Speaker 1: One of the things that's crazy that nobody's really talking
about is a huge amount of credit, that credit card
debt that people have right now. It's at all time
pise and you have companies like door Dash that are
starting to finance their food purchases and people combating inflation
with financing their food and its crazy. And at a
certain point in time, I mean this, this bubble is
gonna pop.
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Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial
Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie lets Hey, we're just
here on October second. We got some job numbers out.
We've got some economic numbers out. Patrick Muller is with
us now Bella Advisors. Great to have you on the show. Patrick,
so well. Interestingly enough, we got we got some job
numbers in. They're not looking real good, but that means
the FED will be more likely to cut, doesn't.
Speaker 4: It sure does. Yeah the fat Yeah.
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna stick with what they've been talking
about pretty much since since late last year when they
were gonna slow roll things out but save the cuts
still the end of this year. So I think we
can we can see that that coming out. We're not
seeing any signs at the moment of that changing. So
this job's reported is you know, uh, pretty much a nothing.
Speaker 4: Burger, right.
Speaker 1: I think it's you know, not a whole lot of positive,
not a whole lot of negative. That's it's, you know,
I don't think it has anything to do with what's
what's to come down the road in the future.
Speaker 3: All right, So looking at the big picture mac grow
view here. Patrick, you know, how do you interpret the
recent swings in GDP? We went from negative in Q
one to nearly four percent in Q two. Is that
just a seasonal thing or is it indicative of a
deeper economic trend.
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be a deeper trend with
all the positive pro America moves that are happening right now,
you know, with wanting to produce, like one of the
job sectors that we saw that was bumping up was
natural resources. So with opening up oil and energy back
into the country, you're seeing a lot of jobs coming
in from outside of the countries. We go like Hundani
bringing over their business over to the stage. You've got
Apple Mickey big moves here, You've got ge moving there,
China operations back to the US to Kentucky, and I
think we're going to see more of that.
Speaker 4: And I think one of the biggest.
Speaker 1: Things, Carrie is with the trade negotiations that had been
going on, the big things that nobody's really talking about
is us being able to trade into other countries that
we really have been blocked out of. And I think
long term that's really going to help the GDP, help
the country grow, and long term, I think it's going
to be awesome.
Speaker 3: Me all right, well, it's nice to hear somebody who's
optimistic about things.
Speaker 5: You know.
Speaker 3: I took a recent trip to our nation's capital, and
you know, there's a story there that's.
Speaker 5: Not being told.
Speaker 3: Obviously, troops marching in crime is way down, the cleanliness
of the city is way way up. But there's also
a rebuilding of sorts taking place. I think I saw
seven or eight, maybe nine major federal buildings go undergoing
exterior restorations. I didn't even know what's going on inside.
And the whole Capitol Hill complex is being spiffed up.
The US Supreme Court totally redoing the facade because all
these buildings are made of marble, and where they're faced
with marble, the facades are and the marble deteriorates from
the pollution over time. So maybe there's a deeper, deeper
restoration of America taking place here.
Speaker 4: Well, we sure hope.
Speaker 1: So, yeah, you got and you got the Federal Reserve building, right,
the three billion dollars.
Speaker 5: You're wasteful, and that was SMA.
Speaker 4: Working with more government ways, do you know?
Speaker 3: Yeah, well they just print the money up to pay
for it anyway, So what difference does it make. I
wasn't even referring to the Eccles building, but I guess
that fits into the plan as well. Three billion dollars.
But you know, we do have a master builder in
the White House and this is right up his alley
to improve structures.
Speaker 5: You know, he's been doing it his whole life.
Speaker 3: So looking at it, consumers spending, you know, consumers under
pressure debt. These interest rate cuts will have zero effect
on consumer spending.
Speaker 5: What are you seeing there?
Speaker 1: Well, I think you know, it's going to be good.
See that the rate cuts come. I mean, I think
that's going to help eventually help bring out interest rates
and help the home market. We're starting to see homes
starting to pile up out there and listings, and I think,
I think long term, you're bringing the.
Speaker 4: Interest right down is just going to be a good move.
Speaker 1: And it's interesting that you say that I'm not going
to have too much of an effect on retail spending.
But one of the things that's crazy that nobody's really
talking about is a huge amount of credit debt, that
credit card debt that people.
Speaker 4: Have right now.
Speaker 1: It's an all time gise and you have companies like
door Dash that are starting to finance their food purchases
and people come adding inflation with with financing their food
and crazy, and at a certain point in time, I mean,
this this bubble is gonna pop. Yes, you know, sometimes
I'm not sure exactly how that's gonna plan out, but
we work itself out. But it's gonna be really interesting
to see how that affects things. But nobody's really talking
about that, and people are hurting much more than I
think people.
Speaker 3: Realize agreed to inflation. You know, we know the measures
are grossly understated, and it's kind of if we were
measuring inflation by the nineteen eighties indicators, it'd be far,
far greater than it is today. So the loss of
purchasing power in the dollar in their savings, you know,
maybe hasn't been that much offset by the increase in
the value of their homes.
Speaker 5: And as well as your salary.
Speaker 3: Increases that you've received.
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, you're definitely not seeing that keeping up right.
I mean, the price of everything over the last four
or five years is seriously doubled. And it seriously seems
like it was not that long ago, Carrie, that I
was spending one hundred bucks and filling up the trunk
of my car with groceries. And now it's seriously I'm
walking out with two bags or we got four dogs,
one big bag of dogs.
Speaker 4: Were pretty much knocks out a hundred bucks right now.
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, it's it's crazy.
Speaker 3: And God forbid to go to a place like holier
than the foods and you walk out with a with
a little lunch bag there or one hundred bucks.
Speaker 4: Right now, whole paycheck.
Speaker 5: I'm good.
Speaker 3: Well, actually they changed the name. It's now called Whole
Life Savings. But so obviously rates are coming down, inflation
isn't going anywhere, probably going to get worse before it
gets better. And this has effects not just in the US,
but in the entire.
Speaker 1: World right absolutely absolutely, I mean, and you're seeing it
all over the world right now, and you're you're seeing
a lot of people struggling all over the place right
in their economies right in Japan and China and Europe,
and it's it's really affecting everybody overall. That it's it's interesting,
you know as far as what you know, what do
people need to do at this stage right to be
able to get away to increase because you've got a
lot of things that are starting to shriek the markets
right now that we're starting to see, especially in the
tech sector with ai AI Becaueen were prominent and eliminating
a lot of jobs. You know, it could be you know, paralabels,
it could be computer programmers, right and uh, you know,
and so you're starting to see these tech companies that
are not hurting, they're you know, you've got great, great
profits yet, but they're cutting workforce and uh, it's going
to be interesting to see how that plays out in
the different industries that are going to start coming up,
like you have like roopers and plumbers and things like
that aren't going to go away, but you're going to
start seeing the salaries of those workers going up exponentially
because you've got so many skilled labor that it's leaving
where I getting older and a lot of people that
are getting that. So I was like, for every seven
people are leaving, we got three coming in. And so
that'll be an interesting trend to see play out over
the next few years.
Speaker 5: Sure. And yeah, well I think there is.
Speaker 3: A trend going back to trade. So I mean President
Trump just did a settlement with Harvard where Harvard's going
to be opening trade schools. I had to read that
headline twice Patrick, because I just didn't believe what I
was seeing.
Speaker 1: But I think we're going to see more of that
because people are going to have to with all the
advancements in AI. So it's gonna be it's gonna be
really interesting that that those job shifts happening and just
how many industries are going to be cut and and
just everything's gonna be revamped. So everybody is either jumping
on that train now and or they could be in
for a world or heard. I think in a few
years of people are paying attention to what's happening right now.
Speaker 5: Agreed, Agreed.
Speaker 3: So, hey, when we have this conversation in a year,
what do you think things are going to look like.
Speaker 4: I think things are going to look a lot better.
Speaker 1: I think we're going to definitely see some with all
of the tariffs coming through, and we got a lot
of revenue coming in, but we're going to start seeing
that affecting the pricing on things. I think that's going
to end up driving the markets down over the next year.
But long term, next year, I think I think we're
going to be moving strong. I think the country is
going to be moving in a very strong direction. But
as far as the outlook for people, when it when
it comes to jobs, they should really be thinking about
how do they embrace AI and make that a part
of their lives and getting on that train or like
you were talking about maybe going to Harvard and getting
an education for skilled trade.
Speaker 5: I I did a double take on that.
Speaker 3: So that was funny, all right, Patrick, Well, I think
it's interesting times ahead. We're definitely living through interesting times.
As the old Chinese curse goes. Just tell us where
we find you and how we can connect with you
on the web.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, you can go to Bella Advisors dot com and
you can find.
Speaker 5: Us there all right.
Speaker 3: Excellent links in the show notes to this interview on
Financial Survival Network dot com. Case you hadn't noticed, we've
switched to substack. It's so much more efficient. I don't
have to worry about running a website anymore, and I
think the amount of material that we have the ability
to reach you to send you timely articles is so
much better than what we had before.
Speaker 5: Patrick. Appreciate you coming on. We'll talk to you again
real soon.
Speaker 2: Thanks Garry, thanks for listening to carry Letz's Financial Survival
Network your solution to today's trying times. For the latest,
go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now
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