Speaker 1: Welcome everyone to props and parlays, breaking down the Falcons
and the Rams on Monday Night Football. Thanks for joining
us everyone on it this Monday. I am your host,
Andy Lang, being joined as always by my prop betting
expert Andrew McGinnis.
Speaker 2: Andrew, nice to have you back.
Speaker 1: You were on a little bit of a holiday with
the hockey break and everything, so nice to have you
back on video.
Speaker 2: How was your weekend? How was your break?
Speaker 3: A lot of fun, you know, a lot of family time,
nice to watch some sports and be you know, just
relaxed about it. And you know, I didn't have a
ton of plays, And to be honest with you, I
kind of took the holiday break. I went into the
holidays on a bad two days, three days in a row.
So I said, you know, we're going to take it
easy and come back strong. So haven't had a ton
of plays lately. The ones I had have been gone
pretty well. But yeah, some pretty good games over the
last handful of days though, So yeah, look forward to
diving in. Always a fun time here on Monday, and
I feel like you and I have a pretty good
combined Monday record here on this show with our best
bets and some plays given out and you've got a
big play going tonight, so hopefully you'll make it a
great one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm excited.
Speaker 1: If it's the first time joining us for thank you,
if you've watched us all season, very much appreciated. We're
going to break down passing props, rushing props, receiving props
anytime touchdown, and this elusive same game parlay that has
eluded Andrew and I every single week.
Speaker 2: We've got to get one of those in So.
Speaker 1: And Andrew, you bury, you did bury the lead. You
fell asleep before the game started last night and what happened?
Oh man, Well, let's hope we have another exciting game tonight.
Speaker 4: And I'm never that guy. I'm usually a night owl.
Speaker 3: Like for me to fall asleep early with that early
is crazy.
Speaker 4: So you caught me up though. We're all good.
Speaker 2: Okay, So we have the Rams and the Falcons.
Speaker 1: So we have to first off talk about like the
motivation for both these teams based on the game that
happened last night. The Rams, they're not really playing for
a whole lot. I saw this narrative that all the
Rams may sit everybody. I'm not under that impression. I
saw it in view with McVay. They asked him about
this this morning and he said, no, we're not sitting players.
We're doing everything we can to win. Keep in mind
they want Stafford to get the MVP. You know he's
the favorite right now. I don't think sitting him would help.
And if you're gonna sit guys, that would be next week.
In my opinion, sitting guys for two weeks before playoffs
is pretty dangerous. So I expect the full effort from
the Rams, and I expect the full effort from the Falcons.
You've got Kirk Cousins, who's auditioning and wanting to keep
a job in the NFL. You got Ringen Morris who's
coaching for his job, and you got a lot of
guys who want to get these stats. So we're gonna
break down this game from props respective as if everybody's
playing and they're gonna play the full minute. So Andrew
to come to you first. Let's start with the passing props.
What do you like in this game?
Speaker 3: Well, you know there's there's looking at this here, Andy,
there's there's a play here. I'll mention with the the
passing touchdowns over for Stafford here, and you know, this
is a team that's number one in the whole league
and passing touchdowns per game. Uh. But the thing is here,
their play a team that you know, not bad against
the pass, right, they're pretty good against the pass overall,
but twentieth overall against passing touchdowns. So I kind of
get the feeling that maybe we end up looking towards
a lot of run plays on the way to the
red zone. But then once we get to the red zone,
we see Stafford going for it and he's you know,
using his arm to get touchdowns. We're not running it
when it gets there. This team has not just been
first in passing touchdowns over the past few weeks, they've
been first in passing touchdowns in the league for most
of the entire season. But obviously the books they know
about that because they're giving you, you know, a two
and a half at a nice plus price. I feel
like that's kind of interesting to look at. If you
can get over two and a half passing touchdowns at
plus one forty five, that's one that I'd be kind
of interested in, just because of that value, and just
because I do think that maybe if you like that
passing yards. It could be one of those funny ones, Andy,
where we look towards the under on passing yards and
the over un passing touchdowns because I do think we
see a lot of the running backs utilized in this
particular matchup.
Speaker 4: As far as.
Speaker 3: Kirk Cousins, it's kind of been washed Rins repeat for
me with looking at his passing attempts in specific matchups
like this, And the best part about it, Andy, We've
talked about this with several quarterbacks over the last handful
of mondays, where you know the passing attempts is great
just because you know you're and thing with the completions
as well, is that you're not as much banking on
them to go deep all the time.
Speaker 4: And I'm not saying they don't have the capability to
do it.
Speaker 3: They do have some of those big game players and
some guys that can catch the big one, but I
just feel like the volume is certainly going to be there,
and especially with them going down in the game, Kirk
Cousins is going to be dumping it off, and he's
dumping it off to running backs as well. It's not
just receivers. So looking at his passing attempt prop for
Kirk Cousins. It's kind of interesting, but I think the
one that really stood out to me the most is
that plus one forty five over two and a half
passing touchdowns for Stafford. And I'd love to know I
probably should have checked this because taking him under on
passing yards is something that I kind of actually thought about.
But then when I found that matchup for the passing touchdowns,
a great team versus a bad team with passing touchdowns
kind of stood out to me. So kind of non correlated.
Could get some good odds on that one, Andy, I
love those.
Speaker 1: I love those non correlated ones. Those are fun. I
can look up the stats on that one here in
just a second. I like Kirk Cousins to go over
his passing yards.
Speaker 2: I'm with you.
Speaker 1: The Rams have given up two hundred and seventy plus
to the last three starting quarterbacks, and Cousins has gone
over in two of his last four. Last time he
had a good matchup three seventy three. That was in
that shootout against Tampa Bay. And you know, for the season,
the Rams are twenty third against the pass and eleventh
against the run. So I go back to that Tampa
Bay game and I think this is kind of a
little bit of a mirror image of it where struggle
to run, so Cousins is gonna end up passing, and
if the game script calls for it, he's going to
be throwing quite a bit if they get down one
or two scores. I think I'm with you about Stafford,
that they're gonna do whatever it takes to get him
some that's make him look great tonight. And I'll look
at his over thirty seven and a half longest pass.
He's gone over in three out of the last four games,
and at home. You know, this is Atlanta that gives
up big plays. Josh Allen to Daniel Jones, Bryce Shung,
they've all had big passes.
Speaker 2: So Stafford I could see.
Speaker 1: Him, you know, getting one of these really really long
completions on blown coverage or just a really nice route.
And we know that these receivers for the Rams can
go up and get it, especially Puka. So Cousins over
his passing, Stafford over his longest pass. We move on
to rushing props here. I'll go first here on this one, Andrew,
but you mentioned it earlier. I do have a five
percent best bet as up tonight it's the very first
five percent primetime game that we've had all season, coming
off a nice five percent win yesterday. We had Trevor
Lawrence over his passing yards. He's able to get there
dodge the bullet. Andrew I almost went with his passing touchdowns.
He runs two of them in I would have been upset,
but as predicted, they carved up the Colt secondary and
we got a really strong opinion about tonight's play. So
coming off a winning record and a winning big play
yesterday and NFL we saw this late, really good yesterday,
really proud of the Reids. So you can grab that
over at my homepage, wtup buzz slash al. I'll take
a look here, Andrew at Blake Korm to go over
his rushing yards. I see forty four and a half
as the prevailing number. You know, he ran for forty
eight against the Seattle defense. That was a really strong performance.
The Seattle defense is really good. Korm and Kyen Williams
ran hard. They didn't have a lot of success yards
per carry, but they both get over their total and
before that seventy one one hundred twenty eight eighty one.
I agree with you. Between the twenties. This is a
lot of running for the Rams. I think they take
pressure off of Stafford until they get inside the red zone.
Speaker 2: So I agree with you.
Speaker 1: Not a lot of scores maybe for the running backs,
but maybe some rushing yards pile up for both.
Speaker 2: Of them, and kind of a sneaky one.
Speaker 1: Tyler Algier over thirty three and a half rushing plus receiving.
This is a category I've been looking at a little
bit more, mostly because of Chase Brown and the success
he's had with the rushing and receiving. But Tyler Algier
has had forty nine plus and five by the last
seven games. So when he's going over, he's going way.
Speaker 2: Over this total.
Speaker 1: So Blake Koram over is rushing Tyler Algier over his
rushing and receiving. Andrew, what do you got for rushing props?
And also tell everyone what you have up at Weeder
Talk for this Monday.
Speaker 2: You got some World juniors in hockey.
Speaker 4: We're Hockey World Hockey.
Speaker 3: I love it, and you know, you and I have
been doing shows together for quite a few years now, Andy,
and I've liked talking about this a lot, and you
know I'll tell people that it comes around just once
a year and you're betting spreads in hockey that look
like football spreads. You know, you've got teams in hockey
that are five and a half goal favorite six and
a half goal favorites, and you know, it's just it's
hilarious because you've got these big teams.
Speaker 4: That they might win. Like Andy, it was unbelievable.
Speaker 3: I don't know if I have the exact numbers, but
I believe the outrights were this face were straight up
seven and one to start the tournament. But Ats they
were one and seven to start the tournament. So like
you've got like ATS numbers for hockey. So anyway, guys,
I've been following the World Juniors very very closely. We
have a little bit of numbers under our belt. Now
some scores under our belt have to have looked at
and analyzed these matchups. It's still in the round robin.
You guys can get my package up tonight. There's a
handful of games to look at and I'll include some
packages some games for tomorrow. And I do have a
four percent best bet up for NFL player props. I
am up twenty three units this year on NFL player props.
Done very very well, and we've been very low volume
as well. So just one play, one play only. Hopefully
we can keep it going. And yeah, Andy, like I said,
like looking at the matchups, looking at strengths and weaknesses.
Here in this matchup, I think that we're gonna see
a lot of running until we get to the end zone.
And obviously when I look at this, I mean Stafford.
The thing with him too is that he can he
can bomb it out, he can air it out, so
that could hurt you a little bit. You're looking at
running yard, rushing yards because you do want to be
able to have long possessions. That's one thing that worries
me a bit here is because if they air one
out and they make connection, it kind of hurts your
rushing attempts or your rushing props.
Speaker 4: But I like the Blake korm One.
Speaker 3: But I'll tell you I think Kian Williams over on
his attempts just look so good to me, Like it's
just been so consistent, so steady, And I just look
at the charts, I look at the match up here,
I just don't understand why he's undervalued. I got fifteen
plus rushing attempts at plus money. This is a team
that's twenty six in the league the falcons and rushing
yards allowed per game. And I will tell people, if
anyone's looking at Bijon, I think I would recommend the
rushing plus receiving. You know, I talked about the Kirk
Cousins passing attempts, Sandy. I would just hate to have
Bijon rushing tonight and just watch him be such a
pass catcher all game long.
Speaker 4: And I think you'd be throwing your remote at the TV.
Speaker 3: So the number I had here was one hundred twenty
plus rushing plus receiving minus one twenty, So that's not
too bad.
Speaker 4: And I just think that you know, me, you and
mid major Matt.
Speaker 3: Talked about that years ago, Like there's just certain players
in the league that you kind of want to do
that combo bet for just in case they catch one
and go off for forty yards. I'll never forget, you know.
I had somebody for I think what was it. I
think it was a quarterback for a passing touchdown, and
you know they think they had like two rushing touchdowns
or something like that, you know, and that's the worst.
So you want to make sure that with certain players
you get those combo bets in and I'm sure you
agree Andy that Bijon is probably one of those guys.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a confusing team.
Speaker 1: There's we're going to go over a stat on on
Wader Talk today, But Trevor Lawrence Tyler Algier both have more.
Speaker 2: Rushing touchdowns than Bijon.
Speaker 1: So it's like you'd be better off betting Trevor Lawrence
and Tyler Algiers rushing touchdowns than Bijon.
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's he's Bijeon's one of those.
Speaker 1: Guys where the stat line sometimes don't make much sense,
like how's this guying up the.
Speaker 2: Number one running back? Like like stat wise in the
league though, But there's one.
Speaker 3: More thing I was gonna mention is that if in
a game like this, if we do think there could
be volume for for a korum and we kind of
want to look thround the other maybe I don't know,
if the rest ends up being a factor. You and
I talked about the start of the show, like it's
two games left. I think rest can mean russ Sometimes
I don't often bet these, but when I was scrolling
through their props for today, this kind of stood out
to me, and some people might say, you don't want
to look at something like this, but first quarter rushing
guards fourteen plus For Karen Williams, it's it's like you know,
it's it's it's like taking a team in the first
half sometimes where you're just like, Okay, this is going
to be the most meaningful part of the game. I
don't trust them to cover the full game number. Maybe
that could be an option for Karen Williams. Just go
out there, have a good first quarter first half, and
then maybe they start spreading it around to other guys
in the second half.
Speaker 4: Something worth mentioning.
Speaker 1: I thought, I have not figured out the first quarter prop.
But somebody that I trust and respect loves loves him.
I know Jared goff over one hundred passing first quarter
was a real popular one, you know in the Lions
or still so there might be something to look for,
look look towards for next season as that market kind
of you know, becomes a little bit more popular. So
all right, we move on to receiving. Coming to you first,
what do you like receiving props wise in this game?
Speaker 3: Can you can you just lay and let label like
one or two players and then just go for it.
After that, I mean is that when you look at
this roster overall, when you look at the both teams here,
Phoka Nakuo, I'm mad at him for costing me my
whole fantasy last year last week Andy forty six points,
forty seven points. But for him, you can kind of
pick your choice what you want to do with him.
But I think for him, I would go with receptions
when it comes to this one. You know, even though
I think there's gonna be a lot of running, you
got to look towards this guy being the one that's
just so heavily favored, uh, constantly catching the ball. I
can get eight plus at a pretty good price.
Speaker 4: So you can go nine.
Speaker 3: Plus at plus one point fifteen, which isn't too bad
to look at. There's one more that I was kind
of interested in here, which actually, well, I wanted to
say that I do think that Bijon. I think if
you want to look towards Bijon, you can just take him,
because you know, if you don't want to do that
combo bet, it's probably worth looking at here. But Darnell
Mooney for him over twenty seven and a half. I
think receiving guards got him twenty fifth ranked the Rams
twenty fifth ranked against receivers, and last couple of games
here for him, it's been pretty much around the same
line twenty four, thirty five, twenty five. He's covering around
the same line, which means that consistency level is there.
Speaker 4: And I like the.
Speaker 3: Targets six four, seven, eight, like he's getting a lot
of the options, a lot of the opportunities. And what
I like to look at Andy when it comes to
certain players like him at this twenty six twenty seven
and a half number is how are they doing in
victory or in defeat, And for him, it doesn't matter
if they've been blown out or if they've won games
by a big number. He's pretty much getting the exact
same numbers. So he's kind of somebody that looked at
over twenty seven and a half receiving yards, I.
Speaker 1: Looked at longest reception for Pukk. He obviously got to
do something with him. So he's got thirty plus in
five straight, so they got this line at twenty nine
and a half.
Speaker 2: He's right on the edge there.
Speaker 1: And also take a look at Kannada Mumpfield over twenty
three and a half receiving I can't ignore the stats
from last week. This guy had eight targets, three catches
for forty yards. This guy's gonna get eight targets. I mean,
even if he gets five targets, I like his chances
to go over this twenty three and a half. So
you know, with Devonte Adams out, mumfield is he stepped
into that role last week, So can't ignore the targets
and the catches. And then I stared at Kyle Pitts
just he's been fantastic.
Speaker 2: I'm leaning the.
Speaker 1: Under fifty four and a half receiving. He's flown over
in four straight. But this is the Rams team that
is six against tight ends. Kyle Pitts has been great
contract year. I could get burned on this one. I
have not played this with my own money, but I
lean the under on this one just.
Speaker 2: Because the matchup is pretty brutal for him. So all right,
let's go to anytime touchdown.
Speaker 1: While we're doing that, if you guys could please hit
the like button really helps the algorithm out. Give us
an anytime touchdown who you like in tonight's game. I
sneakily think there could be quite a few touchdowns in
this game. Andrews so I two I noted down was
Drake London plus one forty two sounds like he's playing tonight.
Plus one forty two sounds like a pretty good number
for me.
Speaker 2: And then I'll go back to Colby Parkinson.
Speaker 1: He didn't have one last week, but this is the
guy that's been scoring when they get inside the red zone.
And if you're right, and they throw when they get
inside the ten yard line, the Rams do. Colby Parkinson's
a big, big target. So I can get London a
plus one forty two and Parkinson at plus one twenty three.
Speaker 2: What anytime touchdowns did you like?
Speaker 3: So that's what kind of I was looking at Kyen
Williams and how often he gets in. But then looking
at these numbers, how like I said, it favors the
passing touchdowns for them, and it goes against a poor
team that allows a lot of passing touchdowns. I didn't
really want to look towards Kyron I was gonna look
towards him for two plus. I just don't see the
value on him to get one at this curtain. Current
number two plus for Puka is plus three seventy. I mean,
this guy's machine, the targets, the level that he gets.
You look at what his reception number is, Like I
went over, it's like you can get seven and a
half at like heavy juice eight and have you kept
you can't get plus money on his reception until you
get to nine.
Speaker 4: Like obviously he's gonna get he's gonna get targeted.
Speaker 3: So, uh, plus three seventy kind of stood out to
me that Ferguson one's interesting. And I'll tell you, I
think that Tyler Alger plus one ninety could be one
that we could be looking at here.
Speaker 4: I could see him getting it.
Speaker 3: They go down along the goal line and he's someone
they put out there to punch it in. So the
Pits one. How many people, Andy, you're gonna jump on
Pits this week though? Like don't you like, don't like
you mentioned him a couple of seconds ago, But how
many people are gonna be like, Oh, yeah, Pits man,
He's he's not bad, you know, he's pretty good. And
then like he goes out and puts a donut up today,
wouldn't shock me, wouldn't shock it.
Speaker 1: Would be so Kyle PITSI too, like like people that
like have Kyle Pits on their fantasy team are like
pick them up off of waivers and like or that
rode him to the championship and he just completely blows it.
That would be an absolute Kyle Pits thing. Fantasy points, Yeah,
something like that. I I hope it doesn't happen because
he's having a really good year, but it could absolutely.
So I looked up your Matt stafford to throw three
touchdowns and under two sixty nine gives you six to one.
Speaker 4: Wow.
Speaker 2: Yeah, not a bad little not a bad little payout there.
Speaker 3: So the problem is, I would need all the passing
touchdowns to be like ten yard passes. They have to
all be like really short passes. I can't have any
big plays.
Speaker 2: Nope, No, So all right, speak of big plays. We
need to hit the same game. We got like a
couple left. If we don't hit.
Speaker 1: Any of the regular season, we're just gonna extend it
to the playoffs and the Super.
Speaker 2: Yes, all right, Uh, I will get us started here.
Speaker 1: First leg, I'm gonna go Kirk Cousins two hundred and
seventy plus passing. This is a RAMS defense that is
much much better against the run. And if we get
in a situation where the Falcons are down, Cousins is
gonna be passing. We saw this against Tampa Bay, So
I'm gonna take his plus money on cousins two hundred
and seventy plus passing yards.
Speaker 2: All right, what's your first leg?
Speaker 3: Well, Andy, I say this every week, and I feel
like my my chalky bets are getting chalkier and chalkier
as we For the record, we're going like seventy five
percent the past like six or seven weeks here, We're
just we're just off by one every time I think
close to But look, i'm gonna go Stafford. We're gonna
go two plus. We're gonna go two plus past Stafford.
Speaker 2: Two.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's like minus two seven. But hopefully that's just
the Steph mark for us.
Speaker 2: Okay, We're we're desperate here, guys, we're desperate.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 1: For my next leg, I'm going to take the Rams
team total over thirty and a half. The Rams last
three totals thirty seven, forty one, and forty five. So
they're on the road, but they are on a fast
track indoors. So I think I think this game could
be a score fest. I think this could be a
game where they go up and down the field. So
I'll think the Rams at thirty and a half over
their team total.
Speaker 3: I like that, all right, last leg, last one for
me and you I'll go Bjon Robinson forty plus receiving
yards for him. I think he's going to be involved
in both running and receiving game. And if I like
the volume from Kirk Cousins for passing, I do think
and he and you know, his yards after catch are incredible, right,
Like he could turn the smallest play into something awesome.
And you know, with forty plus hopefully that's what he
does for us here.
Speaker 1: All right, So we got Jon forty plus receiving yards
to recap. We have Kirk Cousins two hundred and seventy
plus passing yards, Stafford two plus passing touchdowns, rams team
total over thirty and a half, and Bejon forty plus
receiving yards, bringing us to plus seven fifty. I think
my players are like six hundred of that seven to fifty.
Speaker 3: Andrew hey, my minus one one thirty five or whatever.
The bijon Robinson isn't isn't that? That's that's my solo
bet pretty much. And then and then the Stafford is
like minus two hundred.
Speaker 2: It's the minus two seventy that didn't really get us.
Speaker 3: Hey, if you want, we can switch it to three plus.
I don't mind going for the home run.
Speaker 2: No no, no, no, stick with two plus. We need to
see one go in. We need we need we need
to see see one go in here.
Speaker 1: So all right, Andrew, one last time, tell everyone about
what you have it for Monday night football in those
world junior hockey. Don't don't sleep on these these spots.
These these are really really good spots to build your bankroll.
Speaker 3: It's awesome, Andy, And I know you know about it
with some of the sports that you guys handicap and
it's just soft markets, guys that you know, it's the
world hockey. I do it every single year. I follow
prospects very very close. So I actually started a podcast
a couple months ago actually covering junior hockey across the world.
And I'm looking at these bets, looking at these goal lines.
We're making money and you know what, Like I said,
the favorites were seven and one the first eight games
straight up, but the underdogs were you know, seven and
One's ats you know, I'm betting on these underdogs.
Speaker 4: We're cashing tickets and totals as well.
Speaker 3: Player Props giving out you guys can get my package
up right now at wager talk dot com with the
World Juniors. Also a four percent best bet in the
player prop market tonight in the NFL, and we are
number one with twenty three units earned this year in
the NFL. So cannot wait for tonight. Just one play
and one play only. But guys, Andy has a huge play,
a massive play in the NFL. He's doing very, very well.
He has been primetime Andy. He was not coach prime
like like mister Sanders, but he is primetime Andy here
on wager Talk Props and parlay.
Speaker 4: So Andy, best of luck to you on that.
Speaker 2: Thank you.
Speaker 1: Yeah, twenty seven and fifteen in primetime games. Uh so,
five percent best bet, that's up. It's the very first
five percent primetime play that we've had. And so we're
coming off a really nice five percent winner yesterday and
just felt really confident about this game, felt really confident
about our read yesterday. So when you're feeling good about
a certain sport and your certain reads, it's it's time
to fire away. So that's on the front page at
wager talk dot com. You can get to the my
page quicker.
Speaker 2: With the shortcut, WT dot Buzz slash Al. Thank you
so much for joining us.
Speaker 1: Everyone leave a comment, tell us your favorite prop, give
us an anytime touchdown score. Hell, give us the same
game parlay that that that will actually hit oh.
Speaker 4: Better on with better better.
Speaker 1: Breaking, breaking down the tough props, the minus two to
seventy prop market.
Speaker 2: That's what you get here on props and parlay. All right, well, Andrew,
it's good to have you back.
Speaker 1: I know we got a loaded NHL so you can
get you Andrew on puck time as well. Myself and
Dan will be on wager Talk today, So thank you
very much for watching. Good Luck on Monday Night Football.
If your fantasy football championship depends on tonight, best of
luck throwing you guys positive vibes. Please hit the like
button and good luck on your place tonight.
Speaker 2: Take care,