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Speaker 1: It's the Open Championship. Me and Nick are going to

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royal Port Rush, not actually physically, but we're going there

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mentally to research the Open Championship. Welcome everyone to t time.

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I'm your host, Andy Lang, being joined as always by

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my fellow golf betting expert Nick Borman. We're gonna break

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down the Open Championship. We're gonna go over a long shot,

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We're gonna go over an outright winner. We're gonna go

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for players that can trip you up. One and Don's

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Draftking Darlings. And at the end, we're gonna go through

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some head to head matchups that have been posted at

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the time of recording this, as well as maybe some

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top tens, top twenties, try and get you guys ready

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to profit off of this tournament. But Nick, let's start

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off with the one and dons. We both picked Robert

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McIntyre last week, and then I flip flopped and changed

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Matthew Fitzpatrick, which never works, and then it finally did.

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It did work, So one and done. We're getting down

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to the nitty gritty here. Not a whole lot of

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guys to pick from. I will go first. I'm going

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with John Rahm been very impressed with him. I think

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he settled into his live lifestyle, if you will. I

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still think he regrets making the move over, but you

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can't argue with the success that he's had over on

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Live Tour. And the fact is that he's been very,

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very good at the Open Championship. It wasn't good in

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twenty nineteen at this course, but seventh and second the

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last two years at Open Championships, coming off a runner

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up at Live. So I expect him to be calm.

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I expect him to be in a good mood. I

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expect him to be dialed in, and I think the

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weather is going to be good where tea times don't

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necessarily matter too much. So I'm gonna go with John Rahm,

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not really predicting him to win. I don't think he's

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there yet, but I expect the top twenty finish from

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him upside of the top ten. So John Rahm is

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my one and done? Who are you going with?

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Speaker 2: For the record?

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Speaker 3: For the viewers, we like to try to give out

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two different ones now typical one and done. We might

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be on the same guy because I love John Rahm

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also this week and I probably would be taking him,

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but for you know, the sake of the show, I'm

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going to give out somebody different, Matth metthwiz Patrick, who

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was the right play last week and hopefully doesn't miss

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the cut off you this week. But yeah, resurgence for

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matt over the last months, six weeks or so. He's

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playing great, very consistency, degreed again like we saw back

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when he won the US Open, and he does very

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well over in these in the league style golf. So

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he's a pretty simple play as far as form goes.

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Speaker 2: But I love Fitzpatch boy's doing right now. I think

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he'll be so hopefully he can go back to back

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here with another solid week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, love the play. This is the form of a

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guy who can win this thing. Yeah, you know he's

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got He's got success at Major's all of a sudden

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rounding into form. Couple top tens played great last week,

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so I agree with that pick. I'm jealous that I

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don't have my Matthew Fitzpatrick for this year, so them, Yeah,

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I'm Mulligan in the one and done. Let's let's talk

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Royal Port Rush. Here go over the course here, par

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seventy one. We'll call it seven three and eighty yards

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rugged dunes, steep elevation changes, beautiful coastal views. This is

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Harry Colts just it's a masterpiece. It really really is cool.

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I really want to go to the weather first. The

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weather looks to be pretty good this week. Warm, doesn't

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look like a lot of wind and very little rain

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in the forecast if anything's coming through, just a little

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bit of drizzle. And Nick, I think that's kind of

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the big story going into this because if there's no

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if there's no harsh conditions, I think this course is gettable.

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You have to be accurate off the tee. There's really

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really treacherous fairway bunkers. Of course, some of the bunkers

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around the greens are really deep. There's out of bounds

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that are really close to the fairways. But without wind,

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without rain, what do we always say, justin Thomas as

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if you give us receptive greens, we're gonna be able

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to tear it up. So I love you know Calamity

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Corner as an iconic hole as well. But I watched

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the Hole by Hole on YouTube twice last night and

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I'm like, accurate shots off the tee gives you a

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green light at these at these at these greens and

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at these pins. I'm going with potential double digit uh

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for the for the winner. If the weather kicks up

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and we get craziness coming in, it could change it.

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But as beautiful and as hard as some of these

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holes are, accurate t shots are going to get you there.

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You got to stay out of these bunkers, a lot

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of these bunkers, and we have to come out sideways

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on the fairway or you know, around the green. But

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without the weather, I think these guys are going to

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have a pretty good go of it. I expect a

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very competitive tournament. I think it's going to be a

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little bit more low scoring than people think. What is

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your take on Royal Port Rush?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean as far as the weather goes, the

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wind certainly seems to be not too crazy. It does

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pick up a little bit on the weekend according to

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the weather channels. What I'm saying now ten to twenty

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on Saturday Sunday, and there is rain better than Friday

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Saturday Sunday. But that when I look yesterday, it was

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better than fifty percent every day. Now Thursday looks like

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it's pretty much not going to happen. And so the

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one thing we know about this weather is that it's

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going to change rapidly and quickly, and you might as

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well might have look this far ahead. But I do

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think we'll get a little bit of rate somewhat throughout

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the week. But from what I've unders understood a couple

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of reports I read is obviously I mean, I don't

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live in the area, but it's been a particularly dry

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lead up to this tournament.

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Speaker 2: And I'm talking I'm not talking about the week. I'm

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talking a couple of months here.

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Speaker 3: So the players are talking about it playing a little

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firmer and faster even if it is raining. So that'll

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be interesting and that that always comes in and play

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at links courses on these on the fairways, you know

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they you hit a good faraway in it runs and runs,

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and because you know the fairways are like this and

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they funnel to those bunkers, that's where people are going

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to get in trouble.

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Speaker 2: So it'll be a little bit of thinking, you know,

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after t it's not just grip it and rip it.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean, if the weather isn't there, honestly,

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I think it could be scoring very similar to what

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we saw last week, because I think the weather could

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be kind of a meer image, except again for maybe

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the rain. It doesn't seem like it's going to be

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their temps, a kind of seasonal mid sixties whatever. I

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was just like watching it and it's like it always

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seems so gloomy no matter what, even nice days Louy

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on TV when you're watching the championship.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm wondering if we're going to see a lot

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of three woods off of the team with some of

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these guys. Like you said, if it's dry and there's

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a lot of role, maybe a lot of role is

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not what these guys want. And Nick, if we do

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get some drizzle, we do get a little bit of rain,

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it's just perfect for those guys slows down, uncontrollable roles.

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So I think this sets up for a really really

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good conditions for these guys.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I mean there's a couple of interesting notes

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I have from you know this the event in general.

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I mean, last time we played here was like twenty nineteen,

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lowering one by six. I didn't even realize he won

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by that many. But the recipe for him that week

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probably the same recipe you're going to need this week.

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He was twenty second in the field. Fairways hit, so

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not the best, but you can't miss a lot of

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failies and expect to do well. But he only missed

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fifteen greens over the four rounds, which led the field.

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So the guy simply just got the ball on the

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green and then he ranked third and strokes gained around

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the green, so we did miss He was getting up

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and down everywhere, so obviously very good recipe. There nine

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out of the top ten players in twenty nineteen Andy

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are in the.

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Speaker 2: Field this week.

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Speaker 3: There's a total of fifty two players, so there is

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you know, it was close enough to this year that

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there's a lot of you know, people that played in

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that event you could look back to and see how

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they did. Eighty people in the field played last week

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at the Scottish I do believe that's a true advantage

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with just getting used in the links course and the

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fescue greens. And obviously the time difference the fesc greens

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is kind of interesting too, because unless you play over

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here regularly, it is different than you see in the States.

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And I don't know if you saw that when Rory

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his comment, I think he said something like these greens suck,

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as he was losing a couple of putts, but it

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is true, like the fescue greens are a little bit

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different than if you're not used to it, or maybe

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even just having that one week additional play last.

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Speaker 2: Week, I think it is an advantage there. But those

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are some of my notes. I mean, it's there's.

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Speaker 3: Elevation change here, which is, you know, unusual in the area,

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but it's a pretty good amount of elevation change. And

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then of course you just have to avoid the cabbage

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as I like to call it. And it'll be interesting

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to see what they call it this week. But there's hummocks,

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there's hollows, there's gorse. I mean, they call this crap,

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you know, all sorts of different names. But it is

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dangerous out there. If you're you are missing, those are

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just unplayables. Drop the ball now, hopefully avoid the double douge.

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So I mean, of course it's gonna play well. I

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don't know how the weather will be, but I think

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it is gettable, like you said, and if it's not,

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there's five par threes and three par fives, par seventy

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one and the last par five is on hold twelve.

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Speaker 2: So the last six holes of this tournament are gonna

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be tough.

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Speaker 3: If you're trailing to try, you're gonna have to be

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forcing berdies on par par fours or part three, so

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it's gonna be tough to come back from. It's that'll

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be interesting to watch too as the tournament back well.

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Speaker 1: By far, the weirdest player in the top ten from

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twenty nineteen that nobody would guess is Lee Westwood. Oh,

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I guess you can't play this, so yeah, Lee Westwood

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finishing finishing fourth was that was the one that nobody

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would Ricky Fowls the other top ten that would be

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tough to guess. So let's go over a favorite hole

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and the eighteenth hole ranking. There's a lot of obvious

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holes that I think you could make as your favorite,

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but I'm just gonna go with the first hole. I

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like this one, four hundred and sixteen yard par four.

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I love that there's out of bounds on the left

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and the right sides of the fairway. The t shot

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can be treacherous and massive trouble on the left side

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of the green with really deep bunker, really deep rough.

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It's a short hole, but this could really set the

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tone good or bad for a year round. And I

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know you can say that about every first hole, but

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this one, this one, you could you could get yourself

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into a lot of trouble, and taking a double bogie

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on the first hole is just going to be a disaster,

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and somebody's going to do it. Somebody's going to hit

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the ball out of bounds on the first hole and

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make a mess of it. So I like the first hole.

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Keep your eye on that one, and then we'll go

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to the eighteenth hole. Ranking I have. This is a

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six point two. It's pretty good finishing hole. I was

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surprised by this third hardest hole in twenty nineteen because

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on the surface it doesn't look that difficult, but their

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drive has out of bounds really close to the left side,

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dangerous rough on the right, and it gets super super

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narrow in the landing area, so you might be looking

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at iron or three wood off the tee. I think

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you're gonna see a lot of three woods off of

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this one. Green doesn't look too difficult, but there's runoff

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areas for some pretty testy chips for up and downs. Again,

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doesn't look too difficult, but pretty interesting. That was third

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most difficult in twenty nineteen, so it can play hard.

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There's there could be some drama if we got a

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lot of guys up by the lead on this one,

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so pretty good finishing hole at six point two. Let's

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go to our chart, Nick, Let's take a look at

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total strokes gain. Let's see what we can take away

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from this. We look at the three months, twelve months,

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and six months. Here. Of course it's littered with all

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of the big names. What's our takeaway from the chart

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this week?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, of course all the big names you'd expect here.

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Speaker 3: I always start off to say how important this is

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as far as signatures and majors and playoffs go. These

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big events sixty seven percent of the time since the

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start of twenty twenty three, so almost three full seasons now,

248
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the winner has been in this top ten over the

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last twelve months.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 3: I will add, and I've said this the last few weeks,

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that you know, on other type of events, if it's

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not the top ten, it's you guys aren't far behind.

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You know, they might be in the top twenty where

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that winner actually comes. So even if it's not here,

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it's not you're not going really deep down on the list.

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Speaker 2: And I think.

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Speaker 3: Before last week there was it was twenty four or

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twenty seven events on tour this year, the winner had

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ranked in the top twenty five either in the twelve,

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six or three month window. Got her Up's a really

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good example last week if you if you look at

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his strokes game number heading into last week, he ranked

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seventyeth seven zero in the field and strokes game over

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the last twelve months, but in the last three months

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he was nineteenth, and the book books had him as

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the fourteenth or fifteenth depending on which book you were

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looking at Odds Favorite.

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Speaker 2: So they're not dumb. They know the form he was in,

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they know how well he was playing. But that's just

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proves the point.

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Speaker 3: Maybe you're not there in the ten twelve months, but

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you got to look in these other one those two

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to six and three months. I just organized it by

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the twelve months because it's been a long term proven winner,

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but short term these ones are good too.

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Speaker 2: Anyway, list this year is who you'd expect.

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Speaker 3: Scotty of course, will always continually the way I would

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say at this point, it's going to take like him

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playing poorly for an entire year not to be him

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for him to be on top of this list.

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Speaker 2: John Rahm excellent Major season so far this year.

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Speaker 3: While deserving that that spot there Rory flashes of is

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a return to for him last week. I got to

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give got her up all the props in the world

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for dueling it out and being in the final drive.

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Speaker 2: With them and winning that last week.

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Speaker 3: But that should give Rory more confidence coming back here

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of course, where he wanted to shoot a sixty one

290
00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:55,759
two or something like that here, So he's got that,

291
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and then you know, I don't know how I feel

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about Deshambo at the Open Championship, and I'd like.

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Speaker 2: To get your take on him.

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Speaker 3: Obviously all the other majors he's right there, but I

295
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don't know that he's had like a really good showing

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00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:10,360
on these link type of courses. It's never really been

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somewhere you can overpower, even though you think at times

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00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:14,600
you should be able to, but as soon as you

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miss it in this crap and you have taken penalties,

300
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it's just not worth it. Henley, he's straight and narrow.

301
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He should be a guy that should avoid the trouble

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and that's usually the recipe at.

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Speaker 2: The Open Championship.

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Speaker 3: It's not the guy that's just making Bertie after Burry

305
00:13:28,399 --> 00:13:30,879
is the guy that's just slowly avoiding the doubles over

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seventy two holes.

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Speaker 2: Fleetwood. Come on, If there's ever a week, could it

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00:13:37,039 --> 00:13:39,480
be this week for Tommy? And then Colin is I.

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Speaker 3: Think a major avoid for a lot of people right

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now with everything going on with him.

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Speaker 2: The rest of the list here a couple of guys

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on the Live.

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Speaker 3: Tour hat and Nieman I put down there the notables

314
00:13:48,279 --> 00:13:50,960
because he's been playing very very well. Strakap playing well well,

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00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:52,759
had a good bage class week, and of course Sane

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Lowery I put on here because he's the six year

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removed defending champion of Royalport Rush. But as you can see,

318
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his form is declining. You can see the numbers dropping

319
00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:04,919
here in the three month window compared to the twelve

320
00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:07,960
so not in grade four right now. Probably not worth

321
00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:11,039
a thirty five to one bet on a guy that's

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trending the wrong way. We even get a guy's like

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00:14:13,399 --> 00:14:16,240
Straka at fifty to one, even neither in the fifty

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five to one as comparable. So that's my take on

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the top ten this week.

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Speaker 1: Leave this chart up for just a second, real quick dan,

327
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So there's one guy on this list who finished top

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five at the last year's Open, Championship and has finished

329
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top ten in his last three tournaments. Do you know

330
00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:36,440
it is? So who finished top five at the Open

331
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Championship last year and who finished top ten in the

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00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:43,720
last three tournaments this year? So play great at this

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00:14:43,799 --> 00:14:46,960
event last year in great form? Do you know? Do

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00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:49,120
you know who it is? It's it's just always the

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00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:50,639
most underrated guy on this list.

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Speaker 3: I'm trying to look at the lists of going top ten.

337
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It wasn't Fleetwood Shopping's probably pretty close. I don't know

338
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if he's been top ten ing every week there, but

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he obviously won last here. Not Lowry Strack was top

340
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five last year.

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Speaker 1: Is it's Rakka, It's Russell Henley just always is just

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always there. He's just always finishing. It's just always playing great.

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He's yeah, he's sixty, he's sixty six to one. He's

344
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behind Jakie Neeman. Uh, it's behind Patrick can't Ley. I mean,

345
00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:33,480
it's just the guys just always criminally, criminally undervalued and

346
00:15:33,639 --> 00:15:35,679
uh yeah, we should be making a lot more money

347
00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:38,360
off of Russell Henley. So yeah, Russell Henley. It's just

348
00:15:38,399 --> 00:15:42,000
it's always Russell Henley. It's always Russe. So thought that

349
00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:45,559
was interesting all right, let's go to players that can

350
00:15:45,879 --> 00:15:48,879
trip you up. If you're watching this on Tuesday, it

351
00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:52,360
is five dollars Tuesday. Over at wager talk, all handicappers

352
00:15:52,799 --> 00:15:54,879
can put up a play for five dollars. I have

353
00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:58,039
an open Championship best bet that is up, so take

354
00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:00,399
advantage of that. If you're watching this on Tuesday. If

355
00:16:00,399 --> 00:16:03,159
you're watching this on Wednesday, the open Championship packs are up.

356
00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:05,200
Nick will have something. I will have something as well.

357
00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:07,840
You get all plays for that over at wager talk

358
00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:10,000
dot com, So take advantage of that, especially if you're

359
00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:11,720
watching this on Tuesday. Take manage of that five dollars

360
00:16:11,799 --> 00:16:14,759
Tuesday play. You can try open championship plays, you can

361
00:16:14,759 --> 00:16:17,799
try other sports from other handicappers. Really really good tool

362
00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:19,919
to use, especially when there's not a lot of sports

363
00:16:19,919 --> 00:16:22,120
going on this week. Busy week for Nick and I,

364
00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:25,159
but for the baseball fans, not a lot going on

365
00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:27,639
this week. All right, let's go to players that can

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00:16:27,679 --> 00:16:31,080
trip you up. I'm gonna stun people with the with

367
00:16:31,159 --> 00:16:34,120
these first two here, Nick, I'm going right to the

368
00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:36,600
top here. I'm going Scotti Scheffler as a player that

369
00:16:36,639 --> 00:16:40,039
can trip you up. He's the betting favorite he's the

370
00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:41,799
betting favorite, which means.

371
00:16:43,879 --> 00:16:49,159
Speaker 2: Top two, what's tripped up? Top top five, top what

372
00:16:49,279 --> 00:16:50,799
is it? Where are we going?

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00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:53,559
Speaker 1: Well, he's a favorite's he's he's a deep, he's a

374
00:16:53,559 --> 00:16:55,639
big favorite. And all of his head to head matchups,

375
00:16:55,639 --> 00:16:58,000
so he has to beat everybody. You know, he's gotta

376
00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:01,879
beat Rory, he's gotta beat Zander, he gotta beat Rom

377
00:17:01,919 --> 00:17:05,079
And the fact is he's just not that great at

378
00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:08,519
the Open Championship. He's never finished better than seventh at

379
00:17:08,559 --> 00:17:10,759
an Open Championship. I need him to be top three

380
00:17:11,079 --> 00:17:13,519
to return to return value at this if you're gonna

381
00:17:13,559 --> 00:17:14,599
bet on him to.

382
00:17:14,599 --> 00:17:15,440
Speaker 2: Hit on that real quick.

383
00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:18,559
Speaker 3: Last week he led the field to the green at

384
00:17:18,559 --> 00:17:21,279
the Scotch So to prove your point about links, he

385
00:17:21,319 --> 00:17:22,559
just couldn't get the ball in the hole. Maybe that

386
00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:24,920
or something to say for what Rory was complaining about.

387
00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:27,319
You know that bestI drass let it out. Maybe the

388
00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:29,519
week will help him. But he's minus two hundred for

389
00:17:29,519 --> 00:17:32,319
a top ten, So I understand your value hard.

390
00:17:34,519 --> 00:17:36,839
Speaker 1: I can't roll my eyes enough at Rory getting mad

391
00:17:36,839 --> 00:17:40,039
at the greens. Maybe I don't know, maybe maybe maybe

392
00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:42,039
it was me, but maybe it's how you Yeah, so

393
00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:44,519
you know, he's third in total strokes gained over the

394
00:17:44,599 --> 00:17:49,240
last thirty days. That's not number one. His putting is

395
00:17:49,279 --> 00:17:54,480
a concern. He's outside the top what's that?

396
00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:56,960
Speaker 2: Who's number won in that thirty day went down?

397
00:17:58,079 --> 00:18:04,440
Speaker 1: Probably Henley, It might be it might be Harry Hall.

398
00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:05,799
Speaker 2: You keep going, I'll tell you, okay.

399
00:18:06,559 --> 00:18:08,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, So he's outside the top thirty in terms of

400
00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:10,880
putting in the last thirty days, and I need a

401
00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:14,200
perfect performance from him, and Leak's golf just hasn't brought

402
00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:17,000
out the best in him. You know, here is here

403
00:18:17,079 --> 00:18:20,759
is last four finishes seventh, twenty third, twenty first and eighth.

404
00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:23,960
So Scottie Shuffler is just not a guy I can

405
00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:26,920
bet on. I can't lay him as heavy chalk again

406
00:18:27,039 --> 00:18:28,920
in some of these matchups. In fact, I would look

407
00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:32,039
at going in the opposite direction. So, yes, who's number one?

408
00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:33,079
Speaker 2: Russell Henley?

409
00:18:33,799 --> 00:18:35,039
Speaker 1: Of course it's Russell Henley.

410
00:18:35,079 --> 00:18:37,599
Speaker 3: It's always he only played two events, but it's Russell Henley,

411
00:18:37,839 --> 00:18:39,160
Rory Scott.

412
00:18:42,559 --> 00:18:47,000
Speaker 1: Uh Russell Henley my guy. All right, I'm gonna be

413
00:18:47,079 --> 00:18:50,759
villified for this one. But Shane Lowry is a guy

414
00:18:50,799 --> 00:18:54,400
that I think can trip people up because everybody's gonna

415
00:18:54,440 --> 00:19:00,319
be playing Shane Lowry. Everybody and listen is too. Twenty

416
00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:04,279
nineteen performance was an all timer, but this feels like

417
00:19:04,319 --> 00:19:09,240
a trap. Missed the cut in both Majors and Ice Cold.

418
00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:13,039
Statistically outside the top fifty and total strokes gained over

419
00:19:13,039 --> 00:19:17,359
the last three months, he's behind Matteya Schmid and Max Graserman.

420
00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:21,119
I know people are gonna point to his course history.

421
00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,960
I get it, but he's only recorded one top five

422
00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:27,960
in Open Championships in the last eight and he has

423
00:19:28,039 --> 00:19:33,599
five missed cuts to his name in Open Championships, so statistically,

424
00:19:33,799 --> 00:19:37,119
he's not that good at Open Championships. But everybody's gonna

425
00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:39,319
focus on an event that was six years ago. So

426
00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:41,319
I'm not gonna be betting on Shane Lowry. I think

427
00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:44,799
he's overpriced, and if I'm wrong, fine, but I will

428
00:19:44,839 --> 00:19:47,640
be laying off Shane Lowry and everyone's gonna be on him,

429
00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:50,799
and that's what the books want. The books want everybody

430
00:19:50,839 --> 00:19:52,880
to be on one side, and I think everyone's gonna

431
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:54,319
be on Lowry, and I'm here to tell you I

432
00:19:54,319 --> 00:19:56,839
think he's gonna disappoint and I'm gonna go with Bryson

433
00:19:56,920 --> 00:19:58,880
Dashianbeau you missed him, you said you'd love to get

434
00:19:59,279 --> 00:20:02,119
my take on it. This is just a really really

435
00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:05,799
bad fit. He loves to overpower courses. He cannot bulldoze

436
00:20:05,799 --> 00:20:09,759
his way around here. And his history at Open Championships

437
00:20:09,759 --> 00:20:14,759
are terrible. Miscut sixtieth a, thirty third, miscut, fifty first, miscut.

438
00:20:15,559 --> 00:20:18,599
He's just never been good, whether he's on the PGA Tour,

439
00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:21,759
whether he's on live, this is just not a good style.

440
00:20:22,079 --> 00:20:26,640
Like it's like you said, the runoff areas, it just

441
00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:29,880
it funnels it into bunkers, it funnels it into the

442
00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:32,519
fescue or the rough. And this is just not his

443
00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:35,799
type of course. It never has been minis. Yeah, like

444
00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:38,559
I said, miss the cut, finished sixtieth last two Open championships.

445
00:20:38,599 --> 00:20:41,000
So and he also missed the cut here in twenty nineteen,

446
00:20:41,039 --> 00:20:44,400
for what that's worth. So local knowledge finesse matters most.

447
00:20:44,519 --> 00:20:46,839
Bryson easy fade. For me this week, I will not

448
00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:49,759
be betting on Bryson day Schambeau. Now, if you want

449
00:20:49,799 --> 00:20:53,200
to do a like a like a complete like opposite,

450
00:20:53,559 --> 00:20:56,839
like you want to like go contrarian, put Bryson in

451
00:20:56,880 --> 00:20:59,640
your lineups, But for me, I will not be doing that.

452
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:01,599
I will be doing that, so Nick, tell her what

453
00:21:01,599 --> 00:21:03,000
we have up. But Wade, you're talking, and then let's

454
00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:04,599
get your favorite favorite for this week?

455
00:21:05,279 --> 00:21:08,200
Speaker 3: Sure it is Tuesday's Andy mentioned, I too have a

456
00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:11,200
five dollars play up and available for the MLS. There's

457
00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:14,039
a full Wednesday Night MLS card this week, so I

458
00:21:14,039 --> 00:21:15,640
have the fin out of playoff, plus it's a couple

459
00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:18,519
other additional plays for the Wednesday Night card. And of

460
00:21:18,519 --> 00:21:20,880
course the Open Championship pack is up and ready now.

461
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:23,240
It will include all four days plus any ads throughout

462
00:21:23,279 --> 00:21:25,640
the week. Already have a couple of plays loaded. We'll

463
00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:28,599
be adding more as the week goes on. But MLS

464
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:31,680
and Open Championship is all that's going on for me

465
00:21:31,799 --> 00:21:34,599
right now. And then we have the League's Cup, which

466
00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:37,519
is a tournament MLS and Lega MX starting in a

467
00:21:37,599 --> 00:21:39,440
two weeks time, so I'll have a pack up for

468
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:40,720
that probably by next week.

469
00:21:40,559 --> 00:21:43,440
Speaker 2: Week air next week's show, whatever that tournament is.

470
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:48,440
Speaker 1: After the last the year, All right, favorite favorite, I

471
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:50,960
don't even know who your favorite favorite is this week.

472
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:52,799
I wanted to wanted to keep it a surprise. Who

473
00:21:52,839 --> 00:21:53,720
you got for us?

474
00:21:54,039 --> 00:21:58,920
Speaker 3: It's your one and done, It's it's Rob Scottie. I mean,

475
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:00,880
let's I gotta be honest. At twelve to one, I

476
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:03,799
think he's a little overvalue here based on his results

477
00:22:03,839 --> 00:22:06,519
this year, but I do think he's playing very well.

478
00:22:06,519 --> 00:22:07,559
Speaker 2: He's like the only guy on Live.

479
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,759
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm sorry, Bryson's obviously performed very well in

480
00:22:11,839 --> 00:22:15,279
the majors, but he's the only guy on Live that's

481
00:22:15,319 --> 00:22:20,240
performing well week to week on Live. It's ridiculous how

482
00:22:20,279 --> 00:22:22,720
and remarkable how consistent he's been since joining in the

483
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:26,200
two years. You know the data, Andy, but twenty three

484
00:22:26,319 --> 00:22:31,720
career Live starts one withdraw, eleventh place finish a couple

485
00:22:31,759 --> 00:22:35,680
of tournaments ago, and twenty one top tens. He almost

486
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:37,720
won again this past week, so twenty one of twenty

487
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:39,599
three top tens. But he plays, he finishes top ten.

488
00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:41,880
Nobody else is doing that because he cares and he's

489
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,920
trying to actually win these events. And then it's I

490
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:47,680
think it's helped its his major record. He's actually putting

491
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:50,359
in the effort, you know, obviously behind the scenes, but

492
00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:52,960
each week, as he's playing well, how has that transition

493
00:22:53,079 --> 00:22:57,799
into his major results? Tie for fourteenth Masters, tie for eighth, PGA,

494
00:22:57,880 --> 00:22:59,559
tie for seventh at the US Open.

495
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:03,559
Speaker 2: I mean, you got to have It's like he can't just.

496
00:23:03,519 --> 00:23:05,640
Speaker 3: Go through the motions and be doing scrimmages all the time,

497
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:07,599
and all of a sudden he expected to play game speed, right,

498
00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:09,359
So I kind of think that is helping n He's

499
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:11,319
just grinding it out every single week, and he's playing

500
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:12,279
very well on lift.

501
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 2: He finished tie for seventh at the Open last year.

502
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 3: He's been he's been in the top eleven and four

503
00:23:18,559 --> 00:23:20,279
out of the last five Opens.

504
00:23:20,319 --> 00:23:22,839
Speaker 2: Like he clearly knows links golf and could play around here.

505
00:23:23,559 --> 00:23:23,680
Speaker 3: Uh.

506
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:26,319
Speaker 2: He he's.

507
00:23:27,319 --> 00:23:28,960
Speaker 3: He's just got He's just there. He's just got that

508
00:23:29,039 --> 00:23:31,680
four right now that I really really love. I mentioned

509
00:23:31,839 --> 00:23:37,000
he nearly won again last week, so he has a

510
00:23:37,079 --> 00:23:39,720
runner up twenty twenty three, and he finished tie for

511
00:23:39,759 --> 00:23:41,759
third in twenty twenty one at the Open. He obviously

512
00:23:41,759 --> 00:23:43,880
hasn't won yet, but he's right right there. So there's

513
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:46,160
too many things pointing in John Robb's direction. Again, I

514
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:48,519
don't love his price, but I like his price better

515
00:23:48,519 --> 00:23:50,119
than Rory and Scotti.

516
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:51,079
Speaker 2: At twelve to one.

517
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,680
Speaker 3: Top tens plus one thirty five, it would be an

518
00:23:53,759 --> 00:23:57,119
interesting matchup guy to look at this week, especially if

519
00:23:57,160 --> 00:23:59,839
he is paired with a Scotty Scheffler, Who would you

520
00:23:59,839 --> 00:24:02,440
take making that scenario. In fact, I'm gonna pull up

521
00:24:02,759 --> 00:24:05,559
see who Rob is with right now while we're talking.

522
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:09,559
Speaker 1: All right, Yeah, I would. I would take Rom. I

523
00:24:09,559 --> 00:24:11,319
know he's gonna be plus money because they're not putting

524
00:24:11,319 --> 00:24:15,319
Scottie Scheffler as a dog against Danny Boy. Would I

525
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:18,400
would ever so slightly lean to John Rahman that one.

526
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:20,839
So yeah, we'll do, uh, We'll do Draft Kings Darlings.

527
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:22,319
We'll do a long shot and then we'll do kind

528
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:23,759
of a rapid fire with some of the head to

529
00:24:23,799 --> 00:24:25,799
head matchups and some of the other bets that they

530
00:24:25,799 --> 00:24:28,640
have postable recording this Tuesday morning. So let's take a

531
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:33,400
look at Draft Kings Darlings. Great week for DFS. There

532
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:35,119
are a ton I had. Most of the time, I'm

533
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:36,680
really searching for these darlings.

534
00:24:36,799 --> 00:24:38,839
Speaker 2: Oh I loved I.

535
00:24:38,799 --> 00:24:42,480
Speaker 1: Love some of these lower priced guys. So finished eighty

536
00:24:42,559 --> 00:24:44,640
ninth out of one hundred and fifty last week. I

537
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:46,839
had two players missed the cut. So still having one

538
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:48,680
of the best years ever, not not one of the best.

539
00:24:48,839 --> 00:24:50,920
It's been my best year in DFS. It would take

540
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:54,599
a colossal collapse for this not to be my best

541
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:57,519
year ever. So yeah, let's take a look at some

542
00:24:57,599 --> 00:25:00,839
of these guys who are really lower pro I'm gonna

543
00:25:00,839 --> 00:25:05,039
start with Jordan Smith at fifty nine hundred steel rock

544
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:08,119
solid track record in big events. He's missed just two

545
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:10,920
cuts all year the DP World Tour. He made the

546
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:13,400
cut at the US Open, followed that up with a

547
00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:16,200
twenty second place finish at the Scottish Open last week,

548
00:25:16,279 --> 00:25:18,680
so he can handle links golf. Also made the cut

549
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,160
in two of his last three Open championships. At fifty

550
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:24,119
nine hundred, if Jordan Smith can get US weekend points,

551
00:25:24,279 --> 00:25:26,880
absolute steal, so I'll start my lineup with Jordan Smith.

552
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:30,519
Harry Hall at sixty four hundred blows my mind, Nick.

553
00:25:30,799 --> 00:25:32,799
I mean, this guy is one of the most consistent

554
00:25:32,839 --> 00:25:36,720
guys on tour right now. Twelve straight made cuts, finished

555
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:42,039
inside the top forty in eight consecutive starts. Betting markets

556
00:25:42,039 --> 00:25:46,039
have been underpriced. DFS has been underpriced over the last

557
00:25:46,039 --> 00:25:48,680
three months. He ranks twenty first in this field in

558
00:25:48,759 --> 00:25:52,279
total strokes gain. His entire game is on point, putting

559
00:25:52,319 --> 00:25:56,000
us through the roof at this price, incredible upside. That's

560
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:57,799
what I love about Harry Hall, is he gives you

561
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:00,680
upside like Jordan Smith that we're hoping he makes the cut.

562
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:02,519
All right, get us a few points on the weekend.

563
00:26:02,519 --> 00:26:05,480
Harry Hall can give you a top twenty upside. And

564
00:26:05,519 --> 00:26:07,759
then we got to go with Matthew Fitzpatrick at seventy

565
00:26:07,799 --> 00:26:12,480
eight hundred. We talked about him, perfect blend of form, pedigree.

566
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:16,440
You know he's had success at Major's, back to back

567
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:20,160
top ten finishes, fourth place last week at the Scottish Open,

568
00:26:20,559 --> 00:26:23,720
peaking at the right time, tenth in the field and

569
00:26:23,759 --> 00:26:26,880
total strokes gained last thirty days. So seventy eight hundred

570
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:28,839
one of the best all around plays on the board

571
00:26:28,839 --> 00:26:32,279
here Matthew Fitzpatrick. So Jordan Smith, Harry Hall and Matthew Fitzpatrick,

572
00:26:32,279 --> 00:26:36,559
those are my DraftKings, darlings. This is the first event

573
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:40,240
of the year that Scotti Scheffler has played, and he's

574
00:26:40,319 --> 00:26:44,279
not in my DFS lineup. Nick I could not make

575
00:26:44,319 --> 00:26:46,440
the case for him. So my full lineup is on

576
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:49,440
the digital download on my page wt dot buzz slash

577
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:51,319
al so we can get the five dollars plays. We

578
00:26:51,319 --> 00:26:54,279
can get all plays for the Open Championship free article.

579
00:26:54,319 --> 00:26:55,960
It gives you a course overview gives you all the

580
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:57,599
write up some players that can trip you up in

581
00:26:57,680 --> 00:27:01,359
DraftKings Darlings, and the full lineup age of that's free download.

582
00:27:01,559 --> 00:27:03,599
It'll be up by the time that you're watching that.

583
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:06,119
But yeah, first of it that Scottie Shuffler has played,

584
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:08,519
and then he is not in my lineup. Too expensive.

585
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,319
I don't like his history here at link style, and

586
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:13,759
I think there's much much better value on the board.

587
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:16,079
So all right, let's take a look at a long

588
00:27:16,079 --> 00:27:17,839
shot and then we'll take a look at some bets.

589
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:19,720
Who's your favorite long shot this week?

590
00:27:20,559 --> 00:27:23,839
Speaker 2: You mentioned him Harry Hall one hundred, twenty one, one

591
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:27,240
hundred and twenty to one, and let's go top.

592
00:27:27,039 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 3: Ten, plus eight hundred, top twenty. I really love plus

593
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:31,119
three to thirty.

594
00:27:31,759 --> 00:27:34,720
Speaker 1: Don't you threaten me with a good time? Top twenty

595
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:36,519
a plus three thirty on this guy?

596
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:40,079
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, exactly. I mean we just gotta ride, you

597
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:42,160
gotta ride the train. Another top twenty last week in

598
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:44,680
the Scottish seven now in a row.

599
00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:46,119
Speaker 2: It included one of the majors.

600
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,680
Speaker 3: He had PGA. He didn't play in the US Open,

601
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:52,440
but his drivers like it's whatever, it's either good nor bad.

602
00:27:52,519 --> 00:27:55,160
But driver is not a huge factor here at the

603
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:58,880
Links courses, so irons better than average, but his short

604
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:02,680
game very good and you know it as much as

605
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:06,279
I do. His putting is absolutely lights out. He's gain

606
00:28:06,319 --> 00:28:08,960
strokes in eight straight starts on the green. He ranks

607
00:28:09,039 --> 00:28:12,480
second in this field in that category during the same

608
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:14,680
time frame, only behind Sam Burns, and over the last

609
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:18,079
twelve months he ranks fourth, also behind Sam Burns and

610
00:28:18,079 --> 00:28:20,519
then a DP World Tour guy and a live guy

611
00:28:20,599 --> 00:28:23,359
that is just hard to compare the actual data points.

612
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:25,279
So he is one of the best plotters in the field.

613
00:28:25,599 --> 00:28:27,599
His short game is phenomenal. You're gonna have to be

614
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:31,039
very creative obviously around there, around this course and around

615
00:28:31,039 --> 00:28:34,440
any lands type of course. He's gained strokes putting Andy

616
00:28:34,799 --> 00:28:37,880
in thirty one of his last thirty three starts dating

617
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:40,359
back over the last thirteen months. So you imagine putting

618
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:42,559
this guy's skill set on the greens with Scotty's skill

619
00:28:42,559 --> 00:28:45,200
set on the t de Green. I mean, this guy

620
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:49,839
would win by seventeen every time he teamed up. Unfortunately,

621
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:53,359
this is his first Open Championships. You got no history

622
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:56,440
in this event, so expecting him to win does seem

623
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:58,640
a little far fetched, but top ten or top twenty

624
00:28:58,839 --> 00:29:00,559
certainly worth the luck. And I do love that he

625
00:29:00,599 --> 00:29:03,319
played last week. He played well. His form was just

626
00:29:03,359 --> 00:29:06,400
too good at this price to pass up one.

627
00:29:06,359 --> 00:29:08,880
Speaker 2: Hundred and twenty to one. Kid me gotta throw some

628
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:10,480
money on this s guy. Let's go Harry.

629
00:29:11,519 --> 00:29:16,279
Speaker 1: Bringing home Harry best hat game right now in all

630
00:29:16,319 --> 00:29:19,440
of Also, if you guys could please do his favorite

631
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:21,880
hit the like button. If you're enjoying the content really

632
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,359
helps the algorithm out, and subscribe to the channel. We're

633
00:29:24,359 --> 00:29:26,559
literally like one hundred people away from two hundred and

634
00:29:26,599 --> 00:29:28,799
ten thousand. I was telling someone the other day, I

635
00:29:28,799 --> 00:29:35,720
think I remember celebrating twenty thousand to the YouTube channel. Yeah,

636
00:29:35,799 --> 00:29:37,839
it was. It was that's we we're covering.

637
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 2: We're covering like a Bulgarian soccer league or something like that.

638
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 1: Remember, yes, absolutely absolutely, I remember those days. Well. Yeah,

639
00:29:48,039 --> 00:29:50,200
subscribe to the channel. Joined the wager Talk family, and

640
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:52,279
you gotta leave a comment. You have to tell us

641
00:29:52,279 --> 00:29:54,920
who you like this week. Love reading the comments, Love

642
00:29:55,119 --> 00:29:56,839
love seeing who you guys are on. So make sure

643
00:29:56,839 --> 00:29:59,240
you subscribe to the channel. More importantly, leave a comment.

644
00:29:59,319 --> 00:30:02,359
It's a fantastic tournament. Love to see who you guys

645
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:06,200
are on and yeah, yeah, give me, give me the

646
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:09,440
comments about Shane Lowry, Andy, you're crazy. I get it,

647
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:12,039
all right, Nick, Let's go through some bets here. I'm

648
00:30:12,039 --> 00:30:14,640
gonna go to our good friends at bet online. They've

649
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:17,799
got matchups up. Go through a couple that kind of

650
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:19,960
jumped off the page here for me, John, Rob, you

651
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:23,160
can get plus one thirty five against Shuffler, Yeah, minus

652
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:25,240
one sixty five against Scheffler.

653
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 2: You no, no, not against Rob. Again.

654
00:30:29,519 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 3: You've made a lot of good points as to why

655
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:33,559
maybe Scheffler's not the best guy winn this week, and

656
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:34,480
Rob has shown it.

657
00:30:34,559 --> 00:30:36,759
Speaker 2: So I do like that. But I think that's better

658
00:30:36,759 --> 00:30:41,240
than what is plus one thirty five chance to win.

659
00:30:41,279 --> 00:30:42,119
I think it's better than that.

660
00:30:42,359 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 1: So I like there's another one that jumps off the page.

661
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:48,400
I know he hasn't been back to his elite form,

662
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:51,240
but Xander Schoffle is only minus one fifteen against bryceon

663
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:54,960
I get to fade Bryce. Oh okay, yeah, that course

664
00:30:55,079 --> 00:30:58,039
I like that one. Guys worried about.

665
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:02,519
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would over your boy Lowry plus or minus

666
00:31:02,559 --> 00:31:04,880
minus one fifty. So clearly you know books are on that.

667
00:31:05,079 --> 00:31:11,839
Speaker 1: But I don't trust Tommy Fleetwood. Come on, we love

668
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:14,519
watching him, we love him, I just don't love betting

669
00:31:14,559 --> 00:31:18,200
on him. I was worried about Hovelind last week with

670
00:31:18,279 --> 00:31:20,960
the injury. Came out finished eleventh, so I think we

671
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:25,359
can put that to bed. Minus won fifteen against Colin Morrikawa,

672
00:31:26,599 --> 00:31:31,400
who's downright awful last week plus four and missed the cut.

673
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:36,319
Colin Morikawa is a complete disaster right now, like so

674
00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:39,559
I would. I would happily take him. They have Russell

675
00:31:39,599 --> 00:31:44,039
Henley matched up against Sepstrak and Matthew Fitzpatrick. I'm sadly

676
00:31:44,079 --> 00:31:46,119
I'm gonna have to pass. I love to bet on

677
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:47,759
Russell Henley in head to heads, but I can't take

678
00:31:47,799 --> 00:31:53,559
him over either of those guys. Uh here Jordan Speith

679
00:31:53,599 --> 00:31:55,079
minus won fifty against Koepka.

680
00:31:56,319 --> 00:32:01,799
Speaker 3: Ah interesting fifty Now Speeth is loves livs golf right

681
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:05,319
so and kept Us has no form. So you want

682
00:32:05,319 --> 00:32:07,039
to This is a big price to land speak is

683
00:32:07,119 --> 00:32:10,480
kind of a radical obviously, but I will go speak them.

684
00:32:12,559 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 1: Brian Harmon and Cameron Smith basically a Pickham the Live

685
00:32:17,319 --> 00:32:19,920
guy versus Brian Harmon. Who you got?

686
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm always gonna be jaded to Harmon because

687
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:25,880
I won one hundred and twenty five to one bet

688
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:26,640
on him two years ago.

689
00:32:27,359 --> 00:32:28,119
Speaker 1: I remember you did.

690
00:32:28,279 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I love Harmon. I think I will do well.

691
00:32:31,279 --> 00:32:33,000
I don't I don't know what to expect. K Smith.

692
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:35,160
I don't hear his name ever on live right now?

693
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:37,920
Is he contending at all? Is he like? So? I

694
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:41,599
just I can't imagine it on right, So I like it?

695
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:42,960
Speaker 3: All?

696
00:32:43,079 --> 00:32:47,519
Speaker 1: Right? Let's move to some top twenties here. I'm looking

697
00:32:47,519 --> 00:32:49,960
at the DraftKings lines. What's kind of amazing is there's

698
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:56,240
only five guys that are minus money. You got Scheffler

699
00:32:56,559 --> 00:32:59,480
minus four fifty, Roy minus two seventy five, Row minus

700
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:02,480
one ninety, Fleetwood and Bryce and minus one oh five,

701
00:33:02,519 --> 00:33:06,279
and then everyone's plus money for top twenty. Listen, you

702
00:33:06,319 --> 00:33:10,400
could talk me into Shawfley at plus money. You might

703
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:13,240
be able to talk me into Hovelin at plus money,

704
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:16,240
but that Matthew Fitzpatrick at plus one sixty is the

705
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:18,319
one that really jumps off the page for me on

706
00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:20,880
Top twenties. Any others that you might be interested in.

707
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:24,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, One thing I wanted to share is I've been

708
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:28,200
kind of tracking andy the results this season of the

709
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:32,720
top finishers, Like what is the odd range one should

710
00:33:32,759 --> 00:33:35,359
target if you're looking to bet top ten, top five,

711
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:39,640
top twenty. So in a full field event, right, there's

712
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:41,640
an average of twenty three and a half players that

713
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:46,200
finish top twenty. Okay, that's obviously accounting for Tis fifteen

714
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:49,440
of those Andy fifteen of the twenty three, sixty four

715
00:33:49,519 --> 00:33:54,799
percent are at odds at plus three hundred or longer. So, wow,

716
00:33:56,359 --> 00:33:58,960
as much as you look and you see these events,

717
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:02,200
and you're going, yeah, Scotty probably finished out twenty, but

718
00:34:02,279 --> 00:34:04,839
look at all these other guys, You're gonna have a

719
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:07,240
lot of this list of guys that are let's say

720
00:34:07,279 --> 00:34:09,719
even at two hundred or less plus two hundred or

721
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:12,400
less not either missed the cut.

722
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:13,639
Speaker 2: Not be anywhere near in the top twenty.

723
00:34:14,199 --> 00:34:16,159
Speaker 3: It's a lot harder than you think, or a lot

724
00:34:16,199 --> 00:34:18,159
less likely than you think that these top guys, even

725
00:34:18,159 --> 00:34:19,599
though they're playing well, all just all of a sudden

726
00:34:19,679 --> 00:34:21,960
going to finish top twenty. Every time they tee it up,

727
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:24,280
it doesn't happen. So sixty four percent of the time

728
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:26,239
you're getting guys that are at three hundred to one

729
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:29,000
for longer. So in that pool. This week we mentioned

730
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:34,239
Harry Hall I like Nikolai Hoyguard very well. You got

731
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:36,239
the guy Marco Pench who just had a crazy week

732
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:39,159
last week. These guys are all over three hundred to one.

733
00:34:39,159 --> 00:34:43,159
Brian Harmon you just mentioned. You got other players like

734
00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:46,039
Zudenheit plus three sixty, Andrew Novak who had a good

735
00:34:46,079 --> 00:34:49,000
run earlier, plus three sixty, Jordan Smith you mentioned plus

736
00:34:49,039 --> 00:34:51,639
three sixty. I mean there's a lot of decent value

737
00:34:51,639 --> 00:34:53,960
in names down this list. And what I like about

738
00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:57,719
the Open Championship. Remember Thornton, how do we say it?

739
00:35:00,159 --> 00:35:01,880
He's plus four hundred for a top twenty. When are

740
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:03,320
we just talking about him and high on him a

741
00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:05,880
couple of weeks ago? These Open Championships tend to bring

742
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:09,719
out these players that are you know, your European based.

743
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:11,400
Maybe you don't hear about him ever seeing the league

744
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:12,920
and you're like, wait, who's that guy?

745
00:35:13,039 --> 00:35:13,199
Speaker 2: Right?

746
00:35:13,199 --> 00:35:14,840
Speaker 3: They know how to play league's golf. So there's a

747
00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:18,960
lot of me, let's just say, down in this range.

748
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:20,760
So I would not stick to the top of the

749
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:22,400
list if you're looking at these top twenties. I think

750
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:24,960
there's a lot of decent guys getting down there. Even

751
00:35:25,039 --> 00:35:28,559
Jordan Sweets plus two ten, not terrible Ben Griffin plus

752
00:35:28,559 --> 00:35:29,800
two twenty five been playing great.

753
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:31,320
Speaker 2: I don't really know what his Open pedigree is.

754
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:34,000
Speaker 3: The captain Keegan plus two forty. He's playing as good

755
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:36,199
as anyone. So there's a lot of value on these

756
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:38,559
guys down the list. So I would recommend going further

757
00:35:38,599 --> 00:35:40,840
down the list this week then just sticking to the top.

758
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:46,079
Speaker 1: I'm going to go to miss the cuts. Yeah, I'm

759
00:35:46,079 --> 00:35:48,360
gonna go pick on the LIV guys. Brooks kept because

760
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:51,360
plus one ten to miss the cut he's been awful

761
00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:56,320
this year at the Majors, and minus one twenty on

762
00:35:56,559 --> 00:36:01,639
Mark Leishman. Here are Mark lee Schman's last three finishes

763
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:06,159
at the Open Championships. Miscut, miscut, miscut. Yeah, you got

764
00:36:06,199 --> 00:36:06,639
my attention.

765
00:36:07,679 --> 00:36:09,920
Speaker 3: What's his finishes on LIB? I have again another name

766
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:11,719
I've not heard of at all.

767
00:36:13,159 --> 00:36:20,519
Speaker 1: Fiftieth last week. Guys in the field, like, how bad

768
00:36:20,559 --> 00:36:24,960
do you have to beat? A finish fiftieth? So you've

769
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:28,039
got a couple of spring Wolls where he's close, but

770
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:32,239
no Leishman have missed the cut at minus won twenty. Yeah, yeah, yeah,

771
00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:34,880
you definitely have my attention, Absolutely have my attention. So

772
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:36,840
all right, that's going to do it for us for

773
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:40,079
tea time at the Open Championship. Again, if you're watching

774
00:36:40,079 --> 00:36:42,320
this on Tuesday, take advantage of five dollars Tuesday play.

775
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:44,599
Nick's got an MLS play up, I've got an Open

776
00:36:44,679 --> 00:36:47,360
Championship best bet that's up, and then Wednesday will have

777
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:49,920
our full packs out where you get all plays for

778
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:53,239
the rest of the week, including individual round plays and

779
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:55,199
he had to head matchups outright, so those will be

780
00:36:55,199 --> 00:36:57,360
available at wager talk dot com. Again, hit the like

781
00:36:57,400 --> 00:37:00,119
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782
00:37:00,159 --> 00:37:01,920
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783
00:37:02,199 --> 00:37:03,840
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784
00:37:04,519 --> 00:37:06,920
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785
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:09,119
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786
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:12,440
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787
00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:14,239
So good luck, onto your plays, Let's have a great

788
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:16,320
Open Championship. Well, see you next week. Take care