Speaker 2: All right, welcome in.
Speaker 1: It is time for full Court Press the Sweet sixteen edition.
But quick programming note, if you missed yesterday's show, Matt
and I went over the NIT and then the East
region of the Sweet sixteen, so that is up on
the wager Talk YouTube channel on demand. There is still
two NIT games tonight that we talked about on there,
and then the East region Duke Saint John's Michigan State
Yukon is already done, already clicked up. You may have
seen those videos on Twitter at this point, they're on
the wager Talk YouTube channel. So we're not gonna talk
about those games here. We're gonna leave the hour for
the other three regions. But first I want to welcome
in my co host, Matthew Winnick at Matthew Winnick on Twitter.
Speaker 2: Matt, you know what you ended up being.
Speaker 1: Like pretty much spot on in the NIT I split
last night, but you were all over New Mexico and
they certainly sort of came out in the second half.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they sat Joe's hit their shots early, but New
Mexico doesn't care. They're gonna stick with their plan, and
their plan inevitably over forty minutes, making a bad shooting team,
take a ton of threes, ended up working overtime, and
that's the thing, Like this is a good lesson to
learn just with basketball in general, and when we had
to wait this season and early next season, just because
the plan doesn't work in the first half doesn't mean
it's the wrong plan.
Speaker 1: So I've decided, so Wichita State, we were going. I'm
going to mark yesterday's parlay as a loss because on
the show it was still three and a half. And
if you so, if you guys remember on the show,
I said that I was gonna wait until Tulsa got
bet as if David Green was playing, I hoped he
would be in and then I would probably take Whichita State.
That is exactly what I did for my clients at
wager Talk. I played it at four and a half.
It landed for so we cashed with that one. But
I can't count the show parlay as a win. So, Matt,
what I decided to do to make this parlay a
three teamer is I want to use your leg from yesterday,
So can you very quickly just recap what your play
was because that goes tonight in the NIT.
Speaker 3: That was the Dayton Illinois State over. We've been seeing
a lot of overs in the NIT. I don't think
that Illinois State can stop Dayton and I think Illinois
State makes enough shots for this to go over.
Speaker 2: Yep.
Speaker 1: So that will be the open leg of our three
teamer for the analysis on that.
Speaker 2: As I said, head over to yesterday's show.
Speaker 1: It's up on the wager Talk YouTube channel, and that
is where you'll find both of tonight's n games as
well as the East region of the Sweet Sixteen. So,
without further ado, let's get in to the rest of
the Sweet Sixteen and we'll go We'll go region by
region right here.
Speaker 2: And I'll actually go day by day.
Speaker 1: Let's start with the Thursday games, and I'm gonna start
over in the West region because again we're just going
to kind of go the first game to tip off
of the Sweet Sixteen is out West. It's Texas and
Purdue and matt I. You know, I sigh here because
I like Texas. I want to be on Texas. I
felt like my handicap of Miami was pretty good over
the weekend. And of course the reason that you can
tell the sort of you know that I'm upset about
it is because that Miami bet didn't win, and I
felt like I deserve to win down four with.
Speaker 2: Fifty six seconds left. But at the same.
Speaker 1: Time, I guess, you know, a neutral party could look
at it and say that knockout punch was kind of
always come and it was kind of right there, and
that's kind of what Purdue did at the end of
that game. I worry that the same thing happens to
me here if I take Texas. It's why I haven't
bet it yet. But I wouldn't be that surprised if
Texas hung around. So talk to me, Texas perdue. This
is what I was having trouble with.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is gonna be a really really interesting game
because these two teams, and I think this is the
case for so many of these games, and the Sweet
Sixteen is these two teams play unbelievably differently, and they
come from leagues the SEC and the Big Ten that
play unbelievably differently, and so not only do they play different,
but they haven't really played a lot of teams that
play like their opponent. So there's not a lot of
precedent in terms of how these teams are going to fare.
Texas plays you know, a very very soft drop coverage.
It means they're not going to force the ball and
force pressure on Braiden Smith at all. They want Braiden
Smith to be a shooter. They wanted to be a score.
They want braid and Smith to take twenty shots in
this game and have four assists versus a lot of
the games that Braiden Smith's played, especially of late. It's
the opposite. They're going to send two to the ball.
They're going to make Brad Smith give it up. What
that means is Purdue is going to take a lot
of pull up two's in this game. Now, Purdue's amazing
at doing that, but it's not a very it's not
a very efficient shot. They're not going to get to
the rim munch. They're not going to take a lot
of threes. They're not going to have a lot of
you know, CJ. Cox, if he's healthy, Fletcher Lawyer's threes.
It's gonna be a lot of Smith and Trey Koffman
ran pick and roll over and over and over again.
The question is is that actually the best thing for
Purdue's offense. I actually don't think it is. But on
the flip side, Texas loves to get to the free
throw line. It's an SEC thing. Everyone in the SEC
gets the free throw line, gets the offensive glass. Those
are two things that Texas needs. They need the free
throw line, they need offensive rebounding. Purdue is top thirty
in the country at defending both. You can't get to
the free throw line against them, and you can't get
offensive rebounds, which means now the pressures on Texas to
make shots and tron Mark is off his game. If
Jordan Pope isn't hitting threes, Texas has no one that
can hit shots. And so this is a matchup where
I think that the offense is not going to be
put in ideal situations on both sides.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I just go to the comments and
try to sort of incorporate as many into the show
as I can, and I see a good point. It's like, yeah,
Slick Vick says, you know, vocatitis follows a lot, and
you know all season that's kind of been an issue
that that is a concern him getting into foul trouble
because that certainly, you know, Texas is not as good
with him not on the floor. I guess my other
main concern in this game, you know, you talked about
Braden Smith. You know, he's typically very good against the
drop coverage like Texas's tech, like Texas is going to
play you know, I go back to the Miami game.
I thought they did a pretty good job on him
in general. They he had he took twelve shots, he
was only three for twelve, So like Miami was trying
to bait him into what you were saying is like
shooting the basketball.
Speaker 2: They turned him over eight times.
Speaker 1: And yet Purdue at the end of dust settles and
produce still has a double digit win. And again I
I will you know, I'm going to complain a little
bit like that. You know, Miami gets it down to four,
there's fifty six seconds left. Why are we following? Why
are we not playing that out? And then I probably cover.
But the flip side of that is like Miami kind
of had to battle back to get back down for
there was a point in time in the second half
where it felt like Purdue could have been up fifteen
seventeen and he could have been good night. So while
I do think Texas has the athletes and could have
I mean, they've had the shot making all tournament so far.
This might be they might be asking for a lot
here for Texas to stay in this game.
Speaker 3: You want to britten Smith's stat because Texas is going to,
like I said, force him to shoot a bunch of
shots in the mid range because they're not going to
pressure him at all. Purdue's two and three this year.
When he takes more than fifteen shots, they are fourteen
and one. When he takes less than ten, I promise
you he'll take more than ten shots. And I if
I were to guess he will take more than fifteen shots,
in which case that is where Purdue is two and three.
They lost to Illinois, Wisconsin and Ohio State and they
beat Penn State and out of.
Speaker 1: Bit that's a really good stat actually, and that this,
you know, I think that's like un fortunately for me here, Matt,
like I'm as I sort of look at the sweet
sixteen as a whole.
Speaker 2: I have I have a lot of I.
Speaker 1: Have more opinions that I'm like the high of conviction
that I expected to. So it's going to probably be
a little bit easier for me to leave this one alone.
My number comes out, I'm close to the market. I
think it was actually like eight point two. Yeah, I
was eight. I was perdue minus eight point two here,
so at seven and a half, I don't I don't
think I'll have any involvement with with with Texas, And
I made the mistake of I was close to the
market on the Purdue Miami game. I just I loved
how how much that's set up for Miami and seeing
Purdue cover and then what they did in the second half,
I think is going to scare me off here.
Speaker 2: So I don't think I'll have anything in this one.
Speaker 3: In theory, I do really like the under, but it's
seven to seven and a half points off of Ken Bombs,
so you're gonna have to really like the under if
you want to take it, which I do, but I
wouldn't necessarily recommend it just because of how far it's
off of model.
Speaker 1: All Right, we are going to stay out west the
SAP Center, San Jose, California. The nightcap in this building
gonna be a great game to watch, definitely one I'm
very excited to to, you know, to watch in Arkansas
and Arizona. But this is the first of two for me, Matt.
Where I wrote on my notes, I circled these and
I wrote, don't do it. Okay, that's what I have
right next to Arkansas. I said, don't do it. My
number shows a little Arkansas value. I have been very
high on Arkansas this year. Sometimes when you go to
a lot of games and see a lot of teams
in person, I walked out of the Breslin Center earlier
this year and I was just like, Oh, I love
this Arkansas team. I know they lost this game, but
like a cuff is just I mean, there's there's just
so much potential here and I kind of have you know,
I've sort of carried that through the season with me,
and actually it's probably helped me in that regard because
I think Arkansas did sort of blossom into being a
team that was like, maybe probably better than people thought
they were at that point in the year. I also
saw Arkansas down in Gainesville when they got run out
by forty because they couldn't guard Florida, And that's where
I'll throw this to you. Their defense has been a
real issue. High point got whatever they want against it,
you know, against them, and Arkansas was able to will
their way to a win. But that is very scary
against the Arizona Wildcats, who kind of compare a little
bit more to that Florida team that dropped one hundred
something and probably could have put more if they didn't
unload their bench. So talk to me about Arkansas Arizona.
Do you think the Razorbacks have a shot? And where
are you out on the number here?
Speaker 3: They don't have a chance. Okay, if you needed more
voices to tell you not to do it in Arkansas,
let me be the voice. Don't do it on Arkansas.
It's just that's a bad idea. Arkansas is the worst
rim defense in Power Conference basketball, I think in the
entire country. Like it's so so bad. And the part
that's craziest about their rim defense being so horrific is
there twenty fourth in the country and block rate, Like
they block so many shots and it still doesn't matter.
Their rim defense is so unbelievably bad. They allow teams
to shoot sixty one percent at the rim, which is
a fifteenth percentile rate and normally left for like the
worst teams in the country. The thing with Arkansas is
they go for blocks so frequently between Trevon Brazil, Malik You,
and Nick Pringle that if they don't get it, it's
two points. If you can get an offensive rebound and
if you pump fake them, they're in the air and
then you're scoring. With Arizona playing two bigs at all times,
it means that if the first shot doesn't go in,
the second shots going right to the other big, they're
gonna get so many offensive rebounds, they're gonna score so
many points. You mentioned the Florida game, another team that's huge,
amazing at the rim and plays two bigs. They made
thirty one two point field goals and they got forty
nine percent of their misses on the offensive glass. If
you're gonna get half of your misses and make thirty
one to two pointers, Florida score one hundred and eleven
points in that game. Arizona will score one hundred if
that happens. And there's no magic fix for Arkansas because
they only play seven guys and their best defender, Nick
Pringle is injured and might play, but if he does,
it won't be much. The only way Arkansas has a
chance here is if Darius Seguff and Malik Thomas combined
for like sixty five points, and they might, in which
case the game goes over. But if you're at telling
me which team has a more efficient and better pathway
to points. Is it the one that's going to get
half of their offensive rebounds and score sixty points in
the paint, or is it the one that has two
bucket getters and is going to score sixty points off
of mid range pull up jumpers? Like I'm gonna take
the rim team twenty times out of ten.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I think we ultimately talk me off of,
you know, messing with Arkansas here, and I'll make I'll
make my point on the number in a second. But
you know, I was at the Florida game obviously, I
mean that was as dominant of a performance that you're
probably going to ever find, big national TV game Saturday
night sellout Arkansas. Actually, you know what was even more
ridiculous about that game. Arkansas actually kind of dominated the
first eight minutes. There was a point in time where
Todd Golden had to call a time out because Arkansas
went up like sixteen twelve. They were they had more
energy than Florida, you know it was, and he called
a time out and they were actually down I think
it was sixteen ten or sixteen twelve. And that game
turned into a forty point blowout. And so that just
to you know, just to kind of put it in perspective.
But you know that Arkansas suddenly played a very easy
week schedule of late right like, they drew a good,
really good first round matchup in Hawaii that didn't press
them at all. They had the benefit of high Point
pulling the upset so they didn't have to face Wisconsin
the SEC tournament Ole Miss in Oklahoma.
Speaker 2: Not great team.
Speaker 1: You know, the Vandy win is solid, but and I
even made so I'll give you my second point and
then you can kind of wrap this up.
Speaker 2: I said, Okay, I Arkansas.
Speaker 1: When we talked about Arkansas high Point last week, I said,
you know, I prefer Arkansas in the underdog role.
Speaker 2: That's where I'd rather have them. I actually leaned toward
high Point.
Speaker 1: I think I gave out high Point on the show
plus the points and said, I don't want this team
as an eleven point favorite.
Speaker 2: I prefer them as the underdog. Here.
Speaker 1: My number was six and a half, so on the
open at eight and a half, that showed value. Now
I didn't bet it because I still have a brain,
and I was you know, you know, I still I'm
not just going to blindly bet my numbers. But the
final point I'm gonna make before I throw this back
to you is I do think the market is sort
of betting this the way that my number is suggesting
to bet. There's eight and a half down to seven
and a half a lot of places. So my question
to you is, is this a point where you're punching back?
Speaker 2: Is this as good as it's going to get?
Speaker 3: It?
Speaker 1: You, like, Arizona, Should you be hopping on seven and
a half right now?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: I mean it might get better, but I think you're
sure you're getting value on the price given Ken Palm
has an eight, and I think this is a great
matchup for Arizona specifically, just outside of the number. The
other thing here is like there's gonna be so many points,
and obviously the total is in the mid one sixties,
so that's going to be expected. I would say that,
like the natural inclination is like, oh, take the over.
But I just think that Arizona is a safer side
because like, when I'm thinking about what's safest, I'm always
going to think about which team has the rim advantage
because there's no variance in rimed tends like you're either
good at the rim or you're not good at the rim.
You're either gonna get to the rim, you're not gonna
get to the rim. You either have good rim defense
or you don't. And Arizona gets to the rim and
Arkansas has bad rim defense. You don't have fluctuations and
shooting percentage on layups. You either make them and you
get them, or you don't, And so Arizona does. With Arkansas,
It's going to come down to whether Darius Acuff and
Malik Thomas are unbelievable or not. You think about that
Alabama Arkansas game that went to two overtimes, that was
one hundred and seventeen to one fifteen in double overtime.
That was insane. Alabama should have won that game by thirty.
They shot seventy two percent at the rim. But Darius
Acuff was so unbelievable that Arkansas actually just had a chance.
To my point, it took a forty nine point performance
from Darius Acuff for Arkansas to have a chance and
still lose. So the safest play here is Arizona. In
my mind, I know a lot of people are gonna
like the over and like I do too, But if
I'm deciding between the two, it's just a safer bet
to take Arizona against the spread.
Speaker 1: All right, all right, we'll move on Joe, and again,
I'll probably talk about this a couple times throughout the show.
Speaker 2: Saint John's Duke.
Speaker 1: We did that one yesterday as well as yukon Michigan State.
So if you're watching the show because it's labeled Sweet
sixteen and you're looking for the East region, that is
up on the Wager Talk to YouTube channel as part
of Tuesday show. But also those individual games are already
on the Wager Talk to YouTube channel as well, so
you should be able to find those clipped and we
did full breakdowns for those yesterday. All Right, I am
going to transition to the Midwest because I want to
go to the other so I said, don't do it
on my notes.
Speaker 2: You you just.
Speaker 1: Confirmed that I'm probably gonna put a big black line
through that one after we know, because I'm kind of
with you there. But this one, you're gonna have to
do a better job of talking to me off this one,
because this one I have a little bit more conviction
toward at least being like a more viable option.
Speaker 2: And so let's go to the Midwest. Let's go to Chicago.
Illinois the United Center.
Speaker 1: My number likes Alabama here, and again I put don't
do it because I guess I know what the bad
could be here if if the threes aren't falling.
Speaker 2: But this is the one where, like if you were
to look at.
Speaker 1: Those two games Bama, Michigan, Arkansas Arizona, like, to me,
the more likely that a team just goes absolutely nuts
and shoots their way to like a huge upset win
would be this game. With Bama hoisting up, they might
shoot fifty threes here, Matt, they might jack up fifty
threes in this game. I think they'll think they'll shoot
more than forty. My question to you is is that
sort of crazy variance worth the shot getting ten points?
And I might even sprinkle something on the money line
just for the hell of it, just because if they
are falling, I think they have a chance to win.
Speaker 3: You're one hundred percent right, especially with that moneyline perspective.
I think that you're right. Albais can take so many
threes that they hit him at forty percent, like they
did against Texas Tech, where they look completely unbelievable, Like
look at that Texas Tech game. I actually I think
that Texas Tech in a vacuum, especially without Aiden Halloway,
even without JT. Top and I think Tech was the
more talented team, and Texas Tech had made more free
throws and they shot better from two point range. But
Alabama shot forty five percent from three and Texas Tech
shot sixteen percent from three. And if that happens against Michigan,
Alabama will win. And you're one hundred percent right to
the point where I just think taking a stab at
the money line makes more sense in the spread, because
if Alabama doesn't make forty percent of their threes, I
don't see how they compete given they don't have Aiden Holloway.
They're not good on the glass, they don't force any turnovers,
and they fail too much. So with Michigan, I'm always
worried about them against teams that pressure them, that send
two to the ball, because they turn it over too
much and they're just so dominant like physically that if
you give them one on one matchups, they're going to
find the best one and take advantage at Daimara has
a good matchup, he'll post you up. Yaxelendeborg has a
small guy on him, he'll drive him downhill, if he
has the big guy on him, he'll shoot over him.
With the Alabama because of the way that they play
with Nato, it's like they're never ever ever going to
double team anything unless they absolutely have to. And because
of that, Michigan's just gonna find the best matchup and
expose it. And there's gonna be good matchups because Alabama
plays small and Michigan plays huge. So I think in
a vacuum, like the number moving towards Michigan makes sense.
At the same time, like you mentioned in a variance
game where Alabama is going to take sixty five percent
of their shots from three if they hit them again,
I think that that BYU game last year where they
had like the best three punching game in March Mannus history.
It's possible that happens, in which case you'll look really
smart with an Alabama money line ticket, But I'm not
sure if there's as much value on the spread.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's That's ultimately what I sort of
came to in my head was it's, you know, what's
what's the harm in taking a small crack at like
a big money line double digit dog, Whereas like when
you start to look at it against the minus one
ten and Okay, now, yeah, like obviously you have a
much better chance of hitting your bet on the ten
and a half or the ten. But the flip side,
you know, it'll be easier to stomach if the threes
aren't falling for Bama and they're quickly down twenty twenty
five and the game is over, well, you just had
a small play on the money line, Whereas it's like
you're sitting there with like a big bet on or
a standard bet on plus ten and they get down
huge like that. I don't know if Bama even comes
back from that, Like I think they have to. I
think they have to start maybe Bama first half a
little bit, because I think if they don't start hot
and they and they start chasing big time, like they're
chasing double digits early, that concerns me for Alabama.
Speaker 3: Here, Yeah, for sure. And then you also just like
think about how some of these games have gone. I
know you've been on the wrong side of a couple
of them with just like late game foul extension, Game
seven with a minute and a half left and the
next thing you know, it's thirteen.
Speaker 2: So yeah, that is true, and it.
Speaker 1: It's it's worth pointing out, like I know, it's sort
of I get it gets beat to death at this
time in the year, but it's like it is worth
pointing out that, Like it's the game extension in the
NCAA tournament when you're I mean your season's over. So
it's like, you know, it makes sense that everyone is
going to foul until the very last second. Why wouldn't
you maybe you know, why wouldn't you crazy?
Speaker 3: Even in the n I t there's a world in
which New Mexico doesn't cover, but Saint Joe's didn't let
them not cover with how many times they fouled down.
Speaker 1: Town, right, yeah, yeah, no, it's a it's a really
good point, and it has made it It has made
it difficult to you know, you're taking a like that's
the thing, like if you take a big if you
take a big under or any underdog, I mean I
I guess we'll say a big underdog where you're in
you're in the extension range where it's like, Okay, if
you're taking a two and a half point underdog, you
kind of are taking them with the expectation you're gonna win. Yes,
but you know, if you're taking a seven point dog,
an eight point dog, a ten point dog, like you
are sort of banking on a close game. And there's
been quite a few scenario go back, even Arizona last
round getting up and over eleven and a half was
I mean, there's there's been quite a few where they
the end result of who got the money maybe wasn't
indicative of betting the right side or not.
Speaker 3: Now that said, and this is a whole other conversation
I won't go too deep into. There are coaches and
teams that are good late game folaxtension teams and some
that are bad. And anecdotally, Nadeouts is a very very
good one because a lot of teams make the mistake
of going twos for twos as an issuet a quick layup,
then foul again. The team makes free throws and they're
just playing the same game. Alabama will never choot a
two of that situation. They're gonna shoot only threes, and
they make so many threes that it is the math.
The math is in their favor in the late game
balax tension situation. So unlike some teams where it's like
this makes no sense, there is a world where Michigan's
up like twelve. Alabama does do the late game of
fallextension and it turns into seven real quick, and then
that's where it ends. Very anecdotal, but that is a
team that I would want to be backing in a
late game balox ension situation.
Speaker 1: It's my final question to you here on this game
before we move on. I'm looking at the Odds logic
screen and I'm seeing quite a few books go to
ten and a half here is the Is there a
number where you get involved with Alabama or you just I.
Speaker 3: Think it's too much variance. I don't think I want
to take a chance, and like at this total, I
do kind of lean under, but in the same realm
of not wanting to take the dog. It's just what
if Alabama makes forty five percent of their threes, then
the underlooks so stupid. If they hit twenty percent of
their threeses, it's gonna fly under by twenty points. It's
just it's one of those where it's like, maybe, if
one thing's happening at halftime, do the other. Like even
though I was on New Mexico yesterday when Derek Simson
hit four straight threes, at halftime, I was like, well,
there's too much value at in Mexico. I'm going to
double down here. If one of the teams is read
out from three, or one of the teams ice cold
from three, just try the other side at off time.
It's probably gonna work out.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: So I didn't set it up this way, but we
just kind of got we're halfway through. But for me,
those were my those were the three I had. I
had much lesser opinions on. So I think we're getting
to the good ones, at least for me, the ones
that I'm much more sort of like, I guess close
to making a move in at this point, and of
course we'll lock in. We've already decided the first leg
of the show Parlay, is going to be Matt's n
I played for later tonight, which we'll recap at the end.
The other two legs will come from the Sweet sixteen.
So the games we talked about yesterday are fair game.
I know you and I both kind of, you know,
sort of talked about Yukon being an option in that game.
I want to go to the nightcap on Thursday out
in the Midwest. I'm sorry this is we're back on Friday. Sorry,
this is Friday. In the It doesn't really matter what
days because we're doing all the Sweet sixteen games, but
this is Friday, this is the Midwest. Iowa State last
round against Kentucky. Just from a from a market standpoint here,
Matt Kentucky took respected money Saturday into Sunday, obviously tied
to Josh Jefferson, probably not playing right, and in the
spread came down from six. I think it got down
as low as four and a half. There was a
little bit of buyback and then the quote unquote sharps
or you know, I guess syndicates that would move the
number slammed Kentucky pretty late, like to post in that game.
I could not get down with that. The reason was, well,
I keep going back, I for what.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 1: What I had in my head was you being like,
is this team good at anything? Is Kentucky good at anything?
Speaker 3: I'm glad?
Speaker 2: I was like, man, yeah, it was in my head.
It was stuck in my head.
Speaker 1: I was like, you know, they're not and they're probably
going to turn the ball over a ton and Iowa
State will probably still win anyway. And that is pretty
much exactly what happened, But boy, that first ten minutes
or so didn't look great for Iowa State. And for me,
it's like, I think Tennessee could force Iowa State into
more minutes that look like that than Kentucky was able to.
And if Jefferson doesn't play here, which I think it's
crazy to think that he will, Tennessee is in this
game in my opinion, and that four and a half
starts to look quite appealing. So talk to me, Iowa State, Tennessee,
do you think the balls have a chance or is
it too much Iowa State defense?
Speaker 3: I think it's probably too much Iowa State defense, and
specifically the way that Iowa State plays defense, in which
they're going to double any time you drive and anytime
you set a screen, and your lead creator is going
to have a nightmare day because he's going to be
doubled constantly and not be able to get off clean looks.
With Kentucky, they didn't even have a lead creator. They
didn't have a point guard, and that's why the turnover
rate was so high. So Tennessee is not going to
turn it over quite as much. But what is going
to happen is Jacoby Gillespie is not going to get
a lot of shots off because not only is t. J.
Osilberger a smart defensive coach who's going to understand that
Jacoby Gillespie is Tennessee's only offense, their defense is built
to take away the opposition's point guard. And Gillespie is
the reason why Tennessee's looked so good through two rounds.
He has fifty points in two games, fifteen assists to
six turnovers. What happens when instead of being able to
take you fifteen shots or twenty one shots in the game,
he's going to take eight or nine shots, and they're
all going to be contested, and he's going to be
doubled the entire time he's on the floor. Is Nate
Aimant good enough to make up for that? Is anyone
else on Tennessee actually a third option, because as of
right now, there isn't. And if there's one team left
in the field, I don't want to see have to
go down their pecking order of scoring options, it's Tennessee.
And that's what Iowa State does better than any team
in the country. So if you're telling me that this
is you know, even if it's Josh Jefferson lists Iowa State.
I just don't see a Tennessee scorers.
Speaker 1: So I would be really kicking myself if I took
Tennessee and it played out the way that you're talking about,
because I've probably said on this show, God, you could
go back to the game that Tennessee lost up here
at the Dome. I think since that night, I was like, where,
like what is this offense?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: Like, you have two guys and outside of Geleepsi at
the men, you really don't have like any consistent scorers.
And I've sort of like that's sort of been my
stance all year. So I think for me, it's like
I had it in my head. Okay, after Iowa State
smashes Kentucky because they probably will, I'll look to oppose
them in the next round. But I would have probably
been better served getting Virginia here than Tennessee, I think,
for like from a matchup standpoint. And so that is
ultimately what probably keeps me off is there is the
fact that like I've said that way too many times
on the show to then come on here and go
against and go against it, and and yeah, I think
you need like Geleepsy twenty one, twenty nine twenty one
his last three games, He's played awesome. Part of my
a big criticism for me with Tennessee earlier this year
was that he was not playing up to the level
of like the Power Conference sort of starguard. But he's
he's definitely done that now. But yeah, the supporting cast
still leaves a lot to be desired. You probably need
a generational rebounding performance from Tennessee for them to win
this game. As we as we talk it out, I'm like, Oh,
they're gonna need to get every rebound second chance points.
And Gelopsy's still probably gonna need to have his fourth
straight game of twenty plus for Tennessee to win this game.
Speaker 3: And I don't I don't see your rold In Burgole's
be against twenty points unless it takes some twenty shots
to get there, which I would say. The way that
I'm looking at this game is I'm gonna wait. I'm
not gonna touch it until we know about Joshua Jefferson.
I agree, I don't think he's gonna play, but he might,
and I my perspective is if Jefferson plays, I will
take Iowa State. And if Jefferson doesn't play, I will
take under because I don't want to take Tennessee, but
I don't want to take Iowa State without Jefferson. I
think that without Jefferson, Iowa State's offense is in a
bigger problem than its defense, especially against a team that
doesn't turn it over too too much and has a
really good guard play. So I would go under if
Jefferson is out.
Speaker 1: Question for you, what, how do you think he this
number four and a half? Does that have him in
or out in your opinion?
Speaker 3: Without Jefferson?
Speaker 1: Like, are they pricing him in or out with the
being four or four and a half in your opinion?
Speaker 3: I think they're pricing him in because you saw that
Kentucky number move three points off, and like, yeah, Iowa
State played pretty well, but I wouldn't say they played
so well that it makes the you know, the market
feel like it's a three point you know, I guess
buyback on Jefferson less Iowa State. So I would have
to assume that if they thought for sure Jefferson wasn't
gonna play, this would not be above can bomb.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like, I see, that's the thing. I think.
Speaker 1: I think he's priced in there as well. And so
when I refer to my my number, I was making
a number with him out, and so that's that's that's
why I showed a little bit of value on the
Tennessee side because my Iowa State minus two point four
was with him out. So yeah, I and again I
don't think he's gonna, like, if you want my personal
gut feeling, I don't think he's gonna play me too.
But so again, I mean, if you're just kind of
like hunting some value and you want to, like you
want to take a four and a half with the
with the thought process that okay, I'll just I'll try
to middle this. I'll try to come back later once
he's ruled out and Tennessee gets slammed and then just
take Iowa state that you could do that. But yeah,
I mean again that's that I think that personally is
why I gravitate towards Tennessee, thinking that, oh that four
and a half number is gonna be gonna probably be value.
But then again a lot of people had good numbers
with Kentucky on Sunday over on Sunday, and uh didn't matter.
You're six with Kentucky did not matter.
Speaker 3: So I just think if you're gonna give me like
at the end of the day, this is scheme versus players,
because Iowa State is the better scheme, especially defensively, but
Tennessee is the two most in theory talented offensive players
in Gillespian aim At, I just trust Iowa State to
be able to scheme those two guys out and make
everyone else on Tennessee be.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: We have we have one region left, and for me,
it is from a betting standpoint, I think this is
the most in not the most interesting, but certainly like
probably the most of like where I'm I'm leaning toward,
well aside from the games we talked about the other day,
where I'm leaning toward probably having action, and so this
one has moved a little bit, which which might keep
me off.
Speaker 2: But let's start with Iowa Nebraska.
Speaker 1: We are now in Houston where the Cougars later that
evening will have a home game or kind of a
home game Toyota Center. But we're gonna start with Big
ten battle first, Nebraska Iowa. These teams have played each other,
and my initial reaction was that two and a half
with Iowa kind of looks nice. I made Iowa a
small favorite on the number. These teams know each other well.
I think I don't know if it's possible for Ben
McCollum to have a better game plan than he did
against Florida, but I could see him game planning for Nebraska.
He's seen him before, So talk to me about this one.
I made Iowa a point and a half favorite. It
looks like the market is starting to agree with me.
Where are you at on Iowa Nebraska?
Speaker 3: I'm the complete other way. Actually, I make Nebraska two
possession favorite, well slightly over one possession favorite.
Speaker 2: I'm glad.
Speaker 1: I don't want to take a bad number, so I'm
happy to hear that go ahead.
Speaker 3: I think that Ben McCollum, I think this number moving
towards Iowa is just the market believing in Ben McCollum.
And Ben McCollum's amazing But what Ben McCollum's amazing at
is dictating the tempo and dictating the game in the
way that he wants to play it. Florida was a
polar opposite team as Iowa, and because of that, because
Ben McCollum is so great at making you play his way,
Florida was so uncomfortable playing Iowa style, not only is
Nebraska comfortable playing Iowa's style, but they've done it twice
and the way that those two games played out so differently. Yes,
Iowa took Nebraska to overtime at at Nebraska, but Nebraska
was leading the entire game, was up double digits late,
and Iowa made a super late comeback to send it
to overtime and then couldn't hang on. But the most
important fact about that second game is that Iowa turned
it over nineteen times. I under I on Earth the
very very weird stat I put together the preview for
the South Region at Basket Under review, I would go
check out this is it makes no sense, but Iowa's
two to nine against Power Conference teams when they have
an assist rate over fifty eight percent. That means more
than fifty eight percent of their baskets are assisted on.
And that means they're thirteen and two against Power Conference
teams and their assist rate is lower than fifty eight percent,
which means Iowa is better when they get fewer assists,
which in theory makes absolutely no sense. But you know
what it means. When they get fewer assists, in means
more Bennett starts and more Bennett start shots is better
for Iowa. Even in a game where he goes oh
of nine from three. You want as many Bennett start
shots as possible. I don't think it's a coincidence that
in Iowa's win over Nebraska, Bennett Starts took twenty two
shots and seven free throws. In their loss against Nebraska,
he took ten shots and two free throws, less than
half the shots and less than half the free throws.
Nebraska's entire scheme is no isolation, double everything, no post ups,
no straight line drives. Make the others beat you, and
Iowa's others aren't good. Bennett starts didn't get doubled against
Florida because Florida doesn't double anything. Nebraska will double everything.
And I will take Nebraska being able to play their way,
being able to take out Bennett starts, and not getting
severely out coached by Ben McCollum, because yes, Ben McCollum
does know Nebraska, but Nebraska knows Ben mccaffy, and that
takes away that coaching edge in Nebraska is the better team.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's where you know.
Speaker 1: That's as you're as you're speaking, that's kind of what
you know I'm looking down at my notes, and I
noted just how slow Iowa got Florida to play in
that game, which you know, sort of how slow, and
how how they are able to like neutralize Florida's biggest advantage,
which is which is of course, their front court. And
it does seem like it's gonna be much harder to
do that against Nebraska the way Nebraska plays. So I
purposely Matt, you know, so first of all, yes, Matt,
you can find him on his Twitter handle, which is
on your screen, but also at Basket Under Review.
Speaker 2: I've just I mean, if you've.
Speaker 1: Watched the show, I've I've raved about the Basket Under
Review site all year. There's still I mean just going over.
I think it's what it's like ten bucks a month
to even just get the uh even just get get
it for March, just to get all the stuff they're
gonna have on the Sweet sixteen Elitate and Final four
is massive. And I purposely did not read your preview yet,
I said, I don't want to, and that's why I
didn't want to. I didn't want to, like subliminately, you know,
I purposely didn't read your preview before the show because
I wanted to make sure if we had differing opinions,
it came out on the show, and I have to
be on. I have to say this conversation over the
last hour has been very, very helpful to me because
I'm sitting here, like, man, I got an awfully long
list of sweet sixteen games I like, and you know,
I know it's not smart to go into a board
of eight games and bet six of them or whatever.
Speaker 2: Right like that.
Speaker 1: The market is pretty efficient at this point in time,
and I'm slowly talking myself off of some of these
and the thing is, like this one, they kind of
did it for me. I would have only played this
at two and a half for Iowa. Now that it's
pretty much one and a half everywhere, I think you
kind of missed your.
Speaker 2: Chance for Iowa. But Nebraska's probably gonna take that.
Speaker 1: I could see someone coming in betting Nebraska, and I
think you'll have a shot at two and a hal
half with Iowa. Do you think Iowa gets to three
at any point? Do you think Nebraska takes that much money?
Speaker 3: I don't think that. With the way that the market
works like this late in the season, with this much
action on games, it's gonna move that much more after
having already moved one way, Like I wouldn't expect so
much bounce back with a market like the Sweet sixteen.
I think that the market has made itself known. They
know what they want and that's what they're gonna get.
The market prefers Iowa is what it is at this point.
I understand, But I just Iowa had a really bad
end to their season. They lost to Penn State in Maryland.
They were not good, and they lost to Ohio State
in the conference tournament. And then you get a Clemson
team that I think was a very good matchup because
Clemson needs to slow teams down, and Iowa was happy
with that. They played the slowest game in the entire season.
And then you get Florida and they slowed Florida down
to basically nothing and just completely made them uncomfortable. This
is not going to make Nebraska uncomfortable. Nebraska will be
completely fine here. This is a Big Ten game. Nebraska
went fifteen and five in the Big Ten. Like this
is hard for them. This is their element and they're
gonna have more fans because we've seen Nebraska's traveling like crazy.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, No, Nebraska, they will uh this game
being even in even in Houston, they'll take I would
imagine it's a lot of Nebraska fans.
Speaker 2: You're right, they travel extreme. You travel better than Iowa
for sure. Yeah, yeah there was.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'll tell you what when when when the
Iowa girls came with Caitlin Clark to Albany, there was
all Iowa fans. They might they might have just been
Albany natives being Iowa fans because I was like, man, man,
this is they really travel here?
Speaker 2: And yeah, that's that's an interesting point. And and it is.
Speaker 1: A perfect, perfect segue into the final game because you
got to think that the Toyota Center is going to
be all lot of Houston fans.
Speaker 2: Houston.
Speaker 1: What a gift for this team Matt right in their backyard,
right in their own city.
Speaker 2: I don't I don't know that Houston really earned that
this year.
Speaker 1: The ability to have a like basically a home game
in the Sweet sixteen, in the Elite eight. But Houston
will play this game in Houston against Illinois. And this
is one my number loves Houston here showing it is.
I am like like six and a half with Houston,
which is crazy to me, and again it's hard to
you know, that's with me trying to wait in some
home court, which I do think is maybe worth You know,
it's not the for Tita Center.
Speaker 2: You're not gonna give them that kind of home court edge.
Speaker 1: But they're right in their home city, like you certainly
got to bump them a little bit for home court.
The problem is, and I'll go back to a point
that I made regarding Houston and let you kind of
take it from there. Defensively not the team they've been
in the past couple of years. I think that's what
I've noted with Houston at times where they just aren't
that like crazy, like going to stop you at all
costs and like totally just wipe you out defensively type team.
And I guess I noted that could be an issue
here against Illinois, But I still see some pass to
victory here for Houston.
Speaker 2: So talk to me about this one.
Speaker 1: Who do you like Illinois Houston at the Toyota Center
in Houston's backyard.
Speaker 3: We're just not agreeing today. We're really not agreeing today.
I'm an Illinois. Yes, home court a bit of a thing,
doesn't not that it really means much but Houston only
has This is insane. In the last nine seasons that
Houston has nine losses in the city of Houston, one
loss averaged per year in the city of Houston. And
I say that because this game isn't at home, it's
in Houston. The Cougar is actually zero to one at
the Toyota Center over that stretch, but that doesn't mean anything.
But they did lose at the Toyota Center to Auburn
last year two Final fourteen teams. Auburn got the best
of Houston there. The thing with Houston is their defense
is number four in ken Bound. Their defense is very good,
but it's very, very mediocre against the best offenses they've played.
Let me tell you their seven worst defensive performances this
year by a wide margin. It's like those seven and
then a huge gap BYU Arizona, Arkansas, Iowa State, Arizona, Tennessee,
Texas Tech, AKA, all the best teams they've played. Yeah,
and then you go up all their best performances. It's
all of their by games. It's West Virginia, it's Kansas,
it's Baylor, it's all of the inferior offenses they've played.
I like the over as well. I like Illinois, and
I like the over for one, Houston's defense is going
to be overrated against good defenses because their defensive rating
is what it is, and the splits between bad offenses
and good offenses is as drastic as you'll see in
the country. So given to get Illinois the number two
offensive efficiency team in the entire country, I think they're
gonna score fine here. But the biggest difference in this
game for me is Illinois's passing in their shot volume.
Houston gets a ton of turnovers and they get a
ton of offensive rebounds, but Illinois never turns it over
and Illinois doesn't allow offensive rebounds, and they're the tallest
team in the country, so it's very hard to get
rebounds over them. If Houston cannot get steals and if
Houston cannot get offensive rebounds, then this is a game
of shot making, and I am going to take Illinois
offense with their analytically minded shot profile and their plethora
of options over Houston's dribble pull up offense every day.
I like Houston that they can get steels and offensive rebounds,
but they're not gonna get that in this game. And
because they're not gonna get that. If you're taking Houston,
you're basically saying, I think Houston's gonna be better at
making shots than Illinois, isn't. I just don't think that's correct.
Speaker 1: So I can find some absolutely can find some merit
in the over. Colin Gregory says, I like the over
one thirty nine and a half. I do think the
I think Houston's gonna get the shots that they're they're
able to make. Like you know, Kingston Flemings probably gets
quite a few good mid range looks and if he
can knock them down, he can absolutely keep them in
this game. Yes, I guess what I was, you know,
because I kind of was shocked. I guess when I
ran the numbers and I'm like, eh, you're probably you're
probably too far off. Like making Houston that big of
a favorite doesn't really make sense. But like I do
think Houston's gonna be able to score more maybe more points,
Like Illinois is not going to wipe out Houston in
my opinion in this game. From a so, I'm kind
of with Colin on the over. I could see that
over one thirty nine and a half there too. Yeah,
I will say this, like I said, I'm I'm I'm glad,
you know I I was. I'm more of a I
tend to be more selective. I'm not like a like
a board spray type better. And so the fact that
like I came in with this long list of opinions,
now I have a lot to think about, So that
that is like, I'm actually happy that we had some
disagreement because I got to go back and say, all right,
And that's the thing. I think that's anyone because this
is still a you know, more of a betting show
than anything like For me, it's always challenging to sort
of take your number and then apply it in the
context of like the tournament, you're all, you're on all,
it's always.
Speaker 2: It's a neutral floor.
Speaker 1: Now there's so much more public money in the market
than there is during the regular season, so books have
to make a number anticipating how the masses are going
to bet, where they don't have to do that as
much during the regular season. Maybe they have to do
it in the big, big games, but typically not going
to do it on like the majority of the games
that I would be betting, which is probably not the
sort of like biggest game on the board. So yeah,
I think that's an interesting point. And these games should
be really tough to bet, let's put it that way.
The Sweet sixteen, any any game the rest of the
way should be very difficult to like find a big
time edge.
Speaker 2: So I think it's it's worked out. Well.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm very randomly had an I think sort of
randomly had an amazing betting runs since March Madness started.
Some of that is luck, and I bet way too much.
Speaker 1: I mean, you were calling you, you were calling final
scores on Twitter over the weekend.
Speaker 2: Just look it up.
Speaker 3: Now, I've made sixty two wagers in selection Sunday. That's
too many.
Speaker 2: Wait, that's pretty awesome though.
Speaker 1: Hey, I mean listen, some of them are are in
the n I, so you know there's probably a little
bit of a bigger edge there. Hey, we get the
Crown coming up next week, quick promo. We will be
doing shows. I believe Rob Bino will be back. We
will have a Crown preview show, so that'll be coming
up next week. So hey, listen, three years ago, one
of the best, one of the best betting runs I
ever had occurred during March Madness. Sometimes, I mean, and
then if once you see if you're seeing the ball
go through, you're hitting your shot, you might as well
just keep firing, right You're not gonna get to again
until November, so there's no you know, might as well
unload the clip right now if they're if they're falling
for you. So with that being said, Matt, we are
using your total from yesterday, since you know the parlay yesterday. Hey, actually,
maybe you do have action on your parlay yesterday. That's
great if you got four or four and a half
with Wichita State. But for the sake of the show,
we're gonna count yesterday's as a loss because when we
were on the show, Wichita was still three and a half.
And so well, we will open the three teamer with
your game for tonight. So if you are looking for
a bet for tonight, we did a whole show yesterday
on the n I T. We've already broke these games down,
but we are going to use Matt's and I T play,
which is gonna be Illinois State dayton Now, my question
to you is this, it's moved a little bit since yesterday.
Can we go my can we go over one forty?
Is that still okay for that one?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 1: So we're gonna go Illinois State Daton over one forty
as leg number one. That what is your best bet
of the Sweet sixteen? Give us leg number.
Speaker 3: Two right here, it's on the screen right now.
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, so we're going right back to that.
So we got two totals in here, So that is
gonna be over one thirty nine and a half Illinois Houston. Yeah,
I mean, just we we just talked about that game,
and I'm looking at there's one forties out there, but yeah,
I think one thirty nine and a half. There's still
enough of them where that's a that's a fair number
for that game. So two totals, and guess what, even
though we disagreed a lot on this show today, we're
probably gonna agree on my leg because I am going
back to yesterday's show and I'm gonna use Yukon on
the money line as the third leg of our parlay.
We broke this game down completely. It's such a good
matchup for Yukon. I wore my Yukon jacket. I know
Joey Cheese is watching this show. I know he's like,
I couldn't have been more anti Yukon the past couple weeks.
But you know what, that is the great part about
being a sports better and not a fan. We just
get to change our mind and decide we're gonna ride.
We can be anti a team all year, and as
soon as the market swings or there's a matchup, we
can just go right back to the other team.
Speaker 2: I love this matchup for Yukon. We talked about it yesterday.
Speaker 1: It is I think as good of a matchup as
Yukon could have asked for of any of the teams
remaining pretty much at this point, and I think they're
gonna win. So I'm gonna put the money line in there.
Which will I think we probably I think my one
twenty five is probably fair. I'm seeing one and a
half most places, so that will be our three teamer
for the show. Yukon on the money line minus won
twenty half. What excuse me? You count on the money
line minus one twenty five? Houston, Illinois. You could tell
I've been doing shows for like two hours now. My
brain is like fried. We did the Baseball Show Anyone
Interested in Baseball? We did our first episode of Total
Bases earlier, so you can check that out myself.
Speaker 2: Tokyo Brandon Brian Leonard.
Speaker 1: Okay, one more time, Yukon moneyline minus one twenty five, Houston,
Illinois over one thirty nine and a half, and then
tonight Illinois State Dayton over minus one forty. I got
it out. That's the three teamer that before we close out.
Anything else you want to add that we didn't touch.
Speaker 3: On, there's no other games. We've really hit it all.
Speaker 2: We have hit it all.
Speaker 1: We've done all twelve games over the last two days. Again,
I'll say again yesterday's show. If you are looking for
Duke Saint John's Michigan State, Yukon, and then the two
NI games Auburn, Nevada, Illinois State Dayton, those are all
broken down in full on yesterday's show. Head on over
to the wager Talk YouTube channel for that replay. While
you're over there, like and subscribe. I'll put you on
the spot one more time before we sign off. Who
wins this tournament? Is there is there some way you're
leaning more than others? Is there someone that's undervalued that
you want to target? Who's your chance?
Speaker 3: I think if you want to go undervalued, I mean
we talked about Illinois Houston. I think if you know
who wins that game, you have an underrated national champion
because I think the two best teams in the country
are Michigan and Arizona, but only one of them can
make the National championship game. And Duke is definitely a
little bit exposed right now with their short rotation and
how they've struggled in the first half of their games.
And I don't think Nebraska or Iowa can be either
Houston or Illinois. So if you know who's gonna win
that game, I think Illinois. I think that there's value
in Illinois. If you think Houston's gonna win, I think
there's value in Houston, because there is Maybe I would
say there may be plus The winner of that game
is plus one fifty to make the National Championship game,
in which case you got a lot of value.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I could get down with that.
Speaker 1: I think if you put me on the spot similarly,
I probably would have made the same case for Houston
and for a lot of those points. So I think
the thought process right there absolutely makes sense. Guys, if
you're in survivor pools, your brackets, whatever you got going,
good luck with that. Again, we have now hit all
twelve games. You've got six of them today, go back
for yesterday's show, the other four tonight's in IT games,
and then the two East Region games are on there.
Huge shout out to Matt for filling in this week
while Robino is on tour. I saw a bunch of
the Wager Talk went to the show out in Vegas
last night. I was super jealous of that. His son's
band is awesome, And yeah, we will if you're if
again Total Bases tomorrow at nine am and the rest
of the week, and then we will be back for
more college basketball stuff on Saturday on Last Call to
preview the Elite Eight.
Speaker 2: I will be with Kelly and Vegas on Last Call
to do that. Guys.
Speaker 1: We've appreciated you guys all season tuning in and the
likes and the subscribes and all the comments, So thank
you so much for sort of rocking with us all season,
and Full Corp Press will be back in some capacity
next week.
Speaker 2: So this is not the last show, but we'll you.
Speaker 1: Know, we're running out of games to talk about, Matt,
so we're getting toward the end.
Speaker 2: It's been a great season. Again.
Speaker 1: You can find Matt on Twitter at Matthew Winnick. And
on Basket under Review, so check him out there. He
did a full preview for the South region, so if
you're looking for more thoughts there, that's up on the
basket review page.
Speaker 2: We are out. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you
guys next time.