Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, Welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home
Speaker 1: for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward.
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Speaker 1: it's the day after the massive flash crash that we
Speaker 1: had yesterday, of course, and it was all triggered by
Speaker 1: President Trump announcing one hundred percent tariff on China. In
Speaker 1: addition to other things, the stock market and the crypto
Speaker 1: market all dumped, and of course, in yesterday's podcast we
Speaker 1: talked about, you know, letting the dust settle. I do
Speaker 1: believe we're still in a bull market because the macro
Speaker 1: support levels and structure is still intact. This is based
Speaker 1: on the data. If there was in validation, I would
Speaker 1: be here saying guys, it's over pack it up, right,
Speaker 1: And that would be very hard to do because I
Speaker 1: have skin in the game. I am my crypto portfolio.
Speaker 1: I have some stocks and I want to see them
Speaker 1: go higher, of course, and make profits. But we have
Speaker 1: to be realistic, you know, One of the things I
Speaker 1: highlight yesterdays is that Bitcoin wicked to that two hundred
Speaker 1: day moving average. You can see the green line on
Speaker 1: my screen, and I've often stated when we are above
Speaker 1: that two hundred day moving average, we are in a
Speaker 1: bull market. When we are below it, we are in
Speaker 1: a bear market. Now, time does play a factor because
Speaker 1: we've seen in this bullmarket, bitcoin has gone below the
Speaker 1: two hundred day moving average, but then it bounces right
Speaker 1: up right it recovers, because if it stays down there
Speaker 1: and keeps going down, that's a bear market. You can
Speaker 1: look at this on the stock market s and P
Speaker 1: five hundred as well. If you're below this moving average
Speaker 1: and you're in a down trend, it's bear market territory.
Speaker 1: But if you are above it and holding strong, it's
Speaker 1: bull market territory. So we're still above it, and the
Speaker 1: art assign the daily chart it is currently hitting I
Speaker 1: believe about let me move myself out of the way
Speaker 1: here at about thirty seven, so we know anything near thirty
Speaker 1: and below it is in the oversoul zone. So we're
Speaker 1: headed there. So we could see a little bit more
Speaker 1: downside for bitcoin as well as all coins before we
Speaker 1: bounce because markets are cyclical. We don't stay in the
Speaker 1: oversoul zone like we don't stay in the overbond zone
Speaker 1: for a long time. It's like a pendulum swinging back
Speaker 1: and forth. Now, on the monthly chart, if you look
Speaker 1: at the red candle from you know what happened yesterday, nothing, guys,
Speaker 1: it's not even registering in some major correction because it's
Speaker 1: really nothing. The severity of course with the leverage being flushed,
Speaker 1: I think that has hurt more people, you know, and
Speaker 1: a lot of people are crying and we're going to
Speaker 1: talk about leverage and so forth. But it's not even
Speaker 1: registering on the monthly because these things have happened in bullmarkets.
Speaker 1: And if you saw what happened earlier this year with
Speaker 1: the big tariff settle off, that was huge because it
Speaker 1: was that initial shock, right, a true blacks one, and
Speaker 1: this is kind of a pseudo blacks one event because
Speaker 1: we didn't see Trump announcing on a Friday, you know,
Speaker 1: after Morgan Stanley said their opening up crypto that he's
Speaker 1: a launch He's going to launch this against China, and
Speaker 1: the things are getting worse than all the YadA YadA, right,
Speaker 1: But on the monthly, guys, bulls are in control of
Speaker 1: the RSI, not overheated like the levels we've seen in
Speaker 1: the past. So the structure is still there, folks, and
Speaker 1: the fear and greed index is in the fear zone.
Speaker 1: So what we could see there's a couple of scenarios here,
Speaker 1: is that next week or the week after we start
Speaker 1: seeing a V shape recovering. But it could take longer.
Speaker 1: So I want to make sure you guys are prepared
Speaker 1: for multiple scenarios because as educated investors, you got to
Speaker 1: look at multiple scenarios and then look at which one
Speaker 1: has the higher probability of playing out. Because we don't
Speaker 1: have a crystal ball. This is a concept that's hard
Speaker 1: for many people. They need certainty, they need to know, oh,
Speaker 1: this is what exactly is going to happen, But no
Speaker 1: one can do that. We can only put out our
Speaker 1: thesis and give the different scenarios. And this is how
Speaker 1: people who are educated about markets and understand the ins
Speaker 1: and outs operate, guys. So I'm trying to share that
Speaker 1: educational aspect. That is something I had to learn because
Speaker 1: I didn't. I was like many people, you know, just
Speaker 1: moving around with the emotional roller coaster of the market.
Speaker 1: Now I look at the data and I leave my
Speaker 1: emotions to the door. So with the RSI for Bitcoin
Speaker 1: near that over soul zoned, if the fear and greed
Speaker 1: index in fear and the macrostructure is still intact, I
Speaker 1: expect the reversal. But if this recovery takes a little
Speaker 1: bit longer, maybe it goes out a month. Right, let's
Speaker 1: just say argue for argument's sake, it goes out a month.
Speaker 1: What does that mean for the blow off top? We
Speaker 1: could see that be pushed into Q one twenty twenty six,
Speaker 1: because the timeline keeps getting pushed back, just like it
Speaker 1: was pushed back based on the big tariff sell off
Speaker 1: that we saw at the beginning of the year. Right,
Speaker 1: we saw guys a rally into July and August, which
Speaker 1: we usually don't see in summer. It's the selling may
Speaker 1: go away, right, But we actually hit a new all
Speaker 1: time high in August. So you can see how the
Speaker 1: timeline has been adjusted because of a block swan event
Speaker 1: like the teriffs. So I hope you understand that, right.
Speaker 1: You have to take that into account. So would this
Speaker 1: additional tower delay and roadblock this could push us into
Speaker 1: Q one, So keep that in the back of your
Speaker 1: mind that this could be pushing to q on or
Speaker 1: the market quickly recovers. In November December, we see the
Speaker 1: blow off top. Those are my two scenarios how I'm
Speaker 1: planning because like I said, I have crypto, I have
Speaker 1: skin in the game. I'm looking to take profits. Right,
Speaker 1: many of you know that. So we got to be
Speaker 1: prepared for both scenarios. And we have to see how
Speaker 1: long this recovery takes. But it doesn't mean we're not
Speaker 1: in a bull market now, guys, you know we should
Speaker 1: have known this move was coming. Why remember when I
Speaker 1: shared on September twenty ninth that Jim Kramer posted a
Speaker 1: tweet saying by crypto, and then the same week he
Speaker 1: went on CB see Fast Money with Andrew Ross, Sorkin
Speaker 1: and so forth, And I said, he's usually not on
Speaker 1: those shows, right, he has his own show. He was
Speaker 1: on there talking about how crypto is great and so forth.
Speaker 1: We should have known because bitcoin has started its small
Speaker 1: move move upwards. And then after he said that the
Speaker 1: market pumped all the way to one twenty six. Well,
Speaker 1: if Kramer is bullish, you know you got to inverse him.
Speaker 1: And of course lo and behold massive dump right, It
Speaker 1: never fails inverse Kramer. Now, the silver lining the good
Speaker 1: news here is that he's been posting bearers stuff. I
Speaker 1: shared it in yesterday's podcast. So maybe the recovery is
Speaker 1: coming for the stock market in crypto sooner than expect
Speaker 1: it because he's so bearished, you know, saying all these things.
Speaker 1: So we should have known, guys, the warning sign was there.
Speaker 1: Even though the market rallied. We should have known. Wait
Speaker 1: a minute, don't trust this pump. Don't trust this rally
Speaker 1: because inverse Kramer was playing out here. Man, this guy
Speaker 1: doesn't miss I swear now you got you know, bigcoin
Speaker 1: and all coins all pulling back, and a lot of
Speaker 1: different analysts are highlighting on the charts that this once
Speaker 1: again doesn't break the macro structure, doesn't invalidate the bull market.
Speaker 1: In fact, some of it is actually very good with
Speaker 1: regards to read tests of support, and for example, crypto
Speaker 1: Wizard says, here's or there's the retests. Our bears heading
Speaker 1: for another trap from the bottom. I projected a breakout
Speaker 1: on eight followed by a retest, just like we saw
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty. Well, it's just retested whether the storm.
Speaker 1: It's not over yet. Macro investor Ralph Pale shared the
Speaker 1: total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin, etherorem and stable coins,
Speaker 1: and he says the total crypto market cap barely registered
Speaker 1: the wild moves yesterday. Now this is on the zoom
Speaker 1: that one week chart. The large wedge pattern remains fully
Speaker 1: intact and the larger move of an accelerated break of
Speaker 1: one trillion dollars still lies ahead as liquidity continues to
Speaker 1: flow into the markets to roll the debts. So you
Speaker 1: got to zoom out here, right, He's very much zoomed
Speaker 1: out here on the chart, because if you're looking at
Speaker 1: the hourly, the daily, and very you know, only within
Speaker 1: the past three months or so, you're not going to
Speaker 1: see good things. But when you zoom out, you see
Speaker 1: the macro structures still intacked. That's what I'm trying to
Speaker 1: share with you guys. So the charts are showing us,
Speaker 1: the global liquidity is showing us the bitcoin whale on
Speaker 1: chain data is showing us still in a bull market.
Speaker 1: And here's what legendary trader Peter Brandt had to say.
Speaker 1: Many of you may recall I had him on the
Speaker 1: podcast last year and he shares a lot of great
Speaker 1: chart analysis. The man who's been doing this since the seventies, right,
Speaker 1: trading commodities and much more. Now he's trading crypto. He says,
Speaker 1: a final few posts for the weekend, and I will
Speaker 1: leave you youngsters with your dreams. He shared charts for
Speaker 1: XRP and other assets and here's his notes. XRP just
Speaker 1: a minor reaction in the bigger theme of things. Again,
Speaker 1: a zoomed out macro chart. Here's what he's showing. He says,
Speaker 1: for Bitcoin Bowl still alive and well Xlm'm talking about Stellar,
Speaker 1: a bull waking from a nap. He says, Eth is
Speaker 1: ready to rock and roll. So he shared all the
Speaker 1: charts here, guys, all of it the macro view again,
Speaker 1: no invalidation of the structures. So this is not an
Speaker 1: emotional take, guys. This is just the data. If you
Speaker 1: go study the charts and look at the patterns, it's
Speaker 1: all there, right. What's interesting and this is a sign
Speaker 1: of things that come. Many of you may know this,
Speaker 1: but z cash, the privacy coin that has been pumping,
Speaker 1: and it held up. It didn't it almost didn't get
Speaker 1: affected by this pullback, and it's like this anomaly. But
Speaker 1: it's a sign, guys, because things like this don't happen
Speaker 1: in a bear market. Every when a bear market, everything's
Speaker 1: going down, right, nothing's pumping after a flash crash like
Speaker 1: it like this, right. So z cash, I think is
Speaker 1: kind of the rotational liquidity from B and B which
Speaker 1: has been going nuts. If you look at you know,
Speaker 1: z cash on the chart, even on the seven day,
Speaker 1: this thing didn't even register to pullback like we saw
Speaker 1: any other all coins. It's wild, man. Even if you
Speaker 1: look at it's weekly chart and so forth, it's crazy.
Speaker 1: So again, these little breadcrumbs are showing us bull market's
Speaker 1: still intact. Now. I shared some thoughts today which I
Speaker 1: think are very important, you know, a reminder for many
Speaker 1: of us who have been in the market, but also
Speaker 1: for the new people. It's important to know because you
Speaker 1: see a lot of people crying today because and it's
Speaker 1: not the spotholders, it is the leverage players. I keep
Speaker 1: telling you guys, don't use leverage. Buy the blood on
Speaker 1: the streets, buy the bear market bottoms in spot and hoddle,
Speaker 1: and then sell the blow off euphoric phase. That is
Speaker 1: the best way to make money in this market. Yes,
Speaker 1: you can swing trade, because swing trade, I've often told
Speaker 1: you guys, when you see swings right in the market
Speaker 1: based on the ebbs and flows, you're still using Spot
Speaker 1: and even if it doesn't work out the same way
Speaker 1: that you're thinking, you can still just hold that asset.
Speaker 1: You're not getting liquidated. So I said, here some perspective
Speaker 1: on this flash crash. If you didn't use leverage, you
Speaker 1: didn't get liquidated or lose your shirt. If you're holding
Speaker 1: SPOT positions and bought during the bear market lows and dips,
Speaker 1: your portfolio is up on the higher timeframes, but down
Speaker 1: in the short term. So obviously with yesterday's pull back,
Speaker 1: everybody portfolios down. But if you zoom out, you know,
Speaker 1: based on where your entry price was, you're up. I
Speaker 1: said here, when markets experience severe pullbacks and corrections like this,
Speaker 1: that's the time to buy. Many people make the mistake
Speaker 1: of buying into pumps or at the resistance levels, where
Speaker 1: you know they're not looking at the charts just seeing, oh,
Speaker 1: everything's pumping, let me go buy. That's the wrong time
Speaker 1: to buy now. If you're new to crypto, I want
Speaker 1: to caveat this and this is your first time coming in.
Speaker 1: I understand you may want to get a position before
Speaker 1: you miss out, but you have to understand if you're
Speaker 1: buying into greed and pumps, the likelihood that the market's
Speaker 1: going to roll over in the short term or even
Speaker 1: a macro top is there. So you have to figure
Speaker 1: out where are we in the cycle. So that's why
Speaker 1: it's very important to be a contrarian to what's happening
Speaker 1: in the mainstream and much more and buy when everybody's
Speaker 1: fearful and buying the dips like the flash crash. That
Speaker 1: is a gift. You have to look at it as
Speaker 1: a gift to be able to enter the market at
Speaker 1: these prices because we know the top is not in
Speaker 1: based on the data. So it's hard, but you have
Speaker 1: to unlearn the mainstream programming from the likes of Jim
Speaker 1: Kramer and CNBC Fast Money Right and things like that.
Speaker 1: You've got to be able to learn some of these
Speaker 1: market cycles and signals and data points and charts. You
Speaker 1: don't have to be a Wall Street expert. That's not
Speaker 1: what we're doing here. But we need to know enough
Speaker 1: so that we're not fooled and we don't become dumb money.
Speaker 1: We want to be smart. We want to be on
Speaker 1: the side of smart money. So you know I said,
Speaker 1: learn to buy when there's blood in the streets. Of course,
Speaker 1: always do your own research and only invest what you're
Speaker 1: willing to lose. I also added the following, let this
Speaker 1: flash crash be a reminder of the following. A bear
Speaker 1: market will come after this bull market tops. Markets are cyclical,
Speaker 1: and narratives such as utility institutions are here, buying is
Speaker 1: two zero two to two two or whatever number is
Speaker 1: out there are fed now, and this and that don't matter.
Speaker 1: They're just narratives. The game is liquidity. Markets follow global liquidity.
Speaker 1: You have to play the cycles by buying the blood
Speaker 1: on the streets and selling the EU four degree tops. So,
Speaker 1: time and time again, the people who are screaming utility
Speaker 1: and this and that narrative. Right when the market pulls
Speaker 1: back and everything pulls back due to different factors or
Speaker 1: cyclic cyclicality or quantitative tightening, and the FED and the
Speaker 1: essential banks, you know, sucking out the liquidity, everything corrects.
Speaker 1: People forget that and they get caught up in the
Speaker 1: narrative because the narrative is the shiny thing that makes
Speaker 1: you think it's gonna go up forever, right, But markets
Speaker 1: don't go up forever. They're cyclical. Now, if you're looking
Speaker 1: at a fifty year timeframe, of course it just looks
Speaker 1: like this incline. But we don't live by fifty year
Speaker 1: time frames, so many of us are on more short
Speaker 1: term three, four years, even one year, right, So we
Speaker 1: need to understand the cyclical pattern. Take our profits accordingly,
Speaker 1: buy the blood on the streets accordingly, and rinse and repeats. Right.
Speaker 1: So this is something that keep in mind, guys, So
Speaker 1: important to keep in mind. Now. I know there's the outliers,
Speaker 1: the people who are saying, hey, man, Tony, I'm holding
Speaker 1: for ten plus years. Yes, but you're an outlier. The
Speaker 1: majority of us, including myself, need to, you know, take
Speaker 1: some profits because we have we have life to live,
Speaker 1: we got family, we got debt to eliminate, we got
Speaker 1: to spend. Some of you want to buy a house,
Speaker 1: Some of you want to do upgrades to your house.
Speaker 1: I want to do upgrades in my house. Right, So
Speaker 1: it depends on your financial situation. But the majority, obviously,
Speaker 1: we have to ride the cyclical patterns. So don't get
Speaker 1: blinded by narratives. People sell you all types of fairy tales.
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Speaker 1: Now look at this news Galaxy Digital, that's Mike Novogratz's
Speaker 1: firm raises four hundred and sixty million to transform Texas
Speaker 1: bitcoin mine into an AI data center. So what we're
Speaker 1: seeing is that these bitcoin minors are now expanding to
Speaker 1: AI data centers to offer compute because I think that's
Speaker 1: a big business as well. So it's smart that they're
Speaker 1: doing that and diversifying their revenue. So interesting move here
Speaker 1: by Mike Novogratz. Let me give you some more details.
Speaker 1: So they secured that four hundred and sixty million dollars
Speaker 1: private investment from one of the world's largest asset managers
Speaker 1: to accelerate the transformation of its former bitcoin mining site
Speaker 1: in Texas into an AI data center. The deal involves
Speaker 1: the purchase of twelve point seven seven million Class A
Speaker 1: shares at thirty six dollars per share, with the proceeds
Speaker 1: earmarked for general corporate use and the expansion of its helios.
Speaker 1: Campos expected to deliver one hundred and thirty three megawatts
Speaker 1: of IT capacity. In early twenty twenty six, the company
Speaker 1: announced sobriety. So expect to see more bitcoin miners doing
Speaker 1: these things, guys, because AI, of course is another technology
Speaker 1: is running in parallel with blockchain, and they complement each other.
Speaker 1: And not to mention Robonic, even the solar energy movement,
Speaker 1: and then you've got space exploration. There's there's so much happening, guys.
Speaker 1: So very interesting news here. Look at this Trump mull's
Speaker 1: pardon of Binance founder Chang Peng Zau known as Cizi,
Speaker 1: amid concerns over optics. So at some point I feel
Speaker 1: like he's going to pardon Czi. Look, Trump is very transactional.
Speaker 1: We've seen him part in some people, some very controversial
Speaker 1: folks and some of who I don't agree with, but hey,
Speaker 1: it is what it is. So discussions with the White
Speaker 1: House are heating up concerning the possibility of President Trump
Speaker 1: partning Binance co founder cz In the wake of the report,
Speaker 1: the likelihood of it happening increased significantly on the prediction
Speaker 1: platform Calshi. So the prediction markets are saying it's going
Speaker 1: to happen. It looks like it will, but I think CZ.
Speaker 1: Look in the first place, I don't think CZ should
Speaker 1: have went to jail. Look, there was the wild wild
Speaker 1: West of the crypto days, and they should they have
Speaker 1: fined binance. Sure, and they did, right, I mean the
Speaker 1: CFTC find them and so forth. I don't think Caz
Speaker 1: had to go to jail. I think he went to
Speaker 1: jail for like thirty days though. And I think this
Speaker 1: is one of those optics things like we need to
Speaker 1: show these that you know, crypto must have Buie by
Speaker 1: the rolls go to jail for thirty days CZ and
Speaker 1: that type of thing. Right, But come on, right, So
Speaker 1: let's see, let's see what happens here. Final news item
Speaker 1: here Judy Shelton, who's a monetary economist, and I believe
Speaker 1: she worked with the first Trump administration, maybe even the
Speaker 1: Biden administration, but she was recently interviewed and she says
Speaker 1: that she envisions a gold backed stable coin called solidus.
Speaker 1: If I'm saying that right, a modern digital currency partially
Speaker 1: backed by gold convertible treasury, a nod to the ancient
Speaker 1: Roman coin that stood for strength and trust. This idea
Speaker 1: could fuse blockchain transparency with sound money integrity. Imagine a
Speaker 1: US issue. You digital dollar tied to gold, not by
Speaker 1: decree but by convertibility, restoring faith in money, red harnessing
Speaker 1: technology to enable faster borderalless transactions. Yesterday's podcast, I told
Speaker 1: you guys about massive amounts of countries, the big ones
Speaker 1: like US, UK and much more. We're working on a
Speaker 1: staple coin that is pooled together based on the G
Speaker 1: seven countries' currencies. So what we've seen over the past
Speaker 1: five years or so is central banks have been hoarding gold.
Speaker 1: So what Judy's highlighting here feels like the setup is there, right,
Speaker 1: and notice she said it will be partially backed by gold.
Speaker 1: So I think they will of course pool their currencies together,
Speaker 1: use gold, maybe crypto bitcoin, right, we'll see what they use.
Speaker 1: But the a seated direction things are heading in the
Speaker 1: use of blockchain technology. There's people who say this is
Speaker 1: all a scam. They don't realize what the hell is happening.
Speaker 1: But that's the nature of markets. They will be the laggards,
Speaker 1: would they would be the late comers, and they will
Speaker 1: miss out on the gains and the opportunity. Right, So
Speaker 1: this is why you want to educate yourself, stay up
Speaker 1: to date with what's happening because there's a huge opportunity here.
Speaker 1: But the government's guys, maybe this solves the fiat problem.
Speaker 1: I don't know, but maybe does you know where we
Speaker 1: go back to a hard money standard and if currencies
Speaker 1: are on the blockchain, you know, governments, I think they
Speaker 1: will have to print, so to speak, right, issue more
Speaker 1: of the stable coins or the digital currency, but they
Speaker 1: can easily burn it, and they can be very surgical
Speaker 1: with it. So if a certain section of the economy
Speaker 1: needs or has issues, they can maybe program the digital
Speaker 1: currency to do certain things, but they don't have to
Speaker 1: print as much, you know, kind of blanket spread liquidity
Speaker 1: all over the place, which causes inflation in the basement, right,
Speaker 1: But maybe they're a bit more surgical with it, and
Speaker 1: maybe when things are getting overheated, they can easily withdraw
Speaker 1: that liquidity and they don't have to do quantitative tightening
Speaker 1: from a macro standpoint. But once again, surgical. Okay, this
Speaker 1: state or this region is seeing high inflation, let's start
Speaker 1: sucking out liquidity there. I'm just spitballing, right. The things
Speaker 1: that they can do and control and see real time
Speaker 1: will happen because of blockchain, right, So let's see where
Speaker 1: this all goes. It's very interesting, very fascinating what's happening.
Speaker 1: And this is why we want to look at not
Speaker 1: only what Wall Street is doing, but the governments, what
Speaker 1: the major financial institutions are doing, what entrepreneurs and innovators
Speaker 1: are building. This way we get a full view of
Speaker 1: the market. But clearly, blockchain tech guys, like I've been saying,
Speaker 1: will power the economies, the markets, and the governments. That's
Speaker 1: the future. Your digital identity on the blockchain, you're banking,
Speaker 1: your data, and much more. It's all going to be
Speaker 1: power by blockchain folks. If you appreciate the content, please
Speaker 1: please be sure to subscribe to my free email newsletter.
Speaker 1: It is one hundred percent free. I will be putting
Speaker 1: out a write up tomorrow. I held off on the
Speaker 1: write up today because I wanted to see how to
Speaker 1: dust settle with the market, so I give you guys
Speaker 1: a decent analysis. So I will be putting out the
Speaker 1: write up tomorrow, So make sure you are subscribed. It's free,
Speaker 1: doesn't cost you anything, and I only put it out
Speaker 1: once per week so you don't get spammed and that
Speaker 1: type of thing. Also check out my book on Amazon
Speaker 1: is available in paperback in digital and my course at
Speaker 1: Mycrypto course dot com. Folks, thank you so much for
Speaker 1: watching and listening. I appreciate you all, and I'll talk
Speaker 1: to you all later