WEBVTT 1 00:00:31.879 --> 00:00:34.679 Welcome to mid Rats with sal from Commander Salamander an 2 00:00:34.759 --> 00:00:38.039 Eagle one from Eagle Speak at Seer Shore your home 3 00:00:38.079 --> 00:00:41.399 for a discussion of national security issues and all things maritime. 4 00:00:42.479 --> 00:00:45.359 And good day everybody. Glad to have you on board, 5 00:00:45.479 --> 00:00:48.119 especially those who have rearranged your schedule to join with 6 00:00:48.200 --> 00:00:50.719 us live. And for those that are with us live, 7 00:00:50.719 --> 00:00:53.000 I'd like to extend an invitation, though it's not required, 8 00:00:53.560 --> 00:00:55.920 on the show page, you will find a link to 9 00:00:55.960 --> 00:00:58.880 the chat room. We'll monitor that during the course of 10 00:00:58.920 --> 00:01:00.920 the show. And if you have some observation, if you'd 11 00:01:00.960 --> 00:01:03.159 like to share with everybody else, or even a question 12 00:01:03.600 --> 00:01:05.280 you would like for us to address to our guest 13 00:01:05.359 --> 00:01:07.560 during the course of the next hour, that's the perfect 14 00:01:07.560 --> 00:01:09.640 place to do it. We'll be monitored during the course 15 00:01:09.680 --> 00:01:12.239 of the show and we'll bring in your good ideas 16 00:01:12.280 --> 00:01:14.719 if they apply, and it'll all be part of the 17 00:01:14.760 --> 00:01:16.680 stew that we're going to be cooking today. And if 18 00:01:16.680 --> 00:01:19.359 you've got to run off and take care of life 19 00:01:19.599 --> 00:01:21.760 and you want to wonder what you have missed, if 20 00:01:21.799 --> 00:01:23.879 you don't already, you can go ahead and head on 21 00:01:23.959 --> 00:01:28.599 over to iTunes, spreakers, Spotify, wherever you aggregate your podcast. 22 00:01:28.680 --> 00:01:31.439 You can find mid Rats there and go ahead and subscribe. 23 00:01:31.480 --> 00:01:33.959 Won't cost you a penny and we'll be waiting there 24 00:01:34.000 --> 00:01:37.400 for you at a time of your convenience. And for 25 00:01:37.480 --> 00:01:40.799 today's show, it's we worked on scheduling this for a 26 00:01:40.840 --> 00:01:44.200 few weeks, but we'd be hard pressed to have found 27 00:01:44.640 --> 00:01:48.560 a better time to come on to talk about if 28 00:01:48.599 --> 00:01:52.760 we're looking for a firm and lasting piece cease fire, 29 00:01:53.519 --> 00:01:57.879 something involving the Russio Ukrainian conflict that started over three 30 00:01:57.959 --> 00:02:01.000 years ago this weekend, that's been part of the shop 31 00:02:01.040 --> 00:02:05.159 top shelf of the news. Is everybody after that meeting 32 00:02:05.239 --> 00:02:07.560 in the Oval Office at the end of last week, 33 00:02:07.719 --> 00:02:10.560 what are we looking at going forward? Can we find 34 00:02:10.680 --> 00:02:12.960 a way to get the parties to the peace table? 35 00:02:13.000 --> 00:02:15.800 What would that piece look like? Who will be involved 36 00:02:15.840 --> 00:02:19.280 in it? Or is the slog just going to continue 37 00:02:19.280 --> 00:02:23.240 going on? And the best way to get that piece? 38 00:02:23.520 --> 00:02:27.560 Is it the West? Is it bilateral? Is it something different? 39 00:02:28.080 --> 00:02:31.400 And how do you have that piece ongoing? And is 40 00:02:31.400 --> 00:02:34.960 that ultimate solution where it is with most nations internally 41 00:02:35.000 --> 00:02:38.879 to Ukraine. And we're going to pick up that topic 42 00:02:39.000 --> 00:02:42.240 with a great reference point with our guest today. It's 43 00:02:42.680 --> 00:02:47.039 her most recent article is titled Ukraine must guarantee its 44 00:02:47.159 --> 00:02:50.879 own security and coming back to mid Rats is going 45 00:02:51.000 --> 00:02:53.680 to be Emma Ashford, Emma, welcome back to. 46 00:02:53.599 --> 00:02:55.520 Mid Rats' so much for having me. 47 00:02:56.400 --> 00:02:58.680 It's great to have you on board. I forgot to 48 00:02:58.719 --> 00:03:01.759 mention that can congratulations later on this year. You also 49 00:03:01.800 --> 00:03:03.560 have a book that's going to be coming out first 50 00:03:03.599 --> 00:03:08.000 amongst equal US Foreign policy for a multi polar world. 51 00:03:08.159 --> 00:03:11.400 Hopefully events won't catch up with you too much. But 52 00:03:11.599 --> 00:03:13.840 I mean your article and we'll put a link to 53 00:03:13.879 --> 00:03:17.759 it in the show page. It came out on the 54 00:03:17.759 --> 00:03:21.240 eighteenth of February. But I think what's really nice about it, 55 00:03:21.280 --> 00:03:23.680 and I know it makes you happy, is, in spite 56 00:03:23.800 --> 00:03:26.719 of everything that's gone on in the last forty eight 57 00:03:26.759 --> 00:03:30.840 hours at the Paul Mill level involving the Ukraine conflict, 58 00:03:31.199 --> 00:03:33.800 a lot of the issues and the points and options 59 00:03:33.800 --> 00:03:36.280 that you bring up in your article, they still are 60 00:03:36.319 --> 00:03:39.759 applicable now is today you wrote them, and I would 61 00:03:39.759 --> 00:03:42.639 be remissed to our guest and everybody else if I 62 00:03:42.680 --> 00:03:46.759 didn't ask you. Here we are on late Sunday afternoon, 63 00:03:46.919 --> 00:03:51.919 forty eight hours after that Zelenski dvance and President Trump 64 00:03:51.960 --> 00:03:54.400 meaning the Oval Office all the back and forth that 65 00:03:54.439 --> 00:03:56.960 we've seen in the late breaking news. How do things 66 00:03:57.000 --> 00:03:58.039 look from your perch? 67 00:03:59.439 --> 00:04:04.120 Yeah, so, I mean it has been another just really exciting, 68 00:04:04.360 --> 00:04:09.680 unexpected in the Ukraine crisis. I appreciate what you're saying 69 00:04:09.680 --> 00:04:12.039 about the article that it still holds true. The thing 70 00:04:12.159 --> 00:04:15.639 is that doesn't actually make me happy, because, to be honest, 71 00:04:15.800 --> 00:04:19.360 I've written similar things going almost all the way back 72 00:04:19.399 --> 00:04:21.639 to the start of the war, and other folks have too. 73 00:04:21.839 --> 00:04:22.079 You know. 74 00:04:22.360 --> 00:04:24.639 I wrote an article last year for the Stimson Center 75 00:04:24.639 --> 00:04:27.160 of the think tank where I work challenging sort of 76 00:04:27.199 --> 00:04:30.639 some of the big assumptions or talking points about the 77 00:04:30.680 --> 00:04:34.199 war in Ukraine that still applies too. I think we 78 00:04:34.240 --> 00:04:37.279 are still in a place in this war where we 79 00:04:37.360 --> 00:04:40.279 are having many of the same arguments we've been having 80 00:04:40.639 --> 00:04:43.639 at least back to February twenty twenty two, and sometimes 81 00:04:43.639 --> 00:04:46.800 even further, things like security guarantees for Ukraine, things like 82 00:04:46.879 --> 00:04:50.240 NATO membership, things like US spending in Ukraine and where 83 00:04:50.240 --> 00:04:53.000 it actually goes and whether it's worth it. And you know, 84 00:04:53.120 --> 00:04:56.199 so we are still having these debates and they're really 85 00:04:56.240 --> 00:04:59.439 not new. What's new is the context in which we're 86 00:04:59.439 --> 00:05:01.720 having them. I think That's where the last forty eight 87 00:05:01.800 --> 00:05:04.079 hours becomes really interesting. 88 00:05:04.160 --> 00:05:04.279 Right. 89 00:05:04.319 --> 00:05:07.199 So I'm sure everybody has by now seen that clip 90 00:05:07.480 --> 00:05:11.800 of Zolensky Trump Vance in the Oval office. Violensky came over. 91 00:05:11.839 --> 00:05:14.360 He was meant to be signing these minerals deal that 92 00:05:14.439 --> 00:05:17.360 the Trump administration that hammered out. We can talk a 93 00:05:17.360 --> 00:05:20.000 little more about that deal if you want. It's really 94 00:05:20.160 --> 00:05:22.040 was kind of a nothing burger. So the fact that 95 00:05:22.120 --> 00:05:25.319 didn't get signed is not all that important. But we 96 00:05:25.480 --> 00:05:29.680 ended up in this spat right where Zolensky very much 97 00:05:29.800 --> 00:05:33.600 kind of stood his ground and argued back with Trump, 98 00:05:33.680 --> 00:05:36.160 with Vance, with others in the room in a way 99 00:05:36.199 --> 00:05:38.399 that foreign leaders I think have learned over time it's 100 00:05:38.399 --> 00:05:41.480 not particularly wise to do with Donald Trump, and ends 101 00:05:41.560 --> 00:05:44.720 up getting in this big argument with the Vice president 102 00:05:45.040 --> 00:05:48.319 and after that meeting ends up leaving before the follow 103 00:05:48.399 --> 00:05:51.399 up press conference before signing it. It was it was 104 00:05:51.439 --> 00:05:54.759 a huge spat and Zelensky then went off to London. 105 00:05:55.560 --> 00:05:58.560 I believe he had tea with the King today. But 106 00:05:58.839 --> 00:06:01.680 also you know, the British government's been hosting an emergency 107 00:06:01.680 --> 00:06:04.879 summit of European leaders, trying to get them together to 108 00:06:04.920 --> 00:06:08.040 talk about how they can do this potentially without the US, 109 00:06:09.160 --> 00:06:10.879 but I think you know, again, I'll make sort of 110 00:06:10.879 --> 00:06:12.839 a point. I'm sure we're going to pull on more later, 111 00:06:12.959 --> 00:06:15.600 which is I think it's really notable that what came 112 00:06:15.639 --> 00:06:18.839 out of that, you know, Vice President sorry, Prime Minister 113 00:06:18.959 --> 00:06:22.639 Kiir Starmer said basically that Ukraine kind of needs to 114 00:06:22.639 --> 00:06:24.839 get on board with peace. We need to figure out 115 00:06:24.839 --> 00:06:27.079 the details, but you know, we've got to work with 116 00:06:27.120 --> 00:06:29.759 the Americans on this. I'm not sure that was necessarily 117 00:06:29.759 --> 00:06:32.560 for the Ukrainians. We're hoping that this would come down. So, 118 00:06:32.920 --> 00:06:36.319 as I say, very busy weekend, happy to talk about 119 00:06:36.360 --> 00:06:39.199 whatever from that sort of giant pool of things you're 120 00:06:39.240 --> 00:06:39.920 interested in. 121 00:06:41.319 --> 00:06:43.519 Well, one of the I guess I would like to 122 00:06:43.560 --> 00:06:47.040 start at the very back end of this thing. When 123 00:06:47.439 --> 00:06:53.199 Ukraine became independent and had nuclear stockpile, we signed an 124 00:06:53.240 --> 00:06:56.920 agreement with the Russians and the Ukrainians, the Budapest Memorandum. 125 00:06:56.959 --> 00:07:00.639 Could you kind of talk about what happened to that 126 00:07:00.800 --> 00:07:03.480 and is that one of the reasons the Ukrainians tend 127 00:07:03.480 --> 00:07:06.120 to feel entitled to some kind of secure I mean, 128 00:07:06.160 --> 00:07:09.519 it was a security promise more than a security guarantee, 129 00:07:09.519 --> 00:07:12.720 but talk about what the effect of that agreement. As 130 00:07:12.759 --> 00:07:15.040 on the Ukrainians, Yeah. 131 00:07:14.759 --> 00:07:17.560 I mean so much of this, so much of the 132 00:07:17.639 --> 00:07:20.720 issues surrounding this war, the war in Georgia in two 133 00:07:20.759 --> 00:07:24.680 thousand and eight, the issues of NATO expansion and Russia's 134 00:07:24.759 --> 00:07:28.279 unhappiness about that. This all goes back to the immediate 135 00:07:28.319 --> 00:07:32.120 aftermath of the Soviet collapse. And in the case of Ukraine, 136 00:07:32.480 --> 00:07:34.759 Ukraine was not a member of the Warsaw Pact. It 137 00:07:34.759 --> 00:07:37.240 was an actual integral part of the Soviet Union, and 138 00:07:37.519 --> 00:07:40.720 it fell into this very unique, strange category along with 139 00:07:40.839 --> 00:07:44.480 Kazakhstan and a few others where it was not Russia, 140 00:07:44.639 --> 00:07:47.639 but nonetheless it had nuclear weapons. They were still under 141 00:07:47.639 --> 00:07:51.639 the control of the Soviets in Moscow. The Ukrainians couldn't 142 00:07:51.600 --> 00:07:53.800 have used them. But this is actually one of these 143 00:07:53.839 --> 00:07:56.839 successes of early US diplomacy in the post Cold War period, 144 00:07:56.920 --> 00:08:01.120 is negotiating with these countries to remove these weapons, send 145 00:08:01.160 --> 00:08:04.040 them back to Russia proper, and so we don't have 146 00:08:04.120 --> 00:08:06.759 like three or four more nuclear states on the world stage. 147 00:08:07.120 --> 00:08:09.079 The document signed in the case of Ukraine is this 148 00:08:09.160 --> 00:08:14.000 Budapest Memorandum, and in it the countries that signed, including 149 00:08:14.000 --> 00:08:18.079 the US and including Russia, promised that they will assure 150 00:08:18.600 --> 00:08:23.319 Ukraine's future security, and there's been some back and forth 151 00:08:23.360 --> 00:08:26.839 about what this actually meant. There's nothing concrete written in 152 00:08:26.879 --> 00:08:29.720 the document. It's notable that in Ukrainian the word for 153 00:08:29.759 --> 00:08:32.000 a shurer and guarantee are very similar, they might even 154 00:08:32.039 --> 00:08:34.600 be the same, So there's some jubaiety here. But if 155 00:08:34.639 --> 00:08:37.360 you listen to the diplomats who actually negotiated this thing talking, 156 00:08:37.559 --> 00:08:41.559 they will tell you there was no guarantee to provide 157 00:08:41.799 --> 00:08:44.799 truth in case of an invasion of Ukraine in the future. 158 00:08:44.960 --> 00:08:47.759 So that is kind of the background here, and you 159 00:08:47.799 --> 00:08:51.240 can see why today the Ukrainians are very wary of 160 00:08:51.279 --> 00:08:55.000 anything called the guarantee that doesn't actually include a concrete, 161 00:08:55.320 --> 00:08:58.039 explicit guarantee, because they have this in the back of 162 00:08:58.080 --> 00:08:58.600 their minds. 163 00:09:00.039 --> 00:09:02.159 And I think that's and I'm glad that I actually 164 00:09:02.159 --> 00:09:03.720 had on my list of things that I wanted to 165 00:09:03.759 --> 00:09:06.440 ask for you to comment a bit about the nineteen 166 00:09:06.519 --> 00:09:11.080 ninety four Budapest Miner Memorandum, because it's there are a 167 00:09:11.120 --> 00:09:13.840 lot of people here, you know, we're in the fourth 168 00:09:13.919 --> 00:09:16.720 year of the war, who still aren't familiar with it. 169 00:09:16.759 --> 00:09:19.519 And I think you hit the high points perfectly because 170 00:09:19.519 --> 00:09:22.240 a lot of the same people that are in high 171 00:09:22.240 --> 00:09:26.399 warrible about how they want to commit people to do things, 172 00:09:26.519 --> 00:09:30.480 are the same people who are constantly hitting on this, 173 00:09:30.799 --> 00:09:35.600 you know, rules based international order, okay, nineteen ninety four 174 00:09:35.600 --> 00:09:40.440 of the Budapest Miner Memorandum. Twenty years later Russia in essence, 175 00:09:40.480 --> 00:09:44.000 I think if they called the world bluff and stepped 176 00:09:44.080 --> 00:09:48.360 right in there. So when we're looking at if you 177 00:09:48.399 --> 00:09:50.120 want to be you want to be charitable for what 178 00:09:50.240 --> 00:09:54.000 happened at the end of the week in the Oval Office, 179 00:09:54.279 --> 00:09:58.000 you can understand, especially from the Ukrainian point of view, 180 00:09:58.080 --> 00:10:01.759 and if you go back with their history, don't have 181 00:10:01.759 --> 00:10:03.960 to go too, but I'd just go back to the 182 00:10:05.840 --> 00:10:10.759 battles and the wars from nineteen seventeen on up through 183 00:10:10.799 --> 00:10:15.480 the nineteen nineteen early nineteen twenties in Ukraine that there 184 00:10:15.559 --> 00:10:20.440 is a long and deep history of them signing agreements 185 00:10:20.519 --> 00:10:24.759 and in not going anywhere, and the meeting they had 186 00:10:24.759 --> 00:10:26.919 in Europe with a lot of those same players. There's 187 00:10:26.960 --> 00:10:30.519 a lot of talk, so to speak. So when you 188 00:10:30.519 --> 00:10:32.480 look at the environment of trying to get people to 189 00:10:32.600 --> 00:10:38.159 the table, I'm not sure the same worldview, the same procedures, 190 00:10:38.240 --> 00:10:41.840 and the same players that we're working in the nineteen 191 00:10:41.919 --> 00:10:46.360 nineties from Ukraine through the Balkans, are really going to 192 00:10:46.399 --> 00:10:49.840 pave a smooth pass for anybody who wants to have 193 00:10:50.000 --> 00:10:52.840 a serious conversation at a table to try to stop 194 00:10:52.879 --> 00:10:54.120 this war. 195 00:10:54.759 --> 00:10:57.639 Well, I think the interesting things here is from the 196 00:10:57.679 --> 00:11:01.799 point of view of folks in Eastern Europe, not just Ukraine, 197 00:11:01.960 --> 00:11:04.600 but you know, the Poles, the Baltic States, et cetera. 198 00:11:04.919 --> 00:11:08.360 Their reason for wanting to join NATO in the in 199 00:11:08.360 --> 00:11:11.279 the nineties and the Twosans was exactly this history. It 200 00:11:11.360 --> 00:11:14.559 was the fact that Russia, Germany, et cetera had rampaged 201 00:11:14.559 --> 00:11:18.320 across their territory, you know, killing for centuries, and they 202 00:11:18.320 --> 00:11:20.240 were trying to find a way out of that by 203 00:11:20.240 --> 00:11:22.759 finding a guarrant tor and a number of those states 204 00:11:22.799 --> 00:11:26.320 made it into NATO. They're inside that Article five guarantee. 205 00:11:26.320 --> 00:11:30.159 Now the Ukrainians have remained outside it. And that's I mean, 206 00:11:30.240 --> 00:11:33.200 in large part geographic right, they are on the edge 207 00:11:33.559 --> 00:11:37.600 right between you know, Eastern Europe and Russia. And so 208 00:11:37.679 --> 00:11:40.480 they never made it inside that umbrella. There are plenty 209 00:11:40.519 --> 00:11:43.639 of reasons why US policymakers didn't want them to. But 210 00:11:43.759 --> 00:11:46.879 even as the West is talking about liberal values and 211 00:11:46.919 --> 00:11:49.559 standing up for democracy and all of these things. It 212 00:11:49.600 --> 00:11:52.200 really is very much a real politique calculation for the 213 00:11:52.240 --> 00:11:53.080 Eastern European. 214 00:11:55.519 --> 00:11:57.679 Yeah, it's been among other things that are going. I mean, 215 00:11:57.679 --> 00:12:01.320 Europe on one hand says where we stand Ukraine sort of, 216 00:12:01.639 --> 00:12:03.440 but we're going to continue to business with the Russia 217 00:12:03.480 --> 00:12:06.879 because we've we've bet are a lot of our energy policy. 218 00:12:06.919 --> 00:12:09.320 I'm getting stuff from the Russians. You know, how do 219 00:12:09.399 --> 00:12:13.080 they as I see now that the Brits are threatening 220 00:12:13.120 --> 00:12:17.399 to send six aircraft of unknown type maybe helicopters to 221 00:12:17.559 --> 00:12:21.759 help Ukraine, how are they justify I mean the Germans, 222 00:12:21.759 --> 00:12:24.399 how do they justify taking any kind of stance here? 223 00:12:24.399 --> 00:12:26.240 They're going to be playing both ends against the metal. 224 00:12:27.279 --> 00:12:30.480 Yeah, I think this is particularly true of the Germans. 225 00:12:30.559 --> 00:12:34.120 I am somewhat less critical of the Brits, who have 226 00:12:34.720 --> 00:12:38.080 a fair amount considering their budgetary issues, the French a 227 00:12:38.120 --> 00:12:41.440 little more. The Germans have been particularly bad, but they 228 00:12:41.480 --> 00:12:45.000 have always been bad about stepping up on defense, particularly 229 00:12:45.039 --> 00:12:48.879 when it comes with any implications for their federal budget 230 00:12:48.879 --> 00:12:51.039 and for you know, having to take on state debt. 231 00:12:51.320 --> 00:12:54.240 So you know, what we've seen over the last three 232 00:12:54.360 --> 00:12:58.120 years in Europe is European states very much committing to 233 00:12:58.799 --> 00:13:02.279 standing up support Ukraine, bolstering their own defenses. You might 234 00:13:02.320 --> 00:13:05.000 even remember in Germany there's this whole thing about the 235 00:13:05.080 --> 00:13:07.679 Zeit and vendor right, the changing of the times, we're 236 00:13:07.720 --> 00:13:10.120 going to start looking at the world differently. This was 237 00:13:10.159 --> 00:13:13.519 a speech that the Chancellor gave just after the invasion, 238 00:13:13.679 --> 00:13:15.759 and then a lot of that spending didn't materialize, and 239 00:13:15.759 --> 00:13:19.559 that's actually quite common across Europe. So you know, we've 240 00:13:19.559 --> 00:13:23.200 got these very strong pledges of assistance that have been 241 00:13:23.240 --> 00:13:27.399 met with, you know, some assistance, and Europeans have stepped 242 00:13:27.480 --> 00:13:29.840 up a little more as the US has become you know, 243 00:13:30.159 --> 00:13:33.440 less likely to do so, but they're nowhere near ready 244 00:13:33.440 --> 00:13:35.600 to stand on their own feet. And what we have 245 00:13:35.759 --> 00:13:38.799 is pretty much three years of squandered time that they 246 00:13:38.879 --> 00:13:42.039 could have been building armament's capacity, and that's simply not 247 00:13:42.120 --> 00:13:42.720 been doing it. 248 00:13:44.320 --> 00:13:48.000 Yeah, I think that, you know, here we are in 249 00:13:48.039 --> 00:13:51.399 twenty twenty five, and there's a great graph that I 250 00:13:51.799 --> 00:13:57.320 wrote about a few weeks ago. It's has the percentage 251 00:13:57.320 --> 00:14:00.519 GDP spent on defense per nation. But you know the 252 00:14:00.919 --> 00:14:02.320 reply you get from a lot of people, well, it's 253 00:14:02.320 --> 00:14:04.279 not how much you spent is what you spend it on. 254 00:14:04.759 --> 00:14:09.919 So the vertical axis is the percent of that defense 255 00:14:10.000 --> 00:14:13.360 budget that's spent on weapons and material. So you know, 256 00:14:13.399 --> 00:14:15.879 if you have a military that's basically a social welfare 257 00:14:15.960 --> 00:14:18.120 program and you're not buying any weapons, you know you 258 00:14:18.120 --> 00:14:20.559 don't get the credit. And the bottom left hand corner, 259 00:14:20.720 --> 00:14:24.080 you've got Canada, you've got Belgium, you've got Slovenia. A 260 00:14:24.120 --> 00:14:26.559 lot of nations had made progress to try to push 261 00:14:26.600 --> 00:14:31.559 above two percent, and you know, there's nothing like reality. 262 00:14:31.679 --> 00:14:35.399 Wake people up. In Poland, Poland has really taking a 263 00:14:35.480 --> 00:14:39.279 leadership position here and seeing the environment along with the 264 00:14:39.279 --> 00:14:44.600 Baltics and stepping forward. It's I think they're north of 265 00:14:44.639 --> 00:14:46.919 three and a half percent. They're going to push to 266 00:14:47.000 --> 00:14:50.120 four percent or more. And there's a real interesting comment 267 00:14:50.399 --> 00:14:54.759 when we look at Europeans, as many of us for 268 00:14:54.799 --> 00:15:00.559 two decades have been asking them to take a firmer 269 00:15:00.679 --> 00:15:04.440 role in the security on their continent. Polish Prime Minister 270 00:15:04.519 --> 00:15:08.279 Donald Tusk had a neat phrase that he did on 271 00:15:08.320 --> 00:15:13.120 the tarmac. Quote, five hundred million of Europeans are asking 272 00:15:13.200 --> 00:15:16.399 three hundred million Americans to defend them against one hundred 273 00:15:16.399 --> 00:15:19.879 and forty million Russians. The Europe today lacked the belief 274 00:15:19.960 --> 00:15:22.960 that we truly are a global force. So it's not 275 00:15:23.000 --> 00:15:28.240 just individually, it's Europe itself and Poland stepped forward in 276 00:15:28.240 --> 00:15:32.120 a leadership position, but besides some smaller nations. When he 277 00:15:32.200 --> 00:15:36.320 looks behind him, who has his back? France and Germany 278 00:15:36.879 --> 00:15:40.600 and even the UK in many ways, the sense of 279 00:15:40.759 --> 00:15:45.840 urgency just isn't there. So Bz to the Poles, but 280 00:15:46.159 --> 00:15:48.759 the rest of continental NATO, it's a lot of their 281 00:15:48.759 --> 00:15:51.080 statements have been a little hollow recently. 282 00:15:52.480 --> 00:15:54.559 I don't want to say track us too much into 283 00:15:54.559 --> 00:15:57.360 the NATO debate. I think is also worth noting here 284 00:15:57.440 --> 00:16:02.759 right that Europe does a series of collective action problems. 285 00:16:02.799 --> 00:16:06.440 We talk about Europe as if it is thing, and 286 00:16:06.759 --> 00:16:10.080 it is not right. It is a collection of smaller nations, 287 00:16:10.399 --> 00:16:12.480 some of the many of them jammed together into the 288 00:16:12.480 --> 00:16:16.759 European Union, and the problem with that approach is they 289 00:16:16.840 --> 00:16:20.480 share divergent threat perspectives. Right, One of the lowest spenders 290 00:16:20.480 --> 00:16:23.919 in the Alliance, aside from Canada, which you noted, is Spain. Right, 291 00:16:23.919 --> 00:16:27.240 And if you're sitting in Madrid, this situation looks very 292 00:16:27.240 --> 00:16:30.200 different than if you're sitting in Warsaw and so you know, 293 00:16:30.240 --> 00:16:33.480 the divergent threat perceptions don't help. The lack of a 294 00:16:33.519 --> 00:16:37.240 common institutional structure doesn't help. You have the US as 295 00:16:37.279 --> 00:16:40.320 partly guilty here. We've spent years insisting that all defense 296 00:16:40.320 --> 00:16:42.519 stuff has to be done through NATO rather than the 297 00:16:42.519 --> 00:16:45.320 European Union. That only changed in the last sort of 298 00:16:45.799 --> 00:16:49.519 maybe one two administration, and so they don't have clay 299 00:16:49.600 --> 00:16:52.799 institutional structures for doing it too. And so I fully 300 00:16:52.919 --> 00:16:56.440 upset and acknowledge that it is difficult for European states 301 00:16:56.440 --> 00:16:59.440 to step up on defense. It is easy for countries 302 00:16:59.480 --> 00:17:02.000 like Germany to just pass the bot back to the 303 00:17:02.120 --> 00:17:06.319 United States or even to other European states. The problem is, 304 00:17:06.359 --> 00:17:08.240 you know, it's kind of a chicken and egg problem, right. 305 00:17:08.319 --> 00:17:11.920 If they can't solve this problem, then the US can't leave, 306 00:17:12.039 --> 00:17:14.400 can't pull back, can't shift the burden. But at the 307 00:17:14.400 --> 00:17:17.440 same time, what will actually take to make them do that? 308 00:17:17.720 --> 00:17:19.680 Maybe it's the US leaving, And so I think that's 309 00:17:19.720 --> 00:17:22.440 one of the active debates in trying to understand how 310 00:17:22.680 --> 00:17:25.359 to make Europe step up more. And then Ukraine, of course, 311 00:17:25.440 --> 00:17:28.400 is another complication because I think I would probably be 312 00:17:28.440 --> 00:17:31.039 remiss if I didn't point out that there are trade offs, 313 00:17:31.240 --> 00:17:33.880 right for some of these NATO states, particularly ones like Poland, 314 00:17:34.160 --> 00:17:36.599 Arm yourselves or armed Ukraine. That's a tough. 315 00:17:36.480 --> 00:17:40.559 Choice, yeah, those of us who had to deal with 316 00:17:40.799 --> 00:17:45.319 NATO forces and the various caveats that their countries place 317 00:17:45.359 --> 00:17:48.359 on their participation in events. I'm amused today or that 318 00:17:48.880 --> 00:17:51.279 there is a talk about some kind of European armed 319 00:17:51.319 --> 00:17:57.160 force that would be jointly run by all these countries. 320 00:17:57.200 --> 00:18:00.799 I mean, you know, the largest militaries and in Europe, 321 00:18:01.000 --> 00:18:03.720 I guess France and Spain and Italy. I mean, I 322 00:18:03.720 --> 00:18:06.200 think Italy's got the biggest staring forces in the area. 323 00:18:06.400 --> 00:18:08.839 You know, they don't seem to be designed to really 324 00:18:08.880 --> 00:18:12.880 confront the Russians in any stage. They do participate in 325 00:18:13.359 --> 00:18:16.799 various NATO activities, but not necessarily at the level we want. 326 00:18:17.359 --> 00:18:19.880 So I was struck by one of those phrases in 327 00:18:19.920 --> 00:18:23.000 your piece called bluff and prey. Talk a little bit 328 00:18:23.000 --> 00:18:23.920 about bluff and pray. 329 00:18:25.119 --> 00:18:25.279 Well. 330 00:18:25.319 --> 00:18:27.839 I cannot claim credit for this. This was actually come 331 00:18:27.920 --> 00:18:30.720 up by the folks who wrote a report at the 332 00:18:30.920 --> 00:18:35.440 German Claudia Mayor, who's an analyst at the big German 333 00:18:35.480 --> 00:18:38.400 Foreign policy think type SWP. Please don't make me say 334 00:18:38.400 --> 00:18:41.960 it in German, I cannot pronounce it. But she suggested 335 00:18:42.000 --> 00:18:45.160 this bluff and Prey, basically saying, look, if you want 336 00:18:45.240 --> 00:18:49.240 a European security force to guarantee peace in Ukraine, and 337 00:18:49.279 --> 00:18:52.119 again to be very clear here, we're not talking about peacekeeping, 338 00:18:52.359 --> 00:18:55.599 We're talking about detendance against Russia in the future, right, 339 00:18:55.640 --> 00:18:58.039 so it's preventing a future war. And she basically says, look, 340 00:18:58.039 --> 00:19:01.039 there's a couple of options, right. You can either bring 341 00:19:01.039 --> 00:19:05.400 them into NATO, rely on Article five's to terran abilities, 342 00:19:05.599 --> 00:19:07.240 and then you probably don't need as many troops on 343 00:19:07.279 --> 00:19:09.680 the ground because the Russians will believe the US will 344 00:19:09.680 --> 00:19:13.759 come in swinging if they as they attack. You can 345 00:19:13.920 --> 00:19:16.359 if that's not an option, she says, you can send 346 00:19:16.359 --> 00:19:19.799 an adequately resourced force to do this. And I think 347 00:19:19.799 --> 00:19:22.480 her estimate was about two hundred thousand, but I've seen 348 00:19:22.559 --> 00:19:24.920 estimates all the way up to half a million European 349 00:19:24.960 --> 00:19:27.519 troops and all the enablers that they need to actually 350 00:19:27.599 --> 00:19:30.759 get there, which they don't have all of necessarily, But 351 00:19:30.839 --> 00:19:33.920 that's another option for deterrants. And then the third option, 352 00:19:33.960 --> 00:19:36.440 which is the one she calls bluff and prey is 353 00:19:36.480 --> 00:19:41.039 the one where the Europeans send forty thousand troops. That 354 00:19:41.200 --> 00:19:46.240 is doable given their current military staffing, given the resources 355 00:19:46.240 --> 00:19:48.240 they have at hand. It'll be tough, but it's doable. 356 00:19:48.400 --> 00:19:51.799 But then they're basically bluffing, and they're saying they're hoping 357 00:19:52.240 --> 00:19:55.079 that Russia doesn't test that bluff because if Russia does, 358 00:19:55.880 --> 00:19:59.440 then what is actually behind those forty thousand troops to 359 00:19:59.680 --> 00:20:01.920 flow into theater. You know, if this is just a 360 00:20:01.960 --> 00:20:04.640 trip wire force and it gets wipes out by the Russians, 361 00:20:05.160 --> 00:20:08.599 the Europeans don't actually have the forces to backstop fighting 362 00:20:08.640 --> 00:20:11.279 the war that that would cause. So that I think 363 00:20:11.319 --> 00:20:14.279 is why she she went with this very evocative phrase 364 00:20:14.519 --> 00:20:17.799 because it's not a realistic approach. It's just an approach 365 00:20:17.880 --> 00:20:19.799 to hoping that the problem doesn't occur. 366 00:20:23.039 --> 00:20:26.559 The I'm flipping ahead a bit because you mentioned something 367 00:20:26.599 --> 00:20:31.799 trigger later on in the in the article is you 368 00:20:31.880 --> 00:20:33.680 have the theory, you have things that are signed, but 369 00:20:33.759 --> 00:20:36.440 you know, wars have their own own logic. And you 370 00:20:36.519 --> 00:20:39.200 make a good point about even if there was an 371 00:20:39.240 --> 00:20:42.799 all European mission to eastern Ukraine and let's use the 372 00:20:42.880 --> 00:20:47.000 usual suspects, the UK's got boots on the ground. Maybe 373 00:20:47.160 --> 00:20:50.519 maybe the French are there, Uh, maybe the Italians are 374 00:20:50.759 --> 00:20:53.000 are are thrown in a couple of troops that have 375 00:20:53.119 --> 00:20:55.160 the real fancy feathers that come off the top of 376 00:20:55.200 --> 00:20:58.000 their hat, you know they're there. They're on a trip tripwire. 377 00:20:57.480 --> 00:20:57.799 And. 378 00:20:59.359 --> 00:21:03.039 Stuff happened, and conflict breaks out, and little quote that 379 00:21:03.079 --> 00:21:07.880 you had here under the foreign Entanglements section quote. What's more, 380 00:21:07.920 --> 00:21:11.279 in all, European mission in Ukraine would still rise raise 381 00:21:11.319 --> 00:21:13.880 the risk that the United States would be pulled in 382 00:21:13.880 --> 00:21:16.839 to a future war in Ukraine. This is particularly true 383 00:21:16.880 --> 00:21:19.400 in the case of a small European deterrent force that 384 00:21:19.480 --> 00:21:22.559 doesn't have sufficient reserves to call on in a crisis. 385 00:21:22.599 --> 00:21:26.279 That was just you're referring to. Even if US policymakers 386 00:21:26.519 --> 00:21:29.759 were clear upfront that NATO's Article five would not apply 387 00:21:29.920 --> 00:21:33.240 to the deployed European troops, the pressure to respond in 388 00:21:33.279 --> 00:21:36.759 the event of a Russian attack would be overwhelming, potentially 389 00:21:36.759 --> 00:21:41.200 pulling the United States into war. End of quote. That spotlo. 390 00:21:41.359 --> 00:21:44.279 We can all see the news reports and the questions, 391 00:21:44.599 --> 00:21:47.160 and in many ways such a force would be and 392 00:21:47.160 --> 00:21:50.079 I'm going to be a little snarky here, but it 393 00:21:50.160 --> 00:21:54.880 privatizes European virtue signaling about their desires for peace, but 394 00:21:55.039 --> 00:21:59.359 americanized as risk because Article five or not, it will 395 00:21:59.400 --> 00:22:03.160 create it own logic. And what everybody's trying to avoid 396 00:22:03.480 --> 00:22:06.720 is you've got full scale warfare on the European continent 397 00:22:06.759 --> 00:22:08.400 again with Americans. 398 00:22:09.559 --> 00:22:12.400 And I'll be honest, you know, I don't know which 399 00:22:12.400 --> 00:22:14.599 way this would go. I think if you had asked 400 00:22:14.640 --> 00:22:18.160 me this question, you know, five ten years ago, I 401 00:22:18.160 --> 00:22:20.599