Speaker 1: One you are that happy Saturday. Welcome to Las Call.
I'm the prep Queen Ariel Epstein. As you guys may know,
I've been filling in for Kelly in Vegas all summer.
The days are getting there will dwindle in only a
few more last calls left before Kelly gets to take
back over. But today we've got some great guests coming on.
Of course, Yanni the Greek gonna tell you where all
the sharp action is today on the board. Got a
lot of Major League Baseball to talk through. Uh, And
then we've got Tokyo Brandon, who's gonna go deeper into
the Major League Baseball world answering all of your questions
so that you guys could find out where the edge
is today, whether it's prop sides totals. We got you covered.
Then Jesse Schule also gonna come on. We're gonna talk
a little college football, So get ready because one fourth
of July is over. Like it is, We're going college football,
and thank you Sean Michael. I had a coffe attack
yesterday on air, which was really embarrassing. But I'm not
feeling hot, so that's what's great, because we're gonna bring
on some great guests, so that I don't need to
talk so much, starting with our very own from here
at wait talk you know me, you love and he
is the sharpest guy you may know. They call him
Vegas Runner v R. Yannied the Greek live from Las Vegas.
Let's bring on Yanni. Happy Saturday, Yannie, Yanni? Is this
sound off?
Speaker 2: Can he not hear us?
Speaker 3: Mister, mister Greek gambler?
Speaker 1: Hello, Yani, Yanni over here.
Speaker 2: Here's the problem with when here's the problemari all with
When VR has technical difficulties, there's gonna be no way
to reach. So I'll do my best here. But but
we can talk to TV in the meanwhile while I
while I troubleshoot our man.
Speaker 1: We need areas, Yanny.
Speaker 4: I had the volume down, Yanni over here. But there's
a CFL going on. There's PFL going on. I just
placed two p another PFL. Bet. You guys can have it.
You guys can have it. The pfos right now in.
Speaker 1: That's what you were in the zone with, was PFL.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I was firing and I gave out a
four percent right now on Corey Anderson Cory Anderson at
plus one ten. As long as you're getting plus money.
It's a queen flip fight. Anything plus one on one
or better. You're good. Corey Anderson and Justin Clark. Justin Clark,
I gave out at minus one thirty. I think he's
up about minus one forty right now. I think one
fifty or better. You're good still Justin Clark, Corey Anderson
in PFL. That's going on over the next like thirty
to sixty minutes. So sorry, had the fire, had the fire?
Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, that was so funny. I'm glad that
I got a good laugh to start my morning. Yannie,
how have you been. I feel like I haven't seen
you in a few weeks.
Speaker 4: Good. Good. I've been busy, Like I didn't take a vacation.
This is with the first All Star break. I haven't
taken vacation in like a long time, just because I'm
just so busy. Just got so much going on and
been real busy with accounts and moving and because of
the Summer League, the NBA Summer League. I was so
prepared for it, and I mean that the results have
been ridiculous. I'm glad I did take off for it.
So it's just been busy, just been firing away, waiting
for football, getting prepared for football, starting to study a
little more each and every day, and gave out like
four college football season win totals earlier this week. So
I'm just in the zone, really in the zone. As
far as the gambling, I'm locked in area. I'm pretty
much locked in. So things are good right now.
Speaker 1: You mentioned the NBA Summer League. I know that people
like you love betting the NBA Summer League the same
way you love betting spring training. How do you go
about handicapping the summer league? And have you been successful?
Speaker 4: Yeah, We've been really, really, really successful in the NBA.
I mean I think I went like four and oho
the other night. It's just like every night we've been
making money. I think that's number one prop for the
last seven days. Last three days, it's mostly NBA Summer
League and now baseball of course another good night. But
for me, I just pigged. I'll tell you the truth.
I moved the stuff for a group that does the
NBA Summer League, and from everything I see, the lines
move really quickly and really significantly, and most of it
is based on information of who's actually playing. Like that's
why you see a lot of these moves, and how
they're getting the information of who's playing or which team
really cares. I have no idea, but that's pretty much
has been the simple handicap. From what I'm seeing. They're
zoning in on a couple teams that they obviously have
good information on because it seems to be the same
teams we're betting sides and totals on. And like I said,
these groups are just getting that information in Summer League,
and I'm just betting it for them. I'm not handicapping
the stuff because to be honest with you, I wouldn't
even know how to handicap the Summer League.
Speaker 1: Is there anything today in the NBA Summer League.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm sure there is. Yeah, I haven't gotten anything yet.
We haven't bet anything, but yeah, there's like six seven games.
I haven't gotten anything yet in the accounts. That's why
I just kept for refreshing. Nothing in Summer League yet.
But yeah, that's where it's at. And the thing is
they don't fire like too early. A lot of that
Summer League stuff comes like before the game starts, like
they'll get a nugget of information like maybe this these
this player is not going to play or isn't one
hundred percent. And I think they're betting that kind of
information because a lot of it does come late. It's
not like the lines are that far off like where
they're just blasting the openers. It seems more like it's
information based and that tends to come in throughout the day.
But so far, nothing in uh NBA Summer League. The
only thing we bet so far PFL, UFC soccer all
over the world, and some Major League baseball sides. But
again it's eight am here in Vegas, and the baseball
starts to come in over the next like two hours.
We got a little more.
Speaker 1: So do you want to get to UFC first?
Speaker 4: Yeah, wherever you want to go.
Speaker 1: I'm good, okay, because you know I got a questions
about baseball, but UFC, I just blindly trust you.
Speaker 4: Here's where I could go. Here's where we'll go. We'll
go to the main event because I'll give you two
bets here real quickly, listen, it's Holloway's retirement fight. The
stages set for him to go off in the blaze
of glory win the BNF title in his hometown of
New Orleans. Final fight against an opponent he's already beaten twice.
But I think this is a very different fight, and
I think the betting line offers a lot of value
fading Dustin Pourrier for this perfect story to not end
so perfectly. And the bottom line is this, Forget the
first fight because it was Max's debut in the UFC.
Let's throw it that out. It was a long time ago,
but it was the second fight that I'm looking at mostly,
And here's what sticks out to me. Max closed it
about a minus two twenty favorite. So even though Dustin
was coming in on a hot streak and Max was
coming in on a hot streak, they still fault. Max
would win this fight close to seventy percent of the time.
And it was Max's first time moving up to lightweight,
so he was a featherweight fighting one hundred and forty
five pounds now moving up to one fifty five, and
he's the favorite over a guy who's been established at
that weight class and kicking ass. So it tells me
how how strongly the market valued Max Holloway. But here's
the problem. Even though he out outlanded Poorier, he outstruck Poorier,
the difference was the damage that Pourier inflicted on Holloway
because he was the smaller guy that night. Holloway was
a true one to fifty five that night, he was
probably like one seventy. Max was a one forty five.
The most he was that night was one fifty five,
not even one sixty. So Poorier was a lot bigger,
a lot stronger. That's no longer the case. Max is
now a legit lightweight and I think that's going to
make all the difference, coupled with the motivation. We can't
quantify prisal motivation. But the last thing Holloway wants to
be is the high light reel for Pourier's career where
Max losses UFC debut to him, lost the chance at
the lightweight title, and his lightweight debut to him, And
now is going to be his highlight reel in his
retirement fight. No, no, no, I think you're gonna get
a very motivated Max Holloway and just watching that second fight,
and you can't throw too many conclusions off one single fight.
But he didn't get beat in that fight. He didn't
win that fight, but he didn't lose that fight. And
I think a one to fifty five Max Holloway that
night would have won that fight. Give me Max Holloway,
and more importantly, inside the distance. That's correct. We're gonna
go under four and a half and we're gonna take
plus money to do that. Rarely do I go under
four and a half. I've said it before. If you
did nothing but go over three and a half over
four and a halfs you've made double digit return on
investment over the last decade. Because the MMA lions are
shaded towards finishes, shaded towards the bias of the unders.
But that doesn't mean we blindly bet overs. It means
we're very selective when we do bet the unders. And
this is one of those spots where I really do
think these guys are going to leave it out there.
It's for the BMF, it's not for like it's a
lightweight title or anything like that. It's a retirement fight.
Max is coming off a loss, but prior to that
he had that Gaugey knockout in the BMF fight. Like,
I don't think these guys are going to be out
there for like a technically sound point fighting. I think
they're going for finishes. So let's go Max Holloway. Let's
go under and see if we could sweep the main event.
Max Holloway and Under in the main event. And don't forget,
I have my package up already, two premiums in there.
Two more premiums will be in there in the next
thirty minutes. And there's the five percent as well, number
one five percent last three sixty five, number one in
five percent this year. And didn't have one last UFC card,
but we have one today. It's a dog still available,
so hopefully we have a good night in UFC, good
fights tonight.
Speaker 1: Janni. I'm looking right now as the bet splits, and
I'm seeing that some of the most bet on props
for tonight is Poier by submission, Poier by decision or
technical decision, halloway uh, knockout TKO or Dqoyer by ko
z ko or DQ and Kevin Holland k O t
k O dq or submission. Those are some of the
most bet on props that I'm seeing tonight. Did any
of those stand out as a fade the public?
Speaker 4: Because I think it's going to be a finish. I
like Max Max inside the distance. I like a lot
of times with those props when you're betting the narrative.
You're usually not getting the best of it, and you're
better all fading the narrative. That's usually I love it.
Speaker 1: I call it fade the public, and I love getting
these betsplits where I could fade the public. And I
love asking people like you if there is a public
side that you would be fading.
Speaker 4: Yeah, out the the pooriate by submission, Like in the
perfect world, that's how he would win this fight. But
it's not going to happen. He's not going to submit
Max Holloway. He's not getting them out of there. I
know that's what everyone wants to see. That's an auto fad,
that's not happening. That's not I think if you're gonna
bet any kind of prop in that main event, you
want to look to the Holloway side, and you want
to look to inside the distance. I think you're gonna
get some good value there because of just how tough
Pooria is, like just how durable he is. And I
think that's even going a little bit against the narrative,
because again, this fight is favored to go over, it's
favored to go the distance for the judges to declare
the winner. I don't think that's gonna happen. That's why
we're getting plus money fading that narrative. So yeah, Max
inside the distance the prop I would go for and
fade those Holloway inside the distance props. He's not getting
Max at it or he's not finishing Max.
Speaker 1: Sean Michael wants to know if there's a sleeper in
the UFC today.
Speaker 4: Like a dog, a nice dog, I'll give you a sleep.
A dog that was sticking out to me is McVeigh.
Jackson mcvay's like a five to one dog plus five
hundred against Bruno Pahana. McVeigh hasn't hasn't been in the UFC,
hasn't even full contender series. But this kid didn't get
this shot by accident. He's as tough as they come.
It's just he hasn't had a level of competition yet
that warrants being able to be a UFC fighter. That's
why he's this big of a dog. But there's no
way Faeta should be this big of a dog over
Jackson McVay. Mcvay's gonna have, I think a nice reach advantage.
He's a lot younger than Faheta, and he's got the
confidence and swagger of a kid that just doesn't even
know better yet, Like he's just getting guys out of
there in the very first round. And when you have
that kind of confidence sometimes it's like you don't even
know you're in like a big Like the UFC is
such a big deal, But I don't think this kid's
gonna be overwhelmed by it. I just don't. At plus
five hundred, you got to take a stab. You gotta
sprinkle a little something something on Jackson McVeigh. I don't
think Bruno Fahetta should be a minus eight hundred or
greater against anybody. So yeah, give me McVay. That's a
little sprinkle anything.
Speaker 1: I know, this might be a little crazy w NBA
All Star anything there.
Speaker 4: The w n B A let me see, no, no,
no no. I was gonna say over. The only thing
I would look is go over over all star games.
Though that's a little square.
Speaker 1: People asking me about the w NBA All Star Game
yesterday on the prop Queen Pot and I'm like, guys, seriously,
like I understand that we could do some crazy crap,
but like the w NBA All Star Game, I think
is where I draw the line.
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's got to be a better there's got to
be a better bet on the board.
Speaker 1: Yeah, like Major where we've got a fully loaded card.
What's coming on MLB on.
Speaker 4: The first bet we placed was on the Yankees. You
did Yankees? Yeah, that was after faded him yesterday. Atlanta
was one of my I think a four percent played
for me Atlanta. I had Atlanta yesterday. We're coming with
the Yankees today minus one twenty Arizona Arizona nine to
fifty six, minus won ten and nine sixteen. Seattle minus
one twenty. So we got three small favorites Yankees, Arizona,
and Seattle. Again, it's early. The Canadian group does the
moves the market in Major League Baseball. Those guys tend
to bet like ten am Pacific time on weekdays at
about nine a ham Pacific time on weekend for whatever reason,
that'll probably be about forty five minutes, So subscribers, you
will be receiving baseball like you've had been the last
you know, this entire summer over the next hour. But
so far, that's that's what they hit early, the Yankees, Arizona,
and Seattle as they returned. But oh real quickly we
bet series bets yesterday, three series bets prior to first pitch,
and they were Pittsburgh, Dodgers and the Mets all chalky,
all chalky, especially the Dodgers and the Mets. Both of
them were chalky. And if if I'm not mistaken, I think,
uh two of them, all three of them lost yesterday.
I know Pittsburgh lost to the White Sox. I know
what's it called lost too? The Mets lost, right, and
and the Dodgers lost all three. Yeah, the Dodgers lost
in Milwaukee. If the Mets lost, then they're zero and
three right now on series bets. Yeah, I don't see
the Mets. Did the Mets get ringing down? Oh? The Mets.
The Mets lost to Sinci. So yeah, Pittsburgh, Dodgers and
the Mets. Those three we bet the series yesterday right
before first pitch, and those series bets have done real well.
So what does that tell you? That means over today
and tomorrow we need to go to and on in Pittsburgh.
We need to go two and O on the Dodgers.
We need to go too and O on the Mets
to win those series bets. So use that information as
you wish, but we need Pittsburgh Dodgers and the Mets today.
We need Pittsburgh Dodgers and the Mets tomorrow as well,
or those series bets go down the drain. And only
because I absolutely adore you and for your show only,
I'm gonna give you, guys real quickly. I got a
couple soccer bets that just came in. Don't know if
you guys want to use them, what you want to
do with them, but these have done so well, so
well for us, so real quickly. This is in Brazil,
Brazil Series A, Series A in Brazil, it's Corinthians in
South Polo, Corinthians in South Paulo. We're going over one
point seventy five over one point seventy five minus one two,
so that's San Paolo and Corinthians over one point seventy five.
That's Brazil Series A. Also in Argentina Super League Argentina
Super League, we're going with Sarmiento Saramiento and Goo DUIs
Cruz Good Duys Cruz under one point seventy five, so
that's Sarmiento, GOA Duys Cruz under one point seven five
also up to minus one ten. That's in Argentina and
I'm gonna give you a draw plus two thirty five.
The other day we hit a draw plus two fifty.
Here's a draw for you. Only because it's arial doing this,
and this one's in League one Romania, it's we're going
with uh Stoia Bucharest I'm even gonna stall that for you.
B U c u r e s t I b
U c u r e s t I verse Petrousal.
That's petro so probably some uh what's it called a
gas company or something. That's what it sounds like to me.
P e t r o U l u l fifty
two in a draw. So we're betting BUCHARESTI and Petrosol
fifty two draw plus two thirty five. Yeah, only only
here where you get Argentina, Brazil and even got some
Mexican League for you. But we don't want to go
to those levels. No one confused. The betters out there too.
Overwhelms the betters, It overwhelms them.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give people, well, I'll ask one more before
I let you go. People know about this one. They
don't need to go dig in for a series on
they like you did in COVID times with us, I
was like one of the first times I spoke to you,
and I was mind blowing the Open. Any live action
on the Open.
Speaker 4: No, And I thought we were gonna miss it. Yesterday
we were just waiting on a four percent under for
the cut to be one forty three and a half
and under, and it was like one forty four all day.
But I logged into the accounts this morning and it cashed,
so obviously we hit that one somehow. The only thing
I did see here, I'll tell you there was a
match a matchup in what's it called in in round three,
but I don't know if it started. Let me give
it to you real quick, just in case it has it.
It was Bryson d Chambeau d Chambeau over Corey Connors
up to minus one fifty. I think that's what they wanted,
Bryson d Chambeau. That's the only golf I have, but
I'm not sure if that's even still on the board.
That got fired. When I woke up that we had,
my cousin had already bet that for them, so you know,
he's on the East coast. He starts a little earlier
than I do, so yeah, that that's all I had
in the goth Nothing else came in and I just
refreshed for you guys. Nothing nothing, nothing. I was hoping
to send you off with some summer league or something,
but uh yeah, that's gonna have.
Speaker 1: To weigh Johnny, what are you promoting today?
Speaker 4: UFC, Baby, UFC and Major League Baseball? Right now, running hot,
running very hot. The baseball packet would be up with
in the next thirty minutes. Like I said, I got
three or four plays already in the chamber ready to go.
But the UFC the five percent play, which I absolutely love.
I even placed the cash bet. I swear to God
on my life, I did this in the last five
percent before leaving the Red Rock yesterday with my girl.
I emptied everything out on the on the table at
the at the sports book, even three hundred and twenty
dollars that was in chips. I bet on this five percent.
So I had ended up only having like less than
a little less than two dimes. I had like eighteen
hundred and something bucks on me. But I still I
pushed that because we just went for dinner. But talking
over dinner, I talked myself even more like in this
five percent that I said, you know what, let's do
it like we did last time and just put all
the money before we go home. So we go home
break put it all in that fighter, so hopefully we've
got to come back and cash it.
Speaker 1: Johnny the Greek, he's the best. Make sure to check
him out all over Wadge youer talk platforms. Have a
great weekend, Johnny. Good luck tonight.
Speaker 4: Love you guys, Thank you. That's the luck.
Speaker 1: We've got a dave deeper into Major League Baseball. I
haven't looked at the card yet. I'm going to do
that after the show, so to help us get started,
we've got a lot of action, big card. We're going
over to Tokyo, Tokyo, Brandon joining the show, staying up
late for us. Ask man behind him. We absolutely love it. Tokyo.
Happy MLB Saturday or is it Saturday or Sunday for you?
Speaker 3: It's uh, it's just past midnight here in Tokyo, so
technically Sunday morning. Nice to see you again, Ariel. Yes,
you need to stay home tonight and eat a steak.
Speaker 1: I think yeah, I think my body needs a steak
and like a lot of help. I just pushed myself
to the limit until I almost die but I'll watch
Major League Baseball too with my Steak and Tokyo Brandon.
I know the Chat was all excited that you were
coming on, So Chat, please get all your questions in
for TV so we could answer them in baseball. First,
I guess what stood out to you the most on
the card.
Speaker 3: Well, before I get to that, I want to let
everyone know I have a four percent play out today,
so go grab that, and after this show, I'm going
to be doing a live one hour open my spreadsheet
to everyone and cap some games, so be sure to
tune into that. Quite a few things pop out to
me when I looked over the card today. Fortunately, I'm
on Japan time obviously, so I get the benefit of
checking the numbers right when they come out while people
in the US are probably sleeping. So yeah, quite a
few things jump out at me. Let me tackle the
Angels Phillies game. First of all, we got Kikuchi going
against Taiwan Walker, and I've never really been a fan
of either one of these pitchers, but Kikuchi is kind
of starting to turn me around this season. He's pitching
really well, which is unusual for pitchers who go to
the Angels usually they're terrible there, but he went there
from the Astros and he's actually been doing quite well.
I have him ranked a little bit higher than Taiwan Walker.
Most people probably were surprised that the Angels came through yesterday.
I think they're going to come through again today. Is
big underdogs here because they got the better bullpen in
current form. They have the better lineup by far in
current form. I have him ranked five out of thirty teams,
where I got the Phillies ranked twenty two out of
thirty teams. Yes, Philadelphia's lineup is more talented on paper,
but they're not performing right now, going into the All
Star Break and coming out of it not performing well.
Bullpen Angels advantage. So I kind of like the Angels
in this one.
Speaker 1: Oh okay, so you like the Angels today, I'm looking
to see if the chat had anything for you too.
I know that Yannie gave us Yankees, d Backs, and Mariners.
Any of those stand out, So let's.
Speaker 3: Take a look at the Diamondbacks here. They got They're
going against the Cardinals, Sonny Gray and Ryan Nelson. Gray
is a guy who's really good, but the books tend
to give him a little bit too much credit. Not
to say that he's not a good picture, but they
do give him a little bit too much credit. Let
me see what my numbers pull up here. Diamondbacks underperforming
at the lineup, but they really have a talented lineup.
Their bullpen has been trash since the beginning of the season, though.
I've got the Saint Louis Cardinals ranked a little bit
higher than the Diamondbacks in almost every category. And Sunny
Gray is not walking anybody I do. Since I was
at MLB Scout, I have this formula that I is
probably no one else in the world uses it. I
don't know, I just made it up, but I do
a ratio for balls to balls, bases on balls to strikeouts,
and I calculate the percentage. Sonny Gray is in a
really top percentile. He only walks fourteen percent of the
guys he strikes out, which is a really good rate. Generally,
the pictures will be between thirty and forty percent. Ryan
Nelson is a little bit above at forty three, but
that's not too alarming. He's just not a really good picture.
I don't like Nelson. I do like the Cardinals today,
but given the fact that they couldn't hit yesterday. Kind
of worries me a little bit. Taking a look at
Ryan Nelson's splits. He performs really well at home in
forty five innings. He's got a two ERA. So if anything,
I'd probably go under here because both teams are underperforming,
and I like Ryan Nelson at home, and I like
Sunny Gray overall. So I would probably do an under
in the Diamondbacks Cardinal's game. I haven't pulled the trigger yet.
Speaker 1: Nate wants to know if you have any thoughts on
the Padres Padres.
Speaker 3: I certainly do. This is a this is a game
that I like to attack today. I'm attacking this in
several ways. But we got Darvish. We got Darvish going
against Mitchell Parker. Mitchell Parker is a pretty bad picture. Actually,
how bad is he? I'll tell you in just a moment.
Let's see what I got here. Yeah, I got both
of these pictures underperforming quite miserably. I take all the
two hundred some starting pictures and I curve them on
a curve of thirty, and I got Mitchell Parker ranked
twenty nine out of thirty. That's pretty bad. Looking at
his looking at his numbers, isolating his his one on
one numbers. I got him giving up more than six hits.
I've got him allowing more than two earned runs today,
and I've got him in his career against these batters
and ops of over eight sixty four. So I do
not like Mitchell Parker Garbish. I like, but he's just
getting a little bit old. I think the Washington lineup
is pretty good. They're generally undervalued by the book right now.
Not in great current form. Neither are the Padres, but
both bullpens below average. I would go either over or
I would take San Diego Padres over in this one
because I don't like either starting pitcher in current form,
and I don't really like either bullpen. I think the
bats will wake up here. Neither team has been cranking
it too well lately, but I think the bats will
wake up today, So I like the over in this one,
either team total or game total.
Speaker 1: Dale asked, are the Tigers an underdog today?
Speaker 3: Tigers, let's take a look. That's not one that I
was isolating, but let me see the matchups. Probably for
a good reason. Yeah, I don't really have see Montero's
going against Kumar Rocker and I don't really like either picture,
but I have almost zero data on head to head
matchups for these pictures. Montero is actually four and one,
where Kumar Rockers three and four Rangers.
Speaker 1: Deserves to be a favorite over the Tigers, to be honest,
but they're at home, so I get it. But Kumar
Rocker is very hit or.
Speaker 3: Miss well he is. He's a strikeout guy, and he
likes strike people out and he's pretty good at it.
But his record's three and four. The Rangers are a
really good home team though they're twenty seven and nineteen,
but the Tigers are a really good away team. I
think the Tigers are going to fade a little bit
in the second half. That doesn't mean they're going to
lose today, but I would have to say Montero is
a better pitcher than Rocker in my opinion. I'll probably
stay away from this game because you know, we're trying
to predict the future here, and the more X factors
you have means it's more difficult to predict the future.
So way too many X factors here, So I'm probably
gonna stay away from this game.
Speaker 1: Oh great show, Andrew says, thank you so much. Mets
team's total. I think today is the David Right Day
where they retire his number.
Speaker 3: Which team the Mets? Yeah, yeah, Hey, I just have
to say any show with Ariel Epstein is a hit
as far as I'm concerned.
Speaker 1: Oh, thank you. Even when I'm under the weather, I
appreciate it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, You're always great, under the weather or not. So
let's take a look at the Mets here. What do
we got?
Speaker 1: I think, do you follow narratives? Because I'm pretty sure
today is the David Wright retirement ceremony. So I'm curious if,
like I sometimes love to fade narratives, or I stay
away just because it's like an emotional day. The Mets
players will want to play for David Right and the fans,
and it's going to be a packed house because everyone's
honoring David Wright and it's his whole weekend. It's just
like too much sometimes, and I hate backing a narrative.
Speaker 3: Well, once the game starts, nobody's really thinking that it's
David Right Day, so I really don't buy into those narratives.
And some of these players probably haven't even played with him,
so they probably don't care. It's just kind of a
nuisance before the game that they can't just go out
there and get started, probably for most of them. So
I don't really buy into those narratives very much. I
approach this the game by game day, but there is
something to be said if there's some kind of trend
where there's a ceremony and the team loses, you know,
sixty percent or something. If there's a trend of sixty percent,
I might listen to it. But in general, many of
these players didn't play with him. Many of these players
don't care about him, and they're just kind of waiting
to get on the field, So I don't buy into
the narrative here. Interesting fact about this game though, I
really like the Mets. Don't I don't know why, but
Clay Holmes is walking way too many people, But I
still have him ranked better than Nick Martinez and the
Mets bullpen. I have them slightly better, and I have
see this is one of those games where I have
the Mets ranked higher than the Reds in every category,
but they're only ranked higher by like one or two points,
so it's it's like all Mets, but it's only all
Mets by like a small percent, So I'm not sure
if I'm going to go all in with the Mets
here because Clay Holmes walks way too many guys. The
Mets are thirty three and fifteen at home, so that
you can't ignore that, and the Reds have a losing
record on the road. If anything, I would go Mets here,
but I wouldn't go all in. And I haven't pulled
the trigger for an official play yet.
Speaker 1: Okay, it's a no official play there. I'm the mets.
Dale says he like reading. I'm reading with chat. I
want to make sure. Okay, here's Raymond Jones. Any thoughts
on the White Sox and Angels both winning today or
taking to win either the first three or first five.
Speaker 3: Oh my god. Wow, someone's really going into some serious
plus money props there, huh. Or a plus money parlays there, huh.
I would not do that because it's just kind of
like buying a lottery ticket. You're better off betting the
games separately. I do like the Angels today, but if
you can get like plus one and a half or something,
or even a plus two and a half and throw
them in a parlay like that might be Okay. Let
me take a look at the White Sox. What do
we got with the White Sox here, Yeah, find them,
let me see hang on it' say, Oh, they're going
against the Pirates again. Howser. Howser's Howser's got great numbers
and he's a very underrated pitcher. He's got a one
to five six CRA with a five to two record.
Kind of concerning that they won yesterday, but I think
Howser is going to have a good game here. You
could take him if you really like plus money. Here's
a good way to go. Take Howser to record a win,
because to record a win, you have to accomplish three things.
You have to go five innings, you have to be
winning when you come out of the game, and your
bullpen has to hold for you. Now, the White Sox
bullpen not exactly the most reliable bullpen in Major League Baseball.
But I'm sure I haven't looked at the numbers right now,
but I'm sure you can get some really good plus
money if you take Howser to record a win. So
if you really like plus money, that would be a
decent way to go. I do like the White Sox
and Angels both to win today, but I definitely would
not parlay them together, because what's the point. I mean,
we're here to win money. You're gonna win more money
separating them in betting them separate.
Speaker 1: I am not a parlay person, so I don't care
how enticing it is. You're gonna be pissed off when
one loses.
Speaker 3: That's just exactly I get annoyed, like when I'm on
the right side and I lose, which is why I
don't like to do minus one and a half. I'll
do minus ones because if my side wins, at least
I get a push if they win by one. But
there's nothing more annoying than having the right team and
they win by one and you lose your bed. There's
nothing more annoying. I can't stand it.
Speaker 1: So Andrew Weidler wants to know if the Red Sox
Cubs could go under the total today.
Speaker 3: Red Sox and Cubs. Let's see what we got here.
We got Bayo and Imanaga. Let's see Cubs in Red Sox. Uh,
Red Sox Bullpen is in really good form. Here. Let's
see how Bao and e Monaga are doing. Yeah, both
pictures are in really good form too. The problem is
we got two powerpacked lineups that are kind of on fire,
or at least they were on fire going into the
All Star break. Two good bullpens, two good starting pictures. I,
if anything, I would go under in this game. But
I wouldn't like to go under eight. If this is
a nine or a nine and a half, yeah I
would go under. You can always alt things up a
little bit if you pay a little bit of money
to alt it up. So yeah, I would alt this
up to a nine. I ain't taken under, perhaps maybe
a nine and a half.
Speaker 1: Anything else before I let you go on this Saturday.
Now you gotta get it ready for your show.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I got a ton of stuff. I got a four
percent play in Major League Baseball out today. Also, I
put together all of my picture projections, outs, strikeouts, hits, everything,
and I make a PDF out of it, and that's
downloadable for free at my page at wager talk dot com.
Uh and yeah, I'm doing a show right after this.
I am not as charming and good at hosting as
you are. But you know, I waddle through the water
a little bit.
Speaker 1: And make allay not how you say it.
Speaker 3: Well, you're good at both. I'm not. I'm like an
ugly duckling in the water, just trying to get through
the show or either way. But yeah, I got a
lot four percent play. Go grab that, Go download my
picture props or my pitch your data for free right now.
I noticed you your prop, your prop queen Neon sign,
and look at look at what I got down here.
I got a Tokyo brand and Neon signed.
Speaker 1: Hey. Everyone needs a Neon.
Speaker 3: Sign, everyone needs Thanks Ariel.
Speaker 1: Thanks Tokyo Branded. Okay, we've got one more guest before
we dive into a little bit of premiere lacrosse with Den.
But before we get to that, let's get our feet
wet a little bit with some college football. We are
about a month away from Kelly and Vegas going to
Ireland for Week zero, but we are also almost like
we're like five six weeks away from like the real
week one. Let's bring him on to talk about it.
Jesse Schule joining the show. He actually like had a
huge steak before twenty four ounces.
Speaker 5: You said, Yeah, I didn't get through the whole thing.
I have a nice chunk left for after the show.
Speaker 1: Oh, I am so jealous. You have inspired me. Staking
eggs is what gets me through my life and my weekend. Jesse,
I know that on August thirtieth, LSU Clemson Clemson laying
three and a half total fifty six and a half. Obviously,
eyeball is going to be all over this huge matchup.
What's going on here? What are you seeing about these
two teams?
Speaker 5: This is a big game, probably the biggest game of
Week one. Unfortunately for LSU fans, Brian Kelly doesn't do
so well in big games, and they probably don't like
me reminding them of that. But Kelly's record in his
career against top ten teams six and twenty. He's two
and four against top ten teams with LSU. I think
Brian Kelly's a decent coach when it comes to recruiting,
building a team like a general manager, but when it
comes to calling plays a little bit questionable, especially when
he's matched up against a great head coach like Dabo,
who is nineteen and fifteen against top ten, two and
two against Nick Saban. It's got a couple natties. Offensive
coordinator for Clemson, Garrett Riley, when he came over from TCU,
everybody was expecting Clemson's offense to take right off. It
didn't happen right away, but it did happen last year.
Club Nick throwing for thirty six hundred plus yards, thirty
six touchdowns, six interceptions. Club Nick is primed for a
huge season. Clemson's bringing everybody back there at home. And
then you've got Kelly's mishaps in week one since he's
joined LSU last year, twenty seven to twenty loss as
a favorite against USC, forty five twenty four loss FSU
the year before, and twenty four to twenty three loss
to FSU in his first season at LSU. In a
matchup between two great teams but two coaches, it would
have set up for a mismatch in favor of Dabbo
and Clemson in there at home. So I like Clemson
in this game.
Speaker 1: Okay, Clemson, it is that. I know it was a
disappointing season last year. All on the year you hire
on Clemson.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean they're bringing everybody back. I mean they
won ten games, they were a playoff team, So I
think Clemson they're ready to take the next step. I
like the way Dabo coaches. I know he's been under
scrutiny in this new era of the transfer portal and
he's been a little bit resistant to that. But I'm
kind of of that same era as Dabbo, and he's
a guy that I'm cheering for, so certainly on the
Clemson bandwagon this season.
Speaker 1: Gotta put you on the spot because a while ago,
Jack Fulk asked you, what are your thoughts on Illinois football?
This year got a ceiling or a floor for them?
Speaker 5: Yeah, So when he said that, I looked at their
schedule and they're another team bringing back almost everybody from
last year. I like the coach. Only problem is they
play in the Big Ten, so you know they're not
going to get an easy schedule. But I'm looking at
their schedule, there's really only one game that you can
see that they're probably not going to win. That's against
Ohio State. So if you're gonna think about how good
Illinois football is going to do this year, you got
to think about the three opponents that sort of toss
up games, Washington, Indiana, and the third one let me
have a peek here, Washington, Indiana, and USC. And I'm
not that high on USC. I'm kind of high on
Washington and Indiana. But if they could win two of
those three, they'll finish with ten wins. They've got a
shot at the playoffs. I think Illinois will be a
competitive team in the Big Ten this year.
Speaker 1: I know you're talking a lot about returners, but returning production,
how overrated is it?
Speaker 5: I do think it is a mistake to believe that
returning production will result in a successful season. If you're
bringing back an elite quarterback or an elite offensive line,
if your coaching staff remains intact, that's a great thing.
But if you're an average team that underperformed and you're
bringing everybody back, I don't think that is something to
be proud of. We can take a look at last
year's class of returning production. Virginia Tech was number one
overall in returning production. They had a six and seven season,
very disappointing. Oklahoma State, Virginia, and Northwestern all had losing records.
They were all top ten in the country in returning production.
Clemson this year tops the list the number one returning production.
But you look at who they're bringing back. It's the
third season for Garrett Riley as the offensive coordinator. It'll
be Club Nick's second season with Garrett Riley. I think
they're primed for some success. The team they're bringing back,
the players they're bringing back the quarterback. Everything lines up
for Clemson to be successful, but some teams to be
wary of. I set it on this channel before Baylor.
They rank eleventh in returning production. I think a lot
of people are leaning too heavily into that. Last season
on a six game winning streak, but they beat bottom
feeders of the Big Twelve. Their quarterback put up big numbers,
but he didn't have a signature win over a decent
team Cincinnati. They were one of the worst teams in
the Big Twelve last year. So the guys they're bringing
back I'm not impressed with. And Stanford, I mean, they're
just a mess. They're just a plain old mess. So
for those teams, returning production is not going to be
significant in my opinion.
Speaker 1: Why the Colorado Jersey today.
Speaker 5: You haven't heard. Well, everybody in the chat knows. I've
got a bit of a reputation for being a Colorado hater.
I think that reputation is a little overblown. I have
made some big bets against Colorado, and every time you
do that, their fan base likes to attack you. And
at one point they told me Colorado is gonna win
this game. But double digits, you fool, I said, well,
if they do, I'll get myself a jersey. And I
got myself a jersey.
Speaker 1: Oh wow. See, I'm glad I didn't get put in
that position last year. That was the Guardians fan with me,
which is ironic because I had the Guardians to make
the playoffs last year, which they did, and then I said, well,
they're not going to go to the World Series. All
the Guardians fens. I went to the Yankees Guardians game.
I'm on the field, the team's coming up to me.
We heard you on MLP Network that you don't think
we're going to go to the World Series, and I'm like,
you're not. Guess what they didn't. So everyone could shut
up and leave us alone. We know we're talking about
and if we don't, then we'll make sure to pay
our debts and appreciate it. I appreciate Jesse.
Speaker 4: What do you promote?
Speaker 5: I'm not disappointed with the jersey. I'm happy with it.
Speaker 1: I like it. I like it. What are you promoting today?
Speaker 5: We do have a special at wager Talk right now,
you can get the entire CFL season for me absolutely
free with a purchase of all access full season college
and pro football. That's priced at seven hundred and seventy
seven bucks. I had a fantastic NFL playoffs last year,
and I'm the number one CFL handicapper at wager Talk
since I joined in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1: Jesse Schule, it was so great speaking to you on
this Saturday. I am so jealous that you have that
twenty four on stake waiting for you. Enjoy your Saturday, Jesse,
and we'll talk to you again in football season. So
we've got to get to our last, but certainly not
least part of the show because I'm repping the New
York Outlas, who were on a massive hot street coming
off a win against California Redwoods last night. Yesterday, Dan
and I were talking about a prop that didn't end
up cashing. We were kind of pissed because you know,
when you get Connor Shellenberger at seven assists, a career
high tied second most assists all time in a single game,
but doesn't get two goals. Dan, what the hell?
Speaker 2: Oh that was pretty brutal. I mean, every single player
pretty much on the Atlas offense last night had a
hat trick, which is what we expected, which was why
we liked Connor Shellenberger, who had been scoring goals like
crazy to go over his his goals and of course
he has a career night, but but doesn't net even
a goal for us. So so sometimes it's like that,
I mean early. You know, you can go to every
single stat you can have the most solid handicap. And
that's why your bank roll management is just as important
as your handicap, because even the ones that are slammed
dunk incredible handicaps, they're gonna lose about half the time.
And that's that we we just got bit by that
last night.
Speaker 1: Listen. I'm still repping the brand. Also, guys, those are sick.
It's awesome. Like Kelly's wearing like her normal sweatshirt and
I was like, no, no, no, I've got like the
legit looking one, like I look like I got.
Speaker 2: The I got the preppy ass vineyard vines.
Speaker 4: Actually, yeah, yeah, I have.
Speaker 1: I have a pl T shirt which I probably should
switch into because it's starting to get hot. But Marley
the Dog had me up at five point thirty in
the morning, so it was sweatshirt season. We do have
a cross games tonight, and for people that don't know,
these games happened pretty late, so well not today, but yeah,
yesterday it was late Denver Outlaws Boston Cannons three pm
Eastern and then the Water Dogs and the Whip Snakes
are at eight pm Eastern. Anything today, Dan.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So we'll start with the one that you and
I stumbled upon this morning, and that's this guy that
we have had a great read on, Jared Bernhardt. You
might actually recognize the game because he played for the
Atlanta Falcons for just a little brief stint there, and
then he made his return back to lacrosse, which is,
you know, clearly his best sport. He won the Heisman
of Lacrosse, a to Wharton Trophy winner, and we've really
been excited about this Denver team since he joined, simply
because he's joining three other players on that team who
are to Wharton Trophy winners again the Heisman Trophy lacrosse.
So they are just absolutely stacked. And since they've got
their feet under him with Jared Bernhardt, they are on
an absolute tear four straight wins that they've been able
to rattle off. They're looking great and a huge part
of what they're doing is what Jared Bernhardt is doing.
And right now, looking over at the blue book, you're
seeing his point total at two and a half and
it's plus one eighteen. We got bit on the ass
taking a plus money prop yesterday. Ariel, I don't think
it happens back to back because I think what you're
seeing is that FanDuel is waiting season long stats way
too heavily in this number and not paying attention to
maybe what happened in recent form, because in recent form
he's gone over this number in three straight game. He's
coming off a five point performance. And why is that
he started poorly in his first two games Because it
was the first time he played the cross in like
five years. So it reason being that you know, he
finally has his legs under him and he's playing great.
What Denver has done, he's a huge part of it.
Boston has been an over team through and through, largely
because they're giving up goals in bunches the same that
they're scoring it. I expect today to be a shootout.
If it's a shootout, a guy who's been constantly involved, Ariel,
you and I both like this one. Jared Bernhardt of
the Denver Outlaws. You can find this on FanDuel over
two and a half points plus one eighteen as is
the play that I was looking at. And then I
gave a client play to Andy Lang and his clients.
So Andy has a whole team of handicappers that release cricket, golf,
hockey MMA. I am the lacrosse branch of the the
Andy Lang handicapping team. What do you think we got,
like over over three thousand people watching live? Should we
give them the client play for free?
Speaker 1: What do you think they till the end of the show?
Speaker 2: All right, Well, well Johnny Detroit is hopefully on vacation,
so he doesn't know that we're giving this one out
for free but paid client play for Andy Lang. We're
looking at the dog tonight, not the water Dogs though,
We're looking at the Maryland Whipsnakes getting the goal and
a half. Ariel, I mean, you know from this is
the first time you really, you know, dove in here
on lacrosse. But you hopped in at a great time
because underdogs it's like free money right now. And you know,
I hate to say lock, I hate to say this.
Eighteen eight against the number are underdogs this year, just
blindly betting them. If you told me I could go
on eighteen and eight run betting anything, sign me up yesterday, right.
So we're looking at the underdog here, not simply because
there's this great, you know, ats trend that they've been
able to rack up here this entire season in PLLL,
but this is a sneaky good one because sure, Maryland
whip Snakes, they're sitting at the bottom of the standings.
They're two and four straight up. But a large part
of that eighteen and eight against the spread is what
the w is what the whip Snakes are doing. They're
four and two against the number. So, yes, underperforming as
far as wins and losses are concerned. But good teams win,
great teams cover, So I guess that begs to explain
that Maryland might just be a great team four and
two against the number in this matchup. I think the
reason why you're seeing the water Dogs favored is because
they've been playing well. Sure, but you know, these books
also take into account what happens, you know, see and
long for a lot of these teams are year over year.
Philadelphia is seven and three against the number since twenty
twenty against this Maryland Whipsnakes squad. However, only one of
those covers Ariel came with Philadelphia sitting as favorites, so yeah,
they've covered seven against them. Only one of those seven
has come with Maryland Whipsnakes as a favorite. So for me, Ariel,
give me the dog plus one and a half around
minus one eighteen. You can shop around and find that
Maryland whip Snakes getting the goals against the Philadelphia Waterdogs.
That is the client best bet play for Andy Lang
and his clients over there. So so two plays for
you here. Hopefully we can get a little two and
oh sweep going for the folks.
Speaker 1: My Maryland people are gonna love it. Listen, we lost yesterday.
We don't lose two.
Speaker 4: In a row. We don't.
Speaker 1: We can't, No, no, we can't. So we've got two
Premier Lacrosse games today, guys, Boston Canons, Denver Outlaws at three,
water Dogs Whips at eight. Make sure to tune into
Formie Lacrosse and always follow Dan Obratt Newby Talks because
that's where you get your PLL action and right here
at Wager Talk all the time. Dan, you're the best.
Thanks for running the show. Thank you for all of
you for tuning into the show on this Saturday putting
up with me and my kind of low energy no voice,
but I didn't have a coff attack. If you guys
want to go to the prop Queen Sports YouTube page,
you could go to the live section and you'll see
about twelve minutes into the show when Steve Merrill saves
my ass because he has to cover for me when
I had a cop attack. So if you would really
like to be entertained, because you're statistic and enjoy watching
other people in pain, you could go to the prop
Queen Sports YouTube page subscribe and you could find me
having a cough tack. So I'm gonna go save my voice,
and I'm gonna go write the prop queen dot com newsletter,
which you could check out as well at the prop
queen dot com. I send out the newsletter once on
the weekends and then twice during the week if you're
a premium subscriber, so go sign up because that's where
I give you all my Major League Baseball props. But
thanks everyone for tuning in today. Thank you Dan for
running the show. Thank you to Tokyo, Brandon, Jesse, Yanni
the Greek All for tuning in and coming in on
the show. As a great guest Dan is a bad boy.
Well he's married now, so he can't really be a
bad oh. He's telling that bad boy great. On that note,
I'm signing up. Have a great weekend everyone, Hope you
have some winners.