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Speaker 1: One you are that happy Saturday. Welcome to Las Call.

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I'm the prep Queen Ariel Epstein. As you guys may know,

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I've been filling in for Kelly in Vegas all summer.

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The days are getting there will dwindle in only a

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few more last calls left before Kelly gets to take

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back over. But today we've got some great guests coming on.

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Of course, Yanni the Greek gonna tell you where all

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the sharp action is today on the board. Got a

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lot of Major League Baseball to talk through. Uh, And

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then we've got Tokyo Brandon, who's gonna go deeper into

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the Major League Baseball world answering all of your questions

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so that you guys could find out where the edge

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is today, whether it's prop sides totals. We got you covered.

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Then Jesse Schule also gonna come on. We're gonna talk

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a little college football, So get ready because one fourth

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of July is over. Like it is, We're going college football,

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and thank you Sean Michael. I had a coffe attack

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yesterday on air, which was really embarrassing. But I'm not

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feeling hot, so that's what's great, because we're gonna bring

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on some great guests, so that I don't need to

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talk so much, starting with our very own from here

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at wait talk you know me, you love and he

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is the sharpest guy you may know. They call him

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Vegas Runner v R. Yannied the Greek live from Las Vegas.

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Let's bring on Yanni. Happy Saturday, Yannie, Yanni? Is this

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sound off?

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Speaker 2: Can he not hear us?

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Speaker 3: Mister, mister Greek gambler?

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Speaker 1: Hello, Yani, Yanni over here.

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Speaker 2: Here's the problem with when here's the problemari all with

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When VR has technical difficulties, there's gonna be no way

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to reach. So I'll do my best here. But but

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we can talk to TV in the meanwhile while I

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while I troubleshoot our man.

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Speaker 1: We need areas, Yanny.

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Speaker 4: I had the volume down, Yanni over here. But there's

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a CFL going on. There's PFL going on. I just

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placed two p another PFL. Bet. You guys can have it.

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You guys can have it. The pfos right now in.

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Speaker 1: That's what you were in the zone with, was PFL.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I was firing and I gave out a

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four percent right now on Corey Anderson Cory Anderson at

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plus one ten. As long as you're getting plus money.

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It's a queen flip fight. Anything plus one on one

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or better. You're good. Corey Anderson and Justin Clark. Justin Clark,

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I gave out at minus one thirty. I think he's

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up about minus one forty right now. I think one

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fifty or better. You're good still Justin Clark, Corey Anderson

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in PFL. That's going on over the next like thirty

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to sixty minutes. So sorry, had the fire, had the fire?

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Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, that was so funny. I'm glad that

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I got a good laugh to start my morning. Yannie,

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how have you been. I feel like I haven't seen

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you in a few weeks.

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Speaker 4: Good. Good. I've been busy, Like I didn't take a vacation.

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This is with the first All Star break. I haven't

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taken vacation in like a long time, just because I'm

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just so busy. Just got so much going on and

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been real busy with accounts and moving and because of

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the Summer League, the NBA Summer League. I was so

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prepared for it, and I mean that the results have

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been ridiculous. I'm glad I did take off for it.

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So it's just been busy, just been firing away, waiting

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for football, getting prepared for football, starting to study a

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little more each and every day, and gave out like

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four college football season win totals earlier this week. So

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I'm just in the zone, really in the zone. As

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far as the gambling, I'm locked in area. I'm pretty

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much locked in. So things are good right now.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned the NBA Summer League. I know that people

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like you love betting the NBA Summer League the same

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way you love betting spring training. How do you go

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about handicapping the summer league? And have you been successful?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, We've been really, really, really successful in the NBA.

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I mean I think I went like four and oho

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the other night. It's just like every night we've been

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making money. I think that's number one prop for the

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last seven days. Last three days, it's mostly NBA Summer

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League and now baseball of course another good night. But

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for me, I just pigged. I'll tell you the truth.

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I moved the stuff for a group that does the

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NBA Summer League, and from everything I see, the lines

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move really quickly and really significantly, and most of it

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is based on information of who's actually playing. Like that's

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why you see a lot of these moves, and how

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they're getting the information of who's playing or which team

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really cares. I have no idea, but that's pretty much

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has been the simple handicap. From what I'm seeing. They're

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zoning in on a couple teams that they obviously have

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good information on because it seems to be the same

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teams we're betting sides and totals on. And like I said,

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these groups are just getting that information in Summer League,

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and I'm just betting it for them. I'm not handicapping

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the stuff because to be honest with you, I wouldn't

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even know how to handicap the Summer League.

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Speaker 1: Is there anything today in the NBA Summer League.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm sure there is. Yeah, I haven't gotten anything yet.

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We haven't bet anything, but yeah, there's like six seven games.

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I haven't gotten anything yet in the accounts. That's why

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I just kept for refreshing. Nothing in Summer League yet.

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But yeah, that's where it's at. And the thing is

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they don't fire like too early. A lot of that

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Summer League stuff comes like before the game starts, like

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they'll get a nugget of information like maybe this these

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this player is not going to play or isn't one

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hundred percent. And I think they're betting that kind of

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information because a lot of it does come late. It's

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not like the lines are that far off like where

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they're just blasting the openers. It seems more like it's

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information based and that tends to come in throughout the day.

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But so far, nothing in uh NBA Summer League. The

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only thing we bet so far PFL, UFC soccer all

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over the world, and some Major League baseball sides. But

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again it's eight am here in Vegas, and the baseball

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starts to come in over the next like two hours.

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We got a little more.

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Speaker 1: So do you want to get to UFC first?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, wherever you want to go.

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Speaker 1: I'm good, okay, because you know I got a questions

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about baseball, but UFC, I just blindly trust you.

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Speaker 4: Here's where I could go. Here's where we'll go. We'll

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go to the main event because I'll give you two

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bets here real quickly, listen, it's Holloway's retirement fight. The

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stages set for him to go off in the blaze

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of glory win the BNF title in his hometown of

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New Orleans. Final fight against an opponent he's already beaten twice.

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But I think this is a very different fight, and

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I think the betting line offers a lot of value

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fading Dustin Pourrier for this perfect story to not end

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so perfectly. And the bottom line is this, Forget the

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first fight because it was Max's debut in the UFC.

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Let's throw it that out. It was a long time ago,

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but it was the second fight that I'm looking at mostly,

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And here's what sticks out to me. Max closed it

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about a minus two twenty favorite. So even though Dustin

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was coming in on a hot streak and Max was

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coming in on a hot streak, they still fault. Max

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would win this fight close to seventy percent of the time.

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And it was Max's first time moving up to lightweight,

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so he was a featherweight fighting one hundred and forty

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five pounds now moving up to one fifty five, and

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he's the favorite over a guy who's been established at

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that weight class and kicking ass. So it tells me

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how how strongly the market valued Max Holloway. But here's

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the problem. Even though he out outlanded Poorier, he outstruck Poorier,

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the difference was the damage that Pourier inflicted on Holloway

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because he was the smaller guy that night. Holloway was

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a true one to fifty five that night, he was

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probably like one seventy. Max was a one forty five.

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The most he was that night was one fifty five,

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not even one sixty. So Poorier was a lot bigger,

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a lot stronger. That's no longer the case. Max is

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now a legit lightweight and I think that's going to

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make all the difference, coupled with the motivation. We can't

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quantify prisal motivation. But the last thing Holloway wants to

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be is the high light reel for Pourier's career where

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Max losses UFC debut to him, lost the chance at

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the lightweight title, and his lightweight debut to him, And

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now is going to be his highlight reel in his

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retirement fight. No, no, no, I think you're gonna get

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a very motivated Max Holloway and just watching that second fight,

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and you can't throw too many conclusions off one single fight.

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But he didn't get beat in that fight. He didn't

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win that fight, but he didn't lose that fight. And

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I think a one to fifty five Max Holloway that

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night would have won that fight. Give me Max Holloway,

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and more importantly, inside the distance. That's correct. We're gonna

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go under four and a half and we're gonna take

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plus money to do that. Rarely do I go under

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four and a half. I've said it before. If you

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did nothing but go over three and a half over

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four and a halfs you've made double digit return on

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investment over the last decade. Because the MMA lions are

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shaded towards finishes, shaded towards the bias of the unders.

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But that doesn't mean we blindly bet overs. It means

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we're very selective when we do bet the unders. And

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this is one of those spots where I really do

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think these guys are going to leave it out there.

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It's for the BMF, it's not for like it's a

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lightweight title or anything like that. It's a retirement fight.

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Max is coming off a loss, but prior to that

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he had that Gaugey knockout in the BMF fight. Like,

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I don't think these guys are going to be out

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there for like a technically sound point fighting. I think

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they're going for finishes. So let's go Max Holloway. Let's

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go under and see if we could sweep the main event.

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Max Holloway and Under in the main event. And don't forget,

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I have my package up already, two premiums in there.

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Two more premiums will be in there in the next

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thirty minutes. And there's the five percent as well, number

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one five percent last three sixty five, number one in

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five percent this year. And didn't have one last UFC card,

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but we have one today. It's a dog still available,

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so hopefully we have a good night in UFC, good

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fights tonight.

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Speaker 1: Janni. I'm looking right now as the bet splits, and

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I'm seeing that some of the most bet on props

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for tonight is Poier by submission, Poier by decision or

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technical decision, halloway uh, knockout TKO or Dqoyer by ko

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z ko or DQ and Kevin Holland k O t

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k O dq or submission. Those are some of the

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most bet on props that I'm seeing tonight. Did any

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of those stand out as a fade the public?

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Speaker 4: Because I think it's going to be a finish. I

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like Max Max inside the distance. I like a lot

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of times with those props when you're betting the narrative.

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You're usually not getting the best of it, and you're

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better all fading the narrative. That's usually I love it.

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Speaker 1: I call it fade the public, and I love getting

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these betsplits where I could fade the public. And I

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love asking people like you if there is a public

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side that you would be fading.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, out the the pooriate by submission, Like in the

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perfect world, that's how he would win this fight. But

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it's not going to happen. He's not going to submit

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Max Holloway. He's not getting them out of there. I

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know that's what everyone wants to see. That's an auto fad,

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that's not happening. That's not I think if you're gonna

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bet any kind of prop in that main event, you

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want to look to the Holloway side, and you want

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to look to inside the distance. I think you're gonna

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get some good value there because of just how tough

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Pooria is, like just how durable he is. And I

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think that's even going a little bit against the narrative,

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because again, this fight is favored to go over, it's

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favored to go the distance for the judges to declare

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the winner. I don't think that's gonna happen. That's why

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we're getting plus money fading that narrative. So yeah, Max

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inside the distance the prop I would go for and

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fade those Holloway inside the distance props. He's not getting

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Max at it or he's not finishing Max.

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Speaker 1: Sean Michael wants to know if there's a sleeper in

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the UFC today.

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Speaker 4: Like a dog, a nice dog, I'll give you a sleep.

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A dog that was sticking out to me is McVeigh.

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Jackson mcvay's like a five to one dog plus five

237
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hundred against Bruno Pahana. McVeigh hasn't hasn't been in the UFC,

238
00:12:01,919 --> 00:12:05,279
hasn't even full contender series. But this kid didn't get

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this shot by accident. He's as tough as they come.

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00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:11,200
It's just he hasn't had a level of competition yet

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that warrants being able to be a UFC fighter. That's

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why he's this big of a dog. But there's no

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00:12:18,799 --> 00:12:21,279
way Faeta should be this big of a dog over

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Jackson McVay. Mcvay's gonna have, I think a nice reach advantage.

245
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He's a lot younger than Faheta, and he's got the

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confidence and swagger of a kid that just doesn't even

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know better yet, Like he's just getting guys out of

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there in the very first round. And when you have

249
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that kind of confidence sometimes it's like you don't even

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00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:44,559
know you're in like a big Like the UFC is

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such a big deal, But I don't think this kid's

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gonna be overwhelmed by it. I just don't. At plus

253
00:12:50,519 --> 00:12:52,320
five hundred, you got to take a stab. You gotta

254
00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:56,360
sprinkle a little something something on Jackson McVeigh. I don't

255
00:12:56,399 --> 00:12:58,559
think Bruno Fahetta should be a minus eight hundred or

256
00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:01,240
greater against anybody. So yeah, give me McVay. That's a

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little sprinkle anything.

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Speaker 1: I know, this might be a little crazy w NBA

259
00:13:06,279 --> 00:13:07,679
All Star anything there.

260
00:13:09,159 --> 00:13:18,159
Speaker 4: The w n B A let me see, no, no,

261
00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:21,759
no no. I was gonna say over. The only thing

262
00:13:21,759 --> 00:13:24,360
I would look is go over over all star games.

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Though that's a little square.

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Speaker 1: People asking me about the w NBA All Star Game

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yesterday on the prop Queen Pot and I'm like, guys, seriously,

266
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like I understand that we could do some crazy crap,

267
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but like the w NBA All Star Game, I think

268
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is where I draw the line.

269
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Speaker 4: Yeah, there's got to be a better there's got to

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00:13:38,840 --> 00:13:40,240
be a better bet on the board.

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00:13:40,639 --> 00:13:43,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, like Major where we've got a fully loaded card.

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What's coming on MLB on.

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Speaker 4: The first bet we placed was on the Yankees. You

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00:13:50,639 --> 00:13:53,720
did Yankees? Yeah, that was after faded him yesterday. Atlanta

275
00:13:53,799 --> 00:13:55,399
was one of my I think a four percent played

276
00:13:55,399 --> 00:13:58,080
for me Atlanta. I had Atlanta yesterday. We're coming with

277
00:13:58,240 --> 00:14:02,919
the Yankees today minus one twenty Arizona Arizona nine to

278
00:14:02,919 --> 00:14:07,399
fifty six, minus won ten and nine sixteen. Seattle minus

279
00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:12,720
one twenty. So we got three small favorites Yankees, Arizona,

280
00:14:12,759 --> 00:14:17,039
and Seattle. Again, it's early. The Canadian group does the

281
00:14:18,159 --> 00:14:20,840
moves the market in Major League Baseball. Those guys tend

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00:14:20,879 --> 00:14:24,519
to bet like ten am Pacific time on weekdays at

283
00:14:24,559 --> 00:14:27,360
about nine a ham Pacific time on weekend for whatever reason,

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00:14:28,039 --> 00:14:30,600
that'll probably be about forty five minutes, So subscribers, you

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00:14:30,639 --> 00:14:33,200
will be receiving baseball like you've had been the last

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00:14:33,399 --> 00:14:38,159
you know, this entire summer over the next hour. But

287
00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:41,960
so far, that's that's what they hit early, the Yankees, Arizona,

288
00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:45,480
and Seattle as they returned. But oh real quickly we

289
00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:50,919
bet series bets yesterday, three series bets prior to first pitch,

290
00:14:51,399 --> 00:14:55,639
and they were Pittsburgh, Dodgers and the Mets all chalky,

291
00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:58,639
all chalky, especially the Dodgers and the Mets. Both of

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00:14:58,679 --> 00:15:02,000
them were chalky. And if if I'm not mistaken, I think,

293
00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:05,120
uh two of them, all three of them lost yesterday.

294
00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:08,240
I know Pittsburgh lost to the White Sox. I know

295
00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:14,840
what's it called lost too? The Mets lost, right, and

296
00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:17,440
and the Dodgers lost all three. Yeah, the Dodgers lost

297
00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:19,399
in Milwaukee. If the Mets lost, then they're zero and

298
00:15:19,519 --> 00:15:23,039
three right now on series bets. Yeah, I don't see

299
00:15:23,039 --> 00:15:25,200
the Mets. Did the Mets get ringing down? Oh? The Mets.

300
00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:27,919
The Mets lost to Sinci. So yeah, Pittsburgh, Dodgers and

301
00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:31,960
the Mets. Those three we bet the series yesterday right

302
00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:34,960
before first pitch, and those series bets have done real well.

303
00:15:35,039 --> 00:15:37,240
So what does that tell you? That means over today

304
00:15:37,279 --> 00:15:40,000
and tomorrow we need to go to and on in Pittsburgh.

305
00:15:40,039 --> 00:15:41,639
We need to go two and O on the Dodgers.

306
00:15:41,679 --> 00:15:43,440
We need to go too and O on the Mets

307
00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:48,679
to win those series bets. So use that information as

308
00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:52,759
you wish, but we need Pittsburgh Dodgers and the Mets today.

309
00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:56,360
We need Pittsburgh Dodgers and the Mets tomorrow as well,

310
00:15:56,759 --> 00:16:00,480
or those series bets go down the drain. And only

311
00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:04,480
because I absolutely adore you and for your show only,

312
00:16:04,759 --> 00:16:06,879
I'm gonna give you, guys real quickly. I got a

313
00:16:06,919 --> 00:16:09,399
couple soccer bets that just came in. Don't know if

314
00:16:09,399 --> 00:16:10,799
you guys want to use them, what you want to

315
00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:13,399
do with them, but these have done so well, so

316
00:16:13,559 --> 00:16:16,960
well for us, so real quickly. This is in Brazil,

317
00:16:17,039 --> 00:16:22,480
Brazil Series A, Series A in Brazil, it's Corinthians in

318
00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:26,600
South Polo, Corinthians in South Paulo. We're going over one

319
00:16:26,679 --> 00:16:30,440
point seventy five over one point seventy five minus one two,

320
00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:34,919
so that's San Paolo and Corinthians over one point seventy five.

321
00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:40,320
That's Brazil Series A. Also in Argentina Super League Argentina

322
00:16:40,399 --> 00:16:46,039
Super League, we're going with Sarmiento Saramiento and Goo DUIs

323
00:16:46,159 --> 00:16:50,080
Cruz Good Duys Cruz under one point seventy five, so

324
00:16:50,159 --> 00:16:54,080
that's Sarmiento, GOA Duys Cruz under one point seven five

325
00:16:54,519 --> 00:16:57,879
also up to minus one ten. That's in Argentina and

326
00:16:57,919 --> 00:17:00,000
I'm gonna give you a draw plus two thirty five.

327
00:17:00,159 --> 00:17:02,320
The other day we hit a draw plus two fifty.

328
00:17:02,559 --> 00:17:05,640
Here's a draw for you. Only because it's arial doing this,

329
00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:12,799
and this one's in League one Romania, it's we're going

330
00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:17,079
with uh Stoia Bucharest I'm even gonna stall that for you.

331
00:17:17,599 --> 00:17:20,759
B U c u r e s t I b

332
00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:25,079
U c u r e s t I verse Petrousal.

333
00:17:25,519 --> 00:17:29,039
That's petro so probably some uh what's it called a

334
00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:31,400
gas company or something. That's what it sounds like to me.

335
00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:35,200
P e t r o U l u l fifty

336
00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:40,880
two in a draw. So we're betting BUCHARESTI and Petrosol

337
00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:45,400
fifty two draw plus two thirty five. Yeah, only only

338
00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:49,319
here where you get Argentina, Brazil and even got some

339
00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:51,039
Mexican League for you. But we don't want to go

340
00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:54,480
to those levels. No one confused. The betters out there too.

341
00:17:55,599 --> 00:17:59,000
Overwhelms the betters, It overwhelms them.

342
00:17:59,039 --> 00:18:01,440
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give people, well, I'll ask one more before

343
00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:04,599
I let you go. People know about this one. They

344
00:18:04,599 --> 00:18:06,519
don't need to go dig in for a series on

345
00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:09,000
they like you did in COVID times with us, I

346
00:18:09,039 --> 00:18:10,599
was like one of the first times I spoke to you,

347
00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:13,880
and I was mind blowing the Open. Any live action

348
00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:14,799
on the Open.

349
00:18:14,839 --> 00:18:17,079
Speaker 4: No, And I thought we were gonna miss it. Yesterday

350
00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:20,960
we were just waiting on a four percent under for

351
00:18:21,039 --> 00:18:22,880
the cut to be one forty three and a half

352
00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:25,319
and under, and it was like one forty four all day.

353
00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:28,599
But I logged into the accounts this morning and it cashed,

354
00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:31,480
so obviously we hit that one somehow. The only thing

355
00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:34,039
I did see here, I'll tell you there was a

356
00:18:34,079 --> 00:18:40,279
match a matchup in what's it called in in round three,

357
00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:42,400
but I don't know if it started. Let me give

358
00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:44,599
it to you real quick, just in case it has it.

359
00:18:44,599 --> 00:18:49,160
It was Bryson d Chambeau d Chambeau over Corey Connors

360
00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:52,559
up to minus one fifty. I think that's what they wanted,

361
00:18:53,079 --> 00:18:55,880
Bryson d Chambeau. That's the only golf I have, but

362
00:18:56,119 --> 00:18:58,039
I'm not sure if that's even still on the board.

363
00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:00,359
That got fired. When I woke up that we had,

364
00:19:00,519 --> 00:19:02,880
my cousin had already bet that for them, so you know,

365
00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:04,599
he's on the East coast. He starts a little earlier

366
00:19:04,599 --> 00:19:07,440
than I do, so yeah, that that's all I had

367
00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:10,400
in the goth Nothing else came in and I just

368
00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:13,880
refreshed for you guys. Nothing nothing, nothing. I was hoping

369
00:19:14,079 --> 00:19:16,279
to send you off with some summer league or something,

370
00:19:16,319 --> 00:19:17,920
but uh yeah, that's gonna have.

371
00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:20,559
Speaker 1: To weigh Johnny, what are you promoting today?

372
00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:25,200
Speaker 4: UFC, Baby, UFC and Major League Baseball? Right now, running hot,

373
00:19:25,279 --> 00:19:27,319
running very hot. The baseball packet would be up with

374
00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:28,839
in the next thirty minutes. Like I said, I got

375
00:19:28,839 --> 00:19:32,039
three or four plays already in the chamber ready to go.

376
00:19:32,599 --> 00:19:35,920
But the UFC the five percent play, which I absolutely love.

377
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:37,920
I even placed the cash bet. I swear to God

378
00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:41,839
on my life, I did this in the last five

379
00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:45,359
percent before leaving the Red Rock yesterday with my girl.

380
00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:47,720
I emptied everything out on the on the table at

381
00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:50,559
the at the sports book, even three hundred and twenty

382
00:19:50,599 --> 00:19:54,200
dollars that was in chips. I bet on this five percent.

383
00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:56,559
So I had ended up only having like less than

384
00:19:56,559 --> 00:19:58,240
a little less than two dimes. I had like eighteen

385
00:19:58,319 --> 00:20:00,640
hundred and something bucks on me. But I still I

386
00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:03,200
pushed that because we just went for dinner. But talking

387
00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:05,680
over dinner, I talked myself even more like in this

388
00:20:05,759 --> 00:20:07,960
five percent that I said, you know what, let's do

389
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:09,359
it like we did last time and just put all

390
00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:10,880
the money before we go home. So we go home

391
00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:12,960
break put it all in that fighter, so hopefully we've

392
00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:14,000
got to come back and cash it.

393
00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:17,319
Speaker 1: Johnny the Greek, he's the best. Make sure to check

394
00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:19,640
him out all over Wadge youer talk platforms. Have a

395
00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:21,400
great weekend, Johnny. Good luck tonight.

396
00:20:21,519 --> 00:20:23,240
Speaker 4: Love you guys, Thank you. That's the luck.

397
00:20:24,079 --> 00:20:26,359
Speaker 1: We've got a dave deeper into Major League Baseball. I

398
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:27,960
haven't looked at the card yet. I'm going to do

399
00:20:28,039 --> 00:20:31,359
that after the show, so to help us get started,

400
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,440
we've got a lot of action, big card. We're going

401
00:20:34,519 --> 00:20:38,720
over to Tokyo, Tokyo, Brandon joining the show, staying up

402
00:20:38,799 --> 00:20:42,400
late for us. Ask man behind him. We absolutely love it. Tokyo.

403
00:20:43,839 --> 00:20:47,440
Happy MLB Saturday or is it Saturday or Sunday for you?

404
00:20:48,319 --> 00:20:51,720
Speaker 3: It's uh, it's just past midnight here in Tokyo, so

405
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:55,240
technically Sunday morning. Nice to see you again, Ariel. Yes,

406
00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:57,759
you need to stay home tonight and eat a steak.

407
00:20:57,839 --> 00:21:00,920
Speaker 1: I think yeah, I think my body needs a steak

408
00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:04,599
and like a lot of help. I just pushed myself

409
00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:08,279
to the limit until I almost die but I'll watch

410
00:21:08,279 --> 00:21:11,480
Major League Baseball too with my Steak and Tokyo Brandon.

411
00:21:11,519 --> 00:21:13,200
I know the Chat was all excited that you were

412
00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:16,119
coming on, So Chat, please get all your questions in

413
00:21:16,319 --> 00:21:19,839
for TV so we could answer them in baseball. First,

414
00:21:20,039 --> 00:21:21,759
I guess what stood out to you the most on

415
00:21:21,799 --> 00:21:22,160
the card.

416
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:27,160
Speaker 3: Well, before I get to that, I want to let

417
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:29,519
everyone know I have a four percent play out today,

418
00:21:29,599 --> 00:21:31,559
so go grab that, and after this show, I'm going

419
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:34,799
to be doing a live one hour open my spreadsheet

420
00:21:34,839 --> 00:21:36,839
to everyone and cap some games, so be sure to

421
00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:40,599
tune into that. Quite a few things pop out to

422
00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:44,880
me when I looked over the card today. Fortunately, I'm

423
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:47,880
on Japan time obviously, so I get the benefit of

424
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:51,119
checking the numbers right when they come out while people

425
00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:55,960
in the US are probably sleeping. So yeah, quite a

426
00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:58,519
few things jump out at me. Let me tackle the

427
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:02,119
Angels Phillies game. First of all, we got Kikuchi going

428
00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:05,279
against Taiwan Walker, and I've never really been a fan

429
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:09,279
of either one of these pitchers, but Kikuchi is kind

430
00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:11,839
of starting to turn me around this season. He's pitching

431
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:15,079
really well, which is unusual for pitchers who go to

432
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:19,640
the Angels usually they're terrible there, but he went there

433
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,799
from the Astros and he's actually been doing quite well.

434
00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:26,480
I have him ranked a little bit higher than Taiwan Walker.

435
00:22:27,279 --> 00:22:30,400
Most people probably were surprised that the Angels came through yesterday.

436
00:22:31,279 --> 00:22:33,119
I think they're going to come through again today. Is

437
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:36,000
big underdogs here because they got the better bullpen in

438
00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:39,559
current form. They have the better lineup by far in

439
00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:42,720
current form. I have him ranked five out of thirty teams,

440
00:22:42,799 --> 00:22:45,240
where I got the Phillies ranked twenty two out of

441
00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:48,720
thirty teams. Yes, Philadelphia's lineup is more talented on paper,

442
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:52,079
but they're not performing right now, going into the All

443
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:54,920
Star Break and coming out of it not performing well.

444
00:22:55,799 --> 00:22:58,720
Bullpen Angels advantage. So I kind of like the Angels

445
00:22:58,720 --> 00:22:59,279
in this one.

446
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:04,759
Speaker 1: Oh okay, so you like the Angels today, I'm looking

447
00:23:04,759 --> 00:23:07,160
to see if the chat had anything for you too.

448
00:23:08,079 --> 00:23:11,799
I know that Yannie gave us Yankees, d Backs, and Mariners.

449
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:16,279
Any of those stand out, So let's.

450
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:19,319
Speaker 3: Take a look at the Diamondbacks here. They got They're

451
00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:24,319
going against the Cardinals, Sonny Gray and Ryan Nelson. Gray

452
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:28,000
is a guy who's really good, but the books tend

453
00:23:28,039 --> 00:23:30,079
to give him a little bit too much credit. Not

454
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:33,119
to say that he's not a good picture, but they

455
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:35,279
do give him a little bit too much credit. Let

456
00:23:35,279 --> 00:23:39,000
me see what my numbers pull up here. Diamondbacks underperforming

457
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:42,240
at the lineup, but they really have a talented lineup.

458
00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:45,440
Their bullpen has been trash since the beginning of the season, though.

459
00:23:46,319 --> 00:23:49,240
I've got the Saint Louis Cardinals ranked a little bit

460
00:23:49,279 --> 00:23:53,119
higher than the Diamondbacks in almost every category. And Sunny

461
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:57,839
Gray is not walking anybody I do. Since I was

462
00:23:57,839 --> 00:24:00,200
at MLB Scout, I have this formula that I is

463
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:02,000
probably no one else in the world uses it. I

464
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:04,839
don't know, I just made it up, but I do

465
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:09,200
a ratio for balls to balls, bases on balls to strikeouts,

466
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:12,759
and I calculate the percentage. Sonny Gray is in a

467
00:24:12,799 --> 00:24:16,359
really top percentile. He only walks fourteen percent of the

468
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:19,680
guys he strikes out, which is a really good rate. Generally,

469
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:23,480
the pictures will be between thirty and forty percent. Ryan

470
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:25,759
Nelson is a little bit above at forty three, but

471
00:24:25,799 --> 00:24:29,079
that's not too alarming. He's just not a really good picture.

472
00:24:29,799 --> 00:24:32,759
I don't like Nelson. I do like the Cardinals today,

473
00:24:32,759 --> 00:24:38,799
but given the fact that they couldn't hit yesterday. Kind

474
00:24:38,799 --> 00:24:41,240
of worries me a little bit. Taking a look at

475
00:24:41,319 --> 00:24:45,319
Ryan Nelson's splits. He performs really well at home in

476
00:24:45,759 --> 00:24:49,119
forty five innings. He's got a two ERA. So if anything,

477
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:53,079
I'd probably go under here because both teams are underperforming,

478
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:56,079
and I like Ryan Nelson at home, and I like

479
00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:58,880
Sunny Gray overall. So I would probably do an under

480
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:01,880
in the Diamondbacks Cardinal's game. I haven't pulled the trigger yet.

481
00:25:03,839 --> 00:25:05,640
Speaker 1: Nate wants to know if you have any thoughts on

482
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,200
the Padres Padres.

483
00:25:08,319 --> 00:25:11,519
Speaker 3: I certainly do. This is a this is a game

484
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:15,680
that I like to attack today. I'm attacking this in

485
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:20,079
several ways. But we got Darvish. We got Darvish going

486
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:24,759
against Mitchell Parker. Mitchell Parker is a pretty bad picture. Actually,

487
00:25:26,839 --> 00:25:29,880
how bad is he? I'll tell you in just a moment.

488
00:25:31,279 --> 00:25:33,799
Let's see what I got here. Yeah, I got both

489
00:25:33,839 --> 00:25:38,000
of these pictures underperforming quite miserably. I take all the

490
00:25:38,039 --> 00:25:40,920
two hundred some starting pictures and I curve them on

491
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:44,240
a curve of thirty, and I got Mitchell Parker ranked

492
00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:48,160
twenty nine out of thirty. That's pretty bad. Looking at

493
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:53,640
his looking at his numbers, isolating his his one on

494
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:57,440
one numbers. I got him giving up more than six hits.

495
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:03,200
I've got him allowing more than two earned runs today,

496
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:06,960
and I've got him in his career against these batters

497
00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:10,519
and ops of over eight sixty four. So I do

498
00:26:10,559 --> 00:26:13,400
not like Mitchell Parker Garbish. I like, but he's just

499
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:17,599
getting a little bit old. I think the Washington lineup

500
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:22,960
is pretty good. They're generally undervalued by the book right now.

501
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:26,400
Not in great current form. Neither are the Padres, but

502
00:26:26,519 --> 00:26:30,559
both bullpens below average. I would go either over or

503
00:26:30,559 --> 00:26:34,039
I would take San Diego Padres over in this one

504
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:38,000
because I don't like either starting pitcher in current form,

505
00:26:38,079 --> 00:26:40,160
and I don't really like either bullpen. I think the

506
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:44,319
bats will wake up here. Neither team has been cranking

507
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:46,359
it too well lately, but I think the bats will

508
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:48,519
wake up today, So I like the over in this one,

509
00:26:49,079 --> 00:26:51,039
either team total or game total.

510
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:55,079
Speaker 1: Dale asked, are the Tigers an underdog today?

511
00:26:56,839 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 3: Tigers, let's take a look. That's not one that I

512
00:26:59,039 --> 00:27:02,440
was isolating, but let me see the matchups. Probably for

513
00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:06,079
a good reason. Yeah, I don't really have see Montero's

514
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:10,480
going against Kumar Rocker and I don't really like either picture,

515
00:27:10,599 --> 00:27:14,839
but I have almost zero data on head to head

516
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:17,839
matchups for these pictures. Montero is actually four and one,

517
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:24,119
where Kumar Rockers three and four Rangers.

518
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:25,279
Speaker 1: Deserves to be a favorite over the Tigers, to be honest,

519
00:27:25,279 --> 00:27:27,200
but they're at home, so I get it. But Kumar

520
00:27:27,279 --> 00:27:29,200
Rocker is very hit or.

521
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:35,240
Speaker 3: Miss well he is. He's a strikeout guy, and he

522
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:38,920
likes strike people out and he's pretty good at it.

523
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,119
But his record's three and four. The Rangers are a

524
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:43,519
really good home team though they're twenty seven and nineteen,

525
00:27:43,759 --> 00:27:46,920
but the Tigers are a really good away team. I

526
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:48,799
think the Tigers are going to fade a little bit

527
00:27:48,839 --> 00:27:50,559
in the second half. That doesn't mean they're going to

528
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:54,000
lose today, but I would have to say Montero is

529
00:27:54,039 --> 00:27:57,920
a better pitcher than Rocker in my opinion. I'll probably

530
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:00,160
stay away from this game because you know, we're trying

531
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:02,920
to predict the future here, and the more X factors

532
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:06,400
you have means it's more difficult to predict the future.

533
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,599
So way too many X factors here, So I'm probably

534
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:10,960
gonna stay away from this game.

535
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:15,759
Speaker 1: Oh great show, Andrew says, thank you so much. Mets

536
00:28:15,759 --> 00:28:18,359
team's total. I think today is the David Right Day

537
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:19,680
where they retire his number.

538
00:28:21,319 --> 00:28:26,200
Speaker 3: Which team the Mets? Yeah, yeah, Hey, I just have

539
00:28:26,279 --> 00:28:29,599
to say any show with Ariel Epstein is a hit

540
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:30,960
as far as I'm concerned.

541
00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:33,279
Speaker 1: Oh, thank you. Even when I'm under the weather, I

542
00:28:33,319 --> 00:28:34,160
appreciate it.

543
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, You're always great, under the weather or not. So

544
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:41,079
let's take a look at the Mets here. What do

545
00:28:41,119 --> 00:28:41,359
we got?

546
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 1: I think, do you follow narratives? Because I'm pretty sure

547
00:28:44,279 --> 00:28:48,920
today is the David Wright retirement ceremony. So I'm curious if,

548
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,480
like I sometimes love to fade narratives, or I stay

549
00:28:52,519 --> 00:28:56,000
away just because it's like an emotional day. The Mets

550
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:58,240
players will want to play for David Right and the fans,

551
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:00,400
and it's going to be a packed house because everyone's

552
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:03,440
honoring David Wright and it's his whole weekend. It's just

553
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:07,000
like too much sometimes, and I hate backing a narrative.

554
00:29:08,599 --> 00:29:12,960
Speaker 3: Well, once the game starts, nobody's really thinking that it's

555
00:29:13,039 --> 00:29:16,359
David Right Day, so I really don't buy into those narratives.

556
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:21,079
And some of these players probably haven't even played with him,

557
00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:24,359
so they probably don't care. It's just kind of a

558
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:27,359
nuisance before the game that they can't just go out

559
00:29:27,359 --> 00:29:29,720
there and get started, probably for most of them. So

560
00:29:30,039 --> 00:29:33,000
I don't really buy into those narratives very much. I

561
00:29:33,279 --> 00:29:35,680
approach this the game by game day, but there is

562
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:37,759
something to be said if there's some kind of trend

563
00:29:37,759 --> 00:29:41,680
where there's a ceremony and the team loses, you know,

564
00:29:41,799 --> 00:29:44,559
sixty percent or something. If there's a trend of sixty percent,

565
00:29:44,599 --> 00:29:48,079
I might listen to it. But in general, many of

566
00:29:48,079 --> 00:29:50,279
these players didn't play with him. Many of these players

567
00:29:50,319 --> 00:29:52,640
don't care about him, and they're just kind of waiting

568
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:54,960
to get on the field, So I don't buy into

569
00:29:55,079 --> 00:29:58,680
the narrative here. Interesting fact about this game though, I

570
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:01,680
really like the Mets. Don't I don't know why, but

571
00:30:02,079 --> 00:30:04,799
Clay Holmes is walking way too many people, But I

572
00:30:04,839 --> 00:30:08,319
still have him ranked better than Nick Martinez and the

573
00:30:08,359 --> 00:30:11,200
Mets bullpen. I have them slightly better, and I have

574
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:13,079
see this is one of those games where I have

575
00:30:13,119 --> 00:30:17,160
the Mets ranked higher than the Reds in every category,

576
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:20,599
but they're only ranked higher by like one or two points,

577
00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:24,200
so it's it's like all Mets, but it's only all

578
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:27,720
Mets by like a small percent, So I'm not sure

579
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:29,640
if I'm going to go all in with the Mets

580
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:33,279
here because Clay Holmes walks way too many guys. The

581
00:30:33,319 --> 00:30:35,640
Mets are thirty three and fifteen at home, so that

582
00:30:35,759 --> 00:30:37,759
you can't ignore that, and the Reds have a losing

583
00:30:37,799 --> 00:30:40,799
record on the road. If anything, I would go Mets here,

584
00:30:40,839 --> 00:30:42,759
but I wouldn't go all in. And I haven't pulled

585
00:30:42,799 --> 00:30:45,480
the trigger for an official play yet.

586
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:49,319
Speaker 1: Okay, it's a no official play there. I'm the mets.

587
00:30:49,559 --> 00:30:54,480
Dale says he like reading. I'm reading with chat. I

588
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:57,599
want to make sure. Okay, here's Raymond Jones. Any thoughts

589
00:30:57,599 --> 00:31:00,359
on the White Sox and Angels both winning today or

590
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:04,000
taking to win either the first three or first five.

591
00:31:04,799 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 3: Oh my god. Wow, someone's really going into some serious

592
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:12,799
plus money props there, huh. Or a plus money parlays there, huh.

593
00:31:12,839 --> 00:31:15,200
I would not do that because it's just kind of

594
00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:17,400
like buying a lottery ticket. You're better off betting the

595
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:22,240
games separately. I do like the Angels today, but if

596
00:31:22,279 --> 00:31:24,440
you can get like plus one and a half or something,

597
00:31:24,559 --> 00:31:26,559
or even a plus two and a half and throw

598
00:31:26,599 --> 00:31:29,960
them in a parlay like that might be Okay. Let

599
00:31:30,039 --> 00:31:31,640
me take a look at the White Sox. What do

600
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:35,279
we got with the White Sox here, Yeah, find them,

601
00:31:35,359 --> 00:31:37,160
let me see hang on it' say, Oh, they're going

602
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:42,400
against the Pirates again. Howser. Howser's Howser's got great numbers

603
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:45,000
and he's a very underrated pitcher. He's got a one

604
00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:47,039
to five six CRA with a five to two record.

605
00:31:48,079 --> 00:31:52,279
Kind of concerning that they won yesterday, but I think

606
00:31:52,279 --> 00:31:53,759
Howser is going to have a good game here. You

607
00:31:53,799 --> 00:31:56,519
could take him if you really like plus money. Here's

608
00:31:56,519 --> 00:31:59,039
a good way to go. Take Howser to record a win,

609
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:02,440
because to record a win, you have to accomplish three things.

610
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:04,119
You have to go five innings, you have to be

611
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:06,759
winning when you come out of the game, and your

612
00:32:06,759 --> 00:32:08,960
bullpen has to hold for you. Now, the White Sox

613
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:13,799
bullpen not exactly the most reliable bullpen in Major League Baseball.

614
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:16,920
But I'm sure I haven't looked at the numbers right now,

615
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:19,960
but I'm sure you can get some really good plus

616
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:22,279
money if you take Howser to record a win. So

617
00:32:22,759 --> 00:32:24,519
if you really like plus money, that would be a

618
00:32:24,519 --> 00:32:26,559
decent way to go. I do like the White Sox

619
00:32:26,559 --> 00:32:29,400
and Angels both to win today, but I definitely would

620
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:32,519
not parlay them together, because what's the point. I mean,

621
00:32:32,839 --> 00:32:36,039
we're here to win money. You're gonna win more money

622
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:37,920
separating them in betting them separate.

623
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:41,960
Speaker 1: I am not a parlay person, so I don't care

624
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:44,440
how enticing it is. You're gonna be pissed off when

625
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:45,039
one loses.

626
00:32:45,319 --> 00:32:48,880
Speaker 3: That's just exactly I get annoyed, like when I'm on

627
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:51,440
the right side and I lose, which is why I

628
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:53,480
don't like to do minus one and a half. I'll

629
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:56,640
do minus ones because if my side wins, at least

630
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:58,279
I get a push if they win by one. But

631
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:02,079
there's nothing more annoying than having the right team and

632
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:04,880
they win by one and you lose your bed. There's

633
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:06,680
nothing more annoying. I can't stand it.

634
00:33:06,759 --> 00:33:09,799
Speaker 1: So Andrew Weidler wants to know if the Red Sox

635
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:11,720
Cubs could go under the total today.

636
00:33:12,759 --> 00:33:15,079
Speaker 3: Red Sox and Cubs. Let's see what we got here.

637
00:33:15,119 --> 00:33:23,920
We got Bayo and Imanaga. Let's see Cubs in Red Sox. Uh,

638
00:33:24,319 --> 00:33:27,480
Red Sox Bullpen is in really good form. Here. Let's

639
00:33:27,519 --> 00:33:32,319
see how Bao and e Monaga are doing. Yeah, both

640
00:33:32,359 --> 00:33:34,839
pictures are in really good form too. The problem is

641
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,799
we got two powerpacked lineups that are kind of on fire,

642
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:39,839
or at least they were on fire going into the

643
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:44,640
All Star break. Two good bullpens, two good starting pictures. I,

644
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:47,039
if anything, I would go under in this game. But

645
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:50,079
I wouldn't like to go under eight. If this is

646
00:33:50,119 --> 00:33:51,960
a nine or a nine and a half, yeah I

647
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:54,200
would go under. You can always alt things up a

648
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:57,240
little bit if you pay a little bit of money

649
00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:59,440
to alt it up. So yeah, I would alt this

650
00:33:59,519 --> 00:34:01,720
up to a nine. I ain't taken under, perhaps maybe

651
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:02,880
a nine and a half.

652
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 1: Anything else before I let you go on this Saturday.

653
00:34:08,519 --> 00:34:09,760
Now you gotta get it ready for your show.

654
00:34:10,559 --> 00:34:10,760
Speaker 2: Yeah.

655
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:13,239
Speaker 3: I got a ton of stuff. I got a four

656
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:16,679
percent play in Major League Baseball out today. Also, I

657
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:22,559
put together all of my picture projections, outs, strikeouts, hits, everything,

658
00:34:22,679 --> 00:34:25,280
and I make a PDF out of it, and that's

659
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:29,119
downloadable for free at my page at wager talk dot com.

660
00:34:29,519 --> 00:34:32,760
Uh and yeah, I'm doing a show right after this.

661
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:37,440
I am not as charming and good at hosting as

662
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:40,119
you are. But you know, I waddle through the water

663
00:34:40,199 --> 00:34:40,760
a little bit.

664
00:34:40,679 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 1: And make allay not how you say it.

665
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:47,840
Speaker 3: Well, you're good at both. I'm not. I'm like an

666
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:50,719
ugly duckling in the water, just trying to get through

667
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:55,800
the show or either way. But yeah, I got a

668
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:58,519
lot four percent play. Go grab that, Go download my

669
00:34:58,559 --> 00:35:02,199
picture props or my pitch your data for free right now.

670
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:06,639
I noticed you your prop, your prop queen Neon sign,

671
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:08,519
and look at look at what I got down here.

672
00:35:08,559 --> 00:35:10,440
I got a Tokyo brand and Neon signed.

673
00:35:10,559 --> 00:35:13,320
Speaker 1: Hey. Everyone needs a Neon.

674
00:35:13,039 --> 00:35:15,440
Speaker 3: Sign, everyone needs Thanks Ariel.

675
00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:20,559
Speaker 1: Thanks Tokyo Branded. Okay, we've got one more guest before

676
00:35:20,639 --> 00:35:25,119
we dive into a little bit of premiere lacrosse with Den.

677
00:35:25,159 --> 00:35:28,039
But before we get to that, let's get our feet

678
00:35:28,079 --> 00:35:30,559
wet a little bit with some college football. We are

679
00:35:31,199 --> 00:35:33,599
about a month away from Kelly and Vegas going to

680
00:35:33,599 --> 00:35:37,320
Ireland for Week zero, but we are also almost like

681
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:40,559
we're like five six weeks away from like the real

682
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:43,559
week one. Let's bring him on to talk about it.

683
00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:47,840
Jesse Schule joining the show. He actually like had a

684
00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:50,920
huge steak before twenty four ounces.

685
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:53,519
Speaker 5: You said, Yeah, I didn't get through the whole thing.

686
00:35:53,559 --> 00:35:56,599
I have a nice chunk left for after the show.

687
00:35:57,159 --> 00:36:00,519
Speaker 1: Oh, I am so jealous. You have inspired me. Staking

688
00:36:00,559 --> 00:36:04,079
eggs is what gets me through my life and my weekend. Jesse,

689
00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:08,119
I know that on August thirtieth, LSU Clemson Clemson laying

690
00:36:08,159 --> 00:36:11,320
three and a half total fifty six and a half. Obviously,

691
00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:13,679
eyeball is going to be all over this huge matchup.

692
00:36:14,519 --> 00:36:16,679
What's going on here? What are you seeing about these

693
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:17,599
two teams?

694
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:21,000
Speaker 5: This is a big game, probably the biggest game of

695
00:36:21,039 --> 00:36:25,840
Week one. Unfortunately for LSU fans, Brian Kelly doesn't do

696
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:28,559
so well in big games, and they probably don't like

697
00:36:28,639 --> 00:36:31,920
me reminding them of that. But Kelly's record in his

698
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:36,039
career against top ten teams six and twenty. He's two

699
00:36:36,079 --> 00:36:39,960
and four against top ten teams with LSU. I think

700
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:42,760
Brian Kelly's a decent coach when it comes to recruiting,

701
00:36:43,079 --> 00:36:45,840
building a team like a general manager, but when it

702
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:49,239
comes to calling plays a little bit questionable, especially when

703
00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:52,920
he's matched up against a great head coach like Dabo,

704
00:36:53,199 --> 00:36:56,960
who is nineteen and fifteen against top ten, two and

705
00:36:57,000 --> 00:37:01,679
two against Nick Saban. It's got a couple natties. Offensive

706
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:05,480
coordinator for Clemson, Garrett Riley, when he came over from TCU,

707
00:37:05,519 --> 00:37:09,360
everybody was expecting Clemson's offense to take right off. It

708
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:12,400
didn't happen right away, but it did happen last year.

709
00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:15,840
Club Nick throwing for thirty six hundred plus yards, thirty

710
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:20,280
six touchdowns, six interceptions. Club Nick is primed for a

711
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:25,519
huge season. Clemson's bringing everybody back there at home. And

712
00:37:25,559 --> 00:37:28,719
then you've got Kelly's mishaps in week one since he's

713
00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:32,719
joined LSU last year, twenty seven to twenty loss as

714
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:36,960
a favorite against USC, forty five twenty four loss FSU

715
00:37:37,039 --> 00:37:40,320
the year before, and twenty four to twenty three loss

716
00:37:40,599 --> 00:37:45,039
to FSU in his first season at LSU. In a

717
00:37:45,079 --> 00:37:49,239
matchup between two great teams but two coaches, it would

718
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:51,400
have set up for a mismatch in favor of Dabbo

719
00:37:51,679 --> 00:37:53,880
and Clemson in there at home. So I like Clemson

720
00:37:54,199 --> 00:37:54,840
in this game.

721
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:58,199
Speaker 1: Okay, Clemson, it is that. I know it was a

722
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:01,119
disappointing season last year. All on the year you hire

723
00:38:01,159 --> 00:38:01,719
on Clemson.

724
00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:05,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean they're bringing everybody back. I mean they

725
00:38:05,320 --> 00:38:09,400
won ten games, they were a playoff team, So I

726
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:13,039
think Clemson they're ready to take the next step. I

727
00:38:13,159 --> 00:38:15,360
like the way Dabo coaches. I know he's been under

728
00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:18,960
scrutiny in this new era of the transfer portal and

729
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:22,079
he's been a little bit resistant to that. But I'm

730
00:38:22,159 --> 00:38:25,199
kind of of that same era as Dabbo, and he's

731
00:38:25,199 --> 00:38:28,039
a guy that I'm cheering for, so certainly on the

732
00:38:28,119 --> 00:38:29,800
Clemson bandwagon this season.

733
00:38:30,519 --> 00:38:32,639
Speaker 1: Gotta put you on the spot because a while ago,

734
00:38:32,840 --> 00:38:36,639
Jack Fulk asked you, what are your thoughts on Illinois football?

735
00:38:36,679 --> 00:38:39,199
This year got a ceiling or a floor for them?

736
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:41,639
Speaker 5: Yeah, So when he said that, I looked at their

737
00:38:41,679 --> 00:38:45,880
schedule and they're another team bringing back almost everybody from

738
00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:50,039
last year. I like the coach. Only problem is they

739
00:38:50,039 --> 00:38:51,880
play in the Big Ten, so you know they're not

740
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:53,760
going to get an easy schedule. But I'm looking at

741
00:38:53,800 --> 00:38:56,559
their schedule, there's really only one game that you can

742
00:38:56,559 --> 00:38:59,159
see that they're probably not going to win. That's against

743
00:38:59,159 --> 00:39:02,599
Ohio State. So if you're gonna think about how good

744
00:39:02,639 --> 00:39:05,159
Illinois football is going to do this year, you got

745
00:39:05,199 --> 00:39:08,199
to think about the three opponents that sort of toss

746
00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:13,639
up games, Washington, Indiana, and the third one let me

747
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:19,239
have a peek here, Washington, Indiana, and USC. And I'm

748
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:21,920
not that high on USC. I'm kind of high on

749
00:39:22,079 --> 00:39:24,480
Washington and Indiana. But if they could win two of

750
00:39:24,519 --> 00:39:28,239
those three, they'll finish with ten wins. They've got a

751
00:39:28,280 --> 00:39:31,920
shot at the playoffs. I think Illinois will be a

752
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:33,599
competitive team in the Big Ten this year.

753
00:39:34,519 --> 00:39:37,800
Speaker 1: I know you're talking a lot about returners, but returning production,

754
00:39:38,599 --> 00:39:39,960
how overrated is it?

755
00:39:41,599 --> 00:39:43,800
Speaker 5: I do think it is a mistake to believe that

756
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:48,360
returning production will result in a successful season. If you're

757
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:52,400
bringing back an elite quarterback or an elite offensive line,

758
00:39:53,000 --> 00:39:56,840
if your coaching staff remains intact, that's a great thing.

759
00:39:57,039 --> 00:40:00,400
But if you're an average team that underperformed and you're

760
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:03,880
bringing everybody back, I don't think that is something to

761
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:06,239
be proud of. We can take a look at last

762
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:11,199
year's class of returning production. Virginia Tech was number one

763
00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:14,559
overall in returning production. They had a six and seven season,

764
00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:21,280
very disappointing. Oklahoma State, Virginia, and Northwestern all had losing records.

765
00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:24,480
They were all top ten in the country in returning production.

766
00:40:25,239 --> 00:40:28,519
Clemson this year tops the list the number one returning production.

767
00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:31,440
But you look at who they're bringing back. It's the

768
00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:35,599
third season for Garrett Riley as the offensive coordinator. It'll

769
00:40:35,599 --> 00:40:40,840
be Club Nick's second season with Garrett Riley. I think

770
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:44,360
they're primed for some success. The team they're bringing back,

771
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:47,800
the players they're bringing back the quarterback. Everything lines up

772
00:40:47,800 --> 00:40:51,119
for Clemson to be successful, but some teams to be

773
00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:54,079
wary of. I set it on this channel before Baylor.

774
00:40:55,159 --> 00:40:57,480
They rank eleventh in returning production. I think a lot

775
00:40:57,519 --> 00:41:00,760
of people are leaning too heavily into that. Last season

776
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:03,199
on a six game winning streak, but they beat bottom

777
00:41:03,199 --> 00:41:06,719
feeders of the Big Twelve. Their quarterback put up big numbers,

778
00:41:07,079 --> 00:41:10,000
but he didn't have a signature win over a decent

779
00:41:10,079 --> 00:41:13,599
team Cincinnati. They were one of the worst teams in

780
00:41:13,639 --> 00:41:16,039
the Big Twelve last year. So the guys they're bringing

781
00:41:16,079 --> 00:41:19,000
back I'm not impressed with. And Stanford, I mean, they're

782
00:41:19,039 --> 00:41:21,159
just a mess. They're just a plain old mess. So

783
00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:24,199
for those teams, returning production is not going to be

784
00:41:24,199 --> 00:41:25,320
significant in my opinion.

785
00:41:26,079 --> 00:41:28,280
Speaker 1: Why the Colorado Jersey today.

786
00:41:29,159 --> 00:41:32,440
Speaker 5: You haven't heard. Well, everybody in the chat knows. I've

787
00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:35,119
got a bit of a reputation for being a Colorado hater.

788
00:41:35,599 --> 00:41:39,199
I think that reputation is a little overblown. I have

789
00:41:39,599 --> 00:41:42,519
made some big bets against Colorado, and every time you

790
00:41:42,559 --> 00:41:45,320
do that, their fan base likes to attack you. And

791
00:41:45,519 --> 00:41:48,760
at one point they told me Colorado is gonna win

792
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:51,679
this game. But double digits, you fool, I said, well,

793
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:54,079
if they do, I'll get myself a jersey. And I

794
00:41:54,119 --> 00:41:55,239
got myself a jersey.

795
00:41:55,679 --> 00:41:57,519
Speaker 1: Oh wow. See, I'm glad I didn't get put in

796
00:41:57,519 --> 00:42:00,360
that position last year. That was the Guardians fan with me,

797
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:03,440
which is ironic because I had the Guardians to make

798
00:42:03,480 --> 00:42:06,719
the playoffs last year, which they did, and then I said, well,

799
00:42:06,719 --> 00:42:09,239
they're not going to go to the World Series. All

800
00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:11,440
the Guardians fens. I went to the Yankees Guardians game.

801
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:13,599
I'm on the field, the team's coming up to me.

802
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:17,000
We heard you on MLP Network that you don't think

803
00:42:17,000 --> 00:42:18,719
we're going to go to the World Series, and I'm like,

804
00:42:19,119 --> 00:42:22,760
you're not. Guess what they didn't. So everyone could shut

805
00:42:22,880 --> 00:42:25,679
up and leave us alone. We know we're talking about

806
00:42:25,679 --> 00:42:28,519
and if we don't, then we'll make sure to pay

807
00:42:28,559 --> 00:42:31,559
our debts and appreciate it. I appreciate Jesse.

808
00:42:31,679 --> 00:42:32,199
Speaker 4: What do you promote?

809
00:42:32,599 --> 00:42:34,719
Speaker 5: I'm not disappointed with the jersey. I'm happy with it.

810
00:42:35,199 --> 00:42:37,320
Speaker 1: I like it. I like it. What are you promoting today?

811
00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:40,559
Speaker 5: We do have a special at wager Talk right now,

812
00:42:40,599 --> 00:42:44,320
you can get the entire CFL season for me absolutely

813
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:48,519
free with a purchase of all access full season college

814
00:42:48,519 --> 00:42:51,119
and pro football. That's priced at seven hundred and seventy

815
00:42:51,119 --> 00:42:55,000
seven bucks. I had a fantastic NFL playoffs last year,

816
00:42:55,199 --> 00:42:57,760
and I'm the number one CFL handicapper at wager Talk

817
00:42:57,840 --> 00:42:59,760
since I joined in twenty twenty.

818
00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:03,440
Speaker 1: Jesse Schule, it was so great speaking to you on

819
00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:06,000
this Saturday. I am so jealous that you have that

820
00:43:06,079 --> 00:43:09,119
twenty four on stake waiting for you. Enjoy your Saturday, Jesse,

821
00:43:09,159 --> 00:43:12,360
and we'll talk to you again in football season. So

822
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:16,000
we've got to get to our last, but certainly not

823
00:43:16,119 --> 00:43:19,079
least part of the show because I'm repping the New

824
00:43:19,159 --> 00:43:21,679
York Outlas, who were on a massive hot street coming

825
00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:26,280
off a win against California Redwoods last night. Yesterday, Dan

826
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:31,679
and I were talking about a prop that didn't end

827
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:34,679
up cashing. We were kind of pissed because you know,

828
00:43:35,159 --> 00:43:40,280
when you get Connor Shellenberger at seven assists, a career

829
00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:43,159
high tied second most assists all time in a single game,

830
00:43:44,039 --> 00:43:46,880
but doesn't get two goals. Dan, what the hell?

831
00:43:47,199 --> 00:43:50,639
Speaker 2: Oh that was pretty brutal. I mean, every single player

832
00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:53,400
pretty much on the Atlas offense last night had a

833
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:55,800
hat trick, which is what we expected, which was why

834
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:58,639
we liked Connor Shellenberger, who had been scoring goals like

835
00:43:58,679 --> 00:44:02,559
crazy to go over his his goals and of course

836
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:05,679
he has a career night, but but doesn't net even

837
00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:08,880
a goal for us. So so sometimes it's like that,

838
00:44:09,039 --> 00:44:11,159
I mean early. You know, you can go to every

839
00:44:11,199 --> 00:44:14,400
single stat you can have the most solid handicap. And

840
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:17,440
that's why your bank roll management is just as important

841
00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:20,440
as your handicap, because even the ones that are slammed

842
00:44:20,519 --> 00:44:23,880
dunk incredible handicaps, they're gonna lose about half the time.

843
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:25,719
And that's that we we just got bit by that

844
00:44:25,800 --> 00:44:26,280
last night.

845
00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 1: Listen. I'm still repping the brand. Also, guys, those are sick.

846
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:34,800
It's awesome. Like Kelly's wearing like her normal sweatshirt and

847
00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:37,199
I was like, no, no, no, I've got like the

848
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:39,519
legit looking one, like I look like I got.

849
00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:41,719
Speaker 2: The I got the preppy ass vineyard vines.

850
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:43,840
Speaker 4: Actually, yeah, yeah, I have.

851
00:44:44,119 --> 00:44:46,039
Speaker 1: I have a pl T shirt which I probably should

852
00:44:46,039 --> 00:44:48,119
switch into because it's starting to get hot. But Marley

853
00:44:48,199 --> 00:44:50,239
the Dog had me up at five point thirty in

854
00:44:50,280 --> 00:44:53,639
the morning, so it was sweatshirt season. We do have

855
00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:56,159
a cross games tonight, and for people that don't know,

856
00:44:56,199 --> 00:45:00,000
these games happened pretty late, so well not today, but yeah,

857
00:45:00,039 --> 00:45:02,960
yesterday it was late Denver Outlaws Boston Cannons three pm

858
00:45:03,000 --> 00:45:05,280
Eastern and then the Water Dogs and the Whip Snakes

859
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:08,400
are at eight pm Eastern. Anything today, Dan.

860
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:10,679
Speaker 2: Yeah, So we'll start with the one that you and

861
00:45:10,719 --> 00:45:13,840
I stumbled upon this morning, and that's this guy that

862
00:45:14,599 --> 00:45:18,159
we have had a great read on, Jared Bernhardt. You

863
00:45:18,239 --> 00:45:20,239
might actually recognize the game because he played for the

864
00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:24,679
Atlanta Falcons for just a little brief stint there, and

865
00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:26,960
then he made his return back to lacrosse, which is,

866
00:45:27,159 --> 00:45:29,280
you know, clearly his best sport. He won the Heisman

867
00:45:29,360 --> 00:45:32,800
of Lacrosse, a to Wharton Trophy winner, and we've really

868
00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:36,039
been excited about this Denver team since he joined, simply

869
00:45:36,079 --> 00:45:39,679
because he's joining three other players on that team who

870
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:42,880
are to Wharton Trophy winners again the Heisman Trophy lacrosse.

871
00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:45,679
So they are just absolutely stacked. And since they've got

872
00:45:45,719 --> 00:45:48,119
their feet under him with Jared Bernhardt, they are on

873
00:45:48,159 --> 00:45:50,840
an absolute tear four straight wins that they've been able

874
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:53,639
to rattle off. They're looking great and a huge part

875
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:56,960
of what they're doing is what Jared Bernhardt is doing.

876
00:45:57,000 --> 00:46:00,400
And right now, looking over at the blue book, you're

877
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:03,119
seeing his point total at two and a half and

878
00:46:03,159 --> 00:46:05,840
it's plus one eighteen. We got bit on the ass

879
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:08,639
taking a plus money prop yesterday. Ariel, I don't think

880
00:46:08,679 --> 00:46:10,880
it happens back to back because I think what you're

881
00:46:10,920 --> 00:46:15,599
seeing is that FanDuel is waiting season long stats way

882
00:46:15,639 --> 00:46:18,599
too heavily in this number and not paying attention to

883
00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:22,199
maybe what happened in recent form, because in recent form

884
00:46:22,239 --> 00:46:24,159
he's gone over this number in three straight game. He's

885
00:46:24,159 --> 00:46:27,480
coming off a five point performance. And why is that

886
00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:30,280
he started poorly in his first two games Because it

887
00:46:30,280 --> 00:46:31,840
was the first time he played the cross in like

888
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:35,639
five years. So it reason being that you know, he

889
00:46:35,719 --> 00:46:37,880
finally has his legs under him and he's playing great.

890
00:46:38,000 --> 00:46:40,079
What Denver has done, he's a huge part of it.

891
00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:44,159
Boston has been an over team through and through, largely

892
00:46:44,199 --> 00:46:46,480
because they're giving up goals in bunches the same that

893
00:46:46,480 --> 00:46:49,119
they're scoring it. I expect today to be a shootout.

894
00:46:49,159 --> 00:46:52,400
If it's a shootout, a guy who's been constantly involved, Ariel,

895
00:46:52,440 --> 00:46:55,119
you and I both like this one. Jared Bernhardt of

896
00:46:55,159 --> 00:46:58,679
the Denver Outlaws. You can find this on FanDuel over

897
00:46:58,760 --> 00:47:02,079
two and a half points plus one eighteen as is

898
00:47:02,119 --> 00:47:04,199
the play that I was looking at. And then I

899
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:08,000
gave a client play to Andy Lang and his clients.

900
00:47:08,039 --> 00:47:13,639
So Andy has a whole team of handicappers that release cricket, golf,

901
00:47:13,880 --> 00:47:17,599
hockey MMA. I am the lacrosse branch of the the

902
00:47:17,599 --> 00:47:20,880
Andy Lang handicapping team. What do you think we got,

903
00:47:21,039 --> 00:47:24,039
like over over three thousand people watching live? Should we

904
00:47:24,039 --> 00:47:25,559
give them the client play for free?

905
00:47:25,639 --> 00:47:28,880
Speaker 1: What do you think they till the end of the show?

906
00:47:29,039 --> 00:47:33,440
Speaker 2: All right, Well, well Johnny Detroit is hopefully on vacation,

907
00:47:33,599 --> 00:47:35,360
so he doesn't know that we're giving this one out

908
00:47:35,360 --> 00:47:38,519
for free but paid client play for Andy Lang. We're

909
00:47:38,519 --> 00:47:42,239
looking at the dog tonight, not the water Dogs though,

910
00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:45,039
We're looking at the Maryland Whipsnakes getting the goal and

911
00:47:45,079 --> 00:47:47,719
a half. Ariel, I mean, you know from this is

912
00:47:47,719 --> 00:47:50,400
the first time you really, you know, dove in here

913
00:47:50,480 --> 00:47:53,559
on lacrosse. But you hopped in at a great time

914
00:47:53,559 --> 00:47:57,360
because underdogs it's like free money right now. And you know,

915
00:47:57,400 --> 00:47:59,119
I hate to say lock, I hate to say this.

916
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:03,239
Eighteen eight against the number are underdogs this year, just

917
00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:05,719
blindly betting them. If you told me I could go

918
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:10,280
on eighteen and eight run betting anything, sign me up yesterday, right.

919
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:13,760
So we're looking at the underdog here, not simply because

920
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:16,599
there's this great, you know, ats trend that they've been

921
00:48:16,639 --> 00:48:21,159
able to rack up here this entire season in PLLL,

922
00:48:21,639 --> 00:48:24,159
but this is a sneaky good one because sure, Maryland

923
00:48:24,159 --> 00:48:26,440
whip Snakes, they're sitting at the bottom of the standings.

924
00:48:26,480 --> 00:48:29,360
They're two and four straight up. But a large part

925
00:48:29,519 --> 00:48:31,760
of that eighteen and eight against the spread is what

926
00:48:31,800 --> 00:48:34,559
the w is what the whip Snakes are doing. They're

927
00:48:34,639 --> 00:48:37,760
four and two against the number. So, yes, underperforming as

928
00:48:37,760 --> 00:48:41,239
far as wins and losses are concerned. But good teams win,

929
00:48:41,480 --> 00:48:45,519
great teams cover, So I guess that begs to explain

930
00:48:45,599 --> 00:48:47,760
that Maryland might just be a great team four and

931
00:48:47,840 --> 00:48:51,079
two against the number in this matchup. I think the

932
00:48:51,119 --> 00:48:53,880
reason why you're seeing the water Dogs favored is because

933
00:48:53,880 --> 00:48:57,079
they've been playing well. Sure, but you know, these books

934
00:48:57,079 --> 00:49:00,239
also take into account what happens, you know, see and

935
00:49:00,239 --> 00:49:02,480
long for a lot of these teams are year over year.

936
00:49:02,960 --> 00:49:06,480
Philadelphia is seven and three against the number since twenty

937
00:49:06,559 --> 00:49:11,440
twenty against this Maryland Whipsnakes squad. However, only one of

938
00:49:11,519 --> 00:49:17,960
those covers Ariel came with Philadelphia sitting as favorites, so yeah,

939
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:20,719
they've covered seven against them. Only one of those seven

940
00:49:20,760 --> 00:49:24,679
has come with Maryland Whipsnakes as a favorite. So for me, Ariel,

941
00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:27,440
give me the dog plus one and a half around

942
00:49:27,480 --> 00:49:30,000
minus one eighteen. You can shop around and find that

943
00:49:30,159 --> 00:49:34,880
Maryland whip Snakes getting the goals against the Philadelphia Waterdogs.

944
00:49:35,039 --> 00:49:38,880
That is the client best bet play for Andy Lang

945
00:49:38,920 --> 00:49:41,320
and his clients over there. So so two plays for

946
00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:43,719
you here. Hopefully we can get a little two and

947
00:49:43,760 --> 00:49:45,000
oh sweep going for the folks.

948
00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:48,119
Speaker 1: My Maryland people are gonna love it. Listen, we lost yesterday.

949
00:49:48,760 --> 00:49:49,760
We don't lose two.

950
00:49:49,679 --> 00:49:51,039
Speaker 4: In a row. We don't.

951
00:49:51,280 --> 00:49:55,280
Speaker 1: We can't, No, no, we can't. So we've got two

952
00:49:55,280 --> 00:49:59,199
Premier Lacrosse games today, guys, Boston Canons, Denver Outlaws at three,

953
00:49:59,239 --> 00:50:01,840
water Dogs Whips at eight. Make sure to tune into

954
00:50:01,840 --> 00:50:05,559
Formie Lacrosse and always follow Dan Obratt Newby Talks because

955
00:50:06,079 --> 00:50:08,920
that's where you get your PLL action and right here

956
00:50:08,920 --> 00:50:11,639
at Wager Talk all the time. Dan, you're the best.

957
00:50:11,679 --> 00:50:13,920
Thanks for running the show. Thank you for all of

958
00:50:14,039 --> 00:50:17,239
you for tuning into the show on this Saturday putting

959
00:50:17,360 --> 00:50:20,079
up with me and my kind of low energy no voice,

960
00:50:20,079 --> 00:50:22,239
but I didn't have a coff attack. If you guys

961
00:50:22,280 --> 00:50:24,239
want to go to the prop Queen Sports YouTube page,

962
00:50:24,239 --> 00:50:26,960
you could go to the live section and you'll see

963
00:50:27,239 --> 00:50:30,119
about twelve minutes into the show when Steve Merrill saves

964
00:50:30,119 --> 00:50:32,360
my ass because he has to cover for me when

965
00:50:32,360 --> 00:50:34,039
I had a cop attack. So if you would really

966
00:50:34,079 --> 00:50:36,960
like to be entertained, because you're statistic and enjoy watching

967
00:50:37,000 --> 00:50:39,079
other people in pain, you could go to the prop

968
00:50:39,119 --> 00:50:42,639
Queen Sports YouTube page subscribe and you could find me

969
00:50:42,679 --> 00:50:45,280
having a cough tack. So I'm gonna go save my voice,

970
00:50:45,280 --> 00:50:47,400
and I'm gonna go write the prop queen dot com newsletter,

971
00:50:47,440 --> 00:50:49,039
which you could check out as well at the prop

972
00:50:49,119 --> 00:50:51,840
queen dot com. I send out the newsletter once on

973
00:50:51,880 --> 00:50:54,920
the weekends and then twice during the week if you're

974
00:50:54,920 --> 00:50:57,960
a premium subscriber, so go sign up because that's where

975
00:50:58,000 --> 00:51:01,039
I give you all my Major League Baseball props. But

976
00:51:01,119 --> 00:51:03,800
thanks everyone for tuning in today. Thank you Dan for

977
00:51:03,840 --> 00:51:08,920
running the show. Thank you to Tokyo, Brandon, Jesse, Yanni

978
00:51:09,000 --> 00:51:11,199
the Greek All for tuning in and coming in on

979
00:51:11,239 --> 00:51:14,400
the show. As a great guest Dan is a bad boy.

980
00:51:15,280 --> 00:51:17,559
Well he's married now, so he can't really be a

981
00:51:17,639 --> 00:51:21,880
bad oh. He's telling that bad boy great. On that note,

982
00:51:22,400 --> 00:51:25,159
I'm signing up. Have a great weekend everyone, Hope you

983
00:51:25,159 --> 00:51:31,719
have some winners.