Speaker 1: It's the Open Championship. Me and Nick are going to
royal Port Rush, not actually physically, but we're going there
mentally to research the Open Championship. Welcome everyone to t time.
I'm your host, Andy Lang, being joined as always by
my fellow golf betting expert Nick Borman. We're gonna break
down the Open Championship. We're gonna go over a long shot,
We're gonna go over an outright winner. We're gonna go
for players that can trip you up. One and Don's
Draftking Darlings. And at the end, we're gonna go through
some head to head matchups that have been posted at
the time of recording this, as well as maybe some
top tens, top twenties, try and get you guys ready
to profit off of this tournament. But Nick, let's start
off with the one and dons. We both picked Robert
McIntyre last week, and then I flip flopped and changed
Matthew Fitzpatrick, which never works, and then it finally did.
It did work, So one and done. We're getting down
to the nitty gritty here. Not a whole lot of
guys to pick from. I will go first. I'm going
with John Rahm been very impressed with him. I think
he settled into his live lifestyle, if you will. I
still think he regrets making the move over, but you
can't argue with the success that he's had over on
Live Tour. And the fact is that he's been very,
very good at the Open Championship. It wasn't good in
twenty nineteen at this course, but seventh and second the
last two years at Open Championships, coming off a runner
up at Live. So I expect him to be calm.
I expect him to be in a good mood. I
expect him to be dialed in, and I think the
weather is going to be good where tea times don't
necessarily matter too much. So I'm gonna go with John Rahm,
not really predicting him to win. I don't think he's
there yet, but I expect the top twenty finish from
him upside of the top ten. So John Rahm is
my one and done? Who are you going with?
Speaker 2: For the record?
Speaker 3: For the viewers, we like to try to give out
two different ones now typical one and done. We might
be on the same guy because I love John Rahm
also this week and I probably would be taking him,
but for you know, the sake of the show, I'm
going to give out somebody different, Matth metthwiz Patrick, who
was the right play last week and hopefully doesn't miss
the cut off you this week. But yeah, resurgence for
matt over the last months, six weeks or so. He's
playing great, very consistency, degreed again like we saw back
when he won the US Open, and he does very
well over in these in the league style golf. So
he's a pretty simple play as far as form goes.
Speaker 2: But I love Fitzpatch boy's doing right now. I think
he'll be so hopefully he can go back to back
here with another solid week.
Speaker 1: Yeah, love the play. This is the form of a
guy who can win this thing. Yeah, you know he's
got He's got success at Major's all of a sudden
rounding into form. Couple top tens played great last week,
so I agree with that pick. I'm jealous that I
don't have my Matthew Fitzpatrick for this year, so them, Yeah,
I'm Mulligan in the one and done. Let's let's talk
Royal Port Rush. Here go over the course here, par
seventy one. We'll call it seven three and eighty yards
rugged dunes, steep elevation changes, beautiful coastal views. This is
Harry Colts just it's a masterpiece. It really really is cool.
I really want to go to the weather first. The
weather looks to be pretty good this week. Warm, doesn't
look like a lot of wind and very little rain
in the forecast if anything's coming through, just a little
bit of drizzle. And Nick, I think that's kind of
the big story going into this because if there's no
if there's no harsh conditions, I think this course is gettable.
You have to be accurate off the tee. There's really
really treacherous fairway bunkers. Of course, some of the bunkers
around the greens are really deep. There's out of bounds
that are really close to the fairways. But without wind,
without rain, what do we always say, justin Thomas as
if you give us receptive greens, we're gonna be able
to tear it up. So I love you know Calamity
Corner as an iconic hole as well. But I watched
the Hole by Hole on YouTube twice last night and
I'm like, accurate shots off the tee gives you a
green light at these at these at these greens and
at these pins. I'm going with potential double digit uh
for the for the winner. If the weather kicks up
and we get craziness coming in, it could change it.
But as beautiful and as hard as some of these
holes are, accurate t shots are going to get you there.
You got to stay out of these bunkers, a lot
of these bunkers, and we have to come out sideways
on the fairway or you know, around the green. But
without the weather, I think these guys are going to
have a pretty good go of it. I expect a
very competitive tournament. I think it's going to be a
little bit more low scoring than people think. What is
your take on Royal Port Rush?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean as far as the weather goes, the
wind certainly seems to be not too crazy. It does
pick up a little bit on the weekend according to
the weather channels. What I'm saying now ten to twenty
on Saturday Sunday, and there is rain better than Friday
Saturday Sunday. But that when I look yesterday, it was
better than fifty percent every day. Now Thursday looks like
it's pretty much not going to happen. And so the
one thing we know about this weather is that it's
going to change rapidly and quickly, and you might as
well might have look this far ahead. But I do
think we'll get a little bit of rate somewhat throughout
the week. But from what I've unders understood a couple
of reports I read is obviously I mean, I don't
live in the area, but it's been a particularly dry
lead up to this tournament.
Speaker 2: And I'm talking I'm not talking about the week. I'm
talking a couple of months here.
Speaker 3: So the players are talking about it playing a little
firmer and faster even if it is raining. So that'll
be interesting and that that always comes in and play
at links courses on these on the fairways, you know
they you hit a good faraway in it runs and runs,
and because you know the fairways are like this and
they funnel to those bunkers, that's where people are going
to get in trouble.
Speaker 2: So it'll be a little bit of thinking, you know,
after t it's not just grip it and rip it.
Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean, if the weather isn't there, honestly,
I think it could be scoring very similar to what
we saw last week, because I think the weather could
be kind of a meer image, except again for maybe
the rain. It doesn't seem like it's going to be
their temps, a kind of seasonal mid sixties whatever. I
was just like watching it and it's like it always
seems so gloomy no matter what, even nice days Louy
on TV when you're watching the championship.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm wondering if we're going to see a lot
of three woods off of the team with some of
these guys. Like you said, if it's dry and there's
a lot of role, maybe a lot of role is
not what these guys want. And Nick, if we do
get some drizzle, we do get a little bit of rain,
it's just perfect for those guys slows down, uncontrollable roles.
So I think this sets up for a really really
good conditions for these guys.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I mean there's a couple of interesting notes
I have from you know this the event in general.
I mean, last time we played here was like twenty nineteen,
lowering one by six. I didn't even realize he won
by that many. But the recipe for him that week
probably the same recipe you're going to need this week.
He was twenty second in the field. Fairways hit, so
not the best, but you can't miss a lot of
failies and expect to do well. But he only missed
fifteen greens over the four rounds, which led the field.
So the guy simply just got the ball on the
green and then he ranked third and strokes gained around
the green, so we did miss He was getting up
and down everywhere, so obviously very good recipe. There nine
out of the top ten players in twenty nineteen Andy
are in the.
Speaker 2: Field this week.
Speaker 3: There's a total of fifty two players, so there is
you know, it was close enough to this year that
there's a lot of you know, people that played in
that event you could look back to and see how
they did. Eighty people in the field played last week
at the Scottish I do believe that's a true advantage
with just getting used in the links course and the
fescue greens. And obviously the time difference the fesc greens
is kind of interesting too, because unless you play over
here regularly, it is different than you see in the States.
And I don't know if you saw that when Rory
his comment, I think he said something like these greens suck,
as he was losing a couple of putts, but it
is true, like the fescue greens are a little bit
different than if you're not used to it, or maybe
even just having that one week additional play last.
Speaker 2: Week, I think it is an advantage there. But those
are some of my notes. I mean, it's there's.
Speaker 3: Elevation change here, which is, you know, unusual in the area,
but it's a pretty good amount of elevation change. And
then of course you just have to avoid the cabbage
as I like to call it. And it'll be interesting
to see what they call it this week. But there's hummocks,
there's hollows, there's gorse. I mean, they call this crap,
you know, all sorts of different names. But it is
dangerous out there. If you're you are missing, those are
just unplayables. Drop the ball now, hopefully avoid the double douge.
So I mean, of course it's gonna play well. I
don't know how the weather will be, but I think
it is gettable, like you said, and if it's not,
there's five par threes and three par fives, par seventy
one and the last par five is on hold twelve.
Speaker 2: So the last six holes of this tournament are gonna
be tough.
Speaker 3: If you're trailing to try, you're gonna have to be
forcing berdies on par par fours or part three, so
it's gonna be tough to come back from. It's that'll
be interesting to watch too as the tournament back well.
Speaker 1: By far, the weirdest player in the top ten from
twenty nineteen that nobody would guess is Lee Westwood. Oh,
I guess you can't play this, so yeah, Lee Westwood
finishing finishing fourth was that was the one that nobody
would Ricky Fowls the other top ten that would be
tough to guess. So let's go over a favorite hole
and the eighteenth hole ranking. There's a lot of obvious
holes that I think you could make as your favorite,
but I'm just gonna go with the first hole. I
like this one, four hundred and sixteen yard par four.
I love that there's out of bounds on the left
and the right sides of the fairway. The t shot
can be treacherous and massive trouble on the left side
of the green with really deep bunker, really deep rough.
It's a short hole, but this could really set the
tone good or bad for a year round. And I
know you can say that about every first hole, but
this one, this one, you could you could get yourself
into a lot of trouble, and taking a double bogie
on the first hole is just going to be a disaster,
and somebody's going to do it. Somebody's going to hit
the ball out of bounds on the first hole and
make a mess of it. So I like the first hole.
Keep your eye on that one, and then we'll go
to the eighteenth hole. Ranking I have. This is a
six point two. It's pretty good finishing hole. I was
surprised by this third hardest hole in twenty nineteen because
on the surface it doesn't look that difficult, but their
drive has out of bounds really close to the left side,
dangerous rough on the right, and it gets super super
narrow in the landing area, so you might be looking
at iron or three wood off the tee. I think
you're gonna see a lot of three woods off of
this one. Green doesn't look too difficult, but there's runoff
areas for some pretty testy chips for up and downs. Again,
doesn't look too difficult, but pretty interesting. That was third
most difficult in twenty nineteen, so it can play hard.
There's there could be some drama if we got a
lot of guys up by the lead on this one,
so pretty good finishing hole at six point two. Let's
go to our chart, Nick, Let's take a look at
total strokes gain. Let's see what we can take away
from this. We look at the three months, twelve months,
and six months. Here. Of course it's littered with all
of the big names. What's our takeaway from the chart
this week?
Speaker 2: Yeah, of course all the big names you'd expect here.
Speaker 3: I always start off to say how important this is
as far as signatures and majors and playoffs go. These
big events sixty seven percent of the time since the
start of twenty twenty three, so almost three full seasons now,
the winner has been in this top ten over the
last twelve months.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 3: I will add, and I've said this the last few weeks,
that you know, on other type of events, if it's
not the top ten, it's you guys aren't far behind.
You know, they might be in the top twenty where
that winner actually comes. So even if it's not here,
it's not you're not going really deep down on the list.
Speaker 2: And I think.
Speaker 3: Before last week there was it was twenty four or
twenty seven events on tour this year, the winner had
ranked in the top twenty five either in the twelve,
six or three month window. Got her Up's a really
good example last week if you if you look at
his strokes game number heading into last week, he ranked
seventyeth seven zero in the field and strokes game over
the last twelve months, but in the last three months
he was nineteenth, and the book books had him as
the fourteenth or fifteenth depending on which book you were
looking at Odds Favorite.
Speaker 2: So they're not dumb. They know the form he was in,
they know how well he was playing. But that's just
proves the point.
Speaker 3: Maybe you're not there in the ten twelve months, but
you got to look in these other one those two
to six and three months. I just organized it by
the twelve months because it's been a long term proven winner,
but short term these ones are good too.
Speaker 2: Anyway, list this year is who you'd expect.
Speaker 3: Scotty of course, will always continually the way I would
say at this point, it's going to take like him
playing poorly for an entire year not to be him
for him to be on top of this list.
Speaker 2: John Rahm excellent Major season so far this year.
Speaker 3: While deserving that that spot there Rory flashes of is
a return to for him last week. I got to
give got her up all the props in the world
for dueling it out and being in the final drive.
Speaker 2: With them and winning that last week.
Speaker 3: But that should give Rory more confidence coming back here
of course, where he wanted to shoot a sixty one
two or something like that here, So he's got that,
and then you know, I don't know how I feel
about Deshambo at the Open Championship, and I'd like.
Speaker 2: To get your take on him.
Speaker 3: Obviously all the other majors he's right there, but I
don't know that he's had like a really good showing
on these link type of courses. It's never really been
somewhere you can overpower, even though you think at times
you should be able to, but as soon as you
miss it in this crap and you have taken penalties,
it's just not worth it. Henley, he's straight and narrow.
He should be a guy that should avoid the trouble
and that's usually the recipe at.
Speaker 2: The Open Championship.
Speaker 3: It's not the guy that's just making Bertie after Burry
is the guy that's just slowly avoiding the doubles over
seventy two holes.
Speaker 2: Fleetwood. Come on, If there's ever a week, could it
be this week for Tommy? And then Colin is I.
Speaker 3: Think a major avoid for a lot of people right
now with everything going on with him.
Speaker 2: The rest of the list here a couple of guys
on the Live.
Speaker 3: Tour hat and Nieman I put down there the notables
because he's been playing very very well. Strakap playing well well,
had a good bage class week, and of course Sane
Lowery I put on here because he's the six year
removed defending champion of Royalport Rush. But as you can see,
his form is declining. You can see the numbers dropping
here in the three month window compared to the twelve
so not in grade four right now. Probably not worth
a thirty five to one bet on a guy that's
trending the wrong way. We even get a guy's like
Straka at fifty to one, even neither in the fifty
five to one as comparable. So that's my take on
the top ten this week.
Speaker 1: Leave this chart up for just a second, real quick dan,
So there's one guy on this list who finished top
five at the last year's Open, Championship and has finished
top ten in his last three tournaments. Do you know
it is? So who finished top five at the Open
Championship last year and who finished top ten in the
last three tournaments this year? So play great at this
event last year in great form? Do you know? Do
you know who it is? It's it's just always the
most underrated guy on this list.
Speaker 3: I'm trying to look at the lists of going top ten.
It wasn't Fleetwood Shopping's probably pretty close. I don't know
if he's been top ten ing every week there, but
he obviously won last here. Not Lowry Strack was top
five last year.
Speaker 1: Is it's Rakka, It's Russell Henley just always is just
always there. He's just always finishing. It's just always playing great.
He's yeah, he's sixty, he's sixty six to one. He's
behind Jakie Neeman. Uh, it's behind Patrick can't Ley. I mean,
it's just the guys just always criminally, criminally undervalued and
uh yeah, we should be making a lot more money
off of Russell Henley. So yeah, Russell Henley. It's just
it's always Russell Henley. It's always Russe. So thought that
was interesting all right, let's go to players that can
trip you up. If you're watching this on Tuesday, it
is five dollars Tuesday. Over at wager talk, all handicappers
can put up a play for five dollars. I have
an open Championship best bet that is up, so take
advantage of that. If you're watching this on Tuesday. If
you're watching this on Wednesday, the open Championship packs are up.
Nick will have something. I will have something as well.
You get all plays for that over at wager talk
dot com, So take advantage of that, especially if you're
watching this on Tuesday. Take manage of that five dollars
Tuesday play. You can try open championship plays, you can
try other sports from other handicappers. Really really good tool
to use, especially when there's not a lot of sports
going on this week. Busy week for Nick and I,
but for the baseball fans, not a lot going on
this week. All right, let's go to players that can
trip you up. I'm gonna stun people with the with
these first two here, Nick, I'm going right to the
top here. I'm going Scotti Scheffler as a player that
can trip you up. He's the betting favorite he's the
betting favorite, which means.
Speaker 2: Top two, what's tripped up? Top top five, top what
is it? Where are we going?
Speaker 1: Well, he's a favorite's he's he's a deep, he's a
big favorite. And all of his head to head matchups,
so he has to beat everybody. You know, he's gotta
beat Rory, he's gotta beat Zander, he gotta beat Rom
And the fact is he's just not that great at
the Open Championship. He's never finished better than seventh at
an Open Championship. I need him to be top three
to return to return value at this if you're gonna
bet on him to.
Speaker 2: Hit on that real quick.
Speaker 3: Last week he led the field to the green at
the Scotch So to prove your point about links, he
just couldn't get the ball in the hole. Maybe that
or something to say for what Rory was complaining about.
You know that bestI drass let it out. Maybe the
week will help him. But he's minus two hundred for
a top ten, So I understand your value hard.
Speaker 1: I can't roll my eyes enough at Rory getting mad
at the greens. Maybe I don't know, maybe maybe maybe
it was me, but maybe it's how you Yeah, so
you know, he's third in total strokes gained over the
last thirty days. That's not number one. His putting is
a concern. He's outside the top what's that?
Speaker 2: Who's number won in that thirty day went down?
Speaker 1: Probably Henley, It might be it might be Harry Hall.
Speaker 2: You keep going, I'll tell you, okay.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So he's outside the top thirty in terms of
putting in the last thirty days, and I need a
perfect performance from him, and Leak's golf just hasn't brought
out the best in him. You know, here is here
is last four finishes seventh, twenty third, twenty first and eighth.
So Scottie Shuffler is just not a guy I can
bet on. I can't lay him as heavy chalk again
in some of these matchups. In fact, I would look
at going in the opposite direction. So, yes, who's number one?
Speaker 2: Russell Henley?
Speaker 1: Of course it's Russell Henley.
Speaker 3: It's always he only played two events, but it's Russell Henley,
Rory Scott.
Speaker 1: Uh Russell Henley my guy. All right, I'm gonna be
villified for this one. But Shane Lowry is a guy
that I think can trip people up because everybody's gonna
be playing Shane Lowry. Everybody and listen is too. Twenty
nineteen performance was an all timer, but this feels like
a trap. Missed the cut in both Majors and Ice Cold.
Statistically outside the top fifty and total strokes gained over
the last three months, he's behind Matteya Schmid and Max Graserman.
I know people are gonna point to his course history.
I get it, but he's only recorded one top five
in Open Championships in the last eight and he has
five missed cuts to his name in Open Championships, so statistically,
he's not that good at Open Championships. But everybody's gonna
focus on an event that was six years ago. So
I'm not gonna be betting on Shane Lowry. I think
he's overpriced, and if I'm wrong, fine, but I will
be laying off Shane Lowry and everyone's gonna be on him,
and that's what the books want. The books want everybody
to be on one side, and I think everyone's gonna
be on Lowry, and I'm here to tell you I
think he's gonna disappoint and I'm gonna go with Bryson
Dashianbeau you missed him, you said you'd love to get
my take on it. This is just a really really
bad fit. He loves to overpower courses. He cannot bulldoze
his way around here. And his history at Open Championships
are terrible. Miscut sixtieth a, thirty third, miscut, fifty first, miscut.
He's just never been good, whether he's on the PGA Tour,
whether he's on live, this is just not a good style.
Like it's like you said, the runoff areas, it just
it funnels it into bunkers, it funnels it into the
fescue or the rough. And this is just not his
type of course. It never has been minis. Yeah, like
I said, miss the cut, finished sixtieth last two Open championships.
So and he also missed the cut here in twenty nineteen,
for what that's worth. So local knowledge finesse matters most.
Bryson easy fade. For me this week, I will not
be betting on Bryson day Schambeau. Now, if you want
to do a like a like a complete like opposite,
like you want to like go contrarian, put Bryson in
your lineups, But for me, I will not be doing that.
I will be doing that, so Nick, tell her what
we have up. But Wade, you're talking, and then let's
get your favorite favorite for this week?
Speaker 3: Sure it is Tuesday's Andy mentioned, I too have a
five dollars play up and available for the MLS. There's
a full Wednesday Night MLS card this week, so I
have the fin out of playoff, plus it's a couple
other additional plays for the Wednesday Night card. And of
course the Open Championship pack is up and ready now.
It will include all four days plus any ads throughout
the week. Already have a couple of plays loaded. We'll
be adding more as the week goes on. But MLS
and Open Championship is all that's going on for me
right now. And then we have the League's Cup, which
is a tournament MLS and Lega MX starting in a
two weeks time, so I'll have a pack up for
that probably by next week.
Speaker 2: Week air next week's show, whatever that tournament is.
Speaker 1: After the last the year, All right, favorite favorite, I
don't even know who your favorite favorite is this week.
I wanted to wanted to keep it a surprise. Who
you got for us?
Speaker 3: It's your one and done, It's it's Rob Scottie. I mean,
let's I gotta be honest. At twelve to one, I
think he's a little overvalue here based on his results
this year, but I do think he's playing very well.
Speaker 2: He's like the only guy on Live.
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm sorry, Bryson's obviously performed very well in
the majors, but he's the only guy on Live that's
performing well week to week on Live. It's ridiculous how
and remarkable how consistent he's been since joining in the
two years. You know the data, Andy, but twenty three
career Live starts one withdraw, eleventh place finish a couple
of tournaments ago, and twenty one top tens. He almost
won again this past week, so twenty one of twenty
three top tens. But he plays, he finishes top ten.
Nobody else is doing that because he cares and he's
trying to actually win these events. And then it's I
think it's helped its his major record. He's actually putting
in the effort, you know, obviously behind the scenes, but
each week, as he's playing well, how has that transition
into his major results? Tie for fourteenth Masters, tie for eighth, PGA,
tie for seventh at the US Open.
Speaker 2: I mean, you got to have It's like he can't just.
Speaker 3: Go through the motions and be doing scrimmages all the time,
and all of a sudden he expected to play game speed, right,
So I kind of think that is helping n He's
just grinding it out every single week, and he's playing
very well on lift.
Speaker 2: He finished tie for seventh at the Open last year.
Speaker 3: He's been he's been in the top eleven and four
out of the last five Opens.
Speaker 2: Like he clearly knows links golf and could play around here.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 2: He he's.
Speaker 3: He's just got He's just there. He's just got that
four right now that I really really love. I mentioned
he nearly won again last week, so he has a
runner up twenty twenty three, and he finished tie for
third in twenty twenty one at the Open. He obviously
hasn't won yet, but he's right right there. So there's
too many things pointing in John Robb's direction. Again, I
don't love his price, but I like his price better
than Rory and Scotti.
Speaker 2: At twelve to one.
Speaker 3: Top tens plus one thirty five, it would be an
interesting matchup guy to look at this week, especially if
he is paired with a Scotty Scheffler, Who would you
take making that scenario. In fact, I'm gonna pull up
see who Rob is with right now while we're talking.
Speaker 1: All right, Yeah, I would. I would take Rom. I
know he's gonna be plus money because they're not putting
Scottie Scheffler as a dog against Danny Boy. Would I
would ever so slightly lean to John Rahman that one.
So yeah, we'll do, uh, We'll do Draft Kings Darlings.
We'll do a long shot and then we'll do kind
of a rapid fire with some of the head to
head matchups and some of the other bets that they
have postable recording this Tuesday morning. So let's take a
look at Draft Kings Darlings. Great week for DFS. There
are a ton I had. Most of the time, I'm
really searching for these darlings.
Speaker 2: Oh I loved I.
Speaker 1: Love some of these lower priced guys. So finished eighty
ninth out of one hundred and fifty last week. I
had two players missed the cut. So still having one
of the best years ever, not not one of the best.
It's been my best year in DFS. It would take
a colossal collapse for this not to be my best
year ever. So yeah, let's take a look at some
of these guys who are really lower pro I'm gonna
start with Jordan Smith at fifty nine hundred steel rock
solid track record in big events. He's missed just two
cuts all year the DP World Tour. He made the
cut at the US Open, followed that up with a
twenty second place finish at the Scottish Open last week,
so he can handle links golf. Also made the cut
in two of his last three Open championships. At fifty
nine hundred, if Jordan Smith can get US weekend points,
absolute steal, so I'll start my lineup with Jordan Smith.
Harry Hall at sixty four hundred blows my mind, Nick.
I mean, this guy is one of the most consistent
guys on tour right now. Twelve straight made cuts, finished
inside the top forty in eight consecutive starts. Betting markets
have been underpriced. DFS has been underpriced over the last
three months. He ranks twenty first in this field in
total strokes gain. His entire game is on point, putting
us through the roof at this price, incredible upside. That's
what I love about Harry Hall, is he gives you
upside like Jordan Smith that we're hoping he makes the cut.
All right, get us a few points on the weekend.
Harry Hall can give you a top twenty upside. And
then we got to go with Matthew Fitzpatrick at seventy
eight hundred. We talked about him, perfect blend of form, pedigree.
You know he's had success at Major's, back to back
top ten finishes, fourth place last week at the Scottish Open,
peaking at the right time, tenth in the field and
total strokes gained last thirty days. So seventy eight hundred
one of the best all around plays on the board
here Matthew Fitzpatrick. So Jordan Smith, Harry Hall and Matthew Fitzpatrick,
those are my DraftKings, darlings. This is the first event
of the year that Scotti Scheffler has played, and he's
not in my DFS lineup. Nick I could not make
the case for him. So my full lineup is on
the digital download on my page wt dot buzz slash
al so we can get the five dollars plays. We
can get all plays for the Open Championship free article.
It gives you a course overview gives you all the
write up some players that can trip you up in
DraftKings Darlings, and the full lineup age of that's free download.
It'll be up by the time that you're watching that.
But yeah, first of it that Scottie Shuffler has played,
and then he is not in my lineup. Too expensive.
I don't like his history here at link style, and
I think there's much much better value on the board.
So all right, let's take a look at a long
shot and then we'll take a look at some bets.
Who's your favorite long shot this week?
Speaker 2: You mentioned him Harry Hall one hundred, twenty one, one
hundred and twenty to one, and let's go top.
Speaker 3: Ten, plus eight hundred, top twenty. I really love plus
three to thirty.
Speaker 1: Don't you threaten me with a good time? Top twenty
a plus three thirty on this guy?
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, exactly. I mean we just gotta ride, you
gotta ride the train. Another top twenty last week in
the Scottish seven now in a row.
Speaker 2: It included one of the majors.
Speaker 3: He had PGA. He didn't play in the US Open,
but his drivers like it's whatever, it's either good nor bad.
But driver is not a huge factor here at the
Links courses, so irons better than average, but his short
game very good and you know it as much as
I do. His putting is absolutely lights out. He's gain
strokes in eight straight starts on the green. He ranks
second in this field in that category during the same
time frame, only behind Sam Burns, and over the last
twelve months he ranks fourth, also behind Sam Burns and
then a DP World Tour guy and a live guy
that is just hard to compare the actual data points.
So he is one of the best plotters in the field.
His short game is phenomenal. You're gonna have to be
very creative obviously around there, around this course and around
any lands type of course. He's gained strokes putting Andy
in thirty one of his last thirty three starts dating
back over the last thirteen months. So you imagine putting
this guy's skill set on the greens with Scotty's skill
set on the t de Green. I mean, this guy
would win by seventeen every time he teamed up. Unfortunately,
this is his first Open Championships. You got no history
in this event, so expecting him to win does seem
a little far fetched, but top ten or top twenty
certainly worth the luck. And I do love that he
played last week. He played well. His form was just
too good at this price to pass up one.
Speaker 2: Hundred and twenty to one. Kid me gotta throw some
money on this s guy. Let's go Harry.
Speaker 1: Bringing home Harry best hat game right now in all
of Also, if you guys could please do his favorite
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Speaker 2: We're covering like a Bulgarian soccer league or something like that.
Speaker 1: Remember, yes, absolutely absolutely, I remember those days. Well. Yeah,
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It's a fantastic tournament. Love to see who you guys
are on and yeah, yeah, give me, give me the
comments about Shane Lowry, Andy, you're crazy. I get it,
all right, Nick, Let's go through some bets here. I'm
gonna go to our good friends at bet online. They've
got matchups up. Go through a couple that kind of
jumped off the page here for me, John, Rob, you
can get plus one thirty five against Shuffler, Yeah, minus
one sixty five against Scheffler.
Speaker 2: You no, no, not against Rob. Again.
Speaker 3: You've made a lot of good points as to why
maybe Scheffler's not the best guy winn this week, and
Rob has shown it.
Speaker 2: So I do like that. But I think that's better
than what is plus one thirty five chance to win.
I think it's better than that.
Speaker 1: So I like there's another one that jumps off the page.
I know he hasn't been back to his elite form,
but Xander Schoffle is only minus one fifteen against bryceon
I get to fade Bryce. Oh okay, yeah, that course
I like that one. Guys worried about.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would over your boy Lowry plus or minus
minus one fifty. So clearly you know books are on that.
Speaker 1: But I don't trust Tommy Fleetwood. Come on, we love
watching him, we love him, I just don't love betting
on him. I was worried about Hovelind last week with
the injury. Came out finished eleventh, so I think we
can put that to bed. Minus won fifteen against Colin Morrikawa,
who's downright awful last week plus four and missed the cut.
Colin Morikawa is a complete disaster right now, like so
I would. I would happily take him. They have Russell
Henley matched up against Sepstrak and Matthew Fitzpatrick. I'm sadly
I'm gonna have to pass. I love to bet on
Russell Henley in head to heads, but I can't take
him over either of those guys. Uh here Jordan Speith
minus won fifty against Koepka.
Speaker 3: Ah interesting fifty Now Speeth is loves livs golf right
so and kept Us has no form. So you want
to This is a big price to land speak is
kind of a radical obviously, but I will go speak them.
Speaker 1: Brian Harmon and Cameron Smith basically a Pickham the Live
guy versus Brian Harmon. Who you got?
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm always gonna be jaded to Harmon because
I won one hundred and twenty five to one bet
on him two years ago.
Speaker 1: I remember you did.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I love Harmon. I think I will do well.
I don't I don't know what to expect. K Smith.
I don't hear his name ever on live right now?
Is he contending at all? Is he like? So? I
just I can't imagine it on right, So I like it?
Speaker 3: All?
Speaker 1: Right? Let's move to some top twenties here. I'm looking
at the DraftKings lines. What's kind of amazing is there's
only five guys that are minus money. You got Scheffler
minus four fifty, Roy minus two seventy five, Row minus
one ninety, Fleetwood and Bryce and minus one oh five,
and then everyone's plus money for top twenty. Listen, you
could talk me into Shawfley at plus money. You might
be able to talk me into Hovelin at plus money,
but that Matthew Fitzpatrick at plus one sixty is the
one that really jumps off the page for me on
Top twenties. Any others that you might be interested in.
Speaker 3: Yeah, One thing I wanted to share is I've been
kind of tracking andy the results this season of the
top finishers, Like what is the odd range one should
target if you're looking to bet top ten, top five,
top twenty. So in a full field event, right, there's
an average of twenty three and a half players that
finish top twenty. Okay, that's obviously accounting for Tis fifteen
of those Andy fifteen of the twenty three, sixty four
percent are at odds at plus three hundred or longer. So, wow,
as much as you look and you see these events,
and you're going, yeah, Scotty probably finished out twenty, but
look at all these other guys, You're gonna have a
lot of this list of guys that are let's say
even at two hundred or less plus two hundred or
less not either missed the cut.
Speaker 2: Not be anywhere near in the top twenty.
Speaker 3: It's a lot harder than you think, or a lot
less likely than you think that these top guys, even
though they're playing well, all just all of a sudden
going to finish top twenty. Every time they tee it up,
it doesn't happen. So sixty four percent of the time
you're getting guys that are at three hundred to one
for longer. So in that pool. This week we mentioned
Harry Hall I like Nikolai Hoyguard very well. You got
the guy Marco Pench who just had a crazy week
last week. These guys are all over three hundred to one.
Brian Harmon you just mentioned. You got other players like
Zudenheit plus three sixty, Andrew Novak who had a good
run earlier, plus three sixty, Jordan Smith you mentioned plus
three sixty. I mean there's a lot of decent value
in names down this list. And what I like about
the Open Championship. Remember Thornton, how do we say it?
He's plus four hundred for a top twenty. When are
we just talking about him and high on him a
couple of weeks ago? These Open Championships tend to bring
out these players that are you know, your European based.
Maybe you don't hear about him ever seeing the league
and you're like, wait, who's that guy?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 3: They know how to play league's golf. So there's a
lot of me, let's just say, down in this range.
So I would not stick to the top of the
list if you're looking at these top twenties. I think
there's a lot of decent guys getting down there. Even
Jordan Sweets plus two ten, not terrible Ben Griffin plus
two twenty five been playing great.
Speaker 2: I don't really know what his Open pedigree is.
Speaker 3: The captain Keegan plus two forty. He's playing as good
as anyone. So there's a lot of value on these
guys down the list. So I would recommend going further
down the list this week then just sticking to the top.
Speaker 1: I'm going to go to miss the cuts. Yeah, I'm
gonna go pick on the LIV guys. Brooks kept because
plus one ten to miss the cut he's been awful
this year at the Majors, and minus one twenty on
Mark Leishman. Here are Mark lee Schman's last three finishes
at the Open Championships. Miscut, miscut, miscut. Yeah, you got
my attention.
Speaker 3: What's his finishes on LIB? I have again another name
I've not heard of at all.
Speaker 1: Fiftieth last week. Guys in the field, like, how bad
do you have to beat? A finish fiftieth? So you've
got a couple of spring Wolls where he's close, but
no Leishman have missed the cut at minus won twenty. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
you definitely have my attention, Absolutely have my attention. So
all right, that's going to do it for us for
tea time at the Open Championship. Again, if you're watching
this on Tuesday, take advantage of five dollars Tuesday play.
Nick's got an MLS play up, I've got an Open
Championship best bet that's up, and then Wednesday will have
our full packs out where you get all plays for
the rest of the week, including individual round plays and
he had to head matchups outright, so those will be
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So good luck, onto your plays, Let's have a great
Open Championship. Well, see you next week. Take care