1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,799
Speaker 1: But I do believe the market is going to finish

2
00:00:02,879 --> 00:00:06,799
up stronger probably you know, sixty six hundred at the

3
00:00:06,879 --> 00:00:08,759
end of the year, and I do. Going in the

4
00:00:08,839 --> 00:00:11,480
next year again, I'm very very bullish. When you see

5
00:00:11,919 --> 00:00:16,239
the Russell do as well as it has done just

6
00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:20,039
since April, that's really good indication of what's to come

7
00:00:20,079 --> 00:00:22,359
because that's the lifebread of America small business.

8
00:00:22,839 --> 00:00:25,160
Speaker 2: So going into next year.

9
00:00:25,399 --> 00:00:29,640
Speaker 1: Next year, actually we're seeing the smp be over seventy

10
00:00:29,679 --> 00:00:32,560
five hundred, so we're very very bullish on the markets

11
00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:33,240
in the economy.

12
00:00:33,439 --> 00:00:37,320
Speaker 3: You're listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network where you

13
00:00:37,359 --> 00:00:41,320
get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to

14
00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:45,520
thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival

15
00:00:45,560 --> 00:00:50,280
Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot

16
00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:54,640
com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival

17
00:00:54,679 --> 00:00:57,359
Network now more than ever.

18
00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:04,519
Speaker 4: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial

19
00:01:04,519 --> 00:01:08,200
Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Hey, we were

20
00:01:08,239 --> 00:01:13,400
back with Edward Sidell and you find Eddie of course

21
00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:17,560
at e g SI Financial dot com. Eddie, it's great

22
00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:19,640
to have you back on. So we got some numbers

23
00:01:19,879 --> 00:01:23,959
we got GDP numbers, tarriffs, trade, what's going on here?

24
00:01:24,359 --> 00:01:26,640
Speaker 1: Well, thanks for having me back, you know what, a

25
00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:29,640
lot of news and it's all heading in the right direction.

26
00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:32,159
Speaker 2: There's really nothing.

27
00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:36,400
Speaker 1: That has been unexpected except for one one very important thing,

28
00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:40,560
which is a pal speech in Jackson Hole, you know,

29
00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:43,680
indicating and and you know, floating out that trial balloon

30
00:01:43,719 --> 00:01:47,079
that they're going to lower rates. You know, we believe

31
00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:49,560
that he probably should have done it sooner, but I

32
00:01:49,599 --> 00:01:53,120
think there's so much economic pressure, not from the outside,

33
00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:54,920
but I think they finally really started looking at the

34
00:01:54,959 --> 00:01:58,079
numbers as well as the uh uh, the governors of

35
00:01:58,239 --> 00:02:01,319
the Fed uh and you started to see that with

36
00:02:01,760 --> 00:02:06,200
a lot of Fed governor's going against Powell and voting

37
00:02:06,239 --> 00:02:08,199
against and so yeah, I think they're.

38
00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:08,599
Speaker 2: Going to lower rate.

39
00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:11,000
Speaker 1: So it was his speech that was a little bit shocking.

40
00:02:11,039 --> 00:02:12,400
I thought it was going to be the other way.

41
00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:16,319
But with GDP numbers coming in, that was not shocking.

42
00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:19,680
We were expecting that because of the trade and balance

43
00:02:20,319 --> 00:02:23,039
and the reduction of the trade deficit, because of the tariffs.

44
00:02:24,479 --> 00:02:28,479
You know, the PPI numbers. I mean, honestly, I don't

45
00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:30,439
want to say that they're worthless, but you really can't

46
00:02:30,479 --> 00:02:34,000
depend on them because even since then Biden administration, they've

47
00:02:34,039 --> 00:02:38,840
been inaccurate. They've been updating and redoing those numbers, you know,

48
00:02:38,879 --> 00:02:42,439
a month over month, rerising those downwards. And you know

49
00:02:42,439 --> 00:02:45,759
we're seeing that even now. So you know, really just

50
00:02:45,879 --> 00:02:48,240
looking at the real data, economic data, we're headed in

51
00:02:48,319 --> 00:02:51,400
the right direction. So I'm very very bullishing in the economy,

52
00:02:51,439 --> 00:02:52,719
in the markets.

53
00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:55,280
Speaker 4: Really thinks. So, but what about those tariffs that we're

54
00:02:55,280 --> 00:02:58,879
going to throw the world to global depression? Smooth holly,

55
00:02:59,719 --> 00:03:03,400
and you know, remember the main and all that good stuff, right.

56
00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:06,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know what, the world did not come to

57
00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:09,719
an end, uh for for sure. And you know, you

58
00:03:09,759 --> 00:03:11,680
and I we actually talked about this earlier in the

59
00:03:11,719 --> 00:03:14,759
year and it was really you know, we talked about uh,

60
00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:18,240
you know, tariffs, uh you know, as you know, taxes

61
00:03:18,319 --> 00:03:22,199
versus tactics, and really it's that reciprocity.

62
00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:23,680
Speaker 2: It's it's nice to finally have.

63
00:03:23,719 --> 00:03:28,439
Speaker 1: A leader of America that can negotiate on on behalf

64
00:03:28,599 --> 00:03:32,680
of its citizens that it's populous to our benefit instead

65
00:03:32,719 --> 00:03:35,560
of to our detriment. So this is this is exciting

66
00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:36,599
stuff going forward.

67
00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:40,240
Speaker 2: Not to mention, I mean that the CBO you know

68
00:03:40,319 --> 00:03:40,759
how they are.

69
00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:43,919
Speaker 1: They're very hawkish on estimates, especially as it relates to

70
00:03:44,759 --> 00:03:48,280
revenues coming in. And for them to say they're expecting

71
00:03:48,439 --> 00:03:52,039
over three trillion dollars in revenues over the next ten years,

72
00:03:53,039 --> 00:03:56,639
you know, it's it's uh, these are very very exciting times.

73
00:03:56,759 --> 00:03:59,759
Not to mention, you know, all the private investment coming

74
00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:03,439
into the US as a result of these negotiations going forward,

75
00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:07,159
So companies are on board again. We're already starting to

76
00:04:07,159 --> 00:04:09,319
see the trade and balance as reflected in the GDP

77
00:04:09,479 --> 00:04:11,120
numbers that came out today.

78
00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:14,520
Speaker 4: So we're in the right direction, all right. So we're

79
00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:19,279
in the right direction. The terrorists didn't, didn't cause the

80
00:04:19,319 --> 00:04:22,319
world to end. We're still working out some things with

81
00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:24,399
China though, but it looks like the rest of the

82
00:04:24,399 --> 00:04:26,519
world's kind of falling into line, aren't they.

83
00:04:26,879 --> 00:04:27,560
Speaker 2: Absolutely?

84
00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:31,160
Speaker 1: And to your point, so you brought up China and

85
00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:36,680
you know, again negotiations and tactics. So Trump yesterday, what

86
00:04:36,759 --> 00:04:38,839
did he say? So he announced, you know, he would

87
00:04:38,879 --> 00:04:43,040
allow six hundred thousand visas for Chinese students to come

88
00:04:43,079 --> 00:04:45,240
into the US. I know there was a lot of

89
00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:47,160
backlash on it. But the first thing that came to

90
00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:50,439
my mind is he's negotiating. He's trying to get China

91
00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:52,959
to come to the table, and he can automatic. I mean,

92
00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:55,199
he can just as quickly as he said that, he

93
00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:57,360
can change his mind and cut those visas off. So

94
00:04:58,000 --> 00:04:59,920
he is trying to get China back to the table

95
00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:04,160
and get really what we want. So and I'm sure

96
00:05:04,199 --> 00:05:05,839
there's going to be a meeting in the mind somewhere

97
00:05:05,879 --> 00:05:08,759
in between. Right. That's when it's a good negotiation, when

98
00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:10,199
no one gets what they want.

99
00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:14,759
Speaker 4: You know, like China with an intellectual property theft is

100
00:05:14,959 --> 00:05:21,240
like war with canons. Right, yeah, absolutely absolutely they can.

101
00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:24,120
They really that's their business model. They're really going to

102
00:05:24,199 --> 00:05:28,600
change a business model just because Trump says no mos Yeah,

103
00:05:28,639 --> 00:05:30,040
exactly exactly.

104
00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:34,360
Speaker 1: And and they're playing the long game when they know

105
00:05:34,399 --> 00:05:36,199
that they only half to wait. You know, the reality

106
00:05:36,279 --> 00:05:38,279
is three and a half more years and then we

107
00:05:38,319 --> 00:05:40,959
have a new administration coming in. So they're biding our time,

108
00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:44,160
their time, and if we can get something in place

109
00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:47,439
between now and then, we can boost production on our

110
00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:52,560
side and within our borders of prescription meds and other things,

111
00:05:52,639 --> 00:05:56,000
and really become more of a manufacturing society than we

112
00:05:56,079 --> 00:05:58,360
are right now. Instead of just one hundred percent consumption.

113
00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:02,040
That's going to benefit us. And you know, and then

114
00:06:02,079 --> 00:06:06,240
again you know China, it's really going to give them

115
00:06:06,319 --> 00:06:09,560
pause and be willing to negotiate going for further after

116
00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:11,639
this administration is done.

117
00:06:12,199 --> 00:06:14,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, well we will see. I guess the proof of

118
00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:18,639
the pudding is in the tasting here. So you're seeing

119
00:06:18,759 --> 00:06:21,519
rate cuts. How much do you think rates are coming down?

120
00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:24,079
You know, I was listening today.

121
00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:28,680
Speaker 1: You heard some of the commentators pundits talk about a

122
00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:30,680
big rate cut of fifty basis points.

123
00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:31,360
Speaker 2: I don't see that.

124
00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:34,639
Speaker 1: You know, we see maybe a total of fifty basis

125
00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:38,959
points this year, once in September and maybe once again

126
00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:43,279
in November December, and that's it. We do believe going

127
00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:46,560
forward over the next twelve months, we'll see you know,

128
00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:48,839
one percent or maybe one and a quarter percent.

129
00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:50,839
Speaker 2: But that's about it.

130
00:06:51,319 --> 00:06:58,399
Speaker 4: Okay, Well, hey, every little bit helps, right Housing. What's

131
00:06:58,439 --> 00:06:59,439
your take on housing?

132
00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:02,639
Speaker 1: Well, you know, when when we're looking at at the

133
00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:08,360
debt as it relates to interest rates right in in

134
00:07:08,519 --> 00:07:12,399
housing debt and being making it more affordable. Really, what

135
00:07:12,439 --> 00:07:15,680
it's going to do is it's going to free some

136
00:07:15,759 --> 00:07:19,160
of the housing up because you have some of our

137
00:07:19,199 --> 00:07:22,120
clients they want to downsize, but it does not make

138
00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:25,879
sense for them to downsize and pay the same amount

139
00:07:26,279 --> 00:07:30,399
that they're paying now for a smaller house, because right

140
00:07:30,399 --> 00:07:32,720
now they're paying you know, maybe two and a quarter

141
00:07:32,759 --> 00:07:34,920
percent or two and a half percent, and and go

142
00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:37,279
as high as six and a half percent. So as

143
00:07:37,399 --> 00:07:40,879
rates come down, it's going to allow them to downsize

144
00:07:40,959 --> 00:07:43,439
and and free up some of this these uh, these

145
00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:47,000
other homes for first and second time home buyers, all

146
00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:50,399
the way across the board. So again, I think the

147
00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:54,399
housing problem is bigger than just interest rates. But that's

148
00:07:54,399 --> 00:07:55,040
a really good.

149
00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:58,160
Speaker 4: Start, all right, So, uh yeah, I don't think interest

150
00:07:58,199 --> 00:08:01,759
rates are enough to solve it because well a lot

151
00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:04,360
of it was caused by lower interest rates. People with

152
00:08:04,439 --> 00:08:07,519
three three and a half percent mortgages, they don't want

153
00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:09,680
to move because they're going to get a six six

154
00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:13,319
and a half percent mortgage, right, and that's that's a

155
00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:16,399
lot of money. So even if you want to downsize,

156
00:08:16,759 --> 00:08:20,920
you can't really afford to downsize unless you buy your

157
00:08:20,959 --> 00:08:22,319
place for cash somehow.

158
00:08:22,399 --> 00:08:26,879
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, you're absolutely right. I mean, it's fiscally irresponsible

159
00:08:26,959 --> 00:08:30,040
to you know, get house half your size and impay

160
00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:31,040
the same amount or more.

161
00:08:31,879 --> 00:08:35,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, so, so we got a lot of work to

162
00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:41,080
do there. And I haven't looked at the housing ETF,

163
00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:47,039
homebuilder ETF, and the homebuilder share prices. What have they

164
00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:47,919
been doing lately?

165
00:08:48,759 --> 00:08:52,320
Speaker 2: You know what? Honestly I haven't either. I do know that.

166
00:08:54,159 --> 00:08:56,600
Speaker 1: Housing sales have gone up just a little bit throughout

167
00:08:56,600 --> 00:08:58,799
the summer. We did have a down month in July,

168
00:09:00,039 --> 00:09:03,240
but you know, overall, as far as that ETF goes, honestly,

169
00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:04,440
I have not been tracking it.

170
00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:07,679
Speaker 4: Okay, well we got to start tracking it again because

171
00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:10,279
I have a feeling it's going to get important very quickly.

172
00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:15,679
Any partying comments here, what you think the economy is

173
00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:19,360
going to be doing and will we see a pickup

174
00:09:19,759 --> 00:09:20,679
in the fourth quarter?

175
00:09:21,279 --> 00:09:23,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we're going to see a little pullback

176
00:09:24,759 --> 00:09:29,519
between now and October. There's going to be some profit taking,

177
00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:32,799
which is justified, and I like that anytime you see

178
00:09:32,799 --> 00:09:35,960
you pull back, that's an opportunity. But I do believe

179
00:09:36,279 --> 00:09:39,799
the market is going to finish up stronger, probably you know,

180
00:09:39,919 --> 00:09:42,720
sixty six hundred at the end of the year, and

181
00:09:42,759 --> 00:09:45,480
I do going into next year again, I'm very very bullish.

182
00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:49,480
When you see the Russell do as well, as it

183
00:09:49,559 --> 00:09:54,159
has done just since April. That's really good indication of

184
00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:57,159
what's to come because that's the lifebread of America small business.

185
00:09:57,639 --> 00:09:59,919
Speaker 2: So going into the next year.

186
00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:04,480
Speaker 1: Next year, actually we're seeing the smp be over seventy

187
00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:07,360
five hundred. So we're very, very bullish on the markets

188
00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:08,080
in the economy.

189
00:10:08,279 --> 00:10:10,720
Speaker 4: All right, that's what we'd like to hear. The more

190
00:10:10,759 --> 00:10:14,080
bullish the better. Of course, they got any questions for

191
00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:17,399
Eddie or myself? What do you think GDP is going

192
00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:22,720
to be doing? Where are we heading? Precious metals prices

193
00:10:22,799 --> 00:10:23,279
going up?

194
00:10:23,399 --> 00:10:23,679
Speaker 1: Is that?

195
00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:26,639
Speaker 4: Is that the canary in the gold mine? What are

196
00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:31,480
your thoughts? Email address kl Atcarrie LUTs dot com. And

197
00:10:31,799 --> 00:10:35,159
of course if you want to find Eddie like we

198
00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:40,080
said e GSI Financial dot com and Eddie, we'll talk

199
00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:40,759
to you again soon.

200
00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:43,159
Speaker 2: Thanks great, Thanks Garry, I appreciate it.

201
00:10:43,279 --> 00:10:47,440
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network. Your

202
00:10:47,519 --> 00:10:51,320
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to

203
00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:57,759
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever.

204
00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:02,960
Speaker 4: Cruis