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Speaker 2: All right, welcome in.

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Speaker 1: It is time for full Court Press the Sweet sixteen edition.

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But quick programming note, if you missed yesterday's show, Matt

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and I went over the NIT and then the East

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region of the Sweet sixteen, so that is up on

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the wager Talk YouTube channel on demand. There is still

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two NIT games tonight that we talked about on there,

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and then the East region Duke Saint John's Michigan State

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Yukon is already done, already clicked up. You may have

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seen those videos on Twitter at this point, they're on

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the wager Talk YouTube channel. So we're not gonna talk

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about those games here. We're gonna leave the hour for

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the other three regions. But first I want to welcome

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in my co host, Matthew Winnick at Matthew Winnick on Twitter.

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Speaker 2: Matt, you know what you ended up being.

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Speaker 1: Like pretty much spot on in the NIT I split

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last night, but you were all over New Mexico and

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they certainly sort of came out in the second half.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they sat Joe's hit their shots early, but New

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Mexico doesn't care. They're gonna stick with their plan, and

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their plan inevitably over forty minutes, making a bad shooting team,

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take a ton of threes, ended up working overtime, and

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that's the thing, Like this is a good lesson to

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learn just with basketball in general, and when we had

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to wait this season and early next season, just because

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the plan doesn't work in the first half doesn't mean

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it's the wrong plan.

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Speaker 1: So I've decided, so Wichita State, we were going. I'm

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going to mark yesterday's parlay as a loss because on

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the show it was still three and a half. And

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if you so, if you guys remember on the show,

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I said that I was gonna wait until Tulsa got

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bet as if David Green was playing, I hoped he

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would be in and then I would probably take Whichita State.

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That is exactly what I did for my clients at

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wager Talk. I played it at four and a half.

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It landed for so we cashed with that one. But

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I can't count the show parlay as a win. So, Matt,

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what I decided to do to make this parlay a

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three teamer is I want to use your leg from yesterday,

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So can you very quickly just recap what your play

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was because that goes tonight in the NIT.

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Speaker 3: That was the Dayton Illinois State over. We've been seeing

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a lot of overs in the NIT. I don't think

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that Illinois State can stop Dayton and I think Illinois

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State makes enough shots for this to go over.

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Speaker 2: Yep.

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Speaker 1: So that will be the open leg of our three

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teamer for the analysis on that.

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Speaker 2: As I said, head over to yesterday's show.

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Speaker 1: It's up on the wager Talk YouTube channel, and that

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is where you'll find both of tonight's n games as

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well as the East region of the Sweet Sixteen. So,

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without further ado, let's get in to the rest of

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the Sweet Sixteen and we'll go We'll go region by

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region right here.

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Speaker 2: And I'll actually go day by day.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with the Thursday games, and I'm gonna start

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over in the West region because again we're just going

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to kind of go the first game to tip off

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of the Sweet Sixteen is out West. It's Texas and

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Purdue and matt I. You know, I sigh here because

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I like Texas. I want to be on Texas. I

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felt like my handicap of Miami was pretty good over

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the weekend. And of course the reason that you can

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tell the sort of you know that I'm upset about

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it is because that Miami bet didn't win, and I

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felt like I deserve to win down four with.

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Speaker 2: Fifty six seconds left. But at the same.

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Speaker 1: Time, I guess, you know, a neutral party could look

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at it and say that knockout punch was kind of

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always come and it was kind of right there, and

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that's kind of what Purdue did at the end of

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that game. I worry that the same thing happens to

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me here if I take Texas. It's why I haven't

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bet it yet. But I wouldn't be that surprised if

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Texas hung around. So talk to me, Texas perdue. This

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is what I was having trouble with.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this is gonna be a really really interesting game

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because these two teams, and I think this is the

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case for so many of these games, and the Sweet

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Sixteen is these two teams play unbelievably differently, and they

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come from leagues the SEC and the Big Ten that

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play unbelievably differently, and so not only do they play different,

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but they haven't really played a lot of teams that

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play like their opponent. So there's not a lot of

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precedent in terms of how these teams are going to fare.

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Texas plays you know, a very very soft drop coverage.

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It means they're not going to force the ball and

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force pressure on Braiden Smith at all. They want Braiden

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Smith to be a shooter. They wanted to be a score.

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They want braid and Smith to take twenty shots in

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this game and have four assists versus a lot of

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the games that Braiden Smith's played, especially of late. It's

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the opposite. They're going to send two to the ball.

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They're going to make Brad Smith give it up. What

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that means is Purdue is going to take a lot

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of pull up two's in this game. Now, Purdue's amazing

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at doing that, but it's not a very it's not

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a very efficient shot. They're not going to get to

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the rim munch. They're not going to take a lot

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of threes. They're not going to have a lot of

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you know, CJ. Cox, if he's healthy, Fletcher Lawyer's threes.

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It's gonna be a lot of Smith and Trey Koffman

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ran pick and roll over and over and over again.

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The question is is that actually the best thing for

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Purdue's offense. I actually don't think it is. But on

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the flip side, Texas loves to get to the free

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throw line. It's an SEC thing. Everyone in the SEC

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gets the free throw line, gets the offensive glass. Those

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are two things that Texas needs. They need the free

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throw line, they need offensive rebounding. Purdue is top thirty

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in the country at defending both. You can't get to

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the free throw line against them, and you can't get

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offensive rebounds, which means now the pressures on Texas to

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make shots and tron Mark is off his game. If

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Jordan Pope isn't hitting threes, Texas has no one that

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can hit shots. And so this is a matchup where

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I think that the offense is not going to be

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put in ideal situations on both sides.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I just go to the comments and

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try to sort of incorporate as many into the show

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as I can, and I see a good point. It's like, yeah,

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Slick Vick says, you know, vocatitis follows a lot, and

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you know all season that's kind of been an issue

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that that is a concern him getting into foul trouble

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because that certainly, you know, Texas is not as good

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with him not on the floor. I guess my other

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main concern in this game, you know, you talked about

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Braden Smith. You know, he's typically very good against the

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drop coverage like Texas's tech, like Texas is going to

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play you know, I go back to the Miami game.

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I thought they did a pretty good job on him

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in general. They he had he took twelve shots, he

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was only three for twelve, So like Miami was trying

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to bait him into what you were saying is like

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shooting the basketball.

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Speaker 2: They turned him over eight times.

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Speaker 1: And yet Purdue at the end of dust settles and

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produce still has a double digit win. And again I

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I will you know, I'm going to complain a little

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bit like that. You know, Miami gets it down to four,

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there's fifty six seconds left. Why are we following? Why

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are we not playing that out? And then I probably cover.

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But the flip side of that is like Miami kind

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of had to battle back to get back down for

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there was a point in time in the second half

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where it felt like Purdue could have been up fifteen

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seventeen and he could have been good night. So while

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I do think Texas has the athletes and could have

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I mean, they've had the shot making all tournament so far.

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This might be they might be asking for a lot

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here for Texas to stay in this game.

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Speaker 3: You want to britten Smith's stat because Texas is going to,

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like I said, force him to shoot a bunch of

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shots in the mid range because they're not going to

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pressure him at all. Purdue's two and three this year.

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When he takes more than fifteen shots, they are fourteen

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and one. When he takes less than ten, I promise

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you he'll take more than ten shots. And I if

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I were to guess he will take more than fifteen shots,

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in which case that is where Purdue is two and three.

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They lost to Illinois, Wisconsin and Ohio State and they

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beat Penn State and out of.

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Speaker 1: Bit that's a really good stat actually, and that this,

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you know, I think that's like un fortunately for me here, Matt,

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like I'm as I sort of look at the sweet

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sixteen as a whole.

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Speaker 2: I have I have a lot of I.

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Speaker 1: Have more opinions that I'm like the high of conviction

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that I expected to. So it's going to probably be

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a little bit easier for me to leave this one alone.

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My number comes out, I'm close to the market. I

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think it was actually like eight point two. Yeah, I

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was eight. I was perdue minus eight point two here,

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so at seven and a half, I don't I don't

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think I'll have any involvement with with with Texas, And

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I made the mistake of I was close to the

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market on the Purdue Miami game. I just I loved

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how how much that's set up for Miami and seeing

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Purdue cover and then what they did in the second half,

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I think is going to scare me off here.

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Speaker 2: So I don't think I'll have anything in this one.

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Speaker 3: In theory, I do really like the under, but it's

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seven to seven and a half points off of Ken Bombs,

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so you're gonna have to really like the under if

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you want to take it, which I do, but I

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wouldn't necessarily recommend it just because of how far it's

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off of model.

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Speaker 1: All Right, we are going to stay out west the

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SAP Center, San Jose, California. The nightcap in this building

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gonna be a great game to watch, definitely one I'm

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very excited to to, you know, to watch in Arkansas

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and Arizona. But this is the first of two for me, Matt.

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Where I wrote on my notes, I circled these and

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I wrote, don't do it. Okay, that's what I have

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right next to Arkansas. I said, don't do it. My

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number shows a little Arkansas value. I have been very

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high on Arkansas this year. Sometimes when you go to

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a lot of games and see a lot of teams

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in person, I walked out of the Breslin Center earlier

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this year and I was just like, Oh, I love

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this Arkansas team. I know they lost this game, but

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like a cuff is just I mean, there's there's just

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so much potential here and I kind of have you know,

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I've sort of carried that through the season with me,

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and actually it's probably helped me in that regard because

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I think Arkansas did sort of blossom into being a

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team that was like, maybe probably better than people thought

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they were at that point in the year. I also

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saw Arkansas down in Gainesville when they got run out

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by forty because they couldn't guard Florida, And that's where

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I'll throw this to you. Their defense has been a

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real issue. High point got whatever they want against it,

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you know, against them, and Arkansas was able to will

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their way to a win. But that is very scary

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against the Arizona Wildcats, who kind of compare a little

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bit more to that Florida team that dropped one hundred

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something and probably could have put more if they didn't

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unload their bench. So talk to me about Arkansas Arizona.

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Do you think the Razorbacks have a shot? And where

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are you out on the number here?

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Speaker 3: They don't have a chance. Okay, if you needed more

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voices to tell you not to do it in Arkansas,

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let me be the voice. Don't do it on Arkansas.

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It's just that's a bad idea. Arkansas is the worst

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rim defense in Power Conference basketball, I think in the

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entire country. Like it's so so bad. And the part

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that's craziest about their rim defense being so horrific is

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there twenty fourth in the country and block rate, Like

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they block so many shots and it still doesn't matter.

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Their rim defense is so unbelievably bad. They allow teams

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to shoot sixty one percent at the rim, which is

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a fifteenth percentile rate and normally left for like the

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worst teams in the country. The thing with Arkansas is

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they go for blocks so frequently between Trevon Brazil, Malik You,

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and Nick Pringle that if they don't get it, it's

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two points. If you can get an offensive rebound and

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00:11:42,919 --> 00:11:44,879
if you pump fake them, they're in the air and

240
00:11:44,879 --> 00:11:49,000
then you're scoring. With Arizona playing two bigs at all times,

241
00:11:49,039 --> 00:11:51,120
it means that if the first shot doesn't go in,

242
00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:53,840
the second shots going right to the other big, they're

243
00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:56,279
gonna get so many offensive rebounds, they're gonna score so

244
00:11:56,279 --> 00:11:59,840
many points. You mentioned the Florida game, another team that's huge,

245
00:12:00,159 --> 00:12:02,759
amazing at the rim and plays two bigs. They made

246
00:12:02,879 --> 00:12:06,720
thirty one two point field goals and they got forty

247
00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:09,759
nine percent of their misses on the offensive glass. If

248
00:12:09,799 --> 00:12:11,759
you're gonna get half of your misses and make thirty

249
00:12:11,799 --> 00:12:14,000
one to two pointers, Florida score one hundred and eleven

250
00:12:14,039 --> 00:12:17,240
points in that game. Arizona will score one hundred if

251
00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:20,320
that happens. And there's no magic fix for Arkansas because

252
00:12:20,320 --> 00:12:23,000
they only play seven guys and their best defender, Nick

253
00:12:23,039 --> 00:12:25,559
Pringle is injured and might play, but if he does,

254
00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:29,080
it won't be much. The only way Arkansas has a

255
00:12:29,159 --> 00:12:31,799
chance here is if Darius Seguff and Malik Thomas combined

256
00:12:31,799 --> 00:12:35,600
for like sixty five points, and they might, in which

257
00:12:35,639 --> 00:12:38,320
case the game goes over. But if you're at telling

258
00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:42,720
me which team has a more efficient and better pathway

259
00:12:42,759 --> 00:12:44,399
to points. Is it the one that's going to get

260
00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:47,639
half of their offensive rebounds and score sixty points in

261
00:12:47,679 --> 00:12:49,519
the paint, or is it the one that has two

262
00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:51,840
bucket getters and is going to score sixty points off

263
00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:53,759
of mid range pull up jumpers? Like I'm gonna take

264
00:12:53,759 --> 00:12:56,080
the rim team twenty times out of ten.

265
00:12:58,519 --> 00:13:02,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I think we ultimately talk me off of,

266
00:13:02,639 --> 00:13:05,039
you know, messing with Arkansas here, and I'll make I'll

267
00:13:05,039 --> 00:13:06,720
make my point on the number in a second. But

268
00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:10,519
you know, I was at the Florida game obviously, I

269
00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:13,879
mean that was as dominant of a performance that you're

270
00:13:13,879 --> 00:13:17,519
probably going to ever find, big national TV game Saturday

271
00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:21,360
night sellout Arkansas. Actually, you know what was even more

272
00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:23,960
ridiculous about that game. Arkansas actually kind of dominated the

273
00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:26,799
first eight minutes. There was a point in time where

274
00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:29,360
Todd Golden had to call a time out because Arkansas

275
00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:32,440
went up like sixteen twelve. They were they had more

276
00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:36,720
energy than Florida, you know it was, and he called

277
00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:38,639
a time out and they were actually down I think

278
00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:42,720
it was sixteen ten or sixteen twelve. And that game

279
00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:46,039
turned into a forty point blowout. And so that just

280
00:13:46,519 --> 00:13:49,200
to you know, just to kind of put it in perspective.

281
00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:53,039
But you know that Arkansas suddenly played a very easy

282
00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:56,679
week schedule of late right like, they drew a good,

283
00:13:56,799 --> 00:13:59,399
really good first round matchup in Hawaii that didn't press

284
00:13:59,440 --> 00:14:02,240
them at all. They had the benefit of high Point

285
00:14:02,279 --> 00:14:04,919
pulling the upset so they didn't have to face Wisconsin

286
00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:08,360
the SEC tournament Ole Miss in Oklahoma.

287
00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:10,000
Speaker 2: Not great team.

288
00:14:10,039 --> 00:14:13,360
Speaker 1: You know, the Vandy win is solid, but and I

289
00:14:13,399 --> 00:14:15,919
even made so I'll give you my second point and

290
00:14:15,919 --> 00:14:17,759
then you can kind of wrap this up.

291
00:14:18,279 --> 00:14:20,840
Speaker 2: I said, Okay, I Arkansas.

292
00:14:20,879 --> 00:14:24,000
Speaker 1: When we talked about Arkansas high Point last week, I said,

293
00:14:24,039 --> 00:14:26,960
you know, I prefer Arkansas in the underdog role.

294
00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:30,000
Speaker 2: That's where I'd rather have them. I actually leaned toward

295
00:14:30,039 --> 00:14:30,399
high Point.

296
00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:31,879
Speaker 1: I think I gave out high Point on the show

297
00:14:31,919 --> 00:14:33,720
plus the points and said, I don't want this team

298
00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:34,919
as an eleven point favorite.

299
00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:36,840
Speaker 2: I prefer them as the underdog. Here.

300
00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:39,679
Speaker 1: My number was six and a half, so on the

301
00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:43,000
open at eight and a half, that showed value. Now

302
00:14:43,039 --> 00:14:45,879
I didn't bet it because I still have a brain,

303
00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:48,159
and I was you know, you know, I still I'm

304
00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:50,799
not just going to blindly bet my numbers. But the

305
00:14:50,879 --> 00:14:52,960
final point I'm gonna make before I throw this back

306
00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:57,399
to you is I do think the market is sort

307
00:14:57,440 --> 00:15:01,240
of betting this the way that my number is suggesting

308
00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:03,720
to bet. There's eight and a half down to seven

309
00:15:03,799 --> 00:15:05,320
and a half a lot of places. So my question

310
00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:07,799
to you is, is this a point where you're punching back?

311
00:15:07,879 --> 00:15:08,919
Speaker 2: Is this as good as it's going to get?

312
00:15:08,919 --> 00:15:08,960
Speaker 3: It?

313
00:15:09,039 --> 00:15:11,279
Speaker 1: You, like, Arizona, Should you be hopping on seven and

314
00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:12,080
a half right now?

315
00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:12,720
Speaker 2: Yeah?

316
00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:14,240
Speaker 3: I mean it might get better, but I think you're

317
00:15:14,399 --> 00:15:17,240
sure you're getting value on the price given Ken Palm

318
00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:18,720
has an eight, and I think this is a great

319
00:15:18,759 --> 00:15:23,240
matchup for Arizona specifically, just outside of the number. The

320
00:15:23,279 --> 00:15:25,679
other thing here is like there's gonna be so many points,

321
00:15:25,799 --> 00:15:29,559
and obviously the total is in the mid one sixties,

322
00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:33,080
so that's going to be expected. I would say that,

323
00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:35,279
like the natural inclination is like, oh, take the over.

324
00:15:35,399 --> 00:15:37,879
But I just think that Arizona is a safer side

325
00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:42,399
because like, when I'm thinking about what's safest, I'm always

326
00:15:42,399 --> 00:15:44,600
going to think about which team has the rim advantage

327
00:15:44,679 --> 00:15:47,639
because there's no variance in rimed tends like you're either

328
00:15:47,799 --> 00:15:49,279
good at the rim or you're not good at the rim.

329
00:15:49,279 --> 00:15:50,799
You're either gonna get to the rim, you're not gonna

330
00:15:50,799 --> 00:15:53,080
get to the rim. You either have good rim defense

331
00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:55,600
or you don't. And Arizona gets to the rim and

332
00:15:55,720 --> 00:16:00,120
Arkansas has bad rim defense. You don't have fluctuations and

333
00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:02,840
shooting percentage on layups. You either make them and you

334
00:16:02,879 --> 00:16:07,559
get them, or you don't, And so Arizona does. With Arkansas,

335
00:16:08,039 --> 00:16:10,960
It's going to come down to whether Darius Acuff and

336
00:16:11,039 --> 00:16:14,000
Malik Thomas are unbelievable or not. You think about that

337
00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:17,120
Alabama Arkansas game that went to two overtimes, that was

338
00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:20,559
one hundred and seventeen to one fifteen in double overtime.

339
00:16:20,559 --> 00:16:24,039
That was insane. Alabama should have won that game by thirty.

340
00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:27,600
They shot seventy two percent at the rim. But Darius

341
00:16:27,639 --> 00:16:32,080
Acuff was so unbelievable that Arkansas actually just had a chance.

342
00:16:32,559 --> 00:16:35,960
To my point, it took a forty nine point performance

343
00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:39,080
from Darius Acuff for Arkansas to have a chance and

344
00:16:39,159 --> 00:16:43,000
still lose. So the safest play here is Arizona. In

345
00:16:43,039 --> 00:16:44,840
my mind, I know a lot of people are gonna

346
00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:47,320
like the over and like I do too, But if

347
00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:49,879
I'm deciding between the two, it's just a safer bet

348
00:16:49,919 --> 00:16:53,240
to take Arizona against the spread.

349
00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:58,320
Speaker 1: All right, all right, we'll move on Joe, and again,

350
00:16:58,519 --> 00:17:01,000
I'll probably talk about this a couple times throughout the show.

351
00:17:01,399 --> 00:17:02,320
Speaker 2: Saint John's Duke.

352
00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:05,799
Speaker 1: We did that one yesterday as well as yukon Michigan State.

353
00:17:05,839 --> 00:17:08,680
So if you're watching the show because it's labeled Sweet

354
00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:11,599
sixteen and you're looking for the East region, that is

355
00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:13,400
up on the Wager Talk to YouTube channel as part

356
00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:17,839
of Tuesday show. But also those individual games are already

357
00:17:17,839 --> 00:17:19,559
on the Wager Talk to YouTube channel as well, so

358
00:17:19,599 --> 00:17:22,920
you should be able to find those clipped and we

359
00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:25,920
did full breakdowns for those yesterday. All Right, I am

360
00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:30,039
going to transition to the Midwest because I want to

361
00:17:30,079 --> 00:17:33,319
go to the other so I said, don't do it

362
00:17:33,559 --> 00:17:34,319
on my notes.

363
00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:35,200
Speaker 2: You you just.

364
00:17:35,279 --> 00:17:38,119
Speaker 1: Confirmed that I'm probably gonna put a big black line

365
00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:40,359
through that one after we know, because I'm kind of

366
00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:43,200
with you there. But this one, you're gonna have to

367
00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:44,640
do a better job of talking to me off this one,

368
00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:46,799
because this one I have a little bit more conviction

369
00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:50,160
toward at least being like a more viable option.

370
00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:53,759
Speaker 2: And so let's go to the Midwest. Let's go to Chicago.

371
00:17:53,799 --> 00:17:54,960
Illinois the United Center.

372
00:17:55,839 --> 00:18:02,160
Speaker 1: My number likes Alabama here, and again I put don't

373
00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:05,599
do it because I guess I know what the bad

374
00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:08,240
could be here if if the threes aren't falling.

375
00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:12,000
Speaker 2: But this is the one where, like if you were

376
00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:12,519
to look at.

377
00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:18,960
Speaker 1: Those two games Bama, Michigan, Arkansas Arizona, like, to me,

378
00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:22,400
the more likely that a team just goes absolutely nuts

379
00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:24,480
and shoots their way to like a huge upset win

380
00:18:24,519 --> 00:18:28,319
would be this game. With Bama hoisting up, they might

381
00:18:28,319 --> 00:18:31,079
shoot fifty threes here, Matt, they might jack up fifty

382
00:18:31,079 --> 00:18:33,599
threes in this game. I think they'll think they'll shoot

383
00:18:33,599 --> 00:18:36,200
more than forty. My question to you is is that

384
00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:40,680
sort of crazy variance worth the shot getting ten points?

385
00:18:40,759 --> 00:18:43,000
And I might even sprinkle something on the money line

386
00:18:43,039 --> 00:18:44,759
just for the hell of it, just because if they

387
00:18:44,759 --> 00:18:47,799
are falling, I think they have a chance to win.

388
00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:50,680
Speaker 3: You're one hundred percent right, especially with that moneyline perspective.

389
00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,000
I think that you're right. Albais can take so many

390
00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:55,039
threes that they hit him at forty percent, like they

391
00:18:55,039 --> 00:18:57,960
did against Texas Tech, where they look completely unbelievable, Like

392
00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:00,200
look at that Texas Tech game. I actually I think

393
00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:03,319
that Texas Tech in a vacuum, especially without Aiden Halloway,

394
00:19:03,319 --> 00:19:05,599
even without JT. Top and I think Tech was the

395
00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:09,240
more talented team, and Texas Tech had made more free

396
00:19:09,279 --> 00:19:12,039
throws and they shot better from two point range. But

397
00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:15,240
Alabama shot forty five percent from three and Texas Tech

398
00:19:15,279 --> 00:19:19,000
shot sixteen percent from three. And if that happens against Michigan,

399
00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:22,039
Alabama will win. And you're one hundred percent right to

400
00:19:22,079 --> 00:19:23,920
the point where I just think taking a stab at

401
00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:26,079
the money line makes more sense in the spread, because

402
00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:29,759
if Alabama doesn't make forty percent of their threes, I

403
00:19:29,799 --> 00:19:32,359
don't see how they compete given they don't have Aiden Holloway.

404
00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:35,119
They're not good on the glass, they don't force any turnovers,

405
00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:38,680
and they fail too much. So with Michigan, I'm always

406
00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:41,200
worried about them against teams that pressure them, that send

407
00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:43,480
two to the ball, because they turn it over too

408
00:19:43,519 --> 00:19:47,039
much and they're just so dominant like physically that if

409
00:19:47,039 --> 00:19:48,960
you give them one on one matchups, they're going to

410
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:52,039
find the best one and take advantage at Daimara has

411
00:19:52,079 --> 00:19:54,680
a good matchup, he'll post you up. Yaxelendeborg has a

412
00:19:54,759 --> 00:19:57,240
small guy on him, he'll drive him downhill, if he

413
00:19:57,279 --> 00:19:59,000
has the big guy on him, he'll shoot over him.

414
00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:01,279
With the Alabama because of the way that they play

415
00:20:01,319 --> 00:20:03,440
with Nato, it's like they're never ever ever going to

416
00:20:03,519 --> 00:20:07,279
double team anything unless they absolutely have to. And because

417
00:20:07,279 --> 00:20:10,039
of that, Michigan's just gonna find the best matchup and

418
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:12,599
expose it. And there's gonna be good matchups because Alabama

419
00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:16,039
plays small and Michigan plays huge. So I think in

420
00:20:16,079 --> 00:20:19,400
a vacuum, like the number moving towards Michigan makes sense.

421
00:20:19,839 --> 00:20:22,920
At the same time, like you mentioned in a variance

422
00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:25,279
game where Alabama is going to take sixty five percent

423
00:20:25,279 --> 00:20:27,720
of their shots from three if they hit them again,

424
00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:30,559
I think that that BYU game last year where they

425
00:20:30,599 --> 00:20:32,920
had like the best three punching game in March Mannus history.

426
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:37,039
It's possible that happens, in which case you'll look really

427
00:20:37,079 --> 00:20:39,359
smart with an Alabama money line ticket, But I'm not

428
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:41,759
sure if there's as much value on the spread.

429
00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:46,079
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's That's ultimately what I sort of

430
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:50,559
came to in my head was it's, you know, what's

431
00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:52,960
what's the harm in taking a small crack at like

432
00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:56,960
a big money line double digit dog, Whereas like when

433
00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,279
you start to look at it against the minus one

434
00:20:59,319 --> 00:21:02,000
ten and Okay, now, yeah, like obviously you have a

435
00:21:02,079 --> 00:21:04,799
much better chance of hitting your bet on the ten

436
00:21:04,839 --> 00:21:08,680
and a half or the ten. But the flip side,

437
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:10,799
you know, it'll be easier to stomach if the threes

438
00:21:10,799 --> 00:21:13,480
aren't falling for Bama and they're quickly down twenty twenty

439
00:21:13,519 --> 00:21:16,559
five and the game is over, well, you just had

440
00:21:16,599 --> 00:21:18,480
a small play on the money line, Whereas it's like

441
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:20,839
you're sitting there with like a big bet on or

442
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:24,119
a standard bet on plus ten and they get down

443
00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:27,279
huge like that. I don't know if Bama even comes

444
00:21:27,319 --> 00:21:29,319
back from that, Like I think they have to. I

445
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:32,160
think they have to start maybe Bama first half a

446
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:34,480
little bit, because I think if they don't start hot

447
00:21:34,799 --> 00:21:37,119
and they and they start chasing big time, like they're

448
00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:41,640
chasing double digits early, that concerns me for Alabama.

449
00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:44,079
Speaker 3: Here, Yeah, for sure. And then you also just like

450
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:48,079
think about how some of these games have gone. I

451
00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:49,680
know you've been on the wrong side of a couple

452
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:53,039
of them with just like late game foul extension, Game

453
00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:55,119
seven with a minute and a half left and the

454
00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:56,240
next thing you know, it's thirteen.

455
00:21:56,480 --> 00:22:00,240
Speaker 2: So yeah, that is true, and it.

456
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:04,680
Speaker 1: It's it's worth pointing out, like I know, it's sort

457
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:06,359
of I get it gets beat to death at this

458
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,680
time in the year, but it's like it is worth

459
00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:12,920
pointing out that, Like it's the game extension in the

460
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:15,839
NCAA tournament when you're I mean your season's over. So

461
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:19,920
it's like, you know, it makes sense that everyone is

462
00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:23,880
going to foul until the very last second. Why wouldn't

463
00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:26,400
you maybe you know, why wouldn't you crazy?

464
00:22:27,559 --> 00:22:29,079
Speaker 3: Even in the n I t there's a world in

465
00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:32,599
which New Mexico doesn't cover, but Saint Joe's didn't let

466
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:35,119
them not cover with how many times they fouled down.

467
00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:38,759
Speaker 1: Town, right, yeah, yeah, no, it's a it's a really

468
00:22:38,799 --> 00:22:41,759
good point, and it has made it It has made

469
00:22:41,799 --> 00:22:45,319
it difficult to you know, you're taking a like that's

470
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:46,599
the thing, like if you take a big if you

471
00:22:46,599 --> 00:22:49,680
take a big under or any underdog, I mean I

472
00:22:49,519 --> 00:22:52,559
I guess we'll say a big underdog where you're in

473
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,000
you're in the extension range where it's like, Okay, if

474
00:22:56,039 --> 00:22:57,640
you're taking a two and a half point underdog, you

475
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,960
kind of are taking them with the expectation you're gonna win. Yes,

476
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:03,200
but you know, if you're taking a seven point dog,

477
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:05,440
an eight point dog, a ten point dog, like you

478
00:23:05,519 --> 00:23:07,880
are sort of banking on a close game. And there's

479
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:11,599
been quite a few scenario go back, even Arizona last

480
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:14,279
round getting up and over eleven and a half was

481
00:23:15,039 --> 00:23:18,440
I mean, there's there's been quite a few where they

482
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:23,200
the end result of who got the money maybe wasn't

483
00:23:23,519 --> 00:23:26,480
indicative of betting the right side or not.

484
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,799
Speaker 3: Now that said, and this is a whole other conversation

485
00:23:28,839 --> 00:23:31,119
I won't go too deep into. There are coaches and

486
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:33,799
teams that are good late game folaxtension teams and some

487
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:37,279
that are bad. And anecdotally, Nadeouts is a very very

488
00:23:37,319 --> 00:23:40,279
good one because a lot of teams make the mistake

489
00:23:40,319 --> 00:23:43,119
of going twos for twos as an issuet a quick layup,

490
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:45,119
then foul again. The team makes free throws and they're

491
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:47,640
just playing the same game. Alabama will never choot a

492
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:50,119
two of that situation. They're gonna shoot only threes, and

493
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:53,440
they make so many threes that it is the math.

494
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:55,559
The math is in their favor in the late game

495
00:23:55,599 --> 00:23:59,839
balax tension situation. So unlike some teams where it's like

496
00:24:00,279 --> 00:24:03,519
this makes no sense, there is a world where Michigan's

497
00:24:03,599 --> 00:24:05,640
up like twelve. Alabama does do the late game of

498
00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:08,160
fallextension and it turns into seven real quick, and then

499
00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:11,720
that's where it ends. Very anecdotal, but that is a

500
00:24:11,799 --> 00:24:13,680
team that I would want to be backing in a

501
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:15,200
late game balox ension situation.

502
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:18,640
Speaker 1: It's my final question to you here on this game

503
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,039
before we move on. I'm looking at the Odds logic

504
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:23,759
screen and I'm seeing quite a few books go to

505
00:24:23,759 --> 00:24:26,960
ten and a half here is the Is there a

506
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:31,039
number where you get involved with Alabama or you just I.

507
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:33,519
Speaker 3: Think it's too much variance. I don't think I want

508
00:24:33,559 --> 00:24:36,680
to take a chance, and like at this total, I

509
00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:39,359
do kind of lean under, but in the same realm

510
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:42,039
of not wanting to take the dog. It's just what

511
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:44,480
if Alabama makes forty five percent of their threes, then

512
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,319
the underlooks so stupid. If they hit twenty percent of

513
00:24:47,319 --> 00:24:49,640
their threeses, it's gonna fly under by twenty points. It's

514
00:24:49,799 --> 00:24:52,319
just it's one of those where it's like, maybe, if

515
00:24:52,319 --> 00:24:55,079
one thing's happening at halftime, do the other. Like even

516
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:57,480
though I was on New Mexico yesterday when Derek Simson

517
00:24:57,559 --> 00:24:59,640
hit four straight threes, at halftime, I was like, well,

518
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:01,480
there's too much value at in Mexico. I'm going to

519
00:25:01,519 --> 00:25:04,559
double down here. If one of the teams is read

520
00:25:04,559 --> 00:25:07,480
out from three, or one of the teams ice cold

521
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:09,519
from three, just try the other side at off time.

522
00:25:09,559 --> 00:25:10,920
It's probably gonna work out.

523
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:13,599
Speaker 2: All right.

524
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:15,680
Speaker 1: So I didn't set it up this way, but we

525
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:18,880
just kind of got we're halfway through. But for me,

526
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:21,960
those were my those were the three I had. I

527
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,480
had much lesser opinions on. So I think we're getting

528
00:25:24,519 --> 00:25:26,720
to the good ones, at least for me, the ones

529
00:25:26,759 --> 00:25:31,279
that I'm much more sort of like, I guess close

530
00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:34,440
to making a move in at this point, and of

531
00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:36,920
course we'll lock in. We've already decided the first leg

532
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:39,279
of the show Parlay, is going to be Matt's n

533
00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:42,039
I played for later tonight, which we'll recap at the end.

534
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:44,759
The other two legs will come from the Sweet sixteen.

535
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:48,079
So the games we talked about yesterday are fair game.

536
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:49,799
I know you and I both kind of, you know,

537
00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:52,240
sort of talked about Yukon being an option in that game.

538
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,759
I want to go to the nightcap on Thursday out

539
00:25:55,799 --> 00:25:59,160
in the Midwest. I'm sorry this is we're back on Friday. Sorry,

540
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,839
this is Friday. In the It doesn't really matter what

541
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,759
days because we're doing all the Sweet sixteen games, but

542
00:26:04,839 --> 00:26:10,119
this is Friday, this is the Midwest. Iowa State last

543
00:26:10,279 --> 00:26:15,559
round against Kentucky. Just from a from a market standpoint here,

544
00:26:15,599 --> 00:26:22,640
Matt Kentucky took respected money Saturday into Sunday, obviously tied

545
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:26,359
to Josh Jefferson, probably not playing right, and in the

546
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:29,160
spread came down from six. I think it got down

547
00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:30,920
as low as four and a half. There was a

548
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:34,000
little bit of buyback and then the quote unquote sharps

549
00:26:34,079 --> 00:26:36,359
or you know, I guess syndicates that would move the

550
00:26:36,759 --> 00:26:40,759
number slammed Kentucky pretty late, like to post in that game.

551
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:45,319
I could not get down with that. The reason was, well,

552
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:47,200
I keep going back, I for what.

553
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:47,519
Speaker 2: You know.

554
00:26:47,559 --> 00:26:49,480
Speaker 1: What I had in my head was you being like,

555
00:26:49,599 --> 00:26:52,960
is this team good at anything? Is Kentucky good at anything?

556
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:53,880
Speaker 3: I'm glad?

557
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,039
Speaker 2: I was like, man, yeah, it was in my head.

558
00:26:56,079 --> 00:26:56,839
It was stuck in my head.

559
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:58,839
Speaker 1: I was like, you know, they're not and they're probably

560
00:26:58,839 --> 00:27:00,880
going to turn the ball over a ton and Iowa

561
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:04,000
State will probably still win anyway. And that is pretty

562
00:27:04,079 --> 00:27:07,440
much exactly what happened, But boy, that first ten minutes

563
00:27:07,559 --> 00:27:11,759
or so didn't look great for Iowa State. And for me,

564
00:27:11,839 --> 00:27:16,480
it's like, I think Tennessee could force Iowa State into

565
00:27:16,559 --> 00:27:19,559
more minutes that look like that than Kentucky was able to.

566
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:22,319
And if Jefferson doesn't play here, which I think it's

567
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:26,559
crazy to think that he will, Tennessee is in this

568
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:28,440
game in my opinion, and that four and a half

569
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:32,039
starts to look quite appealing. So talk to me, Iowa State, Tennessee,

570
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:34,000
do you think the balls have a chance or is

571
00:27:34,039 --> 00:27:35,440
it too much Iowa State defense?

572
00:27:37,039 --> 00:27:39,720
Speaker 3: I think it's probably too much Iowa State defense, and

573
00:27:39,839 --> 00:27:44,880
specifically the way that Iowa State plays defense, in which

574
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:48,759
they're going to double any time you drive and anytime

575
00:27:48,799 --> 00:27:52,480
you set a screen, and your lead creator is going

576
00:27:52,519 --> 00:27:55,240
to have a nightmare day because he's going to be

577
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:57,880
doubled constantly and not be able to get off clean looks.

578
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:01,160
With Kentucky, they didn't even have a lead creator. They

579
00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:02,960
didn't have a point guard, and that's why the turnover

580
00:28:03,039 --> 00:28:05,200
rate was so high. So Tennessee is not going to

581
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:07,960
turn it over quite as much. But what is going

582
00:28:08,039 --> 00:28:10,640
to happen is Jacoby Gillespie is not going to get

583
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:13,839
a lot of shots off because not only is t. J.

584
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,400
Osilberger a smart defensive coach who's going to understand that

585
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:21,000
Jacoby Gillespie is Tennessee's only offense, their defense is built

586
00:28:21,079 --> 00:28:24,440
to take away the opposition's point guard. And Gillespie is

587
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:26,880
the reason why Tennessee's looked so good through two rounds.

588
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:30,480
He has fifty points in two games, fifteen assists to

589
00:28:30,559 --> 00:28:34,319
six turnovers. What happens when instead of being able to

590
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:37,680
take you fifteen shots or twenty one shots in the game,

591
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:39,920
he's going to take eight or nine shots, and they're

592
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:42,119
all going to be contested, and he's going to be

593
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:45,200
doubled the entire time he's on the floor. Is Nate

594
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:47,720
Aimant good enough to make up for that? Is anyone

595
00:28:47,759 --> 00:28:50,559
else on Tennessee actually a third option, because as of

596
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:53,720
right now, there isn't. And if there's one team left

597
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:55,680
in the field, I don't want to see have to

598
00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:58,440
go down their pecking order of scoring options, it's Tennessee.

599
00:28:58,839 --> 00:29:01,799
And that's what Iowa State does better than any team

600
00:29:01,839 --> 00:29:04,559
in the country. So if you're telling me that this

601
00:29:04,759 --> 00:29:09,160
is you know, even if it's Josh Jefferson lists Iowa State.

602
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:11,240
I just don't see a Tennessee scorers.

603
00:29:13,359 --> 00:29:17,079
Speaker 1: So I would be really kicking myself if I took

604
00:29:17,119 --> 00:29:19,799
Tennessee and it played out the way that you're talking about,

605
00:29:19,839 --> 00:29:24,000
because I've probably said on this show, God, you could

606
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:26,759
go back to the game that Tennessee lost up here

607
00:29:26,759 --> 00:29:30,640
at the Dome. I think since that night, I was like, where,

608
00:29:31,519 --> 00:29:32,960
like what is this offense?

609
00:29:33,039 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 2: Right?

610
00:29:33,279 --> 00:29:36,519
Speaker 1: Like, you have two guys and outside of Geleepsi at

611
00:29:36,519 --> 00:29:40,440
the men, you really don't have like any consistent scorers.

612
00:29:41,279 --> 00:29:43,000
And I've sort of like that's sort of been my

613
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:46,440
stance all year. So I think for me, it's like

614
00:29:46,519 --> 00:29:49,319
I had it in my head. Okay, after Iowa State

615
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:53,920
smashes Kentucky because they probably will, I'll look to oppose

616
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:56,559
them in the next round. But I would have probably

617
00:29:56,640 --> 00:30:00,480
been better served getting Virginia here than Tennessee, I think,

618
00:30:00,559 --> 00:30:03,160
for like from a matchup standpoint. And so that is

619
00:30:03,279 --> 00:30:06,119
ultimately what probably keeps me off is there is the

620
00:30:06,119 --> 00:30:09,559
fact that like I've said that way too many times

621
00:30:09,599 --> 00:30:11,839
on the show to then come on here and go

622
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:15,839
against and go against it, and and yeah, I think

623
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:19,279
you need like Geleepsy twenty one, twenty nine twenty one

624
00:30:19,319 --> 00:30:22,039
his last three games, He's played awesome. Part of my

625
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:25,480
a big criticism for me with Tennessee earlier this year

626
00:30:25,519 --> 00:30:28,359
was that he was not playing up to the level

627
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:32,160
of like the Power Conference sort of starguard. But he's

628
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:36,119
he's definitely done that now. But yeah, the supporting cast

629
00:30:36,119 --> 00:30:38,160
still leaves a lot to be desired. You probably need

630
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:42,799
a generational rebounding performance from Tennessee for them to win

631
00:30:42,839 --> 00:30:45,279
this game. As we as we talk it out, I'm like, Oh,

632
00:30:45,319 --> 00:30:48,559
they're gonna need to get every rebound second chance points.

633
00:30:48,559 --> 00:30:51,119
And Gelopsy's still probably gonna need to have his fourth

634
00:30:51,119 --> 00:30:54,319
straight game of twenty plus for Tennessee to win this game.

635
00:30:54,839 --> 00:30:57,079
Speaker 3: And I don't I don't see your rold In Burgole's

636
00:30:57,079 --> 00:30:59,319
be against twenty points unless it takes some twenty shots

637
00:30:59,319 --> 00:31:02,799
to get there, which I would say. The way that

638
00:31:02,839 --> 00:31:05,079
I'm looking at this game is I'm gonna wait. I'm

639
00:31:05,079 --> 00:31:07,319
not gonna touch it until we know about Joshua Jefferson.

640
00:31:07,359 --> 00:31:10,680
I agree, I don't think he's gonna play, but he might,

641
00:31:11,079 --> 00:31:15,480
and I my perspective is if Jefferson plays, I will

642
00:31:15,519 --> 00:31:18,839
take Iowa State. And if Jefferson doesn't play, I will

643
00:31:18,839 --> 00:31:22,119
take under because I don't want to take Tennessee, but

644
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:25,200
I don't want to take Iowa State without Jefferson. I

645
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:28,680
think that without Jefferson, Iowa State's offense is in a

646
00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:31,920
bigger problem than its defense, especially against a team that

647
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:34,240
doesn't turn it over too too much and has a

648
00:31:34,279 --> 00:31:38,640
really good guard play. So I would go under if

649
00:31:38,799 --> 00:31:39,799
Jefferson is out.

650
00:31:41,079 --> 00:31:44,720
Speaker 1: Question for you, what, how do you think he this

651
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:46,799
number four and a half? Does that have him in

652
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:48,119
or out in your opinion?

653
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 3: Without Jefferson?

654
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:54,519
Speaker 1: Like, are they pricing him in or out with the

655
00:31:55,319 --> 00:31:57,160
being four or four and a half in your opinion?

656
00:31:57,839 --> 00:32:01,039
Speaker 3: I think they're pricing him in because you saw that

657
00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:04,440
Kentucky number move three points off, and like, yeah, Iowa

658
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:07,519
State played pretty well, but I wouldn't say they played

659
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:10,720
so well that it makes the you know, the market

660
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:13,480
feel like it's a three point you know, I guess

661
00:32:13,519 --> 00:32:17,759
buyback on Jefferson less Iowa State. So I would have

662
00:32:17,839 --> 00:32:20,759
to assume that if they thought for sure Jefferson wasn't

663
00:32:20,799 --> 00:32:22,839
gonna play, this would not be above can bomb.

664
00:32:24,599 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like, I see, that's the thing. I think.

665
00:32:27,279 --> 00:32:29,880
Speaker 1: I think he's priced in there as well. And so

666
00:32:31,039 --> 00:32:33,720
when I refer to my my number, I was making

667
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:36,319
a number with him out, and so that's that's that's

668
00:32:36,359 --> 00:32:38,400
why I showed a little bit of value on the

669
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:43,079
Tennessee side because my Iowa State minus two point four

670
00:32:44,119 --> 00:32:46,359
was with him out. So yeah, I and again I

671
00:32:46,359 --> 00:32:48,799
don't think he's gonna, like, if you want my personal

672
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:51,119
gut feeling, I don't think he's gonna play me too.

673
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:56,240
But so again, I mean, if you're just kind of

674
00:32:56,319 --> 00:32:59,240
like hunting some value and you want to, like you

675
00:32:59,279 --> 00:33:00,759
want to take a four and a half with the

676
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:03,200
with the thought process that okay, I'll just I'll try

677
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:05,960
to middle this. I'll try to come back later once

678
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:09,480
he's ruled out and Tennessee gets slammed and then just

679
00:33:09,519 --> 00:33:14,079
take Iowa state that you could do that. But yeah,

680
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:16,839
I mean again that's that I think that personally is

681
00:33:16,839 --> 00:33:21,400
why I gravitate towards Tennessee, thinking that, oh that four

682
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:24,240
and a half number is gonna be gonna probably be value.

683
00:33:24,559 --> 00:33:27,039
But then again a lot of people had good numbers

684
00:33:27,079 --> 00:33:31,240
with Kentucky on Sunday over on Sunday, and uh didn't matter.

685
00:33:31,839 --> 00:33:33,920
You're six with Kentucky did not matter.

686
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:36,119
Speaker 3: So I just think if you're gonna give me like

687
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:38,839
at the end of the day, this is scheme versus players,

688
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:42,680
because Iowa State is the better scheme, especially defensively, but

689
00:33:43,799 --> 00:33:46,920
Tennessee is the two most in theory talented offensive players

690
00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:49,960
in Gillespian aim At, I just trust Iowa State to

691
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:52,359
be able to scheme those two guys out and make

692
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:53,720
everyone else on Tennessee be.

693
00:33:56,839 --> 00:33:57,279
Speaker 2: All right.

694
00:33:57,359 --> 00:34:00,240
Speaker 1: We have we have one region left, and for me,

695
00:34:00,519 --> 00:34:04,480
it is from a betting standpoint, I think this is

696
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:08,159
the most in not the most interesting, but certainly like

697
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:12,239
probably the most of like where I'm I'm leaning toward,

698
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:14,400
well aside from the games we talked about the other day,

699
00:34:15,079 --> 00:34:19,000
where I'm leaning toward probably having action, and so this

700
00:34:19,039 --> 00:34:21,519
one has moved a little bit, which which might keep

701
00:34:21,519 --> 00:34:21,920
me off.

702
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:24,119
Speaker 2: But let's start with Iowa Nebraska.

703
00:34:24,159 --> 00:34:27,760
Speaker 1: We are now in Houston where the Cougars later that

704
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:29,639
evening will have a home game or kind of a

705
00:34:29,679 --> 00:34:33,840
home game Toyota Center. But we're gonna start with Big

706
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:38,960
ten battle first, Nebraska Iowa. These teams have played each other,

707
00:34:39,599 --> 00:34:43,920
and my initial reaction was that two and a half

708
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:46,800
with Iowa kind of looks nice. I made Iowa a

709
00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:50,320
small favorite on the number. These teams know each other well.

710
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:53,199
I think I don't know if it's possible for Ben

711
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:55,079
McCollum to have a better game plan than he did

712
00:34:55,079 --> 00:35:00,199
against Florida, but I could see him game planning for Nebraska.

713
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:02,920
He's seen him before, So talk to me about this one.

714
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:04,880
I made Iowa a point and a half favorite. It

715
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:07,039
looks like the market is starting to agree with me.

716
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:09,079
Where are you at on Iowa Nebraska?

717
00:35:10,199 --> 00:35:14,239
Speaker 3: I'm the complete other way. Actually, I make Nebraska two

718
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:17,360
possession favorite, well slightly over one possession favorite.

719
00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:17,760
Speaker 2: I'm glad.

720
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:19,400
Speaker 1: I don't want to take a bad number, so I'm

721
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:20,639
happy to hear that go ahead.

722
00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 3: I think that Ben McCollum, I think this number moving

723
00:35:28,519 --> 00:35:31,840
towards Iowa is just the market believing in Ben McCollum.

724
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:36,639
And Ben McCollum's amazing But what Ben McCollum's amazing at

725
00:35:37,119 --> 00:35:40,360
is dictating the tempo and dictating the game in the

726
00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:43,360
way that he wants to play it. Florida was a

727
00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:48,000
polar opposite team as Iowa, and because of that, because

728
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:50,840
Ben McCollum is so great at making you play his way,

729
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:55,639
Florida was so uncomfortable playing Iowa style, not only is

730
00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:59,159
Nebraska comfortable playing Iowa's style, but they've done it twice

731
00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:04,320
and the way that those two games played out so differently. Yes,

732
00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:09,639
Iowa took Nebraska to overtime at at Nebraska, but Nebraska

733
00:36:09,679 --> 00:36:12,840
was leading the entire game, was up double digits late,

734
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:15,119
and Iowa made a super late comeback to send it

735
00:36:15,119 --> 00:36:17,519
to overtime and then couldn't hang on. But the most

736
00:36:17,519 --> 00:36:20,920
important fact about that second game is that Iowa turned

737
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:24,360
it over nineteen times. I under I on Earth the

738
00:36:24,599 --> 00:36:29,519
very very weird stat I put together the preview for

739
00:36:29,559 --> 00:36:31,760
the South Region at Basket Under review, I would go

740
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:35,159
check out this is it makes no sense, but Iowa's

741
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:38,679
two to nine against Power Conference teams when they have

742
00:36:38,679 --> 00:36:40,960
an assist rate over fifty eight percent. That means more

743
00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:43,119
than fifty eight percent of their baskets are assisted on.

744
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:47,280
And that means they're thirteen and two against Power Conference

745
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:50,559
teams and their assist rate is lower than fifty eight percent,

746
00:36:50,599 --> 00:36:54,719
which means Iowa is better when they get fewer assists,

747
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:57,880
which in theory makes absolutely no sense. But you know

748
00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:00,280
what it means. When they get fewer assists, in means

749
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:03,920
more Bennett starts and more Bennett start shots is better

750
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:06,199
for Iowa. Even in a game where he goes oh

751
00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:08,840
of nine from three. You want as many Bennett start

752
00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:12,239
shots as possible. I don't think it's a coincidence that

753
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:16,760
in Iowa's win over Nebraska, Bennett Starts took twenty two

754
00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:21,599
shots and seven free throws. In their loss against Nebraska,

755
00:37:21,679 --> 00:37:24,920
he took ten shots and two free throws, less than

756
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:26,920
half the shots and less than half the free throws.

757
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:33,400
Nebraska's entire scheme is no isolation, double everything, no post ups,

758
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:37,320
no straight line drives. Make the others beat you, and

759
00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:42,639
Iowa's others aren't good. Bennett starts didn't get doubled against

760
00:37:42,639 --> 00:37:45,920
Florida because Florida doesn't double anything. Nebraska will double everything.

761
00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:49,760
And I will take Nebraska being able to play their way,

762
00:37:50,159 --> 00:37:53,960
being able to take out Bennett starts, and not getting

763
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:57,159
severely out coached by Ben McCollum, because yes, Ben McCollum

764
00:37:57,239 --> 00:38:01,400
does know Nebraska, but Nebraska knows Ben mccaffy, and that

765
00:38:01,519 --> 00:38:04,800
takes away that coaching edge in Nebraska is the better team.

766
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:06,519
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's where you know.

767
00:38:06,599 --> 00:38:08,679
Speaker 1: That's as you're as you're speaking, that's kind of what

768
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:11,400
you know I'm looking down at my notes, and I

769
00:38:11,519 --> 00:38:15,960
noted just how slow Iowa got Florida to play in

770
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:19,199
that game, which you know, sort of how slow, and

771
00:38:19,199 --> 00:38:22,480
how how they are able to like neutralize Florida's biggest advantage,

772
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:24,800
which is which is of course, their front court. And

773
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:27,760
it does seem like it's gonna be much harder to

774
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:31,840
do that against Nebraska the way Nebraska plays. So I

775
00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:34,679
purposely Matt, you know, so first of all, yes, Matt,

776
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:36,800
you can find him on his Twitter handle, which is

777
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:39,320
on your screen, but also at Basket Under Review.

778
00:38:39,679 --> 00:38:41,679
Speaker 2: I've just I mean, if you've.

779
00:38:41,559 --> 00:38:44,760
Speaker 1: Watched the show, I've I've raved about the Basket Under

780
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:50,239
Review site all year. There's still I mean just going over.

781
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:51,840
I think it's what it's like ten bucks a month

782
00:38:52,199 --> 00:38:55,119
to even just get the uh even just get get

783
00:38:55,159 --> 00:38:57,239
it for March, just to get all the stuff they're

784
00:38:57,239 --> 00:38:59,320
gonna have on the Sweet sixteen Elitate and Final four

785
00:39:00,119 --> 00:39:04,320
is massive. And I purposely did not read your preview yet,

786
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:06,440
I said, I don't want to, and that's why I

787
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:10,199
didn't want to. I didn't want to, like subliminately, you know,

788
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:14,719
I purposely didn't read your preview before the show because

789
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:17,360
I wanted to make sure if we had differing opinions,

790
00:39:17,599 --> 00:39:18,880
it came out on the show, and I have to

791
00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:21,880
be on. I have to say this conversation over the

792
00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:24,320
last hour has been very, very helpful to me because

793
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:26,920
I'm sitting here, like, man, I got an awfully long

794
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,559
list of sweet sixteen games I like, and you know,

795
00:39:30,039 --> 00:39:33,239
I know it's not smart to go into a board

796
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:35,800
of eight games and bet six of them or whatever.

797
00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:36,400
Speaker 2: Right like that.

798
00:39:36,519 --> 00:39:38,559
Speaker 1: The market is pretty efficient at this point in time,

799
00:39:38,599 --> 00:39:41,880
and I'm slowly talking myself off of some of these

800
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:44,840
and the thing is, like this one, they kind of

801
00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:46,760
did it for me. I would have only played this

802
00:39:46,800 --> 00:39:48,800
at two and a half for Iowa. Now that it's

803
00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:51,000
pretty much one and a half everywhere, I think you

804
00:39:51,119 --> 00:39:51,760
kind of missed your.

805
00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:55,000
Speaker 2: Chance for Iowa. But Nebraska's probably gonna take that.

806
00:39:55,119 --> 00:39:57,719
Speaker 1: I could see someone coming in betting Nebraska, and I

807
00:39:57,800 --> 00:39:59,960
think you'll have a shot at two and a hal

808
00:40:00,039 --> 00:40:02,360
half with Iowa. Do you think Iowa gets to three

809
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:05,159
at any point? Do you think Nebraska takes that much money?

810
00:40:05,639 --> 00:40:07,719
Speaker 3: I don't think that. With the way that the market

811
00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:09,760
works like this late in the season, with this much

812
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:11,880
action on games, it's gonna move that much more after

813
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:15,400
having already moved one way, Like I wouldn't expect so

814
00:40:15,519 --> 00:40:18,800
much bounce back with a market like the Sweet sixteen.

815
00:40:19,639 --> 00:40:22,000
I think that the market has made itself known. They

816
00:40:22,039 --> 00:40:25,639
know what they want and that's what they're gonna get.

817
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:29,280
The market prefers Iowa is what it is at this point.

818
00:40:29,599 --> 00:40:35,599
I understand, But I just Iowa had a really bad

819
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:38,159
end to their season. They lost to Penn State in Maryland.

820
00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:42,400
They were not good, and they lost to Ohio State

821
00:40:42,719 --> 00:40:45,400
in the conference tournament. And then you get a Clemson

822
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:47,440
team that I think was a very good matchup because

823
00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:50,119
Clemson needs to slow teams down, and Iowa was happy

824
00:40:50,159 --> 00:40:52,400
with that. They played the slowest game in the entire season.

825
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:55,079
And then you get Florida and they slowed Florida down

826
00:40:55,119 --> 00:40:59,599
to basically nothing and just completely made them uncomfortable. This

827
00:40:59,639 --> 00:41:03,719
is not going to make Nebraska uncomfortable. Nebraska will be

828
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:07,639
completely fine here. This is a Big Ten game. Nebraska

829
00:41:08,159 --> 00:41:10,519
went fifteen and five in the Big Ten. Like this

830
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:12,960
is hard for them. This is their element and they're

831
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:16,440
gonna have more fans because we've seen Nebraska's traveling like crazy.

832
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:21,159
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, No, Nebraska, they will uh this game

833
00:41:21,199 --> 00:41:25,639
being even in even in Houston, they'll take I would

834
00:41:25,679 --> 00:41:27,480
imagine it's a lot of Nebraska fans.

835
00:41:27,519 --> 00:41:31,119
Speaker 2: You're right, they travel extreme. You travel better than Iowa

836
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:35,840
for sure. Yeah, yeah there was.

837
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:38,039
Speaker 1: I mean, I'll tell you what when when when the

838
00:41:38,079 --> 00:41:40,920
Iowa girls came with Caitlin Clark to Albany, there was

839
00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:42,760
all Iowa fans. They might they might have just been

840
00:41:42,800 --> 00:41:45,679
Albany natives being Iowa fans because I was like, man, man,

841
00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:47,679
this is they really travel here?

842
00:41:48,039 --> 00:41:52,519
Speaker 2: And yeah, that's that's an interesting point. And and it is.

843
00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:57,320
Speaker 1: A perfect, perfect segue into the final game because you

844
00:41:57,440 --> 00:41:59,239
got to think that the Toyota Center is going to

845
00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:01,159
be all lot of Houston fans.

846
00:42:01,599 --> 00:42:02,039
Speaker 2: Houston.

847
00:42:02,079 --> 00:42:05,559
Speaker 1: What a gift for this team Matt right in their backyard,

848
00:42:05,599 --> 00:42:06,719
right in their own city.

849
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:09,000
Speaker 2: I don't I don't know that Houston really earned that

850
00:42:09,159 --> 00:42:09,840
this year.

851
00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:13,400
Speaker 1: The ability to have a like basically a home game

852
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:16,920
in the Sweet sixteen, in the Elite eight. But Houston

853
00:42:17,400 --> 00:42:21,880
will play this game in Houston against Illinois. And this

854
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:26,039
is one my number loves Houston here showing it is.

855
00:42:26,159 --> 00:42:30,880
I am like like six and a half with Houston,

856
00:42:31,199 --> 00:42:34,599
which is crazy to me, and again it's hard to

857
00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:36,480
you know, that's with me trying to wait in some

858
00:42:36,599 --> 00:42:39,239
home court, which I do think is maybe worth You know,

859
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:40,239
it's not the for Tita Center.

860
00:42:40,239 --> 00:42:42,800
Speaker 2: You're not gonna give them that kind of home court edge.

861
00:42:42,960 --> 00:42:45,119
Speaker 1: But they're right in their home city, like you certainly

862
00:42:45,119 --> 00:42:46,880
got to bump them a little bit for home court.

863
00:42:48,159 --> 00:42:50,039
The problem is, and I'll go back to a point

864
00:42:50,039 --> 00:42:52,239
that I made regarding Houston and let you kind of

865
00:42:52,280 --> 00:42:56,679
take it from there. Defensively not the team they've been

866
00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:58,159
in the past couple of years. I think that's what

867
00:42:58,199 --> 00:43:02,639
I've noted with Houston at times where they just aren't

868
00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:06,519
that like crazy, like going to stop you at all

869
00:43:06,559 --> 00:43:10,039
costs and like totally just wipe you out defensively type team.

870
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:12,760
And I guess I noted that could be an issue

871
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:16,079
here against Illinois, But I still see some pass to

872
00:43:16,159 --> 00:43:17,239
victory here for Houston.

873
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:18,519
Speaker 2: So talk to me about this one.

874
00:43:18,639 --> 00:43:22,199
Speaker 1: Who do you like Illinois Houston at the Toyota Center

875
00:43:22,280 --> 00:43:23,320
in Houston's backyard.

876
00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:26,679
Speaker 3: We're just not agreeing today. We're really not agreeing today.

877
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:31,679
I'm an Illinois. Yes, home court a bit of a thing,

878
00:43:32,079 --> 00:43:35,159
doesn't not that it really means much but Houston only

879
00:43:35,199 --> 00:43:39,000
has This is insane. In the last nine seasons that

880
00:43:39,079 --> 00:43:43,039
Houston has nine losses in the city of Houston, one

881
00:43:43,159 --> 00:43:45,800
loss averaged per year in the city of Houston. And

882
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:48,440
I say that because this game isn't at home, it's

883
00:43:48,480 --> 00:43:52,000
in Houston. The Cougar is actually zero to one at

884
00:43:52,039 --> 00:43:55,000
the Toyota Center over that stretch, but that doesn't mean anything.

885
00:43:55,039 --> 00:43:58,599
But they did lose at the Toyota Center to Auburn

886
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:01,599
last year two Final fourteen teams. Auburn got the best

887
00:44:01,599 --> 00:44:05,760
of Houston there. The thing with Houston is their defense

888
00:44:05,880 --> 00:44:08,199
is number four in ken Bound. Their defense is very good,

889
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:13,960
but it's very, very mediocre against the best offenses they've played.

890
00:44:14,239 --> 00:44:18,280
Let me tell you their seven worst defensive performances this

891
00:44:18,360 --> 00:44:20,440
year by a wide margin. It's like those seven and

892
00:44:20,480 --> 00:44:27,800
then a huge gap BYU Arizona, Arkansas, Iowa State, Arizona, Tennessee,

893
00:44:28,280 --> 00:44:31,880
Texas Tech, AKA, all the best teams they've played. Yeah,

894
00:44:32,519 --> 00:44:34,599
and then you go up all their best performances. It's

895
00:44:34,639 --> 00:44:37,760
all of their by games. It's West Virginia, it's Kansas,

896
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:41,400
it's Baylor, it's all of the inferior offenses they've played.

897
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:45,639
I like the over as well. I like Illinois, and

898
00:44:45,719 --> 00:44:48,840
I like the over for one, Houston's defense is going

899
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:52,119
to be overrated against good defenses because their defensive rating

900
00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:55,280
is what it is, and the splits between bad offenses

901
00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:57,559
and good offenses is as drastic as you'll see in

902
00:44:57,559 --> 00:45:00,360
the country. So given to get Illinois the number two

903
00:45:00,440 --> 00:45:03,960
offensive efficiency team in the entire country, I think they're

904
00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:06,480
gonna score fine here. But the biggest difference in this

905
00:45:06,559 --> 00:45:11,239
game for me is Illinois's passing in their shot volume.

906
00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:14,960
Houston gets a ton of turnovers and they get a

907
00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:18,360
ton of offensive rebounds, but Illinois never turns it over

908
00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:21,519
and Illinois doesn't allow offensive rebounds, and they're the tallest

909
00:45:21,519 --> 00:45:23,119
team in the country, so it's very hard to get

910
00:45:23,159 --> 00:45:27,679
rebounds over them. If Houston cannot get steals and if

911
00:45:28,039 --> 00:45:31,480
Houston cannot get offensive rebounds, then this is a game

912
00:45:31,639 --> 00:45:34,719
of shot making, and I am going to take Illinois

913
00:45:34,719 --> 00:45:40,000
offense with their analytically minded shot profile and their plethora

914
00:45:40,079 --> 00:45:44,039
of options over Houston's dribble pull up offense every day.

915
00:45:44,320 --> 00:45:47,000
I like Houston that they can get steels and offensive rebounds,

916
00:45:47,039 --> 00:45:49,280
but they're not gonna get that in this game. And

917
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:52,320
because they're not gonna get that. If you're taking Houston,

918
00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:54,719
you're basically saying, I think Houston's gonna be better at

919
00:45:54,719 --> 00:45:57,679
making shots than Illinois, isn't. I just don't think that's correct.

920
00:45:59,400 --> 00:46:02,400
Speaker 1: So I can find some absolutely can find some merit

921
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:04,760
in the over. Colin Gregory says, I like the over

922
00:46:05,079 --> 00:46:06,880
one thirty nine and a half. I do think the

923
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:12,119
I think Houston's gonna get the shots that they're they're

924
00:46:12,159 --> 00:46:14,920
able to make. Like you know, Kingston Flemings probably gets

925
00:46:15,239 --> 00:46:17,000
quite a few good mid range looks and if he

926
00:46:17,039 --> 00:46:19,039
can knock them down, he can absolutely keep them in

927
00:46:19,039 --> 00:46:21,360
this game. Yes, I guess what I was, you know,

928
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:24,159
because I kind of was shocked. I guess when I

929
00:46:24,239 --> 00:46:28,000
ran the numbers and I'm like, eh, you're probably you're

930
00:46:28,039 --> 00:46:30,360
probably too far off. Like making Houston that big of

931
00:46:30,400 --> 00:46:34,320
a favorite doesn't really make sense. But like I do

932
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:37,039
think Houston's gonna be able to score more maybe more points,

933
00:46:37,039 --> 00:46:39,960
Like Illinois is not going to wipe out Houston in

934
00:46:40,000 --> 00:46:43,239
my opinion in this game. From a so, I'm kind

935
00:46:43,239 --> 00:46:45,639
of with Colin on the over. I could see that

936
00:46:45,760 --> 00:46:49,960
over one thirty nine and a half there too. Yeah,

937
00:46:50,039 --> 00:46:53,360
I will say this, like I said, I'm I'm I'm glad,

938
00:46:53,800 --> 00:46:56,599
you know I I was. I'm more of a I

939
00:46:56,800 --> 00:46:58,679
tend to be more selective. I'm not like a like

940
00:46:58,719 --> 00:47:01,800
a board spray type better. And so the fact that

941
00:47:01,880 --> 00:47:04,239
like I came in with this long list of opinions,

942
00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:06,440
now I have a lot to think about, So that

943
00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:10,119
that is like, I'm actually happy that we had some

944
00:47:10,199 --> 00:47:12,199
disagreement because I got to go back and say, all right,

945
00:47:12,719 --> 00:47:15,320
And that's the thing. I think that's anyone because this

946
00:47:15,360 --> 00:47:16,840
is still a you know, more of a betting show

947
00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:21,519
than anything like For me, it's always challenging to sort

948
00:47:21,559 --> 00:47:25,800
of take your number and then apply it in the

949
00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:28,880
context of like the tournament, you're all, you're on all,

950
00:47:29,000 --> 00:47:29,800
it's always.

951
00:47:29,480 --> 00:47:30,400
Speaker 2: It's a neutral floor.

952
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:34,360
Speaker 1: Now there's so much more public money in the market

953
00:47:34,400 --> 00:47:36,880
than there is during the regular season, so books have

954
00:47:36,960 --> 00:47:40,079
to make a number anticipating how the masses are going

955
00:47:40,159 --> 00:47:42,519
to bet, where they don't have to do that as

956
00:47:42,599 --> 00:47:45,079
much during the regular season. Maybe they have to do

957
00:47:45,119 --> 00:47:47,360
it in the big, big games, but typically not going

958
00:47:47,400 --> 00:47:50,079
to do it on like the majority of the games

959
00:47:50,079 --> 00:47:53,239
that I would be betting, which is probably not the

960
00:47:53,280 --> 00:47:56,280
sort of like biggest game on the board. So yeah,

961
00:47:56,320 --> 00:48:02,480
I think that's an interesting point. And these games should

962
00:48:02,559 --> 00:48:04,400
be really tough to bet, let's put it that way.

963
00:48:04,920 --> 00:48:08,440
The Sweet sixteen, any any game the rest of the

964
00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:12,079
way should be very difficult to like find a big

965
00:48:12,119 --> 00:48:12,719
time edge.

966
00:48:12,760 --> 00:48:14,960
Speaker 2: So I think it's it's worked out. Well.

967
00:48:15,920 --> 00:48:19,679
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm very randomly had an I think sort of

968
00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:24,519
randomly had an amazing betting runs since March Madness started.

969
00:48:25,679 --> 00:48:28,079
Some of that is luck, and I bet way too much.

970
00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:31,920
Speaker 1: I mean, you were calling you, you were calling final

971
00:48:31,960 --> 00:48:33,280
scores on Twitter over the weekend.

972
00:48:33,519 --> 00:48:34,079
Speaker 2: Just look it up.

973
00:48:34,119 --> 00:48:37,480
Speaker 3: Now, I've made sixty two wagers in selection Sunday. That's

974
00:48:37,519 --> 00:48:39,039
too many.

975
00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:41,159
Speaker 2: Wait, that's pretty awesome though.

976
00:48:41,199 --> 00:48:43,119
Speaker 1: Hey, I mean listen, some of them are are in

977
00:48:43,159 --> 00:48:45,320
the n I, so you know there's probably a little

978
00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:47,360
bit of a bigger edge there. Hey, we get the

979
00:48:47,360 --> 00:48:49,960
Crown coming up next week, quick promo. We will be

980
00:48:50,039 --> 00:48:53,400
doing shows. I believe Rob Bino will be back. We

981
00:48:53,440 --> 00:48:57,039
will have a Crown preview show, so that'll be coming

982
00:48:57,119 --> 00:49:01,199
up next week. So hey, listen, three years ago, one

983
00:49:01,239 --> 00:49:03,280
of the best, one of the best betting runs I

984
00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:07,800
ever had occurred during March Madness. Sometimes, I mean, and

985
00:49:07,840 --> 00:49:09,559
then if once you see if you're seeing the ball

986
00:49:09,599 --> 00:49:11,840
go through, you're hitting your shot, you might as well

987
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:14,280
just keep firing, right You're not gonna get to again

988
00:49:14,320 --> 00:49:18,400
until November, so there's no you know, might as well

989
00:49:18,480 --> 00:49:20,920
unload the clip right now if they're if they're falling

990
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:24,920
for you. So with that being said, Matt, we are

991
00:49:25,039 --> 00:49:31,039
using your total from yesterday, since you know the parlay yesterday. Hey, actually,

992
00:49:31,079 --> 00:49:33,400
maybe you do have action on your parlay yesterday. That's

993
00:49:33,400 --> 00:49:35,599
great if you got four or four and a half

994
00:49:35,639 --> 00:49:38,159
with Wichita State. But for the sake of the show,

995
00:49:38,199 --> 00:49:40,440
we're gonna count yesterday's as a loss because when we

996
00:49:40,440 --> 00:49:42,960
were on the show, Wichita was still three and a half.

997
00:49:43,639 --> 00:49:47,280
And so well, we will open the three teamer with

998
00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:50,159
your game for tonight. So if you are looking for

999
00:49:50,199 --> 00:49:54,239
a bet for tonight, we did a whole show yesterday

1000
00:49:54,239 --> 00:49:56,639
on the n I T. We've already broke these games down,

1001
00:49:57,000 --> 00:50:00,199
but we are going to use Matt's and I T play,

1002
00:50:00,719 --> 00:50:04,360
which is gonna be Illinois State dayton Now, my question

1003
00:50:04,440 --> 00:50:07,400
to you is this, it's moved a little bit since yesterday.

1004
00:50:07,599 --> 00:50:10,000
Can we go my can we go over one forty?

1005
00:50:10,159 --> 00:50:12,119
Is that still okay for that one?

1006
00:50:12,559 --> 00:50:12,840
Speaker 3: Yeah?

1007
00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:18,039
Speaker 1: So we're gonna go Illinois State Daton over one forty

1008
00:50:18,079 --> 00:50:21,039
as leg number one. That what is your best bet

1009
00:50:21,039 --> 00:50:23,840
of the Sweet sixteen? Give us leg number.

1010
00:50:23,599 --> 00:50:26,159
Speaker 3: Two right here, it's on the screen right now.

1011
00:50:27,800 --> 00:50:30,280
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, so we're going right back to that.

1012
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:32,960
So we got two totals in here, So that is

1013
00:50:33,000 --> 00:50:40,119
gonna be over one thirty nine and a half Illinois Houston. Yeah,

1014
00:50:40,159 --> 00:50:42,480
I mean, just we we just talked about that game,

1015
00:50:42,519 --> 00:50:47,480
and I'm looking at there's one forties out there, but yeah,

1016
00:50:47,519 --> 00:50:49,280
I think one thirty nine and a half. There's still

1017
00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:52,599
enough of them where that's a that's a fair number

1018
00:50:52,599 --> 00:50:56,840
for that game. So two totals, and guess what, even

1019
00:50:56,880 --> 00:51:00,199
though we disagreed a lot on this show today, we're

1020
00:51:00,239 --> 00:51:02,639
probably gonna agree on my leg because I am going

1021
00:51:03,000 --> 00:51:06,360
back to yesterday's show and I'm gonna use Yukon on

1022
00:51:06,480 --> 00:51:09,239
the money line as the third leg of our parlay.

1023
00:51:10,400 --> 00:51:14,599
We broke this game down completely. It's such a good

1024
00:51:14,639 --> 00:51:18,039
matchup for Yukon. I wore my Yukon jacket. I know

1025
00:51:18,159 --> 00:51:20,800
Joey Cheese is watching this show. I know he's like,

1026
00:51:21,920 --> 00:51:26,239
I couldn't have been more anti Yukon the past couple weeks.

1027
00:51:26,239 --> 00:51:28,760
But you know what, that is the great part about

1028
00:51:28,800 --> 00:51:31,960
being a sports better and not a fan. We just

1029
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:34,119
get to change our mind and decide we're gonna ride.

1030
00:51:34,119 --> 00:51:37,599
We can be anti a team all year, and as

1031
00:51:37,599 --> 00:51:39,760
soon as the market swings or there's a matchup, we

1032
00:51:39,800 --> 00:51:41,440
can just go right back to the other team.

1033
00:51:42,239 --> 00:51:45,719
Speaker 2: I love this matchup for Yukon. We talked about it yesterday.

1034
00:51:46,039 --> 00:51:48,840
Speaker 1: It is I think as good of a matchup as

1035
00:51:48,920 --> 00:51:51,360
Yukon could have asked for of any of the teams

1036
00:51:51,400 --> 00:51:54,239
remaining pretty much at this point, and I think they're

1037
00:51:54,239 --> 00:51:57,159
gonna win. So I'm gonna put the money line in there.

1038
00:51:57,199 --> 00:52:00,320
Which will I think we probably I think my one

1039
00:52:00,360 --> 00:52:03,559
twenty five is probably fair. I'm seeing one and a

1040
00:52:03,559 --> 00:52:06,960
half most places, so that will be our three teamer

1041
00:52:07,000 --> 00:52:10,000
for the show. Yukon on the money line minus won

1042
00:52:10,039 --> 00:52:13,000
twenty half. What excuse me? You count on the money

1043
00:52:13,000 --> 00:52:19,320
line minus one twenty five? Houston, Illinois. You could tell

1044
00:52:19,320 --> 00:52:21,159
I've been doing shows for like two hours now. My

1045
00:52:21,199 --> 00:52:23,800
brain is like fried. We did the Baseball Show Anyone

1046
00:52:23,840 --> 00:52:27,280
Interested in Baseball? We did our first episode of Total

1047
00:52:27,320 --> 00:52:29,400
Bases earlier, so you can check that out myself.

1048
00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:30,840
Speaker 2: Tokyo Brandon Brian Leonard.

1049
00:52:31,320 --> 00:52:36,599
Speaker 1: Okay, one more time, Yukon moneyline minus one twenty five, Houston,

1050
00:52:36,719 --> 00:52:41,039
Illinois over one thirty nine and a half, and then

1051
00:52:41,360 --> 00:52:46,320
tonight Illinois State Dayton over minus one forty. I got

1052
00:52:46,360 --> 00:52:49,280
it out. That's the three teamer that before we close out.

1053
00:52:49,320 --> 00:52:52,039
Anything else you want to add that we didn't touch.

1054
00:52:51,800 --> 00:52:55,440
Speaker 3: On, there's no other games. We've really hit it all.

1055
00:52:56,079 --> 00:52:56,920
Speaker 2: We have hit it all.

1056
00:52:56,960 --> 00:52:59,599
Speaker 1: We've done all twelve games over the last two days. Again,

1057
00:52:59,639 --> 00:53:02,039
I'll say again yesterday's show. If you are looking for

1058
00:53:02,159 --> 00:53:06,840
Duke Saint John's Michigan State, Yukon, and then the two

1059
00:53:06,880 --> 00:53:11,159
NI games Auburn, Nevada, Illinois State Dayton, those are all

1060
00:53:11,199 --> 00:53:14,480
broken down in full on yesterday's show. Head on over

1061
00:53:14,519 --> 00:53:17,559
to the wager Talk YouTube channel for that replay. While

1062
00:53:17,599 --> 00:53:20,559
you're over there, like and subscribe. I'll put you on

1063
00:53:20,559 --> 00:53:23,480
the spot one more time before we sign off. Who

1064
00:53:23,519 --> 00:53:25,840
wins this tournament? Is there is there some way you're

1065
00:53:25,920 --> 00:53:30,639
leaning more than others? Is there someone that's undervalued that

1066
00:53:30,679 --> 00:53:32,159
you want to target? Who's your chance?

1067
00:53:33,079 --> 00:53:34,840
Speaker 3: I think if you want to go undervalued, I mean

1068
00:53:34,840 --> 00:53:36,960
we talked about Illinois Houston. I think if you know

1069
00:53:37,000 --> 00:53:40,719
who wins that game, you have an underrated national champion

1070
00:53:40,800 --> 00:53:43,119
because I think the two best teams in the country

1071
00:53:43,159 --> 00:53:45,719
are Michigan and Arizona, but only one of them can

1072
00:53:45,760 --> 00:53:50,679
make the National championship game. And Duke is definitely a

1073
00:53:50,679 --> 00:53:52,960
little bit exposed right now with their short rotation and

1074
00:53:53,000 --> 00:53:54,960
how they've struggled in the first half of their games.

1075
00:53:55,280 --> 00:53:58,000
And I don't think Nebraska or Iowa can be either

1076
00:53:58,119 --> 00:54:01,199
Houston or Illinois. So if you know who's gonna win

1077
00:54:01,239 --> 00:54:04,800
that game, I think Illinois. I think that there's value

1078
00:54:04,840 --> 00:54:06,400
in Illinois. If you think Houston's gonna win, I think

1079
00:54:06,400 --> 00:54:10,159
there's value in Houston, because there is Maybe I would

1080
00:54:10,199 --> 00:54:12,719
say there may be plus The winner of that game

1081
00:54:12,800 --> 00:54:16,920
is plus one fifty to make the National Championship game,

1082
00:54:17,719 --> 00:54:19,480
in which case you got a lot of value.

1083
00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:22,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I could get down with that.

1084
00:54:22,840 --> 00:54:25,360
Speaker 1: I think if you put me on the spot similarly,

1085
00:54:25,599 --> 00:54:28,719
I probably would have made the same case for Houston

1086
00:54:29,079 --> 00:54:31,199
and for a lot of those points. So I think

1087
00:54:31,880 --> 00:54:36,280
the thought process right there absolutely makes sense. Guys, if

1088
00:54:36,760 --> 00:54:39,519
you're in survivor pools, your brackets, whatever you got going,

1089
00:54:40,239 --> 00:54:43,480
good luck with that. Again, we have now hit all

1090
00:54:43,480 --> 00:54:46,719
twelve games. You've got six of them today, go back

1091
00:54:46,760 --> 00:54:51,239
for yesterday's show, the other four tonight's in IT games,

1092
00:54:51,280 --> 00:54:53,760
and then the two East Region games are on there.

1093
00:54:54,159 --> 00:54:56,599
Huge shout out to Matt for filling in this week

1094
00:54:56,800 --> 00:54:59,320
while Robino is on tour. I saw a bunch of

1095
00:54:59,360 --> 00:55:01,320
the Wager Talk went to the show out in Vegas

1096
00:55:01,360 --> 00:55:04,039
last night. I was super jealous of that. His son's

1097
00:55:04,039 --> 00:55:07,679
band is awesome, And yeah, we will if you're if

1098
00:55:07,880 --> 00:55:11,239
again Total Bases tomorrow at nine am and the rest

1099
00:55:11,280 --> 00:55:13,000
of the week, and then we will be back for

1100
00:55:13,079 --> 00:55:16,760
more college basketball stuff on Saturday on Last Call to

1101
00:55:17,199 --> 00:55:18,199
preview the Elite Eight.

1102
00:55:18,519 --> 00:55:20,920
Speaker 2: I will be with Kelly and Vegas on Last Call

1103
00:55:21,000 --> 00:55:22,159
to do that. Guys.

1104
00:55:22,360 --> 00:55:25,239
Speaker 1: We've appreciated you guys all season tuning in and the

1105
00:55:25,400 --> 00:55:27,199
likes and the subscribes and all the comments, So thank

1106
00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:30,119
you so much for sort of rocking with us all season,

1107
00:55:30,480 --> 00:55:33,639
and Full Corp Press will be back in some capacity

1108
00:55:33,679 --> 00:55:34,079
next week.

1109
00:55:34,119 --> 00:55:36,760
Speaker 2: So this is not the last show, but we'll you.

1110
00:55:36,719 --> 00:55:39,880
Speaker 1: Know, we're running out of games to talk about, Matt,

1111
00:55:39,920 --> 00:55:41,599
so we're getting toward the end.

1112
00:55:41,639 --> 00:55:43,679
Speaker 2: It's been a great season. Again.

1113
00:55:43,719 --> 00:55:46,519
Speaker 1: You can find Matt on Twitter at Matthew Winnick. And

1114
00:55:46,639 --> 00:55:49,039
on Basket under Review, so check him out there. He

1115
00:55:49,079 --> 00:55:51,079
did a full preview for the South region, so if

1116
00:55:51,079 --> 00:55:53,239
you're looking for more thoughts there, that's up on the

1117
00:55:53,239 --> 00:55:54,400
basket review page.

1118
00:55:54,559 --> 00:55:56,599
Speaker 2: We are out. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you

1119
00:55:56,639 --> 00:55:57,320
guys next time.