Speaker 1: Hey, it's Alex July thirtieth, twenty twenty six. By the
Speaker 1: end of this episode, you'll see why an off chain
Speaker 1: hack just shifted the risk conversation and what those thin
Speaker 1: etf flows mean for your bitcoin in this bear market.
Speaker 1: Grab your coffee, let's make sense of the day together.
Speaker 1: But first, a quick word from our sponsor. Okay, so
Speaker 1: here's what's happening. Ostium just lost twenty four million dollars
Speaker 1: to an off chain breach, not a smart contract flaw.
Speaker 1: Off Chain risk is the top threat right now. Watch
Speaker 1: if perpetual desks show similar gaps. Markets were pretty quiet today.
Speaker 1: Bitcoin held near sixty five thousand, and the total market
Speaker 1: cap sits around two point three trillion. Nothing moved more
Speaker 1: than a percent, so the price action itself isn't the
Speaker 1: main story. Privacy coins is the strongest narrative today, up
Speaker 1: only a little over seven days. Monaro is the top
Speaker 1: coin in that sector, up only a little over seven days.
Speaker 1: Money is rotating, not lifting everything. Oil, tracked by the
Speaker 1: FUNDUSO dropped about ten percent this week. That matters because
Speaker 1: oil acts as a macro inflation signal and interest rates,
Speaker 1: Dollar strength and liquidity still drive crypto moves. The drop
Speaker 1: likely points to tighter growth expectations or supply shifts, but
Speaker 1: we'd want to see weaker demand data or a clear
Speaker 1: supply announcement to be sure. The full macro regime walkthrough
Speaker 1: and what it means for your crypto allocation is in
Speaker 1: the monthly playbook Alpha trial at tokenmetrics dot Com. Suppliers
Speaker 1: are looking at withdraw risk if the AVE vote passes.
Speaker 1: The protocol just proposed retiring some reserves that hold about
Speaker 1: one hundred million dollars in supplied assets. Think of it
Speaker 1: like a landlord evicting tenants from a wing because the
Speaker 1: plumbing is old. The money isn't leaving yet, but it's cleanup,
Speaker 1: not crisis. DeFi users should to check their exposure. If
Speaker 1: the proposal hits quorum by Friday with a yes vote, leading,
Speaker 1: suppliers should move funds to avoid forced migration. If it stalls,
Speaker 1: it's just governance. Theater next prediction market revenue topped both
Speaker 1: crypto and equities. A retail broker that wants banned crypto
Speaker 1: Bison twenty twenty one just had its strongest quarter. Robin
Speaker 1: Hood's on Ramp is now a full stack crypto venue,
Speaker 1: not a side bet. If Ethereum or Solana ETF inflows
Speaker 1: exceed fifty million dollars in week one, institutional demand is real.
Speaker 1: If volume fades, it was just a rates driven spike.
Speaker 1: July flows are set to be the weakest ever, and
Speaker 1: that removes a key bid under Bitcoin. In this bear market,
Speaker 1: the institutional drip that propped up prices has slowed to
Speaker 1: a leak. Bitcoin ETFs are on track for their smallest
Speaker 1: monthly inflows since launch. If August opens with net outflows,
Speaker 1: expect Bitcoin to test lower support. If inflows rebound above
Speaker 1: June's pace, the bear thesis weakens. ACFTC contract market license
Speaker 1: would let Binance US offer regulated prediction markets, challenging Robinhood
Speaker 1: and others. The largest US crypto name is going legit
Speaker 1: on derivatives. If the filing lands before August fifteenth, expect
Speaker 1: copycat filings. If delayed, the prediction market race stays fragmented.
Speaker 1: If they build, it's a parallel rail for Asian payments
Speaker 1: that skips banks. Samsung SDS is exploring stable coin infrastructure
Speaker 1: with Dunamu, the operator of Korean exchange Upbit, a tech
Speaker 1: giant and Korea's top exchange circling stable coins signals corporate
Speaker 1: treasury interest beyond tether. If a pilot goes live in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, watch Korean one peg stable coin volume.
Speaker 1: If it stays a memo, it's another giant flirting with crypto.
Speaker 1: All right, Before we get into the risks, quick word
Speaker 1: from our sponsor back, let's talk about what to watch for. First,
Speaker 1: fear and greed sits at twenty eight, down from twenty
Speaker 1: nine yesterday. Retail is hesitant, not capitulated. Second, stable coin
Speaker 1: supplies slip less than one percent and seven days trimming
Speaker 1: cash reserves for cryptobits. Third, an off chain breach at
Speaker 1: Ostium shows non smart contract gaps can drain millions, widening
Speaker 1: the attack surface beyond code. Finally, the synthesis buyers are
Speaker 1: cautious because ETF flows are weak and sentiment stays fearful
Speaker 1: that flips. If Bitcoin ETF inflows rebound for three straight
Speaker 1: days and fear and greed climbs above thirty five. First,
Speaker 1: FED rate signals are ongoing, the FED suggests rates could
Speaker 1: still rise, keeping risk assets under pressure. Second, fanatic spies
Speaker 1: a CFTC exchange this week. A traditional sportsbook enters prediction markets.
Speaker 1: Intensifying competition with crypto platforms. Third polymarkets. Bitcoin July price
Speaker 1: market resolves July thirty first. The closing price signals retail
Speaker 1: positioning into month end. The key watch is whether bitcoin
Speaker 1: ETF inflows turn positive in August while fear and greed
Speaker 1: climbs above thirty five, which would signal the bear trend
Speaker 1: is loosening. If you're not subscribed to the podcast yet,
Speaker 1: hit that subscribe button. It takes two seconds. This is
Speaker 1: educational content, not investment advice. Always do your own research.
Speaker 1: I'm Alex. See you next time.