.480 and right below to it Antis plus blow your boys, 236 00:13:09.480 --> 00:13:12.720 Spencer Rat. Yeah, so that's another quarterback I might have 237 00:13:12.879 --> 00:13:13.519 been right about. 238 00:13:13.840 --> 00:13:17.559 Well, he lost to Carolina Outdoors thirty to like six, 239 00:13:17.679 --> 00:13:21.080 so he's he's just extra bad outdoors. So yeah, I'm 240 00:13:21.120 --> 00:13:25.240 on New England. Obviously. Six is a key number in 241 00:13:25.279 --> 00:13:27.679 the NFL these days. It's more key than than it 242 00:13:27.919 --> 00:13:30.120 has been before. So if you if you can get 243 00:13:30.159 --> 00:13:32.440 it under the six, that's great. I don't know that 244 00:13:32.440 --> 00:13:34.799 you'll necessarily need it, especially the way New England just 245 00:13:34.919 --> 00:13:37.879 rolls up on people. But yeah, I'm on the five on. 246 00:13:37.960 --> 00:13:42.759 Bet online Juice five, so you got access to that book. 247 00:13:42.840 --> 00:13:45.000 That's your best line five and a half everywhere else 248 00:13:45.080 --> 00:13:48.080 except the loan bet us at plus the six. 249 00:13:48.440 --> 00:13:53.639 So yeah, that's weird. No no injury report, by the way, 250 00:13:53.679 --> 00:13:58.519 for for for New England, they're they're just they're beating everybody. 251 00:13:58.759 --> 00:14:02.120 They got no injuries. It's it's it's amazing, and that's 252 00:14:02.320 --> 00:14:04.519 that's huge. Like these players are going down like flies 253 00:14:04.519 --> 00:14:08.519 in the NFL. If you're completely healthy, you're in good shit. 254 00:14:08.600 --> 00:14:11.120 It's a huge advantage. That's the reason why they're beating everybody. 255 00:14:11.320 --> 00:14:12.320 Yes's exactly why. 256 00:14:13.159 --> 00:14:15.279 Uh yeah, I got nothing on this game, so I 257 00:14:15.320 --> 00:14:18.159 didn't know who was playing quarterback and I just skipped it, 258 00:14:18.600 --> 00:14:22.039 all right, all right, moving on to those Green Bay Packers. 259 00:14:22.120 --> 00:14:26.799 Faith in those Carolina Panthers. Maybe brussh Young. I don't know. 260 00:14:26.960 --> 00:14:30.120 Andy Dalton broke his thumb, he's definitely out. They might 261 00:14:30.200 --> 00:14:31.879 not have a quarterback at all. They might just go 262 00:14:32.159 --> 00:14:35.720 full on wildcat wishbone. Let's fucking go baby. Either way, 263 00:14:36.440 --> 00:14:39.639 we're staring at green Bay. Uh, you can get them 264 00:14:39.720 --> 00:14:43.240 at thirteen at bet online. Thirteen and a half is 265 00:14:43.559 --> 00:14:47.360 juiced to the dog. So fading down to the thirteen, 266 00:14:47.440 --> 00:14:50.960 we'll call it thirteen point two five longhorn for the 267 00:14:51.440 --> 00:14:54.720 green Bay package home favorite here. Well, sorry, I forgot 268 00:14:54.720 --> 00:14:57.919 to go with the preseason line on this preseason line 269 00:14:57.960 --> 00:15:00.480 on this one. I mean I had Carolina as bad 270 00:15:00.759 --> 00:15:03.000 as back and get I had this game at dreen 271 00:15:03.039 --> 00:15:05.960 Bay minus eight. Vegas had it seven and a half. 272 00:15:07.320 --> 00:15:10.000 We're sitting at thirteen and a half, thirteen and a half, 273 00:15:10.120 --> 00:15:12.279 and Carolina is a five hundred football team. So does 274 00:15:12.320 --> 00:15:14.919 it say about the quarterback situation? Probably they don't fucking 275 00:15:14.960 --> 00:15:17.200 got one. Probably they don't fucking got one. We're probably 276 00:15:17.200 --> 00:15:19.399 gonna see a name is Jake delom available? 277 00:15:19.720 --> 00:15:19.840 Na? 278 00:15:19.919 --> 00:15:20.279 I thank you? 279 00:15:20.559 --> 00:15:23.440 Cam? Is cam available now playing this game? 280 00:15:23.559 --> 00:15:26.039 He's Brashdown's playing. He's not even on the injury cotan 281 00:15:26.159 --> 00:15:26.720 think that he is. 282 00:15:27.159 --> 00:15:27.960 I think that he is. 283 00:15:28.320 --> 00:15:30.000 I'm not seeing I'm listening on an injury fort. So 284 00:15:30.080 --> 00:15:31.159 he must have practiced today. 285 00:15:32.159 --> 00:15:35.440 He was at practice and stretched, which is an improvement 286 00:15:35.480 --> 00:15:40.039 according to the media thirteen and a half from eight 287 00:15:40.159 --> 00:15:42.679 and seven. Again I was down on them, Vegas is 288 00:15:42.720 --> 00:15:45.159 down on them, and now we're a full five five 289 00:15:45.200 --> 00:15:48.279 and a half points, six full points above what Vegas 290 00:15:48.279 --> 00:15:51.600 said six full points. And again Carolina is a five 291 00:15:51.720 --> 00:15:55.000 hundred team. So I don't know long Horn make it 292 00:15:55.080 --> 00:15:55.600 makes sense to me. 293 00:15:56.080 --> 00:15:59.720 I am, I'm looking if he's playing, I'm looking up 294 00:16:00.080 --> 00:16:04.000 rations injury status and try to find some better information. 295 00:16:05.080 --> 00:16:07.799 See, but in this game, you want to go through 296 00:16:07.840 --> 00:16:08.639 mine and you look it up. 297 00:16:09.399 --> 00:16:12.440 I mean mine's I don't look. He has to play. 298 00:16:12.759 --> 00:16:14.240 I mean, I don't give a fuck like you got 299 00:16:14.320 --> 00:16:16.679 nobody else. You gotta play. Get your ass out there 300 00:16:16.879 --> 00:16:20.519 and find that fucking dog. But this is a gross 301 00:16:20.679 --> 00:16:22.879 This is just a gross discussing spot to be in 302 00:16:23.000 --> 00:16:25.360 because you got Carolina. And again I talked about the 303 00:16:25.399 --> 00:16:27.960 spots that I like that I like to bet on 304 00:16:28.200 --> 00:16:32.000 or off teams, and this one's a colliding one because 305 00:16:32.039 --> 00:16:34.639 we've got Carolina on the road. That's not that's just 306 00:16:35.279 --> 00:16:37.919 you don't immediately that's not where we want to be. 307 00:16:38.960 --> 00:16:41.000 But unless they're playing the Jets and they can score 308 00:16:41.080 --> 00:16:43.360 thirteen points and not only win, but Cup. 309 00:16:45.720 --> 00:16:47.600 Yes, true, that is true. 310 00:16:47.639 --> 00:16:47.840 They did. 311 00:16:47.960 --> 00:16:50.480 They did win that one on the road. But then 312 00:16:50.519 --> 00:16:53.720 you got Green Bay, which their thing that you don't want, 313 00:16:53.840 --> 00:16:56.919 at least currently is you don't want them as big favorites. 314 00:16:56.960 --> 00:16:59.320 They don't. They're they're this year, They're not. They're not 315 00:16:59.639 --> 00:17:04.319 covering big favorites. Jordan Love is owing for ats in 316 00:17:04.440 --> 00:17:06.559 his career as a favorite of seven or more points. 317 00:17:07.079 --> 00:17:10.720 It's not his particular spot. So we've gotta we gotta 318 00:17:11.000 --> 00:17:11.839 we got a class here. 319 00:17:12.039 --> 00:17:14.559 I think it's a systematic thing too for Green Bay, 320 00:17:14.680 --> 00:17:17.920 Like their coach is so smart and he's so confident 321 00:17:17.960 --> 00:17:19.359 in what they do, which is what I have been 322 00:17:19.400 --> 00:17:21.240 saying the whole time. Has a peak? Yet they have 323 00:17:21.319 --> 00:17:23.400 a peak? Yet they have a peak. Don't think they have. 324 00:17:24.400 --> 00:17:26.119 They have not seen their best football. Now we saw 325 00:17:26.160 --> 00:17:27.359 a flash of it in Pittsburgh. 326 00:17:27.519 --> 00:17:30.200 We do against good teams, though, which which tells me 327 00:17:30.279 --> 00:17:32.039 that they're that they know they're better than what they 328 00:17:32.160 --> 00:17:35.799 show on some of these Yeah, which so that so 329 00:17:36.039 --> 00:17:39.079 I'm landing on Carolina in any kind of contest, I'm 330 00:17:39.319 --> 00:17:41.160 reluctantly gonna have to plug them in at the third 331 00:17:41.200 --> 00:17:44.720 that the monster number historically, I know historically is a 332 00:17:44.759 --> 00:17:47.880 good number. I mean, I just am I gonna get 333 00:17:48.000 --> 00:17:51.759 motherfucked by Carolina on the road outdoors? Probably so, But 334 00:17:51.960 --> 00:17:54.759 I mean, what what else are you gonna do? So, yeah, 335 00:17:54.799 --> 00:17:56.960 it's just a girls numbers play for me. I really need, 336 00:17:57.440 --> 00:17:59.680 I really need Bryce Young to just suck it up 337 00:17:59.680 --> 00:18:01.519 and get your ass out there. I mean, just just 338 00:18:02.480 --> 00:18:05.119 just do it. But yeah, got that fucking dog and 339 00:18:05.240 --> 00:18:08.440 to pick your poison game, I'm gonna take the Carolina 340 00:18:08.480 --> 00:18:09.039 poison pill. 341 00:18:09.119 --> 00:18:11.720 I guess yeah, I'd have to leave with the power 342 00:18:11.759 --> 00:18:16.279 ringers on Carolina here now. But the thing I like 343 00:18:16.599 --> 00:18:18.480 best year is in total. So this total is at 344 00:18:18.519 --> 00:18:21.039 forty four and a half seems low. And if you 345 00:18:21.079 --> 00:18:23.440 look at what the total has been doing, Longhorn, it 346 00:18:23.480 --> 00:18:27.400 has been a ridiculous slate of overs this season, yet again, 347 00:18:27.720 --> 00:18:30.119 even worse than last year. I mean even worse. Like 348 00:18:30.200 --> 00:18:32.119 if you we talked about it at the very beginning 349 00:18:32.119 --> 00:18:33.599 of the season, if you literally walked up and bet 350 00:18:33.680 --> 00:18:36.720 the over every game last year and the favorite, you 351 00:18:36.799 --> 00:18:39.000 literally made money. Hey you didn't make much, but you 352 00:18:39.200 --> 00:18:41.160 made money. Just say, I don't care who's playing, I 353 00:18:41.160 --> 00:18:42.880 don't care what the total is, give me the favorite 354 00:18:43.079 --> 00:18:45.680 give me the most square thing possible, give me the 355 00:18:45.759 --> 00:18:48.279 favorite and the over, and you walked away at the 356 00:18:48.359 --> 00:18:51.640 end of the season winning money, which is mind fucking 357 00:18:51.720 --> 00:18:55.920 to us and to most professionals. That's not how traditionally 358 00:18:56.000 --> 00:18:58.119 you win in the NFL. But I've talked about. 359 00:18:58.359 --> 00:18:59.880 They can't catch up to the new rules. 360 00:19:00.160 --> 00:19:03.400 So it's not only that I truly believe that the 361 00:19:03.519 --> 00:19:07.559 influx of the titty touts and the fact. 362 00:19:07.400 --> 00:19:10.039 That I don't think I don't think that's I. 363 00:19:10.079 --> 00:19:12.599 Think that you're wrong. I think that I'm right. I 364 00:19:12.680 --> 00:19:14.640 think the titty touts and the fact that this is 365 00:19:14.720 --> 00:19:18.000 legal everywhere, and all the titty toowls do is repeat 366 00:19:18.519 --> 00:19:21.079 people like me and you who say the traditional things, 367 00:19:21.519 --> 00:19:24.880 bet the dogs, bet the under all that gets out there, 368 00:19:25.599 --> 00:19:28.119 And now Vegas has made the adjustment to where favorites 369 00:19:28.119 --> 00:19:31.319 are covering and the fucking totals are going over. I 370 00:19:31.440 --> 00:19:34.880 truly believe that because at this point they wouldn't continue 371 00:19:34.920 --> 00:19:37.200 to do something that was gonna beat them. That's not 372 00:19:37.279 --> 00:19:39.920 what Vegas thinks. So I truly believe. I just believe 373 00:19:40.920 --> 00:19:41.640 that to be true. 374 00:19:41.920 --> 00:19:46.599 Now so so with the change in the kickoff rule, 375 00:19:47.000 --> 00:19:50.119 the fact that every team gets the memo now that 376 00:19:50.559 --> 00:19:53.279 you just go for it on fourth downs or this year, 377 00:19:53.319 --> 00:19:54.119 but that's just this year. 378 00:19:54.240 --> 00:19:56.200 On the kickoff. Last year the kickoff rule, I told 379 00:19:56.240 --> 00:19:58.039 you we have no consequence. They were all just going 380 00:19:58.079 --> 00:19:59.319 to kick the INDs on which they did. 381 00:19:59.759 --> 00:20:01.720 It didn't have a tick up, it was a tick 382 00:20:01.759 --> 00:20:03.240 up and just did tick up. 383 00:20:03.279 --> 00:20:04.799 But I told you every team's gonna kick in the 384 00:20:04.839 --> 00:20:08.160 inZone and they did. Now this year they're kicking it 385 00:20:08.319 --> 00:20:11.559 in the landing zone because the filing is too great, right, 386 00:20:12.240 --> 00:20:15.119 So now it's shit created more variants back towards the 387 00:20:15.240 --> 00:20:19.200 under because now we have a different differential. Like last 388 00:20:19.279 --> 00:20:21.200 year was pretty much ninety percent of the time they 389 00:20:21.240 --> 00:20:24.319 started the fucking thirty like nine percent. They didn't give 390 00:20:24.319 --> 00:20:25.839 a show that they're still kicking the inzet So now 391 00:20:26.960 --> 00:20:29.359 we have a bigger variance, So that shouldn't really be 392 00:20:29.400 --> 00:20:33.559 playing a factor in this. The fourth down thing absolutely 393 00:20:33.640 --> 00:20:35.680 plays a factor, but again the market adjusts for that 394 00:20:35.839 --> 00:20:39.200 if it's if they're really getting beat, they do adjusts. 395 00:20:39.400 --> 00:20:41.720 They're not getting beat because all the teddy towns still 396 00:20:41.839 --> 00:20:44.720 repeat what we say, take the undertake the dog, and 397 00:20:44.799 --> 00:20:47.240 they're not losing, because if they were losing, they would 398 00:20:47.279 --> 00:20:50.039 make the adjustment, but they're not. That's why they have 399 00:20:50.160 --> 00:20:52.599 it like, oh, you have just all the money and 400 00:20:52.680 --> 00:20:54.119 you know that I'm right. And I don't know if 401 00:20:54.119 --> 00:20:56.720 it's the titty tows for sure, but it has. It 402 00:20:56.839 --> 00:20:59.720 has to play a factor that this ship is legalized 403 00:21:00.119 --> 00:21:03.720 where And that's just the old school thought. And since 404 00:21:03.759 --> 00:21:06.759 everybody bet that when it was first started and we 405 00:21:06.839 --> 00:21:09.720 were having good years, now they've made the adjustment to 406 00:21:09.759 --> 00:21:11.799 where can't just bet the dog. 407 00:21:11.720 --> 00:21:13.880 In the end to win the NFL definitely can't do 408 00:21:14.000 --> 00:21:17.119 the dog, for sure, and you really can't under No, 409 00:21:17.319 --> 00:21:17.839 you can't do that. 410 00:21:18.440 --> 00:21:22.799 In this game. I like that said, all that fucking preaching. 411 00:21:22.839 --> 00:21:23.839 I do like the under here. 412 00:21:24.160 --> 00:21:28.960 It's fourteen to six. Oh you're talking about Carolina, Carolina. 413 00:21:29.960 --> 00:21:31.240 I like the under here in the forty four and 414 00:21:31.240 --> 00:21:34.160 a half. A couple of different reasons. Number One, this 415 00:21:34.319 --> 00:21:37.119 isn't actually a good matchup for Jordan Love. Now, this 416 00:21:37.240 --> 00:21:40.599 Carolina defense, their offense blows on the road, but their 417 00:21:40.680 --> 00:21:43.119 defense goes to play again. They beat me when they 418 00:21:43.160 --> 00:21:46.839 scored thirteen points on the road against the Jets team 419 00:21:46.920 --> 00:21:50.160 who they just scored forty against fucking Censior. Whatever they 420 00:21:50.240 --> 00:21:53.480 scored scored like almost thirty against the Cows and fucking 421 00:21:53.559 --> 00:21:58.359 thirty something against Pittsburgh. So against incompetent defenses, the Jets 422 00:21:58.400 --> 00:22:01.519 can't score the ball. Against Carolina, they could move the ball. 423 00:22:01.599 --> 00:22:04.359 There's a reason for that. Carolina is the fourth best 424 00:22:04.480 --> 00:22:07.559 success rate defense in the NFL. Low Wren's been telling 425 00:22:07.640 --> 00:22:10.720 us for years that they're building, they're building, they're building. 426 00:22:11.079 --> 00:22:14.960 What's finally fucking here, It's finally come together. They're the 427 00:22:15.079 --> 00:22:18.000 fourth best success rate defense in the entire league. And 428 00:22:18.200 --> 00:22:23.000 green Bay, oh, sorry, second best, second best defense, green Bay. 429 00:22:23.039 --> 00:22:27.240 That's wild, Yes, green Bay is the fourth best success 430 00:22:27.319 --> 00:22:31.119 rate on offense. Green Bay has scored exactly twenty seven 431 00:22:31.160 --> 00:22:34.240 points in all three home games this year. Carolina on 432 00:22:34.319 --> 00:22:38.880 the road has scored a ten, twenty, two, thirteen, and thirteen. 433 00:22:40.000 --> 00:22:41.720 So feels like an all day under to. 434 00:22:41.759 --> 00:22:44.440 Me, Brush Young practice fully boy the way. 435 00:22:44.960 --> 00:22:47.880 Okay, this is a terror greative with Bryce Young Brushung 436 00:22:48.200 --> 00:22:50.200 is a terrible matchup for him. He loses two points 437 00:22:50.200 --> 00:22:53.119 to BBG. He's going to be ultimate dog ass in 438 00:22:53.200 --> 00:22:56.200 this game. So again that leads to the under. The 439 00:22:56.319 --> 00:22:58.440 other thing is this, green Bay does gain half a 440 00:22:58.480 --> 00:23:00.920 point to the BBG through the running game, which that's 441 00:23:00.960 --> 00:23:03.680 bustling matchup bass. Again, Carolina is very good against the run. 442 00:23:04.680 --> 00:23:07.480 Here's the surprising thing to me, though Carolin is supposed 443 00:23:07.480 --> 00:23:08.880 to lose a point and a half of the BBG, 444 00:23:09.599 --> 00:23:12.039 Carolina has got the fifth best success rate rushing the 445 00:23:12.039 --> 00:23:13.920 ball and green Bay is twenty first on the defense. 446 00:23:13.960 --> 00:23:18.079 So that's all matchup base. So if the coaching staff 447 00:23:18.119 --> 00:23:20.319 for Carolina is worth a shit, they should be able 448 00:23:20.319 --> 00:23:22.640 to make some changes at least mitigate the loss of 449 00:23:22.680 --> 00:23:26.160 some of those points there. Now, overall, I agree with 450 00:23:26.200 --> 00:23:29.279 your cover green Bay winning this game twenty four to fifteen. 451 00:23:30.839 --> 00:23:33.359 That's safely under the forty four and a half. You 452 00:23:33.519 --> 00:23:36.240 just got, you know, a great defense going against a 453 00:23:36.279 --> 00:23:40.119 great offense, and you've got a middling defense going against 454 00:23:40.480 --> 00:23:43.720 on the road, a fucking horrendous offense, and it's a 455 00:23:43.799 --> 00:23:47.880 horrendous matchup for Bryce Young. I agree with your Carolina Leen. 456 00:23:48.200 --> 00:23:50.920 I like the under all day, so I would take 457 00:23:50.920 --> 00:23:53.359 the dog in the under which neither of them ever wins. 458 00:23:53.599 --> 00:23:54.519 What do I have to lose? 459 00:23:55.319 --> 00:23:58.039 I was just looking at their PFF kind of scorers 460 00:23:58.160 --> 00:24:03.119 and at least player player by player, and I looked 461 00:24:03.200 --> 00:24:06.160 up who the defensive coordinator is. It's a giro Evro 462 00:24:06.599 --> 00:24:09.279 and he was He came there last year with the 463 00:24:09.400 --> 00:24:13.079 new coach, the new head coach, and they sucked last year. 464 00:24:14.039 --> 00:24:16.400 And I don't see a whole lot of new players. 465 00:24:16.680 --> 00:24:18.920 I mean, they drafted Nick Gordon out of a good 466 00:24:18.960 --> 00:24:22.799 old aggie, out of A and M and it's not 467 00:24:23.400 --> 00:24:26.480 they didn't do holy shit else. And the fact that 468 00:24:26.599 --> 00:24:30.160 he's turned what they had last year mostly into what 469 00:24:30.319 --> 00:24:32.599 they are this year so far, you know, you know, 470 00:24:32.799 --> 00:24:36.000 through through eight games. Damn hats off to to whoever 471 00:24:36.079 --> 00:24:39.359 this defensive coordinator is, because they absolutely were garbage last year. 472 00:24:40.000 --> 00:24:44.759 And sometimes we've seen this longhorn that they I like 473 00:24:44.799 --> 00:24:48.400 your boy, Minnesota. It takes a year sometimes if you 474 00:24:48.480 --> 00:24:50.960 have a really complex scheme for these players to actually 475 00:24:51.079 --> 00:24:56.279 understand it and actually know their roles. And although some 476 00:24:56.359 --> 00:24:59.400 of the changes might not look like major players, it's 477 00:24:59.440 --> 00:25:02.160 just guys field gaps. You know exactly what he needs 478 00:25:02.200 --> 00:25:03.920 in defense. Maybe that's it. I don't know. I don't 479 00:25:03.920 --> 00:25:04.920 know this guy's coaching tree. 480 00:25:05.039 --> 00:25:08.880 But there's only one player rated above like a sixty 481 00:25:09.119 --> 00:25:12.759 six individually on their defense, and that's Derek Brown, who's 482 00:25:13.039 --> 00:25:16.759 been a you know, all pro type defensive tackle. If you. 483 00:25:18.240 --> 00:25:20.400 Look what they get against Dallas, the number two offense 484 00:25:20.440 --> 00:25:20.839 in the NFL. 485 00:25:22.640 --> 00:25:26.039 Down, Oh, I've I've been noticing just watching them. It's like, Damn, 486 00:25:26.079 --> 00:25:28.720 Carolina's a little tough in this game. Tough in this game. 487 00:25:28.799 --> 00:25:32.279 I mean just and so hey, man, if it's if 488 00:25:32.279 --> 00:25:34.400 it's working, it's working like this is you know what 489 00:25:34.480 --> 00:25:37.119 this will get to Pittsburgh later. This is what I'm 490 00:25:37.119 --> 00:25:40.400 talking about. Pittsburgh has awesome players that I've seen be 491 00:25:40.680 --> 00:25:43.839 all pro slash Pro Bowls in different places and in 492 00:25:43.920 --> 00:25:47.000 Pittsburgh and for whatever reason it ain't working. Sometimes a 493 00:25:47.079 --> 00:25:50.039 coordinator makes a huge difference. So it's just you know, 494 00:25:50.839 --> 00:25:53.640 he's obviously doing well in Carolina, and uh, whoever's doing 495 00:25:53.759 --> 00:25:57.799 in Pittsburgh just fire yourself because you've been awful. It's 496 00:25:57.960 --> 00:26:00.759 so stupid, stupid. 497 00:26:01.200 --> 00:26:04.720 That Pittsburgh coordinator is so stupid. All right, let's move 498 00:26:05.160 --> 00:26:08.759 on two. All right, now we'll get to the name 499 00:26:08.799 --> 00:26:12.279 you thought we're going to. Let's those Cincinnati Bengals, probably 500 00:26:12.359 --> 00:26:19.359 without Joe Flacco, back to Misster Browning. Is that is 501 00:26:19.400 --> 00:26:20.079 that Chicago? 502 00:26:20.279 --> 00:26:20.640 For sure? 503 00:26:21.519 --> 00:26:24.359 He's got a spring. Dacy joined his shoulder the fact 504 00:26:24.400 --> 00:26:26.839 they went from a favorite to dog tells me probably. 505 00:26:26.960 --> 00:26:27.000 So. 506 00:26:28.200 --> 00:26:28.319 Uh. 507 00:26:28.599 --> 00:26:32.119 Now this number has ticked down a bit now, it's 508 00:26:32.160 --> 00:26:34.039 down to two and a half, although it's heavily sent. 509 00:26:34.279 --> 00:26:37.599 So let's call it two point seventy five. Those Chicago Bears, 510 00:26:37.720 --> 00:26:40.640 that kid are the favorites. What do you got on this? 511 00:26:41.440 --> 00:26:45.240 Yeah, it's it's showing them was questionable. Really, this is 512 00:26:45.440 --> 00:26:48.480 this is major, major dependent on Joe Flacco for me, 513 00:26:48.680 --> 00:26:50.079 because I can't trust. 514 00:26:49.920 --> 00:26:52.759 They were so just real quick. They open world open 515 00:26:52.839 --> 00:26:57.039 minus one. They got up the Chicago minus three starting 516 00:26:57.039 --> 00:27:00.559 to take back down now, so we'll see what that means. 517 00:27:00.640 --> 00:27:04.039 But obviously they're heading towards Flacco not playing. 518 00:27:05.519 --> 00:27:08.440 I mean, Browning is not he's been awful this year. 519 00:27:08.680 --> 00:27:10.720 He's been better than what he's shown this year in 520 00:27:10.799 --> 00:27:14.279 the past. With the injuries that Chicago's dealing with in 521 00:27:14.319 --> 00:27:18.759 the secondary, this should be it should be a good 522 00:27:18.839 --> 00:27:22.039 spot for Cincinnati, and I would hope it would be Flacco. 523 00:27:24.039 --> 00:27:27.599 So it's a possible danger zone. But I clearly can't 524 00:27:27.640 --> 00:27:30.359 do it because you just all this uncertainty. I'm not 525 00:27:30.519 --> 00:27:33.880 I'm not going to burn a unit on this much uncertainty. 526 00:27:34.319 --> 00:27:39.000 Because there's also the formula for Chicago to go in 527 00:27:39.079 --> 00:27:41.359 there and get this win, good running game that they've 528 00:27:41.359 --> 00:27:43.440 been showing lately going against a fucking sieve of a 529 00:27:43.519 --> 00:27:47.279 defense versus the run. The Jets rent up, the Jets 530 00:27:47.400 --> 00:27:50.240 round out like like basically the same strategy that Jets 531 00:27:50.240 --> 00:27:51.079 did last week. 532 00:27:51.640 --> 00:27:54.559 To play linebacker. I don't know how much help, right. 533 00:27:54.720 --> 00:27:58.480 So you know with Chicago coming off that that loss 534 00:27:58.640 --> 00:28:01.640 last week, you got, you got motivation, you got the 535 00:28:01.680 --> 00:28:07.720 bounce back fucking oh yeah, and you've Ben Oh he's 536 00:28:07.920 --> 00:28:10.480 he hates losing. You can tell if it fucking irks him. 537 00:28:10.599 --> 00:28:12.359 And now if he can get his quarterback to hate 538 00:28:13.119 --> 00:28:16.960 and and lose as much as he does and actually 539 00:28:17.000 --> 00:28:21.440 put the work in that that the coach does, yeah, 540 00:28:21.720 --> 00:28:24.279 he's You can't cry in the NFL when you lose 541 00:28:24.319 --> 00:28:25.680 the game. You can't go to the stands and cry 542 00:28:25.720 --> 00:28:28.680 in your mama's arms. So figure it out. But this 543 00:28:28.799 --> 00:28:31.640 is a good spot for Chicago. If Flacco was playing, 544 00:28:32.559 --> 00:28:35.559 I like, give me any points I can get with Cincinnati. 545 00:28:35.599 --> 00:28:37.720 But clearly, if he was playing, you wouldn't be getting points. 546 00:28:37.759 --> 00:28:40.119 So I'm kind of torn. I'm gonna probably land on 547 00:28:40.240 --> 00:28:42.720 Chicago just for the bounce back factor and the fact 548 00:28:42.759 --> 00:28:45.240 they should be able to dominate this game on the ground, 549 00:28:45.319 --> 00:28:49.319 control the clock, and I just love that coach, and 550 00:28:50.640 --> 00:28:53.359 and I anytime I can fade Cincinnati, let me have 551 00:28:53.799 --> 00:28:56.799 all of that. So Chicago reluctantly. 552 00:28:57.920 --> 00:29:01.759 Cincinnati forever and ever and ever. I don't have anything 553 00:29:01.759 --> 00:29:04.559 in this game except for this. This is Cincinnati before 554 00:29:04.640 --> 00:29:08.160 the buye their home dog since twenty twenty one, seventeen, 555 00:29:08.240 --> 00:29:13.839 thirteen and one fifty six. Now, I don't know that 556 00:29:13.960 --> 00:29:16.279 factors in, but you don't have a quarterback or I mean, 557 00:29:16.359 --> 00:29:18.079 I'm with you. I think Browning can go out there 558 00:29:18.079 --> 00:29:20.240 and get it done. Chicago's defense has been pretty shitty 559 00:29:20.839 --> 00:29:21.440 all season. 560 00:29:21.759 --> 00:29:24.119 Yeah, I would never play this on if this would 561 00:29:24.200 --> 00:29:26.279 never make it either side on any car that I 562 00:29:26.279 --> 00:29:28.039 would ever have in a million years. 563 00:29:29.160 --> 00:29:32.000 Except twenty ninth and success rate, so except maybe been 564 00:29:32.039 --> 00:29:34.720 over because thirty first Chaugu's twenty nine. So you have 565 00:29:34.839 --> 00:29:37.000 two of the worst defenses in the NFL. I don't 566 00:29:37.000 --> 00:29:39.440 give if it is Browning, he should be able to score, 567 00:29:39.519 --> 00:29:40.519 Chicago's be able to score. 568 00:29:40.960 --> 00:29:43.720 What's the over at currently? Uh? 569 00:29:44.240 --> 00:29:46.119 When I wrote it, when I wrote it down in 570 00:29:46.200 --> 00:29:53.240 my journal, it's fifty one mm fifteen one. That's intriguing. 571 00:29:53.799 --> 00:29:56.200 That's that's a that's a key number. So if you 572 00:29:56.240 --> 00:29:58.960 can get that to fifty and a half, even if 573 00:29:59.000 --> 00:30:02.240 it is Browning, I might have some interest in that over. 574 00:30:02.279 --> 00:30:03.599 Yeah, he's gonna be able to put up points. 575 00:30:04.680 --> 00:30:06.920 Yeah, I've got some interest in that over. We saw 576 00:30:07.000 --> 00:30:08.799 Detroit put up I mean it's I know it's Detroy, 577 00:30:08.880 --> 00:30:12.240 but Chicago and Detroit actually want to play very similar 578 00:30:12.359 --> 00:30:14.400 styles of offense and they and they kind of are 579 00:30:14.519 --> 00:30:17.319 lately with the running game emergence of Chicago. So if 580 00:30:17.400 --> 00:30:18.880 Detroit can go in there and put up i don't know, 581 00:30:19.480 --> 00:30:23.359 forty something goddamn points that they did. Yeah, so I'm 582 00:30:23.480 --> 00:30:24.839 I'm interested in the over in this game. 583 00:30:24.920 --> 00:30:27.880 Sure, Yeah, that's that's the only way I look on 584 00:30:27.960 --> 00:30:30.400 this one. All right, let's move on to those Houston 585 00:30:30.480 --> 00:30:32.359 I said Houston with that h Texans. Now, this is 586 00:30:32.400 --> 00:30:34.880 a game. I don't know that I'll bet it, but 587 00:30:34.960 --> 00:30:37.359 I am very very interested to see this game for 588 00:30:37.599 --> 00:30:40.279 many many reasons. Yeah, Now preseas on this one. I'll 589 00:30:40.279 --> 00:30:43.000 bring up the preseas lots especially. Have you know the 590 00:30:43.119 --> 00:30:45.559 teams that we basically thought we would they are who 591 00:30:45.599 --> 00:30:47.960 we thought they were all right this one. I had 592 00:30:48.039 --> 00:30:51.240 Houston minus one and a half. No, yes, I had 593 00:30:51.279 --> 00:30:53.920 Houston minus one and a half. Vegas had Houston plus 594 00:30:54.000 --> 00:30:58.039 one and a half, So I fucking win. Uh, Houston 595 00:30:58.200 --> 00:30:59.599 is minus one and a half. So I called it 596 00:30:59.759 --> 00:31:04.599 right on the fucking number of that kid. Actually two 597 00:31:04.720 --> 00:31:07.839 at Heritage, but and two at Bravado, but one and 598 00:31:07.880 --> 00:31:12.319 a half most places, maybe one point seven somewhere around 599 00:31:12.319 --> 00:31:14.640 in there. It doesn't really matter between one and two. 600 00:31:15.640 --> 00:31:18.799 So uh. Now the total in this one is ticked 601 00:31:18.880 --> 00:31:22.319 up from thirty and a half, so that was a 602 00:31:22.359 --> 00:31:24.559 little interesting to me, especially with our projections. We'll get 603 00:31:24.559 --> 00:31:25.960 to in a second. What do you have on this one? 604 00:31:27.000 --> 00:31:30.680 Yeah, this one is six and two for the Broncos. 605 00:31:30.839 --> 00:31:35.000 By the way, I'm gonna be on Houston. I'm gonna 606 00:31:35.039 --> 00:31:38.799 be on Houston this game. And it kind of sucks 607 00:31:38.880 --> 00:31:41.960 that this was a line flip from from dog to 608 00:31:42.039 --> 00:31:45.119 favorite obviously earlier in the week. That sucks. So I 609 00:31:45.119 --> 00:31:47.400 don't I don't get to do a sounder or or 610 00:31:47.519 --> 00:31:48.640 get any kind of credit for that. 611 00:31:49.599 --> 00:31:54.279 But world open officially, and so okay, it's been all 612 00:31:54.359 --> 00:31:55.240 Texas money coming in. 613 00:31:55.880 --> 00:31:58.440 Yeah, I'm gonna be on their Patrick stan is out 614 00:31:59.599 --> 00:32:01.759 and Uson needs all the help they can get. When 615 00:32:01.880 --> 00:32:06.079 when with Stroud, I know Nico Collins is likely to 616 00:32:06.200 --> 00:32:08.720 come back from that concussion thing. They are getting Christian 617 00:32:08.759 --> 00:32:12.200 Kirk back, and the two rookie and the two he 618 00:32:12.240 --> 00:32:16.279 has been cleared, Nico yes, okay perfect, and then the 619 00:32:16.400 --> 00:32:20.079 two rookie Iowa State receivers that they drafted. In these 620 00:32:20.119 --> 00:32:22.359 absence and these and these injuries that they've had have 621 00:32:22.519 --> 00:32:24.599 kind of grown up over the last few weeks. Along 622 00:32:24.640 --> 00:32:29.000 with Woody Marks, the rookie that they drafted, they've been 623 00:32:29.839 --> 00:32:32.759 what you would expect from, you know, second and third, 624 00:32:33.000 --> 00:32:39.440 third round wide receiver selections, slow, slow to start, and 625 00:32:39.559 --> 00:32:42.440 then now they're starting to make some plays, so and 626 00:32:42.519 --> 00:32:46.119 now they can now now with Kirk and Nico back 627 00:32:46.160 --> 00:32:47.759 in the mix, they're going to slide into that third 628 00:32:47.799 --> 00:32:51.200 and fourth wide receiver set. Really like that. The emergence 629 00:32:51.200 --> 00:32:53.599 of Woody Marks, their fifth round pick. I believe out 630 00:32:53.640 --> 00:32:55.880 of USC running back really loved him coming out, talked 631 00:32:55.880 --> 00:32:59.680 about him in the preseason, pods him at that combo 632 00:32:59.720 --> 00:33:02.119 with him and Nick Chubb starting to fall into place, 633 00:33:02.440 --> 00:33:06.200 the office line still garbage, but not hot garbage. It's 634 00:33:06.359 --> 00:33:09.559 kind of garbage. So it's we're we're getting a little 635 00:33:09.559 --> 00:33:12.960 bit better there. But this basically both that's not my 636 00:33:13.000 --> 00:33:15.039 handicap because because at this point we know what Houston 637 00:33:15.119 --> 00:33:16.680 is and we know what they're not. We know they're 638 00:33:16.680 --> 00:33:22.359 a great defense, we know they're yeah, not any good. 639 00:33:22.400 --> 00:33:24.079 But they win his game. They're four and four and 640 00:33:24.160 --> 00:33:26.519 they're climbing when they started. Then they start owing three. 641 00:33:28.680 --> 00:33:30.160 I think they started owing three. So if they won 642 00:33:30.200 --> 00:33:32.599 his game, they're on a four and one, you know, stretch. 643 00:33:32.720 --> 00:33:37.880 So happen that what might happen? 644 00:33:40.319 --> 00:33:41.200 Mm hmmmm. 645 00:33:42.759 --> 00:33:44.920 Well, we don't count records till they're till all the 646 00:33:44.960 --> 00:33:47.319 games are done, so it's it is. It is what 647 00:33:47.440 --> 00:33:52.000 it is. But Denver is another team that we we 648 00:33:52.119 --> 00:33:53.839 know what they are. We know they're a good team 649 00:33:54.400 --> 00:33:55.440 with a limp. 650 00:33:57.640 --> 00:33:59.039 Against Baltimore without. 651 00:34:00.799 --> 00:34:01.279 Mm hmmm. 652 00:34:01.759 --> 00:34:04.599 So they really they really should be, I. 653 00:34:04.680 --> 00:34:07.079 Know, because because Lamar was winning so many games, he 654 00:34:07.200 --> 00:34:08.760 was winning so many games when he was in there, 655 00:34:08.800 --> 00:34:09.079 he was. 656 00:34:09.119 --> 00:34:11.559 He was just bet they would have lost forty. 657 00:34:12.599 --> 00:34:15.480 He was Lamar was just fucking cash and wins after 658 00:34:15.559 --> 00:34:19.239 wins when he was healthy. That that Baltimore team maybe. 659 00:34:20.880 --> 00:34:22.920 But I bet it wasn't forty four to ten. 660 00:34:23.039 --> 00:34:26.159 Let's see Baltimore, yep, one win, one win, still in 661 00:34:26.199 --> 00:34:28.360 the air. We're in week nine. That's uh that that 662 00:34:29.840 --> 00:34:35.239 Oh sorry, sorry Baltimore, you got too in week nine. Congratulations. No, 663 00:34:35.880 --> 00:34:39.639 Denver is bow Knicks dependent and anytime you're making them 664 00:34:41.280 --> 00:34:43.079 That's what I said. I said, if they said, if 665 00:34:43.079 --> 00:34:43.880 they win this game, to be. 666 00:34:43.920 --> 00:34:46.159 Four and four, so yeah, so they should be too 667 00:34:46.199 --> 00:34:46.559 in five. 668 00:34:47.000 --> 00:34:49.880 Yeah, okay, all right, We're done with the kudas should 669 00:34:49.920 --> 00:34:51.719 have wouldow game and let's just get into this one. 670 00:34:51.840 --> 00:34:56.519 Bow Knicks is four and seven as in his career 671 00:34:56.760 --> 00:34:59.199 as a dog, he's turning into deck for me and 672 00:34:59.280 --> 00:35:01.559 I just talked about and a couple of handicaps ago 673 00:35:01.639 --> 00:35:05.880 that I'm going to start riding these streaks and like spots. 674 00:35:06.239 --> 00:35:08.760 We know, Dak you bet him against bad teams. You 675 00:35:08.760 --> 00:35:11.559 don't bet him against good teams, especially on the road. 676 00:35:12.320 --> 00:35:16.039 Bonux is turned into that for me, so until proven otherwise, 677 00:35:16.960 --> 00:35:19.280 you know. And now you can say, hey, well I 678 00:35:19.320 --> 00:35:22.519 don't think that Houston's a bad team. You fine, you 679 00:35:22.840 --> 00:35:25.000 will well if you're right on, well, we'll find out 680 00:35:25.000 --> 00:35:26.079 at the end of the year if that was right. 681 00:35:26.159 --> 00:35:29.360 Or wrong, But right now, I know they're an elite defense, 682 00:35:29.440 --> 00:35:31.880 and Bonix has to play against an elite defense. So 683 00:35:32.639 --> 00:35:34.280 I'm going to take the other side on this one. 684 00:35:34.400 --> 00:35:37.719 And and and the fact that Patrick starts in huh 685 00:35:42.159 --> 00:35:49.760 better than Houston, boy, I don't. Well, maybe they are, 686 00:35:49.880 --> 00:35:52.199 but you're you're flipping coins here. And the fact that 687 00:35:52.280 --> 00:35:55.159 Patrick Sartan is out. And here's the thing Patrick often 688 00:35:55.239 --> 00:35:59.800 allows allows Denver, who is a high blitz rate team, 689 00:36:00.400 --> 00:36:03.039 they can they send five more than anybody any other 690 00:36:03.079 --> 00:36:05.559 team because they got a guy that can lock down 691 00:36:05.599 --> 00:36:07.920 one on one. Is that gonna change their whole kind 692 00:36:07.960 --> 00:36:10.480 of thing? I doubt it. I bet they probably try 693 00:36:10.480 --> 00:36:13.480 to do what they do somewhat. It's gotta change something. 694 00:36:13.639 --> 00:36:15.480 But like I just like the fact that Houston is 695 00:36:15.480 --> 00:36:18.639 getting all the receivers back. You've got the main cog 696 00:36:18.800 --> 00:36:20.480 of the Denver defense that allows me new what they 697 00:36:20.599 --> 00:36:24.239 do out It all points to Houston for me. I'm 698 00:36:24.280 --> 00:36:26.719 getting them under you know, under two points, under three points, 699 00:36:26.760 --> 00:36:27.800 so I'm gonna be. 700 00:36:27.840 --> 00:36:30.679 On them all right, He's gonna be on you, Houston. 701 00:36:30.880 --> 00:36:32.360 I don't have a strong feeling this scam, which is 702 00:36:32.360 --> 00:36:34.119 just busting on horns balls Now the prior ring is 703 00:36:34.280 --> 00:36:37.079 do you have denver. I've got it twenty to twenty 704 00:36:37.159 --> 00:36:40.639 one Denver. Now the total so that was over the 705 00:36:40.679 --> 00:36:43.840 total rigis thirty nine and a half. It's ticked up 706 00:36:43.880 --> 00:36:46.079 to forty and a half. Now here's the thing. The 707 00:36:46.159 --> 00:36:49.719 success rate does not agree with this thing going over. 708 00:36:50.159 --> 00:36:52.679 You've got two of the worst offenses in the entire league, 709 00:36:53.159 --> 00:36:56.079 twenty sixth and twenty fifth, respectively, and you've got the 710 00:36:56.199 --> 00:37:00.599 number four and number one success rate defense, respectively. So 711 00:37:00.719 --> 00:37:02.920 it feels like an under all the way. But my 712 00:37:03.039 --> 00:37:06.239 numbers don't support that, and the market has supported my 713 00:37:06.400 --> 00:37:09.559 numbers going to the over here. It's kind of those 714 00:37:09.599 --> 00:37:12.639 sneaky overs that I think might actually happen. It's not 715 00:37:12.800 --> 00:37:15.880 enough for me to get behind it, but the market 716 00:37:15.960 --> 00:37:19.840 and my number, these hidden numbers are supporting that. But 717 00:37:19.920 --> 00:37:21.840 if you just looked at it on paper, got two 718 00:37:21.840 --> 00:37:24.719 of the worst offenses versus got two bottom five offense 719 00:37:24.840 --> 00:37:28.719 but versus two top five defenses, what would a square 720 00:37:28.760 --> 00:37:30.800 look at that and say, oh, fucking give me the 721 00:37:30.880 --> 00:37:33.880 under probably goes over twenty two to twenty one. Flipp 722 00:37:33.920 --> 00:37:36.360 it either way, something like that. Either one of these 723 00:37:36.440 --> 00:37:38.599 quarterbacks great out well, but they don't. They're not terrible. 724 00:37:38.639 --> 00:37:40.880 It's minus half a point, same thing to run a game. 725 00:37:41.039 --> 00:37:43.519 Not good, but not terrible, minus half a point. Again, 726 00:37:43.880 --> 00:37:46.679 these are the number one and number four defenses in 727 00:37:46.800 --> 00:37:51.079 the entire NFL, and they both played some better offenses 728 00:37:51.119 --> 00:37:52.920 in this league. It's not like they've had cake schedules 729 00:37:52.960 --> 00:37:55.320 in that perspective, so you can't even point to that. 730 00:37:55.599 --> 00:37:57.800 They're just really fucking good. They're well coached, they have 731 00:37:57.880 --> 00:38:00.599 a lot of fucking talent, and like I said, you know, 732 00:38:00.880 --> 00:38:04.880 the over probably ticked up with the like Longhorn said, 733 00:38:04.880 --> 00:38:08.639 the receivers coming back, even with you know this awesome 734 00:38:08.760 --> 00:38:11.119 De Dever defense coming in there. And don't ever forget, 735 00:38:11.199 --> 00:38:14.559 don't ever forget both these quarterbacks, I mean, Boonecks especially, 736 00:38:14.639 --> 00:38:16.679 can throw you a pick six that'll get you over 737 00:38:16.760 --> 00:38:18.920 forty and a half, real fucking quick in an NFL game. 738 00:38:18.960 --> 00:38:22.199 That's almost guaranteed if that happens. So, and you're right, 739 00:38:22.239 --> 00:38:24.679 long Horn, he's terrible on the road. He's bad almost 740 00:38:24.719 --> 00:38:27.159 all the time. Throw on the road against a great defense. 741 00:38:27.280 --> 00:38:29.400 I couldn't back him either. So I don't disagree with 742 00:38:29.480 --> 00:38:31.800 your play, just busting your balls. I don't have anything 743 00:38:31.840 --> 00:38:34.599 on this game. But if I had to, I would 744 00:38:34.599 --> 00:38:37.800 definitely lean Houston and the Ovah their kids, which would 745 00:38:37.800 --> 00:38:42.000 be again not not supported by the way, but my 746 00:38:42.119 --> 00:38:45.679 numbers supported in the market supports. So in forty and 747 00:38:45.719 --> 00:38:47.760 a half, that's just so fucking dude. 748 00:38:48.320 --> 00:38:50.400 So it's a little number. 749 00:38:50.519 --> 00:38:52.719 Again, his offenses are you know, dog shit. 750 00:38:52.880 --> 00:38:55.559 So when it's when it's six to three at halftime, though, 751 00:38:55.599 --> 00:38:57.079 it's a that's a big hill to climb. 752 00:38:57.800 --> 00:38:59.960 It's a big hill to climb, especially with those two quarters. 753 00:39:00.320 --> 00:39:02.960 But we've seen, we've seen both those quarterbacks go nuts 754 00:39:03.000 --> 00:39:05.639 so in the fourth quarter too, so they're weird like that. 755 00:39:06.480 --> 00:39:09.239 All right, let's move on. Actually I want to I 756 00:39:09.280 --> 00:39:10.840 do want to check that real quick. Let's see where 757 00:39:10.880 --> 00:39:14.119 both those quarterbacks are, just out of curiosity. 758 00:39:15.559 --> 00:39:16.039 Where they are. 759 00:39:16.360 --> 00:39:22.000 See uh bo next, he's actually sixteenth cps, so he's 760 00:39:22.039 --> 00:39:29.199 right on average, whereas our boy he's thirteen. So really 761 00:39:29.199 --> 00:39:32.079 the quarterbacks haven't been playing as far as that metrics 762 00:39:32.239 --> 00:39:37.440 terribly overall. But man, they here's the problem with both 763 00:39:37.480 --> 00:39:40.480 those offits. They have no sustain success rate. Just to 764 00:39:40.519 --> 00:39:42.599 explain it to you, boys and girls, it comes from 765 00:39:42.639 --> 00:39:46.880 sustaining drives sustained drives are basically like any drive that's 766 00:39:46.920 --> 00:39:50.280 gonna last you know, eight or more plays in the NFL. 767 00:39:50.360 --> 00:39:52.159 I think it's ten in college, eight in the NFL. 768 00:39:52.719 --> 00:39:55.800 That's really where that great comes from. So although success 769 00:39:55.880 --> 00:39:58.480 rates are not great, both of them have a closer 770 00:39:58.519 --> 00:40:01.840 to positive EPA than they probably probably should, simply because 771 00:40:01.880 --> 00:40:05.760 they both have explosive play you know, capability in them. 772 00:40:06.119 --> 00:40:09.480 We've seen the Broncos score how many bomb touchdown you 773 00:40:09.519 --> 00:40:11.679 know what I'm saying, Like big, big plays down the field. 774 00:40:11.679 --> 00:40:14.280 They'll do nothing bow Nicks with dirt two balls go 775 00:40:14.440 --> 00:40:15.679 three and out, three and out, three out, and all 776 00:40:15.679 --> 00:40:18.559 of a sudden boom port and something fifty yard touchdown whatever, 777 00:40:18.599 --> 00:40:21.199 like you know, they'll bust or run. Something will happen. 778 00:40:21.280 --> 00:40:23.559 Like it's usually a run because if there's a deep 779 00:40:24.119 --> 00:40:27.079 bomb shot by bow Knicks, he overthrows about three yards. 780 00:40:27.119 --> 00:40:29.920 So it's a look if he ever, if. 781 00:40:29.840 --> 00:40:32.159 He ever figures that out, it doesn't necessarily have to 782 00:40:32.280 --> 00:40:35.119 bomb the throw, but like he throws the part. You know, 783 00:40:35.159 --> 00:40:36.719 Sean Payton calls the perfect play. 784 00:40:37.079 --> 00:40:39.400 Yeah, it's a short pass that turns into something. 785 00:40:39.480 --> 00:40:42.599 Yeah, it's never like like four point seven. 786 00:40:42.639 --> 00:40:45.800 So whenever he drops back and launches one, I'm like, 787 00:40:45.880 --> 00:40:48.960 well that's fucking what's the next down? What do we 788 00:40:49.039 --> 00:40:49.679 doing on the next down? 789 00:40:50.599 --> 00:40:53.119 Just to present perspective what I was talking about. So 790 00:40:53.280 --> 00:40:55.840 twenty fifth to twenty six in success right, However, both 791 00:40:55.920 --> 00:40:59.599 of them, the Broncos are plus zero point six eight 792 00:40:59.639 --> 00:41:03.760 ep Houston's point three. You don't get plus. The only 793 00:41:04.159 --> 00:41:06.639 other offense down there in that territory that's actually plus 794 00:41:06.719 --> 00:41:08.960 is Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is actually twenty seven success 795 00:41:09.079 --> 00:41:11.400 rate because they don't have a lot of long successful 796 00:41:11.440 --> 00:41:14.400 drives either, a lot of big plays Baker makes. You know, 797 00:41:14.960 --> 00:41:17.880 it's those kind of officers have that explosive capability to them. 798 00:41:17.960 --> 00:41:21.679 So it's hard to have explosive plays against the Houston 799 00:41:21.800 --> 00:41:23.119 defense and. 800 00:41:23.239 --> 00:41:25.800 The Denver defense. So again it all leans to an 801 00:41:25.880 --> 00:41:28.800 under from me. My numbers says slightly over the market degrees. 802 00:41:29.239 --> 00:41:29.559 I don't know. 803 00:41:29.679 --> 00:41:32.400 I wouldn't bet it, but it is what it is. Carl, 804 00:41:32.440 --> 00:41:38.599 let's move one of those Pittsburgh Steelers. Fuck yeah, hosting 805 00:41:38.679 --> 00:41:42.079 those Indianapolis Colts. Oh okay, let's look at the preseason 806 00:41:42.119 --> 00:41:45.960 line on this one. Yeah wrong, I was I had 807 00:41:46.039 --> 00:41:52.000 Pittsburgh minus five Green nerd Vegas had a minus three 808 00:41:52.039 --> 00:41:54.119 and a half. We both get a big fat f 809 00:41:54.199 --> 00:41:56.400 although Vegas has beat me by point and a half 810 00:41:56.440 --> 00:42:02.440 because Andy's now minus three. Got something your boy, three 811 00:42:02.519 --> 00:42:04.719 point doh, this is your spot, baby, I got a 812 00:42:04.840 --> 00:42:07.199 danger zone, I got a big dig I gotta sound 813 00:42:07.239 --> 00:42:08.719 of what I got coming to me right. 814 00:42:08.960 --> 00:42:12.079 Yeah, No, we're not hitting any of those this week. 815 00:42:12.440 --> 00:42:14.239 And you know to that point, this is the. 816 00:42:14.280 --> 00:42:16.119 Perfect trap, damn it, Baltimore. 817 00:42:17.199 --> 00:42:21.079 This is the perfect trap spot for for Indy. They 818 00:42:21.199 --> 00:42:23.920 haven't had a hiccup yet. They're due for a hiccup. 819 00:42:24.119 --> 00:42:28.320 Been saying that for a while, going on the road 820 00:42:28.719 --> 00:42:31.280 to a team coming off an embarrassing primetime loss. This 821 00:42:31.480 --> 00:42:34.840 is literally another perfect spot. But I'm just not doing anymore. 822 00:42:34.880 --> 00:42:38.119 I'm just not doing it until I'm gonna stick. I'm 823 00:42:38.119 --> 00:42:42.039 gonna stick true to the riding, riding the current whatever 824 00:42:42.159 --> 00:42:44.639 it is, like, I just and I've got no reason 825 00:42:45.000 --> 00:42:48.119 on this current wave of Indiana, Indie, Indiana of Indy 826 00:42:48.440 --> 00:42:54.079 to to not ride them. I've got no current wave 827 00:42:54.480 --> 00:42:57.840 to go on Pittsburgh an the spots because recently it 828 00:42:58.000 --> 00:43:03.400 just ain't fucking working. So prove me wrong, and and 829 00:43:03.480 --> 00:43:05.519 then maybe I'll start changing my mind a couple a 830 00:43:05.559 --> 00:43:08.239 couple of wins, but no, until then, fuck off. Give 831 00:43:08.320 --> 00:43:11.159 me Indy, especially at three. I know there was some 832 00:43:11.239 --> 00:43:12.760 three and a half. It's kind of doing this little 833 00:43:12.840 --> 00:43:14.800 you know, back and forth, back and forth. Co depends 834 00:43:14.800 --> 00:43:16.280 on where you want to get it at. You know, 835 00:43:16.360 --> 00:43:18.320 if you like Pittsburgh, you better get the three and 836 00:43:18.360 --> 00:43:21.400 a half because there's probably some available. If you like 837 00:43:21.519 --> 00:43:25.079 any then certainly obviously get the three and a half 838 00:43:25.320 --> 00:43:27.800 on the board that I see now, But there was 839 00:43:27.840 --> 00:43:30.039 probably plenty of available earlier in the week, so. 840 00:43:31.880 --> 00:43:35.000 So it could definitely be three and a half. 841 00:43:35.920 --> 00:43:39.039 They had the perfect Pittsburgh last week had the perfect opportunity, 842 00:43:39.679 --> 00:43:43.639 another great spot in primetime. You're up double digits at halftime, 843 00:43:43.719 --> 00:43:47.079 if you have even an average defense to slightly above 844 00:43:47.119 --> 00:43:49.599 average defense, that's over. You can turn your TV off, 845 00:43:49.760 --> 00:43:52.199 you can go to bed, count your money. It's over. 846 00:43:52.800 --> 00:43:55.320 They got not only did they not get the cover, 847 00:43:55.519 --> 00:43:57.679 getting plus three and a half three three and a half, 848 00:43:57.920 --> 00:44:00.280 they lost the game by ten. Like this is They're 849 00:44:00.280 --> 00:44:04.880 a bad, bad, bad, bad, bad bad bad defense. They're 850 00:44:04.960 --> 00:44:07.920 not good. So yeah, there's no way, man, I just 851 00:44:08.079 --> 00:44:09.920 this is this is the new NFL man in the 852 00:44:10.000 --> 00:44:14.400 new NFL, you don't. You don't just keep banging your 853 00:44:14.440 --> 00:44:17.639 head against these fucking dogs that that can't fucking bark, 854 00:44:17.840 --> 00:44:20.280 and I'm not doing it. Toman proved to me that 855 00:44:20.320 --> 00:44:22.639 you've got a little bark in you until then I'm out. 856 00:44:23.920 --> 00:44:26.360 Yeah, we said four and three last week. Since twenty 857 00:44:26.400 --> 00:44:28.480 twenty one, four and four now as a dog three 858 00:44:28.639 --> 00:44:33.559 or less at home, He's just another coach that's basically 859 00:44:33.719 --> 00:44:36.320 the average fit at three points or less of any 860 00:44:36.360 --> 00:44:37.159 coach in the NFL. 861 00:44:37.639 --> 00:44:40.599 The highest paid defense in the NFL brought in Jail 862 00:44:40.599 --> 00:44:44.719 and Ramsey, all these pass rushers. They can'st off anybody 863 00:44:45.079 --> 00:44:49.119 fucking like fire fire your fucking Devince coordinator, like do 864 00:44:49.360 --> 00:44:52.159 something you can't just well, let's just go out there 865 00:44:52.159 --> 00:44:53.880 and play another game and see if we turn around. No, 866 00:44:54.000 --> 00:44:56.840 you you got Baltimore reeling, You got them on their heels. 867 00:44:57.199 --> 00:45:00.119 Now they're gonna be They're coming for you. They're is 868 00:45:00.119 --> 00:45:02.599 gonna start stacking wins after wins, and they are coming 869 00:45:02.639 --> 00:45:04.599 for you. You got to get this ship fixed or 870 00:45:05.159 --> 00:45:07.440 they're gonna suck you up. And you better hope that 871 00:45:07.480 --> 00:45:10.599 you got a wald card spot available available to you. 872 00:45:10.719 --> 00:45:13.519 If Baltimore takes his division or if not, you talk 873 00:45:13.559 --> 00:45:18.840 about a colossal fucking crash. From three weeks ago, I 874 00:45:18.920 --> 00:45:21.679 was like, well, this is Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh's division. They're alsosly 875 00:45:21.679 --> 00:45:23.960 gonna win the division to where if they miss the playoffs. 876 00:45:24.119 --> 00:45:26.559 Oh man, you talk about a walk away season for 877 00:45:26.679 --> 00:45:29.000 Aaron Rodgers, this will be appic. 878 00:45:30.400 --> 00:45:36.719 Aaron Rodgers or Aaron Rodgers talking about the press confidence asked, 879 00:45:36.760 --> 00:45:39.360 and you know what he thought about joining the Pittsburgh Steelers. 880 00:45:39.800 --> 00:45:44.480 Immediately regrets this decision, I mean not yet, like like 881 00:45:44.599 --> 00:45:46.519 if they like this is a spot, if they can 882 00:45:46.639 --> 00:45:49.320 if this is to save your fucking season, spot, if 883 00:45:49.360 --> 00:45:51.800 they if they can beat Indy, who, like we said, 884 00:45:52.119 --> 00:45:53.599 they're fucking dude, they're. 885 00:45:53.559 --> 00:45:56.880 So due to get their doors blown. I just I 886 00:45:57.239 --> 00:45:58.519 can't do it until I see it. 887 00:46:00.159 --> 00:46:02.199 And other than that, they've been and. 888 00:46:02.239 --> 00:46:03.800 They should have won that game or could have won 889 00:46:03.880 --> 00:46:06.239 that game, so like so like, I don't even consider 890 00:46:06.320 --> 00:46:08.400 that a hiccup. Now, I'm talking about a true hiccup 891 00:46:08.440 --> 00:46:11.039 where they go out and they score thirteen points, Daniel 892 00:46:11.440 --> 00:46:14.840 Daniel Jones throws two or three interceptions, A true hiccup. 893 00:46:15.119 --> 00:46:18.559 They haven't had that hey, well one one was like 894 00:46:18.599 --> 00:46:20.440 a like, you know, at the end of the game, 895 00:46:20.679 --> 00:46:22.440 kind of a you know your you're kind of fucked 896 00:46:22.519 --> 00:46:24.840 like really just one. It was really just one. 897 00:46:25.800 --> 00:46:28.519 Yeah, that was really their only if you grade out 898 00:46:28.519 --> 00:46:31.000 their game by game, that was their only game where 899 00:46:31.079 --> 00:46:34.880 they they didn't get you know, their average available yards. 900 00:46:34.920 --> 00:46:37.199 They didn't get fucking like all this studden are grade like, 901 00:46:37.440 --> 00:46:39.320 they just didn't perform that game. This is the only one, 902 00:46:39.519 --> 00:46:43.800 literally the only one, okay, on this one Poweranks and 903 00:46:43.880 --> 00:46:47.960 Noco Actually so this was and but the BBG does 904 00:46:48.000 --> 00:46:50.760 great out Andy, winning twenty seven to twenty two. That's 905 00:46:50.920 --> 00:46:53.880 under the fifty and a half. Look, I would be 906 00:46:54.000 --> 00:46:56.440 very surprised if this under hits. You've got a great 907 00:46:56.480 --> 00:46:58.960 offense versus shitty defense in the middle of the road 908 00:46:59.000 --> 00:47:02.840 offense versus Indy. The Indie defense, they're even a lower 909 00:47:02.880 --> 00:47:06.039 success rate the Pittsburgh. They're even worse than Pittsburgh. But 910 00:47:06.599 --> 00:47:09.000 Indy has a negative EPA for play on defense, which 911 00:47:09.079 --> 00:47:11.599 means they allow a lot of methodical drives, but they 912 00:47:11.639 --> 00:47:14.519 do not allow many explosive plays. So the under does 913 00:47:14.639 --> 00:47:17.920 have a chance here simply because of that. However, the 914 00:47:18.000 --> 00:47:20.239 look at Pittsburgh's offense. Aaron Rodgers grades up flat, the 915 00:47:20.320 --> 00:47:23.760 running game grades up flat. Daniel Jones gains Indiana. Jones 916 00:47:23.840 --> 00:47:25.800 gains a point and a half of the BBG versus 917 00:47:25.800 --> 00:47:28.400 the shitty defense and Indies running game, which has been 918 00:47:28.480 --> 00:47:32.320 on fire, it gains a half a point. And if 919 00:47:32.320 --> 00:47:34.519 you give that guy anything extra other than what he 920 00:47:34.679 --> 00:47:36.760 normally gets, good fucking luck. What does he got three 921 00:47:36.800 --> 00:47:39.599 games already with three fucking touchdowns? This dude talking about 922 00:47:39.599 --> 00:47:42.559 the MVP. He is literally the MVP of the league 923 00:47:42.639 --> 00:47:44.159 right now. And what's his name? 924 00:47:44.199 --> 00:47:46.239 The running back Taylor? 925 00:47:46.880 --> 00:47:49.480 Yes he is. I mean, he's literally the league MVP 926 00:47:49.679 --> 00:47:51.559 right now. He is the Cats. He is, he is 927 00:47:51.599 --> 00:47:55.880 what's carrying that offense. He is the fucking dude, he's 928 00:47:56.079 --> 00:47:56.840 one of last year. 929 00:47:57.840 --> 00:48:01.599 Okay, but but well all right, fine, but like what 930 00:48:02.519 --> 00:48:05.880 Taylor's been there for years, He's had he's had monster 931 00:48:06.039 --> 00:48:10.119 years before too, and without without Daniel Jones, they're not 932 00:48:10.239 --> 00:48:10.800 seven to one. 933 00:48:11.519 --> 00:48:14.079 So no, no, I'm not. I'm not just Daniel Jones. Well, 934 00:48:14.119 --> 00:48:16.559 he's had obviously the year of his fucking life. 935 00:48:16.639 --> 00:48:18.719 But this is this is why quarterbacks always been MVP 936 00:48:18.880 --> 00:48:20.960 and running backs don't, because because running backs can have 937 00:48:21.000 --> 00:48:24.159 a great year and you're fucking six and ten or whatever, 938 00:48:24.239 --> 00:48:27.119 you're six and seven, and so like that's why he'll 939 00:48:27.119 --> 00:48:28.679 get he'll get Offensive Player of the Year. 940 00:48:29.039 --> 00:48:31.679 Now, he'll never he's never had he'll never have a 941 00:48:31.760 --> 00:48:35.159 many touchdowns before. His yards per game like at the 942 00:48:35.239 --> 00:48:37.039 end of the season is probably gonna obviously gonna be 943 00:48:37.079 --> 00:48:39.239 his best season of all time. Yes, but again to 944 00:48:39.320 --> 00:48:42.920 your point, he also has a competent quarterback who's actually 945 00:48:43.000 --> 00:48:46.400 delivering footballs everywhere then allows the running game to work too. 946 00:48:46.599 --> 00:48:49.440 So they have no weakness. They just have no weakness. 947 00:48:49.480 --> 00:48:52.400 So like we've seen defenses, their defense sucks. Their defense 948 00:48:52.440 --> 00:48:54.679 is not playoff caliber. They're gonna get beat early in 949 00:48:54.719 --> 00:48:57.800 the playoffs there unless they can do something. Their defense 950 00:48:57.840 --> 00:49:00.199 is worse than Pittsburgh gres out worst in Pittsburgh's what 951 00:49:00.760 --> 00:49:04.920 is not good. Yes, it's not good, not good. But 952 00:49:05.840 --> 00:49:08.679 does it matter against this Pittsburgh offense. Probably not, because 953 00:49:08.679 --> 00:49:13.000 Pittsburgh's offense is very middling at best. So again I 954 00:49:13.159 --> 00:49:14.960 lean with you. Not gonna be a call for me. 955 00:49:16.719 --> 00:49:18.800 I wouldn't be surprised the underhits, although there is an 956 00:49:18.800 --> 00:49:21.519 avenue for it. Again, I got twenty seven to twenty two. 957 00:49:23.079 --> 00:49:24.960 You know, that's about I mean, it's a little bit 958 00:49:25.000 --> 00:49:27.599 plus game for any on the road as far as 959 00:49:27.639 --> 00:49:30.800 their points go, and they've been scoring thirty plus points 960 00:49:30.840 --> 00:49:32.519 a game. They're the number one scoring offense in the 961 00:49:32.679 --> 00:49:35.119 entire NFL. On the road, that dips a little bit. 962 00:49:35.199 --> 00:49:37.679 But again, the advantage they have a quarterback and running 963 00:49:37.679 --> 00:49:40.000 back should help them get close to that thirty points. 964 00:49:40.920 --> 00:49:43.679 And I don't know that Pittsburgh, even against the shitty defense, 965 00:49:43.880 --> 00:49:44.960 maybe they can score thirty. 966 00:49:45.159 --> 00:49:45.559 I don't know. 967 00:49:45.960 --> 00:49:46.840 You're gonna have to prove. 968 00:49:46.719 --> 00:49:47.000 It to me. 969 00:49:47.719 --> 00:49:50.400 But this is the spot. This is the This is 970 00:49:50.760 --> 00:49:52.480 not just Tomlin. This is a spot. Like you said, 971 00:49:52.559 --> 00:49:55.559 it's a huge motivational spot for Pittsburgh. We've got to 972 00:49:55.599 --> 00:49:56.239 get this ship right. 973 00:49:56.760 --> 00:49:58.960 Well, listen, we've just talked about you got to fix 974 00:49:59.000 --> 00:50:01.280 the defense. We want Baltimore be one of the worst 975 00:50:01.320 --> 00:50:05.119 defenses in the league. And the last two games, I 976 00:50:05.199 --> 00:50:06.880 mean that this game is only in the third quarter, 977 00:50:07.519 --> 00:50:10.280 seems like they fix their defense. At least they've you know, 978 00:50:10.400 --> 00:50:12.639 right at it enough to where with a good offense 979 00:50:12.679 --> 00:50:19.000 you can kind of start stacking up with uh damn it, 980 00:50:19.760 --> 00:50:22.639 Oh Chicago, and they shut them down. They gave us 981 00:50:22.639 --> 00:50:24.400 six points in the first quarter and it was basically 982 00:50:24.400 --> 00:50:29.159 a shutdown after that. So I just yeah, so you know, 983 00:50:29.360 --> 00:50:30.960 like you can do it, like if you have good 984 00:50:30.960 --> 00:50:33.880 players in their defense, which Pittsburgh fucking does. I'm not 985 00:50:33.960 --> 00:50:37.400 an idiot. I can see your roster. I can count 986 00:50:37.760 --> 00:50:40.480 pro bowlers. Okay, I'm not stupid. I know your defense 987 00:50:40.559 --> 00:50:43.719 is better than this. Fix it fucking just don't fix 988 00:50:43.760 --> 00:50:44.880 it this week because I'm probably gonna be. 989 00:50:44.840 --> 00:50:49.039 On Indy but you but you know that the disparity 990 00:50:49.079 --> 00:50:52.679 on the coaching staff between the Baltimore coaching staff and 991 00:50:52.880 --> 00:50:55.239 I mean what everybody, what everybodyames is a great coach 992 00:50:55.280 --> 00:50:56.679 of Tom, which he's really not. 993 00:50:56.960 --> 00:50:59.440 You're not. You're not twenty years deep in your career 994 00:50:59.559 --> 00:51:02.039 and you don't no shit about coaching defense. He knows 995 00:51:02.079 --> 00:51:04.079 how to coach defense, and that now I don't know 996 00:51:04.280 --> 00:51:07.639 X and those fix it you're you're the twenty year 997 00:51:07.840 --> 00:51:08.440 veteran coach. 998 00:51:08.719 --> 00:51:12.039 Fix it all right, Let's move on to something they 999 00:51:12.079 --> 00:51:13.960 can't be fixed, and that's those ten. 1000 00:51:14.519 --> 00:51:19.199 N the perfect segue that is no lie oh. 1001 00:51:19.239 --> 00:51:23.960 And they're playing those Sandy Diego superages. Thank you for 1002 00:51:24.079 --> 00:51:26.039 my only win last week San Diego. 1003 00:51:27.159 --> 00:51:31.239 That game they can't even they can't even get called 1004 00:51:31.440 --> 00:51:34.239 LA when they give you your only fucking NFL win 1005 00:51:34.320 --> 00:51:34.679 in the week. 1006 00:51:34.840 --> 00:51:39.159 That's distress, because look, I did win, but I'm just 1007 00:51:39.239 --> 00:51:42.000 gonna say it was one of the We talked about 1008 00:51:42.039 --> 00:51:43.800 this all the time. There was one moment in that game, 1009 00:51:43.880 --> 00:51:47.519 and it was early. It was early. It was their 1010 00:51:47.840 --> 00:51:51.639 second drive and Herbert throws up the zero zero. Herbert 1011 00:51:51.639 --> 00:51:55.280 throws a pick six and we're down seven to nothing. 1012 00:51:55.320 --> 00:51:59.199 I'm like, mother fucker, And it got replayed and it 1013 00:51:59.239 --> 00:52:02.360 got called in plate correctly. He didn't quite catch it, 1014 00:52:03.280 --> 00:52:05.079 and for them to overturn a pick six, you know 1015 00:52:05.159 --> 00:52:08.519 it has to be indisputable. It was indisputable. But then 1016 00:52:08.559 --> 00:52:11.159 it was still like third and eighteen. They looked like 1017 00:52:11.280 --> 00:52:14.159 shit through two drives already, couldn't get a first down, 1018 00:52:14.559 --> 00:52:17.599 and Herbert throws a beautiful ball to your boy, Keenan 1019 00:52:17.639 --> 00:52:21.360 Allen over the middle, twenty yards first down. They go 1020 00:52:21.519 --> 00:52:24.000 score the touchdown, and it's fucking Katie bar the door 1021 00:52:24.039 --> 00:52:27.000 from there. It's that one little moment, that one little 1022 00:52:27.039 --> 00:52:29.679 moment in a game where it just he goes from 1023 00:52:29.719 --> 00:52:32.280 being a struggle all night. She just fucking cruising to 1024 00:52:32.360 --> 00:52:36.360 a victory is something brought my way, thankfully to God 1025 00:52:36.880 --> 00:52:40.039 in that one. But anyway, I need a lot of 1026 00:52:40.079 --> 00:52:42.840 breaks in this one's they get to face those mighty Titans. Baby, 1027 00:52:43.320 --> 00:52:47.280 and this came his kid continued to move. Although I 1028 00:52:47.360 --> 00:52:49.599 wrote down the spread, I guess it was a joke. 1029 00:52:49.679 --> 00:52:51.360 I wrote to my diary at eight and a half, 1030 00:52:51.800 --> 00:52:56.079 we're up to nine and a half goddamn points that 1031 00:52:56.159 --> 00:52:58.480 they're laying in Tennessee, Longhorn. 1032 00:52:58.360 --> 00:53:01.320 Take it away, much take away here. This is the 1033 00:53:01.400 --> 00:53:04.639 free square. There's no reason to ever there's no reason 1034 00:53:04.719 --> 00:53:07.440 to bet on Tennessee. They you know, we thought we 1035 00:53:07.519 --> 00:53:10.239 had the dead coach bounce didn't happen. Then if it's 1036 00:53:10.239 --> 00:53:14.400 not gonna happen, then congratulations, NFL betters. You have a 1037 00:53:14.519 --> 00:53:18.000 free square to bet against this Tennessee team for the 1038 00:53:18.119 --> 00:53:20.719 rest of the goddamn season. Because here's what's gonna happen. 1039 00:53:20.760 --> 00:53:24.280 They're they're gonna keep losing. They're inth on offense, they're 1040 00:53:24.320 --> 00:53:28.920 gonna quit on defense. Jeffrey Simmons their best offensive player out, 1041 00:53:30.360 --> 00:53:34.760 the cornerback they signed from Kansas City snead out. They're starting. Look, 1042 00:53:34.840 --> 00:53:36.519 the quit has happened. This is this is how the 1043 00:53:36.679 --> 00:53:38.760 this is how this goes. When you are a one 1044 00:53:38.840 --> 00:53:41.519 in seventeen and you're two and six against the spread 1045 00:53:41.800 --> 00:53:44.039 and things just keep going to ship, it's just gonna 1046 00:53:44.519 --> 00:53:46.679 just steam roll downhill for you. Now you got a 1047 00:53:46.719 --> 00:53:49.840 team coming in with Harball who is uh they are 1048 00:53:49.920 --> 00:53:52.239 they're five and three. They had they had a hiccup 1049 00:53:52.280 --> 00:53:54.920 there for the last the last month where they where 1050 00:53:54.920 --> 00:53:58.400 they it got derailed for for a little bit. Harball 1051 00:53:58.440 --> 00:54:01.840 got it right back on track. Joe Walt came back. 1052 00:54:01.920 --> 00:54:04.920 That solidified the offensive line enough. They still got some injuries, 1053 00:54:04.920 --> 00:54:07.079 but enough for a Harball team to get it to 1054 00:54:07.159 --> 00:54:10.400 get it going. And then and then the kicker for me, 1055 00:54:10.519 --> 00:54:13.119 and why why I'm so heavy on the Chargers is 1056 00:54:13.239 --> 00:54:18.519 Harball is five and oh going going west to east 1057 00:54:19.880 --> 00:54:22.159 as a favorite, like this is just a sweet spot 1058 00:54:22.199 --> 00:54:24.719 for him as a Charger. Five and oh is a 1059 00:54:24.840 --> 00:54:27.199 Charger And you might be like, well, that's not that's 1060 00:54:27.239 --> 00:54:29.119 not a lot. That's just as a Charger. Well in 1061 00:54:29.239 --> 00:54:32.880 his career going back to San fran and the Chargers 1062 00:54:33.440 --> 00:54:36.920 east to West or sorry, west to East as a 1063 00:54:37.039 --> 00:54:39.760 favorite fifteen to four against the spread, like he just 1064 00:54:39.880 --> 00:54:42.880 has and he's a great and it makes sense logically 1065 00:54:42.880 --> 00:54:46.079 because he's a great coach. He understands these situational spots 1066 00:54:46.079 --> 00:54:48.239 and knows how to how to prepare his team the 1067 00:54:48.320 --> 00:54:51.599 proper way. Not let them have that that lull that 1068 00:54:51.920 --> 00:54:54.719 whatever whatever it is that teams go east to west 1069 00:54:54.760 --> 00:54:58.280 to east and have that that you know, lackluster effort. 1070 00:54:58.519 --> 00:55:00.880 He kicks. He gets some out of it. So it's 1071 00:55:00.920 --> 00:55:05.320 just a smash squad. Yeah, And whatever he does, it's working. 1072 00:55:05.719 --> 00:55:08.440 Keep doing it. Take the free square. It's under ten. 1073 00:55:08.599 --> 00:55:10.840 This is just I mean, they're gonna win by twenty. 1074 00:55:11.000 --> 00:55:12.880 Oh you know what, since I don't. I don't have 1075 00:55:13.280 --> 00:55:15.639 any sounders this week. I don't have any danger zones, 1076 00:55:15.760 --> 00:55:19.239 I don't have any big dicks. So on no, I'm 1077 00:55:19.480 --> 00:55:21.840 I'm hitting the ladder. I'm hitting the ladder, and I'm 1078 00:55:21.880 --> 00:55:23.920 still challenging you to find my ladder. Drop that that 1079 00:55:24.159 --> 00:55:27.320 that we can use. But I'm laddering this up. What's 1080 00:55:27.360 --> 00:55:34.800 the current line? You're you pick whatever you want as 1081 00:55:34.840 --> 00:55:36.920 a drop. You do whatever you want, and we'll get 1082 00:55:36.960 --> 00:55:40.599 that at some point going forward. But I want a ladder. 1083 00:55:40.679 --> 00:55:43.119 This to one unit on the chargers at the current 1084 00:55:43.199 --> 00:55:46.719 line and then I want I want half units on 1085 00:55:47.119 --> 00:55:50.960 two ladder rungs up, so if we need to do 1086 00:55:51.000 --> 00:55:51.679 it later, we can. 1087 00:55:51.840 --> 00:55:56.760 But yeah, I'll get to the second. So I don't 1088 00:55:56.840 --> 00:55:58.519 have on the board for the ladder. 1089 00:56:02.000 --> 00:56:05.840 They're gonna win by twenty, so it's it's it's fine letter. 1090 00:56:05.559 --> 00:56:07.800 All right. I'll look it up for a second, all right, Okay, 1091 00:56:08.039 --> 00:56:09.039 so I don't have a lot. 1092 00:56:09.119 --> 00:56:11.239 I think. I think thirteen and a half and sixteen 1093 00:56:11.280 --> 00:56:16.440 and a half are a good good letter notches, all right. 1094 00:56:17.719 --> 00:56:21.320 Like the power rankings have the charges here, man, the 1095 00:56:21.679 --> 00:56:24.800 numbers can't catch up. They can't catch up, like and 1096 00:56:25.079 --> 00:56:27.880 I think about power Ringkings. Now, I've never had a 1097 00:56:28.039 --> 00:56:31.039 team graded as lowest Tennessee, which is weird because they 1098 00:56:31.039 --> 00:56:33.880 actually have one win, but they're so in aft on 1099 00:56:33.920 --> 00:56:38.519 offense they it defies logic, honestly. And look, this is 1100 00:56:38.599 --> 00:56:41.440 not a great matchup. Well it's a it's a decent 1101 00:56:41.519 --> 00:56:44.800 matchup for your boy Herbs. He gains a point, but 1102 00:56:44.800 --> 00:56:46.320 it's not a great matchup with the running game. But 1103 00:56:46.480 --> 00:56:48.519 it's not a good matchup. It's just a flat matchup 1104 00:56:48.519 --> 00:56:50.840 all the way around for Tennessee, which means they're gonna 1105 00:56:50.840 --> 00:56:52.800 do what they're gonna do, which they average thirteen points 1106 00:56:52.800 --> 00:56:53.079 a game. 1107 00:56:53.679 --> 00:56:56.559 Dude, they're starting with that. Look like, here's the deal, 1108 00:56:57.199 --> 00:56:59.920 cam Ward and God bless him, like this this is 1109 00:57:00.280 --> 00:57:02.039 this is the worst he's ever gonna look in his career. 1110 00:57:02.199 --> 00:57:04.519 So he just he'll be better, but we hope. So 1111 00:57:05.199 --> 00:57:07.639 he's got to he and when they go three rod 1112 00:57:07.679 --> 00:57:12.239 receiver set him a rookie is two of the three 1113 00:57:12.280 --> 00:57:17.400 receivers are fucking rookies? Like, how was it? This can't happen. 1114 00:57:17.519 --> 00:57:21.719 This just cannot abide. You cannot do this to this 1115 00:57:21.920 --> 00:57:25.119 will not aid. This will not abide in the NFL. 1116 00:57:25.239 --> 00:57:28.480 You how do you put your number one pick for 1117 00:57:28.719 --> 00:57:32.639 your future of your franchise and you roll out this bullship? 1118 00:57:33.000 --> 00:57:34.679 This is god awful man. 1119 00:57:36.079 --> 00:57:39.679 Yeah, I mean I've got I do have tennis as 1120 00:57:39.880 --> 00:57:42.159 scoring nineteen in this game. I don't know how that happened. 1121 00:57:43.960 --> 00:57:44.119 Six. 1122 00:57:44.559 --> 00:57:49.079 It's a Harbert actually throws the pick six this week. Yeah, 1123 00:57:49.280 --> 00:57:51.239 but it won't matter. They'll still win by twenty. 1124 00:57:51.639 --> 00:57:54.360 Forty three and a half is the total I've got 1125 00:57:54.440 --> 00:57:56.239 it going over. There's lots of weather coming in. I 1126 00:57:56.239 --> 00:57:58.400 don't trust that total at all. I think this is 1127 00:57:58.440 --> 00:58:00.719 gonna be nasty now for what it's for what it's 1128 00:58:00.760 --> 00:58:04.440 worth before the buy home dog, which that's what Tennessee 1129 00:58:04.559 --> 00:58:10.280 is fifty against the spread. However, I did look up. 1130 00:58:10.360 --> 00:58:12.840 I was like, okay, but what about big home dogs 1131 00:58:12.960 --> 00:58:14.960 for the buy like, does that make a difference? It 1132 00:58:15.039 --> 00:58:17.559 absolutely does. That cuts down to fifty to fifty. So 1133 00:58:17.679 --> 00:58:20.119 it's basically Quinn flip pick at that. If it's seven 1134 00:58:20.199 --> 00:58:22.880 or more. I'm not scared of that at all either. 1135 00:58:23.480 --> 00:58:25.880 I would link with you with LA. I don't trust 1136 00:58:25.880 --> 00:58:27.880 my numbers saying it's gonna go over. I don't see 1137 00:58:27.920 --> 00:58:29.400 how Tennessee scores nineteen points. 1138 00:58:30.039 --> 00:58:33.199 I think seventy percent chance of win, chance of rain, 1139 00:58:33.199 --> 00:58:35.920 excuse me, and chance to win at least the seventy 1140 00:58:35.960 --> 00:58:37.400 percent chance to win. At least. 1141 00:58:37.960 --> 00:58:42.199 It's the hurricane remnants coming off that too, So will 1142 00:58:42.280 --> 00:58:44.840 it will be win, it will be rained, it'll be nasty. 1143 00:58:45.719 --> 00:58:48.440 The Chargers are built to play with that with their running. 1144 00:58:48.199 --> 00:58:50.760 Game, I know, but people don't think that. That's the thing. 1145 00:58:50.920 --> 00:58:52.880 I think that people think, oh man, that's a West 1146 00:58:52.920 --> 00:58:55.800 Coast team coming coming to the cold and the rain, 1147 00:58:56.079 --> 00:58:59.039 Like no, that's what Harball built his team for this, 1148 00:58:59.239 --> 00:59:01.599 Like they're gonna they're gonna shit stomp this team in 1149 00:59:01.639 --> 00:59:01.960 the ring. 1150 00:59:02.920 --> 00:59:05.639 I've got the Chargers scoring in twenty seven, so I 1151 00:59:05.719 --> 00:59:08.400 think that's probably holding true. I don't say how Tennessee 1152 00:59:08.440 --> 00:59:10.639 gets to nineteen at all, so you're probably. 1153 00:59:10.400 --> 00:59:13.159 Right twenty seven to ten and I cash all ladders. 1154 00:59:13.760 --> 00:59:16.559 Yeah, I think you're probably right on that one. All right, 1155 00:59:16.639 --> 00:59:21.239 Let's move on to those the Detroit Alliance holders in 1156 00:59:21.400 --> 00:59:26.159 those Minnesota Vikings another team. Do they have a quarterback? 1157 00:59:26.360 --> 00:59:29.239 I don't know. I don't know. Let's see on the 1158 00:59:29.280 --> 00:59:31.079 preseason lines on this one, because I did grade it 1159 00:59:31.159 --> 00:59:33.079 with your boy JJ McCarthy in. 1160 00:59:33.119 --> 00:59:34.280 There, so well he's in there. 1161 00:59:34.800 --> 00:59:41.719 Fair. Yeah, I had them five point favorites. Vegas had 1162 00:59:41.760 --> 00:59:44.320 them four and a half point favorites. So I'm gonna 1163 00:59:44.320 --> 00:59:46.760 claim victory here because Detroit's eight and a half point 1164 00:59:46.800 --> 00:59:50.440 favorites now, so we were both off considerably. However, I 1165 00:59:50.599 --> 00:59:54.840 was closer to right than Vegas was. It's just it's 1166 00:59:54.880 --> 00:59:59.199 another actually actually just like eight point seventy five at 1167 00:59:59.239 --> 01:00:01.800 this point, lots of nines are starting to pop, and 1168 01:00:01.840 --> 01:00:03.880 eight and a halfs a heavy juice. It's moving to nine. 1169 01:00:03.880 --> 01:00:07.559 That's my point, boys and girls, Longhorn tells how your 1170 01:00:07.639 --> 01:00:11.719 Minnesota Vikings are gonna start their march towards their division titles. 1171 01:00:11.760 --> 01:00:12.480 I think you had them. 1172 01:00:14.760 --> 01:00:17.440 Yeah, it's not gonna happen. This is this is jump. 1173 01:00:17.760 --> 01:00:20.039 This is jumping off point. This is jumping off point. 1174 01:00:20.079 --> 01:00:21.639 I'm heavy, heavy. 1175 01:00:22.480 --> 01:00:23.199 Four weeks ago. 1176 01:00:23.280 --> 01:00:25.800 But all right, yeah it was it's I mean yeah, 1177 01:00:25.840 --> 01:00:28.559 when he looked like shit, like that's what we can 1178 01:00:28.639 --> 01:00:30.639 review my bad calls at the end of the year. 1179 01:00:30.639 --> 01:00:35.679 It's fine, let's just let it play out. Yeah, Detroit, 1180 01:00:35.840 --> 01:00:38.119 this is this is just such a smash Detroit spot. 1181 01:00:38.159 --> 01:00:40.039 And like I've said in the past, and I'm riding 1182 01:00:40.119 --> 01:00:43.679 these waves. I'm done trying to like get cute, trying 1183 01:00:43.719 --> 01:00:47.199 to find perfect spots to go against a way like what, no, 1184 01:00:47.480 --> 01:00:49.599 when's the wave gonna crash? I'm gonna catch you. I'm 1185 01:00:49.679 --> 01:00:51.960 done with this ship. I'm riding these fucking waves out. 1186 01:00:52.079 --> 01:00:54.079 That's gonna be my new thing. You gotta have a 1187 01:00:54.159 --> 01:00:56.599 reason to bet against Detroit. You definitely gotta have a 1188 01:00:56.639 --> 01:01:00.519 reason to bet against them at home. Seventy ross the board, 1189 01:01:00.559 --> 01:01:03.360 no matter what metric you're looking at, there seventy ats 1190 01:01:03.920 --> 01:01:09.559 team and all the reasons in this game point to me, 1191 01:01:09.840 --> 01:01:13.280 fading Minnesota. You got Christian Darris a their left tackle, 1192 01:01:13.400 --> 01:01:16.159 all Pro left tackle out, and we've seen around this 1193 01:01:16.280 --> 01:01:21.079 league this gets so understated how important a true all 1194 01:01:21.159 --> 01:01:23.880 pro left tackle is. We see it with we see 1195 01:01:23.920 --> 01:01:28.159 it with the Giants. Huh you No, not by me, 1196 01:01:28.280 --> 01:01:30.480 but it gets it gets undervided around the league. We've 1197 01:01:30.519 --> 01:01:31.679 seen it with what's the team? 1198 01:01:31.719 --> 01:01:35.960 We just of the season. People don't pay attention. It 1199 01:01:36.119 --> 01:01:38.159 just gets lost in the like, oh, this guy's out. 1200 01:01:38.159 --> 01:01:40.400 Who cares? There's a million plays, Like people get to 1201 01:01:40.480 --> 01:01:43.199 sensitized to injuries. Like early on it was like, oh 1202 01:01:43.320 --> 01:01:45.360 my god, this guy's out, but like by week five 1203 01:01:45.400 --> 01:01:47.239 they're like, yeah, everybody I know. 1204 01:01:47.320 --> 01:01:50.159 But but even with me, who gets into the rosters, 1205 01:01:50.239 --> 01:01:53.320 Like even I'm amazed at how the difference between a 1206 01:01:53.440 --> 01:01:56.800 true all Pro left tackle for whatever reason, it's Baltimore stop. 1207 01:01:57.480 --> 01:01:58.280 Is that possible? 1208 01:01:59.000 --> 01:02:02.360 Can Yeah? I think you got it because Miami can't score. 1209 01:02:03.079 --> 01:02:05.079 But yeah, like when your left eckles out and he's 1210 01:02:05.079 --> 01:02:08.599 an All Pro, it's just disaster time. Detroit is getting 1211 01:02:08.639 --> 01:02:11.960 three players back in the secondary branch off of the 1212 01:02:12.159 --> 01:02:18.760 suspension for for beating the fuck out of Juju the 1213 01:02:18.880 --> 01:02:21.320 other safety is coming back off of injury, and of 1214 01:02:21.400 --> 01:02:23.880 course Terry and Arnold are cornerback who's not good. But 1215 01:02:24.320 --> 01:02:27.559 I mean it's he's a starter at least, So there's that, 1216 01:02:30.119 --> 01:02:33.760 and let's see, Yeah, there's everything points to Detroit. Let's 1217 01:02:33.760 --> 01:02:36.719 just leave it at that, and you've lost probably the 1218 01:02:37.039 --> 01:02:39.800 the teaser spot if it's if it's at nine in 1219 01:02:39.880 --> 01:02:42.239 most books, you you know, you lost being able to 1220 01:02:42.280 --> 01:02:43.880 tease them down to the two and a half. But 1221 01:02:44.840 --> 01:02:47.719 who knows, maybe people will come in on Minnesota and 1222 01:02:47.800 --> 01:02:51.559 maybe they'll respect the defense who's not that's not been 1223 01:02:51.679 --> 01:02:55.679 as good. So I don't know. Remember we saw we 1224 01:02:55.840 --> 01:02:59.559 saw Detroit beat the fuck out of this Minnesota team 1225 01:02:59.639 --> 01:03:03.360 last year with Sam Darnold with the season on the 1226 01:03:03.480 --> 01:03:06.719 line for Minnesota and Detroit just blew their doors off. 1227 01:03:06.800 --> 01:03:08.760 So like, it's just come on this now that is 1228 01:03:08.840 --> 01:03:12.400 Jabs ghost. Now it's JJ McCarthy. You can get the 1229 01:03:12.440 --> 01:03:14.239 fuck out of here, like and watch this be the 1230 01:03:14.320 --> 01:03:16.840 one time that that JJ McCarthy plays his fucking best 1231 01:03:16.920 --> 01:03:20.079 game and keeps it and just fucks me all which 1232 01:03:20.119 --> 01:03:22.800 way he's gonna suck all year, continue to suck out 1233 01:03:22.840 --> 01:03:24.519 of this game and plays this one balls out Game 1234 01:03:24.559 --> 01:03:26.320 of the Year. No, I don't think so. Detroit wins 1235 01:03:26.400 --> 01:03:28.159 by ten plus, all. 1236 01:03:28.119 --> 01:03:30.079 Right, So I got your ladder results in here. So 1237 01:03:30.119 --> 01:03:31.639 you said thirteen and a half and six and a half, 1238 01:03:33.079 --> 01:03:36.480 thirteen and a half half a unit, yeah, one thirty 1239 01:03:36.519 --> 01:03:39.199 eight six and a half half unit plus one. 1240 01:03:40.360 --> 01:03:41.320 Okay, yeah, I like that. 1241 01:03:41.639 --> 01:03:44.760 I like that, all right. Yeah, So if they went 1242 01:03:44.840 --> 01:03:47.079 by twenty, you clean the fuck up, all right? And 1243 01:03:47.159 --> 01:03:48.960 this one I don't have anything, but I do have. 1244 01:03:49.519 --> 01:03:51.280 You said you gotta have a reason, you gotta go. 1245 01:03:51.480 --> 01:03:53.400 You gott a fucking reason to bet I'm in this. 1246 01:03:53.440 --> 01:03:56.360 I'll give you two fucking reasons right here. Since twenty 1247 01:03:56.400 --> 01:03:59.920 twenty one, coming off the bot in your home fan 1248 01:04:00.679 --> 01:04:04.119 twenty one, twenty seven and two forty three point eight 1249 01:04:04.280 --> 01:04:09.960 percent ats since when since twenty twenty one post covids 1250 01:04:10.039 --> 01:04:14.119 in this new NFL crazy era. And then I said, okay, 1251 01:04:14.239 --> 01:04:15.400 what about big favorites? 1252 01:04:15.559 --> 01:04:16.679 What about big favorites? 1253 01:04:17.360 --> 01:04:19.320 So since twenty twenty one, coming off the by home 1254 01:04:19.400 --> 01:04:23.320 favorite of seven or more even worse, eight twelve and 1255 01:04:23.400 --> 01:04:26.920 two ats forty percent. Now, if you have Detroit lefting 1256 01:04:26.960 --> 01:04:31.199 your survivor twenty two and oh, straight up, that's pretty good. 1257 01:04:31.599 --> 01:04:32.360 That's pretty good. 1258 01:04:32.599 --> 01:04:37.239 So, yeah, they ain't losing now, they're not gonna lose. 1259 01:04:37.960 --> 01:04:40.280 But if there's ever a spot that we keep me 1260 01:04:40.360 --> 01:04:44.480 off of betting something, definitely fair enough, fair enough favorite 1261 01:04:44.480 --> 01:04:46.840 for ball. That's the only reason why I don't have 1262 01:04:46.920 --> 01:04:50.000 no I have no reason to bet on Minnesota. That's 1263 01:04:50.000 --> 01:04:51.480 the only reason why I would not bet Detroit. 1264 01:04:52.519 --> 01:04:55.360 Oh JJ O little JJ. 1265 01:04:55.320 --> 01:04:58.920 He's coming. He's coming from vengeance baby. All right, moving 1266 01:04:58.960 --> 01:05:03.880 on to those New York football giants, their hustling Sand 1267 01:05:04.000 --> 01:05:09.280 Francisco forty nine ers. Let's see, in the preseason this one, I. 1268 01:05:09.480 --> 01:05:16.880 Had San frand minus six. 1269 01:05:19.000 --> 01:05:20.480 Vegas said it three and a half for two and 1270 01:05:20.519 --> 01:05:22.880 a half. Vegas beat me badly on this one. I 1271 01:05:23.000 --> 01:05:26.039 was really down. It wasn't that I was wrong being 1272 01:05:26.079 --> 01:05:27.760 down on the Giants. I was so far high on 1273 01:05:27.880 --> 01:05:30.800 Sant Franz clearly broll. Now we don't have brock Party 1274 01:05:31.079 --> 01:05:34.360 fair enough whatever. I'll take the loss on this one 1275 01:05:36.519 --> 01:05:39.960 two and a half. I think that's still good Longhorn 1276 01:05:40.639 --> 01:05:42.480 and the money, but the money is starting to move 1277 01:05:42.639 --> 01:05:44.199 back on San France. 1278 01:05:44.320 --> 01:05:47.800 Song cause Party for sure out. Yes, he's out, Okay, 1279 01:05:48.440 --> 01:05:48.920 all right. 1280 01:05:50.480 --> 01:05:53.000 Yeah, so it's it's it's really two point seven five 1281 01:05:53.119 --> 01:05:55.800 because it's juice two and a half everywhere, it's probably 1282 01:05:55.840 --> 01:05:57.920 gonna move to the three, back to the three. It 1283 01:05:58.119 --> 01:06:01.519 was to open up the game game time. So if 1284 01:06:01.559 --> 01:06:03.679 you like saying, Frank, get him now, like the Giants. 1285 01:06:03.480 --> 01:06:07.400 Just wait a minute at well, look in this game. 1286 01:06:07.719 --> 01:06:10.119 This this is the head scratcher to me, and I'm 1287 01:06:10.159 --> 01:06:13.519 gonna I'm gonna listen to your handicap. But but I 1288 01:06:14.599 --> 01:06:16.639 I've already talked about during this year. I do not 1289 01:06:16.800 --> 01:06:19.559 bet against San Francisco coming off a loss. It's just 1290 01:06:19.920 --> 01:06:23.039 that's not the spot, and I refuse to do it anymore. 1291 01:06:24.199 --> 01:06:26.000 I think it was the Jacksonville game that I learned 1292 01:06:26.039 --> 01:06:30.360 this hard lesson earlier in this year, and turns out 1293 01:06:30.440 --> 01:06:32.119 it wasn't just a one time thing. This is kind 1294 01:06:32.159 --> 01:06:34.440 of like a thing that they do coming off a loss. 1295 01:06:35.239 --> 01:06:38.519 So yeah, so I'm not doing anymore. So I'm sticking 1296 01:06:38.559 --> 01:06:41.039 to that that But why is it two and a half? 1297 01:06:41.280 --> 01:06:45.320 Like like the Giants who've lost, they lost Skataboo, who's 1298 01:06:45.360 --> 01:06:47.760 kind of like you know me, touchdowns I do have. 1299 01:06:47.880 --> 01:06:50.280 That dude was like their touchdown maker machine. 1300 01:06:50.719 --> 01:06:54.480 So he ran carry How do we replace that holy shit. 1301 01:06:54.679 --> 01:06:56.880 Yeah, how do you replace this ten touchdowns that he had? Like, 1302 01:06:56.960 --> 01:06:59.199 I mean, you got to replace that, So I mean 1303 01:06:59.400 --> 01:07:05.440 like it's it's my handicap. So go ahead, because I 1304 01:07:05.440 --> 01:07:07.280 want to see, like, are you on the New York here? 1305 01:07:08.119 --> 01:07:12.800 Fuck no, san Fran, San Frank, san Fran. Now I've 1306 01:07:12.800 --> 01:07:14.840 got san Frian winning twenty five nineteen. That would be 1307 01:07:14.920 --> 01:07:17.239 under forty eight and a half. I think that's fair enough, 1308 01:07:17.840 --> 01:07:19.719 simple because this is not a good matchup for either 1309 01:07:19.760 --> 01:07:26.360 quarterback Fat Jones or Jackson dark It. But jihns Lou's 1310 01:07:26.400 --> 01:07:28.119 half a point through the running game and again that's 1311 01:07:28.199 --> 01:07:30.320 graded wiskettaball in there the whole time. Again, three hand 1312 01:07:30.320 --> 01:07:32.920 for three point nine yards of carry. He literally didn't 1313 01:07:32.920 --> 01:07:35.559 matter in the running game. However, here's what I will say. 1314 01:07:35.880 --> 01:07:38.320 I've been watching the NFL a long time. What that 1315 01:07:38.440 --> 01:07:41.239 dude did matter was he was the fucking dude for 1316 01:07:41.400 --> 01:07:45.079 that team who was their heart and soul. He's the 1317 01:07:45.159 --> 01:07:47.119 one that kept everybody up in the sideline. I've seen 1318 01:07:47.199 --> 01:07:49.920 so many films of him pomp the guys up, telling 1319 01:07:50.000 --> 01:07:52.880 Jackson that I fucking gotcha fight like that dude was 1320 01:07:52.960 --> 01:07:55.920 literally the heart and soul of that team. So and 1321 01:07:56.000 --> 01:07:58.519 that's for a team that's already dead for all intents 1322 01:07:58.559 --> 01:08:01.880 and purposes, they're dead, is over, it never really started, and. 1323 01:08:01.920 --> 01:08:05.280 They can't stop the run like on on defense they're horrible. 1324 01:08:05.400 --> 01:08:07.480 So yeah, the other part of his handicap, this is 1325 01:08:07.519 --> 01:08:10.000 a c MAT game against two point three two points 1326 01:08:10.039 --> 01:08:12.039 to the BPG. He has got to be a c 1327 01:08:12.199 --> 01:08:14.480 MAT game anytime it's a game, I'm rolling with it 1328 01:08:14.679 --> 01:08:17.560 with San Fran. The Giants are second to last and 1329 01:08:17.600 --> 01:08:22.760 defision and defensive rushing success rate. So this matchup through 1330 01:08:22.800 --> 01:08:25.800 the game script is perfect Mac and their scheme and 1331 01:08:27.479 --> 01:08:29.399 the Giants sucked, so it's the perfect matchup. 1332 01:08:29.600 --> 01:08:33.319 Okay, So so why because it's this line tick to 1333 01:08:33.479 --> 01:08:36.840 three and now it's is a curt and now it's 1334 01:08:36.920 --> 01:08:39.840 down Like they're not these bookies are not our friends. 1335 01:08:39.960 --> 01:08:42.319 They're none of the business giving us free squares and 1336 01:08:42.479 --> 01:08:45.520 free money. What are we missing this? The worries the 1337 01:08:45.600 --> 01:08:48.359 fuck out of me because we're both like slam dunk scent. 1338 01:08:48.560 --> 01:08:50.960 Because it's a bad matchup for Matt Jones. And that's 1339 01:08:50.960 --> 01:08:53.000 the only that's the only part of my handicap that says, 1340 01:08:53.039 --> 01:08:55.640 as long as Pat Jones is to fuck me. I 1341 01:08:55.680 --> 01:08:57.880 feel good about San Frank because the Giants have actually 1342 01:08:57.920 --> 01:09:00.960 been okay against the past, which is why he's. 1343 01:09:01.119 --> 01:09:04.560 He shouldn't matter if they can control the run exactly. 1344 01:09:04.880 --> 01:09:07.960 So I just I don't know. It feels too easy, 1345 01:09:08.039 --> 01:09:10.199 and it makes me. That makes me worried. That's why 1346 01:09:10.199 --> 01:09:11.720 I haven't plugged it in yet because I'm like, what 1347 01:09:11.840 --> 01:09:15.039 am I missing? But yeah, I'm with you. I'm at 1348 01:09:15.079 --> 01:09:18.000 two and a half. Come on, man, that's that's let's 1349 01:09:18.199 --> 01:09:18.720 let's get that. 1350 01:09:19.279 --> 01:09:21.079 Yeah, there's no other way I can play this one again. 1351 01:09:21.760 --> 01:09:23.840 I tease long her Rest got about three point nine 1352 01:09:23.920 --> 01:09:26.560 yards for carry. Look, he's a jag. As far as 1353 01:09:26.760 --> 01:09:28.760 running back. I hope that he comes back. I hope. 1354 01:09:28.800 --> 01:09:31.439 And now, this injury was a lot worse than what 1355 01:09:31.560 --> 01:09:34.159 they thought it was at the beginning. It ruptured attendon. 1356 01:09:35.199 --> 01:09:36.880 It tore a bunch of shit up in there. 1357 01:09:37.039 --> 01:09:39.880 Of course, it fucking ruptured tend as it was turned sideways. 1358 01:09:40.159 --> 01:09:44.399 He already ran like a five five forty. So oh, look, 1359 01:09:44.439 --> 01:09:45.079 I love the kid. 1360 01:09:46.000 --> 01:09:48.800 He'll still be fine. And but like I said at 1361 01:09:48.840 --> 01:09:50.439 the beginning of the year, he has. 1362 01:09:50.359 --> 01:09:52.000 To be factor in the passing game. 1363 01:09:52.560 --> 01:09:55.199 He has to be he has to be a one 1364 01:09:55.199 --> 01:09:58.920 to two punch with another Jamar Gibbs type guy. Like, 1365 01:09:59.079 --> 01:10:02.520 if you get the the other guy, even coming off injuries, 1366 01:10:02.520 --> 01:10:05.199 Scattaboy's gonna be that dude. You're gonna have something there. 1367 01:10:05.239 --> 01:10:06.880 But they don't. They don't have the other guy. 1368 01:10:07.560 --> 01:10:09.960 Well that's and that's the thing that makes me more 1369 01:10:10.000 --> 01:10:11.600 confident in San frank because it's a bad matchup for 1370 01:10:11.720 --> 01:10:13.319 dark in the first place. But secondly, if you look 1371 01:10:13.319 --> 01:10:15.560 at what Scatabo's where his most effective plays were, it 1372 01:10:15.680 --> 01:10:18.319 was all in passing. If he looked at in Arizona State, 1373 01:10:18.880 --> 01:10:20.680 I mean, I know he ran great Arizona State, but 1374 01:10:20.800 --> 01:10:21.760 remember the Texas game. 1375 01:10:22.000 --> 01:10:24.720 He's fucking incredible in the passing game. Incredibly. 1376 01:10:24.760 --> 01:10:27.680 When did that game turn? When Scatibo caught that long 1377 01:10:27.800 --> 01:10:30.680 fucking ball down the sideline and all of a sudden, 1378 01:10:30.720 --> 01:10:33.359 Arizona State got back in that fucking game. And then 1379 01:10:33.439 --> 01:10:35.319 he started to roll against one of the best rushing 1380 01:10:35.359 --> 01:10:37.479 defenses in all the country. Against Texast he couldn't do 1381 01:10:37.560 --> 01:10:40.159 shit for three quarters, but he caught that one ball 1382 01:10:40.359 --> 01:10:43.560 a third whatever. Then after that the momentum started to turn. 1383 01:10:43.640 --> 01:10:46.760 He started getting legs underneath him, and that's but him 1384 01:10:46.800 --> 01:10:49.560 in the passing game is absolutely an X factor. They're 1385 01:10:49.600 --> 01:10:52.439 gonna miss him terribly, and that jackson darscan missed terribly 1386 01:10:52.479 --> 01:10:54.640 in that it's it's not a good thing for young 1387 01:10:54.720 --> 01:10:56.880 quarterback to lose his safety to liking like that. So yeah, 1388 01:10:57.159 --> 01:10:59.319 I think first game without him, they're gonna struggle. 1389 01:10:59.439 --> 01:11:03.439 But well, since they're gonna win about three maybe four 1390 01:11:03.600 --> 01:11:05.560 games this year, they'll have a good chance to go 1391 01:11:05.640 --> 01:11:08.560 get a running back in the draft another like another. 1392 01:11:08.319 --> 01:11:11.399 One probably, So all right, let's move on to my 1393 01:11:11.840 --> 01:11:17.640 lost Vegas or our lost Vegas Raiders, my Jacksonville Jaguars. 1394 01:11:17.880 --> 01:11:20.760 You can have both these teams, all right. 1395 01:11:21.000 --> 01:11:25.920 In the preseason, I have Jacksonville minus three here, Vegas 1396 01:11:26.039 --> 01:11:29.560 in Las Vegas minus one and a half. So I 1397 01:11:29.800 --> 01:11:32.840 was right. Vegas is strong because it's actually Jacksonville minus three, 1398 01:11:33.039 --> 01:11:37.840 exactly the number. So thank you on that one. Now, 1399 01:11:38.640 --> 01:11:41.279 this is ticking down, though, Longhorn, money coming in, money 1400 01:11:41.319 --> 01:11:47.560 coming in on the Raiders everywhere's plus three. It's minus 1401 01:11:47.640 --> 01:11:51.079 one sixteen or more minus one twenty. It's already two 1402 01:11:51.119 --> 01:11:53.479 and a half at circa. Some of the Sharper books 1403 01:11:53.479 --> 01:11:55.479 are already moving to two and a half, two and 1404 01:11:55.520 --> 01:11:58.119 a half and half kings money coming down the Raiders 1405 01:11:59.159 --> 01:11:59.880 many coming into the. 1406 01:12:03.119 --> 01:12:06.520 I mean, which number do I get, because like, I 1407 01:12:06.600 --> 01:12:08.800 think I'm gonna let this just be a numbers play 1408 01:12:08.840 --> 01:12:11.079 for me, because I don't know what the fuck I get. 1409 01:12:13.119 --> 01:12:15.560 I know what that's the I know currently which at 1410 01:12:15.640 --> 01:12:18.640 three you're you're kind of like good luck, but like 1411 01:12:19.319 --> 01:12:20.680 it opened at three and a half, and some of 1412 01:12:20.720 --> 01:12:23.720 the contests at three and a half locked currently some 1413 01:12:23.880 --> 01:12:28.239 of the lines are two and a half Jacksonville. Just dude, 1414 01:12:28.359 --> 01:12:29.880 I mean, I think I've just let the line Like 1415 01:12:29.960 --> 01:12:32.000 if at two, at two and a half, I guess Jacksonville, 1416 01:12:32.000 --> 01:12:34.600 at three and a half, I guess Vegas. I just 1417 01:12:34.640 --> 01:12:37.520 don't how do you trust either one of these teams? Like, like, 1418 01:12:37.800 --> 01:12:41.399 would it shock me if Vegas comes out after a 1419 01:12:41.479 --> 01:12:44.680 bye figures out that that that oh yeah, remember that 1420 01:12:44.760 --> 01:12:49.520 guy we drafted that that gent game. Okay, But I'm 1421 01:12:49.560 --> 01:12:51.279 just specifically with the Raids because like the jack I 1422 01:12:51.319 --> 01:12:53.520 think we know we're gonna get with Jacksonville a quarterback 1423 01:12:53.560 --> 01:12:56.640 that's that's overrated, that that's gonna make some mental mistakes 1424 01:12:56.680 --> 01:13:00.600 and just kind of like leave you one any more. Okay, 1425 01:13:01.000 --> 01:13:06.520 fair enough, okay, fair enough. But he's in the game. 1426 01:13:06.600 --> 01:13:08.319 He's gonna leave you one any more. He's gonna make 1427 01:13:08.359 --> 01:13:11.279 some miss like just head scratching mistake, some miss throws. 1428 01:13:11.720 --> 01:13:13.319 I think I know what I'm gonna get from Jacksonville. 1429 01:13:13.359 --> 01:13:16.239 But what if what if off the buy that Pete 1430 01:13:16.279 --> 01:13:19.479 Carroll you know, gets this running game going. Gino Smith 1431 01:13:19.560 --> 01:13:22.439 remembers that he's not the like thirtieth best quarterback in 1432 01:13:22.439 --> 01:13:25.239 the league, and he's more like the fifteenth. Then then 1433 01:13:25.279 --> 01:13:28.039 you've got value. Now the Max Crosby thing, I don't 1434 01:13:28.960 --> 01:13:33.279 where let me go back to the is he's still questionable? 1435 01:13:33.439 --> 01:13:33.960 He is? 1436 01:13:35.039 --> 01:13:40.359 He is questionable, they man, he I think so too. 1437 01:13:40.479 --> 01:13:43.119 So like look at three three and a half, I'm 1438 01:13:43.159 --> 01:13:47.119 gonna probably bang in the Raiders at two and a half. 1439 01:13:47.399 --> 01:13:49.960 You can talk me into Jacksonville. Yeah, if you can 1440 01:13:50.000 --> 01:13:53.680 talk under a field goal you want. You don't gotta 1441 01:13:53.680 --> 01:13:55.840 twist my arm to go against this shitty ass Raiders 1442 01:13:55.920 --> 01:13:58.119 team a whole lot. So I'm kind of gonna let 1443 01:13:58.159 --> 01:14:01.199 the number dictate my which way I go on this one? 1444 01:14:01.279 --> 01:14:03.520 Most savious, all right. 1445 01:14:03.560 --> 01:14:06.119 So no call by the power ringings here. I've got 1446 01:14:06.239 --> 01:14:07.920 it going over. The forty four and a half total 1447 01:14:08.119 --> 01:14:10.079 I actually feel kind of good about that one. Now 1448 01:14:10.199 --> 01:14:13.720 the BBG has Jacksonville winning twenty six to twenty, I 1449 01:14:13.760 --> 01:14:16.760 don't know. So it's literally, I don't know how many 1450 01:14:16.760 --> 01:14:19.800 of these I've ever had. It's literally a flat matchup 1451 01:14:19.840 --> 01:14:22.920 across the BPG. Both quarterbacks, both running backs. We're basically 1452 01:14:22.920 --> 01:14:24.960 gonna get what we get. So this is more of 1453 01:14:25.000 --> 01:14:27.079 a spot play for me here. That's why I like 1454 01:14:27.119 --> 01:14:27.600 the Raiders. 1455 01:14:28.920 --> 01:14:31.760 You got some trends, got some trends. 1456 01:14:32.520 --> 01:14:35.000 They're both coming off of buy so I think, Okay, 1457 01:14:35.399 --> 01:14:38.079 first off, what DoD the trends say? Secondly, does it 1458 01:14:38.239 --> 01:14:41.760 match up with what we're presented from a cut because 1459 01:14:42.520 --> 01:14:46.239 the BUYE to me is all about number one your roster, 1460 01:14:46.720 --> 01:14:50.279 number two, well actually number one coaching number two year roster. 1461 01:14:51.760 --> 01:14:55.279 Which coaching staff do I trust to make the adjustments 1462 01:14:55.560 --> 01:14:57.840 off of? By more the guy that's been doing it 1463 01:14:57.920 --> 01:15:00.479 for sixty fucking years or they got and it says 1464 01:15:00.840 --> 01:15:04.439 duebo and just fucking got there. Probably he goes for 1465 01:15:04.520 --> 01:15:05.119 sixty years. 1466 01:15:05.720 --> 01:15:05.920 Yeah. 1467 01:15:06.600 --> 01:15:09.880 Secondly, I got like you mentioned a veteran quarterback who's 1468 01:15:09.960 --> 01:15:13.880 played like absolute dog shit. Gina Smith is the twenty 1469 01:15:13.960 --> 01:15:17.720 eighth CPOA plus or EPA quarterback. By the way, we're 1470 01:15:17.720 --> 01:15:20.079 talking about Browning and Flacco not being too far apart 1471 01:15:20.159 --> 01:15:23.760 or you know, Browning's twenty eighth Flaco or brownis twenty nine, 1472 01:15:23.800 --> 01:15:27.680 Flacoes thirtyeth great Mico always like wins games and puts 1473 01:15:27.720 --> 01:15:28.720 up shitty numbers. 1474 01:15:28.479 --> 01:15:30.840 Like Faco so much. But like that's why you can't 1475 01:15:30.880 --> 01:15:31.840 always just go by that. 1476 01:15:32.600 --> 01:15:34.720 Well no, but like not one metric, but still like 1477 01:15:34.840 --> 01:15:37.920 he wins games, but he just never puts up good numbers. 1478 01:15:38.000 --> 01:15:43.119 It's just his thing. But either way, but coming off 1479 01:15:43.159 --> 01:15:46.039 of bye and you're the away favorite since twenty twenty one, 1480 01:15:46.560 --> 01:15:49.920 twelve fourteen and two forty six point two percent, not 1481 01:15:50.079 --> 01:15:53.920 a majorly strong trend but decent enough. But coming off 1482 01:15:53.960 --> 01:15:55.920 the Bay and you're the home dog, which is Raiders 1483 01:15:56.439 --> 01:15:58.720 thirteen nine to one fifty nine point one percent. So 1484 01:15:58.800 --> 01:16:01.199 now we've got a negative trend. It's a very positive trend. 1485 01:16:01.640 --> 01:16:05.359 That's plus two points on the Raiders ats and an 1486 01:16:05.399 --> 01:16:07.600 Amazon A four and a half. We're sitting at three, 1487 01:16:08.640 --> 01:16:10.680 look and they're ten at thirteen. Straight up, this is 1488 01:16:10.680 --> 01:16:12.560 absolutely game that I was surprised you didn't have the 1489 01:16:12.600 --> 01:16:14.960 sounder on this, and be honest, absolutely game the Raiders 1490 01:16:15.000 --> 01:16:19.000 could steal. You know, dude games, how. 1491 01:16:18.960 --> 01:16:23.359 Do you hear the sounder with fucking Geno Smith Pete Carroll? 1492 01:16:23.439 --> 01:16:27.000 Well, yes, you know, systems bad, but Pete Carroll should 1493 01:16:27.079 --> 01:16:30.239 be able to make some adjustments through this defense to 1494 01:16:30.359 --> 01:16:32.439 find some way to get better through. 1495 01:16:33.039 --> 01:16:36.159 Remember when I said I'm done trying to guess and 1496 01:16:36.279 --> 01:16:39.840 bet into when the wave is going to crest, I'm 1497 01:16:39.920 --> 01:16:43.239 done with that in this NFL. I mean, look, Baltimore 1498 01:16:43.319 --> 01:16:43.960 is blowing the fuck. 1499 01:16:44.279 --> 01:16:47.600 I guess in both ways because like it's okay which which. 1500 01:16:47.479 --> 01:16:50.000 Wave is right? Which which makes it a stick wave 1501 01:16:50.920 --> 01:16:51.520 that has not. 1502 01:16:51.680 --> 01:16:53.720 Like they have not earned all these wins, is that 1503 01:16:53.840 --> 01:16:57.840 gonna crash? The Raiders haven't exactly earned every loss. 1504 01:16:58.520 --> 01:17:00.680 Which makes it a stay away, which you just don't. 1505 01:17:00.720 --> 01:17:02.319 You just don't. You just don't better, You don't have 1506 01:17:02.439 --> 01:17:03.840 you don't have the better a game unless you're in 1507 01:17:03.880 --> 01:17:05.199 a contest. True. 1508 01:17:06.239 --> 01:17:07.840 I just like the spot here for the Raiders, and. 1509 01:17:08.079 --> 01:17:10.119 And in the contest at three and a half, I'll 1510 01:17:10.199 --> 01:17:13.359 definitely be banging in the Raiders and and watch Geno 1511 01:17:13.640 --> 01:17:16.479 just just spare me to death for three hours and 1512 01:17:16.920 --> 01:17:18.239 and regret my decision. 1513 01:17:18.319 --> 01:17:22.279 You know, just don't spare us into a loss, please God. 1514 01:17:23.039 --> 01:17:25.239 All right, let's move on to talk about spare me 1515 01:17:25.319 --> 01:17:28.600 to death. Jesus Christ. Here we go. Those Los Angeles 1516 01:17:28.720 --> 01:17:32.079 Rams hosting those new old Saints. Oh they got a 1517 01:17:32.119 --> 01:17:34.960 shiny new quarterback. I'm not even going over the preseason lines. 1518 01:17:35.000 --> 01:17:39.039 It's not worth it. H Actually, I do want to 1519 01:17:39.079 --> 01:17:40.640 take a pat Sea just gonna know. I was really 1520 01:17:40.680 --> 01:17:44.159 down on New Orleans. Yeah, it's not worth it, Okay. 1521 01:17:44.800 --> 01:17:46.760 Me and Vegas were so like so far off on 1522 01:17:46.840 --> 01:17:49.000 this one, so, which is excusable. 1523 01:17:49.520 --> 01:17:53.520 It's still probably only like ten, right, twelve the spread? 1524 01:17:54.039 --> 01:17:57.399 Yeah no, no, the preseason, preseason. 1525 01:17:58.720 --> 01:18:02.840 Yeah, yeah and a half okay, yeah yeah, but I 1526 01:18:02.920 --> 01:18:07.640 mean that's still like five points. Yeah, so fourteen points. Uh, 1527 01:18:08.399 --> 01:18:11.359 you can find thirteen and a half a bet online 1528 01:18:11.439 --> 01:18:15.359 heavily juice. I mean, you're basically saying three thirteen point 1529 01:18:15.439 --> 01:18:17.800 seven five. They gotta win about two touchdowns to cover 1530 01:18:17.880 --> 01:18:21.000 all numbers. Long morenan, do you have the Rams covering 1531 01:18:21.119 --> 01:18:24.520 all numbers with the fourteen? I mean, sure, get your 1532 01:18:24.600 --> 01:18:30.199 boy I sucked shuck in his first roadstar in the NFL. 1533 01:18:30.680 --> 01:18:35.840 Well, well it's technically I fucking suck shuck. So you 1534 01:18:35.920 --> 01:18:37.640 gotta you gotta put the flavor in there, and you 1535 01:18:37.720 --> 01:18:40.239 gotta get the extra. Look, it's a it's in Louisiana. 1536 01:18:40.279 --> 01:18:41.720 You got thir a little sauce on it. 1537 01:18:42.000 --> 01:18:44.000 Listening and I was trying to be fucking nice. 1538 01:18:44.439 --> 01:18:46.840 Nah, she ain't listening. She she she knows. He sucks. 1539 01:18:46.920 --> 01:18:49.319 It's it's just a bad This is a bad deal. 1540 01:18:50.600 --> 01:18:53.680 Now listen, I'm just gonna take the rams. I'm banging 1541 01:18:53.720 --> 01:18:55.439 them in. This is this is a new NFL. Take 1542 01:18:55.479 --> 01:18:58.640 the favorites. They're just it's gonna it's gonna run away. You. 1543 01:18:59.520 --> 01:19:01.439 You have to actually pick your spots when you're when 1544 01:19:01.479 --> 01:19:03.279 you're taking dogs in the NFL. Now, you gotta be 1545 01:19:03.399 --> 01:19:06.880 real particular. It's not the old NFL. Uh. We liked Carolina. 1546 01:19:06.960 --> 01:19:09.000 We both kind of like that Carolina dog spot. We 1547 01:19:09.159 --> 01:19:11.680 kind of lean towards the Raiders as a dog spot. 1548 01:19:11.960 --> 01:19:14.880 You just gotta be careful, man. You can't go, oh well, yeah, 1549 01:19:14.920 --> 01:19:18.479 Pittsburgh three and a half three, that's that's just that's 1550 01:19:18.600 --> 01:19:20.720 that's old NFL. Man. We've got to adjust with it. 1551 01:19:20.800 --> 01:19:23.640 As handicappers, you gotta adjust the way the league goes 1552 01:19:24.239 --> 01:19:27.079 and can't just stuck be stuck in our old ways. Uh. 1553 01:19:30.199 --> 01:19:35.159 I mean, look, give me, give me a rocking chair 1554 01:19:35.239 --> 01:19:37.279 and a shotgun, and I'll tell you all about the 1555 01:19:37.359 --> 01:19:41.079 old ways. I love being an old motherfucker. But this 1556 01:19:41.279 --> 01:19:43.680 is money on the line here, man, Money's on the 1557 01:19:43.760 --> 01:19:45.760 line here. We gotta adjust with it. But yeah, so 1558 01:19:45.880 --> 01:19:47.560 I'll be on the I'll be on the ramts for sure. 1559 01:19:48.479 --> 01:19:51.159 But just fuck this game. But like a side note, 1560 01:19:51.520 --> 01:19:56.520 trade deadline is coming up. Why has Kamara not been 1561 01:19:56.600 --> 01:19:59.479 traded yet? I'm not sure. Like, I mean there's some 1562 01:19:59.720 --> 01:20:00.199 there's some. 1563 01:20:00.880 --> 01:20:03.439 Playoff teams comeback betting on the comeback. 1564 01:20:03.640 --> 01:20:05.640 I cannot believe that Kansas City has not made this 1565 01:20:05.760 --> 01:20:08.520 deal yet. Like this is the Kansas City deal that 1566 01:20:08.640 --> 01:20:10.880 we know is coming. It happens all at least do 1567 01:20:10.920 --> 01:20:12.319 it all the time back when they were one of 1568 01:20:12.359 --> 01:20:14.359 the Super Bowls, you know, when they went. 1569 01:20:14.279 --> 01:20:18.359 Antiree like Pacheco two point on older Purchallo, it's the 1570 01:20:18.399 --> 01:20:18.840 same thing. 1571 01:20:19.279 --> 01:20:22.399 Well, Pacheco's hurt and it's never saying yeah. 1572 01:20:22.479 --> 01:20:26.000 So it just just I'm shocked that he has a 1573 01:20:27.000 --> 01:20:29.119 hunt again for the ninth fucking season in row. 1574 01:20:29.560 --> 01:20:31.479 So yeah, I don't waste time on this. It's it's 1575 01:20:31.479 --> 01:20:33.479 I'll give me the give me the Rams. 1576 01:20:34.439 --> 01:20:36.800 Okay, two reasons why I can't go with you here, 1577 01:20:36.920 --> 01:20:38.640 but I'm definitely not beting New Orleans. Don't get a 1578 01:20:38.640 --> 01:20:45.239 twisted you are off. The buy home Favorites is twenty 1579 01:20:45.279 --> 01:20:50.880 twenty one, again twenty seven and two. However, I was like, okay, 1580 01:20:50.960 --> 01:20:54.840 what about a big fucking favorite. Favorites is seven or 1581 01:20:54.880 --> 01:20:58.279 more off? The bye at home is twenty twenty one, 1582 01:20:58.840 --> 01:21:01.279 average line of ten point four. This line's quite a 1583 01:21:01.279 --> 01:21:06.399 bit over that eight and twelve forty percent against the spread. Look, 1584 01:21:06.439 --> 01:21:08.840 it's hard to come off vacation and get up just 1585 01:21:08.880 --> 01:21:10.760 to go beat the shit out of a fucking ten can. 1586 01:21:11.640 --> 01:21:14.479 That's probably the logic behind that. However, I will say this, 1587 01:21:14.600 --> 01:21:17.479 if you haven't used the RAMS in your survivor in 1588 01:21:17.600 --> 01:21:21.720 that scenario, ten point or better favorite twenty two and 1589 01:21:21.840 --> 01:21:24.520 oh straight up Winny by ten point six points per game. 1590 01:21:25.359 --> 01:21:27.119 So they're gonna win this game by ten? 1591 01:21:27.920 --> 01:21:29.079 Do they cover? Do they don't? 1592 01:21:29.319 --> 01:21:32.840 I don't know, but yeah, I can't. I can't go 1593 01:21:33.039 --> 01:21:35.640 with you just because of that trend. However, if you 1594 01:21:35.680 --> 01:21:38.640 do got the rams, Survivor, this is the fucking time 1595 01:21:38.840 --> 01:21:42.880 was the girl's unleash the beast with the Rams? What 1596 01:21:43.039 --> 01:21:44.319 could go wrong? What can go wrong? 1597 01:21:44.439 --> 01:21:48.960 Twenty two? Yeah, I wonder what the have you seen? 1598 01:21:49.039 --> 01:21:50.840 What the circa billions? 1599 01:21:51.319 --> 01:21:53.960 Thing is that they don't ever? Oh how many people 1600 01:21:53.960 --> 01:21:54.239 are low? 1601 01:21:54.399 --> 01:21:55.520 Yeah? How many people are left? 1602 01:21:56.119 --> 01:21:58.119 I can probably get that in a second. Yeah, just't 1603 01:21:58.119 --> 01:22:01.000 they won't release the selection still kickoffs on Sunday? 1604 01:22:01.199 --> 01:22:04.319 Right, Yeah, it turns out this has to be. 1605 01:22:04.359 --> 01:22:07.359 The number one for everybody has the Rams left? If 1606 01:22:07.399 --> 01:22:09.680 the Rams lose this game, that survivor might. 1607 01:22:09.600 --> 01:22:12.560 Be Yeah that ain't they ain't no shit be old 1608 01:22:12.600 --> 01:22:14.079 for me because I'm definitely on the Rams. I got 1609 01:22:14.119 --> 01:22:16.119 them available. I think it's the Rams and the chargers 1610 01:22:16.239 --> 01:22:17.399 probably the highest. 1611 01:22:19.119 --> 01:22:22.079 I don't know, got the chargers can always charge? 1612 01:22:22.119 --> 01:22:25.680 That is no, this is your hardballs chargers. This ain't 1613 01:22:25.720 --> 01:22:28.720 your old chargers. Ain't it's your charge. 1614 01:22:28.760 --> 01:22:33.640 They can't games, Okay, they can and the. 1615 01:22:36.279 --> 01:22:42.479 Special Tennessee is the worst. They're just they're just it's impossible. Yeah, 1616 01:22:43.159 --> 01:22:46.439 it is impossible to lose. I don't want to put 1617 01:22:46.479 --> 01:22:48.760 any bad mojo out there and say something that's gonna 1618 01:22:48.880 --> 01:22:53.000 like just it's almost Yeah, let's we don't how bad 1619 01:22:53.000 --> 01:22:53.199 they are? 1620 01:22:53.720 --> 01:22:56.640 All right, let's move Okay, let's move on to the 1621 01:22:56.720 --> 01:23:01.760 actual game of the week. It's was let's go full 1622 01:23:03.760 --> 01:23:10.039 bills of those Kansas City Chiefs now this one. Okay, 1623 01:23:10.159 --> 01:23:11.880 we do want to look at preseason loss of this one. 1624 01:23:12.800 --> 01:23:15.640 I had Buffalo minus two. Vegas had a minus two 1625 01:23:15.640 --> 01:23:19.520 and a half Vegas because now Kansas City is up 1626 01:23:19.640 --> 01:23:23.159 to minus well, no, they're falling again. 1627 01:23:23.560 --> 01:23:26.319 Okay, one and a half for Ish. 1628 01:23:26.640 --> 01:23:28.760 Yeah, one and a half ish Okay, so let me 1629 01:23:28.800 --> 01:23:31.880 adjust that so Canna City back to the minus one 1630 01:23:31.920 --> 01:23:36.600 and a half Longhorn. I have many, many thoughts in 1631 01:23:36.640 --> 01:23:41.279 this game. I I wanted to slam Buffalo. I'll get 1632 01:23:41.319 --> 01:23:44.760 into why it didn't once I get there. However, what 1633 01:23:44.880 --> 01:23:45.640 do you got on this one? 1634 01:23:46.000 --> 01:23:48.319 Because you because you've been watching the NFL for the 1635 01:23:48.399 --> 01:23:49.279 last seven years, and. 1636 01:23:49.319 --> 01:23:51.359 You you know that I've been watching the NFL for 1637 01:23:51.399 --> 01:23:53.039 the last seve years. I would have slamed Bufalo because 1638 01:23:53.039 --> 01:23:55.159 they owned Kansas City in the regular season, owned them, 1639 01:23:55.640 --> 01:23:56.399 literally own them. 1640 01:23:57.640 --> 01:24:00.640 Well, well you where I'm gonna be. 1641 01:24:00.760 --> 01:24:03.680 Like, literally Patre Rome sucks against his team. 1642 01:24:03.479 --> 01:24:06.880 In the regular season's terrible, Well, then you should take it. 1643 01:24:06.920 --> 01:24:09.039 You should take Buffalo then, because I'm gonna be on 1644 01:24:09.119 --> 01:24:13.039 Kansas City. I'm gonna be on Kansas City. And there's 1645 01:24:13.079 --> 01:24:14.920 there's a couple of reasons why. Number One, we all 1646 01:24:15.000 --> 01:24:19.199 I mean just this is this is a normal my 1647 01:24:19.319 --> 01:24:22.520 homes as a short favorite or dog like this. I'm 1648 01:24:22.560 --> 01:24:24.760 not overthinking these things. I'm just gonna do it, even 1649 01:24:24.800 --> 01:24:27.079 if Buffalo owns them. Fine, you can shake your head. 1650 01:24:27.359 --> 01:24:28.479 You can shake your head all you want. 1651 01:24:28.800 --> 01:24:30.479 You can't, no, I do. 1652 01:24:30.680 --> 01:24:32.760 In the Raider season, sure you're. 1653 01:24:32.439 --> 01:24:37.399 Right now, it's literally like the wildest flipper ever seen in. 1654 01:24:37.600 --> 01:24:44.479 The playoffs that goes the other ways. 1655 01:24:41.680 --> 01:24:44.079 Never thrown an interception versus Kansas City. In the Radiar season, 1656 01:24:44.680 --> 01:24:47.640 Holmes dows a million to Buffalo go to the playoffs. 1657 01:24:47.720 --> 01:24:48.840 It's literally the exact ops. 1658 01:24:49.439 --> 01:24:52.439 So I have I have two things, and I'm glad 1659 01:24:52.439 --> 01:24:54.000 you brought that up because i got two things to 1660 01:24:54.159 --> 01:24:58.800 counter what you're saying. Number One, in the past, the 1661 01:25:00.359 --> 01:25:03.680 Kansay hasn't cared about the regular season as much. They're 1662 01:25:03.840 --> 01:25:07.279 chasing in the regular season right now, they started horrible. 1663 01:25:07.520 --> 01:25:09.760 This is they have to catch Denver. They have to 1664 01:25:09.840 --> 01:25:11.760 get they have to catch Buffalo to get the. 1665 01:25:11.800 --> 01:25:14.600 Mom I'll count that immediately. Because Buffalo has always been 1666 01:25:15.479 --> 01:25:17.159 up there with them towards the number one seed. They've 1667 01:25:17.159 --> 01:25:20.600 always cared about this game. They don't care. I'll grant 1668 01:25:20.680 --> 01:25:23.039 you your general principal. They don't care most of the time. 1669 01:25:23.239 --> 01:25:25.239 They've always cared about this game because they've always known 1670 01:25:25.279 --> 01:25:26.920 Buffalo could take the number one seed away. 1671 01:25:27.800 --> 01:25:29.920 That's fine, but they're not even winning division right now. 1672 01:25:30.199 --> 01:25:31.760 They're not even winning their own division. 1673 01:25:32.319 --> 01:25:34.119 But my point is in this game, they've always had 1674 01:25:34.159 --> 01:25:37.279 the motivation. Buffalo has always kicked the living shit out. 1675 01:25:37.319 --> 01:25:39.520 I remember when you had Kansas City last year on 1676 01:25:39.640 --> 01:25:42.159 a teaser when Buffalo's minus too and it didn't even 1677 01:25:42.159 --> 01:25:44.560 fucking cover by fifteen. 1678 01:25:44.960 --> 01:25:48.239 Okay, fair enough, But like there are no letdown spots 1679 01:25:48.279 --> 01:25:50.000 anymore for Keannessee. They have to They have to like 1680 01:25:50.279 --> 01:25:52.399 full through Ottle every game, which leads to the second 1681 01:25:52.479 --> 01:25:56.560 point that Annie Reid has finally figured out after years 1682 01:25:56.600 --> 01:25:58.880 and years of not ever it just playing old school. 1683 01:25:59.159 --> 01:26:01.560 I don't go for on fourth downs. He's finally caught 1684 01:26:01.600 --> 01:26:02.960 up to the rest of the league. But where I'm 1685 01:26:03.000 --> 01:26:04.439 just gonna go for it on fourth downs on my 1686 01:26:04.520 --> 01:26:07.079 own territory like the rest of the teams do. And 1687 01:26:07.359 --> 01:26:10.960 there's nothing scarier than a great team with a great 1688 01:26:11.039 --> 01:26:14.439 quarterback that is embracing the analytics of going for and 1689 01:26:14.560 --> 01:26:16.520 fourth down like we saw Washington go crazy with it 1690 01:26:16.640 --> 01:26:21.399 last year. We've seen Detroit good job. We've seen we've 1691 01:26:21.399 --> 01:26:24.960 seen Detroit do it in years past and still do it. 1692 01:26:25.479 --> 01:26:27.279 He's embracing that. He's starting to doing more and more 1693 01:26:27.319 --> 01:26:30.319 and more. So the arrows up and and I don't 1694 01:26:30.319 --> 01:26:32.880 know what it is about Buffalo. What's what are we 1695 01:26:32.920 --> 01:26:40.520 sitting on with record wise? Yeah, it's when I watched them, 1696 01:26:40.560 --> 01:26:44.680 I'm like, okay, the second place. Yeah, they're five and two, 1697 01:26:44.840 --> 01:26:47.079 but they're they're three and four a t s. There's 1698 01:26:47.119 --> 01:26:50.119 just been It's just it doesn't look and at Oliver 1699 01:26:50.239 --> 01:26:52.960 is out in this game. You know there's something not 1700 01:26:53.159 --> 01:26:55.479 quite right with their defense. It hasn't looked right all year. 1701 01:26:55.920 --> 01:26:57.720 I don't know, man, Just I gotta have a reason 1702 01:26:57.760 --> 01:27:00.600 to go and go against my homes as a show favorite. 1703 01:27:00.760 --> 01:27:03.239 And I don't find them other than what you said 1704 01:27:03.279 --> 01:27:06.680 with the Buffalo owning them and that's fine, But Kansas 1705 01:27:06.680 --> 01:27:09.760 City's building and chasing. They're building and chasing, and that's 1706 01:27:09.760 --> 01:27:10.880 not you don't want to go against that. 1707 01:27:11.920 --> 01:27:14.640 Well, so is Buffalo. Look, everything was onom me for 1708 01:27:14.680 --> 01:27:17.880 Buffalo Power and Great Buffalo fifty two and a half. 1709 01:27:17.920 --> 01:27:19.680 I've got it graded under. I had never bet that 1710 01:27:19.680 --> 01:27:21.920 in a million years. In this game we have Buffalo 1711 01:27:22.000 --> 01:27:24.760 went in twenty six, twenty four. It's a flat matchup 1712 01:27:24.840 --> 01:27:29.960 for John Wayne. But again it's a terrible matter from home. 1713 01:27:30.039 --> 01:27:31.920 So loses two points to BPG. He plays like shit 1714 01:27:32.000 --> 01:27:35.279 against them. Literally every game that doesn't have a do 1715 01:27:35.479 --> 01:27:38.920 or die circumstance to it, he just does. Now Buffalo 1716 01:27:39.159 --> 01:27:41.680 does lose a half point the VPG the running game. 1717 01:27:41.720 --> 01:27:44.000 I don't like that, and Kansas City gains a point 1718 01:27:44.000 --> 01:27:46.720 and a half. However, for Jacoes Outcha goes out. 1719 01:27:47.880 --> 01:27:50.239 Jakos sucked. He's sucked all year. He has not been 1720 01:27:50.520 --> 01:27:54.279 He's a non factor. It's not a good running back 1721 01:27:55.079 --> 01:27:55.479 either way. 1722 01:27:55.800 --> 01:27:59.439 There's two things that kept me from playing Buffalo in 1723 01:27:59.479 --> 01:28:03.640 this game. One, yes, Buffalo has on Kansas City in 1724 01:28:03.680 --> 01:28:06.399 the regular season for the last four years whatever, but 1725 01:28:06.560 --> 01:28:09.039 has been well documented on this podcast and probably this 1726 01:28:09.159 --> 01:28:12.000 podcast only. Patrick Mahomes has not been that good of 1727 01:28:12.039 --> 01:28:14.680 a quarterback for the last four years through the regular season. 1728 01:28:14.720 --> 01:28:16.039 If you just look at his numbers, and I'm not 1729 01:28:16.079 --> 01:28:19.000 saying he's not still the greatest quarterback in the NFL, 1730 01:28:19.760 --> 01:28:23.239 especially when it fucking matters. But through the regular season, 1731 01:28:23.319 --> 01:28:25.199 he just hasn't been He's not been good. He's not 1732 01:28:25.319 --> 01:28:29.479 been Paddy. But we started talking about this, Longhorn, I 1733 01:28:29.479 --> 01:28:32.439 don't know three weeks ago when I said this is 1734 01:28:32.479 --> 01:28:35.319 the game that Patty should be Patty again. And guess what, 1735 01:28:35.399 --> 01:28:37.319 he went out and he was Paddy. And since that 1736 01:28:37.399 --> 01:28:39.439 game when I said that, he's not not been Paddy. 1737 01:28:39.720 --> 01:28:43.279 This looks like that original iteration of the Chiefs where 1738 01:28:43.279 --> 01:28:45.520 they just want a rough shot over body. I know 1739 01:28:45.640 --> 01:28:47.239 that disappoints you because you don't want to seem some 1740 01:28:47.319 --> 01:28:49.560 super Bowl again. However, if they keep playing like this, 1741 01:28:49.800 --> 01:28:52.279 they're going to the goddamn super Bowl again because nobody's 1742 01:28:52.279 --> 01:28:56.119 gonna fucking beat it. And the other thing that did 1743 01:28:56.159 --> 01:28:59.039 not let me play Buffalo is hand City is before 1744 01:28:59.079 --> 01:29:02.319 the Boy and before the buye away favorite. It's twenty 1745 01:29:02.359 --> 01:29:06.279 twenty one, twenty and fourteen fifty eight point eight percent 1746 01:29:06.359 --> 01:29:10.359 against the spread, covering by one point six points on 1747 01:29:10.399 --> 01:29:12.880 an average line of three point seven. We're at one 1748 01:29:12.920 --> 01:29:15.319 and a half. They're twenty three and nine straight up, 1749 01:29:15.359 --> 01:29:17.840 winning by five points a game. So now this is 1750 01:29:17.920 --> 01:29:21.640 not the spot that I could back Buffalo. Everything else 1751 01:29:21.680 --> 01:29:24.199 tells me back Buffalo. This is not the spot for Buffalo. 1752 01:29:24.279 --> 01:29:27.079 And again, like you said, talking about waives and momentimum stuff, 1753 01:29:27.800 --> 01:29:31.039 until somebody can slow this machine down that Kansas City 1754 01:29:31.119 --> 01:29:34.399 has now come back into No thank you. I'm back 1755 01:29:34.439 --> 01:29:37.680 into the motive. I'm like the Detroit thing, like I 1756 01:29:37.800 --> 01:29:40.159 got to have a fucking reason to bet against true, 1757 01:29:40.159 --> 01:29:42.039 I gotta have fucking reason bet Againstkansas City right now. 1758 01:29:42.319 --> 01:29:45.319 I had a reason with Detroit against Kansas City. Again, 1759 01:29:45.359 --> 01:29:48.640 the two teams I just mentioned the game, you know, 1760 01:29:48.800 --> 01:29:51.039 kind of turned on one play, it went the other 1761 01:29:51.079 --> 01:29:52.960 way and then it was a fucking lancelot. 1762 01:29:53.319 --> 01:29:56.840 I believe that was my home short short home favorite. 1763 01:29:58.039 --> 01:29:59.039 He's not a home favorite here. 1764 01:30:00.000 --> 01:30:02.560 I'm sorry, didn't mean to throw in the home He's 1765 01:30:02.560 --> 01:30:04.479 a short favorite. That's his sweet spot. 1766 01:30:05.319 --> 01:30:08.520 It was, and I'm not disagreeing with you there, but 1767 01:30:09.359 --> 01:30:12.039 against Buffalo has not been a good spot for him. 1768 01:30:12.399 --> 01:30:16.760 Favorite dog. It didn't matter. But again, I cannot can't. 1769 01:30:16.800 --> 01:30:19.840 I walked in this, I walked into the week saying Buffalo, Buffalo, 1770 01:30:19.960 --> 01:30:22.279 Buffalo as a dug in its like, fuck, I can't 1771 01:30:22.319 --> 01:30:24.560 bet Buffalo. So it's one of those games is a 1772 01:30:24.600 --> 01:30:27.319 handicaverage frustrating because you when you look at a slate 1773 01:30:27.319 --> 01:30:29.560 and along, when you know this, you look up and 1774 01:30:29.600 --> 01:30:31.479 down a slate before you dig into anything at all, 1775 01:30:31.520 --> 01:30:34.520 you kind of circle three or four games. Right, they're like, 1776 01:30:34.720 --> 01:30:36.920 all right, I know which side I like here is 1777 01:30:37.119 --> 01:30:41.800 from history, memory, instinct, the way things are going, blah 1778 01:30:41.840 --> 01:30:44.119 blah blah. But then you start to dig in. Half 1779 01:30:44.199 --> 01:30:45.239 of those fall away. 1780 01:30:45.000 --> 01:30:47.640 And you're like, fuck, goddamn, oh you're lucky if three 1781 01:30:47.680 --> 01:30:49.800 you if you have three in the NFL, that kind 1782 01:30:49.840 --> 01:30:53.000 of everything lines up for you. Just it's that yes, 1783 01:30:53.399 --> 01:30:56.239 you're you're true, you're right in there. It's it's it's like, oh, well, 1784 01:30:56.479 --> 01:30:59.079 can't do that one. Yeah, can't this trend, can't do 1785 01:30:59.199 --> 01:31:02.279 that one. This can't do that one. Fucking injuries can't 1786 01:31:02.279 --> 01:31:05.159 do that. Injuries can't do that one. It's always something. 1787 01:31:06.279 --> 01:31:09.920 So I'm not disagreeing with you, but I am with 1788 01:31:10.079 --> 01:31:12.439 my whole heart hoping the Buffalo Eastest game. 1789 01:31:12.520 --> 01:31:15.479 Is fuck Kansas City, all right, fair enough. 1790 01:31:15.760 --> 01:31:20.000 All right, let's go on to those Washington I guess Redskins. 1791 01:31:20.119 --> 01:31:23.720 What's left of them? They're hosting No Seattle Seahawks. Now, 1792 01:31:23.800 --> 01:31:25.520 this one's not fair for the line movement. We got 1793 01:31:25.600 --> 01:31:28.079 no Jadon Daniels, so I'm not gonna go with the 1794 01:31:28.119 --> 01:31:31.279 preseason lines here. Vegas was five and a half. I 1795 01:31:31.319 --> 01:31:33.640 don't remember what I was. I definitely wasn't that high. 1796 01:31:33.720 --> 01:31:36.840 But still there's no way I was Seattle minus three, 1797 01:31:36.960 --> 01:31:39.600 which is where we're currently sitting at as a road 1798 01:31:40.119 --> 01:31:43.640 favorite with the most West coast to East coast game 1799 01:31:44.239 --> 01:31:48.560 possibly of all fucking time. M H long horn, what 1800 01:31:48.560 --> 01:31:48.920 do you got? 1801 01:31:49.960 --> 01:31:53.479 Yeah, but you got a team that dominates traveling in 1802 01:31:53.600 --> 01:31:55.960 the NFL recently with this new head coach that they 1803 01:31:56.039 --> 01:31:58.680 have that they got from Baltimore. So I mean, I 1804 01:31:58.760 --> 01:32:01.520 can only be can only look to Seattle in this 1805 01:32:01.640 --> 01:32:05.600 spot because you've got a Jade and Daniels who will play? 1806 01:32:07.000 --> 01:32:09.600 Is he is he banged up? More than likely he's 1807 01:32:09.640 --> 01:32:12.439 not going to be, you know, one hundred percent, I 1808 01:32:12.560 --> 01:32:15.319 think so. I think I think that's it's leaning towards 1809 01:32:15.399 --> 01:32:20.840 him playing. And well, look, if he plays, he's not 1810 01:32:20.880 --> 01:32:23.439 gonna be hundred percent healthy. If he doesn't, okay, great, 1811 01:32:23.479 --> 01:32:27.079 it's Seattle. Still. Anyways, you've got Tim Terry McLaurin. He's 1812 01:32:27.239 --> 01:32:30.000 he's gonna be out. Yeah, it's just like, how can 1813 01:32:30.079 --> 01:32:32.760 you do anything but take Seattle, who's been dominant on 1814 01:32:32.960 --> 01:32:34.920 the road. This is their sweet spot on the road. 1815 01:32:35.000 --> 01:32:38.479 It's it's counterintuitive, but uh, because they got they're they're 1816 01:32:38.479 --> 01:32:40.439 supposed to be really good at home, but they're for 1817 01:32:40.479 --> 01:32:42.680 whatever reason, really good on the road. So I've got 1818 01:32:42.760 --> 01:32:46.720 no reason. And Redskins suck at stopping the run, and 1819 01:32:46.800 --> 01:32:49.720 you've got a two headed monster running game in Seattle. 1820 01:32:49.800 --> 01:32:53.600 They that's true, that is true too so, but but 1821 01:32:54.000 --> 01:32:56.760 the two headed monster running game for Seattle should eat 1822 01:32:58.760 --> 01:33:02.439 and Donald Donald is been look again right in the wave. 1823 01:33:03.079 --> 01:33:05.119 Give me a reason to not to not play darm 1824 01:33:05.399 --> 01:33:07.840 I don't have one. So it just everything points to Seattle. 1825 01:33:08.079 --> 01:33:09.520 I know it's three and a half? Is it still 1826 01:33:09.520 --> 01:33:13.920 three and a half? Officially? Three? Even better? So so 1827 01:33:14.039 --> 01:33:17.239 you lose the hook there. That's just a nice little 1828 01:33:17.279 --> 01:33:19.439 spot for Seattle. I don't know if I'm necessarily gonna 1829 01:33:19.479 --> 01:33:22.800 like like banging into any kind of premium. 1830 01:33:22.479 --> 01:33:25.159 Pick or like like, but if you like Seattle, will 1831 01:33:25.199 --> 01:33:26.840 say this money is coming in on the Redskins, and 1832 01:33:26.880 --> 01:33:28.720 I think this game closes. 1833 01:33:28.439 --> 01:33:33.520 Under three, So just wait, yeah, what worries me is 1834 01:33:33.760 --> 01:33:36.920 is that you do have the Redskins getting their you know, 1835 01:33:37.359 --> 01:33:40.880 quarterback back. So if if he plays like he has 1836 01:33:40.960 --> 01:33:44.119 that out of the world game, if he plays like 1837 01:33:44.239 --> 01:33:47.000 he's he has in the past where he just like 1838 01:33:47.199 --> 01:33:49.880 lights everything up, sure he could. He could burn you 1839 01:33:50.159 --> 01:33:50.800 one hundred percent. 1840 01:33:52.479 --> 01:33:52.680 I know. 1841 01:33:53.000 --> 01:33:55.720 So yeah, it's we're I think we're on Seattle, both 1842 01:33:55.760 --> 01:33:56.000 of us. 1843 01:33:57.920 --> 01:33:59.760 I'm not on Seattle, but I'm definitely not on the 1844 01:33:59.760 --> 01:34:04.840 Red so and I'll tell you why. Uh I get 1845 01:34:04.880 --> 01:34:07.039 I agree with this game of barri otis. I apologize, 1846 01:34:08.840 --> 01:34:11.960 But on the Seattle side, this is a fantastic matchup 1847 01:34:12.039 --> 01:34:17.760 for Sammy d. He gainst two five points this Redskins defense. Look, 1848 01:34:18.880 --> 01:34:21.920 I said when they hired dan Quinn last year, and 1849 01:34:22.039 --> 01:34:24.279 there I even did a solo pod on it for 1850 01:34:24.359 --> 01:34:27.119 the preseason. We bet the under on the Redskins, but 1851 01:34:27.159 --> 01:34:30.399 I said, look, Ben, there's a good chance this thing 1852 01:34:30.439 --> 01:34:32.239 could go over this total because they finally, for the 1853 01:34:32.279 --> 01:34:35.479 first time in a long time, have a legitimate NFL 1854 01:34:35.560 --> 01:34:38.880 head coach, and dan Quinn is that. But I also said, 1855 01:34:39.319 --> 01:34:42.039 caution that when he was a head coach, his defense 1856 01:34:42.079 --> 01:34:48.079 Atlanta sucked. It's like he can't influence both positions. And 1857 01:34:48.199 --> 01:34:51.880 this defense is fucking awful and it's getting worse Longhorn 1858 01:34:52.159 --> 01:34:55.079 by the week. It's not getting better. It started off 1859 01:34:55.159 --> 01:34:57.920 this year a lot better, right, it started off. We're like, 1860 01:34:57.960 --> 01:34:59.560 oh shit, okay, dan Quinn's got a little something going 1861 01:34:59.600 --> 01:35:01.479 there and play defense. They're not scoring a million points 1862 01:35:01.479 --> 01:35:03.840 like they did last year. They're still winning football games. Hey, 1863 01:35:04.520 --> 01:35:06.840 you know's got to turn around. No, he ain't got 1864 01:35:06.880 --> 01:35:09.439 shit turned around. They have fallen off a fucking cliff. 1865 01:35:09.600 --> 01:35:12.000 They're officially a mad team, giving up more points than 1866 01:35:12.039 --> 01:35:14.680 they've scored. They're not gonna be able to run the 1867 01:35:14.720 --> 01:35:16.359 ball against Seattle. Here that who's a point of the 1868 01:35:16.439 --> 01:35:21.239 VPG in Seattle gains a half a point. I mean, 1869 01:35:21.560 --> 01:35:23.319 it could only be Seattle for me. The only reason 1870 01:35:23.359 --> 01:35:27.119 why I'm not playing them again. Off a bye or 1871 01:35:27.199 --> 01:35:30.279 sorry before the buye This is before the buye away. 1872 01:35:30.359 --> 01:35:33.880 Favorites twelve fourteen and two forty six point two percent 1873 01:35:34.000 --> 01:35:37.119 ats on the Amazon of minus four point three, So 1874 01:35:37.239 --> 01:35:39.560 we're over we're under that, and you're already not coming 1875 01:35:39.600 --> 01:35:43.119 to four point three. Maybe that's enough to get you 1876 01:35:43.159 --> 01:35:45.000 to the fifty to fifty trend. It's not a killer 1877 01:35:45.079 --> 01:35:45.359 or whatever. 1878 01:35:45.399 --> 01:35:50.520 I wouldn't just yeah, that's not massive, it's not, but 1879 01:35:51.039 --> 01:35:51.359 that with. 1880 01:35:51.560 --> 01:35:53.720 Especially now you're telling when Jaydon Daniels is gonna play, 1881 01:35:54.159 --> 01:35:55.960 he still has that magic to him, even though the 1882 01:35:56.000 --> 01:35:59.439 offense has not been great, definitely not anywhere closer it 1883 01:35:59.560 --> 01:36:03.760 was last year. With this defense, dude, it's so bad. 1884 01:36:04.079 --> 01:36:06.520 It's so bad. And Sam Donald having such a huge 1885 01:36:06.960 --> 01:36:10.439 matchup advantage to the BPG. I cannot play Washington. I 1886 01:36:10.520 --> 01:36:11.279 just cannot do it. 1887 01:36:12.039 --> 01:36:12.560 I agreed. 1888 01:36:13.520 --> 01:36:16.560 All right, let's move on to the oh money up football. 1889 01:36:20.039 --> 01:36:29.800 It's those Dallas Cows coming off and embarss embarrassed road 1890 01:36:30.159 --> 01:36:35.760 domination loss for Broncos. They're coming home to face the 1891 01:36:35.960 --> 01:36:41.760 fighting midgets of Arizona coming off of bye two and 1892 01:36:41.800 --> 01:36:45.399 a half point home favorite Longhorn, what do you like 1893 01:36:45.520 --> 01:36:46.039 in this one? 1894 01:36:46.640 --> 01:36:48.720 You already know I'm gonna be on. The Cowboys are 1895 01:36:48.840 --> 01:36:52.880 coming like this ride, ride, the back and forth, just 1896 01:36:53.039 --> 01:36:55.760 the carousel, or or whatever you want to say about 1897 01:36:55.840 --> 01:36:59.159 about the Cowboys. Like you you bet against them when 1898 01:36:59.159 --> 01:37:02.439 they come off of giant embarrassing loss or a win. 1899 01:37:02.960 --> 01:37:04.479 You bet against them when they come up with a 1900 01:37:04.640 --> 01:37:08.640 giant embarrassing loss. That's when you want to that's when 1901 01:37:08.680 --> 01:37:10.840 you want to bet on them. So yeah, I'm gonna 1902 01:37:10.840 --> 01:37:12.560 be on Dak. There's a couple of numbers for for 1903 01:37:12.720 --> 01:37:15.560 Dak Prescott in this in this spot twenty nine and 1904 01:37:15.680 --> 01:37:20.039 fifteen against the spread in primetime games fift sorry, thirteen 1905 01:37:20.119 --> 01:37:22.279 and oh get this, mos Stevison and tell me you 1906 01:37:22.319 --> 01:37:25.039 want to go against this? Thirteen and o Ats is 1907 01:37:25.119 --> 01:37:28.520 a primetime favorite at home? You want to go against that? 1908 01:37:29.319 --> 01:37:32.600 Be my guest. I ain't doing it. He destroys bad teams. 1909 01:37:32.720 --> 01:37:34.640 Cardinals are sitting it two and five. I think we're 1910 01:37:34.640 --> 01:37:37.000 getting the midget back to play quarterback for Arizona. I 1911 01:37:37.079 --> 01:37:39.399 don't give a fuck. This is his sweet spot now. 1912 01:37:40.840 --> 01:37:42.720 Now I will say this is you don't when you 1913 01:37:42.880 --> 01:37:46.359 don't want to bet against the midget in Arizona is 1914 01:37:46.439 --> 01:37:48.600 when he's a dog. So there's there is that little 1915 01:37:48.640 --> 01:37:52.399 conflicting thing. But it's under three now I feel like that. 1916 01:37:53.439 --> 01:37:54.920 And I was gonna bring that on a handicap. We 1917 01:37:55.000 --> 01:37:57.239 used to be so scary, so petrified. 1918 01:37:59.399 --> 01:38:02.520 It's under the three, but I would but I would 1919 01:38:02.520 --> 01:38:05.880 love to see that. Well, No, they've lost, they've lost 1920 01:38:05.920 --> 01:38:08.800 close games this year with him in there, so like 1921 01:38:09.159 --> 01:38:11.600 if but you need more, you need more than than 1922 01:38:11.680 --> 01:38:13.399 two and a half. You need more than two. It 1923 01:38:13.399 --> 01:38:14.840 doesn't matter if you play well, if you if you cover, 1924 01:38:14.960 --> 01:38:16.720 you cover. So like you need more than two and 1925 01:38:16.760 --> 01:38:18.680 a half though, Like if this was three and a half, 1926 01:38:18.760 --> 01:38:21.880 four and a half, six, seven, that's your magic spots 1927 01:38:21.920 --> 01:38:25.760 with with with with a midget, but under three with that, 1928 01:38:25.960 --> 01:38:28.159 those numbers for DAK fucking get out of here. I'm 1929 01:38:28.159 --> 01:38:29.039 all over the Cowboys. 1930 01:38:30.960 --> 01:38:34.439 Yeah, full agreeance with me here. Now here's where I 1931 01:38:34.520 --> 01:38:36.800 struggle with my numbers a little bit. Fifty four is 1932 01:38:36.800 --> 01:38:39.520 a total. I've got to going under zero chance whatever, 1933 01:38:39.680 --> 01:38:44.800 fifty four. There's no Dallas scores forty game at home. 1934 01:38:45.680 --> 01:38:47.199 Yeah, and they might hear too. 1935 01:38:47.920 --> 01:38:50.279 No, that's not I'm not making that up. They've scored. 1936 01:38:51.920 --> 01:38:52.239 Season. 1937 01:38:52.880 --> 01:38:56.560 It is such a disparity between them home and road. Now, 1938 01:38:56.920 --> 01:38:58.760 it's not a great matchup for DAK as far as 1939 01:38:58.880 --> 01:39:01.319 defensive scheme here, and it actually is a really good 1940 01:39:01.359 --> 01:39:04.359 matchup for the midget. But I mean Dallas defense sucks, Yeah, 1941 01:39:04.399 --> 01:39:06.520 they suck. And it's a good matchup for the running 1942 01:39:06.520 --> 01:39:09.359 game for Arizona. So the BBG actually grains out Arizona 1943 01:39:09.439 --> 01:39:11.800 to cover this game. I don't care because everything you 1944 01:39:11.920 --> 01:39:17.079 just mentioned, plus this, both these defenses fucking stink. Thirty 1945 01:39:17.119 --> 01:39:21.119 second for Dallas, success rate twenty eight for Arizona. You 1946 01:39:21.159 --> 01:39:24.960 don't think this game's going over? Probably is, however, Cowboys 1947 01:39:25.159 --> 01:39:29.039 sixth in offense success rate, Arizona's offense staks twenty six. 1948 01:39:30.079 --> 01:39:32.479 And this is the worst for all the shit we've 1949 01:39:32.479 --> 01:39:35.359 talked about the Cowboys the defense all season long. If 1950 01:39:35.399 --> 01:39:37.439 you think that the Jets were the worst team, no, no, no, 1951 01:39:38.000 --> 01:39:41.479 this is the worst offense that they have played all season. 1952 01:39:41.520 --> 01:39:45.640 They grade out lower than the Jets, and they basically 1953 01:39:45.680 --> 01:39:48.199 shut the Jets down. And if you want to talk 1954 01:39:48.239 --> 01:39:50.520 about home road splits, like I said, the Cows have 1955 01:39:50.920 --> 01:39:54.640 yet to score less than forty points at home. They 1956 01:39:54.680 --> 01:39:57.640 haven't even sniffed that on the road. And Arizona doesn't 1957 01:39:57.640 --> 01:40:01.439 score anywhere on anyone. This is a cow spot for me. 1958 01:40:02.399 --> 01:40:05.119 And then a couple of trends here we have, so 1959 01:40:06.279 --> 01:40:11.000 the Cowboys are sorry. The Arizona coming off of bye 1960 01:40:11.359 --> 01:40:16.600 away dogs in twenty twenty one sixteen nineteen forty five 1961 01:40:16.640 --> 01:40:18.760 point seven percent on average line of four point six 1962 01:40:18.840 --> 01:40:21.720 and losing by a point, So that means they're losing 1963 01:40:21.760 --> 01:40:25.319 by five and a half points per game. However, the 1964 01:40:25.479 --> 01:40:27.800 other one that just this is one of those perfect 1965 01:40:27.840 --> 01:40:31.600 coinciding trends. What could go wrong? Cowboys are going on 1966 01:40:31.680 --> 01:40:33.960 a bye next game. If you're going on a by 1967 01:40:34.920 --> 01:40:37.079 game before that, and you're a home favorite of twenty 1968 01:40:37.119 --> 01:40:42.520 twenty one, twenty seven and ten seventy three percent ats 1969 01:40:43.560 --> 01:40:46.840 five point one, and you're covering that by two point 1970 01:40:46.920 --> 01:40:49.920 two points per game, you're winning by seven and a 1971 01:40:50.000 --> 01:40:52.800 half points per game. We're only laying two and a half. 1972 01:40:53.560 --> 01:40:56.640 Everything you just said, it seems too easy, ad fucking home. 1973 01:40:56.720 --> 01:40:57.800 It seems way too easy. 1974 01:40:58.399 --> 01:40:59.880 That's scary, that's fun. 1975 01:41:00.239 --> 01:41:02.560 There's no other way to bet this. This is the slam. 1976 01:41:03.199 --> 01:41:07.279 The cows are coming over with loss Azona by It's 1977 01:41:07.319 --> 01:41:11.479 a slam dunk spot. Arizona wins by thirty. Don't worry 1978 01:41:11.520 --> 01:41:11.840 about it. 1979 01:41:12.199 --> 01:41:12.880 Take the loss. 1980 01:41:13.039 --> 01:41:15.800 It's fine. There's no way we were wrong, except when 1981 01:41:15.840 --> 01:41:19.600 we lose on the fucking scoreboard. Yes it is. It 1982 01:41:19.760 --> 01:41:23.479 is cows, cows cows from me here, and yeah, I 1983 01:41:23.479 --> 01:41:26.199 wouldn't be Look, I expect this game to be forty 1984 01:41:26.239 --> 01:41:28.880 to twenty seven and then to score sixty seven points. 1985 01:41:29.079 --> 01:41:31.880 You're never gonna sweat the fucking total either. That's really 1986 01:41:31.920 --> 01:41:35.279 what I expect in this game. I mean it would 1987 01:41:35.279 --> 01:41:37.720 be cows it over all the way for Cowson over 1988 01:41:37.800 --> 01:41:40.359 all the way, all right, because Arizona will be able 1989 01:41:40.359 --> 01:41:41.960 to score. They will be able to score. However, like 1990 01:41:42.000 --> 01:41:45.239 I said, is bas Cowboy's even has been. This is 1991 01:41:45.279 --> 01:41:47.600 the worst offense they've played all season long. And yeah, 1992 01:41:47.600 --> 01:41:49.920 they'll still score twenty on them and the cows are 1993 01:41:50.359 --> 01:41:53.319 This Arizona defense is shit. They're gonna score at least 1994 01:41:53.439 --> 01:41:57.279 fucking thirty five, probably forty. Yeah. 1995 01:41:57.680 --> 01:41:59.640 Are they gonna score more than the six points that 1996 01:41:59.720 --> 01:42:02.079 mia he currently has with four mans left in the game. 1997 01:42:02.520 --> 01:42:07.000 I don't know. Probably so yeah, probably so fucking What 1998 01:42:07.159 --> 01:42:09.199 a pathetic performance by you. 1999 01:42:10.319 --> 01:42:13.600 Okay, pathetic, we're looking good. 2000 01:42:14.359 --> 01:42:16.039 Pathetic up. 2001 01:42:17.399 --> 01:42:19.359 Okay, we might go to an odor not Boys and Girls. 2002 01:42:19.399 --> 01:42:21.600 All right. I think that was it Longhorns. That was 2003 01:42:21.840 --> 01:42:38.279 all them wins coming in the a. All right, boys 2004 01:42:38.319 --> 01:42:41.479 and girls, something was free as the picks of the week. 2005 01:42:41.680 --> 01:42:43.560 Get your pencils ready. 2006 01:42:44.319 --> 01:42:47.880 Remember I forgot. I forgot we're doing this. 2007 01:42:48.680 --> 01:42:51.279 He never forgets. That's just a bullshit. Co I won 2008 01:42:51.359 --> 01:42:53.560 two games in two years i'd make up some ship 2009 01:42:53.640 --> 01:42:54.079 too about that. 2010 01:42:54.279 --> 01:42:56.239 Yeah, I forgot, totally forgot. 2011 01:42:57.079 --> 01:42:57.319 Yeah. 2012 01:42:59.119 --> 01:43:02.399 Oh is it my turn first? Yeah? I always go first. 2013 01:43:02.880 --> 01:43:03.880 I always go first. 2014 01:43:04.039 --> 01:43:05.079 I don't want to break up the rhythm. 2015 01:43:05.399 --> 01:43:07.880 Oh you're talking about let's not change the thing. Give 2016 01:43:07.960 --> 01:43:14.239 me Indianapolis Colts minus three minus three free pick of 2017 01:43:14.279 --> 01:43:14.520 the week. 2018 01:43:14.960 --> 01:43:15.760 Are they playing again? 2019 01:43:16.199 --> 01:43:18.720 That would be them Picts park stars up there, extra 2020 01:43:18.880 --> 01:43:22.640 parking mat. Mike Tomman gonna get downtown and try to 2021 01:43:22.640 --> 01:43:24.000 get a win, but he can't win any more with 2022 01:43:24.079 --> 01:43:24.800 a bad defense. 2023 01:43:25.399 --> 01:43:29.000 All right, so guarantee Pittsburgh on the money line and 2024 01:43:29.520 --> 01:43:32.760 go ahead and on all your like player props. C 2025 01:43:32.960 --> 01:43:36.279 K if you're listening, and Daniel Jones over the one 2026 01:43:36.319 --> 01:43:38.600 and a half interceptions. That's got shp love. 2027 01:43:38.960 --> 01:43:41.479 This will be the time we're going to to really 2028 01:43:41.600 --> 01:43:43.760 test this theory. This time we're testing it. 2029 01:43:44.760 --> 01:43:47.960 All right, Let's go with the college free pick of 2030 01:43:48.000 --> 01:43:50.560 the week. Oh we already hit our one tonight at 2031 01:43:50.560 --> 01:43:52.720 the f Let's give you the other FCS pick is 2032 01:43:52.760 --> 01:43:55.239 still sitting at this line, so it's fair. Brian and 2033 01:43:55.600 --> 01:43:57.960 Monmouth over sixty two and a half long horn. When 2034 01:43:58.039 --> 01:44:02.359 Brian Manmouth had limit to tell you you fucking scoring 2035 01:44:03.079 --> 01:44:07.000 palooza and we're gonna get lots of points seventy seventy 2036 01:44:07.039 --> 01:44:08.920 five who knows, but definitely from the sixty two and 2037 01:44:08.960 --> 01:44:11.520 a half. Don't even worry about it. Boys and girls, 2038 01:44:11.880 --> 01:44:14.079 your boys still on his heaters. Wanna know already on 2039 01:44:14.199 --> 01:44:17.720 college this week just happens to night as we're recording this, 2040 01:44:18.159 --> 01:44:19.920 and hopefully about the old one to know in the NFL. 2041 01:44:20.520 --> 01:44:22.720 Off the fucking hot and running start. So let's do 2042 01:44:22.840 --> 01:44:25.119 that a long WRT. Tell me that family's Patreon where 2043 01:44:25.159 --> 01:44:27.199 they can get all these fucking winners. 2044 01:44:27.760 --> 01:44:30.279 All right, be sure to grow that Patreon page Patreon 2045 01:44:30.359 --> 01:44:34.119 dot com, slash bet, underscore fgh per Stevens with a hot, hot, 2046 01:44:34.239 --> 01:44:37.039 hot college football package. We got a couple of NFL 2047 01:44:37.079 --> 01:44:41.079 packages up there available for purchase, So people stop throwing 2048 01:44:41.079 --> 01:44:43.119 away your hard earn money on a guessing game. Let 2049 01:44:43.159 --> 01:44:47.359 the prose do that heavy litting. So sign up, tell 2050 01:44:47.399 --> 01:44:50.239 a friend and join in on the funnel watching football, 2051 01:44:50.720 --> 01:44:53.960 drinking beer, and never pay a bookie again. 2052 01:44:54.239 --> 01:44:58.520 Come on, a damn it, people, never pay a book 2053 01:44:58.560 --> 01:45:01.319 you again, Steven Tall, I'll take your sephim