Speaker 1: Welcome to Props and Parlays. I'm your host, Andy Lang,
Thanks so much for joining us. Going to be breaking
down the Dolphins and the Steelers, and I am joined
as always by my fellow prop betting expert Andrew McGinnis.
Andrew got a fire going in the fireplace, I got
a space heater, you got snow this morning, and then
we're gonna break down a game that's gonna be in
like ten degrees, so the name of the game is cold,
but hopefully we can give out some some winners tonight.
Speaker 2: How are you doing pretty good?
Speaker 3: Andy? Pretty good?
Speaker 4: You know, last week I got into some trouble by
releasing a couple more plays than I usually do, and
so yesterday I went back to just the one and
done one play one prop and we were all good
to go. So, you know, we're so tempted by looking
at the board finding so many different available bets that
we like, and you know, decided to go back to
what's been working for me. Hit one play by halftime
with Jordan Addison. As I was saying to you guys
before the show, I'm not sure what it is, but
with JJ mccar and Justin Jefferson, connection just never seems
to be there. So I took the next best guy,
and uh, Jordan Addison's not just getting all kinds of
catches and yards his his target numbers are super high.
Speaker 3: So that was my one play for the night.
Speaker 4: But uh yeah, looking forward to hopefully shockingly good day.
I'll tell you what, Andy, Uh this fantasy football playoff week, right,
I need Boswell for ten.
Speaker 3: Points to win one of my leagues to win one. Okay,
I'm in the leagues.
Speaker 4: And I usually don't like it, and I've got some
that I care more than others. But then I woke
up and was like, holy shit, somehow I'm still I'm
protected to put up one hundred and forty three points
and lose one hundred and forty three points and somehow lose.
I need Boswell to just somehow have it.
Speaker 3: Come on, Boswell, come on, that was your weekend? Though, Man,
it was.
Speaker 2: Good, it was good.
Speaker 1: I uh, I'm not I'm not playing this person, but
somebody in one of my leagues sneaks into the playoffs
and throws up Trevor Lawrence, Kyle Pitts, Trey McBrien, and
Collins scored one hundred and forty two points. Just with
those guys is just gonna gonna wipe out the number
one seed.
Speaker 2: So wild times in fantasy.
Speaker 1: Seriously, guy Trevor Lawrence, amazing. All right, let's break down
some props here which first time watching. We're gonna go
over some passing props, some rushing props, receiving props, anytime
touchdown props, and then we're gonna build a four leg
same game parlay angels. Start with passing props. I'll get
us started here. I like unders. I like to under
his completions. He's gone under in four straight games. And
this is a theme that this a Dolphins team has
absolutely one committed.
Speaker 2: To the run, and it's been working.
Speaker 1: A Chain's been absolutely fantastic. He's been flying over his props.
He even did it in a half last week. And
then Wright comes in. He plays really well against the Jets.
So the stats are pretty crazy with Tua playing when
it's less than forty degrees.
Speaker 2: He's yet to win a game in the NFL.
Speaker 1: I think it's him throwing my just the last resort,
and now you have TJ watt out. I think this
defense is right to be run all over. I think
we see a lot of time come off the clock
in between plays as well, and they went to it
to throw as least as possible. So I think to
under eighteen and a half completions, then I'll take Aaron
Rodgers under one and a half passing touchdowns. His offense
is pretty anemic. He's gone under in five straight games.
Speaker 2: Again, I don't think.
Speaker 1: This is an up and down the field the high
scoring affair. I think this is just a lot of
running and you see that clock start to run, So
I think scoring opportunities are gonna be few and far
between from these two teams tonight. So two under his completions,
Rogers under his passing touchdowns. Where are you looking at
for passing props?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 4: Where you left off Andy's where else start? I like
that under one and a half for Aaron Rodgers minus
one fifteen. I was a bit shocked by that one.
There the minus one fifteen number for him. And as
we mentioned, there's been games with no passing touchdowns, but
that any other time. It's been one recently a Doughnut
versus Buffalo, so nothing versus or one versus Cincinnati, one
versus the Chargers, so it just hasn't really been much
production out of him there.
Speaker 3: And as you mentioned, I.
Speaker 4: Have a feeling this game is gonna be one of
those games where you just, like all of a sudden,
look at the clock and you're like, oh man, like
it's almost halftime. You know, I can't really see these
quarterbacks doing a hell of a lot here in this one.
One thing I was kind of tempted to do for
both quarterbacks was to take take a look at the
longest completion under and even a guy like Aaron Rodgers
right now, if you notice, it hasn't really been working
for him slinging the ball very much. And I know
we talk about Tuo with the cold and I would,
you know, look towards Unders like you as well, And
I think that really helps us out when we look
towards some rushing pots, but under our longest completion for
some of these guys might be worth it as well.
But you know, Andy, I feel like there's gonna be
a big running game, there's gonna be an Unders game overall,
and it feels kind of weird.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 4: There's been times where you and I have come on
this show together and we're like, oh man, this is
gonna be like you know.
Speaker 3: A nice Monday night game.
Speaker 4: We got a twenty seven to twenty four to go here,
and then this is what we have here to deal
with today.
Speaker 3: So I mean, obviously it's in props.
Speaker 4: It's a game of betting, you know, numbers, not faces,
not players. But the end of the day, I don't
think these numbers are you know, quite low enough for
me to want to bet any of the overs on
completions or attempts. And you know, I guess the only
over is we want to bet probably with a guy
like TowIt's and I might be interceptions.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like, are they going to give him enough
opportunities to throw the ball to even throw one of those?
Speaker 3: Right?
Speaker 2: Those patented interceptions? I mean he does it every game.
Speaker 1: He'll throw you one, like he'll throw the other team
a golden opportunity.
Speaker 2: Just can they take advantage of it? So? Are we
move on? Two rushing props?
Speaker 1: I will get a started here with Jalen Wright over
eighteen and a half rushing yards. A Chane doesn't look
like he's got an injury designation tonight. I know he's
a little banged up. Last week coaches did come out
and say, oh, he could have come back in the
game if we needed him. But when someone like Jalen
Wright comes in rushes twenty four times for one hundred
and seven, I just don't think you put them on
the bench and don't go back to him. I think
I think he gets some work here. So Jalen Wright
over his rushing yards. And then here's this one's right
up our ally Andrew Aaron Rodgers rushing yards half, he's
gone under in five out of six, but it is
only half. You just have to fall forward and you
get over this one. So I'm not betting it, but
the under.
Speaker 2: It just can't imagine Rogers running the ball very much.
Speaker 1: But you take an under on that and then he,
you know, runs out of bounds for two yards and
your bets cook. So but I do like that Jalen
Wright over his rushing yards. What do you think about
rushing props?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm just taking a look at Jalen Warren and
I'll tell you, like, we've seen a lot of a
lot of players kind of go over their number recently
against Miami, and it hasn't always been big name guys
as well. But of course the bigger name guys have
been able to go over looking at Derrick Henry looking
at kind of even even a brief hall of late
Remondres even say, I mean, you know, I maybe would
even take a look at the alternate at fifty plus
yards for him, I got minus one twenty five at that.
I just think that with the lack of expectations for me,
and it sounds like, you know, we don't really expect
much from either quarterback tonight, I feel like we're gonna
see Jayalen Warren get the ball a ton And this
could also be one of those times where you don't
just look towards one guy, you look towards a guy
like Kenneth gainwell as well, you go to the second option,
Like I think this could be one of those games
where we're looking towards multiple guys. But when I'm looking
at Jalen Warren, looking at some of what he's done lately,
and then of course we look at Miami twenty seventh
and rushing yards overall, a loud twenty fourth overall.
Speaker 3: And Andy, you mentioned about that half for.
Speaker 4: For Rogers. Call me crazy, but you talk about stumbling around,
I mean, tua kudtua get over his yard. It's pretty
low as well. We can't hate on the guy the
whole show here. I mean when it ultimately comes, and
I think it could be something worth looking at, because
you look at him. If we don't expect him to
be passing the ball a ton, we expected to be
running a lot, He's gonna face pressure from this Pittsburgh team.
It's not like we're asking him to get a lot here,
and we know he's not really the kind of quarterback
that likes to protect himself. Not to be insensitive, but
I think maybe he could go over his rushing yards.
So but I think overall that that the key word
for this day is attempts attempts under for some of
the passers and attempts over for a lot of these runners.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean his rush attempts is one and a half. Again,
we talk about Neil downs.
Speaker 2: You know, if there's any neel downs, you know you'll
get over on that one.
Speaker 1: So now I can't bring myself to play an under
or over on these two quarterbacks rushing.
Speaker 2: It's it's too terrifying.
Speaker 1: So I will be uh, I will I will leave
that to everyone else to bet on those.
Speaker 2: Before you get to receiving props, what do you have
up for everyone at wager talk.
Speaker 3: Any number a huge card in the NHL.
Speaker 4: But I do have a two pack of three percent plays,
so didn't quite meet best bet material. But two pack
of three percent plays one is a total and one
as a side.
Speaker 3: I will not.
Speaker 4: Get there with a four percent play. I've been very
selective with them in the NFL. There's a good chance
I have a two percent or a three percent play
going tonight in the NFL. So looking forward to that,
looking forward to a great night. And as I said,
we were one and done this past weekend. We had
one play, one prop only and we keep on rolling.
I think over twenty units now in the NFL this
season with player props, So of course you know we've
had some three percent and four percent, some five percent.
But it's been a really good year and hope to
keep it growing. And you know what, shout out to
all of you guys that bought that package, the hockey
and the NFL props combined, because it's all I really
do in the NFL is the player props. So andy,
we'll see if we get to the window tonight. But yeah,
NHL double play one total and one side, and I
I know you've been pretty solid on Monday nights.
Speaker 3: Man, what do you have going today?
Speaker 1: Yeah, we didn't have a play on Sunday Night Football,
but we do have one tonight.
Speaker 2: I absolutely love it.
Speaker 1: We are twenty five and thirteen this season in primetime games.
Speaker 2: We lost our big play yesterday.
Speaker 1: It's one of those frustrating days where we had a
winning record but we just lost the bigger play. So
I thought we were seeing the board pretty good. And
primetime games have just been fantastic. It's been a really
really bright spot for us. So twenty five and thirteen
on primetime games, that best bet is up and I
will certainly have some NBA. NBA has been really really
good to us, Andrew. The NBA props have been really solid.
Think we're gonna ten and three run on those. So
seeing NBA really really well. But yeah, partner up, join
up with us on Monday Night Football and we'll get
you to the window. Let's talk receiving.
Speaker 2: Andrew.
Speaker 1: Adam Thielen under one and a half receptions. This was
the Steelers big big acquisition Adam Feelin That don't really
brighten up the offense. So he had one target last week.
Speaker 2: So I just stop it.
Speaker 1: So Adam Deeling under one and a half receptions, and
then you mentioned I like Gainwell over twenty two and
a half receiving. He's had twenty five plus and four straight.
You know, the Steelers, they just don't push the ball
down field a ton. Dk Metcalf has been kind of
a disappointment. So you get these Deacon Dunk with the
tight ends and the running backs, and gain Well has
been pretty efficient, pretty good in the receiving game. So
Adam feeling under and Kenneth Gainwell over his receiving what
do you like receiving props?
Speaker 4: And yeah, I love when I can find these like
massive differences between like how a team overall ranks in
a certain position and then specifically how they're much different
against one certain spot. So what I'm trying to say
here is that we've got a defense here with Miami
that ranks twelfth overall and receiving guards given up, but
they're thirtieth overall and tight end receiving yards given up,
Like that is a massive difference.
Speaker 3: I love looking at that.
Speaker 4: I think you and I found that with a player
last Monday when it was receiving yards to a running
back given up, but a team was actually pretty good
overall against receiving yards and against the past, so that
stuff's kind of interesting to look at. The only issue is,
and I was talking with you guys before the show
about this, is that you're kind of trying to figure
out which guy is gonna be used. You know, Darnell Washington,
Pat Fryarmuth, Hell, you've got John why Smith. Like you know,
this is one of those kind of like catch me
if you can kind of thing, like, oh, yeah, I'm
gonna take this guy and then you take that guy
type of thing because you don't really know who's gonna
get all the yardage and who's gonna get the attention.
Speaker 3: But this is one of those ones.
Speaker 4: That it's more about execution and not about targets. So
like Andy, this could be one of those ones where
we used to take those like counter uh what's the
word for it, Like we would go get like the
under on receptions, but over on yards, Like a lot
of these tight ends are gonna get one or two each.
It's just about whoever had the better, like of their
one or two catches each, but whoever had the better
of those two catches. But if I were to look
at anything I would probably be taking a look at
the Darnel Washington side, just taking a look at all
the tight ends that have had success against Miami. It's
a lot of green. It's a lot of green. It's
a lot of guys that have done very very well.
Zach Ertz, Juwan Johnson, Daldonkin, kid Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts,
like a lot of these guys have been able to
get the job done against them. So that's one angle
that I would look towards. And I think you already
mentioned this, but if we don't have a lot of
faith in the quarterbacks tonight, overall, I probably would look
towards the bigger name guys like I know that you
know we've seen the Steelers struggle against wide receiver ones
in some of these games and stuff. But I don't
know if i'd want to look towards anything over when
it comes to Wattle, because I just don't expect him
to get the ball enough. I don't expec him to
be put in positions to make anything dangerous happen. And
one thing that you touched on as well that I
certainly agree with you on is if they are throwing
the ball, maybe it's just the most simplistic play you
can imagine, like a dump off or a short pass.
And that kind of bodes well with what I was
saying earlier about taking the under on the longest completions.
You know, let me look, if I was taking an over,
maybe maybe I'll take the over on how many five
yard passes are attempted by both quarterbacks tonight. And I
think that's a really good idea. But you know, I know,
I'm sure you're you're with me on this. Like I
love finding stuff where it's just such a massive difference
like this, like Miami's defense and receiving yards twelfth overall
but thirtieth to tight ends. I always find that stuff
pretty cool.
Speaker 1: Yeah, tipa Bay Buccaneers or another one of those teams
were great against the run, just terrible pass defense.
Speaker 2: So uh yeah, I.
Speaker 1: Kind of like Darnault Washington props that we were talking
for the show, Like who wants to tackle that guy
in the cold right, Like that guy gets ahead of
steam going. I think a Miami Dolphin wants to wants
to get in front of him, no way, So yeah,
he would he would be the guy I'd be targeting
if I'm Pittsburgh. So all right, let's do any time touchdowns.
I'll go with both Miami running backs a chain and
righte E. Chanin's like minus one twenty, which is.
Speaker 2: Just terrible odds.
Speaker 1: But I mean, if they commit to the run like
I think they're going to, a change should get in
there and then kind of like kind of like right
as kind of a backup here, he's plus seven fifty,
So I get both of the Miami running backs.
Speaker 2: I could see both of.
Speaker 1: Them having a touchdown tonight, so maybe little sprinkle on both.
Speaker 2: What do you think about touchdowns?
Speaker 4: I had two guys circled for today, Kenneth Gainwell plus
one ninety and Darneld Washington, who's the man of the
hour for me.
Speaker 3: I guess at plus four twenty five.
Speaker 4: So he's interesting, and honestly, this kind of tells you something.
Speaker 3: What if you pick two.
Speaker 4: Andy and I don't want to get greedy here in
a game that I won't put words in your mouth,
but I don't really see a ton of points going
on here. You've got Washington plus four twenty five, John
new Smith's same number and Pat frymer as this plus
four seventy five.
Speaker 3: What if I pick two tight ends.
Speaker 4: I just need one of them to get in, you know,
pick pick two tight ends. Like, not only does this
team give up to give up yards, they also are
twenty seventh in touchdowns in the league against tight ends.
Like if I give if I if I bet two
plus four twenty fives and one of them hits, you're
still in the green.
Speaker 3: You know, you got a tight end. That's the problem.
Speaker 1: That's that's the problem is you pick two and then
the other guy scores, and you're like, what the f man,
are you kidding me?
Speaker 2: So that's what's so tough about when there's three options
and you and you try and pick two.
Speaker 1: So we say it every week though, these these touchdown
props are just criminally priced, like minus one twenty to
score touchdowns.
Speaker 2: Ridiculous. So all right, Andrew, we haven't hit. When you never.
Speaker 4: Correlate with the total either, Andy, that's the weird thing, right,
you look at it totally you're like, okay, this makes sense.
If it's like a fifty three total, it's like okay.
But if it's like a really low total, it's like,
why the hell is this guy?
Speaker 3: So you know, we're so expense.
Speaker 1: Gusting, all right, we got to build the same game parlay.
We've yet to hit one this year. Today's got to
be the one. All right, let's get this started. Andrew
picks two legs. I picked two legs.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna get us started here with a chain.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take him one hundred plus rushing. I think
he's healthy, doesn't have that that injury tag. The coaches
said he could have played last week if they needed
him to, and I just think they handed him the
ball a ton. It's a team that's playing well against
bad teams, especially, they've been winning some of these games,
so I think this is a coaching staff and players
that are pre motivated put on a good performance.
Speaker 2: So give me a chain to have one hundred plus
rushing yards.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go under alternate first half twenty three and
a half. I know it's mostly a prop show, but
let's find a damn winner today. Under twenty three and
a half first half alternate number.
Speaker 1: Okay, all, we're going under under twenty three and a
half in the first half. For the total, I will
take Kenneth gainwell over fifteen receiving yards. So Kenneth gainwell
fifteen plus receiving yards. This is kind of bordering on
that he might be able to get this in just
one catch, but he's got multiple catches, should get plenty
of targets.
Speaker 2: So yeah, let's do uh, let's do game well to
have fifteen.
Speaker 1: Plus, all right, So we have a chan one hundred
plus rushing game, well, fifteen plus receiving under twenty three
and a half in the first half.
Speaker 2: What's your final leg.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with, Ah, this is kind of I'm
gonna go with This is gonna be super chocky for Andy.
My two players are so so chockey.
Speaker 3: But we need a winder here.
Speaker 2: We need a winner to go.
Speaker 3: Darnel Washington two plus receptions.
Speaker 1: Darnell Washington have two plus receptions.
Speaker 4: I'm kind of being a wimp on the show here
today with the same game parlay. It's giving out you
minus one seventy five and the fifty.
Speaker 1: It only gets us the plus seven fifty this week.
But we just got to see one get in, all right.
So we have eight eight one hundred plus rushing. We
have under twenty three and a half in the first half.
Kenneth Game will to have fifteen plus receiving yards and
Darnel Washington and have two plus catches that is plus
seven fifty. Let's get our first same game parlay winner
of the year. All right, Andrew, one more time, tell
everyone about your NHL plays that are but wait your talk.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I'd say your two picks are probably the
plus seven hundred out of that plus seven to fifty
on that same game parlay.
Speaker 3: So we meet you this week.
Speaker 4: Andy, two plays in NHL for tonight. We got a
side and we got a total. Things have been pretty
good in the NHL. Did lose yesterday, but looking forward
to a big night tonight on the ice in the
NHL or in the NFL. No best bets, no four
percent or five percent plays, but might be a sprinkle
or two with some smaller plays. So let's cash and
tickets guys, And again, don't be afraid to grab me
three day or and day pass.
Speaker 3: That's the way to go. And right now at.
Speaker 4: Wager Talk, we still have available the hat trick special
to get three days of all my hockey plays. And
right now, Andy, I actually started dabbling in the other leagues,
like I did some college hockey over the weekend, and
I've been following the AHL, but I have not pulled
trigger on it. But NCAA hockey kind of an untab
market and yeah, nic nice cash winner and that over
the weekend. So three day, every single thing in hockey
is forty nine bucks. One play is thirty five bucks.
Kind of a no brainer to just buy that three
day package. But Andy, over to you man, best bet tonight.
Speaker 2: Best bet Monday Night Football.
Speaker 1: Really excited. We're testing this twenty five and thirteen run
in primetime games in the NFL, so just one play,
that's all we need to profit tonight.
Speaker 2: We'll have NBA up as well later today. Thank you
so much for joining us.
Speaker 1: Guys, Please hit the like button to make sure you're
subscribed to the wager Talk channel. Leave us comment, tell
us if you agree or disagree with anything you've heard
on the show, give us your best prop for tonight,
and as always, thank you so much for watching.
Speaker 2: Good Luck under your bed tonight. Take care,